Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - to long - term outlooks are mostly positive, with some expected to be "oscillating strongly" and others "oscillating". 2. Core Viewpoints - The panic sentiment in the base metals market has eased, and the base metals have stopped falling and stabilized [2]. - In the short term, the panic has been significantly released. With the stop - falling of precious metals and active downstream buying, there are opportunities for short - term low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. - In the medium term, due to the risk of the Fed's independence and supply - side disturbances, metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. - In the long term, with potential domestic stimulus policies and supply - side issues, the supply and demand of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to tighten, and their prices are optimistic [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the spot of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 150 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged month - on - month. The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to consider including copper concentrates in the strategic reserve [8]. - **Logic**: The previous risk - aversion sentiment in the market has recovered, and the strategic reserve value of copper is prominent. The supply of copper mines is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrates continues to decline, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly [8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On January 29, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons [8]. - **Logic**: The current spot average price has declined significantly compared to the end of last year. High - cost inland production capacity is facing losses, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price has pressure above, so it is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment has recovered, and aluminum prices have stabilized. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month. On February 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,000 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: The US January interest - rate meeting was neutral, and the short - term risk appetite decreased. But the macro - outlook is expected to be positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. The weekly initial - stage operating rate has decreased, and the inventory has accumulated. Overall, the macro - expectation is positive, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight [8][9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium term [11]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Analysis**: On February 3, ADC12 was reported at 23,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,327 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 396 yuan/ton [12][14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is mainly for rigid - need replenishment. The weekly social inventory has accumulated [12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the short and medium terms [12]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment of the non - ferrous sector has stabilized, and the decline of zinc prices has slowed down. - **Analysis**: On February 3, Shanghai 0 zinc had a discount of - 5 yuan/ton to the main contract, Guangdong 0 zinc had a discount of - 35 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc had a discount of - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons [12][13]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest - rate decision was in line with expectations, but the macro - outlook was volatile. The supply of zinc mines is tight in the short term, and the refinery profit has declined. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is average. The short - term export of zinc ingots will continue, and the inventory accumulation pressure is not large. In the long term, the supply of zinc ingots will increase, and the demand growth is limited [13]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The decline of non - ferrous metals has slowed down, but the warehouse receipts have increased significantly, and the lead price oscillates downward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,425 - 16,525 yuan/ton, with an average of 16,475 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 150 yuan/ton. On February 2, the domestic social inventory of lead ingots was 39,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 33,439 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,021 tons [14][15]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has increased slightly, the original - recycled spread has decreased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the production of recycled lead has decreased. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened, while those for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level [15]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has recovered, and nickel prices are oscillating upward. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 48,180 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,606 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285,528 tons, unchanged month - on - month. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [16][17]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. However, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the 2026 nickel ore quota, which has adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [16]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel prices have recovered, and the stainless - steel market is oscillating. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 had a premium of 415 yuan/ton to the stainless - steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,030 - 1,065 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), a decrease of 10 - 15 yuan compared to February 2 [17]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively firm, and the cost of stainless steel has support. The production in December decreased, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is still cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [17][18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [18]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. - **Analysis**: On February 3, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 10 tons to 7,105 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 427 tons to 8,097 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 3,262 lots to 92,297 lots. The average price of Yangtze River Nonferrous 1 tin ingots was 392,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 36,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply in Wa State may improve, while the supply in Indonesia is restricted, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is severe. The supply of ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt. However, the short - term price may fluctuate due to the strong US dollar, stable ore supply, and weakened bullish power [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating strongly in the medium to long term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be vigilant [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2,374.28, a decrease of 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2,707.14, a decrease of 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2,290.30, a decrease of 0.97% [145]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 3, 2026, had a daily decline of 1.15%, a decline of 7.34% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.65% in the past month, and a decline of 0.29% since the beginning of the year [147].