1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, Ethylene Glycol (MEG), Methanol, Urea, Asphalt [1][3][4][5][8] - **Cautiously bullish**: PTA, Natural Gas [3][8] - **Bearish rebound**: L, PP, PVC, Soda Ash [1][8] - **Bearish consolidation**: Glass [8] 2. Report's Core Views - **Overall**: The energy and chemical market is influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, macro - policies, and cost fluctuations. Most products face supply - side pressures, while some demand shows short - term improvement but lacks long - term stability [1][3][4][5][8] - **Specific products**: - **Crude oil**: OPEC+ may expand production, leading to a supply surplus and downward pressure on oil prices [1][11][12] - **LPG**: Cost - side oil price correction leads to a weakening of LPG [1][17] - **PTA**: New device production and potential maintenance may balance supply, with short - term upward momentum due to "anti - involution" hype, but long - term supply remains loose [3][36] - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses prices, but demand shows slight improvement, and there is potential for long - term price increase [4][43] - **Urea**: Supply is relatively abundant, and although demand improves slightly, winter demand and export incentives are limited [5][47] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **Market situation**: Overnight international oil prices slightly declined, with WTI down 0.31%, Brent down 0.46%, and SC up 0.47% [10] - **Basic logic**: Short - term geopolitical factors cause price fluctuations, but the core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the oil price center is expected to move down [11] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. Indian imports and exports show certain changes, and US inventory data varies [12] - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short positions lightly, and focus on the range of [460 - 470] for SC [13] 3.2 LPG - **Market situation**: On October 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,260 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [16] - **Basic logic**: It follows the cost - side oil price, with short - term geopolitical risk mitigation leading to a cost - side correction [17] - **Strategy**: Try short positions lightly and focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] [18] 3.3 L - **Market situation**: The L2601 contract closed at 6,999 yuan/ton [21] - **Basic logic**: Social inventory is slightly reduced, but supply remains loose, and cost support is insufficient [22] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, and follow the cost for short - term rebounds, focusing on the range of [6900 - 7100] [22] 3.4 PP - **Market situation**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,691 yuan/ton [26] - **Basic logic**: Spot price increase lags, demand faces de - stocking pressure, and oil - based cost support is weak [27] - **Strategy**: Industries should sell hedges at high prices, follow the cost for short - term rebounds, and focus on the range of [6600 - 6800] [27] 3.5 PVC - **Market situation**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,719 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic logic**: Low valuation supports, but single - product losses expand, and supply - demand surplus persists [31] - **Strategy**: Industries should hedge at high prices, and participate in short - term rebounds lightly, focusing on the range of [4600 - 4800] [31] 3.6 PX - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices show certain changes [32] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device load decreases, demand improves in the short - term but weakens in the long - term, and cost - side oil price rebound is limited [33] - **Strategy**: Take profits on short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short at high prices, and consider arbitrage by expanding downstream processing fees, focusing on the range of [6550 - 6660] [34] 3.7 PTA - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory shows a decreasing trend [35] - **Basic logic**: New device production and potential maintenance relieve supply pressure, and short - term demand improves slightly [36] - **Strategy**: Lightly chase long positions, stop losses on short positions, and look for opportunities to short on rebounds in the long - term, focusing on the range of [4580 - 4660] [37] 3.8 MEG - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory slightly accumulates [38] - **Basic logic**: Domestic device load decreases, overseas slightly increases, and supply pressure is expected to rise [39] - **Strategy**: Close short - term long positions, look for opportunities to short on rebounds, focusing on the range of [4070 - 4140] [40] 3.9 Methanol - **Market situation**: High inventory suppresses prices, and demand shows slight improvement [43] - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure remains, demand improves slightly, and cost support is weak but stable [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices, and focus on MA1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, focusing on the range of [2240 - 2280] [45] 3.10 Urea - **Market situation**: Futures and spot prices change, and inventory accumulates [46] - **Basic logic**: Supply is abundant, demand improves slightly, but winter demand and export incentives are limited [47] - **Strategy**: Hold short positions carefully, and consider long positions in the medium - to - long - term, focusing on the range of [1615 - 1645] [49]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: High-level decline, strategic allocation value remains unchanged in the medium to long term [1] - Silver: High-level decline, long-term bullish after stabilization [1] - Copper: Long-term holding, short-term profit-taking [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short-term upside limited, medium to long-term bearish [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound [1] - Aluminum: Relatively strong [1] - Nickel: Rebound and then decline [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range-bound operation [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various non-ferrous metals and new energy metals, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, lead, tin, aluminum, nickel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides insights into the short-term and long-term price trends, as well as investment strategies for each metal [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Situation**: Due to the easing of Sino-US relations and the reduction of risk aversion, the prices of gold and silver have significantly adjusted. In the short term, risk assets have risen sharply, leading to an obvious outflow of funds from safe-haven gold and silver. However, in the long term, gold is expected to benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern, potentially maintaining a long-term upward trend [2][3][4]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, pay attention to the support levels of gold and silver. For domestic gold, focus on the 900 support level, and for silver, focus on the effectiveness of the 11000 support level. Long-term value investors should continue to hold their positions [4]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The price of copper has reached a new high this year, but it has given back some of its gains overnight. The market has fully priced in the optimistic expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino-US relations. In the short term, downstream demand is suppressed by high prices, and social inventories have increased. However, in the long term, copper is expected to benefit from the shortage of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [5][6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short-term long positions should be moved to take profits, and investors should avoid blindly chasing high prices. Long-term strategic long positions should be held, and industrial hedging should consider adding option protection. In the short term, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 86000 - 90000 yuan/ton, and the price of London copper is expected to trade in the range of 10600 - 11200 US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: Zinc prices have continued to rebound, but overall demand is weak, and long-term supply is relatively loose. The silver ten peak season has not been prosperous, and demand is under pressure. The domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and domestic inventories have slightly increased, while overseas LME zinc inventories are at risk of a soft squeeze [8][9][10]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the upside space may be limited after the short-term macro policy stimulus fades. Pay attention to the breakthrough of the two resistance levels at 22500 and 22800. In the medium to long term, zinc is expected to have an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, remaining a short position in the sector. The price of Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton, and the price of London zinc is expected to trade in the range of 2980 - 3080 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Situation**: Aluminum prices have continued to rise, and the price of alumina has stabilized. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has reached a high level, and domestic inventories have decreased. The demand side is relatively stable, and the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has remained flat [11][12][13]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range of Shanghai aluminum is expected to be between 21000 - 21800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel prices have rebounded under pressure, and stainless steel prices have also rebounded. Overseas, the supply of nickel ore has become relatively stable, and domestic pure nickel inventories have continued to accumulate. The terminal consumption of stainless steel is in the peak season, but the performance is average, and the market is under pressure to destock [15][16][17]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is expected to be between 120000 - 123000 yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The price of lithium carbonate has shown a relatively strong trend. The fundamental situation has improved significantly, with total inventories decreasing for 10 consecutive weeks and the destocking rhythm accelerating after the holiday. Although the supply side continues to grow, the production in Sichuan has decreased slightly due to the shortage of domestic lithium spodumene, while the incremental contribution from the ramping up of salt lake production capacity. Terminal demand remains strong, and the production schedule for November is still relatively high [19][20][21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Long positions should be held, and investors can consider adding positions on pullbacks. The price of the main contract LC2601 is expected to trade in the range of 81000 - 84000 yuan/ton [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Short - term bearish consolidation**: This view applies to soybean meal, rapeseed meal. For soybean meal, rumors of the second shipment of Argentine soybean meal re - entering the Chinese market and Trump's remarks have dampened market sentiment. However, due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the spot market is conservative. Brazilian rainfall outlook supports price stabilization, but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties. Rapeseed meal has mixed factors due to trade policies and high inventory, and it follows the soybean meal trend [1]. - **Short - term decline**: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to decline in the short term. Palm oil has a high probability of inventory accumulation in October and weak post - festival demand. Soybean oil is pressured by US soybean harvest and has sufficient short - term supply. Rapeseed oil is affected by increased imports and the possible easing of Sino - Canadian relations [1]. - **Upside resistance**: Cotton faces upside resistance. International supply is pressured by new cotton harvests in the Northern Hemisphere, while Indian MSP provides some support. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory is restored, but downstream demand is weak [1]. - **Rebound and short - selling**: This is applicable to jujube and live pigs. Jujube's fundamentals are expected to be loose, and short - term suggestions involve reducing short positions as the price approaches the cost. Live pigs have increasing supply pressure in Q4, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national port soybean inventory decreased, while oil - mill soybean and soybean meal inventories changed. Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil - mill profit is in the red, leading to strong price - holding intentions and weak downstream replenishment [3]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2932 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. Spot prices vary, and various spreads and basis values have changed [2]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, with price supported by Brazilian rainfall but limited upside due to Sino - US negotiation uncertainties [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market situation**: As of October 24, coastal oil - mill菜籽 inventory was flat, rapeseed meal inventory decreased, and unexecuted contracts increased. International supply may rise, and domestic demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2335 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. Spot prices and various spreads and basis values have changed [5]. - **Outlook**: Short - term bearish consolidation, following the soybean meal trend due to lack of new drivers [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Market situation**: As of October 24, 2025, national commercial inventory increased. October production may rise, and export performance is average, with a high probability of inventory accumulation [8]. - **Price data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9100 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Various price indices, trading volumes, and spreads have changed [7]. - **Outlook**: Short - term decline, with a weak and volatile market due to post - festival weak demand [1][8]. Cotton - **Market situation**: In the US, new cotton harvest is over 70%. In Brazil, new cotton processing and inspection are over 70%, and exports have accelerated. In China, new cotton is almost harvested, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak [10][11][12]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also seen fluctuations [9]. - **Outlook**: Upside resistance, with ICE market in a weak and volatile range, and domestic market facing resistance due to weak demand [1][12]. Jujube - **Market situation**: Some jujube areas have started harvesting, and inventory has increased seasonally. New jujube purchase prices are concentrated in a certain range, and the consumer market is in a wait - and - see state [15]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Basis, spreads, and other indicators have also fluctuated [13]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with loose fundamentals and suggestions to reduce short positions as the price approaches the cost [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Market situation**: In the short term, October planned slaughter may increase, and second - fattening has increased in some areas. Mid - term, Q4 - Q1 2026 slaughter may rise. Long - term, sow inventory decline is not significant. Demand may increase with the cooling weather [19][20]. - **Price data**: Futures prices of different contracts and spot prices have changed. Various indicators such as basis, spreads, inventory, and profit have also fluctuated [17]. - **Outlook**: Rebound and short - selling, with increasing supply pressure in Q4 and a suggestion to short - sell on rebounds [1][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soymeal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, providing short - term trends and trading strategies for each [1]. - **Soymeal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. Although weather factors support price stabilization, the upcoming Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties, limiting the rebound space [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term bearish consolidation. It follows the trend of soymeal due to the lack of new drivers, and the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation situation is complex [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term decline. The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month have a negative impact on market sentiment [1][8]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term decline. The harvest of US soybeans and sufficient domestic supply put pressure on prices, and it depends on the performance of palm oil [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term decline. Low oil mill operating rates and consumption season factors are offset by increased imports and potential Sino - Canadian relationship improvements [1]. - **Cotton**: Upward pressure. The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. - **Jujube**: Sell on rallies. New jujube production is expected to be in a situation of both supply and demand growth, but short - term speculative risks are rising [1][14]. - **Live Pigs**: Sell on rebounds. The supply pressure in Q4 remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1][16]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2933 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3034.29 yuan/ton, up 0.75% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.884 million tons, down 208,000 tons from last week; the 125 - oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, up 29,400 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Spot market supply is sufficient, but oil mill profit is in a loss state, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2325 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2505.26 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, down 1.2 million tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, down 0.37 million tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The international market has an expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. The domestic market is in a state of destocking, but demand is in a seasonal off - peak [6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9122 yuan/ton, down 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 9148 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [7]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 575,700 tons, up 28,100 tons from last week [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: The slowdown in export growth and significant increase in production in the first 20 days of this month, along with the approaching Indian festival reducing purchasing demand, lead to short - term fluctuations [1][8]. Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13540 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14803 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national commercial cotton inventory was 1.8416 million tons, up 410,000 tons from the previous week; the Xinjiang commercial cotton inventory was 1.3582 million tons, up 410,000 tons [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The increase in supply from the US and other northern hemisphere countries, along with weak downstream demand, restricts price increases [1][12]. Jujube - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% from the previous day. The spot price of Kashi general jujube was 8 yuan/kg, up 25% [13]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9103 tons, up 94 tons from the previous week, higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: New jujube production is expected to decline, and demand is gradually improving, but there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap [14]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 12175 yuan/ton, down 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 11970 yuan/ton, unchanged [15]. - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample - enterprise live - pig inventory was 38.3901 million heads, up 1.50% from the previous month; the planned slaughter volume in October increased by 5.48% month - on - month [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term supply pressure remains high, and the market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with attention to the demand during the winter pickling season [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (Oct 20 - Oct 24), PVC prices oscillated at a low level, with the weekly line turning positive and ending a four - week losing streak. The market is expected to continue its low - level oscillation in the future. The fundamentals remain in a pattern of high inventory, high warehouse receipts, and weak demand, with limited upside drivers. However, due to the low absolute price and the strengthening of raw material prices, the downside space is extremely limited. The current position volume is at a high level for the same period, so attention should be paid to capital dynamics [3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Review - This week, PVC prices oscillated at a low level. It opened 8 points higher at the weekly low of 4696 on Monday, then rose to 4746 and oscillated downward. It hit the weekly low of 4670 on Tuesday night and then rebounded, reaching the weekly high of 4749 on Friday night and finally closing at 4708, up 20 points or 0.3% from last week. The amplitude for the whole week was 79 points. As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4708 yuan/ton, and the main position volume was 1.23 million lots [3][8][11]. - As of Friday, the Changzhou basis of PVC was - 108 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipts were 120,000 lots. The V1 - 5 spread was - 299 yuan/ton, and the V3 - 5 spread was - 230 yuan/ton [14][17]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 470,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 0.1), with the capacity utilization rate at 77%. The cumulative production from week 1 to week 43 increased by 4.6% year - on - year. It is predicted that the supply will increase next week as the start - up of PVC enterprises will rise and the maintenance enterprises will gradually resume production. However, the start - up of downstream enterprises will remain low, and export is expected to decline, so the overall supply - demand gap is expected to widen [20]. Real Estate - From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 18.9%, - 9.4%, - 15.3%, and - 5.5% respectively. The decline in new construction and completion areas narrowed, while the decline in construction and sales areas continued to expand. In September 2025, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.84 million square meters [23][26]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream start - up rate was 49%, and it has been slowly increasing after the holiday. From January to September 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, with the apparent consumption in September being 1.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 1.4%) [29]. Exports - From January to September 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.92 million tons (an increase of 980,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 51%. In September 2025, the export volume was 350,000 tons (including 160,000 tons to India). The export market continues the trend of "trading volume with price", and the weekly order signing increased month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 3.14 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11%), and the export volume in September was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 3%) [32][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 340,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons), and the inventory has been accelerating to decline for two consecutive weeks after the holiday. The upstream enterprises' pre - sales volume was 64 (a week - on - week increase of 8). The small - sample social inventory of PVC was 540,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 1,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6%), remaining stable [41][44]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of PVC by the calcium carbide method was - 723 yuan/ton. The price of calcium carbide rose slightly at a low level, strengthening the cost support. Currently, the profit of the northwest chlor - alkali integration continues to be compressed [47][50]. Strategies - Unilateral: Due to the low valuation of the absolute price in the short term, participate in the rebound market with a light position according to capital dynamics. Pay attention to the range of [4650, 4850] for the V2601 contract. - Hedging: As the futures price is higher than the spot price, industrial customers can sell on the futures market when the price is high [5].

