投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-03 油⽓价格回落，化⼯成本⽀撑减弱 据路透，特朗普表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行对话，美伊局势缓和预期带 动原油地缘溢价快速回落。另一方面，路透显示美国气温趋缓带动天然气 高位回落，前期取暖需求及油气替代的利多因素同步消退。Kpler数据显 示2月1日当周全球原油库存自低点大幅回升，随着CPC发运量底部回升， 俄罗斯港口原油发运量已回升至同期高位，路透显示目前哈萨克斯坦油田 仍处复产期，2月1日前已恢复20%产能。原油现实层面的供应压力仍在， 美伊局势主导短线波动，若地缘担忧持续缓和，仍存向下压力，对油化工 可能形成阶段性拖累。 板块逻辑： 原油价格下挫，2月2日能化板块中油品系跌幅居首。聚酯开工快速回 落，PTA加工费阶段性承压，纯苯及苯乙烯后续存去库预期，价格预计震 荡偏强。伊朗担忧减弱后，甲醇、燃料油均有地缘溢价消退，烯烃端虽年 内仍面临供应增量，但短期存在检修支撑。整体来看，化工预计表现震 荡，持续关注成本端指引。（以上数据及信息来源为路透、隆众及CCF） 原油：供应压力仍在，地缘主导节奏 沥青：原油重挫，沥青期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The outlook for stock index futures is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [6] - The outlook for stock index options is "oscillating with a slight downward bias" [6] - The outlook for treasury bond futures is "oscillating" [7] 2. Core Views - Stock index futures: The liquidity crunch in commodities has spread to the stock market, and short - term risk avoidance is needed. Although the medium - term inflation theme in China still holds, in the short term, it is necessary to avoid volatility risks. The market style may shift to value and dividend stocks. It is recommended to switch IC long positions to IH long positions or reduce positions for defense. Later, pay attention to sector catch - up opportunities, and consider switching positions to IM long positions [1][6]. - Stock index options: The hedging sentiment in options is prominent, while the sentiment for betting on a rebound is not significant. It is recommended to continue holding protective put hedges and wait for a downward inflection point in volatility before reducing positions or deploying selling option strategies [2][6]. - Treasury bond futures: The long - end of the bond market shows a relatively strong trend. The long - end interest rate trend is still unclear and may remain oscillating. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage, especially the convergence opportunity of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds [3][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - Logic: On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and declined, with a one - sided decline of nearly 2.5%. The market priced in the liquidity crunch, mainly due to the spread of external commodity markets. International gold and silver prices continued to decline sharply on the night of last Friday. The Fed's possible actions may lead to a steeper interest rate curve and a stronger US dollar. On Monday, domestic commodities continued to price in the external decline, and many commodity varieties hit the daily limit down, accelerating the negative feedback through margin calls. Although the medium - term inflation theme in China still holds, short - term volatility risks need to be avoided. The market style may shift to value and dividend stocks [1][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold IH long positions or dividend ETFs [6]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - Logic: On Monday, the underlying market adjusted with a shrinking volume and a gap - down. The total daily trading volume of financial options increased slightly to 17.14 billion yuan, reaching a recent high. The IV of each variety rose by more than 2.5 percentage points, reaching a high in the past quarter. The buying put hedging sentiment was prominent, while the sentiment for betting on a rebound was general [2][6]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold protective put hedges [6]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - Logic: The performance of treasury bond futures was divided yesterday, with the TL contract strengthening while T and TF were under pressure, and TS remaining stable. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed a divided trend, with the long - end slightly declining and the short - end rising, flattening the yield curve. There are still blockages in liquidity transmission, and the central bank's subsequent actions need to be observed. The traditional logic of "trading bonds based on stocks" or "commodity inflation suppressing interest rates" is less effective. The "stock - bond co - warming" pattern has emerged due to the re - allocation of residents' assets. The long - end interest rate trend is still unclear and may remain oscillating [3][7]. - Operation Suggestion: Trend strategy: oscillating. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to ultra - long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y spread in the short term [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market has been affected by macro factors such as the Fed's interest rate decision, the nomination of the next Fed chair, and changes in the US dollar index. There was a panic sell - off in non - ferrous metals, but short - term panic has been released. If precious metals stop falling or base metals stabilize, there may be opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. In the long term, the potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply - related issues still support the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have their own characteristics. For example, copper prices have dropped significantly due to the rebound of the US dollar index, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is positive; alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply; aluminum prices have corrected significantly due to fluctuating capital sentiment, but are expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Current situation**: In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1155300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On February 2, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. The social copper inventory was 335900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5500 tons. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Logic**: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair led to a rapid rise in the US dollar index and a large adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the spot TC of copper concentrate continues to decline. The long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Terminal demand is weak during the off - season, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term [8]. Alumina - **Current situation**: On January 29, 2026, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2402 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. The current average spot price is much lower than at the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity faces losses, leading to an intensified expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is insufficient in reality, and the prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price is stronger than the spot price, but there is also pressure above [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile [9]. Aluminum - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23723 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 922 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14000 tons. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 150459 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5388 tons [10][12][13]. - **Logic**: The US January interest rate meeting was neutral, and Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Fed chair reduced short - term risk appetite, but the macro expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. Overseas, the Indonesian project is in line with expectations, but there are still constraints on medium - term supply expansion. The weekly initial operating rate has decreased, and high prices suppress demand. The exchange's aluminum ingot delivery has expanded, and the weekly social inventory has continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium - term [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the price of ADC12 was 23300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight in the short - term, providing strong cost support. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the medium - term tax return policy and tax transfer may still constrain supply. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy has decreased. High prices suppress downstream demand in the short - term, and the inventory has accumulated [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [15]. Zinc - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was - 15 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons [16]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest rate decision was in line with expectations, but Trump's nomination of the next Fed chair led to a change in the macro expectation. The decline in zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short - term, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand expectation is average [17]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [17]. Lead - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16575 - 16675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 225 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 39000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 29418 tons, unchanged from the previous period [19]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead has remained stable. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has narrowed, resulting in a slight decrease in production. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, while the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [19]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile [19]. Nickel - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel were 46574 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 302 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285528 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 756 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [20]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is still under pressure as the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and the production of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high. The demand has entered the traditional off - season. The stainless steel production has increased slightly due to profit repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [20]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [20]. Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 43758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 830 yuan/ton to the stainless steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [21]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron has recovered, and the cost of stainless steel still has some support. The stainless steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. The social inventory has slightly accumulated, and there may still be pressure on inventory during the off - season [21]. - **Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [22]. Tin - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 7095 tons, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 30 tons to 8524 tons, and the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 3262 lots to 92297 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 428550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10150 yuan/ton [22]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in Wa State may be alleviated, but the supply in Indonesia is still restricted in the short - term, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo exacerbates supply concerns. In the future, the supply of tin ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The processing fee of tin concentrate has increased, reflecting the increased financial pressure of some smelters. The demand for tin in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries continues to rise, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt [22]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be watched out for [23]. Market Monitoring - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 - index and the industrial products index), and the sector index (non - ferrous metals index) all showed different degrees of decline. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of - 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of - 4.88%, and a 1 - month increase of + 0.88% and the same increase since the beginning of the year [150][152].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 ⼯业硅观点：市场情绪反复，硅价震荡运⾏。 多晶硅观点：政策预期反复，多晶硅价格延续震荡。 碳酸锂观点：资⾦情绪悲观，锂价明显回调。 ⻛险提⽰：供应扰动；国内政策刺激超预期；美联储鸽派不及预期； 国内需求复苏不及预期；经济衰退。 中信期货研究（新能源⾦属每⽇报告） 2026-02-03 恐慌性情绪蔓延，碳酸锂领跌新能源金 属 新能源观点：恐慌性情绪蔓延，碳酸锂领跌新能源⾦属 交易逻辑：碳酸锂供需供需延续偏紧格局，江西部分锂矿复产预期继 续延后，供应扰动担忧持续；工业硅和多晶硅供需趋松，但工业硅和 多晶硅企业主动控制产量适应走弱的需求。短期来看，有色整体恐慌 情绪蔓延到新能源金属，碳酸锂领跌新能源金属；中期来看，政策预 期反复，新能源金属宽幅震荡。长期来看，硅供应端收缩预期较强， 尤其多晶硅，价格重心可能抬升；锂矿产能还处于上升阶段，但需求 预期也在不断拔高，供需过剩量预期在收窄，供需改善预期将推高价 格重心。 