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - After a significant correction in the precious metals market, the short - term overheating risk has eased, and the prices of platinum and palladium have rebounded. As of the close on February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 572.95 yuan/gram, with a gain of 3.54%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 450.55 yuan/gram, with a gain of 8.62% [1]. - For platinum, the short - term overheating risk has been alleviated, and it is expected to be oscillating upward. The long - term supply - demand structure and macro - logic remain unchanged, and there are low - buying opportunities. In the future, South Africa may face power supply and extreme weather risks in supply, while the demand in the automotive catalyst field is stable, and the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point [2]. - For palladium, due to the expected tariff and tight spot supply, it has significantly rebounded. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut also has a positive impact [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Performance - As of February 3, 2026, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 572.95 yuan/gram, up 3.54%; the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 450.55 yuan/gram, up 8.62% [1]. Platinum Analysis - Main logic: After the correction, the overheating risk has been released, and the long - term supply - demand and macro - logic remain unchanged. Although short - term price fluctuations may be large, the long - term view is bullish. - Supply: South Africa, the main supplier, may face power supply and extreme weather risks. - Demand: The automotive catalyst demand is stable, the hydrogen energy industry is a growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding. The "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [2]. Palladium Analysis - Main logic: In the short term, the overheating risk has been released. In the medium - short term, it is supported by tight spot supply, US tariff - increasing expectations, and potential sanctions on Russian palladium. The Fed's interest - rate cut is positive. - Outlook: Oscillating upward [3]. Commodity Index - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2374.28, down 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2707.14, down 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2290.30, down 0.97% [50]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2678.30, with a daily decline of 1.15%, a 5 - day decline of 7.34%, a 1 - month decline of 5.65%, and a year - to - date decline of 0.29% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Precious metals prices rebounded significantly after two days of sharp declines, likely due to bargain - hunting after the sharp drop and the current key economic data vacuum, which boosted risk - aversion sentiment. Short - term, precious metals are likely to maintain high volatility, and caution is advised in operations [2]. - Gold has entered an adjustment phase after overheating in the short - term and is likely to show a wide - range oscillating trend. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. Silver will have wide - range oscillations in the short - term, and high volatility risks should be watched out for. The medium - to - long - term positive support for silver prices is still strong [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - Precious metals prices rebounded after two days of sharp declines, driven by bargain - hunting and the data vacuum. The U.S. government shutdown led to the postponement of key economic data such as the January non - farm report. Short - term, the high - volatility pattern is likely to continue [2]. Gold Analysis - Short - term: Entered an adjustment phase after overheating, with a wide - range oscillating trend. The recent sharp rise was due to bargain - hunting after a sharp drop and the postponement of key data caused by the government shutdown. The release of better - than - expected PMI data, progress in U.S. - India tariff negotiations, and the easing of U.S. - Iran nuclear tensions may limit the increase. The adjustment of gold futures margin by exchanges will increase short - term volatility risks [3]. - Medium - to - long - term: The upward logic remains unchanged. Silver Analysis - Short - term: Wide - range oscillations, with high volatility risks. The rebound was due to bargain - hunting after a technical correction. The adjustment of silver futures margin by exchanges will increase short - term volatility. The decline in short - term silver tariff risks, the slowdown of U.S. silver hoarding, and the decrease in the London silver spot lease rate have weakened the positive drivers on the silver spot side. The short - term core drivers are similar to those of gold, and the volatility risk is significantly greater than that of gold [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Positive support is still strong. Commodity Index - On February 3, 2026, the comprehensive commodity index was 2374.28, down 1.93%; the commodity 20 index was 2707.14, down 2.40%; the industrial products index was 2290.30, down 0.97% [44]. - The precious metals index on February 3, 2026, was 4162.66, with a daily decline of 6.40%, a 5 - day decline of 19.26%, a 1 - month increase of 2.57%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.85% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: Liquidity stampede has eased, and the investment style may shift from cyclical to technology sectors for potential catch - up growth. The position can be switched to IM long positions, and ETF investors can focus on the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [1][6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has stabilized, and implied volatility has declined. As the market stabilizes, the previous put - hedging strategy can