1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The pressure on the real - world end still exists, and the performance of the futures market is under pressure. Although steel is in the off - season and continues to destock, with the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage restocking, there is support for furnace materials. However, the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils remains, the downstream restocking willingness is low, the iron ore port inventory accumulates, and the inventory of the coking coal and coke industry chain increases. The fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market performance is under pressure. In the short term, the futures market is under pressure, but there is still room for a rebound at low levels after the weak adjustment before spring due to the winter storage restocking expectation [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory has increased significantly, iron water production is basically stable, steel mills make small - scale restocking, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate. The overseas mine shipments have decreased slightly month - on - month, the arrivals this period have decreased month - on - month, and the demand side has seen a slight recovery in the steel mill profit rate, but the restocking demand release is still slow [2][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Supply is weak and demand is stable. Steel mills are destocking, and the fundamentals are marginally strengthening. Short - term electric furnace profits are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from short - process steel enterprises still has support. It is expected that the spot price will oscillate. This week's arrivals are low, the daily consumption of steel enterprises is stable, the inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and the total inventory has decreased slightly [2][8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. After January, there is an expectation of steel mill复产. With the gradual start of winter storage restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may gradually tighten. The fundamentals still support the price, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and after January, the import pressure will ease. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and there is still room for the futures market valuation to repair [2] - **Coking Coal**: Before the parade, the coal mine production is tightened, and the futures market oscillates. The overall production has declined, and the spot price has slightly decreased. The supply is affected by accidents, safety inspections, and self - initiated production cuts. The import is still at a high level, and the demand has slightly declined in the short term. The futures market is expected to be supported before the parade, and the short - term fundamentals' contradiction is not prominent [10][11][12] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand pattern of loose supply continues, the upstream inventory pressure is obvious, which suppresses the upward space of the futures market. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost has slightly loosened, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply contraction is insufficient to achieve high - level destocking [15] - **Ferrosilicon**: The upstream supply pressure is gradually alleviating, but the market has weak supply and demand in the terminal off - season. It is difficult for the ferrosilicon futures price to have an independent upward trend. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. The cost is at a relatively high level, the demand from steel mills and the metal magnesium industry is weak, and the supply has decreased significantly [17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply still has the expectation of disturbance, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The macro is neutral, the supply is under pressure in the long term but difficult to have a large number of cold repairs in the short term, and the demand is weak [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction. The daily production has rebounded, the demand is weakening, and the industry is in the stage of clearing out at the bottom of the cycle [3][13][15] 3.5 Steel - The spot market transactions are generally weak. Steel mill profitability has improved, iron water production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the decline in the output of the five major steel products has slowed down. The off - season demand has declined seasonally, but there is still support for demand. The overall steel inventory continues to destock, but the mid - stream inventory level is still higher year - on - year, and there is an expectation of weakening demand. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate at a low level [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial product index was 2254.18, down 0.17%. The steel industry chain index on December 25, 2025, was 1976.20, with a daily decline of 0.24%, a five - day increase of 0.29%, a one - month decline of 0.20%, and a year - to - date decline of 6.26% [103][105]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-26 股市热点轮动，债市预期反复 股指期货：沪指七连涨，热点轮动快 股指期权：波动低位运⾏，市场⽆过多担忧 国债期货：宽货币预期反复 股指期货方面，周四沪指收获七连涨，鉴于北向休假而全市场成交额 环比持平，实际放量近2000亿元。向上高度受制于缺乏主线，热点轮动较 快，指数呈现小步慢走。早盘保险强势，受益于央行货政例会，大市值中 期将迎增量资金；后续商业航天接力，国防军工板块再度领涨，板块博弈 属性加强。而贵金属、能源金属板块跟随商品价格调整，波动变大，导致 有色行业领跌。内资主导环境中，预计仍以板块热点炒作为主，预计年末 难出现系统性机会，保留多头仓位，等待元旦后的加仓机会，暂以高股 息、涨价链作为配置主线，大市值优于小市值。 股指期权方面，周四标的市场延续乐观表现，500ETF及中证1000领 涨，其余品种基本收涨，期权市场总成交额70.80亿元，相较前一日下降 7.55%，基本仍处于缩量通道。情绪指标方面，关注到近日各品种比值PCR 基本低位运行，同时偏度指数也相对较低，认沽整体成交偏虚，且没有明 显波动抬 ...

