Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives a medium - term outlook for each variety, including "Oscillation", "Oscillation with an upward bias", etc. 2. Core View The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the macro - environment is warm with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December, overseas interest - rate cut expectations, and positive signals from the China - US presidential call. However, as the off - season deepens, the fundamentals have limited highlights, and the rebound momentum of the futures market weakens. Iron ore prices are strong due to expected restocking demand, and coking coal fundamentals are not significantly weakened, with support for far - month contracts. Glass prices are suppressed by high inventory, and soda ash prices are restricted by oversupply despite cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and port inventory decreased slightly. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. The contradiction is not prominent, and prices are expected to run strongly [4][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased and demand was stable. After the price decline, the cost - performance ratio recovered, and the downside space is limited. It is expected to oscillate [4][10]. Carbon Element - **Coke**: After profit repair and environmental protection relaxation, supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand supported inventory depletion, but cost support weakened, and there are expectations of price cuts. The futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal [4][12]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic supply remained low, and fundamentals were not significantly weakened. There are restocking expectations for winter storage. Near - month contracts are affected by delivery, expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [4][13]. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support remains, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and price pressure is high. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [4][16][17]. - **Silicon Iron**: High costs support the price bottom, but supply - demand is loose, suppressing the upside. The futures market is expected to run at a low level [7][18]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [7][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is close to the cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][16]. 4. Market Data Steel - Spot market transactions were average. Steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm was high, and output increased slightly. Demand was resilient, and inventory continued to decline, but it was still higher than the same period last year [9]. Iron Ore - Port transactions decreased. Spot prices mostly rose. Off - season hot metal may decline seasonally, but there is short - term support, and restocking demand has not been released. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate strongly [9]. Scrap Steel - Arrivals increased this week, and EAF profits improved. Supply increased, demand was stable, and prices are expected to oscillate [10]. Coke - Futures followed coking coal to oscillate under pressure. Spot prices were stable. Supply increased slightly, demand decreased slightly, and inventory in coking enterprises increased slightly. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [12]. Coking Coal - Futures oscillated under pressure. Spot prices declined. Domestic supply recovery was slow, imports were high, demand weakened, and inventory in mines increased slightly. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate, and far - month contracts are expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Glass - Spot prices were stable. Supply may be disrupted, and mid - and downstream inventory was high. If there is no more cold - repair, prices will be suppressed; otherwise, prices will rise. It is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. Soda Ash - Spot prices declined. Supply was flat, demand was weak, and inventory decreased. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [14][16]. Manganese Silicon - Futures prices first rose and then fell. Spot prices were stable. Cost support was strong, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [16][17]. Silicon Iron - Futures prices oscillated. Spot prices were stable. High costs supported the price bottom, but supply - demand was loose, and prices are expected to run at a low level [18]. 5. Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased on November 25, 2025 [100]. - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index increased by 0.30% on November 25, 2025, with a 0.08% increase in the past 5 days, a - 1.93% decrease in the past month, and a - 5.92% decrease since the beginning of the year [101].

期货有限公司 Futures Company Limited 需求强劲格局未改, 情绪修复下锂价凹汁 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 风险提示 风险因素:供应端超预期复产;需求不及预期;政策变动 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | 白 帅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | 王雨欣 | | 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 | 投资咨询号:Z0022534 | 桂 伶 | | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 | 投资咨询号:Z0022750 | | 重要是示.. 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为关注、收到成阅读本报告内容而观相关人员为客户、市场用风险。投资需谨慎。 鱼走青明。除非另有说明，中信期货有限公司（X下简称"中信期货》拥有本报告的版权或其他相关知识产权。未经授权，不得发送或复制本报告任何内容。中信期货时于本报告所就的信息。观点以及数据的监狱 性、可靠性、时效 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Silver, Copper, Zinc: Potential [5] - Gold: On hold [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The valuation of the silver price difference fell to a neutral level, and the spot market for silver in London is tight, supporting the price difference. The COMEX and LME copper price spread may narrow. The pressure of squeezing zinc on the LME will ease. The DXY in Q4 might be in the range of 95 - 102. Gold and silver prices are in a shock adjustment period, and their internal and external price differences are gradually falling. The London silver squeeze risk has not been completely lifted, and the price of silver in the external market still has support [6][7][15]. 3. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold** - Last week, the gold price difference dropped from its peak, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the gold price continues the shock adjustment period, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets gradually falls. It is recommended to take profit on the strategy of shorting the price difference between domestic and foreign markets at high prices [15]. - **Silver** - Last week, the silver price difference fluctuated and then dropped, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA price difference fluctuated. This week, the risk of a silver squeeze in London has not been completely lifted, the price of silver in the external market still has support, the valuation of the price difference is neutral, and the strategy of shorting the price difference at high prices is maintained [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - Last week, the domestic copper inventory was depleted slowly. Considering that the copper import window remained in a loss, the cross - market strategy suggested a short - term wait - and - see approach. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [25]. - **Aluminum** - Last week, the domestic weekly aluminum ingot inventory first rose and then declined, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased. In the short term, the foreign - exchange ratio remained within a fluctuation range, and cross - market arbitrage is currently on hold [32]. - **Zinc** - Last week, the window for exporting Chinese zinc opened, domestic zinc inventories were depleting, and the LME planned to limit large open interest in near contracts, which is expected to alleviate the squeeze pressure on zinc. This week, it is recommended to go long on SHFE zinc and short on LME zinc [38][43]. - **Lead** - Last week, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, the smelter inventory remained low, the canceled warrants for LME lead increased again, and the destocking continued. This week, cross - market arbitrage for lead is temporarily on hold [44]. - **Nickel** - Last week, the nickel import window was closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences has significantly improved. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [51]. - **Tin** - Last week, the tin price ratio rebounded, the spot tin import window remained closed, the import loss was 16,328 yuan/ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread was not obvious. This week, cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [55]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore** - Last week, the iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers and experienced slight fluctuations. This week, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [61]. Energy - **Crude Oil** - Last week, the SC - Brent price spread edged higher. This week, due to the high volatility of freight rates and the uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see [65]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)** - Last week, the price gap continued to decline. The cold wave and the expectation of increased exports continued to push up the price of natural gas in the United States, while in November, the mild temperature and strong wind power output in Europe led to weak gas - power demand, and the increased LNG supply pressured the price. This week, it is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious about short - selling [100]. Agriculturals - **Soybean** - Last week, the import crushing margins of soybeans were bottom - oscillating. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, an improved margin is expected. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [71]. - **Sugar** - Last week, the import crushing margins of sugar edged higher, and it is expected that in the medium to long term, the Chinese market likely outperforms ICE. This week, it is recommended to take a short - term wait - and - see approach [75]. - **Natural Rubber** - Last week, there was little change, and the price spread remained in the non - arbitrage range. Globally, as the tapping season begins, there is an expectation of increased supply, but there is no improvement on the demand side, leading to weakness in prices. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [84]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper** - Last week, the price divergence between COMEX and LME copper was due to capital outflows to COMEX copper. Currently, with the Fed's decisions diverging and more governors' statements turning hawkish, there is uncertainty about the December rate - cut decision. Gold and silver prices are fluctuating, while COMEX copper continues to accumulate inventory and LME copper depletes inventory. This week, it is recommended to short COMEX copper and long LME copper [85]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS** - Last week, the Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS rebounded. This week, due to the oscillating spot discount of Middle - Eastern crude oil and the high volatility of freight rates, the short - term indication is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [90]. - **WTI - Brent** - Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. This week, with the U.S. refinery operating rate stabilizing and rebounding, low refined - oil inventories, and the expected stable shale - oil production under the background of oscillating oil prices, the price - spread driver is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [96].

| 11 中信期货 | | | 海外装置扰动,甲醇期价反弹 | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重丹丹 | | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012 669 | | ਸਿ | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | 름 | | 究员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0021454 | | 投资咨询亏:Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | | 1. 从基本面来看,甲醇整体供需格局偏弱:沿海甲醇库存长期累库下达到历史高位,截止11月19日,已有约143.93万吨, 相比去年同期偏 ...

海外两套装置重启,开工近六年同比最低 2025/11/25 | | 董丹丹 | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 证监许可【2012】669号 | | 份 | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号: Z0020561 | | | 4 | | | | | | | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | 杨黎 | | | 从业资格号:F03108012 | 从业资格号:F03107980 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | 从业资格号:F03141405 | | | 投资咨询号: Z0021454 | 投资咨询号: Z0021451 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | 投资咨询号:Z0021671 | | | | | | 扫描_凝响 状联更多预讲资料 | 最新数据: 苯乙烯国内非一体化利润 苯乙烯国内开工 3500 =2020 -- 2021 -- 2023 -- 2025 202 ...

1. 从基本面来看,甲醇整体供需格局偏弱:沿海甲醇库存长期累库下达到历史高位,截止11月19日,已有约143.93万吨, 相比去年同期偏高。高库存现实压制下,甲醇期价难有上行空间;内地甲醇供应端虽检修扰动多发,但下游烯烃总体偏弱 势,以刚需采购为主,缺乏主动囤货意愿,难以改善总体需求的疲软态势。截止11月21日,国产甲醇开工率位于88.75%的 高位。 | 11 中信期货 | | | 海外装置扰动,甲醇期价反弹 | | 2025/11/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重丹丹 | | 杨家明 | 杨晓宇 | 杨黎 | 投资咨询业务资格: | | 从业资格号:F03142141 | | 从业资格号:F3046931 | 从业资格号:F03086737 | 从业资格号:F03147405 | 证监许可 2012 669 | | ਸਿ | 投资咨询号:Z0021744 | 投资咨询号:Z0015448 | 投资咨询号:Z0020561 | 投资咨询号:Z0022768 | 름 | | 究员 | 陈子昂 | 尹伊君 | 李云旭 | | | | 从业资格号:F03 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is trading in a range between 4000 - 4200 dollars. In the short - term, precious metals will continue to trade in a range. As PCE and GDP data are released, the market will re - price the Fed's path and the dollar interest rate center, and directional fluctuations are expected to resume in the second half of the week. The price of London Gold should be monitored in the range of [3950, 4200], and London Silver in the range of [48, 53] [1][3] - The market's core contradiction revolves around the December interest - rate cut path. The Fed faces a "data vacuum period" before the interest - rate meeting, and the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut is fluctuating. The upper driving force for gold prices is limited, but the bottom - support factors are still solid, resulting in gold price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Multiple Fed officials, including Powell's allies Daly and Williams, support another interest - rate cut in December, which has rapidly increased the market's expectation of Fed easing [2] - The Trump administration is considering approving the sale of Nvidia's H200 AI chips to China due to the easing of bilateral relations [2] - On the evening of November 24, the heads of state of China and the United States had a phone call [2] Price Logic - Gold is in a volatile range with weak upward and downward driving forces. The core market contradiction is centered on the December interest - rate cut path. The Fed faces a "data vacuum period" before the interest - rate meeting, and internal differences have intensified, causing the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut to swing. The dollar is in high - level consolidation [3] - The upper driving force for gold prices is limited, but the bottom - support factors are solid, including the risk premium of geopolitical events, stable central - bank gold purchases, and the market's optimistic expectation of the medium - term interest - rate cut path. The intersection of long and short factors leads to gold price fluctuations [3] - In the short term, precious metals will maintain a range - bound pattern. After the release of PCE and GDP data, the market will re - price the Fed's path and the dollar interest - rate center, and directional fluctuations are expected to resume in the second half of the week [3] Index Information - On November 24, 2025, the commodity index was 2228.09, up 0.46%; the commodity 20 index was 2528.06, up 0.43%; the industrial products index was 2195.71, up 0.52%; the PPI commodity index was 1335.17, up 0.55% [41] - The precious metals index on November 24, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.59%, a 5 - day increase of 0.98%, a 1 - month increase of 0.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 48.96% [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current situation of new energy metals is that the exchange's position limit policy and the tight supply - demand in reality coexist, with lithium carbonate leading the trend of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's measures on lithium carbonate have cooled investors' optimistic sentiment, but in the long run, the supply of silicon may shrink, and the long - term supply - demand of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated [1]. - For industrial silicon, there is still over - supply pressure, and the silicon price will fluctuate. For polysilicon, due to the repeated policy expectations, the price will oscillate at a high level. For lithium carbonate, the trading sentiment has cooled, and the price will oscillate at a high level [2][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **View**: There is still over - supply pressure, and the silicon price will oscillate. The spot price has slightly decreased. The domestic inventory has decreased by 0.8% month - on - month, with market inventory increasing by 0.5% and factory inventory decreasing by 1.8%. As of October 2025, the monthly production increased by 7.5% month - on - month and decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to October decreased by 16.7% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative export from January to October decreased by 1.2% year - on - year. In October, the new photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month and decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. The organic silicon industry may enter a production - cut and price - support phase [6]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution in the organic silicon industry has affected market sentiment. The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, and the northwest supply will fluctuate slightly. The demand from polysilicon and organic silicon may decline, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The social inventory is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the progress of warehouse receipt re - registration [6]. - **Outlook**: If the organic silicon industry cuts production, the demand for industrial silicon will weaken, and the inventory pressure may increase. In the short term, the price will oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **View**: Due to the repeated policy expectations, the price will oscillate at a high level. The N - type re -投料's transaction price is stable, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, the export and import volumes have decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October has increased by 39.5% year - on - year [7]. - **Main Logic**: The supply will decrease in November due to the dry season, and the long - term supply may be restricted by anti - involution policies. The demand may weaken in November as the photovoltaic installation has declined since the second half of the year, and the downstream demand is showing signs of weakness. Overall, there is still pressure on supply and demand, but the price will likely maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy can boost the price, but due to the large inventory pressure, the price will show a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **View**: The trading sentiment has cooled, and the price will oscillate at a high level. On November 24, the closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.59%, the total position decreased by 20,819 lots, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 150 yuan/ton, the average price of spodumene concentrate decreased by 18 dollars/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 338 lots [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline from November to December. The supply is growing but faces ore shortages. The demand is currently good, and speculative demand may emerge when the price drops. The social inventory is decreasing, and the short - term balance depends on the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo. It is recommended to take a bullish approach and buy on price dips [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price will oscillate at a high level [11]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content provided for analysis. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 24, 2025, the comprehensive index, including the special index (Commodity Index, Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index, PPI Commodity Index) and the plate index (New Energy Commodity Index), showed different degrees of increase, with the New Energy Commodity Index having a daily decline of 0.35%, a 5 - day decline of 0.90%, a 1 - month increase of 4.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.66% [51][52].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-11-25 宏观面预期反复但稳定，基本金属震荡 整理 有⾊观点：宏观⾯预期反复但稳定，基本⾦属震荡整理 交易逻辑：美国此前未公布的数据陆续发布，9月非农新增就业高于市场 预期，一度压低12月美联储降息预期并推高美元指数，但周末前威廉姆斯 表态偏鸽派重新提振市场信心，12月美联储降息预期升温，整体来看，宏 观面整体延续预期反复但稳定。原料端延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传 导。终端表现分化，11月初汽车销售增速放缓，11-12月空调排产降幅扩 大，基本金属现实供需略偏弱，但预期偏紧。整体来看，中短期，供应扰 动继续支撑基本金属价格，但宏观预期反复及需求一般限制价格上行高 度，基本金属维持震荡整理，可继续关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储内部存在分歧，铜价⾼位盘整 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压 铝观点：库存延续去化，铝价窄幅震荡 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡 锌观点：出⼝窗⼝打开，锌价⾼ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each commodity: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] - Protein meals: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate [7] - Corn and starch: Expected to be oscillating, with a short - term upward trend [8][9] - Pigs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend [10] - Natural rubber: Expected to oscillate [11][12] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to oscillate, with a suggestion to short at high prices [13] - Cotton: Short - term 01 contract to oscillate, long - term to be weakly upward - oscillating [13] - Sugar: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend in the medium - long term [14] - Pulp: Expected to oscillate [15] - Offset paper: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] - Logs: Expected to be in a weakly oscillating trend at a low level [17][18] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It points out that different products are affected by different factors such as weather, policies, trade relations, and market sentiment. For example, corn prices are supported by factors like farmers' reluctance to sell, enterprises' replenishment demand, and transportation issues; while pig prices are affected by supply and demand imbalances in the short and medium - term, with a potential supply reduction in the long - term [1][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment is weak as the expected production of Malaysian palm oil in November is increasing month - on - month. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic factors include the repeated expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the potential increase in global oil supply. On the industrial side, the US soybean harvest is almost complete, South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly, and the expected arrival of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level. For palm oil, the production in November is expected to increase while exports are expected to decline. For rapeseed oil, the supply is expected to increase later [6] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a downward - oscillating trend [6] 3.2 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal has increased in position and price, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to shrink. - **Logic**: Internationally, La Nina is expected to occur, and there is a drought risk in parts of South America. The US soybean planting area is expected to expand in 2026, and the export is expected to decline. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, and there is an expectation of soybean reserves release. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years [7] - **Outlook**: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, and the price difference between them is expected to shrink [7] 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues due to positive factors. - **Logic**: Positive factors include farmers' reluctance to sell due to weather and transportation issues, the replenishment demand of feed - using enterprises, and the increase in transportation costs. In the short term, these positive factors will continue, but there may be a callback in the future [1][9] - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see as the positive factors have not been fully digested [9] 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Sows are reducing production, and the short - term price is weak while the long - term price is strong. - **Logic**: In the short and medium - term, the supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand is insufficient. In the long - term, the reduction of sows' production capacity is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating. The short - term price is weak, and the long - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [10] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The flood in the production area has triggered bullish sentiment, but the increase is limited. - **Logic**: The rebound is mainly due to concerns about floods in Thailand. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly recently. The upside space is limited without strong expected differences and macro - driving factors [11][12] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to continue to oscillate widely and with high elasticity, and there is no obvious trend [12] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market atmosphere has stabilized, and the price continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The price of the raw material butadiene has rebounded after falling, and the trading volume has increased. However, as the price rises, the enthusiasm of sellers to ship has increased, and some high - price transactions have been blocked [13] - **Outlook**: It is recommended to short at high prices before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene [13] 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price has rebounded, and the price difference between January and May contracts has widened. - **Logic**: Internationally, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase, and the inventory of US cotton is expected to accumulate. Domestically, the production of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and the demand is gradually weakening seasonally. The January contract has limited upward driving force but is supported by the cost of new cotton [13] - **Outlook**: The January contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the long - term valuation is low and weakly upward - oscillating [13] 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price has rebounded slightly. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the pressure on the sugar price will gradually increase as the new sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere comes on the market [14] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [14] 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The pulp price oscillates as the positive and negative factors remain unchanged. - **Logic**: Positive factors include the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, the strong price of broad - leaf pulp, and the relatively high price of non - cloth needle pulp. Negative factors include the possible delivery of about 70,000 tons of warehouse receipts in the January contract, the expected non - reduction of coniferous pulp imports, and the decreasing use of coniferous pulp [15] - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15] 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: Offset paper follows the raw material price and oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The raw material price is falling, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is limited, and the cost support is weakening. In November, there is price support from publisher pick - up, but in December, there may be a downward pressure due to dealers' inventory clearance [16] - **Outlook**: Short - term price support from publisher pick - up, medium - term weakly oscillating [16] 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: The supply and demand are loose, and the price oscillates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate weakly around the cost line [17][18] - **Outlook**: Weakly oscillating at a low level [18]