大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 第一部分 数据分析 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8376 | 54 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8586 | | | | 8696 | 8526 | | 320 | 0 | 210 | 0 | 150 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9422 | 126 | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9382 | | | | 9422 | 9532 | | -40 | 0 | 0 | ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily research on corn and corn starch, released on September 15, 2025, by the Commodity Research Institute [2] Group 2: Data Futures Market - For corn futures, C2601 closed at 2156 with a decrease of 11 (-0.51%), C2605 at 2229 (-8, -0.36%), C2509 at 2255 (-1, -0.04%); for corn starch futures, CS2601 closed at 2473 (-14, -0.57%), CS2605 at 2571 (-10, -0.39%), CS2509 at 2588 (101, 3.90%) [3] - The trading volume and open interest of most contracts showed significant changes, such as C2601's trading volume increasing by 73.58% and open interest by 1.05% [3] Spot Market and Basis - Corn spot prices varied by region, with today's quotes in Qinggang at 2230 (up 10), Jiamuji Biochemical at 2180 (unchanged), etc; starch spot prices also differed, like Longfeng at 2700 (unchanged), Zhongliang at 2750 (unchanged) [3] - The basis of corn and starch also showed different values in different regions and contracts [3] Spread - Corn inter - delivery spreads like C01 - C05 was -73 (-3), starch inter - delivery spreads like CS01 - CS05 was -98 (-4), and cross - variety spreads like CS09 - C09 was 333 (102) [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Corn - The US corn report lowered the yield per unit, and there is still room for the US corn to rebound; China has imposed tariffs on US corn and sorghum, but the import profit of foreign corn is high, with the December Brazilian import price at 2164 yuan [5] - Northern port flat - price is stable, Northeast corn spot is strong, while North China's corn spot is weak due to increased supply, and the price difference between Northeast and North China corn has decreased; wheat in North China can still substitute for corn [5][7] - Domestic breeding demand is weak, downstream feed enterprises have high inventory, and corn spot is stable in the short term; with new - season corn about to be listed in large quantities, the corn spot price is expected to fall [7] Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has increased, Shandong corn spot is stable, and starch in Shandong is around 2750 yuan, while Northeast starch spot is weak [8] - This week, corn starch inventory decreased to 122.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.9 million tons from last week (monthly decrease of 6.98%, year - on - year increase of 40.3%); starch price depends on corn price and downstream stocking [8] - In the long - term, due to weak demand, starch enterprises will be in a long - term loss state; 01 starch is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [8] Group 4: Trading Strategies Unilateral - US corn has support at 400 cents per bushel; it is advisable to wait and see for 01 corn [10] Arbitrage - It is recommended to wait and see [11] Group 5: Corn Option Strategies - Enterprises with physical goods can close out short positions of corn call options, or short - term traders can try to sell at high prices and conduct rolling operations [14] Group 6: Related Graphs - The report includes graphs of various data such as corn spot prices in different regions, corn 01 contract basis, corn 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 1 - 5 spreads, corn starch 01 contract basis, and corn starch 01 contract spreads [16][17][21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][6][24] - Report Date: September 15, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [5] Group 2: Market Information 1. Threaded Steel - **Futures Prices**: RB05 was 3205 yuan/ton (+16), RB10 was 3045 yuan/ton (+10), RB01 was 3136 yuan/ton (+9) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian was 3210 yuan/ton (+20), Nanjing Xicheng was 3330 yuan/ton (+10), Shandong Shiheng was 3260 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract threaded steel disk profit was - 88 yuan/ton (-9), 10 - contract was - 234 yuan/ton (-45), 01 - contract was - 129 yuan/ton (-14) [3] 2. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures Prices**: HC05 was 3374 yuan/ton (+6), HC10 was 3398 yuan/ton (+3), HC01 was 3370 yuan/ton (+6) [3] - **Spot Prices**: Tianjin Hegang was 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), Lecong Rigang was 3380 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanghai Angang was 3410 yuan/ton (+10) [3] - **Profit and Other Data**: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit was 81 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract was 119 yuan/ton (-52), 01 - contract was 105 yuan/ton (-17) [3] Group 3: Market Judgement 1. Related Prices - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel was 3210 yuan (+20), Beijing Jingye was 3180 yuan (unchanged), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3200 yuan (unchanged) [8] 2. Trading Strategies - The black sector rebounded as a whole today. Steel spot trading was average, with good trading at low prices. Last week, steel production data showed that threaded steel production decline increased, while hot - rolled coil production increased. Currently, long and short - process of threaded steel is in serious losses and is expected to continue to cut production, while hot - rolled coil remains profitable and is expected to continue to resume production. Inventory continued to accumulate, with threaded steel inventory accumulating faster than last year, high threaded steel warehouse receipt