Group 1: Report Summary - Report industry investment ratings: Not provided - Core view: The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, etc., and provides corresponding trading strategies based on macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and relevant news events [4][7][12] Group 2: Copper Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Copper 2511 contract closed at 85,800 yuan/ton, up 0.11%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased positions by 5,047 lots to 556,300 lots [2] - Spot: The spot premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper rebounded to 90 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Guangdong inventory increased for 5 consecutive days, and the consumption was poor, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The North China spot market remained sluggish, with a discount of 150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [2] Important Information - Freeport McMoRan plans to exit the benchmark pricing system for global copper ore sales to protect smelter profitability due to the historically low benchmark TC/RC fees in 2025 [3] Logic Analysis - Macro: The US employment market cooled, and Powell hinted at a possible rate cut and an end to balance - sheet reduction. Fundamentals: Multiple mines reduced production, and the supply of copper mines tightened. The consumption was weak, but the purchase demand might increase after price corrections [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a "buy on dips" strategy and be cautious about chasing high prices. - Arbitrage: Hold inter - market positive spreads and arrange inter - period positive spreads after domestic inventory starts to decline. - Options: Wait and see [7] Group 3: Alumina Market Review - Futures: The Alumina 2601 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 2,797 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions showed a downward trend [9] Relevant Information - Some aluminum plants made procurement, and the production of some alumina enterprises was affected by factors such as ore shortage and strikes [10][11] Logic Analysis - The static surplus of alumina was absorbed by downstream stockpiling, but the surplus trend remained. The price was expected to be volatile and weak before the supply - demand pattern improved [12] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [15][16] Group 4: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 20 yuan to 20,910 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in different regions showed different trends [18] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and Powell's speech on the economy and monetary policy, and the export and inventory data of electrolytic aluminum [18] Trading Logic - The impact of the US tariff policy upgrade on aluminum prices was expected to be less severe than in April. The medium - term upward trend of aluminum prices remained unchanged, and the consumption showed resilience [19] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not change the medium - term upward trend. Wait and see in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [19] Group 5: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - Futures: The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,365 yuan/ton. - Spot: The spot prices in various regions were mostly stable [21] Relevant Information - Trump's tariff policy upgrade and the inventory data of recycled aluminum alloy ingots [21] Trading Logic - The impact of the tariff policy upgrade on aluminum - based products was expected to be less severe. The global aluminum supply - demand remained in a shortage pattern after re - balancing, and the fundamentals provided some support [23] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term decline due to panic does not affect the medium - term upward trend. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [24] Group 6: Zinc Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Zinc 2511 decreased by 1.17% to 22,015 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index increased by 675 lots to 210,700 lots. - Spot: The trading volume did not improve significantly [26] Relevant Information - The domestic zinc ingot inventory increased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of refined zinc [28] Logic Analysis - The supply in China increased significantly, while the consumption did not improve. The price of LME zinc was strong. The pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic was expected to continue [28] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may fluctuate more violently. Short positions can be arranged at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [27][31] Group 7: Lead Market Review - Futures: The Shanghai Lead 2511 increased by 0.15% to 17,110 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index increased by 886 lots to 84,500 lots. - Spot: The downstream demand was for rigid replenishment, and the trading was average [30] Relevant Information - The domestic lead ingot inventory decreased, and the international organization predicted the supply - demand situation of lead [31] Logic Analysis - The current supply - demand of lead was weak, but the supply was weaker. The price was expected to be strong in the short term, but there was a risk of a decline in the future [33] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price may decline from high levels. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [34] Group 8: Nickel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2511 increased by 100 to 121,180 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 5,896 lots. - Spot: The premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36] Relevant Information - A fire occurred in an Indonesian nickel processing plant, and the Indonesian nickel - iron market was under pressure [37] Logic Analysis - The fire had no impact on production. The supply - demand of refined nickel was basically flat, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The nickel price was under pressure [37] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2511 contract [38][39][41] Group 9: Stainless Steel Market Review - Futures: The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 30 to 12,560 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 174 lots. - Spot: The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products were reported [43] Important Information - Thailand imposed anti - dumping duties on stainless steel cold - rolled products from Vietnam [44] Logic Analysis - The production of stainless steel increased in October, but the demand was restricted. The price was under pressure, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion and production plans [44] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be weak and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [45][46] Group 10: Tin Market Review - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai Tin 2511 closed at 281,710 yuan/ton, decreased by 430 yuan/ton or 0.15%, and the position increased by 632 lots to 65,742 lots. - Spot: The spot price decreased, and the trading was average [48] Relevant Information - The global semiconductor sales increased, and the production of domestic tin smelters changed [49][50] Logic Analysis - The Fed hinted at a rate cut, the supply of tin mines was still tight, and the demand was slowly recovering. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and electronic consumption [52] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The price is expected to be high and volatile in the short term. Pay attention to Myanmar's resumption of production. - Options: Wait and see [53][54] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Important Information - A South Korean company will acquire a stake in a Vietnamese silicon wafer factory [55] Logic Analysis - The production of industrial silicon was affected by power plant maintenance and factory shutdowns. The demand was strong in the short term, but there might be a slight surplus in November. The price was expected to be range - bound [57] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Avoid long positions. - Arbitrage: None. - Options: None [58][59][60] Group 12: Polysilicon Important Information - The magazine emphasized the importance of stabilizing market expectations and introducing favorable policies [62] Logic Analysis - The production of polysilicon increased in October, but the demand weakened. The price was expected to break through new highs in the medium - to - long term, and long positions could be held in the short term [63] Strategy Suggestion - Unilateral: Hold long positions. - Arbitrage: Hold the reverse spread of the 2511 and 2512 contracts with a target range of (- 3500, - 3300). - Options: Adjust the previous double - buying strategy, stop - profit and exit the put option, and continue to hold the call option [64][65][66] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - Futures: The Lithium Carbonate 2511 contract decreased by 220 to 72,940 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,780 lots, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2,104 to 33,076 tons. - Spot: The spot prices remained unchanged [69] Important Information - Tesla's factory increased production, and China's new - energy vehicle sales increased [70] Logic Analysis - The supply of lithium carbonate was uncertain, and the demand was strong. The price was expected to be strong and volatile in the current range [71] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Treat the price as strong and volatile. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2601 contract [72]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 15 日 航运日报 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1.120.6 | -15.6 | -1.37% | 3.412.0 | -30.32% | 11,335.0 | -13.84% | | EC2512 | 1,708.6 | 34.5 | 2.06% | 42.616.0 | -8.76% | 27,023.0 | -0.62% | | EC2602 | 1.463.4 | -1.0 | -0.07% | 8,209.0 | -20.29% | 9.822.0 | 1.15% | | EC2604 | 1,142.0 | -8.0 | -0.70% | 4,498.0 | -3 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 | 银河期货油脂日报 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油脂现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 品种 各品种地区现货价 | 2601收盘价 | 涨跌 | | | | | | | 现货基差（分别为：一豆、24度、三菜） | | | | | 豆油 | 8252 | 12 | 张家港 | 广东 | 天津 | | 广东 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 8462 | | | | 8552 | 8432 | | 300 | -10 | 210 | -10 | 180 | 0 | | 棕榈油 | 9322 | (8) | 广东 | 张家港 | 天津 | | 广州 | | | 涨跌幅 张家港 涨跌幅 天津 涨跌幅 | | | | 9242 | | | | 9322 | 9422 | | -80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 10 月 15 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/10/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2127 | 16 | 0.75% | 307,920 | -16.73% | 697,057 | 5.07% | | C2605 | | 2218 | 16 | 0.72% | 38,063 | -14.77% | 146,983 | 8.44% | | C2509 | | 2247 | 12 | 0.53% | 1,532 | -3.83% | 2,672 | -6.54% | | CS2601 | | 2418 | 17 | 0.70% | 74,918 | 9.14% | 153,549 | 14.03% | | CS2605 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated October 15, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D Report [1][2] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Market - PK604 closed at 8108, up 66 (0.81%), with a trading volume of 445 (-45.60%) and an open interest of 1,314 (10.14%) [2] - PK510 data is unavailable [2] - PK601 closed at 8062, up 52 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 124,355 (-26.10%) and an open interest of 186,194 (14.40%) [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8400, and 8400 respectively, with no change [2] - Import prices for Sudanese rice were 8600 and Senegalese rice were 7800, with no change [2] - The basis for Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 738, 338, and 338 respectively [2] Spreads - The PK01 - PK04 spread was -46, down 14 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Peanut Prices - Peanut prices in Henan and Northeast China were stable. The expected short - term trend for peanut spot is relatively strong [4] - The price of some peanut oil mills' purchases before suspension was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price was 7940 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable, with domestic first - class ordinary