Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The PVC market is in a situation of strong expectations versus weak reality, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, but the market sentiment has improved compared to the first half of the year. The low point of 4746 in the year still has strong support, and the profit - loss ratio of short - selling decreases significantly when the price falls below 5000 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC Market Review - This week, the V2601 contract oscillated between 4951 and 5119 yuan/ton, with a 4 - week consecutive decline in the weekly line and an enlarged amplitude compared to last week. The contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, down 78 points or 1.5% from last week's close [3][8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 5059 yuan/ton (down 78 week - on - week), and the main contract's open interest was 980,000 lots, which was higher than the same period in previous years [11]. - The basis weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased rapidly. As of Friday, the PVC Changzhou basis was - 279 yuan/ton, and the number of PVC warehouse receipts was 82,000 lots (up 0.2 week - on - week). The delivery volume in June was 35,000 tons, at a neutral level year - on - year [13]. - The 9 - 1 month spread weakened. As of Friday, the V9 - 1 spread was - 141 yuan/ton (up 2 week - on - week), and the V3 - 5 spread was - 222 yuan/ton (up 27 week - on - week) [16]. - This week, the price of calcium carbide - based PVC declined more, and the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC widened [19]. Supply - This week, PVC production was 460,000 tons (down 16,000 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 78%. From week 1 to 34, the cumulative production increased by 4.4% year - on - year, and the supply was still under pressure. Next week, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach 78.33%, and the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Demand - **Real Estate**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of new construction, construction in progress, completion, and sales areas of real estate were - 19.4%, - 9.2%, - 16.5%, and - 4% respectively. The decline in new construction area narrowed, while the declines in construction, completion, and sales areas widened. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of these four indicators were - 15.2%, - 16.4%, - 29.5%, and - 8.4% respectively. The sales area has seen a continuous 4 - month decline. In July, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 5.85% year - on - year. This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 1.93 million square meters [25][28]. - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate was 43%. The operating rates of pipes and profiles improved for two consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of films declined for three consecutive weeks [31]. - **Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PVC export volume was 2.29 million tons (an increase of 830,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 57%. In July, the domestic PVC export volume was 330,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113%. However, on August 14, India announced new anti - dumping duties, which are expected to reduce China's export advantage and the export growth rate to India in the second half of the year. From January to July, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%), and in July, the export volume was 350,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%) [34][38]. Inventory - As of Thursday, the PVC enterprise inventory was 310,000 tons (down 21,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of destocking, a total of 100,000 tons. The small - sample social inventory was 510,000 tons (up 15,000 week - on - week), with 10 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 150,000 tons. The large - sample social inventory was 680,000 tons (up 41,000 week - on - week), with 9 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation, a total of 280,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was - 223 yuan/ton (up 8 week - on - week) [44]. Strategy - **Single - side**: The absolute price is undervalued. Close short positions and try to go long on dips in the short - term. Focus on the V2601 contract in the range of [4950, 5200]. - **Hedging**: The futures market is in a contango structure. Industrial customers can sell on rallies for hedging [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global central bank meetings are approaching, and the Fed has been issuing hawkish signals. Mining supply disruptions and demand resilience support copper prices, but high supply elasticity and inventory accumulation restrict the upside space. In the short term, there is no obvious single - sided driver for copper, and it awaits more macro - level guidance [6]. - Overall, under the Fed's hawkish expectations, the US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. Global copper inventory accumulation restricts the upward space for copper. However, the expectation of stockpiling for the peak season and tight copper ore supply provide support for the downside of copper. Copper is in a state of oscillatory consolidation, with a stalemate between bulls and bears. Technically, the triangular consolidation of copper is nearing its end, and it is about to break out and move in a certain direction [6][75]. - In the short term, new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clarified and then try to go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and an important alternative asset allocation for precious metals, with tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is bullish [6][75]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macroeconomic - **Global Central Bank and US Economy**: Before Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, some Fed officials showed a negative attitude towards a rate cut next month. The US 8 - month Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022. The US dollar index rose 0.8% compared to last Friday, reaching 98.64. As of August 22, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September dropped significantly to 75% from the previous 95%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged was 25%. The possibility of an aggressive 50 - basis - point rate cut in September disappeared [11]. - **China's Economic Situation**: In August, the LPR remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively. The Fed's delay in rate cuts restricts China's monetary policy space. The Sino - US interest rate spread is - 2.54%, slightly narrowing compared to last week. In the short - term domestic policy vacuum period, before the September 3 military parade, the A - share market is booming, siphoning market funds, and the anti - involution sentiment in the commodity market has subsided [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: Supply disruptions have occurred. Codelco expects a 33,000 - metric - ton reduction in refined copper production in 2025 due to an accident at the El Teniente copper mine. Zambia's copper production in the second quarter decreased, putting its goal of increasing production to 1 million tons this year at risk. China's copper concentrate imports in July were 2.