1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 25, ferroalloy futures prices showed mixed trends. The silicon ferro (SF) main contract closed at 5448, down 0.15%, with an increase of 9552 in open interest; the manganese silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5636, up 0.11%, with a decrease of 13172 in open interest [5]. - For silicon ferro, the spot price was generally stable on the 25th. The supply is decreasing slightly as alloy plants enter the maintenance stage. Demand is expected to decline as future hot metal production is likely to fall. Costs are generally stable with a slight upward trend. Overall, with both supply and demand decreasing and cost support, it is recommended to operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset [5]. - For manganese silicon, manganese ore spot prices were stable with a slight upward trend on the 25th, and manganese silicon spot prices were generally stable. Supply is also in a downward trend with some manufacturers in Ningxia adding maintenance and shutdowns. Demand is expected to decline. Costs are rising as port inventories of manganese ore are at a low level. It is expected to oscillate at the bottom under the game of weak supply - demand and cost support [5]. - Unilateral: With a weak supply - demand pattern, low valuation, and cost support, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Futures | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Weekly Change | Trading Volume | Daily Change | Open Interest | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SF Main Contract | 5448 | - 8 | - 74 | 316787 | - 44115 | 208059 | 9552 | | SM Main Contract | 5636 | 6 | - 44 | 120736 | - 81677 | 384812 | - 13172 | [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Silicon ferro: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Manganese silicon: Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were stable on the 25th, with weekly decreases ranging from 20 to 80 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Basis/Spread - Silicon ferro: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai and the main contract increased, and the spread between Jiangsu and Inner Mongolia increased by 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SF - SM spread decreased by 14 yuan/ton on the day and 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. - Manganese silicon: The basis between Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi and the main contract decreased, and the spread between Guangxi and Inner Mongolia increased by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Raw Materials - Manganese ore (Tianjin): The price of Gabon lump increased by 0.3 yuan/ton degree on the day and 0.5 yuan/ton degree week - on - week, while the prices of Australian lump and South African semi - carbonate were stable [2]. - Blue charcoal small materials: The prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement 3.2.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Operate with a bottom - oscillation mindset; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [6]. 3.2.2 Important Information - On the 25th, the quotation of semi - carbonate Mn36.81% at Tianjin Port was 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron Mn33.77%Fe21.14% with a particle size of 6 - 100mm was quoted at 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon lump Mn47% was quoted at 42 yuan/ton degree [7]. - A silicon - manganese plant in Ningxia reduced production of 1 silicon - manganese 6517 furnace [7]. 3.3 Related Attachments - Figures include the trend of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM on the disk, the monthly spread of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, the basis of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, spot prices of silicon ferro and manganese silicon, ferroalloy electricity prices, and cost - profit charts of silicon ferro and manganese silicon [9][11][13][15][17][23].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [1][2] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03107370 [1] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018389 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term, while peanut futures will fluctuate at the bottom. The new - season peanut output is expected to be higher than last year, and there is still room for the price of Peanut 01 to fall [4][8]. Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK604 | 7934 | 72 | 0.91% | 30,783 | -23.63% | 19,377 | -5.00% | | PK510 | 8206 | 40 | 0.49% | 56 | -49.55% | 637 | -0.62% | | PK601 | 7936 | 78 | 0.98% | 98,799 | -12.08% | 107,328 | -9.80% | [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan are stable, while those in Northeast China are rising. For example, the price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.95 yuan/jin, and the price in Changtu, Liaoning has increased by 0.1 yuan/jin to 4.9 yuan/jin. The price of Baisha common peanuts in Henan is between 3.65 - 3.9 yuan/jin. Imported peanut prices are stable, with Sudanese refined rice at 8,600 yuan/ton, Senegalese peanuts at 7,600 yuan/ton, Brazilian new peanuts at 9,200 yuan/ton, and Indian specification peanuts (50/60) at 8,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Today, some peanut oil mills have lowered their purchase prices, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 7,050 - 7,200 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price of oil mills is 7,900 yuan/ton. The prices of soybean oil and peanut oil are stable, with the domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil quoted at 14,500 yuan/ton and the small - pressed fragrant peanut oil at 16,500 yuan/ton [4][6]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao has fallen, and the unit protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low. In the short term, peanut meal is relatively strong, with the 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3,190 yuan/ton [6]. Import Price - Sudanese