2025年07月25日 研究员: | 余典 | 陶存辉 | | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | | 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | | 从业资格号 F03100815 | | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | | 硅锰 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 坪比 | 硅铁 | 2025-07-25 | 2025-07-18 | 环比 | | 日均产量(吨/天) | 26640 | 26120 | 520 | 日均产量(吨/天) | 14615 | 14285 | 330 | | 周度开工率(%) | 41. 58 | 40. 53 | 1. 05 | 周度开工率(%) | 33. 33 | 32. 45 | 0. 88 | ...

日限公司 焦煤周度数据 2025年07月25日 | 研究员: | | --- | | 关事 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 | 钟宏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-16 | 坪比 | | 煤矿原煤库存 | 山西 | 54. 66 | 66. 58 | -11. 92 | | | 河北 | 52. 03 | 54. 69 | -2. 66 | | | 山东 | 81.6 | 91. 63 | -10. 03 | | | 专国 | 208. 89 | 236. 4 | -27. 51 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-23 | 2025 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for various energy and chemical products, including "oscillation", "oscillation with a downward bias", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of specific products [9][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strength of coal has ignited the energy - chemical chain, with low - inventory EG being the most prominent. The EU - US trade negotiation prospects affect overseas financial markets. The crude oil market is supported by low inventories in Europe and the US, and the overall profit of the chemical industry is expanding [2][3]. - The overall outlook for energy and chemicals is a strong - side oscillation. It is advisable for investors to participate with light positions and consider a hedging strategy of going long on coal - chemical products and short on oil - chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: The relaxation of US petroleum - related licenses for Venezuela may increase supply pressure. Although global on - land crude oil inventories are rising, the high operating rates of Chinese and US refineries and the strong profit stage continue, and the short - term improvement in demand expectations also supports oil prices. - **Outlook**: The strong reality dominated by high operating rates of domestic and foreign refineries and the weak expectation dominated by supply pressure form a balance, resulting in oil price oscillation [9]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The spot price continues to fall, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates around 3600. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase in August and September will increase heavy - oil supply, and the supply pressure at the raw material end will put pressure on the asphalt futures price. The demand side has a high valuation compared to other products, and the current foundation for asphalt to rise is not solid. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price still faces great downward pressure. - **Main Logic**: OPEC +'s over - expected production increase, the decline in natural gas prices, and the release of high - sulfur fuel oil spot liquidity all contribute to the downward pressure. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [10][11]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: It fluctuates with crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Although it has some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, its current valuation is low. - **Outlook**: It fluctuates with crude oil [13]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The strength of coal prices supports the upward movement of methanol. The supply in China may shrink, and the port inventory has decreased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [23][24]. 3.1.6 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment fades, the market returns to fundamentals, and it declines in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The supply is strong while the demand is weak. Although the price has risen recently, the downstream purchasing is cautious. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the context of a strong - supply and weak - demand pattern [24][25]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Cost support becomes the new driving force. - **Main Logic**: The continuous strength of coal prices supports the rise of coal - chemical products. Although overseas devices are restarting and port inventories are slightly increasing, the driving force for the rise has switched to cost. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract may remain strong for a longer time than previously expected [19][21]. 3.1.8 PX - **Viewpoint**: Driven by enthusiastic sentiment and cost rebound. - **Main Logic**: The stabilization of crude oil prices supports the cost of PX. The supply side is affected by maintenance, and the demand side is stable. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [14]. 3.1.9 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supported by cost, the market atmosphere is enthusiastic, and the supply is expected to shrink in August. - **Main Logic**: Cost provides strong support, and the announced maintenance plans of large manufacturers in August are expected to reduce supply. The polyester load has moderately increased. - **Outlook**: It oscillates [15]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: With the improvement of the macro - environment, downstream speculative stocking leads to inventory reduction. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream polyester raw materials and the "anti - involution" initiative, the downstream has stocking behavior, which promotes inventory reduction. - **Outlook**: The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [21]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: Polyester raw materials are strong, and the processing fee is passively compressed. - **Main Logic**: Supported by upstream costs, the price oscillates upwards, but the processing fee is compressed due to the strength of raw materials. - **Outlook**: The processing fee has a lower - bound support, and the absolute value fluctuates with raw materials [22]. 3.1.12 PP - **Viewpoint**: Boosted by the macro - environment, it oscillates upwards. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides four - fold boosts. Although the supply side has an increasing trend, the demand side is weak. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27][28]. 3.1.13 Propylene - **Viewpoint**: The spot support is limited, but the macro - environment dominates the market, and it may oscillate in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The short - term weakness of oil prices makes the spot price weak. As a new variety, there is significant capital game behavior. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [28]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the macro - environment, it oscillates strongly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term macro - environment provides multiple boosts. Although the supply side has pressure, the demand side is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.1.15 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may affect imports, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The risk of a short - squeeze in styrene has been eliminated, and the Q3 balance sheet of pure benzene has improved. Although the explicit and implicit inventories are high, the price is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Outlook**: The Q3 fundamentals improve, and the spot may oscillate strongly, but the amplitude is limited by high inventories [16][17]. 