中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 美联储官员表示，未来降息次数可能多于两次，另外数据显示美国滞涨概率增加， | | 黄金 | 谨慎做多 | 短期盘面反弹。中长期来看，多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资 | | | | 产相关性较低，长期黄金继续战略配置。【770-794】 | | | | 短期事件影响情绪正砸回温，白银基本面变化不大，各国宽财政款货币刺激，工业 | | 白银 | 企稳试多 | 需求坚挺，长期向上趋势不变。短期关注调整结束之后的做多机会。【8800-9145】 | | | | 美非农数据爆冷，美联储 9 月降息预期回升，中美制造业 PMI 均低于荣枯线。需求 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 淡季叠加库存累库，铜反弹力度偏弱，上方空间受限，短期建议等待铜充分回调， | | | 背靠 | 77500-78000 逢低试多，中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【77500，79500】 | | | | 锌矿供应宽松，加工费继续上修，7 月锌锭产量超预期，需求淡季，中下游开工走 | | 锌 | 反弹沽空 | 弱，建议 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Most products are rated as "Cautiously Bearish", including LPG, L, PP, PVC, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, glass, soda ash, caustic soda, urea, propylene [1][2] - Some products are rated as "Bearish", such as methanol and asphalt [2] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most products, the market is facing various pressures such as supply increase, weak demand, and lack of macro - positive factors, leading to a downward or cautious outlook [1][2] - For example, in the case of crude oil, OPEC+ production increase and the entry into the second half of the peak season put pressure on oil prices [3][6] Group 3: Summaries by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On August 1, international oil prices fell. WTI dropped 2.79%, Brent dropped 2.83%, and SC dropped 0.73% [5] - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in September, and the peak season is in the second half, so the oil price center may decline [6] - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ will increase production by 54.7 million barrels per day in September, and US crude oil production in May increased by 2.4 million barrels per day. US commercial crude oil and strategic crude oil reserves increased [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [505 - 520] [8] LPG - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the PG main contract closed at 3987 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.70% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price fell, and Saudi Arabia lowered the CP contract price. Although the fundamentals are okay, the cost - end is the main drag [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of PG [3850 - 3950] [13] L - **Market Performance**: L2509 contract closed at 7317 yuan/ton (down 33 yuan). The North China basis was - 97 (down 7) [17] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. Most devices restarted, increasing supply pressure. Social inventory has increased for 5 consecutive weeks [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions, and industrial customers can sell hedging [19] PP - **Market Performance**: PP2509 closed at 6098 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the East China basis was 19 (up 13) [24] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak, and there is still pressure to reduce inventory. New production capacity will be released in the third quarter, and downstream replenishment is insufficient [26] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread [26] PVC - **Market Performance**: V2601 closed at 5015 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), and the Changzhou basis was - 95 (down 4) [31] - **Basic Logic**: The market returns to weak fundamentals. New devices are put into operation, and demand is in the off - season. Social inventory has increased for 6 consecutive weeks [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of V [4900 - 5100] [32] PX - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of PX in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6812 yuan/ton (down 116 yuan) [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, inventory is high, and there is no macro - positive factor recently [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. Pay attention to the range of PX [6720 - 6840] [38] PTA - **Market Performance**: On August 1, PTA in East China was 4740 yuan/ton (down 86 yuan); TA09 closed at 4744 yuan/ton (down 64 yuan) [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and the tight - balance situation in August is expected to ease [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, sell call options, and pay attention to the possibility of expanding the processing fee. Pay attention to the range of TA [4720 - 4800] [42] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4480 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan); EG09 closed at 4405 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [44] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices have slightly increased their loads, but arrivals and imports are still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory is low [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions (partially reduce), sell call options, and pay attention to low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of EG [4340 - 4410] [46] Glass - **Market Performance**: The spot market price decreased, and the futures price center moved down [49] - **Basic Logic**: There is no super - expected policy in the Politburo meeting, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line. Inventory is mainly transferred, not consumed by the terminal market [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of FG [1070 - 1130] [51] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The spot price of heavy soda ash was stable, and the futures price rose. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [54] - **Basic Logic**: The hype of macro - policies has cooled down, and the supply - demand surplus pattern has not improved significantly. Warehouse receipts and forecasts increase, and industrial hedging exerts pressure [55] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait patiently for the pullback to be in place [55] Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price closed down. The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [59] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side device maintenance led to a decline in industry start - up. Downstream alumina plants resumed production, but inventory is high year - on - year [60] - **Strategy Recommendation**: None provided in the text Methanol - **Market Performance**: On August 1, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2385 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), and the main 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [62] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and foreign devices resumed production, increasing supply pressure. Demand is expected to weaken, and social inventory is accumulating [63] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce long positions, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high levels, and sell call options. Pay attention to the range of MA [2350 - 2400] [64] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and demand decreases, and the inventory is accumulating [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try short positions lightly. Pay attention to the range of BU [3550 - 3650] [2] Propylene - **Basic Logic**: Supply and demand are loose, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions or conduct a 1 - 2 reverse spread, and go long on the PP processing fee on the futures market [2]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，螺纹产量基本持平，需求环比回落，库存有所上升。铁水产量 | | | | 环比略降，绝对水平仍高。基本面体现淡季特征，市场情绪逐渐降温，价 | | | | 格中枢下移，后期行情或切换产业逻辑，中期或有回调，短期注意反复可 | | | | 能。【3150，3220】 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量、表需小幅回升，库存略增，基本面相对平稳，矛盾有限。热卷 | | | | 出口利润回落明显，后期出口或受一定影响。市场失望总体降温，中期价 | | | | 格中枢或下移。【3350，3420】 | | 铁矿石 | 空单持有 | 基本面看，铁水产量再降，供给端后续发到货预计有增量。港口去库，钢 厂库存增加。基本面中性偏弱，政治局会议阶段性不及预期，黑色商品价 | | | | 格整体有回调压力。【760，810】 | | 焦炭 | 谨慎看空 | 会议未释放刺激政策自己反内卷的增量信息，市场情绪有所降温。焦炭现 | | | | 货自前期低点涨幅落后于期货，现货连续提涨。焦企利润仍不佳，生 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes multiple agricultural product futures, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, presenting different views and trading strategies for each based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the next two weeks, it is expected to be in a large - range oscillation due to the combination of weak fundamentals and cost support from Sino - US trade tariffs. The main contract range is [2980, 3040] [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It is also in a large - range oscillation with multiple long and short factors. The main contract range is [2620, 2750]. Attention should be paid to rapeseed planting weather, Sino - Canadian relations, and Sino - Australian progress [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The market outlook is bullish in the long - term, but there may be short - term adjustments. In July, there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil, which may suppress short - term prices. The main contract range is [8600, 8950] [1]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. Although the valuation is low, it is necessary to be cautious when short - selling. Consider gradually taking profit on previous short positions. The main contract range is [13400, 13700] [1]. - **Jujube**: It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. After the price fills the gap, there is significant upward pressure. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound driven by macro - sentiment. The main contract range is [10525, 11275] [1]. - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to be cautiously bullish. In the short - term, there is support for the price, and the near - month contract is difficult to break through downward. In the medium - and long - term, pay attention to the intensity of capacity reduction. Consider gradually taking profit on near - month short positions and establishing long positions on far - month contracts after the spot price stabilizes. The main contract range is [13950, 14350] [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 808.5 million tons, up 10.60 million tons week - on - week and 22.85 million tons year - on - year. 