Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to the approaching "Two Sessions" and the lack of clear fiscal strength and direction, the long - end sentiment of the bond market is expected to be cautious. Without strong positive factors, the bond market may fluctuate, and institutional behavior at the end of the month may amplify market volatility. - In the medium - term, the report maintains an optimistic view on the bond market, considering that the fiscal policy may not exceed market expectations, the probability of monetary policy tightening due to structural price repair is low, and external uncertainties remain. - The current yield curve has a relatively flat short - to - medium - term slope and a steeper long - term slope. Future curve trading may rely on event - driven factors such as interest rate cuts or unexpected real - estate policies [3][87]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Logic - **Fundamentals and "Two Sessions"**: The macro - economic data for January and February will be released in March. High - frequency data shows that during the Spring Festival, tourism consumption increased but per - capita spending decreased, the movie "Spring Festival season" was cold, real - estate sales were divided (new home sales declined while some core city second - hand home sales improved), and external demand is expected to support the total demand. After the "Two Sessions", large - scale economic stimulus is less likely, and the deficit rate is expected to be around 4.0% (narrow) and 8.5% (broad). External uncertainties still exist [7][8][14][16]. - **Price Indicators**: In January, CPI and core CPI showed a mixed trend. CPI and core CPI year - on - year growth rates decreased, but core CPI month - on - month growth continued to recover. Among the eight major categories of prices, other supplies and services and household items and services had relatively large price increases. PPI also showed an upward trend, mainly driven by upstream raw material prices, but different industries had significant differences. In the future, price indicators are expected to continue to recover moderately, but the impact on the bond market may be limited [17][21][26]. - **Monetary Supply and Credit Demand**: In January, the money supply was better than expected, with M1 and M2 year - on - year growth rates increasing. New social financing also increased year - on - year. However, there were differences between different sectors. The household sector's demand for loans was weak, and the corporate sector's credit expansion slowed down. Overall, the money supply was stronger than the financing demand, which is favorable for the bond market, but the probability of monetary policy intensification is not high [36][41]. - **Market Liquidity**: In February, the market liquidity was balanced and loose. The central bank maintained a supportive stance, with a large net investment in long - term funds. The stable liquidity is beneficial to the bond market, but without an increase in the expectation of policy rate cuts, the downward space for market capital prices is limited. The central bank's future regular treasury bond trading operations may affect the market's demand for long - term bonds [44][51][60]. - **Contract Transfer**: The transfer of the main futures contracts was slow. The low IRR of the current - quarter contracts in mid - to - early February and the expected seasonal increase in capital prices during the Spring Festival may be the reasons. As the delivery month approached, the concentrated transfer of long - positions around the Spring Festival led to a rapid decline in the inter - period spread, which then recovered [61]. Investment Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: During the post - holiday bond market adjustment, investors can consider buying T - contract long positions at low prices. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for new event - driven factors [5][87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In February 2026, the A-share market continued to oscillate upward with differentiated index performance. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were strong, while the SSE 50 index was weak. The price increase theme became an important main line in the A-share market, and the stock index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in March [3][4][9]. - The price increase theme is driven by improved product supply - demand relations and abundant social funds. The abundant social funds are an important driving force for the overall price increase, and "price increase" may be an important main line in the stock market this year [28][30][34]. - The two sessions in 2026 are expected to have a positive impact on the A-share market. Historically, the stock index performance around the two sessions has been relatively positive, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have performed better [35]. Summary by Directory 1. First Part: Preface Summary 1.1 Market Review - In February, the A-share market continued to oscillate upward with differentiated index performance. The SSE 50 index was affected by the large - financial sector and performed poorly around the Spring Festival, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices were strong due to the active performance of small - and medium - cap stocks. The futures - spot basis of stock index futures widened significantly compared with the previous month, and the trading volume and open interest decreased significantly around the Spring Festival [3]. 1.2 Market Outlook - The price increase theme has become an important main line in the A-share market. Due to improved product supply - demand relations and abundant social funds, it is expected to continue to have an important impact on the market. Historically, the stock index performance around the two sessions has been relatively positive, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have performed better. Therefore, the stock index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in March [4]. 1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Oscillate upward. - Arbitrage: Long IM/IC2609 contracts + Short ETFs. - Options: Bull spread strategy [5]. 2. Second Part: January Market Review 2.1 Stock Market - Index Performance Differentiated - In February, the A-share market continued to oscillate upward. The SSE 50 index closed with a negative monthly line, the CSI 300 index rose steadily, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices accelerated their rise after the Spring Festival. As of February 26, the monthly increase of the CSI 300 index was 0.44%, the SSE 50 index fell 1.02%, the CSI 500 index rose 2.23%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 2.86%. Non - metallic materials, machinery and equipment, and national defense and military industry sectors led the gains, while insurance, media and Internet, social services, and agricultural products sectors led the decline [9][12]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures - Widened Basis and Shrinking Trading Volume - In February, the basis of stock index futures widened significantly compared with the previous month. The average monthly basis of the IF current - month contract was a 4 - point discount, the IH current - month contract had an average monthly premium of 0.99 points, the IC current - month contract had an average monthly discount of 2.67 points, and the IM current - month contract had an average monthly discount of 2.9 points. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased overall. The average daily trading volume of IM, IC, IF, and IH decreased by 18.3%, 17.5%, 27.5%, and 19% respectively compared with the previous month; the average daily open interest of IM, IC, and IF decreased by 0.6%, 5.8%, and 4.6% respectively, while the average daily open interest of IH increased by 5.6%. The increase in the basis made the cost of short - position roll - over of stock index futures increase again. The net short - position of each variety fluctuated with the market, and the net short - position of the top five and top ten seats of each variety increased on average compared with the previous month, with IH having a significant increase in positions [15][19][24]. 