1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is trading the policy intervention in capacity reduction, and the original oversupply logic has been restructured. The valuations of futures contracts have increased significantly, especially for the far - end contracts. For near - term contracts, although the theoretical supply in the fourth quarter will increase, the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the early fourth quarter has decreased, and the month - spread may move towards a positive spread structure. For far - month contracts, the long - term policy regulation of sow capacity cannot be falsified for the time being, and the month - spread tends to be in a reverse spread. Due to the ongoing industrial restructuring, the uncertainty of single - side trading has increased, and more attention should be paid to month - spread opportunities [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Last week, pig prices rebounded after a decline. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand highlights, pig prices initially fell. However, towards the end of the month, the slowdown in the slaughter rhythm and increased downstream procurement difficulty led to a price rebound. The weekly average price in Henan increased by 0.1 yuan to 14.3 yuan/kg, in Sichuan by 0.06 yuan to 13.66 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong by 0.18 yuan to 15.76 yuan/kg. At the beginning of the month, limited supply and upstream reluctance to sell may support prices, but as the supply recovers and market stocking weakens, pig prices may remain weak in the first half of the month [11]. - **Supply Side**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year. From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [11]. - **Demand Side**: The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: There is no recommendation for single - side trading currently; instead, focus on the support level of the November contract. For arbitrage, consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread or an 11 - 01 positive spread in August, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1, a recommended cycle of 2 months, and a core driving logic related to policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Movement**: Pig prices rebounded after a decline last week. With continuous weight reduction by enterprises and limited demand, prices initially fell but rebounded towards the end of the month. The slaughter volume remained high, the average trading weight continued to decline, and the weight of individual farmers increased. The fat - standard price difference remained high. Although the spot price is weak, there is an expectation of a price increase in August [22][25]. - **Basis and Spread Movement**: The spot price is weak, but there is an expectation of a price increase in August [25]. - **Prices of Piglets and Sows**: Relevant price charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [27][28]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows and Changes**: In June, the official sow inventory was 40.43 million, slightly up month - on - month and 3.7% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. However, the strong expectation of policy - forced capacity reduction may improve the supply situation next year [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure. Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased [42][49]. - **Theoretical Slaughter Volume**: The theoretical supply in July and August is relatively stable, but there will be a significant increase from September to the end of the year. Currently, some supply is advanced, which may partially offset the future pressure [42]. - **Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Slaughter**: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is low, indicating low epidemic pressure; the proportion of large pigs has slightly increased, indicating that the proportion of large pigs is gradually increasing as the weight increases [45]. - **Trading and Average Weight after Slaughter**: Recently, slaughter volume has increased slightly month - on - month, and the average weight has decreased, indicating that the market is actively increasing supply [49]. - **Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [51]. - **Secondary Fattening and Barn Utilization**: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text [53]. 3.4. Demand Side The overall consumption environment is weak, and changes in consumption habits are unfavorable to pork consumption. Although pork consumption has been decreasing year - on - year, the impact of festival consumption on pig prices should be noted on a month - on - month basis [58]. 3.5. Cost and Profit Costs have slightly rebounded after reaching the bottom and are generally lower year - on - year. Due to the lagged effect of low costs, although pig prices are weak, the breeding profit is the highest in recent years [69]. 3.6. Inventory Side Frozen pork inventory is moderately low but is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, driven by the overall price - rising atmosphere, steel mills and agents had smooth sales, and the inventory digestion speed accelerated. Currently, the inventory of Qing - series agents has significantly decreased. With steel mills' recent suspension of distribution for the 300 - series, agent spot resources are becoming scarce, especially in hot - rolled specifications. Traders have relatively sufficient inventory due to previous active restocking. Since July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy, the restocking enthusiasm in the trading sector has been high, but limited by the actual terminal demand, the social inventory remains at a high level. The nickel - iron market is dull, with steel mills and traders mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude, while high - nickel - iron producers have a strong willingness to hold prices. It is expected that with the production increase of steel mills in August, the demand for high - nickel iron will increase month - on - month, and the oversupply situation of nickel iron is expected to improve. Overall, the stainless - steel price may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the 13130 pressure level on the price [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On August 2nd, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [11]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11]. - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [11]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [11]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Periodic and Spot Market - On August 1st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 190 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 140 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract. The disk position was 203,902 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 45 (- 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 100 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply End - In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, in June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [30]. - It is estimated that in June, the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand End - From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [43]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week [50]. - This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [53]. 3.6. Cost End - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [57]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/dry ton compared with last week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base ton compared with last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, and the profit rate reaches - 6.02%. With the warming of downstream consumption sentiment, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].

