农产品早报 2025-12-12 五矿期货农产品早报 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 隔夜 CBOT 大豆小幅收涨，受出口需求支撑。周四国内豆粕现货涨 30 元，华东报 3040 元/吨，豆粕成交 一般、提货较好，消息面称通关延迟。MYSTEEL 预计本周油厂大豆压榨量为 205.583 万吨，上周压榨大 豆 221.16 万吨，上周饲企库存天数为 8.49 天环比上升 0.32 天，上周国内大豆、豆粕均去库，因到港量 及压榨量环比下滑，国内豆粕表需下滑程度相对较小。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 巴西主要种植区未来两周预报降雨偏多，大豆种植率已达 94%。然而阿根廷主产区预计降雨量持续较少， 产区还未达到一帆风顺。全球大豆预测年度库销比同比仍较高，尚不足以产生 CBOT 大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. - After the bullish factors are realized, the methanol futures market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. - The urea futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. - The current view on rubber is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. - The PVC fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. - The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. - For polyethylene, the crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. - For PTA, the processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, and the inventory accumulation rate at the port may slow down. However, the medium - term supply situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the rebound risk [29]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 4.60 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.04%, at 439.70 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 38.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.57%, at 2382.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 20.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.67%, at 2986.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.81 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42%; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 411.92 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%; gasoline inventories increased by 6.40 million barrels to 220.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.98%; diesel inventories increased by 2.50 million barrels to 116.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.19%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.20 million barrels to 21.69 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 5.26%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.38 million barrels to 42.57 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has completely dissipated and OPEC has increased production at a very low level, and OPEC's supply has not yet increased significantly, so oil prices should not be overly bearish in the short - term. Maintain the range strategy of buying low and selling high for oil prices, but currently, oil prices need to test OPEC's willingness to support prices through exports. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 27, in Lunan by 7.5, and in Inner Mongolia by 2.5. The 01 contract of the futures market increased by 21 yuan, reported at 2074 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 31. The 1 - 5 spread increased by 30, reported at - 46 [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market will enter a short - term consolidation. Although port inventory has decreased, future port pressure still exists due to high import arrivals and potential port olefin plant overhauls. The methanol fundamentals still face pressure and are expected to consolidate at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: The spot price in Shandong increased by 10, while those in Henan and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract decreased by 7 yuan, reported at 1638 yuan, the basis was + 42, and the 1 - 5 spread was + 3, reported at - 65 [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures market continues to rise in shock. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve demand and the increase in compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. The overall supply - demand situation of urea has improved, and it is expected to build a bottom in shock at a low valuation. It is recommended to go long at low prices [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and consolidated. The low inventory of exchange - traded RU warehouse receipts was a bullish factor. The bulls were optimistic due to seasonal expectations and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of December 4, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 62.99%, 0.92 percentage points lower than the previous week and 4.16 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 73.50%, 1.13 percentage points higher than the previous week and 5.15 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Both domestic and export shipments slowed down. As of December 7, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 112.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.1 tons, an increase of 1.9%; the total social inventory of dark rubber was 73 tons, an increase of 2.4%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%; and the total rubber inventory in Qingdao was 48.48 (+ 0.98) tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current view is neutral. It is recommended to operate in the short - term and hold the hedging position of buying RU2601 and shorting RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 52 yuan, reported at 4276 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4300 (- 30) yuan/ton, the basis was 24 (+ 22) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 286 (- 2) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2550 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 870 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 745 (0) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 710 (0) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%; the calcium carbide method was 82.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 73.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. The in - plant inventory was 32.6 tons (+ 0.3), and the social inventory was 105.9 tons (+ 1.6) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a historical low and the valuation pressure is small in the short - term, the supply is high and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at high prices before the industry substantially reduces production [14][16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 5265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5428 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 1 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton; the basis was 169 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 101 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton; the non - integrated EB plant profit was - 225.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.5 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was - 6 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 67.29%, a decrease of 1.66%; the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.42 tons, an increase of 1.59 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.34%, an increase of 0.10%; the PS operating rate was 57.60%, an increase of 1.70%; the EPS operating rate was 54.75%, a decrease of 1.52%; the ABS operating rate was 71.20%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately low, and there is a large space for valuation repair. When the inventory reversal point appears, one can go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was 63 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 84.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 45.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.93 tons, and the trader inventory was 4.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 44.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.11%. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The crude oil price may have bottomed out, and the downward space of PE valuation is limited. However, the large number of warehouse receipts suppresses the market. It is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 77.