1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 will have a directional impact on short - term oil prices. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Iran and Russia and OPEC+ production expectations in the second quarter are the core concerns of the crude oil market in February. The chemical market is divided under high oil price volatility. [2][3] - For different chemical products, the report provides specific views and outlooks, generally suggesting a volatile trend for the chemical industry, with the movement of the US - Iran relationship disturbing oil prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite talks ended with a prisoner - exchange agreement. The Iranian delegation arrived in Oman for nuclear - issue negotiations with the US. [6] - **Main Logic**: High oil price volatility continues before the US - Iran negotiation. Overseas diesel crack spreads are weak, and refinery margins are under pressure. Russia is increasing discounts on crude oil exports to China, and there are concerns about reduced purchases from India. Geopolitical premiums still exist, and short - term focus is on the US - Iran negotiation and India's oil purchases from Russia. [2][6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The fundamentals are in a supply - surplus state, but geopolitical situations may cause potential disruptions to supply expectations. [6] Asphalt - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the asphalt futures price was 3339 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3270 yuan/ton, 3600 yuan/ton, and 3250 yuan/ton respectively. [6] - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical premium has partially declined. The partial lifting of US sanctions on Venezuela will increase asphalt raw material supply in the long - term. High profits may drive refineries to switch to alternative raw materials. The supply - demand of asphalt is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The current asphalt price is over - valued compared to other products. [6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. [6] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price was 2824 yuan/ton. [6] - **Main Logic**: The US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, which may put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. The tense situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and may increase fuel oil power generation in Iraq. The substitution of natural gas and photovoltaic for fuel oil in the Middle East is a long - term negative factor. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is oscillating at a high level. [6] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term focus is on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [6] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the low - sulfur fuel oil futures price was 3285 yuan/ton. [8] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Natural gas price fluctuations affect it through the crack spread of gasoline and diesel and the expectation of low - sulfur fuel oil power generation. It has strong product attributes but faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low. [8] - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, but its low valuation makes it follow the movement of crude oil. [8] PX - **Market News**: On February 5, the PX CFR China Taiwan price was 902(+5) dollars/ton, and the PX Korea FOB price was 880(+5) dollars/ton. The PX main contract closed at 7200(-96) yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: Although the cost side has some support, the current supply - demand pattern is seasonally weak. Supply remains high, polyester and terminal demand are declining, inventory is accumulating, and the profit is continuously declining. [9] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The PX price is expected to fluctuate, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [300, 330] dollars/ton. [9] PTA - **Market News**: On February 5, the PTA spot price was 5140(+60) yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 5144(-74) yuan/ton. The polyester filament and polyester chip production - sales rates were low. [9] - **Main Logic**: The cost side has some support, but the supply has increased slightly, and the polyester enterprises' maintenance scope has expanded during the Spring Festival. The inventory accumulation is greater than expected, and the terminal demand is insufficient. [9] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The PTA price is expected to be in a low - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to the TA05 - 09 spread and the support at 5100 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract. [9] Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On February 6, the pure benzene 2603 contract closed at 6127, a change of - 1.34%. The spot prices in different regions and the prices of related products have changed. [9] - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have fallen significantly. There is some restocking demand before the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand of styrene is tight. Pure benzene is a low - valued variety and is a choice for capital allocation. Although the current inventory is high, the de - stocking expectation in Q1 exists. [9][10] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly upward. The high inventory needs time to be digested, but the fundamentals are improving, and the de - stocking expectation in the far - month exists. [10] Styrene - **Market News**: On February 6, the East China styrene spot price was 7829(-106) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 140(-18) yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: The styrene price is volatile and slightly upward. The crude oil price is stable, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken. However, the profit compression caused by seasonal inventory accumulation may be limited due to export support and overseas disturbances. [11] - **Outlook**: Volatile and slightly upward. The seasonal inventory accumulation in February is expected to be lower, and the de - stocking trend will resume in March. [12] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On February 5, the ethylene glycol market was weak. The spot price in Zhangjiagang was around 3630 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 3745 yuan/ton. The inventory