投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数持续走弱，A 股持续放量走强 海外方面：特朗普称美伊下周或会谈，宣称停火是"所有人的胜利"，后续中东冲突影 响或将边际减弱，美联储下任主席及降息节奏成为市场关注主线。特朗普：已有三到四位候 选人可能接替鲍威尔担任下任美联储主席（前美联储理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈 塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒以及美国财政部长贝森特）。北约各成员国同意将国防开支目标 提升至 GDP 的 5%，虽有望在 2035 年前带动数万亿美元防务投资，但欧洲多国债务高企， 目标落地仍存不确定性。隔夜美元指数下探至 97.6、创下本轮贬值新低，美债利率回落至 4.27%，美股窄幅震荡，铜、油、金小幅反弹。 国内方面：A 股再度放量上涨，两市成交额回升至 1.64 万亿，风格上北证 50、双创板 块表现强劲，行业上金融、军工板块领涨，沪指突破年内高点，股指波动率显著上升，市场 情绪持续升温。本轮上涨缺乏事件、基本面改善驱动，更多由技术面与 FO ...

商品日报 20250625 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 宏观：金油回吐地缘溢价，国内股市放量上涨 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面：以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，地缘风险继续缓解，推动市场焦点重新转向下 半年美联储降息节奏：①鲍威尔国会听证上表示，当前可"有条件等待"，美联储正在评估 关税对经济的影响，利率政策可延后再决策；②偏鸽官员博斯蒂克表态更偏鹰，称暂无降息 必要，预期年内或仅降息一次、幅度 25BP。资产价格方面，自 6 月 13 日以色列空袭伊朗以 来的油价涨幅已全部回吐，金价回调逾 1%，美股延续强势修复，美债收益率回落至 4.3%， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，关注本周五参议院对"美丽大法案"的关键投票。 国内方面：上证指数重返 3400 点上方，两市成交额回升至 1.45 万亿，风格上北证 50、 创业板、微盘股表现强劲，行业上汽车零部件、金融板块领涨，市场风险偏好继续走强，放 量驱动下股指加速上行。央行公告 6 月 MLF 续作 3000 亿，资金维持宽松，一级市场需求偏 弱、股 ...

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 关注霍尔木兹海峡通行情况 氧化铝成本支撑或受巩固 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周矿端供应保持稳定，不过周末伊朗方面将封 锁霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡，如果影响运输，几内 亚进口铝土矿绕行，则运输成本将上行。供应端广 西有氧化铝企业由于矿石原因减产一条生产线， 减产产能50万吨。整体开工产能较前有所下降。消 费端电解铝产能小增，但对后市氧化铝价格看法 谨慎，采购长单执行为主。现货市场货源增量有 限，交易所仓单库存上亦继续减少，周内仓单减少 3.7万吨至4.3万吨，厂库300吨，持平。 ⚫ 整体，短时地缘因素导致的运输成本或将给到矿 价支持，氧化铝下方成本支撑 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 以伊冲突升级，金价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 黄蕾 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格小幅回调而收跌。主要因为美国总统特朗 普延迟决定是否介入以色列与伊朗间的军事冲突，缓和了 短期避险情绪。另外，上周的美联储会议鲍威尔会后表态 偏鹰，也压制金银价格走势。 ⚫ 6月21日，特朗普宣称美军已完成对伊朗三处核设施的袭 击，并在随后发表全国讲话时表示如果伊朗"不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - China's economy shows a stable and positive trend, with the manufacturing PMI marginally rebounding in May, industrial enterprise profit growth continuing to turn positive, the central bank's 1 trillion yuan outright reverse repurchase maintaining a moderately loose tone, and resilient foreign trade exports. However, the trade war impacts the global supply chain and may exacerbate the stagflation risk in the US economy [4][9][53]. - The supply - side improvement is limited, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 60%, a slight recovery in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and the southwest region approaching the resumption cycle during the wet season. Social inventory shows a slight decline, and the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory is mainly due to the monthly decrease in domestic production [4][53]. - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises enter an active production - cut cycle due to shrinking downstream demand. The silicon wafer market orders are weak, battery enterprises engage in panic selling to reduce inventory, and the component market demand weakens significantly after the end of the rush - installation period. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises' production - cut to support prices has little effect, while the aluminum alloy output and processing fees show a slight increase. It is expected that the demand side will still face downward pressure in June, and the supply - side will passively contract, with the oversupply situation difficult to change. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][55]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 2025 May Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures Price Continues to Reach Bottom**: In May 2025, industrial silicon showed a volatile downward trend. The main 2507 contract traded between 7130 - 8500 yuan/ton, with the price center moving down. The overall sentiment in the photovoltaic industry chain was weak, and the demand faced significant downward pressure. The traditional industries of silicone and aluminum alloy also had weak demand. By May 30, the main 2507 contract closed at 7160 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 16.1% [9]. - **Spot Market Continues to Decline**: By the end of May, the overall furnace - opening rate of industrial silicon decreased to 27.3%. The social inventory decreased slightly to 58.9 tons due to the decline in absolute production in May. The demand in traditional industries and the photovoltaic industry decreased, making it difficult for the supply - side to resume production strongly. The spot prices of mainstream grades such as 553 