◆ 基本面分析 几内亚散货矿主流成交价格周度环比下降0.8美元/干吨至72.5美元/干吨。几内亚雨季结束，且氧化铝价格走弱，施压矿价下行。 氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降140万吨至9715万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比增加11.5万吨至401.7万吨。上半年新投产的氧化铝 产能进入稳产状态，但国产矿石供应问题和氧化铝价格低迷的影响下，部分内陆氧化铝企业检修或压产。电解铝运行产能周度环比 下降2万吨至4443.4万吨。山西朔州能源开始对部分电解槽进行停槽技改升级，涉及产能4万吨左右。需求方面，国内铝下游加工 龙头企业开工率周度环比持稳于62.5%。旺季需求表现偏弱，叠加铝价高位，抑制了下游各加工板块开工上升。库存方面，铝锭 社会库存去化幅度较好。再生铸造铝合金方面，废铝流通偏紧、价格高企，而终端需求复苏不及预期，再生铝企业开工率下调。特 朗普关税或是为中美元首10月APEC会晤添加筹码，同时美联储10月降息时点即将来临，在此期间仍然建议逢低布局多单，在关 注关税进展和市场情绪。 ◆ 策略建议 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-10-20 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Since 2020, the annualized hedging costs of stock index futures for the three major stock indices (SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500) have been more significantly affected by stock dividends, especially on the expiration date [2]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures have long been stable around zero, and are slightly higher than the break - even point in most periods. The cost of the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures also fluctuates around zero, and before 2023, it was overall superior to the contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance, showing relatively better cost - return characteristics [2]. - Based on the prediction for the fourth quarter of 2025, under the current market structure, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice for constructing market - neutral strategies [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Introduction - In the practice of the stock market - neutral strategy, although the hedging means of the strategy portfolio have been significantly enriched, stock index futures are still the core hedging tool for constructing market - neutral exposure. The basis structure of stock index futures directly determines the hedging cost of the neutral strategy and affects the final return performance [6]. - The basis of stock index futures can be decomposed into three core driving dimensions: the cost dimension from the time value of funds, the cash - flow dimension from index component stock dividends during the period, and the sentiment and expectation dimension reflecting the balance of market long - and short - side forces. The model is simplified to: Futures price - Index price = Corrected basis - Index dividends during the period [6]. 3.2. Dividend Situations of the Three Major Index Component Stocks 3.2.1. Dividend Point Indices of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend behavior of the three major index component stocks has significant seasonal characteristics, with dividend payments highly concentrated from April to September each year, peaking from June to August, especially from June to July [8][12]. - Compared with the market practice before 2020, in recent years, the phenomenon of the three major index component stocks paying dividends in the fourth quarter has increased. Since 2023, the A - share market dividend pattern has shown three new trends: year - end dividends, postponed dividend dates for some companies, and a deeper impact of dividend behavior on stock index and derivatives pricing [9][12]. 3.2.2. Dividend Yield Situations of the Three Major Stock Indices - The dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices showed a "V - shaped" trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2020 to 2024, which is related to the market adjustment from the end of 2023 to the beginning of 2024. The dividend yield center of the CSI 500 index has shifted down compared with the level before 2020 [13][15]. - The average annual dividend yields of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, representing large - cap blue - chip stocks, are stable in the range of 2% - 3%, while the average dividend yield of the CSI 500 index, representing small - and medium - cap stocks, is relatively low. The dividends from June to July have a significant impact on futures pricing and basis structure [15][16]. 3.3. Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures 3.3.1. Estimation of Historical Data of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures - A simplified model is used to estimate the dividend points of index component stocks and calculate the corrected basis. The annualized hedging costs of the near - month, far - month, near - season, and far - season contracts of the three major stock index futures in the past three years are calculated [18][20]. - The hedging costs of the far - season contracts of SSE 50 and CSI 300 stock index futures are long - term stable around zero and slightly higher than the break - even point, with low historical average hedging costs. Before 2023, the far - season contracts of CSI 500 stock index futures were overall superior to those of SSE 50 and CSI 300 in terms of return performance [20]. - The annualized hedging cost of near - month contracts may show significant peaks, indicating that the basis of stock index futures contracts may fluctuate extremely (deep premium or discount) when approaching the expiration date, which affects the actual cost of roll - over operations and strategy returns [26]. 3.3.2. Prediction of the Performance of Annualized Hedging Costs of the Three Major Stock Index Futures in the Fourth Quarter - From the fourth quarter of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, the impact of dividends on the basis of stock index futures and hedging strategies has weakened. The hedging costs of the current IC and IF main contracts are generally positive, providing a favorable window for market - neutral strategies [27][28]. - Based on the closing data on September 22, 2025, the overall hedging costs of the three major stock index futures are relatively low. After considering dividends, most of the hedging costs of IC and IF contracts are positive, especially for IC near - month and far - month contracts. The hedging costs of IH contracts are relatively high and even negative after considering dividends [29][30]. - Currently, market - neutral strategies using IC or IF futures contracts for hedging have relative advantages. IC near - season main contracts have lower hedging costs, while IF far - season contracts have more obvious cost advantages. IH contracts have relatively low cost - performance. Therefore, preferentially allocating hedging tools represented by IC stock index futures may be a better choice [30][31].