Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index returned above 4000 points. The Spring Rally may start earlier, led by institutional funds. The ChiNext and STAR Market, along with the CSI 500 index, are expected to perform well before the Two Sessions [1][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: After the holiday, the underlying market continued the pre - holiday optimism. Option trading volume was stable, and the implied volatility declined. A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance. The central bank's net injection of funds was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The short - end is supported, while the ultra - long - end may face uncertainties [3][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the equity market closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 4000 points. The STAR Market led the gains, and the trading volume reached 2.57 trillion yuan. The CSI 500 index broke through its previous high [1][7]. - **Data**: The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, and the spreads between contracts also changed. The total open interest of each contract increased [7]. - **Outlook**: The Spring Rally may start earlier, and growth - style stocks are expected to lead. It is recommended to hold IC contracts [7]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Market Performance**: The underlying market rose across the board, and the total option trading volume reached 9799 million yuan, up 41.46% from the previous day. The trading ratio of call and put options was stable, and the implied volatility declined [2][7]. - **Strategy**: A covered - call strategy can be continued [2][7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed with a differentiated performance. Most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose, and the spot bond yields showed a differentiated trend [3][7][8]. - **Data**: The trading volume and open interest of T, TF, TS, and TL contracts decreased. The inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis of each contract changed [7][8]. - **Policy Impact**: The central bank's net injection of 253.2 billion yuan was offset by tightened year - end liquidity. The "Two New" policy was issued to support economic growth [3][8]. - **Outlook**: The central bank's attitude is favorable for the short - end, while the ultra - long - end may be affected by interest - rate cut and supply expectations. Trend strategy: range - bound; Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis; Basis strategy: pay attention to basis widening; Curve strategy: the curve may remain steep [7][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data to be released this week include China's December SPGI Services PMI (released, reaching 52), China's December foreign exchange reserves, US December ADP employment change, Eurozone November unemployment rate, Eurozone December economic sentiment index, China's December CPI and PPI annual rates, US December non - farm payrolls change, and US January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Pension**: The long - term assessment of the over 700 billion yuan annuity fund is being promoted, which will encourage long - term investment and attract more medium - and long - term funds into the market [11]. - **Geopolitical**: In the US military action against Venezuela, 32 Cuban citizens died. The Cuban President expressed condolences to the families of the victims [11]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: Not provided in the content - **Stock Index Options Data**: Not provided in the content - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the intensification of geopolitical conflicts and the continuous weakening of US manufacturing PMI data, precious metals prices oscillated upward on the day. Short - term gold is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, while silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's, but the risk of increased volatility should be watched out for [1]. - In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports the upward trend of both gold and silver. The expectation of a mild economic recovery gives silver greater upward elasticity [7][8]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US December ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.3 and the previous value of 48.2. The employment index was 44.9, and the new orders index was 47.7 [2]. - The US launched a military operation against Venezuela on January 3, capturing President Maduro. Venezuela established a committee for Maduro's release [2]. - The air forces of the UK and France carried out a joint air strike on a suspected underground weapons depot of the "Islamic State" in Syria on January 3 [2]. - Trump threatened to raise tariffs on India on January 4 if India does not meet US requirements to curb oil purchases from Russia [2]. - On January 5, the on - the - spot exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar reached a high of 6.977, hitting a new high since mid - May 2023 [3]. Price Logic - **Gold**: Driven by the escalation of geopolitical tensions and weak US manufacturing PMI data, gold prices oscillated upward. Short - term factors to focus on include the situation in Venezuela after the US raid, the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing starting on January 8, the possible "sell - the - fact" risk after the Fed chair nomination, and important US macro data this week. In the annual outlook, gold is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend [4][7]. - **Silver**: Silver's short - term drivers are similar to gold's. However, attention should be paid to the results of the silver survey in the US 232 report in mid - January. The risk of short - term volatility may increase. In the annual outlook, the shrinking of the US dollar credit supports silver, and the expectation of economic recovery gives it greater upward elasticity [8]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2330.50 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2664.63 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2267.44 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1410.29 (+0.00%) [50]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on January 5, 2026, was 3824.25, with a daily increase of 0.00%, a 5 - day decline of 4.66%, a 1 - month increase of 9.71%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, the agriculture sector mainly fluctuated. Different agricultural products showed various trends, including price adjustments, low - level fluctuations, and price increases. Overall, the market was affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, policies, and macro - environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats are undergoing corrective consolidation. Palm oil led the decline in oils and fats futures, with weak fundamental data. The macro - environment and industrial factors have a negative impact on vegetable oil prices. Overall, oils and fats are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on fundamental indicators and policy expectations, and consider staged buying hedging after excessive declines [4] - **Logic**: Geopolitical issues have a weakening impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affects vegetable oil prices negatively. South American soybean production is expected