01 周度评估 张世骄（联系人） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 情绪退潮， 回归产业弱现实 锌周报 从业资格号：F03120988 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 2025/08/02 CONTENTS 目录 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 04 需求分析 01 周度评估 周度评估 ◆ 价格回顾：周五沪锌指数收跌0.15%至22320元/吨，单边交易总持仓21.46万手。截至周五下午15：00，伦锌3S较前日同期跌19.5 至2749美元/吨，总持仓18.99万手。SMM0#锌锭均价22300元/吨，上海基差平水，天津基差-30元/吨，广东基差-55元/吨，沪粤 价差55元/吨。 ◆ 国内结构：据上海有色数据，国内社会库存略有去库至10.32万吨。上期所锌锭期货库存录得1.5万吨，内盘上海地区基差平水， 连续合约-连一合约价差-30元/吨。海外结构：LME锌锭库存录得10.48万吨，LME锌锭注销仓单录得4.77万吨。外盘cash-3S合约 基差-6.56美元/吨，3-15价差-13.26美元/吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The risk level of the previous continuous rally in the commodity market has increased, and fear of high prices has spread. This week, varieties such as coking coal, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, glass, and soda ash have all significantly corrected. The improvement of the lithium carbonate fundamentals depends on the substantial reduction in the mining end. Australian mines have successively announced quarterly reports, and Greenbush and Pilbara will increase production in the new fiscal year. The subsequent market attention will still focus on the reduction and suspension of production of domestic resources in Jiangxi and Qinghai. This week, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly. There is an expectation of repair in the supply - demand relationship before the peak season, which is expected to support the bottom of lithium prices, but the sustainability of supply reduction remains to be observed. Recently, the uncertainty brought by capital games is high, and there is a certain linkage effect among active varieties. Pay attention to the overall atmosphere change in the commodity market in the future. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize the entry point in a timely manner according to their own operations [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [12] - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [12] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [12] - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [12] - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - On August 1st, the morning quote of the Wuganglian Lithium Carbonate Spot Index (MMLC) was 68,832 yuan, a weekly decline of 10.41%. Among them, the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,000 yuan. On the same day, the closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 68,920 yuan, a decline of 14.4% within the week [20] - The average discount of the exchange - standard electric carbon trading market is about - 100 yuan. The net short position of lithium carbonate contract positions has declined [23] - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan. The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 5,680 yuan [26] 3. Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output by SMM was 17,268 tons, a 7.3% decrease compared to last week. Some manufacturers have carried out maintenance or production cuts, and the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake lithium carbonate have dropped rapidly, resulting in a decline in domestic lithium carbonate output. In July 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 81,530 tons, a 4.4% increase compared to the previous month, a 25.5% increase year - on - year, and a cumulative 40.6% increase in the first seven months year - on - year [31] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 44,810 tons, a 13.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 47.9% increase year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 73.8% year - on - year. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from lithium mica was 18,000 tons, a 7.6% decrease compared to the previous month, and the cumulative output in the first seven months increased by 21.0% year - on - year [34] - In July, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased by 7.6% to 12,340 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 15.6% year - on - year. Some salt lakes have reduced or suspended production, and the output of salt lake lithium carbonate has declined during the peak season. In July, the output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end increased by 9.8% month - on - month to 6,380 tons, and the cumulative output from January to July increased by 17.4% year - on - year [37] - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% decrease compared to the previous month and a 9.6% decrease year - on - year. Among them, 11,853 tons were imported from Chile and 5,094 tons from Argentina. From January to June, the total import volume of lithium carbonate in China was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% increase year - on - year. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure was relatively small in July. In the first half of the year, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China decreased by 17% year - on - year, while the exports of lithium sulfate increased by 172%. The export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate in the first half of the year was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40] 4. Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand. In 2024, it accounted for 87% of global consumption. Future growth in lithium salt consumption will rely on the growth of the lithium - battery industry, while traditional application areas have limited growth [44] - The Passenger Car Association expects that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July can reach about 1.01 million, and the penetration rate is expected to increase to 54.6%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles globally increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47] - From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 1.191 million, a 24.8% increase compared to last year. From January to June, the total sales of new energy vehicles in the United States were 761,000, a 6.4% increase compared to last year [50] - In June, the combined output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase compared to the previous month and a 51.4% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of power and other batteries in China was 697.3 GWh, a cumulative 60.4% increase year - on - year. In June, the installed capacity of power batteries in China