Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fundamentals: Material factory production increased slightly month-on-month, but downstream receiving was weak, and downstream inventory only increased slightly after excluding exchange warehouse receipts. Sellers actively raised prices, and there was a large difference in the acceptance of high-priced lithium between upstream and downstream. Lithium salt production remained high, and high-frequency output was close to the previous high, and price increases drove upstream复产 [4]. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rise in the futures price, the price of lithium ore strengthened [4]. - Futures: Affected by the low level of exchange warehouse receipts and various market information disturbances, lithium prices mostly rose from low levels but were blocked near new highs. Open interest first increased and then decreased, and the candlestick chart showed a doji structure several times, indicating obvious differences between bulls and bears. The KDJ sensitivity line weakened, with the fast line crossing below the slow line, indicating a weakening expectation [4]. - Later view: The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may回调. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Imported lithium ore (1.3%-2.2%): The price increased from $110/ton to $113/ton, a change of $3.00 and a change rate of 2.73% [6]. - Imported lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6.00 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Domestic lithium concentrate (5.5%-6%): The price increased from $644/ton to $650/ton, a change of $6 and a change rate of 0.93% [6]. - Spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate: It increased from 6.33 million yuan/ton to 6.43 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 1.58% [6]. - Spot price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.05 million yuan/ton to 0.00 million yuan/ton, a change of -6.05 million yuan and a change rate of -100.00% [6]. - Main contract price of lithium carbonate: It decreased from 6.37 million yuan/ton to 6.29 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.08 million yuan and a change rate of -1.22% [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles): The price remained unchanged at 5.80 million yuan/ton [6]. - Battery-grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles): The price decreased from 6.32 million yuan/ton to 6.30 million yuan/ton, a change of -0.02 million yuan and a change rate of -0.32% [6]. - Total lithium carbonate inventory: It increased from 103,436 tons to 120,032 tons, a change of 16,596 tons and a change rate of 16.04% [6]. - Lithium iron phosphate price: It increased from 3.06 million yuan/ton to 3.20 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.14 million yuan and a change rate of 4.58% [6]. - Lithium cobalt oxide price: It increased from 20.90 million yuan/ton to 21.00 million yuan/ton, a change of 0.10 million yuan and a change rate of 0.48% [6]. - Ternary material price (811): The price remained unchanged at 14.45 million yuan/ton [6]. - Ternary material price (622): The price remained unchanged at 12.65 million yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Regulatory and delivery: As of July 11, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,603 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 64,020 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2509 was 322,900 lots [8]. - Supply side: As of July 11, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 18,158 tons, an increase of 465 tons from the previous period. Driven by high prices, some high-cost production capacities have planned to resume production, and the in-production capacities are operating actively, so supply is expected to remain abundant [8]. - Import: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month-on-month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month-on-month decrease of 3%. In June, the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was about 14,600 barrels, of which about 10,000 tons were shipped to China, a month-on-month increase of 6%. Overall, although the shipment volume of lithium carbonate from Chile to China increased slightly month-on-month, it remained at a low level. In May, the import of lithium ore was about 605,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.9%. The import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, while the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% [9][10]. - Demand: - Downstream cathode materials: As of July 11, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 69,684 tons, the operating rate was 61.8%, and the inventory was 39,200 tons, a decrease of 396 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,830 tons, the operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. Overall, the production of cathode materials increased month-on-month. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate decreased while its operating rate increased, indicating that the lithium iron phosphate market was slightly stronger than the ternary material market. However, from the perspective of processing fees, there was no obvious improvement in both lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, and the supply-demand contradiction was not prominent, and price fluctuations were more affected by lithium prices [11]. - New energy vehicles: From July 1 to 6, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 135,000, a year-on-year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a month-on-month decrease of 11%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.583 million, a year-on-year increase of 37%. The sales growth rate of new energy vehicles weakened in the first week of July. The shortage of subsidy funds may gradually drag down demand. Although the export of new energy vehicles has improved recently, the expected export to Europe may weaken due to the deadlock in China-EU trade negotiations. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the United States was finally approved, which will eliminate government subsidies for US residents to purchase new energy vehicles after September 30. The price competition among car companies to stimulate consumption may gradually subside, and the inventory cycle of raw materials and finished products of car companies is expected to shorten, which will suppress the production intensity of vehicle manufacturers. Overall, there is no obvious incremental expectation on the demand side from terminal consumption to inventory management of car companies [12]. - Inventory: As of July 11, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 120,032 tons, an increase of about 9,059 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 34,416 tons, a decrease of about 517 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 85,616 tons, an increase of about 9,576 tons from the previous period; the exchange inventory was 11,603 tons, a decrease of 9,433 tons from the previous week. Although the spot inventory increased significantly, the increase mainly came from the outflow of exchange warehouse receipts. After subtracting the outflow of warehouse receipts, the spot inventory was relatively stable, indicating that the demand performance was acceptable [13]. This Week's Outlook - The expected end of emotional disturbances is approaching, and lithium prices may be volatile and weak. As the 07 contract gradually enters the delivery period, the logic of low warehouse receipts and capital behavior may gradually fade, and market sentiment is expected to cool down. The futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, which may stimulate upstream smelters to increase production and hedge, and supply is expected to remain high in the near future. Under the suppression of high lithium prices, downstream receiving willingness is poor, and market transactions were quiet during the reporting period, showing a sharp contrast between hot futures and cold spot markets. The inflated futures price lacks support from the spot market, and a price correction is expected after the emotional cooling [14]. Industry News - Derui Lithium is advancing the completion acceptance of its new production capacity, which has not been put into operation yet. The new production capacity will gradually be released according to sales and orders, and the initial production capacity and product types will still focus on lithium-manganese and lithium-iron primary batteries [15]. - Ganfeng Lithium's 20,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Inner Mongolia successfully produced trial products, marking a key progress in the construction of the first county-level complete lithium battery industrial chain in Inner Mongolia [15]. - Premier African Minerals restarted the Zulu lithium project in Zimbabwe after improving the recovery rate and grade of spodumene concentrate [15]. - A lithium ore deposit with 490 million tons of lithium ore was discovered in the Jijiaoshan mining area in Hunan. The project has started the construction of mining, beneficiation, and smelting [15]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of lithium carbonate futures prices, battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices, imported lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, and other related data [17][18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: After the expiration of the tariff exemption in July, Trump significantly upgraded tariffs on multiple countries. From August 1st, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on goods from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods will be raised to 35%; and a unified 30% tariff will be imposed on the EU and Mexico. Additionally, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027. The overall tariff strategy shows a pattern of "intensive deployment + delayed implementation" to strengthen negotiation chips and the expectation of industrial back - flow. Currently, it has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Tariff disturbances are generally limited. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the increase in risk appetite dominate the market. The US stocks continued to reach new highs, the US dollar index fluctuated and rebounded, and gold strengthened slightly. This week, focus on the US CPI and retail data for June [2]. - Domestic: In June, prices generally showed weak performance. The year - on - year CPI turned positive to 0.1%, and the core CPI slightly rebounded, mainly driven by the rebound of consumer goods such as oil prices. The decline of PPI widened to - 3.6%, reaching a new low in the past two years, significantly affected by the real estate and black - metal sectors, which reflects the necessity of the current policy orientation of optimizing the supply structure and anti - involution. Currently, the domestic market is in a resonance window period with stable external risks, moderate internal economic fluctuations, and continuously rising policy expectations. The optimization of the supply side and the expectation of real - estate policies became the main trading lines last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500 mark. As the index continuously reaches new highs, be vigilant about the callback pressure caused by profit - taking of funds. It is not advisable to chase the high in the short term. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant. Policy expectations and the warming of the stock market suppress the bond market. Currently, interest rates do not have a significant basis for upward movement and lack the momentum to break through the previous low. They will fluctuate in the short term waiting for a catalyst. This week, focus on China's financial, foreign trade data for June and the economic data for the second quarter [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - Trump launched a new round of tariff offensives. Since early July, Trump has intensively announced multiple rounds of country - specific tariff upgrades targeting major trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. From July 7th, the Trump administration successively announced tariff increases on goods from multiple countries, including 25% - 40% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods was raised to 35% due to USMCA implementation issues; and a unified 30% tariff on the EU and Mexican goods, with August 1st set as the unified effective date, forming a concentrated pressure situation. The tariff measures show the characteristic of "chipping" with the intention of structural industrial protection, which has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Most of these tariffs have a grace period for implementation, reflecting the strategy of "tariffs for negotiation" to prompt other countries to make concessions on trade rules and manufacturing investment. Trump also proposed to raise the benchmark of reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 15 - 20% and announced a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027 to promote the back - flow of the domestic high - end manufacturing industry. An investigation was launched on copper imports and a 50% tariff is planned to be imposed. Currently, Canada has chosen to postpone counter - measures to争取 a negotiation window, and the EU plans to jointly counter US tariffs with Canada and Japan [5]. Domestic Macro - In June, prices were weakly running. The CPI and PPI weakened as expected. The