1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 26, 2025, equity index futures showed mixed performance, CGB futures declined, and commodity futures displayed divergence with the energy and chemical sectors leading the declines [2][4][11]. - China issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability Between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods to Further Promote Consumption" [1][3][35]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices for platinum and palladium futures contracts, which will be listed for trading on November 27, 2025 [37][38][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH rose by 0.14%, IM rose by 0.42%, TL fell by 0.86% [11][14]. - Commodity futures: The top three gainers were Peanut Kernel (up 4.0% with open interest increasing by 19.6% MoM), Polysilicon (up 2.9% with open interest increasing by 10.8% MoM), and Glass (up 1.9% with open interest decreasing by 2.4% MoM). The top three decliners were SCFIS (Europe) (down 7.6% with open interest decreasing by 8.7% MoM), PP (down 1.4% with open interest decreasing by 3.2% MoM), and Coke (down 1.3% with open interest increasing by 2.2% MoM) [12][13][14]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Glass**: On November 26, it rose 1.9% to 1,037 yuan/ton. In a neutral macro environment, supply may see month - on - month output decline due to year - end cold repair expectations, while demand is weak. The futures price, at a premium to Hubei's spot with high valuation, factors in future cold repair hopes [17][18][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal**: On November 26, it fell 1.1% to 1084.5 yuan/ton. Central safety inspections had limited impact on supply, and imports from Mongolia will supplement domestic supply. Coke output fell month - on - month, and mid - downstream procurement slowed. Market sentiment cooled sharply [23][24][25]. - **Coke**: On November 26, it fell 1.3% to 1619 yuan/ton. Supply increased slightly as four rounds of price hikes were implemented, raw coal prices fell, and environmental restrictions were lifted. Demand was weak as steel mills' profits were pressured, and off - season maintenance increased. Inventory at coking enterprises increased slightly but remained low [30][31][32]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Culture and Tourism, People's Bank of China, and State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Implementation Plan on Enhancing the Adaptability Between Supply and Demand of Consumer Goods to Further Promote Consumption" [35][36]. 3.2.2 Industry News - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that Platinum Futures and Palladium Futures will be listed for trading on November 27, 2025, with specific listing benchmark prices for each contract [37][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others may face downward or upward pressure in different time frames [1]. - The agricultural market is influenced by multiple factors, including supply - demand relationships, weather conditions, policies, and international trade [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Livestock (Pigs) - **Viewpoint**: Supply pressure persists, and the spot price remains weak [1][2]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, monthly supply is abundant, and the planned daily slaughter of large - scale farms in November slightly increases compared to October. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until the first quarter of 2026. In the long - term, sow production capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026. Demand is insufficient, and the average slaughter weight is increasing [2]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate weakly. The near - term contracts may continue to be weak due to high - capacity realization and large - pig slaughter pressure at the end of the year. The far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction [3]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: The expected increase in November's palm oil production in Malaysia narrows, and market sentiment shows signs of stabilization [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market anticipates an improvement in US soybean export demand and a possible Fed rate cut in December. In the industry, the progress of South American soybean planting is smooth, and the expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high. For palm oil, the expected month - on - month increase in Malaysia's November production narrows, and exports decline. For rapeseed oil, domestic supply is currently tight, but it may increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to oscillate strongly, palm oil to oscillate, and rapeseed oil to oscillate strongly. The market may gradually stabilize [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between reality and expectation, and the M15 spread decreases [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, Sino - US communication may boost market sentiment. La Nina is expected, and South American soybean planting is progressing. Brazilian soybean exports in November are expected to reach 440 million tons. Domestically, the profit of soybean imports is repaired, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high. The sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal increase, and the inventory of soybean meal decreases seasonally [7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to oscillate within a range [8]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: There is a short - term supply - demand tightness, and prices oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is tight. Factors include farmers' reluctance to sell, downstream replenishment needs, differences in grain quality and regional price differences, traders' rush to buy, and tight transportation capacity [10]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. In the short - term, the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price will continue to oscillate [11]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The impact of floods in the production area needs further observation [13]. - **Logic**: After the previous decline due to high export data in October and weak downstream procurement, the market rebounded due to the flood in southern Thailand. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The RU contract may face greater selling pressure than the NR contract [14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The price is expected to maintain a wide - range and high - elasticity oscillation, and there is no obvious trend [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Continue to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: The BR contract rebounded recently, mainly due to the relatively stable trading of raw material butadiene. However, there is still pressure on the fundamentals and raw material side [15]. - **Outlook**: Before there is an obvious supply - demand contradiction in butadiene, short - selling on rallies is recommended [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: Under the game between long and short forces, it will continue to oscillate within a range in the short - term [16]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase in production. On the demand side, consumption has been good in recent months. The commercial inventory is accumulating, and the price is supported by cost and downstream procurement but faces hedging pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract will oscillate within a range. In the long - term, it is undervalued and is expected to oscillate strongly. Buying on dips is recommended [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: In the medium - and long - term, there is a downward drive, but the cost side provides short - term support [16]. - **Logic**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus. The supply pressure will increase as the new sugar is pressed. However, the 01 contract shows some support at 5300 yuan/ton [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - and long - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - selling on rallies is recommended, and the support at 5300 yuan/ton should be monitored in the short - term [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of softwood pulp is weak, and the logic of near - and far - term futures differs [17]. - **Logic**: The recent decline in futures is due to the withdrawal of long - position funds. There are both bullish and bearish factors, and it is expected to oscillate within a wide range [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures will mainly oscillate widely [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The raw material price is weak, and offset paper oscillates at a low level [19]. - **Logic**: The weakening of the pulp market and light social demand affect the price. Although some paper mills want to maintain prices, the market remains under supply pressure [19]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists. There is price support in the short - term due to publishers' purchases, but it may oscillate weakly in the medium - term [20]. 3.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Log prices are weakening and entering the deep - value area [21]. - **Logic**: The market is weak with no obvious buying interest. The supply from New Zealand is expected to increase in December, and demand is expected to be weak in 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The supply is loose, demand has no incremental expectation, and the spot price is under pressure. It will maintain a narrow - range bottom - oscillating trend [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The overall commodity index shows different trends. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and industrial product index, shows slight increases, while the PPI commodity index shows a slight decrease [179]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 26, 2025, the agricultural product index increased by 0.30% on the day, 0.55% in the past 5 days, 0.06% in the past month, and decreased by 2.68% since the beginning of the year [180].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks dominates oil prices, and the prices of polyolefin futures have reached new lows in recent years. The situation of strong current and weak expectations in the crude oil market continues, and the key variable lies in the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Investors should temporarily adopt a volatile mindset [2]. - The weakening of crude oil leads to a decline in the cost of oil-based chemicals. The production capacity growth rates of PP and PE in 2025 both exceed 10%, and the maintenance efforts are insufficient. The production of polyolefins has been at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and the monthly production of both varieties in October reached a record high [3]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and the aromatics pattern being slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. If geopolitical support gradually weakens, it is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Main Logic**: The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan is becoming more optimistic, but uncertainties remain high. API data shows that the US crude oil inventory decreased last week while gasoline and diesel inventories increased. The pressure of inventory accumulation due to oversupply still exists, and there is a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. Macro and geopolitical factors have had an increasing impact on oil prices recently [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: Due to raw material supply disruptions and optimistic sentiment, the asphalt futures price rebounded. The absolute price of asphalt is overestimated, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The increase in crude oil and rebar prices driven by optimistic expectations has boosted the asphalt futures price. Reuters reported that Venezuela is seeking key raw material supplies from Chevron, and the shortage of Venezuelan diluted naphtha supply may lead to a decline in its crude oil exports. After the futures pricing returned to the Shandong spot price, the recent stability of the Shandong spot price has strengthened the support for the futures price [9]. 3.1.3 High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. Geopolitical escalation will only cause short-term price disturbances, and attention should be paid to changes in the Russia-Ukraine situation [9]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in December, and White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November. The three major drivers supporting high-sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia-Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine-Israel conflict, are currently weak. The refinery operating rate has dropped significantly in the off-season, and the refinery processing demand is weak. The United States is currently using gas oil as a substitute for residue oil, and the fuel oil demand in the Middle East is still weak during the off-season [9]. 3.1.4 Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The low-sulfur fuel oil futures price is in a weak and volatile state. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high-sulfur fuels, and the demand space is limited. However, the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Low-sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of refined oil products, and the pressure level of 3500 is temporarily effective. Recently, the decline in Russian refined oil exports has driven the rebound of gasoline and diesel cracking spreads, which has supported low-sulfur fuel oil. However, White House officials expect Russia and Ukraine to reach a framework agreement by the end of November, and diesel prices have dropped significantly, causing low-sulfur fuel oil to follow the decline. Low-sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, the substitution of green energy, and the substitution of high-sulfur fuels. Its valuation is low and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [11]. 3.1.5 Methanol - **View**: The rebound has reflected the confirmed expectations, and high inventories will suppress the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to be in a short-term volatile consolidation state, and there may be a possibility of repeated bottoming in the long term [30][31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, methanol continued to rise but showed signs of weakness. The trading atmosphere in the inland market was active, and the demand for long-term contracts and replenishment by traders was obvious. Olefin enterprises purchased in normal quantities, smoothly digesting the enterprise inventories. After the confirmation of the shutdown information of Iranian methanol plants, the expectations have been basically reflected in the futures price through the reduction of short positions on the 24th. However, considering the high expected import volume, the high coastal inventories are expected to remain at a historical high level, continuing to suppress the upward space of the futures price after the rebound [30]. 3.1.6 Urea - **View**: Downstream demand is weak, and the futures price has declined slightly. The fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, with high inventories suppressing prices and spot prices providing support. The market is expected to be in a narrow and volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection restrictions on the operation of downstream compound fertilizers [31]. - **Main Logic**: On November 25, the daily production on the supply side remained at a high level. Some devices are expected to resume operation soon, while others have started maintenance. The demand side lacks sustainability, and the market lacks continuous upward momentum. Some regional prices have loosened, and the futures price has declined slightly following the spot price [31]. 3.1.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Without further positive support, the price has entered an adjustment range. The long-term inventory accumulation pressure is large, the rebound height is limited, and the price will maintain a wide and volatile range at a low level [21][22]. - **Main Logic**: The ethylene glycol price rose and then fell during the day. After the short-term sentiment was further released, there was no other obvious positive support. The early implementation of the maintenance plan at Sinochem Quanzhou has relieved the supply-side pressure to some extent, and the price has experienced an emotional recovery. However, there is still an expectation of the return of coal-based devices, and the expectation of inventory accumulation from November to December has not been reversed. With the expectation of future production capacity expansion, the price increase is under pressure [21]. 3.1.8 PX - **View**: The cost-side support is slightly insufficient, but the demand-side support maintains the profitability. In the short term, it is expected to shift from the previous strength to an adjustment phase, and the price will fluctuate with the cost, waiting for the fermentation of sentiment and further feedback from downstream industries [13]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are volatile and weak, and the cost-side support for PX is slightly insufficient. After the price increase, PX has entered a correction phase. The market news is relatively calm, and there have been no significant changes in PX devices. The sentiment for blending into gasoline has cooled down slightly, but PX supply still remains at a high level. The demand side still provides some support for PX prices, which will fluctuate within a certain range under the influence of cost and sentiment [13]. 3.1.9 PTA - **View**: The spot basis is strong, and the processing fee has been slightly repaired. The price will fluctuate with the cost, and the support for the processing fee has increased. The basis has emerged from a weak state. There may be an opportunity for a positive spread arbitrage in TA01 - 05 when it is below -50 [14][15]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support from upstream is average, and the market sentiment has cooled down, resulting in average negotiations. However, the PTA supply-demand pattern has improved compared to the previous period, leading to a stronger basis. There is a possibility of inventory reduction from November to December. Attention should be paid to the export performance after the cancellation of BIS [15]. 3.1.10 Short Fiber - **View**: Downstream demand is temporarily maintained, and it will passively follow the upstream. The short fiber price will fluctuate with the upstream, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. A light long position in TA and short position in PF can be considered [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The cost-side support is limited, and the price increase is modest even with the rebound of ethylene glycol. The current supply-demand pattern of polyester staple fiber is in a weakening cycle, and demand only meets the basic needs. Polyester staple fiber factories are mainly focused on sales [25]. 3.1.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: The price fluctuation is limited, and the profit is stagnant. The absolute price will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the overall support for the processing fee has increased [26]. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures prices rose and then fell. Polyester bottle chip factories slightly increased their prices in some areas. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle chip market was average, and there was a large price difference among different brands. The short-term upstream cost is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, providing no clear directional guidance, and the profit of polyester bottle chips will have limited fluctuations [26]. 