1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 CITIC Futures Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月28日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点继续回落，浮仓库存延续攀升。近期海外炼厂开工率高位运行，库存累积 主要在成品油端体现，原油累库压力有阶段性放缓的迹象。陆上库存分区域看，中国原油库存连续第8周回升，此外印度、俄罗斯库存回升，欧 中东库存回落。 洲、 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1: 全球陆上原油库存 35000000 3400000 3300000 第1周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 图表 2: 全球原油浮仓 150000 120000 90000 60000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 2024 -- 2023 2022 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the release of the 4.6% unemployment rate data in the US, the threshold for the decline of the long - end US Treasury yield increased again, the US Treasury yield curve continued to steepen, and the US dollar continued to weaken. Against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar, the RMB continued to appreciate to around 7. However, the RMB's appreciation speed may slow down in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents Exchange Rate Operation Core Logic - After the December FOMC meeting and the release of the US November unemployment rate data, market concerns about the non - linear rise of the US unemployment rate in the future resurfaced, shifting the focus from inflation to the labor market [2] - The reasons for the weakening of the US dollar are the possible statistical problems in the household survey part due to the US government shutdown in October affecting the November data and market concerns about a false signal similar to last year's [2] - The RMB has been appreciating, with the offshore RMB exchange rate performing stronger than the onshore one, indicating increased attractiveness of domestic asset returns and continuous inflow of foreign capital. The enhanced willingness to settle foreign exchange and the year - end seasonal peak also support the RMB, but the central bank's guidance on the mid - price and the rising short - end swap points may slow the RMB's appreciation [2] Economic Indexes and Exchange Rates - The difference between the US and European Citi Economic Surprise Indexes has rebounded [7] - The difference between the US and European long - term inflation expectations has increased [9] - The US long - term inflation expectation has declined [11] - The short - term US interest rate expectation has slightly changed [13] - The VIX index has fallen back to a low level [15] - The difference between the US and European short - term interest rate expectations has slightly decreased [16] Other Indicators and Exchange Rates - The euro swap basis shows that the US dollar cross - border liquidity pressure is limited [20] - The CFTC net position shows that the US dollar maintains a net negative position exposure [24] Exchange Rate and Commodity Prices - The copper price has significantly increased [30] - The crude oil price has remained at a low level [32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 52nd week of 2025, presenting the issuance and net - financing progress of various types of bonds, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national debt [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 104.0%. Next week, 14.5 billion yuan is planned for issuance [4]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 120.4 billion yuan [4]. New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 0 billion yuan, a decrease of 6 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 96.3% [7][16]. - As of December 28, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 38.4 billion yuan [4]. Local Bonds - As of December 28, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.8% [10]. - This week, the net - financing scale of local bonds was - 0.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.12 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [16]. National Debt - As of December 28, the net - financing progress of national debt was 98.2%. This week, the net - financing scale of national debt was 178 billion yuan, an increase of 225.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Next week, the planned net - financing is 0 billion yuan [12]. Government Bonds - This week, the net - financing of government bonds was 174.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 194 billion yuan compared to last week. As of December 28, the progress of national debt net - financing plus new local bond issuance was 100.2%. Next week, 1.74 billion yuan of net - financing is planned [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance progress of new special bonds as of 12/28 is 104.0%, with new special bonds issued this week amounting to 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week, and a planned issuance of 14.5 billion next week [4] - The cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December as of 12/28 is 3.84 billion, and the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December is 12.04 billion [4] - The issuance progress of new local bonds as of 12/28 is 102.8%, and the issuance progress of new general bonds is 96.3% [10][16] - The net financing progress of national debt as of 12/28 is 98.2%. The net financing scale of national debt this week is 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 0. The net financing of government bonds this week is 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [12] - The net financing scale of local bonds this week is -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week, and the planned net financing next week is 1.74 billion [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **New Special Bonds** - This week's issuance: 2 billion, a decrease of 27.2 billion compared to the previous week [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 104.0% [4] - Next week's planned issuance: 14.5 billion [4] - **New General Bonds** - This week's issuance: 0, a decrease of 6 billion compared to the previous week [7] - Cumulative issuance in December as of 12/28: 3.84 billion [4] - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 96.3% [16] - **New Local Bonds** - Issuance progress as of 12/28: 102.8% [10] - This week's net financing scale: -0.32 billion, a decrease of 3.12 billion compared to the previous week [16] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [16] - **National Debt** - Net financing progress as of 12/28: 98.2% [12] - This week's net financing scale: 178 billion, an increase of 225.3 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 0 [12] - **Government Bonds** - This week's net financing: 174.8 billion, a decrease of 194 billion compared to the previous week [12] - Next week's planned net financing: 1.74 billion [12]