peanuts are priced at 8,600 yuan/ton, and Senegalese peanuts are priced at 7,600 yuan/ton, both with no price change [2][4]. Spread | Peanut Inter - period | Spread | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK01 - PK04 | 2 | 6 | | PK04 - PK10 | - 272 | 32 | | PK10 - PK01 | 270 | - 38 | [2] Group 5: Market Analysis - The price of common peanuts has risen recently, and the price of imported peanuts is stable. The price difference between oil - used peanuts and commercial peanuts is large, and the price difference between common peanuts in Henan and Northeast China is at a high level. With the increase in supply and weak downstream demand, peanut prices are relatively stable in the short term [8]. - The spot price of peanut oil is stable, and peanut meal has been stable recently. The theoretical压榨 profit of oil mills is good. The quality of peanuts in Henan and other places is poor, and the spot price is relatively low but starting to rise. Currently, the futures market reflects the loose supply of oil - used peanuts, and oil mills have not carried out large - scale purchases. However, the price of common peanuts in Henan has increased today [4][8]. Group 6: Trading Strategies Unilateral - Peanuts 01 and 05 will fluctuate at a low level. Short Peanut 01 on rallies [9]. Inter - month Spread - Reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [10]. Options - Hold the short position of PK601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 7: Related Figures - Figure 1: Shandong Peanut Spot Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [13] - Figure 2: Peanut Oil Mill Pressing Profit (Unit: yuan/ton) [13] - Figure 3: Peanut Oil Price (Unit: yuan/ton) [17] - Figure 4: Peanut Spot and Continuous Contract Basis (Unit: yuan/ton) [17] - Figure 5: Peanut 10 - 1 Contract Spread (Unit: yuan/ton) [20] - Figure 6: Peanut 1 - 4 Contract Spread (Unit: yuan/ton) [20]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: [Livestock Daily] Supply Pressure Increases, Spot Prices Continue to Fall [2] - Report Date: November 25, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Chen Jiezheng [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Spot prices of live pigs across the country continued to decline slightly today. The overall supply pressure in the live pig market is expected to continue, and the general trend of spot prices is expected to be weak. [2] - Live pig futures prices showed a slight oscillation, and the market remained stable overall. In the short - term, prices will oscillate, but in the long - term, there is still significant downward pressure on futures prices. [4] Group 4: Spot Market Information Spot Prices - Today's prices in various regions showed a decline. For example, in Henan, the price dropped from 11.49 to 11.34, a decrease of 0.15. The average price remained unchanged at 11.62 [2]. Sow and Piglet Prices - Piglet prices remained at 209, and sow prices remained at 1546 this week [2]. Contract Spreads - For example, LH7 - 9 changed from - 930 to - 925, an increase of 5; LH9 - 1 changed from 2225 to 2300, an increase of 75 [2]. Futures Prices - Futures contracts like LH01 increased by 15, LH05 increased by 70, and LH07 increased by 95 [2]. Slaughter Volume - The slaughter volume increased from 172,840 to 173,120, an increase of 280 [2]. Size - based Pig Price Spreads - The spread between standard pigs and medium - sized pigs decreased from 0.52 to 0.5, a decrease of 0.02; the spread between large - sized and medium - sized pigs remained at 0.31 [2]. Group 5: Market Analysis - Scale enterprises' overall live pig sales volume decreased, but the follow - up sales pressure is still expected to continue due to the slow progress in the early stage. The enthusiasm for sales among ordinary farmers has increased recently, and the overall sales pressure continues to be evident. [2] - The number of second - fattening entries has decreased recently. Due to the overall decline in the size - based pig price spread and the decrease in live pig prices, the enthusiasm for restocking has decreased compared to before. [2] - The current average weight of live pigs for sale has rebounded compared to before, and the supply of large - weight pigs is still relatively high. The slowdown in the sales rhythm has supported pig prices to some extent. [2] Group 6: Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see [5] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5] - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [5]

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2242 | 22 | 0.98% | 791,802 | -0.94% | 1,015,768 | 4.24% | | C2605 | | 2263 | -1 | -0.04% | 115,839 | 6.16% | 359,634 | 2.85% | | C2509 | | 2275 | -8 | -0.35% | 4,815 | 17.64% | 19,572 | 8.17% | | CS2601 | | 2556 | 21 | 0.82% | 159,970 | 1.28% | 254,397 | 5.23% | | CS2605 | ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soybean meal inventory still faces pressure, and the market is oscillating. The overall international soybean market supply - demand situation is relatively loose, with the US market showing a relatively strong trend, while the Brazilian soybean prices are expected to face some pressure in the medium - term. The domestic market is also in a state of relatively loose supply - demand, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be affected by multiple factors such as international supply, domestic demand, and macro - economic conditions [3][4][5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review - The US soybean market is oscillating. The Brazilian soybean prices have a slight rebound, and the domestic soybean meal market is rising slightly, while the rapeseed meal is continuing to rebound. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both are falling [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report is generally bullish, but the US soybean market's upward space is limited. The Brazilian new - crop soybean planting progress is fast, and the old - crop has good export and crushing performance. The Argentine old - crop soybean production is large, and the pressure on export and crushing has improved [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the rapeseed meal demand is weakening, with a certain supply pressure [6] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation is generally stable. The end of the US government shutdown and Sino - US negotiations have brought positive signals. The restoration of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the US soybean export prospects, but the subsequent import volume still has great uncertainty [7] 3.4 Logical Analysis - The US soybean market is expected to oscillate at a high level. The Brazilian market has price support. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure, and the rapeseed meal market may be affected by supply - side uncertainty. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to have different trends [8] 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Make a small - scale long - position layout - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude - **Options**: Adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. Some sectors are affected by supply - demand relationships, while others are influenced by macro - economic policies, geopolitical factors, and cost - related elements [5][9][11]. - In the financial derivatives market, the stock index futures market is expected to rebound, but the performance is differentiated. The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term [18][21][22]. - In the agricultural products market, most varieties are in a state of supply - demand balance or slight imbalance, with prices showing different trends such as oscillation, strength, or weakness [24][27][31]. - In the black metal market, steel prices are oscillating within a range, and the double - coking market is paying attention to the switching of trading logic. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom [57][59][62]. - In the non - ferrous metal market, precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. Other non - ferrous metals also have their own price trends based on supply - demand and cost factors [67][71][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market is expected to rebound, with the strength depending on large - scale technology companies. The performance of different contracts is differentiated, and the trading volume and positions of most contracts have decreased [18][19][20]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads [21]. Bond Futures - The bond market lacks driving forces and is expected to be volatile in the short term. The trading volume of treasury bond futures has increased slightly, and the yield of spot bonds has fluctuated slightly [22][23]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position in the T contract and being cautious about chasing up, and paying attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities of the TF contract [23]. Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Supply still has pressure, and prices are oscillating. The international soybean market has a pattern of abundant production, and the domestic supply pressure is relatively large [24][26]. - Trading strategies include short - selling a small amount of far - month rapeseed meal contracts, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [27]. Sugar - International sugar prices have risen slightly, and domestic sugar prices are slightly stronger. The global main producing areas are increasing production, but the production in Brazil and India may be lower than expected. The domestic market is affected by factors such as imports and production costs [27][30]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, conducting long January and short May arbitrage, and selling put options at low levels [30][31]. Oilseeds and Oils - The market continues to oscillate. The palm oil market has a high inventory and weak exports, but the production is expected to decrease in the future. The soybean oil market follows the overall trend, and the rapeseed oil market is expected to continue to destock [31][34]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [34][35]. Corn/Corn Starch - Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is oscillating at a high level. The US corn market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the domestic corn market is affected by factors such as production areas and price differentials [35][37]. - Trading strategies include short - term long - short operations, conducting cash - and - carry arbitrage on the spread between January corn and starch, and waiting and seeing for options [38]. Live Pigs - The pressure of live pig slaughter continues to increase, and prices continue to decline. The overall inventory of live pigs is relatively high, and the supply pressure still exists [38][39]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing, and using the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [41]. Peanuts - Peanut spot prices are stable, and the short - term market is oscillating at the bottom. The price of imported peanuts is stable, and the price of peanut meal is stable. The oil mill has adjusted the purchase price [41][43]. - Trading strategies include short - selling January peanuts on rallies, waiting and seeing for May peanuts, conducting reverse arbitrage on January - May peanuts, and selling pk601 - P - 7600 options [43]. Eggs - Demand is average, and egg prices are stable with a slight decline. The inventory of laying hens is relatively high, and the supply pressure is gradually easing. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [45][48]. - Trading strategies include going long on the January contract on dips, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [49]. Apples - Demand is average, and apple prices are mainly stable. The cold - storage inventory of apples is increasing, and the sales in the consumer market are in the off - season. The market is affected by factors such as imports and exports [50][53]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [53]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The fundamental contradiction is not significant, and cotton prices are mainly oscillating. The supply of new cotton is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [54][56]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [56]. Black Metals Steel - Steel prices are oscillating within a range, and there is still room for reducing hot metal. The supply - demand relationship of steel is improving, and the cost is supported. The hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [57][58]. - Trading strategies include maintaining an oscillating and slightly strong trend, conducting long - spread trading on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and waiting and seeing for options [59]. Double - Coking - The risk of price decline has been released, and attention should be paid to the switching of trading logic. The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and policy, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [59][61]. - Trading strategies include gradually closing short positions, going long on dips after the market stabilizes, conducting reverse arbitrage on January/May coking coal, and waiting and seeing for options [61][62]. Iron Ore - A bearish approach is recommended. The supply of iron ore is relatively loose in the fourth quarter, and the demand for domestic terminal steel is expected to remain low. The price is expected to be weak at a high level [62][63]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [64]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are oscillating at the bottom under the trend of production reduction. The supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are both decreasing, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [64][65]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and using the strategy of selling out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Precious metals are oscillating and waiting for data guidance. The expectation of US interest rate cuts has increased, and the prices of gold and silver have risen slightly. The market is waiting for economic data to provide more clear directions [67][68][69]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [70]. Copper - Copper prices are supported by the expectation of US interest rate cuts. The supply of copper is expected to decrease, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [71][73]. - Trading strategies include holding long positions below 86,000 yuan/ton in the short term, maintaining a long - term bullish trend, and waiting and seeing for arbitrage and options [74]. Alumina - Substantial production reduction has not been realized, and attention should be paid to the transfer of warehouse receipts. The supply of alumina is relatively stable, and the market is affected by factors such as long - term contracts and new production capacity [75][77]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading and arbitrage [78]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The expectation of US interest rate cuts is strengthening, and the price of Shanghai aluminum is stabilizing and rebounding. The supply - demand relationship of aluminum is relatively balanced, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong in the medium term [79][80]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips in the short term, paying attention to the narrowing of the price difference between East China and Central China in the spot market, and waiting and seeing for options [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - expectation has improved, and the price of aluminum alloy has rebounded with the price of aluminum. The cost of raw materials has decreased, and the supply is tight. The price has certain support [81][84]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [84]. Zinc - Zinc prices are oscillating widely. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is decreasing, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to be lower than expected. The demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [84][86]. - Trading strategies include going long on dips with a small position, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and waiting and seeing for options [87]. Lead - Lead prices are oscillating weakly within a range. The supply of lead ingots is increasing, and the demand for lead - acid batteries is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [90][91]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [91]. Nickel - Production reduction stimulates the rebound of nickel prices, but inventory suppresses the upward space. The supply of nickel is affected by factors such as production reduction in Indonesia, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [91][94]. - Trading strategies include waiting and seeing for single - side trading, arbitrage, and options [94]. Stainless Steel - The supply and demand are both weak, and the price rebounds following the raw materials. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the cost is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [95][99]. - Trading strategies include short - term rebound trading, waiting and seeing for arbitrage, and selling out - of - the - money call options [98]. Industrial Silicon - Short - term buying on dips is recommended. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to decrease in the dry season, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be strong [100][101]. - Trading strategies include holding existing long positions and buying on dips [101]. Polysilicon - Attention should be paid to the establishment of platform companies. The market is affected by factors such as policy and demand. The price is expected to be volatile [100][102]. - Trading strategies include short - side trading and waiting and seeing for arbitrage [103].

