GEM NI: MSKAE3航线仍有差价位于1995-2005美元/FEU, AE1航线1900美元/FEU沿用至2月末。HPL-SPOT价格持平位于2035美元/FEU OCEAN: 29日下午, CMA2月15日后线上运价下调200美元/FEU至2293美元/FEU,报价沿用至2月下旬;达飞对2月下半月运价位于 2293-2493美元/FEU波动,较上半月小幅调降。 【中信期货航运(集运)】地缘情绪紧张06、08合约偏 2026/1/29 强,CMA2月下半月运价调降200美元 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉路 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 近期集运走势偏强,地缘方面,根据我们前期日报和以色列时报报道,在伊朗危机之下,胡塞武装威胁有可能再度对红海航运袭 击,远月的复航预期松动,带动06、08合约偏强,而现货方面据极羽线上报价,MSK本周开舱2月第二周至月底价格 1900美元/FEU环比 跌100美元，开舱价跌幅收窄,而达飞2月下旬线上运价较上半月小幅调 ...

EIA数据显示,美国1月23日当周商业原油库存减少229.5万桶,主要因净进口减少170.6万桶/ 日。同期美国原油产量减少3.6万桶/日,炼厂开工率由93.3%加速回落至90.9%,但仍处同期高位, 原油加工量下降39.5万桶/日,寒潮影响在本期数据的体现较为有限。炼厂开工率下滑后美国汽柴 油累库压力有所放缓,美国原油与石油产品总库存高位小幅回落,单周数据指向有限。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 中信期货 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | | 单位: 万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | -- ...

【中信期货航运(集运)】地缘情绪紧张06、08合约偏 2026/1/29 强,CMA2月下半月运价调降200美元 投资咨询业务资格: サ 工业与周期组 究 证监许可【2012】669号 安婕锐 武嘉路 员 从业资格号:F03100682 从业资格号:F03117373 投资咨询号: Z0021085 投资咨询号: Z0022651 OCEAN: 29日下午, CMA2月15日后线上运价下调200美元/FEU至2293美元/FEU,报价沿用至2月下旬;达飞对2月下半月运价位于 2293-2493美元/FEU波动,较上半月小幅调降。 MSC&PA:线上报价维持2235-2340美元/FEU 地缘方面，据央视新闻报道、特朗普对伊朗再发威胁,而据新华网报道、伊朗方面称一旦美方采取任何军事行动,伊朗将立即反 击,打击以色列核心区域。 交易逻辑:地缘情绪叠加欧洲近期冬季强降雪或有可能影响返程船期，带动盘面情绪偏强；近月方面，淡季运价下跌仍有压制, GMA2月下半月再降200美元/FEU证实节前降价揽货的弱现实、而地缘如进一步恶化,或对06及远月合约形成进一步中枢抬升逻辑。后续 关注如地缘维持紧张,06合约或仍跟随波动。2 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The report is optimistic about copper prices, suggesting investors continue to focus on long positions in copper, supported by both macro and supply - demand expectations [5]. Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - Copper prices have reached new historical highs, with LME copper breaking through $14,000 per ton and SHFE copper approaching 1110 yuan per ton. The expected decline in copper production by Southern Copper Corporation in 2020 and the drop in the US dollar index to a 2022 - low of 96 have contributed to the rise in copper prices. Copper has a short - term demand for a price increase due to its good fundamentals [2][3]. Fundamental Situation - The supply of copper ore is increasingly tight. The strike at Mantoverde mine and the expected decline in production by Southern Copper Corporation have intensified the supply shortage. The spot price of 25% copper concentrate on January 28 was $10 - 50.2 per dry ton, a decrease of $8.4 per ton compared to the previous period. The long - term processing fee for copper smelters in 2020 was at a historical low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating in the off - season, the long - term supply - demand situation is expected to tighten with the approaching peak season after the Spring Festival [4]. Summary and Strategy - The weakening US dollar index will significantly boost copper prices. The deepening of the tight copper ore supply logic and the low long - term processing fee increase the risk of smelter production cuts, strengthening the expectation of a slowdown in refined copper supply growth. Overall, the report is optimistic about copper prices [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - EIA data shows that in the week of January 23, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, mainly due to a 1.706 million barrels per day decrease in net imports. US crude oil production decreased by 36,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate dropped from 93.3% to 90.9%, but remained at a high level for the same period. The crude oil processing volume decreased by 395,000 barrels per day. The impact of the cold wave on this period's data was relatively limited. After the decline in the refinery utilization rate, the pressure on gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation in the US slowed down, and the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products in the US decreased slightly from a high level. However, the single - week data has limited indication [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Data Table Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: decreased by 2.295 million barrels, compared with an increase of 3.602 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: decreased by 278,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 1.478 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 515,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 806,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline inventory change: increased by 223,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 5.977 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US diesel inventory change: decreased by 329,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 3.348 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 696,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 788,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 616,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 585,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): decreased by 6.781 million barrels, compared with an increase of 7.538 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.696 million barrels per day, compared with 13.732 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.675 million barrels per day, compared with 20.172 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 8.757 million barrels per