棕榈油周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 美生柴提振国内油脂 棕榈油震荡收涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨50收于4062林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.25%；棕榈油09合约涨96收于8472元/吨，涨幅1.15%； 豆油09合约跌58收于7944元/吨，跌幅0.72%；菜油09合约 涨141收于9607元/吨，涨幅1.49%；CBOT美豆油主连涨1.92 收于54. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upward. The main reason was that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized the comprehensive management of the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development path, which greatly boosted market confidence. The supply side remained weak with a significant drop in Xinjiang's operating rate, limited recovery in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season, and some device shutdowns in Inner Mongolia and Gansu. On the demand side, polysilicon prices rebounded but with limited transactions; silicon wafer prices continued to decline but might be supported by the rebound of upstream silicon materials; photovoltaic cell manufacturers had a very low operating rate and produced according to orders, and prices might stabilize; the component market had few new orders this month, and prices were chaotic. The "anti - involution" meeting was expected to improve the supply - demand balance of the component market in the long - term. The industrial chain was expected to remain weak in the short - term but improve in the long - term. Social inventory rose to 552,000 tons last week, and the spot market rebounded with the boost of the financial and economic commission meeting [2][5][8]. - Overall, the "anti - involution" meeting of the financial and economic commission emphasized the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, boosting market sentiment. China's photovoltaic industry chain might undergo a long - term structural transformation. The supply - demand balance of the downstream component market was expected to improve. The industrial chain prices were expected to remain weak in the short - term but improve in the long - term. Technically, the futures price had basically completed bottom - building and entered a stable upward stage, and was expected to continue the upward trend in the short - term [2][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | July 4th | June 27th | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 7980.00 | 8030.00 | - 50.00 | - 0.62% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 8750.00 | 8150.00 | 600.00 | 7.36% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 8500.00 | 8100.00 | 400.00 | 4.94% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9050.00 | 8700.00 | 350.00 | 4.02% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10450.00 | 10400.00 | 50.00 | 0.48% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 30.00 | 1.00 | 3.33% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.2 | 54.2 | 1 | 1.85% | 10,000 tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro Aspect**: The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held the second - quarter regular meeting in 2025. The meeting was more positive about the economic situation compared with the first - quarter meeting, but also emphasized difficulties such as insufficient domestic demand, low - level and continuous operation of prices, and many risk hidden dangers. The main tone of moderately loose monetary policy remained unchanged, and the central bank would continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance [6]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: As of July 4th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 72,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.98%. The total number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon was 228, and the overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 28.9%. Among them, the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased to 93, a month - on - month decrease of 3; in Yunnan, it was 30, a month - on - month increase of 13; in Sichuan and Chongqing, it was 39 in total, a month - on - month increase of 3; in Inner Mongolia, it was 27, the same as the previous month. On the demand side, polysilicon prices rebounded but with limited transactions; silicon wafer prices continued to decline but might be supported by the rebound of upstream silicon materials; photovoltaic cell manufacturers had a very low operating rate and produced according to orders, and prices might stabilize; the component market had few new orders this month, and prices were chaotic. The "anti - involution" meeting was expected to improve the supply - demand balance of the component market in the long - term [6][7]. - **Inventory Aspect**: As of July 4th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 552,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts of the exchange continued to decline. As of July 4th, the warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped to 51,700 lots, equivalent to 258,000 tons. After the exchange issued new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts meeting the new standard were actively registered and stored, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory had weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. Industry News - The 15th manufacturing enterprise symposium of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focused on accelerating the high - quality development of the photovoltaic industry. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology would strengthen macro - guidance and industry governance, and help enterprises solve problems. Since 2024, the central government has paid increasing attention to "involution - type" competition. The Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting on July 1st pointed out that it was necessary to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with the law, guide enterprises to improve product quality, and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity. In addition, domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises planned to cut production by 30% starting from July [9]. Relevant Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, weekly production in main production areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon spot prices, and organic silicon spot prices [11][12][13][14][15][16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices rebounded at the beginning of the year due to pre - holiday restocking by downstream players. After the