投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷炒作降温，新能源金属价格巨震 新能源观点：反内卷炒作降温，新能源⾦属价格巨震 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动，市场情绪一度非常乐观， 新能源金属价格走势趋强；但价格短时间内过快上涨并不利于供应端 收缩，反倒是可能增加供给端收缩政策推进的难度，密切留意产业链 动向。中短期来看，供应端收缩预期和成本抬升预期强化，新能源金 属价格一度加速上涨，但在实际供需没有明显改善且累库风险可能增 加背景下，乐观情绪消退引发资金获利了结，这也使得新能源金属价 格出现巨震，新能源金属多头押注可考虑暂时获利了结。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪仍在，硅价有所回升。 多晶硅观点：市场情绪反复，多晶硅价格延续⾼波动。 碳酸锂观点：市场情绪反复，锂价冲⾼后回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Given the expected strength of coal and the weakness of crude oil, coal - chemical products will be stronger than oil - chemical products in the future. Chemical products may continue to fluctuate in the near term [2]. - The high -开工 reality dominated by high refinery operations at home and abroad and the weak supply - led expectations will balance each other, resulting in oil price fluctuations [9]. - The high valuation of asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to fall as warehouse receipts increase [10]. - The prices of most chemical products, including methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, etc., are expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Crude oil: High - level pressure, pay attention to geopolitical disturbances, and the price will fluctuate [8][9]. - LPG: The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation remains loose, and the PG futures may show a weak - side fluctuation [3]. - Asphalt: The spot price of major suppliers has dropped, and the high - valued asphalt futures will decline following the crude oil [10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is a large downward pressure on the futures price [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It will fluctuate weakly following the crude oil [3][12]. - Methanol: Boosted by the macro - environment and coal, it will fluctuate [3][26]. - Urea: The market sentiment has slowed down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals, with short - term pressure [3][27]. - Ethylene glycol: The price will be widely adjusted, and it will seek a direction in the fluctuation [3][20]. - PX: The cost raw materials are weak, but the commodity sentiment is warm [3][14]. - PTA: The commodity sentiment stimulates the futures price to fluctuate more violently [3][15]. - Short - fiber: There are limited industrial contradictions, and it will fluctuate following the cost [3][22]. - Bottle chips: It will fluctuate following the upstream cost [3][24]. - PP: The macro - boost confronts the fundamental pressure, and it will fluctuate [3][31]. - Propylene: It had a remarkable debut, and the PL may fluctuate in the short term [3][32]. - Plastic: Supported by the macro - environment, it will fluctuate [3][30]. - Pure benzene: The balance sheet has improved, but the port has resumed inventory accumulation, and it will trade sideways [3][15]. - Styrene: The trading atmosphere is light, and it will fluctuate within a range [3][19]. - PVC: There is an expectation of cost increase, and it is cautiously optimistic [3][34]. - Caustic soda: Strong expectations but weak reality, it may have a weak rebound [3][35] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.78 with a change of - 0.04; Dubai's M1 - M2 spread is 0.69 with a change of 0.03 [37]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: Such as asphalt's basis is 251 with a change of 15 and 82300 warehouse receipts; high - sulfur fuel oil's basis is 150 with a change of 39 and 113980 warehouse receipts [38]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: For instance, 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 378 with a change of 60; 1 - month TA - EG spread is 344 with a change of 13 [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in a clear and unified manner in the given text

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-24 经贸前瞻改善，⾦价承压 中美开启新⼀轮经贸会谈，美⽇达成贸易协定，全球经贸前瞻改善，⾦价 承压。 重点资讯： 1）中美关税临时"休战"协议临近最后期限，双方即将展 开新一轮磋商。中国商务部周三公布，经中美双方商定， 国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行 经贸会谈。 2）美国总统特朗普与日本达成贸易协议，降低了日本汽车 进口关税，并免于对其他日本商品征收惩罚性新关税，作为 交换，日本承诺向美国提供5500亿美元的投资和贷款。 价格逻辑： 周三晚间，金价自3437美元/盎司回落，运行在月内高点下 方，因美国与日本达成贸易协议的乐观情绪削弱了市场对避 险资产的需求。特朗普宣布美日达成重大贸易协议，涵盖汽 车、大米等多个领域，并施加15%的对等关税，带动市场风 险偏好回暖，对金价构成压力。此外，中国商务部周三公 布，经中美双方商定，国务院副总理何立峰将于7月27日至3 0日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 与此同时，美元自两周低点小幅反弹，也促使部分资金流出 黄金市场。尽管如此，金价的下行仍受到限制：美元指 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that although the rumored news of investigating over - production in the coal industry is expected to have a limited impact, it will strengthen the market sentiment, making the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall. The recent coal price is driven by peak - season demand for a weak rebound, but the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market in the domestic coal industry has continued to ferment. On July 22, it was rumored that the National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a coal mine production situation verification in 8 key coal - producing provinces (regions), mainly checking for over - production. Mines with annual or monthly production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity will be ordered to suspend production for rectification. As of the time of publication, the notice was not found on the official website of the National Energy Administration [2]. Recent Coal Price Operation Logic - In 2025, from January to June, the national cumulative raw coal production was 240,456 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The coal price was weak, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports dropping from 770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 617 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. Recently, the coal market sentiment is strong, and the high - temperature cooling demand in summer has increased daily consumption, driving a weak rebound in prices. However, the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3]. Impact of Over - production Check News - Even though the impact of the over - production check news is expected to be limited, it will strengthen the market sentiment. Given that low - calorie coal has fallen below the cost line and there is a structural shortage of high - quality coal, the supply contraction expectation will make the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall [4]. Policy Implementation Difficulties - In the previous round of supply - side reform, the elimination of backward coal mine production capacity had achieved obvious results. The current mines mostly meet safety and environmental requirements, so the effect of anti - involution and over - production checks on reducing production cannot be compared with that of supply - side reform. Also, the coal industry accounts for a large proportion of the economy in key coal - producing provinces, so over - production checks may conflict with local economic growth goals [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-23 延续股强债弱格局 股指期权方面，昨日成交额70.28亿元，相较前一交易日上升30. 