pressure, and declining apparent demand. The hot - rolled coil inventory has reached an inflection point and is turning to destocking, with demand improving significantly. It is expected that pig iron production will recover rapidly this week. Building materials demand is still in the off - season, and there is a differentiation between varieties. In August, coal daily consumption is expected to decline, and coking coal supply is high. If coal mine production cuts do not occur, steel prices still face pressure, but considering pre - National Day restocking, the decline of coking coal is limited. Recently, the market fluctuated due to sudden news of iron ore and coal mines. The valuation of threaded steel is low, so it is expected that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand of steel, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [9] - **Specific Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; it is recommended to intervene in the 1 - 5 positive spread; it is recommended to wait and see for options [10] 3. Important Information - In August 2025, China's crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. From January to August, China's crude steel production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%; pig iron production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; steel production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [10] - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 32.6111 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; excluding real estate development investment, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.2%. In terms of different fields, infrastructure investment increased by 2.0% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. The national newly - built commercial housing sales area was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the newly - built commercial housing sales volume was 5.5015 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3% [12] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to threaded steel and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, and cost, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [16][20][22]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report Type: Black Metal R & D Report [1][6][11][18] - Date: September 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Steel Core View - The black - metal sector maintained a volatile trend last Friday night. There are differences between varieties, with building materials in the off - season. Steel prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in September, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [3]. Related Information - The eight - department plan aims for about 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, a 3% year - on - year increase, with about 15.5 million new - energy vehicle sales, a 20% year - on - year increase [3]. - Last week, the scale of construction steel mill overhauls decreased significantly, and the scale of resumption of production increased. The production reduction due to line overhauls is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [3]. - Spot prices: Shanghai rebar is 3,220 yuan, Beijing is 3,160 yuan (-10), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3,380 yuan, and Tianjin is 3,310 yuan (-10) [3][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [4]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) Core View - Recently, coal mines and steel mills have gradually resumed normal production, and the supply and demand of coking coal have increased. The double - coking futures are expected to show a wide - range oscillating trend, with a bottom support and an upper limit. It is safer to go long at low prices, but do not expect too much increase [10]. Related Information - Last week, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 82.7%, a 6.9% month - on - month increase. The daily output of raw coal was 1.856 million tons, a 156,000 - ton increase [8]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83%, a 3.43 - percentage - point increase [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected to show a wide - range oscillating trend. It is safer to go long at low prices, but do not expect too much increase [12]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to enter the positive spread of coking coal 1 - 5 at low prices [12]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. - Spot - futures: Wait and see [12] Group 4: Iron Ore Core View - Last week, iron ore prices trended strongly. The terminal demand shows a pattern of weakening in China and high growth overseas. The iron ore price may face pressure at high levels [13]. Related Information - The Chinese government has taken measures to promote private investment, and China and the US have held economic and trade talks. The social financing scale and M2 have increased [13]. - The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port is 780 yuan (+3), and the basis of the 01 iron ore main contract is 54 [13]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: No specific clear strategy is mentioned in a unified way [12]. - Arbitrage: Not mentioned [12]. - Options: Not mentioned [12]. Group 5: Ferroalloys Core View - The supply side shows differentiation, and the demand side maintains a high level, but there is a risk of production reduction impacting raw material demand. The cost side supports ferromanganese - silicon. The market may be mainly bottom - oscillating this week [16]. Related Information - HeSteel has set the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon in September at 5,800 yuan/ton, a 230 - yuan/ton decrease from August [16]. - NMT has announced the shipping price of manganese ore to China in October 2025, which is flat compared with last month [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly engage in spot high - level hedging [17]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [17]. - Options: Wait and see [17]