Group 1: Report on Platinum and Palladium Market Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium prices showed a divergent trend. The GFEX platinum main contract closed higher at 686.95 yuan/gram, up 4.51%, while the palladium main contract closed at 529.05 yuan/gram, down 7.65%. With the approaching Christmas and New Year holidays, some funds started to take profits after a significant rally, and there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of large price fluctuations at high levels [1]. - For platinum, due to spot shortages and relatively loose market liquidity, the price trend is strong. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, and the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point. The "rate cut + soft landing" combination will further amplify the long - term price elasticity. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward, but in the short term, the price is highly volatile at high levels [1][2]. - For palladium, the tightness in the spot market has eased, and the price has significantly corrected. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, the short - term spot shortage keeps the price firm, and the bottom of the palladium price has certain support [3]. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX platinum main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 54.4 yuan/gram, much higher than the import cost, and there is a risk - free arbitrage opportunity. However, due to issues such as hedging quota restrictions, the short - term spread may still be high [1]. - **Supply**: South Africa, the main global supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather in the future [1]. - **Demand**: The demand in the automotive catalyst field remains relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and the demand for jewelry and investment is expanding [1]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, it is recommended that long - position holders gradually take profits or wait and see. The strategy of long platinum and short palladium can be held or temporarily take profits, and opportunities for internal - external positive arbitrage can be seized [2]. Palladium - **Price and Spread**: On December 24, the premium of the GFEX palladium main contract at the domestic closing time over the NYMEX palladium (tax - included) was as high as 58.0 yuan/gram [3]. - **Supply**: The Russian geopolitical issue is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, and the report has not been released, causing a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions [3]. - **Demand**: Palladium shows significant structural pressure [3]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate upward. In the short term, palladium may have entered an adjustment phase, and it is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for the price to correct [3]. Group 2: Report on Commodity Index Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints On December 25, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index all declined slightly, and the有色金属 index also declined slightly on that day but had a positive increase in the past 5 days, 1 month, and year - to - date [48][50]. Summary by Related Content - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2327.86, down 0.14%; the commodity 20 index was 2669.31, down 0.12%; the industrial products index was 2254.18, down 0.17% [48]. - **有色金属 Index**: On December 25, the有色金属 index was 2629.88, with a daily decline of 0.26%, a 5 - day increase of 2.25%, a 1 - month increase of 6.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 13.93% [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 25th, equity index futures rose while CGB futures declined; most commodities advanced, with Poly-Silicon, Platinum, and Silver leading the gains, and Palladium, Nickel, and Tin leading the decliners [2][10][12]. - TikTok will establish a joint venture in the United States, and the Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests [1][37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 25th, equity index futures rose (IC rose by 1.0%, IM rose by 1.2%), CGB futures declined (TL dropped by 0.2%), most commodities advanced. The top three gainers in commodity futures were Poly-Silicon (up 4.8% with a 4.0% month-on-month increase in open interest), Platinum (up 4.5% with a 3.9% month-on-month rise in open interest), and Silver (up 2.6% with a 12.8% month-on-month decrease in open interest). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 7.7% with a 10.5% month-on-month decrease in open interest), Nickel (down 1.2% with a 5.1% month-on-month decline in open interest), and Tin (down 1.2% with a 5.0% month-on-month reduction in open interest) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Platinum**: On December 25, it rose 4.5% to 686.95 yuan per gram. In the medium to long term, the Federal Reserve's independence and liquidity easing provide upside momentum, supply disruption risks exist, and demand will expand steadily. A long-term bullish view is maintained. In the short term, it has entered a correction phase, with expected trading ranges of 1,800 - 2,400 USD per ounce for NYMEX platinum and 510 - 700 CNY per gram for GFEX platinum. Bull positions are recommended to gradually reduce holdings. Opportunities to go long on platinum and short on palladium are suggested when the platinum-palladium spread is low, and inter-market arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets should be monitored [17][18][19]. - **Silver**: On December 25, it rose 2.6% to 17,397 yuan per kilogram. It is in an accelerated rally, with a monthly gain of over 40% since late November and a 2025 gain nearing 150%. Short-term two-way volatility risks exist, and position risk management is needed. In 2026, the gold-silver bull market will continue, and silver's upside potential will be fully unlocked, with London spot silver targeting 50 - 100 USD/oz [26][27][28]. 