中辉期货铁合金周报 供需趋于宽松，上行略显乏力 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/10/24 铁合金观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周铁合金价格跟随黑色系商品小幅反弹，锰硅主力合约上涨0.94%，硅铁期货上涨2.06%， 整体表现强于锰硅。从供需层面来看，目前产区供应仍维持同期偏高水平，下游高铁水背景下仍对合金需求形 成一定支撑。目前主要矛盾仍来自于库存，截至10月24日，企业硅锰库存合计29.3万吨，硅铁库存合计 6.66万吨，均处近五年同期高位水平。随着下游需求季节性走弱，产业去库难度进一步增加。 • 铁合金成本端表现相对强势。 本周煤焦价格偏强运行，锰矿价格尚未出现明显回落，部分矿品小幅上涨。从发运数据来看，本期三大国发运 量合计84.92万吨，环比增加40.99万吨；到货量合计60.99万吨，环比增加20.61万吨。三大国发、到货 均有增加，加蓬矿发运恢复较为明显。疏港量环比下降但绝对值仍然偏高，港口库存维持低位运行。 【后市展望】：综合来看，目前合金价格处于"下有底，上有顶"的状态，预计 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the performance of the black - plate sector continued to diverge. The main contract of rebar rose 0.3% week - on - week, hot - rolled coil rose 1.4%, iron ore remained flat, coking coal rose 5.9%, and coke rose 4.9%. The supply and demand of rebar were both weak, while those of hot - rolled coil were both strong. Rebar inventory was higher than last year but was expected to be normally destocked later, and hot - rolled coil might face inventory pressure [2]. - Steel overall inventory was high, and the supply - demand situation was still weak. Pig iron production was likely to decline, and the raw material side would face certain negative feedback risks later. Macroscopically, the Fourth Plenary Session had little impact. Only the supply side of coking coal had upward driving force, but the marginal impact decreased. Overall, the upward driving force of steel was limited, and it might show a weakening oscillatory trend in the short and medium term [2]. - Regarding the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the export of hot - rolled coil was expected to continue to improve, and the spread increased this week. However, considering the relative inventory, the pressure on hot - rolled coil was greater, and the spread was expected to narrow again [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In September 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 66050,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative output was 645,860,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The monthly output of crude steel was 73490,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative output was 746,250,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. The monthly output of steel was 124,210,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative output was 1,103,850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. Steel imports decreased by 1% year - on - year to 550,000 tons, and the cumulative imports decreased by 12.6% to 4,530,000 tons. Steel exports increased by 3.6% year - on - year to 10,470,000 tons, and the cumulative exports increased by 9.2% to 87,960,000 tons [4]. - **Weekly Data**: As of October 24, 2025, the weekly output of rebar was 2,070,700 tons, an increase of 591,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2%; the weekly output of wire rod was 883,200 tons, an increase of 365,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 7%; the weekly output of hot - rolled coil was 3,224,600 tons, an increase of 62,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%; the weekly output of cold - rolled coil was 860,700 tons, a decrease of 134,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.86%; the weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 1,614,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.82%. The total output of the five major steel products was 8,653,200 tons, an increase of 837,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.05% [5]. - **Production Profit**: On October 23, 2025, the profit of rebar - blast furnace in East China was 95, with a change of 10; in North China, it was - 11, with a change of 10; in Central China, it was 175, with a change of 0. The profit of rebar - electric furnace - valley