Report Industry Investment Rating - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish continuation [4] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [4] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil supply is in excess, and prices are under downward pressure. LPG is affected by high warehouse receipts and weak cost, with prices trending downwards. L and PP have insufficient upward drivers due to balanced supply and demand. PVC has cost support but weak fundamentals. PX and PTA are affected by supply - demand expectations and macro factors, showing a weakening trend. Ethylene glycol has supply pressure and weak demand. Methanol's downward space may be limited. Urea has a supply - demand imbalance and inventory accumulation. Natural gas prices are affected by inventory and seasonality. Asphalt is pressured by cost and supply - demand. Glass and soda ash are affected by supply and demand in the real estate and downstream industries [1][2][4] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.19%, Brent down 0.11%, and SC down 1.43% [5] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks decline, supply is in excess, and the US crude oil inventory has unexpectedly decreased, providing short - term support. In the long - term, supply may push prices down to around $60 [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the $60 support level and the [470 - 480] range for SC [8] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 20, the PG main contract closed at 4,293 yuan/ton, down 1.72% [11] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of crude oil is weak, demand is weak, warehouse receipts are at a high level, supply is increasing, and inventory is rising [12] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the [4250 - 4350] range [13] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,130 yuan/ton, with a decline [17] - **Basic Logic**: Spot prices stop falling and rebound, the basis continues to repair. Supply is abundant, and demand is strengthening, but there is insufficient upward drive [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for a pullback to try long positions. Pay attention to the [7050 - 7200] range [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,873 yuan/ton, with a decline [22] - **Basic Logic**: The market is bearish, the basis is strengthening, cost pressure is high, supply pressure may ease, and demand is slowly increasing [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The industry can hedge at high prices. Do not chase short positions for absolute prices. Pay attention to the [6800 - 6950] range [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,938 yuan/ton, with a decline [27] - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, warehouse receipts decline, supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Exports are strong [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try long positions on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [4850 - 5000] range [28] PX - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, with a decline [31] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, inventory is high, and macro factors are negative [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and sell call options. Pay attention to the [6500 - 6580] range [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, with a decline [34] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming, demand is weak, and cost support exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the [4525 - 4575] range [36] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, with a decline [39] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is low, providing some support [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the [4200 - 4240] range [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 19, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 2,361 yuan/ton [42] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is still large, but demand is improving, and cost support is stabilizing [43] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract on pullbacks. Pay attention to the [2331 - 2361] range [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 19, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton [47] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [48] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and sell call options [2] Natural Gas - **Basic Logic**: US natural gas inventory has increased more than expected, and prices are weakening. Cooling weather provides some support [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously hold short positions [4] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: Cost is weak, supply pressure is increasing, and supply - demand is loose [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions [4] Glass - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is expected to increase [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term wait - and - see, long - term short on rebounds [4] Soda Ash - **Basic Logic**: Demand is improving, supply is expected to be loose, and pay attention to downstream restocking [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds in the long - term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline in soybean meal**: Domestic short - term supply is sufficient, and the approaching US soybean harvest weighs on soybean meal. However, due to Sino - US trade issues, the short - term continuous decline space is limited. There is a possibility of a retracement to 2930 yuan for support confirmation. Be cautious about bullish operations before the holiday [1][4]. - **Short - term decline in rapeseed meal**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to mixed long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - Canadian trade [1][6]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in palm oil**: Indonesian and Malaysian biodiesel policies are positive for consumption expectations, but frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may limit its performance before the double holidays. Be cautious about bullish operations [1][8]. - **Short - term continued adjustment in soybean oil**: Frequent changes in US biodiesel policies and the approaching US soybean harvest may pressure soybean oil, while domestic double - festival stocking demand is positive, but there is a lack of its own upward - driving force. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end [1]. - **Oscillating and bullish in rapeseed oil**: Sino - Canadian trade disputes and double - festival demand support high - level and strong oscillations, but the resumption of Sino - Australian trade restricts continuous upward movement. Pay attention to Sino - Canadian negotiations and US biodiesel policies [1]. - **Cautiously bearish on cotton**: US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries' increasing supply pressures the market, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton harvesting has started with no obvious price - holding behavior. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is not ideal. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [1][12]. - **Cautiously bearish on red dates**: Although there is an expected reduction in new - season production, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap after considering inventory. The weather speculation window is shrinking, but there may be large fluctuations before November. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [1][14]. - **Cautiously bearish on live pigs**: The spot market is under continuous pressure from supply, and the bearish sentiment in the futures market is rising. In the short and medium term, supply pressure is obvious. Consider short - selling the November contract on rebounds and maintaining the reverse - spread strategy [1][17]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, down 70.3 million tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 694.66 million tons, down 38.54 million tons week - on - week; and bean粕 inventory was 125 million tons, up 8.56 million tons week - on - week [3]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3034 yuan/ton, up 0.66% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, up 0.60% [2]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average soybean crushing profit was - 150.7804 yuan/ton, up 14.45 yuan; the basis of bean粕01 was - 84 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. Rapeseed Meal - **Inventory**: As of September 19, coastal area main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, down 2.8 million tons week - on - week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2675.79 yuan/ton, up 0.40% [5]. - **Profit and Basis**: The national average rapeseed spot pressing profit was - 172.3755 yuan/ton, up 18.69 yuan; the basis of rapeseed meal01 was 42 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [5]. Palm Oil - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the national key area commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, down 5.64 million tons week - on - week; the weekly commercial inventory was 64.15 million tons, up 2.22 million tons [7][8]. - **Prices**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 9316 yuan/ton, up 0.13% from the previous day; the import cost was 9411 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [7]. - **Market Sentiment**: The proportion of bullish views was 29%, down 6 percentage points; the proportion of bearish views was 47%, up 29 percentage points [7]. Cotton - **Inventory**: As of a certain period, domestic cotton commercial inventory dropped to 127 million tons, lower than the same period last year [11]. - **Prices**: The main contract CF2601 closed at 13610 yuan/ton, down 0.80% from the previous day; the domestic spot price was 15242 yuan/ton, down 0.33% [9][10]. - **Operation and Profit**: The mainstream area spinning mills' operating rate was 66.6%, up 0.1 percentage point; the weaving mills' operating rate was 37.9%, down 0.1 percentage point; the spinning mills' cotton profit was - 994.30 yuan/ton, up 112.20 yuan [9]. Red Dates - **Inventory**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9247 tons, down 74 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Prices**: The main contract CJ2601 closed at 10735 yuan/ton, up 0.61% from the previous day; the spot price of Kashgar general - grade dates remained unchanged at 6 yuan/kg [13]. - **Market Situation**: The yield is expected to decrease, but there may not be a significant supply - demand gap after considering inventory [14]. Live Pigs - **Inventory and Supply**: The national sample enterprises' live - pig存栏 was 3782.4 million heads, up 0.51%; the planned September slaughter volume of Mysteel sample enterprises is expected to increase by 1.29% month - on - month [15][16]. - **Prices**: The main contract Lh2511 closed at 12795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day; the latest spot price was 12930 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [15][16]. - **Operation and Profit**: The key slaughter enterprises' daily operating rate was 32.95%, up 0.21 percentage points; the slaughter profit was - 18.2 yuan/head, up 0.70 yuan [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are expected to improve, and the price is likely to continue its low-level rebound. The cost support has improved due to the firm performance of calcium carbide prices, and the supply pressure is expected to ease as more maintenance plans are scheduled for October. Although exports are affected by policies, the growth rate remains strong. The inventory structure of the industrial chain is differentiated, and the spot price is firm. With the strengthening of the basis, the risk-free arbitrage space in the industry has disappeared, and the hedging pressure has decreased [4]. Summary of Each Section PVC Market Review - This week, PVC fluctuated and rose. It opened higher on Monday at 4883 (up 12 points or 0.24% from last week's close), fell slightly to the daily low of 4863, and then rose strongly. It reached a new monthly high of 4994 on Wednesday morning before falling slightly, and finally closed at 4950 (up 74 points or 1.48% from last week's close). The weekly range was between 4863 and 4994, with an amplitude of 131 points [8]. - As of Friday, the closing price of the PVC01 contract was 4950 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 74 yuan). The main position of PVC was 1.13 million lots, and the market sentiment improved, leading to a rebound with reduced positions [11]. - As of Friday, the PVC basis in Changzhou was -170 yuan/ton, and both the futures and spot prices strengthened slightly. The PVC warehouse receipts were 