to be high, and domestic soybean supply is relatively sufficient. The palm oil production area is in the off - season, but export demand is weak. Overseas rapeseed production is high, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase, showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [4] 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The expectation of a good harvest in South America is strong, and the two types of meal are fluctuating at a low level. The prices of US soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [5] - **Logic**: Internationally, South American weather is normal, and the market expects a good harvest of South American soybeans. US soybean exports face competition from South American soybeans. Domestically, before the festival, supply and demand are both weak. Oil mills' inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is not strong [5] 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Purchase and sales are gradually recovering, and prices are fluctuating within a range. The overall price is under pressure but also has support, and it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival, with a possible first - decline - then - rise trend [7][9][10] - **Logic**: Affected by the corn auction, the price once rose, but the overall fundamentals have no major contradictions. The launch of policy - based grain sources has a limited negative impact. In different regions, the supply and demand situations vary, and downstream demand and inventory also affect the price [9] 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: After the holiday, the demand drive weakens, and the futures price declines. In the short - term, the price is expected to be weak, and in the long - term, the supply pressure may gradually weaken [10][11] - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the demand after the New Year's Day holiday weakens. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive before April 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease after May 2026 [11] 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Bullish sentiment still exists, and rubber prices are fluctuating at a high level. In the short - term, it can be considered bullish [13][14] - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strong sentiment of commodities, natural rubber has a strong performance. Fundamentally, overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, but the demand side is relatively weak after the price increase [14] 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains a fluctuating trend. In the short - term, there is pressure, and in the medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [15][16] - **Logic**: The expectation of marginal improvement in butadiene fundamentals has become a market consensus. Although the current inventory is increasing, the market expects good prospects, and the downstream industry's demand is also rising [16] 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Cotton prices are rising with increasing positions. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16][18] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, the new cotton is in the peak listing period, but the inventory accumulation is less than expected, and the apparent demand is increasing. Policy - wise, there is an expectation of a reduction in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which drives the price up [16][18] 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Sugar prices fluctuate narrowly and are still under pressure in the medium - term. In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy of selling on rebounds is recommended [18] - **Logic**: Globally and domestically, the sugar supply is increasing. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is decreasing, Thailand's production is delayed, and India's production is growing. In China, the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to increase [18] 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market is dominated by funds and the macro - environment, and pulp futures fluctuate repeatedly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [19] - **Logic**: Fundamentally, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include rising prices of broad - leaf pulp, supply reduction expectations of coniferous pulp mills, and high downstream paper production. Negative factors include difficulties in cost transfer of downstream paper and seasonal decline in demand [19] 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [20][21] - **Logic**: The market trend of double - glue paper has changed from falling to rising. The inventory pressure of paper mills has been relieved, and the supply is expected to be stable. Paper mills' price - increase plans may support the price in the short - term [21] 3.11 Logs - **View**: Supply and demand are both weak, and prices fluctuate narrowly. From January to February, the supply pressure will gradually ease, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [22] - **Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the log market has no obvious upward or downward drive. The supply pressure will be relieved in January and February, and the futures price has support at a certain range. The 03 contract has certain game characteristics [22] 3.12 Commodity Index - On January 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2345.23, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2684.12, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2272.17, up 0.21%. The agricultural product index on January 5, 2026, was 932.85, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 0.05%, a 1 - month increase of 0.07%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.00% [182][184]

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, and tin are worth attention. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there is an expected tightening in supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. The macro - environment of loose liquidity supports copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the supply - demand for copper is expected to tighten [7]. - **Alumina**: Cost support is not very effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The cost support is average, and there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: With optimistic capital sentiment, aluminum prices have risen significantly. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and utilization rates are high, and there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and inventory has increased. In the short term, the positive macro - outlook and expected tightening of supply - demand suggest that aluminum prices will remain in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The cost support from tight scrap aluminum supply is solid. Supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversions. Demand is currently based on rigid needs, and the medium - term demand is expected to improve. With cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to remain in a strong - side oscillation in the short and medium terms [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The import ore TC has not stopped falling, and zinc prices have rebounded with the non - ferrous sector. The macro - outlook may be volatile. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and smelter profits are declining. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc prices may remain in high - level oscillation, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term [15][16]. - **Lead**: With the accumulation of social inventory, lead prices are oscillating with the non - ferrous sector. On the supply side, production has decreased due to environmental protection and other factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders are weak, while automobile battery orders are improving. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. - **Nickel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the market is oscillating. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026. On the supply side, there is pressure. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and the actual quota implementation needs to be monitored [18][20]. - **Stainless Steel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the stainless - steel market has corrected. The cost has some support. Production decreased in December, and there may be a slight increase in January. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate, and Indonesian policy changes need to be tracked [21][22]. - **Tin**: With continued capital games, tin prices are running strongly. Supply risks are high. On the supply side, there are disruptions in various regions, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow due to factors such as the semiconductor industry and new energy. Tin prices are expected to run strongly in an oscillating manner [22][24]. 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: No specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. - **Alumina**: On January 5, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a slight decline in Xinjiang. The alumina warehouse receipts were 156,917 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the SMM AOO average price was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On January 5, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 22,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Zinc**: On January 5, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were reported. As of January 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from December 31, 2025. In 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly [15][16]. - **Lead**: On January 5, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [17]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased slightly. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026 [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 5, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was reported [21]. - **Tin**: On January 5, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, due to continued concerns about supply disruptions, new energy metals may maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern. In the long term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to shrink, and the price center may rise. For lithium ore, although the production capacity is increasing, the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may appear earlier [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Weak supply - demand drivers, silicon prices fluctuate with sentiment. - **Information Analysis**: As of January 5, the spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 in East China were 9,250 yuan/ton, and 421 were 9,650 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The latest domestic industrial silicon social inventory was 557,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. By December 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production was 397,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.2% and a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. The cumulative production from January to December was 4.268 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. In November, the export of industrial silicon was 54,888 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.8% and a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The cumulative export from January to November was 660,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In November, the newly added photovoltaic installed capacity was 22GW, a month - on - month increase of 75% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%. The cumulative newly added installed capacity from January to November was 275GW, a year - on - year increase of 33% [7]. - **Main Logic**: Fundamentally, on the supply side, some silicon plants in the north shut down for maintenance at the end of the year, and the supply pressure from the northwest in January may be slightly relieved. The dry season continues in the southwest, and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan have dropped to a low level. On the demand side, polysilicon is still in the dry season in January, with weak demand for industrial silicon. If polysilicon implements quota production, it is difficult to boost the demand for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises cut production to support prices, and the current production of organic silicon continues to decline, suppressing the demand for industrial silicon. The operating rate of aluminum alloy decreased at the end of the year, with limited boost to the demand for industrial silicon. In terms of inventory, the industry inventory increased slightly last week, and there is still some pressure on the overall inventory. Overall, the supply pressure of industrial silicon has been relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand has weakened simultaneously, and the fundamental situation remains weak [7]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of industrial silicon itself is weak. Considering the repeated coal prices and market sentiment, the price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile [7]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Strong expectation vs. weak reality, polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. - **Information Analysis**: According to the data from the Silicon Industry Association, in the week of January 5, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.32%. On January 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 4,030 lots, unchanged from the previous value. In November, China's polysilicon export volume was about 3,230 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. From January to November 2025, the total export volume was 23,445 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32%. In November, the import volume of polysilicon was about 1,055 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 62%. From January to November 2025, the import volume was 17,178 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. The newly added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to November 2025 was 274.89GW, a year - on - year increase of 33%. The cumulative newly added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December 2024 was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28%. A polysilicon platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added "Jingnuo" brand of Xinjiang Jinnuo New Energy Industry Development Co., Ltd. and "Eastern Hope" brand of Xinjiang Eastern Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. as registered brands for polysilicon futures [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of polysilicon storage has heated up again, and the polysilicon price continues to be highly volatile under the strong expectation and weak reality. In terms of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the dry season, the polysilicon production capacity in the southwest has gradually decreased, and the production in November dropped below 120,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, the constraints of anti - involution policies on polysilicon supply need to be monitored. On the demand side, the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - consumed the demand for installation in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, and the installed capacity further declined from July to September. The domestic installation began to stabilize from October to November. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November [8]. - **Outlook**: Polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile and upward - trending [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Strong market sentiment combined with supply concerns led to a sharp rise in lithium prices at the beginning of the year. - **Information Analysis**: On January 5, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 6.91% to 129,980 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 46,410 lots to 960,951 lots. On January 5, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,500 yuan/ton to 117,000 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) was 1,535 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 0 lots to 20,281 lots. On January 4, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a notice stating that the security situation in Mali is complex and severe, and some Chinese - funded enterprises have lithium ore projects in Mali. On January 4, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", stating that in principle, new beneficiation projects without self - built mines or supporting tailings utilization and disposal facilities will not be approved. On January 5, Guangzhou Tianci announced that it plans to shut down and maintain the 150,000 - ton/year liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line at the Longshan North Base from March 1, 2026, with an expected maintenance time of 20 - 30 days [9][10]. - **Main Logic**: Currently, the demand for lithium carbonate is marginally weakening, but the long - term demand expectation is strong, and the supply remains at a high level. Market sentiment has a significant impact on prices. Several leading material factories are undergoing centralized maintenance in January, which will lead to a decrease in demand and have a negative impact. However, maintenance may affect the order negotiations between material factories and downstream enterprises, which can indirectly test the demand level. Overall, the maintenance of material factories in January will definitely lead to weakening demand and an increased certainty of inventory accumulation. However, against the background of strong capital sentiment and an optimistic long - term outlook, the price is expected to remain in a strong and volatile pattern. In addition, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" issued by the State Council may affect the pace of production capacity release, and geopolitical issues in Mali and South America also pose challenges to supply. In summary, although the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are marginally weakening, the long - term outlook is good, supply disruptions occur frequently, and the price is mainly in a strong and volatile pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand shows a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly in a strong and volatile pattern [10]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content provided for in - depth analysis. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The special index includes the commodity index (2330.50, +0.00%), the commodity 20 index (2664.63, +0.00%), the industrial products index (2267.44, +0.00%), and the PPI commodity index (1410.29, +0.00%). - **Plate Index**: The new energy commodity index on January 5, 2026, had a daily increase of +0.00%, a 5 - day decrease of - 3.61%, a 1 - month increase of +14.05%, and a year - to - date increase of +0.00% [52][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market is continuously affected by geopolitical factors, with oil prices remaining volatile. The overall chemical sector is expected to continue its oscillatory pattern. - Different products in the energy and chemical industry show varying trends. For example, asphalt prices have surged due to political unrest in Venezuela, while low - sulfur fuel oil prices have declined. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and oil prices remain volatile. - **Main Logic**: Global land - based crude oil inventories have declined in the past 4 weeks, but floating storage inventories have risen. US refined product inventories are increasing. OPEC+ has a stable production outlook for Q1, and geopolitical situations in Iran and Venezuela are the key factors affecting supply expectations. - **Outlook**: Short - term volatility is expected due to fluctuating geopolitical premiums. [8] Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: Political unrest in Venezuela has driven up asphalt futures prices. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. Political instability in Venezuela has led to expectations of raw material shortages, driving up asphalt futures prices. However, asphalt supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued. [8][9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Support for fuel oil futures prices is gradually accumulating. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ suspending production increases, energy crisis expectations in Iraq, and tight heavy - oil supply are positive factors. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by other energy sources are long - term negative factors. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are weak. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating downward. - **Main Logic**: Prices follow the trend of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel oil substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but with low valuation, it will fluctuate with crude oil. [11] PX - **Viewpoint**: There is a repeated game between weak terminal demand and strong expectations, and prices are consolidating at a high level. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is insufficient, but the restart of PTA devices in January has increased the direct demand for PX. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to consolidate in a high - level range in the short term, and the profit margin can be maintained. [12] PTA - **Viewpoint**: TA processing fees are at the upper end of the range, and the room for continuous increase is limited. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are weak, cost support is insufficient, and the supply of PTA is increasing while downstream polyester load may decline. - **Outlook**: Prices will oscillate with costs, and processing fees are under pressure. [13][14] Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of inventory pressure is still being realized, with differences in expectations, and trading is mainly based on reality. - **Main Logic**: Spot prices are slightly supported by downstream exports and strong US - dollar prices, but the fundamentals are still weak. There is room for improvement in the far - month supply - demand situation. - **Outlook**: Inventory and demand restrict the upside, and the external market provides short - term support. [15][16] Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Driven by exports and a warm commodity atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is weak, but new export deals and a positive commodity atmosphere are beneficial. However, it is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: There is an obvious upside limit, and exports can stimulate short - term rebounds. [17][18] Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The implementation of polyester production cuts is gradually taking effect, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average. - **Main Logic**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and although overseas device maintenance may reduce imports, the inventory accumulation pattern cannot be reversed. - **Outlook**: Prices will remain in a range in the short term, and the upside is limited due to long - term inventory pressure. [19][21] Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: Weak terminal demand restricts price elasticity. - **Main Logic**: Cost support is strong, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has increased during the holiday. - **Outlook**: Prices are oscillating. [22] Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: There are more device overhauls in January, and the basis is firm. - **Main Logic**: Prices are adjusting downward during the day and rebounding at night. The supply - demand situation is relatively stable, and overhauls in January may improve the situation. - **Outlook**: Prices will follow raw materials, and processing fees have stronger support below. [24] Methanol - **Viewpoint**: Frequent overseas disturbances, methanol is oscillating strongly. - **Main Logic**: The domestic supply - demand situation is weak, but overseas disturbances such as the situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect imports. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation with an upward bias. [27][28] Urea - **Viewpoint**: Post - holiday transactions are active, and urea is stable with an upward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is stable, and demand from compound fertilizer enterprises, commercial storage, and industrial sectors has increased. - **Outlook**: Supply is relatively abundant, and demand may be boosted in the short term, but the upside is limited. [28][29] LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance support is limited, and LLDPE should be viewed as oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, the fundamentals of LLDPE are slightly improved, but demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [31] PP - **Viewpoint**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, downstream demand is in the off - season, and short - term maintenance has increased. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [32] PL - **Viewpoint**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations are positive, but downstream demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation. [33] PVC - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device shutdowns have led to a strong rebound in PVC. - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors may boost sentiment, and overseas device shutdowns and domestic production cost changes are positive for supply. - **Outlook**: Supported by supply improvement expectations, PVC will run strongly. [34] Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. Caustic soda should be viewed with caution and a downward bias. - **Main Logic**: Supply is in excess, demand is weak, and costs are decreasing. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and costs are declining. The downward space is limited. [35] 3.2品种数据监测 3.2.1能化⽇度指标监测 - **跨期价差**: Different varieties show different changes in inter - period spreads. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.34 with a change of 0.02, while that of Dubai is - 0.11 with a change of - 0.19. [37] - **基差和仓单**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties also vary. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 63 with a change of 9, and the warehouse receipts are 24920. [38] - **跨品种价差**: Spreads between different varieties have different trends. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 423 with a change of - 43. [40] 3.2.2化⼯基差及价差监测 No specific data summaries are provided in the text for this part.

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/06 China Futures Daily Note CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: South Korean President Lee Jae-myung embarks on his first state visit to China since taking office. Futures Prices: On Jan 5, equity index futures rose while CG ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 53rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance amounts, and planned issuance amounts of various types of bonds [1][3]. Group 3: Summary by Bond Type New Special-Purpose Bonds - As of December 31, the issuance progress of new special-purpose bonds was 104.4% [3]. - This week, 14.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued, a 12.5 billion yuan increase from the previous week, and 87.4 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3]. - In December, a total of 134.9 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds were issued [4]. New General Bonds - As of December 31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [8]. - This week, 0 yuan of new general bonds were issued, unchanged from the previous week, and 1 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [7]. - In December, a total of 38.4 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued [5]. Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 2.06 billion yuan increase from the previous week, and 11.77 billion yuan is planned to be net - financed next week [9]. - As of December 31, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 103.1% [10]. Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a 178 billion yuan decrease from the previous week, and 395 billion yuan is planned to be net - financed next week [13]. - As of December 31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.2% [14]. Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 157.4 billion yuan decrease from the previous week, and 512.7 billion yuan is planned to be net - financed next week [15]. - As of December 31, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local government bond issuance was 100.4% [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 53rd week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, weekly issuance amounts, and net financing scales of various types of bonds as of December 31, 2025, along with the planned issuance for the next week [3][7][9][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.4% [3] - This week, new special bonds worth 1.45 billion yuan were issued, a 1.25 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 8.74 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [3] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds was 13.49 billion yuan [4] New General Bonds - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [8] - This week, no new general bonds were issued, the same as the previous week, and 100 million yuan is planned to be issued next week [7] - In December, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 3.84 billion yuan [5] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 2.06 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week, and 11.77 billion yuan is planned for next week [9] - As of 12/31, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 103.1% [10] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a 17.8 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 39.5 billion yuan is planned for next week [13] - As of 12/31, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.2% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of government bonds was 1.74 billion yuan, a 15.74 - billion - yuan decrease from the previous week, and 51.27 billion yuan is planned for next week [15] - As of 12/31, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.4% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The implementation of the trade - in policy will continue to boost the terminal demand for chemicals. The prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The OPEC+ will hold a monthly video conference on January 4th to plan the organization's future production, and the market generally expects it to maintain the decision of "suspending the production increase in the first quarter". Geopolitical situations in Venezuela, Russia, and Ukraine are short - term supports for oil prices. The Chinese government has advanced the issuance of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade - in, which will significantly boost styrene [2]. - The supply and demand of the chemical industry have been flat recently, with no major contradictions, and the overall trend will be volatile. The PTA spot processing fee has increased, and the operating enthusiasm of PTA enterprises will rise. The processing fee of downstream polyester filament has dropped to a three - year low, and the industrial chain profit has shifted. The spot liquidity of polyolefin has tightened, and the futures price will move sideways. The rebound of styrene is not optimistic due to the drag of raw material pure benzene and high inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela continue to disrupt the market, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate. API data shows that US crude oil and refined product inventories continued to accumulate in the week of December 26th, and the total inventory of US crude oil and petroleum products is rising against the seasonal trend. The geopolitical prospects in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations. The decline in Venezuela's shipments is not obvious for now, but its crude oil exports are expected to decline later. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions [8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price rises following the increase in crude oil prices. The increase in crude oil prices drives up the asphalt futures price. If there is a substantial supply disruption in the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt price will be strong; otherwise, it may rise and then fall. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory is starting to accumulate [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Be vigilant about the positive support for fuel oil from Iran's suspension of natural gas supply to Iraq. Although there are factors that support the high - sulfur fuel oil price, such as the potential resumption of fuel oil power generation in Iran and Iraq, the demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and there are medium - and long - term double negatives [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price fluctuates [4]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disruptions have emerged again, and combined with capital rotation, the upward trend in the pre - holiday market may continue [4]. - **Urea**: There is concentrated pre - holiday procurement, and urea is expected to be in a consolidation state [4]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The reduction in polyester production is gradually being realized, and the driving force for ethylene glycol is average [4]. - **PX**: The expected supply - demand pattern of PX has weakened, and the price has回调 after rising. International oil prices are strong, providing cost support. However, due to the market's focus on supply increase expectations, the price has回调 after rising, and the terminal has slowed down its procurement rhythm [12]. - **PTA**: The maintenance of polyester plants is gradually being implemented. The supply - demand of PTA has weakened marginally, and the price is expected to fluctuate following the cost in the short term [13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The callback is limited, the processing fee is under pressure, and the willingness to reduce production is increasing. The cost support is strong, but the downstream is in a wait - and - see state, and the processing fee is under pressure [24]. - **Bottle Chip**: It fluctuates following the upstream cost. The price of polyester bottle chips fluctuates following the raw materials, and the short - term driving force is limited [26]. - **Propylene**: The CP price in January has been raised, and the PDH is expected to reduce its operating rate, so the PL has strengthened slightly [4]. - **PP**: The CP price has been raised, and PP has strengthened slightly [4]. - **Plastic**: Both long and short positions are cautious before the holiday, and plastic is expected to fluctuate. Oil prices are fluctuating, and the fundamental support for plastic has increased slightly, but the driving force for both long and short positions is relatively weak [31]. - **Styrene**: The short - term market is dominated by sentiment, and the sustainability of export transactions should be monitored. The cost support from pure benzene is weak, but there are positive factors such as export orders and market sentiment stimulation. However, the supply and demand situation is not optimistic, and the upside is restricted [18]. - **PVC**: Short - sellers take profits before the holiday, and PVC is mainly in a fluctuating state. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand expectation has improved, but the high - inventory pressure still exists [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to fluctuate. The macro - level sentiment boost may be short - term, and the supply - demand is still in a state of oversupply in the short term [36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are given, along with their latest values and changes [41]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists different varieties such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2343.82, up 0.17%; the commodity 20 index is 2683.42, down 0.17%; the industrial products index is 2271.47, up 0.56% [284]. - **Energy Index**: On December 30, 2025, the energy index was 1093.97, with a daily increase of 0.49%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.18%, and a year - to - date decrease of 10.91% [286].