1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro层面，关税扰动贯穿7月，月初市场悲观，随着贸易协定落地、关税调降，市场情绪回暖；美国二季度经济数据有韧性，劳动市场稳健，美联储偏鹰，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [4] - 成本方面，印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿供给趋向宽松，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，但矿价走弱迹象不明显 [4] - 基本面，7月国内不锈钢产量预期大幅收缩，印尼小幅环增但难补国内减量；三元材料产量小幅环增，消费整体走弱；纯镍出口窗口敞开，供给小幅探涨，基本面供增需减边际走弱 [4] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面边际变量对价格影响有限；上旬宏观压力预期强，下旬有不确定性；基本面暂无改善预期，镍价或延续震荡运行 [4][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - 7月沪镍主力合约震荡运行，月初因美国信函关税压力镍价下行，后随贸易协议签署、关税调降而反弹；基本面无明显驱动，供给边际修正，需求边际走弱，现货库存有累库迹象 [9] - 7月精炼镍升贴水高位回落，金川镍升贴水从月初2600元/吨降至7月30日2300元/吨，进口镍升贴水同期从650元/吨降至550元/吨，升贴水回落后维持低位震荡 [11] 3.2 Macro Analysis Overseas: Tariff Turmoil and Fluctuating Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts - 7月上旬特朗普向23个国家发关税信函，关税强度20 - 50，中下旬关税风波缓解，美国与多国签署贸易协议，协议关税低于信函税率；部分国家仍面临高对等关税，新协议落地待观察 [13] - 美国经济数据喜忧参半，6月核心PCE物价指数等显示通胀和消费有韧性，但7月非农就业等数据走弱，劳动力市场有结构性失衡；制造业PMI未延续修正趋势，市场对美联储降息节点预期反复 [14] - 美国居民需求有韧性是经济增长基石，但需警惕关税引发滞涨压力 [15] Domestic: Clear Path to Anti-Involution and Stable Economic Structure - 反内卷政策预期延续，政策框架日益完善，但7月底政治局会议纪要措辞调整引发市场情绪反复，治理内卷路径明确但具体量化目标待明确 [16] - 投资端6月固定资产投资同比增长2.8%，房地产投资占比回落；消费端社零累计同比+5.0%，剔除汽车后增速回落，居民自主消费驱动力不足；出口6月总额同比增长5.64%，关税对出口影响不明确，需警惕转口贸易压力 [17] 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 1. Alleviation of Shortage and Possible Decline in Ore Prices - 印尼、菲律宾气候扰动减弱，镍矿开采效率提升，紧缺格局缓解，印尼镍商会下调镍矿内贸基准价，菲律宾8月镍矿预售成交环比回落，镍矿供给有宽松预期，价格或走弱 [22] - 6月中国镍矿进口量同比回落7.21%，进口自菲律宾占比93.23%；7月25日国内港口库存较6月末大幅累库139万吨 [23] 2. Export Window Remains Open and Supply is Ample - 7月全国精炼镍产量3.28万吨，同比+13.69%，开工率61.08%；冶炼端亏损幅度收窄但仍为负，上游现金流压力或凸显，需警惕下半年供给扰动 [26] - 6月中国进口精炼镍17010吨，同比增长119.71%，进口增量来自挪威，部分国家进口量下滑；出口10143吨，同比-5.66%，7月出口利润回落 [27] 3. Easing Pressure on Ferronickel but Need Time for Correction - 7月高镍生铁价格先跌后涨，10 - 12%高镍生铁到港含税报价月初910.5元/镍点，月中900元/镍点，月底912元/镍点 [30] - 7月中国镍生铁产量环比-0.04%，印尼同环比+28.14%/-1.73%；仅山东火法BF工艺有利润，国内RKEF及EF工艺亏损；国内不锈钢产量7月预期走弱，印尼或增加；国内300系不锈钢库存高位去库不顺畅 [31] - 6月国内镍铁进口同比+50.05%，主要来自印尼；不锈钢进口同比-16.17%，出口同比-15.33%，进出口规模为年内最低 [32] 4. Recovery of the Nickel Sulfate Market and Marginal Improvement in Supply and Demand - 7月硫酸镍价格走势分化，电池级硫酸镍价格从月初28500元/吨降至月末27900元/吨，电镀级硫酸镍价格从28050元/吨涨至28550元/吨 [38] - 5月硫酸镍产量同环比+4.77%/+17.3%，7月三元材料产量同环比+16.7%/+5.8%；高冰镍产硫酸镍工艺利润率3.6%盈利，其他原料工艺亏损；6月硫酸镍进口量约1.32吨，出口782吨 [39] 5. Conservative Policy Expectations and Slowing Consumption Growth - 1 - 6月新能源汽车累计销量同比+40.31%，产量同比+41.37%，产销比近乎持平；7月1 - 20日新能源乘用车零售同比增长23%，较上月同期下降12%，消费增速自6月退坡 [41] - 后期新能源汽车消费面临居民自主消费依赖补贴、补贴资金投放有序及高基数压力，消费或维持增长但数据表现放缓 [42] 6. Bearish Fundamentals and Possible Accumulation of Pure Nickel Inventory - 截至7月25日国内精炼镍社会库存较6月末累库2438吨，7月31日SHFE和LME库存较上月增加，全球两大交易所库存同期增加约5170吨 [44] - 后期纯镍去库曲折，硫酸镍市场热度难延续，冶炼端供给或维持高位，预计纯镍库存将再度累库 [44] 3.4 Market Outlook - 供给方面，出口窗口在，供给或高位稳中偏弱 [47] - 需求方面，钢企不锈钢排产低，新能源消费降速，需求端无亮点，稳中偏弱 [47] - 成本方面，镍矿供给宽松，成本重心下移，中性 [47] - 宏观方面，关税风险反复，上旬压力强，下旬有不确定性，中性 [47] - 后期宏观预期主导，基本面改善预期不明显，镍价或延续震荡运行 [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The global lead market shows a large visible inventory pressure, and the expected increase in supply from new capacity will suppress lead prices. However, the