1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the off - season. The number of urea maintenance units has increased, and the daily output has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level year - on - year. Agricultural fertilizer demand is weakening, mainly for reserve purchases. The increase in raw material replenishment of compound fertilizers supports urea demand. Port inventory has decreased, and registered warehouse receipts have increased significantly. Urea enterprise inventory has been destocking for nearly two months, but the destocking rate has slowed down recently. Although off - season storage and exports ease the short - term supply pressure, the medium - and long - term supply pressure still exists [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price was first weak and then strong. On December 19, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1697 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a maximum of 1720 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1666 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1676 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.36% increase [2][3]. - The main urea basis weakened. On December 19, the main basis in the Henan market was - 21 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis ranged from (- 42) to 27 yuan/ton [2][7]. - The urea 1 - 5 spread was first strong and then weak. On December 19, the 1 - 5 spread was - 45 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was from (- 52) to (- 37) yuan/ton [2][8]. Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 82.69%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 57.69%, a decrease of 5.69 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily urea output was 19.51 tons. Some devices in Yunnan, Jilin, Henan, Anhui, Hubei, etc. were under maintenance or reduced production, while some devices in Xinjiang and Yunnan resumed production. The operation of gas - made urea devices decreased significantly, and some devices still had maintenance expectations, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in urea supply [2][10]. Cost - The anthracite market continued to operate weakly. As of December 18, the tax - included price of smokeless washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 870 - 940 yuan/ton, and the closing price center of gravity was down 15 yuan/ton from the same period last week [2][14]. Demand - The average advance collection of major urea producers was 5.8 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 99%. In terms of agricultural demand, it is mainly for reserve purchases. In terms of industrial demand, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer increased slightly, and the operating load rate of melamine decreased. Overall, production and sales were relatively stable [15][16]. - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.54 tons, an increase of 1.8 tons from the previous week. Winter storage was shipped in an orderly manner, and fertilizer enterprises adjusted their production starts flexibly. Production and sales in Northeast China were good, and the production start of fertilizer enterprises increased [2][20]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 60.77%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 3.135 tons. Some enterprises had short - term shutdowns and then resumed production, and some enterprises had production load reductions. Next week, some enterprises still have shutdown and overhaul plans, while some short - term shutdown and maintenance equipment will gradually resume production. It is expected that the overall operating load rate of domestic melamine enterprises will remain above 60% and fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores increased, and the demand support in the panel market increased [23]. Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 97.9 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons from the previous week. Urea port inventory was 23.3 tons, a decrease of 8.7 tons from the previous week. There were 10,976 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 21.952 tons, a decrease of 320 receipts from the previous week, totaling 0.64 tons [2][26]. Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Stock Index Conference Disturbance Subsides, Bond Market May Oscillate" - Report Date: December 22, 2025 - Research Institution: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: The competition for the Fed Chair has intensified. Market mainlines rotate rapidly, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market. The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The cross - year funds remain loose, and the capital interest rate is at a low level. The short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened steadily in the loose capital environment, while the long - term yields still fluctuate within the oscillation range formed since November. Before the end of the year, there is no significant negative factor for the bond market, and the upward space for yields is limited. However, the current market is still dominated by trading desks, and the lack of allocation power may lead to short - term trading rhythms. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on whether there is more concentrated allocation power release or more explicit easing signals such as an increase in treasury bond trading volume at the end of the month [11]. - **Economic Data**: The 11 - month manufacturing PMI rebounded weakly from a low level, still below the boom - bust line. In October, CPI and PPI both rebounded year - on - year and month - on - month. Exports declined year - on - year, industrial added value and fixed - asset investment growth rates decreased, social retail growth slowed down, and new social financing decreased year - on - year [18][21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Stock Index Strategy Recommendations - **Strategy Outlook**: Range oscillation [10]. - **Stock Index Performance Review**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36% to 3890.45 points. All four major stock indices rose, with IC performing relatively the best [10]. - **Core Viewpoints**: The Fed Chair competition is intense. Market mainlines rotate fast, and recent positive and negative conference supports have ended. Stock indices may oscillate, and attention should be paid to the possible pre - New Year market [10]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the market index may oscillate with a slight upward trend [10]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Recommendations - **Treasury Bond Performance Review**: The 30 - year main contract rose 0.22% to 112.660 yuan, the 10 - year main contract rose 0.10% to 108.150 yuan, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.09% to 105.970 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% to 102.490 yuan [11]. - **Core Viewpoints**: Cross - year funds are loose, and the capital interest rate is low. Short - and medium - term bonds have strengthened, and long - term yields fluctuate. There is no significant negative factor for the bond market before the end of the year, but the market is dominated by trading desks. Whether a breakthrough can be achieved depends on end - of - month signals [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may oscillate with a slight upward trend [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Oscillatory operation [11]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking 3.2.1 PMI - In November, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2% from a low level, still below the boom - bust line and lower than the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 49.4%. The rebound was driven by a pulse - like strengthening of external demand, but the rebound was weak due to the decline in the prosperity of large enterprises. The price index was positive, indicating a possible increase in PPI month - on - month. The PMI rebound was weak, with readings significantly lower than the same period in previous years, the spread of contraction pressure, and a long - term downturn [18]. 3.2.2 CPI - In October 2025, the consumer price index increased by 0.2% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month; the producer price index decreased by 2.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month. The rebound was due to seasonal factors, low - base effects, and the "anti - involution" effect [21]. 3.2.3 Exports and Imports - In October 2025, China's exports were $305.35 billion, imports were $215.28 billion, and the trade surplus was $90.07 billion. The year - on - year decline in exports was due to the high - base effect of the same period last year and the weakening of seasonality, as well as the overdraft effect of pre - export [23][24]. 3.2.4 Industrial Added Value - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 4.9%, and the service production index dropped to 4.6%. The year - on - year growth rates of the two production data were below 5% for the first time since September 2024. The weakening of production was related to the high base after policy implementation in September 2024 and the decline in export support [28]. 3.2.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and it is estimated that in October, it decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, the second - lowest growth rate in history except for February 2020. The slowdown in fixed - asset investment was mainly due to the weakening of internal driving forces, with the growth rates of private and public investment both declining. In terms of expenditure directions, only equipment purchases maintained positive growth. The growth rates of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined [31]. 3.2.6 Social Retail - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail dropped to 2.9%, and that of above - quota retail dropped to 1.6%. Consumption maintained positive growth under the high - base environment of last year, with a slight rebound in the two - year compound growth rate compared to September. The downward pressure on the growth rate of optional consumption increased, and the contribution rate of categories related to trade - in to the growth rate of social retail turned negative for the first time since September last year. The early "Double Eleven" on some platforms drove the growth rate of essential consumption to rebound, supporting consumption performance [34]. 3.2.7 Social Financing - In October, new social financing was 0.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 trillion yuan. Government bonds and credit were the main drag factors. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.5%, and the growth rate of credit in the social financing caliber dropped to 6.3%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to decrease by 1.2 trillion yuan year - on - year from November to December. After considering the 500 - billion - yuan government bond quota hedge, it is still expected to drag down social financing by 0.2 percentage points. The new policy - based financial tools were fully launched in October, and it is expected that the supporting financing will continue to improve, offsetting the decline in social financing to some extent [37].

2025-12-22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 长江期货粕类油脂周报 01 02 油脂：报告及基本面偏空，豆棕油比菜油 更弱 豆粕 ：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 目 录 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 01 01 豆粕：成本支撑下，近强远弱格局延续 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止12月19日，华东现货报价3010元/吨，周度下跌60元/吨；M2605合约收盘至2735元/吨，周度下跌35元/吨；基差报价05+280元/ 吨。周度美豆受国内买船尾声及出口销售压力影响，呈现下跌趋势；连盘近月01合约供需持续宽松影响高位回落，但成本支撑下3000元/吨附 近支撑较强；05合约受南美天气良好，丰产预期下价格走势偏弱，整体连盘维持近强远弱格局。 ◆ 供应端：目前市场暂时维持南美2025/26 年度大豆的丰产预期，全球大豆总供应量增幅低于总需求增幅，期末库存及库销比均高位回落，供需 格局略微收紧。全球2025/26年度产量达 ...

