1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the glass industry in this report is "Weak Operation" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass futures declined significantly last week, and the spot price suppressed the futures market again. With high inventory at the end of the year and great pressure on capital repayment, the willingness of middle - stream traders to purchase is low. The production capacity is stable at the end of the year, and the demand is weak, so the near - month contracts face great pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: The glass futures dropped sharply last week. High - end inventory, capital repayment pressure, and weak demand led to low purchasing willingness of middle - stream traders. A car glass production line was restarted last week, and the daily melting volume slightly increased. The market in the Shahe area is weak, and the prices in Hubei may decline. The prices in East and South China also decreased. The supply increase expectation of soda ash is fermenting, and the demand from the float glass and photovoltaic industries is saturated. In the short term, there is no news of production line shutdown, and the end - of - year production capacity is stable. The demand is weak, and the near - month contracts are under great pressure. Technically, the short - side force dominates [2] - Operation Strategy: The market is expected to operate weakly [2][3] 02. Market Review: Futures Drop Significantly - Spot Prices: As of December 12, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,040 yuan/ton (- 30) in North China, 1,080 yuan/ton (- 30) in Central China, and 1,200 yuan/ton (- 10) in East China. The prices of 5mm float glass from some manufacturers also decreased, such as a - 28 yuan/ton change for Shahe Anquan and a - 44 yuan/ton change for Shahe Great Wall [9][10] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 935 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 59 yuan/ton [10] 03. Market Review: Basis Widens Near Delivery - Soda Ash - Glass Price Difference: As of December 12, the futures price of soda ash was 1,093 yuan/ton, and that of glass was 935 yuan/ton. The price difference was 158 yuan/ton (+ 15) [11] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was 125 yuan/ton (+ 19) [15] - Contract Spread: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 spread was - 81 yuan/ton (+ 40) [15] 04. Profit: Gross Profit Turns Negative - Natural Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,572 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 372 yuan/ton (+ 9) [19] - Coal - Gas Production Process: The cost is 1,181 yuan/ton (- 10), and the gross profit is - 141 yuan/ton (- 20) [19] - Petroleum Coke Production Process: The cost is 1,086 yuan/ton (- 1), and the gross profit is - 6 yuan/ton (- 29) [19] - Fuel Prices: On December 12, the industrial natural gas price in Hebei was 3.8 yuan/m³, the CIF price of 3% sulfur shot coke from the US was 165 US dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin thermal coal was 612 yuan/ton [19] 05. Supply: Slightly Decreases - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (- 1,100), and there were 219 production lines in operation. The second - line of Anhui Wuhu Xinyi Electronics with a capacity of 500T/D was restarted last week [21] 06. Inventory: Remains High and Stable - As of December 12, the inventory of 80 glass samples across the country: North China had 10.042 million weight boxes (- 129,000), Central China had 6.835 million weight boxes (+ 125,000), East China had 12.114 million weight boxes (- 139,000), South China had 8.14 million weight boxes (- 537,000), Southwest had 11.997 million weight boxes (- 603,000), the factory warehouse in Shahe had 3.18 million weight boxes (unchanged), and the factory warehouse in Hubei had 4.61 million weight boxes (+ 160,000). The total production - factory inventory was 58.227 million weight boxes (- 1.215 million) [25][28] 07. Deep - Processing:开工率下降 - Production and Sales Ratio: On December 11, the comprehensive production - sales ratio of float glass was 95% (- 11%) [29] - LOW - E Glass: On December 12, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 44.3% (- 1.1%) [29] - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of December, the order days for glass deep - processing were 10.1 days (+ 0.2) [29] 08. Demand: New - Energy Vehicle Production Reaches a New High - Automobiles: In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles [38] - New - Energy Vehicles: In November, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [38] 09. Demand: Real - Estate Data Declines Year - on - Year - Real - Estate: In October, China's real - estate completion area was 37.3212 million m², a year - on - year decrease of 28%; the new construction area was 36.6207 million m² (- 29%); the construction area was 43.5928 million m² (- 7%); and the commercial housing sales area was 61.47 million m² (- 20%). The real - estate development investment in October was 585.699 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [45] - Transaction Area: From December 6 to December 12, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.22 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 22% [45] 10. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Basis Strengthens - Spot Prices: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash was 1,325 yuan/ton (unchanged) in North China, 1,250 yuan/ton (unchanged) in East China, 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) in Central China, and 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged) in South China [47] - Futures Prices: Last Friday, the soda ash 2601 contract closed at 1,093 yuan/ton (- 44) [52] - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the soda ash Central China 01 contract was 207 yuan/ton (+ 44) [51] 11. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Cost Decreases - Soda Ash Profit: As of last Friday, the profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53] - Other Prices: Last Friday, the market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,405 yuan/ton (+ 103), and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride from Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [54] - Production Costs: The cost of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton (- 22), and the gross profit was - 68 yuan/ton (+ 1); the cost of the joint - production process was 1,781 yuan/ton (- 61), and the gross profit was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 50) [53][55] 12. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Inventory Increases - Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Last weekend, the number of soda ash warehouse receipts in the exchange was 5,763 (- 678) [66] - Inventory: As of December 12, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4943 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons), including 790,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 20,300 tons) and 703,800 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 24,000 tons) [63][66] - Soda Ash Production: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 735,400 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,500 tons), including 397,800 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 16,300 tons) and 337,600 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 15,200 tons). The loss volume was 135,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 32,200 tons) [66] 13. Cost Side - Soda Ash: Apparent Demand is Moderate - Apparent Consumption: Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda ash was 418,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 600 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda ash was 361,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,400 tons [70] - Production - Sales Ratio: Last week, the production - sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91% [76] - Glass Factory Inventory: In November, the inventory days of soda ash in sample float glass factories was 24.1 days [69]

2025-12-15 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 ◆ 基本面分析 山西铝土矿价格微降，河南铝土矿价格暂稳，几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比持稳于70.5美元/干吨，矿价预计将承压下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比上升10万吨至9590万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加10.2万吨至458.5万吨。11月中旬至12月初因技 改、技改试车检修的企业复产完成，同时部分沿海氧化铝企业临时小修，氧化铝行业运行产能整体较为平稳。电解铝运行产能周度 环比增加2万吨至4446.4万吨。减复产能方面，山西朔州能源对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右；新疆个别铝 厂因环保管控有所减产。新投产能方面，天山铝业20万吨周内通电投产、2026年全面达产，扎铝35万吨将建成投产、2026年全 面达产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.1%至61.8%。整体需求逐步进入淡季，叠加铝价高位大幅波 动抑 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar for range trading; glass for shorting on rallies [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and replenish on lows; aluminum for increased observation; nickel for waiting or shorting on rallies; tin for range trading; gold for range trading; silver for holding long positions and cautious new positions; lithium carbonate for strong - side oscillation [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC for range trading; caustic soda for temporary waiting; soda ash for temporary waiting; styrene for range trading; rubber for range trading; urea for range trading; methanol for range trading; polyolefins for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn for strong - side oscillation; PTA for upward oscillation; apples for strong - side oscillation; red dates for weak - side oscillation [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs for a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term contracts and cautious bullishness for far - term contracts; eggs for limited upside; corn for cautious chasing of highs in the short term and hedging on rallies for grain holders; soybean meal for range operation; oils for gradually taking profit on previously established short positions [1]. Core Views - The market is influenced by a variety of factors, including macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different sectors and varieties have different trends and investment strategies due to their unique fundamentals [1][6][8]. - Some commodities are facing supply - demand imbalances, such as oversupply in soda ash and strong supply pressure in the pig market, while others benefit from factors like improving demand or supply disruptions, like the potential support for tin prices from supply tightness [18][34]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Medium - to long - term bullish, with short - term possible sideways movement. Influenced by factors such as potential Fed chair appointments, Chinese economic data, and policy responses to the central economic work conference [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade sideways. Driven by factors like central bank policies, regulatory changes, and the need for year - end configuration [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading is recommended. The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal supports [8]. - **Rebar**: Range trading is advised. With low valuations and weak drivers, prices may oscillate weakly [8]. - **Glass**: Shorting on rallies is suggested. High inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases lead to a bearish outlook [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation is expected. Macro - easing expectations and long - term supply shortages support prices, but short - term over - rise has curbed consumption and increased adjustment risks [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: A rebound is possible, but increased observation is recommended. Factors include changes in bauxite prices, alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities, and demand in the off - season [13]. - **Nickel**: Sideways movement. Long - term supply surplus exists, but new RKAB policies bring uncertainties [16]. - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. Supply is tight, and downstream consumption is weak, but prices are expected to be supported [18]. - **Silver**: Sideways movement. Fed policies, economic data, and industrial demand support prices, with a strategy of holding long positions and cautious new positions [18]. - **Gold**: Range trading is advised. Fed policies and economic uncertainties lead to a bullish medium - term outlook [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Strong - side oscillation. Supply is affected by mine situations, and demand is strong, with attention needed on mine developments [20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Low - level oscillation. Weak domestic demand, high inventory, and uncertain export growth lead to a weak outlook, but low valuations and potential policy supports exist [22]. - **Caustic Soda**: Cautiously bearish, with temporary waiting. High inventory, weak demand from downstream alumina, and potential production changes are factors [23]. - **Styrene**: Sideways movement. Overseas blending logic has limited impact on the weak fundamentals, with attention on price changes [24]. - **Rubber**: Sideways movement. Uncertain supply - demand, high inventory, and weak downstream demand lead to a range - bound market [24][25]. - **Urea**: Sideways movement. Supply increases, and demand is a mix of weakening agricultural demand and strengthening industrial demand, with inventory changes affecting prices [26][27]. - **Methanol**: Sideways movement. Supply is stable, demand from methanol - to - olefins is mixed, and traditional demand is weak, with inventory decreases [27]. - **Polyolefins**: Weak - side oscillation. Supply is strong, demand is weak, especially for PE agricultural film, but inventory reduction provides some support [29]. - **Soda Ash**: Temporary waiting. Supply surplus is the main pressure, but cost support and potential supply contractions are factors [31]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Strong - side oscillation. Global supply - demand is relatively loose, but domestic sales and yarn prices support the market [31]. - **PTA**: Upward oscillation. Geopolitical factors drive up oil prices, and PTA supply - demand is in a de - stocking phase [31][33]. - **Apples**: Strong - side oscillation. Market trading is general, with prices in different regions showing certain ranges [33]. - **Red Dates**: Weak - side oscillation. Acquisition progress is in the late stage, and enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is general [33]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: Sideways bottom - building. Short - term supply pressure exists, and long - term prices are affected by capacity reduction and cost changes, with different strategies for near - and far - term contracts [34]. - **Eggs**: Limited upside. Short - term spot and futures are range - bound, medium - term supply - demand improves marginally, and long - term supply pressure remains [35][36][37]. - **Corn**: Rebound. Short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and long - term demand gradually recovers, but supply - demand is relatively loose [37]. - **Soybean Meal**: Range oscillation. Near - term contracts are strong due to supply delays and de - stocking, while far - term contracts are weak due to South American production expectations [38]. - **Oils**: Soybean and palm oils for weak - side oscillation, rapeseed oil for limited rebound. Different supply - demand situations and external factors lead to different trends [38][42].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Black: Export Policy Changes, Steel Prices Fluctuate Weakly" and is dated December 15, 2025 [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 3. Core View - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The implementation of export license management for some steel products may affect steel exports in 2026 [5] 4. Summary by Directory 01 Black Sector Trend Comparison - The black sector weakened collectively last week, with coking coal leading the decline, and the strength relationship among varieties was iron ore > hot - rolled coil > rebar > coke > coking coal [5][7] 02 Futures Market Rise and Fall Comparison - The futures market was mainly in a downward trend, and non - ferrous metals were relatively strong [9] 03 Spot Price - The entire sector declined, and coking coal had the largest decline [16] 04 Profit and Valuation - The immediate profit improved, and the valuation of rebar futures was low [17] 05 Steel Supply and Demand - Both steel supply and demand decreased last week, and the inventory was smoothly destocked [5][6][19] 06 Iron Ore Supply and Demand - The port iron ore inventory continued to increase last week, and based on the previous shipping data, the future arrivals will still be at a high level. The iron ore supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [6][28] 07 Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The domestic raw coal production declined at a low level, but the customs clearance of Mongolian coal was at a high level, and the market expectation weakened. The coking coal inventory gradually accumulated in upstream mines [6][31] 08 Coke Supply and Demand - Coke production fluctuated at a low level, and the inventory of coking plants rebounded [33] 09 Variety Spread - The profit on the futures market improved, and the ratio of rebar to coke widened [35] 10 Key Data/Policy/Information - The Central Economic Work Conference set the tone for next year's economic work. The implementation of export license management for some steel products will start on January 1, 2026. The social financing scale increased in the first 11 months, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" in the photovoltaic industry was officially launched [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: The stock index is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to sell on rallies [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper suggests holding a small long position; aluminum recommends reducing long positions; nickel advises waiting and seeing or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are all for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to sell on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; eggs' price increase is limited; for corn, be cautious about chasing high in the short term, and grain holders can hedge on rallies; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, the previously placed short positions can gradually take profits and exit [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international situations. Different futures varieties have different trends and investment suggestions based on their specific fundamentals [1][5][7] - For most varieties, the market is in a state of volatility, and investment strategies need to be adjusted according to the specific situation of each variety, such as range trading, buying on dips, or selling on rallies. 