信期货有限公司 Company Limited 发改委强调优化铜冶炼产能,铜价延续偏强走势 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 最新动态及原因 近期刷价延续偏击老，伦铜价格顺序废12000美元/吨，沪铜价格通近.0W元/吨关口，铜价持续刷新历史新高。消息面来看，国家发展改革委产业发展司发表题为《大力推动传统产业优 化提升》的文章，提出对氧化铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业，关键在于强化管理、优化布局。铜冶炼产能有望得到优化，精炼铜供应端增速收缩的预期进一步加强。 基本面情况 宏观方面，美联猪12月议易会议延续降息，并且宣布12月开始董自扩表、流动性宽松对铜价形成支撑。供需面来看，铜矿供应就动持续增加，印尼Grasberg硕矿城产加剧了铜矿供应的紧张 程度，2026年铜"长单加工费落地，创造了历史的饭值夸美元！吨，腰的所伍的给加工费将影响危險下刺潮。中国铜原料联合谈判小组(CSPT)两次形式论，成员企业达成共识将在 2026年 度降低矿铜产铬负荷10%以上，精炼铜供应端收缩的预期进一步加强。需求端，随着需求淡季来临，终端需求季节性走弱，库存持续累积、国内铜则货再次转为此水状态。 总结及策略 展望后市。随着美联储12月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Traditional energy: The slowdown in crude oil supply growth may help prices bottom out; tight thermal coal supply is expected to push up coal price levels; LNG supply growth acceleration is exerting downward pressure on global gas price levels [2][3]. - Carbon market: In 2026, China's carbon market is expected to return to a supply - tight state, and carbon prices may rise with fluctuations; European carbon prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the central level possibly slightly declining following natural gas prices [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - Supply: The supply growth rate has slowed, with geopolitical issues posing risks. OPEC+ continues to increase production but at a slower pace, halting production increases in Q1 2026; US production has entered a plateau phase and may face production cuts later. Non - US and non - OPEC+ supply increase expectations have also decreased. Overall supply remains loose, but the oversupply pressure has eased, and sanctioned countries' supply may decline periodically [9]. - Demand: Global oil demand growth continues to slow. Developed countries and China's oil demand have entered a plateau phase. Terminal demand lacks highlights, but structural contradictions in overseas refined oil markets and inventory replenishment in some regions support demand [10]. - Price: In a weak supply - demand scenario, the oil price center in 2026 may experience volatile bottom - building. The oversupply pressure will be relatively higher in H1, and the price may be lower in H1 and higher in H2 [11]. 3.2 Coal - Market situation: Since 2021, the coal market has been affected by multiple factors. Coal prices bottomed out in H1 2025, with clear cost support. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are likely to move within a range due to peaking coal demand during the energy transition [15]. - Supply control: To adapt to future coal demand changes and ensure energy security, coal supply needs to be controlled through stable production, safety supervision, and environmental monitoring [16]. - Demand: Coal demand remains resilient. New electricity demand, extreme weather, and the role of thermal power in the power system, as well as coal's use in the chemical industry, contribute to this resilience. Coal demand may peak between 2025 - 2027 and then enter a consumption plateau [17]. - Price: In 2026, coal supply has limited upward elasticity, and demand is moderately resilient. The fundamentals will shift from loose to balanced, with the price center potentially moving up to Rmb700 - 900 per tonne. Key factors include policy evolution and energy transition progress, and price dynamics are affected by unusual weather, speculative demand, market sentiment, and policy changes [18]. 3.3 Natural Gas 3.3.1 LNG - 2025 situation: Global supply growth exceeded 4%, but demand growth was less than 3%. By mid - Nov 2025, new production capacity added 42mn t, with a full - year expectation of over 46mn t. The actual supply increase exceeded 18mn t, with a growth rate over 4%, while the trade volume increase for the first ten months was only 9mn t, with a growth rate less than 3%. This led to a price trend of being higher in H1 and lower in H2 [22]. - 2026 outlook: The supply growth rate is expected to exceed 10%, while demand growth will be significantly lower. Capacity utilization will decline, and gas prices will face sustained pressure. Global production capacity is forecast to accelerate to over 60mn t, with actual supply increases potentially exceeding 40mn t, a growth rate of nearly 10%. The incremental output will mainly come from the US, Mexico, Qatar, and Nigeria. The global LNG trade growth rate in 2026 may be 3 - 4% or below 7% [23]. 3.3.2 Regional Market - Europe: The natural gas supply tends to ease due to global LNG capacity addition. Although Russian gas imports face uncertainty, the global supply increase can cover potential gaps. Residential and commercial gas usage will remain stable, and industrial gas consumption may slightly recover but is limited by energy transition. The gas price center faces downward pressure, and inventory replenishment pace is a key variable for seasonal prices [28]. - US: The market maintains a tight balance. Supply growth is expected to slow down, with some regions still having production potential, but associated gas production growth may decline. Domestic commercial and residential gas consumption may weaken, while industrial and power - sector demand are resilient. Exports will continue to grow strongly. The market is expected to continue inventory drawdown, with the price center staying at relatively high levels and regional structural contradictions becoming more pronounced [29]. 3.4 Carbon 3.4.1 Chinese Market - CEA: In 2026, the "tightening constraint" on quota carryovers in the national carbon market will disappear, and the market may return to the "reluctance to sell" logic. The net surplus of quotas will further decrease, and new demand from three new sectors may lead to carbon prices rising with fluctuations [31][32][33]. - CCER: The national CCER market is accelerating its "expansion". By Nov 6, 2025, 13 projects have completed emission reduction registration, with an initial volume of approximately 15.0428mt, and 11 projects are expected to complete registration in the next 6 months, adding about 7.5276mt of CCERs. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has released more methodologies, and more may be issued in the future [34][35][38]. 3.4.2 European Market - EUA: European carbon prices will fluctuate within a range, with the central level potentially following natural gas prices to a slight downward adjustment. In 2026, natural gas supply will be more relaxed, and demand will be moderate. In the long - term, as the EU reduces the cap on allowances, carbon prices are likely to have a floor support [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical industry shows a continued differentiation. The polyester industry chain is in a seasonal off - peak, while the styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall [2]. - Geopolitical factors are disturbing the crude oil market, and liquid chemical inventories are high, so the chemical industry's rebound will be volatile [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - International crude oil futures are in a Christmas holiday. Domestic SC has been relatively strong recently, and its near - end structure has turned back to Back. Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. Cold snaps in China may boost coal demand [1]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester and weaving开工 continue to decline. PTA开工 increases by 0.7% month - on - month, and ethylene glycol开工 increases by 0.2% month - on - month. The industry chain remains relatively healthy [2]. - PTA: The market is testing the downstream's ability to bear low processing fees. Prices follow costs to oscillate at high levels, and processing fees remain within a range. Consider going long on the TA05 contract on pullbacks and taking partial profits around 5100 - 5200. Also, consider a positive spread trade on TA05 - 09 [14][15]. - Short - fiber: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits. Prices follow the upstream to oscillate strongly, and processing fees are under short - term pressure [24][25]. - Bottle - chip: Upstream raw material costs support prices. The absolute value follows raw materials to fluctuate, and processing fees are slightly under pressure [26]. 3.2.2 Styrene Industry Chain - The styrene industry chain has both supply and demand increasing. Its own开工 increases by 2.25% month - on - month, and downstream开工 also rises, especially the weekly开工 of PS increases by 4.1% [2]. - Styrene: Exports affect the market, and it is strong intraday. It is about to enter a period of inventory accumulation, and the upstream has difficulty in destocking. Exports can stimulate short - term rebounds [19][20]. 3.2.3 Polyolefin Industry Chain - Polyolefins have weak supply and demand overall. A 500,000 - ton full - density plant in South China has started trial production, increasing pressure on PE. Low - price promotions by upstream suppliers have led to a decline in the overall inventory of production enterprises in the industry chain [2]. - PP: Basis support is limited, and it oscillates. The supply - demand pattern remains under short - term pressure [35]. - LLDPE: Maintenance needs time to increase, and it oscillates. The demand is gradually entering the off - peak season [34]. 3.3 Variety Analysis - **Crude Oil**: Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are accelerating, and it continues to oscillate. The market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after the geopolitical situation stabilizes [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is weakening. Pay attention to the implementation of downstream production cuts [3]. - **Asphalt**: The US is containing Venezuela without taking direct action. Its futures price oscillates higher. The absolute price is over - estimated [9]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. The demand outlook is currently suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region [9]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its futures price oscillates higher. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution, but its current valuation is low [9]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market remains stable. It is generally considered to oscillate [3][29][30]. - **Urea**: Demand follows up, and sentiment is boosted. The price rises and then oscillates. Supply pressure persists, and demand support may not be long - lasting [30][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic supply reduction is slow, and there is no continuous positive news. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains large [21][22]. - **PX**: Short - term sentiment fermentation takes time. It remains high in China, but downstream negative feedback may increase as the off - peak season deepens [13]. - **PVC**: Overseas production capacity is exiting, and it is supported again. Although supply has improved marginally, the rebound space may be limited [37][38]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment has weakened, and it oscillates downward. The medium - term fundamental outlook is poor, but the valuation is low [39][40]. 3.4 Variety Data Monitoring 3.4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 being 0.44 with a change of - 0.07, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being - 52 with a change of 30 [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, for example, asphalt's basis is - 75 with a change of 1, and its warehouse receipts are 54,100 [43]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also different inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 218 with a change of - 3 [45]. 3.4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summaries are provided in the given text for this part. 3.5 Index Data - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index is 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index is 2254.18, down 0.17% [287]. - The energy index on December 25, 2025, has a daily decline of 0.23%, a 5 - day increase of 3.15%, a 1 - month decline of 0.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.00% [289].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices showed a differentiation. Shanghai gold futures contracts fluctuated slightly at high levels, while Shanghai silver futures contracts rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, the risk of high - level volatility in silver increased, but in the quarterly level, the long logic of gold and silver remained smooth. Gold had a relatively high price safety margin as its historical volatility was at the end - of - year low [1]. - The core factors driving the upward movement of gold prices, such as geopolitical factors, the weakening of the US dollar, continuous central bank gold purchases, and the expectation of US interest rate cuts in the next year, remained unchanged. The expectation of loose liquidity was the core logic driving gold up in the quarterly level. The period from the nomination to the assumption of office of the new Fed chair was considered the most favorable time for trading liquidity expectations and Fed independence risks. Geopolitical tensions led to active safe - haven demand [6]. - In the short - term, silver prices might face increased volatility after a continuous sharp rise. In the long - term, the core drivers of silver price increases remained unchanged, and the upward elasticity of silver was expected to be further released in 2026. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still recur in the first quarter. The gold - silver ratio was expected to decline [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - On December 25, the offshore RMB against the US dollar broke through the 7.0 mark, reaching 6.9985 at the highest, the first time since September 2024. The offshore RMB had appreciated by 4.6% against the US dollar this year, and the on - shore RMB was approaching the 7 mark, with an annual appreciation of 4% [2]. - On December 25, the Ukrainian Air Force launched a missile attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov Oblast, which was one of the largest oil product suppliers in southern Russia with a storage tank capacity of over 210,000 cubic meters [2]. - A US official said on December 24 that the White House had ordered the US military to focus on the "blockade" of Venezuelan oil for at least the next two months, preferring economic pressure over military action [2]. - On December 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the latest Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the core territorial issues remained unresolved [2]. - On December 25, Japanese Prime Minister Kaoi Sanae announced a 2026 fiscal year budget of 122.3 trillion yen (about 5.5 trillion RMB), a 6.3% increase from 2025, the highest in Japanese history. The government planned to issue about 29.6 trillion yen in new bonds to support this large - scale expenditure [3]. - Guotou Silver LOF announced that the fund would be suspended from trading from the opening on December 26, 2025, to 10:30 and resume trading at 10:30. If the premium rate of the secondary market trading price did not decline effectively, the fund had the right to apply for temporary suspension or extended suspension to warn the market [3]. 3.2 Price Logic - Gold: After hitting a record high, Shanghai gold futures adjusted slightly, possibly due to some traders taking profits before the New Year. The core factors driving gold prices up remained, and the expectation of loose liquidity was the main driver in the quarterly level. The period around the Fed chair nomination was favorable for related trading. Geopolitical tensions maintained active safe - haven demand [6]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures rose by over 4% overnight, hitting a new record high. In the short - term, there was a risk of increased volatility, and investors needed to manage their positions. In the long - term, the core drivers of price increases remained unchanged, and in 2026, silver was expected to have greater upward elasticity and the gold - silver ratio might decline. The silver spot structural shortage problem might still occur in the first quarter [7]. 3.3 Outlook - In the short - term, the price range of London gold was expected to be between 4200 and 4550 US dollars per ounce, and that of London silver between 60 and 75 US dollars per ounce [8]. 3.4 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive commodity index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [49]. - The precious metals index was 3927.63 on December 25, 2025, with a daily decline of 0.77%, a 5 - day increase of 6.01%, a one - month increase of 16.51%, and a year - to - date increase of 77.53% [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policy in the US promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected without radical tightening, and it raised the 2025 GDP growth forecast while maintaining the 2026 forecast [6]. - In China, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference was held on December 23, deploying work for 2026 such as urban renewal, stabilizing the real estate market, and upgrading the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is a highlight, and it is expected that capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations and the previous value. Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate continued to weaken, while exports remained a significant support [6]. - In asset allocation, the macro - environment is favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. In the precious metals sector, the logic of gold's rise is clear and it has a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rally. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be mainly defensive during the year - end and policy - free window period [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4610.6, with a daily increase of 0.344, a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, a quarterly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.729%. The Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures also showed different degrees of increase. The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous offensive still needs to wait. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the situation of incremental funds [2][7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Options are used for covered call writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The long - end sentiment is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of monetary policy [7]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 97.9535, with a daily change of 0%, a weekly decrease of 0.77%, a monthly decrease of 1.49%, a quarterly increase of 0.13%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.70%. The euro - US dollar, US dollar - yen, and other exchange rates also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank deposit - based pledge rate was 1.4, with no change on the day, a weekly decrease of 4 bp, a monthly decrease of 10 bp, a quarterly decrease of 5 bp, and a year - to - date decrease of 35 bp. The 10Y Chinese government bond yield, 10Y US Treasury yield, and other interest rates also changed [2]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold was at 1008.76, with a daily decrease of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 2.95%, a monthly increase of 5.75%, a quarterly increase of 15.05%, and a year - to - date increase of 63.34%. Silver and other precious metals also had corresponding changes. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, driven by the expectation of loose liquidity and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [2][7]. 3.3 Shipping - The container shipping price on the European line was 1799.7, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, a daily increase of 4.65%, a monthly increase of 22.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 20.26%. The near - term demand is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and attention should be paid to the resumption of shipping in the far - term. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the 2026 shipping company's resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival cargo owner shipments to prices [2][7]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures price continues to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and pig iron production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipment and arrival decreased slightly, and port inventories continued to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic pig iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: After the third round of price cuts, coke enterprise profits turned negative. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: After the earthquake in Shanxi, the sentiment of going long is high. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply pressure has been alleviated, and the futures price is mainly running at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the upside space is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: The spot market is still weak, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the spot price is under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventories [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventories continue to accumulate, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and the recovery of domestic demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the failure of ore production to resume as expected, the over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The Mozal aluminum plant is facing shutdown, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations [7]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories continue to increase, and the upside space for zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the risk of macro - turnarounds and the unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery has improved, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and the slowdown of battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel ore, and nickel prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro - and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and the failure of supply to be released as expected [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices has driven the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The downstream's rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices are oscillating strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the expected复产 in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices have rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and policy changes [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchases is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the unexpected resumption of supply - side production and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [7]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation remains unresolved, and oil prices have risen for five consecutive days. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is facing a loosening, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost - side developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material benefits have been realized, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and crude oil prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil in oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [10]. - **Methanol**: The coastal and inland markets are in a stalemate, and methanol is seen as oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy and overseas actual shutdown dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Both supply and demand are weak, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Polyester production cuts have dampened market sentiment, and ethylene glycol has entered a low - valuation range again. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [10]. - **PX**: Bullish funds continue to bet, and the negative news of polyester production cuts has been quickly digested. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and refining and chemical plant disruptions [10]. - **PTA**: Cost and sentiment jointly drive the price, and polyester production cuts have emerged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil, macro - abnormalities, and insufficient support from downstream polyester loads [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and passive profit compression. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the conversion rhythm between peak and off - peak seasons [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The cost of upstream raw materials supports the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and the commissioning of new plants [10]. - **Propylene**: The spot market is strong, and there is an expectation of a decrease in PDH operating rates. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [10]. - **PP**: The expectation of maintenance boosts the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: The support of maintenance is limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: There are constraints on both rising and falling. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valuation support leads to a rebound at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, operating rates, and demand [10]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Rapeseed oil was relatively strong yesterday. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected changes in domestic and foreign oil and fat production and demand [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The inventory pressure continues, and the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating at a low level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand, South American weather, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to demand, the macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Both supply and demand are increasing, and pig prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price maintains a narrow - range oscillation. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price trend continues to be strong. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to sharp fluctuations in crude oil [10]. - **Cotton**: The rebound continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to production and demand [10]. - **Sugar**: Short - sellers taking profits drives the sugar price to rebound. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to imports and Northern Hemisphere production [10]. - **Pulp**: The price is fluctuating in a recent high - level range, and the futures price trend is dominated by funds. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10].