2025/12/22 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货贵金属周报 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900 4100 4300 4500 2025-01-02 2025-02-02 2025-03-02 2025-04-02 2025-05-02 2025-06-02 2025-07-02 2025-08-02 2025-09-02 2025-10-02 2025-11-02 2025-12-02 美国11月失业率升至4.6%，上升程度超预期，降息预 期升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4369美元/盎司，周内上涨0.9%，关注上方压力位4430， 下方支撑位4270。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 2021-01-01 2022-01 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the glass industry is "Continue to Weaken" [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The cold repair expectation of 3,600 tons of glass production capacity in mid - to late December has basically failed, strengthening the fundamental pressure of stable supply at the end of the year. With the lack of year - end demand, large capital repayment pressure, and the lack of macro - positive expectations in the real estate sector, the glass futures market is likely to operate weakly at a low level before the Spring Festival, and the near - month contracts will continue to weaken [2] Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - The main logic is based on the market situation, including price fluctuations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. The market's cold repair expectation has failed, and the end - of - year supply is stable while demand is lacking. Technically, the short - side force is increasing, so the glass near - month contracts are expected to continue to weaken [2] - The operation strategy is to expect the glass market to continue to weaken [2][3] 2. Spot Price Review - As of December 19, the 5mm float glass market prices in North China were 1,030 yuan/ton (- 10), in Central China 1,080 yuan/ton (0), and in East China 1,190 yuan/ton (- 10). The weekly changes of 5mm float glass prices for some manufacturers (such as Shahe Anquan, Shahe Great Wall, etc.) showed a downward trend, with a maximum decrease of 20 yuan/ton [8][9] - The glass 01 contract closed at 941 yuan/ton last Friday, up 6 for the week [9] 3. Spread Review - As of December 19, the difference between the soda ash futures price (1,176 yuan) and the glass futures price (1041 yuan) was 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan/ton compared to before [10] - Last Friday, the basis of the glass 05 contract was - 1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton; the 05 - 09 spread was - 97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [14] 4. Profit Situation - For the natural - gas production process, the cost was 1,573 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. For the coal - gas production process, the cost was 1,163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 133 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan/ton. For the petroleum - coke production process, the cost was 1,087 yuan/ton (0 change), and the gross profit was - 7 yuan/ton (0 change) [18] 5. Supply Situation - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 155,105 tons/day (0 change), and there were currently 219 production lines in operation. There were some production line changes in the past, including cold repairs, restarts, new ignitions, and product conversions [20][22] 6. Inventory Situation - As of December 19, the national inventory of 80 glass samples was on the rise (+ 33.1). Specifically, the inventory in North China was 1,045 million weight boxes (+ 40.8), in Central China 685 million weight boxes (+ 1.5), in East China 1,209.3 million weight boxes (- 2.1), in South China 797.3 million weight boxes (- 16.7), in Southwest China 1,197.2 million weight boxes (- 2.5), and the Shahe factory inventory was 350 million weight boxes (32). The Hubei factory inventory was 475 million weight boxes (+ 14) [24][27][30] 7. Production - Sales and Deep - Processing Situation - On December 18, the comprehensive production - sales rate of float glass was 89%, a decrease of 6%. On December 19, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 43.3%, a decrease of 1%. In mid - December, the available days of glass deep - processing orders were 9.7 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [31] 8. Demand from the Automotive Sector - In November, China's automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 95,000 vehicles. The sales volume was 3.429 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 107,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 113,000 vehicles. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in November were 1.321 million vehicles, with a penetration rate of 59.3% [42] 9. Demand from the Real Estate Sector - In November, China's real estate completion area was 45.9293 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; new construction area was 43.9531 million square meters (- 28%); construction area was 31.2717 million square meters (- 42%); and commercial housing sales area was 67.1974 million square meters (- 18%). From December 8 to December 14, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.12 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 13% and a year - on - year decrease of 35%. In November, the real estate development investment was 502.82 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 31% [47] 10. Soda Ash Cost - End: Basis Strengthening - As of