股指期权方面，备兑为主，短线买权防御。昨日权益指数震荡走弱， 沪指单日收跌0.81%。期权方面，各个品种成交额再度提升12.15%。连续 几日的流动性上行，叠加情绪指标持仓量PCR指标大幅走弱，以及隐含波 动率平均提涨0.69%。综合来看，市场对冲避险情绪凸显。策略方面，我 们仍建议续持备兑策略防御为主。同时，如果认为当前权益市场在年末资 金偏紧、海外降息预期回落等背景影响下，短期有高位回落可能，可以适 当补充看跌买权进行对冲保护。 国债期货方面，税期因素有所扰动，但影响或有限。昨日国债期货小 幅上涨，截止收盘， T、TF、TS、TL主力合约分别上涨0.03%、0.03%、0. 01%、0.06%。昨日国债期货T主力合约上午走势较为震荡，午后有所走 强。近期来看，税期因素或对资金面以及债市情绪形成一定扰动，资金利 率小幅上行，昨日DR001和DR007分别录得1.53%和1.52%。不过在央行对资 金面的呵护下，整体影响或不大。央行昨日在公开市场操作中虽然净投放 规模有所下降，但是整体仍呈现净投放状态。另外昨日股市表现仍偏弱， 上证指数继续有所回调，风险偏好回落以及股债跷跷板可能也对债市情绪 继续有一定带动。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including sugar, oils and fats, protein meals, corn/starch, pigs, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, cotton, pulp, offset paper, and logs, providing short - and medium - term outlooks and trading strategies for each [1][6][7][9][11][14][16][17][18][21]. - Overall, different products face various market situations, with some showing short - term support but medium - to - long - term downward pressure, while others are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and cost, resulting in complex market trends. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar - **View**: The sugar price is testing the support at 5400 yuan/ton again [1][17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to see increased sugar production in Brazil, India, Thailand, and China, leading to a surplus in the international sugar market and downward pressure on prices. In the short - term, Brazil's export volume is decreasing, and the domestic market is supported by tightened import policies and expected reduced imports [1][17]. - **Outlook**: Medium - to - long - term is weak with a downward trend; short - term price range is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton, and the operation idea is to short on rallies [2][17]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: The cost of domestic soybean oil has increased, and it is oscillating strongly; palm oil is oscillating, and rapeseed oil is oscillating [6]. - **Logic**: From a macro perspective, the market is waiting for US economic data, and there are differences in the Fed's monetary policy. From an industrial perspective, the expectation of US soybean exports is fluctuating, and the planting progress in South America is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is high, and the de - stocking speed of soybean oil is slow. The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased, and the consumption of palm oil in Indonesia's biodiesel has increased. The supply of rapeseed in China is currently tight but is expected to increase later [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is oscillating strongly, palm oil and rapeseed oil are oscillating. The market is affected by multiple long and short factors [6]. 3.3 Protein Meals - **View**: China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and the internal and external market fluctuations have intensified [6]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the USDA has lowered US soybean exports, but China's procurement may return. US soybean crushing volume has reached a new high, and South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. Domestically, the import profit of soybeans has improved, but the January shipment is still at a loss. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is high, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased [6]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and domestic soybean and rapeseed meals are oscillating. It is recommended to buy at low prices around 3000 - 3050 but not to chase the rise [6]. 3.4 Corn/Starch - **View**: The spot price continues to rise, and the futures price has a slight correction [7]. - **Logic**: The supply of corn has decreased due to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the demand has increased due to the tight inventory of feed - using enterprises in the sales area. The state - owned grain reserve rotation is ongoing, and the import auction has a high transaction rate. However, the new grain listing pressure has not been fully released [7][8]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. In the short - term, the spot price is strong, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.5 Pigs - **View**: The supply of pigs for slaughter is abundant, and the pig price is weak [9]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms has increased slightly, and the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow. In the medium - term, the number of pigs for slaughter is expected to continue to increase. In the long - term, the production capacity of sows is showing signs of reduction [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating weakly. In the near - term, the slaughter pressure at the end of the year is large; in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.6 Natural Rubber - **View**: It continues to oscillate in a narrow range [11]. - **Logic**: Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, providing some support. However, demand has not changed significantly recently. If there is no strong expectation difference or macro - drive, the rubber price may face downward pressure [13]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - oscillating and highly elastic trend. Pay attention to widening the RU - NR spread [13]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price maintains an oscillating trend [14]. - **Logic**: The futures price has rebounded recently but has not reversed. The main reason for the support is the relatively stable transaction of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the market sentiment is still cautious [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are high. It is recommended to short on rallies before butadiene shows obvious supply - demand contradictions [15]. 