continued to decline, and it is expected that the prices of domestic mainstream grades will have limited rebound space in June [12][13]. Macroeconomic Analysis - **China's Foreign Trade Exports are Resilient, and Industrial Enterprise Profits in April Accelerate to Turn Positive**: In April, China's total foreign trade export value reached 535.2 billion US dollars, with exports increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner from January to April. The profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.4% year - on - year from January to April, and the equipment manufacturing industry's profit growth was prominent [18][19]. Fundamental Analysis - **Limited Recovery of Northern Production Capacity, and Sichuan and Yunnan are Approaching the Resumption Period during the Wet Season**: In May, the industrial silicon output decreased by 3.6% month - on - month to 305,000 tons. The production capacity recovery in the north was limited, while Sichuan and Yunnan were approaching the resumption time window during the wet season. It is expected that the operating rate of the industrial silicon industry will rebound from a low level in June [21]. - **Expected Stable Export Volume in June**: From January to April, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 216,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. It is expected that the export volume from May to June will remain stable at 60,000 - 70,000 tons [31]. - **High - level Social Inventory in May**: By May 30, the social inventory decreased slightly to 589,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 8.6% month - on - month. It is expected that the social inventory will continue to decline steadily in June [34]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Chain Enters a Contraction Cycle, and Silicone Industry's Price - Cutting to Reduce Inventory Becomes the Mainstream**: In May, the polysilicon output decreased by 4.3% month - on - month, and the prices of silicon wafers, batteries, and components all declined. The silicon wafer market orders were weak, and the component market price reached a new low. The silicone DMC output increased slightly in May, and it is expected that the price will maintain a weak oscillation at a low level. The aluminum alloy output and processing fees increased slightly in May, but it is expected that the output will be difficult to grow significantly in June [36][38][39]. Market Outlook - The macro - economic situation is stable and positive in China, but the trade war impacts the global economy. The supply - side improvement is limited, and the demand - side pressure remains. Industrial silicon is expected to confirm the stage bottom support [4][53][55].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [1][4][6] - In the fundamental aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. With multiple factors at play, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [1][5] - Last week, steel futures showed a fluctuating trend. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2992 | 23 | 0.77 | 7142023 | 3003707 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3116 | 34 | 1.10 | 2406634 | 1488632 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 703.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 2099456 | 678221 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 795.0 | 20.5 | 2.65 | 4896063 | 685871 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1384.5 | 35.0 | 2.59 | 142071 | 54570 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated. Terminal data was poor, with weak supply and demand, and a slight increase in cost support, so steel prices mainly fluctuated. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2920 (+20) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3090 (0) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3200 (+20) yuan/ton [4] - In the macro - aspect, from January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [4] - In the industrial aspect, last week, the output of rebar was 2120000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50000 tons, with a surface demand of 2200000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3250000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons. Overall, last week's industrial data was stable, with both output and surface demand increasing and inventory decreasing. The weak pattern of building materials demand remained unchanged, affected by real estate investment and seasonal weakening of demand, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 110000 tons, indicating strong resilience in the downstream manufacturing industry. Considering the in - depth off - season demand, steel prices are expected to fluctuate under pressure [5] Industry News - From January to May, national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, down 10.0%. Various real estate construction - related data also showed significant declines [6][7] - In May 2025, China's crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; pig iron output was 74.11 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%; steel output was 127.