110,000 lots (weekly decrease of 10,000 lots) [13]. - As of Friday, the V1 - 5 spread was -303 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the V3 - 5 spread was -226 yuan/ton (increase of 10 yuan) [16]. - This week, the price difference between ethylene - based and calcium carbide - based PVC in East China was 223 yuan/ton (decrease of 70 yuan) [19]. Supply - The intensity of device maintenance increased, and the output declined from a high level. This week, the PVC output was 460,000 tons (a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week), and the capacity utilization rate was 77%. The cumulative output from week 1 to 38 increased by 4.3% year - on - year [22]. - Next week, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese PVC is expected to be 78%, higher than the current level. The maintenance of Gansu Jinchuan and Zhongtai Shengxiong plants will end, and there are no new enterprises joining the maintenance, so the overall supply is expected to increase [22]. Real Estate - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes in the new construction, construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate were -19.5%, -9.3%, -17.0%, and -4.7% respectively, with the decline rates expanding. In August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year changes were -19.8%, -28.6%, -21.3%, and -11.0% respectively, and the decline rate of sales area has been expanding for 5 consecutive months. In August 2025, the year - on - year change of the new commercial housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities was -2.95% [25]. - This week, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities was 2.2 million square meters [28]. Domestic Demand - This week, the downstream operating rate was 49%, increasing for 3 consecutive weeks and exceeding the level of the same period last year. Among them, the operating rate of pipes has increased significantly in the past two weeks [30]. Exports - From January to August 2025, the PVC export volume was 2.57 million tons (an increase of 910,000 tons year - on - year), with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55%. In August 2025, the export volume was 28,400 tons (including 11,000 tons to India) [33]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 245,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). In July 2025, the export volume of PVC flooring was 35,000 tons (a year - on - year decrease of 11%). (Note: Each ton of PVC flooring consumes about 0.3 tons of PVC powder) [36]. Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 310,000 tons (a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory reduction for 2 consecutive weeks. The pre - sales volume of upstream enterprises was 756,000 tons (an increase of 70,000 tons from the previous week), at a high level in the same period. The PVC price fluctuated slightly this week, and manufacturers sold goods with price support and delivered some export orders. It is expected that the in - stock inventory of PVC enterprises will decrease slightly next week [39]. - As of Thursday this week, the small - sample social inventory of PVC was 530,000 tons (an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week), and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. The large - sample social inventory was 950,000 tons (an increase of 19,000 tons from the previous week), with inventory accumulation for 13 consecutive weeks and a total inventory accumulation of 365,000 tons [41]. Profit - This week, the gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC was -502 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81 yuan from the previous week), with profit contraction for 3 consecutive weeks [44]. - This week, the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC was -672 yuan/ton, with profit contraction for 6 consecutive weeks [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the cotton industry is neutral to bearish [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gradual increase in the supply of new cotton is putting pressure on the market, but there may still be a risk of a short - term rebound due to potential local抢购 (hoarding) at the beginning. The demand side shows a weak trend, especially in the export market. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. The market expects a more than 90% chance of another rate cut in October. China held a press conference to introduce policies to expand service consumption [3] Supply Factors International - In the US, the cotton boll opening rate reached 50%, the harvest progress was 9%, and the good - to - excellent rate decreased by 2% to 52% but was still 13% higher than the same period. The USDA maintained its view of US cotton production at 2.878 million tons. The overall US cotton signing progress lags behind recent years. In Brazil, the harvest progress reached 90%, and the expected production is 4 million tons. Other major northern - hemisphere producing countries are also about to enter the harvest season [3] Domestic - Domestic and international institutions have further raised the production forecast, with a guaranteed production of 7.4 million tons. New cotton has started to be harvested and inspected, and there is no obvious negative impact from rain. The pre - purchase volume of the new season may have reached over 1.5 million tons, nearly three times that of the same period last year. The initial opening price in Xinjiang is expected to be between 6.1 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the cost of lint production is about 13,900 - 15,100 yuan/ton. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources was about 193,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,644 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 56,795 tons [3] Inventory Factors - Domestically, the commercial destocking of cotton is still relatively fast, and the year - on - year difference is further widening. In the short term, the circulation pattern may still be tight. The terminal inventory continues to decline slightly, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is not strong. The USDA has lowered China's cotton stock - to - use ratio to a relatively low level in the past five years, which is expected to improve the center of cotton prices in the new year [3] Demand Factors - Domestically, the seasonal increase in the downstream operating rate and orders is blocked, and the performance is weak year - on - year. In August, the retail sales data showed an expanding year - on - year increase, but the foreign trade data was poor. The export of textile and clothing products to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly due to textiles [3] Cotton Futures and Spot - Both the fundamental and macro - economic aspects are weak. The cotton price rose and then fell during the week [7] Supply Details - In terms of raw materials, the national commercial inventory decreased by 129,200 tons to 1.2718 million tons this week; the Xinjiang commercial inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 649,800 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces decreased by 39,500 tons to 331,500 tons. In terms of finished products, the inventory - available days of pure cotton yarn decreased by 0.04 days to 31.7 days, the terminal grey fabric inventory decreased by 0.3 days to 25.94 days, and the factory's polyester - cotton yarn inventory decreased by 0.42 days to 28 days. In August, the total import volume of cotton resources increased month - on - month. As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 4,232, equivalent to 169,280 tons of cotton, and the outflow of warehouse receipts during the week was equivalent to 31,350 tons of cotton [19][21][23] Demand Details - The operating rate of spinning mills increased by 0.1% to 66.6% week - on - week, lower than the same period by 5.8%; the operating rate of weaving mills decreased by 0.1% to 37.9%, lower than the same period by 14.5%. The orders of textile enterprises increased by 0.53 days to 14.42 days, higher than the same period by 0.62 days. The immediate profit of the mainstream yarn count in the inland area weakened slightly to - 1,311 yuan/ton. The total cotton cloth sales volume in the light textile city increased marginally. The fabric price index in Keqiao increased by 0.18 to 110.9, and the auxiliary material price index decreased by 3.36 to 115.5. In August, the PMI of the cotton textile industry increased seasonally but was weak year - on - year. The retail sales of clothing and textiles in August increased year - on - year, but the export of textile and clothing decreased by 5% year - on - year. Exports to the US and the EU continued to weaken, while exports to ASEAN increased slightly [25][27][30][33][35] CFTC Position Data - The historically high volume of unpriced buy orders continues to suppress the rebound space of ICE [50] Macroeconomic Details - In August, domestic tax revenue weakened year - on - year, and the overseas consumer confidence index rebounded slightly [57]

中辉期货铁合金周报 上行驱动有限，谨慎追多 中辉黑色研究团队 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 报告日期：2025/09/19 硅锰观点摘要 【供需分析】：供给端，周度产量环比下降约0.54万吨，开工率环比下降1.7%。目前北方地区小幅减产，南 方开工率小幅增加，云南地区开工率继续增至96.43%，日均产量处近五年同期最高水平。需求端，铁水产量 维持在240万吨以上运行，螺纹钢产量环比下降。目前新一轮钢招已进入尾声，标志性钢厂招标最终定价6000 元/吨，关注其他地区钢厂定价情况。 【库存情况】：企业库存合计19.89万吨，周环比增加3.21万吨；截至9月18日，硅锰仓单数量合计6.09万张， 较上周五减少0.04万张；有效预报合计2994张，维持不变。目前交割库存（含预报）合计31.99万吨，下降幅 度放缓。 【成本利润】：锰矿方面，本周港口锰矿价格持稳运行，部分矿品小幅上涨。供应端，本期三大国发运量合 计87.45万吨，环比减少7.48万吨。到货量合计66万吨，环比增加30.05万吨，增量主要来自南非和澳大利亚， 加蓬矿本周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, but Powell's hawkish stance led to a rebound in the US dollar index. The market traded on the "buy the fact, sell the expectation" principle, causing copper prices to correct from their highs and give back gains. In the short term, copper prices found support at the 30 - day moving average and rebounded. With the upcoming National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits. In the long term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Economy - **Fed Interest Rate Decision**: On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.50% to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut since December 2024, signaling the start of an interest - rate cut cycle. It was a "risk - management" move to balance inflation and employment risks. It is expected that there may be two more rate cuts this year, and the median interest rate may drop to 3.6% by the end of 2025. However, due to factors such as long - term tariff impacts and an unimproved job market, the US economy may face higher downside risks in 2026, and the actual number of rate cuts may be more. Powell's remarks dampened the market's pricing for a 50bp recession - style rate cut and a significant decline in the terminal interest rate. The Fed's rate cut provides room for China's domestic monetary policy, but in the short term, the central bank may prioritize fiscal stimulus, and the probability of a rate cut is low. The US dollar index rebounded to 97.36, back above the 97 mark [11]. - **China's August Macroeconomic Data**: Social financing reached a peak and then declined, with weak credit. In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, 465.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, lower than the seasonal level. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than the previous month. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed to 2.8%. The growth rate of industrial added value, consumption, and investment all slowed down, and PPI rebounded. The growth momentum needs to be strengthened [14]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side** - **Copper Concentrate**: In August 2024, China imported 257.4 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a month - on - month increase of 18.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. From January to August, the cumulative import of copper concentrates was 1.8635 billion tons, a 3.2% increase from the same period last year. As of September 12, the port inventory was only 692,700 tons, 26.2% less than the average of the past three years. As of June 2025, the global monthly output of copper concentrates was 1.916 million tons, a decrease of 81,000 tons or 4.06% from May. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 79%, a 0.9% decrease from May. As of September 18, the SMM imported copper concentrate index was - 41.3 dollars/ton, and the copper concentrate TC was - 41.4 dollars/ton, still at a historically low level, with the smelting processing fee deeply inverted [36]. - **Scrap Copper**: As of September 19, the scrap - refined copper price spread was 1,752 yuan/ton, a decrease of 193 yuan/ton from last Friday, with relatively small fluctuations. In July 2025, China's imports of copper waste and scrap reached 190,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.73% and a slight year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 1.3355 million tons, a 0.77% year - on - year decrease. In July, the output of blister copper was 1.0413 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.64%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 6.9267 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.58%. In July, China imported 84,200 tons of anode copper, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. From January to July, the cumulative import was 467,000 tons, a 12.72% year - on - year decrease. The domestic blister copper processing fee remained at 700 yuan/ton, and the CIF imported blister copper processing fee was 85 dollars/ton, at a historically low level [40]. - **Refined Copper**: In August, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China decreased by 28,000 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 0.24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. From January to August, the cumulative output increased by 978,800 tons year - on - year, an increase of 12.30%. In August, the copper smelting start - up rate was 87.97%, a 0.21% month - on - month decrease. In September, five smelters plan to conduct maintenance, involving a production capacity of 1 million tons. It is expected that the output of electrolytic copper will continue to decline in September. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that from January to June 2025, the global copper market had a total supply surplus of 251,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 395,000 tons in the same period in 2024 [45]. - **Demand Side** - **Mid - and Downstream Industries**: In August, the output of copper products was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%. From January to August, the cumulative output of copper products was 16.598 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7%. The start - up rates of mid - and downstream processing enterprises rebounded slightly in August. The latest weekly start - up rate of domestic electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.73%, a 3.2% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 23.33%, a 0.66% month - on - month increase; the weekly start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises was 65.84%, a 1.78% month - on - month decrease [52]. - **Terminal Demand**: From January to July, power grid project investment reached 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5%. Power source project investment reached 428.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to July, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.2GW. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the expected new installed capacity for this year to 270 - 300GW. In 2025 from January to August, the real estate market continued to bottom out. In August, automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.8% year - on - year, accounting for 48.8% of total new vehicle sales. In September, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, and the online and offline sales of air conditioners and color TVs in the second week of September also declined year - on - year [59]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook - **Short - Term Outlook**: With the Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and copper prices corrected from their highs. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk - aversion sentiment may intensify. It is recommended to take profits on long copper positions and either go empty or hold light positions during the holiday. Enterprises are advised to consider selling hedges at high prices to lock in reasonable profits [6][77]. - **Long - Term Outlook**: Copper is highly regarded in the long term as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, combined with the tight supply of copper concentrates and the booming demand for green copper [6][77].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, steel futures fluctuated upward with strong performance. In terms of supply and demand, hot metal production remained above 2.4 million tons, at a relatively high level. Rebar production decreased month - on - month, demand rebounded, and inventory started to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils were generally stable, with both production and demand at high levels. There were no significant contradictions in iron ore and coking coal on the raw material side. With high hot metal production, demand was guaranteed. Although coking coal production continued to recover month - on - month, it was still lower than the same period last year. Currently, the pressure on the black market is mainly reflected in rebar, but the inventory and warehouse receipt volume in Hangzhou decreased, and the spot pressure improved marginally. The overall macro - sentiment remained positive [2]. - The month - on - month rebound in demand and the decline in inventory are normal at this stage, and there is little possibility of continuous above - seasonal performance in the future. The current market rally is a rebound under the background of relatively balanced raw materials, the influence of "anti - involution" news, and strong macro - sentiment. In the short term, it may be supported by meetings and policies, but approaching the October delivery, the logic may have an adverse impact on the market, and it is difficult to have a trending market. It will mainly fluctuate within a range, showing a pattern of being strong first and then weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - **Monthly Steel Data (August 2025)**: Pig iron production was 69.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%; cumulative production was 579.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Crude steel production was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; cumulative production was 671.81 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. Steel production was 122.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%; cumulative production was 982.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. Steel imports were 0.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; cumulative imports were 3.