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号F03088415 投资咨询号Z0016667 杨飞 从业资格号F03108013 投资咨询号Z0021455 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term view of a bullish trend for platinum and palladium, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of prices trending upwards in a volatile manner [2][3][4] Core View - The precious metals market sentiment was pressured, and prices significantly corrected due to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the Fed Chair and CME's increase in margin standards. As of February 2, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 552.15 yuan/gram, a decline of 16.0%, and the GFEX palladium main contract was 413.7 yuan/gram, also a 16.0% decline [1] - For platinum, although short - term factors pressure the price, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider low - buying opportunities, and also pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens. The supply in South Africa has risks, and the demand in various fields is expanding [2] - For palladium, the short - term price corrected due to market sentiment cooling, and the long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but the short - term price bottom is stable. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Movement**: The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 552.15 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Kevin Warsh's nomination and CME's margin increase pressured the price. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. South Africa has supply risks, and demand in various fields is expanding [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term investors should wait and see. After the price stabilizes, consider low - buying. Also, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens [2] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [3] Palladium - **Price Movement**: The GFEX palladium main contract closed at 413.7 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term market sentiment decline led to price correction. Long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but short - term price bottom is stable due to factors like tight spot supply [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [4] Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% on February 2, 2026 [51] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2709.50, with a daily decline of 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of 4.88%, a 1 - month increase of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.88% [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Gold's short - term price may continue to adjust, but its long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver also enters a short - term adjustment period with high volatility risks, and its long - term upward support is still strong. The "Wash trade" is a short - term catalyst for the market adjustment, but it is difficult to cause a trend - based negative impact on precious metals [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Gold Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period after overheating, while the long - term upward logic remains intact [2]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in gold prices is mainly due to technical adjustments caused by overcrowded long - positions and the "Wash trade". Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, was nominated as the next Fed chair on January 30, and his hawkish stance (supporting rate cuts but also advocating balance - sheet reduction) led to market concerns. However, his nomination is unlikely to cause a long - term negative impact on precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: Gold's long - term upward trend is still supported [2]. Silver Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period, and high - volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in silver prices is due to technical corrections caused by over - buying and crowded trading, and the "Wash trade" has intensified the adjustment. The decline in the London silver spot leasing rate and the reduction in global silver ETF holdings also slow down the bullish drivers on the spot side [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has strong long - term bullish support [3]. Market Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On February 2, 2026, the commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4447.17, with a daily decline of 11.27%, a 5 - day decline of 10.91%, a one - month increase of 16.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.29% [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating for the entire industry is provided in the report. However, individual outlooks for each commodity are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to trade sideways [6]. - Protein Meal: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to trade sideways [9]. - Corn and Starch: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [12]. - Hogs: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. - Natural Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [17]. - Synthetic Rubber: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. - Cotton: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [20]. - Sugar: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms [21]. - Pulp: Expected to trade sideways [22]. - Double - Gum Paper: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. - Logs: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market has turned negative recently, affecting the prices of various agricultural products. - Different agricultural products are influenced by a combination of macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and seasonal patterns [1][6][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Macro sentiment has weakened, leading to a significant correction in oil prices. - **Logic**: Crude oil decline and overall commodity market weakness have affected sentiment. For soybeans, Argentina's drought may reduce production, while the US biodiesel policy is yet to be finalized. Palm oil lacks new positive news after the previous rally. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to gradually recover. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to trade sideways. Consider buying on dips for hedging [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: Market sentiment is weak, and both soybean and rapeseed meals are trading lower. - **Logic**: Internationally, the macro environment has cooled, and the US soybean export is weak, while Brazil's harvest is increasing. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal is under pressure, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to improve. - **Outlook**: Both soybean and rapeseed meals are expected to trade sideways [8][9]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end, and both futures and spot prices are trading weakly. - **Logic**: Downstream stocking is almost finished, and policy - grain auctions have lower trading rates. There are marginal negative factors such as increased upstream sales, sufficient downstream inventory, and the impact of imported grains. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [9][11][12]. Hogs - **View**: At the beginning of the month, the slaughter volume is slightly reduced, but inventory pressure remains. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large hogs will be slaughtered as the Spring Festival approaches. In the medium - term, supply will be excessive until April 2026. In the long - term, supply pressure may ease after May 2026. Demand and inventory show certain changes. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the short - term, with potential for a turnaround in H2 2026 [13]. Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity atmosphere has turned negative, and rubber prices have followed suit. - **Logic**: The previous rally was driven by macro factors, and there has been no change in fundamentals. The current trading is mainly influenced by macro factors. Supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has not seen large - scale restocking. The most obvious negative factor is rapid inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Although fundamental variables are limited, market attention has increased, and the market is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias [15][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The medium - term logic remains unchanged. - **Logic**: The market was affected by the overall commodity sentiment, but the medium - term core logic of tight supply of butadiene in H1 2026 remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of butadiene is expected to improve, but short - term adjustments are needed. It is expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the medium - term [19]. Cotton - **View**: It has adjusted downward following macro expectations, but the downward space is expected to be limited. - **Logic**: Supply - side processing is nearing completion, demand is weakening as the Spring Festival approaches, and inventory is still accumulating but at a slower pace. In the long - term, the market is expected to be tight - balanced in 25/26, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decline. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. Consider buying on dips [20]. Sugar - **View**: It is expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias in the long - and medium - terms. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with major producers expected to increase production. - **Outlook**: Consider short - selling on rallies [21]. Pulp - **View**: While most commodities have declined significantly, pulp has shown resistance. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market has affected pulp, but its decline is relatively limited. Demand is seasonally weakening, and there are more negative factors, but the increase in import costs provides some support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade sideways [22]. Double - Gum Paper - **View**: The decline in the commodity market has put pressure on double - gum paper. - **Logic**: The market is following the macro trend. Before the Spring Festival, there is no clear upward or downward driver, with abundant supply, weak demand, and reduced cost support. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade weakly with a sideways bias [24]. Logs - **View**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the market is trading strongly. - **Logic**: The expected increase in the next - period foreign quotation and the decrease in arrivals at major ports have led to a stronger spot market. There are also potential positive factors in the delivery aspect. - **Outlook**: Expected to trade strongly with a sideways bias in the short - term [25]. 4. Commodity Index Data - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities was 2420.95, down 3.75%. The commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%, and the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62%. - The agricultural products index was 936.74 on February 2, 2026, with a daily decline of 0.79%, a 5 - day decline of 0.76%, a monthly increase of 0.40%, and a YTD increase of 0.40% [185][187].

中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 地缘溢价大幅回吐,美伊局势主导油价 r 发 网 动态 2026年2月2日,原油期货主力合约下跌7.02%。 同时报警 下跌原因 据央视新闻报道。2月1日伊朗官员表示伊斯兰革命卫队没有在霍尔木兹海峡进行演习的计划，伊朗正在与美国"进行对话"，前期美伊局势紧张引发的地缘溢价有所消退。 基本咱情况 当前原油市场基本面难言乐观。Kpler数据显示2月1日当周全球原油年存大幅回升，陷透报道及数据显示前期闹低的哈萨克斯坦供应当前处回升阶段，炼厂高开工下成品油库存在力偏大、中东原 油现货贴水趋弱。前期期价主要受伊朗局势担忧提振，基本面相对偏弱则限制上方空间。 基本面仍处供应过剩，但伊朗地缘局势对供应预期的潜在找动较为频繁，关注后期美伊谈判进展。若伊朗局势持续缓和，油价则有望延续回落。 风险提示 风险因素:极端天气;地缘局势;意外断供。 图表 1:海外样本地区成品油总库存李节性 全球陆地+海上(含在途)原油库存 十八 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 百万桶 4900000 580 48000000 560 ...

Report Summary 1. Key Data on Bond Issuance - This week, the issuance of new special bonds was 193.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 128.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 134.3 billion yuan [4] - As of January 31st, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in January was 367.7 billion yuan [6] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 39.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 18.6 billion yuan, and the planned issuance for next week is 75.5 billion yuan [9] 2. Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 310.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 107.7 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 579.4 billion yuan [11] - This week, the net financing scale of national bonds was - 113.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 457.6 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 142 billion yuan [14] - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 197.5 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 349.9 billion yuan, and the planned net financing for next week is 721.4 billion yuan [16]