3. Summary of Each Industry Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: The central economic work conference focuses on promoting economic growth and stabilizing the real estate market. The market rotation is fast, and the stock index may trade in a range, but it is bullish in the medium - to - long term [5] - **Government Bonds**: Regulatory policies and the entry of insurance funds are factors. The market's ability to break out of the current range depends on the end - of - year allocation and important meetings. The bond yields are at an attractive level, and government bonds are expected to trade in a range [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coal market is under pressure with rising port inventories and falling prices. However, there are signs of low - level repair, and it is recommended for range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The demand is weakening, and steel mills are reducing production. The price is at a relatively low - level valuation, and it is expected to trade in a range with short - term trading as the main strategy [7] - **Glass**: The supply is relatively stable, but the demand is weakening. The social inventory pressure is large, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The weak US labor market data and various industry factors support copper prices, but the downstream demand is shrinking. It is recommended to hold a small long position cautiously [10] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price is under pressure, the production capacity is changing, and the demand is entering the off - season. The Fed's meeting is positive, and it is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia brings uncertainty, and the medium - to - long - term supply is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see or sell on rallies [15] - **Tin**: The tin ore supply is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to overseas supply and demand. It is recommended for range trading [16] - **Silver and Gold**: Fed officials' dovish statements increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and precious metals are supported. Silver suggests holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; gold is for range trading [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and it is expected to be strongly volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of mines [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and it is expected to continue to trade at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to policies and cost factors [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, and the demand from the main downstream is large. The production capacity changes offset each other. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic is difficult to change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is necessary to pay attention to the price of pure benzene and crude oil [23] - **Rubber**: The raw material price may be strong, but the overseas peak - production season, rising inventory, and off - season demand limit the upside. It is recommended for range trading [23] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the demand from compound fertilizers and other industries is increasing. The inventory is in a complex state, and it is recommended for range trading [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the olefin industry is slightly increasing, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory pressure is rising, and it is expected to trade weakly [26] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is rising. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is necessary to pay attention to various factors [27] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, the cost is rising, and the alkali plants are reluctant to lower prices. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic sales are fast, and the yarn price is strong, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [30] - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors drive up the crude oil price, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of destocking. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner [31] - **Apples**: The inventory apples are sold on - demand, and the trading atmosphere in different regions is different. It is expected to be strongly volatile [32] - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [32] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply pressure is large, and the demand increase is not obvious. The medium - to - long - term supply is still high, and the price in the first half of next year is under pressure. It is recommended to sell short - term contracts on rallies and be bullish on long - term contracts with caution [34] - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is still sufficient, and the price is supported. The medium - term supply growth slows down, and the long - term capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to hedge on rallies in the short term [36] - **Corn**: The short - term selling pressure needs to be digested, and the long - term demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high in the short term and hedge on rallies [36] - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic near - and far - month contracts have different trends. It is recommended for range trading, being bullish on near - month contracts and bearish on far - month contracts at appropriate times. Spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [37] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trends of the three major oils and fats are different. Bean and palm oils are under pressure, and rapeseed oil's rebound is limited. It is recommended to take profits on previously placed short positions [44]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,909.52 | -0.37% | | 深圳成指 | 13,277.36 | -0.39% | | 沪深 300 | 4,598.22 | -0.51% | | 上证 50 | 2,997.96 | -0.71% | | 中证 500 | 7,121.33 | -0.71% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,655.10 | 0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 47,560.29 | -0.38% | | 标普 500 | 6,840.51 | -0.09% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,576.49 | 0.13% | | 美元指数 | 99.2426 | 0.14% | | 人民币 | 7.0693 | -0.03% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,236.60 | 0.40 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The year 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle, and the industry needs thorough capacity clearance to enter the upward cycle [1][12][55] - Supply in 2026 will be high in the first half and low in the second half, with significant pressure in the first quarter. The high average weight of live pigs and concentrated pre - holiday slaughtering will suppress price increases during the peak season [2][54][56] - In 2026, as the "14th Five - Year Plan" begins, the warming macro - economy and improved pork cost - effectiveness will drive a moderate increase in pork demand, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [2][40][56] - Feed costs will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2026, and the industry will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, with the expected full cost dropping to around 12 yuan/kg [3][49][56] - Policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support measures such as state reserves will be implemented [3][51][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the pig market price was under pressure due to over - supply. The national live pig slaughter price fluctuated between 10.81 yuan/kg and 16.23 yuan/kg, and the futures showed a pattern of limited rebound and downward oscillation [7] - From January to February, the price fluctuated and declined. After the Spring Festival in February, the spot price quickly dropped to 14.5 yuan/kg, and then stopped falling and oscillated. The futures were relatively strong [7] - From March to June, the price fluctuated within a narrow range. After the festivals in April, the price decreased due to strong supply and weak demand. In June, it stopped falling and rebounded [8] - From July to December, the price trended downward. In September, the pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1. On December 5, the price dropped to 11.1 yuan/ton, a 31.6% decline from the beginning - of - year high [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pig Cycle - Since 2006, China has experienced about four complete pig cycles. The fifth cycle lasted about 23 months. If 2024 March is the starting point of a new cycle, as of November 2025, the decline stage has reached 15 months [12] - Compared with the fifth cycle, the current cycle's loss time and amplitude in the breeding sector are still insufficient. The industry needs more losses to drive thorough capacity clearance, and 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle [12][55] 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Accelerated culling of sows but still above the normal level**: Before September 2025, the culling of sows was slow. After September, under policy pressure and losses, the culling accelerated. As of October, the official sow inventory was 3990 million, still 2.31% above the normal level [17][19] - **Optimized sow inventory structure and improved production performance**: The proportion of binary sows has increased to 95%. In 2025, the industry's production performance continued to improve. The increase in production performance will offset some of the impact of capacity culling and increase potential supply in 2026 [25][26] - **Increasing number of piglets and high supply pressure in Q1 2026**: Since February 2025, the number of new - born piglets has increased. Based on piglet and feed data, the supply pressure from December 2025 to Q1 2026 is high [30] - **Higher average slaughter weight and short - term pressure to be released**: In 2025, the influence of secondary fattening decreased. The high average weight of live pigs reflects high supply pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the concentrated slaughter of large - scale farms and big pigs may form a "double pressure" [33][34] 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Steady growth in demand driven by macro - economic recovery and cost - effectiveness**: In 2025, the macro - economy had a weak recovery, consumer confidence was low, and pig demand was weak. In 2026, the improvement of the macro - economy and the cost - effectiveness of pork will drive the growth of pork consumption, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [40][41][56] - **Seasonal demand still exists but with milder fluctuations**: In 2025, the seasonal demand boost was short - lived and weak. In 2026, the Spring Festival is postponed, and the change in the industrial pattern will further weaken the peak - season characteristics [42] - **High frozen - product inventory and limited support for consumption**: The current high frozen - product inventory will suppress supply before and after the peak season [2][56] 3.2.4 Cost Side - In 2025, the feed price was low, and the average full cost of listed companies in September/October dropped to 12.69 yuan/kg [49] - In 2026, the feed cost will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the industry is expected to reduce the full cost to around 12 yuan/kg [50][56] 3.2.5 Policy Side - In 2025, multi - dimensional anti - involution policies were introduced to control production capacity, weight, secondary fattening, and strengthen environmental protection, aiming to guide the industry towards high - quality development [51][52] - The policy requires the reduction of sow inventory to below 3900 million by the end of January 2026, which can control the supply of live pigs in 2026 from the source [51] - In the future, policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support such as state reserves will be provided [52][57] 3.3 Outlook - Before the first half of 2026, supply will remain high, and the price during the peak season is not optimistic. The price in the first half of the year will be under pressure, and it may be relatively strong in the second half, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [57] - In terms of strategies, under supply pressure, short - term contracts should be shorted on rebounds, and long - term contracts should be cautiously bullish. The industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, copper prices reached new highs driven by both macro and fundamental factors. The easing of Sino-US trade frictions was positive, and the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle boosted copper prices. In 2026, the