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有色金属日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 02:56
有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜: 截至 5 月 21 日收盘,沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 0.31%至 78100 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和,叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳,同时美国 通胀降温,美联储降息概率加大,整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖,对铜价 有所提振。基本面,铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落,创历史新低,但下跌速 度放缓,短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行,持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈,下游订单新增相对有限,消费提升空间不 大,5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑,虽好于去年同期,但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡,库存低位累库,对铜价的支撑作用减弱,现货升 水或将承压。整体来看,宏观偏好,而基本面有所转弱,沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝: 截至 5 月 21 日收盘,沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.65%至 20190 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级,AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域,禁止开采,推动氧化铝大涨,后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨,全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨,周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:35
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势,4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨,工业库存 95 万吨, 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话,到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨, 去年同期是 214 万吨,23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨,显 然今年比 23 年还紧张(紧张的原因,配额、进口棉少了,月消费量并 不低,新疆上了很多产能),今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因,棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的,涨跌还得看基本面形势,这是本年度的供应形 势,09 合约偏强,短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约,新棉, 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大,新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩,去年种植 番茄其他作物,应该都改种棉花,所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨,新 年度供应或宽松了些,因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100,中美贸易战缓和,5、6 月国内会抢出口的,6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子,是中美蜜月期,所以后面认为还会上 涨,但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎,主要是原因是,此时又怕中美谈判不 顺,会反复,届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看,远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...
长江期货黑色产业日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:19
黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三,螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行,杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨,较 前一日持平,10 合约基差 139(-2)。宏观方面,中美会谈成果超预期, 双方大幅互降关税,国内货币政策利多已经落地,不过市场仍在期待财 政政策发力;产业方面,上周螺纹钢表需大幅回升,库存再度去化,但是 需求即将面临季节性走弱压力,当下钢厂利润尚好,主动减产意愿不足, 后期供需矛盾会逐步显现。后市而言:估值方面,目前螺纹钢期货价格 低于电炉谷电成本,静态估值处于偏低水平;驱动方面,政策端,中美贸 易环境改善,近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小,产业端,现 实供需尚可,但需求即将环比转弱,短期在低估值背景下,预计价格震 荡运行。(数据来源:同花顺 iFinD,Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三,铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响,价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面,青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨(+2)。普氏 62% 指数 100.15 美元/吨(+0.05),月均 99.9 美元/吨。PBF 基差 81 元/ 吨(-1)。供给端:最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706.10 万吨,环+ ...
饲料养殖产业日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:18
Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the short - and long - term due to supply - demand imbalances. Egg prices are also under pressure because of high supply. The oil market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the second quarter before rebounding in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is expected to be low - level volatile, while the medium - and long - term trend is expected to be stable and upward. Corn prices are expected to be stable and upward in the long - term but with limited upside space [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Category Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15 - 15.5 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the supply pressure is accumulating. Although the short - term supply pressure is released, the long - term supply is expected to increase from May to September 2024. The demand is weak, and the supply - demand game intensifies [1]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the pig price fluctuates frequently. In the long - term, there is a risk of price decline. The forward price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy at the resistance level. The resistance and support levels for the 07 contract are 13700 - 13800 and 13000 - 13100 respectively, and for the 09 contract are 14000 - 14200 and 13300 - 13400 respectively. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.9 yuan/jin (down 0.2 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.3 yuan/jin (stable) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand may increase, but supply is continuously accumulating. The high supply situation is not alleviated [2]. - **Price Trend**: The short - term price is under pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for the 06 contract. Adopt a short - selling strategy for the 08 and 09 contracts when the price rebounds, and pay attention to the resistance level of 3750 - 3800 for the 08 contract [2]. Oil Palm Oil - **International Market**: On May 21, the Malaysian palm oil 08 contract closed at 3896 ringgit/ton (down 0.36%). The supply and demand are both weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the 08 contract is expected to trade in the range of 3800 - 4000 [2][3][4]. - **Domestic Market**: From May, a large amount of palm oil will arrive in China. The inventory has increased to 35.97 tons and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [4]. Soybean Oil - **International Market**: The US biodiesel policy is negative for soybean oil. The short - term trend of US soybeans is expected to be volatile, and the 07 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1040 - 1050 [5]. - **Domestic Market**: The soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 1 million tons per month. The soybean oil inventory has started to increase to 65.63 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **International Market**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The short - term trend of ICE rapeseed is expected to be volatile and upward [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 87 tons. The supply pressure is high in the short - term. If the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Overall Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be volatile in the short - term, trading in the ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Adopt a short - selling strategy with caution at high prices. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference between soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil for the 09 contracts [7]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the US soybean 07 contract closed at 1062.75 cents/bushel (up 9.75 cents). The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2934 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2890 yuan/ton [7]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to be volatile, and the domestic spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong [7][8]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase long positions for the 09 contract in the short - term. Adopt a long - buying strategy on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), and the purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton (stable) [8]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, the price is supported. In the long - term, the price has an upward drive, but the upside space is limited [8]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - buying strategy at the lower edge of the range for the 07 contract. Pay attention to the positive spread strategy between the 7 - 9 contracts [8]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (Cents/Bushel) | 1,061.75 | 1,054.25 | 7.50 | | Soybean Meal Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,934 | 2,889 | 45.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/Ton) | 2,880 | 2,880 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (Cents/Bushel) | 460.00 | 454.50 | 5.50 | | Corn Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 2,324 | 2,312 | 12.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (Cents/Pound) | 49.75 | 49.57 | 0.18 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/Ton) | 8,140 | 8,230 | - 90.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/Ton) | 3,896 | 3,910 | - 14.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 8,600 | 8,650 | - 50.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian Dollar/Ton) | 719.60 | 704.40 | 15.20 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/Ton) | 9,450 | 9,400 | 50.00 | | Egg Main Contract (Yuan/500 Kilograms) | 2,959 | 2,964 | - 5.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/Jin) | 3.00 | 3.05 | - 0.05 | | Pig Futures Main Contract (Yuan/Ton) | 13,650 | 13,690 | - 40.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/Kilogram) | 14.60 | 14.60 | 0.00 | [9]
能源化工日报-20250522
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-22 01:18
能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 21 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4969 元/吨(+20),常州市场价 4830 元/吨(0),主力基差-139 元/吨(+30),广州市场价 4890 元/吨(+10), 杭州市场价 4840 元/吨(0)。近期在中美贸易和谈后,宏观情绪有所回 暖,PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期,季节性去库过程中,前期基 差走强给盘面一定的底部支撑。但中长期看,PVC 需求在地产拖累下持 续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,出口以价换量持稳状态,且 出口体量总体占比不大(12%左右),制品出口端关税影响仍存;供应端 有不少新投计划,且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,最近库存去化尚可 但仍然高企。需求不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局,但价格低位,基本 面驱动有限,宏观主导。宏观面,中国将在 90 天内将对美国商品的关税 从 125%降至 10%,美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品的关税从 145%降至 30%, 短期关税缓和超过预期,但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存,继续关注 关税进展。国内一季度数据表现偏好,二季度转出口或有一定支撑,国 内大规模刺激政策短期或难出台 ...
长江期货棉纺策略日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 02:00
棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花:震荡偏强 国内目前供需形势,4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨,工业库存 95 万吨, 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话,到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨, 去年同期是 214 万吨,23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨,显 然今年比 23 年还紧张(紧张的原因,配额、进口棉少了,月消费量并 不低,新疆上了很多产能),今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因,棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的,涨跌还得看基本面形势,这是本年度的供应形 势,09 合约偏强,短中期上涨意愿概率大。但是到了 01 合约,新棉, 目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大,新疆新开垦的地 200 万亩,去年种植 番茄其他作物,应该都改种棉花,所以预计新棉丰产至 750 万吨,新 年度供应或宽松了些,因此棉价涨幅受到限制。目前短中期棉价上涨高 度 14000-14100,中美贸易战缓和,5、6 月国内会抢出口的,6 月 30 日美国国债到期不会出现幺蛾子,是中美蜜月期,所以后面认为还会上 涨,但是到了 7、8 月份要谨慎,主要是原因是,此时又怕中美谈判不 顺,会反复,届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看,远期国内丰产缓解紧 ...