3. Third Part: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy 3.1 The Price Increase Theme is Driven by Abundant Funds - Recently, the price increase theme has become an important main line in the A-share market, spreading across various industries. The price increase is not only a reflection of the improvement in product prosperity and industry performance but also the result of abundant funds and speculation. Social funds are abundant, with the M1 year - on - year growth rate in January 2026 being 4.9% (previous value 3.8%), the M2 year - on - year growth rate being 9.0% (previous value 8.5%), and the new social financing being 7.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 165.4 billion yuan. The narrowing of the M2 - M1 gap may indicate abundant funds again. The appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar is beneficial to the stock market, and if the upward trend of the RMB exchange rate continues, it may bring liquidity to the stock and commodity markets. "Price increase" may be an important main line in the stock market this year [28][30][34]. 3.2 Policy Expectations are High - The Two Sessions in 2026 are expected to have an impact on the A-share market. Historically, the market performance around the Two Sessions has been relatively positive, with more disturbances during the meetings and increased market volatility. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices have a higher probability of rising and larger increases. Benefiting from positive policy expectations, abundant liquidity, the AI technological revolution, and energy demand, the "steady and progressive" trend of the stock index is expected to continue. The sectors benefiting from the policy expectations of the Two Sessions are mainly in scientific and technological innovation and consumption promotion, and the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 indices with higher technological content will benefit more [35][36]. 3.3 Future Strategy - The price increase theme will continue to have an important impact on the market. The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in March, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices will perform better [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The certainty of the US economy has declined, and the market should follow the domestic economic expectations. The US economic resilience is facing challenges due to factors such as the uncertainty of monetary policy, changes in tariff policies, and persistent dollar liquidity tightness. In contrast, the domestic economy shows signs of an unexpected recovery, and the upcoming "Two Sessions" is expected to have a positive impact on the domestic asset prices [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Economic Situation - **Short - term Resilience with Increased Uncertainty**: Although the seasonally adjusted US consumption growth rate has declined, leading indicators suggest that consumption growth still has support. The relatively healthy labor market also indicates short - term economic resilience. However, factors such as the uncertainty of monetary policy, changes in tariff policies, and persistent dollar liquidity tightness have increased the uncertainty of the US economy [7][10][23]. - **Monetary Policy Uncertainty**: The Fed's 1 - month interest - rate meeting did not cut interest rates as expected. The new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's previous "hawkish" attitude has cast a shadow on the market. Although the report adheres to the view that the US monetary policy will be loosened, the process may be more tortuous and require greater driving forces. There is a risk that the previous preventive interest - rate cuts in the US may turn into rescue - style cuts, which will reduce the certainty of the economy and asset prices [10][14][15]. - **Tariff Policy Changes**: The US Supreme Court's ruling that Trump's IEEPA tariff is unconstitutional has increased the uncertainty of US tariff policies. Trump's new tariff measures are only short - term transitions, and the mid - term may shift to a tariff framework based on 338, 301, or 232. This change has increased the medium - and long - term risks of the US economy and may also affect Sino - US relations [17][18]. - **Dollar Liquidity Tightness**: The Fed's attempt to ease the dollar liquidity tightness through balance - sheet expansion has had limited effects. The persistent liquidity tightness has increased the risk of the US economy [23]. 3.2 Domestic Economic Situation - **Signs of Unexpected Recovery**: In February, which is a window period for Chinese economic data, the 2026 Spring Festival consumption was unexpectedly hot. High - frequency data shows that the subway passenger volume and domestic flight volume were significantly better than in previous years. However, the per - capita daily travel expenditure has not returned to the pre - 2020 level, indicating that economic recovery and consumption expansion require policy support [27][29]. 3.3 2026 National "Two Sessions" Preview - **Key Focus Areas**: The "Two Sessions" is expected to focus on four key areas: the formulation and implementation of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the setting of economic goals and policy guarantees, policies related to the cultivation and development of new - quality productivity, and industrial policies and "anti - involution" [35]. - **Impact on the Market**: As long as the current policy direction and economic trend continue, the "Two Sessions" will support domestic asset prices. The market has low expectations for the "Two Sessions", and as long as there are no major changes, the market will still have a structural upward trend [40]. 3.4 Outlook for Chinese Asset Trends - **Stock Market**: Before the "Two Sessions" in early March, the market will enter a stable period, and the "Two Sessions" will maintain policy stability. As long as there are no major changes, the market will have a structural upward trend [41]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The "re - allocation" of maturing deposits is beneficial to the short - term bond market. In the medium term, either domestic prices will rise or the economy will stabilize, so treasury bonds may fluctuate in the long run [41]. - **Commodities**: In the short term, it is the off - season for demand, and seasonality is the dominant factor. Trading opportunities need to be found based on the certainty of domestic economic expectations, but this passive choice needs to be treated with caution. In the medium term, the macro and fundamental changes have been reflected in commodity prices to a certain extent, and the strong may remain strong. In the long term, the differentiation of commodity prices will improve, and the prices of low - valued commodities may return [41]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The Renminbi will continue to appreciate, but the appreciation trend will be more volatile due to the slowdown of the decline in the US dollar index and the expected impact on imports and exports. In the short term, it has support around 6.8 [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to increase, with production expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, maintaining a tight balance overall [5]. - The high inventory situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. With the spot price below 8,200, non-self-supplied power enterprises in the northwest have started to lose cash, and they have a strong willingness to support prices. It is difficult for the futures price to fall below 8,000 under a high basis [6]. - Assuming no significant changes in the cost side, the reference range for the industrial silicon futures price in March is (8,000, 9,000). If the prices of clean coal and silicon coal decline, the futures price may further drop to around 7,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Directory Part One: Preface Summary Supply and Demand Outlook - There are rumors that Hesheng Silicon Industry may resume production of its silicone capacity, and the silicone operating rate is likely to increase in March. Tongwei Co., Ltd. will not resume production of polysilicon in March, while GCL Technology's monthly output will increase to 18,000 tons. Gonsen's resumption of production is postponed, Qiya starts feeding in early March, and Xinte Energy's Monte base will resume production in March. It is expected that the polysilicon output will increase to around 84,000 tons in March [5]. - In the aluminum alloy sector, terminal demand is good. As March is a traditional peak season and post - Spring Festival resumption of work and production, the demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloys will increase [5]. - At the current industrial silicon price, there will be no significant changes in the operating rates of industrial silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Yunnan, Sichuan, etc. There are rumors that leading large enterprises will resume production of 15 units in March, but this information is unconfirmed [5]. Trading Logic - Although there are variables in the supply and demand of industrial silicon in March, whether large enterprises resume production or not has little impact on the supply - demand balance. The high - inventory situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged [6]. - When the spot price is below 8,200, non - self - supplied power enterprises in the northwest have started to lose cash. Coupled with the low - inventory state, these enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. It is difficult for the futures price to fall below 8,000 under a high basis [6]. - Assuming no significant changes in the cost side, the reference range for the industrial silicon futures price in March is (8,000, 9,000). If the prices of clean coal and silicon coal decline, the futures price may further drop to around 7,500 yuan/ton [6]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: Range operation, with the price reference range (8,000, 9,000), pay attention to changes in coal costs [8]. - Arbitrage: None for now [8]. - Options: None for now [8]. Part Two: Fundamental Situation Market Review - The document provides the price trends of the industrial silicon 2605 contract and the spot price changes of industrial silicon and its downstream products from February 13th to February 27th, 2026, as well as the changes in registered warehouse receipts [10][12]. Demand: The demand for industrial silicon will increase month - on - month in March - There is a possibility of an increase in DMC production in March [16]. - The polysilicon output will increase in March. It is expected to reach around 84,000 tons, with GCL Technology's monthly output increasing to 18,000 tons [5][19]. - The demand for industrial silicon from aluminum alloys and exports will increase month - on - month in March [23]. Supply: The production of industrial silicon in March mainly depends on the resumption of production by leading large enterprises - There are rumors that leading large enterprises will resume production of 15 units in March, but this information is unconfirmed. At the current price, there will be no significant changes in the operating rates of industrial silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Yunnan, Sichuan, etc [5]. Cost and Inventory: Pay attention to coal costs, and inventory is not significantly bearish - The cost mainly depends on coal prices. If the prices of clean coal and silicon coal decline, the industrial silicon futures price may further drop [6]. - The inventory situation is not significantly bearish, but the high - inventory situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged [6]. Part Three: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Supply and demand outlook: In March, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to increase, with production expected to increase by about 30,000 tons, maintaining a tight balance overall [5]. - Trading logic: Although there are variables in the supply and demand of industrial silicon in March, whether large enterprises resume production or not has little impact on the supply - demand balance. The high - inventory situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. It is difficult for the futures price to fall below 8,000 under a high basis. Assuming no significant changes in the cost side, the reference range for the industrial silicon futures price in March is (8,000, 9,000). If the prices of clean coal and silicon coal decline, the futures price may further drop to around 7,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Operating strategy: Unilateral: Range operation, with the price reference range (8,000, 9,000); Options: None for now [8][49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cost support of the polyester industry chain is strengthening, and the pattern is expected to improve [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PX: High Domestic and Overseas Operation Rates, Maintenance Season Approaching - From 2023 - 2025, there was no new PX capacity put into production for three consecutive years. In 2026, new PX capacity is limited, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. If the 300 - million - ton PX plant of Yulong Petrochemical is successfully launched in the second half of the year, PX capacity will reach 48.94 million tons [11] - PX industry profits have led to high domestic and overseas operation rates. In the past two months, the PX - MX spread has been maintained at $160 - 190 per ton, performing better than last year. As of February 26, the domestic PX plant operation rate was 92.4%, and the Asian PX operation rate was 84.9%, higher than the same period last year [11] - Entering March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, PX plant maintenance at home and abroad will gradually increase, and the PX supply pressure is expected to ease. The second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern for PX [11] 3.2 TA: Inflection Point of the Capacity Cycle, Pattern Expected to Improve - With the end of the industry's capacity expansion, in 2025, a total of 8.7 million tons of new PTA capacity was added. As of now, the PTA capacity base in mainland China has been adjusted to 92.09 million tons. In 2026, there will be a vacuum period for PTA production. The growth rate of downstream polyester capacity continues to slow down, with an expected new capacity of 3.76 million tons in 2026 and a capacity growth rate of 4.17% [23] - After two rounds of surges, the PTA processing margin has been repaired, with the forward contract at 400 - 500 yuan per ton. As of February 26, the PTA operation rate has rebounded to 76.6%, the same as last month. In March - May, PTA plant maintenance will be concentrated. With the restart of several plants, the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [27][29] - After the Spring Festival, PTA dock arrivals will increase significantly, and inventory has increased significantly. As of the 25th, the PTA social inventory was 2.56 million tons, a significant increase compared to before the festival. The TA basis is weak [29] 3.3 Ethylene Glycol: Continuous Inventory Accumulation, Expected Load Reduction in March - As of the 24th, the MEG port inventory in some major ports in East China was about 982,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,000 tons. The port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the coal port inventory is piling up, with the coal price at the origin weakening. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol are both weak [36] - In March, some ethylene glycol plants will undergo maintenance. Although the ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, the ethylene glycol production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [37] 3.4 Polyester Demand: Moderate Recovery, Expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" Remain - In February, approaching the Spring Festival, the polyester load decreased. After the festival, the market remains optimistic about the traditional peak season. The polyester bottle - chip processing margin has widened, the short - fiber operation rate remains high, and the long - fiber processing margin has changed little [43] - Some short - fiber plants plan to start maintenance from late January to early February, and most large - scale short - fiber plants will start operation at the end of February. Entering March, the short - fiber load will increase rapidly. If the US tariffs are reduced, it will be good for the textile and clothing industries in Asian countries [43][46] - Some bottle - chip plants have carried out maintenance, and the market spot supply has decreased. In the second and third quarters, as the downstream enters the procurement and consumption peak season, the social inventory is expected to decline significantly [46] 3.5 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In March, with the start of the traditional maintenance season, the PX supply pressure is expected to ease, and the second quarter will see a de - stocking pattern. PTA inventory has increased significantly after the festival, and the basis is weak. March - May will see concentrated PTA plant maintenance, and the de - stocking volume in March may be less than that of last year [59] - The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure will improve month - on - month, but the production capacity will expand significantly in 2026, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. The ethylene glycol load is expected to be reduced in March [60] - Strategy recommendations: For single - side trading, go long on PX and TA on dips; ethylene glycol will fluctuate. For arbitrage, go long on PX and TA and short ethylene glycol, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity for ethylene glycol and shrink the TA processing margin on rallies. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][61]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the double - coking (coking coal and coke) market, stating that the contradictions are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances in the international coal market [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price Charts**: There are multiple price charts for coking coal and coke, including the main contract trends of coking coal and coke, price indices of coking coal and coke, prices of different types of coking coal (such as medium - sulfur main coking coal, Mongolian 5 coking coal), and prices of coke (such as coke price index, quasi - first - grade coke ex - factory price, coke export FOB price) [9][11][28] - **Production Charts**: Charts show the production of national and Shanxi's raw coal, national and Shanxi's coking clean coal, and the capacity utilization rate and raw coal inventory of coking coal mines [38][41][42] - **Import Charts**: There are charts about the customs clearance of imported Mongolian coal at different ports (Ganqimaodu, Ceke, Mandula) and the total customs clearance of three ports [50][52][54] - **Export Charts**: Charts display the export volume of coke from China to the world, Indonesia, India, and Malaysia [73][76] - **Capacity Utilization and Production Charts**: There are charts of the capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and steel - mill coking plants, as well as the capacity utilization rate, daily output of iron water, and profitability rate of steel mills [79][84][88] - **Inventory Charts**: There are charts of the inventory of coking coal in mines, washing plants, Mongolian coal at ports, independent coking plants, and the total coking coal inventory, as well as the inventory of coke in coking enterprises, steel mills, ports, and the total coke inventory [96][105][106] 3.2 Indonesia Coal Data - **Production Quota Approval**: The preliminary RKAB approval results show that for different numbers of companies, the submitted production and approved production vary. For example, 7 companies submitted 2.22 billion tons of production, and all 2.22 billion tons were approved; 31 companies submitted 2.55 billion tons, and 1.19 billion tons were approved [64] - **2025 Production and Export**: In 2025, Indonesia's coal production was 7.90 billion tons, the export volume was 5.24 billion tons, accounting for 66.3% of the production, and the export volume to China was 2.11 billion tons, accounting for 40.3% of the total export volume [68] - **Export Change Calculation**: Under different scenarios (coal quota strictly implemented at 6 billion tons and neutral estimated production at 6.9 billion tons), the reduction in production, export volume, and export volume to China are calculated. For example, when the coal quota is strictly implemented at 6 billion tons and the reduction is mainly in exports, the production is reduced by 1.90 billion tons, the export volume is reduced by 1.90 billion tons, and the export volume to China is reduced by 0.77 billion tons [70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The report provides daily market observations and analysis of L (plastic) and PP (polypropylene), including market prices, trading volume, and important news. It also presents trading strategies based on logical analysis [1][2][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **February 24**: L主力2605合约报收6644点，下跌-90点或-1.34%，LLDPE市场价格横盘整理；PP主力2605合约报收6568点，下跌-80点或-1.20%，国内PP市场价格变动不大 [12] - **February 25**: L主力2605合约报收6826点，上涨+6点或+0.09%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨；PP主力2605合约报收6747点，上涨+1点或+0.01%，市场整体交投一般 [9] - **February 26**: L主力2605合约报收6758点，下跌-19点或-0.28%，LLDPE市场价格部分上涨；PP主力2605合约报收6734点，上涨+14点或+0.21%，国内PP市场部分仍有上涨 [5] - **February 27**: L主力2605合约报收6604点，下跌-64点或-0.96%，LLDPE市场价格小幅下跌；PP主力2605合约报收6605点，下跌-70点或-1.05%，国内PP市场部分弱调 [1] Important News - On February 24, the EU's Waste Technical Adaptation Committee approved a draft implementation act regarding the accounting rules for recycled PET in plastic beverage bottles [12] - On February 25, in 2025, the petrochemical industry achieved stable progress in economic operations, with stable production of major energy and chemicals [9] - On February 26, the Yanchang Petroleum Yan'an 10 million tons/year refining and chemical integration transformation and upgrading project was reported to the State Council for approval [5] - On February 27, global refined oil demand will enter the end of growth in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and China's refining and refined oil industry will enter the "acceleration period of transformation" [1] Logical Analysis - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to -7.2 points, slightly bearish for commodities. In December 2025, the total import and export volume of domestic raw salt was reported at $49 million, a year-on-year decrease of -46.0%, with the decline expanding for 9 consecutive months, bearish for the chemical sector [2][6] - In January, the monthly maintenance loss of LLDPE increased to 134,000 tons, and the monthly maintenance loss of PP increased to 822,000 tons for 2 consecutive months, with a ratio of 0.163, indicating L is relatively strong [10] - As of the pre - holiday period, the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE L contract remained at 9,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of +43.2%; the registered warehouse receipts of the DCE PP contract increased by +6.6% to 18,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of +94.2% [13] Trading Strategies - **February 24**: L主力2605合约观望，关注6600点前期低位处的支撑；PP主力2605合约少量试空，宜在6620点近日低位处设置止损 [13] - **February 25**: L主力2605合约择机试多，宜在6700点近日低位处设置止损；PP主力2605合约观望，关注6770点近日高位处的压力 [10] - **February 26 and 27**: L主力2605合约观望；PP主力2605合约空单持有，止损宜下移至6700点近日低位处 [2][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling soda ash. In the medium - to - long term, the price of soda ash may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. For glass, due to the weak fundamentals, it is advisable to short on rallies or sell call options monthly. However, if the macro - sentiment is good, the price may remain stable. It is also recommended to go long on soda ash and short on glass for spread trading [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Preface - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors experienced a rapid decline and slow recovery, releasing market risks and repairing the mis - priced valuations. The soda ash, glass, and black sectors were mainly in a downward trend before the Spring Festival and had a strong bullish sentiment after the festival. The market anticipates a general rise in commodity prices in spring, mainly due to the macro - sentiment repair brought by the Two Sessions and inflation logic. The uncertainty of US tariffs still exists, but the tariff peak may have passed. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions, as environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution this year. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector [2]. Part Two: Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the futures price of the main soda ash contract declined. The SA05 contract fluctuated between 1146 - 1235 yuan/ton, with increased volatility and a lower trading range. The SA2605 - 09 spread was stable, ending at - 62 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of - 2 yuan/ton. The basis of SA05 was - 19 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 24 yuan/ton. The FG05 - SA05 spread first rose and then fell, ending at - 132 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 19 yuan/ton. Spot prices of soda ash manufacturers were stable to slightly weak [7]. 2. Risk Release in Non - ferrous Metals and Approaching Two Sessions - In February, the non - ferrous and precious metal sectors declined to release risks, with silver leading the decline with a monthly drop of 22%. The non - ferrous and precious metal sectors rebounded after hitting the bottom. By the end of the month, the non - ferrous sector had a decline of 7.8%, and the precious metal sector had a decline of 18.4%. The market risk was quickly released, and the mis - priced valuations were repaired. The Two Sessions in March will focus on new - quality productivity, stable growth, expanding domestic demand, industrial upgrading, security development, and people's livelihood security. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions, and environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market, but it has little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for 249 photovoltaic and chemical products will be cancelled. In the United States, the mid - term elections will be held in November 2026, and Trump's overall support rate has dropped to about 38% [10][11]. 3. Soda Ash Production at a Historical High and Gradually Accumulating Inventory Pressure - In February, the new production capacity of soda ash was gradually increased, with a monthly output of about 3.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. Some soda ash enterprises had maintenance or shutdowns, while some increased production. Overall, there were few maintenance activities, and the release of new production capacity led to an increase in comprehensive supply. In March, Zhongyan Kunshan has a maintenance plan, and other enterprises have no clear maintenance plans yet. The concentrated increase in new production capacity will gradually put pressure on the soda ash supply. Before discussing the elimination of high - cost production capacity, more attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the operating rate of soda ash enterprises, which is the core observation indicator for the marginal change in the supply - demand relationship [15]. 4. Resilient Demand for Light and Heavy Soda Ash and Lower - than - Expected Inventory Accumulation - During the Spring Festival, the inventory of soda ash increased by 306,400 tons, a rise of 19.29%. By the end of the month, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8944 million tons. The inventory accumulation rate during the Spring Festival was lower than market expectations, indicating resilient demand. In March, with the warming of the macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling. However, in the medium - to - long term, the price may rise first and then fall, and the monthly strategy suggests a bullish view. In February, the average weekly apparent demand for soda ash was about 669,000 tons, equivalent to an average daily apparent demand of about 96,000 tons, a 7.7% decrease compared to the previous month. Among them, the average weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 362,000 tons, a decrease of about 41,000 tons compared to the previous month. The apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,000 tons, a decrease of about 19,000 tons compared to the previous month [20]. 5. Pressure on Cost Transmission in Photovoltaic Glass and Increasing Downward Pressure on Post - Festival Demand - As of the end of February, the daily melting capacity of photovoltaic glass was 88,560 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the beginning of the month. It is expected that the global production of downstream components in March will be about 36GW, and the domestic production will be about 28GW. The cancellation of the 9% VAT export tax rebate for core photovoltaic products such as silicon wafers and components from April 1, 2026, led to increased procurement of photovoltaic glass by downstream component enterprises in advance. However, after the industry dividend fades in late March, it is still uncertain whether domestic demand in April can support the high - production of upstream enterprises. On the supply side, most kilns are operating normally, but enterprises are in a state of continuous loss. On the demand side, although supported by export orders, the production of components in February was weak, and the supply - demand gap in the industry remained high. After the Spring Festival, the inventory pressure increased rapidly [25][26][27]. 6. Resilient and Unexpected Demand for Light Soda Ash - As the price of soda ash decreases, its advantage as a basic chemical product becomes prominent. The decentralized downstream demand brings resilience. In 2025, the apparent demand for light soda ash increased unexpectedly, with the annual apparent demand reaching 16.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, far exceeding the previous growth rate range of - 2.6% to 4.5%. The quantifiable part is mainly due to the rapid growth of lithium carbonate production. In 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 944,000 tons, and the production of lithium carbonate required about 1.89 million tons of light soda ash. In February, the monthly apparent demand for light soda ash was about 1.284 million tons [30]. 7. Exit of US Soda Ash Plants and Expected Increase in China's Export Share - As the price of soda ash falls, the export window opens. In 2025, the average monthly export of soda ash was over 180,000 tons, and it is expected that the high - level export of soda ash will continue in 2026. The top five trading partners are Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea, and Malaysia, accounting for 37% of the total export volume. China's main export regions are Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei, and the export volume from Qinghai and Inner Mongolia has increased significantly. The exit of a US soda ash manufacturer will increase China's export share in the overseas market, especially in Southeast Asia [35]. 