cost support is relatively stable, and the potential production cut expectation caused by refinery losses also provides a bottom - support for lead prices. It is expected that the lead price will fluctuate widely in August, and its upside space depends on the actual improvement in the consumption end [2][72][73]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Lead Market Review - In July, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a volatile decline. Affected by factors such as the passing of the US bill, good domestic PMI data, and the approaching consumption peak season at the beginning of the month, the lead price was firm. In the middle of the month, due to factors like inventory increase and less - than - expected downstream consumption improvement, the lead price adjusted. After the news of some Middle - Eastern countries imposing additional tariffs on lead - battery exports, the lead price decline was magnified. Finally, it closed at 16,735 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.7%. The London lead price first declined and then rose, closing at 1,969.5 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decline of 3.93% [7]. 2. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.8111 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. Overseas mine production showed different year - on - year changes, indicating a slow recovery rhythm. In China, from January to June, the cumulative lead concentrate production was 787,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13%. It is expected that the global lead concentrate supply will continue to recover in the second half of the year, with an expected overseas increase of 100,000 tons and a domestic increase of about 70,000 tons, and the global lead mine production growth rate will be 2.3% to 4620,000 tons [10][11]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In August, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 60 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 15 US dollars/dry ton. The import of lead concentrate maintained a loss, but the monthly import volume remained at a relatively high level. In June, the silver concentrate import volume was 126,000 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 847,000 tons. With the continuous high price of by - product silver, the import demand remained high [18][20]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 5.5066 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [22]. - **Refineries are resuming production, and the electrolytic lead production in August is expected to increase month - on - month**: In July, the electrolytic lead production was 321,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the production in August will be 338,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.13% [26]. - **The price of waste batteries remains high, and new projects contribute to the increase in production**: In July, the price of waste batteries fluctuated slightly. It is expected that the price will remain firm in August. In July, the production of recycled refined lead was 258,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.96%. It is expected that the production