1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Bullish [1][12][13] - **Coking Coal**: Bullish [1][16][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Bullish [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti-involution narrative continues to boost market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up steel prices. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils are relatively stable, while the downstream demand for rebar has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. The iron ore market has a strong fundamental situation, with rising iron production and decreasing arrivals of foreign ores. The coking coal market is also strong, with increasing production and high imports. The coke market follows the trend of coking coal. The ferromanganese market is supported by rigid demand from iron production, and the ferrosilicon market follows the coal price trend, but the high level of warehouse receipts restricts price increases [1][4][8]. 3. Summaries by Variety Steel - **Rebar**: The anti-involution narrative boosts market expectations, and rising raw material prices drive up prices. Iron production has returned to pre-parade levels, but rebar production and apparent demand have decreased, and inventory has increased. Currently in the demand verification stage, downstream demand has not improved, and there is pressure on inventory and warehouse receipts. Policy expectations drive the market to be strong [1][4][5]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand have increased, and inventory is basically stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the anti-involution expectation boosts market confidence, leading to a strong market [1][4][5]. Iron Ore - Iron production has recovered rapidly. Attention should be paid to steel mills' profits and production cuts. Port inventory has increased, and steel mills have slightly replenished their stocks. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have decreased significantly, and the fundamental situation is strong. The ore price is oscillating upwards [1][8][9]. Coke - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, and coking coal leads the black series to rise. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and coking profits have decreased, but coke production is relatively stable. Iron production has increased significantly, and the demand for raw materials is high. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows the trend of coking coal [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - The anti-involution expectation has heated up again, strengthening market confidence. Coking coal production has increased slightly, and Mongolian coal imports are at a high level. Iron production has also increased significantly, ensuring the demand for raw materials. Total inventory has decreased, and there is no significant short-term supply-demand contradiction. The market is strong under a favorable policy environment [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: In the context of production resumption in the production areas, supply pressure continues to increase. The recovery of iron production provides rigid support for the demand for ferromanganese. Attention should be paid to the new round of replenishment by steel mills. The supply-demand contradiction has yet to accumulate, and the cost side strongly supports the price. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the price up [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. Warehouse receipts are on a downward trend from a high level, but the absolute value is still high, restricting price increases. The short-term anti-involution sentiment drives the market to follow the coal price trend [1][20][21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously Bearish [1] - L: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PP: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PVC: Short-Term Rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously Bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously Bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously Bullish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Asphalt: Cautiously Bearish [3] - Glass: Short-Term Rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Short-Term Rebound [3] Core Views - The geopolitical disturbances in the crude oil market do not change the situation of oversupply, and the oil price is trending downward. The cost of LPG has insufficient upward momentum, and a bearish outlook is maintained. The market sentiment for L, PP, PVC, and glass has improved, and attention is paid to the basis repair. The supply of PX and PTA is expected to be tight in balance, while the supply of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, and caution is exercised. Methanol and urea are expected to have limited downside, and long positions are considered. The price of natural gas has fallen, and asphalt is under pressure [1][2][3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.11%, Brent rising 0.67%, and SC rising 1.66% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, leading to increased supply pressure. The U.S. crude oil consumption peak season has ended, and the demand support for oil prices is gradually decreasing. In the medium to long term, there is a high probability that the price will be pressured to around $60 [5]. - **Fundamentals**: The attack on the Russian port by Ukraine led to a short-term rebound in oil prices. OPEC predicts that the global oil demand growth rate will remain at 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break-even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [485 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 15, the PG main contract closed at 4,513 yuan/ton, up 1.51% month-on-month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [9]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of upstream crude oil has downward potential, and LPG is under pressure. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased slightly. The inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Add short positions. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4450 - 4550] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L main contract closed at 7,209 yuan/ton, down 0.2%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, but the upward drive is insufficient. This week's production has declined, and it is expected to rebound next week. The demand for agricultural films is increasing, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7150 - 7250] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract closed at 6,939 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: The cost support is insufficient. The production has increased, but it is expected to decline this week. The downstream demand is entering the peak season, and the raw material demand is gradually increasing [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for dips to buy. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract closed at 4,847 yuan/ton, down 0.9%. The spot price was stable, and the basis strengthened slightly [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased for 12 consecutive weeks. The production is expected to decline next week. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure remains [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase short positions. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4800 - 4900] [26]. PX - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PX spot price was 6,864 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The PX11 contract closed at 6,712 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply-side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The demand-side PTA processing fee is low, and the device maintenance has increased the load in the short term. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the inventory is still high [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips for intraday short-term and hold short positions at high levels. PX511 is recommended to focus on the range of [6750 - 6850] [32]. PTA - **Market Review**: On September 12, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,565 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton. The TA01 contract closed at 4,648 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The PTA processing fee is low, and the supply pressure has increased due to the resumption of production of previous maintenance devices and the expected new device production. The market has expectations for the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to expand the PTA processing fee. Buy on dips for intraday short-term [35]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,378 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton. The EG01 contract closed at 4,319 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly reduced their loads, and overseas devices have changed little. The arrival and import volumes are still low. The market has expectations for the consumption peak season, and the demand is slightly better. The inventory is low, which supports the price. The market is trading on the expectation of new device production, and the price is oscillating weakly [39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and focus on opportunities to short at high levels. EG01 is recommended to focus on the range of [4290 - 4340] [40]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 12, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,317 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The methanol main contract closed at 2,379 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton [41]. - **Basic Logic**: The methanol device maintenance has increased, and the start-up load has decreased slightly. The overseas device load has declined but is still at a high level, and the import volume is high. The demand has slightly stopped falling, and the social inventory has continued to accumulate. The cost support is slightly stable [42]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not short but focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 is recommended to focus on the range of [2390 - 2420] [44]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The short-term supply of urea is tight, but the supply is expected to be loose. The domestic demand is weak, and the export is good. The factory inventory has continued to accumulate, and the port inventory has decreased. The valuation of urea is not high [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The urea futures price is under pressure. Focus on opportunities to buy on dips for the 01 contract in the medium to long term [2]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The geopolitical risk has decreased, and the natural gas price has fallen. The cooling weather has increased the combustion demand, and the winter gas storage has supported the price [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Not provided in the text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil has rebounded after OPEC+ increased production, but the supply is in excess, and the price is weak. The supply and demand are generally loose, and the valuation is high [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing. The new production line has been ignited, and the supply is under pressure. The terminal demand is still weak, and attention is paid to inventory destocking [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended [3]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the text. - **Basic Logic**: The market sentiment has improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks. The demand is mostly for rigid needs, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short-term long positions are recommended, and medium to long-term short positions are considered [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, they are expected to have a short - term decline due to factors like increased inventory and unfavorable data [1]. - **Short - term decline adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are in a short - term decline adjustment phase. Although there are positive factors in the fundamentals of palm oil, current data such as inventory and export affect its price. For soybean oil, bio - diesel policy obstacles and high inventory are the main reasons [1]. - **Short - term adjustment**: Rapeseed oil is in a short - term adjustment state, affected by Sino - Canadian trade disputes and Sino - Australian trade development [1]. - **Cautious bullish**: Cotton is cautiously bullish. Although the US cotton export demand is weak, the supply in the Chinese market is still tight before the new cotton is listed, and the USDA has further lowered China's new - year inventory - to - sales ratio [1]. - **Cautious bearish**: Jujube is cautiously bearish. The new - season jujube is expected to have a reduced yield, but the reduction is not as large as in 2023/24, and there is still pressure considering the carry - over inventory [1]. - **Cautious bullish**: For live pigs, the spot and near - month contracts have limited further decline space, and the far - month contracts are expected to rise with the reduction of production capacity over time [1]. 