1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly data shows that crude oil and oil products are mainly in a state of inventory accumulation. The single - week data is slightly bearish as the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products has increased seasonally at a high level [2][4] 3. Summary According to Related Data Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 405,000 barrels in the week ending December 19, 2025, compared with a decrease of 1.274 million barrels in the previous period [4][6] - US Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 707,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 742,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 800,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 249,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - US gasoline inventory increased by 2.862 million barrels, compared with an increase of 4.808 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US diesel inventory increased by 202,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.712 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US jet fuel inventory increased by 1.316 million barrels, compared with an increase of 1.007 million barrels in the previous period [6] - US fuel oil inventory increased by 853,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 450,000 barrels in the previous period [6] - The inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 2.139 million barrels [6] Production and Consumption Data - US crude oil production was estimated to be 13.825 million barrels per day, a slight decrease of 18,000 barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - US refined oil apparent demand was 20.31 million barrels per day, compared with 20.573 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.942 million barrels per day, compared with 9.078 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.156 million barrels per day, compared with 3.786 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 6.086 million barrels per day, compared with 6.525 million barrels per day in the previous period [6] - US crude oil exports were 3.616 million barrels per day, compared with 4.664 million barrels per day in the previous period. The net export of crude oil decreased by 609,000 barrels per day [4][6] - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.776 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.12 million barrels per day from the previous period [4][6] - The US refinery utilization rate fell slightly from the high point to 94.6%, compared with 94.8% in the previous period [4][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The chemical industry is in an overall oscillatory pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the situation in Venezuela continue to disturb the crude oil market. Although China's crude oil imports are at a record high and there are expectations of improved demand, the supply - surplus pattern in the crude oil market still exerts downward pressure. Most chemical products are in a state of oscillation due to factors like high inventory of liquid chemicals and the weak - reality and strong - expectation situation in some regions [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - The chemical industry as a whole is oscillating. The inventory of most liquid chemicals increased on Monday, especially pure benzene. The 05 main contract is far from the delivery time, and the weak spot supply - demand situation has limited immediate negative impact on the futures price. High crude oil imports in China and good refined oil profits may lead to high refinery operation before and after the Spring Festival, which is a concern for the chemical industry [2]. 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela continue to disturb, and oil prices continue to oscillate. - **Main Logic**: The postponed EIA data shows inventory accumulation in US crude oil and refined products. Although the global crude oil inventory pressure has weakened in the past two weeks, the subsequent inventory accumulation expectation is still strong. Geopolitical factors are the core of supply expectations, but there is a lack of marginal drivers for both long and short positions. - **Outlook**: There is still significant downward pressure in the next quarter under the supply - surplus situation, but short - term geopolitical disturbances make the decline unsmooth, so it is regarded as oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Asphalt futures prices rise following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + increased production in December, and the expectation of raw material supply interruption drives the rise. However, the supply - demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and the high - valuation is being adjusted. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated [8]. 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Although there are expectations of heavy - oil shortage, the demand outlook is suppressed by high - floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the substitution of fuel - oil power generation by other energy sources. In addition, the refinery processing demand is weak in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [8]. 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It has a supply - increase and demand - decline trend, but the current valuation is low and it follows the movement of crude oil. - **Outlook**: It follows the fluctuation of crude oil [10]. 3.2.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: The monthly spread weakens ahead of the price, and the short - term price adjusts downward. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are consolidating, and some long - position funds take profits before the holiday. There are also expectations of increased supply due to the expansion of PX production benefits. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is expected to adjust downward. Pay attention to the support around 7000 - 7100 [11]. 3.2.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: It follows the cost to adjust downward in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream PX adjusts downward, and although the supply - demand pattern changes little, the supply pressure will gradually return with the restart of some devices. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to adjust and oscillate, and the processing fee runs within a range [11]. 3.2.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality still suppresses, and the market oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The spot price is slightly supported by downstream export orders and high overseas prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the price increase. The far - month contract has the expectation of supply - demand improvement. - **Outlook**: The inventory - accumulation pressure is being realized, and the trading is mainly based on reality [14]. 3.2.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Short - term sentiment dominates the market, and attention is paid to the sustainability of export transactions. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is weak, but there are positive factors such as export expectations and the impact of device maintenance. However, there is a possibility of negative feedback from downstream devices. - **Outlook**: It is about to turn to inventory accumulation, and the export transactions stimulate the rebound periodically [16]. 3.2.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually realized, and the driving force is general. - **Main Logic**: The price is in a narrow - range consolidation, with continuous inventory accumulation and slow reduction in domestic supply. Overseas imports are expected to decrease in February, and domestic supply will be alleviated in March. - **Outlook**: The short - term price is in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure limits the rebound height [18]. 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The adjustment range is limited, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost adjusts downward, but the adjustment range of short - fiber is limited. Due to the off - season, the sales are average. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to adjust, and the processing fee stops falling in the short term [20]. 3.2.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: It follows the upstream cost to adjust downward. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures decline, and the price of bottle chips follows. The trading atmosphere is weak, and the fundamentals are slightly weak. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw material, and the processing fee is under some pressure [21]. 3.2.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The weak reality in coastal areas contrasts with the strong expectation, and inland areas offer discounts before the festival. Methanol is generally regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: There is a significant difference between coastal and inland areas. Inland prices decline due to pre - holiday sales pressure, while coastal areas have the expectation of reduced imports. - **Outlook**: The trading logic in coastal areas dominates in the short term, and it is regarded as oscillatory [23]. 3.2.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: There is no new positive news, and urea is weakly consolidating. - **Main Logic**: The daily production is high, and there is no new positive news in demand, especially in exports. The market is in a stalemate. - **Outlook**: There is supply pressure in the long term and no new positive news in demand. It may decline slightly [24]. 3.2.14 LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival, and LLDPE is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: The oil price oscillates, and LLDPE's own fundamentals have some support, but the demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [25]. 3.2.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: The basis support is limited, and PP is regarded as oscillatory. - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, the oil price oscillates, and the demand is in the off - season with high inventory pressure. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [26]. 3.2.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by the expectation of PDH maintenance, PL oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of PDH maintenance has a boosting effect, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: It oscillates in the short term [27]. 3.2.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: The market sentiment weakens, and PVC declines. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors have a certain impact, and although the supply - demand expectation improves, the high - inventory pressure still exists. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment fades, and PVC may oscillate [28]. 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak expectation, caustic soda is in an oscillatory state. - **Main Logic**: Macro - level factors affect the market, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply. - **Outlook**: The market sentiment affects the market, and it may oscillate due to low valuation [30]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.42 with a change of 0.02, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 66 with a change of - 24 [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Different varieties have different basis and warehouse - receipt data, such as asphalt's basis being - 88 with a change of - 13 and a warehouse receipt of 20840 [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 233 with a change of - 21 [35]. 3.3.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report only mentions the names of various varieties for basis and spread monitoring but does not provide specific data and analysis. 3.4 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of commodities is 2339.89, down 0.59%; the 20 - commodity index is 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial - product index is 2258.87, down 0.70% [279]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 29, 2025, is 1088.67, with a daily decline of 1.40%, a 5 - day decline of 0.99%, a 1 - month decline of 4.21%, and a year - to - date decline of 11.34% [281].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - In the stock index futures market, the Shanghai Composite Index narrowly achieved a nine - day consecutive gain, with sentiment returning to rationality. There are four signs of cooling sentiment, and it's expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year. Hold long positions and wait for opportunities to increase positions after New Year's Day, with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, and large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, it is mainly recommended to use covered strategies for defense. The trading volume of each option variety has declined, and the implied volatility has fluctuated strongly. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management is more stable [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, there are disturbances from supply expectations. Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure. The central bank's net injection of funds and supply expectations have affected the market. The central bank is friendly to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be more cautious [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell on Monday, with trading volume slightly shrinking. There are four signs of cooling sentiment: the ETF impulse has temporarily ended, market hotspots have shrunk rapidly, the positions of IF, IC, and IM have decreased, and the continuous bullish trend of precious metal commodities has ended. It is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year, and it is recommended to hold long positions and wait for post - holiday opportunities, with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, and large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The operation suggestion is to hold dividend ETFs and IC long positions [1][6]. Stock Index Options - The equity market was volatile and differentiated yesterday, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.04%. The trading volume of each option variety declined, and the implied volatility fluctuated strongly but showed an overall upward trend. It is speculated that the proportion of directional trend traders has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management is more stable. It is recommended to continue to hold short - option strategies for defense and enhancement. The operation suggestion is a covered strategy [2][6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board yesterday, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.91%, the 10 - year main contract down 0.28%, the 5 - year main contract down 0.18%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.07%. The yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and the bond market sentiment was under pressure. The central bank's net injection of 415 billion yuan was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The market is worried about the supply of ultra - long bonds. The central bank is friendly to the short - end, while the long - end needs to be more cautious. Operation suggestions include a trend strategy of range - bound trading, paying attention to short - hedging at low basis levels, paying attention to basis widening, and expecting the yield curve to remain steep [3][7][9]. Economic Calendar - There are economic data release schedules for the US, China, and Europe from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including indicators such as the Chicago PMI, official manufacturing PMI, initial jobless claims, and M3 money supply growth rate [11]. Important Information and News Tracking - **China Macro**: From January to November, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 75,625.76 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3,719.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5,280.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2% [11]. - **Regulatory Policy**: The Tariff Commission of the State Council issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented on January 1, 2026. It reduces import tariffs on some key components, advanced materials, resource - based commodities, and medical products, and cancels the import provisional tax rates on some commodities [12]. - **Media Services**: Sixteen departments in Shanghai issued measures to further expand service consumption, including promoting the "IP +" model and supporting the use of IP resources to drive consumption [12]. - **Insurance**: The China Banking and Insurance Asset Management Association issued a data classification and grading guide for the insurance asset management industry, which will be implemented on January 1, 2026 [13]. - **Automobile**: In November, the price change index of the sedan market was - 8.16, and the market transaction price was 122,600 yuan. The overall transaction price increased by 5,266 yuan compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.49%. The transaction prices of all sub - markets increased, with the B - level market having a relatively large increase [13]. Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the given content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the given content

需期货有限公司 C Futures Comnany Limited 2025年12月30日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 （1）12月29日国产矿价格为509元/吨，环比0元/吨；29日几内亚进口矿 （1）12月28日SM A00均价22490元/吨，环比+40元/吨，升旧水为于200 （1）12月29日保太地03:价格为21900元/吨，环比"200元/吨; 价格66美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 12月29日现货价格指数为2703元/吨,环比-5元/吨; (3) 12月29日期货库存158419吨,环比-2410吨; (4) 12月29日进口盈亏为-26元/吨,环比-5元/吨; 二、电解铝 元/吨,环比-10元/吨; 三、铝合金 (2) 12月29日生铝精废价差为2039元/吨,环比+255元/吨;29日型材铝 精废价差3006元/吨,环比+362元/吨; (3) 12月29日期货库存为71002吨,环比+571吨; (4) 12月29日进口盈亏为323元/吨,环比+16元/吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 - 2024 120 110 100 01/02 01/30 02/28 03/27 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-30 流动性与定价约束显现，⾦银⾼位回调 贵⾦属整体维持强势，但内部结构明显分化。⻩⾦在降息预期、美元偏弱 与地缘不确定性⽀撑下，⾼位运⾏更偏稳态，短期以震荡消化前期涨幅为 主；⽩银在供需偏紧与⼯业需求逻辑未变的背景下仍具中期⽀撑，但前期 抛物线式上涨已显著透⽀流动性与⻛险承受能⼒，⾼波动与阶段性回调成 为⾼位运⾏的主要特征。 重点资讯： 1）中国将对数字人民币计付利息。央行明确自2026年1月1日起，银 行需对实名数字人民币钱包余额计息，计息规则遵循存款利率定价自 律机制，赋予其与商业银行存款相同的法律地位，以推动使用普及。 2）中国斡旋下柬泰停火进程取得阶段性共识。中国、泰国、柬埔寨 三国外长会晤后一致同意循序渐进巩固停火局面，推进重建互信与人 道合作，区域地缘风险边际缓和。 3）特朗普与泽连斯基会谈未形成实质性突破。尽管美乌双方称在安 全保障与和平框架部分内容上取得进展，但顿巴斯等核心问题仍待解 决，俄乌局势不确定性短期难以消退。 价格逻辑： 黄金的核心驱动仍在于全球货币宽松预期、实际利率中枢下移以及美 元信用 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - On December 29, platinum and palladium prices hit the daily limit down at the end of the session. The closing price of the GFEX platinum主力 contract was 634.35 yuan/gram, a 10% decline, and that of the palladium主力 contract was 494.1 yuan/gram, also a 10% decline [2]. - Due to pre - holiday sentiment weakening and capital profit - taking, platinum and palladium prices have significantly corrected, and continued vigilance against large - scale price fluctuations is required [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - **Main Logic**: After the correction, the domestic - foreign price difference of platinum has narrowed. As of the close on December 29, the GFEX platinum主力 contract had a premium of 39.13 yuan/gram over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) at the domestic closing time, still higher than the import cost, indicating an arbitrage opportunity and a tendency for the price difference to converge in the future. However, due to issues such as hedging quota limitations, the short - term price difference may remain high. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with relatively stable demand in the automotive catalyst sector, the hydrogen energy industry as an important future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity [3]. - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, price fluctuations have intensified. It is advisable to trade cautiously during the holiday period, or take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [3]. Palladium - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation in Russia is a key factor affecting the supply of palladium. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, leading to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. On the demand side, palladium faces significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is expected to ease, the short - term shortage of spot goods keeps the price firm, and with the Fed re - entering the interest rate - cut cycle, the palladium price has some support at the bottom [4]. - **Outlook**: With the short - term shortage of spot and a favorable macro environment, the palladium price is expected to fluctuate upward. However, in the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach for short - term trading and wait for the price to correct to an appropriate level. It is recommended to hold or temporarily take profits on long - platinum short - palladium and domestic - foreign positive arbitrage positions [4]. Commodity Indexes (December 29, 2025) - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The comprehensive index was 2339.89, a 0.59% decline; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, a 0.42% decline; the industrial products index was 2258.87, a 0.70% decline [49]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On December 29, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for most products is "oscillation", indicating a neutral stance on the short - to - medium - term investment in the black building materials industry [4][9][11][12][14][18][19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy in 2026 remains positive with the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy. In the off - season, steel continues to reduce inventory, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. The futures market shows an oscillatory trend. With steel mills resuming production and the expectation of winter storage replenishment, iron ore prices are strong, while the coal - coke industry chain has increasing inventory, and the fourth round of coke price cuts has started, putting pressure on the futures market [3][4] - In the off - season, the fundamentals have few bright spots. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity. In January, the resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, and there is an expectation of a price increase from the low level for furnace materials [4][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Elements - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments, and there was strong game between upstream and downstream. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. Spot prices are strong, but after the price increase, spot trading is poor [4][9] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have high inventory and slow down replenishment. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum. The leading steel enterprises in East China proposed a price cut of 30 yuan/ton last weekend, and the spot market is expected to follow the price cut [4][11] Carbon Elements - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilizing. After the fourth - round price cut is implemented, the spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the Chinese New Year approaches, the winter storage intensity increases, and the supply pressure will be relieved [4][12] - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally. There is still upward momentum for both futures and spot prices as the overall supply pressure will be alleviated with the improvement of Mongolian coal imports in January [4][13] Alloys - **Silicon Manganese**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose and is expected to become looser with the release of new production capacity in Inner Mongolia. The cost side currently supports the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the medium term [4][5][18] - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both weak. Alloy plants reduce production to match the declining demand. The cost of semi - coke still drags down the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4][5][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Supply is expected to be disrupted, but the inventory of the mid - and downstream is moderately high. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [4][5][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [4][5][17] Steel - Spot market transactions are average. The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the decline in the output of five major steel products has slowed down. The demand is seasonally declining, but there is still support. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the mid - level inventory is still high year - on - year. The cost side shows differentiation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, with attention paid to the pre - holiday replenishment rhythm [9] Commodity Index - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures Commodity Index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial product index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The steel industry chain index on the same day had a daily increase of 0.11%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.02%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.99%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.27% [105][107]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-30 纸浆受资金出入影响，上涨承压后阶段 回落 油脂：盘面窄幅震荡，菜油基差略涨 蛋白粕：美豆出口面临压力，国产大豆拍卖豆粕承压 玉米/淀粉：临近交割，基差回归 生猪：出栏缩量，生猪期现反弹 天然橡胶：商品巨震，胶价小幅回落 合成橡胶：原料调涨，盘面坚挺运行 棉花：棉价减仓回调 白糖：反弹高度有限，下行压力仍存 纸浆：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 双胶纸：市场情绪回暖，双胶偏强运行 原木：交投清淡，盘面震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：上涨承压后阶段回落，纸浆期货走势受资金出入影响 逻辑:期货昨日明显回落，现货端维持成交偏弱格局，当前期货资金主动 走势，期货涨跌与现货变化关系不大。基本面，当前利多驱动有：1、阔 叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价 格上涨仍能向下传导。随着针阔价差的收窄，阔叶浆的进一步强势预期， 一定程度上也支撑了针叶浆以及盘面的底部支撑逻辑。2、浆厂的停产带 来的供应减量预期与浆厂库存偏高形成对冲。3、浆厂实 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic aggregate in Q3 exceeded expectations, but growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, lower than the market expectation of 91.0. The Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious and accommodative approach. Factory orders in the manufacturing sector recovered moderately, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepened [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In November, demand recovery was slow, with consumption and investment under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profits from January to November still showed a slight positive growth, indicating the economy is "stabilizing at a low level" with policy support. There are industry differentiations, with the equipment manufacturing industry leading the growth (+7.2%, some industries with high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerating (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turning positive, and the automobile industry slightly weakening (-0.3%). Profit improvement mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery, and may be constrained in the future if demand fails to pick up and the base increases [6] - **Asset Views**: The macro environment is still favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, but short - term risks need to be watched out for. In the precious metals sector, the risk of volatility in silver increases after a sharp rise, and further corrections are possible. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions, such as copper, aluminum, and tin. Attention should also be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. For the domestic equity sector, a defensive strategy is recommended at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all had negative daily and weekly fluctuations, but different monthly, quarterly, and annual changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily decline of 0.61%, a weekly decline of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, a quarterly decline of 0.17%, and an annual increase of 17.58% [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most Treasury bond futures had negative daily and weekly fluctuations. For example, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decline of 0.07%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, etc [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat, and different currency pairs had various changes. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change in pips, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was flat daily but had other period - specific changes [2] - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese Treasury bond yield, and 10Y US Treasury bond yield had different fluctuations [2] 3.2 Hot Industries - Different industries in the CITIC industry index had different price changes. The comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had positive daily and weekly changes, while the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and power equipment and new energy industries had negative daily and weekly changes [2] 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.52%, while ICE Brent crude oil had a daily decline of 2.44%. NYMEX natural gas had a daily increase of 3.00%, and ICE UK natural gas was flat [2] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, with COMEX gold having an annual increase of 72.85% and COMEX silver having a large annual increase [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: LME copper, zinc, lead, etc. showed different price trends. LME copper had a flat daily price but positive changes over other periods [2] - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products had different price fluctuations. For example, CBOT soybeans had a daily decline of 0.37% [2] 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - Different domestic commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe), precious metals (gold and silver), non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products had various daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes. For example, container shipping to Europe had a daily decline of 0.09%, and gold had a daily decline of 0.90% [3] 3.5 Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: The stock market is waiting for a main line, and the bond market has disturbing factors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to fluctuate [7] - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with silver having greater elasticity [7] - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of voyages in the far - month contracts of container shipping to Europe [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world pressure exists, and the disk performance is under pressure, with most varieties expected to fluctuate [7] - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - level to become clearer, with basic metals in a state of shock and consolidation [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The pattern of strong aromatics and weak olefins remains unchanged, and different chemical varieties have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a state of shock [9] - **Agriculture**: The market is worried about the supply, with different agricultural products having different short - term trends, such as soybean meal leading the near - month contracts to rise [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral (Oscillating) [6] - Polysilicon: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [7] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish (Oscillating Bullish) [11] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday profit - taking by funds, new energy metals experience significant fluctuations. However, the concern about supply disruptions remains, and there are opportunities to buy low after the price of lithium carbonate stops falling. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The supply and demand surplus of lithium carbonate is expected to narrow, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory**: As of December 29, the spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 1.3% month - on - month, with market inventory down 0.5% and factory inventory down 1.8%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 387.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. In November, exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative exports from January to November decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [6]. - **Demand**: In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 75% month - on - month and decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the cumulative installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. In December, the demand from the polysilicon industry was weak, the production of silicone decreased, and the demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry was limited [6]. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are weak, but due to the fluctuations in coal prices and market sentiment, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **Price and Market Information**: In the week of December 29, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock increased by 1.32% week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 30. From January to November 2025, the export volume decreased by 32% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 53% year - on - year. The newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November increased by 33% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was established, and two new brands were added to the polysilicon futures registration [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the long - term, the anti - involution policy may restrict the supply. The demand for polysilicon has been gradually weakening since November. Although the anti - involution policy is expected to continue to ferment and the downstream prices of photovoltaic have stopped falling and stabilized, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating bullish [8][9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Company News**: On December 29, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 8.96%, and the total open interest decreased. The spot price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, and the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate also increased. Several leading cathode material manufacturers announced production line maintenance, which will reduce production in January [10]. - **Supply and Demand Outlook**: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong. Although the maintenance of material factories in January may lead to demand weakening and increased inventory, the price is expected to be oscillating bullish, and the decline is limited, with opportunities to buy low [11]. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70% [53]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 29, 2025, the index was 498.73, with a daily decline of 5.69%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 8.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.94% [55].