peanut oil at 14500 yuan/ton and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16500 yuan/ton [4] By - products - Rizhao soybean meal was slightly weaker, at 2930 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday), and peanut meal was short - term weak due to a high unit protein price difference with soybean meal [7] Group 4: Core View - Supply is still low, and downstream demand is weak. In the short term, peanut prices will be relatively stable. The peanut futures market may experience short - term narrow - range fluctuations. The new - season peanut production is expected to be similar to last year, and the planting cost has decreased. The 01 contract of peanuts will still show a strong - side shock [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies Unilateral Trading - The 01 and 05 peanut contracts are in a low - level shock. Traders can take long positions on pullbacks with a light position [10] Spread Trading - Traders should wait and see for spread trading [11] Options Trading - Sell and hold the pk601 - P - 7600 option [12] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes six charts showing data such as Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil prices, and contract spreads [14][21][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the futures market, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It provides insights into their market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand relationships, macro - economic factors, and industry news [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Bean Meal - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean and bean meal indices showed small increases. Conab estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production and export volume. EU's soybean and bean meal imports had changes. Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories also changed. Macro factors led to increased downward pressure on the bean meal market [16][17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points for the 05 contract, M11 - 1 positive spread arbitrage, and selling call options at high points [18]. Sugar - **Market Conditions**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar futures rebounded. Brazil's sugar exports increased in October. Some sugar mills in China started operation. Globally, sugar production was expected to increase, and the price of raw sugar was fundamentally weak. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar was expected to follow the foreign market [19][20][21]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting a rebound and repair in the short - term, with a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [22]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Conditions**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices changed slightly. Malaysia adjusted palm oil reference prices, and Indonesia planned to regulate palm oil exports. Domestic soybean oil was slightly increasing in inventory, and rapeseed oil was marginally reducing inventory. Affected by the macro - environment, the market was expected to fluctuate [23][24][26]. - **Trading Strategies**: Considering light - position long - entry on significant pull - backs, OI 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage without chasing high prices, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [26]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Conditions**: CBOT corn futures rebounded slightly, but the harvest pressure was heavy. Domestic new corn was concentrated on the market, and the spot price continued to fall. The 01 contract showed signs of stabilization [29][30]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long - entry for the 12 - contract on dips, light - position long - entry for the 01 contract, and gradually establishing long - term long - positions for the 05 and 07 contracts [31]. Live Pigs - **Market Conditions**: Pig prices were oscillating, with stable prices in most regions. Piglet and sow prices declined. The overall supply was relatively sufficient, and the spot price was under downward pressure [32][33]. - **Trading Strategies**: A wait - and - see attitude for all trading methods [33]. Peanuts - **Market Conditions**: Peanut prices were slightly down, and some oil mills suspended procurement. Peanut inventory decreased, and peanut oil inventory increased. Affected by rainfall, the 01 contract was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term [34][35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term long - entry on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [36]. Eggs - **Market Conditions**: Egg prices were stable or slightly down. The inventory of laying hens was at a high level, and the demand was average. The near - month contract was expected to fluctuate weakly [38][39][40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points for the near - month contract, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [40]. Apples - **Market Conditions**: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and export and import volumes changed. Apple prices were stable or slightly up. The expected low high - quality fruit rate was expected to support the price [42][43][44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting the price to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [44]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Conditions**: ICE US cotton futures fell. New cotton in Xinjiang was in the harvest season, and the cotton yarn market was divided. The new cotton supply was expected to increase, and the demand was not strong [45][46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expecting a slightly weakening trend, trading at appropriate times, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [47]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Conditions**: The steel price was slightly under pressure, and the market was in a bottom - oscillating state. The output of some steel mills decreased, and the inventory increased during the holiday. The market was affected by macro - policies and international trade issues [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Maintaining a bottom - oscillating trend, long - entry for the spread between hot - rolled and threaded steel at low points, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [50]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coking coal prices were stable or slightly up, and the coke market was stable. The supply of coking coal in October was expected to be stable, and the demand was supported by high iron - water production. The market was in a balanced state [51][52]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points for coking coal, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The iron ore price fluctuated narrowly at night. The global iron ore shipment was at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand was weakening. The iron ore price was expected to be weak in the fourth quarter [54][55]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling in the medium - term, reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using circuit - breaker cumulative put options [56]. Ferroalloys - **Market Conditions**: The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese were stable or slightly down. The demand for ferroalloys was under pressure, but the cost provided support. The market was in a bottom - oscillating state [57][58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bottom - oscillating state, selling out - of - the - money put options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated greatly. Gold reached a new high and then corrected, while silver also had a large - amplitude fluctuation. The US dollar index fell, and the Fed was expected to cut interest rates [60][61]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points based on the 5 - day moving average, and buying deep - out - of - the - money call options for Shanghai gold and silver [62]. Copper - **Market Conditions**: Copper futures prices fell. The supply of copper mines was expected to decrease, and the inventory changes were different in different markets. The consumption was in a weak peak season [65]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long - entry at low points, maintaining cross - market positive spread arbitrage, and a wait - and - see attitude for options [66]. Alumina - **Market Conditions**: Alumina futures and spot prices fell. The supply was in an over - supply state, and some enterprises were in a loss state. The price was expected to be weak [67][69][71]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [74]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Conditions**: The price of electrolytic aluminum futures fell, and the spot price rose. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact on the aluminum market, and the medium - term price was expected to strengthen [73][76]. - **Trading Strategies**: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Conditions**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures fell, and the spot price was stable. The US tariff policy was expected to have limited impact, and the scrap aluminum price was relatively firm [77]. - **Trading Strategies**: Waiting and seeing in the short - term, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Conditions**: Zinc futures prices fell. The domestic supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The overseas market was strong. The price was expected to be volatile [81][82]. - **Trading Strategies**: Taking profit on short - positions at appropriate times, short - selling at high points, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [83][85]. Lead - **Market Conditions**: Lead futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the supply was expected to increase in the second half of October. The price was at risk of falling from a high level [86][87]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling at high points, and selling out - of - the - money call options, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [87][88]. Nickel - **Market Conditions**: LME nickel price fell, and the inventory increased. An accident in an Indonesian factory had no impact on production. The nickel price was under pressure [90][92]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not provided in the text. Stainless Steel - **Market Conditions**: The production of stainless steel was increasing, but the demand was weak, and the price was under pressure [94]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - selling, selling a 2511 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [95]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Conditions**: The production of industrial silicon was affected by factory shutdowns and restarts. The demand was strong in the short - term. The price was expected to fluctuate in the medium - term [99]. - **Trading Strategies**: Holding long - positions and taking profit at the upper limit of the range, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [99][100]. Polysilicon - **Market Conditions**: The production of polysilicon increased in October, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be affected by the cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [102]. - **Trading Strategies**: Holding long - positions, 2511 and 2512 contract reverse spread arbitrage, and adjusting option strategies [105]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Conditions**: The supply of lithium carbonate was affected by mine approvals, and the demand was supported by the production of Tesla and new energy vehicles. The price was expected to oscillate [106]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillating between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan, selling a 2601 contract strangle, and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [107]. Tin - **Market Conditions**: Tin futures prices fell. The supply and demand were both weak, and the inventory decrease provided some support. The market awaited the resumption of production in Myanmar [110]. - **Trading Strategies**: Not provided in the text.

