Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to limited upside and downside space, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors like tariff hikes, the decline of photovoltaic installations, and the arrival of the off - season [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but are likely to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of June 5, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Tariff issues add negative sentiment. The upstream copper concentrate market is quiet, and the TC price is stable. The Kankola mine earthquake may impact supply. Downstream demand is average, and post - holiday copper price upside is limited, but so is the downside [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 5, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract closed at 20,010 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The Guinea AXIS mine is restricted, and its impact on imports will be seen in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is also rising. Demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][3]. - **Nickel**: As of June 5, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract closed at 121,570 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The Indonesian nickel ore market is tight, but downstream demand is weak, and the overall situation is one of supply surplus, with prices expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Tin**: As of June 5, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract closed at 258,900 yuan/ton, up 1.47%. The price rebounded due to slower - than - expected resumption in Myanmar. Supply is improving but limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [5]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market was quiet with low demand and limited future demand growth [6]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum prices fell, and the market was bearish. Sellers accelerated sales, and demand was mainly for basic needs, resulting in light trading [7]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices were stable, and the market was moderately active, with limited demand growth [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, and the market was quiet, with high premiums supporting sellers [9][10]. - **Lead**: Spot lead prices rose, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with high discounts for sellers [10][11]. - **Nickel**: Spot nickel prices fell, and downstream buyers were cautious, leading to low trading activity [12][13]. - **Tin**: Spot tin prices rose, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc futures warehouse receipts increased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **LME**: Copper, tin, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while lead and zinc inventories increased [16].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡回落 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，关注美国国债是否崩盘违约，二是 美盘 CFTC 持仓本周净空上升至 2.92 万手，利空继续，三是其他国 家对等关税 3 个月豁免期快临近，5 月 28 日美国联邦贸易法院裁决 阻止了特朗普对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，市场对特 朗普的态度表示会反复，不确定性较大。基本面来看，国内目前供需形 势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑， 所以现货基差偏强，棉花短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口 受阻的形势下，棉花整体表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概 率增大，新疆丰产，预计产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨， 美国干旱指数出现拐点向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量 跟与去年保持持平。消费端，关注关税及美联储降息政策出台，整体不 确定性较大。短中期来看，进入 6、7 月为对等关税谈判密集期，市 场偏谨慎，预期反弹基本结束，价格倾向于逐步回落。仓单集中在 09 合约，有很多升水较高 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is facing weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory, with a low valuation and weak driving force, expected to oscillate weakly. The caustic soda market shows a strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term tight supply in some areas and a likely peak in spot prices, and a mid - term weakening trend. The styrene market has a high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply and demand, suggesting short - selling at high prices. The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The urea market has an oversupply situation, and it's not advisable to bottom - fish during a unilateral decline. The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with relatively loose supply and increased downstream olefin开工率. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The soda ash market has limited upward space for the futures price despite short - term sentiment improvement [2][3][5]. Summary by Product PVC - **Price**: On June 5, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4747 yuan/ton (- 87), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Long - term demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, exports are restricted, and supply pressure is high in the third quarter. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is mainly driven by the macro - environment [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 4800 yuan/ton line. Stimulus policies may support the price, while trade frictions may pressure it [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price**: On June 5, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (- 35), with different market prices in Shandong [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has high - level production and new capacity expectations, and there will be a production decline during mid - June due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry has uncertain复产 expectations, and non - aluminum demand is affected by tariffs [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term local supply may be tight, but the spot price is likely to peak. In the mid - term, it will oscillate weakly, and short - selling is recommended for the 09 contract, with a focus on the 2400 yuan/ton line [3]. Styrene - **Price**: On June 5, the styrene main contract was 7085 (- 5) yuan/ton, with different raw material prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Crude oil has short - term support and mid - term loose supply expectations. Pure benzene supply is increasing, and styrene supply is expected to recover in June. Downstream demand is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: High valuation and loose supply - demand, recommend short - selling at high prices, with a focus on the 7200 yuan/ton line [5]. Rubber - **Price and Inventory**: On June 5, the rubber market oscillated slightly. As of June 1, inventory in Qingdao decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization declined [6]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, depending on macro - news and sentiment [6]. Urea - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The urea 09 contract fell 2.88% to 1722 yuan/ton, with a strong basis. Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and some industries is limited [7]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It's not advisable to bottom - fish during a decline, and the 09 contract is expected to operate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The methanol 09 contract rose 0.49% to 2259 yuan/ton. Supply is relatively loose, and the downstream olefin开工率 increased, while traditional demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract operating between 2150 - 2300 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin - **Price and Supply - Demand**: On June 5, the L and PP main contracts had different price changes. Supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with a certain inventory reduction trend [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the L2509 operating between 6950 - 7350 yuan/ton and the PP2509 between 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton [10]. Soda Ash - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The futures price rebounded at night, and the spot market is weak. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand from glass industries is poor [11]. - **Outlook**: Limited upward space for the futures price, and a short recommendation for the 01 contract [11].