be reduced or converted to a covered - call strategy [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The long - end of treasury bond futures has weakened. The long - end interest rate trend is unclear and is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern. In the short term, arbitrage trading is recommended, with a focus on the convergence opportunity of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and then declined, rebounding in a V - shape after testing the 4000 - point level. There were three positive signals indicating the easing of liquidity stampede pressure, including the peak - to - decline of the VIX of gold, silver, copper, and aluminum in the overnight overseas market, the stabilization of domestic commodity prices, and the alleviation of concerns about balance - sheet reduction [1][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: The style may shift from cyclical to technology sectors. Since the congestion of the non - ferrous industry has reached a three - year high and the TMT congestion is at a medium historical level, technology stocks have more room for catch - up growth. The position should be switched to IM long positions, and ETF investors can focus on the ChiNext and STAR Market indices [1][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: On Tuesday, the underlying asset rebounded in a V - shape during the day. The total trading volume of financial options dropped to 128.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.3% compared to Monday. The implied volatility of options declined from a high level, and the skewness of most varieties increased [2][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: As the market stabilizes, the previous put - hedging strategy can be reduced or converted to a covered - call strategy. However, due to the approaching long holiday, caution is advised when selling volatility [2][7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend, with TS, TF, and T contracts strengthening and the TL contract weakening. The inter - bank market liquidity was stable, and the central bank conducted a repurchase operation, enhancing the liquidity of the banking system. In the long term, the promotion of dividend - insurance products and the transfer of bank deposits are expected to support premium income in 2026 [2][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - end interest rate trend is unclear and is expected to continue the oscillatory pattern. In the short term, arbitrage trading is recommended, with a focus on the convergence opportunity of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds. Trend strategy: oscillatory. Hedging strategy: focus on short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: focus on long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: focus on the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y curve in the short term [2][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On February 3, 2026, equity index futures rose, CGB futures were mixed, and most commodities declined with non - ferrous metals leading the rises [10][12][13] - Short - term copper prices are volatile due to macro disturbances but have a favorable medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook [16][21][22] - Tin prices have strong downside support in the medium - to - long - term but face short - term volatility risks [26][28][30] - Crude oil prices dropped, and the market is in supply - surplus, with the future trend depending on the U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [33][34][36] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IC rose 3.8% and IM rose 2.9% [10][12] - CGB futures: TF rose 0.08% and TL dropped 0.10% [10] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were Palladium (8.6% rise, 4.3% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Poly - Silicon (6.6% rise, 4.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and SCFIS(Europe) (5.2% rise, 1.3% month - on - month open - interest increase); top decliners were Silver (16.7% decline, 10.4% month - on - month open - interest decrease), Tin (6.7% decline, 7.5% month - on - month open - interest decrease), and Crude Oil (4.9% decline, 12.6% month - on - month open - interest decrease) [11][12][13] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Copper - On February 3, the front - month contract of copper rose 2.6% to 104,500 yuan/ton (SHFE) [16][21][23] - Macro: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair led to a stronger dollar and copper price correction [17][21] - Supply - demand: Supply disruptions increased, long - term processing fees were at a low, squeezing smelters' profits; demand is currently weak but expected to be tight in the long run [18][19][20] 3.1.3 Daily Drop 3.1.3.1 Tin - On February 3, the front - month contract of tin dropped 6.7% to 383,340 yuan/ton (SHFE) [26][29][31] - Supply: Issues in Wa State, Indonesia, and DRC affect supply; mineral - end supply tightens and smelter capital pressure increases [27][29][30] - Demand: Semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors drive demand growth [27][30] - Risk: Short - term price volatility due to a strong dollar, stable supply, and weakened long - side momentum [28][30] 3.1.3.2 Crude Oil - On February 3, the front - month contract of crude oil dropped 4.9% to 449.4 yuan/barrel (INE) [33][36][38] - Geopolitical: Tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, reducing the geopolitical premium [33][36] - Fundamentals: Global inventories rose, Kazakhstan's supply recovered, and refined - oil inventories faced pressure [34][36] - Outlook: Supply is in surplus; future prices depend on U.S. - Iran negotiation progress [35][36] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Shanghai launched the acquisition of second - hand housing for affordable rental housing in Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui Districts to meet talents' "job - housing balance" needs [41] 3.2.2 Industry News - The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusted the Ag(T + D) contract's margin from 26% to 23% and the price fluctuation limit from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [42]

日报公司 供需存改善预期,多晶硅价格有所修复 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 今日多最硅价格大幅回升。根据万得数据，多品硅主力合约上涨超8%，重回50000元/吨，此前在反垄断担忧影响下，多磊硅反内卷"预明出现动摇，叠加近明美元指数走强、风险资产普遍 间间，多磊疏价格阶段性承压。今日市场债等有所缓和，且多晶硅供需存在边际改善迹象。一方面，根固硅业分会消息，头部企业主动停产以消化库存，供应端压力得到进一步缓解；另一方 面,部分硅料企业重新展现挺价意愿,现货价格对盘面形成一定支撑。 基本面情况 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 投资咨询号:Z0021453 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 投资咨询号:Z0022425 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 从基本面来看，供应端方面，1月多磊硅供应进一步回落。根据驻业分会消息，当前头部企业已全面停产，部分企业办存在不同程度减产计划。从排产来看，硅业分会预计2月多最品产量进 -5下滑至8.2-8.5万吨，供应收缩力度持续加大。 需求碳方面，多最硅生产与同期硅片企业排产规模基本匹配，市场累库速度有 ...