in August will be 273,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.16% [32][33]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to May 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 5.4887 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.69%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the global refined lead supply will exceed demand by 82,000 tons [44]. - **Lead - battery enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the sector shows differentiation**: In July, the consumption of electric bicycle batteries was good, while the consumption of automobile starting batteries was mixed. In August, it is expected that the battery consumption will continue to be differentiated [48]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot and battery exports, and imports supplement raw material ratios**: In June, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased year - on - year. The high Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead ingot exports, and the battery export is also affected by factors such as tariff increases [49][50]. - **Policy guidance improves the marginal consumption prospects of lead - batteries**: In the automobile sector, the battery replacement demand is stable, and the new - car demand is expected to continue to be good. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is large, and policies such as trade - in and new national standards will stimulate consumption. In the energy - storage sector, the demand for lead - batteries is expected to grow [58][60][62]. 2.4 Global Visible Inventory is Rising - In July, the global visible lead inventory was under pressure. The LME inventory remained high, and the domestic lead ingot inventory increased. If the consumption in August does not improve significantly, the inventory may continue to rise [67]. 3. Summary and Future Outlook - The supply of primary lead is expected to increase in August, but the refinery profit is compressed. The supply of recycled lead is expected to be stable with a slight increase, but there is a possibility of unexpected production cuts. The demand is differentiated, and the traditional consumption peak season is slightly lower than expected. The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely in August, and its upside depends on the consumption improvement [72][73].

铁矿周报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 市场情绪降温 铁矿震荡为主 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 ⚫ 需求端：上周钢厂生产部分受到天气不利因素影响， 日均铁水环比减少，但仍保持在240万吨以上水平。 上周247家钢厂高炉开工率83.46%，环比上周持平， 同比去年增加2.18个百分点，日均铁水产量 240.71 万吨，环比上周减少1.52万吨，同比去年增加4.09万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端：上周海 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250801 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：6 月 PCE 超预期反弹，国内股商情绪持续降温 海外方面，美国 6 月核心 PCE 同比回升至 2.8%，创四个月新高，环比涨幅亦升至 0.3%， 通胀超预期。受关税推升进口价格影响，物价压力上行，消费与收入放缓，强化美联储年内 不急于降息的预期，目前 9 月降息预期降至 38%。特朗普签署行政令将对未列国征收 10% 关税，加拿大税率从 25%升至 35%，转运税达 40%；墨西哥原有关税延期 90 天（25%芬太 尼汽车、50%金属）；欧盟酒类 8 月起被征收 15%关税，巴西 45%出口商品获豁免 50%关 税，印尼寻铜关税或降至 19%。美元指数站上 100 关口、美债利率回升，超预期的 PCE 及 关税对风险偏好有所压制，美股高开低走，金、铜、油均收跌。今晚关注 7 月非农就业报告。 国内方面，7 月制造业 PMI 回落至 49.3%，弱于预期与季节性，新订单与出口订单同步 回落， ...