holiday, new - energy vehicle terminal sales declined, lithium salt production climbed rapidly, inventory accumulated, and prices dropped. In June, production contracted, material factories restocked, and policies released positive expectations, leading to a price rebound [3]. - In the second half of the year, the fundamental situation of supply - demand weakness remains unchanged, and prices are expected to continue to decline under the logic of oversupply. However, the advantage of hedging for lithium salt plants disappears, the pace of upstream capacity clearance is expected to accelerate, and there may be frequent disruptions on the supply side. The domestic macro - environment has not improved significantly, and the resilience of power terminal consumption is questionable. The heat of the energy - storage market may continue in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policy risks. Overall, prices may continue to decline, but the downward path may not be smooth [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate prices fluctuated downward based on fundamental logic, with staged rebounds driven by market expectations of marginal fundamental corrections. By May 31, the maximum decline of the 09 contract in the first half of the year was about 25.26% [8]. - Before the Spring Festival, pre - holiday restocking pushed up prices. After the holiday, weak terminal consumption and increased production led to price drops. In March, trade barriers intensified the decline. In May, trade negotiations led to a small rebound, followed by another decline. In June, factors such as factory shutdowns, restocking by downstream players, and short - term profit - taking by short - sellers led to a price rebound [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cost Center Moves Down, Lithium Resource Exploration at Home and Abroad Accelerates - Lithium prices and associated ore prices declined, with different rates. Imported lithium spodumene concentrate prices fell from $747/ton at the beginning of the year to $644/ton on June 30, a decline of about 13.79%. Lithium mica prices declined more slowly, from 1,310 yuan/ton to 1,260 yuan/ton, a decline of about 3.82% [11]. - Lithium ore imports remained high, and import channels became more diversified. From January to May, the total import volume of lithium concentrate was 291.94 tons, with an increasing trend. Australia was still the main source, accounting for about 53.1%, while African imports increased, accounting for about 36.57% [12]. - Australian mines have abundant resources, but the incremental expectation is slowing. In the first quarter of 2025, the total production of lithium concentrate was about 800,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 6.98%. The weighted average cost decreased from $399.41/ton in Q4 2024 to $359.66/ton [13]. - African mines have limited incremental production this year but strong potential in the long term. Some mines are already at full - capacity production, and some new projects are in the process of ramping up production [14]. - Domestic resources are on the verge of development. Some domestic mines have started production or obtained mining licenses, and technological innovation has reduced the cost of extracting lithium from mica [14]. 2.2 Capacity Growth Slows, Supply Clearance Expected to Accelerate - Lithium salt capacity growth slowed down. From the beginning of the year to May, capacity increased from 1.963 million tons to 2.1486 million tons, an increase of about 9.45%, much lower than the 19.22% growth rate in the second half of 2024. Some projects have stopped construction [17]. - By June 27, the total production of lithium carbonate was about 409,300 tons. Production in Jiangxi and Hunan, mainly from mica - based lithium extraction, increased significantly, while production in Sichuan, mainly from spodumene - based extraction, was relatively stable. Salt - lake lithium extraction in Qinghai and Xinjiang also increased [17]. - From January to May 2025, lithium carbonate imports were 100,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 15.32%. Chile was the main source, accounting for about 66.52%. Some overseas salt - lake projects are ramping up production, and the proportion of low - cost lithium salt is expected to increase [20]. - Some domestic companies have capacity expansion or new - project plans. In the future, the clearance of high - cost capacity is expected to accelerate, but supply disruptions may occur frequently [21]. 2.3 Positive Electrode Material Market Expected to be Stable - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Prices declined. Power - type lithium iron phosphate prices dropped from 35,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 32,300 yuan/ton on June 30, a decline of about 9.01%. Energy - storage type prices dropped from 33,250 yuan/ton to 31,100 yuan/ton, a decline of about 6.46%. Capacity growth slowed down, but production and operating rates increased slightly. New capacity is shifting towards high - compaction products [28]. - **Ternary Cathode Materials**: Prices fluctuated. The price of 5 - series ternary materials increased from 130,100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 138,400 yuan/ton on June 30, an increase of about 6.38%. The price of 8 - series materials increased slightly by about 0.14%. The increase in cobalt prices drove up the cost. Capacity growth was slightly positive, and production and operating rates were higher than last year. New capacity is moving towards high - nickel ternary materials [29][30]. 2.4 Terminal Consumption Resilience Questionable, Policies Force Car Manufacturers to Reduce Production Schedules - **Domestic Market**: From January to May, new - energy vehicle production was about 5.701 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 45%, and sales were about 5.606 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 44%. New - replacement subsidies drove consumption, accounting for about 30.49% of total sales in the first half of the year. However, if subsidies are excluded, 2025 consumption is similar to 2024. In the future, consumer willingness may be limited, and policies may pressure car manufacturers' cash flows and production schedules [32][33]. - **Overseas Market**: In Europe, from January to April, new - energy vehicle sales were about 1.1312 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 23.32%. In the US, from January to May, sales were about 647,900 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 8.87%, and the market penetration rate declined. In the future, European carbon - emission policies may slow down the electrification process, and US tax - incentive policies may change [34]. 