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures - medium to long - term bullish, buy on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal - range trading; Rebar - range trading; Glass - hold off [1][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - cautiously hold long positions on dips, avoid chasing highs; Aluminum - wait for a pullback to go long; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - buy on dips; Silver - range trading [1][10][17] - Energy Chemicals: PVC - oscillate weakly; Caustic soda - oscillate; Soda ash - short on 01 contract; Styrene - oscillate weakly; Rubber - oscillate; Urea - oscillate; Methanol - oscillate; Polyolefins - wide - range oscillation [1][22][32] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - oscillate; PTA - oscillate weakly; Apples - oscillate strongly; Jujubes - oscillate strongly [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range oscillation; Soybean meal - range oscillation; Oils - oscillate strongly [1][38][44] Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment strategies for various futures products based on market analysis, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand dynamics, and international trade situations. It also emphasizes the need to pay attention to key events and data such as policy changes, trade negotiations, and inventory levels [5][7][23] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Index futures: On October 16, A - shares fluctuated, with most stocks falling. Trading volume shrank. Before Sino - US negotiations, the index may continue to oscillate. Medium to long - term, it is bullish, and investors can buy on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: Futures are divided. The trading theme may revolve around Sino - US relations. It is recommended to hold off for now [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal and rebar: Coking coal prices are volatile due to rain and weak demand. Rebar prices may be weak first and then strong in October, with a focus on the 3000 level for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: Some companies raised prices slightly, but shipments were restricted. Supply increased, and demand was weak. It is recommended to hold off and focus on production line changes in Shahe [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Global trade tensions and supply disruptions have affected copper prices. Fundamentals are solid, and prices are expected to remain high - level oscillating. It is advisable to hold long positions on dips [10] - Aluminum: Ore prices declined, and production capacity increased slightly. Demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [12] - Nickel: Indonesia's new policy may affect supply. Supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold off or short on rallies [17] - Tin: Supply is tight, and demand is recovering. It is recommended for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18][19] - Gold and silver: Due to factors such as delayed non - farm data and expected interest rate cuts, prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after a full pullback [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: High supply, weak domestic demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract facing pressure at 4800 [23] - Caustic soda: Short - term oscillation, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [24] - Soda ash: Supply is in excess, and prices may decline. Short the 01 contract [32][33] - Styrene: High inventory, weak demand, and expected weak oscillation. Focus on the 6900 resistance level [26] - Rubber: Supply is expected to increase, but raw material prices have a limited downside. It is expected to oscillate, with a focus on the 15000 support level [27][28] - Urea: Supply has increased, and demand is scattered. It is expected to oscillate [29] - Methanol: Supply has recovered, and demand from the main downstream is strong. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate [31] - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the L2601 contract focusing on 6900 support and the PP2601 contract on 6600 support [30][31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Global cotton supply and demand are both increasing, but there is uncertainty between China and the US. It is expected to oscillate with a bearish outlook [34][35] - PTA: Oil prices are weak, and supply - demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the 4350 - 4600 range [35] - Apples: High - quality apples are in high demand, and prices are polarized. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36] - Jujubes: New - season jujubes are about to be harvested. Pay attention to the progress of orchard orders [37] Agricultural and Livestock - Hogs: Supply is high in the short - term, and long - term supply remains under pressure. Short on rallies for 01, 03, 05 contracts; be cautious about bottom - fishing for 07, 09 contracts [38][40] - Eggs: Short - term supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Partially take profit on short positions for the 11 contract; short on rallies for 12, 01 contracts [41][42] - Corn: New crops are coming on the market, and the market is expected to be bearish in the short - term. Look for shorting opportunities on rebounds for the 11 contract [43][44] - Soybean meal: Affected by harvest pressure and slow exports, it is expected to oscillate at low levels [44][45] - Oils: Short - term correction is limited. Look for long - entry opportunities after the correction for 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils [46][51]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 10 月 16 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 建议观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 建议逢低持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 逢低买入 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏强 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - **Rebar**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - **Nickel**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - **Other Chemicals**: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - **PTA**: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - **Apples and Jujubes**: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - **Eggs**: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - **Corn**: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - **Soybean Meal**: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - **Oils**: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are recommended to be bought on dips in the medium - long term; Treasury bonds are advised to be kept under observation [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to be kept under observation [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to be held long on dips; Aluminum is advised to set up long positions on pullbacks; Nickel is recommended to be kept under observation or shorted on rallies; Tin is for range trading; Gold is to be bought on dips; Silver is for range trading [1][11][13][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol are expected to oscillate; Polyolefins are to have wide - range oscillations; Soda ash 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [1][21][23][24][31] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to oscillate; PTA is for narrow - range oscillations; Apples and jujubes are expected to oscillate strongly [1][33][35][36] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are