2025 年 8 月 4 日 美豆出口需求疲软 连粕或震荡运行 豆粕周报 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 王工建 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 投资咨询号：Z0017785 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌33.75收于988美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅3.30%；豆粕09合约跌11收于3010元/吨，跌幅0.36%；华 南豆粕现货跌10收于2870元/吨，跌幅0.35%；菜粕09合约 收于2675元/吨，持平于上一周；广西菜粕现货跌30收于 2530元/吨，跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to close at 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 26 points to close at 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 130 points to close at 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 67 points to close at 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to close at 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the ICE canola active contract fell 17 points to close at 682.9 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.43% [4][7]. - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [4][7]. - Macroeconomically, the US non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than market expectations, and the employment data for the previous two months was significantly revised downwards. The expectation of recession pricing increased, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September heated up. The US stock market tumbled, the US bond price strengthened, and the US dollar index closed down. Oil prices rose and then fell last week. Fundamentally, the market expects the Malaysian palm oil inventory to continue to increase in July due to the increasing production and weak export demand. Attention should be paid to the guidance given by the report. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate and adjust [4][7][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.02 points to 53.9 cents/pound, a decline of 3.61%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 31 points to 4,245 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.72%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 26 points to 8,910 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 130 points to 8,274 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.60%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract rose 67 points to 9,524 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.71%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 156 yuan/ton to -636 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil increased by 93 yuan/ton to 614 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong, fell 80 yuan/ton to 8,920 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.89%; the spot price of first-grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 20 yuan/ton to 8,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.24%; the spot price of imported third-grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, rose 30 yuan/ton to 9,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat sector fluctuated narrowly last week with internal differentiation. Palm oil declined slightly from its high mainly due to the cooling of bullish sentiment in the commodity market, coupled with the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July, weaker export demand month-on-month, and continued inventory build-up, which pressured prices. Soybean oil was relatively strong as India's low vegetable oil inventory may lead to imports of Chinese soybean oil, and market purchasing sentiment improved with increased trading volume during the week. The decline of US soybean oil was mainly dragged down by the fall of US soybeans [7]. - In July 2025, the yield per unit area of fresh fruit bunches in Malaysia increased by 7.19%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.02%, and palm oil production increased by 7.07%. From July 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [8]. - Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July, which means the export tax will increase from $52 per ton in July to $74 per ton in August. In addition to the export tax, Indonesia also levies a 10% special tax on CPO exports, which remains the same as last month [8][9]. - From January to June 2025, Indonesia exported 11 million metric tons of CPO and refined palm oil, a 2.69% increase compared to the same period last year. The average export price of palm oil in the first half of this year increased by 22.2% year-on-year [9]. - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.3618 million tons, an increase of 0.16 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0881 million tons, a decrease of 0.0037 million tons from last week and 0.0031 million tons from the same period last year; the palm oil inventory was 0.6155 million tons, an increase of 0.0241 million tons from last week and 0.1088 million tons from the same period last year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.6582 million tons, an increase of 0.0016 million tons from last week and 0.3449 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 49,300 tons, compared with 15,840 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 526 tons, compared with 440 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The EU agreed to impose zero tariffs on Indonesian palm oil [11]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 are expected to exceed 500,000 tons, higher than 480,000 tons in 2024. Indonesia is expected to export 100,000 germinated palm seeds to India this year to support India's plan to expand the oil palm planting area to 1 million hectares by 2025 - 2026 [11]. - From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year-on-year, from 61,000 tons in the same period last year to 93,000 tons [12]. - When the free trade agreement between Indonesia and the EU is approved, the EU will grant zero-tariff treatment to an annual export quota of 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO. The EU and Indonesia are expected to officially sign the free trade agreement in September and obtain approval from their respective legislative bodies next year. If the Indonesian CPO exported to the EU exceeds the 1 million - ton quota, an additional 3% tariff will be imposed [12][13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, exports, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory of domestic oils and fats [15][17][20][23][25][27][33][35][41][46].