2.5 Warehouse Receipt Inventory May Be a Drag, No Industry - Driven De - stocking Expected - In the first half of the year, lithium carbonate inventory increased from 61,623 tons at the beginning of the year to 110,305 tons on June 27. Market inventory increased more significantly than factory inventory, indicating increased hedging demand during price declines. In the second half of the year, supply - demand growth is expected to slow down, and the decline in warehouse receipts may reduce inventory, but there is no expectation of industry - driven de - stocking [38]. 3. Conclusion - **Cost and Supply**: Lithium ore resources are abundant, and low - cost Australian mines have an advantage. Overseas and domestic exploration is progressing well. Supply oversupply is expected to continue, but capacity clearance may accelerate, and supply disruptions may occur frequently [41]. - **Consumption**: The resilience of power - terminal consumption is questionable, and the impact of growth - stabilization policies needs to be observed. The energy - storage market may remain hot in the third quarter, and the "rush - to - export" trend depends on foreign trade policies. Overall, prices are expected to decline under the logic of oversupply, but the downward path may not be smooth [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 23 to close at 1048.25 cents per bushel, a 2.24% increase; the September soybean meal contract rose 8 to close at 2954 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to 2820 yuan per ton, a 0.27% increase; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 38 to 2597 yuan per ton, a 1.48% increase; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 80 to 2490 yuan per ton, a 3.32% increase [4]. - The US soybeans fluctuated and rose during the week, mainly due to the passage and signing of the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US. The provisions related to biodiesel tax will ban the use of raw materials outside North America for the production of 45Z tax credits for biofuel production, which is beneficial to expanding the demand for US soybean oil. Soybean meal is constrained by the expectation of loose supply, and the spot price is under pressure with limited rebound space. The Dalian soybean meal fluctuated narrowly at a low level during the week, mainly limited by the near - term supply pressure and supported by the expectation of tight supply in the long - term. The rapeseed meal in Canada is generally stronger than soybean meal due to less precipitation in the rapeseed production area [4][7]. - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the US is beneficial to increasing the demand for US soybean oil and supporting the strength of US soybeans. The cumulative precipitation in the production area in the next two weeks is slightly higher than the normal level, but there is an expectation of less precipitation in the Midwest from the 13th to the 20th. Continuously monitor the weather changes. The less precipitation in the Canadian rapeseed production area and poor soil moisture support the rapeseed meal. The domestic soybean meal is still in the process of inventory accumulation, and the overall spot supply is loose. The soybeans for the October - December shipping schedule in China have not been purchased yet, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter. Although there are signs of easing in Sino - US economic and trade relations recently, there may be repeated situations. Pay attention to the procurement dynamics of US soybeans. In addition, a report on the adjustment of the new - year US soybean balance sheet is about to be released. Wait for the guidance of the report. Overall, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data | Contract | July 4 | June 27 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1048.25 | 1025.25 | 23.00 | 2.24% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 465.00 | 456.00 | 9.00 | 1.97% | US dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 448.00 | 449.00 | - 1.00 | - 0.22% | US dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 96.10 | 62.29 | - 158.40 | | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 2954.00 | 2946.00 | 8.00 | 0.27% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2597.00 | 2559.00 | 38.00 | 1.48% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 357.00 | 387.00 | - 30.00 | | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2820.00 | 2800.00 | 20.00 | 0.71% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | - 134.00 | - 146.00 | 12.00 | | Yuan per ton | [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US Department of Agriculture's end - of - June report was released, with a mix of bullish and bearish factors, overall neutral. The US soybean planting area in 2025 is 83.4 million acres, slightly lower than market expectations. One reason is the concern about Sino - US trade frictions, and US farmers switched to other crops. Another reason is that there was excessive precipitation in the non - core southern regions of the US, the sowing progress was slow, and some areas abandoned sowing, resulting in a slight decline in the planting area. The quarterly inventory as of June 1 was 1.008 billion bushels, slightly higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels. The large quarterly inventory suppresses the near - term contracts, while the long - term contracts are supported by the decline in the area [8]. - According to the USDA crop growth report, as of the week of June 29, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67%, the same as the previous week and lower than 67% in the same period last year. As of that week, the emergence rate of US soybeans was 94%, compared with 90% in the previous week, 94% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 95%. As of that week, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 17%, compared with 8% in the previous week, 18% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 16%. The pod - setting rate of US soybeans was 3%, the same as in the same period last year and a five - year average of 2%. As of the week of July 1, about 8% of the US soybean planting areas were affected by drought, compared with 12% in the previous week and 9% in the same period last year. The weather forecast shows that in the next 15 days, the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production area is generally slightly higher than the average level, but there is an expectation of reduced precipitation from July 13th to 19th [8][9]. - As of the week of June 26, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current year increased by 462,000 tons, compared with 403,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export sales of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year were 49.94 million tons, with a sales progress of 99.2%, compared with 96.8% in the same period last year. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 year in that week were 239,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 1.588 million tons, compared with 1.376 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - The USDA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in May 2025 was 6.11 million tons, compared with 6.07 million tons in the previous month and 5.75 million tons in the same period last year. As of now, the cumulative crushing volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 year has increased by 5.84% year - on - year, generally in line with the annual expectation [9]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in the US was $2.42 per bushel, an 8% decrease from the previous week. For reference, the average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $263.10 per short ton, equivalent to $6.12 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 53.78 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.35 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.31 per bushel, compared with $10.66 per bushel a week ago [10]. - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimates that Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 13.93 million tons, up from the previous expectation of 13.83 million tons. The StoneX institution raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 168.75 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 168.25 million tons [10]. - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.6587 million tons, an increase of 278,800 tons from the previous week and 1.0002 million tons more than the same period last year. The soybean meal inventory was 691,600 tons, an increase of 182,700 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 361,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The unfulfilled contracts were 3.323 million tons, a decrease of 795,600 tons from the previous week and 784,000 tons less than the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.088 million tons, an increase of 255,000 tons from the previous week and 1.0141 million tons more than the same period last year. As of the week of July 4, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in China was 165,740 tons, including 49,980 tons of spot trading and 115,760 tons of forward trading, compared with an average daily trading volume of 140,180 tons in the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 187,670 tons, compared with 195,700 tons in the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.3322 million tons, compared with 2.4878 million tons in the previous week. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 7.91 days, compared with 7.75 days in the previous week [11]. 3. Industry News - Data released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that the amount of soybean oil used for biofuel production in the US in April dropped to 829 million pounds. In March, the amount of soybean oil used for biodiesel production was 832 million pounds. Soybean oil remains the largest biodiesel raw material in the US [13]. - The Agricultural Economics Institute of Mato Grosso State announced that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso State from June 23rd to 27th was 472.58 reais per ton, compared with 493.39 reais per ton in the previous week. During that week, the soybean meal price in the state was 1537.75 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5757.33 reais per ton [13]. - Data from the Rosario Grain Exchange in Argentina shows that in the first six months of this year, Argentina exported a record 64.5 million tons of grains and their derivatives, and the export volume in June also broke the monthly export record. Exporters rushed to export before the increase in export tax rates for many key agricultural products on July 1 [13]. - According to foreign media reports, the Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) expects the soybean planting area in India this year to decrease by about 5%. The association said that this is mainly because many farmers switched to other alternative crops such as corn, red millet, and cotton, as soybeans had poor returns due to low market prices in the past two consecutive years. SOPA Executive Director DN Pathak said: "The overall decline may be around 5%, but a better estimate can only be obtained after sowing is completed." The association said that the soybean planting area last year was about 11.748 million hectares [14]. - According to foreign news, data released by the Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Fisheries and Food of Argentina shows that as of the week of June 25, Argentine farmers sold 1.6793 million tons of 2024/25 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 23.8259 million tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 1.1031 million tons, and the export industry purchased 576,200 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 49,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 264,400 tons. During that week, local oil mills purchased 49,900 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total sales of soybeans of all years in that week were 1.7866 million tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 64.7278 million tons. As of June 25, the cumulative export sales registration volume of 2024/25 soybeans was 5.691 million tons, and that of 2025/26 soybeans was 0 tons [14]. - Data released by the Canadian Grain Commission shows that as of the week of June 29, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed increased by 47.16% from the previous week to 173,500 tons, compared with 117,900 tons in the previous week. From August 1, 2024, to June 29, 2025, the export volume of Canadian rapeseed was 9.1055 million tons, a 50.91% increase compared with 6.0339 million tons in the same period of the previous year. As of June 29, the commercial inventory of Canadian rapeseed was 1.2112 million tons [15]. - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said in its weekly crop report that Argentina has completed the 2024/25 soybean harvest, with a final output of 50.3 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared with the previous year [15]. 4. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rate trends, management fund CBOT net positions, soybean meal weekly average daily pick - up volume, etc., which visually show the price trends, trading data, and crop growth - related data of soybeans and soybean meal [16][18][24][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The "Great Beauty Act" was passed, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increased market uncertainty. After the better - than - expected non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut weakened [3]. - On July 3, the "Great Beauty Act" was passed in the House, and Trump signed it into law. It provides greater fiscal flexibility but raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and debt risks. The approaching tariff suspension deadline on July 9 intensifies concerns about global trade prospects [3]. - The US June non - farm data was 147,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the report, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September in the interest rate futures market dropped from 98% to about 80% [3]. - Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut decreased, the tax - cut bill and the approaching tariff suspension deadline add new uncertainties, and short - term precious metal price fluctuations may increase [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE Gold closed at 777.06 yuan/gram, up 8.42 yuan (1.10%), with a total trading volume of 175,040 lots and a total open interest of 178,255 lots [4]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 771.57 yuan/gram, up 7.42 yuan (0.97%), with a total trading volume of 39,244 lots and a total open interest of 220,656 lots [4]. - COMEX Gold closed at 3336.00 dollars/ounce, up 49.90 dollars (1.52%) [4]. - SHFE Silver closed at 8919 yuan/kilogram, up 127 yuan (1.44%), with a total trading volume of 522,479 lots and a total open interest of 634,627 lots [4]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8885 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan (1.80%), with a total trading volume of 415,618 lots and a total open interest of 3,258,756 lots [4]. - COMEX Silver closed at 37.04 dollars/ounce, up 0.88 dollars (2.42%) [4]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The "Great Beauty Act" became law, and the approaching tariff negotiation deadline on July 9 increases uncertainties. The better - than - expected non - farm data weakened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][6]. - The EU is trying to reach a "principled" trade agreement with the US before the deadline, and Japan plans to send its chief trade negotiator to the US again this weekend [7]. - This week, focus on the end of the US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period on July 9, the 17th BRICS Leaders' Summit, the release of the Fed's monetary policy meeting minutes, and Fed officials' speeches [7]. 3. Important Data Information - US June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the probability of a September Fed rate cut dropped to about 80% [9]. - US June ADP employment decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, and service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 [9]. - US May job openings increased from 7.4 million to 7.769 million, exceeding expectations, and lay - offs decreased [9]. - US June ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 49, still in the contraction range, with new orders decreasing for five consecutive months and inflation showing signs of acceleration [9]. - US June ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.8, slightly higher than expected, with business activities and orders rebounding but the employment index contracting [10]. - US May factory orders increased by 8.2% month - on - month, the largest increase since 2014 [10]. - US May trade deficit increased by 18.7% month - on - month to 71.5 billion dollars, with imports down 0.1% and exports down 4% [10]. - Eurozone June CPI rose 2% year - on - year, reaching the ECB's target, and ECB officials said the rate - cut cycle is in the final stage [10]. - Eurozone June manufacturing PMI reached 49.5, the highest since August 2022, with new orders stabilizing and export orders stopping falling [10]. 4. Related Data Charts - Gold ETF total holdings were 947.66 tons on July 4, 2025, down 7.16 tons from last week [11]. - Ishares Silver ETF holdings were 14,868.74 tons on July 4, 2025, up 2.55 tons from last week [11]. - The report also includes various charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial positions, and correlations of precious metals and related economic indicators [14][16][18][21][25][26][30][32][35][37][42]

钢材周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 内外政策影响 钢价偏强反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 ⚫ 宏观面：中央财经委员会召开第六次会议，研究纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设、海洋经济高质量发展等问题。 会议强调，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，规范政 府采购和招标投标、招商引资，着力推动内外贸一体化 发展，持续开展规范涉企执法专项行动。美国总统特朗 普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南对美出口商品将被征 收20%关税，任何转运货物将被征收40%的关税。另外， 越南已同意取消对进口美国商品的所有税费。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量221万吨，环比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade protection, the global economic downward pressure persists. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots tends to be loose, while the demand faces insufficient momentum in traditional consumption sectors and a slowdown in the growth rate of emerging consumption sectors. The degree of supply - demand surplus expands. It is expected that the zinc price center will gradually decline under pressure in the second half of the year, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher. If the macro - economy deteriorates significantly, the zinc price may seek support from the mine cost [4][94][96]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Review - In the first half of the year, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend in the oscillation center. In the first quarter, due to concerns about tariff increases and the strong US dollar, combined with the Spring Festival holiday in China, the zinc price was weak. In March, the price stabilized and rebounded and oscillated around 24,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to unexpected US tariffs, the zinc price hit a new low in the first half of the year, then stabilized and rebounded. By June 30, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.96% from the beginning of the year. The London zinc price also showed a downward trend in the oscillation range, closing at 2,741 US dollars/ton on June 30, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the year [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Situation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed signs of a slowdown, with inflation potentially rising in the future. The Fed was cautious about interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy will further suppress economic growth. The "Big Beautiful Act" may ease the economic decline to some extent but may also lead to secondary inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times to relieve the economic slowdown pressure, and the US dollar index is in a downward channel in the medium - to - long term [11][12]. 2.2 Eurozone Situation - In the first half of 2025, the Eurozone economy showed a mild recovery. The European Central Bank's continuous interest rate cuts stimulated investment and real - estate demand, and net exports increased. Inflation continued to decline. In the second half of the year, the Eurozone economy faces both opportunities and challenges. Although there is still room for interest rate cuts, the threat of tariffs may limit economic growth, and inflation may rebound [13][14]. 2.3 China's Situation - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed resilience, with stable GDP growth. Policies focused on implementing existing measures. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may slow down, with exports, consumption, and manufacturing investment facing challenges. However, infrastructure investment will remain stable, and the annual GDP growth target is still expected to be achieved [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Turns from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, the global zinc concentrate supply increased. Overseas, new projects climbed production smoothly, and some mines resumed production and increased production. In China, although the cumulative output from January to May decreased year - on - year, it is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The annual global increment is expected to be 55 - 600,000 tons [30]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Rise Significantly, and Zinc Ore Imports Remain High**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, processing fees have rebounded. By June 2025, the average monthly domestic and foreign processing fees increased significantly. In the second half of the year, there is still room for growth, but the growth rate may slow down. From January to May 2025, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports increased by 52.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year [35][36]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas Smelters Have a Mixture of Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disruption Risks Remain**: From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Overseas smelters had a mixture of production cuts and restarts. Due to high costs, there is a risk of production cuts in overseas smelters [41]. - **Refined Zinc Supply Recovers Strongly from January to June, and the Zinc Ingot Import Window Closes Again**: From January to June 2025, China's refined zinc production increased year - on - year. It is expected to maintain a high level of 550,000 - 600,000 tons per month in the second half of the year. The annual output is expected to reach 6.6 million tons, an increase of 6.84% year - on - year. The import of zinc ingots decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [47][48]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas Terminal Consumption Shows a Mixed Picture, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook Is Uncertain**: In the first half of 2025, the global refined zinc demand decreased slightly year - on - year. In the US, the real - estate market was weak, and the auto market may slow down in the second half of the year. In the Eurozone, the real - estate market showed signs of improvement, and the auto market had a mixed performance [57][58][59]. - **Initial - Stage Enterprises' Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline, and Galvanized Steel Exports Remain Strong**: The operating rates of initial - stage enterprises followed the seasonal pattern. In the second half of the year, the operating rates are expected to decline in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter. Galvanized steel exports were strong in the first half of the year but are expected to decline in the third quarter and stabilize in the fourth quarter [72][73]. - **Policy Support Increases, and Terminal Consumption Is Differentiated**: In the traditional consumption sector, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the real - estate market will continue to bottom out, the auto market will maintain good momentum, and the home - appliance market will face internal sales slowdown pressure. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic market may slow down, while the wind - power market is expected to maintain high growth [74][77][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory First Increases and Then Decreases**: In the first half of the year, the LME inventory continued to decline from a high level. In the second half of the year, it is expected to remain at a high level with a narrowing decline. The domestic inventory was at a relatively low level. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure to increase inventory in the third quarter, and it is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [92]. 4. Summary and Outlook - In the second half of the year, the global zinc concentrate supply may accelerate, and the annual increment will exceed 500,000 tons. The supply of refined zinc is expected to remain high, while the demand faces downward risks. Overall, the supply - demand surplus will expand, and the zinc price is expected to decline gradually, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher [94][96].