饲料养殖产业日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 02:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply - demand relationships and price trends. Pig prices are under pressure in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand, while egg prices are also pressured by high supply. For oils and fats, the market is in a state of shock, with an expected decline in the second quarter and a potential rebound in the third quarter. The short - term trend of soybean meal is low - level shock, and it is expected to be stable and strong in the medium - long term. Corn prices are expected to be stable and strong, with short - term support and limited upside in the medium - long term due to substitutes [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 15 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 14.9 - 15.4 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In May, the scale enterprise's slaughter plan increased, and the high pig weight led to accumulating supply pressure. Although the Dragon Boat Festival stocking was approaching, the demand was weak due to hot weather and high pig prices. In the medium - long term, the supply from May to September 2024 was increasing, and the slaughter pressure in the second quarter of 2024 - 2025 was still large, with high supply and weak demand [1]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price rebounds to the pressure level. The pressure level for the 07 contract is 13700 - 13800, and the support level is lowered to 13000 - 13100; for the 09 contract, the pressure level is 14000 - 14200, and the support level is 13300 - 13400. Sell out - of - the - money call options for the 09 contract when the price rebounds [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On May 21, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.3 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the low egg price and approaching Dragon Boat Festival may increase demand, but the large new production in May and non - large - scale old chicken culling led to continuous supply accumulation. In the medium - long term, the high replenishment volume from February to April 2025 corresponds to more newly - laying hens from June to August 2025, and the supply is expected to increase [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 06 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish approach and short when the price rebounds. Pay attention to the 3750 - 3800 pressure level for the 08 contract [2]. Oils and Fats - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean oil July contract rose 0.26% to 49.57 cents/lb, following the rise of Malaysian palm oil. The Malaysian palm oil August contract rose 0.67% to 3910 ringgit/ton. Domestic palm oil prices rose 80 - 110 yuan/ton, soybean oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil prices rose 20 - 40 yuan/ton [2][4]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB April report showed an increase in inventory. In May, the export volume increased, but it was in the seasonal production - increasing period. In China, palm oil will arrive in large quantities from May, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 08 contract operating in the 3800 - 4000 range [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The uncertainty of the US biofuel blending policy, the pressure of the South American old - crop soybean listing, and the good sowing progress of the US new - crop soybean dragged down the performance of US soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to be about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory is expected to increase [5]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The ICE rapeseed's short - term rise is limited, and the downside space is also small. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level, but if the supply tightens, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils fluctuate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7700 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Short cautiously when the price rises. Pay long - term attention to the strategy of expanding the price difference of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [7][8]. Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On May 20, the US soybean 07 contract rose 2.25 cents to 1053 cents/bu. The domestic M2509 contract closed at 2889 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2850 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the smooth sowing of US soybeans and the South American bumper harvest suppress the price of US soybeans, and the domestic soybean arrival volume increases. In the medium - long term, the increase in import cost and weather disturbances will drive the domestic soybean meal price to be strong [8]. - **Strategy**: For the 09 contract, reduce short positions in batches. Go long at low prices in the medium - long term, and pay attention to the 2830 support level [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On May 20, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2468 yuan/ton, stable [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short term, the increase in traders' selling willingness and the decrease in grass - roots grain sources support the price. In the medium - long term, the new - crop yield is expected to decrease, and the import is decreasing, but the supply of substitutes limits the upside space [9]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a stable and strong strategy. The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Unit | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two - Day - Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | Cents/bu | 1,054.25 | 1,051.25 | 3.00 | | Soybean Meal Main | Yuan/ton | 2,889 | 2,886 | 3.