2025 年 8 月 4 日 宏观政策落地 钢价震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 钢材周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/8 ⚫ 宏观面：中美经贸会谈达成共识，双方将继续推动已暂 停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期 90天。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，会议强调， 做好下半年经济工作，要保持政策连续性稳定性，增强 灵活性预见性。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，推动市 场竞争秩序持续优化。依法依规治理企业无 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs poses a stagflation risk to the US economy, delaying the Fed's easing path and boosting the US dollar, which suppresses the non - ferrous market. The unexpected absence of refined copper and cathode copper from the US copper tariff list causes the COMEX premium to rapidly return. In China, the "anti - involution + stable growth" policy boosts the domestic capital market, with increased fiscal counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - Fundamentally, overseas major mines face continuous disruptions, while domestic refined copper production is high and imports are rising, leading to a looser supply situation. In the consumption sector, traditional industries in China show signs of a slow season, while the copper demand of emerging industries (except for photovoltaics) remains active. The COMEX copper delivery window closes, and global inventories rise slightly [2]. - Overall, the implementation of reciprocal tariffs raises the US inflation expectation, and the Fed's hawkish signals cool the capital market's risk appetite. Although the overseas mine shortage persists, the absence of the US copper tariff weakens the support for copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Review of Copper Market in July 2025 - Copper prices showed a range - bound trend in July. LME copper dropped from a high of $10,020 at the beginning of the month to $9,550 in the first half, then rebounded to $9,900 and faced resistance. SHFE copper traded in the range of 77,600 - 80,800 yuan. The unexpected US copper tariff situation and the unclear recovery of Panama's mine affected the prices. As of July 28, LME copper closed at $9,762.5/ton with a monthly decline of 1.17%, and SHFE copper closed at 79,000 yuan/ton with a monthly increase of 0.03% [7]. - In July, domestic refined copper consumption entered the traditional off - season. Terminal demand was weak, and the social inventory first rose to 150,000 tons and then fell to 120,000 tons. The spot premium declined, and the processing fee of copper rods decreased [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 The US Signs Trade Agreements with Major Economies, and the Fed Maintains a Hawkish Stance - The US - EU and US - Japan trade agreements strengthen the US economic position, boost the US dollar, and increase the global capital market's risk appetite. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade negotiation is expected to have a positive impact on copper prices if an agreement is reached [13]. - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates this year is uncertain, but in the long run, the policy may become more accommodative due to economic slowdown pressure [14]. 2.2 The US Manufacturing Enters a Contraction Cycle, and the Eurozone's Composite PMI Reaches a One - Year High - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in June was 49.8, still in the contraction range. Factory orders, employment, and other indicators show that the US manufacturing is facing challenges, and inflation may rise in the short term [15]. - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in July rose to 49.8, with Germany playing an important role. The ECB may gradually slow down its easing pace [17]. 2.3 The "Anti - Involution + Stable Growth" Policy is Clear, and New Fields and Tracks will be Pre - deployed - China's "anti - involution" policy aims to address over - competition in industries such as photovoltaics. The "stable growth" policy focuses on key industries like automobiles and steel, and promotes innovation in emerging fields such as AI and bio - manufacturing [18]. - In June, China's industrial added value and the profits of the equipment manufacturing industry increased, which is beneficial for the overall economic development and copper demand [19]. 3. Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Overseas Mainstream Mining Companies Increase Production in Q2, but the Global Concentrate Shortage Persists - As of the end of July, the copper concentrate spot TC remained at a low level of around - $40/ton. Some major mines like Panama and Kamoa - Kakula face production problems, and although some companies increased production in Q2, the global concentrate shortage continues [25]. - Anglo American, First Quantum, BHP, and other mining companies had different production performances in Q2, affected by factors such as ore grade, recovery rate, and natural disasters [26][27][28]. 3.2 Domestic Production Encounters Bottlenecks, and Overseas New Refined Copper Capacity Climbs Slowly - In China, from January to June, the electrolytic copper production increased, but the import of refined copper decreased. The supply of scrap copper from the US is expected to decline, but the overall scrap copper import is relatively stable. In the future, overseas refined copper supply may return to China [31][32]. - Overseas, many smelters face problems such as production disruptions and slow capacity ramping up. It is estimated that the actual increase in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is only about 150,000 tons [33]. 