Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Data - PK604: Closing price 7800, down 26 (-0.33%); Volume 21,399, down 25.60%; Open interest 32,309, down 0.31% [3] - PK610: Closing price 8216, down 24 (-0.29%); Volume 217, up 80.83%; Open interest 2,773, up 3.24% [3] - PK601: Open interest 1,012, unchanged [3] Spot and Basis Data - Spot prices: Henan Nanyang 7400, Shandong Jining 8400, Shandong Linyi 8400; Rize peanut meal 3250, Rize soybean meal 3100; Peanut oil 14320, Rize first-grade soybean oil 8330 [3] - Price changes: All spot prices unchanged except Rize first-grade soybean oil down 50 [3] - Basis: Henan Nanyang -400, Shandong Jining 600, Shandong Linyi 600; Soybean meal - peanut meal, -4; Peanut oil - soybean oil, 5990 [3] - Import prices: Sudanese peanuts 8600, unchanged; Senegalese peanuts price unchanged [3] Spread Data - PK04 - PK10 spread: -416, down 2 [3] Group 3: Market Analysis - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China are stable. Northeast Jilin Fuyu 308 common peanuts at 4.55 yuan/jin, Liaoning Changtu at 4.55 yuan/jin; Henan Baisha common peanuts at 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, Shandong Junan at 3.5 yuan/jin [5] - Imported peanut prices are stable. Sudanese refined peanuts at 8600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts at 9200 yuan/ton, Indian 50/60 peanuts at 8000 yuan/ton [5] - Peanut oil prices are stable. Domestic first-grade common peanut oil at 14300 yuan/ton, small-pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [5][7] - By-product prices are stable. Rize soybean meal at 3100 yuan/ton, peanut meal with 48% protein at 3100 yuan/ton [7] - Short-term peanut prices are expected to be relatively stable due to increased supply and weak downstream demand. Peanut futures are likely to fluctuate at the bottom [5][9] Group 4: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Go short-term long on 05 peanuts at low prices [10] - Calendar spread: Wait and see [11] - Options: Sell PK603 - P - 8200 at high prices [12] Group 5: Relevant Figures - Figure 1: Shandong peanut spot prices [14] - Figure 2: Peanut oil mill crushing profits [14] - Figure 3: Peanut oil prices [21] - Figure 4: Peanut spot and continuous contract basis [21] - Figure 5: Peanut 4 - 10 contract spread [23] - Figure 6: Peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It assesses the current market situation, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each sector. The overall market is affected by multiple factors such as policy changes, geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors, showing different trends and characteristics in different sectors. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: There are differences between bulls and bears, and the market is volatile. Short - term market is affected by policy and may fluctuate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Suggestions include short - term grid operations, IM\IC 2606 long + ETF short arbitrage, and double - buy option strategies [18][21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The performance is differentiated, and the trend is unclear. Short - term market sentiment is repaired, but the odds of going long are limited. It is recommended to stop profit on previous long positions in batches, and consider shorting the basis of 30Y active bonds [22][23][24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure is obvious, and the market is under pressure. It is recommended to have a bearish view, conduct M79 reverse arbitrage, and sell wide - straddle options [26][28][29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are falling, and domestic sugar prices are oscillating. International sugar is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and domestic sugar can be considered for low - buying and high - selling in the range [29][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: Due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations and Indonesia's policy, the oils market is falling. It is recommended to have a short - term oscillating view on oils and try shorting palm oil at high prices [34][37]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: Wheat and corn auctions continue, and the spot is stable. It is recommended to have a bullish view on outer - market 03 corn after stabilization, and short - term long on 07 corn after correction [38][40][41]. - **Hogs**: Supply pressure increases, but the market is still strong. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell wide - straddle options [41][42][43]. - **Peanuts**: The spot is stable, and the market is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on 05 peanuts at low prices and sell pk603 - C - 8200 options [44][45]. - **Eggs**: Demand improves, and prices are stable with a slight increase. It is recommended to go long on the far - month 5 - contract at low prices [46][49]. - **Apples**: Cold - storage inventory is low, and prices are firm. It is recommended to take partial profit on the 5 - month contract long positions and short the 10 - month contract at high prices [50][52][53]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales progress is fast, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to go long on Zheng cotton at low prices [57]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel is turning to inventory accumulation, and prices are oscillating. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating and bullish view, short the coil - coal ratio at high prices, and hold the short position of the coil - rebar spread [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuations are large, and it is recommended to participate cautiously. It is expected to continue wide - range oscillations [61][63][64]. - **Iron Ore**: Market expectations are volatile, and it is recommended to be bearish at high prices [64][65][67]. - **Ferroalloys**: Driven by cost, prices are oscillating strongly. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish view and sell out - of - the - money straddle options [68][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff ruling fails again, and the previous trading logic continues. It is recommended to hold long positions near the 5 - day moving average and use a collar option bullish strategy [71][74][75]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical tensions lead to high - level oscillations. It is recommended to go long on platinum at low prices and be cautious about going long on palladium before the 232 investigation result is announced [75][77][78]. - **Copper**: Short - term fluctuations increase, but the bullish trend remains. It is recommended to hold long positions entered at 98000 - 99000 yuan/ton [80][82][83]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals increases price fluctuations. The price is under pressure due to factors such as potential inventory increase and cost decline [84][86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is oscillating at a high level, and it is necessary to be vigilant about market sentiment cooling. It is recommended to have a bearish view on the oscillation [87][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to continue to oscillate at a high level with the sector [92][93]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the impact of capital. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see, and aggressive investors hold short positions with strict position control [94][96][97]. - **Lead**: Attention should be paid to capital sentiment. It is recommended to hold remaining long positions and take profit on out - of - the - money call options [98][100][101]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian remarks stimulate price increases. It is recommended to have a bullish view at low prices [102][103][104]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price. It is recommended to go long after correction and stabilization [104][105][107]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to short at the upper limit of the range. The medium - term demand is weakening [108]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to factors such as policy and market sentiment [109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The position is decreasing, and there may be a correction. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [111][115][116]. - **Tin**: Bulls are enthusiastic, and prices reach a new high. It is recommended to be cautious about high - level fluctuations [116][118][119]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The second - stage negotiation of the Palestine - Israel issue is in progress, and prices will continue to decline in the second half of January. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct a 6 - 10 positive arbitrage [121][122]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Continue to pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a wide - range oscillating view and pay attention to the Iran event [123][124][125]. - **Asphalt**: Crude oil cost fluctuations increase, and supply - demand is weak. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and hold the BU4 - 6 positive arbitrage [125][128][129]. - **Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical risks increase fluctuations. It is recommended to be vigilant about risks and hold the FU59 positive arbitrage [130][132]. - **Natural Gas**: TTF/JKM rebounds, and HH continues to decline. It is recommended to add short positions on TTF and JKM in the third quarter and sell long - term rolling out - of - the - money call options [133][136]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to the Iranian situation. It is recommended to have a short - term bullish and long - term bearish view [137][138][139]. - **PX&PTA**: Downstream production cuts increase, and cost support strengthens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view and conduct a 3,5 - contract positive arbitrage [140][141][142]. - **BZ&EB**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and styrene short - stops boost the rise. It is recommended to have a bullish view in the short term and conduct an arbitrage of short pure benzene and long styrene [142][143][144]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Seasonal inventory accumulation is obvious. It is recommended to have a bearish view and sell call options [144][146]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is sufficient, and terminal demand weakens. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [146][147][148]. - **Bottle Chips**: Prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to have a high - level oscillating view [148][149][150]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances strengthen cost support. It is recommended to have a bullish view [151][153]. - **Plastic PP**: It is recommended to hold long positions on L and PP 2605 contracts and sell the PP2605 put 6100 contract [154][155]. - **Caustic Soda**: Prices are weakening. It is recommended to have a bearish view [156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: This week, it shows a wide - range oscillating trend. It is recommended to short at an appropriate time and sell out - of - the - money call options on the far - month at a high level [158][161]. - **Glass**: The futures price is falling. It is recommended to wait and short at an appropriate time and conduct an arbitrage of short glass and long soda ash [162][163][164]. - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to hold short positions [164][165][166]. - **Logs**: The spot rebounds slightly. It is recommended to go long in small quantities and pay attention to the LG03 - 05 reverse arbitrage [167][168][169]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The rebound of cultural paper is weak. It is recommended to wait and sell OP2602 - C - 4200 options [170][171]. - **Natural Rubber**: Global automobile sales slow down slightly. It is recommended to wait and see on the RU 05 contract and hold long positions on the NR 03 contract [172][175]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: Crude oil freight increases marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions on the BR 03 contract [176][178].