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 645.59 million tons, up 3.35 million tons week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory was 104.31 million tons, up 4.47 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 3000 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2977.71 yuan/ton, up 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [2]. - **Factors**: The neutral climate forecast and smooth US soybean planting weather, along with the inventory accumulation period in China until the end of September, contribute to weak fundamentals. However, Sino - US trade tariffs provide cost support [1]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of July 25, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 13.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons week - on - week, and national rapeseed meal inventory was 66.54 million tons, down 1.33 million tons week - on - week [6]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 2699 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 1.32% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2658.42 yuan/ton, down 30.53 yuan or 1.14% [4]. - **Factors**: The recovery of global rapeseed production, high domestic inventory, and low import due to high tariffs support the price. However, the improving import profit of Canadian rapeseed and low spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal put pressure on the price [1]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of July 25, 2025, national commercial inventory was 61.55 million tons, up 2.41 million tons week - on - week and 10.88 million tons year - on - year [8]. - **Price**: The main contract's closing price was 8910 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8990 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 0.03% [7]. - **Factors**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are bullish for consumption, but the possible inventory accumulation in Malaysian palm oil in July may suppress short - term prices [1]. Cotton - **Production**: In the US, the new cotton growth is good despite slightly worse soil moisture. In China, the actual sown area and yield per unit are expected to increase, with the national average yield per unit expected to rise by 2.5% and the output to reach over 7.4 million tons [11]. - **Inventory**: Domestic commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, but the replenishment of downstream finished products has slowed down recently [12]. - **Price**: The main contract CF2509 closed at 13585 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan or 0.48% from the previous day. The spot price was 15270 yuan/ton, down 288 yuan or 1.85% [9]. - **Factors**: Weak US cotton exports and reduced domestic demand due to slow replenishment of downstream products lead to a bearish outlook, but low valuation makes short - selling cautious [1]. Jujube - **Production**: The new - season jujube growth is good, and the expected production reduction is lower than previously thought [14]. - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10039 tons this week, down 51 tons week - on - week, but still higher than the same period last year [14]. - **Price**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10920 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan or 2.10% from the previous day [13]. - **Factors**: The weak fundamentals, limited implementation of the floor - price purchase order, and low demand in the off - season make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - term, the accelerated出栏 of second - fattened pigs and partial culling of sows by large farms may increase supply. In the medium - term, the increase in the number of new - born piglets from January to June 2025 indicates potential growth in出栏 in the second half of the year [18]. - **Price**: The main contract Lh2509 closed at 14055 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.14% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 14340 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.07% [16]. - **Factors**: The rebound of the price difference between standard and fat pigs drives some second - fattening speculation, providing support for the near - month contract. However, high long - term capacity requires attention to capacity reduction [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Under the guidance of the Ministry of Agriculture for orderly slaughter, some enterprises' early slaughter and the release of previously second - fattened pigs increase supply pressure. However, the considerable spread between standard and fat pigs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the bottom of pig prices [4]. - Medium - term: Piglets showed an increasing trend from January to June, so the second half of 2025 is expected to see an increase in the pig market, and over - optimism should be avoided [4]. - Long - term: The "anti - involution" process takes time. If capacity control measures are implemented, the number of pig slaughter is expected to decline in about ten months, which may push up far - month pig prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Performance - Pig prices: The national average pig price decreased by 0.94 yuan to 14.14 yuan/kg this month. Prices in various regions also declined [3][9]. - Sow prices: The average spot price of culled sows decreased by 0.78 yuan to 10.29 yuan/kg, and the average price of 50kg binary sows decreased by 0.95 yuan to 1,641.3 yuan/head [3][11]. - Piglet prices: The average price of 7kg piglets remained stable at 444.76 yuan/head, while the average price of 15kg piglets decreased by 48.27 yuan to 468.55 yuan/head [3][13]. 