Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In November, China's refined copper production is expected to stabilize, and consumption is expected to seasonally recover. With an increase in scrap copper substitution, supply and demand are expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas demand is expected to be neutral, and the increase in smelter maintenance and production cuts will ease the supply pressure. Meanwhile, changes in US imports need to be monitored. At the macro - level, Sino - US economic and trade relations have entered a period of relaxation, and the Fed's monetary policy will remain in a loose direction. Therefore, although the US government's continued shutdown and the correction of the US stock market at a high level are expected to be only short - term shocks, the reopening of the US government is expected to boost market sentiment again. Overall, with the tight supply pattern at the mine end, the center of copper prices will rise compared to before. If the macro - pessimistic sentiment eases, copper prices are expected to strengthen again in a volatile manner. The operating range of the main contract of SHFE copper this month is 84,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is 10,400 - 11,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to try to go long on dips. [9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Highlights Summary - **Supply**: In Q3, overseas copper mine production fell short of expectations, and copper mine supply remained tight, while the supply of blister copper was marginally relaxed. In October, China's refined copper production decreased, and it is expected to stabilize in November. - **Demand**: In October, the apparent consumption of refined copper in China is estimated to have declined year - on - year, and the apparent consumption in November is expected to continue to decline year - on - year. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and demand expectations are neutral. - **Imports and Exports**: In October, the export window for进料加工 of SHFE copper opened, the price difference between US copper and LME copper narrowed, and the arbitrage window for US copper closed. - **Inventory**: In October, the inventories of SHFE, bonded areas, and COMEX increased, while LME inventory decreased, and the total inventory rose. It is estimated that China's inventory will not change much in November. [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In October, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Supply disruptions in copper mines, progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations drove copper prices to hit record highs. During the month, the main contract of SHFE copper rose 4.69%, and the LME 3M contract rose 5.78%. The US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly. At the beginning of November, copper prices fell from record highs. - **Price Differences between Markets**: In October, the import loss of SHFE copper first widened and then narrowed, and the export window opened once. At the beginning of November, the import loss further narrowed. In October, the price difference between COMEX and LME copper fluctuated and declined. Although the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the price difference, the continuous inventory build - up in COMEX gradually closed the import arbitrage window. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of October, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 680,000 tons, an increase of 67,000 tons from the end of September. The total inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years, but there were still structural inventory problems (COMEX inventory accounted for a high proportion, about 47.5%). LME copper inventory decreased, and COMEX copper inventory continued to rise. In terms of basis, in October, the Cash/3M in the LME market first rose and then fell; the domestic basis first rose and then declined, and at the beginning of November, the spot price had a slight premium over the futures price. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of the end of October, the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds increased, and the sentiment remained relatively positive. The position of SHFE copper first rose and then fell, and the current position was still at a relatively high level, with intense long - short games. In November, the impact on market sentiment is expected to mainly come from inventory and changes in US policies. [17][20][23][26][29] 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply - Copper Mine**: The copper mine production of 17 medium - and large - sized copper mine enterprises in Q3 was about 3.497 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2%. Mine accidents, ore grade problems, etc. led to production falling short of expectations, and the year - on - year decline in mine production in Q4 is expected to further expand. In September, Chile's copper production decreased year - on - year and rebounded month - on - month, and the production was at a low level. In October, the inventory of copper concentrates at major ports in China first decreased and then increased, and the spot supply at ports was first tight and then loose. In terms of processing fees, the spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined in October, and the spot TC at the end of October was reported at around - 42 US dollars/ton. In November, it is the time for long - term contract negotiations, and it is expected that both supply and demand sides will be in a stalemate. [34][37] - **Supply - Refined Copper**: In October, the processing fee for domestic blister copper turned up, and the rise in copper prices drove up the processing fee. The supply of raw materials for refined copper production was marginally relaxed. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting in mainstream domestic regions, fluctuated and rebounded, remaining at a relatively high level, making a positive contribution to smelting revenue. In October, the number of smelter maintenance activities increased, and China's refined copper production continued to decline month - on - month. In November, the impact of copper smelter maintenance is still there but is decreasing marginally. Coupled with the increase in the number of scrap copper to produce blister copper/anode plates due to the rise in copper prices, refined copper production is expected to stabilize. [42][44] - **Supply - Recycled Copper**: In October, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 3,580 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. Without the full implementation of local tax refund policies, scrap copper had a good substitution advantage. In October, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises fluctuated and rebounded. The widening of the refined - scrap price difference and the marginal easing of policy impacts in some regions drove the operating rate to rebound, increasing the substitution for refined copper. [48] - **Demand - China**: Assuming a decrease in net imports, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper in October is estimated to be 1.321 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.3%. From January to October, the cumulative apparent consumption was about 13.674 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%. From the perspective of leading economic indicators, both the official manufacturing PMI and the Caixin manufacturing PMI in China weakened month - on - month in October, and the manufacturing prosperity weakened marginally. In the first nine months of 2025, China's copper product output increased by about 9.6%, and the growth rate declined month - on - month. According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper products weakened in October and is expected to rebound in November. In October, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises was weak, and the average operating rate was lower than that of the same period last year. The current operating level has not returned to the level before the National Day. The operating conditions of domestic wire and cable enterprises in October were weaker than expected, and the operating rate is expected to rebound in November. In September, the year - on - year decline in power investment (power source + power grid) continued, and the decline slightly expanded. The newly installed photovoltaic capacity continued to decline year - on - year and increased month - on - month, while the newly installed wind power capacity declined month - on - month. Near the end of the year, relevant demand is expected to improve marginally. High - frequency data shows that in October, domestic real estate transaction data was weaker than that of the same period last year, and the production scheduling of household appliances at the back - end of the real estate market remained weak; the high - frequency sales performance of automobiles in October was strong. [51][54][57][60][65] - **Demand - Overseas**: In October, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas developed economies was differentiated. India, the Eurozone, and the UK improved, while the manufacturing prosperity of the US and Japan weakened. According to ICSG data, in August 2025, the global refined copper consumption decreased month - on - month and continued to increase year - on - year. From January to August, consumption increased by about 5.9%. [68] 3.4 Macro Analysis - The US government shutdown led to the postponement of the release of non - farm data. Recently released ADP data and the number of corporate layoffs show that the US job market is weak. In September, inflation rose and core inflation declined. Due to the lack of data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has decreased, but the probability is still close to 70%. At the same time, the Fed will stop shrinking its balance sheet on December 1st, and the marginal loosening direction of the policy remains unchanged. - In October, the US dollar index rebounded and is still oscillating within the range; the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US is running weakly, still deviating from the copper price trend. [72][74]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In October, aluminum prices strengthened both domestically and internationally, with SHFE aluminum rising 2.01% and LME aluminum rising 7.56% and hitting a new high for the year. Fundamentally, concerns about supply have been triggered by the shutdown or production cuts of overseas aluminum plants, and domestic inventories remain relatively low. Against the backdrop of the expected easing of the global trade situation and the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut, supply - side disturbances and the improvement of domestic export expectations may drive aluminum prices higher. Meanwhile, attention should be paid to the support of domestic inventory changes for prices. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is expected to be between 20,800 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is expected to be between 2,750 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: As of the end of October, China's electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month [11][12]. - Inventory & Spot: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month; the bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month; the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month; the LME global aluminum inventory was 554,000 tons, up 43,000 tons month - on - month, at a low level in the same period of previous years. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots to futures was 15 yuan/ton, and the LME market Cash/3M discount was 4.6 US dollars/ton [11][12]. - Imports and Exports: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6%. As the domestic import loss widens, the export expectation of aluminum products is expected to improve significantly [11][12]. - Demand: In October, the overall downstream demand for aluminum in China was stable with a slight decline, showing a differentiated trend. The operating rate of domestic leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises gradually decreased from 62.5% at the beginning of the month to 62.2% at the end of the month, generally remaining at a relatively high level. From the middle to the end of the month, the industry transitioned from the peak season to the off - season, and the continuous rise in aluminum prices restricted downstream demand growth. It is expected that the subsequent operating rate will decline slowly or fluctuate within a narrow range [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: In October, SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, rising 2.01% for the month, and LME aluminum rose 