锌周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 累库缓慢兑现 锌价震荡偏弱 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，美越关税协议达 成，美欧关税谈判取得进展，同时美国大美丽法案通过， 国内官方 PMI 数据环比回升，且供应侧改革预期升温，宏 观情绪偏好。但周五公布的 6 月非农就业数据超预期，美 联储 7 月降息预期减弱，美元企稳，锌价上方压力略增。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，此前因罢工停 ...

铅周报 2025 年 7 月 7 日 消费预期较好 铅价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价延续强势。宏观面看，特朗普关税 谈判取得一定进展，同时大美丽法案通过，国内 6 月 PMI 数据环比回升，市场情绪偏好，美元延续弱势， 利多铅价。 要点 基本面看，原料端的供需缺口未有改善，内外铅精矿 加工费维持低位，尤其是进口矿，负加工费问题突出， 且随着炼厂 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices retreated from their highs. Trump's plan to impose tariffs on countries without trade agreements and strong non - farm payrolls in the US led to concerns, a rebound in the US dollar, and a cooling of the expectation of early interest rate cuts this year. The increase in LME inventory eased the squeeze - out sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will correct to confirm support in the short term [2][3][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - LME copper decreased from $9,879/ton on June 27th to $9,852/ton on July 4th, a decline of 0.27%. COMEX copper dropped from 512.5 cents/pound to 506.25 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.22%. SHFE copper fell from 79,920 yuan/ton to 79,730 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.24%. International copper decreased from 71,250 yuan/ton to 70,990 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36%. The LME spot premium dropped from $240.67/ton to $95.35/ton, a decrease of 60.38%. The Shanghai spot premium increased from 110 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [4] - Total inventory increased from 445,288 tons on June 27th to 465,300 tons on July 4th, a rise of 4.49%. LME inventory increased by 4,000 tons (4.38%), COMEX inventory increased by 11,673 short tons (5.58%), SHFE inventory increased by 3,039 tons (3.73%), and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 1,300 tons (2.06%) [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices retreated from highs due to Trump's tariff plan, strong non - farm payrolls, and an increase in LME inventory. Fundamentally, overseas concentrate remained tight, and the low domestic inventory provided support. The total global inventory rebounded, which restricted the upward movement of copper prices [8] - Macroscopically, Trump's tariff plan raised market concerns. Strong non - farm payrolls boosted the US dollar and dampened the metal market. The US manufacturing industry was in a downturn with inflation risks. China's central bank maintained a moderately loose monetary policy [9] - In terms of supply and demand, the spot TC remained at - 44 dollars/ton. Some mines in Peru faced road blockades, and domestic refined - copper production was restricted. Demand from the power grid and new - energy vehicles was stable, and the domestic market was in a tight - balance state [10] 3. Industry News - In May, Chile's copper production reached 486,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%. The country approved a law to shorten the mining project approval time [12] - Mines in Peru, such as Las Bambas and Constancia, faced road blockades by non - regular miners, interrupting concentrate transportation [13] - The Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama has shipped over 33,000 tons of copper concentrate, but the hope of resuming mining this year is slim [14] - The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China increased. The transaction volume in the East China market improved slightly, while that in the South China market did not improve significantly. The operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in mid - July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventory, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, including the trends of LME copper price, LME inventory, global visible inventory, etc [19][22][26][30][36][42]