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and interest changes of cotton and cotton yarn futures contracts are presented, including CF01, CF05, CF09, CY01, CY05, and CY09 [3]. - Spot prices of various cotton and cotton yarn products are provided, such as CCIndex3128B, Cot A, FC Index, etc., along with their price changes [3]. - Price differences between different contracts (inter - period spreads), between cotton and cotton yarn (inter - variety spreads), and between domestic and foreign markets are shown [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' First Division in Alar has 2 million mu of cotton entering the picking and purchasing peak season, and a meeting was held to promote the orderly, fair, and efficient operation of seed - cotton purchasing [6]. - The pre - sale price of new cotton for the 2025/26 season is temporarily stable, with the pre - sale basis of machine - picked cotton in Aksu region around CF01 + 900 [6]. - In September 2025, the textile and clothing export volume was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was $221.686 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. Trading Logic - During the festival, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang's cotton output is high and ginneries' purchasing enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to purchase. As new cotton is abundantly listed, there may be selling hedging pressure on the futures market [7]. - The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and its boosting effect on the futures market is also limited [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will mostly be volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weak volatile trend [8]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - Affected by factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations, lower - than - expected new cotton output, and poor quality of some new cotton, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton has slowed down. Pure - cotton yarn prices remained stable overall, with some manufacturers' quotes still slightly decreasing, and the actual transaction center of gravity gradually declined [9]. - The demand peak season in the pure - cotton fabric market is not prosperous, with a weak trading atmosphere and prices being stable but slightly weak. Weaving mills' orders are mostly small and scattered, and they hope to receive spring - summer order sampling work in November [11]. Group 3: Options - Information on cotton options, including option contract names, underlying contract prices, closing prices, price change percentages, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, Theta, theoretical leverage, and actual leverage, is provided [13]. - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton is 8.4519, with a slight decrease compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 are 9.3%, 10.9%, and 13.9% respectively [13]. - The PCR of the main contract's open interest is 0.7661, and the PCR of the main contract's trading volume is 0.8549. The trading volumes of both call and put options have increased [14]. - Option strategy: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [15]. Group 4: Related Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton markets under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, and the price difference between cotton yarn and cotton contracts (CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01) [16][18][24].

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 10 月 15 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 下一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | 成 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.50 | 109.43 | 0.07 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 7.09 | 6.93 | 0.16 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report Core View - Oil prices are running weakly, macro - risks are not fully resolved, and the cost side lacks continuous support. In the fourth quarter, supply remains high in the short - term, demand weakens quarter - on - quarter, inventory accumulation pressure in the industry chain increases, and asphalt itself lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of large fluctuations in crude oil. The BU2511 contract should focus on the support around 3300 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, BU2511 (the main contract) dropped from 3290 to 3250, a decrease of 40 or 1.22%; BU2512 dropped from 3211 to 3184, a decrease of 27 or 0.84%; BU2601 dropped from 3167 to 3154, a decrease of 13 or 0.41%; SC2510 dropped from 448.6 to 443.7, a decrease of 4.9 or 1.09%; Brent first - line dropped from 62.94 to 62.23, a decrease of 0.7 or 1.13%. The main contract position decreased from 9.9 to 8.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.6 or 16.47%; the main contract trading volume increased from 10.1 to 11.3 million lots, an increase of 1.2 or 12.00%; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 43900 to 42370 tons, a decrease of 1530 or 3.49% [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: BU12 - 01 decreased from 44.00 to 30.00, a decrease of 14.00 or 31.82%; BU11 - 12 decreased from 79.00 to 66.00, a decrease of 13.00 or 16.46%; the Shandong - main contract basis increased from 379.00 to 396.00, an increase of 17.00 or 4.49%; the East China - main contract basis increased from 189.00 to 216.00, an increase of 27.00 or 14.29%; the South China - main contract basis increased from 239.00 to 266.00, an increase of 27.00 or 11.30% [2]. - **Industrial Chain Spot Prices**: The Shandong market price decreased from 3460 to 3450, a decrease of 10.00 or 0.29%; the East China market price remained at 3400, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%; the South China market price remained at 3450, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%. Shandong gasoline decreased from 7387 to 7357, a decrease of 30.00 or 0.41%; Shandong diesel decreased from 6353 to 6331, a decrease of 22.00 or 0.35%; Shandong petroleum coke decreased from 2920 to 2890, a decrease of 30.00 or 1.03%; the diluted asphalt discount remained at - 7.8, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%; the central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased from 7.1021 to 7.0995, a decrease of 0.00 or 0.04% [2]. - **Spread and Profit**: The asphalt refinery profit increased from 152.63 to 172.80, an increase of 20.16 or 13.21%; the refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 475.89 to 489.14, an increase of 13.25 or 2.79%; BU - SC cracking increased from - 433.19 to - 421.31, an increase of 11.88 or 2.74%; gasoline spot - Brent increased from 1073.62 to 1086.11, an increase of 12.48 or 1.16%; diesel spot - Brent increased from 848.58 to 868.14, an increase of 19.56 or 2.31% [2]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: On October 15, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day. Rainy weather in North China and parts of Shandong suppressed terminal demand, and the cost side lacked support recently, so the market wait - and - see sentiment was strong. Traders in North China and Shandong continued to lower the shipping price, driving the market average price down. In the East China Zhenjiang area, there were many low - priced resources, which affected the shipments of refineries and traders. In the South China market, the production and sales of the main refineries were relatively stable, and the asphalt price remained stable [5]. - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price decreased by 5 to 3470 - 3650 yuan/ton. Affected by rainy weather, terminal demand was weak, and the cost side lacked support. The market was pessimistic, and traders continued to lower the shipping price, driving the mainstream transaction center down. In the future, both supply and demand are weak, and the asphalt price may show a weak trend in the short term [5]. - **Yangtze River Delta Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3540 - 3550 yuan/ton. Market demand was weak, traders' shipments were small, and both the cost side and the asphalt futures market were weak. The asphalt quotation in Zhenjiang area was about 3370 yuan/ton, and the low - priced resources were 11 contracts + 50 yuan/ton. The market preferred low - priced transactions, and the asphalt price in the region may show a weak trend in the short term [5]. - **South China Market**: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3400 - 3530 yuan/ton. Crude oil and futures prices continued to fall, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The mainstream transaction price of social warehouses in Foshan area remained at about 3340 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was average. In the future, as the weather improves, local market demand will be slowly released, and some main refineries may have maintenance plans, so the spot resources are expected to decrease. However, some refineries have released low - price contracts, and the cost side support is weak. Most downstream users' bearish sentiment remains unchanged, and the local asphalt price will be weakly stable in the short term [6]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline price, and Shandong refinery diesel price, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][15]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is affected by factors such as the recovery of Russian refineries and the increase in Middle - East exports due to the decline in power - generation demand. The demand side shows that summer power - generation demand has completely subsided, and feedstock demand support is not obvious under the background of high - sulfur cracking decline and low - cost tax reform. High - sulfur near - end inventory at a high level still suppresses market prices. Attention should be paid to the generation of new warehouse receipts and the subsequent inventory digestion rhythm for high - sulfur near - month contracts. [7] - The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term disturbances. The operation of the Nigerian RFCC device is unstable, and it is reported to have returned in the past two weeks. There is an expected increase in the logistics redirection of low - sulfur heavy raw materials to the Pan - Singapore area due to the conflict between South Sudan and the UAE, but there have been no new tenders since September. The Al - Zour refinery maintains high - level low - sulfur shipments but is affected by the UAE diversion recently. The return of Malaysian refineries increases some low - sulfur straight - run supply. In the Chinese market, the third batch of low - sulfur quotas has been issued, with Sinopec and PetroChina expected to have sufficient quotas in the fourth quarter without increasing production, while CNOOC expects a tight quota. Ship - fuel demand is stable without specific drivers. [7][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Relevant Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: On October 15, 2025, the price of FU main contract was 2683, down 17 from the previous day; the position was 258,000 lots, up 0.5 lots. The price of LU main contract was 3155, down 48 from the previous day; the position was 66,000 lots, up 0.1 lots. [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: FU warehouse receipts were 45,800 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LU warehouse receipts were 13,080 tons, unchanged from the previous day. [3] - **Spreads**: FU1 - 5 was 30, unchanged; LU12 - 1 was - 4, down 11; LU - FU main contract spread was 472, down 31; FU01 - outer - market 12 was 9.8, up 0.1; LU12 - outer - market 11 was 9.0, down 0.7. [3] Part 2: Market Judgement - **Important Information**: Russian seaborne crude oil shipments climbed to a 28 - month high in the past four weeks, mainly due to increased production and Ukrainian attacks on refineries, forcing the redirection of crude oil supply to export terminals. [6] - **Market Analysis**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are affected by multiple factors as described in the core viewpoints. [7][9] Part 3: Relevant Attachments - The report includes figures such as Singapore high - sulfur and low - sulfur spot premiums, high - and low - sulfur spreads, and fuel - oil cracking spreads, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters. [10]