8. Weak Raw Material Prices and Slight Decline in Cost Range - In February, the price of sea salt was stable, the price of anthracite coal increased slightly, the price of thermal coal fluctuated upwards, and the cost increased. The price of by - product ammonium chloride increased significantly. As of February 26, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 90.15 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit (double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 1.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 95.38%. The price of thermal coal strengthened, the supply and demand of domestic thermal coal were both weak, and the market trading was light. The price of ammonium chloride increased, and the supply enterprises advanced production conservatively. The coke market price remained stable [40]. Part Three: Glass Fundamental Analysis 1. Market Review - In February, the main glass contract FG2605 weakened. The FG05 contract fluctuated between 1037 - 1120 yuan/ton, with a lower price range. The spread between the 05 and 09 contracts of glass narrowed, ending at - 97 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly change of + 11 yuan/ton. The basis between the main glass contract and the spot price in Shahe was - 40 yuan/ton, with a monthly change of + 10 yuan/ton. The spot prices of glass manufacturers in Hubei and Shahe remained basically unchanged [45]. 2. Slight Decrease in Float Glass Supply and Attention to Carbon Emission Statements in the Two Sessions - As of the end of the month, the daily melting capacity of float glass was 149,000 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons compared to the beginning of the month. There were 296 glass production lines in China (with a daily melting capacity of 199,500 tons) after excluding zombie production lines, of which 209 were in production and 87 were shut down for cold repair. Attention should be paid to the statements on carbon emissions in the Two Sessions. Environmental protection may be an important measure to promote anti - involution. It is expected that the glass supply in 2026 will decrease by 8.2% year - on - year to 52.93 million tons, equivalent to a daily melting capacity of 145,000 tons [47]. 3. Glass Demand May Be Weaker than Expected - In February, the average weekly apparent demand for glass was 750,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. After the Spring Festival, the domestic float glass market was quiet. Most downstream processing plants were shut down and planned to resume work after the Lantern Festival, resulting in weak overall demand. In terms of inventory structure, the glass inventory increased by 45% to 76 million heavy boxes in February, with significant inventory accumulation in North China and Central China. It is expected that the glass demand in 2026 will be 51.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. The continued decline of the real estate market has a significant negative impact on glass demand, while the demand for home - decoration glass remains stable, and the demand for automotive glass shows resilience [52]. 4. Further Relaxation of Purchase Restrictions in Shanghai and Urban Renewal as the Future Focus - The release of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Notice" triggered discussions on the bottom - out rebound of the real estate market. The further relaxation of purchase restrictions in Shanghai will have a siphon effect on second - and third - tier cities, increasing the differentiation and having little short - term impact on the overall demand recovery in the real estate sector. The recovery of the real estate market will be slow and complex, and the completion data in 2026 is expected to hover at a low level. The future recovery will depend more on the long - term improvement of the real estate market, such as the continuous recovery of the sales market and the improvement of the self - financing ability of real estate enterprises [56]. 5. Decrease in Soda Ash Price and Increase in Glass Cost - As of February 26, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 142.26 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 24.29 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 30.79 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 43.93 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - 2026 is a transition year from a bear market to a bull market, and lithium is the preferred choice for capital long - term allocation. The central price of lithium is expected to rise, but the price movement will be tortuous due to a slight oversupply expectation for the whole year. In the first quarter, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. Demand remains strong, while supply has limited short - term growth. From January to February, the domestic supply decreased more than the demand, leading to inventory reduction. In March, there is still a supply gap, and inventory reduction continues, supporting the high - level operation of lithium carbonate prices. If there are more risks from resource - rich countries, prices may break through the previous high; otherwise, the previous high will pose significant pressure. Conservatively, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in March, and in extreme cases, they may break through the previous high and reach 200,000 yuan. Due to overly optimistic capital sentiment, price volatility is large, making regulatory relaxation difficult. In a strong regulatory environment, low liquidity stimulates high volatility. Before regulatory relaxation, the market impact cost is high, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [80]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In February 2026, the lithium carbonate market first declined and then rose. After the Spring Festival, both spot and futures prices increased significantly. The core drivers were supply contraction due to smelter maintenance, the release of restocking demand from downstream low - inventory, and the sudden impact of Zimbabwe's policy of banning the export of unprocessed lithium ore at the end of the month, which sharply increased the market's expectation of tightened raw material supply. The main futures contract LC2605 rose from a minimum of 124,000 yuan to 187,700 yuan, approaching the previous high of 189,400 yuan. However, the index position remained around 700,000 lots, indicating high capital impact costs due to low liquidity in a strong regulatory environment [4][9]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In the first quarter, there is a supply - demand mismatch. Demand is strong, while supply growth is limited in the short term. In January and February, which are off - seasons, inventory should theoretically accumulate, but due to expected decreases in both production and imports, the domestic supply decreased more than the demand, resulting in inventory reduction. In March, the demand in the peak season is optimistic, and there is still a supply gap, so inventory reduction continues, supporting the high - level operation of lithium carbonate prices. If other resource - rich countries introduce more risks, prices may break through the previous high; otherwise, the previous high will be a significant pressure. Conservatively, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in March, and in extreme cases, they may break through the previous high and reach 200,000 yuan. Due to overly optimistic capital sentiment, price volatility is large, making regulatory relaxation difficult. In a strong regulatory environment, low liquidity stimulates high volatility, creating a dilemma. Before regulatory relaxation, the market impact cost is high, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [5][80]. 3.2 Second Part: Market Review - In February 2026, the lithium carbonate market first declined and then rose. After the Spring Festival, both spot and futures prices increased significantly. The core drivers were supply contraction due to smelter maintenance, the release of restocking demand from downstream low - inventory, and the sudden impact of Zimbabwe's policy of banning the export of unprocessed lithium ore at the end of the month, which sharply increased the market's expectation of tightened raw material supply. The main futures contract LC2605 rose from a minimum of 124,000 yuan to 187,700 yuan, approaching the previous high of 189,400 yuan. However, the index position remained around 700,000 lots, indicating high capital impact costs due to low liquidity in a strong regulatory environment. High prices stimulate the acceleration of mine restart and production increase, and the incremental supply is expected to be significant in the second half of the year. In February, domestic lithium carbonate production decreased due to smelter maintenance, and it is expected to recover in March. The production schedule data released by SMM shows a 31% month - on - month increase to 104,000 tons, a record high. From January to February, lithium salt exports from Chile and Argentina remained high, corresponding to a large amount of lithium salt imports in China in March. On the demand side, the energy storage market has experienced explosive growth in installed capacity after the implementation of the capacity - based electricity price policy, becoming the core incremental demand for lithium. Although the sales data of new energy vehicles are dismal, power batteries still show resilience, performing better than expected in the off - season. The latest production schedule data shows a 19% month - on - month increase in battery production in March, and the consumption of lithium carbonate is expected to reach 130,000 tons. In March, supply and demand are in a tight balance, and prices are expected to remain strong with a rising central price [9]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Situation 3.3.1 Battery Orders are Full, and the Inventory - to - Sales Ratio Remains Low - **New energy vehicle sales are poor, but power batteries still show resilience**: In January 2026, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. New energy vehicle exports reached 302,000 units, with a year - on - year increase of 100% and a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. In February, the domestic new energy vehicle market showed "seasonal decline but long - term resilience." Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, sales decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, but the penetration rate remained stable, and the industrial chain continued to operate at full speed. In terms of policies, in 2026, domestic new energy vehicle policies were adjusted, including the optimization of purchase tax exemptions, the implementation of trade - in subsidies, and the introduction of mandatory power consumption standards to eliminate high - energy - consumption models and promote industrial upgrading. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology specified a 48% new energy vehicle credit ratio in 2026 to guide the steady transformation of automakers. In addition, the domestic charging pile infrastructure continued to improve. As of January 2026, the national charging pile inventory exceeded 9 million, and the charging pile coverage rate in highway service areas reached 100%, which effectively alleviated consumers' charging anxiety and further supported the demand for new energy vehicles. Globally, in 2025, new energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.543 million units, and in January 2026, the growth rate of global electric vehicle sales hit a six - year low. The slowdown in the overseas market is mainly due to policy changes, industrial chain shortages, and cost pressures. The SMM statistics show that the production of power cells in January increased by 37% year - on - year to 119.79 GWh. The increase in the battery capacity per vehicle has offset the pressure of the decline in vehicle sales to some extent, and power batteries still show resilience [14][15][25]. - **Document No. 114 promotes the further growth of the energy storage market**: In January 2026, the newly installed capacity of domestic new - type energy storage projects totaled 3.78 GW/10.90 GWh, with year - on - year increases of 62%/106% and month - on - month decreases of 84%/86%. Independent energy storage accounted for 90%, and the new - type energy storage market started well. In January, the newly installed capacity of independent energy storage was 3.2 GW/9.6 GWh, with year - on - year increases of 249%/298% and month - on - month decreases of 82%/84%. The number of projects with a capacity of over 100 MW increased by 122% year - on - year, accounting for 85%, 29 percentage points higher than the previous year. The energy storage boom is due to policy support. In 2026, Document No. 114 of the National Development and Reform Commission included independent new - type energy storage in the power generation - side capacity - based electricity price mechanism for the first time, providing a capacity - based electricity price guarantee and an additional profit source in addition to peak - valley price arbitrage, which increases the internal rate of return (IRR). After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand for restocking was concentratedly released. The 314Ah battery has a delivery period of about 45 days, and the cell price has stabilized in the range of 0.38 - 0.40 yuan/Wh. The market share of small - and medium - sized energy storage cells such as 280Ah has been rapidly squeezed, and some manufacturers have even started to transform their 280Ah production lines into 314Ah production lines [30][32]. - **Battery production schedule follows the seasonality and has the potential for further growth**: During the Spring Festival, the energy storage production lines of leading battery manufacturers operated in three shifts, with a low holiday ratio, and quickly resumed work after the festival, still having restocking demand. SMM statistics show that in January 2026, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 396,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%; the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 49% year - on - year to 81,000 tons. The production schedule data from February to March shows high growth in the peak season. Currently, it is known that the production schedule of lithium iron phosphate in March has reached 430,000 tons. Among them, battery production decreased by 11% month - on - month in February and increased by 23% in March; ternary cathode materials decreased by 15% month - on - month in February and increased by 21% in March; lithium iron phosphate decreased by 11% month - on - month in February and increased by 15% in March; electrolyte decreased by 10% month - on - month in February and increased by 22% in March [38]. 