last weekend, the mainstream market prices of heavy soda ash were: 1,325 yuan/ton in North China (0 change), 1,250 yuan/ton in East China (0 change), 1,300 yuan/ton in Central China (0 change), and 1,450 yuan/ton in South China (0 change). Last Friday, the soda ash 2605 contract closed at 1,176 yuan/ton (+ 83). The basis of the soda ash Central China 05 contract was 124 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [49][51][53] 11. Soda Ash Cost - End: Cost Decrease - As of last Friday, the ammonia - soda process cost of soda ash enterprises was 1,353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 67 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton; the co - production process cost was 1,781 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The overall soda ash profit was - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton. The market price of synthetic ammonia in Hubei was 2,211 yuan/ton, a decrease of 194 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of wet ammonium chloride in Xuzhou Fengcheng was 300 yuan/ton (0 change) [55][56][57] 12. Soda Ash Cost - End: Inventory Recovery - Last week, domestic soda ash production was 721,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons, including 390,300 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons) and 331,100 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month decrease of 6,500 tons). The loss amount was 150,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons. The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts at the end of last week were 4,532 pieces, a month - on - month decrease of 1,231 pieces. As of December 19, the national in - factory inventory of soda ash was 1.4993 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons [65][66][68] 13. Soda Ash Cost - End: Apparent Demand Decline - Last week, the apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 409,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,000 tons; the apparent demand for light soda ash was 307,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 54,300 tons. The production - sales rate of soda ash last week was 99.31%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.71%. The inventory days of soda ash were 24.1 days [74][80]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium to long term; Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to be sold on rallies [1][8][10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; Aluminum is advised to be observed more closely; Nickel is recommended to be observed or sold on rallies; Silver is suggested to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; Lithium carbonate is expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [1][11][12][18]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; Caustic soda and soda ash are advised to be observed temporarily; Polyolefins are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][19][22][25]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation; PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner; Apples and jujubes are expected to be in a relatively weak oscillation [1][29][30][31]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: For live pigs, short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution; Eggs are expected to have limited upside; Corn is advised to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term and hedged on rallies by grain holders; For soybean meal, short - term contracts are to be treated strongly on dips, and long - term contracts are to be treated weakly; Oils are recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [1][31][33][36]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the impact of factors such as international political situations, central bank policies, and industry supply - demand changes on different futures markets, and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][5][8]. Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as the Fed Chair competition, central bank policies, and international political situations, the market's main line rotates quickly. After the recent support from both positive and negative meetings ends, index futures are expected to trade in a range. In the medium to long term, they are bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Considering factors like the capital market meeting and the upcoming release of the loan prime rate, if the ultra - long - term yield does not reach a new high and the capital rate remains stable, the short - and medium - term rates may stabilize. Treasury bonds are expected to trade in a range [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is in a game between strong bearish realities and weak marginal support. With high inventory of imported Mongolian coal, weak demand from downstream steel mills, and potential support from domestic coal mine production cuts and cost lines, short - term trading is recommended, mainly using range - right - side trading [8]. - **Rebar**: After the important meetings, the market enters a policy vacuum period. Although there is a weakening expectation for steel exports, the current supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices have limited upside and downside, and range trading is recommended [8]. - **Glass**: With factors such as the increase in raw material