1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, fats and oils and agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market, soft commodity sugar fluctuates slightly, cotton consolidates strongly, and grains such as corn and starch are narrowly bullish [2]. - Strategies suggest constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2601) is 4,159, up 36 with a gain of 0.87%, trading volume is 14.46 million lots, and open interest is 14.53 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For example, the trading volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.71, and the open interest PCR is 1.02 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are identified. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4250, and the support level is 4050 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility indicators show the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.5, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.46 [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1**: The fundamental situation has a slightly bullish impact. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7]. - **Soybean meal**: The trading volume and basis have certain changes. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Palm oil**: The production and inventory situation is complex. The option implied volatility is below the historical average. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put option spread combination strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9]. - **Peanut**: The market is in a high - level consolidation stage. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold long spot + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live pig**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand increases. The option implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold long spot + sell out - of - the - money call option [10]. - **Egg**: The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and the supply and demand are loose. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. - **Apple**: The cold - storage inventory is decreasing. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [11]. - **Jujube**: The trading in the market is not active. The option implied volatility is above the historical average. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered - hedging strategy: Hold long spot + sell out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugarcane harvest is approaching, and the domestic supply and demand situation is complex. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [12]. - **Cotton**: The spinning mill's operating rate is decreasing, and the inventory is increasing. The option implied volatility is at a low level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot collar strategy: Hold long spot + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn**: The price has certain fluctuations. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [13]. - **Starch**: The price is relatively stable. The option implied volatility is at a relatively low historical level. Directional strategy: Not provided; Volatility strategy: Not provided; Spot hedging strategy: Not provided [13]. 3.5.5 Other Options - **Log**: The price is decreasing. The option implied volatility is at a relatively high level. Directional strategy: Not provided; Volatility strategy: Not provided; Spot hedging strategy: Not provided [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's interest - rate cut and expansionary signals, along with China's relatively loose policy signals, create a positive sentiment in the有色金属 market. Different metals have different price trends based on their own supply and demand fundamentals [5][8]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to continue rising, supported by supply tightening expectations [5]. - For aluminum, prices are expected to rebound due to factors such as inventory reduction and supply disruptions [8]. - For lead, the price shows a relatively strong trend in the short - term as the social inventory of lead ingots is at a low level [10]. - For zinc, in the short - term, the price is expected to follow copper and aluminum to strengthen, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains unchanged [12]. - For tin, after the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen [15]. - For nickel, the short - term price may turn to a volatile trend [17]. - For lithium carbonate, there may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large [20]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing [23]. - For stainless steel, the market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper Market Information - The Fed's interest - rate cut and bond - buying plan led to a 0.78% increase in the LME 3M copper contract to $11,559 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,770 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipt decreased by 0.1 tons to 29,000 tons [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Short - term prices are expected to continue rising, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 91,200 - 93,300 yuan per ton and the LME 3M copper in the range of $11,450 - $11,800 per ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The Fed's actions led to a 0.6% increase in LME aluminum to $2,862 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,960 yuan per ton. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased slightly, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 521,000 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - Prices are expected to rebound, with the SHFE aluminum main contract operating in the range of 21,800 - 22,200 yuan per ton and the LME 3M aluminum in the range of $2,830 - $2,900 per ton [8]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.26% to 17,121 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S lead fell $4.5 to $1,987.5 per ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price shows a relatively strong trend due to low social inventory of lead ingots [10]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.08% to 23,095 yuan per ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $3 to $3,103.5 per ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short - term, the price is expected to strengthen following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [12]. Tin Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract rose 3.30% to 322,630 yuan per ton. The supply shortage has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns. The demand in traditional fields is weak, while emerging fields provide long - term support [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - After the release of macro risks, the price may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 300,000 - 330,000 yuan per ton and the overseas LME tin in the range of $39,000 - $42,000 per ton [15]. Nickel Market Information - The SHFE nickel main contract fell 0.64% to 116,150 yuan per ton. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price rebounded [16]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term price may turn to a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see, with the SHFE nickel price operating in the range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan per ton and the LME 3M nickel in the range of $13,500 - $15,500 per ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index rose 0.99% to 91,969 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed at 95,980 yuan, up 3.43% [19]. Strategy Viewpoint - There may be no clear trend in the short - term, and price fluctuations are likely to be large. It is recommended to wait and see, with the LC2605 contract operating in the range of 93,200 - 98,600 yuan per ton [20]. Alumina Market Information - On December 10, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.16% to 2,541 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell to 2,710 yuan per ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price fell to $311 per ton [22]. Strategy Viewpoint - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term as the price is approaching the cost line and the supply reduction expectation is increasing. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2,400 - 2,700 yuan per ton [23]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless steel main contract rose 0.44% to 12,555 yuan per ton. The social inventory decreased to 1,080,300 tons, with a 0.54% month - on - month decrease [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market is waiting for effective supply - side control and the release of downstream demand to break the current deadlock [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose 0.58% to 20,930 yuan per ton. The domestic three - place inventory decreased to 49,000 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The price is likely to follow the aluminum price in the short - term [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Although the geopolitical premium of oil has disappeared and OPEC has increased production in a very limited scale, and its supply has not yet increased significantly, so it is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, the oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. - After the positive factors of methanol are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. There are still pressures on the port due to high import arrivals and potential maintenance of olefin plants. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals of methanol still have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. - The urea market is showing signs of improvement in supply - demand. The lower price has support, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. - For rubber, currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. - The PVC market has a poor supply - demand situation. Under the reality of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the pattern of over - supply. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. - For PTA, the supply - side unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. The demand - side load is expected to remain high in the short term, but the processing fee has limited upside space. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is expected to decline in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. The valuation is currently neutral - to - low, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 5.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.25%, at 443.70 yuan/barrel; related high - sulfur refined oil futures also declined. The geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC has increased production in a limited scale, and its supply has not increased significantly [7]. - **Strategic View**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short term. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [3]. Fuel Oil - **Market Information**: High - sulfur fuel oil closed down 16.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.65%, at 2427.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 5.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.17%, at 3009.00 yuan/ton. In the weekly data of Fujeirah port, gasoline inventory decreased by 0.26 million barrels to 6.96 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.63%; diesel inventory decreased by 0.39 million barrels to 3.19 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 10.91%; fuel oil inventory increased by 1.55 million barrels to 13.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 12.62%; total refined oil inventory increased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.93 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.88% [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 3, in Lunan increased by 5.5, in Inner Mongolia decreased by 5. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 13 yuan, at 2053 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 1, at - 76 [3]. - **Strategic View**: After the positive factors are realized, the market will enter short - term consolidation. The port inventory is further reduced, but there are still pressures in the future. The overall supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals have certain pressures. It is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong decreased by 10, remained stable in Henan and Hubei. The 01 - contract increased by 2 yuan, at 1645 yuan, with a basis of + 25. The 1 - 5 spread was + 0, at - 68 [6]. - **Strategic View**: The market is rising in shock, and the basis and inter - month spread have strengthened. The demand has improved in the short term, and the enterprise's pre - sales have increased significantly. The export is gradually gathering at the port, and the port inventory has slightly increased. The supply is expected to decline seasonally, and the supply - demand situation has improved. The price has support at the bottom, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock. It is recommended to consider buying on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded strongly, possibly due to the escalating signs of the Thailand - Cambodia conflict. The low inventory of RU on the exchange and the Thailand - Cambodia conflict are positive factors for the rubber price. The long - side believes that factors such as weather and rubber forest conditions in Southeast Asia may limit rubber production, the seasonal pattern usually turns upward in the second half of the year, and China's demand is expected to improve. The short - side believes that the macro - expectation is uncertain, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the positive impact of supply may be less than expected. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than last week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than last week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of November 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 110.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3 tons, an increase of 2.1% [8][9][10][11]. - **Strategic View**: Currently hold a neutral - to - bullish view. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks with a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy, and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 39 yuan, at 4328 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4330 (- 30) yuan/ton, with a basis of 2 (+ 9) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the operating rate of the calcium - carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [14]. - **Strategic View**: The comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historically low level, but the supply - side maintenance is less, and the production is at a historical high. The domestic demand is about to enter the off - season, and the demand - side is under pressure. Although exports to India are expected to remain high, it is still difficult to digest the excess production capacity. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand in China, it is difficult to reverse the over - supply pattern. Before substantial production cuts in the industry, it is advisable to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5285 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of pure benzene was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton; the basis of pure benzene was - 14 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of styrene was 6630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active contract of styrene was 6469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 138 yuan/ton; the basis was 161 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated device profit of EB was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu port was 16.42 tons, an inventory build - up of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the operating rate of PS was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the operating rate of EPS was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the operating rate of ABS was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [17]. - **Strategic View**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral - to - low, and there is a large upward repair space for valuation. The supply of pure benzene is still relatively abundant. The operating rate of styrene continues to increase, and the port inventory continues to build up significantly. The overall operating rate of three S in the demand - side is rising in shock. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6561 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 44 yuan/ton, a weakening of 34 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.93 tons; the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19 yuan/ton [20]. - **Strategic View**: OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in the first quarter of 2026, and the oil price may have bottomed out. The downward space for PE valuation is limited, but the number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period, which exerts great pressure on the market. The overall inventory is being reduced at a high level, which will support the price. As the seasonal off - season approaches, the raw material inventory of agricultural films in the demand - side may peak, and the overall operating rate will decline in shock. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6162 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 48 yuan/ton, a weakening of 21 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 4.75 tons; the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 1.29 tons; the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 399 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 37 yuan/ton [22]. - **Strategic View**: The EIA monthly report predicts that global oil inventory will rebound, and the supply surplus may expand. There is still 145 tons of planned production capacity on the supply - side, with relatively high pressure. The downstream operating rate fluctuates seasonally on the demand - side. Under the background of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a historical high in the same period. It is expected that the market will be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost - end changes in the first quarter of next year [24]. PX, PTA, and Ethylene Glycol PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6754 yuan. The PX CFR remained unchanged, at 832 US dollars. The basis was 39 yuan (+ 32), and the 1 - 3 spread was 8 yuan (+ 8). The operating rate in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate in Asia was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the overseas Saudi Satorp was restarted. The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. In November, South Korea exported 39 tons of PX to China, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5 tons. At the end of October, the inventory was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. The PXN was 269 US dollars (- 1), the South Korean PX - MX was 123 US dollars (+ 2), and the naphtha crack spread was 108 US dollars (- 5) [26]. - **Strategic View**: Currently, the PX operating rate remains at a high level, and there are many PTA maintenance operations downstream, with a relatively low overall operating rate center. The large - scale PTA production and the expectation of the upcoming off - season downstream suppress the PTA processing fee. The low PTA operating rate makes it difficult to continuously reduce the PX inventory. It is expected that PX will have a slight inventory build - up in December. Currently, the valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 28 yuan, at 4616 yuan. The spot price in East China decreased by 25 yuan, at 4605 yuan. The basis was - 25 yuan (+ 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 73.7%, unchanged month - on - month. The domestic situation remained largely unchanged, and the Chinese - Taiwan CAPCO was under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 91.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Some devices were restarted or under maintenance, and some new devices were put into production. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 2% to 85%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 3% to 69%. On December 5, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month inventory reduction of 0.4 tons. The spot processing fee of PTA decreased by 24 yuan, to 154 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 5 yuan, to

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoints - Soybeans and soybean meal are expected to trade sideways. The bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, but there is support as they enter the destocking season [2][4] - Palm oil may reverse the current situation of inventory accumulation in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 due to seasonal production declines, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] - The international sugar price may lack significant improvement until Q1 2026, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long - term, with short - term观望 advised [11] - Zhengzhou cotton is unlikely to have a unilateral trend in the short - term, although there is some upward pressure from capital [14] - The egg futures contracts may be overvalued, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] - For live pigs, it is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20] Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal Market Information - Overnight CBOT soybeans closed slightly higher due to export demand. Brazilian soybean premiums were stable, and the cost of soybean arrivals in China was stable. On Wednesday, domestic soybean meal spot prices rose by 10 yuan, with the price in East China at 3010 yuan/ton. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume at oil mills to be 2.05583 million tons, down from 2.2116 million tons last week. Last week, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased [2] - Brazil's main planting areas are forecast to have more rainfall in the next two weeks, and the soybean planting rate has reached 94%. However, Argentina's main producing areas are expected to have less rainfall. The global soybean annual inventory - to - sales ratio is still relatively high, and it is expected that soybean arrival costs will mainly fluctuate in the absence of significant problems in South American weather. As of December 2, institutions reported soybean purchases of 8.76 million tons in September, 7.73 million tons in October, 6.52 million tons in November, and 4.85 million tons in December [2] Strategy - The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward potential requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and crushing margins are under pressure. However, as they enter the destocking season, there is some support, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [4] Fats and Oils Market Information - MPOB's November data showed that Malaysian palm oil production decreased, but exports were sluggish, and the market was more bearish in the short - term. However, with the pre - Spring Festival restocking, Malaysian palm oil export demand is expected to improve. On Wednesday, domestic fats and oils first fell and then recovered. Foreign capital slightly increased long positions in palm oil and short positions in other fats and oils. Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation is suppressing the market, but there is still an expectation of destocking in Southeast Asian production areas in the medium - term [6] Strategy - This year's palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia has exceeded expectations, suppressing the palm oil market. However, due to seasonal production declines, the current situation of inventory accumulation may reverse in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, and it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][8] Sugar Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou sugar futures slightly decreased. The closing price of the May contract was 5225 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton or 0.06% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in different regions remained unchanged. As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi had started production in the 2025/26 crushing season, 7 less than the same period last year. In mid - November, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugar cane crushing volume of 18.761 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.3%, and sugar production of 0.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. As of November 30, 2025, India had crushed 48.6 million tons of sugar cane, a year - on - year increase of 15.2 million tons, and produced 4.135 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.375 million tons [10] Strategy - It is estimated that the production of major sugar - producing countries will increase in the new crushing season, and the global supply - demand relationship has shifted from shortage to surplus. The international sugar price may not improve significantly until Q1 2026. With the continuous opening of the domestic out - of - quota import profit window, the long - term trend is bearish. However, the domestic sugar price is at a relatively low level, and short - term观望 is advised [11] Cotton Market Information - On Wednesday, the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures continued to fluctuate. The closing price of the May contract was 13,760 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous trading day. The spot price of the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,004 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The 2025/26 global cotton production forecast was下调 by 60,000 tons to 26.08 million tons in December compared to November. As of the week of December 5, the spinning mill operating rate was 65.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.47 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons year - on - year [13] Strategy - From a fundamental perspective, although the peak season was not strong, demand was not too bad after the peak season. The downstream operating rate remained at a medium level, and the previous price decline had digested the bearish news of a domestic bumper harvest. With the rebound of commodities, there was some capital pushing up the cotton price in the short - term, but there was no strong driving force in the short - term, and the probability of a unilateral trend in Zhengzhou cotton was low [14] Eggs Market Information - Yesterday, national egg prices were stable or increased, with the average price in the main producing areas rising 0.05 yuan to 3.06 yuan/jin. The market had little remaining inventory, and demand in the sales areas was okay, but the enthusiasm of dealers to purchase was average. Egg prices are expected to be generally stable with slight increases today [16] Strategy - Based on the current "weak reality" of the egg industry, the futures market has anticipated future capacity reduction, giving high premiums to far - term contracts. However, the current capacity reduction is limited, and there is uncertainty in the future rhythm. From the demand side, egg prices are likely to first fall, then stabilize, and then rise. The recent futures price trend is relatively strong, and the valuation of near - and far - term contracts may be too high, so attention should be paid to the upper pressure [17] Live Pigs Market Information - Yesterday, domestic pig prices mostly increased, with some areas remaining stable. Affected by snow - related restocking, the supply in the north was less than demand, and pig prices may increase slightly. In the southwest, supply and demand were both high and in a stalemate, with prices likely to remain stable. In the south, it was difficult to digest the supply, and pig prices may decrease slightly [19] Strategy - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is still large. With the increase in slaughter volume, the average weight of pigs is still high year - on - year and increasing month - on - month. The pressure on the supply side remains. Near - term contracts are still under pressure from the spot market, but may fluctuate due to spot prices and positions. The expectation of far - term capacity reduction is strong, and the downside space may be limited. It is recommended to maintain an inverse spread strategy, gradually shifting from shorting near - term contracts to going long on far - term contracts [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3]. - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3]. - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a partial - long seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for stock index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of combining long synthetic futures options with short futures can also be used [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Index Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,909.52, down 14.56 points or 0.37%, with a trading volume of 781.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.3 billion yuan [4]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,277.36, down 52.63 points or 0.39%, with a trading volume of 1,122.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.4 billion yuan [4]. - Other major indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 also showed varying degrees of decline [4]. 3.2 Option - Based ETF Market Overview - The closing prices of various option - based ETFs such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, and SSE 500ETF showed different degrees of decline, with changes in trading volume and turnover [5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Volume and Position PCR - The volume and position PCR of different option varieties have different changes, which can be used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the turning point of the market [6][7]. 3.4 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Points - The pressure and support points of different option varieties can be seen from the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options [8][10]. 3.5 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different option varieties shows different trends, including changes in at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, etc. [11][12]. 3.6 Strategy and Recommendations - **Financial Stocks Sector (SSE 50ETF)**: The SSE 50ETF shows a volatile consolidation pattern. It is recommended to construct a seller - neutral combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14]. - **Large - Cap Blue - Chip Stocks Sector (SSE 300ETF)**: The SSE 300ETF shows an upward trend after a rebound from a decline. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14]. - **Small - and Medium - Cap Stocks Sector (SSE 500ETF)**: The SSE 500ETF shows a rebound pattern. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [15]. - **Large - and Medium - Sized Stocks Sector (SZSE 100ETF)**: The SZSE 100ETF shows a slight upward trend in a high - level volatile state. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [15]. - **ChiNext Sector (ChiNext ETF)**: The ChiNext ETF shows an upward trend after a rebound. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [16]. - **Small - and Medium - Cap Stocks Sector (CSI 1000)**: The CSI 1000 shows a pattern of decline followed by a rebound and consolidation. It is recommended to construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and dynamically adjust the position delta to keep it short [16]. 3.7 Option Charts - The report provides option charts for various varieties such as the SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, SSE 500ETF, ChiNext ETF, SZSE 100ETF, and CSI 1000, including price trends, volume and position changes, PCR changes, implied volatility changes, etc. [17][33][49][68][84][100]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty at the end of the year due to some funds cashing in on their profits, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the market is expected to be volatile overall under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improving inflation expectations, and pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [6]. - For precious metals, the December Fed interest - rate meeting may be a potential negative factor for the strong international silver price. It is recommended to take profits on silver at an appropriate time [7]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be supported in the short - term, but there are also differences. For example, zinc has limited upside potential in the medium - term, while nickel may be range - bound in the short - term [10][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [30][32]. - For energy chemicals, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips; oil prices are recommended for a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and short - term waiting; other chemicals have different supply - demand situations and corresponding strategies [50][52]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks. For example, for live pigs, keep an anti - arbitrage idea; for eggs, be aware of the over - valuation of the contract; for soybean meal, it is expected to oscillate [73][75][78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized expanding domestic demand. A "polysilicon platform company" was established, Alibaba set up a C - end business group for Qianwen, and Zhongke Shuguang and Haiguang Information will hold an investor briefing on terminating major asset restructuring [2]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious at the end of the year but optimistic in the long - term, and pay attention to important meetings [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the prices of main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS changed, and there were relevant news about the economy and bond issuance. The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the driving effect of new policy - based financial instruments and the debt balance limit increment on the fourth - quarter growth [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. The dovish stance of the potential Fed chair candidate drove the precious metals market, and Trump will conduct the last round of Fed chair interviews [7]. - **Strategy**: The Fed interest - rate meeting may be a negative factor for silver. It is recommended to take profits on silver and pay attention to the price ranges of gold and silver [7]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed interest - rate meeting, the dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices declined. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic basis changed [9]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to remain high in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and macro events [10]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Due to the approaching Fed interest - rate meeting, market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices fell. Inventory and other indicators changed [11]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to be supported, and pay attention to the price ranges [12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term upside is limited [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [16]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic delivery inventory and a positive non - ferrous sector atmosphere [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices were weak. Spot premiums and cost prices changed [17]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices may be range - bound in the short - term, and pay attention to the price ranges [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell. There were supply and demand issues, such as supply concerns and weak traditional demand [19]. - **Strategy**: After the release of macro risks, tin prices may strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price index of lithium carbonate rose slightly, and the futures price fell [21]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear trend direction in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices fell. There were changes in basis, inventory, and other indicators [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to supply - side policies and ore policies [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [25]. - **Strategy**: High inventory pressure remains. Focus on the actual implementation of steel mill production cuts [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [26]. - **Strategy**: Prices may follow aluminum prices, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand and delivery [27]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [29]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter storage price and macro factors [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices fell slightly. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators [31]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, with a downward pressure in the range [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell. There were changes in inventory, basis, and other indicators. Soda ash prices fell slightly, and there were changes in inventory and other indicators [33][35]. - **Strategy**: For glass, maintain a bearish view; for soda ash, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating, and maintain a cautious and bearish view [34][35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices fell slightly, and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly [36]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the macro situation and the price changes of manganese ore and electricity. Manganese silicon has a poor supply - demand situation, while ferrosilicon has a balanced supply - demand [37][38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices fell, and polysilicon prices rose [39][41]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the range [40][42][43]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly sorted. There were potential positive factors and different views on the rise and fall [45][46]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish idea, and consider short - term long positions on dips and hold hedging positions [50]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related refined oil prices fell. There were changes in inventory [51]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Adopt a low - buying and high - selling range strategy and wait and see in the short - term [52]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [53]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to be sorted at a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and there were changes in basis and spread [54]. - **Strategy**: Urea prices are expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions at low prices [54][55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [56]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [57]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [58]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rises, as the supply is strong and the demand is weak [59]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [60]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and pay attention to the risk of a rebound [61]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [62]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on the expected trading [63]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [64]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to accumulate inventory slightly in December. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [67]. - **Strategy**: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread when the price rises [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices fell. There were changes in basis, spread, and other indicators [69]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the supply - surplus pattern at the cost side in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [70]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices were half - stable and half - rising. The supply and demand were in a stalemate [72]. - **Strategy**: Keep an anti - arbitrage idea, and gradually shift from shorting the near - term contract to going long on the far - term contract [73]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices were mostly stable with a few rising. The market trading was smooth [74]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the over - valuation of the egg contract [75]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices fell. Domestic soybean meal prices fell slightly, and the trading volume was good [76]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal prices are expected to oscillate [78]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Malaysian palm oil export data was poor, and the Argentine soybean export tax was reduced. Domestic oil prices fell [79]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on palm oil on dips [80]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices were stable [81]. - **Strategy**: Be bearish on the international sugar price in the long - term, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton futures prices oscillated, and spot prices fell slightly [85]. - **Strategy**: It is unlikely for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to decline. The terminal demand remains weak, and the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is still prominent. Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom, but attention should be paid to the winter storage price situation. Future attention should also be focused on the statements of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, which may affect the macro environment [2]. - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate widely. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction. The spot still has certain support. However, due to the expected loose supply pattern of iron ore in 2026 and the lack of imagination on the demand side, there is still pressure for the price to decline periodically within the range, and the support for the weighted contract is expected to be around 750 yuan/ton [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to whether there are sudden situations in the manganese ore sector and their possible strong driving force on the market [9]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to run weakly, with the support level at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, and the contradiction is not prominent. The recent low performance of coking coal futures and the decline of the polysilicon futures price have affected the overall sentiment of industrial silicon [12]. - The polysilicon market shows a tug - of - war between reality and expectation, and between the upstream and downstream of the industry. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range. Future attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and the situation of warehouse receipt registration [14]. - For glass, in the absence of unexpected changes, a bearish view on the glass market is recommended. For soda ash, the market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [17][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) Market Information - Rebar: The closing price of the main contract was 3079 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.40%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 35,821 tons, a decrease of 10,455 tons compared to the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.593747 million lots, an increase of 116,170 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the main contract was 3252 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.18%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113,732 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The open interest of the main contract was 1.108414 million lots, an increase of 29,738 lots. The spot prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased by 40 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - Rebar: The production this week has significantly declined, and the inventory continues to be depleted, showing a neutral - to - stable overall performance. - Hot - rolled coil: The production has decreased, but the apparent demand remains neutral. It is difficult to deplete the inventory, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. The steel demand in the housing construction sector is under pressure, and future attention should be paid to the winter storage price [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract (I2605) closed at 757.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.39% (-3.00). The open interest changed by +12,385 lots to 441,800 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,300 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 784 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 75.17 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 9.03% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly in the latest period. The shipment from Australia increased, mainly due to the rebound of Rio Tinto and FMG's shipments. The shipment from Brazil decreased, with a significant decline in Vale's shipments. The shipment from non - mainstream countries reached a high for the year, and the near - term arrival volume decreased month - on - month. - Demand: The average daily pig iron output was 232.3 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons month - on - month. The number of blast furnaces under maintenance was more than those under复产, and the annual inspections increased with relatively long durations. The profitability of steel mills rebounded slightly after continuous decline, but less than 40% of steel mills were profitable. - Inventory: The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The overall data was marginally neutral after the decline in pig iron production, and the pressure on the raw material end was relatively limited. The overall inventory of iron ore is high, and there is no sign of effectively resolving the structural inventory contradiction, but the spot still has certain support [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - Manganese silicon: The main contract (SM603) closed down 0.07% at 5732 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a converted basis of 5910 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 178 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract (SF603) closed up 0.33% at 5462 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 138 yuan/ton over the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and a weak downstream building materials industry. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. The future market trend will be led by the direction of the black metal sector and the issues of manganese ore for manganese silicon and electricity price increase for ferrosilicon. Particular attention should be paid to the manganese ore sector [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The main contract (SI2601) closed at 8340 yuan/ton, with a change of -3.86% (-335). The weighted open interest changed by +39,071 lots to 498,264 lots. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton respectively [11]. - Polysilicon: The main contract (PS2601) closed at 55,610 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.95% (+1065). The weighted open interest changed by +12,302 lots to 270,926 lots. The average prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feed material in the spot market were unchanged. The basis was -3310 yuan/ton. A new polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025 [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The production in the southwest region is expected to decline in December due to the dry season, while the production in the northwest region is expected to be stable. The overall demand is slightly weak, and the price is expected to run weakly with support at 8100 - 8300 yuan/ton [12]. - Polysilicon: The production is expected to continue to decline in December, but the decline may be limited due to the capacity ramp - up in some northwest bases. The inventory accumulation pressure before the Spring Festival is difficult to relieve. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range, and attention should be paid to the progress of state - owned reserve procurement and warehouse receipt registration [14]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract closed at 984 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (-18). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 59.442 million cases, a decrease of 2.92 million cases (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 24,652 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 2,658 lots [16]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1125 yuan/ton, down 0.71% (-8). The sample enterprise's weekly inventory was 1.5386 million tons, a decrease of 48,800 tons (-4.68%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced their positions by 30,481 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced their positions by 31,328 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: In November, several production lines in the domestic glass industry were shut down for maintenance. The real - estate industry still has downward pressure, and a bearish view on the glass market is recommended in the absence of unexpected changes [17]. - Soda ash: The overall supply pressure is still large, and the demand is relatively flat. The production enterprises mainly execute previous orders and have a strong mentality of stabilizing prices. The Alxa Phase II project is planned to be put into operation on December 11, which is expected to bring certain pressure to the market. The market is expected to continue the weak and volatile trend in the short term, and a cautiously bearish view is maintained [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed's approaching interest rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting releasing loose policy signals, combined with supply - side disturbances and inventory changes, will affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Different metals have different price trends and influencing factors, and short - term price trends are mainly affected by macro events, supply - demand relationships and inventory levels [5][8][11] Summary of Key Points by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the US dollar index rebounded, the domestic equity market weakened, and copper prices pulled back. LME copper 3M contract closed down 1.76% to $11,470/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,020 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1,125 tons to 165,675 tons, and the domestic daily warehouse receipts decreased to 30,000 tons [4] - **Strategy View**: The approaching Fed's interest rate meeting is likely to continue the rate - cut rhythm. The expected reduction in production due to tight mines and the tightening of spot supply support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to remain high. The reference operating range for SHFE copper main contract today is 90,500 - 92,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,400 - 11,650 dollars/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: As the Fed's interest rate meeting approached, the market sentiment turned cautious, and aluminum prices declined. LME aluminum closed down 1.42% to $2,845/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,835 yuan/ton. The total position of SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased significantly by 63,000 to 661,000 lots. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 523,000 tons [7] - **Strategy View**: The domestic aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, the US spot aluminum premium remains high, and the LME aluminum inventory continues to decline. With supply disturbances and stable downstream operating rates, aluminum prices are strongly supported. The reference operating range for SHFE aluminum main contract today is 21,700 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,820 - 2,880 dollars/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.99% to 17,167 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell 19.5 dollars to $1,992/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 20,400 tons [10] - **Strategy View**: The port inventory of lead ore has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased normally. The operating rates of primary lead, recycled lead, and downstream battery enterprises have all increased. Although the smelter's factory inventory has continued to rise, the domestic lead ingot social inventory has decreased to a low level, and lead prices are expected to run strongly in the short term [11] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 0.96% to 23,077 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell 24 dollars to $3,100.5/ton compared to the previous day. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,190 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 430 tons to 136,000 tons [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC has declined again. The domestic supply has narrowed marginally, and the LME zinc inventory has slowly accumulated. In the medium term, the zinc industry's supply surplus cycle remains, and the upside space is limited. In the short term, due to the narrowing of supply and the positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to follow copper and aluminum to run strongly [13] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 9, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 312,320 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from the previous day. The supply shortage of raw materials has been slightly alleviated, but there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The demand in traditional fields is weak, and the long - term demand from emerging fields provides support for tin prices. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was afraid of high prices, and spot trading was cold [14] - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances determine the short - term price. After the macro - risks are released, tin prices may stabilize and strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 42,000 dollars/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 117,350 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable, and the nickel ore price remained stable, while the nickel iron price rebounded significantly [16] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, short - term nickel prices may turn to volatile operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term reference operating range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC late - session index reported 91,069 yuan, up 0.11% from the previous working day. The LC2605 contract closed at 92,800 yuan, down 2.15% from the previous day [20] - **Strategy View**: The domestic futures market was under pressure on Tuesday. There are differences in the market between supply release and demand expectation realization. There is uncertainty in the resumption time of production at Jianxiaowo and the first - quarter consumption. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 90,900 - 94,500 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 9, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.48% to 2,597 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 15 yuan/ton to 2,720 yuan/ton, and the overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB fell 1 dollar/ton to $311/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 37,000 tons to 254,300 tons [23] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, shipments will gradually resume, and the ore price is expected to decline. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the short - term recommendation is to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,500 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi remained flat. The raw material price of high - nickel iron remained flat, and the waste - steel recycling price increased by 100 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased to 1.0803 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% [26] - **Strategy View**: Although the sales improved in November, the high - inventory pressure is still significant. The focus of the market should be on the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts. If the supply side can be effectively controlled and the demand for downstream low - level replenishment is released, it is expected to break the current supply - demand deadlock [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast - aluminum alloy weakened yesterday. The main AD2602 contract closed down 1.54% to 20,810 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 30,000 lots, and the domestic three - place inventory decreased by 10 tons to 49,200 tons [29] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and the supply - side disturbances continue. The price has strong support below, but the demand is relatively volatile, and there is pressure from delivery above. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate with aluminum prices [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently wait for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness by observing export decline when prices fall [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is still pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. - For rubber, adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. - For PVC, the industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, when the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. - For PX, it is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. - For PTA, with the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main crude oil futures on INE closed down 10.30 yuan/barrel, a 2.26% decline, at 446.10 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 58.00 yuan/ton (2.34%) to 2418.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures dropped 52.00 yuan/ton (1.70%) to 3014.00 yuan/ton. China's weekly crude oil data showed a 1.91 - million - barrel draw in arrival inventory to 205.87 million barrels, a 2.03 - million - barrel build in gasoline commercial inventory to 87.33 million barrels, a 1.13 - million - barrel draw in diesel commercial inventory to 90.57 million barrels, and a 0.90 - million - barrel build in total refined oil commercial inventory to 177.90 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high. Currently, wait and see for signs of OPEC's export price - support willingness [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The Taicang price dropped by 7, the Lunan price remained stable, the Inner Mongolia price fell by 5, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped by 23 yuan to 2066 yuan/ton, and the basis was +7. The 1 - 5 spread was +11, reported at - 77 [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. With high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant maintenance, there is pressure on the port. The overall supply is high, and the market is expected to consolidate at low levels. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract dropped by 3 yuan to 1643 yuan, the basis was +37, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 4, reported at - 68 [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. The improvement in demand from reserves and compound fertilizer production, along with a seasonal decline in supply, has led to a better supply - demand situation. With export policy and cost support, it is expected to build a bottom in an oscillating manner. It is advisable to buy on dips [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were weakly consolidating. The potential bullish factors include the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and low inventory warrants on the exchange. The bulls are optimistic about the seasonal increase and demand expectations, while the bears are concerned about weak demand, uncertain macro - expectations, and the EUDR postponement. The tire factory operating rate was mixed, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish approach. Suggest short - term buying on pullbacks and quick entry and exit. Hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract dropped by 64 yuan to 4367 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4360 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 7 (+24) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 287 (+8) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 79.9% (down 0.3%), with the calcium - carbide method at 82.7% (down 1%) and the ethylene method at 73.4% (up 1.1%). The downstream operating rate was 49.1% (down 0.5%), and both factory and social inventories increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The industry has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply and weak demand. Before substantial production cuts, it is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [13][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene both declined. The non - integrated styrene profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton (up 15.5 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 67.29% (down 1.66%), and the Jiangsu port inventory increased by 1.59 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 42.34% (up 0.10%), with mixed operating rates for PS, EPS, and ABS [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on non - integrated styrene profits as the non - integrated styrene profit is neutral - to - low and has room for upward valuation repair [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6557 yuan/ton (down 91 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6650 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton), and the basis was 78 yuan/ton (strengthened by 41 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 84.12% (down 0.05%). The production enterprise and trader inventories decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 44.8% (up 0.11%). The LL1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan/ton (widened by 9 yuan/ton) [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6192 yuan/ton (down 74 yuan/ton), the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan/ton), and the basis was 69 yuan/ton (strengthened by 14 yuan/ton). The upstream operating rate was 77.97% (up 0.8%). The production enterprise, trader, and port inventories all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 53.7% (up 0.13%). The LL - PP spread was 365 yuan/ton (narrowed by 17 yuan/ton) [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, wait for a change in the cost - side supply - oversupply pattern in the first quarter of next year, which may support the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract dropped by 62 yuan to 6780 yuan, the PX CFR price dropped by 9 dollars to 832 dollars, and the basis was 7 yuan (+26). The 1 - 3 spread was 0 yuan (+36). The Chinese and Asian operating rates both decreased slightly. Some overseas plants restarted, and some domestic PTA plants were under maintenance. The November PX exports from South Korea to China decreased year - on - year, and the inventory increased in October [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to have a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, pay attention to buying opportunities on dips [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract dropped by 50 yuan to 4644 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 20 yuan to 4630 yuan, and the basis was - 26 yuan (+4). The 1 - 5 spread was - 64 yuan (+12). The PTA operating rate remained unchanged, with some domestic plant changes. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The social inventory decreased in November, and the processing fees increased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the stabilization and recovery of processing fees, unexpected maintenance is expected to decrease. Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips based on expectations [28]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract dropped by 10 yuan to 3691 yuan, the East China spot price dropped by 45 yuan to 3654 yuan, and the basis was - 11 yuan (-2). The 1 - 5 spread was - 116 yuan (-8). The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, with some plant restarts and shutdowns. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the terminal operating rate decreased. The import arrival forecast was 15.5 million tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.6 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand outlook is weak in the medium - term. Although the current valuation is neutral - to - low, pay attention to the rebound risk due to an increase in unexpected maintenance [30].

贵金属日报 2025-12-10 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.20 %，报 955.82 元/克，沪银涨 3.55 %，报 14116.00 元/千克；COMEX 金报 4238.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 银报 61.41 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率报 4.18%，美元指数报 99.23 ； 昨日美联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态转向鸽派，驱动贵金属，尤其是白银价格表现极为强势。 美联储主席热门候选人哈塞特在被问及"若被提名为新任联储主席，是否会进行大幅降息？" 的问题时表示"当前具备这么做的条件"，与其前几日的偏谨慎表态相比出现较大转变。 而在本周，特朗普将启动最后一轮美联储主席面试，候选人包括当前最热门的哈塞特、美联储 前理事凯文沃什、现任联储理事鲍曼以及贝莱德的里克里德尔。而在采访中，特朗普也明确表 示"是否快速降息是新任美联储主席人选的试金石"。 【策略观点】 在特朗普进行面试的同时，美联储也将会在明天凌晨两点召开 12 月议息会 ...