3.8 Cotton - **View**: The cotton price is adjusting downward [16]. - **Logic**: The USDA's November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the domestic new cotton production is expected to increase. The downstream demand is weakening, and the supply is increasing in the fourth quarter. The price is in a correction stage [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the 01 contract has a correction risk; in the long - term, the valuation is low and it is oscillating strongly [16]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The 01 contract funds continue to flow out, and the correction pressure persists [17]. - **Logic**: The main reason for the recent correction of the 01 contract is the continuous exit of long - side funds. There is an obvious position - shifting phenomenon, which accelerates the capital exit. The supply and demand are both high, and there is no serious contradiction. The market is mainly driven by funds [18]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The futures market is dominated by funds, and pulp futures are mainly in a wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Offset paper is following the decline of pulp [18]. - **Logic**: In November, the overall fundamentals are at the bottom - building stage. The price is affected by factors such as the paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream demand, and cost. In December, the market may be dragged down by the dealers' price - cutting for sales. In the first quarter of 2026, the market may enter a stage of narrow - range oscillation [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly following the pulp as the paper mills' price - increasing sentiment is high [18]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: It is oscillating in a narrow range and is at the bottom - building stage [21]. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is high in the long - term, and the demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026. The inventory is slowly decreasing in the short - term and is expected to increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [21]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have no clear contradictions, and the spot price is under pressure. It is oscillating at a low level recently [21]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 18, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2234.87, down 0.86%; the commodity 20 index was 2534.70, down 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2208.90, down 0.88% [179]. - The agricultural product index on November 18, 2025, was 928.27, with a daily decline of 0.46%, a 5 - day decline of 0.79%, a 1 - month increase of 0.04%, and a decline of 2.77% since the beginning of the year [181].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On November 18, equity index futures fell while CGB futures rose slightly; most commodities declined, with the energy & chemicals remaining weak and J and JM leading the losses [2][10][12][13]. - The top three gainers in commodity futures are Iron Ore, Chinese Jujube, and Lithium Carbonate, while the top three decliners are Coking Coal, SCFIS(Europe), and Coke [11][12][13]. - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% on November 18, with supply - side factors including overseas seasonal output increase and domestic factors like停割and warehouse receipt changes, and demand showing no significant change [16][17][19]. - Coking Coal fell 3.9% on November 18, with fundamentals still providing strong support and expected to trade with fluctuation [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% on November 18, with supply - demand remaining tight in the short - term, cost support weakening, and prices expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal [29][31]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On November 18, equity index futures (IH fell by 0.23%, IF dropped by 0.41%) fell while CGB futures (TL rose by 0.06%) rose slightly; most commodities declined, with energy & chemicals weak and J and JM leading losses [10]. - In commodity futures, top gainers are Iron Ore (up 1.4% with - 2.1% month - on - month position change), Chinese Jujube (up 1.2% with - 0.8% month - on - month position change), and Lithium Carbonate (up 0.9% with - 14.0% month - on - month position change); top decliners are Coking Coal (down 3.9% with + 2.1% month - on - month position change), SCFIS(Europe) (down 2.9% with - 0.1% month - on - month position change), and Coke (down 2.9% with + 2.4% month - on - month position change) [11][12][13]. 