Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Consolidation [1] - LPG: Consolidation [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Fluctuation [1] - PTA/PR: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Buy on pullback [1][26] - Soda ash: Short on rebound [1][28] - Caustic soda: Continue to rebound [1][31] - Methanol: Bearish [1][34] - Urea: Short on rebound [1][3] - Asphalt: Short on rebound [1][3] Core Views of the Report - The production increase pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, while there is support in the short - term peak season; LPG follows the cost - end oil price to consolidate; L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with supply - demand imbalance; PVC is under supply - side pressure; PX is oscillating with supply - demand changing from tight to loose; PTA/PR and ethylene glycol are expected to be bearish due to supply - demand changes; glass has policy expectations but is constrained by reality; soda ash is under high - supply and high - inventory pressure; caustic soda continues to rebound with supply - demand factors; methanol is bearish due to supply and demand feedback; urea has high supply pressure; asphalt has short - term rebound but long - term cost - end pressure [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI down 1.40%, Brent up 0.82%, and SC up 1.72% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in August, but the oil price has strong support below. It is currently in the consumption peak season, and Saudi Arabia raised the official OSP in August. The demand growth rate decreased slightly, and the US inventory data showed mixed changes [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to factors such as the trade war and new energy impact, the supply is expected to be in excess, with the price fluctuating between 60 - 70 dollars/barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, so lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [510 - 530] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 8, the PG main contract closed at 4184 yuan/ton, up 0.12% month - on - month. The spot prices in different regions showed different changes [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the main factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, but there is short - term support. The PDH profit improved slightly, the开工 rate decreased, and the inventory decreased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the valuation of LPG is high. In the short - term, it is oscillating. Lightly short positions and buy call options for protection. PG focuses on [4130 - 4230] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and although the cost support improves, the supply - demand is weak. The device maintenance intensity increases, but new devices are planned to be put into production in the medium - long term, so the expectation is weak [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and sell - hedging can be considered. L focuses on [7200 - 7300] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The closing prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract's position and some prices in the spot market also decreased [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, but the cost support improves due to the rising international oil price. The supply pressure still exists, and new capacity is planned to be added in the third quarter [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound, and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP focuses on [7000 - 7100] [14]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise's start - up change is limited, the inventory pressure increases in the off - season, the cost support weakens, and it is necessary to pay attention to new device production and policy changes [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound. V focuses on [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the PX09 contract decreased [18]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas device loads are high. The demand of the PTA side weakens recently but is expected to improve. The supply - demand changes from tight to loose, and the inventory is still high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the short - term. PX focuses on [6650 - 6750] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the TA09 contract also decreased [20]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices makes the supply abundant. The downstream polyester production reduction and the decline of terminal weaving start - up rate lead to weakening demand. The inventory is in a neutral state, and the processing fee is high with a weakening expectation [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. TA focuses on [4680 - 4750] [22]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in the East China region was flat, and the futures price of the EG09 contract decreased [23]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the arrival volume is expected to increase. The demand side weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to be more relaxed. The low inventory supports the price [24]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. EG focuses on [4240 - 4290] [25]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation decreased, and the futures price increased slightly, with the basis narrowing and the warehouse receipt unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy expects to improve the supply - demand pattern, but the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates at a low level, the inventory decreases, and the fuel price and spot price changes have an impact on the market [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG focuses on [1020 - 1050] [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - alkali spot price increased, the futures price increased slightly, the main basis remained unchanged, and the warehouse receipt and forecast decreased [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The policy hype effect weakens, and the soda ash factory accumulates inventory again. The supply is still high, and the inventory is difficult to reduce. The downstream support is average, and the terminal consumption is weak [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA focuses on [1170 - 1200] [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price increased, the futures price center moved up, the basis strengthened, and the warehouse receipt increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply is under pressure due to high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is a de - stocking expectation in the maintenance season. The demand of the main downstream alumina increases, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support moves down, and the inventory decreases [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH focuses on [2400 - 2450] [33]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in the East China region decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and overseas device loads are high. The arrival volume may be low in early July but is expected to start accumulating inventory later. The demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weak [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA focuses on [2340 - 2380] [36]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The maintenance intensity increases recently, but the daily output is expected to return to a high level. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand is also lower than before, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost has some support [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebound and pay attention to shorting opportunities on rallies. UR focuses on [1740 - 1780] [3]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price rebounds in the short - term, and the asphalt inventory decreases, but the long - term cost - end pressure is large. The supply increases, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short positions. BU focuses on [3550 - 3650] [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel industry is facing a situation where long - term demand is weak, but short - term market sentiment has been boosted by policies. The overall performance of the steel market is a combination of long - term and short - term factors, resulting in a range - bound and volatile operation [1][3][4][5]. - The iron ore market has a neutral supply - demand structure, and the so - called "anti - involution" mainly affects market sentiment in the short term. It is recommended to participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term [1][7][8][9]. - The coke and coking coal markets have relatively stable supply - demand relationships, with some changes in production and inventory. They are expected to show a volatile trend [1][10][12][13][14][16][17]. - The ferroalloy market has a situation where supply and demand are increasing, but there are problems such as high inventory and weakening market sentiment. The price is expected to run within a range [18][19][20]. Summary by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar** - **Variety View**: Recent anti - involution policies on capacity reduction have strengthened market sentiment and improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and steel export demand is still good. However, domestic demand has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state remains unchanged [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the context of basis repair, the market may operate within the range of [3050, 3090] [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil** - **Variety View**: The final anti - dumping duty ruling on China's hot - rolled coil exports by Vietnam has been finalized. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has increased slightly, apparent demand has decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The supply and demand are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have not changed much. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may operate within the range of [3170, 3210] [1]. Iron Ore - **Variety View**: Fundamentally, hot metal production on the demand side has decreased and is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping rush has ended, but arrivals still have an increase. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral. The so - called "anti - involution" has limited impact on the black industry and mainly reflects emotional trading in the short term [1][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the short - term range and arrange short positions in the medium term, with the short - term range being [720, 750] [1][9]. Coke - **Variety View**: The production of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the production of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand relationship has not changed much. The short - term market sentiment has improved, but it faces moving average resistance above [1][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It may return to a volatile trend within the range of [1420, 1455] [1]. Coking Coal - **Variety View**: Domestic coking coal production has decreased slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and the supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot transactions have improved, and the overall market sentiment has improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [1][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to show a volatile trend within the range of [830, 860] [1]. Ferroalloys (including manganese silicon and ferrosilicon) - **Manganese Silicon** - **Variety View**: Last week, the fundamentals of supply and demand both increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although the current hot metal production is running at a high level, the actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [18][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and it will still be under pressure to operate before the fundamentals are significantly improved [20]. - **Ferrosilicon** - **Variety View**: The fundamentals of supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost side currently has weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have复产 plans, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking [18][19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Market sentiment is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still suppress the rebound height. It is expected that the market will maintain a range - bound operation within the range of [5250, 5450] [1][20].