3.2 Key Data - Spot prices: Most prices showed changes, such as the national average price of 15kg piglets decreasing by 0.27 yuan to 36.37 yuan/kg [7]. - Short - term supply: The national pig inventory increased by 7160 thousand heads to 424470 thousand heads, and the average slaughter weight increased by 0.18 kg to 123.67 kg [7]. - Medium - term supply: The number of piglet births increased by 10.63 thousand heads to 554.02 thousand heads, and the survival rate remained at 92.7% [7]. - Long - term supply: The inventory of breeding sows increased by 10 thousand heads to 40430 thousand heads, and the culling volume of breeding sows increased by 3296 heads to 109413 heads [7]. - Demand side: The national pig slaughter rate increased by 0.05% to 26.8%, and the Shanghai Xijiao white - striped meat arrival volume decreased by 1100 heads to 5600 heads [7]. - Policy: The national pig - grain ratio decreased by 0.03 to 5.8 [7]. - Cost: The total cost of purchasing piglets increased by 16.32 yuan to 1719.30 yuan/head, and the self - breeding cost decreased by 7.68 yuan to 1585.76 yuan/head [7]. - Profit: The self - breeding profit increased by 0.57 yuan to 29.21 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased by 0.43 yuan to - 193.12 yuan/head [7]. 3.3 Short - term Supply - Inventory and slaughter: The official inventory in June was 424470 thousand heads, and the planned slaughter of sample enterprises in July increased. The average slaughter weight increased, and the post - slaughter weight of white - striped pigs decreased [23]. - Speculation: The spread between standard and fat pigs widened, and the proportion of large pigs remained at a high level [25]. 3.4 Medium - term Supply - Piglets: In June, the piglet survival rate remained stable, the number of piglet births increased, and the piglet feed sales increased slightly. The pig supply in Q4 2025 is expected to be high [30]. 3.5 Long - term Supply - Breeding sows: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased, the culling volume increased slightly, and the average number of healthy piglets per litter decreased slightly [32]. 3.6 Demand - Slaughter and sales: Affected by the off - season, demand was weak. The slaughter rate increased slightly, the fresh - sales rate decreased, the daily slaughter volume decreased, and the slaughter profit increased [37]. 3.7 Cost Analysis - Feed: The corn price decreased, and the soybean meal price increased [44]. - Pigs: The cost of purchasing piglets and self - breeding both decreased [46]. 3.8 Breeding Profit - Pigs: The self - breeding profit decreased, and the profit of purchasing piglets decreased further [48]. 3.9 Price Ratio - The national pig - grain ratio decreased, and the piglet feed - to - meat ratio remained high [50].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250801 Cotton Series Monthly Report: Weakening De-stocking Expectations due to Negative Demand Feedback, Waiting for Cotton Prices to Find the Bottom in the Off-season [1] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Team: Agricultural Products Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The negative feedback in demand has weakened the de-stocking expectations, and it is necessary to wait for cotton prices to find the bottom in the off-season [1] - In the short term, US cotton is expected to fluctuate weakly, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be bearish. For short positions, consider gradually reducing positions to take profits, and pay attention to the opportunity of low-cost long positions in far-month contracts after the market risk is further released [2] Summary by Directory Macro - According to the consensus of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks, both sides will continue to promote the extension of the suspended 24% part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures as scheduled. Pay attention to Trump's final decision before August 12 [2] - The Federal Reserve has kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Recently, the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has cooled sharply under the impact of Fed Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks [2] - The domestic Politburo meeting continued to mention "making progress while maintaining stability", "timely increasing efforts", "implementing in detail", "boosting consumption", and "governing disorderly competition", and continued to promote the acceleration of the domestic cycle [2] Supply - **International**: The soil conditions in the main cotton-producing areas have weakened slightly. The non-drought rate has decreased to 93% under the influence of drought in the Midwest, but it is still much higher than the same period. The latest good-to-excellent rate of US cotton is 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The supply pressure in the US cotton