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.25%. As of August 22, the SMM imported copper concentrate index (weekly) dropped to - 41.15 dollars per ton, and the copper concentrate TC decreased to - 41.3 dollars per ton [36]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: The scrap copper market is in short supply, and the price difference between refined and scrap copper has narrowed. As of August 22, the price difference was 1,084 yuan per ton. From January to June, the domestic supply of scrap copper increased by 611,300 tons. In July, the import of copper scrap and waste was 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% [40]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. It is expected that the domestic electrolytic copper production in August will be 1.1683 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51%. The ICSG reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons [45]. 3.2.2 Demand - **Traditional Downstream Demand**: From July to August, affected by high temperatures and floods, it was the traditional off - season for terminal consumption. The operating rates of downstream copper processing enterprises declined. In July, the operating rate of copper product enterprises was 61.58%, and the output of copper products was 2.1694 million tons [51]. - **Terminal Demand in Power and New Energy Vehicles**: From January to June, power grid project investment increased by 14.6% year - on - year, and new photovoltaic installations increased by 107.07% year - on - year. In July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 26.3% and 27.4% [55]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Market Situation**: The short - term core contradiction in copper supply and demand is the strong expectation of inventory reduction during the off - peak to peak season transition versus the weak reality of inventory accumulation due to the short - term supply glut. In the medium term, it is the tight copper concentrate supply and low processing fees versus the high elasticity of smelting supply. In the long term, it is the concern about the weak global economy due to the escalation of Sino - US confrontation versus the explosion of green copper demand in power and new energy [75]. - **Price Trend and Strategy**: Copper is oscillating and consolidating, and a breakthrough is imminent. Short - term new entrants are advised to wait for the macro - situation to be clear and then go long on dips around 77,500 - 78,000. Enterprises should arrange sell - hedging at high prices. In the long term, copper is bullish [6][75].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Overall - Short - term adjustment is expected for soybean meal and rapeseed meal, with opportunities for short - term long positions after adjustment [1]. - Short - term bullish trends are predicted for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, with a focus on buying on dips [1]. - Cautious bullishness is advised for cotton, red dates, and live pigs, with specific trading strategies proposed according to different market conditions [1]. By Variety - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with short - term long opportunities after adjustment due to ProFarmer's lower - than - expected US soybean yield forecast and consideration of Sino - US trade issues [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment, with opportunities for short - term long positions after stabilization. High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast are influencing factors [1][6]. - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish, with a focus on buying on dips. Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory are positive factors [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term bullish, awaiting the implementation of the US biodiesel policy. Domestic spot market has good pre - holiday stocking [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term bullish, with prices mainly following other competing oils due to limited new developments in anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed and Australian rapeseed purchases [1]. - **Cotton**: Cautious bullish, with opportunities to buy on dips. Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Cautious bullish, with a strategy of buying on dips. Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: Cautious bullish, with a suggestion to avoid short - selling blindly in the short term. High - level medium - and long - term inventory, shrinking incremental space, and potential capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts [1][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day. National average spot price is 3084.29 yuan/ton, down 12.85 yuan or 0.41% [2]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, down 1.20 million tons from last week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory is 680.4 million tons, down 30.16 million tons or 4.24% from last week; bean meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, up 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [3]. - **Market Analysis**: ProFarmer's US soybean yield forecast is lower than the USDA's August forecast, which is bullish. Considering Sino - US trade, short - term long opportunities can be considered after adjustment [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day. National average spot price is 2608.95 yuan/ton, down 18.94 yuan or 0.72% [5]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, down 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons from last week; unexecuted contracts are 5.5 million tons, down 1.4 million tons from last week [5]. - **Market Analysis**: High inventory, high warehouse receipts, improved Sino - Australian trade, and increased Canadian rapeseed yield forecast have cooled market speculation. Short - term long opportunities can be considered after stabilization, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][6]. Palm Oil - **Price Data**: Futures price (main contract) is 9592 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan or 0.97% from the previous day. National average price is 9553 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or 0.31% [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 15, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, up 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [9]. - **Export Data**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 17.5% (AmSpec) and 37.19% (SGS) compared to the same period last month [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Favorable biodiesel policies in Indonesia and Malaysia, good export data, and reduced inventory support a short - term bullish view. Buying on dips is recommended, while paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated Malaysian palm oil inventory this month [1][9]. Cotton - **Price Data**: Zhengzhou cotton main contract CF2509 is 14030 yuan/ton, and domestic spot price is 15246 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [10][11]. - **Inventory Data**: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is 71.26 million tons, lower than the same period by 29.7 million tons [12]. - **Demand Data**: Spinning mill operating rate is 65.8%, up 0.3%; weaving mill operating rate is 37%, up 0.2%; spinning mill orders are 11.42 days, up 3.06 days [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Although US cotton soil moisture has improved and demand is insufficient, low international cotton price valuation, tight supply before new cotton listing, and potential local procurement support the market. However, the upside space is limited due to high - yield expectations. Buying on dips is recommended, and the long - short rhythm can be adjusted according to demand in September [1][13]. Red Dates - **Price Data**: Red dates main contract CJ2601 is 11235 yuan/ton, down 2.47% [14][15]. - **Inventory Data**: 36 sample enterprises' inventory is 9519 tons, down 167 tons from the previous period [14]. - **Market Analysis**: Expected production reduction in 2025/26, long speculation period around the opening price before November, and accelerated inventory reduction are positive factors, but there is pressure from carry - over inventory. Buying on dips is recommended, and the market is expected to be strong first and then weak [1][16]. Live Pigs - **Price Data**: Live pigs main contract Lh2511 is 13840 yuan/ton, up 0.51%. Domestic live pig spot price is stable at 13820 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Inventory and Supply Data**: National sample enterprises' live pig inventory is 3763.32 million tons, up 1.17% month - on - month; slaughter volume is 1091.68 million tons, down 3.01% month - on - month; fertile sows inventory is 4043 million tons, up 0.02% [17]. - **Market Analysis**: Smooth slaughter rhythm in the breeding end, pressure from previous second - fattening and accelerated August slaughter on the spot market. Medium - and long - term inventory remains high, but incremental space is shrinking. Capacity reduction of leading enterprises may support far - month contracts. Short - term short - selling is not recommended under the boost of purchase and storage sentiment, and long positions in far - month contracts or reverse arbitrage around strong contracts can be considered [1][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold and silver are recommended for rebound buying. In the long - term, they are expected to rise, benefiting from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Copper is recommended to hold long positions, with long - term optimism due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. Zinc is expected to have limited upside space in the short - term, and a rebound short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term. Aluminum, nickel, and industrial silicon are expected to have short - term rebounds. Polysilicon and lithium carbonate are cautiously bullish [1]. - In the short - term, gold has support around 770 and attention should be paid to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100 and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise. Copper short - term long positions should be held, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Zinc short - term attention should be paid to filling the upper gap, and long - term rebound short - selling is recommended. Aluminum short - term attention should be paid to taking profits and observing. Nickel and stainless steel short - term should take profits on dips. Lithium carbonate can be bought at low levels after stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average [1][4][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Powell's speech exceeded expectations, with a significant increase in liquidity expectations, leading to a notable rise in the gold and silver markets [2]. - **Basic Logic**: Powell's statement exceeded expectations, paving the way for a possible September interest rate cut; Germany's economic concerns deepened with a significant contraction in Q2 GDP; Trump is conducting a major tariff investigation on furniture products, and Canada has adjusted some tariffs. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - term bull market [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has support around 770, pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 794; silver has support at 9100, pay attention to the pressure at the previous high of 9526. In the long - term, gold and silver will continue to rise [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillated strongly and returned to the 79,000 level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, and refined copper production may decrease marginally in the future. Currently in the consumption off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Global copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, continue to hold long copper positions, and new positions can wait for dips to enter. Long - term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper focuses on the range of [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to filling the upper gap [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, zinc concentrate supply is abundant, and smelter production enthusiasm is high. On the demand side, affected by tariffs and the off - season, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc rebounded due to Powell's dovish remarks, but the upside space may be limited. Short - term, previous short positions can take profits and wait and see. Long - term, maintain the view of rebound short - selling. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range of [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and LME zinc focuses on [2750, 2850] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rebounded and recovered, and alumina showed a slight stabilizing trend [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas interest rate cut expectations are obvious, with a decline in costs and a mixed inventory situation. The demand side shows a mild recovery. For alumina, the supply is expected to remain loose in the short - term, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Shanghai aluminum should focus on taking short - term profits and observing, and pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [20,000 - 21,000] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices stabilized, and stainless steel rebounded from a low level [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment is positive. Nickel ore prices are weak, and smelters are at a loss. Nickel production increased in July, and inventory accumulated again. Stainless steel production cuts weakened, and the off - season pressure remains [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Nickel