| 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2937 | 2954 | -17 | -0. 58% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2906 | 2916. 29 | -10. 29 | -0. 35% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2840 | 2840 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3337.5 | 3337.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2187.5 | 2202. 5 | -15 | -0. 68% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3775 | 3775 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 | 1333. 33 | 0 | 0. 00% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Steel products will fluctuate within a range due to the interweaving of bullish and bearish factors [3] - Iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and investors should sell short at high prices [7] - Coke supply - demand contradictions are limited, and it will oscillate within a range [10] - Coking coal will return to an oscillating state as coal mines resume production [14] - Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will operate within a range [18] Summary by Variety Steel Products 1. Variety View - For rebar, recent de - capacity and anti - involution policies have boosted market sentiment, with improved expectations. Currently, hot metal production remains high, rebar production continues to rise, and overall steel export demand is still good [1][4] - For hot - rolled coils, the final anti - dumping duty ruling by Vietnam on Chinese hot - rolled coil exports has been announced. Domestic hot - rolled coil production has slightly increased, apparent demand has slightly decreased month - on - month, and inventory has changed little [1][4] 2. Trading Suggestions - Rebar demand in China has entered the off - season, and the long - term weak state has not changed. The market may operate within a range under the background of basis repair, with the range being [3040, 3080] [1][5] - The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are generally balanced, and the fundamentals have changed little. The previous upward movement was mainly driven by improved market sentiment. In the short term, it may enter a range - bound operation, with the range being [3060, 3200] [1][5] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [2] Iron Ore 1. Variety View - From a fundamental perspective, on the demand side, hot metal production has declined, and it is expected to decline slowly in the future. On the supply side, the shipping volume rush has ended, but arrivals are still increasing. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are replenishing inventory as needed. The overall supply - demand structure has weakened month - on - month [8] 2. Trading Suggestions - In the short term, participate in the market within the range [715, 740], and in the medium term, arrange short positions [1][9] 3. Price and Spread Data - Futures prices, spot prices, spreads/price ratios, basis, freight rates, and spot indexes of iron ore are provided, along with their latest values and price changes [6] Coke 1. Variety View - The output of independent coking enterprises has recently declined, but the output of steel mills and coking enterprises remains high. The total inventory has decreased month - on - month, but the absolute level is still high. Hot metal production has increased month - on - month, ensuring the demand for raw materials. The supply - demand situation has changed little. In the short term, market sentiment has improved, but there is resistance from the moving average above, and it may return to an oscillating state [12] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [1400, 1430] [1][13] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coke are provided, including capacity utilization, production, inventory, and profit [11] Coking Coal 1. Variety View - Domestic coking coal production has slightly decreased, but some previously shut - down coal mines have gradually resumed production since July, and supply is expected to increase in the future. The absolute level of upstream inventory is still high, spot trading has improved, and market sentiment has generally improved. Attention should be paid to the resistance of the 60 - day moving average above [16] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market will oscillate, with the range being [820, 850] [1][17] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly data of coking coal are provided, including the start - up rate, production, inventory, and inventory availability days [15] Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon) 1. Variety View - For manganese silicon, last week, both supply and demand in the fundamentals increased, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the bottom support of the ore price on the cost side is strong. Although hot metal production is still at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure as the off - season approaches [19] - For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals show an increase in both supply and demand, and the cost side currently provides weak support for prices. As the coal consumption peak season arrives from July to August, prices are expected to pick up due to cost factors. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories still have plans to resume production, and the off - season of downstream consumption has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory inventory reduction [19] 2. Trading Suggestions - The market sentiment of manganese silicon is gradually cooling down, and it will continue to be under pressure before the fundamentals are significantly improved, with the range being [5550 - 5750] [1][20] - The market sentiment of ferrosilicon is gradually cooling down, and the real - world pressure will still limit the height of the rebound. It is expected that the market will operate within a range, with the range being [5270 - 5460] [1][20] 3. Price and Data - Futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, and weekly data of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are provided, including enterprise start - up rates, production, and inventory [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual varieties, it includes ratings such as "盘整" (Consolidation), "回调" (Correction), "震荡" (Sideways), "偏空" (Bearish), and "反弹" (Rebound) [1][2]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: There is a balance between the increasing production pressure and the support from Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP during the peak season, leading to a price consolidation. In the long - term, due to factors like the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and the price is likely to be bearish on rebounds [3][4][5]. - **LPG**: As the downward pressure on oil prices increases, LPG is under pressure. In the long - term, considering the supply - demand relationship of upstream crude oil, the central price is expected to continue to decline, and the current valuation of LPG is relatively high. In the short - term, the upward resistance is large, and the price is weak [6][7][8]. - **L (Polyethylene)**: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, showing an interval - based consolidation. In the short - term, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. In the long - term, with the planned new capacity coming into operation, the outlook is weak [9][10]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The cost support improves, and the price moves in an interval. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the overall supply - demand imbalance persists. In the long - term, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply [11][12]. - **PVC**: With the continuous decline in the price of calcium carbide, the cost support weakens. The supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [14][15]. - **PX**: The supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness, and the cost support weakens. The price is expected to be bearish on rebounds [16][17]. - **PTA/PR**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance currently but is expected to loosen. There are opportunities to short at high prices [18][19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Although the current inventory is low, the supply - demand is expected to become looser. There are opportunities to short at high prices [21][22][23]. - **Glass**: There is a conflict between policy expectations and real - world constraints. In the short - term, the price may move slightly upward, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure from the moving average [24][25]. - **Soda Ash**: The continuous inventory accumulation in soda ash plants puts pressure on the market sentiment. The price is expected to move in a wide - range sideways pattern [26][27][28]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expansion of liquid chlorine subsidies drives the price to rebound. Although the overall supply - demand fundamentals are weak, there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: The upstream profit is still good, but there is a negative feedback on demand. The port may start a cycle of inventory accumulation later. The price is expected to be weak and sideways [32][33][34]. - **Urea**: Although the recent maintenance intensity has increased, the supply pressure remains large. The demand is weak, but the export growth is fast. There are opportunities to short on rebounds [2]. - **Asphalt**: Due to the pressure on the cost - end oil price, the short - term price is bearish [2]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices opened low and closed high. WTI decreased by 0.76%, Brent increased by 1.87%, and SC decreased by 1.01% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: OPEC+ decided to accelerate production in August. However, the oil price has strong support below due to the peak consumption season and Saudi Arabia's increase in the OSP. The demand growth rate has slightly decreased, and the US inventory has changed [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, supply pressure is rising, and it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC should be monitored in the range of [500 - 520] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 7, the PG main contract closed at 4179 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% compared to the previous day. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [6]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, putting downward pressure on oil prices and LPG. The PDH device profit decreases, and the supply and demand sides have different changes [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of LPG is expected to decline. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position. PG should be monitored in the range of [4150 - 4250] [8]. L (Polyethylene) - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, the cost support from crude oil weakens, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and new capacity is planned to be put into operation in the long - term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider selling hedging opportunities. L should be monitored in the range of [7200 - 7300] [10]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Market Review**: The prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [12]. - **Basic Logic**: The demand is weak, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Although there are some positive factors on the supply side, the planned new capacity will put pressure on the supply in the long - term [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds and consider the 9 - 1 positive spread. PP should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7100] [12]. PVC - **Basic Logic**: The price of calcium carbide continues to decline, the cost support weakens, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory accumulates, and attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of new plants and the change of anti - dumping tax policies [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. V should be monitored in the range of [4800 - 5000] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures prices of different contracts decreased. The basis and spreads changed [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and international PX devices are operating at a relatively high load. The demand from the PTA side has weakened recently, and the supply - demand relationship shifts from tight balance to looseness. The inventory is still relatively high [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. PX should be monitored in the range of [6620 - 6730] [17]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, and the futures price of the main contract also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [18]. - **Basic Logic**: The restart of maintenance devices increases the supply. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens. The inventory is decreasing, but the processing fee is high, and the basis is expected to weaken [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. TA should be monitored in the range of [4660 - 4750] [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 5, the spot price in East China remained unchanged, and the futures price of the main contract decreased. The basis and spreads changed [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Many domestic and international devices are under maintenance or temporary shutdown, and the recent arrival volume is low, but it is expected to increase. The demand from the polyester and terminal weaving industries weakens, and the supply - demand is expected to become looser [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are opportunities to short at high prices. EG should be monitored in the range of [4240 - 4310] [23]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot market quotation increased, the futures contracts showed differentiation, the basis widened, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Although there are policy expectations for capacity reduction and technological improvement, the short - term market is restricted by reality. The production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the output increases slightly, and the inventory decreases but is still higher than last year [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG should be monitored in the range of [1010 - 1040] [25]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda decreased, the futures market showed