CHIll Andrews 2026年1月30日 中信期货研究所 宏观研究组 投资咨询业务资格: 正监许可 2012 669号 【贵金属】异动点评 1月30日金银价格自高位回落。伦敦金现盘中一度下探至5067美元/盎司附近:伦敦银同步走弱,价格回落至100美元/盎司附 近。在前期连续快速拉升并刷新历史高位后,贵金属整体进入高位震荡并伴随回落,短期价格波动明显放大。 美联储主席提名预期持续扰动市场,美元走强压制贵金属价格。特朗普表示将很快公布下一任美联储主席候选人,市场对 凯文 · 沃什获提名的预期进一步升温,并将其解读为相对更偏鹰的政策情景之一,美元阶段性走强,对金银形成持续压力。 从交易层面看,当前回落仍主要由预期变化与仓位调整驱动,尚未演变为系统性风险出清。 在风险偏好阶段性回落背景下,贵金属出现一定"流动性出清"特征。前期快速上涨积累了较高的短线多头与杠杆头寸, 在美元反弹与政策预期扰动下,获利了结与被动减仓共振,放大了回撤幅度,但并未伴随实际金融条件的系统性收紧。 展望后市,金银预计整体维持高位震荡格局。若沃什提名预期继续强化,美元与政策立场交易或对贵金属形成阶段性压 制,但美联储独立性争议,财政扩张 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bullish view on the precious metals market, expecting an optimistic path for interest rate cuts. However, it suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties in US platinum tariffs and the actual nomination of the Fed Chairman, and to look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 30, 2026, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and the decline of market sentiment, platinum and palladium futures contracts on GFEX tumbled. The platinum main contract dropped 8.79% to 657 yuan per gram, and the palladium main contract dropped 7.25% to 48.85 yuan per gram. The change in market expectations due to the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman led to a short - term strengthening of the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Also, OME's increase in margin requirements cooled market sentiment [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply: In 2026, major platinum and palladium mining companies are expected to maintain stable production with output recovery, but overall production is limited due to few new project launches. Global platinum mine and refined production are expected to rise 2.8% and 4.8% to 173.6 tons and 228.2 tons respectively, and palladium mine and refined production are expected to rise 0.3% and 2.2% to 198.9 tons and 209.4 tons respectively. Attention should be paid to short - term supply risks caused by bad weather, labor disputes, and power shortages [4] - Demand: In 2026, global economic recovery will drive the continued recovery of platinum industrial demand and an upward trend in jewelry demand, offsetting the decline in automotive catalyst demand. Platinum investment demand may be stimulated by price fluctuations and domestic futures listing, with an expected 0.7% increase to 266.1 tons. Palladium demand is under significant downward pressure, with an expected 1.7% decline to 282.4 tons [4] - Supply - demand balance: In 2026, there will be a 37.9 - ton shortage in the global platinum market and a 16.9 - ton surplus in the palladium market [4] Summary and Strategy - The short - term geopolitical tension remains unresolved, and the market expects Trump's influence on the Fed to increase. The report maintains a bullish view but suggests short - term investors to wait and watch due to uncertainties and look for buying opportunities after price stabilization [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations". The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the export's marginal support for growth cannot offset the insufficient domestic demand. The price remains low, and the credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in the observation and verification stage, and the improvement of physical work and demand is expected to be concentrated in the first quarter. Overall, the short - term domestic fundamentals have limited direct support for risk assets, and the market is waiting for further confirmation of policy effects and data [11]. - Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is slowly falling, and policy uncertainty is rising. The US consumption is still resilient but with weakening internal momentum. Core inflation is cooling, but service - item inflation is sticky. The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's leadership change expectation, increasing policy uncertainty and asset - pricing differentiation. However, the overseas macro - environment is still conducive to the resilience of risk assets [11]. - In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate medium - cap style in domestic equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; keep a neutral position in national bonds and standard - allocate 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate precious metals such as gold and silver; over - allocate non - ferrous metals like copper and tin; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 29, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4784, with a daily increase of 0.79%, a weekly increase of 1.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4%. The SSE 50 futures price was 3130.4, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 3.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8517.6, with a daily decrease of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 1.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 15.68%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8329, with a daily decrease of 0.51%, a weekly decrease of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 12.01% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with no daily change, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.875, with a daily increase of 0.02%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.11%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.25, with a daily increase of 0.06%, a weekly increase of 0.05%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.36%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.17, with a daily increase of 0.08%, a weekly decrease of 0.12%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.68% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9481, with a daily decrease of 64 pips, a weekly decrease of 151 pips, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 409 pips [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.5479%, with a daily decrease of 3.54 basis points, a weekly increase of 5.44 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 43.42 basis points. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.8164%, with a daily decrease of 1.47 basis points, a weekly decrease of 1.34 basis points, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3.09 basis points. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, with a daily increase of 2 basis points [2]. 3.2 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 28, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price was 63.5, with a daily increase of 1.78%, a weekly increase of 3.62%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.61%. ICE Brent crude oil price was 67.69, with a daily increase of 1.65%, a weekly increase of 3.44%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 11.13%. NYMEX natural gas price was 3.723, with a daily decrease of 2.54%, a weekly increase of 2.2%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.32%. ICE UK natural gas price was 90.36, with a daily decrease of 1.7%, a weekly decrease of 12.25%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 21.11% [5]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price was 5411, with a daily increase of 4.47%, a weekly increase of 8.59%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 24.9%. COMEX silver price was 116.62, with a daily increase of 10.06%, a weekly increase of 12.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 64.3% [5]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price was 13086.5, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.32%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 4.72%. LME aluminum price was 3257, with a daily increase of 1.56%, a weekly increase of 2.63%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 8.68%. LME zinc price was 3364, with a daily increase of 0.39%, a weekly increase of 2.91%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 7.61%. LME tin price was 25953, with a daily increase of 1.96%, a weekly decrease of 1.15%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 38.26% [5]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price was 1074.75, with a daily increase of 0.7%, a weekly increase of 0.68%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 2.63%. CBOT soybean oil price was 54.35, with a daily decrease of 0.11%, a weekly increase of 0.78%, a monthly decrease of 0.67%, and a quarterly and annual increase of 11.95%. CBOT corn price was 430.75, with a daily increase of 1%, no weekly change, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 2.32%. CBOT wheat price was 535.25, with a daily increase of 2.29%, a weekly increase of 0.94%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 5.68%. ICE No. 2 cotton price was 63.64, with a daily decrease of 0.3%, a weekly decrease of 0.31%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 1.03% [5]. 3.3 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: On January 29, 2026, the freight rate of container shipping on the European route was 1349.09, with a daily increase of 3.21%, a weekly increase of 9.46%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 11.36% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price was 1250.65, with a daily increase of 5.29%, a weekly increase of 12.02%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 27.64%. Silver price was 30452.18, with a daily increase of 4.42%, a weekly increase of 22.06%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 78.31% [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil price was 474.41, with a daily increase of 2.57%, a weekly increase of 6.89%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.59%. Fuel oil price was 2802.96, with a daily increase of 2.94%, a weekly increase of 7.01%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.38%. Low - sulfur fuel oil price was 3316.32, with a daily increase of 2.6%, a weekly increase of 6.48%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 13.76%. Asphalt price was 3472.58, with a daily increase of 2.04%, a weekly increase of 7.28%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 14.39% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price was 14641.24, with a daily increase of 0.91%, a weekly decrease of 0.54%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 10.8%. Aluminum price was 17208.52, with a daily increase of 1.13%, a weekly decrease of 0.85%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 0.85% [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel price was 3165.04, with a daily increase of 0.67%, a weekly increase of 0.57%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 1.4%. Iron ore price was 796.29, with a daily increase of 1.94%, a weekly increase of 0.36%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 0.9%. Coke price had the first round of price increase, and the market sentiment was positive. Coking coal price was weak and stable in the spot market, and the futures price was strong [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean meal price was 2848.88, with a daily increase of 0.5%, a weekly increase of 1.35%. Soybean oil price was 8366.29, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a weekly increase of 3.49%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 6.4%. Palm oil price was 9347.99, with a daily increase of 0.97%, and a monthly, quarterly, and annual increase of 9.08% [8]. 3.4 Short - term Judgment of Each Sector - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with index opportunities being better than individual stocks. Stock index options are expected to be volatile, with intraday style switching and increased option trading volume. National bond futures are expected to be volatile, with the short - end of the bond market showing a strong trend [12]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Gold is driven by the smooth expectation of liquidity easing and the resurgence of geopolitical conflicts. Silver is supported by the tight spot structure and is sensitive to liquidity and the cyclical drive [12]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping on the European route is expected to be volatile, affected by geopolitical emotions and the downward pressure of off - season freight rates [12]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to be volatile. Steel is supported by cost and the futures price is rising from a low