and stainless steel should take short - term profits on dips, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120,000 - 123,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opened low and moved low, with a decline of more than 4% [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: Supply production increased slightly, and demand is approaching the peak season. Downstream factories are stocking up, and the total inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, indicating good demand. After stabilizing near the 20 - day moving average, it can be bought at low levels [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average in the range of [78,000 - 81,000] yuan/ton [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Crude Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on dips [1] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1] - **PVC**: Short - term bullish [1] - **PX**: Bullish [1] - **PTA**: Bullish [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bullish [2] - **Methanol**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish [2] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish [3] - **Glass**: Cautiously bullish [3] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7] - **LPG**: Cost - end oil price stabilizes and rebounds, with valuation repaired. Long positions should be taken profit due to potential cost - end weakness [1][13] - **L**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced. Consider going long on dips [1][17] - **PP**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains. Consider going long on short - term pullbacks [1][22] - **PVC**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices. Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment [1][27] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized. Short - term bullish [1][31] - **PTA**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery. Consider going long on dips [2][35] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Bullish due to low inventory and cost support [2][39] - **Methanol**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize. Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips [2][42] - **Urea**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good. 01 long positions can be held, and call options can be sold [2][46] - **Asphalt**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases. Consider shorting with a light position [3] - **Glass**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient. Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] - **Soda Ash**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid. Short - term bullish [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: On August 22, WTI rose 0.22%, Brent fell 0.66%, and SC rose 0.88% [6] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical factors boost short - term prices, but long - term supply surplus pressure increases. Focus on the outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [7] - **Fundamentals**: Libya plans to increase production, India's imports decline, and US commercial crude inventories decrease [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [9] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PG main contract closed at 4392 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [11] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is relatively reasonable. Follow the oil price trend [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions due to potential cost - end weakness, and focus on the range of [4400 - 4500] for PG [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7380 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [16] - **Basic Logic**: Fundamentals are improving with strong supply and demand, and social inventory is significantly reduced [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips, and focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7038 yuan/ton, down 0.1% [20] - **Basic Logic**: Driven by the optimistic sentiment in the chemical sector, but supply pressure remains [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on short - term pullbacks, and focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [22] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5019 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [25] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves due to rising calcium carbide prices, but supply and inventory pressure exist [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation and improved market sentiment, and focus on the range of [5000 - 5100] for V [27] PX - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policy benefits are expected to be realized [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6940 - 7050] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 22, the PTA spot price in East China was 4865 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, but demand shows signs of recovery [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, sell put options, and consider buying TA on dips. Focus on the range of [4850 - 4930] for TA01 [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [38] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic supply slightly increases, overseas supply is stable, and demand recovers. Low inventory and cost support [39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, consider buying on dips and the 9 - 1 calendar spread. Focus on the range of [4470 - 4550] for EG01 [40] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 22, the methanol spot price in East China was 2320 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton [41] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak but expected to stabilize [42] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on the 01 contract on dips, and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [43] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 22, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [45] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, demand is weak, but exports are good [46] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1730 - 1760] for UR01 [47] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price is under pressure, supply increases, and demand decreases [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position [3] Glass - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, but supply pressure exists, and demand support is insufficient [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish due to low valuation [3] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Not provided in the given text - **Basic Logic**: Market sentiment improves, supply remains high, and demand is mostly rigid [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term bullish [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (including rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon) are rated as "Cautiously Bullish" [1] 2. Report's Core View - The steel market has been declining but may rebound in the short term due to factors like policy disturbances and Fed's loose signals. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong in the short term because of the increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Coke and coking coal may see short - term rebounds due to safety inspection expectations after the Fujian coal mine accident. Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon may also have short - term rebounds influenced by macro - sentiment but should be sold at high prices in the medium term [1][3][7][11][15][19] 3. Summary by Variety Rebar - **View**: Currently, blast furnace profits are good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high pig iron production. However, demand is weak, and construction steel sales are at a low level. The limit on blast furnaces in Tangshan during the military parade was lower than expected, and supply - demand is expected to be loose [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, and the market has declined. But there may be policy disturbances later, and it may rebound in the short term after the Fed's loose signals [1][5] Hot - Rolled Coil - **View**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of blast furnace limits in Tangshan during the military parade is limited, and supply - demand has a loose trend [1][4] - **Operation Suggestion**: The futures are weak, but after continuous declines, the short - term downside space may be limited, and there may be a short - term rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - **View**: Pig iron production has increased again. Environmental protection limits are less than expected, steel mills have finished restocking, and port inventories are accumulating. Overseas ore arrivals and shipments have both increased, with neutral fundamentals. The increasing likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September is bullish for commodity prices in the short term [1][7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][8] Coke - **View**: Coke spot has started the seventh round of price hikes but may face game - playing with steel mills later. Coke enterprises' profits have improved and turned positive. Supply - demand is relatively balanced, and production and inventory are stable. The "anti - involution" atmosphere has faded, but the Fujian coal mine accident brings safety inspection expectations, supporting coking coal and leading to a short - term rebound [1][11] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][12] Coking Coal - **View**: Domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month and lower than last year. Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased significantly recently. Mine inventories have stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed. Pig iron production is still high, and raw material demand is stable. The market sentiment has faded, and futures have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, with downward repair space in the medium term. However, it may rebound in the short term due to safety inspection expectations [1][15] - **Operation Suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][16] Ferromanganese - **View**: The fundamentals are becoming looser, but there is still short - term demand resilience under a new round of concentrated demand release. The total inventory in the statement continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The combined shipments of the three major countries of manganese ore this period are 104.5 tons, a significant increase from the previous period, mainly from South Africa and Australia. Arrivals decreased slightly month - on - month, and port inventory is 446.6 tons, basically the same as last week [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: Manganese ore prices have not significantly declined, and the cost side has some support. It may rebound in the short term affected by macro - sentiment, but the medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20] Ferrosilicon - **View**: This week, production continued to increase while demand declined, and the fundamentals are becoming looser. Enterprise inventories continue to decline month - on - month but are still at a high absolute level, and the overall supply pressure remains [1][19] - **Operation Suggestion**: It is advisable to wait and see. The medium - term strategy of selling at high prices remains unchanged [1][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Beans Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Short - term adjustment [1] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term bullish [1] - **Cotton**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Red Dates**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Live Pigs**: Cautiously bullish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Beans Meal**: With neutral climate expectations and smooth US soybean planting weather, China's soybean and beans meal are in the inventory accumulation stage. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report adjusted the final soybean production and ending stocks downward. Beans meal is under pressure for adjustment, and short - long opportunities after adjustment can be considered in the next one to two weeks [1][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Global rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of reduced yield in Canada. High inventory and high warehouse receipts, along with improved China - Australia trade, have cooled market speculation. After adjustment, short - long opportunities after stabilization can be considered, but chasing long positions should be cautious [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Indonesia and Malaysia's biodiesel policies are favorable for palm oil consumption expectations, and China and India have purchasing needs. The fundamental outlook is bullish, and the idea of buying on dips is recommended [1][8]. - **Cotton**: The short - term soil moisture of US cotton has improved, which is negative for the market, but the international cotton price valuation is low. Zheng cotton's short - term focus is on supply before new cotton listing. Buying on dips can be considered [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is estimated to be between 50 - 58 million tons, with a certain reduction. Before November, the market speculation around the opening price is long, and short - long opportunities can be considered [1][15]. - **Live Pigs**: The current supply pressure is high, but the incremental space is shrinking. Long - position opportunities for far - month contracts can be considered, and short - selling on a short - term basis is not recommended blindly [1][18]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Beans Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of beans meal (main contract daily closing) is 3113 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan or 1.49% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 3097.14 yuan/ton, down 4.57 yuan or 0.15% [3]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory is 892.