electricity in East China was - 92, with a change of - 5; in North China, it was - 83, with a change of - 23; in Central China, it was - 80, with a change of - 1. The profit of rebar - electric furnace - flat electricity in East China was - 213, with a change of - 5; in North China, it was - 167, with a change of - 24; in Central China, it was - 210, with a change of 0. The profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in East China was 114, with a change of 20; in North China, it was 3, with a change of 20; in Central China, it was 95, with a change of 0 [20]. Steel Demand - **Building Materials Consumption**: The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 3.4%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 13.7%. The marginal improvement of cement delivery volume was observed, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, and the absolute level was comparable to that of the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11% [27][30]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption**: In September, the export volume increased month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, reaching a high for the same period. After August, the price difference between domestic and foreign hot - rolled coils rebounded, which was conducive to the recovery of export volume [36]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar inventory was higher than last year, but due to low production, it was expected to be normally destocked later. The rebar basis was relatively stable recently, with little change. The basis for the 01 contract was at a relatively low level in recent years. Usually, the basis weakened after November. Currently, the rebar production was lower than the same period last year, and the inventory was expected to enter the normal destocking stage, so the short - term basis was expected to run stably [2][50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The inventory of hot - rolled coil might further accumulate, and there might be inventory pressure later. The basis of the 01 contract of hot - rolled coil was running weakly and stably. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to decline but was still at the highest level for the same period. The inventories of cold - rolled coil and medium and heavy plate were also at high levels. Against the background of high pig iron production and hot - rolled coil production, the inventory pressure might drive the basis to run weakly [2][54]. Steel Price Spreads - **Spread between Hot - Rolled Coil and Rebar**: The export of hot - rolled coil was expected to continue to improve, and the spread increased this week. However, considering the relative inventory, the pressure on hot - rolled coil was greater, and the spread was expected to narrow again [2]. - **Rebar Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of rebar ran weakly at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - to - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month - to - month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slightly discounted state. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tended to be looser, and the spread might form a reverse - arbitrage pattern [64].

碳酸锂周报： 去库节奏加快，碳酸锂偏强运行 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.10.24 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量继续增加，周度产量维持在2万以上并创下年内新高。行业平均开工率回升至50%以上，分原料来看， 锂辉石增量受限，云母和盐湖贡献一定增量。 【需求端】乘联分会发布数据，10月1日—19日，全国乘用车市场新能源零售63.2万辆，较去年10月同期增长5%，较上月同期增 长2%，全国乘用车市场新能源零售渗透率为56.1%，今年以来累计零售950.2万辆，同比增长23%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发 67.6万辆，较去年10月同期增长6%，较上月同期增长5%，全国乘用车厂商新能源批发渗透率为58.5%，今年以来累计批发1112.3 万辆，同比增长30%。 【成本利润】本周矿端价格环比上升。非洲SC 5%报价为605美元/吨，环比上周上涨15美元；澳大利亚6%锂辉石到岸价为908美元 /吨，环比上周上涨73美元/吨；锂云母市场价格为2525元/吨，环比上周上涨195元。碳酸锂生产成本为68679元/吨，环比上周增 加1537元，碳酸锂行业利润为7424元/吨 ...