7.56%. As of November 7, SHFE aluminum reached a maximum of over 21,700 yuan/ton [20]. - Term Spread: In October, the spread between the first and third contracts of SHFE aluminum changed from a premium to a discount [25]. - Spot Basis: In October, the spot prices in South China and Central China were at a discount to futures for most of the time, while the price in East China changed from a premium to a discount in the middle of the month [28]. - Regional Premium and Discount Spread: In October, the spot price in East China strengthened relatively [31]. - LME Premium and Discount: In October, the LME aluminum Cash/3M premium and discount first rose and then fell [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Profit: In October, the smelting profit of primary aluminum increased by 11.4% month - on - month compared with September, reaching a historical high [40]. - Inventory: - Electrolytic Aluminum: At the end of October, the spot inventory of aluminum ingots was 605,000 tons, up 18,000 tons month - on - month, and the inventory continued to fluctuate in early November. The bonded area inventory was 68,000 tons, down 19,000 tons month - on - month [46]. - Aluminum Rods: At the end of October, the total inventory of aluminum rods was 153,000 tons, up 29,000 tons month - on - month [51]. - LME Inventory: In September, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased [61]. 3.4 Cost Side - Bauxite: In October, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite remained stable [68]. - Alumina: In October, the domestic alumina price decreased by 103 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the import price decreased by 5 US dollars/ton [71]. - Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost: In October, the price of anodes in the South increased by 70 yuan/ton compared with September, and the price of thermal coal increased by 70 yuan/ton month - on - month [75]. 3.5 Supply Side - Alumina: In October, the monthly output of alumina was 7.785 million tons, an increase of 39,000 tons compared with September and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [81]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: As of the end of October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.06 million tons, with the industry's monthly operating rate remaining stable. In October, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the overseas output was 2.59 million tons, up 3.6% month - on - month [84]. - Molten Aluminum Ratio: In October, the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased month - on - month. The domestic molten aluminum ratio rebounded by 1.4% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [87]. - Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, the electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased compared with September [92]. 3.6 Demand Side - Downstream Production: In September, China's aluminum product output was 5.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%; the cumulative output from January to September was 49.767 million tons, basically the same as the previous year. As of November 3, the daily delivery volume of aluminum ingots was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease [96]. - Downstream Operating Rate: In September, the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased month - on - month, while the operating rate of aluminum sheets, strips, and foils increased. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots also increased. In October, the price difference between aluminum ingots and aluminum alloys widened by 203 yuan/ton month - on - month [103][106][109]. - Terminal Demand: The production schedules of the three major white goods in November 2025 showed a decline. The current real - estate data was weak, automobile production and sales were acceptable, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules decreased slightly [113]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - Primary Aluminum: In September 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 247,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year increase of 80.0%. In October, the spot import loss of aluminum ingots widened. In October, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products; the cumulative exports from January to October were 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [118][125]. - Recycled Aluminum: In September 2025, the imports of recycled aluminum were 155,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.7%. The imports from January to September were 1.501 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [125]. - Bauxite: In September 2025, China's bauxite imports were 15.881 million tons, with imported ore accounting for 74.2%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to September were 157.305 million tons [129]. - Alumina: In September 2025, China exported 246,000 tons of alumina, a month - on - month increase of 36.7% and a year - on - year increase of 82.2%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to September were 1.999 million tons [129].

出口消息提振，盘面触底反弹 尿素月报 2025/11/07 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 刘洁文（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 02 期现市场 06 期权相关 03 利润库存 07 产业结构图 04 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度总结 | 尿素产业链月度价格数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 面 | | | 盘 | | | | | | 合 约 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | 月 差 | 月 底 | 月 初 | 变 动 | | 09合约 | 1736 | 1742 | - 6 | 9-1价差 | 111 | 7 2 | 3 9 | | 01合约 | 1625 | 1670 | -45 | 1-5价差 | -78 | -47 | -31 | | 05合约 | 1703 | 1717 | -14 | 5-9价差 | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | 国内现货市场 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report Looking ahead to November, on the supply side, overseas shipments in October continued to be strong, with a significant increase in arrivals. Shipments are expected to decline month-on-month in November. On the demand side, since late October, affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei and a sharp decline in steel mill profits, the daily average pig iron output has fallen below 2.4 million tons. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the terminal data is weak. It is expected that the pig iron output in November will continue to decline compared to October, and the supply and demand of iron ore are expected to weaken. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of port inventory has intensified, and inventory pressure is still expected in November. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session was held in late October, and progress was made in the China-US economic and trade consultations at the end of the month, with a meeting between the two heads of state, giving certain positive signals. During this period, the iron ore price rebounded periodically. After the macro enters a short-term vacuum period, it is expected that the futures market logic will return to the industrial reality, and the iron ore price will face downward pressure [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In October, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 32.8444 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,700 tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The estimated daily average domestic pig iron output in October was 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of October, the price difference between PB and Super Special powder was 93 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 22 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and PB powder was 110 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 29 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás and Jinbuba powder was 169 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 16 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 and PB powder was 8.5 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 25.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of October, the pelletizing feed ratio was 14.92%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.3%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.78%, with no change from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of October, the profitability rate of steel mills was 45.02%, a decrease of 12.99 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 145.4248 million tons, an increase of 5.6469 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 2.8692 million tons, an increase of 82,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 11.5383 million tons, an increase of 707,700 tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory was 18.623 million tons, an increase of 1.4017 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Australian ore port inventory was 60.174 million tons, a change of 1.0121 million tons from the end of the previous month. The Brazilian ore port inventory was 57.4387 million tons, an increase of 3.8935 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of October, the inventory of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 88.4986 million tons, a decrease of 8.8653 million tons from the end of the previous month [45]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In October, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 15.8964 million tons, a decrease of 194,600 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 8.486 million tons, an increase of 955,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 6.8054 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 58,400 tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.6104 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,600 tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.2686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 870,100 tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8316 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 306,900 tons [50][53][56]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: In October, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.8428 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2283 million tons. In September, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 18.5836 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.6846 million tons [59]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of October, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 60.96%, a decrease of 0.31 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 476,400 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from the end of the previous month [62]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Pig Iron Output and Blast Furnace Utilization**: The estimated domestic pig iron output in October was 74.3668 million tons, with a daily average of 2.3989 million tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous month. At the end of October, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.61%, a decrease of 2.25 percentage points from the end of the previous month [67]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In October, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1888 million tons, a decrease of 122,800 tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.9667 million tons, an increase of 316,000 tons from the previous month [70]. 3.6 Basis As of October 31, the estimated basis of the iron ore BRBF main contract was 67.35 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 7.83% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, with slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State. Although the mining permits have been approved, the export volume of tin ore is still far below the normal level, and the supply gap cannot be effectively filled. The long - term demand expectations from emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and AI servers support the tin price. It is expected that the tin price will remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The mining permits in Myanmar's Wa State have been approved, but the resumption of production is slow. It is expected that the supply of tin ore will significantly recover in the fourth quarter. In September 2025, China's imported tin concentrate physical volume was 8714 tons, a significant decline from the previous month. The import volume from countries like Congo (Kinshasa) decreased due to shipping, but it is at a normal level. The import volume from Myanmar is increasing, and short - term supply shows improvement [12]. - Supply side: The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa State is slow and difficult to increase production before November. The raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises persists, and the tin concentrate processing fee (TC) in Yunnan remains low. In Jiangxi, the supply of crude tin is insufficient due to a significant reduction in scrap, and the refined tin output remains low. The raw material inventory of domestic smelters is generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance in September, with capacity utilization likely to remain low [12]. - Demand side: Traditional fields such as consumer electronics and tinplate show weak consumption, but emerging fields like new energy vehicles and AI servers provide long - term demand support for the tin price. In the peak season of October, the operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises showed a slight recovery. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. As of the end of October, the total social inventory of major tin ingots in China was 7698 tons, a decrease of 654 tons from September [12]. - Conclusion: In October, the tin price fluctuated mainly following the non - ferrous metal sector. The supply tension supports the tin price, and it is expected to remain stable or have a slight rebound [12][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium (0 - 3) are presented [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fee remains low [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as domestic refined tin monthly output, domestic recycled tin monthly output, tin output and operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi regions, refined tin export and import profits, domestic refined tin import volume, and Indonesia's refined tin import and export are presented [30][32][35] 3.5 Demand Side - Semiconductor sales: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [44]. - Consumer electronics: The production of domestic computers and smartphones is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [46]. - Household appliances: The production of household appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs is presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [48][50]. - Photovoltaic: The production of photovoltaic cells and cumulative photovoltaic installation in China are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [52]. - Other fields: Tin consumption in the tinplate field continues to decline as aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. PVC production increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year, and PVC stabilizers are a major consumer of tin compounds [55]. - Downstream enterprises: The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises and domestic apparent tin consumption are presented in charts, but no specific text summary is provided [57]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - No specific text summary content provided, only relevant charts such as China's social inventory and LME inventory are presented [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - In October, steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [11][12] Summary by Directory Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Monthly Key Points Summary**: On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, the estimated crude steel output of the 300-series stainless steel in September was 1.4834 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%; the cold-rolled output of the 300-series in September was 0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100.00%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel [11] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The 10-month steel mill production schedules increased slightly month-on-month, but post-festival demand contracted. With the continuous increase in resource arrivals, the contradiction in the supply-demand structure became increasingly prominent. The 300-series stainless steel production line has not planned large-scale maintenance, and the supply pressure persists, suppressing prices. Terminal demand release fell short of expectations, and market trading activity remained sluggish. Downstream purchases were mainly driven by rigid demand, with strong resistance to high-priced resources. Market transactions were concentrated in the low-price range, further restricting price upside potential. With the continuous accumulation of inventory pressure, traders' willingness to support prices weakened significantly, and most adopted price-cutting strategies to promote sales and accelerate turnover to relieve capital occupation pressure. In the short term, the core driving factor for the market will focus on the price adjustment policies of leading steel mills, but in the medium term, the imbalance between supply and demand will remain difficult to change [12] Futures and Spot Market - On November 7, the average price of cold-rolled stainless steel coils in Wuxi was 12,800 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.16%; the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 920 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 1.08%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 8,600 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.15%. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,590 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.06%. The Foshan Delong market quotation was about -90 yuan (+40) higher than the main contract; the Wuxi Hongwang market quotation was about 10 yuan (+30) higher than the main contract. The disk position was 190,304 lots, a month-on-month increase of 10.75%. The spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at -20 (+20), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at -50 (+15) [11][16][19][22] Supply Side - In October, domestic cold-rolled stainless steel production was scheduled to be 1.4714 million tons. In September, the crude steel output was 3.0661 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163,300 tons, and the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to September was 6.48%. In September, the stainless steel net export volume was 298,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.83% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.42%; from January to September, the cumulative net export volume was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared to the same period last year. It is estimated that the monthly output of stainless steel in Indonesia in September was 430,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.50%; in September, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 