tightness of copper mine supply is expected to intensify, and in the long term, the demand for new energy, power, and AI data center construction will increase steadily. Therefore, the upward momentum of copper prices remains strong. However, due to the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting [5][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices rose under the influence of overseas interest rate cuts and copper mine shortages, with strong support from new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. Although tariff disturbances periodically suppressed copper prices, copper prices still reached new highs under the impetus of favorable macro factors and strong supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Q1**: Copper prices oscillated upward. Overseas interest rate cuts, tight raw material supply, and positive domestic policy expectations pushed up copper prices. However, factors such as Trump's tariff policy, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the Altonorte smelter incident affected the price trend, resulting in a high - level oscillation pattern with limited gains [11]. - **Q2**: Copper prices first fell sharply and then rebounded. Trump's tariff policy shocked the market, but the tight supply and strong demand of copper fundamentals supported the price rebound. Events such as the Kakula mine shutdown, the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Palestine, and Sino - US economic and trade talks also influenced the price [12]. - **Q3**: Copper prices were generally strong. In July, copper prices first rose and then fell due to factors such as supply tightening expectations and Trump's copper tariff implementation. In August and September, positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the Fed's dovish remarks, and domestic policy expectations boosted copper prices. The shutdown of the Grasberg mine due to a mudslide also pushed up copper prices [13]. - **Q4**: Copper prices reached new highs. The Sino - US summit and trade consultations brought confidence to the market. The Fed's interest rate cuts and the continuous tight supply of copper mines supported the price increase [14]. 2. Macro Analysis (1) Overseas - **Global economic growth slowdown**: In 2025, due to uncertainties such as overseas anti - globalization tariff policies, the global trade pattern was reshaped, and the economic growth rate was expected to slow down. According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate in 2025 was 2.8%, a 40 - basis - point reduction from the previous forecast [15]. - **US economic situation**: - **Manufacturing and service industries**: The US manufacturing PMI was relatively low, with the November 2025 ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.2, remaining below the boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The service industry continued to expand, with the October ISM services PMI reaching 52.4, the highest in eight months [17]. - **GDP**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, mainly driven by improved business investment and a significant boost in trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth, and consumer spending was also robust [18]. - **Inflation**: US inflation increased slightly and was generally moderate. In September, the CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core inflation rate increased by 0.2% month - on - month. The PCE price index was in line with expectations, which further promoted the Fed's interest rate cut in December [19]. - **Employment**: The US labor market cooled down. The unemployment rate rose from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% in September. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000 in November, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability continued to increase [25]. (2) Domestic - **Social financing and price levels**: - **Social financing**: The growth rate of China's social financing scale slowed down in the second half of 2025. From January to October, the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.9 trillion yuan, but the increment in October was the lowest since August 2024. The M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating a decline in the willingness of enterprises and residents to consume and invest [26]. - **Inflation**: The improvement of China's CPI was still moderate. In October, CPI turned positive year - on - year, mainly driven by food, service, and gold prices. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year, and the year - on - year decline narrowed [28]. - **Economic growth**: In 2025, China's economic growth faced mild downward pressure due to insufficient domestic demand and overseas tariff policies. The manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, but the service industry was generally expanding. From January to October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The economic growth pressure was more prominent in the fourth quarter, but the full - year 5% growth target could still be achieved [30][31]. - **Policy**: China proposed "strengthening unconventional counter - cyclical regulation" this year. In May, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions provided guidance for future economic development. In 2026, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policies are expected to be more proactive to ensure a stable economic start [34][35]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **Copper mines**: - **Overseas mine disruptions**: In 2025, global copper mine accidents frequently occurred, such as the Kakula mine earthquake in Congo, the El Teniente mine collapse in Chile, and the Grasberg mine mudslide in Indonesia. The ICSG lowered the mine supply growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%. The global copper concentrate supply increment was less than expected, and the copper concentrate TC was at a historical low [36][38]. - **Domestic imports and inventory**: From January to October, China imported 22.684 million tons of copper ore, a year - on - year increase of 7.58%. As of November 28, the copper concentrate port inventory was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.14%, indicating a tight supply [39]. - **Electrolytic copper**: - **Global production**: Some large mining