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%. Steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%; cumulative exports were 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [5]. - **Weekly Five - Major Steel Products Data (September 19, 2025)**: The total production of five - major steel products was 8.5546 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. Total consumption was 8.5 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17%. Total inventory was 15.2 million tons, an increase of 51,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.95% [6]. Production - related - **Steel Production**: The report provides seasonal charts of monthly crude steel production and weekly five - major steel products production [8]. - **Blast Furnace Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly average hot metal production, steel profitability, blast furnace operation rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate in China are presented [10]. - **Building Materials Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [12]. - **Coil Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual production of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and medium - thick plates in China are given [13]. - **Short - Process Production**: Seasonal charts of weekly actual short - process production of rebar and wire rod are provided [16]. - **Electric Furnace Profit**: Seasonal charts of building steel regional profits and rebar - steel price differentials are presented [18]. - **Steel Production Profit**: On September 19, 2025, the profit changes of rebar - blast furnace, rebar - electric furnace (valley - rate electricity), rebar - electric furnace (flat - rate electricity), and hot - rolled coil - blast furnace in different regions (East China, North China, and Central China) are provided [20]. Demand - related - **Steel Demand**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of five - major steel products and the total trading volume of building steel in the mainstream market in China are presented [22]. - **Building Materials Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of rebar and wire rod in China are provided [24]. - **Real Estate High - Frequency Data**: The cumulative year - on - year decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 4.5%. The cumulative transaction area of 100 plots of land decreased by 10% year - on - year [27]. - **Cement and Concrete Demand**: Cement outbound volume improved marginally, with a cumulative year - on - year decline of 27%. Concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decline of 14% [30]. - **Coil Consumption**: Seasonal charts of weekly consumption of medium - thick plates, cold - rolled coils, and hot - rolled coils in China are provided [31][32][34]. - **Steel Exports**: Steel exports in August decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a high level for the same period [37]. Inventory - related - **Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio of five - major steel products are presented [38]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Seasonal charts of rebar inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are provided [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Seasonal charts of hot - rolled coil inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio are given [42]. - **Other Steel Inventory**: Seasonal charts of weekly inventory of wire rod, medium - thick plate, and cold - rolled coil in China are provided [43][45]. Price - related - **Rebar Basis**: Rebar basis has been relatively stable recently. The basis for the October contract is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the basis for the January contract is at a neutral level. Currently, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar is the highest for the same period, strongly suppressing the October contract, and the near - month basis may remain relatively high [50]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Basis**: The basis of the October contract of hot - rolled coils remained stable with a slight decline this week, and the basis of the January contract was stable [59]. - **Rebar Month - Spread**: The rebar month - spread moved at a low level this week with limited fluctuations. A large number of rebar warehouse receipts continued to suppress the October contract [64]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread**: The 10 - 1 month - spread of hot - rolled coils has strengthened recently. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are relatively stable, with few warehouse receipts, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is at a neutral level [69]. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**: Seasonal charts of the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread are presented [70]. - **Spot Regional Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) and hot - rolled coil regional spreads (Shanghai, Guangzhou - Shanghai) are provided [73][74][75]. - **Spot Product Spread**: Seasonal charts of rebar - steel spreads (East China), cold - hot spreads (Shanghai), wire rod - rebar spreads (Shanghai), and medium - thick plate - hot - rolled coil spreads (Shanghai) are presented [78][79]. Others - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Warehouse Receipt Volume**: Seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil warehouse receipt volume are provided [80]. - **Position Volume**: Seasonal charts of position volume are presented [81].