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to May, China's crude steel output was 431.63 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%; pig iron output was 362.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%; steel output was 605.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% [10] - The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, the fourth decision to keep the interest rate unchanged since January. The Fed's dot - plot shows that it is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025 and by 25 basis points each in 2026 and 2027 [10] - In May 2025, the automobile output was 2.642 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.3%; from January to May, the automobile output was 12.757 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.1% [10] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar futures and monthly spreads, the trend of hot - rolled coil futures and monthly spreads, rebar basis trend, hot - rolled coil basis trend, rebar spot regional price difference trend, hot - rolled coil spot regional price difference trend, long - process steel mill smelting profit, short - process electric furnace profit in East China, national 247 blast furnace operating rate, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, rebar output, hot - rolled coil output, rebar social inventory, hot - rolled coil social inventory, rebar factory inventory, hot - rolled coil factory inventory, rebar total inventory, hot - rolled coil total inventory, rebar apparent consumption, and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption [9][11][16]

铅周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 利好边际增加 关注整数突破 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价窄幅震荡。宏观面看，美联储不急 于降息，预计今年降息 2 次，下调明年降息次数为 1 次，美元坚挺，同时美国下场，以伊冲突升级提升避 险需求，风险资产承压。 要点 基本面看，5 月铅精矿及银精矿进口量基本符合预期， 原料维持偏紧，加工费微降。赤峰山金银铅、郴州 ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 中东冲突范围扩大 棕榈油或震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨188收于4115林吉特/吨，涨幅 4.79%；棕榈油09合约涨396收于8536元/吨，涨幅4.86%； 豆油09合约涨370收于8156元/吨，涨幅4.75%；菜油09合 约涨416收于9726元/吨，涨幅4.47%；CBOT美豆油主连涨 3.85收 ...

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 6 月 23 日 上游预期复产 锂价或有新低 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 李婷 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：终端消费增速表现尚可，正极周度排产表现 平稳，终端热度并未有效向上传导，材料厂存在一定补库， 但力度有限。价格反弹后，上游供给明显回暖，库存压力 依然较强，基本面偏弱延续。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，百川口径下的锂辉石价格小幅走弱， 锂云母价格小幅上涨。 ⚫ 盘面上，周一主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices declined slightly due to the low - level rebound of the US dollar, rising risks of economic stagflation in the US, intensified geopolitical conflicts leading overseas capital to flee risk assets, and the Fed's hawkish remarks delaying the interest - rate cut, lacking upward macro - drivers. Fundamentally, major global mines' disruptions continued, non - US visible inventories dropped rapidly, the LME 0 - 3 spread hit a new high this year, and domestic social inventories were low, indicating a shortage of concentrate supply gradually spreading to refined copper supply [2]. - Overall, the low - level rebound of the US dollar pressured risk asset prices, the decline in US retail sales data and the sharp rise in crude oil prices increased the risk of US economic stagflation, and the Fed's hawkish stance dampened market risk appetite. Copper prices are hard to find upward momentum in the short term. Fundamentally, the shortage of global concentrates in the second half of the year may far exceed market expectations, with a significant drop in global visible inventories and continuous depletion of LME inventories. Although the supply side provides strong support, short - term macro factors suppress copper price increases. It is expected that LME copper will show a high - level decline, but the adjustment range may be relatively limited [3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 13th to June 20th, LME copper rose by $13.00 to $9660.50 per ton, a 0.13% increase; COMEX copper rose by 8.25 cents to 483.4 cents per pound, a 1.74% increase; SHFE copper fell by 20 yuan to 77990 yuan per ton, a 0.03% decrease; international copper fell by 30 yuan to 69170 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease; the Shanghai - LME ratio dropped to 8.07; the LME spot premium rose by $201.58 to $274.99 per ton, a 274.59% increase; the Shanghai spot premium rose by 85 yuan to 120 yuan per ton [4]. - In terms of inventory, as of June 20th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 461,393 tons. LME inventory decreased by 15,275 tons to 99,200 tons, a 13.34% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 5,151 short tons to 201,197 short tons, a 2.63% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 1,129 tons to 100,796 tons, a 1.