3.3 Refined Copper Imports will Increase in July, and the COMEX Copper Arbitrage Window is Closing - From January to June, China's imports of unforged copper and copper products decreased, while the imports of copper ore concentrates increased. In June, refined copper imports increased. The US copper tariff policy affects the flow of copper and the arbitrage window is closing [56]. - The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium declined in July, and the export window is narrowing. The US copper tariff policy will change the global copper trade pattern [57]. 3.4 Overseas Inventories Flow to North America, and China Enters a Low - Inventory Range - In July, domestic copper inventories fluctuated at a low level, with SHFE inventories decreasing and Shanghai bonded area inventories increasing. Global visible inventories rebounded due to the approaching US copper tariff window [61]. - As of July 25, the total inventory of the three major exchanges increased slightly. It is expected that global inventories will gradually enter a recovery cycle in August [62][63]. 3.5 Grid Investment Demand Enters the Off - Season, and the Year - on - Year Growth Rate of Emerging Industries (Except for Photovoltaics) Declines - In the first half of 2025, China's grid and power source project investments increased. The total grid investment of the State Grid and South Grid is expected to exceed 80 billion yuan, and the development of flexible DC technology will bring value to new grid lines [70][71]. - The photovoltaic industry has new regulations, and the growth of the wind power industry slows down. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the demand for copper in these industries is affected [72][75]. - The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China maintain strong growth, and the domestic and export markets are both active. The demand for copper in new energy vehicles is expected to continue to grow at a rate of over 25% [79][80]. 4. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US reciprocal tariffs and the Fed's policy affect the copper market, while China's "anti - involution + stable growth" policy is positive for the market. Fundamentally, supply is becoming looser, and consumption is mixed [85]. - Overall, the support for copper prices from the fundamentals weakens. It is expected that copper prices will adjust slightly in August, and the cost will still support copper prices in the medium term [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - environment shows that concerns about the US economic recession resurface, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September increases. In China, the economic pressure eases in the second half of the year, and the macro - environment tends to be stable [2][83]. - On the supply side, overseas zinc mine production is mostly stable, and domestic mine output is steadily released. In August, zinc processing fees continue to rise, refinery profits improve, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase by 12,000 tons month - on - month [2][83]. - The demand side is differentiated. High - temperature and heavy - rain weather affects infrastructure construction. The Yalong River project boosts consumption expectations but has limited actual impact. The trade - in policy has overdrawn some demand. Zinc consumption in the automotive and home - appliance sectors weakens marginally but remains resilient. The wind - power industry and galvanized product exports support demand, while the slowdown in the photovoltaic industry and the weak real - estate market drag down demand [2][83]. - Overall, the domestic policy expectations are fulfilled, but overseas economic concerns resurface. The market risk preference weakens. The supply of zinc continues to grow, while the demand is lackluster. The fundamental situation remains weak, and the high - level hedging demand in the industry suppresses zinc prices. However, the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants provides a basis for a short squeeze, which may support zinc prices or slow down the decline. It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai zinc will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [2][84]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Zinc Market行情回顾 - In early July, Shanghai zinc continued to oscillate at a low level. In late July, the price first rose and then fell. By the end of July, the price closed at 22,345 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 0.67%. LME zinc's center of gravity moved up, and it closed at 2,762 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.77% [7]. 3.2 Macro - aspect 3.2.1 US Aspect - The US economy weakens, with the ISM manufacturing PMI in July hitting a nine - month low, and the non - farm employment data braking sharply. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the Fed's interest - rate decision shows internal differences. After the non - farm employment data in July, the expectation of a September interest - rate cut increases significantly. The US has reached trade agreements with some countries, and the global tariff level is expected to be 15 - 20%, with the tariff - driven factor weakening [10][11][12]. 