Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains largely unchanged, and the macro - environment is still favorable for risk assets. Investors are advised to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are appropriate pullbacks [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The core drivers of major assets this week are the "anticipatory front - running" after the US government's restart and the strengthened expectation of looser liquidity. With the absence of key inflation and employment data, the market has shifted from data - dependence to assumption - dependence. Weak high - frequency private indicators have led to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts, limiting the US dollar's rebound and lowering US Treasury yields. The financial attributes of precious metals have been continuously strengthened. However, the impact of the expected difference after front - running should be警惕 [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: In October, the economic data showed a weak and stable trend overall, and the boost of incremental policies to the fundamentals has not been reflected. Affected by factors such as the diminishing marginal benefit of the trade - in policy, weak funds in place, a phased decline in exports, and anti - involution expectations, the overall data in October continued to slow down slightly but still showed resilience. The 500 billion yuan of policy - based financial instruments and the 500 billion yuan of local government's unused quota withdrawals implemented in October are expected to take effect as early as the end of the fourth quarter. In addition, M1 increased by 6.2% year - on - year in October, and the financial data generally met expectations [7]. - **Asset Views**: The overall configuration idea in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. The macro - environment is favorable for risk assets. It is recommended to make balanced allocations in major asset classes in the fourth quarter, hold long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, lithium carbonate, aluminum, tin), and precious metals, and consider increasing allocations if there are pullbacks in the fourth quarter [7]. 3.2 Market Performance of Various Asset Classes - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4565.2, up 0.22% daily, - 0.77% weekly, - 1.43% monthly, - 1.14% quarterly, and up 16.43% this year; the SSE 50 futures closed at 3011, up 0.45% daily, - 0.64% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, 0.74% quarterly, and up 12.43% this year; the CSI 500 futures closed at 7054.8, down 0.35% daily, - 2.59% monthly, - 3.23% quarterly, and up 23.92% this year; the CSI 1000 futures closed at 7298.2, down 0.73% daily, - 1.00% weekly, - 0.95% monthly, - 1.46% quarterly, and up 24.74% this year [3]. - **Treasury Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury futures closed at 102,462, down 0.03% daily, 0.01% weekly, - 0.08% monthly, 0.09% quarterly, and down 0.50% this year; the 5 - year Treasury futures closed at 105.88, down 0.04% daily, 0.00% weekly, - 0.17% monthly, 0.24% quarterly, and down 0.62% this year; the 10 - year Treasury futures closed at 108.425, down 0.07% daily, - 0.23% monthly, 0.54% quarterly, and down 0.46% this year; the 30 - year Treasury futures closed at 116.09, down 0.38% daily, - 0.06% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, 1.92% quarterly, and down 2.314% this year [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 99.5932, unchanged daily, up 0.31% weekly, - 0.14% monthly, - 8.19% this year; the euro - US dollar exchange rate was 1.1581; the US dollar - yen exchange rate was 155.525, up 0.64% weekly, 0.98% monthly, 5.14% quarterly, - 1.07% this year; the central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0872, up 16 pips daily, 47 pips weekly, - 8 pips monthly, - 183 pips quarterly, - 1012 pips this year [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.55, unchanged daily, up 8 bp weekly, 9 bp monthly, 10 bp quarterly, - 20 bp this year; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 1.82, up 0.6 bp daily, 0.4 bp weekly, 2.3 bp monthly, - 4.3 bp quarterly, 0.1 bp this year; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 4.12, down 1 bp daily, - 2 bp weekly, 0.1 bp monthly, - 4 bp quarterly, - 43 bp this year; the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was 0.54, up 1 bp daily, 0 bp weekly, - 0.02 bp monthly, - 2 bp quarterly, 21 bp this year [3]. - **Overseas Commodities**: For example, COMEX gold was at 4067.4, up 0.55% daily, - 0.42% weekly, 1.35% monthly, 4.62% quarterly, and up 54.11% this year; NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 60.57, up 1.42% daily, 1.03% weekly, - 0.51% monthly, - 2.98% quarterly, - 11.72% this year [3]. - **Domestic Commodities**: For example, domestic gold was at 937, up 2.01% daily, - 1.70% weekly, 1.64% monthly, 7.16% quarterly, and up 51.72% this year; the Shanghai - Europe container shipping line was at 1640.1, down 2.26% daily, 2.19% weekly, 5.57% monthly, - 0.16% quarterly, - 27.33% this year [2][4]. 3.3 Sector - by - Sector Views - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner; stock index options are expected to be volatile; Treasury futures are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [8]. - **Shipping**: The Shanghai - Europe container shipping line is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight rate decline [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, coal, and building materials are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with some like aluminum and lithium carbonate expected to rise in a volatile manner, and nickel expected to fall in a volatile manner [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, while oils and fats are expected to rise in a volatile manner, and some agricultural products like live pigs and sugar are expected to fall in a volatile manner [11]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with some like natural rubber and cotton expected to be