1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The trend is stabilizing, and there is a style catch - up. The Shanghai Composite Index stood above 4,100 points on Wednesday, indicating a return to a bullish offensive. There are two possibilities for style catch - up: technology, which has a high - growth foundation and has been fully corrected in January; and value dividends, which had limited previous gains. Before the Spring Festival, value dividends tend to be dominant, but after the long holiday, small - cap growth stocks have the highest winning rate. It is recommended to buy IM long positions before the festival [1][6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Implied volatility continues to decline, and the strategy is mainly to increase returns by selling options. The underlying large - and small - cap stocks were differentiated on Wednesday. The implied volatility of options continued to decline, and the market sentiment stabilized and improved. It is recommended to hold a covered call strategy to increase returns [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The long - end Treasury bond yields rose, and the short - end yields fell, pushing the yield curve to steepen. The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations to increase funds, and the short - term liquidity risk is controllable. The long - end interest rate trend is still unclear and may remain volatile. The short - term strategy is mainly arbitrage, especially focusing on the convergence opportunity of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index oscillated upwards and stood above 4,100 points, fulfilling the prediction of a return to a bullish offensive [1][6]. - **Style Analysis**: There are two possible styles for catch - up: technology, which was a hot topic in December and has a medium level of crowding after a full correction in January; and value dividends, which meet the needs of funds to reduce risk appetite before the Spring Festival while fearing to miss out on the market [1][6]. - **Historical Pattern**: Before the Spring Festival, value dividends tend to be dominant, especially in a shrinking trading volume environment. After the long holiday, small - cap growth stocks have the highest winning rate in a policy - friendly environment [1][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM long positions or ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Data**: On Wednesday, the total trading volume of financial options dropped to 987 million yuan, a 22.9% decrease from Tuesday [6]. - **Sentiment Indicators**: The implied volatility of options continued to decline, the difference between implied and historical volatility narrowed significantly, the position PCR of most varieties rebounded, and the market sentiment stabilized and improved. The ratio PCR of 50 and 300 options continued to rise, indicating relatively strong rebound - gaming sentiment [2][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Hold a covered call strategy to increase returns [2][6]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures fell across the board, and the long - end Treasury bond yields rose while the short - end yields fell, pushing the yield curve to steepen [2][7]. - **Policy Environment**: The central bank conducted large - scale reverse repurchase operations on February 4 to increase funds, and the short - term liquidity risk is controllable. However, attention should be paid to the policy coordination effect at key time points such as the end of the quarter [2][7]. - **Interest Rate Trend**: The long - end interest rate trend is still unclear and may remain volatile [2][7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The trend strategy is to maintain a volatile position. For hedging, pay attention to short - selling hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategy, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities at the ultra - long end. For the curve strategy, pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y spread in the short term [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas market supply concerns are prominent, and the strength of energy products supports chemical prices. The Indonesian government's proposed production - cut plan has led to a suspension of spot coal exports by local miners, with the production quota for major miners last month down 40% - 70% from 2025, causing coal prices to rise. European natural gas inventories are at a low level, and crude oil prices were affected by concerns over the possible cancellation of US - Iran negotiations. Overall, overseas factors have supported the chemical industry [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of geopolitical premium fluctuations with inventory pressure and oversupply. Strong expectations support pure benzene and styrene. PVC may show a pattern of rising first and then falling, with an overall oscillatory trend [3]. - The outlook for the chemical industry is to be treated with an oscillatory mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. - **Market News**: On the week of January 30, US gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels, diesel inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels, and commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels. The refinery capacity utilization rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points. US - Iran nuclear negotiations are scheduled for Friday in Oman [8]. - **Main Logic**: US crude oil inventories decreased last week, and the cold wave's impact was evident. Geopolitical situations continuously disrupt oil prices. The geopolitical premium of crude oil continues to fluctuate due to factors from Russia and Iran. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The fundamentals are in a state of supply surplus, but geopolitical situations may cause frequent potential disruptions to supply expectations, and the geopolitical premium may still fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The disturbance of asphalt raw material supply is expected to ease. - **Main Logic**: Trump's dialogue with Iran and the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will lead to an abundant supply of asphalt raw materials in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared to other products [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price follows the upward trend of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: US assistance to Venezuela's oil production may lead to a surge in heavy - oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation affect fuel oil export expectations and may lead to an increase in fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil power generation in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillation of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by natural gas price fluctuations. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low [11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. Although it is affected by negative factors, its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are oscillating, and the commodity market is slightly warming up. After a significant adjustment, the PX price has stabilized. The high - supply pressure has been slightly relieved, and the market has a consistent positive expectation [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the PX price will oscillate under the guidance of sentiment. Attention should be paid to the support level of around 7,100 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated within the range of [300, 330] US dollars/ton [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: Strong expectations but weak reality, the price will be consolidated within a range. - **Main Logic**: The commodity atmosphere has warmed up, and PTA has stopped falling and stabilized. Although the current supply - demand pattern is weak and the seasonal inventory accumulation is large, the market has strong long - term expectations [13]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and consolidated in the short term. Attention should be paid to the stabilization of the TA05 - 09 spread and the support level of around 5,100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Weak reality but there are still expectations of improvement, and it will be oscillatory and bullish. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene, with a low valuation, has become a choice for capital. Although the current inventory pressure is large, there are expectations of inventory reduction during the spring inspection [14][16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. High inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and there are expectations of inventory reduction in the far - month [17]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. - **Main Logic**: The price of styrene is oscillatory and bullish. Crude oil prices have stabilized, but there are expectations of weakening supply - demand. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and frequent overseas disturbances [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory and bullish. The height of seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be reduced, and it will return to the inventory - reduction trend in March, being easy to rise and difficult to fall [19]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: There are many near - end arrivals, and the price is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up, and the decline of ethylene glycol prices has slowed down. The fundamentals are weak, with a larger seasonal inventory accumulation than in previous years, and the supply pressure restricts the upward price elasticity [20][23]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price will be consolidated within a range. The EG05 contract can be operated within the range of [3,700 - 4,050] yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the EG05 - 09 spread within the range of [- 120, - 85] yuan/ton [24]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. - **Main Logic**: The commodity sentiment has warmed up, and upstream polyester raw materials have risen slightly. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream production cuts and shutdowns have increased, and the demand is weak [25][26]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream products, and the support for processing fees is increasing [26]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chips - **View**: The inventory structure is optimized, and the profitability of bottle chips remains strong. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw material prices have stopped falling and stabilized, and the commodity sentiment has slightly warmed up. The supply has decreased, and the inventory structure has been optimized, resulting in strong profits for polyester factories [27][28]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the movement of raw materials, and the support for processing fees is increasing. Attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA positions [28]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The port inventory has returned to the de - stocking stage, and overseas situations have occasional fluctuations. Methanol will be oscillatory within a range. - **Main Logic**: The methanol price was oscillatory and bullish on February 4, 2026. The inland market trading atmosphere has improved, and the inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased. Although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [29][30]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and is oscillatory and slightly bearish, but the improvement of MTO profits may provide some support [30]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: The order receipt has improved, and the sentiment has warmed up. Urea will be oscillatory and consolidated. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, 2026, the supply of urea was sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector was for pre - Spring Festival fertilization, while industrial demand decreased. The inventory continued to decline, and the market sentiment was slightly bullish [31]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is a game between production enterprises and downstream buyers, and the market is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [31]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: After a small decline in maintenance, the price of plastic will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the plastic futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitical situations, the overall commodity sentiment was weak, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the demand was in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [34]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [34]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Downstream sentiment is cautious before the Spring Festival, and PP will be oscillatory after a fall. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PP futures price was oscillatory. Oil prices were affected by geopolitics, the commodity market sentiment declined, the profit of each production method has been repaired, the downstream is in the off - season, and there are expectations of macro - consumption policy support [35]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [35]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: The spot pressure is not large, and PL will be oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: On February 4, the PL futures price was oscillatory. PDH maintenance provided some support, the supply increase was limited, the inventory was controllable, and the downstream demand was in the off - season [36]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory in the short term [36]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: The coal import disturbance makes the PVC rebound cautious. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, short - term "export rush" supports demand, and inventory has decreased. However, downstream开工 is seasonally weak, and the cost has increased due to coal price expectations [37]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, factors such as "export rush", domestic supply - side policy expectations, and coal import disturbances boost PVC sentiment, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, with an overall oscillatory trend [37]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The demand has improved temporarily, and caustic soda should be observed for the time being. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances have subsided at the macro level. At the micro level, downstream buyers have purchased at low prices before the Spring Festival, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upstream production is still at a high level [37]. - **Outlook**: Oscillatory. The pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment by downstream buyers has relieved the upstream inventory pressure, but the upstream production is still high, so caustic soda should be observed for the time being [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spreads**: The report provides cross - period spreads for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc., including data on the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts for various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: It presents cross - variety spreads for different periods of multiple varieties, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the original text for this part. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index), and plate index (energy index) are provided, along with their latest values, change percentages, and historical price trends [284][286].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a medium - term outlook of "oscillation" for the black building materials industry [7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the steel inventory pressure is increasing, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the iron ore has high shipping and high inventory pressure, and the coal supply is disturbed, but the support for coal - coke replenishment is weakening. The glass supply is also disturbed, but the oversupply restricts the upside space of the glass and soda ash futures [1]. - Overall, the winter storage of furnace materials is coming to an end, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures prices, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space of the cost side is limited. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Inventory pressure is continuously increasing, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand at present need to be verified, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [1]. Carbon Element - The growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. Domestic coal mines will gradually reduce production approaching the holiday, the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, and the fluctuation of the current sentiment remains to be observed [2]. Alloys - The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is limited, the coal price fluctuates within a narrow range, and the power - consumption cost of ferromanganese - silicon is difficult to adjust significantly. The current market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract of ferromanganese - silicon will oscillate around the cost. The supply - demand contradiction in the coal market is not large, the coal price is expected to oscillate, and the cost adjustment of ferrosilicon is difficult to exceed expectations. The current market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is limited. However, the trading activity before the festival is low, and the driving force for the futures price to rise is insufficient. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate around the cost [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances in glass supply, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: The cost support is limited, and the futures price is under pressure. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the overall demand is seasonally weakening. The inventory pressure is increasing, and the fundamentals are gradually accumulating contradictions. It is expected to oscillate widely [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the futures and spot prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased, the arrival at ports has weakened, and the supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand is stable, and the inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both seasonally declining, and the price in East China has slightly increased. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. - **Coke**: The spot price is stable for the time being, and the futures price follows the cost side. The supply change is limited, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory is increasing. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [14]. - **Coking Coal**: As the Spring Festival approaches, coal mines are gradually on holiday, and the futures price is strong due to event disturbances. The supply of domestic coal mines will gradually decline, the import is still at a high level, and the downstream inventory is gradually in place. The fundamentals are healthy, but the bullish driving force is limited. The spot price may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the futures price is expected to oscillate widely [15][16]. - **Glass**: The supply is still disturbed, and the price oscillates upward. The supply is expected to decline in the long term, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate, and if there is no more cold - repair, the high inventory will suppress the price [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The cost drives the sentiment to warm up, and the production remains at a high level. The supply has slightly declined, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the oversupply pattern will intensify in the long term [17][20]. - **Ferromanganese - Silicon**: The futures price center has moved up, but there is still pressure above. The cost support is strengthened, the market trading is cooling down, the cost adjustment is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The trading atmosphere is cold, and the driving force for the price to rise is insufficient. The cost support is strengthened, the cost change is small, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is at a low level. It is expected to oscillate around the cost [21].

1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Precious Metals High Volatility Continues, Stock Index Trends Diverge - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20260205" [1] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to have limited impact on the market. The market views him as a hawkish figure, but it's difficult for him to implement the policy of shrinking the balance sheet. There are resistances for significant hawkish or dovish turns. Attention should be paid to the Iran-US situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The positive policy expectation remains the macro main - line. There is a growing expectation that policies in the first quarter will boost the economy to achieve a "good start" in the 15th Five - Year Plan. The policy environment is favorable. In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were proactive, and the economy showed overall stability with strong exports [9]. - Asset views: Emphasize the structural opportunities of portfolio allocation. Recommend over - allocating IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectation, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectation support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities. Precious metals have high short - term volatility and are recommended to be observed. Non - ferrous metals are relatively advantageous, and black commodities are volatile. Crude oil has high uncertainties [9]. 4. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Market Data 4.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: The prices and various period - on - period changes of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures are presented. For example, the CSI 300 futures price was 4693.6, with a daily increase of 0.2%, a weekly decrease of 0.37%, etc. [2]. - Treasury bonds: Information on 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures is given, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.398, with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2]. 4.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The dollar index was 97.3872, with a daily decrease of 0.23%, and the dollar intermediate price was 6.9385, with a decrease of 68 pips [2]. - Interest rates: Data on various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, 10Y US treasury bond yield, etc., and their changes are provided [2]. 4.1.3 Industry Index - The prices and various period - on - period changes of different industries are shown, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, national defense and military industry, etc. For example, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery index was 5718.7165, with a daily increase of 1.39% [3]. 4.1.4 Domestic and Overseas Commodities - Domestic commodities: Information on various domestic commodities such as shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products is presented, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the gold price was 1143.37, with a daily increase of 4.39% [4]. - Overseas commodities: Data on overseas energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products are provided, including prices and period - on - period changes. For example, the NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.9, with a daily increase of 2.83% [6]. 4.2 Viewpoints on Different Asset Classes 4.2.1 Financial Assets - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with the trend stabilizing and style complementing gains [10]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with implied volatility continuing to decline and selling options to increase income [10]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, as they fell across the board, and factors such as the implementation of monetary policies need to be concerned [10]. 4.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile, as geopolitical conflicts have eased and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [10]. 4.2.3 Shipping - The container shipping to Europe line is expected to be volatile, as spot freight rates are under pressure and shipping companies are reducing prices to attract cargo before the festival [10]. 4.2.4 Black Commodities - Steel products, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are all expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors such as cost support, market sentiment, and supply and demand [10]. 4.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner, while others like zinc, lead, etc. are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as market sentiment, supply and demand, and policies [10]. 4.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply pressure, demand, and geopolitical situations. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [12]. 