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 54.63 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.75 tons, the trader inventory was 20.05 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 tons, and the port inventory was 6.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 53.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The LL - PP spread was 364 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high overall inventory pressure, there is no prominent contradiction in the short - term. It is expected to be supported when the supply - surplus pattern of the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 80 yuan, reported at 6834 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 4 US dollars, reported at 836 US dollars. The basis was - 5 yuan (- 44) according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 1 - 3 spread was 18 yuan (+ 10). The PX load in China was 88.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the Asian load was 78.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and the Saudi Satorp plant overseas restarted. The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 13.9 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of December, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 tons. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 tons. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 273 US dollars (+ 4), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 101 US dollars (- 7) [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in December. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 48 yuan, reported at 4664 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 35 yuan, reported at 4640 yuan. The basis was - 21 yuan (+ 4), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 58 yuan (+ 10). The PTA load was 73.7%, unchanged from the previous month. There were few overall changes in domestic plants, and a 550,000 - ton plant of China Taiwan FCFC was under maintenance. The downstream load was 91.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The 300,000 - ton filament and 250,000 - ton staple fiber plants of Hengyi were under maintenance, and the 200,000 - ton long - stopped filament plant of Sanfangxiang restarted. The terminal texturing load decreased by 2% to 83%, and the loom load decreased by 2% to 67%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on December 5 was 216.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons. The PTA spot processing fee increased by 18 yuan to 172 yuan, and the futures processing fee increased by 2 yuan to 193 yuan [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The processing fee is expected to gradually stabilize and repair, and the unexpected overhauls are expected to decrease. The polyester load is expected to remain high in the short - term, but the bottle chip load is difficult to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long based on expectations [27]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 83 yuan, reported at 3599 yuan. The East China

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Fed's rate cut and potential bond - buying, along with China's central economic work conference's loose monetary signals, create a warm sentiment in the market despite geopolitical disturbances. For copper, short - term price may rise but consumption may limit the upward trend. For aluminum, with inventory reduction and supply issues, the price is likely to rebound. For lead, low domestic inventory of deliverable products makes the price strong. For zinc, short - term supply reduction and positive market atmosphere may lead to a stronger price. For tin, supply disruptions may drive the price up after macro - risk release. For nickel, short - term price may turn to a volatile state. For lithium carbonate, due to supply - demand uncertainties, it's advisable to wait and see. For alumina, near - cost prices may lead to production cuts, and it's better to observe. For stainless steel, high inventory is a problem, and supply control may bring a turnaround. For cast aluminum alloy, the price may fluctuate within a range [4][5][6][7][10][12][14][16][20][23][26][29] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: After the Fed's rate cut, the US dollar index is weak, and China's central economic work conference raises loose expectations. LME copper 3M rose 2.37% to $11,833/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 94,080 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 875 tons to 165,850 tons. Domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased, and the spot premium in Shanghai decreased. The import loss was about 1,100 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [4] - **Strategy**: Short - term price may still rise, but the weakening consumption may make the upward movement less smooth. The reference range for SHFE copper is 92,500 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $11,600 - 11,950/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The central economic work conference's policy signals made non - ferrous metals stronger. LME aluminum rose 1.14% to $2,895/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 22,175 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories decreased, and the market transaction was average. The LME aluminum inventory decreased, and the cash/3M remained at a discount [6] - **Strategy**: With the domestic inventory decline, high US spot premium, and low LME inventory, along with supply disruptions and stable downstream production, the aluminum price is likely to rebound. The reference range for SHFE aluminum is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,850 - 2,920/ton [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE lead index rose 0.21% to 17,157 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1,989/ton. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory increased slightly by 0.13 tons to 2.29 tons [9] - **Strategy**: The lead ore port inventory decreased, and factory inventory increased. Both primary and secondary lead production rates are high, and downstream battery production also increased. With low domestic deliverable inventory, the lead price shows a strong trend in the short - term [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.39% to 23,004 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $3,087.5/ton. The zinc social inventory decreased by 0.78 tons to 12.82 tons. The LME zinc inventory slowly increased, and the 3 - 15 spread was still high [11] - **Strategy**: Zinc ore and zinc ingot supply have decreased. With the positive market atmosphere in the non - ferrous sector, the zinc price may follow copper and aluminum to rise in the short - term after breaking through the pressure level [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, SHFE tin fell 0.63% to 320,600 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 127 tons. Although the supply shortage has slightly eased, conflicts in Congo (DRC) and Nigeria still cause concerns. The traditional demand is weak, but emerging sectors provide support. The high price makes the spot trading cold [13] - **Strategy**: In the short - term, supply disruptions are the key factors for the price. After the macro - risk is released, the tin price may strengthen. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for domestic contracts is 300,000 - 330,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 42,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, SHFE nickel fell 0.65% to 115,400 yuan/ton. The spot premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was also stable. The nickel iron price rebounded [15] - **Strategy**: Although there is still a large surplus pressure, the short - term price may turn to a volatile state with the stable nickel iron price and warm macro - atmosphere. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 2.61%, and the LC2605 contract rose 3.02% [19] - **Strategy**: The supply - demand situation has not changed, and the inventory decline has narrowed slightly. There are uncertainties in supply release and demand. With high positions, the price may fluctuate greatly. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the LC2605 contract is 95,800 - 103,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 11, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.28% to 2,534 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas price also dropped. The futures inventory increased [22] - **Strategy**: After the rainy season, the ore shipment is recovering, and the ore price may decline. The alumina production capacity is still in surplus, but with the price close to the cost line, production cuts may increase. It's advisable to wait and see, and the reference range for the domestic contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the stainless - steel contract fell 0.44% to 12,500 yuan/ton. The spot prices in some regions changed slightly, and the raw material prices were mostly stable. The social inventory decreased [25] - **Strategy**: High inventory is still a problem. If the supply is effectively controlled and downstream restocking demand is released, the market may turn around [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The main AD2602 contract rose 0.17% to 20,945 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the inventory decreased [28] - **Strategy**: The cost is firm, and supply disruptions support the price, but the fluctuating demand and delivery pressure limit the upward movement. The price may fluctuate within a range [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock market shows a high - level volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks all in this state [3] - The implied volatility of financial options has decreased but remains at a relatively high level of fluctuation [3] - For ETF options, it is suitable to construct a bullish - biased seller strategy and a call option bull spread combination strategy; for index options, in addition to the above two strategies, an arbitrage strategy of combining long synthetic futures and short futures can be used [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Market and Option Market Overview - **Stock market indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,900.50, down 0.23%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,316.42, up 0.29%; other indices also had different performance in terms of closing price, change, and trading volume [4] - **ETF market**: Different ETFs such as SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc., showed various trends in closing price, trading volume, and trading value [5] - **Option factor - volume and position PCR**: Different option varieties had different volume and position PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength and turning points of the underlying assets [6] - **Option factor - pressure and support points**: Different option varieties had corresponding pressure and support points, which can be seen from the maximum open interest of call and put options [8] - **Option factor - implied volatility**: Different option varieties had different levels of implied volatility, including at - the - money implied volatility and weighted implied volatility, and their changes [11] 3.2 Strategy and Recommendations - **Market segmentation**: The financial option sector is divided into large - cap blue - chip stocks, small - and medium - cap stocks, and ChiNext stocks, with specific indices and ETFs belonging to each segment [13] - **Option strategies for each segment** - **Financial stocks (SSE 50ETF)**: The underlying asset shows a volatile consolidation pattern. Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the position PCR indicates a sideways trend. Strategies include constructing a neutral - biased seller combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Large - cap blue - chip stocks (SSE 300ETF)**: It shows a rebound after over - decline. Implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the position PCR indicates an upward - biased trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [14] - **Small - and medium - cap stocks (SSE 500ETF)**: It shows a rebound and recovery pattern. Implied volatility is below the historical average, and the position PCR indicates a strong sideways trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [15] - **Large - cap stocks (SZSE 100ETF)**: It shows a slightly upward trend in high - level volatility. Implied volatility is around the average, and the position PCR indicates a sideways - downward trend in the long - term. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [15] - **ChiNext (ChiNext ETF)**: It shows a bullish rebound pattern. Implied volatility is at a high level, and the position PCR indicates a strengthening trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - covered call strategy [16] - **Small - and medium - cap stocks (CSI 1000)**: It shows a pattern of rebound and consolidation after high - level decline. Implied volatility is below the average, and the position PCR indicates a weak sideways trend. Strategies include constructing a short - volatility option combination strategy with a short delta position [16] 3.3 Option Charts - Charts of different option varieties such as SSE 50ETF, SSE 300ETF, etc., are provided, including price trends, volume and position trends, implied volatility trends, and other information, which can help investors visually understand the market situation of each option [17][31][48]

黑色建材日报 2025-12-11 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3117 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 38 元/吨（1.234%）。当日注册仓单 40679 吨, 环比增加 4858 吨。主力合约持仓量为 151.4218 万手，环比减少 79529 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3180 元/吨, 环比增加 20/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3282 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 30 元/吨（0.922%）。 当日注册仓单 109014 吨, 环比减少 4718 吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, although there is uncertainty in the market due to some funds cashing in profits at the end of the year, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. In the short - term, focus on the December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference, and in the long - term, the idea is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, at the end of the year, the bond market is expected to remain volatile under the background of weak domestic demand and institutional behavior disturbances. Pay attention to the rebound after the bond market is oversold [7]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, the silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver, and consider taking profit. The reference operating range for Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/g, and for Shanghai silver is 13,232 - 14,500 yuan/kg [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are affected by factors such as Fed policies, supply and demand, and inventory. Some metals are expected to rise in the short - term, while others may be in a volatile state [12][14][20]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and iron ore is expected to oscillate widely. Glass and soda ash markets are recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset [34][36][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber can be considered for short - term long positions on dips, and crude oil is recommended to wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [53][55]. - For agricultural products, different products have different supply - demand situations. For example, the supply pressure of live pigs is still large, and the egg market may have high - valued contracts [75][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market Information**: Commercial aerospace is accelerating "going global", the State Drug Administration will focus on certain products, Vanke will discuss bond extension, and Meta may launch a new model [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed. China's November CPI and PPI data are released, and the IMF raises China's economic growth forecast. The central bank conducts reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to oscillate, and pay attention to the rebound [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver change. The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the price of precious metals [8]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure level of silver and consider taking profit. Provide reference operating ranges for gold and silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Information**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion make copper prices rise. LME and domestic copper inventories change, and the spot premium and import loss are provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to rise in the short - term, and pay attention to inventory changes and policy announcements [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebound. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories change, and the spot premium and processing fee are provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and rebound [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices change, and inventory data of domestic and LME zinc are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, zinc prices are expected to be strong following copper and aluminum, but the medium - term supply surplus cycle remains [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices decline, and inventory and price data are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term due to low domestic social inventory [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices are weak. Spot prices, cost, and nickel - iron prices are provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Nickel prices may oscillate in the short - term, and wait for further signals [20]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rise. Supply and demand situations, including import, production, and consumption, are provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may strengthen after the release of macro risks. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rises, and futures and spot prices are provided [25]. - **Strategy**: There is no clear trend in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the lithium - battery sector [25]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices decline, and inventory, basis, and overseas price data are provided [26]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rise, and inventory and raw - material prices are provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The high - inventory pressure is significant. Pay attention to the actual implementation of steel - mill production cuts [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices rebound, and inventory and trading volume data are provided [30]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices may follow aluminum prices in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise, and inventory and spot - price data are provided [33]. - **Strategy**: Steel products are expected to oscillate at the bottom, and pay attention to the winter - storage price and policy announcements [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rise, and inventory, basis, and shipping data are provided [35]. - **Strategy**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate widely, and pay attention to policy expectations and Fed meetings [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices decline, and inventory and trading - volume data are provided. Soda ash prices decline, and inventory and production - capacity data are provided [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be treated with a bearish mindset, and soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly [38][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices decline, and spot - price data are provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the black - sector policy and potential cost changes [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices decline, and polysilicon prices change slightly. Supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [43][45]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak, and polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate widely [44][48]. Energy and Chemicals Category Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebound, and factors such as conflicts and inventory are analyzed. Tire - factory开工率 and inventory data are provided [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral - to - bullish mindset, and consider short - term long positions on dips [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil and refined - oil prices decline, and inventory data of a port are provided [54]. - **Strategy**: Do not be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. Wait for the test of OPEC's export price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [56]. - **Strategy**: Methanol is expected to be sorted out at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices change, and basis and inventory data are provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Urea is expected to build a bottom in an oscillatory manner. Consider long positions on dips [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [58]. - **Strategy**: Consider going long on non - integrated styrene profits when the inventory inflection point appears [59]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices decline, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [60]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish mindset and go short on rallies [61]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [62][63]. - **Strategy**: Be aware of the risk of a rebound in the short - term, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak [64]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips based on expectations [66]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: PX prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [68]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [69]. - **Strategy**: Go short on the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [70]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices decline, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [71]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the change in the cost - side supply - surplus pattern in Q1 next year [72]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices change, and regional supply - demand situations are analyzed [74]. - **Strategy**: Retain the reverse - spread idea, and gradually shift the focus from shorting the near - term contract to longing the far - term contract [75]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices change, and market trading situations are provided [76]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about the high - valued contracts [77]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: CBOT soybean prices rise slightly, and domestic soybean and meal supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [78]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate [80]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: MPOB data shows the situation of Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oil prices change [81]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on dips for palm oil [82]. Sugar - **Market Information**: Sugar prices change, and production data of major sugar - producing countries are provided [83]. - **Strategy**: Be bearish on the large - scale trend, and wait and see in the short - term [84]. Cotton - **Market Information**: Cotton prices oscillate, and supply, demand, and inventory data are provided [85]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult for cotton prices to have a unilateral trend [86].