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish rebound [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [4] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [4] Core Views - Oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing, with oversupply remaining the core driver. Short - term geopolitical disturbances have less impact, and the downward pressure on oil prices is significant [1]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, downstream chemical开工率 is declining, and LPG is expected to remain bearish [1]. - Cost support is weak, previously shut - down devices are resuming operation, and the upward driving force for L is insufficient despite strong supply and demand [1]. - High maintenance cannot offset high expansion in the PP market, and the peak season is under - performing expectations. The spot market is weak, and the basis is at a low level [1]. - Cost support for PVC has improved, and exports remain strong. Although the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand, there is a rebound due to high - level decline in warehouse receipts [1]. - Supply - side and demand - side changes in PX lead to a looser expectation of tight balance, and it is oscillating weakly under macro - pressure [30]. - For PTA, the expected increase in device maintenance will ease supply - side pressure, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is under - performing, and the demand side is weak [34]. - Domestic ethylene glycol devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing, but low inventory provides some support [39]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand side has improved, and the cost support is stabilizing. There is limited downward space [42]. - Urea has strong supply and weak demand, with continuous inventory accumulation, and the fundamentals remain weak [47]. - US natural gas inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. - Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - The glass market has a strong supply pressure, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - The demand for soda ash has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 0.69%, Brent down 1.52%, and SC down 0.70% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Geopolitical risks have declined, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. US crude oil inventory has decreased more than expected in the short term, but there is a long - term oversupply risk [6]. As of September 12, US net imports decreased, exports increased, and commercial crude inventory decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells around $60. SC focuses on the range of [480 - 490] [8]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the PG main contract closed at 4368 yuan/ton, down 0.73% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil supply exceeds demand, and downstream chemical profits have declined, with reduced开工率. Supply has increased, and inventory has risen [11]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4250 - 4350] [12]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 7169 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support is weak, devices are resuming operation, and supply is increasing. The peak season for shed films has begun, and demand support is strengthening, but the upward driving force is insufficient [17]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to basis repair and wait for dips to go long. L focuses on the range of [7100 - 7200] [17]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6914 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil is weak, high expansion outweighs high maintenance, and the peak season is disappointing. The basis is at a low level, and downstream demand is slowly increasing [22]. - **Strategy**: The industry can hedge on rallies. PP focuses on the range of [6850 - 7000] [22]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4950 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [25]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support has improved, exports are strong, and warehouse receipts have decreased. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and social inventory has increased for 13 consecutive weeks [27]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips due to low valuation. V focuses on the range of [4900 - 5050] [27]. PX - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PX spot price was 6773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The main contract's trading volume and open interest increased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side devices have slightly increased their load, and demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the future. Inventory is high, and PXN is relatively high this year. Macro - factors put pressure on prices [30]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and sell call options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6525 - 6630] [31]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On September 19, PTA in East China was 4555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4604 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan [33]. - **Fundamentals**: Device maintenance is expected to increase, easing supply - side pressure. The "Golden September and Silver October" season is under - performing, and demand is weak. Inventory is decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to expand PTA processing fees [2]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4317 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their load, overseas devices have changed little, and the consumption season is under - performing. Low inventory provides some support [39]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions cautiously and look for opportunities to short on rallies. EG01 focuses on the range of [4230 - 4270] [40]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [41]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic device maintenance has increased, and overseas device load has slightly decreased. Demand has improved, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. Cost support is stabilizing [42]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 01 contract. MA01 focuses on the range of [2340 - 2380] [44]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 1661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [46]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and cost support is expected to weaken [47]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions and sell call options. Focus on the range of [1645 - 1665] [49]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: As of the week ending September 12, US natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2433 billion cubic feet [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, causing gas prices to weaken, but the need for winter gas storage provides some support [4]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - side oil prices are weakening, and asphalt supply and demand are generally loose, with high valuation [4]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions [4]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is strong, and the peak - season demand provides