沪铜策略分享 铜牛徐行—供应重构和价格新中枢 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-10-24 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】宏观和基本面共振，前期铜多单继续持有，长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 铜作为新时代的"黄金"，在中美全面竞争的背景下，其战略价值不断跃升。建议铜前期多单继续 持有，风物宜放长量。短期铜波动加大，产业套保降低仓位，控制风险。交易保持定力和耐心， 不要因为贪婪盲目追高，也不要因为恐惧回撤而丢掉筹码。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈的重要战 略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜长期看好。 短期沪铜关注区间【84500，89500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【10500，11000】美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：多单持有，不要盲目追高，新入场回调逢低试多 【风险提示】 政策不及预期，需求不足，中美关系 4 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 美联储10月议息会议临近，美通胀和就业数据即 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Central safety production assessment inspections are upcoming, and the resumption time of coal mines in Wuhai is unknown, so there is an expectation of tightening coking coal supply. At the same time, be vigilant about the negative feedback pressure from the finished product end. In the short - term, it is recommended to reduce long positions in coking coal and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on coking coal and short on coke. The reference range for the main coking coal contract is [1230, 1300], and for the main coke contract is [1690, 1830] [4]. - This week, coal - coke prices showed a strong upward trend, outperforming other black - series varieties. The main coking coal contract rose by 5.89%, and the main coke contract rose by 4.86%. Affected by factors such as safety supervision and environmental protection, domestic coal mine production decreased, and the iron - water output remained at around 2.4 million tons, with certain demand resilience, but downstream steel mill profits were significantly compressed [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - This week, coal - coke prices were strong, with the main coking coal contract up 5.89% and the main coke contract up 4.86%. Domestic coal mine production decreased due to safety and environmental factors, and the iron - water output was around 2.4 million tons. The downstream steel mill profits were compressed. From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports of Mongolian coal decreased by 3.85%. Recently, the number of customs - cleared vehicles at ports decreased. The second round of coke price increase was postponed, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase [5]. Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - The warehouse receipt cost of different coking coal varieties at different locations is provided, such as the warehouse receipt cost of Mongolian 5 in Tangshan on October 24, 2025, being 1233 yuan/ton [8]. Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average of the last month, and seasonality deviation of different coking coal contracts (January, May, September) are presented. For example, the basis of the January contract is 164, with a weekly change of - 23 [13]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal strengthened [14]. Supply - **Mine**: The daily average raw coal output of 523 mines this week was 1.9097 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous week; the daily average clean coal output was 761,100 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons [20]. - **Coal Washery**: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 266,700 tons, an increase of 56,000 tons compared to the previous week; the capacity utilization rate was 36.87%, an increase of 1.08% [23]. Import - From January to September, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 6.45% year - on - year. The cumulative imports of Mongolian coal decreased by 3.85%. Details of imports from different countries are provided, including Mongolia, Russia, Canada, Australia, and others [24][26]. Auction Data - The coking coal auction data shows that the listed volume this week was 1.4937 million tons, an increase of 241,200 tons compared to the previous week; the成交 rate was 93.31%, an increase of 3.77 percentage points; the non -成交 rate was 6.69%, a decrease of 3.77 percentage points [30]. Total Inventory and Distribution - No specific summary of total inventory is provided. The inventory distribution shows changes in coking coal inventory in different locations over time [33][34]. Coke Spot Price - Coke spot prices remained stable [37]. Coking Profit - The coking profit decreased compared to the previous week. For example, the national coking profit on October 23, 2025, was - 41 yuan, a decrease of 28 yuan compared to the previous week [41]. Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, average of the last month, and seasonality deviation of different coke contracts (January, May, September) are presented. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 120, with a weekly change of - 38 [43]. Month - to - Month Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of coke strengthened [45]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: No specific supply data is provided. - **Demand**: This week, the daily average coke consumption was 1.079 million tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons compared to the previous week; the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79 percentage points [51]. Total Inventory and Distribution - The total coke inventory on October 24, 2025, was 891,890 tons, a slight increase of 0.01 tons compared to the previous week. The inventory distribution shows changes in coke inventory in steel mills, independent coking enterprises, and ports [56]. Registered Warehouse Receipts and Futures Positions - No specific summary of registered warehouse receipts and futures positions is provided. TOP20 Seats Net Long Positions - The net long positions of the TOP20 seats in coking coal and coke since July 1 are mentioned, but no specific data is summarized [62].