橡胶板块2025年09月第2周报 潘盛杰 大宗商品研究所 化工研究团队负责人 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 供应宽松消费尚可，关注汽车新政落地 ◼ 政策面： ◼ 从混合现货观察天然橡胶驱动： 地气候条件正常； ➢ 消费企稳：从最新的轮胎产销数据看，全钢轮胎增产去库，半钢轮胎减产 去库，平衡均趋紧； ◼ 合成橡胶供应宽松： GALAXYFUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 观察"反内卷"政策-以BR-SP价差 221/221/221 208/218/234 ➢ 9月12日周五，住建部部长倪虹呼吁国资央企推动房地产发展新模式，河 南出台支持住房消费政策和前期深圳发布的房地产调控优化政策也被广泛 报道。房地产板块股票因此表现活跃，市场对房地产政策放松的预期强烈。 一度使周五盘中的胶价随黑色商品走强。 ➢ 9月13日周六，工业和信息化部等八部门发布《汽车行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026年）》，提出2025年汽车销量目 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of pulp is weak. Although there are positive factors from the real - estate policy on pulp prices, the current pulp fundamentals remain pessimistic, which may prevent macro - drivers from effectively affecting pulp prices [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market Changes - The downstream paper industry's cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement efforts resist pulp price increases. The average market prices of imported hardwood pulp and natural pulp have declined, while the average market price of imported chemi - mechanical pulp remains stable [4]. - Real - estate policies have increased market expectations of policy relaxation, and the real - estate stock market is active. Since the domestic real - estate market has a leading relationship with pulp prices and real - estate sales area has been growing steadily for 7 months, this is a significant positive for SP single - side [4][5]. - In August, the import value of domestic pulp decreased for two consecutive months to $1.545 billion, and in July, the import value of US pulp increased to $378 million, with a combined (staggered - month) total of $1.923 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 18.5%, the lowest decline since February 2024. As of July, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil decreased for three consecutive months, which is negative for SP single - side [18]. - Since September, the inventory of SHFE SP has decreased for six consecutive months, while the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port has increased for three consecutive months, and that in Changshu Port has decreased for two consecutive months. The total inventory has a year - on - year decrease of 0.2% but a marginal increase, which is negative for SP single - side [20]. - As of July, Canada's trade deficit increased marginally, which is slightly positive for SP single - side. As of August, the domestic total import and export volume increased year - on - year, but the growth rate narrowed for two consecutive months, which is slightly negative for SP single - side [29]. - The stock market indices such as the Small and Medium 100 Index, CSI 1000 Index, and Galaxy CSI Index have risen, and the ChinaBond New Composite Index has declined for two consecutive months, which is positive for SP single - side [34]. - As of August, the import of hardwood chips increased, while the import of hardwood pulp decreased. The import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased. The consumption of hardwood pulp and softwood pulp increased, with the consumption ratio showing a slight negative impact on the spread between hardwood and softwood pulp [43]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's production of machine - made paper and paperboard decreased, and the overall production growth rate slowed down, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [49]. - As of July, the domestic paper - making industry's finished - product inventory increased marginally, which is positive for SP single - side, while the monthly average profit - loss difference decreased marginally, which is negative for SP single - side [56]. - The European softwood pulp inventory and consumption increased, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased, which is negative for SP single - side. The domestic import of softwood chips and softwood pulp decreased, but the total long - fiber import increased marginally, which is significantly negative for SP single - side [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices maintained a weak and volatile trend. The profit of power - off - peak electricity for short - process steel decreased and fell into losses, leading to a reduction in production. The profit of long - process steel also fell into losses, but after the parade, the hot metal production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The overall supply remained high. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered rapidly, while the demand for rebar declined due to large warehouse receipt pressure. The overall inventory continued to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year. It is expected that the short - term steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. The trading strategy suggests maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [4][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook 3.1.1 Market Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 2.1868 million tons (- 0.0188 million tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1424 million tons (- 0.105 million tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 35.2% (- 0.3%). The cost of flat - rate electricity for electric furnaces in East China was about 3,373 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price), with a profit of - 166.92 yuan/ton. The cost of off - peak electricity was about 3,208 