3. Summaries Based on Different Varieties Soybean Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 12, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 million tons, up 2.5 million tons week - on - week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 733.2 million tons, up 1.5 million tons week - on - week; the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 million tons, up 2.82 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3042 yuan/ton, down 1.20% from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 3062.29 yuan/ton, down 0.56% [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA September supply - demand report was slightly bearish for US soybeans. The increase in soybean meal inventory and unfavorable domestic and foreign data led to a decline in the price, but the decline space was limited due to the proximity to the spot price and Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 12, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 7.4 million tons, down 2.7 million tons week - on - week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, down 0.05 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 2504 yuan/ton, down 1.07% from the previous day, and the national average spot price was 2665.26 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [5][7]. - **Market Analysis**: Trade policies and high inventory made the factors for rapeseed meal mixed. The Sino - Canadian trade negotiation was still ongoing, and the rapeseed meal trend mainly followed that of soybean meal. Attention should be paid to the results of recent Sino - Canadian meetings [1][7]. Palm Oil - **Price and Inventory**: As of September 12, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons week - on - week. The futures price of the main contract closed at 9422 yuan/ton, up 1.36% from the previous day. The national average price was 9398 yuan/ton, up 0.43% [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The bio - diesel policy in the US encountered obstacles, and the inventory in Malaysia increased in August, with average export data in the first 15 days of September. However, considering the unchanged fundamentals of biodiesel, attention should be paid to the opportunity of bullish after the adjustment [1][9]. Cotton - **Price and Inventory**: The Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2601 closed at 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day, and the domestic spot price rose 0.01% to 15256 yuan/ton. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreased to 127 million tons [10][11]. - **Market Analysis**: The US cotton soil moisture weakened, but the export demand was still weak. In the Chinese market, the supply was still tight before the new cotton was listed, and the USDA further lowered China's new - year inventory - to - sales ratio. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand was weak. Before the new cotton was listed in large quantities, range - bound operations were recommended [1][13]. Jujube - **Price and Inventory**: The jujube main contract CJ2601 closed at 10865 yuan/ton, down 2.90% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample points was 9321 tons, down 89 tons week - on - week [14][15]. - **Market Analysis**: The new - season jujube was expected to have a reduced yield, but the reduction was not as large as in 2023/24. After considering the carry - over inventory, there might not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand for stocking was not obvious. It was recommended to be cautious in trading on the futures market and look for short - selling opportunities when the market was hyped [1][16]. Live Pig - **Price and Inventory**: The live pig main contract Lh2511 closed at 13275 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day, and the domestic live pig spot price rose 0.07% to 13510 yuan/ton. The national sample enterprise's live pig存栏量 was 3782.4 million tons, up 0.51% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the supply pressure was strong. In the medium term, the live pig出栏量 was expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity was gradually being reduced. The demand was expected to improve in the future. The spot and near - month contracts had limited decline space, and the far - month contracts were expected to rise over time [1][19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量环比回升至阅兵前水平，绝对水平较高。螺纹产量及表需环比下降，库存继续 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 增加。目前处于验证需求成色阶段，下游需求仍未改善，同时库存及仓单存在一定压力， | | | | 或拖累行情中期表现。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比回升，绝对水平均较高，库存基本平稳。铁水产量回升迅速，钢材 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势，阶段性利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期仍有回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | 多单持有 | 铁水产量快速修复，关注钢企利润及减产情况。港口累库，钢厂小幅补库。外矿发到货 | | ★ | | 双降，降幅较大，基本面偏强。矿价震荡偏强。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭第一轮提降落地。目前焦化利润尚可，焦企存在生产积极性。铁水产量环比大幅回 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 升，原料需求较高。焦炭本身供需相对平衡，跟随焦煤波动，短期或区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | 谨慎看空 | 焦煤产量环比回升，符合市场预期。蒙煤通关量处于较高水平，进口量高位运行。铁水 | | ...

20250913棉系周报： 新棉上市在即 需求不振下棉价承压运行 农产品团队 贾晖 Z000183 余德福 Z0019060 曹以康 F03133687 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间：2025年9月13日 周度综述：摘要 | 因素 | 性质 | 观点概览 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1、美国劳工统计局公布最新数据。 美国8月CPI同比2.9%，持平预期； CPI环比0.4%，略高于预期的0.3%；核心CP同比 | | | | 3.1%，环比0.3%，均持平预期和前值。美国上周初请失业金人数增加2.7万人至26.3万人，创2021年10月以来的最高。数据 | | 宏观 | 中性 | 公布后,市场充分消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景。 | | | | 2、财政部部长蓝佛安在全国人大常委会作报告指出,下一步用好用足更加积极的财政政策、全力支持稳就业稳外贸,加 | | | | 快培育壮大发展新动能,进一步保障和改善民生,持续用力防范化解重点领域风险,不断提升财政治理效能和水平。 | | 供应 | 中性偏空 | 1、巴西方面，据CONAB9月数据显示，本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For silicon manganese, the supply - demand contradiction is yet to accumulate, the cost side strongly supports the price, but new warehouse receipts in the short term will suppress the upward price limit. It is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5750, 6000] [4][5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the warehouse receipts are on a high - level downward trend but still high in absolute value, suppressing the upward price limit. It is expected to move within a range following coal prices in the short term, and it is recommended to participate mainly through short - term long positions, with the main contract reference range being [5550, 5700] [49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silicon Manganese Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The weekly output has returned to the pre - parade level, and the operating rate has increased by 0.93%. Northern production areas are relatively stable, while some factories in southern Guangxi and Guizhou have resumed production. Yunnan's operating rate has remained at around 95% for three consecutive weeks, and the daily output is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years. As of September 12, the national silicon manganese output was 214,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,295 tons; the operating rate was 47.38%, a week - on - week increase of 0.93% [4][8] - Demand: The molten iron output has returned to the pre - parade level, but the rebar output has decreased week - on - week, dragging down the demand for silicon manganese. As of September 12, the weekly demand for silicon manganese was 122,314 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,354 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the first - round inquiry price of a landmark steel mill is 5,800 yuan/ton [4][13] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 166,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,300 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 61,400, a decrease of 1,400 from last Friday. As of September 12, the total valid forecasts are 2,994, an increase of 1,995 from the previous day. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 322,200 tons, and the inventory has stopped decreasing and started to increase [4] Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices at ports have rebounded slightly this week. The total shipment volume of the three major countries is 949,300 tons, basically the same as the previous period. The arrival volume is 359,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 231,900 tons, with the reduction mainly from South Africa. The electricity price in Ningxia has increased by 0.02 yuan/kWh, and the current comprehensive electricity price of manufacturers is 0.4 yuan/kWh, while the electricity prices in other production areas remain stable [4] Market Price - As of September 12, the market price of 6517 in Inner Mongolia is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it is 5,600 (+ 50) yuan/ton; in Guangxi, it is 5,650 (- 30) yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 5,850 (+ 100) yuan/ton [7] River Steel Silicon Manganese Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon manganese tendering by River Steel is 5,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 17,000 tons, an increase of 900 tons compared to August and 6,500 tons compared to the same period last year [16] Silicon Iron Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: This week, the national output and operating rate of silicon iron have decreased week - on - week. Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have stable operations, while Shaanxi has slightly reduced production. As of September 12, the weekly output of silicon iron is 113,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 tons; the operating rate is 34.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5% [49][54] - Demand: This week, the demand for silicon iron converted from the five major steel products is 19,737 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 339 tons. The new round of steel procurement has started, and the inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by a landmark steel mill is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity has increased by 317 tons compared to August. In terms of non - steel demand, the magnesium ingot output in August is basically the same as that in July, with a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [49] Inventory Situation - The total enterprise inventory is 69,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,400 tons; the number of warehouse receipts is 16,500, a decrease of 1,800 from last Friday. The total delivery inventory (including forecasts) is 85,300 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons from last Friday [49] Cost and Profit - Recently, the semi - coke market has been stable. The current small - material quotation in Fugu area is 640 - 690 yuan/ton. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai have both increased. In the short term, the cost side of silicon iron has strong support [49] Market Price - The spot prices in the main production areas have increased by 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [52] River Steel Silicon Iron Tendering - The inquiry price for September silicon iron tendering by River Steel is 5,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 330 yuan/ton compared to August. The procurement quantity is 3,151 tons, an increase of 317 tons compared to August and 650 tons compared to the same period last year [60]

沪铜周报 美联储降息预期拉满，铜震荡走强 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-09-12 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】美非农大幅下修，美国CPI数据符合预期，美联储9月降息预期拉满，铜宏微共振， 铜上方空间打开，建议铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现 【策略展望】 整体而言，宏观情绪积极，美联储9月降息预期拉满，美元疲软铜价走强。基本面上，矿供应扰 动和金九银十旺季需求复苏，国内铜社会库存偏紧，铜宏微共振，上方空间打开。短期建议前期 铜多单继续持有，部分可逐步逢高止盈兑现，企业卖出套保可逢高布局时机，锁定合理利润，警 惕美联储降息预期落空和需求证伪带来铜价高位回落风险。 中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源和重要的贵金属平替资产配置，叠加铜精矿紧张和绿色 铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。