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.20 million tons from last week; the beans meal inventory is 101.47 million tons, an increase of 1.12 million tons or 1.12% from last week [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment in the next one to two weeks, paying attention to the final US soybean area and yield data [5]. Rapeseed Meal - **Price Information**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2561 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan or 2.51% from the previous day; the national average spot price is 2627.89 yuan/ton, down 47.37 yuan or 1.77% [6]. - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory is 11.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.38 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory is 2.55 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from last week [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities after adjustment and stabilization, but be cautious when chasing long positions [7]. Palm Oil - **Inventory Information**: As of August 15, 2025, the national key area palm oil commercial inventory is 61.73 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons or 2.92% from last week [8]. - **Export Information**: Malaysia's palm oil product exports from August 1 - 20, 2025, are 869,780 tons, an increase of 17.5% from the same period last month [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a buying - on - dips strategy, paying attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on crude oil prices and the estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil this month [8]. Cotton - **Price Information**: The main contract of Zheng cotton, CF2509, increases by 0.11% to 14030 yuan/ton; the domestic spot price drops by 0.19% to 15211 yuan/ton; the main contract of ICE cotton drops by 0.19% to 67.47 cents/pound [11]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: In the US, the drought area in the cotton - growing region expands, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton increases by 2% to 55%. In China, Xinjiang's new cotton production is expected to exceed 740 million tons, and the import volume in July is 5 million tons. The domestic cotton commercial inventory decreases by 15.06 million tons to 185.61 million tons [11][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider，buying on dips due to the low international cotton price valuation and the supply - tight situation before new cotton listing [13]. Red Dates - **Price Information**: The main contract of red dates, CJ2601, increases by 0.39% to 11470 yuan/ton [14]. - **Production and Inventory Information**: The expected total production of Xinjiang southern gray dates in the 2025/26 season is between 50 - 58 million tons, and the inventory of 36 sample enterprises decreases by 167 tons to 9519 tons [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider short - long opportunities as the market speculation around the opening price is long before November [15]. Live Pigs - **Price Information**: The main contract of live pigs, Lh2511, decreases by 0.18% to 13765 yuan/ton; the domestic live pig spot price drops by 0.07% to 13820 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand Information**: The planned August slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises increases by 5.26% month - on - month. The number of newborn piglets from January to July increases, but the increment of breeding sows slows down. The downstream demand is gradually recovering [16][17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Do not blindly short - sell on a short - term basis. Consider establishing long positions for far - month contracts on dips [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Short-term participation [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][12] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][15][16] - **Manganese silicon**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Cautiously bearish [1][19][20] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: After continuous decline, there may be a short-term rebound. Rebar has high production enthusiasm but weak demand, and supply-demand may loosen. Hot-rolled coil has a relatively stable fundamentals with a loosening supply-demand trend [1][3][4] - **Iron ore**: The industrial fundamentals are weak, and the ore price fluctuates weakly. The supply is increasing, and it waits for a new downward window [1][6][7] - **Coke**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Spot starts the seventh round of price increase, but may face steel mill games. Supply-demand is balanced, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][9][11] - **Coking coal**: Medium-term is weak, short-term is volatile. Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports increase. There is a downward repair space in the medium term and a short-term rebound possibility [1][13][15] - **Ferroalloys**: Fundamentals are weak, and prices run weakly. Manganese silicon has short-term demand resilience but high inventory. Silicon iron has increasing production, falling demand, and high supply pressure [1][17][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: High furnace and electric furnace profits, high iron water production, weak demand, lower-than-expected production restrictions, supply-demand loosening, possible short-term rebound due to policy [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, limited impact of production restrictions, downward price with limited short-term downside, possible short-term rebound [1][4][5] Iron ore - **Price data**: Futures prices for different contracts are provided, along with spot prices, spreads, and freight rates [6] - **Fundamentals**: Increasing iron water production, insufficient environmental protection restrictions, end of steel mill restocking, port inventory accumulation, and a weakening supply-demand situation [7] Coke - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and profit data are given [10] - **Fundamentals**: Spot price increase, improved coke enterprise profits, balanced supply-demand, stable production and inventory, possible short-term rebound [11] Coking coal - **Price and inventory data**: Futures prices, basis, spot prices, and weekly production, inventory, and utilization rate data are provided [14] - **Fundamentals**: Flat domestic production, increased Mongolian coal imports, high iron water production, stable demand, medium-term downward repair space, short-term rebound possibility [15] Ferroalloys - **Manganese silicon**: Loosening fundamentals, short-term demand resilience, high inventory, increased manganese ore shipments, stable port inventory, possible short-term rebound, medium-term sell-on-rally strategy [19][20] - **Silicon iron**: Increasing production, falling demand, high supply pressure, possible short-term rebound after over - decline, short - selling participation [19][20]

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]