yuan/ton (converted to theoretical weight), and the profit of off - peak electricity for the third - tier rebar in East China was - 2 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 2.0207 million tons (- 0.04 million tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.0536 million tons (+ 0.208 million tons). From January to July, the growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment decreased month - on - month, and the incremental investment in domestic projects was insufficient. In July, the decline in housing sales, land acquisition, new construction, and completion areas widened, and the overall demand for housing construction was weak. The manufacturing PMI contracted, and the new orders, production, and export data all declined. The production and export of Chinese automobiles in July increased year - on - year, but the industry profit continued to shrink. The production schedule of three major white goods in September decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to decline further in October. The initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in August reached a 39 - month high, and the initial value of the eurozone manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range for the first time in three years [4]. - **Inventory**: The rebar inventory in steel mills decreased by 47,100 tons, and the social inventory increased by 185,700 tons, with a total increase of 138,600 tons. The hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills increased by 9,000 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 19,200 tons, with a total decrease of 10,200 tons. The total inventory of five major steel products in steel mills decreased by 35,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 174,100 tons, with a total increase of 139,100 tons [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - It is expected that the rebar production will continue to decrease due to serious losses in both short - and long - process production, while the hot - rolled coil production will continue to resume as it remains profitable. The overall inventory will continue to accumulate, with the rebar inventory accumulating faster than last year, and the hot - rolled coil inventory starting to decline. The steel prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. In September, attention should be paid to the peak - season demand, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies. The trading strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,220 yuan (- 20 yuan), and in Beijing was 3,160 yuan (- 30 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai was 3,380 yuan (unchanged), and that of HBIS hot - rolled coils in Tianjin was 3,310 yuan (unchanged) [11]. - **Profits**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric furnaces in East China was - 166 yuan (- 39 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 2 yuan (- 39 yuan) [29]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data - **US Data**: The unadjusted CPI annual rate in the US in August reached 2.9%, the highest since January, in line with market expectations. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.4%, higher than the expected 0.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of September 6 was 263,000, higher than the expected 235,000 [31]. - **Chinese Data**: In August, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.995 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative retail sales were 14.741 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In July, the new social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of - 5 billion yuan. The loans on the household side were - 48.93 billion yuan, and enterprise loans were 60 trillion yuan. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was + 1.6%, with a decline in growth rate month - on - month [31][38]. - **Egyptian Data**: Egypt launched safeguard measure investigations on imported steel billets, cold - rolled coils, galvanized sheets, and pre - painted sheets on September 10, 2025, and made a positive preliminary ruling on imported hot - rolled coils on September 10, suggesting the collection of temporary safeguard measure taxes from September 14, 2025, to April 1, 2026 [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation 3.4.1 Supply - The daily average hot metal output of 247 blast furnaces was 2.4055 million tons (+ 0.1171 million tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 34.7% (- 0.5%) [56]. - The small - sample production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0675 million tons, and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.2514 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.109 million tons [62]. 3.4.2 Demand - The small - sample apparent demand for rebar was 1.9807 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons, and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.2616 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.208 million tons [65]. - As of September 9, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points, while that of housing construction projects was 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [74]. - From January to July 2025, China's cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. In July, the steel exports were 9.836 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.158 million tons. The high - frequency data in August showed that direct steel exports remained high, but the export profit shrank recently [77]. 