was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% increase compared to the previous month and a 35.9% increase year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity of power batteries in China was 299.6 GWh, a cumulative 47.3% increase year - on - year [53] - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, and the output in the first half of the year increased by 47.8% year - on - year. It is expected that the output of cathode materials will increase slightly in July compared to the previous month, and according to Xinluo Consulting's research, the output of cathode materials in August will increase by 2.6% month - on - month [56] 5. Inventory - On July 31st, the domestic weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was reported at 141,726 tons, a decrease of 1,444 tons (-1.0%) compared to last week. The downward supply has reversed the inventory growth trend. On August 1st, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 6,605 tons [63] - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to the rush for exports [66] 6. Cost Side - The ore price has adjusted following the lithium salt price. On August 1st, the quoted price of SMM Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate was 720 - 770 US dollars per ton, a 13.4% decrease compared to the previous week [74] - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, a 18.1% decrease year - on - year and a 17.2% decrease compared to the previous month. From January to June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 2.806 million tons, a cumulative 0.2% decrease year - on - year. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while the import from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year. With the rebound of lithium prices, the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased in July [77]

"反内卷"预期走弱带动情绪退坡， 投机头寸建议观望，抓住套保机会 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 锰硅周报 2025/08/02 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 利润及成本 06 图形走势 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 ◆ 天津6517锰硅现货市场报价5900元/吨，环比上周-110元/吨；期货主力（SM509）收盘报5962元/吨，环比上周-452元/吨；基差128元/吨， 环比上周+342元/吨，基差率2.12%，处于历史统计值中性水平。 ◆ 利润：锰硅测算即期利润（不含折旧等费用）维持低位，内蒙-338元/吨，环比上周-74元/吨；宁夏-317元/吨，环比上周-194元/吨；广西- 531元/吨，环比上周-57元/吨。（利润为测算值，仅供参考） ◆ 成本：测算内蒙锰硅即期成本（不含折旧等费用)在6058元/吨，环比上周+94元/吨；宁夏在6017元/吨，环比上周+94元/吨；广西在6331元/ 吨，环比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The fundamentals show that the comprehensive profit of enterprises has risen to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure. The number of maintenance projects is gradually decreasing, and the production volume is at a five - year high. In the short term, multiple sets of devices are being put into operation. On the downstream side, the domestic start - up level is at a five - year low. Regarding exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended, and there may be a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, weakening cost support. In the medium term, the industry is continuously suppressed by the substantial increase in production capacity and the continuous decline in real estate demand. The industry pattern has deteriorated and needs to rely on export growth or the implementation of policies to clear old devices to consume the domestic excess production capacity. Overall, under the reality of strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation, the fundamentals are poor. It is necessary to observe whether subsequent exports can exceed expectations and reverse the domestic inventory accumulation pattern. In the short term, there has been a significant decline after the anti - involution sentiment subsided. If there is no policy to clear devices in the medium term, the supply - demand pattern will still be weak, and the industry still faces the pressure of reducing valuation to clear production capacity [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 2,780 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 605 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. In terms of profit, the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali integration has risen to a new high this year, and the profit of ethylene production has continued to rebound. Currently, the valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 76.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05%; among them, the calcium carbide method is 76%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%; the ethylene method is 79%, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The supply - side load increased slightly last week, mainly due to the resumption of maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, Yidongdongxing, and Fujian Wanhua. It is expected that the load will further recover next week. The maintenance volume in August will decrease, and with the commissioning of new devices, the supply pressure will increase [11]. - **Demand**: In terms of exports, India's anti - dumping policy has been extended to the end of September, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The start - up of the three major downstream industries rebounded last week. The load of pipes was 33%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the load of films was 77%, unchanged from the previous week; the load of profiles was 37%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream load was 42.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The overall downstream start - up has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Last week, the PVC pre - sales volume was 854,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 58,000 tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 722,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,000 tons; the overall inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons; the number of warehouse receipts increased. In the subsequent domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand, supply and demand will turn to inventory accumulation. It is necessary to observe whether there are any surprises in exports [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market No specific text - based summary content provided, only multiple charts about PVC term structure, prices, basis, spreads, positions, and trading volumes from 2021 to 2025 are presented [16][18][20]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The profit of chlor - alkali integration has recovered to a new high this year, with significant valuation pressure [40]. - **Inventory**: Multiple charts show the inventory data of PVC in - factory, ethylene - based in - factory, calcium carbide - based in - factory, social inventory, total inventory, and warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [34][37][39]. 