area has weakened. In India, 9.86 million hectares of new cotton have been planted, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The spot cotton price has stopped rising and fallen, and the CCI has cumulatively auctioned and sold 1.22 million tons of cotton. In Brazil, the latest harvest progress has reached 21.7%, with the harvest progress in the main producing state of Bahia at 40% and that in the state of Mato Grosso at 12.6% [2] - **Domestic**: Xinjiang cotton has entered the flowering and boll-forming stage. The actual sown area of cotton is 45.803 million mu, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. It is estimated that the yield per mu of new cotton in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, and the guaranteed output is expected to be raised to 7.4 million tons. The high-temperature weather in August is expected to gradually improve compared with July, and the probability of weather speculation is low. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The import volume of cotton yarn in June was 110,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons from the previous month. The total import volume of cotton resources was basically the same as that in May, and no quota policy has been introduced [2] Inventory - **Domestic**: The total industrial and commercial inventory is slightly lower than that of the same period last year by about 40,000 tons, and the inventory in Xinjiang is lower than that of the same period by about 200,000 tons. It is estimated that the national commercial inventory by early September will be comparable to the average level of the past five years. Pay attention to the possible slowdown in the recent de-stocking speed. At the finished product end, the replenishment of cotton yarn and grey cloth has slowed down significantly this week, and the negative feedback expectation after the weakening of the downstream replenishment willingness is gradually reflected in the market [2] - **International**: In May 2025, the inventory value of clothing and clothing fabrics of US wholesalers was $28.636 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.73% and a month-on-month increase of 0.49%. The inventory value of retailers in May was $58.056 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.47% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.49%. The overall inventory level of US clothing is still relatively neutral, and the inventory at the retail end needs further de-stocking [2] Demand - **Domestic**: The orders of textile enterprises have dropped to the lowest level in the past five years. The operating rates of weaving mills and spinning mills have accelerated their decline and are lower than those of the same period. The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have been running at a recent low level. The overall price center of clothing fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market has improved, which may indicate that the foreign trade situation is not overly pessimistic. In June 2025, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, affected by the slowdown in the export growth rate of textiles, the export growth rate of clothing and textiles has further slowed down. The US market performed slightly better than last month, and the ASEAN and EU markets were relatively stable. Pay attention to whether the extension of China-US tariffs can be finally confirmed [2] - **International**: The soil moisture in the main producing areas of US cotton has slightly deteriorated but is still suitable for the growth of new cotton. The trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing, and the export demand for US cotton in the second half of the year still needs to be viewed with caution [2] Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet (July) - **Production**: In the 2025/26 season, the global production is expected to increase by 311,000 tons month-on-month to 25.78 million tons. Among them, China's production is expected to increase by 218,000 tons month-on-month to 6.749 million tons, the US production is expected to increase by 131,000 tons month-on-month to 3.048 million tons, and Pakistan's production is expected to decrease by 44,000 tons to 1.089 million tons [3] - **Consumption**: In the 2025/26 season, the global consumption is expected to increase by 78,000 tons month-on-month to 25.718 million tons. Among them, Pakistan's consumption is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 2.373 million tons, and the remaining small countries will share the rest [4] - **Trade**: In the 2025/26 season, the global imports and exports are expected to decline slightly by 20,000 - 30,000 tons month-on-month. Among them, China's imports are expected to decrease by 152,000 tons month-on-month to 1.263 million tons, and Pakistan's imports are expected to increase by 131,000 tons to 1.284 million tons [4] - **Ending Inventory**: In the 2025/26 season, the global ending inventory is expected to increase by 113,000 tons month-on-month to 16.833 million tons. Among them, China's ending inventory is expected to increase by 11,000 tons to 8.07 million tons, and the US ending inventory