长江期货棉纺产业周报 临近6月国际局势博弈，上行遇压 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-05-26 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 周度观点 整体观点：国内目前供需形势，4月底商业库存只有415万吨，工业库存95万吨，按照后面每月65万吨消费的话， 到了8月底商业库存只有155万吨，去年同期是214万吨，23年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是163万吨，显然今年 比23年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直 偏强就是这个原因，棉花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形势，09合约偏强。 但到了01合约，新棉，目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦的地200万亩，去年种植番茄其他作物，应该 都改种棉花，所以预计新棉丰产至750万吨，新年度就宽松了些，所以限制了涨幅。目前短中期上涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The Trump tax - cut bill barely passed in the House of Representatives and still faces challenges in the Senate. Fed理事沃勒 said the tax - cut bill triggered the selling of US Treasuries, and if tariffs stabilize, there may be an interest rate cut in the second half of the year. US May Markit manufacturing and services PMIs exceeded expectations and expanded, with the price index rising again. The Eurozone's May PMI unexpectedly contracted, and the service sector had its worst performance in 16 months. After the US - Japan finance ministers' meeting, the US said "no exchange - rate discussion, the current exchange rate reflects fundamentals", and Japan said "no discussion on US Treasuries". In the domestic market, the rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the equity index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Recently, the market has entered a data vacuum zone, lacking new positive or negative factors, and oscillation has become the consensus. From the futures trend, the long - and short - side forces are evenly matched. During the oscillation period, when it touches the upper or lower limit of the range, there will be short - term confrontations between the long and short sides. Without incremental information or fundamental data guidance in the short term, the oscillation pattern is expected to continue, and the market may continue to focus on spread mining [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Equity Index**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bullish in the short term [4]. 4. Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.05%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index rose 0.1%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index fell 0.7%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index fell 0.81% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.01%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.0%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.0% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible oscillating operation with adjustment risks [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Zhang) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 3879.60 | - 0.05 | 52835 | 143884 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2715.40 | 0.10 | 28918 | 51342 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 5614.80 | - 0.70 | 53832 | 116140 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 5950.00 | - 0.81 | 148619 | 195203 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.81 | 0.01 | 65126 | 156071 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.98 | - 0.00 | 47004 | 116615 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 30 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.52 | - 0.04 | 67554 | 82843 | | 2025 - 05 - 22 | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.37 | - 0.00 | 34274 | 100554 | [12]

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 5 月 22 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.22%至 77920 元/吨。中 美关税冲突缓和，叠加国内密集出台"稳增长"政策组合拳，同时美国 通胀降温，美联储降息概率加大，整个宏观面上交易情绪回暖，对铜价 有所提振。基本面，铜精矿现货 TC 继续回落，创历史新低，但下跌速 度放缓，短期对炼厂产量影响不大。随着铜价上行，持货商挺价出货与 下游畏高保守采购形成博弈，下游订单新增相对有限，消费提升空间不 大，5 月部分铜材加工率环比有所下滑，虽好于去年同期，但需求已有 走弱迹象。旺季转淡，库存低位累库，对铜价的支撑作用减弱，现货升 水或将承压。整体来看，宏观偏好，而基本面有所转弱，沪铜近期或仍 维持震荡格局。 ◆ 铝： 截至 5 月 22 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.20%至 20210 元/吨。近 日几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿许可证问题有进一步升级，AXIS 矿区被 划入战略储备区域，禁止开采，推动氧化铝大涨，后续关注是否有复产 回旋余地。氧化铝运行产能周度环比增加 10 万吨至 8685 万吨，全国氧 化铝库存 324.6 万吨，周度环比减少 4.2 万 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： ◆鸡蛋： 5 月 23 日山东德州报价 2.8 元/斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/斤；北京报价 3.14 元/ 斤，较上日跌 0.16 元/斤。短期蛋价跌至低位，且鸡蛋性价比尚可，随着端 午临近，渠道及下游采购需求或增加，预计对蛋价形成支撑，但 5 月新开产 量较大，叠加老鸡淘汰未放量，供应持续累积，且南方天气不利鸡蛋存储， 渠道采购心态偏谨慎，需求承接或相对有限，整体端午节日有利好，但高供 应未缓解下，蛋价走势承压。中长期来看，25 年 2-4 月补栏量依旧较高， 对应 25 年 6-8 月新开产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能 力增强，产能出清或需要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转， 关注近端淘汰情况。短期产能未出清，蛋价走势承压，关注近端淘汰及原料 成本波动扰动。策略建议：06 限仓，观望为主；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待， 等待反弹逢高做空为主，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰 动。关注消费情况、淘鸡、各环节库存等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花 顺） 产业服务总部 饲料养殖团队 2025-05-23 公司资质 长江期货股份 ...