short - term support, but the medium - and long - term pattern is loose [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Not specifically mentioned in the report. - **Fundamentals**: Demand has slightly improved, but the supply is expected to remain loose in the medium - and long - term [4]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long, medium - and long - term short on rallies [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of both supply and demand booming, with support for lithium prices. The total inventory has been decreasing for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of upstream smelters is significantly lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, the issue of mining licenses in Jiangxi may attract the attention of funds again. Lithium carbonate should be treated with a low - buy strategy [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Overview - In August, China's economic data showed characteristics of "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing has increased. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and an increase in inflation, and is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, while the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening [3]. Supply Side - This week, the production of lithium carbonate continued to increase, with the weekly production maintaining above 20,000 tons and reaching a new high this year. The production of all raw materials increased slightly. As of September 19, the production of lithium carbonate was 21,125 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 48.93%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29% [3][10]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium hydroxide was 5,360 tons, a week - on - week increase of 125 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 36.9%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86%. This week, the production of lithium hydroxide was still restricted by the high price of externally purchased raw materials and the maintenance of some production lines, with limited production release [12]. - As of September 19, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 78,226 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 81 tons, and the enterprise operating rate was 68.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06%. The "Special Action Plan for the Large - scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025 - 2027)" has driven the significant growth of orders from mainstream battery enterprises recently, which has led to the demand for shipments from lithium iron phosphate manufacturers [14]. Demand Side - From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China were 438,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a 10% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate was 59.8%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.008 million units, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles from manufacturers was 447,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10% compared with the same period in September last year and a 21% increase compared with the same period last month, and the wholesale penetration rate was 57.7% [3]. Cost Profit - This week, the price of the mining end increased month - on - month. The quotation of African SC 5% was 610 US dollars per ton, unchanged from last week; the CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was 830 US dollars per ton, a week - on - week increase of 30 US dollars per ton; the market price of lithium mica was 2,330 yuan per ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 19, the production cost of lithium carbonate was 68,169 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,802 yuan, and the industry profit was 5,213 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,595 yuan [4][46]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium hydroxide was 68,462 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan, and the industry profit was 6,571 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan [51]. - As of September 19, the production cost of lithium iron phosphate was 34,583 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 220 yuan per ton, and the loss was 735 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 207 yuan per ton [53]. Total Inventory - As of September 18, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 137,531 tons, a decrease of 981 tons from last week. Among them, the inventory of upstream smelters was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,757 tons. The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, the inventory of smelters decreased rapidly, the downstream production schedule was good, maintaining the restocking rhythm, traders actively shipped, the inventory decreased, and the restocking sentiment was strong [5][32]. - As of September 19, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week. This week, the finished - product inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased significantly. The industry is in a situation of both supply and demand booming, and the supply of the lithium iron phosphate industry in September increased by more than 5% month - on - month [35]. Market Price - As of September 19, LC2511 closed at 73,960 yuan per ton, a 3.9% increase from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan per ton, a 2.82% increase from last week, with a basis discount, and the position of the main contract was 280,000 [8]. - The prices of various lithium - related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 3.75% week - on - week, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.82% week - on - week, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.88% week - on - week [6].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 降息周期开启，美国内部政策、地缘变化都将为黄金提供支撑。尽管黄金有卖现实 | | 黄金 ★★ | 长期持有 | 交易，但是中长期黄金支撑逻辑不变，降息周期开启，地缘重塑，央行买黄金，黄 | | | | 金战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 无论是美联储与白宫有分歧、对国内释放政策期待，宏观政策处于观察期。白银需 | | | 强势走高 | 求坚挺，供供需缺口明显，白银长期看多逻辑不变。但是白银弹性大，黄金等品种 | | ★★ | | 波动会白银盘面波动有冲击。短线等待企稳后做新的入场打算 | | | | 宏观和板块情绪修正，铜止跌企稳，反弹回 8 万关口，建议多单可止盈兑现，国庆 | | 铜 | 多单止盈 | 假期临近，长假避险情绪或发酵，准备空仓或轻仓过节。中长期，对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | | 锌 | | 锌国内库存累库，需求疲软，短期震荡偏弱，跌破下方关口支撑，中长期看锌供增 | | ★ | 承压 | 需减，仍是板块空头配置。 | | 铅 | | 国内原生铅与再生铅企业检修增多，其 ...