is expected to increase by 65,000 tons to 1.001 million tons [4] Cotton Futures and Spot - The cotton price rose and then fell within the month, and the basis level remained high [5] Cotton Yarn Futures and Spot - The futures price of cotton yarn rose and then fell within the month, and the basis performance was weaker than that of cotton [12] Supply Details - The actual sown area of US cotton is higher than expected, and the drought in the Midwest has pushed the good-to-excellent rate to decline slightly. As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, down from 57% the previous week and up from 49% the same period last year. The non-drought rate in the main cotton-producing areas of the US decreased by 3% to 93%, which is 45% higher than the same period. The drought situation has slightly increased, but the soil moisture is still at the best level in the past five years, and the abandonment rate has dropped to 14.427% [14][15] - The de-stocking of raw materials has been relatively fast, but the replenishment of gauze has slowed down significantly this week. This week, the national industrial and commercial inventory decreased by 151,900 tons to 3.1626 million tons, lower than the same period by 37,600 tons; the commercial inventory in Xinjiang decreased to 1.7257 million tons within the month, lower than the same period by 204,600 tons; the commercial inventory in the inland decreased to 768,100 tons this week, lower than the same period by 155,100 tons. At the finished product end, the available days of pure cotton yarn inventory increased by 0.04 days to 31.86 days, the terminal grey cloth inventory increased by 0.28 days to 30.74 days, and the inventory of polyester-cotton yarn in the factory increased by 0.8 days to 28.58 days [16][17] - In June, the import of cotton resources in China did not continue to shrink. In June, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a decrease of about 10,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of about 82.1%; from January to June, China imported about 460,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of about 74.3%. According to customs statistics, in June 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of about 10,000 tons, an increase of about 10%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 670,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6%. In the 2024/25 season (from September 2024 to June 2025), the cumulative import of cotton yarn was about 1.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.18% [18][19] - The de-stocking speed of warehouse receipts has accelerated slightly, and the high-sugar warehouse receipts limit the short squeeze. As of July 31, there were 8,940 registered warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou cotton, a decrease of 1,271 within the month, and 348 valid forecasts. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts was 9,288, equivalent to 371,500 tons of cotton. Among the warehouse receipts, the cotton resources from Eastern Xinjiang account for a relatively large proportion this year, and the problem of high sugar content in some warehouse receipts continues to limit their outflow under the current tight inventory expectations [20][21] Demand Details - The operating rates of spinning and weaving mills have accelerated their decline, and the losses of textile enterprises have deepened further. This week, the operating rate of spinning mills decreased by 1.9% to 67.6%, lower than the same period by 2.9%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.7% to 38.2%, lower than the same period by 1.4%. The year-on-year difference in operating rates has gradually widened compared with the same period last year. The orders of textile enterprises decreased by 0.33 days to 6.94 days, lower than the same period by 2.73 days, and the difference has further expanded compared with last week. From the perspective of spinning profits, the spot profit of the mainstream yarn count within the week dropped to -1,938 yuan/ton, and the expected profit per ton of enterprises in Xinjiang dropped to less than 100 yuan [22][23] - The cotton cloth transactions in the Light Textile City have continued to weaken, and the prices of fabrics and accessories in the Keqiao market have shown a differentiated trend within the week. In the Light Textile City, the latest total transaction volume this week increased by 24,000 meters to 4.892 million meters, and the cotton cloth transaction volume decreased by 30,000 meters to 240,000 meters. In the Keqiao market, the price of accessories increased by 2.17 to 116.44 this week, and the fabric price decreased by 0.19 to 110.66 [24][26] - In June, the export of clothing and textiles decreased slightly year-on-year, and the performance of textiles continued to be weak. In terms of monthly values, the export of textile and clothing in June was $27.31 billion, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, the export of textiles was $12.05 billion, a decrease of 1.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.6%, and the export of clothing was $15.27 billion, an increase of 1% and a month-on-month increase of 12.4%. In terms of cumulative values, the cumulative export value of textiles and clothing in China reached $143.