1.1 Daily Raise - TSR 20 rose by 0.5% to 12,345 yuan/ton on November 18. Supply - side: overseas seasonal output increase is smooth, raw materials are firm, domestic停割in November and RU warehouse receipt deregistration and NR warehouse receipt increase have impacts. Demand - side: no significant change in the past two weeks, downstream purchasing sentiment is good after price decline, but lack of strong directional drivers. Market is range - bound, with rubber prices having bottom resilience but no one - sided trending market [16][17][19]. 1.2 Daily Drop - Coking Coal fell 3.9% to 1,159 yuan/ton on November 18. Futures pressure weakened sentiment, increasing online auction failure rates and causing some coal price corrections. Fundamentals haven't deteriorated significantly, and prices are expected to trade with fluctuation. Supply: main producing area mines' production rhythm is mostly stable, overall supply recovers slowly; import: Mongolian coal clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is high but prime coking coal at the port is tight. Demand: coke output drops month - on - month, mid - and downstream purchases slow after replenishment, but mines have many advance orders, and upstream mines have slight inventory accumulation with little overall pressure [24][26]. - Coke fell 2.9% to 1,649.5 yuan/ton on November 18. In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, downstream steel mills may increase maintenance but significant production cuts are unlikely, so demand support remains. Short - term supply - demand is tight, inventory is decreasing, cost support has weakened, and futures are expected to fluctuate alongside coking coal. Supply: coking profits improve after four rounds of price hikes, and supply remains stable with relaxed environmental requirements in Henan. Demand: steel mills' profits shrink but willingness to cut production actively is low, molten iron output is high. Inventory: steel mills maintain strong purchasing momentum and upstream coking enterprises hold low inventories [29][30][31]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On November 17, the 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue was co - chaired by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and German Vice Chancellor and Federal Minister of Finance Christian Lindner. Both sides will strengthen macroeconomic policy coordination, enhance financial and economic cooperation, expand two - way market opening, and support the multilateral trading system [34]. - A Japanese Foreign Ministry official visited China from November 17. On the 18th, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department Director - General met with him, and China made solemn representations to Japan [34]. 2.2 Industry News - The 4th China - Germany High - Level Financial & Economic Dialogue joint statement mentions that both sides support strengthening exchanges and cooperation in securities, futures and derivatives sectors, encourage cross - border investment and operation of qualified financial institutions, and promote exchanges between regulatory and self - regulatory organizations. They also note the signing of a cooperation MoU by industry associations [35].

基本面情况 从基本面看，供应端：10月印尼操铁产量13.99万镇吨，环比+1.5%，同比+14%。10月印尼冰镇产量2.26万镇吨，环比+31%，同比-2%。10月印尼MHP产量4.07万镇吨，环 比2-2%，同比+33%。 10月国内精炼镜产量共计3.59万吨，环比+1%，同比+17%。2025年1-10月国内精版章量33.55万吨，同比+23%。需求端： 10月全国不锈钢厂量401万吨，环比 +3%，同比+6%； 1-10月国内不锈钢产量2873万吨，同比+6%； 10月印尼不锈钢产量41万吨，环比+2%，同比-2%； 1-10月印尼不锈钢累计产量410万吨，同比+3%。 10月三元材料产 量753600吨，环比+3%，同比+32%；1-10月三元材料产量85万吨，同比+15%。当前供给总体仍大于需求，俗镇库存持续累库至25.7604万吨，沪摸周度库存持续累年至3.5828万吨。 总结及策略 当前镇供需整体偏宽松，承压镇价偏弱运行。预期仍屈RKAB致敲与量仍存在抗动，但官方公布配额时间预期。预计在今年12月-2020年1月之间公布配额。市场预期配额总量存在 下滑，但实际供需基本面改善主要在2026年二季度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - **View**: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - **View**: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - **Logic**: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - **Outlook**: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - **Logic**: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - **Logic**: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The rebound power is weak [17]. - **Logic**: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - **Logic**: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - **Logic**: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - **Outlook**: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - **On November 17, 2025**: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-11-18 12⽉降息概率延续⾛低，贵⾦属调整 周⼀贵⾦属价格延续调整，随着美联储发⾔继续转鹰，12⽉降息概率进⼀ 步⾛低，同时⽩银租赁利率掉头回落，现货紧张的情绪缓解，⾦银同步维 持调整格局。短期市场预计进⼊预期抢跑后的价格回归阶段，贵⾦属降波 调整持续，关注本周美国GDP及⾮农数据披露。 重点资讯： 1）随着美国政府"停摆"结束，各州正在重新启动"补充营养援助 计划"（SNAP）救济金的发放工作，但与此同时，"大而美"税收与 支出法案对SNAP体系的全面收紧也正式生效。国会预算办公室预计， 新规将使全美约30万人最终失去SNAP资格。 2）日本经济财政政策会议会议纪要显示，日本央行行长植田和男表 示，日本央行正在追求一个能确保平稳着陆的利率水平；潜在通胀率 仍低于目标水平，因此将维持宽松的货币政策立场；从以稳定方式实 现2%通胀目标的角度来看，长期维持过于宽松的货币政策存在风险。 