3.3.2 High Prices Stimulate Supply Increase, but Resource - Rich Country Policies Add Disturbances - **Mines have rich profits, and ore prices follow the market**: High prices stimulate the acceleration of new production, restart, and production increase. It is expected that the supply elasticity will increase in the second half of the year to meet the raw material demand of battery manufacturers' capacity expansion. In the first half of the year, mines and smelters may hoard goods, leading to a temporary supply - demand mismatch in the second quarter. MIN increased its lithium ore shipment guidance for the 2026 fiscal year. IGO's Greenbushes lithium mine production in the fourth quarter was 350,000 tons, and sales were 328,000 tons. Liontown's production and sales in the fourth quarter exceeded market expectations, and it is studying an expansion project. PLS plans to restart the Ngungaju factory. NAL slightly lowered its 2026 production guidance. In addition, resource - rich country nationalism is on the rise. Zimbabwe has successively introduced policies to restrict lithium ore exports, which will have a certain impact on the market in the short term, but the impact on the annual trend is limited [47][48][54]. - **Smelter processing fees increase, and restart projects increase**: In January, there were many arrivals of lithium concentrate at ports, and smelters had sufficient lithium ore inventories. Due to maintenance, the demand decreased, and port inventories increased significantly. Lithium ore prices follow the market, and recently, the processing fees have increased slightly, and smelter profits have recovered. SMM expects that the production in February was less than 82,000 tons, and in March, smelters resumed production, with a production schedule of 104,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31%, exceeding the demand growth rate. Currently, lithium salt factories' inventories are at a low level, and the proportion of long - term contracts signed in 2026 is expected to be lower. Therefore, smelters need to replenish their own inventories first, which will take a long time. Even if monthly production increases, the products may not be circulated. It is expected that the supply elasticity will gradually increase as production capacity is released. In January 2026, Chile's lithium carbonate exports decreased by 11% year - on - year, while lithium sulfate exports increased by 1223% year - on - year. Argentina's lithium carbonate exports in January increased by 66% year - on - year, reflecting the growth of salt lake production [58][60][65]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - **Future Outlook**: 2026 is a transition year from a bear market to a bull market, and lithium is the preferred choice for capital long - term allocation. The central price of lithium is expected to rise, but the price movement will be tortuous due to a slight oversupply expectation for the whole year. In the first quarter, there is a supply - demand mismatch. Demand remains strong, while supply has limited short - term growth. From January to February, the domestic supply decreased more than the demand, leading to inventory reduction. In March, there is still a supply gap, and inventory reduction continues, supporting the high - level operation of lithium carbonate prices. If there are more risks from resource - rich countries, prices may break through the previous high; otherwise, the previous high will pose significant pressure. Conservatively, lithium prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level in March, and in extreme cases, they may break through the previous high and reach 200,000 yuan. Due to overly optimistic capital sentiment, price volatility is large, making regulatory relaxation difficult. In a strong regulatory environment, low liquidity stimulates high volatility. Before regulatory relaxation, the market impact cost is high, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and caution. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Unilateral trading**: Hold long positions established at low prices before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the pressure at the previous high [80]. - **Options trading**: Adopt a protective strategy [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The global natural rubber market in 2026 is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year, with production growth lower than expected due to various factors such as adverse weather and diseases [17] - The performance and trends of different types of rubber (RU, NR, BR) are affected by multiple factors including inventory changes, production rates, and international market data [3][8][13] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions 26 - 02 - 27 - RU主力05合约报收17080点，下跌45点或0.26%，销地WF报收17000 - 17100元/吨等 [1] - NR主力完成换月，05合约报收13865点，下跌45点或0.32%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.2点，下跌0.6点或0.30%等 [1] - BR主力完成换月，05合约报收12760点，下跌40点或1.31%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12600元/吨等 [2] 26 - 02 - 26 - RU主力05合约报收17315点，上涨75点或0.44%，销地WF报收17150 - 17250元/吨等 [6] - NR主力04合约报收14055点，上涨75点或0.54%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收201.7点，上涨1.1点或0.55%等 [6] - BR主力04合约报收12880点，下跌240点或1.83%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [7] 26 - 02 - 25 - RU主力05合约报收17180点，上涨150点或0.88%，销地WF报收16850 - 16950元/吨等 [11] - NR主力04合约报收13930点，上涨135点或0.98%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收200.4点，上涨2.1点或1.06%等 [11] - BR主力04合约报收13115点，下跌45点或0.34%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12800 - 12900元/吨等 [12] 26 - 02 - 24 - RU主力05合约报收16315点，下跌135点或0.82%，日胶主连报收354.5点，节中累计上涨7.4点或2.1%等 [16] - NR主力04合约报收1380点，下跌190点或1.42%，新加坡TF主力05合约报收193.8点，节中累计上涨2.0点或1.0%等 [16] - BR主力04合约报收12590点，下跌190点或1.49%，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收12500 - 12600元/吨等 [17] Important Information - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units. The share of pure - electric vehicles reached 19.3%, hybrid vehicles 38.6%, and the combined share of gasoline and diesel cars dropped to 30.1% [2] - In 2025, US tire imports totaled 28,615 million units, up 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 15%, while those from Thailand increased by 10% [7] - In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 21.4 million tons, down 10% year - on - year. Exports to China were 7.7 million tons, down 13% [12] - The ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber market in 2026 will be in short supply for the sixth consecutive year. Production in 2026 is expected to grow by 2.4% to 1,520 million tons [17] Logical Analysis - In February, the ZEW global auto industry index dropped to - 7.2 points, slightly negative for commodities; domestic dry - rubber inventory has been rising for 4 months to 129.7 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [3] - In January, the domestic auto inventory warning index reached 59.4% for 3 consecutive months, slightly positive for commodities; in December 2025, ANRPC member countries' total production decreased for 2 consecutive months to 1093 million tons, down 10.5% year - on - year [8] - As of the Spring Festival holiday, SHFE RU contract inventory was 12.46 million tons, higher than inventory futures (warehouse receipts) by 1.20 million tons; INE NR contract inventory decreased by 0.4% to 5.26 million tons, down 19.6% year - on - year [18] Trading Strategies 26 - 02 - 27 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract; wait and see for NR04 contract, pay attention to the support at 13720 points; try to go long on NR 05 contract with a stop - loss at 13780 points [3] - Arbitrage: Reduce and hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 130 points [3] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3] 26 - 02 - 26 - Unilateral: Hold long positions on RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 17000 points; try to go long on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13740 points [8] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 175 points with a stop - loss at + 130 points [8] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8] 26 - 02 - 25 - Unilateral: Try to go long on a small scale for RU 05 contract with a stop - loss at 16970 points; hold a wait - and - see attitude for NR 04 contract [13] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 155 points with a stop - loss at + 120 points [13] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] 26 - 02 - 24 - Unilateral: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for RU 05 contract, pay attention to the support at 16020 points; hold short positions on NR 04 contract with a stop - loss at 13310 points [18] - Arbitrage: Hold the position of RU2605 - RU2609 (1 - to - 1) at + 120 points with a stop - loss at + 90 points [18] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [18]