| 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,824.81 | -1.11% | | 深圳成指 | 12,914.67 | -1.51% | | 沪深 300 | 4,497.55 | -1.20% | | 上证 50 | 2,954.79 | -1.08% | | 中证 500 | 7,001.32 | -1.58% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 49,383.29 | -1.56% | | 道琼指数 | 48,114.26 | -0.62% | | 标普 500 | 6,800.26 | -0.24% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,111.46 | 0.23% | | 美元指数 | 98.2199 | -0.06% | | 人民币 | 7.0425 | -0.11% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,332.20 | -0.05% | | WTI 原油 | 55.27 | -2.73% | | LME 铜 | 11,619.00 | -0.57% | | LME 铝 | 2,882.50 | 0.26% | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Stocks are expected to have a medium - to long - term upward trend, with a short - term outlook of volatile operation; bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper should be reduced on rallies and replenished when the price stabilizes at a low level; aluminum requires more observation; nickel is recommended to be observed or shorted on rallies; tin is for range trading; silver should be held in long positions with caution in opening new positions; gold is for range trading; lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [1][10][12][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and soda ash are recommended for temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][21][22][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement; PTA is expected to move upward in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [1][30][32][33]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be shorted on rallies for near - term contracts and bullish cautiously for far - term contracts; eggs have limited upside potential; corn should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading, with a stronger view for near - term contracts and a weaker view for far - term contracts; oils are recommended to be shorted with caution [1][34][37][40]. Core Views - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external factors. For example, the macro - financial market is affected by central bank policies and economic data; the black building materials market is affected by supply - demand relationships in the industry; the non - ferrous metals market is affected by global economic trends and supply - demand in the mining industry; the energy and chemicals market is affected by raw material prices and downstream demand; the cotton and textile industry chain is affected by global supply - demand and domestic consumption; the agriculture and animal husbandry market is affected by breeding cycles and supply - demand in the food market [5][7][10]. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stocks**: Influenced by factors such as Fed policies, domestic economic data, and technological developments, the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a medium - to long - term upward trend. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - **Bonds**: Affected by central bank policies and regulatory measures, the market is expected to trade sideways. The key lies in the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance from important meetings [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: In a game between bearish realities and marginal support, it is recommended for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: With low valuation and weak drivers, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement and suitable for range trading [7]. - **Glass**: With high inventory, weak demand, and increasing supply expectations, it is expected to be in a low - level weak movement before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to be shorted on rallies [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by macro - easing expectations and long - term ore shortages, but with short - term over - rise risks, it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies and replenish when the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. - **Aluminum**: With factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity adjustments, and weakening demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: With an expected increase in supply and an oversupply pattern, it is recommended to observe or short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and weak downstream consumption, it is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to supply and demand changes [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by Fed policies and economic data, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement. Silver is recommended to hold long positions with caution in opening new positions, and gold is for range trading [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply disruptions and strong demand, it is expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement, and attention should be paid to mine developments [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and low valuation, it is expected to be in a low - level sideways movement and suitable for range trading [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and uncertain supply - demand changes, it is recommended for temporary observation [22]. - **Styrene**: Affected by factors such as oil blending and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Rubber**: Affected by supply shortages and inventory changes, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [23]. - **Urea**: With sufficient supply and stable demand and supply, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [25]. - **Methanol**: With supply recovery, high - level but fluctuating downstream demand, and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a sideways movement and suitable for range trading [26]. - **Polyolefins**: With strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. PE is expected to be in a range - bound movement, and PP is expected to be in a relatively weak movement [28]. - **Soda Ash**: With supply overcapacity and cost support, it is recommended for temporary observation [30]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic sales, they are expected to be in a relatively strong sideways movement [30]. - **PTA**: Affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to move upward in a volatile manner [32]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With weak demand and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement [32][33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: With short - term supply pressure and long - term capacity adjustment, near - term contracts are recommended to be shorted on rallies, and far - term contracts are bullish cautiously [34]. - **Eggs**: With sufficient supply and short - term balanced supply - demand, the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to long - term capacity changes [37]. - **Corn**: With short - term selling pressure and long - term demand recovery, it should be chased with caution in the short term and hedged on rallies [40]. - **Soybean Meal**: With different trends for near - and far - term contracts, it is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices for the December - January basis [40]. - **Oils**: Affected by reports and supply - demand relationships, they are expected to be in a relatively weak sideways movement. It is recommended to be shorted with caution for soybean and palm oils [47].