3.1.12 Propylene - **View**: The spot is strong, and PL is volatile. PL is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **Main Logic**: The restart of supply has been delayed, and the overall supply remains tight. Propylene enterprises have controllable inventories, and some offer prices have increased slightly. Downstream demand has been positive, with an increase in the premium for actual orders, and the trading center has shifted upwards significantly. The PP - PL spread has narrowed in the short term, and the operating rate of downstream powder plants has declined [35]. 3.1.13 PP - **View**: Oil prices are weakening, and there are still fundamental pressures. Attention should be paid to changes in maintenance. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [34][35]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for PP itself is still limited. Although maintenance has increased slightly, the high growth of production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The midstream inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, and weak demand will continue to suppress the price [35]. 3.1.14 Plastic - **View**: Oil prices are falling, and the downstream is entering the off-season. Maintenance provides limited support, and it is expected to be volatile and weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [33][34]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices are volatile and declining. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations has led to a lack of marginal positive factors after the reduction of Russian oil production. The macro and geopolitical factors point to a pessimistic outlook for oil prices. The fundamental support for plastics itself is still limited. The upstream and midstream still have the intention to reduce inventories at high prices, which will suppress the upward space of prices. Short-term maintenance provides limited support, and the increase in production capacity still exerts pressure on output. The profit support is limited, and the downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [34]. 3.1.15 Styrene - **View**: The narrative of blending into gasoline has faded, and styrene has returned to a volatile state. It is expected to be volatile for the time being. Attention should be paid to the expected difference between the de - stocking of styrene ports and the inventory accumulation of pure benzene ports [19]. - **Main Logic**: The gasoline crack spread and the Asia - US aromatic hydrocarbon spread indicate that the driving force of blending into gasoline is questionable. After the speculative premium is squeezed out, the downward space for styrene is limited. There are some positive factors such as exports and the reduction of Korean aromatic hydrocarbon production. The supply - demand balance between pure benzene and styrene from December to January is not a major issue, with only minor de - stocking and inventory accumulation, so it will be mainly volatile for the time being [19]. 3.1.16 PVC - **View**: High inventories suppress prices, and PVC may be anchored to production cuts. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or export volume exceeds expectations, the downward pressure on the futures price will be relieved [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the de - stocking of high PVC inventories is slow, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to enterprise production cuts. Specifically, PVC production is at a high level, the profits of marginal enterprises are poor but there are no clear production cut plans; downstream operating rates are seasonally weak, and only low - price purchases increase; the anti - dumping measures in India have been cancelled, and with the new low in Chinese PVC prices, last week's PVC export orders were booming; the supply and demand of calcium carbide have both increased, and the price is weakly stable; the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is different, and the downward space of the price may be restricted by liquid chlorine [37]. 3.1.17 Caustic Soda - **View**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda is in a volatile state. If low profits lead to upstream production cuts or the logic of warehouse receipts in December takes effect, the futures price may stabilize [37]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in December and the Fed's interest rate decision to guide market expectations. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and attention should be paid to whether low profits can lead to upstream production cuts. Specifically, the marginal profit of alumina plants is poor, and the operating capacity may decline; Weiqiao's caustic soda inventory is high, and the purchase volume is still large; the commissioning of a 4.8 million - ton alumina plant in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will boost the demand for caustic soda, and the purchase of caustic soda is in progress, but the delivery time has been postponed; the non - aluminum operating rate has slightly weakened, and the willingness to replenish inventory is not high; the maintenance in November will end one after another, and the production of caustic soda will increase month - on - month; the price of liquid chlorine is 50 yuan/ton and may decline in the future, and the cost of caustic soda (2250 yuan/ton) may increase [37]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: The report provides the cross - period spreads and their changes for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. [40]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [41]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: The cross - variety spreads and their changes are presented, including 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although specific data and analysis for each variety (methanol, urea, styrene, etc.) are mentioned, no detailed content is provided in the given text, so a summary cannot be made. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and plate index of the commodity are provided. The comprehensive index shows an increase, and the energy index has declined in the short term [284][285].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, the mid - term outlooks include "oscillating and bullish" for copper, aluminum, aluminum alloy, lead, tin; "oscillating" for zinc, nickel, stainless steel; and "oscillating with pressure" for alumina [6][10][12][18][24][15][20][23][8]. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Overall Base Metals**: Optimistic sentiment has increased, causing base metals to stop falling and rebound. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions support prices, and a positive macro - environment drives prices up. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [1]. - **Individual Metals**: Each metal has unique supply - demand and macro - related factors influencing its price trend. For example, copper is affected by Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum by production capacity and demand; zinc by export windows and demand seasons; and tin by supply disruptions and growing demand [6][10][17][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Fed rate - cut expectations are volatile, causing copper prices to consolidate at high levels. The market's implied probability of a December rate cut rose from 40% to 70% after Williams' speech. In October, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month. The mid - term outlook is oscillating and bullish [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and prices continue to face pressure. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the market awaits more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances. It is expected to oscillate [8]. - **Aluminum**: Macro - sentiment is volatile, and aluminum prices are oscillating at high levels. Domestic production capacity is high, overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long run, and demand is stable. The short - term outlook is oscillating and bullish, and the mid - term price center may rise [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Warehouse receipts continue to rise, and the price is oscillating at high levels. The cost is supported by tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply has potential production - cut risks, and demand is marginally improving. The short - and mid - term outlooks are oscillating and bullish [12]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. Macro - sentiment is stable but expected to be volatile. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and production is high. Demand is entering the off - season. In the short term, prices may fall from high - level oscillations, and there is more downside in the long term [17]. - **Lead**: LME lead warehousing has slowed, and lead prices may stop falling. Spot premiums are stable, supply is affected by environmental protection and maintenance, and demand is at the end of the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [18]. - **Nickel**: Environmental disturbances at Indonesian MHP producers are causing nickel prices to oscillate. Global visible inventories are increasing, and the market sentiment dominates the price, with a weakening industrial fundamental [20]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel price rebounds have repaired the stainless - steel market. Cost support is weakening, production may decrease in November, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [23]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment has improved, and tin prices are oscillating at high levels. Supply is constrained by slow复产 in Wa State, reduced Indonesian exports, and unstable African production. Demand is growing in semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. The price is expected to oscillate and be bullish [24]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On November 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all showed increases, with gains of 0.46%, 0.57%, 0.19%, and 0.22% respectively [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On November 25, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index had a daily increase of 0.40%, a 5 - day increase of 0.15%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.82% [151].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - On November 25, 2025, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; commodities were mixed with metals performing relatively strongly [2][10][13] - Gold is in a volatile range with limited upside momentum but solid downside support, and the market's core contradiction centers on the December rate - cut path [17][18] - Polysilicon supply - demand fundamentals remain under pressure, but prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility due to dry - season output cuts and anti - involution policy expectations [22][23] - On November 24, 2025, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Donald Trump, which is of great importance to the stable development of China - US relations [27] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 25, 2025, in China's financial futures, IH rose by 0.35%, IM rose by 0.66%, and TL fell by 0.33%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Lithium Carbonate (up 4.5% with position volume down 6.0% month - on - month), Poly - Silicon (up 2.8% with positions increasing 0.5% month - on - month), and Silver (up 2.8% with positions rising 5.5% month - on - month). The top three decliners were SCFIS Europe Route (down 7.8% with positions up 11.4% month - on - month), Palm Oil (down 1.7% with positions increasing 0.5% month - on - month), and LSFO (down 1.3% with position volume up 0.5% month - on - month) [10][11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Gold & Silver - On November 25, 2025, Gold rose 1.5% to 946.5 yuan/g, and Silver rose 2.8% to 12127 yuan/kg. Gold is in a volatile range with "weak upside and downside drivers", and the core market contradiction is about the December rate - cut path. The lack of key data before the Fed meeting, internal Fed divisions, and dollar high - level consolidation lead to fluctuating December rate - cut expectations. Gold has limited upside but solid downside support from geopolitical risk premium, stable central bank gold purchases, and optimistic medium - term rate - cut expectations [16][17][18] 1.2.2 Poly - Silicon - On November 25, 2025, Poly - Silicon rose 2.8% to 54730 yuan/ton. From the supply side, output will contract moderately in November due to the dry season, and long - term attention should be paid to anti - involution policies. On the demand side, PV installation growth in the first half of the year exhausted downstream demand, and polysilicon demand faces downside risks starting from November. Overall, supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure, but prices are expected to maintain wide - range volatility [21][22][23] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On November 24, 2025, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Donald Trump at the latter's request. Xi clarified China's principled position on the Taiwan question. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the call was initiated by the US side, with a positive, friendly, and constructive atmosphere, which is important for the stable development of China - US relations [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias", "Oscillating", and "Oscillating with a Bullish Bias" respectively [7][8][9] Core Viewpoints - Overseas shocks are weakening, and risk appetite may recover. Stock index futures are showing a slight repair, stock index options are bullish on the medium - to - long - term upward trend, and risk appetite and news factors continue to disrupt the bond market [1][2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - **View**: Overseas shocks are weakening, and the stock market is slightly repairing. The market logic is scattered, and it awaits event or main - line signals. Tactically, use a dumbbell configuration in the short - term and observe the layout switching window. The operation suggestion is to hold a combination of Dividend ETF and IM long positions [7] - **Logic**: The impact of the US stock market is easing, the Fed's voting members' views are wavering, and the probability of interest rate cuts has recovered. The US AI technology is showing a divergence, and domestic technology stocks have opened higher. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and recovered on Tuesday, but continuous upward movement needs further catalysts [7] - **Market Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points, inter - period spreads, and position changes are provided [7] Stock Index Options - **View**: The sentiment is bullish on the medium - to - long - term upward trend. Consider selling put options below or using covered call strategies on stock positions to increase returns [8] - **Logic**: The sentiment of the underlying market continued to recover. The trading volume of the options market was 8.102 billion yuan, with liquidity remaining stable. The decreasing volatility indicates a weakening of the hedging trend and a long - term layout of selling options. The increase in the PCR of open interest may signal a new medium - to - long - term upward channel [8] Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: Risk appetite and news factors continue to disrupt the bond market. The expected trend is oscillating with a bullish bias. Suggestions include trend strategies, hedging strategies, basis strategies, and curve strategies [8][9] - **Logic**: The central bank's net injection of 100 billion yuan through the 1 - year MLF led to a decline in capital interest rates and looser capital conditions. The short - end bonds performed better than the long - end. The long - end sentiment was weak due to the recovery of risk appetite and news factors. The stock - bond seesaw effect and the expected new regulations on fund fees affected the long - end bond futures [8] - **Market Data**: Trading volume, open interest, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis points of T, TF, TS, TL are provided [8] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US PPI annual rate, core PPI annual rate, retail sales year - on - year, GDP quarterly adjusted annualized rate, PCE price index, China's industrial enterprise profit cumulative year - on - year, and the EU's economic sentiment index [10] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - An official press conference will be held to introduce policies to enhance the matching of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption [11] - From January to October 2025, China's full - scale foreign direct investment reached 1.03323 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7% (144.34 billion US dollars, a 6.2% increase). Non - financial direct investment was 872.6 billion yuan, a 6% increase (121.9 billion US dollars, a 5.2% increase) [11] - The National Space Administration issued an action plan for the high - quality and safe development of commercial space from 2025 - 2027, aiming to achieve high - quality development by 2027 [11] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes data monitoring on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided text [12][16][28]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-26 美国零售销售弱于预期，PPI持平预期，宏观信号整体偏鸽，12⽉降息交 易进⼀步巩固。⻩⾦在数据公布后迅速收复此前因俄乌谈判进展传闻带来 的回调，再度站稳4140-4150区间。 重点资讯： 1） 美国和乌克兰官员周一试图缩小双方在结束乌克兰战争计划上的 分歧，此前他们同意修改一份被基辅及其欧洲盟友视为克里姆林宫愿 望清单的美国提案。 2） 美国总统特朗普周一签署行政命令，在政府内部启动一项全面性 的计划，建立整合式人工智能平台，利用联邦科学数据集来训练下一 代技术。 3） 美联储理事沃勒周一表示，现有数据显示，美国就业市场依然疲 软，足以促使美联储在12月9-10日会议上再次降息25个基点。不过， 此后的行动将取决于即将发布的"大量"数据，目前美国统计机构正 在处理因政府停摆而延误的工作。 价格逻辑： 美国9月PPI年率与月率均符合预期（2.7% / 0.3%），对通胀趋势影 响有限；但零售销售明显弱于预期（0.2% vs 0.4%），控制组下降 至-0.1%，并伴随小幅下修。弱消费数据强化市场对12月降息的预 ...

中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-11-26 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源 金属 新能源观点：现实供需偏紧，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需双增，供需延续偏紧格局；工业硅和多晶硅供 需趋松。中短期来看，广期所针对碳酸锂限仓且上调日内平今仓手续 费，投资者对供需偏紧的乐观情绪快速降温，碳酸锂一度杀跌，不 过，考虑到碳酸锂现实供需偏紧，短时冲击过后，投资者重新聚焦偏 紧的供需面，碳酸锂再度领涨新能源金属。长期来看，硅供应端收缩 预期较强，尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶 段，但需求预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，碳酸锂长期 供需走向需要重新审视。 ⼯业硅观点：过剩压⼒仍在，硅价震荡运⾏ 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅⾼位震荡 碳酸锂观点：需求预期提振，锂价重新⾛强 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号F03093201 投资咨询号Z0020 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: On November 21st, the New York Fed President's speech hinted at a possible near - term interest rate cut, significantly boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is turning, and it's advisable to follow key Fed voting members' speeches and potential new chair nominations around Thanksgiving [6]. - Domestic: Domestic endogenous momentum remains weak and stable. The issuance of 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments in October, the accelerated issuance of special bonds in November, and the release of debt - resolution surplus quotas may bring marginal benefits to Q4 infrastructure investment. The loan prime rate has been stable since May's 10 - basis - point cut. New and second - hand housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but land transactions remain low, and real - estate physical work demand and capacity have declined [6]. - Asset Views: Due to differences among Fed policymakers on a December rate cut, the Fed's October meeting minutes being hawkish, and strong September non - farm payrolls data, the December rate - cut expectation was initially suppressed, and the US dollar index rose. After the New York Fed President's dovish speech, the market risk appetite may improve in the short term. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing opportunities in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and precious metals [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The New York Fed President's speech on November 21st hinted at a near - term rate cut, boosting the December rate - cut expectation. The Fed's expectation management is shifting, and key figures may turn dovish in the next two weeks [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Endogenous momentum is weak. Policy - based financial instruments, special bond issuance, and debt - resolution surplus quotas may benefit Q4 infrastructure. The loan prime rate has been stable. Housing sales and land supply have rebounded, but real - estate physical work has declined [6]. - **Asset Views**: Due to Fed policy uncertainties, asset prices were initially pressured. After the dovish speech, market risk appetite may improve. It is recommended to consider bottom - fishing in stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: The decline of the Shanghai Composite Index has slowed, and hedging forces are taking profits. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is expected to fluctuate, with attention on option market liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed higher. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on the implementation of monetary policies [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Geopolitical and trade tensions have eased, leading to a phased adjustment. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the US fundamentals, Fed policies, and global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is no upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The fundamentals are improving, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron - water production has slightly weakened, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policies [7]. - **Coke**: Supply and demand have slightly declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Near - month delivery is under pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with attention on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weakened with the sector, but cost support remains. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price has declined with the sector, but cost support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot losses are increasing, and cold - repair expectations are rising. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Coal prices have fallen, weakening cost support. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on soda ash inventory [7]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Due to differences within the Fed, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation persists, and prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on ore production and electrolytic aluminum复产 [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory is decreasing, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro risks and zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Social inventory has decreased, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on supply disruptions and battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on macro, geopolitical, and Indonesian policy risks [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on Indonesian policies and demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw - material supply is tight, and prices are strongly supported. It is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention on Wa State's复产 and demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The oversupply pressure remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and policies [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Policy expectations are volatile, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on supply - side复产 and domestic photovoltaic policies [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Trading sentiment has cooled, and prices are fluctuating at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical premiums are volatile, and supply pressure continues. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - **LPG**: Refinery output has decreased, and import costs are under pressure. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on cost - side developments [9]. - **Asphalt**: The rise of rebar prices has driven up asphalt futures. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sanctions and supply disruptions [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The expectation of a Russia - Ukraine agreement has weakened fuel prices. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on geopolitics and crude - oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has followed the weak crude - oil market. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on crude - oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Overseas disturbances are confirmed, and it is expected to be strong in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on macro - energy and overseas production stoppages [9]. - **Urea**: Centralized procurement has slowed, and prices are fluctuating narrowly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on export quotas and Indian tenders [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand situation has improved, and some short - sellers have closed positions. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on coal and oil prices, port inventory, and Sino - US trade [9]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and prices are adjusting. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations, macro events, and aromatics blending [9]. - **PTA**: Fundamentals have improved marginally, and profits are being repaired. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations and macro events [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream demand is stable, and it follows the upstream market. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on downstream purchasing and peak - season demand [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Cost support has increased, and prices have rebounded slightly. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on production cuts and new - plant commissioning [9]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the domestic macro - economy [9]. - **PP**: Fundamental pressure is priced in, and attention should be paid to maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly, and prices are fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices and the macro - economy [9]. - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has faded, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on oil prices, macro policies, and plant operations [9]. - **PVC**: High inventory is suppressing prices, and it may be tied to production cuts. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation and weak supply - demand conditions lead to price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are diverging, with palm oil being weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil supply - demand [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Rapeseed - meal prices have risen, and the soybean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, domestic demand, and trade relations [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Bullish drivers continue, and prices have risen again. It is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention on demand, the macro - economy, and weather [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are weak. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: Floods in production areas have boosted bullish sentiment, but the upside is limited. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on weather, raw - material prices, and the macro - economy [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw - material transactions support prices. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on crude - oil fluctuations [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices have rebounded, and the 1 - 5 spread has widened. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have continued to rebound. It is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention on imports and Brazilian production [9]. - **Pulp**: The balance of long and short factors remains, and prices are mainly fluctuating. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on the macro - economy and US dollar - based quotes [9]. - **Offset Paper**: It is following the raw - material market and fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on sales, education policies, and paper - mill operations [9]. - **Logs**: Supply and demand are loose, and prices are fluctuating at low levels. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention on shipments and dispatches [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Protein meal: Bullish [2][3][9] - Corn/starch: Bullish [10] - Live pigs: Bearish [12] - Natural rubber: Neutral [13][15] - Synthetic rubber: Bearish [16] - Cotton: Neutral [16] - Sugar: Bearish [17] - Pulp: Neutral [18] - Offset paper: Neutral [19] - Logs: Bearish [21] - Oils and fats: Mixed (soybean oil - neutral, palm oil - bearish, rapeseed oil - neutral) [6][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own influencing factors and price outlooks [1][6][9] - For protein meal, both international and domestic factors contribute to a bullish outlook, but attention should be paid to factors such as Chinese purchases of US soybeans and South American weather [2][9] - In the oils and fats market, the performance of different oils varies, affected by macro - environment, industrial policies, and supply - demand relationships [6][7] - Corn prices are driven up by multiple factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, and transportation issues [10][11] - Live pig prices are weak due to abundant supply in the short - to - medium term, but supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Protein Meal - **International situation**: Multiple factors such as the possible occurrence of La Nina, drought risks in South America, and changes in US and Brazilian soybean exports and压榨量 lead to an expected bullish trend for US soybeans [2][9] - **Domestic situation**: Import profit of Chinese soybeans is restored, oil mill soybean压榨量 is high, and the supply and demand of domestic protein meal are relatively balanced in the short term. Attention should be paid to Chinese purchases of US soybeans, profit repair, and downstream replenishment [2][9] Oils and Fats - **Macro - environment**: Fed officials' dovish remarks boost the expectation of a December interest rate cut, and the impact of the US promoting a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on crude oil needs to be monitored [6] - **Industrial situation**: Pay attention to China's purchases of US soybeans, US biodiesel policies, South American soybean planting progress, and the supply and demand of different oils [6] Corn/Starch - **Price information**: The flat - hatch price at Jinzhou Port increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract increased by 1.63% [10] - **Driving factors**: Farmers' reluctance to sell, rigid demand for replenishment, concentrated demand in the Northeast, traders' passive grain - grabbing, and tight transportation capacity drive the price up [11] Live Pigs - **Supply**: In the short - to - medium term, the supply is abundant, but the sow production capacity has shown signs of reduction since the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure may ease in the second half of 2026 [12] - **Demand**: The demand is insufficient, and the pig - to - meat ratio has declined, with sporadic bacon - curing in the South [12] - **Outlook**: The near - term price is weak, and the far - term price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [12] Natural Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of some rubber products and raw materials have changed, and the export volume of Thailand and Vietnam has decreased year - on - year [13][14] - **Logic**: Although there is speculation about floods in Thailand, the supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand has not changed significantly. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Market information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene have changed [16] - **Logic**: The stable成交 of butadiene supports the disk, but the fundamentals and raw material pressure are large. It is recommended to short at high prices [16] Cotton - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased [16] - **Logic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is supported by cost and downstream purchases and pressured by hedging [16] Sugar - **Market information**: The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract increased [17] - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the price has a downward drive. In the short term, the 01 contract has certain support at 5300 yuan/ton [17] Pulp - **Market information**: The prices of some pulp products have changed [17] - **Logic**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The pulp is expected to fluctuate widely, and different contracts have different pressure and support levels [18] Double - Offset Paper - **Logic**: The continuous decline of raw material prices and weak social demand lead to the low - level weak operation of double - offset paper. The price may be supported in November but may decline in December [19][20] Logs - **Logic**: The fundamentals are weak, the supply is expected to increase in the short term, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly around the cost line [21]