3.1.16 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Southeast Asian geopolitics may support the cost, leading to a rebound. - **Main Logic**: The improvement of the pure - benzene fundamentals has no obvious negative impact on styrene. After the price drops rapidly, styrene is expected to rebound. - **Outlook**: Supported by macro - policies, it is expected to oscillate strongly this week [17][18]. 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic. - **Main Logic**: The positive factors in the domestic petrochemical industry boost market sentiment. Although the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure, the cost is expected to increase. - **Outlook**: It is cautiously optimistic in the short term, but there is a risk of decline in the medium - and long - term [30]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation but weak reality, with a weak rebound. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached the peak. Although the demand from the alumina industry is increasing, the overall supply is still high. - **Outlook**: The positive policy expectation promotes the rebound of the caustic - soda market, and long positions can take profits at high levels to avoid risks [31][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Data on cross - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [33]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [34]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: Data on cross - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and change values [35]. The report also provides some data monitoring for specific chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc., but no detailed analysis is provided in this summary.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [12][13] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution hype continues, and the rising lithium price leads the new energy metals. The contraction expectation of the supply side and the cost increase expectation are strengthened. Lithium price is in the leading position, and one can bet on potential lithium price increases through options. The polysilicon price may slow down after a rapid rise [2]. - For industrial silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The spot price is rising, and the silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation [8]. - For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy boosts the price significantly, but attention should be paid to policy implementation. If the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis**: As of July 24, the prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 10,100 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively. As of July 18, the domestic inventory was 547,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. In June 2025, the monthly output was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8%. In June, the export volume was 68,323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%. From January to June, the cumulative export was 340,705 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%. In June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply shows a pattern of "decrease in the north and increase in the south". The large factories in the northwest continue to reduce production, supporting the silicon price. The demand is still weak year - on - year, but there are short - term marginal improvement signals. The inventory has changed from destocking to slight accumulation. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [7]. - **Outlook**: The "anti - involution" sentiment is volatile, and the coal price increase supports the cost. The silicon price shows a short - term upward - biased oscillation, but risks of price adjustment due to sentiment decline and supply recovery should be guarded against [8]. Polysilicon - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.2%. The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 3,020 lots, an increase of 240 lots from the previous value. In May, the export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. From January to May, the cumulative export was 9,167.32 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.68%. In May, the import volume was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9%. From January to May, the cumulative import was 10,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42.72%. From January to June, the domestic newly - installed photovoltaic capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107% [8]. - **Main Logic**: Since July, there have been many supply - side news in the silicon industry chain. The price of polysilicon has risen significantly. The southwest production capacity has increased with the arrival of the wet season. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The supply - demand situation still has pressure, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment and policy implementation [11]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy boosts the polysilicon price, but if the policy fails to meet expectations, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis**: On July 24, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 10.52% to 76,680 yuan. The total open interest of the lithium carbonate contract increased by 124,830 lots to 816,142 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 70,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 68,900 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate was 795 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 70,000 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. The warehouse receipts increased by 900 tons to 11,654 tons [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand drive is weakening, and the price is affected by market sentiment. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the warehouse receipt inventory has been rapidly decreasing. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the price is likely to rise [12]. - **Outlook**: Short - term warehouse receipts and market sentiment support the price, and it is expected to maintain an upward - biased oscillation [12].