level. Iron ore has a slight decrease in molten iron production and an accelerated inventory build - up in the downstream [12]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, stainless steel, and tin are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Copper is rising due to the significant decline of the US dollar index. Aluminum is rising due to optimistic capital sentiment. Nickel is rising due to the game between policy expectations and weak reality [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals Sector**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle chips, propylene, PP, plastic, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are all expected to be volatile. Crude oil is affected by supply pressure and geopolitical factors. LPG is affected by the weakening chemical demand and the risk from Iran [14]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Oils, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, and cotton are expected to rise in a volatile manner. Oils are continuing their upward trend. Natural rubber has broken through the previous high and is continuing to rise. Protein meal, corn/starch, and sugar are expected to be volatile. Protein meal is pushed up by short - covering, and corn/starch and sugar are affected by various factors such as demand, macro - environment, and production [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide a comprehensive industry - wide investment rating. However, for individual products, the general outlooks are mostly "震荡" (oscillating), which implies a neutral stance in the short - to - medium term for most energy and chemical products. 2. Core Viewpoints - The confrontation between the US and Iran has intensified, driving up Brent crude oil futures prices to $70 per barrel for the first time since September, and SC crude oil futures almost hit the daily limit. This has led to an increase in the cost of oil - based chemical products. Meanwhile, the chemical industry chain is entering the off - season, with开工率 (operating rates) of many downstream sectors such as textile and polyester declining [2]. - The overall view is that the situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran relationship, will support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry should be treated with an oscillating mindset [2]. 3. Summary by Product Categories 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitical factors dominate the market rhythm. The situation in Iran is expected to increase supply concerns, and short - term support comes from a weak US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. The outlook is oscillating as the fundamental supply is in surplus, but geopolitical premiums may fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: Geopolitical premiums and rising spot prices have led to a significant increase in asphalt futures prices. Although the current price is in an over - valued range, the cost of crude oil supports the price. The outlook is oscillating, and the long - term valuation is expected to decline. The inventory accumulation pressure is high due to the off - season demand [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premiums support high - sulfur fuel oil. However, the expected increase in heavy - oil supply from Venezuela and the substitution of fuel oil in the Middle East's power - generation sector are long - term negative factors. The outlook is oscillating, with short - term focus on geopolitical trends in the Middle East [9]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil and oscillates strongly. Although it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution by green energy, its current low valuation may lead it to follow the movement of crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [12]. 3.5 PX - **View**: The valuation of chemical products is relatively high, and the price increase is less than that of crude oil. The short - term supply and demand pattern is prone to inventory accumulation, but the market has expectations for future supply reduction due to maintenance. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with short - term price support at around 7,250 yuan/ton for the PX05 contract [13]. 3.6 PTA - **View**: Supply has increased, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and profits have been compressed. The cost support from rising international oil prices remains, but the high valuation of the chemical industry limits the price increase. The outlook is oscillating and slightly strengthening, with support at around 5,200 yuan/ton for the TA05 contract [13]. 3.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: It oscillates due to the game between expectations and reality. Short - term high inventory may limit the price increase, but the fundamentals are expected to improve in the first quarter. The outlook is oscillating [15]. 3.8 Styrene - **View**: Recent price increases are due to capital behavior and export expectations. The short - term supply is tight, but seasonal inventory accumulation may lead to a profit reduction. The outlook is oscillating, and the reduction amplitude is expected to be limited [18]. 3.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The driving force is general, and it is more affected by the commodity market atmosphere and device disturbances. The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to adjust within a range. The outlook is for short - term price consolidation within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton for the EG05 contract [19]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: Spot trading is weak, and the driving force is general. The cost has a certain supporting effect, but the demand is seasonally weak. The outlook is that the price will follow the upstream market, and the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end [22]. 3.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: It follows the cost fluctuations, and the support at the lower end of the profit is strengthening. The price is mainly anchored to the cost of upstream raw materials and has no obvious trend. The outlook is that the absolute price will follow the raw material price, the processing fee will have stronger support at the lower end, and attention should be paid to the long - PR and short - TA position [24]. 3.12 Methanol - **View**: There is a long - short game in the coastal area, and it oscillates within a range. The domestic production area is reducing prices to clear inventory, while the consumer market is relatively strong. The coastal market is affected by the low - start of downstream MTO devices and high inventory. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term trading may be mainly affected by overseas situations [26]. 3.13 Urea - **View**: The pre - holiday factory order collection is smooth, and the price is slightly strengthening. The supply is sufficient, and the demand from the agricultural sector has a certain increase, while the industrial demand is cautious. The outlook is oscillating, and in the short - term, the price may fluctuate slightly and may be slightly strengthening [27]. 3.14 LLDPE - **View**: Supported by raw materials, it follows the upward trend. The increase in oil prices and natural gas prices has a positive impact, but the demand is in the off - season, and the follow - up of spot prices is limited. The outlook is short - term oscillation [32]. 3.15 PP - **View**: It follows the upward trend of oil prices in the short - term. The increase in oil prices and the repair of production profits are positive factors, but the demand is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased recently. The outlook is short - term oscillation [33]. 3.16 PL - **View**: The inventory pressure is not large, and it oscillates. The PDH maintenance has a positive impact, but the downstream demand is in the off - season. The outlook is short - term oscillation [34]. 3.17 PVC - **View**: Supported by low valuation, it oscillates. Geopolitical factors and the "export at low prices" strategy provide certain support, but the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The outlook is oscillating, and the short - term "export at low prices" and low valuation support the market, but the fundamental pressure has not been reversed [37]. 3.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The electricity price has been slightly reduced, and the cost is decreasing. The high production and weak demand lead to inventory accumulation, and the spot price is under pressure. The outlook is oscillating and slightly weakening, and short positions should stop losses at low prices before the Spring Festival [39]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring 4.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides detailed inter - period spread data for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., showing the changes in different contract spreads [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes basis and warehouse receipt data for multiple products, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of warehouse receipts [42]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents inter - variety spread data, such as the spread between PP and methanol, and between PTA and ethylene glycol, which helps in analyzing the relative price relationships between different products [43]. 4.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the sub - sections for each product are listed, the specific data and analysis content are not fully filled in the report. 5. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all show an upward trend. For example, the commodity 20 index increased by + 2.61% to 2995.74, and the energy index rose by + 2.48% to 1195.87 on January 29, 2026 [283][284].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For stock index futures, the index opportunities are better than individual stocks. The equity market was differentiated on Thursday, with the dividend and large-cap styles being strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro-cap styles being weak. The strong sectors were concentrated in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" had a positive impact on pro - cyclical sectors. There is a concentration of profit - making effects, and it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. - For stock index options, there was an intraday style switch, and option trading volume rebounded. After the market style switch, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - end of the bond market showed a strong trend. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising risk appetite in the equity market was negative for the long - end. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, the equity market was differentiated. The dividend and large - cap styles were strong, and the science and technology innovation and micro - cap styles were weak. The strong sectors were in real estate, media, and liquor. The cancellation of the "three red lines" was an important factor for the market rebound. There were more falling stocks than rising stocks, with nearly a thousand stocks falling more than 3%. The profit - making effect was concentrated [1][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: Apart from the inflation theme, there is no core logical change. In the context of a weakening US dollar, it is recommended to focus on the price - increase chain and prioritize the allocation of IC long positions [1][6]. (2) Stock Index Options - **Market Situation**: The underlying market oscillated in the morning and had a style switch in the afternoon. Large - cap blue - chips represented by the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 rose significantly, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 - related varieties fell. Option trading volume rebounded. The 50ETF volatility did not rise significantly after the increase, and the seller's cautious attitude wavered [2][6]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: After the market movement, the skewness of each variety remained low, and the volatility remained high. It is recommended to wait for the opportunity to sell options and hold long call options for the time being [2][6]. (3) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Situation**: Most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures rose. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds were differentiated, with long - term bonds being weak and short - term bonds being strong, and the yield curve steepened. The central bank's net injection of liquidity supported the short - end of the bond market, while the rising equity market was negative for the long - end [3][7]. - **Outlook and Suggestion**: The central bank still cares about the money market, and the end - of - month factor may have limited impact on the money market. The long - end trend is uncertain and may remain volatile. Short - term strategies may focus on arbitrage and the convergence opportunity of the 30 - 10Y treasury bond term spread [3][7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-30 去美元化交易加速，⾦银同步刷新历史 ⾼位 贵⾦属延续极端强势。美元⾛弱、主权债与法币信任受损、地缘与政策不 确定性叠加，去美元化交易进⼊加速阶段。⻩⾦突破5500美元关⼝，⽩银 同步创历史新⾼，⾦强银更强的结构维持，但⾼位波动与流动性约束开始 显性化。（以上新闻和数据均来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点：去美元化交易主导，黄金进入加速再定价阶段。 逻辑：美元指数持续回落、日债与欧美主权债波动放大，推动资金从 债券与法币体系向黄金迁移。市场对美联储独立性、财政扩张与政策 工具有效性的担忧强化，黄金作为"最终结算资产"的配置需求快速 放大。短期内，趋势资金与被动配置共振，推动价格连续突破关键整 数位，但银行资产负债表约束抬升波动率。（以上新闻和数据均来自 彭博终端） 展望：中期上行逻辑未改，但短期超买信号显著，需关注高位震荡与 阶段性回撤风险。若美元弱势延续，黄金仍具顺趋势配置价值。 白银观点：白银弹性释放加速。 逻辑： 在黄金强势定价框架下，白银补涨属性与流动性驱动凸显。 工业与金融双重属性叠加，资金在金价持续创新高背景下向 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2026-01-30 弱美元+地缘风险升温，铂钯震荡偏强 据同花顺数据，截⾄2026年1⽉26⽇收盘，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价714.1 元/克，涨幅1.94%；GFEX钯主⼒合约收盘价为526.6元/克，涨幅 2.95%。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变化； 主产区供应扰动 铂观点：地缘风险升温叠加美元走弱，铂金震荡偏强 主要逻辑：据新华社1月29日消息，美国总统特朗普"正考虑对伊朗发动 新的重大打击"，中东局势紧张加剧。此外日元走强对美元汇率构成下行 压力，这对铂价形成一定支撑。短期铂价或延续震荡偏强走势，可关注择 机低吸做多机会。然而新任美联储新任主席提名、美国对铂钯关税预期同 样是近期影响市场的关键因素，短期不确定性仍存，需警惕价格波动加大 风险，建议投资者做好仓位控制。展望未来，供给方面，南非作为全球铂 族金属的主要供应国，未来仍存在电力供应以及极端天气风险。需求方 面，铂金市场整体处于结构性扩张阶段，汽车催化剂领域需求保持相对稳 定，氢能产业为未来重要增长点，首饰和投资需求扩张，同时"降息+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has returned to the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruptions, causing base metals to rise rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, with the return of the weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns, and the breakdown of the US dollar index, base metals are rising rapidly. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [1]. - The prices of copper, aluminum, tin, nickel, and other metals are expected to show different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong; alumina prices are likely to fluctuate; aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong in the short - term and the price center may rise in the long - term [1][7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Copper - **Viewpoint**: The US dollar index has declined significantly, and copper prices are trending strongly. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On January 29, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 175 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 75 yuan/ton. The copper social inventory was 335,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,500 tons. The 25% copper concentrate spot TC was - 50.2 US dollars/dry ton, with no month - on - month change. The US Southern Copper Corporation expects its copper production to decline to 91,140 tons in 2026. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the recent weakening of the US dollar index has boosted the prices of commodities with strong monetary attributes. In terms of supply and demand, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the decline of copper concentrate spot TC continues. The 2026 copper mine long - term processing fee has reached a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Although the terminal demand is weak and the inventory is high, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Volatile and strong [7]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The expectation of production cuts is competing with the reality of oversupply, causing alumina prices to fluctuate. On January 29, 2026, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2,610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161,521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,402 tons. - **Main Logic**: Recently, the macro - sentiment has amplified the market fluctuations. Fundamentally, the average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and the domestic market maintains a strong inventory accumulation trend. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: Volatile [7]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to trend strongly. On January 29, 2026, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24,822 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 578 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 195 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory was 800,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,000 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory was 253,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts were 142,705 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 124 tons. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the statement of the interest - rate cut meeting was neutral, and China's new infrastructure and new energy policies continued to be implemented, with the expectation of continued loose liquidity. On the supply side, the domestic operating capacity and operating rate are at a high level, and there is a risk of power shortage overseas, and the progress of new project commissioning needs further observation. On the demand side, the high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and the weekly inventory has accumulated. In general, in the short - term, the positive macro - expectation and the tight supply - demand expectation are expected to keep aluminum prices volatile and strong. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and demand will maintain a resilient growth, and the aluminum price center is expected to rise [8][9][10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: The market follows the price of aluminum ingots and has increased. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short - term, providing strong cost support. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate has increased month - on - month, but the tax refund policy and tax burden transfer may still restrict supply in the medium - term. On the demand side, in the short - term, purchases are mainly for刚需 at high prices, and in the medium - term, the automobile trade - in policy will support the improvement of domestic demand. The weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium - term, the cost - support logic will be strengthened, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight balance, with prices expected to be volatile and strong [11]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The rise in overseas natural gas prices has led to a volatile upward trend in zinc prices. On January 29, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 55 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 10 yuan/ton. As of January 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 107,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. - **Main Logic**: Although the recently announced US economic data is positive, the expectation of a weak US dollar still exists. On the supply side, the decline rate of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the short - term supply of zinc ore is still tight, and smelter profits have declined. In the short - term, the previously locked - price zinc ingots will continue to be imported, and the supply pressure is not significant. On the demand side, domestic consumption has entered the off - season, and the demand expectation is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory has room to decline, so zinc prices may continue to be volatile at a high level. In the long - term, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, and zinc prices may decline. - **Outlook**: In January, zinc ingot production has increased month - on - month, and downstream demand has entered the off - season. However, short - term domestic zinc ingot exports will continue, and the domestic zinc ingot social inventory is difficult to accumulate significantly. Considering the overall strength of the non - ferrous metal sector, zinc prices are expected to be volatile [12][13]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The social inventory of lead has accumulated, but the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector is positive, causing lead prices to rise in a volatile manner. On January 29, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,750 - 16,850 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The domestic main market lead ingot social inventory was 38,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,500 tons; the latest Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 29,418 tons (unchanged). - **Main Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium has slightly decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead and the futures warehouse receipts have remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has remained stable. The previously shut - down secondary lead smelters in Anhui have resumed production, and the weekly lead ingot output has increased slightly. On the demand side, the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, and the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: As primary and secondary lead smelters resume production, lead ingot output remains high. The demand for lead ingots has weakened marginally, and the lead ingot import window has opened. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [15]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy is competing with the weak reality, causing the nickel price to rise in the market. On January 29, 2026, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 46,854 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,032 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 286,470 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output increased again month - on - month in December 2025, and the overall output of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel matte in Indonesia remained at a high level in December, so the overall supply pressure of nickel still exists. On the demand side, it has entered the traditional consumption off - season. Although the stainless - steel production schedule has increased month - on - month due to profit repair, the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. In terms of policy, Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for next year's nickel cost and balance. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved significantly. It is expected that the supply - demand will remain loose in January, and the high LME inventory will suppress prices. However, due to the potential policy changes in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [16]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The firm price of nickel iron has led to an upward trend in the stainless - steel market. On January 29, 2026, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 43,519 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,925 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 stainless steel was at a discount of - 185 yuan/ton to the main stainless - steel contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,045 - 1,075 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, including tax), with no month - on - month change. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron has recovered month - on - month, and the chromium price has remained stable, providing some support to the stainless - steel cost. The stainless - steel output decreased month - on - month in December 2025, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. Currently, the social inventory has not shown obvious accumulation, but there may be some inventory pressure during the off - season, and the warehouse receipts remain at a low level. - **Outlook**: The production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the downstream demand is expected to be weak in the traditional off - season, which will suppress prices. However, considering the long - term suppression of industrial chain profits and the support from the mine end, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][19]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: The supply shortage continues, and tin prices are trending strongly. On January 29, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 25 tons month - on - month to 7,060 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 163 tons month - on - month to 8,494 tons; the Shanghai tin open interest decreased by 3,821 lots month - on - month to 106,892 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 438,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The tin supply problem is the key factor affecting prices. The explosive approval issue in Wa State is expected to be resolved soon, which may ease the local supply shortage. Indonesia's tin production quota this year may be set at 60,000 tons, but short - term supply will still be restricted due to the RKAB approval. The landslide in the Walikale area of North Kivu Province in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased supply concerns. In the future, the mine supply will continue to tighten, and the refined tin output will be difficult to increase. The recent increase in tin concentrate processing fees reflects the increasing financial pressure on some smelters. On the demand side, the US and Europe are in an interest - rate cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal side is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and the consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: With high supply risks, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20]. 2.行情监测 Copper No specific monitoring content provided. Alumina No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum No specific monitoring content provided. Aluminum Alloy No specific monitoring content provided. Zinc No specific monitoring content provided. Lead No specific monitoring content provided. Nickel No specific monitoring content provided. Stainless Steel No specific monitoring content provided. Tin No specific monitoring content provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 (January 29, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index was 2,995.74, an increase of 2.61%; the industrial products index was 2,422.72, an increase of 1.88%; the PPI commodity index was 1,509.62, an increase of 2.38%. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 29, 2026 was 2,977.78, with a daily increase of 3.02%, a 5 - day increase of 5.29%, a 1 - month increase of 11.30%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.86% [146][147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having their own characteristics and outlooks. Some commodities are expected to be volatile and bullish, some are volatile and bearish, and some are in a state of shock [1][6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Market Outlook - **Oils and Fats**: The upward trend of oils and fats continues. Due to the warm macro - environment, positive mid - term fundamental sentiment, and continuous capital inflows, oils and fats futures continued to rise. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after corrections and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil. The outlook is that soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all volatile and bullish [6][7]. - **Protein Meal**: The reduction of short positions in double meals pushed up the market. At the end of the stocking period, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. Overseas soybean supply is expected to increase, while domestic oil mills' soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high, and downstream stocking is coming to an end. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market stopped falling and fluctuated. Downstream stocking is approaching the end, and the market is in a tight balance. The short - term market has a ceiling and a floor, with limited upward momentum [10][11]. - **Hogs**: Supply and demand are loose, and hog prices are weak. In the short term, there is pressure from concentrated supply before the Spring Festival; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. The outlook is volatile and bearish [12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: It strongly broke through the previous high, and the rubber price continued to rise. It is mainly driven by the macro - environment, with no significant change in fundamentals. The outlook is that the fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is volatile and bullish [1][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous driving force has eased. The BR market mainly followed the rise of natural rubber, and the mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. The outlook is that it is volatile and bullish in the medium term after short - term adjustment [17][18]. - **Cotton**: The position decreased, but the price was firm. The fundamentals have not changed much recently, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium and long term, while the short - term upward height may be limited [18]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price rebounded, and attention should be paid to the upward pressure. The global raw sugar market in the 2025/26 crushing season is likely to have a supply surplus, and the price is expected to be volatile and bearish [19]. - **Pulp**: The fundamentals are weak, and the market is in a horizontal fluctuation. The demand for pulp is decreasing seasonally, and there are more bearish factors. The outlook is volatile and bearish [20][21]. - **Double - offset Paper**: It fluctuates in a narrow range. The market supply pressure exists, the demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and bearish [22][23]. - **Logs**: The external market price is expected to rise, and logs are volatile and bullish. There are marginal positive drivers in the log market, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [25]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index showed an upward trend on January 29, 2026. The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and the agricultural product index all had positive growth rates [186][187].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment has warmed up, and the market is operating strongly. The pace of steel mill复产 is slow, and the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, and there are disturbances on the coking coal supply side, leading to a rebound in the market at a low level. In the off - season, the inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation for the time being, and the market follows the cost to strengthen. Glass and soda ash follow the sector to strengthen, but the oversupply continues to limit the upside space of the market [1] - In general, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream inventory replenishment intensity. At the same time, the resumption of production of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the inventory replenishment expectation. At that time, the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound. Pay attention to the disturbance of macro - policies [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - The arrival volume of iron ore has decreased, and the short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, but the inventory pressure is still increasing. The commodity sentiment is strong, and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. The scrap steel supply is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [1] 3.2 Carbon Element - The possibility of a significant increase in coke supply is low, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side. The output of domestic coal mines will gradually decline approaching the holiday, and the coking coal fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. When the market rises to a high level, it may face selling pressure from hedging. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity restricts the upside space of the market. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [2] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disturbances for glass, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis 3.5.1 Steel - The cost support is strengthening, and the market is rising from a low level. The spot market trading is average. The profitability of steel mills has shrunk slightly, the molten iron output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has increased slightly. In the off - season, the demand for building materials continues to weaken seasonally, and the steel export shows a sign of a high - level decline, but the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. The inventory accumulation pressure of steel products is becoming more obvious, and the overall inventory level is still moderately high. The market is expected to oscillate widely [8] 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The molten iron output has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the downstream inventory is accumulating rapidly. Overseas mine shipping has increased, and the arrival volume has continued to weaken. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and the steel mill inventory is increasing rapidly. The port inventory is still accumulating. The short - term supply pressure has eased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still increasing. The pre - holiday inventory replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [8] 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrival volume this week has decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline seasonally. The supply of scrap steel is stable, and the daily consumption is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, but the recent warming of the commodity market sentiment is expected to drive the spot price to follow the finished products [9] 3.5.4 Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, and the market sentiment is warm. The supply of coke has decreased month - on - month, the demand is supported by rigid demand, and the inventory of steel mills is increasing steadily. The supply - demand structure will continue to be healthy, but the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is also limited. The spot price may remain stable after the price increase is implemented, and the market is expected to follow the coking coal on the cost side [12] 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The spot price is oscillating weakly and stably, and the market is operating strongly. The domestic supply is stable, the import volume is still high, and the inventory of upstream coal mines is being continuously digested. The fundamentals have limited changes. The spot price may remain oscillating before the Spring Festival, and the sustainability of the current warm sentiment in the market remains to be observed, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3.5.6 Glass - The downstream is approaching the holiday, and the production and sales are weakening month - on - month. The supply may be disturbed, the demand is weak, and the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [14] 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the price is oscillating. The supply has increased slightly, the demand is weakening, and the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [14][17] 3.5.8 Manganese - Silicon - Driven by the macro - sentiment, the market is rising, and attention should be paid to the selling pressure at the upper level. The cost is expected to increase, the demand support is weakening, and the supply is difficult to digest the high - level inventory. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price of the main contract is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [17] 3.5.9 Silicon - Iron - The supply - demand driving force is limited, and it is difficult for the market to maintain a high level. The cost support still exists, the demand support is weakening, and the daily output is at a low level. The market has weak supply and demand, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is difficult for the futures price of the main contract to maintain a high level. In the long - term, the futures price may still oscillate around the cost valuation [19]