Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - On December 31, platinum and palladium prices continued to decline significantly. The closing price of the main platinum contract on GFEX was 589.85 yuan/gram, a 13% drop, and the closing price of the main palladium contract was 447.45 yuan/gram, also a 13% drop. The approaching New Year's holiday led to weak market sentiment and capital outflows, causing the sharp decline [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of platinum are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. The supply - demand situation of palladium shows that although it is loose in the long - term, the short - term spot shortage and favorable macro - environment suggest that the palladium price will also fluctuate with an upward trend. However, due to the sharp price fluctuations in the short - term and the approaching holiday, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main platinum contract on GFEX closed at 589.85 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: After the price correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 31, the domestic closing time of the main platinum contract on GFEX had a premium of 35.16 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included), still higher than the import cost, so there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity and the price difference is expected to converge in the future. But due to issues like hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. In terms of supply, South Africa, the major producer of platinum - group metals, still faces risks of power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further increase the long - term price elasticity [2]. - **Outlook**: The price of platinum is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [2]. Palladium - **Price Movement**: On December 31, the main palladium contract on GFEX closed at 447.45 yuan/gram, down 13% [1]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary supply shortage in other regions. In terms of demand, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, the short - term spot shortage makes the price firm, and the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate - cut cycle provides some support for the palladium price [3]. - **Outlook**: The price of palladium is expected to fluctuate with an upward trend. It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term due to sharp price fluctuations and the approaching holiday. The long - short positions between domestic and overseas markets are recommended to be held or increased, and the long - platinum and short - palladium positions can be held or temporarily liquidated for profit [3]. Commodity Index (December 30, 2025) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial product index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 30, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2675.54. The daily increase was - 0.03%, the increase in the past 5 days was + 1.47%, the increase in the past month was + 6.49%, and the increase from the beginning of the year to the present was + 15.91% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy tone of large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in in 2026 is positive. The steel market is in the off - season with inventory reduction, and the fundamentals have limited contradictions. The iron ore has high inventory and potential storage fee pressure, and the coke and coal markets are affected by factors such as production resumption expectations and supply - demand changes. The glass and soda ash markets are facing supply - demand imbalances [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: The iron water output is basically stable, the port inventory is continuously accumulating, and the upstream - downstream game is strong. The short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. The spot price is weak, and the port trading volume has increased [2][9]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. The steel mills' inventory is high, and the restocking has slowed down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut of leading steel enterprises in East China [2][11]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost of coke has shown signs of stabilization. After the four - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures price is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the downstream winter storage replenishment starts, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten [2][13]. - Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2][13]. 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: With the expected new supply in Inner Mongolia, the supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is expected to be further loosened. The cost still supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [3][18]. - Ferrosilicon: Low supply and low inventory support the price of ferrosilicon, but the price cut of coke restricts its upward space. The demand has not increased significantly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][19]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high, and the supply - demand is currently in excess. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14]. - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in excess. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply - excess pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline [3][17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [8]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures on December 31, 2025, and believes that better investment opportunities may come after the holiday. It also provides corresponding operation suggestions for different derivatives based on market trends and signals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Suggestions for Different Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and recovered, closing flat at the end of the session with basically the same trading volume and continued cooling market sentiment. There are three signals: the daily high has decreased; only one hot - spot sector can be supported; new hot - spots are emerging. Incremental funds have returned to rationality, and it is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Retain long positions, wait for the opportunity to increase positions after New Year's Day, and temporarily use high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, with large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The recommended operation is "Dividend ETF + IC long positions" [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market opened lower and fluctuated higher. The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly, but the increase was limited, and the trading volume remained at a relatively low level. The intraday implied volatility of options fluctuated sharply and showed a strong overall trend. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management may be more stable [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to hold sold options to increase returns, and can also supplement with a small amount of bought put options for protection and defense. The recommended operation is "covered call" [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.17%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of spot bonds showed differentiated trends. The central bank's net injection of funds was 25.32 billion yuan, but the year - end capital market tightened, which affected the bond market. However, considering the central bank's care for the capital market, the probability of continued tight capital after the New Year is low [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For trend strategies, expect oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to the widening of the basis. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The economic calendar shows the time, region, indicators, previous values, forecast values, and unpublished release values of economic data from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including data from the United States, China, and Europe [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" will be implemented on January 1, 2026, aiming to implement the "Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" [11]. - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: The Central Rural Work Conference from December 29th to 30th analyzed the situation and challenges of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and deployed work for 2026 [12]. - **TMT**: The Ministry of Education plans to issue relevant policy documents next year to promote the application of artificial intelligence in education and build an education system for the future [12]. - **Real Estate**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling housing will have different value - added tax policies depending on the length of housing ownership [13]. - **Consumption**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy in 2026, with clear funding channels and cost - sharing ratios [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but does not provide specific data content [15][19][31].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌互现，贵金属跌幅居前 ——中信期货晨报20251231 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03121254 投资咨询号Z0022985 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 国内主要商品涨跌幅 | | | 热门行业涨跌幅 | | | | | | 硅铁 | 5750 | 1.30% | 1.38% | 6.68% -8.09% | 2.42% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 行业 | 现价 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | 锰硅 | 5942 | 1.36% | 1.75% | 5.80% -2.43% | 2.84% | | | 石油石化 | 3429 2.67% | 4.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to pre - holiday capital prudence, base metals will experience a rise followed by a fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin prices stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist. There are expectations of tightening supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices will continue to operate at high levels. The macro - environment shows US economic resilience and the Fed's easing policies. On the supply side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and there are expectations of reduced refined copper production. On the demand side, it is in a weak season with inventory accumulation. The risk of LME copper squeezing has weakened. In the future, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [7] - **Alumina**: Cost support is not effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. On the supply side, there is insufficient real - world contraction and strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak. From the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion, there is pressure on the price. The price may fluctuate more as it enters a low - valuation range. It is expected to remain in a volatile state [7] - **Aluminum**: Capital sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas supply is expected to tighten. On the demand side, high prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support continues, and the price will oscillate at high levels. Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. On the supply side, there are risks of production reduction. On the demand side, it may weaken marginally. In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to oscillate strongly [11] - **Zinc**: Domestic and overseas inventory trends are divergent, and zinc prices will oscillate at high levels. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and production may decline. On the demand side, it is in the off - season with limited new orders. In the short term, prices may oscillate at high levels, and in the long term, there may be a downward trend [12][13] - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals, and supply - demand may weaken. On the supply side, production may increase as smelters resume production. On the demand side, battery enterprise operating rates are declining, and demand is weakening marginally. Lead prices are expected to remain in a volatile state [14][15] - **Nickel**: Expectations of Indonesian policies cause disruptions, and nickel prices have risen significantly. On the supply side, there is still pressure, but Indonesia's planned reduction of nickel ore production in 2026 may change the situation. On the demand side, it is in the traditional off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [15][19] - **Stainless Steel**: Rising nickel prices drive up the stainless - steel market. Cost support exists, and production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [20][22] - **Tin**: Pre - holiday long - position reduction causes a correction in tin prices. On the supply side, there are risks and production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow. Tin prices are expected to oscillate strongly [22][23] 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index was 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index was 2271.47, up 0.56%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2675.54, with a daily decline of 0.03%, a 5 - day increase of 1.47%, a 1 - month increase of 6.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.91% [147][149]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-31 美联储分歧延续，⾦银回调后整理 重点资讯： 1）俄罗斯周一指控乌克兰试图袭击总统普京位于俄罗斯北部的官 邸，但未提供任何证据。基辅方面驳斥这一说法毫无根据，称其意在 破坏和平谈判。 2）中国国家发展改革委、财政部周二公布2026年大规模设备更新、 消费品以旧换新（"两新"）政策，明确在继续实施汽车、家电等消 费品补贴的同时调整品类和补贴力度，并将在全国范围内执行统一的 补贴标准，打击骗补套补等违法行为。 3）美国总统特朗普周一表示，美国已"打击"了委内瑞拉境内一个 用于装载毒品船只的区域，这将是自美国对马杜罗政府展开施压行动 以来，首次已知在委内瑞拉境内实施的行动。 4）美东时间30日周二，美联储公布12月9日至10日的货币政策会议纪 要，其中写道，在讨论货币政策前景时，与会者对美联储货币政策委 员会FOMC的政策立场是否具有限制性表达了不同的看法。 价格逻辑： 黄金：回撤性质偏向技术性整理而非趋势反转。最新公布的12月FOMC 会议纪要显示，政策分歧仍存但方向未改：多数委员认为在通胀回落 与劳动力市场边际走弱 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/12/31 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 【 20251227 】 Lithium Carbonate, Aluminium Oxide, Copper 碳酸锂、氧化铝、铜 【 20251226 】 Platinum, Silver, Palladium 铂、白银、钯 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalserv ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different products having different price trends and influencing factors [1][7]. - The oil market is affected by factors such as international crude oil prices, South American soybean production expectations, and Malaysian palm oil production and exports, with short - term rebounds and medium - term oscillations [1][7]. - The protein meal market is under inventory pressure, with double meal showing narrow - range oscillations [8]. - The corn and starch market is in a state of tight balance, with prices oscillating within a range [10][11]. - The pig market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern, with short - term oscillations and long - term supply pressure expected to gradually ease [12]. - The natural rubber market has bullish sentiment, with rubber prices rebounding from low levels, and short - term bullishness is expected [14]. - The synthetic rubber market has a relatively certain improvement in the supply - demand pattern, with short - term upward pressure and medium - term oscillatory strength [16]. - The cotton market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, with a bullish view in the short term [16]. - The sugar market is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, with a downward driving force for sugar prices [18]. - The pulp market is expected to be oscillatory and strong, with bullish factors lifting the bottom and bearish factors mainly in the long - term price transmission [19]. - The double - gum paper market is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the short term, with paper mills' price increases boosting market sentiment [20][21]. - The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with narrow - range oscillations and marginal improvement in fundamentals [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oilseeds - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is on an upward trend, and vegetable oils continue to rebound. Domestic oil trends are oscillatory and strong, with palm oil showing a more obvious upward trend [1][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, crude oil prices are rising, increasing the attractiveness of palm oil as biodiesel. South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's soybean planting almost completed and Argentina's planting over half - done. The demand for US soybeans is uncertain. Domestically, soybean supply is relatively sufficient, and soybean oil inventory is slowly decreasing. Malaysian palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period with improved export expectations, and palm oil inventory is expected to gradually decrease. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and short - term price - holding sentiment among traders is strong, but global rapeseed production is high, and prices are difficult to rise in the long term [1][7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate [2][7]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Inventory pressure remains high, and double meal shows narrow - range oscillations [8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and South American soybean production prospects are optimistic. Domestically, domestic soybeans are being continuously auctioned, and downstream purchase sentiment has declined after replenishment. Soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, and downstream consumption is not booming. Imported soybean purchase volume has changed in different quarters, and there are concerns about the extension of the inspection period for Australian imports, making rapeseed meal perform stronger than soybean meal [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to oscillate [8]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between North China and Northeast China, and futures prices rise and then fall [10][11]. - **Logic**: As the delivery approaches, the futures market follows the logic of price convergence with the spot market. In the upstream, snow in Northeast China has affected the grain supply rhythm, and in North China, the improvement of local corn quality has diverted some demand for Northeast corn. In the downstream, after continuous replenishment, downstream enterprises have established a certain safety inventory, and the market is in a state of tight balance [11]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain sales progress, and downstream profit conditions [12]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: At the end of the month, the supply volume decreases, and pig prices rebound [12]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens decreased in mid - December and rebounded in late December, with a decrease in supply at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure of commercial pigs is expected to ease after May 2026. Near the New Year's Day holiday, the demand for stocking has increased, but the pig weight is still high [12]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate. The near - term contracts are expected to operate weakly, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction [12]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Bullish sentiment remains, and rubber prices rebound from low levels [14]. - **Logic**: After a slight decline due to commodity adjustments, rubber prices rebounded. The short - term upward space may be further expanded if there is continuous position - increasing or strong bullish sentiment in the commodity market. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but there is a certain downward pressure. The demand side is weak after the rapid price increase [14]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals have limited variables, but market sentiment is strong, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market shows a strong oscillatory trend [16]. - **Logic**: The market's expectation of marginal improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is gradually becoming a consensus. The absolute price of the BR contract is relatively low. The butadiene market price was firm last week, and the downstream synthetic rubber market is strong, driving the butadiene market atmosphere [16]. - **Outlook**: The improvement in the butadiene supply - demand pattern is relatively certain, but there is short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the medium term [16]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues [16]. - **Logic**: Recently, Zhengzhou cotton has risen strongly. Fundamentally, the new cotton listing progress is fast from September to December, but the inventory accumulation rate is lower than expected, and the apparent demand has increased year - on - year. Policy - wise, there are plans to reduce cotton planting in Xinjiang next year, which boosts market sentiment. In the long term, the domestic cotton supply - demand may be in a tight balance, and the cotton price center is expected to rise [16]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong in the long term, and the strategy of buying on dips is maintained [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: There is a slight rebound, but prices are still under pressure [18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, with Brazil, Thailand, and India all increasing production. In the domestic new crushing season, production is also increasing, and the spot pressure is increasing. The Zhengzhou sugar main contract has rebounded technically but is still in a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the medium - to - long term, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market is dull, and futures prices oscillate repeatedly [19]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded yesterday, and the spot market is calm. The market is affected by the financial market atmosphere. Fundamentally, there are bullish factors such as the increase in broad - leaf pulp prices, the supply reduction expectation due to pulp mill shutdowns, and the high actual demand. There are also bearish factors such as difficulties in cost transmission for downstream paper products, seasonal decline in demand, and high hedging pressure on traders [19]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be oscillatory and strong. Bullish news raises the bottom, but the hedging pressure above remains [19]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is stable, and the market shows a strong trend [20]. - **Logic**: The double - gum paper market is operating stably, with limited production changes in the industry. The spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market sentiment is boosted by paper mills' price increases. The market is under the dual pressure of high costs and weak demand, but paper mills have a strong demand for price increases [20]. - **Outlook**: Paper mills' price increases boost market sentiment, and the paper price is expected to bottom out and be oscillatory and strong in the short term [21]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Logic**: The log market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with stable trading. The external market provides support for the futures price. In the short term, there is a small space for processing plants to replenish inventory, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the first quarter. In the medium term, the 03 contract has certain trading points [22]. - **Outlook**: Fundamentals are improving marginally, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the holiday, funds are cautious, and new energy metals are experiencing wide - range fluctuations. The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate remains tight, and the risk of supply disruptions has increased. The supply - demand of industrial silicon and polysilicon is loosening, but the establishment of a polysilicon storage platform has raised the expectation of supply contraction. In the short - to - medium term, funds are taking profits before the holiday, causing wide - range fluctuations in new energy metals like lithium carbonate. However, concerns about supply disruptions still support prices. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is increasing, but demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - examined, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand drivers are weak, and the silicon price fluctuates with market sentiment. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation" [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 30, the spot prices of oxygen - passivated 553 and 421 in East China were 9,250 yuan/ton and 9,650 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable. The latest domestic inventory was 456,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. As of November 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 402,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,888 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 22GW, a month - on - month increase of 75% and a year - on - year decrease of 12% [7] - **Main Logic**: The supply in the north is subject to potential changes, and the demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak. Although the industry inventory has decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure has been alleviated to some extent, but the downstream demand has also weakened, and the industrial silicon will still accumulate inventory in December and early next year, with weak fundamentals. The price is expected to oscillate due to the current coal price and market sentiment [7][8] 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectations vs. weak reality, and the polysilicon price continues to have high volatility. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [8] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 30, the transaction price range of N - type re - feed material was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. In November, the export volume of polysilicon was about 3,230 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. A polysilicon platform company was registered, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures [8] - **Main Logic**: The establishment of the polysilicon platform company has raised the expectation of polysilicon storage, but the willingness to reduce positions at the end of the year is strong, resulting in high price volatility. The production in the southwest has decreased during the dry season, and in the long - term, the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. The weak reality of the fundamentals remains unchanged, but the price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom. The price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term [9][10] 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment has eased, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating upwards. The medium - term outlook is "oscillation with an upward bias" [11][12] - **Information Analysis**: On December 30, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% compared to the previous day. The total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 252 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1,300 lots. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the equipment update and trade - in policy, which includes support for automobile scrap and replacement [11] - **Main Logic**: The current demand for lithium carbonate has weakened marginally, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. The market sentiment has a significant impact on the price. The maintenance of several leading cathode material factories in January will lead to weaker demand, but the raw material inventory of the cathode link has decreased significantly. Overall, the price is expected to be oscillatory with an upward bias in the short term, and it is advisable to buy on dips [12] 3.2行情监测 - The specific content of this section in the text only lists the names of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, without specific monitoring information, so no summary can be made 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 30, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2,343.82 (+0.17%), 2,683.42 (-0.17%), and 2,271.47 (+0.56%) respectively. The new energy commodity index was 510.47, with a daily increase of 2.35%, a decrease of 1.02% in the past 5 days, an increase of 12.84% in the past month, and an increase of 23.78% since the beginning of the year [54][56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum, Palladium, Lead, Zinc: Potential [4] - Natural Gas (TFU - HH): On hold [4] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's monetary policy will remain accommodative in 2026, with the US dollar index expected to range between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, ranging from 6.8 - 7.2 [6] - For some commodities, due to factors such as price differences, inventory changes, and import - export windows, specific cross - market arbitrage strategies are recommended, including holding or adding positions for some, and observing for others [4][5] Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread trended higher. This week, with a neutral valuation of the price difference, short - term observation is recommended [12] - **Silver**: Last week, the price fluctuated sharply, and the domestic - foreign price difference rose and then fell. This week, due to short - term sentiment - driven and increased risk of irrational fluctuations, short - term observation is recommended [18] - **Platinum**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference was still high, much higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [24] - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price difference narrowed, but the domestic premium was still higher than the import cost. This week, continue to hold or add long NYMEX, short GFEX positions [31] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventory accumulated in the off - season, and the import window was in loss. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [38] - **Aluminum**: Last week, domestic aluminum ingots started to accumulate, and LME aluminum inventory continued to decline. The short - term price ratio oscillated. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [43] - **Zinc**: Last week, early - locked zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and domestic inventory has room to decline while LME inventory is rising. This week, roll in short LME zinc, long SHFE zinc [52] - **Lead**: Last week, domestic lead inventory may accumulate, LME lead inventory decreased, and the import window opened. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [53] - **Nickel**: Last week, the import window opened, the balance ratio dropped, and inventories were relatively high. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [58] - **Tin**: Last week, the domestic - foreign price ratio rebounded, the import window was closed, and the import loss was 14,018 yuan/ton. This week, cross - market arbitrage is on hold [65] Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the price difference oscillated narrowly with no obvious driver. This week, observation is recommended [70] Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price difference oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot, falling freight, and uncertain Russian supply, observation is recommended [74] Agriculturals - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit oscillated at the bottom, and US soybeans declined weakly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [80] - **Sugar**: Last week, both domestic and foreign markets rebounded from low levels, and the price difference oscillated narrowly. This week, short - term observation is recommended [83] - **Natural Gas (20 - rubber)**: Last week, the price difference was in a no - arbitrage state, and supply may increase without a demand surge. This week, observation is recommended [88] Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the market digested the Fed's hawkish stance, and the price difference may rise. This week, arbitrage is on hold [94] - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the EFS oscillated. This week, due to stable Middle - East crude oil spot and US production resilience, observation is recommended [99] - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the price difference oscillated. This week, with high US refinery operation and stable US production, the price difference driver is limited, so observation is recommended [105] - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price difference oscillated and rebounded weakly. This week, due to large holiday fluctuations, temporary exit for observation is recommended. After the holiday, pay attention to the opportunity of price difference narrowing [110]