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | Yuan/ton | 2,880 | 2,920 | - 40.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | Cents/bu | 454.50 | 447.00 | 7.50 | | Corn Main | Yuan/ton | 2,312 | 2,330 | - 18.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | Yuan/ton | 2,310 | 2,310 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | Cents/lb | 49.57 | 49.48 | 0.09 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | Yuan/ton | 8,230 | 8,210 | 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | Ringgit/ton | 3,910 | 3,884 | 26.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 8,650 | 8,570 | 80.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | Canadian dollars/ton | 704.40 | 695.30 | 9.10 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | Yuan/ton | 9,400 | 9,400 | 0.00 | | Egg Main | Yuan/500 kg | 2,964 | 2,938 | 26.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | Yuan/jin | 3.05 | 3.10 | - 0.05 | | Live Pig Futures Main | Yuan/ton | 13,690 | 13,685 | 5.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | Yuan/kg | 14.79 | 14.79 | 0.00 | [10]
有色金属日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:59
有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜: 截至 5 月 20 日收盘,沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.26%至 77540 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和,叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳,同时美国 通胀降温,美联储降息概率加大,整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖,对铜价 有所提振。基本面,铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落,创历史新低,但下跌速 度放缓,短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行,持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈,下游订单新增相对有限,消费提升空间不 大,5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑,虽好于去年同期,但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡,库存低位累库,对铜价的支撑作用减弱,现货升 水或将承压。整体来看,宏观偏好,而基本面有所转弱,沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝: 截至 5 月 20 日收盘,沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 0.45%至 20075 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级,推动氧化铝 价格大涨,但具体影响有待评估。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨 至 8685 万吨,全国氧化铝库存 324.6 万吨,周度环比减少 4.2 万吨。氧 化铝企业检修减产和主动压产仍在继续,市场处 ...
金融期货日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:58
Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Trump's tax - cut bill is in a deadlock, there is infighting within the Republican Party, and there are discussions about international trade agreements. Domestically, the market rotation is fast and there is no main driving force, so the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the A - share market rose moderately on Tuesday, the structural differentiation intensified. The suppression of the bond market by the equity market is limited. The long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection are favored. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited, but the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4] 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.63%, 0.45%, 0.58%, and 0.88% respectively [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year and 5 - year main contracts rose by 0.24% and 0.20% respectively, while the 30 - year and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.03% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows that it may fluctuate and rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3865.40 | 0.63 | 52572 | 150105 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2699.40 | 0.45 | 27980 | 51766 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5650.80 | 0.58 | 45384 | 112947 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6019.40 | 0.88 | 124540 | 184920 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.84 | 0.24 | 76231 | 142998 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.95 | 0.20 | 57849 | 109912 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.26 | - 0.03 | 36232 | 42558 | | 2025 - 05 - 20 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.36 | - 0.03 | 41104 | 94660 | [12]
能源化工日报-20250521
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:52
公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 20 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4949 元/吨(-10),常州市场价 4830 元/吨(-10),主力基差-109 元/吨(0),广州市场价 4880 元/吨(0), 杭州市场价 4840 元/吨(-20)。近期在中美贸易和谈后,宏观情绪有所 回暖,PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期,季节性去库过程中,前期 基差走强给盘面一定的底部支撑。但中长期看,PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,出口以价换量持稳状态, 且出口体量总体占比不大(12%左右),制品出口端关税影响仍存;供应 端有不少新投计划,且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,最近库存去化尚 可但仍然高企。需求不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局,但价格低位,基 本面驱动有限,宏观主导。宏观面,中国将在 90 天内将对美国商品的关 税从 125%降至 10%,美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品的关税从 145%降至 30%,短期关税缓和超过预期,但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存,继续 关注关税进展。国内一季度数据表现偏好,二季度转出口或有一定支撑, 国内大规模刺激政策短期 ...