3.4.3 Inventory - The overall inventory situation showed that the rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while the hot - rolled coil inventory started to decline. The total rebar inventory and its breakdown into social and steel mill inventories, as well as the total hot - rolled coil inventory and its breakdown, are presented in the relevant graphs [82][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts is consolidated, and precious metals maintain their strong momentum. The weakening of the US labor market and the potential transmission of tariff impacts make it difficult to eliminate the "stagflation-like" risk, so precious metals are expected to continue their strong performance at high levels [3][7]. - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump's interference with the Fed aims to force early and rapid interest rate cuts, which may increase inflation in the medium and long term, and the precious metals market may be pricing in this factor [17][25]. - The US economy shows signs of slowdown, with GDP growth having some false prosperity, consumption weakening, PMI indicators weakening, and the labor market cooling down [35][44][52]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - In the week, the US dollar and the 10-year US Treasury yield were consolidating at low levels. Precious metals continued their upward momentum from last week, reaching new highs and consolidating near historical highs. Silver also followed the trend of gold. London gold and silver, as well as Shanghai gold and silver, all showed significant increases. The US dollar index was weak, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell again [3]. - The market's focus this week was on the US inflation situation. The previous week's US non-farm payroll data indicated a further cooling of the job market, which promoted the market's expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year. This week's PPI unexpectedly did not fall, and CPI rebounded moderately, which was interpreted by the market as reducing the obstacles to interest rate cuts this year and consolidating the dovish market expectation. The improvement of market risk sentiment allowed silver to catch up with the rise of gold [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Consider holding previous long positions based on the 5-day moving average. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Bullish collar option strategy [9]. 3.2 Macro - level Data Tracking 3.2.1 Market Trading Mainline - The market's trading focus has shifted from tariff games to interest rate cut games. Trump has continuously pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, and the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has fluctuated with the release of economic data and policy developments [17][63][64]. 3.2.2 US Economic Situation - GDP: Although the second - quarter GDP growth was strong on the surface, a detailed analysis of sub - items showed that the growth was somewhat illusory. The sharp decline in imports in the second quarter increased the net export sub - item, while consumption and investment were weak [35]. - PMI: Both Markit and ISM manufacturing and service PMI indicators showed a weakening trend, indicating a slowdown in the US economic expansion [43][44]. - Employment: The US August non - farm payroll data was disappointing, with the number of new jobs falling short of expectations and the unemployment rate rising to a new high since October 2021, indicating a further cooling of the labor market [52]. - Inflation: The US August CPI increased moderately, and the PPI decreased, indicating that although Trump's tariff policy pushed up enterprise costs, enterprises avoided significant price increases last month [59]. 3.2.3 Market Interest Rate Cut Expectations - The market's current bet is that the Fed will cut interest rates three times this year, with the expected timing in September. The market's interest rate cut expectation has fluctuated with the performance of the US macro - economy and Trump's policies [63][64]. 3.3 Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking 3.3.1 Gold Supply and Demand - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the total global gold supply increased slightly by 1% year - on - year to 2423 tons, with a slight decrease in gold mine production and an increase in recycled gold [70]. - Demand: The total global gold demand in the first half of 2025 increased by 13% year - on - year to 2385 tons. Investment demand increased significantly by 117%, while gold jewelry consumption decreased by 18% [70]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, global central banks have been on a gold - buying spree. China, Poland, Turkey, and India are among the active buyers. The reasons for central bank gold purchases include optimizing foreign exchange reserve structures, hedging geopolitical and economic uncertainties, and promoting currency internationalization [78][80]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply and Demand - Supply: In 2024, the global silver supply was 31573 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. It is expected to increase by 2% in 2025 to 32055 tons. The supply is relatively stable due to the associated nature of silver production [82]. - Demand: In 2024, global silver demand was 36208 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. It is expected to be 35713 tons in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. The demand for photovoltaic silver, which has been a major factor affecting silver demand since 2022, is likely to slow down in 2025 due to limited growth space in the photovoltaic industry and the trend of reducing silver consumption [82]. - Inventory: Silver inventory has bottomed out and rebounded, and the supply - demand gap has also converged [82].