4.2.7 Agricultural Products - Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors. For example, cotton is expected to rise in a volatile manner, while sugar is expected to decline in a volatile manner [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is likely to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term, while its long - term upward support logic remains unchanged [1] - Silver will also experience wide - range volatility in the short - term with higher volatility risk than gold, and its long - term bullish support is still strong [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Gold - **Market Performance**: Gold prices at home and abroad rose and then fell. COMEX gold price once reached $5,100 per ounce, and Shanghai gold once reached 1,100 yuan per gram [1] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and between Russia and Ukraine increased market risk - aversion. The US ADP employment number and ISM non - manufacturing PMI in January were lower than the previous values, boosting market expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, gold is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend. In the long - term, the upward support logic remains intact [1] Silver - **Market Performance**: Silver prices also rose and then fell. COMEX silver price once reached $92 per ounce, and Shanghai silver once reached 24,000 yuan per gram [2] - **Driving Factors**: Geopolitical changes increased market risk - aversion, but the positive driving force on the silver spot side weakened. Since mid - January, the silver tariff risk has declined, the US silver hoarding pace has slowed down, and the London silver spot lease rate has decreased [2] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, silver is expected to maintain wide - range volatility with greater volatility risk than gold. In the long - term, the bullish support is still strong [2] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index all showed positive growth on February 4, 2026, with growth rates of 1.99%, 2.43%, 1.42%, and 1.75% respectively [42] - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 4, 2026, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 5.88%, a 5 - day decline of 18.91%, a 1 - month increase of 9.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.25% [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend with different commodities having their own characteristics. Some commodities are in a state of shock, while others show signs of rebound or decline. The market is influenced by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：生柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂小幅反弹；豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡 [4]. - **逻辑**：生柴等消息支撑油脂高开，但利多因素预期内，提振效果边际减弱；美豆及美豆油受政策和贸易协定影响，消费及出口预期增强；国内大豆供应充足，春节前油厂开机或下降，豆油可能供需双弱；马来西亚1月棕榈油出口量环比增加；菜油现货库存去化有支撑，但供应预计逐渐恢复 [4]. - **展望**：豆油、棕油、菜油震荡；建议关注回调低位买入套保策略 [4]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡；豆粕和菜粕均震荡 [5]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中国采购转向巴西，美豆出口销售疲弱，巴西大豆收割推进带来销售压力；国内现货油厂一口价持稳，近月基差坚挺，物流收紧，贸易商执行尾单，节后豆粕价格预计承压；菜粕物流收紧，现货成交受限，部分油厂压榨澳菜籽后原料供应有望改善 [5]. - **展望**：豆粕和菜粕震荡 [5]. 3.1.3. 玉米/淀粉 - **观点**：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡；震荡偏弱 [6][7]. - **逻辑**：下游备货接近尾声，政策粮投放成交率下滑，盘面震荡偏弱；上游出货增加，春节后抛压或增加，但整体余粮压力有限；下游库存环增，后续上冲动能不足；进口谷物有性价比，陈麦拍卖补充饲用谷物供应 [7]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱；关注阶段性贸易商交货和补库情况 [7]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：供需宽松，现货回调；震荡偏弱 [8]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期大猪将出栏形成集中供应压力，中期供应过剩压力至少持续至2026年4月，长期2026年5月往后商品猪供应压力有望减轻，但养殖利润回升弱化减产动机；需求端屠宰量增加；库存生猪均重周环比下降；短期临近春节大猪降重去库，猪价走弱，春节后需求下降，供应仍过剩，长期2026年下半年出栏压力削弱 [8]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱；春节前有抛压风险，春节后消费淡季，上半年关注逢高做空套保机会，2026年下半年猪周期有望见底回暖 [8]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：多头情绪延续；震荡 [1][11]. - **逻辑**：商品情绪回暖，天胶跟随小幅走高，维持多头趋势，前期上涨和回落无基本面变化；近月运行区间上移，当前交易逻辑以宏观影响为主；基本面偏弱但预期尚可，可能提前上涨；海外供应充裕，需求端节前轮胎企业采购有支撑但未集中补库，累库是明显利空，资金炒作下盘面易涨难跌 [11]. - **展望**：基本面变量有限，资金关注度上升，盘面维持震荡 [11]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：高位震荡；震荡偏强 [12][13]. - **逻辑**：商品情绪回暖，BR盘面走高后震荡；中期核心逻辑是对丁二烯2026上半年供应偏紧预期的交易；原料端丁二烯价格上行，市场可流通货源有限，看涨情绪浓厚，下游刚需买盘跟进 [13]. - **展望**：丁二烯供需格局改善确定，但短期需调整，中期维持震荡偏强 [13]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：节前窄幅波动，驱动不强；震荡偏强 [13]. - **逻辑**：供给端新棉加工公检收尾，需求端临近春节下游放假，节后需求可期待，库存端商业库存累积但增速下降；宏观影响减弱，春节前棉价区间震荡，节后下游季节性转旺棉价可能走强，中长期2026年棉价预计偏强 [13][14]. - **展望**：震荡偏强；中长期震荡偏强，短期等待新增驱动，建议回调逢低多配 [13][14][15]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价小幅反弹；震荡偏弱 [15]. - **逻辑**：中长期糖价底部震荡，25/26榨季全球糖市预计供应过剩，主产国均预计增产，供应量增加使内外糖价承压 [15]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱；维持反弹空思路 [15]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：弱供需叠加低估值，纸浆震荡为主；震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：下游产出量下滑，纸浆需求降低，阔叶浆转弱，针叶浆受需求边际转弱影响小；产业利多是针阔叶浆美金价上涨，进口成本提高价格底部；利空因素包括需求进入淡季、现货流动性充裕、节前难备货、阔叶现货价格松动；资金面空方主动；预计走势震荡 [16]. - **展望**：震荡；需求季节性转弱和针叶浆流动性充裕是核心利空，但下行空间不大 [16]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：现货稳定，盘面低位震荡；震荡偏弱 [17][18]. - **逻辑**：市场交投少，纸价暂稳，纸企报盘多数稳定，经销商稳价出货；供应端产能大，货源充裕，纸厂挺价但传导有阻力；消费端出版提货结束，市场成交转社会单，下游采买积极性不高；节前无明确上下驱动，盘面反弹到4200 - 4300元/吨有套保压力 [18]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱；节前交投转弱，盘面区间偏弱震荡 [18]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：情绪转好，原木偏强；震荡偏强 [19]. - **逻辑**：盘面高位震荡，大商所暂停部分交割边库车板交割业务；基本面好转，外盘下期报价预期提升，1月新西兰发运中国船数下降，主流港口到货减少，岚山现货偏强，部分贸易商封库，现货流动性收紧；交割面重庆国产材交割趋严；技术面主力合约突破60日均线 [19]. - **展望**：震荡偏强；市场利空消化，基本面边际转好 [19]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis content provided in the text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **特色指数**：综合指数2421.45，涨幅 + 1.99%；商品20指数2772.98，涨幅 + 2.43%；工业品指数2322.73，涨幅 + 1.42% [181]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：2026 - 02 - 04指数为933.25，今日涨跌幅 + 0.02%，近5日涨跌幅 - 1.94%，近1月涨跌幅 - 1.33%，年初至今涨跌幅 + 0.02% [183].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the Chinese futures market in January 2026, including key events, price changes, initial margin, trading volume, and turnover. It also presents detailed data on different types of futures, such as financial futures, metal futures, energy & chemicals futures, agricultural products futures, and indices futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Overview - **Key Events**: In January 2026, there were significant geopolitical events, including the US's strike against Venezuela, potential actions against Iran, and tariff disputes between the US and Europe. Domestically, China had high - level meetings with Canada and the UK, renewing currency swap agreements and achieving positive outcomes. The US President nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair, and the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% - 3.75% [9][12][13]. - **Financial Futures**: In January 2026, equity index futures rose, with IC increasing by 13.6% and IM by 11.1%. CGB futures also rose, with TL increasing by 0.5% and TS decreasing by 0.1% [19]. - **Commodity Futures**: Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver (63.6%), tin (26.7%), and lithium carbonate (21.9%), while the top three losers were SCFIS(Europe) (-31.9%), poly - silicon (-18.6%), and sodium hydroxide (-11.9%) [23]. - **Initial Margin**: In January 2026, the initial margin of different futures sectors increased. Energy & Chemicals increased by 30.1%, Indices by 1.3%, Metal by 31.4%, Agricultural Products by 8.4%, Equity Index by 31.2%, and Interest Rates by 15.6% [40]. - **Trading Volume and Turnover**: In January, the trading volume of the Chinese futures market reached 723.14 million lots, with a year - on - year growth of 57.8%. The turnover reached 997,529.92 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 104.6% [45][51]. 