in the East China main port increased. [13] - **Main Logic**: The cost side is stable, but the supply has increased in the short - term, and the demand has decreased, resulting in a weak market. [14] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. The price is expected to be in the range of [3700 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract. [16] Short - Fiber - **Market News**: On February 5, the Zhejiang market polyester short - fiber price fell to 6570 yuan/ton. The PF2603 contract closed at 6564 yuan/ton, and the production - sales rate was 60.43%. The inventory decreased slightly. [18] - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber market is in a weak consolidation. The upstream raw material price fluctuations cause pricing contradictions, and the downstream demand is weak, resulting in low market trading activity. [18] - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price follows the upstream, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. [18] Bottle Chip - **Market News**: On February 5, the East China market polyester bottle - chip price was 6250 yuan/ton. The main contract closed at 6114 yuan/ton, and the processing spread was 609.6 yuan/ton. [20] - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester raw materials are adjusted within a range, and the polyester bottle - chip price follows the cost. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened before the Spring Festival. [20] - **Outlook**: The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the long - PR short - TA position. [20] Methanol - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the methanol spot price in Taicang was 2195 yuan/ton, and the port basis was - 30 yuan/ton. The Iranian ZPC 165 - million - ton/year capacity device was restarted at a low load. [22] - **Main Logic**: The methanol price was volatile and slightly downward on February 5. The inland market trading improved, and the inventory decreased. However, the coastal market has high inventory and low downstream MTO device operation. Although the Iran situation is improving, there is still uncertainty. [22] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The methanol price follows the fundamentals and may be slightly downward, but the low price may prompt the restart of some MTO devices. [22] Urea - **Market News**: On February 5, 2026, the urea price in the Shandong market was 1780 - 1790 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1779 yuan/ton. [23] - **Main Logic**: The supply of urea is sufficient as the gas - restricted devices are gradually restarted. The agricultural demand is for pre - festival fertilizer preparation, and the industrial demand is decreasing. The inventory has decreased, and the pre - received orders support the price. [23] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The urea price is expected to be slightly adjusted before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream purchasing, order digestion, and storage release plans. [23] LLDPE - **Market News**: On February 5, the LLDPE spot price was 6750(-20) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 27(+121) yuan/ton. The PE开工 rate was 87.03%(-0.27%). [25] - **Main Logic**: The plastic price was volatile and downward on February 5. Oil prices are volatile, affected by geopolitical factors. The overall commodity sentiment is weak, and the downstream has stopped production before the Spring Festival. The inventory is decreasing, and there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. [25] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [25] PP - **Market News**: On February 5, the PP price in East China was 6630(-30) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 46(+95) yuan/ton. The PP开工 rate was 74.9%(-0.01%). [26] - **Main Logic**: The PP price was volatile and downward on February 5. Oil prices are volatile, affected by geopolitical factors. The commodity market sentiment is weak, and the PP refinery profit is under pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of macro - consumption policy support. [26] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [26] PL - **Market News**: On February 5, the PL price in Shandong was 6410 yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was 205(+148) yuan/ton. [27] - **Main Logic**: The PL price was volatile on February 5. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact. The supply increase is limited, the inventory is controllable, and the downstream demand has increased slightly. [27] - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short - term. [27] PVC - **Market News**: On February 5, the East China PVC price was 4910(-40) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 142(+63) yuan/ton. [28] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors have less impact, and the "export rush" may weaken the demand support. The PVC production has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, the export orders have decreased, and the cost has increased. [28] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The market sentiment is weak, but there are still policy expectations and cost disturbances. [28] Caustic Soda - **Market News**: On February 5, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 1841(-3) yuan/ton, and the main contract basis was - 76(+58) yuan/ton. The liquid chlorine price increased by 50 yuan/ton. [29][30] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors have less impact, and the "dual - carbon" policy may accelerate the elimination of backward caustic soda production capacity. The caustic soda inventory is decreasing before the Spring Festival. The alumina production reduction may be slow, the demand from non - aluminum industries is weak, and the liquid chlorine price is volatile, affecting the cost. [28][29] - **Outlook**: Volatile. The increase in the liquid chlorine price opens the downward space for caustic soda, but considering the possible downward adjustment of the liquid chlorine price before the Spring Festival, the caustic soda price is expected to be volatile. [29] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have changed. For example, the Brent M1 - M2 spread is 0.65(-0.06) dollars/barrel, and the PX 1 - 5 month spread is 8(+36) yuan/ton. [31] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For example, the asphalt basis is - 89(+22) yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt is 40070 tons. [32] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. have changed. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 302(-30) yuan/ton. [33] Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the report lists the monitoring of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overseas macro: Kevin Warsh's nomination as a candidate for the new Fed Chair is expected to have limited impact on the market. His policy stance on quantitative tightening may be difficult to implement. The market's expectations for the US monetary policy path are unlikely to change significantly, and investors should also monitor the US-Iran situation and the US government shutdown [9]. - Domestic macro: The domestic market is expected to continue with positive policy expectations. In Q1, there is a growing expectation that policies will be intensified to achieve a good start for the economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan. The overall policy environment is favorable, which supports a bullish view on risk assets in Q1 [9]. - Asset views: Structured opportunities in portfolio allocation are emphasized. It is recommended to overweight IC and non-ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin). The domestic policy expectations, loose liquidity, and inflation recovery expectations can support the upward movement of the equity market. Treasury bonds are neutral, with better short - end opportunities but limited odds. The precious metals sector has high short - term volatility, and it is recommended to wait for volatility to decline. Non - ferrous metals are relatively strong and can be considered for right - side allocation after a pullback. Black commodities are range - bound, and crude oil has high uncertainty, so it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Performance Data Index Futures and Treasury Bonds - On February 5, 2026, most index futures showed declines, such as the CSI 500 futures with a daily decline of - 1.59% and a weekly decline of - 2.9%. Treasury bond futures generally rose, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures having a daily increase of 0.32% and a weekly increase of 0.22% [2]. Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index rose by 0.27% on February 5, 2026, and the US dollar intermediate price decreased by 25 pips. The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate decreased by 0.95 bp [2]. Interest Rates - The 10Y US Treasury yield increased by 1 bp on February 5, 2026, and the US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread increased by 1 bp [2]. Industry Index - On February 5, 2026, industries such as consumer services, textile and apparel, and food and beverage showed increases, while industries like non - ferrous metals, steel, and machinery showed declines [4]. Domestic Commodities - On February 5, 2026, commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe) and fuel oil showed increases, while precious metals (silver) and non - ferrous metals (nickel) showed significant declines [5]. Overseas Commodities - On February 4, 2026, overseas energy commodities such as NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent crude oil rose, while NYMEX natural gas fell. Precious metals like COMEX gold and COMEX silver also rose [6]. 2. Sector Analysis Financial Sector - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down with shrinking trading volume, and the consumer sector strengthened seasonally. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase [10]. - Stock index options: The implied volatility showed a differentiated trend, indicating a range - bound game sentiment. The short - term outlook is range - bound [10]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the implementation of monetary policy, risk appetite, and government bond issuance [10]. Precious Metals Sector - Gold: Geopolitical tensions eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the US economic fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and geopolitical trends [10]. - Silver: The structural tightness in the spot market eased, and the "Warsh trade" suppressed liquidity expectations. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch are similar to those for gold [10]. Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Spot freight rates were under pressure, and shipping companies cut prices to attract cargo before the festival. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include spot market freight rate changes, geopolitical sentiment, and the risk of price wars among shipping companies [10]. Black Building Materials Sector - Steel products: Cost support weakened, and the futures market was under pressure. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [10]. - Iron ore: Hot metal production increased slightly, and inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term outlook is range - bound, with factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather conditions, port ore inventories, and policy dynamics to be monitored [10]. - Coke: Profits recovered, supply increased, and the demand from hot metal production provided support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include steel mill production, coking costs, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. - Coking coal: Restocking was nearly completed, and the futures and spot markets were range - bound. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include coal mine resumption, Mongolian coal imports, and mid - downstream restocking [10]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Nickel: There was a game between expected policies and weak reality, and nickel prices were range - bound. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [10]. - Tin: Market sentiment was weak, and tin prices continued to adjust. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [10]. - Copper: The US dollar index continued to rise, and copper prices were under short - term pressure. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovish stance of the Fed, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [10]. - Aluminum: Inventories continued to accumulate, and aluminum prices declined. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude oil: Supply pressure remained, and geopolitics dominated the rhythm. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: Chemical demand weakened, and attention should be paid to Iranian risks. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [12]. Agricultural Sector - Natural rubber: Short - term support was still effective. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include production area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes [12]. - Synthetic rubber: The futures market had high elasticity, and attention should be paid to the lower - bound support. The short - term outlook is range - bound, and factors to watch include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [12]. - Cotton: It was range - bound and lacked a unilateral trend before the festival. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound increase, and factors to watch include production and demand [12]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar exports still had potential, and the medium - to - long - term outlook was for a range - bound decline. The short - term outlook is for a range - bound decline, and factors to watch include Brazilian port logistics, lower - than - expected northern hemisphere production, and macroeconomic fluctuations [12].

Group 1: Report's Overall Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core View - Panic sentiment persists, and base metals are under pressure with a volatile trend. In the short term, the negative impact of the sharp drop in silver prices remains, but its marginal effect is weakening. It is advisable to wait and see or cautiously take short - term long positions in copper, aluminum, and tin with strict position control. In the long term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, tin and other varieties are expected to maintain a relatively strong volatile trend [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index continues to rise, putting short - term pressure on copper prices. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the rising US dollar index pressures copper prices. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disturbances increase, TC of copper concentrate spot drops, and the long - term processing fee in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of refined copper supply contraction. On the demand side, terminal demand is weak, and social inventory of refined copper is high [7] Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and the alumina price fluctuates. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly, increasing the expectation of supply contraction as high - cost inland production faces losses. However, in reality, supply contraction is insufficient, and the weakening of raw material prices weakens the price support. The futures price also faces pressure, so it is expected to fluctuate widely [7] Aluminum - **View**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices decline. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, short - term risk appetite decreases, but the long - term macro expectation remains positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is stable, and overseas production is restricted. On the demand side, the initial - stage operating rate drops, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory continues to accumulate. Overall, the positive macro expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to support the price [7][8][9] Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support persists, and the price fluctuates downwards. In the short and long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum remains high, and supply is tight. On the supply side, some manufacturers start the Spring Festival holiday early, and policies may restrict supply. On the demand side, the subsidy for car replacement decreases, and high prices suppress demand. Inventory accumulates. Overall, cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep the price relatively strong [11] Zinc - **View**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market weakens, and zinc prices decline again. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is room for a decline. - **Logic**: Macroscopically, the expectation changes due to Trump's nomination. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and refinery profits decline. On the demand side, domestic consumption enters the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc exports continue, and inventory accumulation pressure is small. In the long term, supply is expected to increase, and demand growth is limited [13] Lead - **View**: The weakening sentiment in the non - ferrous metal market competes with high cost support, and lead prices fluctuate. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium rises, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreases slightly. On the supply side, the production of recycled lead decreases due to environmental protection and profit factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders weaken, but automobile battery orders improve, and the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is still at a relatively high level. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate [18] Nickel - **View**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the overall supply pressure remains high. On the demand side, it enters the traditional off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. Policy - wise, Indonesia's potential policy changes have adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes need to be continuously tracked [20] Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron drops slightly, and the stainless - steel futures market fluctuates. It is expected to be volatile and relatively strong. - **Logic**: The cost side still has some support. The production in December decreased, and the planned production in January may increase slightly. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory accumulates. Overall, the price is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, and the policy changes in Indonesia need to be continuously tracked [21] Tin - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and tin prices continue to adjust. In the long term, it is expected to be volatile and relatively strong, but short - term price volatility risks need to be vigilant. - **Logic**: Supply is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in some areas may be alleviated, while in others, it is still restricted. In the future, supply will be tight, and demand will continue to grow. However, in the short term, the strong US dollar, stable supply, and weakening bullish power may cause price fluctuations [23] Group 4: Market Monitoring Commodity Index - On February 5, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2401.01, down 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, down 0.99%; the industrial product index was 2300.28, down 0.97% [149] Non - ferrous Metal Index - On February 5, 2026, the index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [151]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook for stock index futures is "shockingly strong" [6] - The outlook for stock index options is "shock" [6] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "shock" [7] Core Viewpoints - Stock index futures: The stock market closed down on low volume, and the consumer sector showed seasonal strength. Before the Spring Festival, it is advisable to buy IM long positions at low prices to wait for an opportunity to attack [1][6] - Stock index options: Implied volatility showed a divergent trend, indicating a range - bound trading sentiment. It is recommended to hold a covered strategy to increase returns [2][6] - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. In the short term, arbitrage trading is the main strategy, and attention should be paid to the opportunity for the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds to converge [3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock index futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down on Thursday with further significant volume contraction. Before the Spring Festival, low - level consumer stocks such as film, beauty care, tourism, and food retail strengthened, while sectors like computing power hardware and space photovoltaics declined. AMD's earnings decline in the US stock market affected the A - share computing power chain. Historically, value dividends are dominant before the Spring Festival, and small - cap growth stocks have a high winning rate after the long holiday. It is advisable to hold IM long positions or ChiNext and STAR Market ETFs [6] Stock index options - On Thursday, the underlying assets fluctuated and adjusted, with the large - cap style stronger than the small - cap style. The total trading volume of financial options was 1.039 billion yuan, a 5.2% increase from Wednesday. The implied volatility of different options showed a divergent trend, and sentiment indicators suggested a range - bound trading sentiment. It is recommended to hold a covered strategy [6] Treasury bond futures - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The long - term treasury bond yield declined, and the short - term yield remained flat, making the yield curve flatter. The central bank provided continuous liquidity support, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The bond market may maintain a range - bound pattern before the "Two Sessions". It is recommended to focus on arbitrage opportunities [7] 2. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the sub - items of stock index futures data, stock index option data, and treasury bond futures data, without specific data content, so no further summary is made [9][13][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials sector is "Oscillation" [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market is under pressure. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore are putting pressure on the market, and the futures market is weak. As winter storage is coming to an end, the support for coal and coke replenishment is gradually weakening, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, causing the futures market to fall from its high. The oversupply of glass and soda ash suppresses the futures prices. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The inventory pressure of iron ore continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is expected to be average. The futures market is under pressure, but there are still macro - expectations due to the upcoming Two Sessions after the holiday. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. For example, the port trading volume of iron ore is 98.6(-4.8) million tons, and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port is 772(-2) yuan/ton [2][8][9] - Scrap steel: The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment is approaching the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products. The average price of crushed materials in East China is 2108 (0) yuan/ton, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel in East China is 1079 (-10) yuan/ton [2][10] Carbon Element - Coke: The subsequent growth space of coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price is expected to remain stable, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke price in Rizhao Port is 1480 (0) yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract in the port is -18 (+32) yuan/ton [2][10][13] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the production of domestic coal mines will gradually decline. The fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may oscillate, and the futures market is expected to oscillate widely due to the influence of capital sentiment. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1280 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1230 (0) yuan/ton [2][14] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. The futures price of the main contract of manganese silicon is expected to oscillate around the cost. The ex - factory price of 6517 manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 5650 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Australian ore with 45.0% Mn in Tianjin Port is 41.5 (0) yuan/ton degree [3][17] - Ferrosilicon: The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are limited. Before the festival, the market trading activity is low, and the upward driving force of the futures market is insufficient. The futures price of ferrosilicon is expected to oscillate around the cost. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5300 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingot in Fugu is 16450 (0) yuan/ton [3][18] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (0 yuan/ton), and the national average price is 1106 yuan/ton (0 yuan/ton) [3][15] - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted. The delivered price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1149 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [3][15][16]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-06 恐慌情绪反复，新能源金属剧烈波动 新能源观点：恐慌情绪反复，新能源⾦属剧烈波动 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，恐慌情绪再度 反复，碳酸锂大幅下跌，新能源金属延续高波动；中期来看，政策预 期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格宽幅震荡。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪⾛弱，碳酸锂盘中跌停。 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 王雨欣 ...