目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 长江期货贵金属周报 2025/12/15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 美联储12月议息会议如期降息25基点，表示将根据需要 启动短期国债购买美，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五， 美黄金报收4330美元/盎司，周内上涨2.4%，关注上方 压力位4400，下方支撑位4250。 美黄金连 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on the Aquaculture Industry - Report Date: December 15, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Researcher's License Number: F03089203 (Practice), Z0020750 (Investment Consultation) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - **Pigs**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the futures price is oscillating. In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability, and in the long - term, the price is expected to be relatively strong in the second half of next year, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Eggs**: The inventory base is still large, and the futures market shows near - term weakness and long - term strength. In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and in the long - term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Corn**: There is still selling pressure to be digested, and the futures market should be cautiously chased up. In the short term, selling pressure needs to be released, and in the long - term, the cost has strong support but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [8][101]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Aquaculture Viewpoints Summary Pigs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the national spot price was 11.34 yuan/kg, up 0.23 yuan/kg from last week. The futures price of live pigs 2503 reached 11,325 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week. The 03 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly pig price first declined and then rose [5][14][57]. - **Supply Side**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in September and the de - capacity accelerated in October. Before the first half of next year, the supply will remain high. From December to the first quarter of next year, the supply pressure is still large. The planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises in December increased month - on - month [5][18][57]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume continued to increase, the white - strip pork price rose slightly, the terminal consumption increased seasonally, and the fresh - sales rate continued to rise. However, the frozen - product inventory is high, which will suppress supply in the future [5][57]. - **Cost Side**: The weekly piglet price rose slightly, the price of binary breeding sows was stable, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit loss narrowed [5][57]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, the price rebound lacks sustainability; in the long term, the price in the second half of next year is expected to be relatively strong, but caution is needed [5][57]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For short - term near - month contracts, consider short - selling on rebounds; for long - term far - month contracts, be cautiously bullish, and industries can hedge on rebounds above profits [5][57]. Eggs - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin from last Friday. The futures price of the main egg 2601 contract was 3,077 yuan/500 kg, down 40 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was - 387 yuan/500 kg, up 90 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The weekly egg price rose slightly, and the futures market was volatile at the bottom [7][63][81]. - **Supply Side**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in December decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the supply pressure weakened marginally, but the inventory base was still large. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists, and the market will experience a bottom - grinding process [7][81]. - **Demand Side**: The terminal demand lacks festival support, but the cold weather stimulates channel inventory demand. The high vegetable prices and the low - priced eggs drive the terminal substitution demand [7][81]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the egg price lacks driving force; in the long term, the supply pressure still exists [7][81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For the 01 contract, breeding enterprises can hedge on rebounds; in the medium term, if there is large - scale culling around the Spring Festival, it may relieve the post - festival supply pressure; in the long term, pay attention to external factors for passive de - capacity [7][81]. Corn - **Spot - Futures Market**: As of December 12, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,315 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2601 contract was 2,242 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 73 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from last Friday. The weekly national corn price stagnated and slightly declined [8][86][101]. - **Supply Side**: The national grass - roots grain sales progress was 40%, which was relatively fast. The import of international grains remained low. The inventory in the north and south ports decreased month - on - month [8][101]. - **Demand Side**: The high inventory of pigs and poultry supports rigid feed demand. However, if the corn price continues to rise, the wheat substitution may increase. The deep - processing demand is limited due to high inventory and low profit [8][101]. - **Weekly Conclusion**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and the price rebound height is limited; in the long term, the cost has strong support, but the supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is relatively loose [8][101]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing up the futures market, and grain - holding entities can hedge on rebounds. In the long term, the demand will gradually be released, but the supply - demand pattern restricts the increase [8][101]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis - **Pigs**: It includes data such as slaughter weight, fat - standard price difference, slaughter rate, fresh - sales rate, frozen - product inventory rate, pig - grain ratio, and breeding profit [10]. - **Eggs**: It contains data on egg prices, hatching egg utilization rate, culled chicken sales, egg sales volume, inventory days, and breeding profit [64]. - **Corn**: It involves data on corn prices, grain - selling progress, port inventory, deep - processing enterprise start - up rate, and processing profit [87].