3）美国11月纽约联储制造业指数为18.7，为2024年11月以来新高， 预期5.8，前值10.7；就业指数为6.6，前值6.2；新订单指数 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - Currently, the industry's supply - demand situation is marginally weakening, in line with the characteristics of the off - season. This fundamental pattern is expected to continue, providing limited guidance on price trends. In the short term, the market will maintain an oscillatory trend. If there are still positive macro and policy signals in the later stage, staged upward opportunities can be observed [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments have increased significantly on a month - on - month basis. Both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries have seen growth. After reaching a peak, the arrival volume has continued to decline on a month - on - month basis. Port inventory has slightly decreased. Although iron ore replenishment demand has not been significantly released, there is still upward momentum in the short term after the previous rapid price decline. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, and it is expected that the short - term spot price will fluctuate with the finished products [2] Carbon Element - After the lifting of environmental protection restrictions, steel mills are still actively producing, and the demand for coke is still supported. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices are in a dilemma of rising or falling, and the coke futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal. The supply of coking coal is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [3] Alloys - In the short term, the firm cost supports the price of ferromanganese - silicon, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Steel - The third round and fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections have started, which will affect steel production in North China. The spot market transactions are generally good, but the profitability of steel mills is poor, and the production volume has decreased significantly. The demand has declined from a high level, and the overall inventory of steel continues to decline, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the futures will oscillate widely [7] Iron Ore - Port arrivals have declined on a month - on - month basis, and port inventory has slightly decreased. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the average arrival volume is relatively stable. The daily average pig iron production has recovered on a month - on - month basis, but there is still a seasonal weakening expectation. The overall inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. In the short term, after the previous rapid price decline, it is expected to oscillate strongly [8] Scrap Steel - The arrival volume at steel mills has slightly increased this week. The demand for scrap steel in electric furnaces has slightly increased, while the demand in blast furnaces has decreased. The inventory of steel enterprises has slightly increased. The supply - demand of scrap steel is weak on both sides, but the price has a certain cost - performance after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate with the finished products [9] Coke - After four rounds of price increases, the coking profit has improved, and the supply is temporarily stable. The demand is still supported, and the upstream inventory is low. In the short term, the supply - demand is still tight, and the inventory continues to decline, but the cost support has weakened. The futures price is expected to fluctuate with coking coal [11] Coking Coal - The supply is expected to remain sluggish. Although Mongolian coal imports may remain at a high level, the supply is limited. The fundamentals are still healthy, and the spot coal price is strongly supported, but the futures price is still suppressed by the finished products and the pressure of warehouse receipts is large. It is expected that the coking coal price will oscillate [13] Glass - The supply is expected to be disrupted. The inventory of middle and downstream enterprises is moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] Soda Ash - The cost of the soda ash industry has increased, providing obvious bottom support. However, the surplus supply - demand pattern always suppresses price increases. Recently, the further weakening of glass prices has dragged down the expected price of soda ash. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the surplus supply pattern will intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [14] Ferromanganese - Silicon - The price of ferromanganese - silicon is supported by cost in the short term, but the market supply - demand is loose, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases. It is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [17] Ferrosilicon - The short - term cost trend strongly supports the price of ferrosilicon, but the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [18]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-11-18 股债跷跷板⾏情 股指期货：时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。 股指期权：备兑防御为主。 国债期货：资⾦⾯扰动或有限。 股指期货方面，时间换空间，哑铃配置过渡。周一权益市场窄幅震荡 为主，主要指数收绿居多，其中全A指数跌0.15%，风格层面，哑铃结构占 优，配置属性偏向防御化特征。同时量能在2万亿之下，事件空窗期资金 进攻意愿降低。近期外部纷争对市场情绪产生一定压制，但中性基准判断 不会出现地区冲突，故扰动偏短期。