Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - **Steel**: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - **Price**: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - **Price**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - **Outlook**: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - **Weather**: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - **Price Adjustment**: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - **Project Progress**: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - **Production Resumption**: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - **Urban Renovation**: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 6 月 3 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4745 元/吨（-19），常州市场价 4670 元 /吨（-10），主力基差-75 元/吨(+9），广州市场价 4740 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨（-10）。基本面，长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端三季度有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，供应压力较大；需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局。最近库 存去化尚可，略低于去年同期，季节性去库过程中，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。宏观面，经过 4 月初贸易战突发的冲击影响逐步淡化，近期 关税缓和超过预期，但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存，继续关注进一 步的演化。国内一季度数据表现偏好，二季度转出口或有一定支撑，国 内大规模刺激政策短期或难出台。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政 策力度。总的来看，弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制，绝对 价格低位。PVC 估值偏低，驱动偏弱，盘面预计偏震荡。若国内刺激政 策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化， ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.13%至 77650 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 1.12%至 19860 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 6 月 4 日辽宁现货 13.9-14.2 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.1- 14.5 元/公斤，较上一日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.1-14.3 元/公斤，较上一日 稳定；广东 15.2-15.8 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格北 跌南稳。6 月生猪出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，随着气温升高和院校 放假，季节性需求淡季显现，且屠企加工利润仍亏损，整体消费难有好的表 现，在供强需弱格局下，猪价仍有下跌风险，不过二次育肥和冻品库存低位 进场积极性仍存，限制猪价跌幅，整体维持震荡调整，关注企业出栏节奏、 二育和冻品入库、体重变化。中长期来看，虽然近期行业会议让产业降能 繁、降体重、不让继续二育，受此影响远月期价上涨，但能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，6-9 月供应呈增 加态势，且 2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能虽有所去化，不过行业有利润， 去化幅度有限，处于均衡区间上限，四季度供应压力仍大，远期价格反弹承 压。策略上，盘面贴水提前兑现弱势预期，估值偏低，短期低位震荡。07 压力位 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is facing challenges with demand seasonally weakening, production expected to decline, and inventory trends shifting. The cost of steel is also decreasing due to falling raw material prices. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is relatively stable, with production maintained by coal price concessions and influenced more by macro - news. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a weak state, with deepening supply - demand contradictions and expected short - term weak adjustments or downward trends [3][4]. Section Summaries 1. Steel (Rebar) - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 162 (+13). - The latest production and sales data showed stable apparent demand, but demand is likely to weaken seasonally. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Production is expected to decline steadily, and inventory removal will slow or slightly increase. - With falling raw material prices, the cost center of steel has shifted down. The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. - In the short term, with a low - valuation background, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. 2. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The spot price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 727 yuan/wet ton (-8), and the Platts 62% index was 96.30 dollars/ton (-0.50). - The total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69. - The iron ore market is relatively strong due to coal price concessions. It is more affected by macro - news, and the high - output effect of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year will be seen in early July. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline. - Technically, the long and short forces on the futures are not obvious. It is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, but some mines have limited production or short - term shutdowns due to inventory pressure. The import volume from Mongolia is restricted by weak demand, and the port quotation is under pressure. - Demand: Coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy. Coking enterprises have low purchasing willingness due to shrinking profits, and the decline in steel mill hot - metal production suppresses raw material consumption. - Inventory: Coal mines face significant inventory pressure, and some mines are at full capacity. Coking plant raw - coal inventory has further decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is deepening, and it may continue to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of steel terminal demand, import coal price fluctuations, and domestic coal mine inventory removal and production reduction [3]. 4. Coke - Supply: Main - producing area coking enterprises maintain stable production, with only a few adjusting production due to environmental inspections and shipment pressure. - Demand: Steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. The decline in hot - metal production weakens the rigid demand for coke, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is deepening. - Inventory: Coking enterprise on - site inventory is accumulating rapidly, and some areas are offering discounts. Steel mill coke available days are decreasing, and they have a clear tendency to control volume and reduce prices. - Cost: Raw - coal prices are also falling, but the decline in coke is faster, causing some cost - sensitive coking enterprises to face losses. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coke market is intensifying, and it may continue to decline weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal steel consumption, steel mill profit repair, and the impact of macro - policies on the industry chain [4]. 5. Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce will organize the 2025 new - energy vehicle rural promotion campaign, with special and characteristic activities in selected counties and surrounding towns [5]. - US President Trump raised the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% (except for imports from the UK, which remain at 25%), effective from June 4, 2025, 00:01 EST [5]. - On June 3, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australian Trade Minister Farrell in Paris, discussing issues such as deepening China - Australia economic and trade relations and strengthening multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation [5]. - According to the China National Coal Association, in mid - May, the output of key coal enterprises was 60.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative output in the first and mid - May was 119 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [5]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Zhanjiang Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Huai'an Company [5].