year - on - year CPI was 0.1%, the core CPI was at a high for the year, and the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year, and the core CPI moderately recovered. The decline of food prices eased, and beef prices started to rise after a two - year decline, while pork prices changed from rising to falling. The decline of non - food prices narrowed, and the downward pressure on energy prices weakened. The decline of industrial products intensified, with oil and non - ferrous metals being relatively strong and black metals being relatively weak. The PPI's internal price - rising momentum remained weak [8][9]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The A - share market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3510.18, up 1.09% from the previous week, with a monthly increase of 1.91% and a year - to - date increase of 4.73%. The performance of overseas stock markets varied. The US stocks generally rose, while the Japanese stock market declined. The South Korean stock market had a significant increase, with a year - to - date increase of 32.35% [12]. - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally rose slightly last week. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 3.49BP, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.05BP. Overseas, the yields of US and European bonds also generally rose [16]. - Commodity: The commodity market generally rose last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.01%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.20%. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, while copper prices declined [18]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose last week, up 0.91%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose slightly, while the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the RMB declined [21]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides data on domestic high - frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities, and second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities [23]. - Overseas: The report provides data on overseas high - frequency indicators such as Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment insurance claims, US Treasury yield spread inversion, and FedWatch interest rate change probability [25][26]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events to be released this week, including China's trade balance, export and import growth rates, and GDP data for June; the US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data for June; and the eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and CPI data [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon continued to rebound. The main reason is that relevant national departments will focus on comprehensively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry, promoting the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity, and focusing on accelerating the high - quality development of the industry. All links in the industrial chain are expected to achieve capacity transfer and profit repair. The supply side remains in a tight state, and the demand side shows that the installation volume of photovoltaic ground power stations may slow down significantly in the third quarter. Technically, the futures price has confirmed the bottom support and its center of gravity is gradually moving up, and it is expected to show an upward rebound trend in the short term [2][5][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Data | Contract | July 11 | July 4 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8415.00 | 7980.00 | 435.00 | 5.45% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8850.00 | 8750.00 | 100.00 | 1.14% | Yuan/ton | | Non - Oxygen - Blown 553 Spot | 8650.00 | 8500.00 | 150.00 | 1.76% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9200.00 | 9050.00 | 150.00 | 1.66% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10200.00 | 10200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 10800.00 | 10450.00 | 350.00 | 3.35% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 31.00 | 31.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.1 | 55.2 | - 0.1 | - 0.18% | Ten thousand tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply Side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang is maintained at around 50%, the operating rate in Yunnan has rebounded to over 30% during the wet season, and the output in Sichuan is relatively low. The supply side remains in a tight state [2][5][8]. - **Demand Side**: In July, the start - up of polysilicon has not changed significantly, and some crystal - pulling factories only maintain low inventories. The silicon wafer price is supported by the upstream silicon material price, and the production schedule in July will decrease by 10% month - on - month. The operating rate of photovoltaic cell manufacturers is extremely low, and market demand has weakened significantly. The component market is cautious about price adjustment and prefers to keep prices stable. Driven by the anti - involution policy, manufacturers have no intention to continue the strategy of trading volume with price. The leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to jointly cut production by 30% in response to the policy. The social inventory last week was maintained at 551,000 tons, and the spot market is gradually stabilizing and rising under the pull of the policy [2][5][8]. - **Macro - aspect**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.7% year - on - year, reaching a 14 - month high. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month, with the decline further expanding. The decline in PPI is mainly due to the seasonal decline in the prices of some domestic raw material manufacturing industries, the decrease in traditional energy prices driven by the increase in the proportion of green power industries, and the pressure on the prices of some industries with a high export proportion. However, with the in - depth promotion of the establishment of a national unified market, the year - on - year decline in the prices of some industries will narrow. The establishment of a long - term mechanism to promote consumption and the expansion of relevant policies to boost consumption will drive the prices of some durable goods and necessities to bottom out and rebound. The pursuit of high - quality industries will drive the prices of some high - tech industrial products to continue to rise [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was maintained at 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons month - on - month. The increase in social inventory is mainly due to the weak demand in the off - season. The registered warehouse receipts at the exchange continued to decline. As of July 11, the warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease to 50,200 lots, totaling 251,000 tons. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard, most of the 4 - series warehouse receipts cannot be re - registered due to excessive titanium content. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard are actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored is increasing day by day, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened recently due to the continuous decline in domestic production [7]. 3.3 Industry News - **Renewable Energy Policy**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in 2025 and related matters. The 2025 renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight is a binding indicator, and provinces will be assessed accordingly. The 2026 weight is an expected indicator. The calculation of the completion of the renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight in each province is mainly based on the actual physical electricity consumption in the provincial administrative region, supplemented by the purchase of green certificates from other provinces through the provincial green certificate account. The completion of the green power consumption ratio in key energy - consuming industries is mainly calculated based on green certificates. In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry will be assessed, while the steel, cement, polysilicon, and new data centers in national hub nodes will only be monitored [9]. - **Aixu Co., Ltd.**: Benefiting from the increase in both volume and price of BC components and cost control, Aixu Co., Ltd. is expected to turn losses into profits in Q2 this year. In the first half of the year, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was between - 170 million and - 280 million yuan. Combining the Q1 financial data, the company achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of about 20 million to 130 million yuan in Q2. The company optimized its product structure, and the sales of ABC components were booming. The overseas sales proportion increased significantly, and the overall gross profit margin continued to improve. The premium of BC products is an important reason for the improvement of gross profit. In terms of cost control, the unit production cost of the production base has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year and is approaching the level of mainstream competitors in the industry. In the future, the production cost is expected to be lower than that of TOPCon components [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts including industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory at the exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of various industrial silicon grades, etc., but specific data analysis is not provided in the text [12][13][15][17]

氧化铝周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 关注库存变化 氧化铝偏好震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 矿端近期进口和国产矿表现都相对较稳，几内亚 雨季影响尚在继续，但由于传导至中国港口方面 尚需一定时间周期，近期中国进口矿到港情况暂 无过多变化。供应端氧化铝供应较前期有所增多。 上周部分提产的企业产量增量陆续体现，氧化铝 供应有所增多。但多数企业以执行长单为主，加之 部分企业焙烧炉阶段性检修导致提货困难，局部 地区氧化铝现货仍旧偏紧，氧化铝开工产能9320 万吨，开工率为81.18%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Trump's second - round tariffs added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil, causing the Brazilian real to fall nearly 3%. The EU is negotiating with the US to cut tariffs and set quotas. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the "US Treasury issuance wave" risk eased, leading to a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield and a weakening of the US dollar index [1]. - Domestically, in June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, and core CPI rebounded. PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council issued a document to strengthen "stable employment". The economy is in a stage of mild and narrow - range fluctuations and policy expectation fermentation. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was significant [2]. - For precious metals, the second wave of tariff letters affected the market. Gold prices were supported by trade tensions but restricted by the high - level US dollar index. The precious metals market is currently lack of strong driving forces and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][4]. - In the copper market, Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but pressured Shanghai copper. The Fed's decision on interest rate cuts is still uncertain, and the short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5][6]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to the increase in supply and the start of the consumption off - season. Alumina shows a short - term strength, but its long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [7][8][9]. - Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak with stable supply and weak demand. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10][11][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term under the influence of supply contraction and new policies. Steel prices are expected to rebound with a warm market sentiment, while iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [14][16][18]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's new tariff policy added eight countries, with a 50% tariff on Brazil. The EU is negotiating with the US. The Fed's June minutes eased market concerns, and the 10Y US Treasury yield fell to 4.33%, the US dollar index weakened, and gold prices rose [1]. - Domestic: In June, CPI turned positive year - on - year to 0.1%, core CPI rebounded, and PPI's decline widened to - 3.6%. The State Council strengthened "stable employment" policies. A - shares opened higher and closed lower, and the stock - bond seesaw effect was obvious [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Wednesday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.17% to $3322.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.61 per ounce. The market is focused on trade negotiations, and the precious metals market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3.3 Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper's main contract fell sharply, while London copper remained volatile at a high level. Trump's plan to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper boosted US copper prices but may harm the US economy. The short - term volatility of US copper is expected to increase [5]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Wednesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20515 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. London aluminum closed at $2602 per ton, up 0.97%. Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upside space due to supply increase and consumption off - season [7]. 3.5 Alumina - On Wednesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3130 yuan/ton, up 2.15%. The spot market is currently favorable, but the long - term upside is restricted by the expected oversupply [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract fluctuated narrowly during the day and strongly at night. Zinc prices are supported by the weakening US dollar, but the fundamentals are weak [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Wednesday, Shanghai lead's main contract recovered part of its gains during the day and closed higher at night. Lead prices lack strong upward momentum due to limited demand improvement [11]. 3.8 Tin - On Wednesday, Shanghai tin's main contract recovered after hitting the bottom during the day and fluctuated narrowly at night. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate sideways in the short term due to weak fundamentals [13]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply is weak, and the demand is improving slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [14]. 3.10 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Wednesday, steel futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is warm, but the supply - demand contradiction is slowly accumulating. Steel prices are expected to rebound with fluctuations [16]. 3.11 Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. The market sentiment is boosted by policies, and the supply pressure is reduced. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. 3.12 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Palm Oil) - For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans fell, and the short - term trend is expected to fluctuate. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, waiting for the MPOB report [19][20][21]. 3.13 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on July 9, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver [22]. 3.14 Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the price changes and inventory data of various metals from July 8 to July 9, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and precious metals [23][24][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, higher than market expectations, cooling the expectation of an interest rate cut this year. The US "Big and Beautiful" Act restricts the 45Z tax credit to North - American sourced raw materials, and the EPA's proposed policy boosts the use of vegetable oil in biodiesel, expanding US soybean oil demand. Brazil raised the biodiesel blending ratio from 14% to 15% in June 2025. Indonesia's B40 policy is partially completed, and it plans to implement the B50 plan in early 2026. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, supply - demand is expected to tighten [3][42]. - India's palm oil imports in June reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase. China's cumulative palm oil imports from January to May were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average of 1.17 million tons. With the arrival of ships from May - June, inventory increased, but there are fewer purchases after July. US soybean crop ratings are good, domestic soybean arrivals are increasing, soybean oil supply is sufficient, and rapeseed oil is at a high level and in a slow destocking phase [3][42]. - The US June non - farm data exceeded expectations, cooling the interest rate cut expectation. Trade policy uncertainty may exacerbate market volatility. Although Israel and Iran signed a cease - fire agreement, geopolitical risks still exist and may impact oil prices. In the third quarter, during the production - increasing season, the supply - demand double - increase pattern may limit the upside, with overall oscillatory operation. In the fourth quarter, entering the seasonal off - peak, combined with the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the implementation of biodiesel support policies in relevant countries, the price center may rise [3][43]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Review of the Oils and Fats Market - In the first half of 2025, palm oil prices shifted from a decline to an oscillatory range, with the overall price center moving down. From January to February, prices first declined due to the non - implementation of Indonesia's B40 policy and high - price suppression of demand, then rose due to post - Spring Festival restocking and India's Ramadan备货 demand. In March, prices oscillated, influenced by both negative and positive factors. In April, US tariff policies and concerns about the economy, along with the entry of the production - increasing season, dragged down prices. From May to June, there was no obvious driving factor, and the market fluctuated. From mid - June, prices rose due to geopolitical conflicts and the US biodiesel policy, then retreated and entered an oscillatory phase [8][9]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1. MPOB Report - In May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.77 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 69,000 tons; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; and the ending inventory was 1.99 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase. Reuters' survey predicted that in June 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory would be 1.99 million tons, a 0.24% decrease from May; production would be 1.7 million tons, a 4.04% decrease; and exports would be 1.45 million tons, a 4.16% increase [14]. 3.2.2. Malaysian Palm Oil Production and Exports - In June 2025, according to SPPOMA, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 0.65%. MPOA estimated a 4.69% decrease in production from June 1 - 30. UOB predicted a 3% - 7% decrease in production by the end of June. Different institutions' data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to May [17][18]. 3.2.3. Indonesia's Situation - In April 2025, Indonesia's palm oil production was 4.9 million tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Exports were 1.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Domestic consumption was 2.1 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The inventory was 3.05 million tons [23]. 3.2.4. India's Vegetable Oil Imports - In May 2025, India's vegetable oil imports were 1.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase. Palm oil imports were 590,000 tons, a month - on - month increase. In June, palm oil imports reached 953,000 tons, a 61% month - on - month increase [26][28]. 