信期货有限公司 2026年02月02日 IC Futures Company Limited 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 二、电解铝 三、铝合金 一、氧化铝 （1）提我的钢铁网，2月2日固产矿价格为491元 吨，环比0元 /吨，2月几、《1）据我的钢铁网，2月2日电解铝现货均价为23723元 /吨，环比-92元／（1）提我的钢铁网、2月2日生铝价格为1730元/吨，熟 铝价格为17750元/吨,环比-700元/吨。 吨;升贴水为-220元/吨,环比-10元/吨。 内亚进口矿价格61美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 据我的钢铁网,2月2日ADC12价格为23300元/吨,环比-400元/吨。 (2) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为150459吨,环比+5388吨。 (2) 据阿拉丁,1月30日现货价格指数为2610元/吨,环比0元/吨。 (3) 据我的钢铁网,2月2日铝棒加工费为21元/吨,环比+60元/吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为67725吨,环比-481吨。 (3) 据上期所,2月2日期货库存为182201吨,环比+11097吨。 氧化铝基本面观测指标 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 图表 2: 几 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market has returned to its fundamental situation and declined significantly after the overseas disturbances subsided. The report maintains the judgment of the methanol market's range - bound movement, suggesting to pay attention to the progress of the Iran situation, the operation of domestic coastal downstream MTO plants, and inventory changes [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The domestic methanol market shows a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal areas. In the inland market, the supply - side production has been at a high level, with the domestic methanol operating load at 91.73% on February 2, 2026. The inventory is in a de - stocking state, with the inventory at 42.47 tons (a 3.12% month - on - month decrease) as of January 30, 2026. The weak trend is expected to continue before the Spring Festival. In the coastal market, the import volume is expected to decrease, but the port inventory is still increasing, reaching 147.21 tons (a 1% month - on - month increase) as of January 30, 2026, mainly due to the weak downstream MTO demand [3] Overseas Disturbance Analysis - The situation in the Middle East has eased, increasing the probability of the restart of Iranian methanol plants from February to March, which may increase the domestic methanol import pressure and end the de - stocking window earlier. The U.S. natural gas price has dropped after the cold wave, and the methanol production cost, plant operation, and logistics transportation in the U.S. have returned to the pre - cold - wave level, which is expected to lead to a decline in the outer - market methanol price [3] Market Sentiment Analysis - The easing of the Iran situation has affected multiple fields, leading to a collective weak operation of related varieties, and the market sentiment is inclined to short - allocation. Although the Iran situation has eased, there is still uncertainty before it is completely resolved. The methanol market has declined significantly following the weak fundamentals, but the MTO profit is expected to gradually recover, and the restart of the Shandong Hengtong plant may boost the market [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 大类资产集体调整，贵金属剧烈波动 ——中信期货晨报20260203 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 金融市场涨跌幅 | 2026-02-02 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 年度涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 殷指 | 炉深300用货 | 4577. 4 | -2.66 | -2. 84 | -2. 84 | -0. 49 | -0. 49 | | | 上证50期货 | 3004. 2 | -2. 28 | -2. 27 | -2. 27 | -0. 69 | -0. 69 | | | 中证500期货 | 7903. 2 | -4. 79 | -5. 49 | -5. 49 | 7.34 | 7 ...