宏观反复，需求转淡 2025-6-3 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 行情回顾 宏观与基本面分析 目 录 铝价走势展望 01 02 03 04 01 行情回顾 01 沪铝行情回顾 02 宏观与铝基本面分析 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2025/05/28 2025/05/23 2025/05/20 2025/05/15 2025/05/12 2025/05/07 2025/04/29 2025/04/24 2025/04/21 2025/04/16 2025/04/11 2025/04/08 2025/04/02 2025/03/28 2025/03/25 2025/03/20 2025/03/17 2025/03/12 2025/03/07 2025/03/04 2025/02/27 2025/02/24 2025/02/1 ...

关税影响再起 有色金属整体继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-06-03 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 架作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节前铜价重心小幅上移，现货分水有所回落，铜价维持高位震荡运行。节日期间美关摄影响用起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价湾添不利的情 | | | | | 绪影响。 上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场TC价格持稳-43左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较大。 卡 | | | | 高位偏强震荡 76500-79500 | 库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发货较少，节 | 区间交易 | | | | 前库存 ...

股指或震荡运行，国债观 望为主 2025-06-03 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 p 策略展望：震荡运行。 p 风险提示：特朗普政策实施节奏与力度，美国经济数据暴雷，美联储降息节奏，地缘政治 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：主要宽基指数5月均上涨，上证指数、创业板指也均涨超2%。 p 核心观点：关税政策推进受阻，特朗普政府求助上诉法院；美商务部长：即使关税政策被取消，总统也 有权采取其他行动。美国5月ISM制造业指数连续三个月萎缩，进口指标创十六年新低。美联储"当红 理事"沃勒：看不到长期通胀走高的证据，仍预期今年晚些时候降息。欧美谈判前欧盟警告美国：要谈 不拢，反制措施最迟7月14日就生效。美国称中方违反中美日内瓦经贸会谈共识，中国商务部发言人： 中方坚决拒绝无理指责 ...

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of [2900, 3000], while in the medium to long term, the price is expected to strengthen. Enterprises can take corresponding trading strategies based on price trends [3][6]. - The vegetable oil market is under pressure from the expectation of improved supply, with futures prices oscillating weakly. In the short term, the overall trend is expected to be volatile, while in the medium to long term, the market may shift from a volatile phase to a weakly oscillating one, and there is a possibility of a price rebound in the third quarter [3][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the spot price in East China was 2,830 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from the previous month. The M2509 contract closed at 2,968 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis was 09 - 150 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan/ton from the previous month. After the May Day holiday, the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a decline in the spot price of soybean meal, while the futures price was relatively strong, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA May report lowered the ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for the price. However, favorable weather in the US soybean - growing regions and smooth sowing have limited the upside potential. Brazilian soybean production has increased, with prices running weakly but supported by high demand and planting costs. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July will increase, leading to a loose supply - demand situation. In the long term, Sino - US trade frictions may increase import costs and reduce supply, and the domestic soybean inventory will start to decline after September [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. Considering the high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new Brazilian soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July is 2,850 yuan/ton, and from August to September it is 2,970 yuan/ton. The overall import crushing profit is between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to run strongly within the range of [2900, 3000]. Enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to build long positions at the lower end of the range [6]. 2. Vegetable Oil 2.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the main contract of palm oil (09) decreased by 88 yuan/ton to 8,060 yuan/ton, the main contract of soybean oil (09) decreased by 194 yuan/ton to 7,638 yuan/ton, and the main contract of rapeseed oil (09) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 9,348 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also showed different degrees of change [90][92]. 2.2 Palm Oil - In May, the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved in the second half of the month, while the production growth rate continued to slow down. It is expected that the inventory in Malaysia will increase to 2 million tons in May, with a slower accumulation rate compared to April. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in March. In China, the arrival of palm oil from May to June is expected to exceed 200,000 tons each month, and the inventory is expected to recover in the future [90]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - In May, the US biodiesel policy had a significant impact on the market. The current fundamentals of US soybeans are mixed. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July is expected to average about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, with a strong expectation of further inventory accumulation [90]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export in the 24/25 season remains strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing in Canada is in the later stage, with no obvious weather - related risks for now. In China, the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a historically high level, but the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly after June, and the inventory may start to decline in the third quarter [90]. 2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil (09) are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7,500 - 8,000, 7,800 - 8,200, and 9,200 - 9,500 respectively. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spreads of soybean - palm oil, rapeseed - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil (09) contracts can be monitored in the long term [90].