4. Cost Side - **Calcium Carbide**: The price of calcium carbide has decreased, and the inventory has slightly accumulated. The price and inventory trends of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the calcium carbide start - up rate [47][48]. - **Other Raw Materials**: The price of semi - coke has rebounded, while the prices of ethylene and caustic soda have remained stable. The price trends of semi - coke, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [50][52][55]. 5. Supply Side - **Capacity Expansion**: The capacity expansion of PVC in 2025 is significant, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 2.5 million tons/year of new capacity is expected to be put into operation, including projects such as Xinpu Chemical, Jintai Chemical, and Wanhua Chemical (Phase II). The raw material consumption for the new capacity is also presented [58][63]. - **Production**: The PVC start - up rate has remained stable, and the overall production volume is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the weekly production volume [66][69][72]. 6. Demand Side - **Downstream Start - up**: The start - up of the three major downstream industries of PVC has rebounded. The start - up rates of PVC pipes, films, and profiles from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts [75]. - **Exports**: The anti - dumping policy of India has been extended, alleviating the pressure of weak exports in the third quarter. There is an expectation of a rush to export at the end of the rainy season. The export volume of PVC and the export volume to India from 2021 to 2025 are presented in the charts, along with the pre - sales volume [11][83][86]. - **Real Estate Impact**: The chart shows the rolling cumulative year - on - year change in China's housing completion area, reflecting the impact of the real estate market on PVC demand [90].

回归现实基本面， 期价大幅回落 氧化铝周报 2025/08/02 王梓铧（联系人） 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130785 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 目录 01 周度评估 06 库存 04 需求端 02 期现价格 05 供需平衡 03 供给端 周度评估 周度要点小结 | 氧化铝基本面评 估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 进口盈亏 | 冶炼利润 | 矿端 | 供给端 | 需求端 | 库存 | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | 铝土矿6月产量： | | 电解铝6月运 | SHFE：0.66万 | | 数据 | 53 | -105 | 354 | 519万吨 | 周产量： | 行产能： | 吨 | | | | | | 铝土矿6月进口量： | 184.7万吨 | 4403万吨 | 社库：408.2万 | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Trump administration's exemption of refined copper tariffs eases the trading of potential import tariffs on platinum group metals in the US, leading to a short - term downward pressure on platinum and palladium prices. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see strategy [3][9] - NYMEX platinum and palladium prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with NYMEX platinum's price potentially testing the support level of $1,148.9 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's price likely to trade in the range of $1,193 - $1,373 per ounce [12][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: NYMEX platinum's closing price of the active contract dropped 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and NYMEX palladium's dropped 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce. The New York platinum futures premium also declined from a high of $57.1 per ounce on July 17 to $14.9 per ounce on August 1 [3][9] - **Volume and Open Interest**: NYMEX platinum's five - day average trading volume rose 44.23%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 10.46%. NYMEX palladium's five - day average trading volume rose 32.66%, and its open interest of the main contract fell 12.19% [9] - **Inventory and ETF Holdings**: CME platinum inventory increased from 11.4 tons on July 18 to 16.8 tons on August 1, and CME palladium inventory increased from 1.49 tons to 2.4 tons. Platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.26% to 75.2 tons, and palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.00% to 13.22 tons [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: NYMEX platinum's main contract price fell 7.17% to $1,330.8 per ounce, and its total open interest fell 2,523 lots to 88,000 lots. Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum price fell 8.05% to 309.9 yuan per gram [18][21] - **Palladium Price**: NYMEX palladium's main contract price fell 2.58% to $1,227.5 per ounce, and its total open interest decreased slightly by 402 lots to 20,400 lots [24] - **CFTC Net Positions**: As of July 29, NYMEX platinum's managed - fund net long positions decreased by 501 lots to 16,700 lots, and NYMEX palladium's managed - fund net short positions were 2,039 lots [36][39] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: CME platinum inventory increased 1.6 tons to 16.8 tons this week, and platinum ETF total holdings decreased to 75.2 tons [50][57] - **Palladium**: CME palladium inventory increased by 382.4 kilograms to 2,403 kilograms, and palladium ETF total holdings were 13.22 tons [53][62] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The total platinum output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024. The total palladium output of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024 [68][71] - **Demand**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May, while palladium imports were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX platinum's 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented [92][93] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Data on NYMEX palladium's 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented [99][101] - **London Market Spot - NYMEX Spread**: Data on the spreads between London market spot platinum price and NYMEX platinum price, and London market spot palladium price and NYMEX palladium price are presented [106][107]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The visible inventory of lead ore continues to decline, and the raw materials at the primary end are relatively tight, leading to a marginal tightening of the supply of primary lead ingots. At the secondary end, the raw materials remain in short supply, but the smelting start - up rate of secondary lead has increased marginally. The downstream start - up rate remains relatively high, and the domestic inventory is rising slowly. Overall, the supply of lead ingots remains loose, and it is expected that lead prices will mainly fluctuate weakly [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.07% at 16,736 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,800 lots. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Lead 3S fell 10.5 to 1,966.5 dollars/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total position of 146,300 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,550 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,600 yuan/ton, the refined - scrap spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,200 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industrial Data**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.90%, and the factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons, the weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86% [11]. 2. Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In June 2025, the net import of lead concentrate was 118,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 31.7% and a month - on - month change of 13.6%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead concentrate was 669,400 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 37.6%. In June 2025, the net import of silver concentrate was 126,000 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.2% and a month - on - month change of - 7.5%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of silver concentrate was 847,500 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.6%. In June 2025, China's lead concentrate output was 153,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 14.9% and a month - on - month change of 2.5%. From January to June, the total production of lead concentrate was 787,000 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.1%. In June 2025, the net import of lead - containing ore was 121,200 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.7% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ore was 740,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.0% [15][17]. - **Total Supply**: In June 2025, the total supply of lead concentrate in China was 274,300 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 15.3% and a month - on - month change of 3.1%. From January to June, the cumulative supply of lead concentrate was 1,527,700 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.9%. In May 2025, the global lead ore output was 382,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 0.1% and a month - on - month change of 1.5%. From January to May, the total production of lead ore was 1,863,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.5% [19]. - **Inventory and Processing Fees**: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 30,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 404,000 tons, equivalent to 25.8 days. The import TC of lead concentrate was - 60 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 500 yuan/metal ton [21][23]. - **Smelting Start - up Rate and Output**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 63.9%. The factory inventory of primary ingots was 6,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead output was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2,206,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51% [26]. 3. Secondary Supply - **Inventory and Production**: At the secondary end, the inventory of lead waste was 84,000 tons. The weekly output of secondary lead ingots was 36,000 tons, and the factory inventory of secondary ingots was 13,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead output was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2,251,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37% [31][33]. - **Net Exports and Total Supply**: In June 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 7,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 43.5% and a month - on - month change of - 22.1%. From January to June, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 43,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 448.2%. In June 2025, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 622,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of 0.3%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 3,862,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 5.3% [35]. 4. Demand Analysis - **Battery Start - up Rate and Apparent Demand**: At the demand end, the start - up rate of lead - acid batteries was 71.86%. In June 2025, the domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 624,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.0% and a month - on - month change of 4.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for lead ingots was 3,826,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 3.5% [38]. - **Battery Exports**: In June 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 1,825,850 units, and the net export weight was 99,200 tons. It was estimated that the net export of lead in batteries was 62,000 tons, a year - on - year change of - 16.9% and a month - on - month change of - 5.0%. From January to June, the total net export of lead in batteries was 366,300 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries changed by - 3.1% year - on - year [41]. - **Downstream Inventory**: In June 2025, the days of enterprise finished - product inventory slightly decreased to 26 days, and the days of dealer inventory slightly increased to 39.88 days [44]. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly dragged down the new installation demand, the continuous growth of delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeaway drove the improvement of the new installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium iron phosphate starter batteries, the high stock of existing vehicles still provides support for lead ingot consumption. In the base station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 5. Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Supply - Demand Difference**: In June 2025, the domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was a shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic supply - demand difference of lead ingots was an excess of 0 tons [61]. - **Overseas Supply - Demand Difference**: In May 2025, the overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 21,400 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas supply - demand difference of refined lead was a shortage of - 35,700 tons [64]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased to 69,800 tons. The futures inventory of lead ingots on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 59,900 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton [69]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 276,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 72,400 tons. The basis of the overseas cash - 3S contract was - 40.86 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 63.5 dollars/ton [72]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.181, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 528.2 yuan/ton [75]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead turned to net short, the net long position of investment funds in London lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position perspective indicates a bearish trend [78].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 2025/08/02 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The internal and external basis fluctuates strongly, the refined scrap price difference narrows, and the global visible inventory increases, with the copper valuation being slightly on the long side. In terms of drivers, the increase in copper concentrate processing fees has a neutral impact on the copper price, the surge in the US dollar index is bearish, and the improvement in the global manufacturing PMI is bullish [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee of copper concentrate has increased slightly, and the processing fee of blister copper has risen month - on - month. The supply of cold materials has marginally eased. In June, Chile's copper production decreased significantly month - on - month and turned from an increase to a decrease year - on - year. The EI Teniente copper mine accident may exacerbate the tight supply situation [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 21,000 tons week - on - week. The inventory of SHFE decreased by 1,000 tons to 73,000 tons, LME increased by 13,000 tons to 142,000 tons, and COMEX increased by 8,000 tons to 234,000 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area increased by 4,000 tons [11]. - **Imports and Exports**: The spot import of domestic electrolytic copper maintained a small loss, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, and the net imports were 258,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 71.1% [11]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic downstream refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and the spot supply was relatively tight. The refined scrap price difference in the domestic market narrowed slightly, the supply of recycled raw materials remained tight, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises rebounded slightly [11]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The copper price fluctuated weakly. The main contract of SHFE copper fell 1.07% week - on - week, and LME copper fell 0.66% to $9,633/ton [23]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of copper showed a downward trend. The price difference between different regions and varieties also changed [25]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper price fluctuated weakly, and the basis quotation rebounded. The LME inventory continued to increase, and the Cash/3M maintained a discount [28]. - **Structure**: The near - month structure of SHFE copper futures flattened; the near - month Contango of LME copper shrank, and the far - month Contango structure expanded [31]. 3. Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrate increased slightly, and the sulfuric acid price in East China remained flat, which still had a positive impact on copper smelting revenue [36]. - **Import and Export Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Import and Export Profit and Loss**: The spot import of copper had a small loss [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased, and the inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area also increased. The inventory reduction of SHFE came from Jiangsu and Shanghai, and the LME inventory increase came from Asian warehouses [44][47][50]. 4. Supply Side - **Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output**: In July 2025, China's refined copper output increased by nearly 40,000 tons month - on - month, reaching a new high, and it is expected to decline slightly in August [55]. - **Import and Export Situation**: In June 2025, China's copper ore imports decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products increased month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of refined copper increased year - on - year, and the export increased month - on - month [58][61][64]. 5. Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: China's manufacturing PMI declined in June, and the manufacturing prosperity of overseas major economies was divided [80]. - **Downstream Industry Output Data**: In June, the output of some downstream industries such as power generation equipment increased year - on - year, while the output of color TVs decreased [83]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to June, domestic real estate data continued to be weak, and the national real estate prosperity index continued to decline in June [86]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate**: The operating rates of most downstream copper enterprises showed a downward trend in June, and some are expected to continue to decline in July [89][92][95]. - **Refined Scrap Price Difference**: The domestic refined scrap price difference narrowed slightly [100]. 6. Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Position**: The total position of SHFE copper decreased by 55,866 to 965,272 lots (bilateral) [105]. - **Foreign Fund Position**: As of July 22, the CFTC fund position remained net long, but the net long ratio declined. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds rebounded as of July 25 [108].