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,700 tons to 60,200 tons, an 8.47% increase [7]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Copper prices declined slightly last week. Overseas macro factors lacked upward drivers for copper prices, while the shortage of concentrate supply gradually spread to refined copper supply. Global visible inventories were low, supporting copper prices. The decline in the Shanghai - LME ratio was mainly due to the weak US dollar last week [8]. - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, lowered the expected US economic growth rate from 1.7% to 1.4%. US retail sales in May decreased by 0.9% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Three European central banks cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The People's Bank of China maintained the one - year and five - year LPR rates [9]. - This week, the spot TC remained at - 45 dollars per ton. Kamo'a significantly reduced its production guidance by 150,000 tons this year. In China, the electrolytic copper output in May was 1.139 million tons, a 12.9% year - on - year increase. However, domestic smelting capacity faced a bottleneck, and some small and medium - sized smelters might cut production. Overseas deliverable supplies flowed to North America, and the domestic tight - balance pattern was hard to break. In terms of demand, power grid investment project tenders were launched, the weekly operating rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and orders of refined copper rod enterprises were abundant. The drag on demand came from the expected sharp decline in photovoltaic installation in May, while emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations [10]. Industry News - In May 2025, China exported 114,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 23.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative export was 595,000 tons, a 25.2% year - on - year increase. In May, China imported 430,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, a 16.6% year - on - year decrease; from January to May, the cumulative import was 2.17 million tons, a 6.7% year - on - year decrease. In May, China imported 2.4 million tons of copper ore concentrates, a 6.6% year - on - year increase; from January to May, the cumulative import was 12.41 million tons, a 7.4% year - on - year increase. From January to May, China's cumulative copper product output was 9.537 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase [12]. - India's Adani copper smelter started processing ore last week. Its initial annual capacity is 500,000 tons, expected to expand to 1 million tons by 2028. It may take 18 months to reach full production, and it needs about 1.6 million tons of copper concentrates per year to operate at full capacity. This year, the gap between the smelter's required concentrates and actual supply may reach 1.2 million tons, the largest in at least a decade [13]. - Vale's Bacaba copper project in Brazil obtained a preliminary environmental permit. It is expected to produce about 50,000 tons of copper per year on average during an eight - year operation period, starting production in the first half of 2028. Vale plans to invest about $290 million in the project. After the news, Vale's New York - listed stock rose 3.4% to $9.77, with a market value of about $42 billion [14]. - Last week, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China rose to 400 - 650 yuan per ton, a 50 - 80 yuan per ton increase. The increase was due to the upward shift of the domestic copper premium center after the contract change and the recovery of terminal demand after the copper price decline. In the East China market, the transaction improved, but the overall delivery progress was not ideal due to poor downstream operation. In the South China market, the transaction changed little, and downstream cable enterprises mostly purchased recycled copper rods [15].