to be shorted on rallies; Eggs are to be shorted on rallies; Corn is for wide - range oscillations; Soybean meal is for low - level oscillations; Oils are expected to have limited pullbacks [1][38][40][44][45][50] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, international trade relations, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal factors. Different industries and varieties have different investment strategies based on their specific situations [5][8][11] Summaries by Categories Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: On October 13, the A - share market opened low and closed high. The market may oscillate, but is optimistic in the medium - long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures rebounded. The bond market may oscillate around the theme of Sino - US game, and it is advisable to keep under observation [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Affected by rainfall and weak demand, the pit - mouth price shows a differentiated trend. There is an expected increase in demand for early heating, and it is for range trading [8] - **Rebar**: The price oscillated down on Monday. The static valuation is low, and the demand in October is to be focused on. It is expected to be weak first and then strong, with a suggestion to go long around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - **Glass**: Some enterprises raised prices slightly, but the shipment was restricted. The supply increased, and the inventory rose. The demand is weak. It is advisable to keep under observation, focusing on the changes in Shahe production lines [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by Sino - US trade relations, the price may have high - level oscillations. The long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic, and it is recommended to hold long on dips [11] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite price declined, the production capacity increased steadily, the demand is in the peak season, and the inventory accumulation is normal. It is advisable to set up long positions on pullbacks [13] - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. The supply is in surplus in the medium - long term. It is recommended to keep under observation or short on rallies [18] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is warming up. It is for range trading, with a reference range of 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 11 contract [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by US economic data and interest - rate cut expectations, they are expected to oscillate. It is advisable to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 pressure [21][22] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is increasing marginally, and it is expected to oscillate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2380 - 2530 range [23][24] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation is not good, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 6600 - 6900 range [24][25] - **Rubber**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price may oscillate, with a focus on the 15,000 support [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, focusing on factors such as compound fertilizer production and exports [28] - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the main downstream is strong, and it is expected to oscillate [30] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The PE 2601 and PP 2601 contracts are expected to oscillate weakly, focusing on the 6900 and 6600 supports respectively [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak after the festival, and the inventory is accumulating. The 01 contract is for a short - selling strategy [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and there is uncertainty in Sino - US relations. The market may oscillate with a bearish expectation [33][34] - **PTA**: The crude oil price is weak, the cost support is insufficient, and the PTA is accumulating inventory. It is for narrow - range oscillations in the 4500 - 4750 range [34][35] - **Apples**: Affected by weather, the supply time of red apples is postponed. The quality is lower, and the price may oscillate strongly [35][36] - **Jujubes**: The sales during the National Day were flat. The new - season jujubes are about to be harvested, and the price may oscillate strongly [36] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is under pressure, and the supply is large in the medium - long term. Different contracts have different strategies, such as reducing short positions for the 11 contract and short - selling for the 01, 03, 05 contracts in the long - term [38][39] - **Eggs**: The demand is weak after the festival, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term price may oscillate at a low level. The 11 - contract short positions can be partially closed, and the 12 and 01 contracts are to wait for rallies to short - sell [40][41][42] - **Corn**: The new corn is on the market, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The demand is weak, and the price may oscillate. The 11 - contract is for a short - selling strategy, and an attention is to be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by the harvest pressure and slow exports of US soybeans, the domestic soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, focusing on the support of 2900 - 2930 for the M2601 contract [45] - **Oils**: The short - term pullback is limited. The 01 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil should focus on the support levels of 8200 - 8250, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively, with a strategy of going long after the pullback [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig price is expected to be weak in the short - term and under pressure in the first half of next year, with potential improvement in the second half. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short - term and face long - term supply pressure. Corn prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and have cost support in the long - term [5][82][102] - For pigs, short - term supply exceeds demand, but policy support may limit the decline. For eggs, post - holiday demand is weak, and long - term supply adjustment takes time. For corn, new grain listing suppresses prices, and demand growth is limited [5][82][102] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Feed and Livestock Perspective Summary - **Pig**: The spot price has dropped unexpectedly, and the futures price is running weakly. Supply is increasing, demand is limited, and the price is under pressure. Policy support and other factors may limit the decline. Suggest a bearish view on contracts 11, 01, 03, 05, and focus on the long 05 short 03 arbitrage [5] - **Egg**: Demand has seasonally declined, and the egg price is running weakly. Short - term supply is sufficient, and long - term supply pressure remains. Suggest shorting contracts 12 and 01 