【生猪周报】供应仍有压力 价格小幅回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号：F3045719 投资咨询证号：Z0015458 目录 第一章 综合分析&交易策略 2 | | | 第二章 数据图表&逻辑分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 1.综合分析&交易策略 交易策略 单边：偏空运行为主 套利：观望 期权：卖出宽跨式策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 ◼ 综合分析 本周生猪价格整体小幅回落，供应压力继续体现。规模企业近期出栏压力有所增加，主要因前期出栏进度相对偏慢，近期 开始有一定加速出栏表现，普通养殖户对于低价仍有一定抵触表现，出栏有所减少，二次育肥近期整体稳定，普遍以观望 为主。生猪出栏方面整体变化有限。出栏体重方面来看，近期生猪出栏体重继续呈现增加态势，前期二次育肥入场较多同 时普通养殖户有一定增重表现，市 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The international soybean supply pressure has improved, which supports prices to some extent. However, the market may be more affected by South American weather. If the weather is good, the price pressure could be relatively high, and the new - crop market supply - demand pattern is generally loose [5]. - The domestic soybean meal price faces downward pressure due to cost - side factors and sufficient near - term supply, but there is still some support [5]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally in a supply - loose situation, with price pressure expected to remain, but it may fluctuate [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean market lacks more bullish factors, and the subsequent price is mainly affected by exports. South American old - crop supply pressure is neutral. Brazilian exports and crushing were good earlier, and the new - crop planting is progressing well. Argentine old - crop supply pressure has improved, and new - crop planting is advancing. The domestic soybean meal price is affected by cost and supply, and the rapeseed meal market is supply - loose [5][6]. - **Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the strategy of selling wide straddles [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean price fluctuated greatly this week, rising at first and then falling. The demand is improving, with export inspection volume and crushing volume increasing. However, the upside space is limited as the current price has fully reflected the bullish factors [13]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The Brazilian soybean price continued to fall. The old - crop supply pressure is neutral, with good demand in exports. The new - crop planting progress is accelerating, and the weather is expected to improve. The market is still relatively supply - loose [16]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The Argentine soybean price remained stable. The old - crop supply pressure has improved, and the new - crop planting is progressing smoothly, but the planting area may decrease [16]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal price fell, affected by the US soybean price and the actual supply situation. The oil - mill operating rate increased, demand and trading volume improved, and the near - term supply is sufficient [19]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal price fell due to sufficient supply. The demand is average, and the market is supply - loose, with prices expected to fluctuate [22]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: It includes data on US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine monthly export and crushing volume; and foreign basis [26][29]. - **Macro**: It involves exchange rates (USD/CNH, USD/BRL, UDS/ARS) and international shipping freight rates. The shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China all increased [40][48]. - **Supply**: It includes data on soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [51]. - **Demand**: It includes data on soybean meal and rapeseed meal提货量 [54]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on soybean, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal inventory [57].

尿素日报 大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货震荡下跌，最终报收 1638（-19/-1.15%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价稳中下探，成交一般，河南出厂报 1580-1600 元/吨，山东小 颗粒出厂报 1610-1620 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1620-1630 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1560-1570 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1570-1580 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1460-1500 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】11 月 24 日，尿素行业日产 20.33 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较 去年同期增加 1.87 万吨；今日开工率 84.08%，较去年同 81.64%提升 2.44%。隆众统计。 【逻辑分析】 主流地区出厂价稳中回落，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳， 成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑， 原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商 开始出货，新单成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the implementation of the platform company and sell on rallies [1]. - For industrial silicon, it is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of high - selling and low - buying [1]. Core Viewpoints - In November, polysilicon was in a tight balance, but the silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the polysilicon futures may rise, but the upside is limited due to pessimistic demand expectations. For now, it's better to wait and see [4]. - The industrial silicon market is in a tight balance. The price is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton, with limited downside and upside space in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Polysilicon - From a supply - demand perspective, in November, the silicon wafer production schedule decreased by 1GW to 59GW compared to October, translating to a polysilicon demand of about 118,000 tons. The polysilicon production was 115,000 tons, resulting in a tight balance. There were about 270,000 tons of upstream inventory, approximately 160,000 tons of downstream raw material inventory, and about 45,000 tons of warehouse receipt and trader inventory. The silicon wafer and battery markets faced pressure due to increased hoarding risks and cash - flow needs of some manufacturers. If the polysilicon platform company is launched as rumored, the futures may rise, but the upside is limited. Currently, it's advisable to wait and see [4]. - Trading strategies: For the short term, wait for more certain opportunities; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [6]. Industrial Silicon - Supply - demand situation: This week, the DMC weekly production was 49,200 tons, a 1.03% increase; the polysilicon weekly production was 27,500 tons, a 3.24% decrease; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%, unchanged; the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate was 60.6%, unchanged. The industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [7]. - Trading logic: After the silicone industry meeting, there was no expected production cut, and the industrial silicon market remained in a tight balance. Factories were reluctant to sell below 9,400 yuan/ton, and downstream acceptance of the price was high. The basis was at a relatively high level, limiting the downside of the futures price. Without a further reduction in supply, the upside momentum was also insufficient. It is expected to trade in the range of (8700, 9500) yuan/ton [7]. - Trading strategies: Trade in the range with high - selling and low - buying; no arbitrage or option strategies are recommended [7]. Chapter 2: Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Market Trends**: This week, the industrial silicon futures first rose and then fell, with the main contract closing at 8,960 yuan/ton on Friday. The spot prices generally increased by 50 yuan/ton [11]. - **Downstream Demand**: This week, the DMC production increased by 1.03% to 49,200 tons, the polysilicon production decreased by 3.24% to 27,500 tons, the primary aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 59.8%, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate remained at 60.6% [14]. - **Production**: This week, the industrial silicon weekly production was 89,100 tons, a 1.42% increase. The total number of open furnaces was 261, a decrease of 3. An enterprise in Yili stopped production, and the number of open furnaces in Xinjiang decreased. There are no expected changes in Xinjiang, but some furnaces in Yunnan and Sichuan may stop, and the production is expected to decrease next week [25]. - **Inventory**: The industrial silicon social inventory was 548,000 tons, a 2,000 - ton increase; the inventory of sample enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 180,600 tons, a 5,200 - ton increase; the downstream raw material inventory was 232,600 tons, a 2,700 - ton decrease [26]. - **Related Product Prices**: This week, the industrial silicon spot prices increased slightly; the DMC and terminal product prices of organic silicon also increased; the industrial silicon raw material prices remained stable [31][36][48]. - **Downstream Industry Data**: The operating rate of organic silicon intermediates increased slightly; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased slightly, and the recycled aluminum alloy operating rate strengthened [42][45]. Chapter 3: Polysilicon Fundamental Data Tracking - **Price Trends**: This week, silicon wafers and batteries saw significant price drops. The polysilicon prices were relatively stable, while the prices of silicon wafers and batteries decreased compared to the end of September and last weekend [53][54]. - **Component Data**: Recently, component enterprises started to implement the spirit of the association meeting and gradually raised component quotes. In November, some component enterprises reduced production, but terminal demand provided some support. The component production schedule was expected to be 46GW. European component inventory increased to 35.4GW, and domestic manufacturers' inventory was 30.3GW, at a moderately low level [62]. - **Battery Data**: Battery export demand was good, but specialized battery manufacturers' inventory reached 10.21GW, showing obvious inventory accumulation and pressuring battery prices. In November, the component production schedule decreased, and the battery production schedule was adjusted to 54GW [63]. - **Silicon Wafer Data**: This week, the silicon wafer enterprises' operating rate decreased, and the weekly production dropped to 12.78GW. Silicon wafers were produced on - demand, with an inventory of 18.72GW. The November production schedule was 59GW, a 1GW decrease from October [68]. - **Polysilicon Data**: This week, polysilicon production decreased slightly, and the factory inventory increased slightly to 271,000 tons. In November, Tongwei planned to gradually stop production in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total annual production suspension scale of 370,000 tons. Its production is expected to decrease by 20,000 - 25,000 tons compared to October and another 10,000 tons in December. Some new capacities of Asian Silicon, Daquan Energy, and Xinte Energy are ramping up, while GCL Technology has a certain production cut plan. Overall, the November production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons compared to October [73].