volatile, and some like live pigs and sugar expected to fall in a volatile manner [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Due to the upcoming release of important earnings reports of US stocks and key data such as the Fed's October meeting minutes and non - farm payroll data, and the continuous cooling of the labor market, the market may have some anticipatory trading. Attention should be paid to the release of this week's data [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. The core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, such as excessive debt issuance and de - globalization, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Information - The Fed will release its October meeting minutes on Thursday at 3:00 am. There is increasing uncertainty among investors about the direction of US interest rates. Fed officials have significant differences on whether it is appropriate to further ease policy before the end of the year. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in December is only 51% [2]. - The US trade deficit in August was $59.6 billion, better than the expected deficit of $61 billion. Exports were $280.8 billion, and imports were $340.4 billion [2]. - The eurozone's October CPI final value increased by 2.1% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The core CPI final value increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [2]. b. Price Logic - In the short - term, precious metals rebounded on Wednesday, with silver showing greater elasticity. Market caution may prevail before the release of important US stock earnings reports. Based on the cooling labor market, anticipatory trading may occur, and attention should be paid to data releases this week [1][3]. - In the long - term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Gold is a hedge against US dollar credit risks, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. The global economic shift in 2026 is favorable for silver's elasticity. The expected range for London gold this week is [3800, 4200] dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [46, 53] dollars per ounce [3]. c. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2249.04, up 0.63%; the commodity 20 index was 2553.16, up 0.73%; the industrial products index was 2216.05, up 0.32%; the PPI commodity index was 1337.81, up 0.22% [42]. - **Sector Index**: The precious metals index on November 19, 2025, had a daily increase of 2.58%, a 5 - day decline of 2.84%, a 1 - month increase of 0.78%, and a year - to - date increase of 51.31% [43].

从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025/11/19 能源转型与碳中和组 伊 张默涵 《方案》的调整为碳价提供有效支撑,建议关注逢低买入的机会。 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of industrial silicon remains high, and the demand from polysilicon and organic silicon has significantly contracted. The anti - involution policy has little impact on industrial silicon, and its price may be under pressure. For polysilicon, the anti - involution policy has a clear impact, and its price has strong bottom support [4][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 10, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rebounded significantly. The industrial silicon main contract price exceeded 9,500 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon main contract price approached 55,000 yuan/ton. The smooth convening of the organic silicon industry production - reduction meeting and concerns about supply - side disturbances due to winter heating season contributed to the price rebound [4] Fundamental Situation Industrial Silicon - Supply: The supply of industrial silicon has a marginal contraction as the southwest dry season approaches, but the national monthly output is still expected to be above 350,000 tons, and supply pressure remains. - Demand: In November, the demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decline, and the demand from aluminum alloy has limited growth. - Inventory: The social inventory of industrial silicon is at a high level, and the warehouse receipts are gradually being cleared in November [5] Polysilicon - Supply: The production of polysilicon will contract in November and December, with an estimated output of less than 120,000 tons in November and 110,000 tons in December. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon may weaken from November due to the decline in domestic photovoltaic installation and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports in the fourth quarter [6] Summary and Strategy - Industrial silicon: It is recommended that investors use short - selling hedging. In terms of arbitrage, investors can gradually engage in the inter - period positive spread of industrial silicon. - Polysilicon: Investors can focus on selling put options of polysilicon [7]

伊 张默涵 从业资格号:F03097187 投资咨询号: Z0020317 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 三大行业基础结转量增加,碳价大幅上涨! 2025年11月17日,生态环境部发布《2024、2025年度全国碳排放权交易市场钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业配额总量和 分配方案》（下称《方案》）:对比生态环境部之前发布的征求意见稿,《方案》有两处调整:(1)碳排放强度与碳 排放强度偏离度的系数由0.1调整为0.15,碳排放强度偏离度上下限由±30%调整为±20%; (2)钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行 业重点排放单位基础结转量由1万吨调整为10万吨;对于纳入两个及两个以上行业的重点排放单位,其基础结转量由1万 吨调整为各行业重点排放单位基础结转量的总和(≥11万吨)。 2025/11/19 2025年11月19日,碳排放配额早盘直线拉升涨停,收盘略有回调,收盘价66.86元/吨,涨幅超8%。 能源转型与碳中和组 受《方案》的影响,碳价早盘直线拉升,并于10:53涨停,收盘时价格略有回调;全天成交量为114.64万吨,较昨日成交 量上涨17.6%。短期需关注基础结转量的增加带来的潜在需求是否能转化为有效的市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate remain tight, and the market is optimistic about the demand for lithium carbonate next year, driving the continuous rise in lithium carbonate prices. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons On November 19th, the lithium carbonate futures price strengthened again, with the main contract rising over 4% and the disk price approaching 100,000 yuan per ton. The core reason for this price rebound is the continuous improvement in the demand side. The demand for power batteries and energy - storage batteries remains high, driving the accelerated depletion of lithium carbonate inventory. The market has an optimistic demand expectation for next year. The prices of industrial chain materials are rising synchronously, enhancing the upward momentum of lithium carbonate. On November 18th, a seminar on "Cost Research in the Lithium Iron Phosphate Material Industry" was held, emphasizing the need to guide the industry's orderly development [3]. Fundamental Situation Supply of lithium resources is gradually recovering, but demand is stronger, and the supply - demand relationship remains in a tight balance. SMM data shows that the lithium carbonate production in October rose to 92,300 tons, and is expected to remain high from November to December. The demand side is strong. From November to December, there is still support. Policies such as "trade - in" and purchase tax relief promote the production and sales of new - energy vehicles. The energy - storage economy is improving, and the market's optimistic expectation for next - year's energy - storage demand will boost lithium carbonate in the long - term. The production of cathodes and electrolytes remains high, with lithium hexafluorophosphate rising over 190% since mid - July. The current inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously depleting, and it is expected to continue from November to December. The overall supply - demand pattern from November to December is still tight [4]. Summary and Strategy Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are tight, and the market's optimistic demand expectation for next year drives the price up. In the context of good demand expectations, short - term trading is recommended. If the price回调 due to factors such as mine复产, it is more prudent to buy on dips [5].

1信期货有限公司 2025年11月18日 铝产业链日度数据跟踪 一、氧化铝 价格72美元/干吨,环比0美元/干吨; (2) 11月18日现货价格指数为2844元/吨,环比-1元/吨; (3) 11月18日期货库存255462吨,环比+1808吨; (4) 11月18日进口盈亏为-1元/吨,环比-6元/吨; 二、电解铝 lite 3 - 2024 -- 2023 2025 350000 300000 200000 100000 -50000 01/02 02/02 03/10 04/16 05/26 07/01 08/05 09/09 10/17 11/16 12/16 三、铝合金 (2) 11月18日生铝精废价差为1701元/吨,环比-53元/吨;型材铝精废 价差2454元/吨,环比-52元/吨; 图表 1: 国产铝土矿价格 元/吨 600 550 500 450 01/02 01/27 02/21 03/17 04/11 05/07 06/01 06/26 07/21 08/15 09/09 10/11 11/05 11/30 12/25 图表 2:几内亚铝土矿价格 美元/吨 2025 == 2024 · ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The energy and chemical industry will continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The expectation of oversupply is strengthening, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The price will fluctuate in the short - term due to factors such as supply pressure, positive signals from cracking prices, and unconfirmed geopolitical concerns [4][8]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The current over - supply situation and continuous inventory accumulation are difficult to change, and the price is under pressure [4][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price is in a weak and fluctuating state. The price is affected by factors such as geopolitical situation, demand, and cracking spread, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is supported by the strengthening of refined oil. It is expected to fluctuate with crude oil, although it faces some negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand and the substitution of green energy [4][11]. - **Methanol**: High inventory suppresses the price, and overseas disturbances are not significant. Methanol is in a low - level fluctuating state, and it is expected to have a short - term narrow - range fluctuation [4][25]. - **Urea**: The downstream follows up at low prices, and the futures price rises slightly. In the short term, it is expected to rise slightly and generally fluctuate and consolidate [4][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The circulation of goods in the market increases, and the basis remains weak. The price is expected to maintain a low - level range fluctuation, and the EG01 - 05 spread is still recommended to be shorted at high levels [4][20]. - **PX**: The market sentiment has cooled slightly, and the cost support is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, waiting for further feedback from the market [4][12]. - **PTA**: The emotional fermentation has ended, and the fundamental variables are limited. The price is expected to fluctuate with the cost, and the TA01 - 05 reverse spread position can be temporarily left for observation [4][13]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price difference between high and low prices in the market is gradually widening, and the factory's sales are difficult. There is still room for profit compression, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [4][21]. - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it follows the cost passively. The absolute value will fluctuate with the raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support below [4][23]. - **Propylene**: The spot price has strengthened in the short term, and the PL fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][28]. - **PP**: The fundamental pressure has been priced in, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][27]. - **Plastic**: The short - term maintenance support is limited, and the plastic fluctuates. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][26]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the narrative of blending for oil, styrene fluctuates after a rebound. The price is affected by factors such as the blending for oil and the inventory of pure benzene, and the market is in a state of game between expectation and reality [4][17]. - **PVC**: The cancellation of anti - dumping duties boosts the market sentiment again. Although the fundamentals are under pressure, the short - term market sentiment is improved [4][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, caustic soda fluctuates. The supply - demand expectation is poor, but the falling price of liquid chlorine pushes up the cost, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [4][32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different time periods of each variety [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety are provided, which can help analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices and the supply situation in the market [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spread data between different varieties are given, which can reflect the relative price relationship between different varieties and provide reference for arbitrage trading [36]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific data analysis is not carried out in the text, it is expected to provide more in - depth monitoring and analysis of the basis and spread of various chemical products [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, PPI commodity index, and sector index of the commodity are provided. The energy index shows a decline of 0.61% on November 18, 2025, a decline of 2.25% in the past 5 days, an increase of 3.31% in the past month, and a decline of 6.87% since the beginning of the year [275][276][277].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-19 美国就业市场疲软，贵⾦属跌幅收窄 周⼆贵⾦属价格回落后⼩幅反弹，调整幅度收窄。⽇内披露的美国周度⾸ 申、续请失业⾦⼈数维持⾼位，美国政府本次的超⻓停摆进⼀步推升劳动 ⼒市场下⾏⻛险，美股延续弱势，美债⼩幅⾛强，关注本周美国GDP及⾮ 农数据披露，⾦银短期或呈现震荡整理。 重点资讯： 1）美国劳工部显示，截至10月18日当周初请失业金人数为23.2万 人；续请失业金人数为195.7万人，较此前一周的续请失业金人数 194.7万人有所增长。同时，截至9月20日当周初请失业金人数从21.8 万人上修至21.9万人，四周均值从23.75万人上修至23.775万人。截 至9月13日当周的续请失业金人数从192.6万人下修至191.6万人。美 国政府官网暂未公布截至9月27日、10月4日、10月11日、10月25日、 11月1日、11月8日当周的初请失业金数据，若政府未关门，6组数据 本应已公布。 2）据克利夫兰联储研究人员统计，美国企业10月份发出的即将大规 模裁员通知激增，创历史最高纪录之一。克利夫兰联储的初步数据显 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [9] Report's Core View - The performance of furnace materials is differentiated, and the upward momentum of finished products is weak. Iron ore prices are strong due to the expected release of restocking demand, while coking coal and coke prices are weak. The fundamentals of finished products in the off - season have limited highlights, and the futures prices have limited upward momentum. If there are still positive releases from the macro and policy fronts later, the phased upward opportunities can still be concerned [3][4][8] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Overall Industry Situation - The supply and demand of the industry are marginally weakening, in line with off - season characteristics. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. If there are positive macro and policy factors, there may be phased upward opportunities [5][8] 2. Different Product Analysis 2.1 Iron Element Products - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the arrival volume has declined. The port inventory has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal has recovered, but there is a seasonal weakening expectation. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly. For example, the port transaction volume is 60.6(-15.2) million tons, the swap main contract is 104.4(+0.01) US dollars/ton, and the PB powder is 795(+3) yuan/ton [13][14] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand are both weak. The arrival volume is low, and the total daily consumption has slightly decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the price will oscillate with the finished products. The average price of East China crushed scrap is 2147(+1) yuan/ton, and the screw - scrap price difference in East China is 996(+8) yuan/ton [15] 2.2 Carbon Element Products - **Coke**: The supply is stable, the demand is supported, and the inventory is low. The cost support has weakened, and the price is temporarily in a dilemma. The futures price is expected to oscillate with coking coal. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1490 yuan/ton (-30) [16] - **Coking Coal**: The supply is slowly recovering, the import is at a high level, and the demand has slowed down. The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is expected to oscillate. The medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1430 yuan/ton (0), and the Mongolian No. 5 clean coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1378 yuan/ton (0) [17] 2.3 Alloy Products - **Manganese Silicon**: The cost support is strengthened, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward pressure is large. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Inner Mongolia 6517 is 5600 yuan/ton (0) [21] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost valuation is firm, but the supply - demand is loose, and the upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost. The ex - factory price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron is 5150 yuan/ton (0) [22] 2.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply is disturbed, and the inventory is high. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1090 yuan/ton (-10), and the national average price is 1114 yuan/ton (-7) [18] - **Soda Ash**: The cost has increased, but the supply - demand is in excess. The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and the long - term price center will decline. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1170 yuan/ton (-) [20] 3. Steel Products - The third - round and fifth - batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections may affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are weak, the steel mill profits are poor, the production has decreased, the demand has declined, and the inventory is still high year - on - year. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate widely. For example, the price of Hangzhou rebar is 3180 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3260 (-30) yuan/ton [12] 4. Commodity Index - On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.86% to 2234.87, the commodities 20 index decreased by 0.83% to 2534.70, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.88% to 2208.90. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.98% on that day, increased by 0.40% in the past 5 days, increased by 1.22% in the past month, and decreased by 5.49% since the beginning of the year [103][105]