95,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.49% [11][26][29][32] Demand Side - From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was 658.3479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 5.50%; in September, the single-month sales area of commercial housing was 85.3087 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%. In September, the year-on-year changes in the output of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were -7%, -2%, -3%, and 5.6% respectively; the cumulative year-on-year increase in the fuel processing industry in September was 20.7%. In September, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 135,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.45% and a year-on-year increase of 1.50%; in September, the automobile sales volume was 3.2264 million units, a month-on-month increase of 12.94% and a year-on-year increase of 14.86% [11][39][42][45] Inventory - Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.034 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.29%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts last week was 74,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15,537 tons. Last week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400-series stainless steel were 191,400 tons, 639,500 tons, and 203,100 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300-series decreased by 1.90% month-on-month; last week, the floating volume of stainless steel was 68,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.69%, and the unloading volume was 90,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 37.92% [11][49][52] Cost Side - In September, the nickel ore import volume was 6.1145 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.51% and a year-on-year increase of 34.43%; currently, the nickel ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 14.791 million wet tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.26%. Last week, the ex-factory price of 7%-10% ferronickel in Shandong was 925 yuan/nickel, a month-on-month decrease of 10 yuan/nickel, and the iron mills in Fujian were currently losing 104 yuan/nickel. Last week, the chromium ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/dry ton; the high-carbon ferrochrome quotation was 8,200 yuan/50 base tons, a month-on-month decrease of 100 yuan/50 base tons. In terms of output, the high-carbon ferrochrome output in October was 825,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.54%. The current gross profit of the self-produced high-nickel ferronickel production line is -828 yuan/ton, and the profit margin reaches -6.08% [56][59][62][65]

进口利润大幅增加 ，等待做空机会 白糖月报 2025/11/07 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，10月原糖价格大幅下跌，截至10月31日ICE原糖3月合约收盘价报14.42美分/磅，较之前一月下跌2.18美分/磅，跌幅 13.13%；价差方面，原糖3-5月差震荡，报0.39美分/磅，较之前一月下跌0.07美分/磅；伦敦白糖3-5月差走弱，报3.1美元/吨，较之前一月 下跌1.7美元/吨；3月合约原白价差震荡，报92美元/吨，较之前一月下跌4美元/吨。国内方面，10月郑糖价格震荡，截至10月31日郑糖1月 合约收盘价报5483元/吨，较之前一月下跌10元/吨，跌幅0.18%。广西现货报5680元/吨，较之前一月下跌90元/吨；基差走弱，报197元/吨， 之前一月下跌80元/吨；1-5价差震荡，报70元/吨，较之前一月上涨3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Demand side: High - level consumption of power and energy - storage batteries continues, product prices in all links of the lithium - battery industry chain are strong, and the sentiment in the equity market is optimistic. It is expected that the production of battery materials in November will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [12]. - Supply side: The probability of a delay in supply recovery at the mining end is relatively high, which alleviates the short - term supply release pressure. The domestic lithium carbonate inventory reduction is expected to continue until the end of the year, with strong spot support [12]. - Capital side: When prices fall, short - sellers' profit - taking is obvious, and the willingness of the industry to hedge increases after the price rebound. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate in a short - term range. It is recommended to pay attention to the trend of ore prices, the production schedule of lithium - battery materials in December, and changes in the atmosphere of the equity market [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12]. - **Supply**: On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2%. In September 2025, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [12]. - **Demand**: According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, from October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% [12]. - **Inventory**: On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%). The consumption growth rate is higher than that on the supply side, and inventory depletion is accelerating. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [12]. - **Cost**: On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.57% this week [12]. 2. Periodic and Spot Market - On November 7, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index was reported at 79,927 yuan in the morning, up 9.5% from the end of September, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,150 yuan. The closing price of LC2601 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 82,300 yuan, up 1.88% this week and 12.9% from the end of September [12][20]. - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market was - 100 yuan, up 50 yuan this week. The net short - position of the lithium carbonate contract's main force decreased [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,200 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 4,820 yuan [27]. 3. Supply Side - On November 6, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate reported by SMM was 21,534 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. In October 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, a year - on - year increase of 54.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first 10 months was 43.2% [32]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 57,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%, a year - on - year increase of 74.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 74.6%. The output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 12,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.8%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the first ten months was 17.8% [35]. - In October, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 15.7% month - on - month to 13,840 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 9.9%. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 8,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to October was 25.2% [38]. - In September 2025, China imported 19,596 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month decrease of 10.3% and a year - on - year increase of 20.5%. From January to September, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 173,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In September, Chile exported 15,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month decrease of 6%. In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56% [41]. 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, the global consumption accounted for 87%. The main growth point of future lithium salt consumption still depends on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited proportion and weak growth [45]. - In September 2025, the global sales volume of new - energy vehicles was about 2.1 million. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in Europe was 2.716 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.6%. From January to September, the total sales volume of new - energy vehicles in the United States was 1.232 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [48][51]. - According to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in September, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 151.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 35.4%. From January to September, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 1,121.9 GWh, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51.4% [54]. - From January to September, the cumulative output of domestic lithium iron phosphate increased by 47.0% year - on - year, and the output of domestic ternary materials increased by 15.4% year - on - year. From October to November, the output of battery materials will reach the annual peak, driving the continuous growth of lithium carbonate demand [57]. 5. Inventory - On November 6, the weekly inventory of domestic lithium carbonate was reported at 123,953 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,405 tons (- 2.7%), and inventory depletion accelerated. On the same day, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 26,420 tons [64]. - The inventory of cathode materials is at a high level, and downstream demand is booming. The consumption of power batteries and energy - storage batteries is strong, and the inventory is at a recent low [67]. 6. Cost Side - On November 7, the quotation of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate reported by SMM was 920 - 960 US dollars per ton. Recently, the inventory pressure of lithium ore has been relieved. If the price of lithium salt回调, pay attention to the price - holding willingness of mining enterprises [74]. - In September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.0% and a month - on - month increase of 10.6%. From January to September, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 4.37 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has begun to ease recently, and the lithium ore imported is expected to increase significantly [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially marking the bottom of crude oil prices. Polyolefin overall profit has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the low valuation. Once the cost - end crude oil begins to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly. [16][17] - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, potentially indicating the bottom of crude oil prices. [16] - **Cost - end**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent crude oil by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged (0.00%), methanol by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged (0.00%). The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost - end under the background of weak supply and demand. [16] - **Supply - end**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, down 0.76% month - on - month, up 4.75% year - on - year, and down 5.42% compared to the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, up 1.76% month - on - month, up 5.46% year - on - year, and down 5.87% compared to the 5 - year average. There was a divergence in the supply - end of the polyolefin 2601 contract. PE had only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while PP faced greater pressure with 1.45 million tons of planned capacity. [16] - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, up 7.58% month - on - month and down 10.04% year - on - year. PP imports were 177,400 tons, down 6.18% month - on - month and year - on - year. The export season for both PE and PP arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month and up 63.54% year - on - year. PP exports were 208,200 tons, down 16.82% month - on - month and up 21.14% year - on - year. [16] - **Demand - end**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, up 1.44% month - on - month and down 0.09% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, up 1.74% month - on - month and up 1.23% year - on - year. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, but the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was strong. [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 0.33% and a year - on - year increase of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 7.28% and a year - on - year increase of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 11.96% and a year - on - year increase of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year increase of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, with a month - on - month inventory decrease of 5.97% and a year - on - year increase of 5.04%. [17] - **Next - month Forecast**: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6,600 - 6,900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6,300 - 6,600. [17] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented to show the term structure, price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of LLDPE and PP contracts from 2021 - 2025, as well as the spreads between different varieties such as LL - PP, PP - 1.2PG, etc. [34][49] 3.3 Cost - end - The cost - end shows that crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. Multiple cost - related price charts are provided, including WTI crude oil,动力煤, methanol, propane, etc., as well as relevant data on LPG such as domestic LPG supply, production, import, inventory, and production margins of related devices. [85][94] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - end - The production raw material proportion of PE includes oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE. In 2025, there were multiple PE production projects put into operation, with a total of 463,000 tons of projects already in operation and 40,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The charts show PE capacity, capacity utilization, and maintenance loss volume. [131][137] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - Charts display the total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, import volume, and export volume of PE from 2021 - 2025. [146][156] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - end - The downstream demand for polyethylene is mainly concentrated in packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. Charts show the downstream demand proportion, CPI changes, downstream operating rates of different products, etc. [163][168]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, suggesting the bottom of crude oil prices may have been reached. Polyolefin overall profits are declining, and the inventory at the mid - and upstream levels is being reduced. Given the low valuation of polyolefins, once the cost - end crude oil starts to rebound, polyolefins may rise significantly [16][17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: OPEC+'s plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may indicate the bottom of crude oil prices [16]. - **Cost End**: WTI crude oil dropped by 3.45%, Brent by 2.95%, coal price remained unchanged at 0.00%, methanol fell by 6.73%, ethylene by 8.75%, propylene by 10.23%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. The low - level rebound of oil prices has a significant impact on the cost end under the background of weak supply and demand [16]. - **Supply End**: PE capacity utilization was 83.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76% and a year - on - year increase of 4.75%, 5.42% lower than the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 78.55%, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 5.46%, 5.87% lower than the 5 - year average. There were differences in the supply end of the polyolefin 2601 contract, with only 400,000 tons of planned PE capacity and 1.45 million tons of planned PP capacity [16]. - **Import and Export**: In September, domestic PE imports were 1.0222 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.04%. PP imports were 177,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.18%. The export season arrived. In September, PE exports were 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.48% and a year - on - year increase of 63.54%. PP exports were 208,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.82% and a year - on - year increase of 21.14% [16]. - **Demand End**: PE downstream operating rate was 45%, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.09%. PP downstream operating rate was 52.61%, a month - on - month increase of 1.74% and a year - on - year increase of 1.23%. During the seasonal peak season, the overall operating rate reached the same level as previous years, and the demand for PE agricultural film raw materials was good [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory was 490,200 tons, a month - on - month inventory accumulation of 0.33% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 20.44%. PE trader inventory was 50,100 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 7.28% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 0.58%. PP production enterprise inventory was 599,900 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 11.96% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 12.11%. PP trader inventory was 228,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 12.45% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 87.68%. PP port inventory was 64,600 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 5.97% and a year - on - year inventory accumulation of 5.04% [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (6600 - 6900); for polypropylene (PP2601), it is (6300 - 6600) [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are presented, including PE and PP term structures,主力 contract prices, basis, spreads, trading volumes, open interests, registered warrant volumes, and virtual - to - real ratios, showing the historical data trends from 2021 to 2025 [34][49]. 3.3 Cost End - The cost - end crude oil prices are oscillating at the bottom. The report provides price trend charts of WTI crude oil, steam coal, methanol, propane, etc., as well as data on LPG supply, production, import, and related profit margins and capacity utilization rates [85][96]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply End - **Raw Material Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of PE production raw materials and their annual changes, including oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based PE [131][133]. - **Capacity and Production**: PE capacity, production, and capacity growth rate data from 2014 to 2025E are presented. In 2025, there are multiple domestic polyethylene production projects, with 4.63 million tons already put into production and 400,000 tons yet to be [136][137]. - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance Loss**: PE capacity utilization and maintenance loss data are provided, showing historical trends from 2021 to 2025 [138][140]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export - **Inventory**: Charts display the trends of total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory of PE from 2021 to 2025 [146][148]. - **Import - Export**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import and export volumes of PE from 2021 to 2025, including LLDPE export volume [151][156]. 3.6 Polyethylene Demand End - **Demand Proportion**: Charts show the proportion of polyethylene downstream demand and terminal demand, including packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc. [163][164]. - **Related Indicators**: Charts show CPI year - on - year and month - on - month changes, downstream demand cumulative year - on - year changes, and the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE from 2021 to 2025 [167][168].