prices, weak demand from downstream processing plants, and the failure of the expected cold - repair of production capacity, the glass market is under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies, and the near - term contracts are expected to continue to weaken [10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The global copper concentrate supply is still tight, but factors such as year - end capital shortages and high copper prices suppressing spot purchases limit the upside. Copper prices are expected to trade in a high - level range, with the main contract of Shanghai copper expected to trade between 89,500 - 95,000 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: With the increase in production capacity, the entry into the demand off - season, and the high - level volatility of aluminum prices suppressing demand, it is recommended to reduce long positions or observe [12]. - **Nickel**: Due to the possible loosening of nickel ore supply and the surplus pattern of refined nickel, it is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: With the tight supply of tin ore and the weak consumption of downstream consumer electronics and photovoltaics, tin prices are expected to continue to be in a relatively strong oscillation [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to factors such as the increase in the US unemployment rate, the Fed's interest rate cut, and concerns about the US economy, the medium - term price centers of silver and gold are expected to rise. For silver, hold long positions and be cautious about new positions; for gold, use range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With strong downstream demand and the continuation of the de - stocking trend, and considering the risks of mining certificates in Yichun, lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high开工, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export growth, PVC is expected to continue to trade in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to macro data, policies, and cost factors [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high inventory and the possible impact of alumina production cuts, it is recommended to observe temporarily and pay attention to the procurement volume of downstream industries and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [21]. - **Styrene**: Due to factors such as the accumulation of US gasoline inventory and the reduction of pure benzene demand, and the limited rebound space after the increase in factory load, styrene is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [22]. - **Rubber**: With the high price of overseas raw materials and the large accumulation of domestic inventory, rubber prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the operating rate of tire enterprises [23]. - **Urea**: With the increase in maintenance devices and the decrease in daily output, but still high in the long - term, and the weakening of agricultural demand and the increase in supply pressure in the long - term, urea prices are expected to be in a weak oscillation [24]. - **Methanol**: With the recovery of domestic supply, the high - level and narrow - range fluctuation of the downstream methanol - to - olefins operating rate, and the weak traditional demand, the inventory of enterprises and ports shows different trends. Attention should be paid to the impact of the situation in Iran on methanol prices [25]. - **Polyolefins**: With the weakening of PE demand and the relatively stable PP supply and demand, polyolefins are expected to be in a weak oscillation. The PE main contract is expected to be in a weak oscillation, and the PP main contract is expected to trade in a range [25][26]. - **Soda Ash**: With the oversupply situation and the increase in production costs, and the mitigation of the supply - demand contradiction after the reduction of supply, it is recommended to observe temporarily [27]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed slightly. With the stable consumption of new cotton and the policy expectation of the planting area in Xinjiang, the prices are expected to be in a relatively strong oscillation [29]. - **PTA**: Due to the uncertainty of the international oil situation and the OPEC+ production - suspension decision, the price of PTA has increased. With the continuation of de - stocking, PTA is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, and the short - term range of 4,600 - 4,900 yuan/ton should be focused on [29][30]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With the stable price of stored apples and the slow progress of jujube acquisition and the slight loosening of prices, both are expected to be in a weak oscillation [30][31]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the demand is boosted by the winter solstice pickling, but the supply pressure is still high. In the long term, although the production capacity is being reduced, it is still above the equilibrium level. Short - term contracts are recommended to be sold on rallies, and long - term contracts should be bullish with caution [31][33]. - **Eggs**: Currently, the supply is sufficient, but the supply pressure is gradually weakening. In the long term, the supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to wait for rallies to hedge for short - term contracts, and