简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3100 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 141（-5）。基本面方面，根据钢联 统计口径，螺纹钢表需环比下滑，可能有端午假期影响，不过需求季节 性走弱只是时间问题，当下长流程钢厂利润尚好、短流程利润不佳，螺 纹产量连续两周下滑，本期库存去化放缓，整体而言供需相对均衡，后 期可能小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至 长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，近期国内 出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松，短期 在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者短线交易为主。(数 据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面震荡运行。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判对矿价 有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 728 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 95.65 美元/吨（-0.70），月均 95.91 美元/吨。PBF 基差 68 元/吨（- 2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,830.6 万吨，环+101.5。45 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index**: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - **Iron Ore**: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - **Rubber**: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - **Corn**: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - **Oils**: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]

长江期货PTA月报 终端订单不佳，聚酯或将转弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-6-5 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 02 供应方面：减产降负，供需转好 03 需求方面：聚酯尚可，终端承压 04 逻辑与展望：终端不佳，供需转弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 01 行情回顾-5月PTA先跌后反弹 n 5月PTA期货主力合约期价先反弹后震荡，主要受国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，中美日内 瓦谈判传来利好，90天关税暂缓极大的提振过国内大宗商品情绪，4月跌幅最深的聚酯系开始反弹， PTA跟涨；而后，供应方面PX-PTA装置了轮番检修，PXN与PTA加工费开始恢复，而现货基差也达 到年内高点；中旬，由于聚酯原料PTA价格持续走高，下游聚酯企业加工利润下滑，少部分品种开始 亏损，对高价原料接受度不高 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.53%至 78200 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.68%至 20075 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the disk facing pressure at the 4800 level. The market is influenced by weak costs, demand, high production, and inventory, but may be supported by unexpected domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectations. In June, the spot supply - demand may be locally tight, but in the medium - term, it will likely oscillate weakly, with the 09 contract being mainly short - sold at high levels, and facing pressure at the 2400 level [3]. - The styrene market has a relatively high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the main contract facing pressure at the 7200 level [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to macro - level news and sentiment [6]. - The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It may rebound to a limited extent due to the recent coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1730 - 1850 [7]. - The methanol market has a relatively abundant supply. It may rebound to some extent following the coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. The L2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 6950 - 7350, and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6850 - 7200 [9][10]. - The soda ash market has a short - term upward movement in the futures price due to market sentiment, but the spot is weak, and the upward space of the disk is limited. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11]. Summary by Product PVC - On June 4, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4834 yuan/ton (+89), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions, and the supply pressure is large in the third quarter. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 4, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2367 yuan/ton (-4). The supply has good profits and high - level operation, with some new device production expected. There will be concentrated maintenance in June, and the demand has mixed signals, with the 09 contract facing pressure at 2400 [3]. Styrene - On June 4, the styrene main contract was at 7090 (+72) yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall valuation is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. Rubber - On June 4, the three rubber disks rebounded. The raw material price decline is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate has declined [6]. Urea - The urea 09 contract closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with the spot price in Henan rising. The supply is high, the agricultural demand has some potential, and the industrial demand is mixed. The inventory has increased, and it may rebound within a limited range [7]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 2.39% to close at 2270 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, the cost - profit situation is stable, the demand from the olefin industry is improving, while the traditional demand is weak. The inventory has increased, and it may follow the coal price to rebound [8]. Polyolefin - On June 4, the L main contract rose 1.24% to 7049 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract rose 0.93% to 6948 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will increase in the future, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a certain downward trend. The market is expected to oscillate widely [9][10]. Soda Ash - The futures price of soda ash rose to narrow the basis due to market sentiment, while the spot market is weak. The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11].

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...