2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 股指会议支撑暂歇，债市 或震荡运行 金融期货策略建议 目 录 01 重点数据跟踪 02 01 金融期货策略建议 p 国债走势回顾：30年期主力合约跌0.71%，10年期主力合约跌0.13%，5年期主力合约跌0.08%，2年期主 力合约跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：货币方面， "把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准 降息等多种政策工具" 。灵活高效或许有两层含义：1）在经济运行整体向好的环境下，保持克制的政策力 度，注重高效；2）但当经济出现失速风险，或者因外部冲击出现一些不利局面时，货币政策必须灵活，政 策力度也可能更大，或许将超出市场预期。这意味着货币政策是相机抉择的立场倾向，市场不宜站在当前时 点就判断明年降息幅度比较有限，也不宜过度期待。尽管前期超长债面临的供需关系结构性失衡问题并未彻 底得到解决，曲线在中期维度或许依然保持偏陡状态运行。后续的供给压力以及配合性的货币环境或 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,500, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - Polypropylene faces significant trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,476 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.82%. The average price of LDPE was 8,683.33 yuan/ton, down 2.43% month - on - month; the average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month - on - month; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,768.89 yuan/ton, down 3.30% month - on - month. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 282.89 yuan/ton, down 13.22% month - on - month, and the January - May spread was - 68 yuan/ton [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 58 yuan; the May - September spread was - 33 yuan/ton, with a change of 13 yuan; the September - January spread was 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 71 yuan [20]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [21][22]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 481 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was - 176 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, up 0.06 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 681,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. The maintenance loss this week was 89,900 tons, down 90 tons from last week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have put into production or are planning to put into production polyethylene plants in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 5.43 million tons [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain [36]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film capacity utilization rate was 46.40%, down 1.72% from last week; the PE packaging film capacity utilization rate was 49.59%, down 0.63% from last weekend; the PE pipe capacity utilization rate was 31.00%, down 0.83% from last weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.9%, with a difference of 3.4% from the annual average level; the data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.8%, with a difference of 1.4% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 456,500 tons, down 2,990 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.15% [44]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,332 lots, unchanged from last week [48]. Polypropylene Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [52]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene - related products and other plastics showed different degrees of decline or change [54][56]. - **Basis**: On December 12, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,253.33 yuan/ton, down 2.51%. The PP basis was 124 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [58]. - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 39 yuan/ton, with a change of 56 yuan; the May - September spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan; the September - January spread was 82 yuan/ton, with a change of - 51 yuan [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 604.22 yuan/ton, down 16.45 yuan/ton from last weekend; the profit of coal - based PP was - 568.80 yuan/ton, down 52.04 yuan/ton from last weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.25%, up 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 807,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder was 71,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some polypropylene production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is mostly uncertain [78]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream capacity utilization rate was 53.99%, up 0.06%. The capacity utilization rate of plastic weaving was 44.06%, down 0.04%; the capacity utilization rate of BOPP was 62.93%, up 0.33%; the capacity utilization rate of injection molding was 58.57%, down 0.38%; the capacity utilization rate of pipes was 42.30%, unchanged [80]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $268.68 per ton, down $21.72 from last week; the export profit was - $14.00 per ton, down $1.70 from last week [85]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 537,100 tons, down 4.97%. The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 1.22% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 5.69% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,747 lots, down 15 lots from last week [95].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 15, 2025 [3] Group 2: Weekly Viewpoint Supply Situation - Last week, the weekly output of carbonate lithium increased by 170 tons to 24,065 tons, and the November output increased by 3% month-on-month to 103,740 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices for the re-review of mining rights transfers, affecting supply. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditure for fiscal year 25. [5] - In October 2025, China imported 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium concentrate imports from Australia decreased by 15% month-on-month, imports from Zimbabwe were 150,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 41%, and imports from Nigeria were 120,000 tons, remaining flat month-on-month. In October, carbonate lithium imports were 23,881 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.9%, with 14,800 tons imported from Chile, accounting for 62%. [5] - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week-on-week, causing some manufacturers producing carbonate lithium from purchased lithium ore to face cost inversion. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure. [5] Demand Situation - In October, the overall production schedule increased month-on-month, and the production schedule of large cell factories increased by 8% in September. In November, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 176.3 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. The total export of power and other batteries was 32.2 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 179.4 GWh, a month-on-month increase of 8.1% and a year-on-year increase of 52.2%. The trade-in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy are expected to continue to support the rapid growth of sales in the Chinese new energy vehicle market. [6] Inventory Situation - This week, carbonate lithium inventory showed a de-stocking state, with the factory inventory of carbonate lithium decreasing by 75 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 5,615 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 4,128 tons. [6] Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down. In November, the domestic carbonate lithium output increased by 3% month-on-month, and in October, 652,000 tons of lithium concentrate were imported, a month-on-month decrease of 8.3%. The total import volume of carbonate lithium in October was about 24,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 22% and a year-on-year increase of 3%. Downstream demand is strong, and the de-stocking trend continues. It is expected that subsequent lithium salt imports from South America will supplement the supply. From the demand side, the terminal demand for energy storage continues to be good, but the production schedule in December is expected to decline slightly. In November, the production schedule of cathode materials increased by 2% month-on-month, and in October, it increased by 4% month-on-month. The risk of mining certificates in Yichun persists. With profit restoration, lithium extraction from ore continues to increase in production, and the cost center has shifted upward. The expectation of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine resuming production within the year has been dashed, and the downstream production schedule exceeds expectations. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at the ore end in Yichun. Downstream buyers are actively purchasing carbonate lithium, the de-stocking trend continues, and the inventory of traders has accumulated. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of mining certificates in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine. [7] Group 3: Key Data Tracking Price Data - Data on the spot tax-included average price of carbonate lithium in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals from April 1, 2019, to October 9, 2025 [9] - Data on the average price of 99.2% industrial-grade carbonate lithium from June 13, 2023, to October 13, 2025 [18] - Data on the average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6%-6.5%) from January 2, 2019, to May 26, 2025 [21] - Data on the average price of power-type lithium iron phosphate from February 8, 2021, to September 19, 2025 [43] - Data on the market price of ternary material 8-series NCA type from January 1, 2021, to November 6, 2025 [47] Production Data - Data on the weekly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [10][11] - Data on the monthly production of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [12][13] - Data on the production of power and other batteries (including monthly values, values of lithium iron phosphate, and year-on-year growth rates) from January 2020 to October 2025 [24] - In November 2024, the production of carbonate lithium from different raw materials accounted for 19.56% from salt lakes, 23.05% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [25][26] - Data on the monthly production of ternary materials from 2021 to 2025 [32][33] - Data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate from 2021 to 2025 [36][37] Inventory Data - Data on the weekly inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [14][15] - Data on the monthly factory inventory of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [19][20] Import Data - Data on the import volume of lithium spodumene from 2021 to 2025 [40][41] - Data on the import volume of carbonate lithium from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: The Fed's Dovish Rate Cut and the Continuous New High of New York Copper Inventory [1] Report Date - December 15, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment. The copper concentrate TC remains at a historically low negative level, and the Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The shortage of copper mines supports the copper price center. Although the downstream demand slows down in the off - season, the operating rate of copper foils related to new energy and energy storage has increased. The copper price may continue to fluctuate at a high level [5]. - On the supply side, the mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. The domestic copper concentrate port inventory decreased, and the electrolytic copper production is expected to rise again in December. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate weakened due to high copper prices, except for the copper foil operating rate which reached a new high. In terms of inventory, the destocking of domestic copper social inventory slowed down, while LME and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [8][9]. - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Main Viewpoints and Strategies 1.1 Market Review - Shanghai copper showed a strong and volatile trend last week, reaching a new historical high at 84,080 yuan/ton on Friday with a weekly increase of 1.40%, but it dropped significantly during the night session on the weekend. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell's stance was neutral while restarting the balance - sheet expansion. The Central Economic Work Conference in China boosted market sentiment [5]. 1.2 Supply - side Situation - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [8][37]. 1.3 Demand - side Situation - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [9][40]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [9][45]. 1.5 Strategy Suggestions - The Fed's liquidity release and balance - sheet expansion expectations still support the copper price in the short term, but the internal differences in the Fed bring great uncertainty to the interest - rate cut rhythm next year. The market situation is still chaotic, and the high copper price suppresses downstream consumption. It is expected that the upward resistance of the copper price will increase, and it may enter a high - level oscillation stage. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish them after the price stabilizes at a low level [10]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industrial Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Data Overview - In November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year. The trade surplus in November was 111.68 billion US dollars. From January to November, China's exports in US dollars increased by 5.4% year - on - year, imports decreased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the trade surplus was 1.076 trillion US dollars [15]. - From January to November, the cumulative increase in China's social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The new social financing in November was 2.49 trillion yuan. At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5% [16]. - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [17]. - On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, and planned to start buying Treasury bills from December 12, with a monthly purchase of 40 billion US dollars [18]. 2.2 Industrial Information Overview - In October, the copper production of Codelco in Chile decreased by 14.3% year - on - year, while the copper production of Escondida increased. The copper production of Collahuasi decreased by 29.3% year - on - year [20]. - In November, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 4.883 million tons, a 4.7% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper ore concentrates in November were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 27.614 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [20]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by the shareholders of both parties, aiming to form a new mining giant with an annual copper production of over 1.2 million tons [20]. - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in the Condestable copper mine in Peru for 241 million US dollars, with a potential future copper - equivalent annual production of about 27,000 tons [20]. 3. Spot - Futures Market and Positioning Situation 3.1 Premiums and Discounts - During the week, the copper price continued to rise, and the purchasing sentiment declined, causing the Shanghai copper spot premium to fall under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3 maintained a small premium, and the New York - London copper spread weakened [23]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 12, the Shanghai copper futures position was 222,313 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6.00%, and the average daily trading volume was 165,509.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 5.14%. As of December 5, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was 11,859.6 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 54.41%. As of November 18, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 61,603 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 2.66% [27]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Supply - side - The mine is in continuous shortage, and TC remains at a historical low. As of December 12, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 664,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.59%. The copper concentrate spot smelting fee was - 43.13 US dollars/ton. The domestic southern copper scrap processing fee in October was 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported CIF copper scrap processing fee was 90 US dollars/ton. After the decline in electrolytic copper production in September and October, it remained stable in November. The electrolytic copper production in November increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month, with a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The production in December is expected to rise again [37]. 4.2 Downstream Operating Rates - As of December 21, the weekly operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, a 1.87 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The operating rates of copper strips, copper foils, and copper rods in October were 68.39%, 86.30%, and 50.18% respectively. In November, the operating rate of the copper pipe industry increased slightly month - on - month but still showed the largest year - on - year decline in recent years. The operating rate of copper foil enterprises has increased for 7 consecutive months, reaching a new high this year [40]. 4.3 Inventory - As of December 12, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8.94 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54%. As of December 11, the domestic copper social inventory was 163,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. As of November 21, the LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.06%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 45,060 short tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.15% [45].

长江期货尿素周报： 供需面偏稳 关注短期消息影响 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格下行明显，12月12日尿素2601合约收盘价1625元/吨，较上周下调48元/吨，期间最 高1670元/吨，最低1624元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1670元/吨，较上周下调22元/吨，跌幅1.3%。基差：尿素 现货价格偏稳，期货价格下行，主力基差连续走强，12月12日河南市场主力基差45元/吨，周度基差运行区间28— 45元/吨。价差：尿素1-5价差窄幅震荡，12月12日1-5价差-58元/吨，周度运行区间（-68）—（-58）元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率83.95%，较上周提升1.19个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率63.6%，较 上周降低4.54个百分点，尿素日均产量19.79万吨。供应方面，下周山东检修装置或将复产，日产量仍在20万吨附近。 成本端无烟末煤市场延续下行，块煤价格以稳为主，截至 ...

长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-12-15 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 目 录 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 01 豆粕：成本叠加去库支撑，价格偏强运行 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月12日，华东现货报价3070元/吨，周度上涨50元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3083元/吨，周度上涨47元/吨；基差报价01-10元/吨， 期现逐步回归。周度受大豆到港通关时间延长，同时大豆逐步进去去库周期，供需收紧下价格走势偏强，同时拍卖大豆价格在3900元/吨以上， 支撑豆粕底部价格；远月受天气好转以及成本低位，价格呈现偏弱走势。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达4.22亿吨，同 ...