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver prices reached new all - time highs today due to factors such as the US inflation data being in line with expectations, the escalation of the US - Iran situation driving up safe - haven demand, and the planned launch of a 100 - ounce silver futures contract by CME [3][7]. - The platinum and palladium markets also showed certain trends. The slowdown of US core inflation was beneficial for precious metals pricing, and geopolitical events and policy uncertainties affected the market [15]. - From the 2026 supply - demand balance sheet, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern and has stronger upward momentum compared to palladium, which is shifting from a supply - demand deficit to a surplus [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Gold and Silver Market - London gold hit a new all - time high of $4639.723 per ounce, and London silver reached $91.551 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract reached a new high of 1041 yuan per gram and closed at 1040.62 yuan, up 1.07%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 11996 lots to 348,500 lots. The Shanghai silver main contract reached a new high of 22,995 yuan per kilogram and closed at 22,763 yuan, up 8.03%, with the weighted daily position increasing by 18213 lots to 736,500 lots [3]. 3.1.2 Platinum and Palladium Market - London platinum and palladium both rose and then fell. As of 3 pm, London platinum was trading at $2390.90, and London palladium was at $1860.56. The platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange opened higher and fluctuated. The platinum main contract PT2606 closed up 3.67% at 630.65 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position increasing by 419 lots to 38859 lots, and the settled funds reaching 8.823 billion yuan (an inflow of 1.847 billion yuan). The palladium main contract PD2606 closed up 1.60% at 495.50 yuan per gram, with the weighted daily position decreasing by 182 lots to 15022 lots, and the settled funds reaching 2.682 billion yuan (an inflow of 476 million yuan) [11][13]. 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 US Macroeconomic Data - The US December un - adjusted CPI annual rate was 2.7%, in line with expectations; the un - adjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%; the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.3%, in line with expectations; and the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3% [4]. 3.2.2 Geopolitical Situation - The EU is discussing additional sanctions against Iran. Trump cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials, and the US National Security Team will formulate a strategy against Iran [4]. 3.2.3 Fed Views - Fed's Musalem said there are few reasons for further policy easing in the short term and still believes inflation risks will be more persistent than expected [4]. 3.2.4 Fed Observation - The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in January is 2.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 97.2%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 26.8%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 72.5%. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in April has risen slightly from 38% to 42% [4]. 3.2.5 Other Information - On the 13th, CME announced plans to launch a 100 - ounce silver futures contract on February 9, 2026, pending regulatory approval [6]. 3.3 Logic Analysis 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - US inflation data was in line with expectations, and the US - Iran situation and previous geopolitical events increased the safe - haven demand. The planned launch of a mini - silver contract by CME may bring more liquidity to the market, driving up gold and silver prices. The silver market shows high - level and high - volatility characteristics. Short - term attention should be paid to the US court's ruling on tariff policies [7]. 3.3.2 Platinum and Palladium - The slowdown of core inflation in the US is beneficial for precious metals pricing. Geopolitical events and policy uncertainties such as the "232 investigation" and "double - anti" investigations affect the market. From the supply - demand balance sheet, platinum has stronger upward momentum [15][16][18]. 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Gold and Silver - Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold based on the previous all - time high at the end of December, and hold long positions in Shanghai silver based on the support near the previous all - time high on the 12th of this month. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [8][9][10]. 3.4.2 Platinum and Palladium - Unilateral: Generally, it is recommended to go long on platinum on dips. For palladium, it is recommended to go long cautiously on dips before the "232 investigation" results are announced, but pay attention to risks. Arbitrage and options: Wait and see [19][20][21]. 3.5 Data Reference - Multiple charts show the relationships between the US dollar index, real yields, and precious metal prices, as well as the relationships between domestic and foreign futures prices, futures - spot prices, and other data for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium [24][31][73].