3.2 Financial Futures - **Equity Index Futures**: In January 2026, SSE 50 (IH) increased by 1.6%, CSI 300 (IF) by 2.4%, CSI 500 (IC) by 13.6%, and CSI 1000 (IM) by 11.1%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also increased to varying degrees [61]. - **Interest Rates Futures**: The 2 - Year CGB (TS) decreased by 0.1%, the 5 - Year CGB (TF) increased by 0.1%, the 10 - Year CGB (T) increased by 0.4%, and the 30 - Year CGB (TL) increased by 0.5%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed accordingly [65]. 3.3 Metal Futures - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold increased by 18.8%, silver by 63.6%, palladium by 9.1%, and platinum by 19.6%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also had different changes [70]. - **Nonferrous Metals Futures**: Copper(BC) increased by 4.6%, copper by 5.5%, aluminum by 7.1%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of non - ferrous metals futures also changed [75]. - **Ferrous Metals Futures**: Iron ore changed by 0.3%, steel rebar by 0.2%, hot - rolled coil by 0.6%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of ferrous metals futures also changed [81]. - **Novel Materials Futures**: Lithium carbonate increased by 21.9%, silicon metal changed by - 0.1%, and poly - silicon decreased by 18.6%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [85]. 3.4 Energy & Chemicals - **Oil & Gas Futures**: Crude oil increased by 8.9%, fuel oil by 15.2%, LSFO by 11.3%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [91]. - **Olefins Futures**: Propylene increased by 6.6%, LLDPE by 8.4%, PP by 7.5%, and polyvinyl chloride by 5.4%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [95]. - **Aromatics Futures**: Benzene increased by 12.8%, ethenylbenzene by 13.6%, paraxylene by 0.3%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [99]. - **Organics Futures**: Methanol increased by 4.7%, ethylene glycol by 2.9%, and urea by 2.3%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [103]. - **Inorganics Futures**: Soda ash changed by - 0.4%, sodium hydroxide decreased by 11.9%, and glass decreased by 2.9%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [108]. - **Coals Futures**: Coking coal increased by 3.6%, and coke increased by 1.7%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [111]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Oil Crops Futures**: No.1 soybean increased by 3.3%, No.2 soybean by 2.7%, soybean oil by 5.3%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [117]. - **Grains Futures**: Corn increased by 2.0%, and corn starch by 0.2%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [122]. - **Rubber & Woods Futures**: Woodpulp decreased by 4.2%, offset paper by - 0.7%, TSR 20 by 4.6%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [126]. - **Animals Futures**: Live hog decreased by 4.9%, and egg increased by 1.7%. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [131]. - **Economic Crops Futures**: Cotton changed by 0.6%, cotton yarn by - 0.4%, peanut kernel by 0.9%, etc. The open interest and initial margin of these futures also changed [135]. 3.6 Indices Futures - **SCFIS(Europe)**: SCFIS(Europe) decreased by 31.9%. The open interest increased by 11.2%, and the initial margin increased by 1.3% [144].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance of "supporting rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction" may face difficulties in implementation. The US economy and the Fed's decision - making mechanism create resistance to significant policy shifts. Investors should also watch the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market continues to be driven by positive policy expectations. In the first quarter, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve an economic "good start" in the "15th Five - Year Plan". In January, both fiscal and monetary policies were front - loaded, and the manufacturing PMI showed economic stability. Strong exports also contribute to economic goals [9]. - Asset views: At the level of major asset classes, structural opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy environment, loose liquidity, and inflation expectations support the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - term opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector is highly volatile, and short - term caution is advised. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after corrections. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil is highly uncertain, so it's better to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Fluctuations 3.1.1 Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - Index futures: CSI 300 futures closed at 4653 with a daily increase of 1.25%, SSE 50 futures at 3033 with a daily increase of 0.8%, CSI 500 futures at 8282 with a daily increase of 3.71%, and CSI 1000 futures at 8183 with a daily increase of 2.97% on February 3, 2026 [2]. - Treasury bonds: 2 - year treasury bond futures were at 102.414 with a daily increase of 0.03%, 5 - year at 105.905 with a daily increase of 0.04%, 10 - year at 108.26 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and 30 - year at 111.96 with a daily decrease of 0.1% [2]. 3.1.2 Foreign Exchange and Interest Rates - Foreign exchange: The US dollar index was at 97.6129 with a daily increase of 0.51%, and the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9453, down 115 pips [2]. - Interest rates: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4906%, down 10.2 bp; the 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.82%, up 0.88 bp; the 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.29%, up 3 bp [2]. 