长江期货研究咨询部 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 赵丹琪：| Z0014940 电话：027-65777110 邮箱：zhaodq1@cjsc.com.cn 期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Cotton is expected to show a moderately strong upward trend in the short - to medium - term, especially during the Sino - US "honeymoon period" in May and June. However, caution is needed in July and August. The 09 contract is relatively strong, while the 01 contract may face supply pressure due to expected new cotton production. The price is also highly affected by macro factors [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure. With the weakening of demand and the restart of some production enterprises, the PTA market may continue to be under pressure in the short term without new positive factors [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction due to the rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range. The price may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - As of the end of April, the commercial inventory was 415 million tons, and the industrial inventory was 95 million tons. By the end of August, the commercial inventory is expected to be 155 million tons, lower than the same period last year and in 2023. The 09 contract is strong, and the new cotton in the 01 contract may lead to a supply increase. The short - to medium - term price is expected to rise, especially in May and June, but caution is needed in July and August. The price is affected by macro factors, and it is advisable to hedge at the rebound high [1]. - On May 22, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,621 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index was 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The total cotton warehouse receipts were 11,757 (- 14) sheets [8]. - As of early May, Brazil's 2025 new cotton harvest has not started, with an expected total output of 3.95 million tons. In April, Brazil exported 239,000 tons of cotton, and the cumulative export volume this year is at a historical high [8]. - On May 22, the Xinjiang cotton road transportation price index was 0.1311 yuan/ton·km, down 1.35% month - on - month [8]. PTA - As of May 14, the average PTA processing margin was 390.88 yuan/ton, down 10.5% month - on - month and up 7.68% year - on - year. As of May 15, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 74.63%, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 4.68% year - on - year. The PTA output was 1.2967 million tons, a slight decrease from last week [8][9]. - The PTA market is under pressure due to weakening demand and the restart of production enterprises. The price is affected by factors such as crude oil and polyester production cuts [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate in China was 61.04%, down 2.42% month - on - month. The production was 368,300 tons, down 1.32% from last week [10][13]. - The price is expected to trade in a range. Although the cost is decreasing and the supply - demand situation is favorable, there may be a price correction [3]. Short - fiber - As of the 8th, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 166,900 tons, up 1.52% month - on - month, and the average capacity utilization rate was 88.24%, up 1.30% month - on - month. The average polymerization cost was 5,706.60 yuan/ton, up 7.35% month - on - month, and the industry cash flow was - 361.60 yuan/ton, down 86.41% month - on - month [11]. - The price is expected to be strong in the near term but weak in the long term due to the approaching terminal off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. Sugar - The NFCSF expects India's 2024/25 sugar production to be about 2.611 million tons, lower than the previous season. The ISO has raised the global sugar shortage estimate for the 2024/25 season to 5.47 million tons. In April 2025, China imported 130,000 tons of sugar, and the cumulative import from January to April was 278,400 tons, a significant decrease year - on - year [12][13][14]. - The sugar price is expected to trade sideways. Internationally, there are expectations of increased production in Brazil, while domestically, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors [4][5]. Apples - As of May 21, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main production areas was 1.7085 million tons, down 242,500 tons from the previous week. The prices in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are provided [15]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level. With low inventory, the price is likely to remain in a high - level range, although the market may be affected by the listing of seasonal fruits [5]. Macro Information - Trump's tax - cut bill has passed the House of Representatives and will be reviewed by the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion in the next decade and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion [8]. - The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI improved slightly, but the service PMI declined significantly, dragging down the composite PMI. The market is increasing bets on the ECB to cut interest rates twice this year [8].

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 129（-10）。基本面方面，本周螺 纹钢表需回落、产量回升，库存去化速度放缓，需求即将季节性走弱，而 当下钢厂利润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，供需矛盾将会逐步显现。后市 而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉谷电成本，静态估值处 于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规 模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但需求即将环比转 弱，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD， Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面窄幅震荡。受抢出口和高铁水意思影响，价格在相对 高位继续调整。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 757 元/湿吨（-8）。普氏 62% 指数 99.7 美元/吨（-0.45），月均 99.89 美元/吨。PBF 基差 73 元/吨 （-8）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,706.10 万吨，环+283.7。 45 港口+247 钢厂总库存 23,127.25 万吨，环-70.44。24 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: Extreme conservative House members threaten to block Trump's tax - cut bill, and the White House warns that killing the bill would be an "ultimate betrayal". The EU says the US negotiation proposal is unrealistic and has a new plan. The US states that the Treasury Secretary and the Japanese Finance Minister did not discuss exchange - rate levels at the G7 meeting. Shanghai releases a special action plan to boost consumption. The domestic market rotation is fast, the main driving force of the market is weak, and the stock index may fluctuate [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The suppression of bonds by the equity market is limited. Treasury bond futures show strong buying support near the technical support level in the afternoon. The market is looking for cost - effectiveness, and the allocation funds favor long - term local bonds in central regions with sufficient spread protection. In the medium - to - long term, the upside space of yields is relatively limited under the background that the logic of loose liquidity remains and the signal of fundamental recovery needs to be verified. However, the short - term market lacks clear catalysts and the trend is in a stalemate [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.43%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.46%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 0.13%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.18% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows that it may fluctuate and there is an adjustment risk [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see strategy [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.27%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating operation and may rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data - On May 21, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various stock index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided in a table [12].

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 偏强震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： 区间【2300，2360】操作 ...