沪铜关注区间【79000，83000】，伦铜关注区间【9900，11000】 美元/吨 【操作策略】 策略：多单持有 【风险提示】 政策不及 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures first declined and then rose, with a similar pattern to the previous week, showing a generally weak and volatile trend. After the military parade, pig iron production quickly recovered to over 2.4 million tons. The supply - demand of hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, while the contradiction in steel was mainly concentrated in rebar. The inventory in Hangzhou continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in history, and the warehouse receipt volume kept increasing, leading to rising delivery pressure. The contradiction in the raw material end was not obvious for the time being. The high pig iron production supported the demand for raw materials. The iron ore inventory was stable, the recovery speed of coking coal production was average, and the overall inventory decreased [3]. - Currently, the downstream demand for construction steel has not shown the characteristics of the peak season, and the month - on - month change in apparent demand is not significant. The inventory in East China and the delivery pressure are expected to continue to suppress the upside space of rebar. However, September - October is also a period prone to macro - policy disturbances. In 2023, the "trillion - yuan treasury bond" and last year's "924" market both brought about stage - by - stage increases. Currently, the overall valuation of the black series is not high, and the policy orientation of "anti - involution" and "raising the price level" will also limit the downside space of the market. At present, it is a game between weak overall demand and a strong macro - environment. The negative feedback contradiction in the current supply - demand level is accumulating, and the risk of a callback still needs to be vigilant [3]. - In terms of spot - futures, the price difference between rebar in Guangzhou and that in East China is at an absolute low. At the same time, the 01 basis based on East China is running stably and strongly. A 01 cash - and - carry operation can be considered for Guangzhou rebar [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In July 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 70.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%, and the cumulative production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The monthly production of crude steel was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4%, and the cumulative production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. The monthly production of steel was 122.95 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, and the cumulative production was 860.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The monthly steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.4%, and the cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. The monthly steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.4%, and the cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. Five - Major Steel Weekly Data - As of September 12, 2025, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1193 million tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 1.9807 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The inventory was 6.5386 million tons, an increase of 138,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 32.46%. For wire rods, the weekly production was 0.849 million tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8%. The weekly consumption was 0.84 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9%. The inventory was 1.2038 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13%. For hot - rolled coils, the weekly production was 3.2514 million tons, an increase of 109,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 3.2616 million tons, an increase of 208,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. For cold - rolled coils, the weekly production was 0.8467 million tons, a decrease of 12,400 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.59%. The weekly consumption was 0.8616 million tons, an increase of 41,700 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.35%. The inventory was 1.7837 million tons, a decrease of 15,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. For medium - heavy plates, the weekly production was 1.5067 million tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.09%. The weekly consumption was 1.4864 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.56%. The inventory was 1.8868 million tons, an increase of 20,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.72%. The total weekly production of the five major steels was 8.5724 million tons, a decrease of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.26%. The total weekly consumption was 8.43 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. The total inventory was 15.15 million tons, an increase of 139,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.76% [6]. Steel Production Profit - On September 11, 2025, for rebar - blast furnace in East China, the profit was 75 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 3 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 123 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 197 with a change of 0. In North China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 55 with a change of - 10; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 63 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 147 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 96 with a change of 0. In Central China, for rebar - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the profit was - 55 with a change of 0; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the profit was - 185 with a change of 0; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the profit was 175 with a change of - 10 [21]. Steel Demand - In the real estate high - frequency data, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 4.5%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 10% [28]. - Regarding cement and concrete demand, the cement outbound volume has been stable recently, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27%. The concrete delivery volume is relatively balanced, and the absolute level is comparable to that of the same period last year, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14% [31]. - In August, the steel export volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level in the same period [37]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis maintained a relatively strong trend. The basis for the October contract was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the basis for the January 01 contract was at a neutral level. Currently, the rebar warehouse receipt volume is the highest in the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain at a relatively high level. The hot - rolled coil basis remained stable this week [51][56]. - The rebar monthly spread was running at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract. The 10 - 1 month spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with fewer warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [61][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of wide - range fluctuation. Supply continues to increase, but terminal demand is strong, evidenced by the reduction in total inventory. Prices are supported in the short - term and are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Overview - The State Council plans to conduct comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions. China's August PPI was - 2.9% year - on - year, with the previous value at - 3.6%, and the month - on - month change turned flat from a 0.2% decline last month. August CPI was - 0.4% year - on - year, with the previous value at 0%, and the month - on - month change was flat. China's exports in August increased by 4.4% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 1.3%. US inflation was in line with expectations, with August CPI increasing by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The August core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The US non - farm annual revision was worse than expected, with a downward revision of 911,000. The market is pricing in three interest rate cuts. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged [3]. 3.2 Supply - side - This week, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, reaching over 20,000 tons weekly and hitting a new high for the year. The significant increase in spodumene production offset the reduction in mica and salt lake production. As of September 12, lithium carbonate production was 21,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 250 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.64%, a week - on - week increase of 0.58% [4][9]. 3.3 Demand - side - From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 181,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period last September and a 1% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 59.6%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.752 million units, a 25% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers was 179,000 units, a 5% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last September and a 12% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy manufacturers was 58.1%, and the cumulative wholesale volume this year was 9.122 million units, a 33% year - on - year increase [4]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore decreased. The African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 12, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 65,367 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,830 yuan, and the industry profit was 7,809 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 920 yuan [4][48][50]. 3.5 Total Inventory - As of September 11, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons compared to last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 36,213 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,262 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory continued to decline, the smelter inventory decreased rapidly, and the downstream material factories continued to replenish their stocks [5][33]. 3.6 Market Outlook - This week, the new quotes for battery - grade lithium carbonate mostly fluctuated around the flat - water level, the basis strengthened, and the large - discount supplies decreased compared to the previous period. Lithium salt factories still had a price - holding sentiment, and most of the spot orders were pre - sold. The restocking enthusiasm of downstream material factories was fair, and market circulation improved. Overall, lithium carbonate production continued to increase, but the total inventory also decreased synchronously, indicating strong terminal demand. Prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations in the short - term [5]. 3.7 Price List of the Lithium - battery Industry - The prices of most products in the lithium - battery industry decreased this week. For example, the 6% CIF spodumene price was $800 per ton, a 3.61% decrease compared to last week; the battery - grade lithium carbonate price was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week. However, some products such as the 523 ternary material and 523 ternary precursor saw price increases [6]. 3.8 Market Review - As of September 12, LC2511 closed at 71,160 yuan per ton, a 4.2% decrease compared to last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan per ton, a 3.4% decrease compared to last week, and the basis changed from a premium to a slight discount. The main contract position was 3.09 million. The main contract mostly declined this week. The news of Ningde's resumption of production had a negative impact on market sentiment [7]. 3.9 Production of Other Products - As of September 12, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,235 tons, a week - on - week increase of 115 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,307 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.9%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2% [11][14]. 3.10 Downstream Inventory - As of September 12, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 49,550 tons, an increase of 1,350 tons compared to last week. The finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly, and the industry was in a situation of strong supply and demand [37]. 3.11 Cost - side - As of September 12, the African SC 5% was quoted at $610 per ton, a decrease of $20 per ton compared to last week; the Australian 6% spodumene CIF price was $800 per ton, a decrease of $30 per ton compared to last week; the lithium mica market price was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. Lithium ore prices fluctuated around lithium salt prices, with low spot circulation [48]. 3.12 Profit of Other Products - As of September 12, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,514 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 938 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,600 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 184 yuan. The production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,362 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 573 yuan per ton, and it was in a loss state of 943 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week [53][56].

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑 PTA ★ 谨慎看空 加工费整体偏低，新装置投产预期叠加前期检修装置复产，开工负荷略有 提升，供应端压力有所增加；市场存"金九银十"消费旺季预期，需求端 略显偏好，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。9 月 pta 供需紧平衡 预期四季度宽松，叠加美联储 9 月降息概率增加，地缘风险尚未解除，市 场风险偏好提升。OPEC+9 月按计划增产，油价震荡偏弱。基差偏弱，但 TA 加工费整体偏低，关注做扩加工费机会。策略：空单谨持，关注做扩 PTA 加工费机会。 乙二醇 ★ 谨慎看空 国内装置略微降负、海外装置变动不大，到港及进口相对较低；市场仍存 消费旺季预期，下游聚酯及终端织造开工负荷持续回升。同时乙二醇库存 整体偏低，对盘面价格有所支撑。9 月累库压力不大。乙二醇库存整体偏 低，对盘面价格有所支撑。近期市场交易新装置投产预期（久泰新材料近 期投产、裕龙石化 9 月底前投产），区间震荡偏弱，谨慎看空。策略：空 单持有，关注逢高布空机会。 甲醇 ★ 谨慎看空 本周整体检修量有所提升，开工负荷下滑但依旧维持高位；海外甲醇装置 负荷再次提升且处于同期高位，与此同时，甲醇月度到港量亦处近五年同 ...