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand side shows marginal improvement, but the pressure of high supply and low downstream profits restricts the upside space. The market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom this week [5] - The strategy suggests a bottom - oscillating trend for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling straddle combinations on rallies for options [6] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Fundamentals**: Supply shows differentiation, with silicon - iron production slightly decreasing and silicon - manganese production slightly increasing this week. The previous continuous resumption trend has shifted to high - level stable operation. Demand for raw materials remains high as the pig - iron output of 247 steel mills rebounds significantly after the parade. However, the recovery of steel demand in the second week of September is not obvious, and the risk of production cuts affecting raw - material demand still exists due to low steel profits. The cost side supports silicon - manganese, with a slight increase in electricity prices in major production areas and stable manganese - ore port inventories, which are significantly lower than the same period in previous years [5] - **Market sentiment**: Rumors of energy - consumption control in some industrial - silicon production areas have disturbed the ferro - alloy supply side, but the high - supply problem still exists, so one should not be overly optimistic about the rebound height [5] - **Strategy**: Single - side trading is expected to oscillate at the bottom; arbitrage requires waiting and seeing; options suggest selling straddle combinations on rallies [6] 2. Core Logic Analysis - **Demand**: The daily average pig - iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1171 million tons. The weekly demand for silicon - iron in five major steel types (about 70% of the total demand) is 19,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons; the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types (70%) is 122,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,400 tons [11] - **Supply**: The sample opening rate of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 36.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%; the national silicon - iron output (weekly supply) is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons. The sample opening rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises is 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93%; the national silicon - manganese output (99% of weekly supply) is 214,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons [12] - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 12, the national inventory of 60 independent silicon - iron enterprises is 69,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the national inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national production capacity) is 167,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons [13] 3. Weekly Data Tracking - **Spot price - basis**: There are price and basis trend charts for Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 and Inner Mongolia silicon - iron 72%FeSi from 2021 - 2025 [18] - **Production situation of dual - silicon enterprises**: There are charts showing the weekly output and opening rate of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24] - **Steel - mill production situation**: There are charts showing the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate, weekly steel output, profitability rate, social steel inventory, and daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [29] - **Silicon - manganese cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - manganese in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [31] - **Silicon - iron cost - profit**: On September 11, 2025, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron in different regions are presented, with all regions showing losses [41] - **Cost of carbon elements and electricity price**: There are price trend charts for Fugu semi - coke small materials, Yulin steam - coal lump coal, Ningxia chemical coke, and regional electricity prices from 2021 - 2025 [48][51] - **Bidding prices of double - silicon steel by Hebei representative steel mills**: There are price trend charts for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese procurement prices of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2020 - 2025 [53] - **Monthly output of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron supply**: There are charts showing the monthly output and cumulative output of domestic silicon - manganese and silicon - iron from 2021 - 2025 [60][63] - **Import and export of manganese ore and silicon - iron**: There are charts showing the monthly net import volume of manganese ore and the monthly net export volume of silicon - iron, including the cumulative and year - on - year data [67] - **Demand for magnesium metal**: There are charts showing the price of Fugu magnesium metal Mg99.9% and the cumulative output of magnesium metal in Yulin, Shaanxi from 2020 - 2025 [69] - **Silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants vs. steel mills**: There are charts showing the silicon - iron inventory of alloy plants, the regional distribution of alloy - plant silicon - iron inventory, the available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory, and its regional distribution from 2021 - 2025 [73] - **Manganese - ore inventory of alloy plants, steel mills, and ports**: There are charts showing the available days of steel - mill silicon - manganese inventory, its regional distribution, the total manganese - ore inventory at Tianjin Port, and the silicon - manganese inventory of alloy plants from 2021 - 2025 [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]