同时，我们认为短期走出震荡的可能 性也偏低，其一，纳斯达克ETF出现高溢价，而这一状态多数出现在A股偏 好回调的周期中，其二，12月重要会议时点尚远，暂不支持政策炒作的基 础。故持有哑铃结构度过过渡期，以时间换空间，静态春躁行情启动。 股指期权方面，备兑防御为主。昨日权益指数震荡走弱，沪指单日收 跌0.46%。期权方面，各个品种成交额小幅回升7.78%，但依旧位于10月以 来流动性的较低位置。期权情绪指标走势偏弱，尤其以50、300等大盘相 关品种的降幅较深，期权交易情绪伴随风格切换。期权隐含波动率平均下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues to trade sideways, with olefins showing weakness and aromatics presenting a slightly stronger pattern. [4] - The current oversupply situation in the crude oil market persists, but geopolitical factors and the strength of crack spreads provide some support. Oil prices are expected to trade sideways in the short term. [8] - The price of asphalt futures is expected to trade weakly due to factors such as the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks. [9] - The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to trade weakly, influenced by factors like the potential increase in production by OPEC+ and changes in supply and demand. [9][11] - Methanol prices are expected to trade sideways with a downward bias due to high inventory levels and a supply - demand imbalance. [26] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to trade within a low - level range due to the impact of new production capacity and increasing inventory. [18][21] - The prices of other chemical products such as PX, PTA, and short - fiber are also expected to trade sideways, with their trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment. [12][13][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The price of crude oil continues to trade sideways due to the interaction between the signs of the resumption of operations at a key Russian port and extensive geopolitical risks. The price of methanol and ethylene glycol has seen an unexpected increase in inventory. [2][3] 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Market News**: There are uncertainties regarding risks related to Russia and Venezuela. The resumption of oil shipments from Kazakhstan at the Novorossiysk port has been reported, and Trump may talk to Maduro. [8] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical factors, the relief of refined oil inventory pressure, and the strength of crack spreads provide short - term support for crude oil demand. However, the current oversupply situation and the continuous increase in inventory are difficult to change, leading to sideways price movement. [8] - **Outlook**: In the short term, the supply pressure persists, the crack spread points to an optimistic outlook for refinery operations, and geopolitical concerns remain, resulting in short - term sideways trading. [8] Asphalt - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main asphalt futures closed at 3037 yuan/ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3290 yuan/ton, 3450 yuan/ton, and 3020 yuan/ton respectively. [8] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December, the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, and the possible resumption of Russia - Ukraine talks, as well as the cooling of the US - Venezuela situation, the asphalt futures price is trading below the 3200 - yuan pressure level. The supply - demand imbalance and high inventory pressure remain. [9] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the number of warehouse receipts increases. [9] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 2622 yuan/ton. [9] - **Main Logic**: With the potential increase in production by OPEC+ in December and the end of the Israel - Palestine conflict, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific region may decline due to the reduction in Russian exports. However, the demand for fuel oil remains weak. [9] - **Outlook**: Geopolitical factors may cause short - term price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine situation. [9] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On November 17, 2025, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3240 yuan/ton. [11] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the movement of crude oil prices. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur fuel substitution, but its current valuation is low. [11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to follow the movement of crude oil prices, with limited substitution demand space. [11] Methanol - **Market News**: On November 17, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2005 yuan/ton, and the port inventory continued to increase. [26] - **Main Logic**: The domestic methanol supply is abundant, and the import of goods has an impact on the market. The high inventory level suppresses the price, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. [26] - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is expected to trade within a narrow low - level range, waiting for overseas market information. [26] Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On November 17, the domestic ethylene glycol market was adjusted sideways, and the inventory continued to increase. [18] - **Main Logic**: New production capacity has an impact on the market, and although some coal - based plants are under maintenance, the new plants are gradually coming into