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. The cumulative export value of textiles in June reached $70.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The cumulative export of clothing in June reached $73.46 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. Overall, the year-on-year export growth rates from April to June were all lower than that of the national goods trade. The main reason for the slowdown in export growth is that the US "reciprocal tariff" policy has had a greater impact on the textile and clothing industry chain. Although the "rush to export" of some enterprises has promoted the growth of clothing export data in May and June, the slowdown in exports to the US from ASEAN and South Asia has led to the drag of textiles on the overall export of clothing and textiles [28][30] - The export to the US has improved slightly, while the exports to ASEAN and the EU have shown a slowdown trend. In June, China's clothing exports to the US reached $3.189 billion, an increase of $607 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $239 million; China's textile exports to the US reached $4.428 billion, an increase of $973 million from the previous month but lower than the same period by $339 million. China's clothing exports to the EU reached $3.092 billion, an increase of $425 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $4 million; China's textile exports to the EU reached $4.629 billion, an increase of $461 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $124 million. China's clothing exports to ASEAN reached $1.12 billion, an increase of $55 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $252 million; China's textile exports to ASEAN reached $3.788 billion, a decrease of $162 million from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of $361 million [31][36] - In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry weakened, and the demand-related indicators continued to weaken. In June, the PMI of the cotton textile industry decreased by 1.95% to 47.71%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months. In terms of demand, the PMI of new orders increased by 3.15% to 44.68%, and the PMI of operating rates increased by 1.04% to 52.13%. In terms of inventory and production, the PMI of cotton yarn inventory increased by 12.74% to 63.83%, and the cotton inventory increased by 3.29% to 48.94%. The weakening of demand and the inventory accumulation trend at the terminal continued [37][38] CFTC Position Data - The net short positions of non-commercial and fund investors have rebounded slightly [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For manganese silicon, the market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments, with strong cost support, so short - selling should be done cautiously [1][4] - For ferrosilicon, there is significant inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weakening, and prices are under pressure [1][52] Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of manganese silicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month with a maximum increase to 6414 yuan/ton, then quickly falling back. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main manganese silicon contract was 6028 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.92% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 6050 yuan/ton, and the basis (+22) remained nearly flat [8] 2. Supply - In July, production and the operating rate continued to rise, with factories resuming production in both northern and southern production areas. The daily output in Inner Mongolia was 14,300 tons, maintaining a high - level for the same period. In Yunnan, supply increased significantly during the wet season, with the operating rate exceeding 85%. The estimated output in July was about 815,000 tons [3] 3. Demand - In July, the weekly output of hot metal remained above 2.4 million tons, but the output of rebar did not increase significantly and remained at a low level for the same period. The procurement price of manganese - silicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5850 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 14,600 tons. The tender price was in line with market expectations, and the procurement volume was slightly higher than that of the previous year [3] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 205,000 tons, a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 28, the total number of warehouse receipts was 77,600, a decrease of 10,500 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) continued to decline to 390,800 tons, but the inventory level was still at an absolute high [3] 5. Manganese Ore - In June, China's total manganese ore imports were 2.684 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8%, with the reduction mainly from Gabon and Ghana. In July, the shipments and arrivals from the three major countries increased significantly, while the port clearance volume continued to decline. It is expected that the inventory of manganese ore at ports will increase at a faster rate in August [3] 6. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has increased, with the cost in the north above 5800 yuan/ton and in the south above 6100 yuan/ton. Short - term profit has recovered significantly, but it is still in an inverted state compared with the spot price. Coke has started the fifth round of price increases, and electricity prices in some northern and southern production areas have been adjusted [4] 7. Future Outlook - In the short term, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. In the medium term, supply and demand may gradually return to a loose state. The firm price of raw materials provides strong support for manganese silicon. The market in August will mainly be characterized by oscillatory adjustments. The current commodity valuation is still at a historical low, and the supply security of raw materials is still worthy of attention. Short - selling should be done cautiously. The reference range for the main contract is [5666, 6226] [4] Ferrosilicon 1. Market Review - In July, the futures price of ferrosilicon showed a generally strong trend, reaching the daily limit at the end of the month, then falling back after reaching the high. As of July 28, 2025, the closing price of the main ferrosilicon contract was 5840 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 10.82% from the beginning of the month. The spot price in Jiangsu was 5850 yuan/ton, and the basis (+10) remained nearly flat [55] 2. Supply - In July, the weekly supply continued to rise, but the national operating rate was still at a low level for the same period. The daily output in Ningxia was still over 4000 tons, while the supply levels in other production areas were relatively low. The estimated national output in July was 440,000 - 450,000 tons [51] 3. Demand - In the short term, the profits of steel mills still supported the high - level output of hot metal, but the demand for ferrosilicon showed signs of weakening. The procurement price of ferrosilicon alloy by a leading steel mill in July was 5600 yuan/ton, and the procurement volume was 2700 tons. The tender volume increased significantly. Some steel mills have started the August ferrosilicon tender. In terms of non - steel demand, the domestic magnesium market has been strong recently. From January to June, China's cumulative ferrosilicon exports were 200,000 tons, a decrease of 22,500 tons (a decline of 10.11%) compared with the same period last year [51] 4. Inventory - The total enterprise inventory was 65,600 tons, an increase of 3500 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 17,300 tons from the beginning of the month. As of July 31, the total number of warehouse receipts was 22,100, an increase of 12,900 from the beginning of the month. The delivery inventory (including forecasts) increased to 113,300 tons, reaching a high level for the same period [51] 5. Cost and Profit - The production cost in production areas has decreased slightly, and short - term profit has recovered significantly. The production cost in Ningxia is 5270 yuan/ton (the lowest), with a spot profit of over 300 yuan/ton; the production cost in Gansu is 5539 yuan/ton (the highest), with a spot profit of over 60 yuan/ton. The price of semi - coke first decreased and then increased this month, and the price of lump coal has recently risen, driving the semi - coke market to be strong. The electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai have been adjusted [52] 6. Future Outlook - The current fundamentals are weakening marginally, and the cost side still provides support. Factory inventories have accumulated again, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly this month. The overall inventory pressure is large, suppressing the spot price. In the short term, continue to pay attention to the overall sentiment change in the black series and market news disturbances. In the medium term, the fundamentals will gradually return to a loose state, and prices may still be under pressure. The reference range for the main contract is [5466, 5926] [52]

宏观金银月报 国内政策定调，海外关税落地，8月份回归基本面 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 2025年8月1日 王维芒 资格编号：Z0000148 摘要 【市场和海外宏观】本月资本市场受中国反内卷定调及抑制投机需求等情绪影响，工业 品大幅冲高后回落。美国通胀预期较高，其他国家通胀表现分化，就业市场温和，但消费 者信心走高。关税基本落地，整体好于4月份结果 【国内经济表现】7月国内经济数据比较分化，工业数据尚可但是投资增速放缓，房地产 没有止跌制造业PMI回落。信贷需求宽松，社融托底力量来自政府专项债。政策短反内卷和 消费刺激齐头并进，不过月底大会为反内卷降温，后续关注政策连续性。 【金银策略】黄金短期受避险退潮冲击，白银受黄金、基本金属影响较大。长期来看， 央行购金、美元信用弱化及通胀风险仍构成战略配置价值。黄金价格调整，短期关注760附 近支撑，短期白银跌回前期震荡调整区间8700-9000，长线多头趋势上没有破坏，关注止跌 企稳之后再多单介入。 【风险提示】关税进程波折，美联储不降息（投资有风险 入市需谨慎） 2 1 国内资产价格演绎"反内卷" 2 各国通胀分化，指标喜忧参 ...

PVC月报： 社会库存持续累库，反弹偏空 | 能源化工团队 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 郭建锋 | | F03126846 | | | 何 | 慧 | Z0011420 | | | 郭艳鹏 | | Z0021323 | | | 李 | 倩 | F03134406 | 时间：2025/7/31 | 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 基本面持续累库，反弹偏空 【下月展望】 6月底以来社会库存累库拐点显现，且近期累库速度加快，基本面弱势格局难改。展望8月， 根据季节性特征，社会库存通常在二至四季度处于去库周期，但今年属于PVC扩产大年，预计 延续7月累库格局。一方面，今年计划投产250万吨新产能（同比+9%），扩产速度创十年新高， 年内已兑现170万吨，耀望及海湾合计50万吨计划8-9月兑现。此外，8月仅内蒙君正、新中贾 等装置存检修计划，由于前期反内卷刺激，氯碱综合利润已经修复至同期中性偏高位置，企 业超预期检修概率不大，存量及增量装置均承压运行，供给充沛。另一方面，1-6月表观消费 量累计同比-3%，年中政治局会议首次未提楼市，地产销售面 ...