3.2.5. China's Oils and Fats Imports - From January to May 2025, China's cumulative palm oil imports were 730,000 tons, far below the five - year average. Cumulative rapeseed oil imports were 1.025 million tons, and cumulative sunflower oil imports were 228,000 tons. The cumulative imports of the three major oils were 1.983 million tons [35][37]. 3.2.6. Domestic Oils and Fats Inventory - As of the week of June 27, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.22 million tons, an increase from the previous week and the same period last year. Soybean oil inventory was 955,200 tons, palm oil inventory was 537,400 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory was 727,400 tons [39]. 3.3. Summary and Outlook for the Future - The report reiterates the factors mentioned in the core viewpoints, including the US economic situation, biodiesel policies in different countries, production and inventory changes in Malaysia and Indonesia, and import situations in India and China. It points out that in the third quarter, the market may oscillate, and in the fourth quarter, the price center may rise [42][43].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250709 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：铜、药、半导体关税将至，A 股反弹接近前高 海外方面，美国"软数据"继续修复，6 月纽约联储一年期通胀预期降至五个月低点 3%， 居民裁员担忧减轻。关税加征与谈判节奏趋稳，市场避险情绪缓解，美国财长与日本首席谈 判代表通话，或于下周访日。特朗普宣布拟加征铜关税 50%，药品关税最高达 200%，制药 业获 18 个月调整缓冲期，半导体关税即将公布，对欧盟关税信函或将两日内发出。商务部 长卢特尼克称，将在未来两天发出 15–20 封关税信函，铜关税最快 7 月下旬生效。美元指 数回升至 97.7，10Y 美债利率站上 4.4%，美股震荡走平，金价回吐涨幅下破 3300 点位，铜 价受关税消息影响，美铜一度飙升 16%，伦铜则跌超 2%。 国内：A 股放量上涨，上证指数逼近 3500 关口，两市成交额回升至 1.47 万亿，风格上 创业板、科创 50 表现占优，行业上光伏、电池、多元金融板块领涨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's new tariff measures have triggered risk aversion in the market, with the US stock market falling, the US dollar index rising, and gold prices rebounding while copper prices weakening [2]. - The domestic economic fundamentals continue the pattern of "low inflation, weak recovery", and the A - share market may maintain a pattern of shrinking - volume shock adjustment in the short term [3]. - Due to the uncertainty of tariffs, the prices of precious metals may fluctuate more significantly in the short term, and the prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, and other metals may face downward pressure in the short term [4][6][8]. - The prices of industrial silicon and lithium carbonate may enter a shock pattern in the short term, and the price of nickel may be weakly volatile [15][17][19]. - The oil price is in a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the steel price and iron ore price may be in a shock pattern [20][21][23]. - The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and palm oil may be in a shock pattern in the short term [24][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: Trump signed an executive order to postpone the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9 to August 1 and notified 14 countries of significant tariff increases. The market risk - appetite declined significantly, the US stock market fell nearly 1%, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.38%, and the US dollar index showed strength [2]. - Domestic: The economic fundamentals continue the "low - inflation, weak - recovery" pattern. The A - share market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment, and the bond market is affected by supply - side issuance increments and real - estate policy expectations [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices recovered their decline due to Trump's tariff increase on Japan and South Korea. COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. Tariff uncertainty may increase short - term price volatility [4][5]. Copper - The price of copper fell from a high level due to tariff disturbances. The domestic electrolytic copper spot market was inactive, and the LME inventory rebounded. The US tariff increase on Japan and South Korea and other factors may lead to a short - term correction of copper prices [6][7]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices adjusted from a high level due to tariff concerns and an increase in warehouse receipts. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, and short - term prices may be under pressure [8][9]. Alumina - Alumina prices were in a strong - biased shock. The spot prices at home and abroad rebounded, and the futures warehouse - receipt inventory decreased. However, supply surplus and rigid consumption may limit the upward space in the medium term [10]. Zinc - Zinc prices were under pressure due to the rise of the US dollar and accelerated inventory accumulation. The supply was stable and at a high level, and downstream orders were insufficient in the off - season [11]. Lead - Lead prices had limited corrections supported by the expectation of improved consumption. Although there was an expectation of inventory accumulation, the overall inventory level was not high [12]. Tin - Tin prices corrected from a high level. The supply increased marginally as refineries resumed production, and the downstream was in the off - season with insufficient purchases at high prices [13][14]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices were in a narrow - range shock. The supply side was weak, and the demand side was mixed. Policy support enhanced market sentiment, but the weak fundamentals may limit the upward trend [15][16]. Carbonate Lithium - Lithium prices may correct in the short term. The price increase boosted supply, the market inventory continued to accumulate, and the spot market was relatively cold [17][18]. Nickel - Nickel prices were weakly volatile. The tariff exemption period was approaching, and the macro - level was uncertain. The cost pressure of nickel - iron plants was not relieved, and stainless steel was sluggish [19]. Crude Oil - Oil prices were weakly volatile. The geopolitical risk was gradually subsiding, and OPEC +'s production - increase plan was accelerating, but the peak consumption season supported the current fundamentals [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel prices were in a shock pattern. The supply - demand data was stable, and the contradiction between supply and demand was slowly accumulating. The market was affected by Trump's tariff measures [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices were in a shock - adjustment pattern. The arrival at ports increased, and the overseas shipment decreased. The demand from blast furnaces in Tangshan was weakening [23]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal may be in a shock pattern. The US soybean crop rating was good, and the domestic soybean meal inventory increased. The trade concern re - emerged [24][25]. Palm Oil - Palm oil prices were relatively resistant to decline. The trade concern re - emerged, and the export of Malaysian palm oil increased in the early days of July, providing support on the demand side [26][27]. Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the trading data of various metal futures contracts on July 7, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests [28]. Industrial Data Perspective - The report shows the industrial data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, and other metals, such as inventory, warehouse receipts, spot prices, and price differentials [30][33][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The IMF has lowered the global economic growth rate forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, and trade policy uncertainty will disrupt the global supply chain. The Fed may be cautious about the timing of interest rate cuts, while the ECB may end the easing cycle. China will continue to implement an expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of the year [4]. - In terms of supply, the global copper concentrate supply growth rate is expected to be only 1.7% in 2025 and further decline to 1.4% in 2026. The global refined copper supply growth rate will drop to 2% in 2025. In the second half of the year, domestic small and medium - sized smelters may face production cut risks, and the release of new global refined copper production capacity will be significantly limited [4]. - In terms of demand, copper has become a key strategic reserve resource in the context of global AI and electrification transformation. The global refined copper consumption growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2025, and the domestic growth rate will be 3.4% [4]. - The copper price center is expected to continue to rise in the second half of this year, with the risk of periodic high - level corrections due to overseas macro disturbances. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The main operating range of SHFE copper is expected to be 77,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper is 9,500 - 10,500 US dollars/ton [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the First - Half Market in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, copper prices showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. In the first quarter, SHFE copper rose from a low of 73,000 to 83,000 due to supply concerns and macro - economic factors. In the second quarter, prices fluctuated due to trade policy uncertainties, and then rebounded after the Sino - US trade negotiation [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased. The spot premium changed from discount to premium. In the second half of the year, domestic refined copper spot premium is expected to remain in the premium range, with the center of premium moving up [13]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 Global Trade Situation Eases, and the US Economy Faces Stagflation Risks - The IMF has lowered the economic growth forecasts of major economies in 2025. The Sino - US trade negotiation has reached a preliminary consensus, but the tariff measures after the 90 - day suspension period are uncertain. The US economy has the risk of stagflation, while the eurozone economy shows a weak recovery [15][16]. 2.2 The Fed's Interest Rate Cut Expectations Rise, and the ECB May Slow Down the Rate - Cutting Pace - The Fed may have 1 - 2 small interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting in September. The ECB cut interest rates in June. The future monetary policies of both central banks will be affected by trade policies and economic data [17][19]. 2.3 Strengthen the Domestic Circulation System, and the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Remains Moderately Loose - China's economy faced challenges in the first half of the year. The central bank implemented a series of measures to support the economy. China's economy showed resilience in the first half, and the economic structure is expected to continue to optimize in the second half [21][22]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis 3.1 The Global Concentrate Shortage Exceeds Expectations, and Chinese Enterprises Actively Explore Copper Ore Resources - In the first half of 2025, both Chinese and foreign capital accelerated the development of copper resources. However, the output of major mines was affected by various factors, and the shortage of copper concentrates is expected to exceed market expectations in 2025 - 2026 [25][27]. 3.2 The Global Copper Concentrate Growth Rate in 2025 is Expected to Drop to 1.7% - The planned global copper ore supply increment in 2025 is 115.5 million tons, but the actual increment is expected to be 70 - 80 million tons, with a growth rate dropping to 3%. Considering major interference factors, the actual supply growth rate in 2025 is expected to be only 1.7% and further decline in 2026 [31][33]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis 4.1 Domestic Refined Copper Production Will Slow Down in the Second Half of the Year, and the Annual Year - on - Year Growth Rate May Drop to 4.5% - In the first half of 2025, domestic refined copper output was high, but more than 30% of smelters cut production to some extent. The actual output increment may be significantly lower than expected, and the annual growth rate is expected to slow down to 4.5% [41][43]. 4.2 The Release of Overseas Refined Copper Production in 2025 is Very Slow - Overseas new refined copper smelting capacity in 2025 is only 62 million tons, and the actual output is quite limited. The actual increment is expected to be about 15 million tons [45][46]. 4.3 Refined Copper Imports Will Remain at a Low Level in the Second Half of the Year, and Copper Has Become a Strategic Resource in the Great - Power Game - From January to May 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year. In the second half of the year, imports are expected to remain at 25 - 28 million tons per month, and the annual imports will drop significantly compared with last year [48][49]. 4.4 Domestic Scrap Copper Supply is Generally Stable, and Southeast Asia May Fill the Gap in US Scrap Copper Imports - From January to May 2025, China's scrap copper imports decreased slightly year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, with Southeast Asian imports filling the gap left by the US [66][69]. 4.5 LME Inventories Plummeted by More Than 70% in the First Half of the Year, and the Tight - Balance Reality Has Lowered the Global Inventory Center - As of June 27, global visible inventories decreased significantly. LME inventories are at a low level with a risk of squeezing, while COMEX inventories are rising. Domestic inventories are expected to remain low in the second half of the year [73][75]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis 5.1 This Year's Grid Investment Scale is Expected to Exceed 800 Billion, and the New UHV Grid System is Upgrading at an Accelerated Pace - The planned grid investment in 2025 is expected to reach 825 billion, with an increase of 220 billion compared with 2024. The copper consumption growth rate in grid investment is expected to be 3 - 4% [77]. 