贵金属：银价进入加速上涨阶段，谨防价格剧烈波动风险 报告要点： 专题报告 2025-12-11 国际银价在新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态明确鸽派后出现强势上涨，白银市场交易 的核心逻辑仍是联储主席换届完成后联储独立性所受到的冲击以及后续可能存在的激进降息 操作，但当前白银价格已经进入加速上涨阶段，投资者需关注美联储 12 月议息会议预期落地 后所存在的价格剧烈波动风险。 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 0755-23375141 zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属研究 一、新任联储主席热门候选人哈塞特表态鸽派 11 月，美联储新任主席热门候选人哈塞特明确表示"若被提名为美联储主席，将非常乐 意进行任职"，而随后特朗普表示他知道将会选择谁成为美联储主席，且很快将会宣布这一决 定。而在十二月初，特朗普在内阁会议中再度暗示哈塞特将成为新任联储主席，特朗普表示他 将在明年年初宣布联储主席人选，但他随后在介绍哈塞特时表示，"潜在的美联储主席就在这 里"，这几乎确定了哈塞特将被提名为新任联储主席。哈塞特的联储主席任命将会使得特朗普 的意图被完整带入美联储 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's dovish interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion operation in this meeting supported the prices of gold and silver, but the precious metal prices have already fully reflected the expectation of loose monetary policy. The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and short - cycle hourly technical pattern breakouts may indicate short - term peaks for silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 940 - 989 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.12% to 954.76 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.78% to 14166.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4255.20 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver at 62.20 dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13%, and the US dollar index was 98.57 [2] 3.2 Fed Meeting Analysis - **Internal Disagreements**: The hawkish degree of the Fed officials' voting results was lower than market expectations, with only Goolsbee and Schmidt voting against the rate cut. Trump - affiliated Milan still supported a 50 - basis - point rate cut [2] - **Balance - Sheet Expansion**: After stopping QT in early December, the Fed started balance - sheet expansion, limiting the scope to short - term US Treasury bonds and interest - bearing Treasury bonds within 3 years to ease liquidity issues, with the first - month bond - purchasing scale being 40 billion dollars [2] - **Powell's Stance**: Powell's statements on inflation and employment were dovish. He believed that without new tariffs, commodity inflation would peak in the first quarter of next year, and service - sector inflation was declining. Regarding the job market, he thought the labor market slowdown continued and employment figures were overestimated. His view on the subsequent interest - rate policy path was "wait - and - see" [2][3] - **Dot Plot**: The neutral interest rate in 2026 shown in the dot plot was the same as in September, with only one 25 - basis - point rate cut priced in for next year. A more aggressive rate - cut forecast (2.00 - 2.25% next year) was likely from Director Milan. A new dot plot will be released at the March 18th meeting [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The silver price has entered an accelerated upward phase. Pay attention to the resistance level of 14500 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver. It is recommended to take profits at an appropriate time. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 13232 - 14500 yuan/kilogram [3] 3.4 Data Summary - Gold: For COMEX gold on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 4258.30 dollars/ounce (up 0.51% from the previous day), the trading volume was 180,500 lots (up 3.51%), the position was 450,400 lots (down 1.47%), and the inventory was 1123 tons (up 0.03%). For Shanghai gold, the closing price of the active contract was 956.40 yuan/gram (up 0.51%), the trading volume was 277,600 lots (down 4.89%), the position was 327,500 lots (down 0.52%), and the inventory was 91.30 tons (unchanged) [5] - Silver: For COMEX silver on December 10, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 62.20 dollars/ounce (up 1.70% from the previous day), the trading volume was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), the position was 155,300 lots (down 1.85%), and the inventory was 14,196 tons (up 0.13%). For Shanghai silver, the closing price of the active contract was 14,373.00 yuan/kilogram (up 5.63%), the trading volume was 2,849,600 lots (up 39.08%), the position was 809,800 lots (up 5.08%), and the inventory was 741.85 tons (up 3.35%) [5] 3.5 Price Difference Analysis - Gold: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was - 11.22 yuan/gram (- 49.41 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was - 5.40 yuan/gram (- 23.80 dollars/ounce) [51] - Silver: On December 10, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 355.34 yuan/kilogram (1.57 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 363.80 yuan/kilogram (1.60 dollars/ounce) [51][57]

1. Report Summary - The report provides a morning strategy briefing for metal options on December 11, 2025, covering various metal options including non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals [1][2]. 2. Core Views - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, a neutral volatility selling strategy is recommended [2]. - For black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, a short volatility combination strategy is suitable [2]. - For precious metals experiencing a rebound, a bull spread combination strategy is suggested [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various metal futures contracts. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2601) is 91,770, with a price increase of 290 and a trading volume of 14.61 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - The report calculates the volume PCR and open - interest PCR for different metal options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of option underlying assets are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For instance, the pressure level of copper is 94,000 and the support level is 84,000 [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides information on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical implied volatility difference for each metal option [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies by Metal 3.3.