3.1.3 Industry Indexes - On February 3, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, machinery, and media had relatively large daily increases, while the banking industry had a daily decline of 0.81% [3]. 3.1.4 Domestic Commodities - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil was at 453.19, fuel oil had a daily increase of 9.29%, etc. [4]. - Non - ferrous metals: Stainless steel had a daily increase of 3.4%, etc. [4]. - Black building materials: Rebar had a daily decrease of 0.29%, etc. [4]. - Agricultural products: Soybean had a daily increase of 0.1%, etc. [4]. 3.1.5 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 62.33 with a daily decrease of 4.42%, ICE Brent crude was at 66.31 with a daily decrease of 4.34% on February 2, 2026 [6]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold was at 4680.9 with a daily decrease of 1.35%, COMEX silver was at 79.265 with a daily increase of 0.93% [6]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME copper was at 12900 with a daily decrease of 1.96%, etc. [6]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans were at 1060 with a daily decrease of 0.4%, etc. [6]. 3.2 Sector Analysis and Short - Term Judgments 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the easing of liquidity panic and the rotation to technology stocks [11]. - Stock index options are expected to be volatile as sentiment stabilizes and implied volatility declines [11]. - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the long - end showing weakness [11]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold and silver are expected to be volatile as geopolitical tensions ease and the "Warsh trade" suppresses liquidity expectations [11]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - The container shipping route to Europe is expected to be volatile due to pressure on spot freight rates and pre - holiday price - cutting by shipping companies [11]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile due to factors like the off - season, weak market sentiment, and limited fundamental changes [11]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. are expected to rise in a volatile manner as market sentiment recovers, while lead is expected to decline in a volatile manner [11]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals Sector - Most varieties such as crude oil, LPG, and asphalt are expected to be volatile due to factors like supply pressure, geopolitical influence, and weakening demand. Styrene is expected to rise in a volatile manner [13]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Some varieties like natural rubber, cotton, and synthetic rubber are expected to be volatile or rise in a volatile manner, while others like corn/starch, sugar, and pork are expected to decline in a volatile manner [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation continues to disrupt oil prices, with the geopolitical premium of crude oil fluctuating due to factors related to Russia and Iran. The market should focus on the progress of US - Iran negotiations and India's purchase of Russian oil [2][8]. - Most energy - chemical products have phased support at the expectation level. For example, the cost of asphalt is expected to increase during the reconstruction of heavy - quality raw materials, and pure benzene and styrene are supported by the expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [3]. - The overall outlook for the energy - chemical sector is to treat it with a volatile mindset, with the movement of US - Iran relations supporting crude oil prices [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 11.08 million barrels in the week ending January 30. Geopolitical tensions, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and the approach of Iranian armed vessels to a US - flagged oil tanker, have led to an increase in geopolitical concerns. The US reducing tariffs on India in exchange for India stopping the purchase of Russian oil poses a threat to Russian oil supply in the later period. The outlook is volatile [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. The asphalt futures price is affected by the weakening of crude oil and the expected increase in the supply of distal raw materials due to the partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high. The current asphalt futures price is over - valued compared with other products. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As the US - Iran negotiations progress, the fuel oil futures price shows a weak - volatile trend. Geopolitical cooling expectations have driven down the fuel oil futures price. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The situation in Iran also has an impact on fuel oil exports and power - generation demand. The outlook is volatile, and the long - term growth of Venezuelan oil production will put pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the weak - volatile trend of crude oil. It is affected by natural gas price fluctuations, and although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by other fuels, its current valuation is low. The outlook is volatile, and it will follow the movement of crude oil [12]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: The price stops falling and stabilizes, and the negotiation atmosphere warms up. PX will have a short - term volatile adjustment. After the sharp decline in international oil prices, the impact of the cost side weakens. The fundamentals of PX have limited changes, and factors such as short - covering and the approach of the maintenance season support PX. The outlook is that the short - term price will fluctuate under the guidance of sentiment [14]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The price fluctuates at a low level, and attention should be paid to the commodity sentiment. After the sharp decline in upstream costs, the decline has slowed down. PTA mainly follows the movement of upstream costs. The spot basis has slightly recovered, and the polyester production reduction has increased, leading to an expected inventory accumulation in the near - term. The outlook is that it will maintain a volatile adjustment in the short term [14]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Although the current situation is weak, there is still an expectation of improvement, and it shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. Recent