companies lowered their copper production targets due to mine accidents. The ICSG predicted a 150,000 - ton global copper supply shortage in 2026. Global new smelting capacity exceeded copper ore supply, and some overseas smelters stopped production due to various reasons [40][42]. - **Domestic production**: From January to November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11.76% year - on - year. However, since September, production has decreased month - on - month due to raw material shortages and smelter overhauls. The price increase of by - product sulfuric acid alleviated the smelting pressure [43]. - **Recycled copper**: - **Import**: China's recycled copper imports were stable. Although imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, imports from Southeast Asia and other regions increased. The country's policies support the development of the recycled copper industry, and the demand for recycled copper imports is expected to be stable in 2026 [45][47]. - **Downstream industry**: The operating rate of recycled copper rods was at a low level. Factors such as tight supply of recycled copper raw materials, weak downstream orders, and policy uncertainties led to a low operating rate [48]. - **Imports and exports**: - **Imports**: China is a net importer of electrolytic copper. In 2025, the import profit window was mostly closed. From January to October, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.34% year - on - year [49][51]. - **Exports**: The export window opened in June, and the export volume increased significantly in October. From January to October, the cumulative export of electrolytic copper increased by 29.44% year - on - year [51]. (2) Demand Side - **New energy and power investment**: - **New energy installation**: As of October, the total installed power generation capacity in China increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The "抢装潮" in the first half of the year affected the new installation volume in the second half, but the annual new installation volume of photovoltaic and wind power still increased steadily. The new installation scale of new energy is expected to reach a new high during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [55][56]. - **Grid investment**: The grid investment scale reached a new high this year, driving copper demand. The investment in the power grid and energy storage is expected to increase during the 15th Five - Year Plan period to support the development of new energy [57]. - **Real estate**: The real estate market was at the bottom - grinding stage. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales area all decreased year - on - year. Although the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions aim to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market, the market's recovery still depends on subsequent policies [59][60]. - **Automobiles**: - **Domestic market**: From January to October, China's automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales maintained high growth. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been above 50% since March [64][65]. - **Global market**: Global new energy vehicle sales increased steadily. China is the world's largest exporter of new energy vehicles, but exports may be restricted by tariffs in 2026. With policy support, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to remain high in 2026 [67][68]. - **Home appliances**: The "two - new" policies promoted the stable growth of home appliance production and sales. Since the second quarter of 2025, the domestic home appliance market has seen a trend of strong domestic sales and weak exports. Although the policy effectiveness has declined, the production and sales growth of home appliances is expected to remain stable in 2026 with the continuous strengthening of consumption - boosting policies [69][72]. 4. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - **Domestic inventory**: Since March 2025, domestic copper inventory has been decreasing. Although there was a slight increase in inventory in the second half of the year due to high copper prices, the inventory decreased again with the price correction. As of December 5, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory and domestic copper social inventory were at low levels in recent years [73]. - **Overseas inventory**: Overseas copper smelting capacity shrank due to tight copper concentrate supply and negative processing fees. The LME inventory decreased, and the COMEX inventory increased. The global visible inventory decreased, but it increased in the second half of the year due to the opening of the LME - COMEX arbitrage window [73][74]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The global refined copper production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down year by year. There were regional shortages and supply - demand mismatches in overseas copper. The supply - demand balance of domestic refined copper is expected to show that consumption growth is higher than production capacity release [76]. 5. 2026 Outlook - **Macro factors**: The easing of Sino - US trade frictions is positive, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, which is beneficial to copper prices. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm in 2026 and the potential impact of the US's additional tariffs on refined copper [78]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper mines is expected to be tighter in 2026. The ICSG predicts a 150,000 - ton supply shortage. The copper concentrate TC is at a historical low, and the long - term contract copper supply premium of Codelco has increased significantly. Under the influence of raw material shortages and anti - involution measures, refined copper production may shrink [79][80]. - **Demand**: The demand for copper is expected to grow steadily. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on new energy, power, and AI data center construction, which will drive copper demand. Policies to promote consumption will also boost the production and sales of new energy vehicles and home appliances [81]. - **Price trend**: Copper prices are expected to have strong upward momentum, but may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting due to the suppression of downstream demand by high prices [82].