3.2.2 Euro - zone Aspect - The Euro - zone economy shows certain resilience driven by domestic demand, with the comprehensive PMI in July rising. Inflation rebounds slightly, and the ECB suspends interest - rate cuts. However, the US - EU tariff agreement increases trade costs and will impact the EU's automotive and pharmaceutical industries [13][14]. 3.2.3 China Aspect - China's GDP in Q2 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than that in Q1. The economy in June showed a differentiated performance, with external demand and production rebounding, while consumption and investment weakening. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month indicated that the focus of fiscal policy in the second half of the year is on implementation, and the expectation of strong stimulus policies weakens [15][16][17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply Situation - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Shifts from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, from January to May, the global zinc concentrate cumulative output was 4.9589 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.58%. Overseas mines are generally stable in production, and it is estimated that the overseas zinc ore increment for the whole year will be 55 - 60 million tons. In China, new mines are being put into production, and the annual increment is expected to be 9 - 10 million tons [31][32][33]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Continue to Rise Month - on - Month, and Zinc Ore Imports Decline Significantly Month - on - Month**: In August, domestic and imported zinc concentrate processing fees increased. Due to the stable recovery of zinc ore supply, smelters have a high bargaining power. The zinc ore import volume in June decreased significantly month - on - month. Although overseas mines are releasing incremental output, factors such as the loss of zinc ore imports and the weakening of the Shanghai - London ratio may limit future imports, but there is still a possibility of a rebound [39]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply Situation - **Overseas Smelters Have Both Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disturbance Risks Remain**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc cumulative output decreased year - on - year, mainly due to overseas production cuts. Some overseas smelters have reduced production, while some have expanded production. It is expected that the global refined zinc supply increment will mainly come from China [45]. - **Refined Zinc Output from January to July Slightly Exceeds Expectations, and Output in August Remains Above 600,000 Tons**: In July, China's refined zinc output was 602,800 tons, and it is expected to reach 621,500 tons in August. The import volume of refined zinc in June increased, but since May, the import window has been closed, and future imports will mainly be long - term contracts [50][51]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand Situation - **High Interest Rates and Tariffs Disturb Overseas Demand, Which is Under Pressure**: From January to May 2025, the global refined zinc consumption increased slightly year - on - year. In overseas markets, high interest rates and tariffs have a negative impact on the real - estate and automotive industries, and overseas terminal consumption is difficult to improve significantly [61][62]. - **The Start - up of Initial Enterprises is Seasonally Weak, and Galvanized Exports Remain Resilient**: In July, the start - up rate of initial enterprises was weak, in line with the seasonal pattern. Galvanized product exports increased in June, but it is expected to decline marginally in July [64][65]. - **Terminal Consumption is Differentiated**: In the traditional infrastructure sector, the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, but it is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year. The real - estate market is still weak, with both investment and sales declining. The automotive and home - appliance industries have certain resilience, but the growth rate may slow down. The photovoltaic industry has slowed down, while the wind - power industry is expected to continue to grow [69][70][72][74][76][77]. 3.3.4 Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory Increases Slightly - In July, LME inventory decreased, and there were concerns about a short squeeze, which pushed up zinc prices. Social inventory in China increased slowly. It is expected that inventory will continue to increase seasonally in early August but will stop increasing in late August as downstream demand recovers [，81]. 3.4 Summary and Future Outlook - The macro - environment tends to be stable, the supply of zinc shows an increasing trend, and the demand is differentiated. The fundamental situation of zinc remains weak, but the high concentration of LME zinc delivery warrants may support zinc prices. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc main contract will show a weak and volatile pattern in August, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds [83][84].

氧化铝及电解铝月报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 关注库存动向 铝价震荡调整 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 20 ⚫ 氧化铝方面，成本端几内亚雨季影响矿石发运或对矿 价形成支撑，同时烧碱价格企稳反弹，未来成本端对 氧化铝支撑预计较好。供应端，氧化铝产能提升，但 现货供应增速有限，呈现一定程度的结构性紧缺，交 易所库存短暂提升之后再度回落至极低位置震荡。消 息面"反内卷"产能优化消息后续仍可能助推市场情 绪，预计短时 ...