market changes include a sharp decline in international oil prices, some replenishment demand from downstream before the Spring Festival, and the widening price difference between styrene and pure benzene. The high - inventory situation may limit the increase, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the spring maintenance period [14][16]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Seasonal inventory accumulation may start, but the profit is not easy to compress. The price of styrene shows a volatile and upward - biased trend. The price is affected by the stabilization of crude oil prices and the expected weakening of supply - demand. However, due to export support, the height of seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to be reduced, and the profit compression is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile and upward - biased, with inventory reduction expected to resume in March [18]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The near - term arrival volume is relatively large, and the price is under pressure. Due to the large near - term arrival volume, inventory has been accumulating. Although there is an expectation of a decrease in arrival volume from mid - February, and the polyester demand support is insufficient, the price is expected to remain weak in the short term. The outlook is that the price will maintain a range - bound adjustment [20][21]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Downstream factories are on holiday and shut down, and the demand is weak. The short - fiber price follows the movement of upstream polyester raw materials. As the market approaches the Spring Festival, downstream demand is weak, and the short - fiber price maintains a weak - volatile trend. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream, and the support for processing fees will increase [24][25]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations. Upstream polyester raw materials fluctuate, and polyester bottle chips follow the upstream adjustment. The trading atmosphere has declined slightly, and the market is in a situation of having prices but no transactions. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees will increase [26]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: Overseas disturbances have eased, and some Iranian devices have restarted. Methanol is stable with a downward - biased trend. The spot price in Taicang has increased slightly, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The easing of the US - Iran situation and the restart of Iranian devices have increased the expected import volume, putting downward pressure on the futures price. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and although the Iranian situation has eased, there is still uncertainty [28]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: New orders are difficult to follow up, and urea shows a volatile adjustment. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment is not active, and the price is in a stalemate. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing performance and production enterprise order digestion [29]. 3.1.14 LLDPE - **View**: The upstream production has increased slightly, and the price has fallen back and then fluctuated. The decline in oil prices, the weakening of the overall commodity sentiment, the limited follow - up of spot prices after the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the plastic price. However, there is still an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [32]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: Some refinery maintenance has resumed, and PP has fallen back and then fluctuated. Similar to LLDPE, factors such as the decline in oil prices, the weakening of the commodity market sentiment, the profit repair of various production methods, and the weak demand in the off - season have led to the decline of the PP price. There is also an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [33]. 3.1.16 PL - **View**: It follows the commodity sentiment and fluctuates. The PDH maintenance still provides some support. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream rigid demand has recovered. The short - term powder profit fluctuates slightly, and the demand support in the off - season is limited. The outlook is that it will be volatile in the short term [34]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: There are strong expectations but low valuations, and the pre - holiday rebound should be cautious. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the commodity market sentiment. The "rush for exports" of PVC supports the demand, and inventory has been reduced. However, the fundamental pressure has not been reversed, and the price may rise first and then fall, showing an overall volatile trend [35]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The upstream losses have increased, and it is advisable to wait and see. Geopolitical disturbances may affect the market sentiment. The decline in the price of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the losses of chlor - alkali enterprises. Attention should be paid to whether the upstream will reduce production to relieve the oversupply. The outlook is that it will be volatile, and the upstream production reduction risk has increased [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific and complete content for each variety is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, 20 - commodity index, and industrial product index on February 3, 2026, are 2374.28 (- 1.93%), 2707.14 (- 2.40%), and 2290.30 (- 0.97%) respectively [284]. - **Energy Index**: On February 3, 2026, the energy index was 1116.03, with a daily decline of 3.91%, a 5 - day decline of 4.36%, a 1 - month increase of 2.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 2.71% [286].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-04 恐慌情绪缓和，新能源金属止跌回升 新能源观点：恐慌情绪缓和，新能源⾦属⽌跌回升 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，恐慌情绪缓 和，碳酸锂和多晶硅大幅上涨；中期来看，政策预期反复，新能源金 属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格 重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求预期也在不断拔 高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价格重心。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号F03108000 投资咨询号Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号F03141853 投资咨询号Z0022534 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅 ...