1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: Oscillation [5] - Protein meal: Oscillation [6] - Corn/starch: Oscillation [6] - Pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Natural rubber: Oscillation [8] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillation [10] - Cotton: Oscillation [11] - Sugar: Oscillation [12] - Pulp: Oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - Logs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market due to the good growth of US soybeans. The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments in protein meal. Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Synthetic rubber prices continue to rise following the overall commodity trend. Pulp investment should follow the macro trend and go long. Low inventory supports cotton prices, while increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: US soybeans are growing well, and rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market yesterday. - **Industry Information**: As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. - **Logic**: US soybeans may decline due to expected rainfall, and domestic oils and fats oscillated lower yesterday. The macro environment shows a weakening US dollar and stable crude oil prices. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is still at a relatively high level, and the market expects a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is expected to increase, and domestic soybean oil inventories are rising. Palm oil production is in the increasing season, with expected inventory accumulation. Rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly decreasing. - **Outlook**: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, the pressure of correction has increased, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support below [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, 2025, the international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, with a risk of low precipitation in the next 15 days. The US soybean export outlook is worrying, but Brazilian soybean premiums are rising. Domestically, the spot price follows the futures, but the basis weakens slightly. Soybean arrivals increase, and the refinery operating rate rises, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. In the long term, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - **Outlook**: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the basis is expected to be weak. Oil refineries can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices. Hold long positions at 2900 [6]. 3.1.3 Corn - **View**: Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main contract closing price increased by 0.09%. - **Logic**: As the trade sector actively sells grain, the supply in ports and deep - processing industries decreases. It is expected that the supply of old crops will tighten further from July to August, and prices may rebound in some areas. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market has digested the bullish factors. Recently, due to weather and previous overselling, spot prices have rebounded. New - season corn production is normal, and there is an expectation of increased supply and decreased prices in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking, and prices may rebound. After the new - crop listing, there is a downward driving force [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 0.35%, and the futures closing price increased by 0.10%. - **Logic**: In the short term, the supply of groups of pigs is accelerating, and farmers still have the sentiment to fatten pigs. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity is still high, but the government is guiding the industry to adjust. The demand is not strong, and there is still sentiment for secondary fattening among farmers. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply - side adjustment policy has a positive impact on the market, but the supply pressure in the third quarter remains. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products showed different changes on July 22. - **Logic**: The commodity market is strong, and the bullish sentiment continues. Natural rubber follows the upward trend, and its fundamentals are currently stable. On the supply side, Asian production areas are affected by the rainy season, and the supply is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of some tire enterprises has recovered, and the demand is stable. In the third quarter, there may be de - stocking transactions, and rubber prices may rise further if the macro sentiment remains positive. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall following the overall commodity sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market continues to rise following the overall commodity trend. - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes. - **Logic**: The market is mainly driven by the macro environment. In terms of fundamentals, there are no major changes. The price of butadiene has been oscillating strongly, and downstream demand is good, with no obvious supply pressure. The short - term price center may rise further. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in production facilities [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Low inventory supports cotton prices. - **Industry Information**: As of July 22, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed changes. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the supply of cotton is expected to be loose. It is currently the off - season for downstream demand, and enterprises' operating rates are declining, with a slight increase in finished - product inventory. However, the de - stocking speed of cotton is fast, and the supply is tight before the new - crop listing. In the short term, low inventory supports prices, but the risk of a pull - back is increasing. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure after the new - crop listing. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, but the upward resistance is increasing [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: Increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. - **Industry Information**: On July 22, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, with production increases expected in major producing countries. Domestic sales are fast, and industrial inventories are decreasing. However, imports have been increasing since May, and Brazil is entering the peak production and export period. - **Outlook**: In the long term, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, there is a lack of bullish factors, and the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The investment should follow the macro trend and go long. - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products showed different changes. - **Logic**: The pulp futures have been rising recently, mainly driven by the macro environment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward driving force comes from the macro aspect. On the supply side, the US dollar price is falling, and overseas pulp mill inventories are high. On the demand side, downstream paper production and sales are increasing, but the price performance reflects poor market expectations. In the short term, the macro environment drives the price up, and the valuation support weakens after the rebound. In the medium term, there is pressure from high imports, and the supply is expected to be abundant. - **Outlook**: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate strongly due to a favorable macro environment and relatively low valuation [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment. - **Logic**: The log market has filled the previous gap and is oscillating around 840. Technically, it maintains an upward trend. Fundamentally, port inventory has decreased, but the short - term circulation pressure of deliverable goods has increased, and the ability of processing plants to receive goods has decreased. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium term. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand this year is stable. The new foreign quotation has increased, which reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at low prices. - **Outlook**: The market is oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of high - price CFR and the change in the volume of deliverable goods. Speculators are advised to wait and see, and industrial players can participate in hedging according to their costs [15][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - This section mainly lists various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards - **Bullish**: Expected increase greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation with a bullish bias**: Expected increase between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Oscillation**: Expected increase or decrease within plus or minus 1 standard deviation. - **Oscillation with a bearish bias**: Expected decrease between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - **Bearish**: Expected decrease greater than 2 standard deviations. - **Time Period**: Next 2 - 12 weeks. - **Standard Deviation**: 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [175]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping market shows mixed trends in different routes and indicators. For example, some routes' capacity has decreased while others have increased, and there are also fluctuations in container volumes and port throughput [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs High - frequency Capacity - In the 31st week (planned capacity as of August 3rd), the capacity of the China - US West route decreased by 5.2% week - on - week, with a capacity of 326,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. The capacity of the China - US East route increased by 12.9% week - on - week, with a capacity of 236,000 TEU and a year - on - year increase of 41.8%. The capacity of the China - Southeast Asia route decreased by 5.4% week - on - week and increased by 36.9% year - on - year. The capacity of the China - Europe route decreased by 13.9% week - on - week and 9.4% year - on - year, and the capacity of the Mediterranean route decreased by 8.5% week - on - week at a high level but increased by 29.3% year - on - year [2]. Container Volume Data of Cargo - Laden Containers Sent to the US - As of July 21st, the weekly shipped cargo - laden container volume from China to the US was 495,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 12.5%, and the number of ships was 62, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8%. The recent shipping capacity scale has been fluctuating downward [2]. US Port Arrival Volume Data - In the week of July 17th, the weekly arrival volume of imported goods in the US was 522,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 17.8%. The weekly arrival volume of imported goods from China was 190,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 18%, and the weekly arrival volume from Vietnam was 62,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 16.6% [3]. Domestic Port Throughput - In the week of July 20th, the container throughput of Chinese ports increased by 2.6% week - on - week, reaching 6.642 million TEU/week [3]. Vizion Booking Data - In the week from July 7th to 13th, the overall booking volume of the US and the booking volume of imported goods from China continued to decline week - on - week. The overall booking volume of the US was 345,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 7.6% with the decline rate widening by 7 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.6%. The booking volume from China was 124,000 TEU, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year sharp decrease of 30.1% [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 21, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; most commodity futures gained, with metals and energy & chemicals sectors leading the gains [2][9][11]. - The top three gainers were aluminium oxide, coking coal, and glass, while the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), cotton, and Chinese jujube [9][10][11]. - The President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission will visit China and hold the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting; the July LPR quotation shows both 5 - year and 1 - year rates remain unchanged [2][32]. - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, and the Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year [33]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 21, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, and most commodity futures gained. The top gainers were aluminium oxide (8.4% increase, 5.3% month - on - month increase in positions), coking coal (7.9% increase, 5.1% month - on - month decrease in positions), and glass (7.1% increase, 18.3% month - on - month decrease in positions). The top decliners were SCFIS(Europe) (2.4% decrease, 0.4% month - on - month decrease in positions), cotton (0.8% decrease, 3.7% month - on - month decrease in positions), and Chinese jujube (0.7% decrease, 2.9% month - on - month increase in positions) [9][10][11]. 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Aluminum Oxide - On July 21, aluminum oxide increased by 8.4% to 3386 yuan/ton. Short - term squeeze risk and anti - involution sentiment drove up the futures. Operating capacity is gradually recovering, and inventories are accumulating. The impact of the new non - ferrous industry growth - stabilizing plan on the supply of the surplus aluminium oxide sector remains to be seen. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On July 21, coking coal increased by 7.9% to 1006 yuan/ton. Domestic coal mine recovery is slow, and Mongolian coal customs clearance is gradually picking up. With strong rigid demand and market sentiment, coking coal prices are prone to rise in the short term, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [20][21][22]. 1.2.3 Glass - On July 21, glass increased by 7.1% to 1173 yuan/ton. Demand is marginally weakening, supply pressure is expected to rise, and fundamentals are weak. With low mid - stream inventories, there is a risk of speculative pull on prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [25][26][27]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The President of the European Council Carlos Moedas and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen will visit China on July 24. President Xi Jinping will meet with them, and Premier Li Qiang will co - chair the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting. The July LPR quotation shows that the over - 5 - year LPR is 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR is 3%, both unchanged from last month [32]. 2.2 Industry News - As of mid - July this year, there have been 52 IPOs in Hong Kong, a year - on - year increase of 30%, with a total funds raised of HK$124 billion, a year - on - year rise of 590%, ranking first globally temporarily. The Hang Seng Index has risen by 25.3% cumulatively since the beginning of this year. The SAR government will continue to improve the listing system, promote stock market liquidity, and attract more high - quality enterprises to list in Hong Kong [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, but the nomination of the new Fed Chair is affecting interest - rate cut expectations. The US tariff policies may be finalized in early August. Domestically, the Q2 economic data shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy games at the end of the month. Domestic assets present structural opportunities, and long - term weak dollar trend continues. Strategic allocation to resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. - For various asset classes, most are in a state of volatility, with some showing upward or downward trends based on different market logics such as policy expectations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Summary - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The new Fed Chair nomination is expected between October - December 2025, and US tariff policies may be finalized on August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an improvement in infrastructure investment. There are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies, and current stable - growth policies focus on using existing resources, with a higher probability of incremental policies in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas, factors like tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak dollar trend is expected, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold and copper is advisable [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term implementation of fiscal policies [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectation structure flattens, economic growth expectations improve, and stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations of "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds, resulting in a volatile market [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, with selling options dominating, and deteriorating option liquidity leads to a volatile market [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and factors like unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing may affect the market, which is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and factors such as Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies should be monitored, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, there is a game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, and factors like tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies should be watched, with a volatile market expected [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Most products in this sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are expected to have a volatile and relatively strong performance due to factors such as cost support, production, and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a volatile state, with some like zinc and nickel expected to have a downward - trending or weak - trending volatility due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and policy risks [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Due to OPEC+'s unexpected production increase, the energy and chemical sector is expected to be weakly volatile. Different products have different trends based on their supply - demand, cost, and other factors, such as crude oil expected to decline, and some products like ethylene glycol expected to rise [8]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Agricultural products show different trends. For example, palm oil leads the rise in oils, while corn and starch futures are expected to decline weakly, and most products are in a volatile state affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and trade policies [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - **Logic**: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - **Logic**: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - **Outlook**: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - **Logic**: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - **Logic**: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - **Logic**: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market is expected to experience volatile trends, with attention on policy variables and cost - side fluctuations. There is a divergence between crude oil and chemicals, as well as between futures and spot markets, making it difficult for the energy and chemical sector to have a clear - cut trend. [1][4] - Crude oil supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure are in a state of balance, leading to an oscillating oil price. [8] - Domestic chemical products have shown strong performance, especially coal and coal - chemical products with high self - sufficiency rates. However, the increase in chemical futures prices has not been followed by spot prices, and the basis of chemical products has weakened. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical disturbances should be noted. The high refinery operations in domestic and foreign markets and the supply pressure are in a state of balance, resulting in an oscillating oil price. [8] - **LPG**: The support from the cost side is weakening, and the fundamental situation of ample supply remains unchanged. The PG futures may experience weak oscillations. [3] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely over - valued stage. [3] - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is significant downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. [3] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the oscillating and weakening trend of crude oil. [3] - **Methanol**: The operating load in the inland region remains low, and methanol prices will oscillate. [3] - **Urea**: Supply is strong while demand is weak. Although sentiment is temporarily boosted and exports support the market, urea prices will oscillate in the short term. [3] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventories have decreased, and the expectation of inventory accumulation has been postponed. [3] - **PX**: The downward space is limited, and it will seek a direction during oscillations. [3] - **PTA**: The driving force is limited, and it is affected by cost and macro - sentiment disturbances. [3] - **Short - fiber**: There are limited industrial contradictions. [3] - **Bottle Chip**: The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. [3] - **PP**: The expectation of stable growth boosts the market, and PP prices will oscillate. [3] - **Plastic**: The expectation of stable growth in the petrochemical industry provides a slight boost, and plastic prices will oscillate. [3] - **Pure Benzene**: The improvement of the balance sheet and positive commodity sentiment are expected to lead to a weak rebound. [3] - **Styrene**: The stable - growth plan boosts the market, and styrene prices will rise. [3] - **PVC**: Market sentiment has warmed up again, and a cautious and optimistic attitude is recommended. [3] - **Caustic Soda**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and caustic soda prices will experience a weak rebound. [3] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.78 with a change of - 0.1, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread being 60 with a change of 8. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities. For example, the basis of asphalt is 198 with a change of 33, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300. [37] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads also show different values and changes, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 354 with a change of - 62. [39] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The content mainly lists various chemical products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in a summarized way in the provided text. [40][52][63]

"Anti-involution" drives glass and soda ash surging with substantial short covering "反内卷"驱动玻璃纯碱空单减仓大幅上涨 Investment consulting business qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 669 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03122523 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0019832 典 Yu Dian 余 2025/07/22 从业资格号 Qualification No: F03099559 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0020955 陶存辉 Tao Cunhui 从业资格号 Qualification No:F03100815 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0021807 薛 原 Xue Yuan 从业资格号 Qualification No: F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.: Z0013632 桂晨曦 Gui ChenXi Event 事件点评 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The strength of precious metals is mainly due to renewed concerns about the Fed's independence and clear interest rate cut signals from Fed officials. Gold has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market risk - on sentiment suppresses its upward momentum. Silver is expected to continue its strength based on the bullish outlook for gold [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The monthly rate of the US Conference Board Leading Index in June was - 0.3%, with an expected - 0.2% and a previous value revised from - 0.10% to 0% [2]. - Fed Chair Powell faced criminal charges from Trump's allies in the House. Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna accused Powell of perjury, stating he made false statements during a Senate testimony in June 2025 regarding the Fed building renovation and downplayed the cost increase from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion [2][3]. - Fed Governor Waller said waiting six more weeks to cut interest rates might be okay, but there's no reason to delay. He also mentioned that he would accept if the president nominated him as Fed Chair [2][3]. - Goolsbee said the latest CPI data showed that tariffs were pushing up commodity inflation, and he was "slightly worried." He expected a significant interest rate drop in the next year [2][6]. 3.2 Price Logic - On the evening of July 21, the gold price quickly rose to $3,400 per ounce, and silver rose 2%, approaching the $39 per ounce mark. The strength of precious metals is due to concerns about the Fed's independence and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Regarding the Fed's independence, the criminal charges against Powell by Congresswoman Luna have raised concerns. Perjury can carry a maximum sentence of 5 years in prison [3]. - In terms of interest rate cut expectations, Waller's statement and Goolsbee's prediction of a significant rate drop in the next year have increased the market's interest rate cut expectations [3][6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Currently, it is the third international public - good crisis since the Pax Britannica. In 2025, tariff, geopolitical, and monetary - system risks are similar to those in the last century. Gold, as a substitute for the existing monetary system, has long - term bullish factors, but short - term market sentiment restricts its upward movement. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity. Based on the bullish view of gold, silver is expected to remain strong [6]. - Pay attention to US real - estate data, Fed interest - rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price range to watch is [3250, 3450], and for COMEX silver, it is [36, 45] [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-07-22 ⻛险偏好上移 股指期货：温和上攻 股指期权：红利及小盘情绪上方空间更高 国债期货：风险偏好提升压制债市表现 股指期货方面，周一市场温和上攻，沪指稳步站上3550点关口，反内 卷交易延续成为市场主线，其中建材、建筑、钢铁、电新等领涨，反内卷 方向有扩散化的迹象。另外需要注意的是，银行板块近日连续下跌，这一 现象有几种解释路径，其一，沪指破位重要指数关口之后，按照历史经验 外推会呈现成长补涨的格局，其二，景气度交易再起，近年常被提及的哑 铃结构受到挑战，资金集中涌入景气度反转或是景气度快速提升的领域， 使得市值因子的重要度边际下降。当下我们暂时倾向转向后者的可能性， 在政策主线明确之后，资金针对基本面环境纠偏，公募等中长期资金定价 权提升。展望后市，目前仍建议布局IM多单，除了Beta因素之外，不排除 贴水收敛的可能性。 股指期权方面，期权市场成交额53.98亿元，相较前一交易日下降14. 72%，但仍维持近段时间整体的高流动性。情绪指标方面，持仓量PCR多数 品种延续上行，部分品种如沪市300ETF、创业板E ...

【中信期货航运】关税政策下运量及运力数据 数据报告20250722 2025/7/22 | 研 | 工业与周期组 | | --- | --- | | 究 | 安婕锐 武嘉璐 | | | 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 | | 员 | 投资咨询号： Z0021085 投资咨询号：Z0022651 | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】669号 高频运力方面,第31周(至8月3日计划运力)美西航线运力环比继续回落5.2%。美西航线运力为32.6万TEU,同比上涨 5.7%;美东航线运力为23.6万TEU;环比上涨12.9%,同比上涨41.8%;中国一东南亚航线运力环比维持下跌5.4%,同比维持正增长 36. 9%仍处于高位。中国-欧洲航线运力环比回落13.9%，同比回落9.4%，地中海航线运力高位环比回落8.5%，同比上涨29.3%。 发往美国裁货集装箱箱量数据方面,据彭博统计,近期中国发往美国载货集装箱船箱量维持回落,截至7月21日,本周发运 载货箱量达49.5万TEU,环比回落12.5%,数量达62艘,周度回落8.8%,近期发运运力规模维持震荡下行。 国内港口吞吐量上涨。 ...