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures mostly rose, with the black sector leading the gains - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250725 [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the potential new Fed Chair's stance may affect interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies are expected to be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy - driven growth, especially in Q4. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak - dollar trend is expected [7]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence improved in June, leading to a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate for interest - rate cuts, with nominations expected between Oct - Dec 2025. US tariff policies may be finalized on Aug 1 and 12, with uncertainties remaining [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June exports rose 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure investment. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for policies to boost domestic demand, with more incremental policies likely in Q4 [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. A long - term weak - dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [7] 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: There is no need to overly worry about market adjustments, with expectations of incremental funds. The short - term outlook is for a volatile upward trend [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Volatility is increasing, but market sentiment remains positive. However, option liquidity is deteriorating, and the short - term is expected to be volatile [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is weak. Key factors include unexpected tariff policies, supply, and monetary easing. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase. Key factors include Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policy. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Shipping - For container shipping on the Europe route, attention is on the balance between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. Key factors are tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is cooling, and price increases are slowing. Key factors include the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, and overseas mine production. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coke**: The second round of price increases has been fully implemented, and price increases are moderating. Key factors are steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Coking Coal**: There are strong expectations for anti - cut - throat competition policies, and prices continue to rise. Key factors are steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: An anti - cut - throat competition plan for non - ferrous metals is about to be introduced, providing support for copper prices. Key factors are supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and demand recovery. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum Oxide**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and prices are adjusting at high levels. Key factors are slower - than - expected ore production resumption, faster - than - expected electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] - **Aluminum**: The boost in sentiment is weakening, and prices are falling. Key factors are macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand shortfalls. The short - term outlook is volatile [9] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, and geopolitical factors are key. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, and prices follow the cost side. The short - term outlook is volatile [11] - **Asphalt**: Main - producer spot prices are falling, and futures prices are adjusting due to high valuations. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on prices. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are following crude - oil prices and weakening. Key factors are crude - oil and natural - gas prices. The short - term outlook is downward [11] Agriculture - **Pig**: Market sentiment is cooling, with near - term prices weak and far - term prices strong. Key factors are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and prices are oscillating at high levels. Key factors are weather in production areas, raw - material prices, and macro changes. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is in an adjustment phase. Key factor is significant crude - oil price fluctuations. The short - term outlook is for a volatile increase [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating [5] | | Protein Meal | Oscillating [5] | | Corn/Starch | Oscillating [6][7] | | Live Pigs | Oscillating Strongly [7] | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating [8] | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating [11] | | Cotton | Oscillating [11] | | Sugar | Oscillating Weakly in the Long - Term, Oscillating in the Short - Term [13] | | Pulp | Oscillating Strongly [14][15] | | Logs | Oscillating Weakly [16] | 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. It also evaluates the impact of policies, weather, and other factors on these products. Overall, the market shows a mixed trend with some products expected to be strong, some to oscillate, and some to be weak in different time frames [1][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, it oscillated and diverged, with a strong production increase expectation for Malaysian palm oil in July. International data shows a production increase in Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 20, while exports decreased. The market is influenced by factors such as US soybean weather, trade agreements, and biodiesel demand [5]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices lagged behind the futures, and the market fluctuated more. Internationally, US soybeans are expected to oscillate due to mixed factors. Domestically, there is a short - term adjustment risk, but it is expected to be strong in the long run [5]. - **Corn/Starch**: Affected by the market atmosphere, both futures and spot prices oscillated strongly. Supply may tighten in July - August, but demand is weak due to low livestock and poultry breeding profits and losses in the deep - processing industry [6][7]. - **Live Pigs**: Driven by anti - involution sentiment, far - month futures rose. Supply is under pressure in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand and inventory show some changes. The market is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term with policy influence [1][7]. - **Natural Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment persists, and rubber prices oscillate at a high level. The rubber market is affected by the overall commodity market sentiment, with short - term supply limited and demand relatively stable [8][9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market has entered an adjustment stage. Although it was affected by the overall commodity market adjustment, the price center may rise slightly in the short - term [11]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices oscillated strongly. In the short - term, low inventory supports prices, but upward momentum may be insufficient. In the medium - term, prices may be under pressure due to expected increased production [11]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices continued to rebound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure. In the long - term, prices are expected to be weak due to expected supply increase, while in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [13]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - environment, it is recommended to go long. Although there are supply pressures in the medium - term, the macro - environment remains favorable [14][15]. - **Logs**: The market adjusted downward as the overall market adjusted. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market is expected to maintain a supply - demand weak pattern in the medium - term [16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report provides data on various agricultural products, including prices, production, inventory, and other aspects, to help analyze the market trends of these products [20][52][82][108][121][142][160]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines different rating standards, such as "strongly bullish", "oscillating strongly", "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "weakly bearish", along with the corresponding expected price change ranges and time periods [174].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷情绪炒作缓解，市场关注点有望重回 消费 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 张远 从业资格号：F03147334 投资咨询号：Z0022750 铜观点：有⾊稳增⻓⽅案即将出台，铜价获得⽀撑。 氧化铝观点：盘⾯情绪反复，氧化铝⾼位调整。 铝观点：情绪提振趋缓，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：宏观情绪仍存，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：供需偏宽松，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：反内卷交易趋缓，短期镍价宽幅震荡运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格⼩幅回升，不锈钢盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：LME库存继续 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. For specific products: The investment outlook for stock index futures is "volatile and bullish"; for stock index options, it is "volatile"; for treasury bond futures, it is "volatile and cautious" [6]. Core Viewpoints - The stock market should be treated positively. There's no need to overly worry about the market adjustment. The policy is being implemented, there is potential for unentered funds to enter, and global stock market sentiment is positive. The bond market sentiment remains weak, with many short - term negative factors, especially for the long - end [1][6][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index failed to hold above 3600 points, and the CSI 2000 Index pulled back nearly 1%. The adjustment was due to factors like large profit - taking and limited imagination for certain sectors. However, it's not the start of a market downturn. Policy is being implemented, unentered funds will enter, and global stock markets are positive. The operation suggestion is to hold positions, specifically the IM contract [1][6]. Stock Index Options - Yesterday, the option market turnover was 8.96 billion yuan, a 27.48% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of call options increased, and both buyers and sellers did not price in many negative factors. They saw the intraday pullback as a chance to bet on an up - move. The short - term strategy is to set up a bull spread, and the medium - term is to maintain a covered call strategy and add positions during the volatility increase [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Yesterday, treasury bond futures closed down. The bond market sentiment is weak due to the rising risk appetite in the market and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The afternoon stock market adjustment may have boosted the bond market, but the bullish sentiment is unstable. The capital cost increased, and the bond market should be treated with caution, especially the long - end. Attention should be paid to long - end short - hedging operations and the signals from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7][8]. 2. Economic Calendar - On July 21, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. China's June全社会用电量 annual rate was 5.4%, higher than the previous value of 4.4% [10]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - **Food Delivery**: Shanghai market regulators interviewed food delivery platforms. The platforms have implemented three rectifications. The new Anti - Unfair Competition Law will be implemented on October 15, and the Shanghai market regulator has carried out legal publicity [10]. - **Anti - Involution**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit, margin, and trading fees for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures contracts from July 25, 2025 [11]. - **Artificial Intelligence**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange conducted a special research on Shanghai's "Model Speed Space" and held a symposium on Shanghai's artificial intelligence industry chain enterprises [11]. - **Stablecoins**: The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority wrote about stablecoins, emphasizing the need to strengthen the discussion and implement the Stablecoin Ordinance [11]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data summaries are not provided in the content [12][16][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the candidate for the new Fed chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the implementation of tariffs in early August. The domestic second - quarter economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. - The stagflation trading overseas is cooling down, and the long - short allocation ideas are differentiating. The financial sector maintains a pattern of strong stocks and weak bonds. Precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments due to rising risk appetite. The shipping sector is seeing a decline in sentiment. The black building materials sector is strongly rising due to favorable supply - demand factors. The non - ferrous and new materials sector is rebounding from a decline. The energy - chemical sector is expected to be dragged down by crude oil and show a weak oscillation. The agricultural sector is experiencing a rapid rise in funds and sentiment [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data. The candidates for the new Fed chair generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected from October to December 2025. Tariff policies may be implemented by August 1st and 12th, with uncertainties remaining [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export volume increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than market expectations. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies around the end - of - month Politburo meeting. Currently, growth - stabilizing policies mainly focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak - dollar pattern continues. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro: Overseas Stagflation Trading Cooling** - **Domestic**: Appropriate reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts, and implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - **Overseas**: The inflation - expectation structure is flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling down [7]. **Financial: Continued Strong Stocks and Weak Bonds** - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index continues to reach new highs, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, but concerns about insufficient incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: High intraday volatility drives short - term trading, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, but concerns about deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw effect continues, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [7]. **Precious Metals: Rising Risk Appetite, Short - Term Adjustment** - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. **Shipping: Declining Sentiment, Focus on June Loading Rate** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials: Favorable Supply - Demand, Strong Rise** - **Steel Products**: Positive news drives the market, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about special - bond issuance progress, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by coal - coke news, prices rise slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Market sentiment is high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Positive news triggers a sharp rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Driven by the coking - coal futures limit - up, prices rise significantly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about raw - material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The black chain performs strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Rising sentiment drives prices to the limit - up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures price increases drive spot prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about soda - ash inventory [7]. **Non - Ferrous and New Materials: Tariff Game vs. Policy Stimulus** - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US copper tariffs pressures prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and weak domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The impact of warrant registration needs to be observed, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected slowdown in ore复产, unexpected increase in electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory accumulation shows fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black series boosts prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline, and concerns about macro - turning risks and unexpected increase in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Supported by cost and with inventory accumulation, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: The long - term trend is oscillatory decline after the opening of the LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by weak nickel - iron prices, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong supply - demand fundamentals, prices have a strong bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the复产 expectation in Wa State and demand improvement [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by supply - side speculation, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. **Energy - Chemical: OPEC+ Over - Production, Crude Oil Drag** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are under pressure at high levels, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations [9]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation remains loose, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices of major producers decline, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about unexpected demand [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices are under great downward pressure, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Prices follow crude oil and weaken oscillatory, with a short - term judgment of decline, and concerns about crude - oil and natural - gas prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Boosted by coal in the short term, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply - demand cannot provide strong support, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about export - policy trends and elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply and demand both decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the return of overseas devices [9]. - **PX**: Supported by crude - oil costs and affected by unexpected device disruptions, prices fluctuate with costs, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about device recovery and new PTA capacity investment [9]. - **PTA**: Supply increases while demand decreases, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about the production - cut rhythm of filament factories and the commissioning of Sanfangxiang [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The upstream cost rebounds, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about terminal textile and clothing exports [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: Device production cuts are implemented, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about future bottle - chip operation [9]. - **Propylene**: After a strong debut, prices may oscillate in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: Driven by multiple factors, prices oscillate upward, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: Boosted by multiple factors, prices oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment improves, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Sentiment warms up again, with a short - term judgment of cautious optimism, and concerns about expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: With strong expectations and weak reality, prices have a weak rebound, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about market sentiment, operation, and demand [9]. **Agriculture: Capital Sentiment Boosts Prices** - **Oils and Fats**: Prices oscillate and diverge, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand data [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Spot prices do not rise as much as futures, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot prices oscillate strongly at low arrivals, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about insufficient demand, macro - situation, and weather [9]. - **Pig**: Driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, far - month contracts rise, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Market bullish sentiment remains, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices follow the overall commodity trend, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about significant crude - oil price fluctuations [9]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the macro - situation, it is recommended for long - position allocation, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise, and concerns about macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Supported by low inventory, prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about demand and output [9]. - **Sugar**: Rising imports increase upward resistance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation, and concerns about abnormal weather [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "Oscillating", some as "Oscillating Strongly". For example, steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are in the "Oscillating" category, and the specific ratings are based on the expected price fluctuations within the next 2 - 12 weeks [9][13][14]. 2. Core View of the Report - Overall, there are continuous macro - level positive factors. The continuous rally in the market has spurred mid - stream players such as those in the futures - cash business to build positions, creating a positive feedback loop in the industry chain. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, which was in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the pig iron output of steel enterprises rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. With frequent positive news and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - The news of coal mine over - production inspections was confirmed to be basically true. The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coal industry has deepened. Although some coal mines are resuming production, domestic coal supply is still affected. The Sino - Mongolian border ports have fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. Two rounds of coke price increases have been implemented, but coke enterprises' profits are still around the break - even point. Coke supply has tightened, while downstream steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke inventories of coke enterprises are continuously decreasing. It is expected that the short - term futures will oscillate strongly [3]. Alloys Manganese Silicon - With coke entering the price increase cycle, the cost support for manganese silicon is strengthened. The market sentiment is warm, port miners are actively supporting prices, and manganese ore prices are firm. On the supply side, the daily output of manganese silicon has been increasing for 8 consecutive weeks, and manufacturers' profitability has improved significantly. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, and the downstream demand for manganese silicon remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector [3][7]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price was weak. In the future, the production level of silicon iron is expected to increase, and the downstream steel - making demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship of silicon iron is healthy, and the short - term futures price is expected to follow the sector [7]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, and the deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Although the sales volume was good at the beginning of the week due to downstream restocking, its sustainability is uncertain. On the supply side, there are still 2 production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the rhythm and intensity of policy introduction. If policies continue to exceed expectations, there may be a wave of restocking and price increases. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the view of oscillation is maintained [7]. Soda Ash - The long - term oversupply situation of soda ash is difficult to change. In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up the futures price, but it still faces the problem of oversupply after the positive feedback. Currently, the upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory [7]. Specific Varieties Steel - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the upward trend of the futures price has slowed down. The expectation of stable growth in key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of a hydropower project has also brought positive expectations. After the continuous rise in the market, the macro - sentiment has cooled, and the spot price increase has slowed. In the off - season, the fundamental contradictions of steel are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials and lingering macro - sentiment, the futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Future focus should be on policy implementation and off - season demand [9]. Iron Ore - The small - sample pig iron output remained stable, and the ore price slightly decreased. The spot market quotation decreased, and port transactions dropped significantly. Fundamentally, overseas mine shipments increased on a week - on - week basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased. The profitability rate of steel enterprises slightly increased, and the small - sample pig iron output of steel enterprises remained stable at a high level year - on - year. Iron ore port inventories remained stable, the number of congested ships decreased, and steel mill inventories slightly increased, with total inventories slightly decreasing. The futures price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but further upward movement requires new driving factors [9]. Scrap Steel - The arrival volume of scrap steel has been low, and the spot price has slightly increased. The fundamentals of scrap steel have deteriorated marginally, but the contradictions are not prominent due to low inventories. On the supply side, the arrival volume this week decreased, and resources are tight. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills slightly decreased, but the profits of electric furnaces have improved, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has increased significantly. The inventory of scrap steel has slightly increased. The price of scrap steel is expected to follow the sector [10]. Coke - The second - round price increase of coke has been fully implemented, and the upward trend of the futures price has converged. The supply of coke has tightened, while the demand is strong, and the inventory of coke enterprises is continuously decreasing. The supply - demand structure is tight, and there is still an expectation of price increases. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [13]. Coking Coal - The market's expectation of "anti - involution" in the coking coal industry is strong, and the upward trend of the futures price continues. The domestic coal supply recovery is slow, and the import volume from Mongolia is high. The demand for coking coal is strong, and the coal mine inventory has decreased significantly. Although the actual impact of over - production inspections on the fundamentals is small, the market sentiment is hyped, and there is still upward space in the short term [13][14]. Glass - The downstream restocking continues, and the spot sales have improved. The demand in the off - season is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is also strong. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the policy, and in the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, maintaining an oscillating view [14]. Soda Ash - The upstream inventory is being transferred, and the delivery warehouses are starting to accumulate inventory. The long - term oversupply situation remains, and although there are short - term factors driving up the price, the price is expected to decline in the long term to promote capacity reduction [15][16]. Manganese Silicon - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The cost is supported, the supply is increasing, and the demand remains resilient. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price will face pressure [17]. Silicon Iron - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the silicon iron futures price has weakened. The production level is expected to increase, and the downstream demand remains resilient. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector, and in the long term, the supply - demand gap will gradually narrow, and the price lacks a continuous upward driving force [18].