万得数据显⽰，⽇内⾦银价格再度下⾏，其中⽩银板块跌势更⼤、跌幅逾 9%；主要受投资者获利抛售、美元指数⾛强及地缘紧张局势趋缓等多重 因素压制。据央视新闻报道，当地时间2⽉4⽇，经多位中东领导⼈紧急游 说，原定于2⽉6⽇举⾏的美伊核谈判计划得以恢复，地缘紧张局势有所缓 和。此外，中国⻩⾦协会指出，2025年我国⻩⾦消费量同⽐下降3. 57%、⽽⻩⾦产量同⽐上升1.09%，对短期⾦价上涨空间形成抑制。近期 亚太股市受美股冲击，市场情绪反复，叠加2⽉5⽇上期所再次宣布上调⾦ 银等期货品种保证⾦并扩⼤涨跌停板，短期⾦银波动⻛险仍较⼤；预计短 线⻩⾦维持宽幅震荡，⽩银波动⻛险尤为突出。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-2-6 ⾦银再度下跌，⽩银波动剧烈 黄金观点：短线维持宽幅震荡走势。 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均下跌超1%，受投资者止盈 抛售、美元指数走强、美伊地缘紧张局势边际缓和等因素压制；中国 黄金协会指出2025年黄金消费量有所下降、而产量增加，亦对短期 上涨空间形成一定压制。2月5日中国黄金协会数据显示，2025年我国 黄金产量381.339吨、 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on non-ferrous metals by CITIC Futures Research, dated February 6, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals sector significantly declined during the session due to the strengthening of the US dollar and hawkish remarks from a Fed governor. As of the close on February 5, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 540.3 yuan/gram, a decline of 7.96%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 442.7 yuan/gram, a decline of 1.97% [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Fed governor Lisa Cook's remarks were a short - term adjustment trigger but did not fundamentally affect the Fed's policy path. The market is in a volatile and wide - ranging consolidation phase. Geopolitical risks, US tariff and sanction expectations provide price support. In the future, South Africa faces power supply and extreme weather risks on the supply side. On the demand side, the platinum market is in a structural expansion, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity in the long - term [3] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro expectations [3] Palladium - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side as the US investigation result on Russian unforged palladium imports is pending and Europe may impose new sanctions. The tight spot market supports prices. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose, short - term spot shortages and Fed rate - cut expectations provide support [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the medium - to - long term due to spot shortages and an improving macro environment [4] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2401.01, a decline of 0.84%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.41, a decline of 0.99%; the industrial products index was 2300.28, a decline of 0.97% on February 5, 2026 [51] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 5, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2696.94, with a daily decline of 1.55%, a 5 - day decline of 5.55%, a 1 - month decline of 2.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.41% [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways [6][7] - Protein meal: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [8] - Corn and starch: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [10][11] - Live pigs: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [12] - Natural rubber: Expected to trade sideways [13][15] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to trade sideways with a strong bias in the medium - term [16][17] - Cotton: Expected to trade sideways with a strong bias [17][18] - Sugar: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [18] - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [19] - Double - gum paper: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [20][21] - Logs: Expected to trade sideways with a strong bias [22] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, price trends, and future outlooks. It points out that different products face different supply - demand situations and market factors, resulting in different price trends and investment opportunities. For example, synthetic rubber has a relatively clear mid - term bullish logic due to the expected tight supply of butadiene, while sugar is expected to be under pressure due to the expected global supply surplus [16][18] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Information: Trump mentioned an increase in China's soybean imports. China has already purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans as of the end of January [6] - Logic: The expected increase in US soybean imports and the progress of Canadian rapeseed procurement lead to an expected supply surplus, causing the oil market to weaken. Different types of oils have different supply situations, such as soybean oil facing a situation of both supply and demand weakening before the Spring Festival, and rapeseed oil having a relatively clear supply increase [6] - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of buying on dips for hedging [7] 3.1.2 Protein Meal - Information: On February 4, 2026, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing decreased [8] - Logic: Internationally, China's potential increase in US soybean purchases drives up US soybean prices, while Brazil's soybean harvest increases sales pressure. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is expected to be under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve marginally [8] - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [8] 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - Information: The Pingcang price of Jinzhou Port increased, and the closing price of the main contract also increased slightly [10] - Logic: Downstream stocking is coming to an end, and the market is trading sideways. There are marginal negative factors, such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of alternative grains and policies [10] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [11] 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Information: On February 5, the national average live pig price and the closing price of the futures contract both decreased [11] - Logic: In the short - term, there is a pressure of concentrated supply as large pigs are about to be slaughtered. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be in surplus until April 2026. In the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026 [12] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling hedging opportunity for the industrial side in the first half of the year, and the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [12] 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Information: The prices of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber in different regions showed different changes [13][15] - Logic: The rubber price followed the decline of the commodity market but showed signs of stabilization near the short - term support level. The current trading logic is mainly affected by the macro environment, and the fundamentals are relatively weak but the expectations are okay [15] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways [15] 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - Information: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in different regions decreased [16] - Logic: The BR disk had a short - term adjustment, but the mid - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has been rising recently [16] - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, and it is expected to trade sideways with a strong bias in the medium - term [17] 3.1.7 Cotton - Information: The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract decreased, and the number of contracts in the 25/26 season increased [17] - Logic: The supply side is coming to the end of processing and inspection, the demand side is entering the holiday period, and the inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to trade in a range, and it may strengthen after the festival [17] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a strong bias in the medium - and long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [18] 3.1.8 Sugar - Information: The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract increased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased but was still higher than the same period last year [18] - Logic: In the medium - and long - term, the sugar price is expected to continue to trade at the bottom. The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply of major producing countries is expected to increase [18] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18] 3.1.9 Pulp - Information: The prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different changes, and the offers of Chilean Arauco Company were announced [19] - Logic: The pulp futures followed the market to weaken. The demand for pulp is decreasing seasonally, and there are more negative factors in the fundamentals, but the increase in the US dollar price of pulp provides some support [19] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways [19] 3.1.10 Double - gum Paper - Information: The daily market prices of double - gum paper in Shandong showed different levels [20] - Logic: The double - gum paper market is running weakly. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the cost support is weakening. There is no clear upward or downward driver before the Spring Festival [21] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a weak bias [21] 3.1.11 Logs - Information: The prices of logs in different regions and the closing price of the main contract are provided [22] - Logic: The log disk first rose and then fell. The suspension of some delivery warehouses affected the market, and the short - term fundamentals are improving marginally, but there are still concerns about future demand and supply [22] - Outlook: Expected to trade sideways with a strong bias in the short - term and trade in a range in the medium - term [22] 3.2 Commodity Index - On February 5, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures decreased by 0.84% to 2401.01, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.99% to 2745.41, and the industrial product index decreased by 0.97% to 2300.28. The agricultural product index decreased by 0.18% on the day, 1.35% in the past 5 days, 1.01% in the past month, and 0.16% since the beginning of the year [181][183]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Platinum is expected to be volatile and bullish due to geopolitical risks and positive macro - expectations [1]. - Palladium is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by tariff expectations and tight spot supply [3]. - In the medium - to - long - term, both platinum and palladium are expected to be volatile and bullish [2][3]. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 599.85 yuan/gram, with a 6.73% increase [1]. - Geopolitical risks, such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone on February 4, 2026, have boosted market risk - aversion and led to a rebound in platinum prices. The expectation of new sanctions on Russian platinum - group metals and US tariffs on platinum and palladium also support the short - term bullish trend [1]. - South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks of power supply and extreme weather in the future. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand for jewelry and investment. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase long - term price elasticity [1]. Palladium - As of February 3, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 461 yuan/gram, with a 6.29% increase [1]. - After a significant short - term correction, the overheating risk of palladium has been released. In the long - term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, but in the short - term, tight spot supply, US tariff increases, and sanctions on Russia support the price bottom. The Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle also has a positive impact on palladium prices [3]. Commodity Index - On February 4, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index includes the following: the commodity index was 2421.45, up 1.99%; the commodity 20 index was 2772.98, up 2.43%; the industrial products index was 2322.73, up 1.42% [50]. - The non - ferrous metals index on February 4, 2026, was 2739.40, with a daily increase of 2.28%, a 5 - day decrease of 8.01%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.99% [51]. - The PPI commodity index was 1434.67, up 1.75% [51].