differentiation, the main contract basis narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts increased, and the effective forecast decreased [27]. - **Basic Logic**: Although the policy of capacity reduction boosts the market sentiment, the inventory in soda ash plants continues to accumulate, and the supply is still at a high level. The downstream support is okay, but the terminal consumption is weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA should be monitored in the range of [1160 - 1190] [28]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda is stable, the futures market rebounds, the basis strengthens, and the number of warehouse receipts decreases [30]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply side has high - load production and new capacity expectations, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the maintenance season. The demand from the alumina industry recovers, but non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the inventory decreases [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SH should be monitored in the range of [2390 - 2450] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 4, the spot price in East China decreased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis and spreads changed, and the trans - shipment profit increased [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream profit is good, and the domestic and international device operation loads are high. The import profit increases, and the port may start to accumulate inventory later. The demand from the MTO side weakens, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season. The social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: MA should be monitored in the range of [2350 - 2400] [34]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The recent maintenance intensity increases, but the supply pressure remains large. The industrial and agricultural demands are weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. The cost support exists [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds. UR should be monitored in the range of [1725 - 1755] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price is under pressure due to OPEC+'s production expansion. The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3550 - 3650] [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range due to Trump's tariff threats, fiscal expansion in many countries, long - term monetary easing, and global order reshaping. Silver will have a strong - level range trading as government fiscal deficit stimulus supports demand. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with a long - term positive outlook. Zinc is likely to trade in a range, with opportunities to short on rallies. Lead, tin, aluminum, and nickel are under pressure. Industrial silicon has a strong expectation but a weak reality, trading in a high - level range. Lithium carbonate is expected to face resistance in its rebound and trade in a range [1]. - Gold has support from Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [2][3]. - Copper is in a high - level range. Although the price is high and suppresses demand, the long - term outlook is positive due to the tight global copper mine supply and its strategic importance [7][8]. - Zinc is under pressure. With the supply of zinc concentrate increasing and demand being weak during the off - season, short - term short positions can be held, and opportunities to short on rallies can be grasped in the long term [9][10]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure as the industry enters the off - season, with costs rising and inventory increasing. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [11][12]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure. With supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation, it is advisable to short on rebounds [13][14]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range. Although demand shows signs of increase, the supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and the total inventory is still rising [15][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Trump's tariff uncertainties and China's central bank's continuous gold purchases provide support for gold [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Trump's new tariff plan may increase inflation risks in the US and trigger asset selling. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves for 8 consecutive months. The long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged due to tariff uncertainties, long - term global order reshaping, and the trend of fiscal and monetary double - easing [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has strong support around 760. Long - term investors can consider taking long positions. Silver is in a range - bound trading, with strong support at 8700 [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, trading in a high - level range [7]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of copper concentrate remains tight. The production of electrolytic copper has increased, but high prices have suppressed demand. The global visible copper inventory is at a historical low, and the terminal consumption is in the off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After a full correction, consider taking long positions on dips. In the long term, the outlook for copper is positive. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [78000, 80000], and for London copper is [9700, 9900] dollars per ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Zinc prices fell under pressure, testing the support at the integer level [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and domestic inventory has slightly increased. The downstream galvanizing enterprises' operating rate is affected by weak steel demand and is lower than in previous years [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions in the short term. In the long term, look for opportunities to short on rallies. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [21800, 22400], and for London zinc is [2650, 2750] dollars per ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded but faced resistance, and alumina prices rebounded and then fell [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have increased slightly, inventory has turned to accumulation, and demand has entered the off - season. For alumina, the import of bauxite is high, and the production capacity has recovered. The short - term fundamentals are relatively loose [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20800]. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [12]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices rebounded and then fell, and stainless steel prices rebounded but faced resistance [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For nickel, the cost of overseas nickel mines provides support, but inventory has accumulated again, and demand is in the off - season. For stainless steel, production cuts have weakened, and inventory pressure may reappear [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream production cut changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120000 - 125000] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 slightly reduced positions and followed the double - silicon trend [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is not resolved, and total inventory is at a new high. Although demand shows signs of increase, it is difficult to verify the authenticity. The supply side has both maintenance and复产, and the output increase is in line with expectations [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is expected to trade in a high - level range, paying attention to the 65,000 resistance. The focus range is [63000 - 64000] [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has strengthened, and the short - term trend is bullish. The iron ore fundamentals have weakened, suggesting short - term range trading and medium - term short positions. Coke and coking coal are expected to trade in a range. Ferroalloys' market sentiment is cooling, and prices will move within a range [3][7][10][14][18] Summaries by Variety Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Rebar**: De - capacity and anti - involution drive the black series up, with strengthened market sentiment. The fundamentals change little, with high steel mill profitability, high hot metal production, rising rebar output, stable apparent demand, good overall steel export demand, and limited supply - demand contradictions. With basis repair and improved expectations, the short - term trend is bullish, with a price range of [3060, 3100] [1][4][5] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Output rises slightly, apparent demand drops slightly month - on - month, and inventory changes little. Supply - demand is generally balanced, export demand remains, and contradictions are limited. The upward movement is mainly driven by improved sentiment, and the short - term performance may be bullish, with a price range of [3190, 3230] [1] Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot metal production, which is expected to decline slowly later. The supply side sees the end of shipping volume surges but an increase in arrivals. Ports are accumulating inventory, and steel mills are making rigid - demand restocking. The overall supply - demand structure weakens month - on - month. Short - term range trading is recommended, and medium - term short positions should be laid out, with a price range of [720, 750] [1][8][9] Coke - Independent coking enterprise output has declined recently, but steel mill and coking enterprise output remains high. Total inventory drops month - on - month, but the absolute level is high. Hot metal production rises month - on - month, ensuring raw material demand. Supply - demand changes little. Short - term market sentiment improves, but there is moving - average resistance above, and it may return to a range - bound pattern, with a price range of [1420, 1455] [1][12][13] Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal output drops slightly, but some previously shut - down coal mines resume production in July, and later supply tends to increase. The upstream inventory absolute level is still high, spot trading improves, market sentiment generally improves, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the 60 - day moving average, with a price range of [830, 860] [1][16][17] Ferroalloys (Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon) - **Silicomanganese**: Last week, the fundamentals saw both supply and demand increase, but the overall inventory pressure is still obvious, and the cost - side ore price has strong bottom support. Although hot metal production is running at a high level, actual demand may decline under pressure due to the arrival of the off - season. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and it will be under pressure before the fundamentals improve significantly, with a price range of [5550 - 5750] [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals see both supply and demand increase, and the cost side provides weak support for prices. As July - August is the peak coal consumption season, prices are expected to recover driven by costs. However, the current factory inventory level is still relatively high, some factories have plans to resume production later, and the downstream consumption off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of factory de - stocking. Market sentiment is gradually cooling, and real - world pressure will suppress the rebound height, with a price range of [5270 - 5460] [1][19][20]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | OPEC+8 月份继续加速增产，油价偏弱。7 月 6 日，沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉 | | 原油 | 偏空 | 克等 8 个 OPEC+国家计划于 8 月份增产 54.8 万桶/日；从供需基本面看， | | | | OPEC+从 4 月份开始正式增产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压 | | | | 力较大。策略：轻仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【480-500】 | | | | 成本端油价下行压力较大，液化气承压。OPEC+加速增产，成本端油价承 | | LPG | 偏空 | 压；下游化工需求有所下降，PDH 开工回落；库存端利好，厂内和港口库 | | | | 存均下降。策略：走势偏弱，可轻仓布局空单。PG【4100-4200】 | | | | 现货涨价，仓单增加，华北基差为-42（环比+22）。近期装置检修加强， | | L | | 新装置暂未释放，供给压力边际缓解，预计本周产量降至 60.5 万吨。需求 | | | 空头盘整 | 淡季，下游刚需拿货为主，关注后续库存去化力度。7-8 月仍有山东新时 | ...

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 大限将至贸易谈判仍有较多问题存在。另外市场关于美国财政法案讨论较多， | | 黄金 | 高位震荡 | 但是已经落地，财政扩张既成事实，中长期货币宽松、不确定性仍然较多，长 | | | | 期全球秩序尚在重塑，黄金战略配置。【765-790】 | | | | 美国财政大扩张，部分国家数据积极，白银需求有支撑。白银盘面 8700 附近支 | | 白银 | 强势震荡 | 撑较强，品种特性弹性较大，受基本金属和黄金价格情绪影响较大，高位区间 | | | | 思路操作，做好仓位控制。【8800-9075】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面对铜支撑有力，铜测试下方缺口上沿支撑， | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 建议前期铜多单继续持有，部分可逢高止盈兑现，中长期我们对铜依旧看好。沪铜 | | | | 关注区间【78500，80500】 | | | | 特朗普关税施压，宏观情绪回落，基本面锌精矿加工费修复，国内锌库存小幅 | | 锌 | 震荡 | 累库，国内消费淡季，锌承压回落，长期看，锌供 ...

1 豆粕：缺乏明确指引 短线震荡整理 | 期货价格(主力日收盘) | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | | 涨跌幅周趋势图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 元/吨 | 2954 | 2958 | -4 | -0. 14% | | | 现货价格 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 全国均价 | 元/吨 | 2916. 29 | 2926. 86 | -10. 57 | -0. 36% | | | 张家港 | 元/吨 | 2840 | 2840 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 杂粕现货均价 | 单位 | 最新 | 前一日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 周趋势图 | | 花生粕 | 元/吨 | 3337. 5 | 3337.5 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 葵花粕 | 元/吨 | 2202. 5 | 2201. 25 | 1.25 | 0. 06% | | | 芝麻粕 | 元/吨 | 3775 | 3775 | 0 | 0. 00% | | | 棕榈粕 | 元/吨 | 1333. 33 ...