1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, the influence of a weak US dollar and supply concerns dominates. Despite the current weak consumption and relatively loose supply - demand situation, there are opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, and tin. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin persist. Thus, the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **View**: The weakening US dollar index leads to a strong upward movement of copper prices, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [6]. - **Analysis**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee Benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce copper ore production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November 2025, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. As of December 22, copper inventory rose to 168,400 tons. On December 24, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [6][7]. - **Logic**: The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. However, supply disruptions increase, and demand is weak during the off - season, which limits the upward space of copper prices [8]. 3.2 Alumina - **View**: The cost support is weak, and the alumina price remains under pressure, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [8]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the spot price of alumina decreased in most regions, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased by 302 tons [8][10]. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient. The prices of raw materials are weak, and the cost support is limited. There is pressure on the price from the perspective of warehouse receipt digestion [9]. 3.3 Aluminum - **View**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the aluminum price will rise oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [12]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased. As of December 22, aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories changed. In November 2025, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased year - on - year. South32 increased the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums for Japan in Q1 2026 [12]. - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and attention should be paid to future demand [13]. 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The cost support continues, and the price will rebound oscillatory, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [14]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy increased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 1 ton. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply may decrease due to policies, and the demand may weaken marginally at the end of the year [14]. 3.5 Zinc - **View**: The inventory trends at home and abroad diverge, and the zinc price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [17]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the spot price differentials of zinc in different regions varied. As of December 23, zinc ingot inventory increased. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates increased [17]. - **Logic**: The macro - expectation is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, the zinc price may oscillate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a possibility of decline [18]. 3.6 Lead - **View**: The lead price rebounds with non - ferrous metals, and the supply - demand situation may weaken, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [19]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries and lead ingots changed. As of December 22, lead ingot inventory decreased, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 152 tons. The implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles has affected battery consumption [19]. - **Logic**: The spot premium decreases slightly, the supply may increase after maintenance, and the demand is weakening marginally [19][20]. 3.7 Nickel - **View**: The expectation of Indonesian policies causes disturbances, and the nickel price continues to rise, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [20]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB in 2026 to 250 million tons, a significant decrease from this year [22][23]. - **Logic**: The domestic nickel supply decreases marginally, but the overall supply pressure remains. The demand is in the off - season. If the Indonesian policy is implemented, the surplus expectation will decline [24]. 3.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The rebound of the nickel price drives up the stainless - steel price, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory [25]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased by 125 tons. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to reduce the nickel ore production target in 2026 [25]. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Production is expected to decline in December, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [26][27]. 3.9 Tin - **View**: The rigid demand maintains resilience, and the tin price oscillates at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being oscillatory and bullish [27]. - **Analysis**: On December 24, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin decreased [27]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is a core concern. The supply is restricted in many regions. The demand is expected to increase due to the economic situation and industry development [28].