金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 报道称，美国财长贝森特称关税僵局不可持续。另据报道，特朗普政府"接 近"和日本与印度达成贸易协定，但可能仍需数月来达成最终的贸易协议。 特朗普：没打算解雇鲍威尔，现在是降息的绝佳时机。广东、上海等地谋划 出台《提振消费专项行动方案》。虽然短期基本面表现尚可，难以构成政策 加码的必要条件，但考虑到出口链产销环比走弱带来的压力，政策仍有提前 发力的充分条件，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 当前市场每次在总量工具操作时均有不同程度的降息预期，核心还是由于市 场的超前定价和不断落空的预期之间的落差，市场缺乏赚钱效应后市场只能 反复交易未来的降息节奏。债市其他影响因素暂时没有更多变化，外部因素 短期内看也不会出现较为迅猛的发酵或者反转。债市交易的主线还是回到国 内政策节奏、资金面的交易上来。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-04-23 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 ◆ 技术分析： KDJ 指标显示大盘震荡偏强运行。 ◆ 风险提示： 从业编号：F30806 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 22 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4935 元/吨（-110），常州市场价 4780 元/吨（-30），主力基差-155 元/吨（+80），广州市场价 4845 元/吨（-45）， 杭州市场价 4830 元/吨（-50）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2450 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。目前海外局势 动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政策预期不强，PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱 势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口 和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、 经济预期继续恶化，盘面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 22 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约 ...

2025 年 4 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 区间波动 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 走势偏弱 | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： | 近弱远强 | ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较前一日上 涨 40 元/吨，05 合约基差 151（+4），宏观层面，上周特朗普继续加 码，对部分中国产品加征 245%关税，不过近期又暗示不再继续提高对 华关税，甚至可能想降低关税，而国内一季度经济数据发布，整体偏好， GDP 同比增长 5.4%，短期可能不会出台大规模刺激政策；产业层面， 最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需大幅增加，去库速度加快，不过市场担忧需 求见顶，通常而言，五月份钢材需求会季节性下滑，旺季窗口期已经不 长。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，仅仅 高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中美 关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预期偏弱， 预计价格震荡偏弱运行。策略上，暂时观望为宜。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格震荡偏强。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 769 元/湿吨 （+13）。普氏 62%指数 99.9 美元/吨（+0.95） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, and government bonds are expected to rise in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar requires temporary observation; iron ore is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner; coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading; aluminum requires observation; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin and silver are recommended for range trading; gold is recommended to build positions at low prices after a full price correction [1][11][13][16] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][21][22][28] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply; apples are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner; PTA is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [1][30][31] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate within a range; eggs are expected to weaken; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; oils and fats are expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [1][33][36][37] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as tariff policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own fundamentals and external environments [5][7][11] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Although the short - term fundamentals are acceptable, considering the pressure from the weakening of the export chain's production and sales, policies may be advanced, and the index futures may operate in a fluctuating manner [5] - **Government Bonds**: The market is affected by factors such as the central bank's interest rate policy, the performance of the equity market, and the shape of the yield curve. In the short term, the market may focus on supply and capital interest rate factors, and the curve may steepen rapidly under certain conditions [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The macro environment is complex, and the industry's supply - demand relationship is changing. The short - term price is expected to operate in a fluctuating and weakening manner, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [7] - **Iron Ore**: The supply may increase in the later stage, and the finished product market has a negative feedback effect. However, considering factors such as the production of molten iron and possible macro - policy benefits, the 09 contract is expected to weaken in a fluctuating manner [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are in a state of weak balance in the short term, and the market trend is affected by factors such as the demand for terminal steel, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal, and the profit of steel and coking enterprises [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - environment is complex, and the fundamentals are relatively strong. The price may continue to change sharply under the background of Sino - US game, and it is recommended for range trading [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply and demand situation is changing, and the short - term macro uncertainty is strong. It is recommended to observe and pay attention to policy changes [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand relationships, the price has fallen close to the cost line. It is recommended to observe or short - sell at high prices [16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended for range trading [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as market recession expectations, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to operate in a fluctuating manner, and it is recommended for range trading or to build positions at low prices after a correction [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term macro - environment has an impact on the price. It is necessary to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term price has rebounded due to the improvement of supply - demand, but the supply is still sufficient, and the sustainability of the increase is not optimistic [22] - **Rubber**: The market lacks obvious driving forces, and the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to policies, tariffs, and the situation of new rubber production [24] - **Urea**: The supply is stable, and the demand has support. The short - term price may strengthen in a fluctuating manner, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high level, and the downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as the macro - environment and production device maintenance [26] - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to operate in a low - level fluctuating manner, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream demand, crude oil prices, and tariff games [27] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure, and it is recommended to hold short positions in call options [28][29] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by the USDA's supply - demand forecast and tariff policies, the price is expected to fluctuate sharply [30] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the sales are good. The price is expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner, but it is necessary to pay attention to macro risks [31] - **PTA**: Although the supply - demand relationship is good, the price is affected by factors such as tariffs and cost reduction, and it is difficult to be optimistic [31][32] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price rebound is under pressure, but the decline is also limited. It is recommended to sell short - term out - of - the - money call options [33][34][35] - **Eggs**: The short - term price is supported by demand, but the long - term supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to short at high prices [36] - **Corn**: The short - term price is affected by supply - demand game, and the long - term price has an upward driving force, but the increase is limited. It is recommended to buy at low prices after a correction [37][38] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply - demand is tight in some areas, and the long - term price is expected to rise. Different contracts have different investment strategies [38][39] - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to operate in a high - level fluctuating manner. The medium - and long - term prices may first fall and then rise, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [40][42][44]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 股指：石破茂强硬表态：日本不会在美国关税谈判中一味让步。特朗普称关 税谈判进展不错，墨西哥总统：我们连共识都没有。中国就上海提升跨境金 融服务便利化推出行动方案，计划提升人民币跨境支付系统功能和全球网络 覆盖，促进以人民币计价结算的进出口贸易。虽然短期基本面表现尚可，难 以构成政策加码的必要条件，但考虑到出口链产销环比走弱带来的压力，政 策仍有提前发力的充分条件，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 2025-04-22 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 资金面短期内也看不到进一步宽松的迹象。在大量中短债持有体验变差、没 有赚钱效应的情况下，机构可能会倾向于减仓和优化持仓结构，直到出现一 些决定性的破局变量出现——如国债买卖重启等，曲线可能重新出现快速的 陡峭化。短期内市场交易主线暂时切换到后续的供给、资金利率因素上。仅 从技术角度看，如果全曲线填补上前期因为外部冲击出现的利率跳空缺口， 关注是否会出现显著的利 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 22 日辽宁现货 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.7- 15.4 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.6-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.2-15.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳。规模 企业多控重出栏、散户低位抗价情绪较强，支撑价格，但 4 月供应维持增 加，肥标价差持续缩小，后期养殖端或加快出栏节奏。需求端，五一假期临 近，备货需求提升，但猪价偏高，消费处于淡季，屠企利润仍亏损，需求增 量有限，整体供需博弈加剧，猪价频繁震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育 进出情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提 升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏 高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价有下跌风险，关注二育介 入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润，去化幅度有限，处于均衡 ...

基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 21 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约上涨 1.71%至 77290 元/吨。特 朗普政府关税立场的调整对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，而在美国 232 条 款铜关税调查中，力拓、托克集团等美国铜行业的主要参与者呼吁限制 铜矿石和废铜的出口，而不是对进口征收关税，以此推动国内铜生产。 美国是中国最大废铜供应国（年出口约 60 万吨），这一举措若实施将再 次冲击全球贸易格局，推高全球铜价。基本面上，铜精矿 TC 跌破-30 美 元/吨，创近年新低，但受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然维持高位， 3 月精炼铜产量为 124.8 万吨，同比增加 8.6%，4 月电解铜产量同比预 计仍有增长，显示产出的韧性。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库 并未受到明显影响。3 月需求旺季，带动了铜材产量如期增长。3 月中国 铜材产量达 212.5 万吨，创近几年同期新高。下周面临假期备货需求， 预期去库趋势仍然延续。基本面整体偏强，而宏观面上废铜出口可能受 限、鲍威尔鹰派表态否认政策托底以及关税影响等因素交织，中美博弈 背景下铜价或将继续激烈变动。下周沪铜维持偏强震荡，建议区间谨慎 交易。 有色金属日报 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了 ...