3.1.3 Daily Dropped - **Palladium**: On December 25th, it fell 7.7% to 529.05 yuan per gram. In 2026, global palladium mine production and refined production are projected to rise by 0.3% and 2.1% respectively, while demand is expected to drop by 1.7%. A 16.9-tonne surplus in supply relative to demand is anticipated. It is in a long-term oversupply situation but has some downside support in the short term. NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate within 1,650 - 2,000 USD per ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 CNY per gram. Previously, bull positions were advised to reduce holdings [31][32][33]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The Chinese government hopes enterprises reach a solution compliant with Chinese laws and regulations and balanced in interests regarding TikTok's plan to establish a joint venture in the US [37]. - China firmly opposes the US imposition of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products and has lodged strong representations [38]. - China actively promotes and facilitates compliant trade regarding possible relaxation of restrictions on rare earth magnet exports to the US [39].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-26 市场担忧供应，豆粕盘面近月领涨 油脂：昨日震荡偏强，关注上方技术阻力 蛋白粕：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 玉米/淀粉：缺乏驱动，市场僵持 生猪：年底供需博弈，猪价震荡 天然橡胶：胶价继续向上突破，短期或维持偏强 合成橡胶：消息面刺激有限，盘面高位回落 棉花：政策预期部分落地，棉价延续攀升 白糖：阶段性触底后，糖价反弹 纸浆：持续横盘震荡，现货维持偏弱 双胶纸：纸企相继发布涨价函，双胶底部存支撑 原木：底部存在支撑，原木低位区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 风险因素：进口政策，南美天气，贸易战，宏观。 农业团队 【异动品种】 蛋白粕观点：市场担忧供应，盘面近月领涨 逻辑：国际方面，海外圣诞节，美豆休市。USDA数据显示，美豆11月压榨 量环比走低，对华出口增长缓慢。巴西大豆播种近尾声，阿根廷大豆播种 过半。布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至12月17日，阿根廷 2025/26年度大豆播种完成67.3%，高于一周前的58.6%。南美大豆产量前 景乐观，未来15天降水略多，温度略低。 ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Report's Core View - Silver has entered an accelerated upswing phase, and short - term two - way volatility risks need attention. The quarterly bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact, and the 2026 target range for silver is raised. In 2026, the long - term bull market in gold and silver will continue, and silver's upside elasticity is likely to be released [6][8][9]. Summary by Related Content Event - On December 24, silver surged sharply again. SHFE silver recorded an intraday gain of 8.12%, while SHFE gold edged higher with an intraday increase of 0.63% [4]. Outlook - **Short - term situation**: Since late November, silver has risen by more than 40% monthly, and year - to - date gains in 2025 are approaching 150%. Its current volatility has reached the highest level of the year but still has room for expansion compared with 2024 and 2020. Near - term event - driven factors may amplify two - way price volatility, such as the New Year holiday, the announcement of the next Federal Reserve Chair nominee, and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index [6][8]. - **Quarterly situation**: The bullish logic for gold and silver remains intact. Liquidity - driven trading is the core driver at the quarterly level, and the period between the nomination and assumption of office of the new Federal Reserve Chair is a favorable window for trading liquidity expectations. The LBMA silver lease rates remain elevated, indicating a persistent tightness in the physical silver market [6][8]. - **2026 outlook**: The narrative of USD credit contraction will continue to dominate the long - term bull market in gold and silver. The global economy may transition from a soft landing to a mild recovery, pro - cyclical assets will benefit, the gold - silver ratio has room to decline, and silver's upside elasticity is likely to be released. The 2026 forecast range for silver is raised, and if a short - squeeze occurs, LBMA silver prices could reach USD 50 - 100 per ounce. Gold is expected to maintain a choppy upward trajectory with a 2026 target range of USD 3,800 - 5,000 per ounce [6][7][9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, both platinum and palladium have entered the adjustment phase. For the long - term, a long - position view is maintained for platinum, while palladium's long - term supply - demand tends to loosen but the price bottom has some support [3][4][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 25, 2025, platinum and palladium futures prices dropped significantly. The platinum main contract opened 4.07% lower at 630.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract opened 8.54% lower at 523.95 yuan/gram. The sharp rise in platinum and palladium futures was due to market speculation, leading to the widening of spreads and the formation of risk - free arbitrage opportunities. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange implemented trading measures on December 23 to manage price risks. Also, some funds started taking profits before the Christmas and New Year holidays [3] Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: In 2026, with the rise in prices and profit recovery, major mining companies are expected to maintain stable production, but overall output is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 17.8 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and global palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 298.4 tons respectively. However, short - term supply risks from extreme weather, labor disputes, and power shortages should be watched [4] - **Demand**: In 2026, the global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum's industrial demand and the growth of jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may also be stimulated. Global platinum demand is expected to grow 0.7% to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand faces significant downward pressure and is expected to decline 2.7% to 282.4 tons [4] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage of global platinum supply and a 16.9 - ton surplus of global palladium supply [4] Summary and Strategy - **Platinum**: In the long - term, the Fed's policies and supply concentration give an upward drive to platinum prices, and demand will expand steadily. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity, so a long - position view is maintained. In the short - term, the NYMEX platinum is expected to fluctuate between 1800 - 2400 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX platinum between 510 - 700 yuan/gram. It is recommended that long - position holders gradually reduce their positions and wait for price rebounds. Also, when the platinum - palladium spread is low, it is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium, and continue to pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities [5] - **Palladium**: Long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term geopolitical issues in Russia keep the spot market tight. With the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle, the palladium price bottom has some support. The NYMEX palladium is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 2000 US dollars/ounce, and GFEX palladium between 460 - 600 yuan/gram. Palladium is also in the short - term adjustment phase, and long - position reduction has been previously suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities can still be monitored [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On December 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures stabilized, and most commodities advanced, with silver, platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate leading the gains [2][3][10] - Beijing adjusted housing purchase restrictions, and the PBOC emphasized continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy [3][32][34] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures (Futures Movements) 1.1 Overview - On December 24, equity index futures (IC rose 1.6%, IM rose 1.9%, TL rose 0%) rose, CGB futures stabilized. Most commodities advanced. Silver, platinum, and palladium were the top gainers in commodity futures, while SCFIS (Europe), poly-silicon, and soybean meal were the top decliners [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise (Rising Varieties) 1.2.1 Copper - On December 24, copper rose 2.3% to 96,100 yuan per ton. The Federal Reserve's rate - cut stance and balance - sheet expansion supported copper prices. Supply disruptions and low long - term contract TC/RCs tightened supply, but weak demand in the off - season limited price increases [16][17][18] 1.2.2 Iron Ore - On December 24, iron ore rose 0.3% to 779.5 yuan per ton. Overseas shipments decreased, arrivals at domestic ports declined, and demand for molten iron dropped. Port inventories increased, while steel mill inventories decreased, and the year - end inventory replenishment game intensified [21][22][24] 1.2.3 Steel Rebar - On December 24, steel rebar rose 0.1% to 3,136 yuan per ton. Environmental restrictions led to a decline in iron and steel production, but rebar production rebounded. Demand was supported by exports and rush construction, and overall steel inventories continued to decline, but current inventory levels remained higher year - on - year [27][28][29] 2. China News (Chinese News) 2.1 Macro News - The PBOC's Monetary Policy Committee emphasized continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy and strengthening counter - cyclical and inter - cyclical adjustments at its 2025 Q4 meeting [32][34] - Beijing adjusted housing purchase restrictions, easing home - buying conditions for non - registered families and unifying commercial loan rates for first and second homes [33][34] 2.2 Industry News - The PBOC and seven other departments supported exploring cross - border digital yuan payment pilots between the Chinese mainland and Singapore [35][37] - The SASAC stated that central SOEs should enhance listed company quality and market value management [36][37]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances affect the crude oil market, and the rebound of the chemical industry will be tortuous. The industry is expected to face challenges due to high inventories of liquid chemicals and geopolitical uncertainties [2][7] - Different energy and chemical products are expected to show various trends, including oscillation, rebound, and weakening, depending on factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situations, and cost support [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Russia's crude oil exports reach a two - and - a - half - year high, with high floating storage. Oil prices should be treated with an oscillatory approach [9] - **Main Logic**: International crude oil futures continue to oscillate. Geopolitical trends are crucial. More refineries start to buy Russian oil as the discount narrows, but floating storage is increasing. Refined oil crack spreads are weak, and the oil price should be seen as oscillatory [12] - **Outlook**: The crude oil market may return to a pattern of weak supply - demand and continuous inventory accumulation after geopolitical tensions ease. Investors should adopt an oscillatory view [12] Asphalt - **View**: South China asphalt spot is at a discount to Shandong, and asphalt futures prices oscillate [13] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产 in December, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the escalation of the US - Venezuela situation leads to expectations of raw material supply disruptions. The futures price oscillates widely. Also, high production in Hainan, South China's spot discount, and weak supply - demand all affect the price [13][14] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued [14] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices oscillate widely [3] - **Main Logic**: OPEC+增产, the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the tense US - Venezuela situation drive the rebound. However, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region suppresses demand, and refinery demand is weak in the off - season [14] - **Outlook**: Supply - demand is weak [14] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude oil to oscillate [14] - **Main Logic**: It follows crude oil, has strong product attributes, but faces negative factors such as falling shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Currently, the supply has unexpectedly decreased, pushing up the valuation [14] - **Outlook**: It follows crude oil fluctuations due to low valuation and various negative factors [14] PX - **View**: Rumors of polyester factories continue to ferment, and the increase in the price of PX has narrowed [16] - **Main Logic**: International oil prices oscillate upwards, providing cost support. The rise of downstream PTA also supports PX, but rumors of polyester factory production cuts limit the increase. The supply of PX is sufficient [16] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain high - level oscillation, with high profits. Caution is needed when chasing the price or short - selling [17] PTA - **View**: Rumors of polyester factory production cuts ferment, and the upward space is gradually narrowing [17] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is high, and PTA's spot and processing fees have recovered. However, rumors of production cuts in polyester factories may limit the continuous increase [18] - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to oscillate at a high level, and the processing fee will operate within a range [18] Pure Benzene - **View**: Supported by the strong external market, pure benzene oscillates [19] - **Main Logic**: The support comes from the external market, with US devices restarting. However, the domestic situation is poor, with high inventory pressure and a downward - adjusted future expectation [21] - **Outlook**: There is still inventory pressure, and the external market provides temporary support [21] Styrene - **View**: There are constraints on both rising and falling, and styrene oscillates [22] - **Main Logic**: It has been oscillating weakly recently due to negative feedback from downstream ABS. The lower support comes from the external pure benzene market, while the upper limit is due to pure benzene inventory pressure and the upcoming inventory build - up of styrene [23] - **Outlook**: It is about to enter a period of inventory build - up, with obvious upper - limit constraints. Export transactions may stimulate short - term rebounds [23] Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Overseas device shutdowns and capital sentiment disturbances lead to a low - level rebound of ethylene glycol [24] - **Main Logic**: After hitting a new low, the price rebounds due to supply adjustments such as the planned shutdown of Taiwan's devices. However, the inventory build - up period has not ended, and demand may be dragged down by polyester factory production cuts [26] - **Outlook**: The short - term price will maintain range - bound oscillation, and the rebound height is limited [26] Short - Fiber - **View**: The pattern of strong upstream and weak downstream is prominent, with serious differentiation and compressed profits [27] - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is strong, but the downstream demand is weak, resulting in compressed profits. The absolute price follows the upstream cost to oscillate [28] - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to oscillate strongly, and the processing fee is under short - term pressure [28] Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: The price is supported by upstream raw material costs [29] - **Main Logic**: The upstream costs of TA and EG increase, providing support. The market trading atmosphere is okay, and the price follows the raw materials to oscillate strongly in the short term [29] - **Outlook**: The absolute price fluctuates with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support [29] Methanol - **View**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market is stalemate. Methanol should be seen as oscillatory [32] - **Main Logic**: There is a significant differentiation between the inland and coastal markets. The inland supply is abundant, and the coastal inventory is high, suppressing the price [33] - **Outlook**: Short - term wide - range oscillation [33] Urea - **View**: Supported by compound fertilizer and export demand, the futures price oscillates strongly [33] - **Main Logic**: Environmental restrictions on supply end have ended, and demand from compound fertilizer and exports provides support. The inventory has decreased [34] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation is strong, but it may not last long. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operations [34] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The futures price rebounds, the basis weakens, and LLDPE should be treated with an oscillatory view [37] - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounds. Geopolitical factors cause short - term fluctuations, while the fundamental support is limited. The demand is entering the off - season [37] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [38] PP - **View**: Slight increase in maintenance, PP oscillates [38] - **Main Logic**: PDH profits are under pressure, and there is an expectation of increased maintenance. Geopolitical factors affect short - term fluctuations, and the supply pressure is high due to the off - season and high inventory [38] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PL - **View**: Supported by PDH maintenance expectations, PL oscillates [39] - **Main Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations boost the price. The enterprise shipment pressure is high, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The powder profit is under pressure, and the low start - up rate has a negative impact [39] - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [39] PVC - **View**: The market sentiment is positive, and the short - term futures price is strong [40] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, and micro - level supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the oversupply expectation cannot be reversed. The production may stabilize, downstream demand is weak seasonally, and the cost is expected to be weak [40] - **Outlook**: Although the supply has marginal improvement, the rebound space may be limited. The market may return to weakness if marginal enterprises resume production [40] Caustic Soda - **View**: Supported by low valuation, caustic soda rebounds at a low level [42] - **Main Logic**: Macro - level sentiment boosts, but short - term inventory reduction may not change the oversupply situation. The demand from alumina and non - aluminum industries has different trends, and the cost is relatively stable [42] - **Outlook**: The short - term market sentiment is positive, and the price rebounds. However, the medium - term market may be under pressure if upstream production reduction is limited [42] Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Inter - Period Spreads - The report provides inter - period spread data for multiple varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different time - period spreads [44] Basis and Warehouse Receipts - Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil are presented, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [45] Inter - Variety Spreads - Inter - variety spread data, including spreads between PP and methanol, PTA and EG, etc., are given, indicating the relative price relationships between different varieties [46] Group 5: Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities on December 24, 2025, are reported, showing the performance of different indices and their historical and recent fluctuations [287][288]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different financial derivatives: - Stock index futures: The outlook is "volatile", and the recommended operation is "Dividend ETF + IC long positions". [6] - Stock index options: The outlook is "volatile", and the recommended operation is a covered strategy. [6] - Treasury bond futures: The outlook is "volatile". Recommended strategies include trend strategy (volatile), hedging strategy (focus on short - selling hedging at low basis levels), basis strategy (appropriately focus on basis widening), and curve strategy (the curve may remain steep). [6][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Stock index futures experienced high - volatility fluctuations in the afternoon, and their sustainability is restricted by trading volume. Stock index option implied volatility rebounded due to positive sentiment. The long and short - end trends of the main treasury bond futures contracts diverged. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Views - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and closed up with trading volume basically unchanged. The intraday change occurred in the afternoon, with small - cap stock volatility surging. The catalyst might be SMIC's 10% price increase for some production capacities. Large - cap stocks are more likely to receive incremental funds in the medium - term. Near the end of the year, overall upward movement is restricted by trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a defensive allocation with high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main lines, and large - cap stocks are preferred over small - cap stocks. [1][6] - **Stock Index Options**: On Wednesday, the equity market rose with shrinking volume. Option implied volatility rose rapidly in the afternoon and most varieties' implied volatility fell at the end of the session. The market layout may favor large - cap stocks. The total option trading volume increased by 26.57%. The market hedging structure may shift from selling calls to buying puts. A covered strategy can be continued to increase returns. [2][6] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The long and short - end main futures contracts showed a trend of opening low and rising oscillating. Morning fund tightening led to an opening low, while improved sentiment in the market might be related to expectations of increased central bank bond purchases and a higher probability of a reserve - requirement cut. The central bank will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. In the short - term, the fund situation is relatively loose, which is beneficial for the short end, while the long end may fluctuate. [3][6][7] Economic Calendar - On December 22, 2025, China's 1 - year and 5 - year loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively. - On December 23, the initial quarterly - adjusted annualized GDP growth rate in the third quarter of the United States was 4.3%, higher than the forecast of 3.2%. - On December 24, the seasonally - adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States on December 20 were 2.14 million, lower than the previous value and forecast of 2.24 million. [8] Important Information and News Tracking - **Real Estate Restrictions**: Beijing optimized real - estate policies, including relaxing non - Beijing household purchase conditions and supporting multi - child family housing needs. The minimum down - payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans was reduced from 30% to 25%. [9] - **MLF**: On December 25, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation. [9] - **Semiconductor**: SMIC and VIS announced a 10% price increase for the 8 - inch BCD process platform, possibly due to high demand for power chips in AI servers. [10] - **Foreign Investment**: The 2025 version of the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment" will be implemented on February 1, 2026, aiming to attract more foreign investment in specific fields and regions. [10] Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data details are not provided in the content for a comprehensive summary. [11][15][27]