operation, resulting in high inventory pressure. [18][21] - **Outlook**: In the long term, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to trade within a low - level range. [21] Other Chemical Products - **PX**: The supply of xylene is sufficient, and the impact of blending for gasoline on PX is limited in the short term. The load of PX remains stable. [12] - **PTA**: The emotional impact has ended, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of plant changes. [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The fundamentals are weak, and the price of polyester staple fiber is expected to continue to adjust weakly. [22] - **Bottle Chip**: The trading atmosphere has declined, and it is passively following the cost. [24] - **Propylene**: The downstream trading volume has increased, and the price of PL is expected to trade sideways. [28] - **PP**: The short - term driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to the changes in maintenance. [28] - **Plastic**: The upcoming cold snap next week may boost the raw material support, and the price of plastic is expected to trade sideways. [27] - **Styrene**: The narrative of blending for gasoline has an impact, and short - sellers have reduced their positions. [17] - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is expected to trade sideways. [31] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot pressure remains high, and the futures price is expected to be cautious and weak. [32] 3.3 Data Monitoring 3.3.1 Inter - Period Spread - The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, PX, PTA, and MEG are presented, showing different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 2. [34] 3.3.2 Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The basis and warehouse receipts of different varieties are provided. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 12 with a change of 15, and the number of warehouse receipts is 30110. [35] 3.3.3 Inter - Variety Spread - The inter - variety spreads such as 1 - month PP - 3MA and 1 - month TA - EG are given, along with their changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is 380 with a change of 71. [37] 3.4 Index Performance - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of the commodity are presented. For example, the comprehensive index is 2254.19 with a change of - 0.24%, and the energy index on November 17, 2025, has a daily increase of 0.11%. [278][279]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 17th, equity index futures declined while CGB futures rose; lithium carbonate hit the daily limit up, with precious metals leading the decline [2][9][12]. - For lithium carbonate, the market remains tight in Nov - Dec; potential easing in Dec if Jianxiawo resumes production soon. Long - term demand is positive, and a bullish bias is recommended with buying on dips after corrections [18][19]. - For gold, short - term price is expected to consolidate within a range due to Fed's uncertainty. Long - term, gold price center is expected to shift upward as it hedges against dollar credit risks [25][26][27]. - For silver, short - term price is projected to consolidate within a range, supported by tight overseas spot supply. Long - term, it benefits from dollar credit contraction and global economic recovery [34][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - Financial futures: IH and IF fell approximately 1%, while TL gained 0.3% [9][12]. - Commodity futures: Top three gainers were lithium carbonate (9.0% rise, 8.9% position increase m - o - m), SCFIS(Europe) (6.7% rise, 2.2% position increase m - o - m), and iron ore (1.8% rise, 0.2% position increase m - o - m). Top three decliners were silver (4.1% drop, 1.1% position decrease m - o - m), gold (3.1% drop, 10.5% position decrease m - o - m), and polysilicon (2.9% drop, 6.2% position decrease m - o - m) [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - Lithium Carbonate: Rose 9.0% to 95,200 yuan/ton on Nov 17th. Supply is restricted by ore shortage, demand is currently robust, and social inventories are destocking. A bullish bias is recommended with buying on dips [16][17][19]. 3.1.3 Daily Drop - Gold: Fell 3.1% to 929.46 yuan/gram on Nov 17th. Short - term price may consolidate due to Fed's uncertainty, while long - term price center is expected to rise [24][25][27]. - Silver: Fell 4.1% to 11,933 yuan/kilogram on Nov 17th. Short - term price is expected to consolidate with support from tight overseas supply, and long - term it benefits from economic recovery [33][34][35]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - The 22nd issue of Qiushi Journal on November 16 published an important article by Xi Jinping titled "Develop New Quality Productive Forces According to Local Conditions" [39]. - China's Foreign Ministry stated that Premier Li Qiang has no arrangements to meet with Japanese leaders during the G20 summit [39]. 3.2.2 Industry News - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing emphasized efforts to make the capital market more resilient, with more inclusive systems, higher - quality listed companies, more effective regulation, and deeper opening - up [40].