pay attention to factors such as chicken culling and external policies [33][34]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price may be under pressure due to the increase in grain sales. In the long term, although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, and the upside is limited. Grain holders can hedge on rallies [35]. - **Soybean Meal**: The near - term contracts are supported by cost and de - stocking expectations, while the long - term contracts are affected by the expected high yield in South America and cost reduction. Range trading is recommended, and spot enterprises can fix prices on dips [36]. - **Oils**: Due to factors such as the poor demand for US soybeans, the expected high yield in South America, and the improvement of the domestic supply situation, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about short - chasing [36][37][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton textile industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [3] Core Viewpoints - Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish in the near term due to a balanced supply - demand pattern and potential changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy in the new year. The spot market for Xinjiang cotton is strong, and yarn - end procurement is proceeding as usual [6]. - The cotton yarn market is under pressure, with many inland textile enterprises facing cash - flow losses. The industry needs to continue monitoring the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. Section Summaries 01. Weekly Summary - Cotton: Futures and spot prices are oscillating upwards. The supply - demand pattern shows both supply and demand increasing, with no prominent contradictions. There are expectations of significant changes in Xinjiang's cotton planting policy, which may reduce output. The Xinjiang cotton spot market is strong, and yarn - end procurement is steady. Cotton prices are expected to be oscillating bullish [6]. - Cotton Yarn: Many inland textile enterprises face cash - flow losses. Although Xinjiang's textile enterprises maintain high operating loads, the industry as a whole is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton futures and downstream restocking [6]. 02. Market Review - Cotton: The domestic cotton market has limited changes. Supply pressure is not significant, and the demand for cotton raw materials from spinning enterprises is resilient. The upper half of the week saw good procurement, which weakened in the lower half. Spot prices rose, and the basis of some high - basis contracts was adjusted downwards [9]. - Cotton Yarn: The overall trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is weak, with few new orders. Prices are temporarily stable after the previous increase, but most downstream customers are reluctant to accept the price hikes. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintain high operating rates, while inland ones continue to decline [9]. 03. International Macroeconomics - The report presents a series of economic data from the US and the Eurozone, including manufacturing PMI, employment, GDP, CPI, and interest rates, which can impact the cotton market through currency exchange rates and global economic demand [11]. 04. Domestic Macroeconomics - Key domestic economic data such as foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2 money supply, social financing scale, and fixed - asset investment are provided, which can influence the domestic cotton textile industry [13]. 05. Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - According to the USDA's December report, the global cotton output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both adjusted downwards, while the ending inventory increases slightly due to an increase in the beginning inventory. The main adjustment is in the US, while other countries' production and consumption data remain relatively stable [16]. - In China, the total supply in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 260,000 tons to 1.504 million tons, mainly due to an increase in production. The total demand is expected to increase by 130,000 tons to 858,000 tons, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory by 130,000 tons to 646,000 tons [20]. 07. US Cotton Exports - As of November 20, 2025, the US has cumulatively signed contracts to export 1.306 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, reaching 49.16% of the expected annual export volume, and has shipped 520,000 tons, with a shipping rate of 39.80%. China has signed contracts to import 39,000 tons, accounting for 2.98% of the signed volume, and has shipped 15,000 tons [23]. 08. Industrial and Commercial Inventories Start to Increase - As of the end of November, the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises increased steadily, reaching 939,600 tons. The commercial inventory of cotton in China reached 4.6836 million tons, a significant increase from the previous month and slightly higher than the same period last year [26]. 09. November Cotton and Cotton Yarn Imports Both Increase - In November 2025, China's cotton imports were 120,000 tons, a 34.4% increase from the previous month and a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. Cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a 25% increase from the same period last year and a 7.14% increase from the previous month [29]. 10. November Cotton Yarn Production Increases Year - on - Year and Month - on - Month - In November, the sales of pure - cotton yarn were relatively good in the first half but weakened in the second half. The comprehensive operating rate of pure - cotton spinning enterprises was stable. The estimated output of pure - cotton yarn in November was 493,000 tons, a 12.9% increase from the same period last year and a 3.7% increase from the previous month [30]. 11. US Cotton Growth - As of September 28, the boll - opening rate of US cotton was 67%, 4 percentage points slower than last year and 2 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The harvest rate was 16%, the same as the five - year average but 3 percentage points slower than last year. The good - quality rate was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [36]. 12. US Cotton Weather - As of the week of November 15, 2025, the average temperature and precipitation in the US cotton - growing areas and Texas were significantly lower than the previous year. Since the harvest is in the middle - to - late stage, the dry weather has limited impact [40]. 13. Xinjiang Cotton Inspection - As of December 18, 2025, 1,083 cotton processing enterprises in China have processed and inspected 25,039,991 bales of cotton, weighing 5.6524 million tons [42]. 14. Textile Industry Inventory - In October, the inventory of the textile industry was 406.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 0.8 billion yuan and a year - on - year increase of 38 billion yuan. The inventory of textile products was 218 billion yuan, with corresponding increases of 6 billion and 16 billion yuan. The inventory of textile and clothing decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. 15. Domestic Demand Remains Strong - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.3898 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year - on - year increase. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 154.2 billion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [50]. 16. External Demand Exports Weaken - In November 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a 5.12% year - on - year decrease. Textile exports increased by 1.03% year - on - year, while clothing exports decreased by 10.86% year - on - year [53]. 17. US Clothing and Apparel Retail Sales in September 2025 - In September 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales (seasonally adjusted) were 27.043 billion US dollars, a 6.65% year - on - year increase but a 0.72% month - on - month decrease. Retailer inventories decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio also declined [58]. 18. US Textile and Apparel Imports in September 2025 - In September 2025, US textile and clothing imports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month in terms of volume, while the import amount decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. Cotton product imports showed a slight decrease in volume year - on - year but an increase in amount month - on - month [62]. 19. Warehouse Receipts Continue to Decrease - As of December 18, the number of warehouse receipts was 3,619, with 3,924 valid forecasts, a total of 7,543, an increase of 612 from the previous week [64]. 20. Non - Commercial Long Positions Decrease - As of December 2, the net long positions of non - commercial futures and options in the ICE cotton futures market increased by 2,444, and the net long positions of non - commercial futures alone increased by 2,707. The net long positions of commodity index funds decreased by 479 [68]. 21. Load Changes - As of December 19, the load index of pure - cotton spinning mills, human - made cotton yarn mills, and pure - polyester yarn mills all decreased, indicating a weakening trend in the yarn and fabric loads [71]. 22. Industrial Chain Inventory - Textile enterprises' cotton inventory increased by 0.9 days compared to last week, cotton yarn inventory remained flat, and the inventory of pure - cotton grey fabric increased by 0.5 days. Inventory is starting to accumulate as the consumption season enters a slow period [74]. 23. Industrial Chain Profit - This week, the sales situation in Xinjiang and inland areas differed significantly. Xinjiang's spinning enterprises had better sales, while inland ones slowed down. The narrowing of the cotton - yarn price spread due to the increase in Zhengzhou cotton futures has put pressure on spinning enterprises, leading to a decrease in the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises [79].

长江期货鲜果周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-12-19 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 震荡偏弱 目 录 01 苹果：震荡偏弱 02 红枣：震荡偏弱 01 苹果：震荡偏弱 01 周度观点 1 整体观点：本周晚富士苹果产区成交氛围依旧维持清淡态势，客商对果农货调货积极性下降，多包装前期订购货源及 自存货源发货为主，果农货源多以低价货源走货居多。价格来看，好货维持稳定，价格表现坚挺，果农一般及以下质 量统货价格出现松动。销区市场走货仍显清，同比去年同期走货量有所减少，砂糖橘及其他柑橘类水果对苹果销售形 成冲击。销区市场仍处淡季，交易氛围仍显清淡，柑橘类水果上市量增加，挤压苹果销售空间。（数据来源：上海钢 联） 2 风险因素：市场消费情况、宏观政策因素 Ø 本周苹果主力震荡偏弱。 Ø 苹果基差-34元，较上周+479。 03 苹果批发市场价格走势 02 行情回顾 数据来源：博易大师、IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、中果网、长江期货 Ø 截止2025年12月12日，全 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 18 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 逢高减仓，低位企稳后回补 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | ...