1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation remains the dominant factor affecting oil prices. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks will impact the supply of oil and gas, and the market is closely watching the further development of the negotiations. The energy and chemical industry is expected to continue its oscillatory consolidation, with olefins being relatively weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends of Various Products - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium is fluctuating, and the supply pressure persists. If the geopolitical support gradually weakens, the oil price is expected to return to a weaker pattern [4]. - **Asphalt**: The increase in rebar prices drives up the asphalt futures price on the sentiment side. The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the absolute price is overvalued [4][9]. - **High-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia-Ukraine agreement drives the fuel oil price down [4]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weakness of crude oil. Although it is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, it is still affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution [4][11]. - **Methanol**: The overseas disturbance is confirmed, and methanol is expected to be strong in the short term. The expected reduction in imports in December and the restart of downstream备货 contribute to the price increase [3][4]. - **Urea**: The centralized procurement has paused, and the futures price has declined slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly [4][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The supply-demand pattern has improved, and some short positions have been closed. However, the rebound height is limited due to the long-term supply pressure [4][21]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price has changed from strong to adjustment. The supply pressure is expected to be alleviated by the maintenance of some devices [4][13]. - **PTA**: The basis has emerged from the downturn, and the profit has been slightly repaired. The supply-demand pattern has improved marginally, and the inventory has decreased [4][14]. - **Short Fiber**: The downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it follows the upstream passively [4][25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The cost support has increased, and the price has rebounded slightly [4][26]. - **Propylene**: The spot is strong, and the PL fluctuates [4][35]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and the change in maintenance needs to be monitored [4][34]. - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate has increased slightly, and the price fluctuates [4][33]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and it mainly fluctuates [4][18]. - **PVC**: The high inventory suppresses the price, and it may be anchored to production cuts [4][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply and demand are weak, and the valuation is low. It is expected to fluctuate [4][37]. 3.2 Data Monitoring of Various Products - **Inter - Period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PTA have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for the future price relationship of different periods [39]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of products like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX also show different trends, which can help analyze the market's current supply - demand relationship and price rationality [40]. - **Inter - Product Spread**: The inter - product spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc. have changed, which can reflect the relative price relationship and market structure between different products [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and plate index of the commodity index show different trends. The comprehensive index has increased slightly, while the energy index has declined [281][282].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: On the evening of November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and it's possible that key figures will turn dovish in the next two weeks. The US GDP in the third and fourth quarters is expected to face pressure due to various factors such as the decline in core shipments in August, rising unemployment rate in September, and weakening manufacturing PMI in November [5]. - Domestic: The domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of the debt - resolution surplus quota may bring marginal benefits to infrastructure investment in the fourth quarter. The central bank may not be in a hurry to further relax policies in the short term [5]. - Asset Views: Due to the Fed's divergence on the December rate cut, the hawkish tone of the October meeting minutes, and the better - than - expected September non - farm data, the December rate - cut expectation was once suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market sentiment was boosted. It is recommended to allocate assets evenly in the fourth quarter and pay attention to the opportunities of stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.15% daily and weekly, fell 4.24% monthly and 3.96% quarterly, and rose 13.11% this year. The SSE 50 futures fell 0.07% daily and weekly, 2.35% monthly and 1.49% quarterly. The CSI 500 futures rose 0.85% daily and weekly, fell 5.735% monthly and 6.25% quarterly, and rose 19.93% this year. The CSI 1000 futures rose 1.10% daily and weekly, fell 3.71% monthly and 4.20% quarterly, and rose 21.31% this year [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.014 daily and weekly, fell 0.08% monthly, rose 0.134 quarterly, and fell 0.54% this year. The 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily and weekly, fell 0.16% monthly, rose 0.25% quarterly, and fell 0.61% this year [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat daily, rose 0.100% weekly, 0.42% monthly, and 2.383% quarterly. The euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change daily and weekly, fell 23 pips monthly and 221 pips quarterly, and rose 1160 pips this year [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was flat daily, weekly, and quarterly, fell 1 bp monthly, and fell 30 bp this year. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rose 0.3 bp daily, was flat weekly, rose 2.1 bp monthly, fell 44 bp quarterly, and rose 0.1 bp this year [2]. - **Hot Industries**: The national defense and military industry rose 4.45% daily and weekly, fell 0.31% monthly and 2.95% quarterly, and rose 17.50% this year. The media industry rose 3.53% daily and 3.50% weekly, rose 0.68% monthly, fell 5.07% quarterly, and rose 30.89% this year [2]. - **Overseas Markets**: NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 1.834 daily, fell 2.93% weekly, 4.76% monthly, 7.13% quarterly, and 19.33% this year. ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.05% daily, 2.77% weekly, 3.21% monthly, 5.50% quarterly, and 16.469% this year [2]. - **Domestic Commodities**: The container shipping to Europe route rose 0.80% daily and weekly, rose 0.97% monthly, fell 4.52% quarterly, and fell 30.50% this year. Gold rose 0.36% daily and weekly, rose 0.58% monthly, 6.10% quarterly, and 50.634% this year [3]. 3.2 Short - term Market Judgments - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to move in a narrow range [6]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to move sideways [6]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route and steel are expected to move sideways, and iron ore is also expected to trade within a range [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most black building materials such as coke, coking coal, and silicon iron are expected to move sideways, with some low - valued varieties having potential for a phased rebound [6]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to move sideways, with aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to decline in a volatile way [6]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are expected to decline in a volatile manner. Most other energy and chemical products are expected to move sideways [8]. - **Agriculture**: Most agricultural products are expected to move sideways, with some such as soybean oil and sugar expected to decline in a volatile way [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [8][9][10] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating" [9] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed down, and the hedging force has taken profit. The market is waiting for further catalysts to rise. It is necessary to observe policy signals and the sustainability of the main line [3][9] - The sentiment in the stock index options market has improved with reduced volatility. Attention should be paid to the lower support level. For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy, and for those without positions, consider selling put options after confirming the support [4][9] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank's operations have maintained the balance of the short - term capital market. Although the bond market direction is unclear, it is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward bias in the future [5][10][11] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views Stock Index Futures - The current month's basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM closed at - 12.85, - 6.16, - 41.37, and - 61.21 points respectively, with changes of - 40.44, - 20.91, - 98.36, and - 123.71 points compared to the previous trading day [8] - The inter - month spreads (current month - next month) of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 15.8, 2.8, 50, and 65.4 points respectively, with环比 changes of - 37, - 21.4, - 54.4, and - 46.6 points [8] - The positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 7338, - 5627, - 12741, and - 21593 lots respectively [8] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and oscillated on Monday, and the market stopped falling. The hedging sentiment eased. The decline of US technology stocks slowed down, reducing the domestic liquidity pressure. High - beta sectors led the rebound, and the short - selling profit - taking in the futures market promoted the convergence of the basis discount [3][9] - The secondary upward movement of the market still awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, continue the dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the window for layout switching. The operation suggestion is to combine the dividend ETF with long positions in IM [3][9] Stock Index Options - The underlying market continued the defensive sentiment at the opening but stabilized in the afternoon. The CSI 1000 rose 1.26%. The trading volume in the options market was 8344 million yuan, a 46.10% decrease from the previous day. The implied volatility index decreased by an average of 1.53%. The short - term defensive behavior in the market weakened, and there was a new trend of selling options entering the market. Multiple varieties' position PCRs hit the bottom [4][9] - For those with stock positions, continue the covered call strategy to increase returns. For those without positions, considering the high skewness level of each variety, sell put options after confirming the lower support [4][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 79246, 46495, 23207, and 64907 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 23755, - 17953, - 6065, and - 32915 lots. The positions were 68863, 42749, 11765, and 47308 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 31002, - 12913, - 10325, and - 12009 lots [10] - The current - quarter to next - quarter spreads of T, TF, TS, and TL were 0.170, - 0.105, 0.042, and 0.180 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.020, - 0.055, - 0.008, and - 0.020 yuan [10] - The cross - variety spreads of TF*2 - T, TS*2 - TF, TS*4 - T, and T*3 - TL in the current quarter were 103.275, 99.030, 301.335, and 209.755 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.005, - 0.035, - 0.075, and 0.035 yuan [10] - The current - quarter basis of T, TF, TS, and TL was 0.023, - 0.022, - 0.009, and 0.115 yuan respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 0.064, - 0.050, 0.000, and - 0.049 yuan [10] - The central bank's 7 - day reverse repurchase operation had a net investment of 5.57 billion yuan, and the MLF operation had a net investment of 10 billion yuan. The capital market remained balanced. The stock - bond seesaw effect was evident, but the bond market direction is unclear due to differences in expectations for loose monetary policy and the undetermined fund fee regulations. It is expected that the bond market will remain oscillating with a slight upward bias [5][10][11] - For trend strategies, expect the market to oscillate with a slight upward bias. For hedging strategies, pay attention to long - position substitution at high basis levels. For basis strategies, focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening. For curve strategies, appropriately pay attention to curve steepening [11] 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week includes US PPI, retail sales, GDP, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profits, and the EU's economic sentiment index [12] 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The installed capacity of solar power and wind power increased significantly. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [13] - Affected by the decline in international oil prices, domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24 [13] - On November 25, the central bank carried out a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan with a net investment of 10 billion yuan [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with specific ratings for each variety as follows: steel - oscillation; iron ore - oscillation with an upward bias; scrap steel - oscillation; coke - oscillation; coking coal - oscillation with an upward bias; glass - oscillation; manganese silicon - oscillation; silicon iron - oscillation; soda ash - oscillation [8][12][15][16][19] Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are improving, and with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December and overseas interest - rate cut expectations, the macro - environment is favorable, leading to a low - level rebound in the futures market. However, as the off - season deepens, demand may weaken, and high inventory levels limit the upside potential. Iron ore prices are strong due to potential restocking demand, while scrap steel prices are expected to oscillate. Coke is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation, and coking coal's far - month contracts may oscillate with an upward bias. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to trade around cost levels. Glass and soda ash face over - supply issues, with glass prices likely to oscillate weakly without more cold repairs, and soda ash prices expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long run [2][7][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines' shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in arrivals this period after a decrease in the previous two weeks. Port inventories slightly declined, and steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased. Short - term hot metal is expected to be supported, and iron ore restocking demand may be released, so iron ore prices are strong. Scrap steel supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and is expected to oscillate [3] Carbon Element - After profit recovery and environmental relaxation, coke supply stabilized. Short - term steel mill demand remained strong, and total inventory continued to decline, but cost support for spot prices weakened, and the market expected price cuts. Coke futures are expected to follow coking coal in oscillation. Coking coal's fundamentals have not significantly weakened, and downstream winter restocking is expected after spot price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [3] Alloy - Manganese silicon has strong cost support, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels. Silicon iron's cost supports the price bottom, but oversupply restricts the upside, and it is also expected to trade around cost levels [4][7] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass supply may be disrupted, but mid - and downstream inventories are relatively high, and the current supply - demand is oversupplied. Without more cold repairs by the end of the year, high inventories will suppress prices, otherwise, prices may rise. Soda ash prices are near cost, with obvious bottom support, but oversupply restricts price increases. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15] Steel - Spot market transactions were good, steel mill profitability decreased, but production enthusiasm remained high, and steel output slightly increased. Steel demand was resilient, and overall inventory continued to decline, but inventory levels were still higher than the same period last year. The fundamentals are improving, and the futures market has the driving force for a low - level rebound, but the upside is limited due to the off - season and high inventory [10] Iron Ore - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival rhythm fluctuated greatly. Spot prices mostly rose. From a fundamental perspective, overseas mine shipments decreased, arrivals increased this period, and the hurricane affected the arrival rhythm. Hot metal production slightly decreased, and restocking demand has not been significantly released. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [10] Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals slightly increased, and electric furnace profits significantly recovered after the decline in scrap prices and the rise in finished product prices. The total daily consumption of 255 steel mills slightly decreased, and steel mills slightly replenished their inventories. The supply increased while demand remained stable, with limited downside space after price drops, and it is expected to oscillate [11] Coke - Futures followed coking coal in oscillation. Spot prices declined, and supply slightly increased after the improvement of coking profits and the end of environmental restrictions. Demand was weakening as hot metal production declined slightly. Inventory at coke enterprises slightly increased but remained low. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal in oscillation [12][13] Coking Coal - Futures were under pressure and oscillated. Spot prices of some varieties declined. Domestic supply remained low, and the fundamentals have not significantly weakened. There is restocking demand for downstream winter storage after price corrections. The near - month contracts are affected by delivery and are expected to oscillate, while the far - month contracts are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [14] Manganese Silicon - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions were average, and manufacturers were under cost pressure. Cost support remained strong, but the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [17] Silicon Iron - Futures prices rose and then fell. Spot market transactions needed improvement. Cost support was strong, but oversupply restricted the upside, and prices are expected to trade around cost levels [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the week of November 23, both global on - land crude oil inventories and floating storage inventories increased slightly, while the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories continued to decline from a high level. Year - on - year, the inventory pressure remained high. Regionally, inventories in China decreased slightly, while those in Russia, India, the Middle East, and Europe increased, with a significant jump in Russian inventories. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of subsequent inventory accumulation in Russia under the background of reduced exports [2] 3. Grouped Summaries - **Global Inventory Situation** - Global on - land crude oil inventories and floating storage inventories rose slightly in the week of November 23, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories continued to fall from a high level, but the year - on - year inventory pressure was still large [2] - **Regional Inventory Changes** - China: Crude oil inventories decreased slightly [2] - Russia: Crude oil inventories jumped significantly, and the sustainability of subsequent inventory accumulation under the background of reduced exports needs attention [2] - India: Crude oil inventories increased [2] - Middle East: Crude oil inventories increased [2] - Europe: Crude oil inventories increased [2]

Report Summary 1. Core Data - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 126.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 116.4 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is 304.1 billion yuan. As of November 23, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 95.3% [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 101.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 142.7 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned net financing is -56.1 billion yuan. As of November 23, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 92.6% [10]. - As of November 23, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 90.4%. This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 2.04 billion yuan, an increase of 0.78 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 0.88 billion yuan. As of November 23, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in November was 3.29 billion yuan [17][18]. - As of November 23, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 96.2%. This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 82.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.1 billion yuan from the previous week. Next week, the planned issuance is 225.4 billion yuan. As of November 23, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in November was 266.9 billion yuan [18]. 2. Core View The report provides a detailed tracking of the issuance of government bonds in the 47th week of 2025, including the net financing scale and issuance progress of local government bonds, treasury bonds, general bonds, and special bonds, which helps investors understand the current situation of government bond issuance.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The exchange's position limits have curbed the previous market excitement, leading to a correction in lithium prices. However, the demand for lithium carbonate remains resilient, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to continue the tight pattern. The report maintains a bullish view and suggests buying on dips [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 21, the price of lithium carbonate futures dropped significantly, with the main contract falling by over 8% to the range of 91,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. This is mainly due to the cooling of the previous high - pitched market sentiment [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an increase in handling fees for some lithium carbonate contracts and set stricter single - day opening limits after the market closed on November 20. Starting from the trading time on November 24, the handling fees for LC2001 contracts will be adjusted to 0.032% of the trading amount, and for LC2602 - LC2605 contracts to 0.016%. The single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients will be restricted, with no more than 500 lots for LC2001 contracts and no more than 2,000 lots for LC2602 - LC2606 contracts [2]. - This week, the de - stocking rate of lithium carbonate has slightly slowed down. As of November 20, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream and downstream inventories continued to decline, while the inventory in other links increased [2]. Fundamental Situation - Demand: The demand for lithium carbonate remains optimistic. The de - stocking trend is expected to continue from November to December. Downstream consumption is active, and the production schedules in November and December are still supported. The possibility of a short - term sharp decline is small. Terminal demand is also strong, with policies such as "replacing old with new" and purchase tax reduction supporting the production and sales of new energy vehicles at the end of the year, and the improvement of energy storage economy driving the construction of new energy storage projects. However, the demand in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [3]. - Supply: As of November 20, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was about 22,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 565 tons (+ 2.7%). In October, 23,881 tons of lithium carbonate were imported, a month - on - month increase of 21.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The supply is still on the rise. The resumption progress of small - scale lithium mines needs to be closely monitored [3]. - Inventory: As of November 20, the social inventory was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,062 tons (- 1.7%). The upstream inventory was 26,000 tons (- 8% week - on - week), the downstream inventory was 44,000 tons (- 9% week - on - week), and the inventory in other links was 48,000 tons (+ 10% week - on - week) [3]. Summary and Strategy - Summary: The exchange's position limits have curbed the market sentiment, causing a correction in lithium prices. But the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. The supply - demand situation in December is expected to remain tight [4]. - Strategy: Maintain a bullish view and consider buying on dips when prices fall [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - The overall allocation idea for the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stocks, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and increase allocations appropriately if there is a certain degree of correction in the fourth quarter [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory overshoot" after the restart of the US government and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. After the release of the "delayed" US September non - farm payroll data, both non - farm employment and the unemployment rate exceeded expectations, but the market seemed to focus on the weaker unemployment data, causing US stocks to open high and close low with a significant decline [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, economic data continued the weak and stable trend, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals was not yet evident. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak fund arrival, rhythmic decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow slightly but remained resilient. The 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan local government's unused quota withdrawn in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [8]. 2. Asset Performance 2.1 Financial Assets - **Stock Index Futures**: Include CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures. They showed varying degrees of decline on a daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly basis, but had significant increases this year, with increases ranging from 12.12% to 24.19% [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures also had different performance trends. For example, the 2 - year treasury bond futures had a 0.00% daily change, and a - 0.50% change this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index, euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and US dollar central parity rate all had their own change rates, with the US dollar - yen having a 0.7% increase this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield, and 10Y US treasury bond yield had corresponding changes, for example, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by about 45 bp this year [3]. 2.2 Industry Indexes - **Domestic Industries**: Industries such as construction, steel, and non - ferrous metals showed different degrees of increase, while industries like food and beverage, and computers had varying degrees of decline. For example, the non - ferrous metals industry had a 33.74% increase this year, while the food and beverage industry had a - 4.32% change [4]. 2.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil, ICE Brent crude oil, and other energy commodities had different performance. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil had an 18.24% decline this year, while NYMEX natural gas had a 28.59% increase [4]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and COMEX silver both had significant increases this year, with increases of 54.46% and 71.92% respectively [4]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper and LME aluminum also showed different trends, with LME copper having a 21.69% increase this year [4]. 2.4 Domestic Commodities - **Shipping**: The container shipping to Europe route had a - 27.74% change this year [5]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver in the domestic market also had different performance, with silver having a 61.31% increase this year [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals had their own trends, for example, copper had a 16.75% increase this year [5]. 3. Sector and Variety Analysis 3.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is in a state of "trading time for space" with a dumbbell - style allocation transition. Facing the problem of insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: The strategy is mainly based on covered call defense. Due to the possible insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The impact of the capital market may be limited. Affected by factors such as unexpected incremental policies, unexpected stock market rises, and unexpected monetary policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and trade tensions, precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. Affected by factors such as the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe Route**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the loading is under pressure and lacks upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel and Ore**: The cost performance is differentiated, the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, the spot price is firm, and the trading volume is marginally weakening. Pay attention to factors such as the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron ore production, and the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Coke**: The profit has been repaired, and the spot price is temporarily stable. Affected by factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: After the restart of the US government, the copper price is consolidating at a high level. Affected by factors such as supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, and unexpected Fed policies, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price has corrected. Affected by factors such as macro - risks, supply disruptions, and unexpected demand, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. Affected by OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. - **LPG**: The refinery's external supply volume has decreased, and the import cost is under pressure. Affected by cost - related factors such as crude oil and overseas propane, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12]. 3.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: The strength of US soybean oil has boosted the domestic soybean and palm oil markets. Affected by factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating upward trend [12]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of state reserves release is strong, and the futures market has reduced positions and declined. Affected by factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions, the short - term judgment is a fluctuating trend [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to maintain a range - bound and high - elasticity oscillation, with no clear trend in the short term, and the spread - widening strategy of RU - NR has basically ended [1][2][15]. - The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy, and the market will face a game of multiple long and short factors in the future, with all types of oils expected to oscillate [7]. - In the protein meal market, the US soybeans are expected to oscillate strongly, and the domestic continuous meal is also expected to oscillate strongly, influenced by factors such as South American weather and Chinese procurement [8]. - The corn and starch market will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building [8][9]. - The pig market has an abundant supply of pigs, with prices running weakly in the short term and a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the long term [11]. - The synthetic rubber market has a stable atmosphere and the disk continues to oscillate. Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. - The cotton price has limited upward and downward space, with a short - term callback risk and a long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. - The sugar price is under increasing supply pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium and long term [18]. - The pulp market is mainly driven by funds, with the futures market showing a wide - range oscillation [19]. - The double - gum paper market is driven by limited tender support and will oscillate [20]. - The log market has a low valuation and will fluctuate at a low level [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils - **View**: The sentiment in the oil market weakened due to the fluctuating expectations of the US biodiesel policy. - **Logic**: The US biodiesel policy expectations are fluctuating, the macro - environment is complex, and the industrial situation shows that the US soybean harvest is nearing completion, the Brazilian and Argentine soybean plantings are progressing, and the domestic and international supply and demand situations vary. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all oscillate [7]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: In the South American weather market, US soybeans are stronger than the continuous meal. - **Logic**: Globally, the South American soybean planting is affected by La Nina, the US soybean planting area is expected to expand, and the export is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean import profit is deteriorating, and the supply pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and continuous meal will oscillate strongly [8]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The oscillation market continues, and attention should be paid to the game between selling pressure after freezing and inventory building. - **Logic**: The supply side has a slow selling rhythm due to cold weather, and the demand side has concentrated demand in the Northeast. There is also import corn auction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [8][9]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the prices are running weakly. - **Logic**: In the short term, the scale - farm's daily average slaughter volume may increase at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is being reduced. The demand is affected by temperature, and the inventory is increasing. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Maintain the range - bound pattern. - **Logic**: The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, the raw material price is firm but may fall, the demand has not changed significantly, and the RU has greater selling pressure than NR. - **Outlook**: Continue to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, with no trend in the short term [1][15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market atmosphere is stable, and the disk continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The BR's rise is affected by overseas device news. The butadiene supply is abundant, and the downstream buying is cautious. The market has a short - term bottom support. - **Outlook**: Before the butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions, short at high prices [16][17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price has limited upward and downward space. - **Logic**: The previous bullish factors have been digested, the production expectation is increasing, the supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. - **Outlook**: Short - term callback risk, long - term tendency to oscillate strongly [17]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the sugar price continues to weaken. - **Logic**: The new sugar in the Northern Hemisphere is being squeezed, and the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the new season. - **Outlook**: Oscillation and weakening in the medium and long term [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The disk price has dropped significantly, which is still affected by the inflow and outflow of funds. - **Logic**: The futures drive the spot, the long - position funds are leaving, and there is a clear position - shifting phenomenon. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The tender support is limited, and the double - gum paper oscillates. - **Logic**: The paper mills want to maintain prices, the downstream demand is rigid, the tender price is low, and the cost support is general. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: The valuation is low, and the disk fluctuates at a low level. - **Logic**: The supply will increase in December and the long - term pressure exists. The demand is weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026. - **Outlook**: Low - level oscillation [22][23]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index is 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial product index is 2200.99, down 0.68%. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 20, 2025, the agricultural product index is 924.06, with a daily decline of 0.52%, a 5 - day decline of 1.46%, a 1 - month decline of 0.45%, and a year - to - date decline of 3.21% [183][185].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's precious metal prices fluctuated. After significant weakening in July and August, the number of new non - farm jobs in September rebounded more than expected, but the unemployment rate rose simultaneously. The Fed's data - dependent style further reduces the probability of a December interest rate cut, but long - term interest rate cut expectations remain optimistic due to the negative impact of the government shutdown [1][3] - In the long term, the upward trend of precious metals remains. The over - issuance of debt and de - globalization, as the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - In September, the seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, far exceeding the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate was 4.4%, the highest since 2021. The average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year - on - year. These data strengthen the position of hawkish members of the FOMC [2] - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 220,000, lower than the expected 230,000. The four - week average was 224,250. The number of continued jobless claims from November 8 was 1,974,000, slightly higher than the expected 1,960,000 [2] - The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in November was - 1.7, lower than the expected 2. The employment index was 6, and the price acquisition index was 17.7 [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from spill - over effects. In 2026, the global economic shift is favorable for silver's elasticity [3] - The expected price range for spot London gold is [3800, 4200] US dollars per ounce, and for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3] 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 20, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2234.73, down 0.64%; the commodity 20 index was 2535.29, down 0.70%; the industrial products index was 2200.99, down 0.68% [42] - The precious metals index on November 20, 2025 was 3328.49, with a daily decline of 0.57%, a 5 - day decline of 2.27%, a 1 - month increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 50.45% [44]