after a rebound [82] - **Corn**: During the new crop listing period, the futures price rebound is under pressure. New grain supply is abundant, and demand growth is limited. Suggest a bearish view on the 11 contract and focus on the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [102] 3.2 Variety Industry Data Analysis 3.2.1 Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the national spot price was 11.14 yuan/kg, down 1.04 yuan/kg from before the holiday. The futures price of 2511 was 11320 yuan/ton, down 1035 yuan/ton. The 11 - contract basis was - 130 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan/ton [5] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the proportion of small and large pigs in weekly slaughter decreased, and the average slaughter weight decreased slightly. In terms of demand, the weekly average daily slaughter rate and volume decreased, and the frozen product storage rate increased. In terms of cost, the prices of piglets and sows decreased, and the losses of self - breeding and purchased piglet breeding increased [16] - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly in August but remained at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. The production performance improved, and the supply in the fourth quarter and the first half of next year is expected to be high. The planned slaughter volume of enterprises in October increased [20] 3.2.2 Egg - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.93 yuan/jin, down 0.48 yuan/jin from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2806 yuan/500 kg, down 232 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 276 yuan/500 kg, weaker than before the holiday [63] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the laying rate recovered, and the inventory of laying hens in September was at a high level. In terms of demand, the post - holiday demand decreased, and the inventory in production and circulation links increased. In terms of profit, the breeding profit decreased [64] - **Key Data Tracking**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The number of newly - opened laying hens from November 2025 to January 2026 is expected to decrease. The supply growth rate will slow down, but long - term supply pressure remains [82] 3.2.3 Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: As of October 10, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2180 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price of the 2511 contract was 2125 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, weaker than before the holiday [88] - **Fundamental Data Review**: In terms of supply, the old - crop inventory of traders was low, and new grain was gradually listed. In terms of demand, feed demand increased, but the substitution of wheat and the low - level operation of deep - processing limited the demand for corn. In terms of inventory, the inventory in the north port increased, and that in the south port decreased [90] - **Key Data Tracking**: The new - crop corn is expected to be abundant due to suitable weather during the growing period. The demand growth is limited, and the price is under pressure in the short - term and has cost support in the long - term [102]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Short - term fluctuations may occur due to Trump's tariff threat and high market valuations, but a full - scale panic is unlikely. The market is expected to operate in a volatile manner. Investors who have reduced their positions can wait and look for better opportunities, while those who haven't can lock their positions in a timely manner [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond market has been weak in the second and third quarters due to various negative factors, the fundamentals still provide support, and short - term treasury bonds may continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: On October 10, A - shares adjusted significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3900 points again, and the ChiNext and STAR Markets both slumping. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.94% [6]. - **Core View**: Short - term fluctuations are possible, but a panic - selling like that in April is less likely. Investors with reduced positions can wait, and those without can lock positions [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may adjust [6]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The stock index is expected to operate in a volatile manner [6]. - **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields declined significantly, with the long - end yields falling more, and the yield curve flattened significantly. The yield of the 30 - year treasury bond active bond dropped by more than 5bps [11]. - **Core View**: The bond market was affected by multiple negative factors in the second and third quarters, but the fundamentals still support it. Short - term treasury bonds may fluctuate [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate strongly [11]. - **Strategy Outlook**: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [11]. Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.4%. Supply and demand improved, and raw material inventories were replenished, which supported the PMI. Supplier delivery time and employment index slightly dragged down the PMI. The improvement in external and domestic demand in September may be due to non - US capital goods orders, US Christmas - season restocking orders, and the "anti - involution" policy [18]. - **CPI**: In August, the year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, and the month - on - month was flat. The year - on - year PPI was - 2.9%, and the month - on - month was flat. Although there were positive changes in prices, domestic demand was still weak, and the international trade environment was uncertain [21]. - **Import and Export**: In August, exports maintained a resilient growth with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The growth rate of general trade exports declined, while that of processing trade exports increased. The growth rate of electromechanical products and labor - intensive products declined, while that of high - tech products increased. Imports declined, and the trade surplus widened to $102.33 billion [23]. - **Industrial Enterprise Profits** - **Profit and Revenue Growth**: In August, both profit and revenue growth rates rebounded. From January to August, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits rebounded to 0.9%. In August, the single - month profit growth rate rebounded to 20.4%, and the revenue growth rate was 1.9% [27]. - **Structural Factors**: The rebound in profit growth in August may be due to the concentrated recognition of state - owned enterprise investment income and the effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy. The revenue growth rate of upstream manufacturing industries increased, while that of mid - and downstream industries declined [30]. - **Inventory and Turnover**: At the end of August, the nominal and real inventory growth rates of industrial enterprises declined. The inventory turnover days remained unchanged, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased slightly, indicating high operating pressure on enterprises [33]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In August, the production intensity declined, especially in downstream industries. The year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.2%, and the service production index growth rate dropped to 5.6%. The export delivery value growth rate turned negative for the first time since 2024 [36]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In August, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline. The growth rates of manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all decreased. The estimated single - month year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to - 6.3%, and that of private investment dropped to - 7.1% [39]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.4%, and that of retail sales above a designated size dropped to 2.4%. The narrowing of national subsidy channels and the overdraft effect of durable - goods consumption led to a lack of upward momentum in consumption [42]. - **Social Financing** - **New Social Financing**: In August, the new social financing was 2.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5 trillion yuan. Credit and government bonds were the main drags [46]. - **Credit Structure**: Resident credit increased positively, but medium - and long - term loans still increased less year - on - year. The new credit in August was 590 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3 trillion yuan [46]. - **Money Supply**: In August, the M0 growth rate declined to 11.7%, the M1 growth rate continued to rise to 6.0%, and the M2 growth rate remained flat at 8.8%. The growth rate of social financing stock declined to 8.8%, and after excluding government bonds, it dropped to 5.9% [49].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is affected by factors such as the suspension of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the notice of re - examination of mining rights transfer in Yichun and Qinghai, and the reduction in the import of lithium concentrate in August 2025. The cost of some external lithium - ore - purchasing manufacturers is inverted, while self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises have certain profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. The production, export, and sales of power and other batteries in August showed different trends, and policies are expected to support the growth of the new energy vehicle market. This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state [6]. - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Views Supply - side Situation - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, last week's lithium carbonate production increased by 505 tons week - on - week to 22,439 tons, and the production in September increased by 3.3% month - on - month to 95,442 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine was confirmed to be shut down for 3 months, and production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai received notices of re - examination of mining rights transfer [5]. - In the first half of the year, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the space for further cost reduction is extremely limited. Most mainstream Australian mines have reduced their capital expenditures for fiscal year 25. In August 2025, China imported 619,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a month - on - month decrease of 17.5%. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium concentrate from Australia decreased by 50.5% month - on - month, that from Zimbabwe increased by 83.9% to 118,000 tons, that from Nigeria decreased by 9.5% to 105,000 tons, and the import from Mali increased by 73,000 tons. In August, 21,847 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 57.8%, with 15,608 tons from Chile, accounting for 71% [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers producing lithium carbonate by purchasing external lithium ore faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt - lake enterprises had certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [5]. Demand - side Situation - The overall production schedule in September increased month - on - month, and the production schedule of large battery cell factories increased by 8% month - on - month. In August, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 139.6 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 37.3%. The total export of power and other batteries was 22.6 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% but a year - on - year increase of 23.9%. The sales volume of power and other batteries was 134.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.7% and a year - on - year increase of 45.6%. Policies such as the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market in China [6]. Inventory Situation - This week, lithium carbonate inventory showed a slight destocking state. The inventory of lithium carbonate factories decreased by 905 tons, the market inventory decreased by 1,003 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 960 tons [6]. Strategy Recommendations - Before a clear result on the lithium mining license issue in Jiangxi, the domestic supply - demand remains in a tight balance. The terminal demand for energy storage is good, and the production schedule in October continues to grow. There are continuous risks with mining licenses, and lithium production from ore continues to increase under the background of profit repair, with the cost center rising. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations, and cautious trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to the progress of mining licenses in Yichun mines and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [6]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot tax - inclusive average price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium concentrate imports, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), production value of power batteries, production value of lithium iron phosphate power batteries, production - loading volume differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, monthly production of lithium iron phosphate, monthly production of ternary materials, monthly production of cobalt - acid lithium and manganese - acid lithium, import volume of lithium spodumene, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium carbonate, market price of ternary material 8 - series NCA type, etc. These data cover the time span from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the long - term trends and changes in the lithium carbonate market [8][9][10][14][15][17][18][20][21][23][26][27][30][32][33][35][37].