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a selling combination strategy of slightly bullish call and put options, and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Zinc**: Build a selling combination strategy of neutral call and put options and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Nickel**: Construct a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [11]. - **Tin**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a short volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a selling combination strategy of neutral call and put options and a spot long - hedging strategy [12]. 3.3.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull spread combination strategy for call options, a slightly bullish short volatility option selling combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [13]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Build a selling combination strategy of slightly bearish call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferro - alloys**: For manganese silicon, construct a short volatility strategy; for industrial silicon, build a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short volatility selling combination strategy of call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy; for glass, construct a bear spread combination strategy for put options, a short volatility selling combination strategy of call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15][16].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report dated December 11, 2025, covering various energy chemical options including energy, polyolefins, polyesters, alkali chemicals, and others [2][3] - The recommended strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [4] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest for multiple energy chemical futures contracts such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc [5] Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data for different option varieties are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the underlying market and potential turning points [6] Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels for each option variety are analyzed based on the strike prices with the maximum open interest of call and put options [7] Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical volatility, are provided for different option varieties [8] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations Crude Oil Options - Fundamental analysis shows that US crude oil production slightly increased, refinery throughput rose, and global floating storage increased [9] - The market has been weak recently, with implied volatility below the average and the open interest PCR indicating a bearish trend [9] - Recommended strategies include a bearish spread using put options and a short volatility strategy [9] LPG Options - The supply of LPG is under pressure in the medium to long term, while the domestic market is relatively strong in the short term [10][11] - The market is in a sideways trend, with implied volatility around the average and the open interest PCR suggesting a neutral bias [11] - A short neutral volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [11] Methanol Options - The inventory of methanol has decreased, and the market has been weak [11] - The implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a bearish trend [11] - A bearish spread using put options and a short volatility strategy are suggested [11] Ethylene Glycol Options - The inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the demand is limited, leading to a weak market [12] - The implied volatility is above the average and rising, and the open interest PCR shows strong bearish sentiment [12] - A bearish spread using put options and a short volatility strategy are recommended [12] PVC Options - The overall inventory of PVC is in a de-stocking cycle, and the market has been weak [12] - The implied volatility has decreased to below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a continuous decline [12] - A bearish spread using put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [12] Rubber Options - The production capacity utilization rate of rubber tire enterprises has increased, and the market has been in a weak consolidation [13] - The implied volatility is approaching the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market [13] - A short neutral volatility strategy is recommended [13] PTA Options - The inventory of PTA is expected to accumulate, and the market has been in a sideways trend [13] - The implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR suggests a sideways market [13] - A short neutral volatility strategy is recommended [13] Caustic Soda Options - The production capacity utilization rate of caustic soda enterprises has increased, and the market has been weak [14] - The implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a bearish trend [14] - A bearish spread using put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [14] Soda Ash Options - The production and inventory of soda ash are at relatively high levels, and the market has been in a low-level sideways trend [14] - The implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a bearish market [14] - A bearish spread using put options, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [14] Urea Options - The supply pressure of urea has been relieved recently, and the market has been in a short-term weak trend [15] - The implied volatility is below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bearish pressure [15] - A short neutral volatility strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [15] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes price charts, trading volume and open interest charts, open interest PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts for various option varieties [16][34][52]