5.2 The Real Estate Market is Bottoming Out, and the Real Estate Regulation Policies are Intensifying - The real estate market showed a decline in the first five months of 2025, but the price decline margin narrowed. The market is expected to gradually recover in the second half of the year, with a slight decline in copper consumption growth rate [78][80]. 5.3 The "Two New" Policies Drive the Accelerated Production and Sales of Air - Conditioners - From January to May 2025, air - conditioner production and sales increased year - on - year. However, due to various factors, the production scale may be adjusted in the third quarter, and the export may decline [81][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the nickel market was characterized by a bearish fundamental outlook, with frequent policy disturbances leading to periodic price rebounds. The macro - economic expectations were volatile, but nickel prices were largely desensitized. - In the second half, the U.S. economic outlook remains unclear with stagflation risks. Domestically, policies focus on supply, lacking determination to improve consumption. In the industry, Indonesia and the Philippines aim to control nickel mines, and the nickel ore market may not ease this year. The nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak market reality and strong cost pressure. - It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will trade between 115,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton in the second half of the year, and LME nickel will fluctuate between 14,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [3][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - Half Review - In the first half of 2025, the bearish fundamental logic prevailed. Overseas policy disturbances were frequent, such as the Philippines' plan to ban nickel ore exports and Indonesia's series of policies on mineral resources. Trump's global tariff policy in April led to a spread of pessimistic expectations. In June, the cancellation of the Philippines' nickel ore export ban and Indonesia's increase in RKAB nickel ore approvals, along with weak consumption, accelerated the decline of nickel prices [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 United States - In the first half, the U.S. faced stagflation risks. The real GDP in Q1 was - 0.5%, affected by increased imports and weakened personal consumption. Inflation showed a complex trend, with the CPI rising slightly in May. Fiscal support boosted residents' consumption, but the "Big and Beautiful" bill may impact residents' income. The tariff policy was implemented, and trade negotiations were slow [13][14][15]. - In the second half, tariffs and crude oil may support high inflation, while weak consumption may drag down economic growth [16][17]. 2.2 China - In the first half, the domestic labor market improved, with the unemployment rate decreasing and fiscal personal income tax increasing. Social consumption showed some recovery, but there was a lack of strong autonomous consumption. Corporate profits improved with structural differentiation, and private - sector industrial enterprises performed better [18][19]. - In the second half, the situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to policy directions [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Policy Disturbances and Nickel Ore Shortage - In the first half, overseas nickel ore resources were scarce. The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore rose by 23.53%. The Philippines attempted to ban nickel ore exports, and Indonesia increased policy intervention. China's nickel ore imports decreased from January to May, and port inventories were lower than seasonal levels [23][24][25]. 3.2 Sufficient Supply and Resource Flow to LME - In the first half, domestic pure - nickel production increased significantly, with new production capacity coming online. Pure - nickel imports mainly came from Russia and South Africa, and exports increased, with resources flowing to the LME. The proportion of LME Asian warehouse resources increased [27][28]. 3.3 Nickel Iron: First Rise then Fall with High Cost Pressure - In the first half, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased. The profit of nickel - iron plants first rose then fell. China's nickel - iron imports mainly came from Indonesia. In the second half, new production capacity will be put into operation, but demand may remain weak, and prices may oscillate at a low level [30][31]. 3.4 Stable Sulfuric Acid Nickel Price with Limited Consumption Growth - In the first half, domestic sulfuric acid nickel production decreased slightly, and imports increased slightly. The price first rose then fell. In the second half, consumption may not improve significantly due to weak demand expectations [33]. 3.5 Low - Level Stainless Steel Consumption and Slow De - stocking - In the first half, stainless - steel prices fluctuated with the real - estate market. Production increased, but inventory remained high. In the second half, the fundamental situation may remain weak, and trade policies may provide short - term support [35][36]. 3.6 Doubtful Terminal Consumption Resilience and Policy - Driven Car - Manufacturer Production Cut - In the first half, domestic new - energy vehicle production and sales increased, mainly driven by subsidy policies. In the second half, domestic demand may be affected by the end of subsidies and corporate cash - flow pressure. Overseas, the growth of new - energy vehicle consumption in Europe and the U.S. may slow down [39][40][41]. 3.7 Excess Resources Flow Outward, and Domestic Inventory Remains Stable - In the first half, pure - nickel inventory first increased then decreased, with resources flowing to the LME. In the second half, due to narrowed export profits, domestic inventory may increase [43][44]. 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The export window remains open, keeping pure - nickel supply at a relatively high level (neutral). - Demand: The real - estate market continues to bottom out, and new - energy consumption lacks independent driving force, resulting in limited demand growth (neutral). - Cost: Nickel ore shortage due to policy pressure provides strong cost support (bullish). - Macroeconomics: The U.S. stagflation expectation persists, and domestic deflation pressure may continue (bearish). Overall, the nickel price will oscillate due to the game between weak reality and strong cost [45].