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall commodity market shows a mixed trend, with different agricultural products having their own price movements and influencing factors. For example, natural rubber prices rose due to strong commodity sentiment, but face potential pressure from hedging; while soybean - related products are affected by factors such as South American harvest expectations and domestic inventory levels [1][5]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 (1)油脂 - **观点**: Yesterday, rapeseed oil was relatively strong. Pay attention to the changes in domestic and international oil production and demand expectations. - **Logic**: Concerns about US soybean exports and expectations of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest led to a bearish trend in US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed oil relatively strong. The macro - environment includes a strong US Q3 GDP and a weakening US dollar, and rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical concerns. From the industrial side, South American soybean harvest expectations are strong, US soybean demand is uncertain, domestic soybean inventories are high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction period in December, and the probability of inventory reduction in the origin is high. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to fluctuate. The oil market is facing a game of multiple factors and may continue to fluctuate in the near future [5]. (2)蛋白粕 - **观点**: Inventory pressure persists, and the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) prices fluctuate at a low level. - **Logic**: Internationally, the US soybean market is closed during the Christmas period. US soybean crushing volume decreased in November, and exports to China grew slowly. South American soybeans have a good production outlook. Domestically, spot and basis are stable, soybean and soybean meal inventories are slowly decreasing seasonally, downstream aquaculture is in a loss, and consumption is not strong during the peak season. The purchase volume of imported soybeans in Q4 2025 decreased year - on - year, while that in Q1 2026 increased year - on - year. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate [6]. (3)玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Snowy weather has a phased impact on the supply in the production area. - **Logic**: In the upstream, snow in the Northeast has slowed down the grain - selling process, and in the North China region, the purchase of local corn has increased. In the downstream, feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises have different inventory and procurement strategies. The market is in a tight - balance state, with prices having both upward and downward pressures, and is expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as old wheat auctions, grain - selling progress, and downstream profits [8][9]. (4)生猪 - **观点**: The increase in secondary fattening in some areas has led to a stop in the decline of pig prices and a rebound. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, the short - term supply of large pigs is increasing, the medium - term supply of commercial pigs is expected to be excessive until April 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. In terms of demand, the demand during the Winter Solstice has increased. In terms of inventory, the average weight of pigs has increased. In the short - term, the increase in consumption has driven the rebound of pig prices, but high - weight pigs may limit the price increase. In the medium - term, the supply - demand situation is generally loose, and in the long - term, the supply pressure is expected to gradually weaken. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate weakly. The near - term prices are expected to be weak, while the far - term prices are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. Pay attention to reverse - spread strategy opportunities [10]. (5)天然橡胶 - **观点**: Strong commodity sentiment has driven up rubber prices. - **Logic**: Natural rubber prices rose strongly yesterday, mainly due to macro - level driving. Although it slightly broke through the shock range, there may still be large hedging pressure above. The current fundamentals lack strong driving forces. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices support the market to some extent, but there is still a risk of decline. The demand side is weak. If there is no continuous capital inflow, rubber prices are likely to return to the range - bound market. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and rubber prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with no obvious trend - based single - side market [12]. (6)合成橡胶 - **观点**: The market rebounded after a decline. - **Logic**: The BR contract recovered all the previous day's losses and rose slightly. It is favored by funds due to the marginal improvement of butadiene fundamentals and the relatively low absolute price of the BR contract. The butadiene market price fluctuated upward last week, but there was resistance to high - price transactions later. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is still short - term upward pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - term [14]. (7)棉花 - **观点**: The rebound continues. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices are expected to rise, mainly due to the possible tight - balance situation in the new year and potential positive policies. Currently, commercial inventories are accumulating during the peak cotton - listing period. The planting policy is expected to tighten next year, which may lead to a decrease in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Maintain the strategy of buying on dips [14]. (8)白糖 - **观点**: Short - sellers taking profits have driven up sugar prices. - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract rebounded from the low level. Short - sellers taking profits was the main reason for the sharp rise. In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is still at a high level, and the new - season production in the Northern Hemisphere shows different trends. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply in the new season. In the domestic market, the supply of sugar will increase marginally. - **Outlook**: In the long - and medium - term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, as the new - season global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus [16]. (9)纸浆 - **观点**: The warming atmosphere in the commodity market has led to a fluctuating and rising trend in pulp futures. - **Logic**: The pulp futures fluctuated at a high level yesterday. The fundamental factors include both positive and negative aspects. The positive factors are more likely to be realized in the short - term, and the negative factors are mainly related to the transmission of high prices in the long - term. Overall, the positive factors in the pulp market are more, which will push up the bottom of the futures price. - **Outlook**: Fluctuate strongly. Positive news will lift the bottom, but the hedging pressure above still exists [17]. (10)双胶纸 - **观点**: Fluctuate. - **Logic**: The spot price of double - offset paper is stable. Some paper mills have announced price - increase plans for January 2026, which slightly boosts market confidence. However, the supply - surplus situation is difficult to change, and the market expectation is cautious. The supply pressure still exists, downstream demand is weak, and the supply - demand is in a weak - balance state. - **Outlook**: The weak supply - demand pattern is expected to continue, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. Pay attention to whether paper mills will shut down production [18]. (11)原木 - **观点**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and logs are expected to fluctuate within a range. - **Logic**: The current contradiction in the log market lies in the realization process of weak reality and strong expectation. The short - term supply pressure is gradually relieved, and the futures price of the 03 contract has a certain support level. In the medium - term, the arrival pressure is expected to be relieved, and there are game points in the 03 contract. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and the supply pressure is relieved. Pay attention to reverse - spread or low - buying opportunities in the far - month contracts [20]. 2.品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as "油脂油料", "蛋⽩粕", etc., but no specific data monitoring content is provided. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**: - The special index shows that the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. - **板块指数**: - The agricultural product index on December 24, 2025, increased by 0.31% today, with a 0.63% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.86% change in the past month, and a - 3.52% change since the beginning of the year [178][180].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". For specific varieties, the outlook for steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, glass, soda ash, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon is "oscillation", while the outlook for coking coal is "oscillation with a slight upward trend" [5][7][8][10][12][13][15][17] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the fundamentals of the black building materials industry have limited highlights. However, the policy tone remains positive, and there are still expectations for winter storage and restocking. The futures market is expected to have room for a rebound from low levels, but the upside space is limited. The overall market presents an oscillatory pattern [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Situation of the Black Building Materials Industry - Steel is in the off - season with weak supply and demand. Although there is a slight improvement in demand and inventory is decreasing, the inventory level is still high year - on - year, and the upside space for the futures market is limited. Iron ore has a strong support at the bottom of the futures market due to the expectation of steel mill复产 and winter storage, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Coal and coke are in a state of low - level valuation repair. Coke's supply - demand structure may tighten, and coking coal's fundamentals will continue to improve marginally [1][2] 2. Sub - sectors Analysis Iron Element - Iron ore: The demand support from molten iron is weakening, the port inventory is accumulating, and steel mills have not started restocking. The upstream - downstream game is intense, and the short - term ore price is expected to oscillate. Scrap steel: Supply is decreasing while demand is stable. Steel mills' inventory is relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises still provides support. The spot price is expected to oscillate [2] Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side has shown signs of stabilization. With the expected steel mill复产 in January and the start of winter storage and restocking in the middle and lower reaches, the supply - demand structure may tighten, and the futures market is expected to oscillate following coking coal. Coking coal: As the year - end approaches, the intensity of winter storage increases, and the import pressure will ease in January. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, and the futures valuation still has room for repair [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of the manganese silicon market remains loose, and the upstream inventory pressure is large. The upside space for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost valuation in the medium term. Ferrosilicon: The upstream supply pressure has eased, but the market has weak supply and demand in the off - season. The upside space for the futures price should not be overly optimistic, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash: The overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply surplus pattern will further intensify in the long term, with the price center continuing to decline [3] 3. Index Information - On December 24, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures' commodity index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial product index all increased, with increases of 1.08%, 1.01%, and 1.10% respectively. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.22% on that day, 0.35% in the past 5 days, 0.04% in the past month, and decreased by 6.04% since the beginning of the year [104][106]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In 2026, the RMB exchange rate may show a stable and appreciating trend, with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 and limited depreciation space. Attention should be paid to its appreciation opportunities [2]. - The direction and rhythm of the RMB exchange rate in 2026 may depend on three factors: the central bank's regulation intensity of the central parity rate, the directional performance of the external US dollar index and the performance of the domestic equity market, and whether exports can continue to perform well [2]. 3. Summary by Related Information Recent Tracking - Recently, the offshore RMB exchange rate has performed stronger than the on - shore one, reflecting the weakening of the overseas US dollar and the increasing attractiveness of domestic asset returns, which has led to continuous inflows of foreign capital [2]. - Since the second half of the year, the market's willingness to settle foreign exchange has increased, and the year - end seasonal peak of foreign exchange settlement has provided a favorable environment for the RMB exchange rate [2][8]. - Recently, the central bank has continuously guided the central parity rate in the depreciation direction, with an adjustment range of about 180 basis points in the past week [2]. Exchange Rate Data - From November 2025, the offshore exchange rate has gradually become stronger than the on - shore exchange rate [6]. - The table shows the exchange rate data from December 18 - 24, 2025, including the Chinese representative rate, the estimated mean, and the spread [5]. Central Bank Policy - The central bank has increased the intensity of adjusting the central parity rate in the depreciation direction [11].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-24 联储降息预期回摆，⾦银新⾼后"V 型"震荡 地缘政治⻛险加剧、美元⾛软、央⾏持续购⾦及明年美国利率下调预期的 共振下，⻩⾦、⽩银价格均续创历史新⾼。⽽美国第三季度GDP数据超预 期影响下降息预期回摆，美元有所冲⾼，⾦银价格⾃新⾼回落。⻩⾦价格 下⾏空间或有限，地缘紧张局势升级、央⾏购⾦及联储降息预期的影响持 续存在。⽩银⽅⾯，近期⼀些⾼位获利可能引发短期整合，短线波动或放 ⼤，但整体趋势仍然是积极的。 重点资讯： 1） 美国10月耐用品订单月率为-2.2%，不及预期的-1.5%和前值0. 7%；其中扣除国防的耐用品订单月率为-1.5%，前值0.1%；扣除运输 的耐用品订单月率为0.2%，不及预期0.3%和前值0.7%。 2） 美国11月工业产出月率为0.2%，预期、前值均为0.1%；11月制 造业产出月率为0%，预期0.1%，前值0%。11月产能利用率为76%，预 期、前值均为75.9%。 3） 美国第三季度GDP季率、个人消费支出季率、以及GDP价格指 数初值均超出预期和前值。其中，第三季度实际GDP年化季率 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-24 股市热点退潮，债市预期回暖 国债期货方面，昨日主力合约全线上涨，债市情绪整体回暖，且长短 端品种均走强，主要与宽货币预期、政府债供给预期有关。一方面，近期 资金面持续偏松，而基本面数据有所走弱，市场对明年年初央行降准降息 的预期有所升温；另一方面，午后，市场或预期明年国债发行期限可能更 偏均衡，叠加股市冲高回落，长端国债期货涨势扩大。受上述因素影响， 债市多头情绪升温，期货端多头增仓动力整体较强，T、TF主力合约单日 持仓量增加超1万手，且期货表现好于现券，主力合约基差有所回落。后 续来看，短期内资金面相对宽松，继续利好短端；而长端在宽货币预期以 及供给预期等影响下可能偏震荡。 风险因子：1）增量资金不足；2）期权流动性超预期；3）供给加速 超预期；4）货币宽松不及预期；5）政策超预期。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 股指期货：前期热点出现退潮 股指期权：隐含波动率仍处于下⾏通道 国债期货：宽货币及供给预期影响下，债市情绪全⾯回暖 股指期货方面，周二沪指在3900点上方震荡收平，量能维持在1.9万 亿元，热点出现退潮切换 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the report's industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - The overseas macro - environment in 2026 continues to warm up. The combination of "low inflation + weak reality + Fed chair change" in the US is conducive to Fed easing, and the quality of January's economic data is expected to return to normal. The US's "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy promotes economic prosperity. The ECB maintained interest rates in December and raised GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was in line with expectations, not a radical tightening, with an upward - adjusted 2025 GDP growth forecast and a maintained 2026 forecast [7] - In the domestic macro - environment, the National Housing and Urban - Rural Construction Work Conference in December 2023 deployed work for 2026, including urban renewal and stabilizing the real estate market. The underground pipeline renovation work is a highlight, and it is expected that the capital investment will increase slightly next year. In November, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales was 1.3%, falling short of expectations, with weakening commodity retail being the main drag and continuous improvement in service consumption. Manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment continued to weaken, while exports were a strong