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market factors, and the recent sharp correction in cotton prices is expected to result in short - term oscillations with a slightly upward bias [6]. - It is recommended to consider buying on dips for Zhengzhou cotton, while maintaining a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options strategies [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts increased by 50, 50, and 15 respectively, while the CY01 contract decreased by 395. The trading volumes of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of the CF05 contract decreased by 207,513, and its open interest increased by 5,210 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 113 to 15,970 yuan/ton, and the Cot A price was 75.00 cents/pound. The prices of some other spot products also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spreads**: In the cotton and棉纱 markets, there were various spread changes. For instance, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 40 with no change, and the 1 - 5 month spread of 棉纱 was - 1,020, a decrease of 440 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - In Xinjiang, the number of ginned cotton factories that ended processing increased last week, and the processing volume continued to decline. The domestic lint market price has been rising during the acquisition and processing period this year, and processing enterprises generally made profits through the "buy - and - sell" model. The average purchase price of inland seed cotton last week was 6.78 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.17 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of January 11, 1,096 cotton processing enterprises had conducted notarized inspections, with a total inspection weight of 6.784 million tons [4]. - The average temperature in the main cotton - producing areas of the US decreased, and the precipitation remained low. The drought in the main cotton - producing areas of the US is expected to intensify in the first quarter [5]. - In December 2025, Vietnam's textile and clothing imports and exports performed well, with a 47% month - on - month increase in cotton imports [5]. - **Trading Logic**: The cotton sales progress is fast, and the downstream stocking willingness has increased. The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, and the short - term trend is expected to be slightly upward [6]. - **Trading Strategies** - For the single - side strategy, it is expected that the US cotton will oscillate within a range in the short term, and it is advisable to consider buying Zhengzhou cotton on dips [8]. - For the arbitrage and options strategies, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [9][10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The overall price of pure cotton yarn is stable with a slight decline. The high - count combed yarn price is firm, but the overall market trading atmosphere is still light. The prices of some yarn products are provided, such as the OEC21S at about 16,600 yuan/ton [10]. - The all - cotton grey fabric market has partial stocking. Most manufacturers believe that there will be no significant improvement this year. The prices of regular varieties are stable, and the dyeing factories plan to start their holidays at the end of January, while some weaving factories will start their holidays in mid - January [11]. Third Part: Options - **Volatility**: The 10 - day HV of cotton increased slightly yesterday. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively [13]. - **Options Strategy**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for options [14][15]. Fourth Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and international cotton markets, cotton basis for different months, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton for different contracts [17][20][24][25].

研究所 天然气研发报告 天然气日报 2026 年 1 月 14 日 天然气市场日报 | | | | 国际天然气价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元/MMBTU | 2026/1/13 | 2026/1/12 | 2026/1/7 | | 2025/12/15 日度涨跌幅 7日涨跌幅 | | 30日涨跌幅 | | HH 2602 | 3.419 | 3.409 | 3.525 | 3.747 | 0.29% | -3.01% | -8.75% | | HH 2603 | 2.882 | 2.852 | 2.913 | 3.334 | 1.05% | -1.06% | -13.56% | | JKM 2602 | 9.61 | 9.61 | 9.605 | 9.68 | 0.00% | 0.05% | -0.72% | | JKM 2603 | 9.895 | 9.87 | 9.545 | 9.39 | 0.25% | 3.67% | 5.38% | | TFU 2602 | 31.473 | 30.246 | 28 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the overall oil market is expected to fluctuate, with increased volatility. Palm oil can consider high - selling and low - buying operations, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend due to lack of independent drivers. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Data Analysis - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 8000 yuan, up 14 yuan. Palm oil 2605 is 8748 yuan, down 30 yuan. Rapeseed oil 2605 is 8949 yuan, down 68 yuan. The basis of each variety varies by region [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 138 yuan, down 6 yuan; palm oil is 66 yuan, down 34 yuan; rapeseed oil is 19 yuan, down 12 yuan [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The 05 - contract Y - P spread is - 748 yuan, up 44 yuan; OI - Y is 949 yuan, down 82 yuan; OI - P is 201 yuan, down 38 yuan. The oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.02 [2] - **Import Profit**: The on - paper profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 85 yuan, and the on - paper profit of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 1406 yuan [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 tons, down from last week; palm oil is 73.6 tons, up slightly; rapeseed oil is 25.1 tons, down from last week [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% this year, maintaining the current 40% palm - based fuel and 60% diesel ratio. Starting from March 1st, Indonesia will raise the export levy on crude palm oil from 10% to 12.5%, and the levy on refined products will also increase by 2.5 percentage points [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of palm oil is 73.6 tons, a 0.30% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The market rumors of 4 near - month purchases. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is not recommended to chase the high [4][5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills last week was 176.58 tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.51 tons, a 5.17% decrease from last week. The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [5] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed crushing volume of coastal oil mills last week was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.1 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons. The import profit inversion has widened. The near - month contract has both upward pressure and downward support [6] 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market fluctuates. Palm oil can use high - selling and low - buying strategies, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [9] - **Options**: Wait and see [10] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, showing the spot basis of different oils and their monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026 [13][14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential, and it may experience a slight correction in the short - term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Thread Steel - **Futures**: RB05 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day; RB10 at 3210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; RB01 at 3143 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The 05 - contract thread steel's on - disk profit was - 167 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 97 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel remained at 3270 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable was 3200 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 38 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 10 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 57 yuan/ton. The profit of Shanghai thread steel rolling was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, while the profit of East China thread steel was - 106 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 closed at 3306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; HC10 at 3330 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC01 at 3251 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's on - disk profit was - 23 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 10 - contract was 3 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 11 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest deliverable was 3280 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 26 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 50 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 29 yuan/ton. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 368 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 180 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel was 3270 yuan, unchanged; Beijing Jingye was 3170 yuan, unchanged; Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, up 10 yuan; Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan, unchanged. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential. It may experience a slight correction in the short - term and maintain a weak and volatile trend. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to thread steel spread. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] 3.2.3 Important Information - In December 2025, China exported 1130.1 million tons of steel, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. [10] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 vehicles; from January to December, the cumulative vehicle exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. [11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the basis, price spreads, on - disk profits, and cash profits of thread steel and hot - rolled coil, as well as the spreads between different regions and products. [16][18][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 14, ferroalloy futures prices rose overall. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5690, up 0.14%, with a decrease of 4167 in open interest; the manganese ferro (SM) main contract closed at 5920, up 0.07%, with a decrease of 12348 in open interest [6]. - For SF, the spot price was stable on the 14th. The short - term operating rate rebounded slightly, but due to differential electricity prices in Shaanxi, there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future. Demand is in a recovery cycle for hot metal, but steel inventory accumulation may limit the recovery space of blast furnaces. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectation, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For SM, manganese ore spot was slightly bullish on the 14th, while SM spot was slightly bearish. The operating rate of sample enterprises decreased slightly, and new production capacity was put into operation at the end of the year, with overall stable supply. In January, blast furnaces are expected to have a phased recovery, and pre - Spring Festival restocking demand will support raw material demand. With the decline of manganese ore port inventory and rising overseas mine quotes, SM is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term under cost - push [6]. - Unilateral trading: Expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push lead to a short - term volatile and bullish trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the SF main contract was 5690, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly decrease of 170, trading volume of 150108 (a daily decrease of 12853), and open interest of 220837 (a daily decrease of 4167). The closing price of the SM main contract was 5920, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 80, trading volume of 143373 (a daily increase of 224), and open interest of 248641 (a daily decrease of 12348) [3]. - **Spot Market**: For SF, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For SM, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5630, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis and spread of SF and SM in different regions showed various daily and weekly changes. The SF - SM spread was - 230, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 90 [3]. - **Raw Materials**: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabonese lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small pieces in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy**: Due to the expectations of marginal improvement in supply - demand and cost - push, the short - term trend is volatile and bullish. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - **Important Information**: UMK announced the February 2026 manganese ore quotation to China, with the price of Mn36% South African lump at 4.32 US dollars per ton - degree, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 US dollars per ton - degree. In December 2025, China's steel exports were 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2%; the cumulative steel exports from January to December were 119.019 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [8]. Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, spreads, basis, spot prices, electricity prices, production costs, and production profits [13][14][15][16][18][19][21].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The situation in Iran continues to escalate, and oil prices are strong. However, the market has gradually digested the impact of Venezuela on oil prices, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The increase in raw material discounts has not been fully traded, and the market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived as scheduled. The weekly supply and demand have decreased simultaneously on a month - on - month basis. The industrial chain inventory remains at a low level, and the spot price is relatively firm. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On January 14, 2026, the price of BU2603 (the main contract) was 3168 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89% from the previous day; BU2604 was 3172 yuan, up 28 yuan or 0.89%; BU2605 was 3175 yuan, up 94 yuan or 3.05%; SC2602 was 445.5 yuan, down 0.1 yuan or - 0.02%; the price of Brent's first - line contract was 65.22 US dollars, up 1.1 US dollars or 1.68%. The main contract's position was 20.3 million lots, down 0.5 million lots or - 2.20%; the main contract's trading volume was 19.9 million lots, down 8.1 million lots or - 28.99%. The warehouse receipt quantity was 46450 tons, up 5800 tons or 14.27% [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The BU04 - 05 spread was - 3.00 yuan, down 66.00 yuan or - 104.76%; the BU04 - 03 spread was - 4.00 yuan, unchanged; the Shandong - main contract basis was 58.00 yuan, down 8.00 yuan or - 12.12%; the East China - main contract basis was - 22.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 466.67%; the South China - main contract basis was 8.00 yuan, down 28.00 yuan or - 77.78% [3]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price was 3100 yuan, up 20 yuan or 0.65%; the East China market price was 3150 yuan, unchanged; the South China market price was 3180 yuan, unchanged; Shandong gasoline was 7087 yuan, up 41 yuan or 0.58%; Shandong diesel was 5832 yuan, up 54 yuan or 0.93%; Shandong petroleum coke was 2970 yuan, unchanged; the diluted asphalt discount was - 13.2, unchanged; the central parity rate of the exchange rate was 7.0120, up 0.0017 or 0.02% [3]. - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit was - 2.93 yuan, down 22.82 yuan or 114.73%; the refined oil comprehensive profit was 68.66 yuan, down 14.11 yuan or - 17.05%; the BU - SC cracking spread was - 445.07 yuan, up 25.51 yuan or 5.42%; the gasoline spot - Brent spread was 730.76 yuan, down 21.33 yuan or - 2.84%; the diesel spot - Brent spread was 310.14 yuan, down 9.83 yuan or - 3.07% [3]. Part 2: Market Analysis - **Market Overview**: On January 14, the average price of the domestic asphalt market was 3239 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03% from the previous day. In the Shandong market, the supply decreased slightly, and the prices of crude oil and asphalt futures rose, which boosted market sentiment. Traders slightly raised their shipping prices. In the East China market, the high - priced resources in the social inventory were not sold well, but the main refineries' road and shipping deliveries were good, and the asphalt price was stable. In the South China market, some main refineries limited their shipments, and the local price remained firm [6]. - **Market in Different Regions**: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price rose to 3130 - 3220 yuan/ton. The rise in crude oil prices drove up the asphalt futures price, and most traders slightly raised their shipping prices. However, the terminal demand was weak, and the mainstream transaction price was still at the lower end. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3210 - 3210 yuan/ton. The main refineries produced asphalt stably, and the road and shipping deliveries were smooth, which reduced the refinery inventory. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3080 - 3150 yuan/ton. The supply and demand were balanced, and some resources were sold at a premium due to limited shipments from some main refineries [6][7]. - **Market Outlook**: The situation in Iran is escalating, and oil prices are strong. The impact of Venezuela on oil prices has been digested, and the expectation of tight asphalt raw material supply has eased. The market shows high - level fluctuations. At the beginning of the year, the off - season has arrived, with simultaneous month - on - month decreases in supply and demand. The inventory is low, the spot price is firm, and the short - term disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [8]. Part 3: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China, the market price of asphalt in Shandong, the price of Shandong local refinery gasoline, and the price of Shandong local refinery diesel [10].

股指期货数据日报 2026年1月14日 IM每日行情 IM行情概要 IM成交持仓 单位：点、手、亿元 单位：手 | | 收盘价 | +/- | 成交量 | +/- | | 成交额 | +/- | 持仓量 | +/- | 持仓保证金 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证1000 | 8257.17 | 0.66% | 48,980 | | 8 % | 8,843 | 7 % | | | | | IM2601 | 8242.00 | 0.08% | 65,555 | | 8 % | 1,090 | 8 % | 47,766 | -6,665 | 9 4 | | IM2602 | 8215.00 | 0.23% | 35,068 | | 61% | 582 | 62% | 52,411 | 12,466 | 103 | | IM2603 | 8156.00 | 0.06% | 225,371 | | 26% | 3,717 | 27% | 212,359 | 4,547 | 416 | | IM2606 ...