day, compared with 7.834 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US diesel apparent demand: 4.069 million barrels per day, compared with 3.524 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil import: 5.642 million barrels per day, compared with 6.447 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil export: 4.589 million barrels per day, compared with 3.688 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.209 million barrels per day, compared with 16.604 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery utilization rate: 90.9%, compared with 93.3% in the previous period [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The relationship between the US and Iran may undergo significant changes, leading to high volatility in crude oil prices in the near term. The outcome of US - Iran peace talks or a breakdown will be the key factor influencing the short - term trend of the crude oil market. The chemical industry chain as a whole continues to oscillate. The market should approach the oil price and the chemical industry with an oscillatory mindset, as the crude oil still faces potential geopolitical risks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure remains, and geopolitics dominates the rhythm. The market is in supply surplus, and short - term trends are influenced by the Iranian situation. Outlook is oscillatory [1][7]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical premium and spot price increases have led to a significant strengthening of asphalt futures prices. The absolute price is overvalued, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. Outlook is oscillatory [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premium supports high - sulfur fuel oil. Venezuelan production growth may put long - term pressure on it. Outlook is oscillatory [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows crude oil and oscillates strongly. It faces some negative factors but has a low valuation. Outlook is oscillatory [11]. - **Methanol**: There is a long - short game in coastal areas, and it oscillates within a range. The fundamental situation is weak, but there are potential overseas disturbances. Outlook is oscillatory [27][28]. - **Urea**: External markets and export expectations have briefly boosted sentiment. It is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. Outlook is oscillatory [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The driving force is average, and it is more affected by the commodity atmosphere and device disturbances. It is expected to oscillate within the range of [3800 - 4050] yuan/ton. Outlook is oscillatory [20][22]. - **PX**: The near - end fundamentals continue to weaken, and the futures price oscillates and consolidates. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and PXN is expected to remain within the range of 【320, 350】 dollars/ton. Outlook is oscillatory [12][13]. - **PTA**: The fundamentals are weak, and supply and demand are accumulating. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. Outlook is oscillatory [13][14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Spot trading is weak, and the driving force is average. It is expected to oscillate under the influence of commodity sentiment and cost. Outlook is oscillatory [23][24]. - **Bottle Chips**: It follows cost fluctuations, and the support for profit at the lower end is increasing. Outlook is oscillatory [25]. - **Styrene**: Capital behavior and export narratives have led to a recent increase. Seasonal inventory accumulation may lead to a profit contraction, but the impact is expected to be limited. Outlook is oscillatory [19]. - **PL**: Supply is tightening, and it oscillates. PDH maintenance expectations provide some support. Outlook is oscillatory [35]. - **PP**: Raw material and macro factors drive a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Outlook is oscillatory [34]. - **LLDPE**: Raw material and macro factors drive a rebound, but the upward space is limited. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. Outlook is oscillatory [33]. - **PVC**: Low valuation provides support, and it oscillates. Short - term "export - grabbing" and low valuation support the market, but fundamental pressure remains. Outlook is oscillatory [39]. - **Caustic Soda**: The electricity price has been slightly reduced, and the cost is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly before the festival. Outlook is oscillatory [41]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, including the latest values and change values of different inter - period spreads [44]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis, change values of the basis, and warehouse receipts for multiple varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are presented [45]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Information on inter - variety spreads for different months of various combinations, such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., is given, along with the latest values and change values [46]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the content mentions the monitoring of various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc., no specific data or analysis is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, characteristic index (including commodity 20 index, industrial products index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (energy index) are presented, along with their respective values and percentage changes [285][286][287].