support [7] - In asset allocation, the macro - environment favors the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors. For precious metals, the logic of gold's rise is still clear with a high safety margin, while silver has increased volatility risk after a sharp rise. For non - ferrous metals, there are low - buying and long - holding opportunities for commodities with more supply disruptions like copper, aluminum, and tin, and attention should be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. The domestic equity sector should be defensive at the end of the year and during the policy window period [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Price and Fluctuation - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Futures was at 3025.6, up 0.24%; the CSI 500 Futures was at 7133.2, up 0.14%; the CSI 1000 Futures was at 7197.4, down 0.09% [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures was at 102.526, up 0.06%; the 5 - year was at 106.025, up 0.16%; the 10 - year was at 108.22, up 0.22%; the 30 - year was at 112.83, [increase data seems incorrect in the text] [3] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index was at 98.2603, unchanged; the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate was at 1.1762; the US Dollar - Japanese Yen exchange rate was at 157.028 [3] - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was at 1.33, unchanged; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was at 1.84, down 0.6 bp; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was at 4.17, up 1 bp [3] - **Hot Industries**: Construction, steel, non - ferrous metals, and other industries showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the construction industry was at 3694, up 1.38% daily, 1.54% weekly, 1.05% monthly, 8.75% quarterly, and 7.37% year - to - date [3] - **Overseas Commodities**: NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 57.95, up 2.49% daily; COMEX gold was at 4480.6, up 2.56% daily [3] - **Domestic Commodities**: The container shipping route to Europe was at 1806.6, down 3.48% daily; domestic gold was at 1014.24, up 1.34% daily [4] 3.2 Market Analysis by Sector 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [8] - **Stock Index Options**: Use options for hedging to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the liquidity of the options market [8] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The sentiment of long - term bonds is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by the expected liquidity easing and the tight supply of silver in the spot market. The short - term judgment is a volatile increase, and the focus is on the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [8] 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term; in the long - term, the focus is on the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the focus is on the 2026 shipping company's flight resumption plan, year - end long - term contract signing freight rates, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Various products like steel, iron ore, coke, etc., are in a volatile state. For example, steel inventories continue to decline, and the short - term judgment is a volatile trend, with the focus on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron water production [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector - Products such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., show different market trends. For example, copper prices are in a high - level volatile state, and the short - term judgment is a volatile increase, with the focus on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, etc [8] 3.2.6 Energy Chemical Sector - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and are in a volatile state. Chemical products have different trends, such as PX showing a volatile upward trend, and the focus is on factors like crude oil price fluctuations and macro - level changes [10] 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Products such as grains, oils, and livestock show different trends. For example, the price of live pigs is under pressure in the short - term, and the short - term judgment is a volatile decline, with the focus on factors like breeding sentiment and policies [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On December 23, equity index and CGB futures increased, and most commodities rallied, with platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate leading the gains. China's financial futures showed IH rising by 0.2%, IM falling by 0.2%, and TL rising by 0.9%. In commodity futures, platinum, lithium carbonate, and palladium were the top gainers, while ethylene glycol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and log were the top decliners [10][11][12]. - The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is robust. In the short term, downside risks are limited, and prices are expected to be range - bound with an upward bias. The Indonesian government's nickel ore policy adjustments have triggered market expectations of tight global nickel supply in 2026, which is expected to support nickel prices. Gold prices are well - underpinned by rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in 2026, increased geopolitical uncertainties, and approaching holidays [17][23][28]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On December 23, equity index futures and CGB futures edged higher, and most commodities rallied. Platinum, palladium, and lithium carbonate led the gains. In financial futures, IH rose by 0.2%, IM fell by 0.2%, and TL rose by 0.9%. In commodity futures, the top - three gaining commodities were platinum, lithium carbonate, and palladium, while the top - three declining commodities were ethylene glycol, LPG, and log [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Lithium Carbonate**: On December 23, it rose 5.7% to 120360 yuan per ton. The market is focused on the resumption timeline of production at "Jianxiawo" and off - season demand. Currently, the delayed production resumption expectation is a major positive driver, and there is a divergence in market views on January demand. In the short term, prices are expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [16][17][18]. - **Nickel**: On December 23, it rose 3.9% to 123440 yuan per ton. The Indonesian government's three major nickel ore policy adjustments have triggered market expectations of tight global nickel supply in 2026, and cost - side increases are expected to support price increases [21][22][23]. - **Gold**: On December 23, it rose 2.7% to 1014.24 yuan per gram. Spot gold surged above $4400 per ounce for the first time in history. Rising market expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in 2026, increased geopolitical uncertainties, and approaching holidays support gold prices [27][28][29]. 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - Xi Jinping issued important instructions on the work of central state - owned enterprises, emphasizing their backbone and pillar role in the national economy since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [32][35]. - Li Qiang pointed out that central SOEs should provide strong support for major infrastructure construction, accelerate the upgrading and digital - intelligent transformation of traditional infrastructure, and carry out new infrastructure construction in a moderately proactive way. He also emphasized formulating major projects and carriers to drive overall development [33][34][35]. 3.2.2 Industry News - As of December 8, the client equity of futures companies exceeded 2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of over 30% compared with the end of 2024, and medium - and long - term capital inflows optimized the investor structure [36].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-24 马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 油脂：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 蛋白粕：美豆交投清淡，双粕窄幅震荡 玉米/淀粉：购销清淡，价格窄幅震荡 生猪：供需均增，猪价宽幅震荡 天然橡胶：维持窄幅震荡 合成橡胶：盘面走势延续偏强 棉花：仓单低叠加政策预期，棉价延续走强 白糖：糖价震荡反弹，压力仍存 纸浆：近期高位区间波动，期货走势资金主导 双胶纸：震荡运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木区间震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 油脂观点：马棕产需预期改善，昨日棕油相对偏强 逻辑：因原油上涨、美元走弱及对农产品的买盘，周一美豆类上涨，昨日 国内油脂表现分化，棕油相对偏强。从宏观环境看，因日本官员暗示已准 备必要时干预市场，周一日元兑美元走强；因对地缘局势紧张冲击供应的 担忧，周一原油价格上涨。从产业端看，南美豆丰产预期持续，巴西大豆 种植临近尾声，阿根廷大豆种植正常推进。CONAB数据显示，截至12月 20日巴西大豆种植进度为97.6%，去年同期97.8%，五年均值94.9%。而美 豆 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for specific commodities, some are rated as "Potential" (关注), including platinum, palladium, zinc, and natural gas [4]. Core Viewpoints - In the forex market, with a persistently weak labor market, the overall monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. In 2026, the USD is expected to range between 95 - 102, and the RMB may show a stable upward trend, with a range of 6.8 - 7.2, indicating limited depreciation space and opportunities for appreciation [6]. - For various commodities, different trading strategies are recommended based on their price spreads and market conditions. For example, long NYMEX and short GFEX for platinum and palladium; long SHFE and short LME for zinc; and long NYMEX and short ICE for natural gas [4][5]. Summary by Directory Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets fluctuated, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread also fluctuated. This week, with the gold price oscillating upward and the spread valuation neutral, there is no short - term driving force, so it is recommended to hold and wait [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the silver price spread between domestic and foreign markets fell and then rebounded, and the overseas COMEX - LBMA spread fluctuated and declined. This week, the short - squeeze trading in silver has eased, the risk of price fluctuations at high levels has increased, and there is no driving force for the spread, so it is recommended to hold and wait [18]. - **Platinum**: This week, the domestic price has risen significantly more than the overseas price, widening the spread above the import cost. Due to hedging quota limits, the short - term spread may remain high. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX platinum and short on GFEX platinum [28]. - **Palladium**: Last week, the domestic palladium price rose significantly more than the overseas price, and the domestic premium continued to expand. Due to hedging quota limits, the short - term spread may remain high. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX palladium and short on GFEX palladium [30]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: In the context of the off - season for demand, domestic copper inventories are still accumulating, and the copper import window remains in a loss state. The cross - market strategy is recommended to be observed for the time being [36]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic aluminum ingots have shifted to a cumulative approach, while LME aluminum inventories continue to decline. In the short term, the foreign - exchange ratio remains in a range - bound fluctuation, and cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [41]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, priced - locked zinc ingots will keep arriving, and zinc concentrate imports need time to rise notably, so domestic zinc ingot stocks still have room to fall, while LME zinc inventory is slowly climbing. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [50]. - **Lead**: Primary and recycled lead smelters will restart soon. Consumers were cautious about new e - bike standards early on, and year - end closures for inventory checks may lift domestic and LME lead stocks. Cross - market arbitrage for lead is temporarily on hold [56]. - **Nickel**: The import window is currently closed, with fluctuations within a numerical range, and the situation of extreme price differences has significantly improved, so cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [57]. - **Tin**: The ratio between domestic and foreign tin prices fluctuated, while the spot tin import window remains closed. The import loss stands at RMB 13,213 per ton, and the driving force behind the tin price spread is not obvious, so cross - market arbitrage is temporarily on hold [61]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price spread remained in a narrow range with no significant drivers, experiencing slight fluctuations. It is recommended to hold and wait [65]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The SC - Brent spread has been oscillating. With the Middle - East crude oil spot stabilizing, freight rates remaining highly volatile, and the uncertainty of Russian crude oil supply still existing, it is recommended to hold and wait [69]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: The price spread rebounded slightly. After the cold - wave trading ended, the temperature in January is expected to be warmer, and the price has corrected. With import - cost support, European gas prices have stopped falling. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX and short on ICE. After a deep correction, the off - season contracts in the US market are approaching the marginal block cost, with limited further downward space. There is an expectation of cooling in north - western Europe in the coming week, providing short - term price support. However, the pace of exiting Russia has slowed down, weakening supply - side risks. The far - month LNG surplus pressure still exists, and as the US price enters a low position, the long - term contract profit space has opened up, and a rebound in US gas may bring an opportunity for the spread to narrow [102]. Agriculturals - **Soybean**: The profit levels have been fluctuating at the bottom. Due to the relatively slow progress of Chinese purchases, US soybeans have shown a weak downward trend, which has facilitated the further recovery of profit levels. It is recommended to hold and wait in the short term [75]. - **Sugar**: The import crushing margins edged higher, and it is expected that in the medium to long term, the Chinese market likely outperforms ICE. With the marginal decrease in imports approaching the end of the year, the driving force for the convergence of the domestic - foreign spread is weak. It is recommended to hold and wait in the short term [78]. - **Natural Rubber**: There were no major changes last week, and the spread remained in the non - arbitrage range globally as it gradually enters the tapping season, with an expected increase in supply but no improvement in demand, showing a weak domestic and foreign market situation. It is recommended to hold and wait [82]. Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: The market has absorbed the impact of the Fed's hawkish stance in December. With the imminent selection of the Fed chair and the renewed strength of gold and silver, the COMEX - LME copper spread may rise. Meanwhile, high expectations of US copper tariffs limit the downside of the spread. It is recommended to hold and wait [88]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: The Brent futures - Dubai swap EFS has been oscillating. With the Middle - East crude oil spot stabilizing, US production remaining resilient but the number of active rigs declining, and both light and medium - heavy crude oils in the production - increasing cycle, it is recommended to hold and wait [93]. - **WTI - Brent**: The WTI - Brent spread has been oscillating. With US refinery operations returning to a high level, the pressure on refined - oil inventories increasing year - on - year, and crude oil production remaining stable for the time being, the driving force for the spread is limited. It is recommended to hold and wait [98]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Similar to the domestic - foreign natural - gas spread analysis, the price spread rebounded slightly. After the cold - wave trading ended, the temperature in January is expected to be warmer, and the price has corrected. With import - cost support, European gas prices have stopped falling. It is recommended to go long on NYMEX and short on ICE. After a deep correction, the off - season contracts in the US market are approaching the marginal block cost, with limited further downward space. There is an expectation of cooling in north - western Europe in the coming week, providing short - term price support. However, the pace of exiting Russia has slowed down, weakening supply - side risks. The far - month LNG surplus pressure still exists, and as the US price enters a low position, the long - term contract profit space has opened up, and a rebound in US gas may bring an opportunity for the spread to narrow [102].