20%，流动性进一步上行。情绪指标方面，前一日提到持仓量PCR短期动量 效应仍存，同时各品种偏度数据基本延续前一日低位，看涨预期偏强， 因此方向层面仍可随市布局上涨。操作建议上，中短期可布局牛市价差， 主线维持备兑。 国债期货方面，债市延续偏弱表现，其背后仍受风险偏好抬升以及股 市表现偏强导致的股债跷跷板效应的影响。从资金面来看，昨日继续有所 转松，资金利率继续有所下行，DR001和DR007加权利率分别由1.36%和1. 49%降至1.31%和1.47%。不过资金面的转松并未对债市情绪形成太大提 振。后续来看，债市整体或仍需维持谨慎，短期利空因素较多，尤其是长 端可能受影响较大，可适当关注长端空头套保操作。 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性超预期；3）关税超预 期；4）供给超预期；5）货币宽松超预期 股指期货：沪指继续新⾼ 股指期权：⽇内⾼振幅带动短线交易 国债期货：股债跷跷板继续演绎 股指期货方面， 昨日整体飘 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-23 美联储独⽴性、关税担忧升温，⾦价冲 ⾼ 美联储独⽴性及关税担忧共振推动贵⾦属上⾏。 重点资讯： 1）美国财政部长贝森特 (Scott Bessent) 周一表示，特朗 普政府更关心贸易协议的质量，而不是其时机。8 月 1 日 是各国与美国达成贸易协议的最后期限，否则将面临高额关 税。 2）中国6月银行结售汇连续两个月录得顺差，顺差规模并扩 大至254亿美元创九个月来最高，这主要得益于货物贸易结 售汇和证券投资结售汇顺差的双双支撑；近期中美贸易战维 持休战状态，中国外贸延续较好表现，有利于结售汇保持均 衡。 3）欧盟外交官表示，随着与华盛顿达成可接受的贸易协议 的前景日渐渺茫，欧盟正在探索对美国采取更广泛的反制措 施。 4）美国总统特朗普和中国方面讨论了今年晚些时候特朗普 访问亚洲期间两国元首可能举行会晤的事宜。 5）美国财长贝森特：没有任何迹象表明鲍威尔现在应该辞 职。如果他想提前离职，则应该这样做。 价格逻辑： 黄金价格在周二晚间突破3400美元/盎司，白银突破前高39. 06美元/盎司。贵金属突破主要归因于美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3][7] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the macro - economic situation, both overseas and domestic, and provides short - term judgments on various futures products. Overseas, the fundamentals are relatively stable, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies and Fed policy. Domestically, the economy shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy support. For assets, there are structural opportunities in the domestic market, and long - term weak dollar trend is expected overseas [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The overseas fundamentals are relatively stable. The new Fed chairman's nomination may affect the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US tariff policies are expected to be implemented in early August. The US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data [7] - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 economic data showed resilience, with GDP and export growth exceeding market expectations. High - frequency data indicates an improvement in the investment side. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies. Current growth - stabilizing policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [7] - **Asset View**: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in Q4. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper is recommended [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for the "anti - involution" policy are difficult to be falsified, but there is a lack of incremental funds, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate the market. Option liquidity continues to deteriorate, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen. Attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Market expectations continue to improve, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8] - **Iron Ore**: Port arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories remained stable. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [8] - **Coke**: A second round of price increases is approaching, and the market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market was pulled up by macro - stimuli, and the coking coal futures price exceeded 1,000 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector performed strongly, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [8] - **Manganese Silicon**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [8] - **Glass**: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to heat up, and spot prices start to follow. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on spot sales [8] - **Soda Ash**: Concerns about aging facilities are rising, and the spot and futures markets are rising in tandem. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on soda ash inventories [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The implementation time of US tariffs on copper may be advanced, and the Shanghai copper price is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish stance, and domestic demand recovery [8] - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse receipts registration needs to be observed, and the alumina market is expected to decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and excessive electrolytic aluminum复产 [8] - **Aluminum**: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [8] - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black sector boosted the zinc price, and short - selling opportunities are recommended. The market is expected to decline, with attention on macro - risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8] - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventories are accumulating. The lead price is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8] - **Nickel**: The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse has been opened, and the nickel price is expected to decline in the long - term. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply shortages [8] - **Stainless Steel**: The nickel - iron price is weak, and the stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile, with attention on Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [8] - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price has strong bottom support. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8] - **Industrial Silicon**: The silicon price has rebounded under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are being hyped, and the lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile, with attention on insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] - **LPG**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price valuation has entered a severely overvalued stage, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on unexpected demand [10] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is under great downward pressure, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to decline following crude oil, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has continued to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10] - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is unbalanced, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis has stabilized, and devices are restarting. The market is expected to rise, with attention on ethylene glycol inventories [10] - **PX**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the PX market is expected to be volatile, with attention on crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10] - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened, and the cost of PX is strong. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on polyester production [10] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis has declined, and processing fees have rebounded. The market is expected to rise, with attention on terminal textile and clothing exports [10] - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on future bottle - chip production [10] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Plastic**: Spot support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - **Styrene**: There is no clear driving force, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the PVC market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [10] - **Caustic Soda**: Spot prices have peaked, and the caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [10] 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil continues to lead the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. The market is expected to rise, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10] - **Protein Meal**: After China and Australia signed a trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal market declined slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [10] - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supplies are locally tight, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on insufficient demand, macro - factors, and weather [10] - **Pigs**: Pig supplies are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10] - **Rubber**: There may be weather - related speculation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounded after a decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on significant crude oil price fluctuations [10] - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro - factors, and the pulp price is in a stalemate. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [10] - **Cotton**: The cotton price has increased with increased positions, and the 14,000 - yuan mark is being tested. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on demand and production [10] - **Sugar**: The sugar price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on abnormal weather [10] - **Logs**: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile. The market is expected to decline, with attention on shipping and delivery volumes [10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2025-07-23 反内卷进一步发酵，新能源金属价格走势偏 强 新能源观点：反内卷进⼀步发酵，新能源⾦属价格⾛势偏强 交易逻辑：中央财经会议重提有序淘汰落后产能，投资者对硅供应端 收缩预期增强，国内锂供应也出现扰动，市场情绪偏乐观，新能源金 属价格走势趋强。中短期来看，供应端收缩预期强化，新能源金属价 格偏强势，后续密切留意产业链动向，在乐观情绪没有消退前以谨慎 偏多思路对待，谨慎的投资者可继续考虑用期权押注多晶硅和碳酸锂 进一步潜在上涨机会；同时，也提醒下，需谨防政策预期短期无法兑 现但现实供需偏弱背景下，新能源金属价格双边波动风险。 ⼯业硅观点："反内卷"情绪⾼涨，硅价持续⾛⾼。 多晶硅观点：反内卷政策延续发酵，多晶硅价格延续抬升。 碳酸锂观点："反内卷"与供应扰动叠加，锂价短期偏强。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the black building materials industry are rated as "oscillating", with some showing "oscillating and strengthening" trends. Specific varieties and ratings include: steel (oscillating and strengthening), iron ore (oscillating and strengthening), scrap steel (oscillating), coke (oscillating and strengthening), coking coal (oscillating and strengthening), glass (oscillating), soda ash (oscillating), ferrosilicon (oscillating and strengthening), and ferromanganese (oscillating and strengthening) [8][9][12][13][15][16] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, both supply and demand sides of the black building materials industry have introduced stimulus policies. The Yajiang Hydropower Project has enhanced the expectation of infrastructure development, and there are news of over - production inspections in coal mines. The price of black building materials has continued to rise significantly. The mid - stream is actively replenishing stocks, resulting in a shortage of spot resources. Although the terminal demand has not reached the peak season for verification, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the prices will oscillate at a high level. The subsequent focus will be on policy implementation and the performance of terminal demand during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - Core logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, there are disturbances in the coal supply side, and the cost support is strong. The expectation of stable growth in ten key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has brought positive demand expectations. The macro - sentiment is warming up, speculative demand is released periodically, and the spot price is rising. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory began to accumulate; the supply of hot - rolled coils decreased while demand increased, and inventory started to decline; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The inventory is at a relatively low level in history, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel in the off - season are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials under the background of high hot metal production, positive news keeps emerging, and the macro - sentiment continues to warm up. The futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term [8] Iron Ore - Core logic: Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has slightly increased, and the hot metal output of steel enterprises has rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory of iron ore has remained stable, the berthing volume has decreased, the steel mill inventory has slightly increased, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, there have been many positive news, the market sentiment is good, and with a good fundamental situation, the futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply is stable. There is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [2][8] Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel is tight this week as the arrival volume has decreased. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills has slightly decreased, but the profit of electric furnaces has improved, which may drive the resumption of production of electric furnaces. The hot metal output of blast furnaces has slightly increased, the price of iron ore has risen significantly, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steel mills has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long and short processes has rebounded. The inventory of steel mills has slightly accumulated. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and recently, driven by the macro - sentiment, the black plate has oscillated upwards, and the spot price of scrap steel has followed the upward trend. - Outlook: The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and resources are tight. It is expected that the price will follow the trend of the plate [9] Coke - Core logic: Yesterday, coke producers in the production areas initiated the second round of price increases for coke. Affected by the rumor of coal mine over - production inspections, the market sentiment was high, and the main coke contract hit the daily limit. On the supply side, although the first - round price increase was implemented last week, the continuous sharp rise in coal prices has compressed the profit margin of coke enterprises, and coke production is under pressure. On the demand side, the high hot metal output supports rigid demand, steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. At the same time, the futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies, resulting in a continuous decline in the coke inventory of coke enterprises. - Outlook: The demand for coke is strong, the cost support is strong, and the market sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [12] Coking Coal - Core logic: Yesterday, the news of coal mine over - production inspections spread in the market, triggering expectations of supply - side changes. Some coal mines in the main production areas that were previously shut down due to maintenance or accidents are gradually resuming production, but there are still coal mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground problems, and domestic coal supply is still subject to disturbances. The China - Mongolia port has fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. The demand for coking coal is strong, downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the inventory of some coal types is in short supply, and the coal mine inventory is continuously decreasing. - Outlook: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventory, the spot market is generally strong, and with the warming market sentiment, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [3][11][12] Glass - Core logic: The demand for glass in the off - season is declining, and the demand for deep - processing products has continued to weaken month - on - month. This week, downstream enterprises generally replenished stocks at the beginning of the month, and the production and sales were good, but the sustainability remains to be observed. After the futures price rises, it may stimulate speculative demand. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but the market sentiment is highly volatile. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase today, downstream and mid - stream enterprises continue to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policy continues to exceed expectations, the downstream expectation may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishing price increases. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed, and the glass market is expected to oscillate [13] Soda Ash - Core logic: Affected by the continuous increase in the "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures price has risen, driving the spot price to follow the upward trend. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although some soda ash plants are under maintenance today and the overall output has decreased, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is still poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. There are planned maintenance activities in July, and supported by the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote production capacity reduction [15] Ferromanganese - Core logic: After the release of the energy bureau's over - production inspection document, the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, and the bullish sentiment in the black market has risen again. The ferromanganese futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has been further raised. On the cost side, coke has entered the price - increase cycle, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese. The market sentiment is positive, port miners are actively supporting prices, and the price of manganese ore is firm. On the supply side, the profitability of manufacturers has improved, the driving force for resumption of production has increased, and the daily output of ferromanganese has continued to rise for 8 weeks. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of ferromanganese are not significant at present. Recently, the market bullish sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the main production areas [16] Ferrosilicon - Core logic: After the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, the valuation of carbon elements has increased, strengthening the cost support expectation for ferrosilicon. The futures price of ferrosilicon has risen significantly, and the spot price has been further raised. On the supply side, although the industry profit has been repaired recently, the pace of resumption of production of manufacturers is slow, but there is room for an increase in the industry's operating rate in the future. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, the trading activity has increased, magnesium producers are actively supporting prices, and the price of magnesium ingots has been raised. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. Recently, the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ferrosilicon manufacturers [17]