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a more dovish and marginally less independent Federal Reserve is rising, and the spillover of sovereign debt and currency hedging demand has pushed precious metals to accelerate their upward movement. Gold has broken through key integer levels and risen with increasing volume under the dominance of allocation funds, while silver has followed with amplified elasticity, but trading and volatility risks have also increased, and structural differentiation has become more apparent [1]. - Gold's upward trend continues and hits a new high. The resonance of monetary policy expectations and hedging allocation is formed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the increase in volatility. Silver's high - elasticity rise continues, but the volatility is significantly amplified, and trading - level constraints increase. In the short term, it is more likely to fluctuate and digest [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoint**: The upward trend continues and hits a new high. The resonance of monetary policy expectations and hedging allocation is formed. In the short term, attention should be paid to the increase in volatility [2]. - **Logic**: The market's repricing of looser future monetary policy continues. The dovish expectation around the next Federal Reserve Chairman is rising, which strengthens the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets. At the same time, sovereign debt and currency are under pressure, and geopolitical uncertainties are rising. Funds are flowing to safe - haven assets such as gold, pushing the gold price to break through $5400 per ounce and rise with increasing volume. The allocation and options sides both reflect the willingness to price the upward risk. Gold continues to show the characteristics of low volatility and strong trend among precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, the logic is solid under the resonance of monetary policy expectations, hedging allocation, and de - credit narrative. In the short term, there may be an increase in volatility and profit - taking, but it is still attractive for allocation during the回调 [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: The high - elasticity rise continues, but the volatility is significantly amplified, and trading - level constraints increase. In the short term, it is more likely to fluctuate and digest [2]. - **Logic**: Silver strengthens with the overall precious metals, and the stage increase continues to expand, but the price volatility is significantly higher than that of gold. In the context of rapid upward movement, the requirements for risk management on the trading side increase, and the marginal impact of capital and sentiment changes on the silver price is enhanced. Compared with gold, silver is more sensitive to liquidity and speculative sentiment, and the risk of retracement at high levels is also accumulating [2]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, it is still supported by the macro - logic dominated by gold, but in the short term, it needs to release the volatility pressure through high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital re - balance and volatility changes on the rhythm [2]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2529.70, up 1.21%; the commodity 20 index is 2919.66, up 1.52%; the industrial products index is 2378.08, up 0.89%; the PPI commodity index is 1474.48, up 1.29% [45]. - **Plate Index**: The precious metals index on January 28, 2026, is 5155.66, with a daily increase of 3.28%, a 5 - day increase of 13.83%, a 1 - month increase of 29.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 34.82% [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The driving force in the off - season is limited, and the market is oscillating. Steel mill resumption is slow, high iron ore shipments and inventories suppress the market valuation. The first round of coke price increase is about to be implemented, and there is an expected tightening of coking coal supply before the Spring Festival, with the market stabilizing at a low level. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector in the off - season is emerging, and the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no negative feedback expectation, so the market oscillates. The demand for glass remains resilient, and the downstream replenishment of soda ash continues. There are signs of a low - level rebound in the market, but the oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to limit the upside space of the market [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - To - port volume has decreased, and short - term supply pressure has slightly eased, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still expected disturbances on the supply side due to weather, and pre - holiday replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on both sides in reality still need to be verified. Scrap steel supply is stable, with an expected decline in daily consumption, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken. It is expected that the spot price will follow the finished products [3]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke has strong cost - side support, and there is still an expectation of steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The coke supply - demand structure is relatively healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable for the time being, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the coal mine output is expected to decline as the holiday approaches on the supply side. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the market has priced in the winter storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [4]. 3.3 Alloys - The cost support for manganese silicon has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited under cost support. It is expected that the price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation at a low level. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions, but the low market trading activity suppresses the upside of the market. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [4]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expected disturbances in glass supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. Soda ash is in overall oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity de - stocking [4]. 3.5 Specific Analysis of Each Variety 3.5.1 Steel - In the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and the market oscillates. The spot market trading is generally weak. Steel mill profitability continues to improve, but the increase in molten iron production has slowed down. The pressure of inventory accumulation in the off - season is emerging, and the fundamentals lack highlights. In the short term, the market is under pressure on the upside, but there is no negative feedback expectation, and the downside space is limited [9]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The commodity sentiment is warm, and the market still has resilience. Overseas mine shipments have increased, and the to - port volume has decreased. The supply side is expected to be disturbed by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are replenishing stocks, but the enthusiasm is still weak. Port and steel mill inventories are accumulating. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [9][10]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - This week's arrivals have decreased, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces has decreased seasonally. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [11]. 3.5.4 Coke - The price increase is about to be implemented, and the market oscillates. The cost - side support is strong, and there is still an expectation of steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure is healthy. After the spot price increase is implemented, it may remain stable, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12][13]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - Downstream replenishment is gradually in place, and the spot auction prices mostly decline. The supply is stable, and the import is at a high level. The demand side is in the winter storage stage, but the inventory is gradually in place, and the market sentiment has cooled. It is expected to oscillate [14]. 3.5.6 Glass - The demand still has resilience, and the inventory is expected to be de - stocked. The supply may be disturbed, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, it will rise [15]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - Downstream replenishment continues, and short - term contradictions are limited. The supply has slightly increased, and the demand has a downward trend. The overall supply and demand are in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long run [15]. 3.5.8 Manganese Silicon - The upstream has great difficulty in de - stocking, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. The cost support has slightly loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream de - stocking pressure is large. The price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation at a low level [17]. 3.5.9 Silicon Iron - The market supply - demand contradictions are limited, and the market mainly oscillates. The cost supports the price, but the trading activity is low. The supply and demand are both weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [18]. 3.6 Index Information - On January 28, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 1.21% to 2529.70, the commodity 20 index increased by 1.52% to 2919.66, the industrial products index increased by 0.89% to 2378.08, and the PPI commodity index increased by 1.29% to 1474.48. The steel industry chain index on January 28, 2026, had a daily increase of 0.05%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.11%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.06% [103][104].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-29 市场围绕通胀布局 股指期货：围绕通胀线进攻 股指期权：波动下⾏信号未现 国债期货：债市情绪回暖 股指期货方面，周三权益市场走势相对平淡，多数宽基指数上行，但 整体波动幅度并不大，风格层面呈现红利领涨，小微盘偏弱的格局。行业 维度，近期大宗异动的背景之下，贵金属、基本金属、油化工、煤炭等领 域领涨，资金围绕通胀主线进行布局，同时医药、传媒、军工偏向主题概 念的成长板块弱势。资金维度或许可以解释近期风格，由于机构定价权强 化，景气度策略再度起效，此时偏向涨价的方向易获得机构资金增持，故 在通胀抬升宏观信心的背景下，建议继续配置IC多单，但上行斜率预计偏 缓。 股指期权方面，昨日标的市场日内震荡，多数品种收涨，乐观情绪延 续，中证500涨幅相对较大。期权市场成交量维持在下行通道中，但流动 性整体仍较好。情绪指标我们仍然重点关注本周低位的偏度指数，昨日相 较前一日无太大变化，表明买方市场结构上认购力量还是相对偏强；另 外，持仓量PCR方面不同风格出现较大分歧，50ETF、300ETF等位于近一个 季度低位，而500 ...