1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers mid - term outlooks for each metal, such as "oscillating" for copper, "wait - and - see or short - term trading" for alumina, "oscillating in the short - term and potentially shorting on highs in the long - term" for aluminum, etc. [7][9][13] 2. Report's Core View The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is optimistic due to the spread of the "anti - involution" concept. Although the US tariff game continues and the macro - economic situation is complex, policy stimulus expectations and supply disruptions support metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, there are structural investment opportunities, and in the long - term, there are opportunities to short on highs for some metals with excess supply. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The upcoming non - ferrous metals growth - stabilization plan will support copper prices. The new plan will lead to the orderly exit of backward copper production capacity. Supply constraints remain, and inventory is low, but demand is weakening marginally, and US copper tariffs are unfavorable. Copper is expected to oscillate. [7][8][9] - **Alumina**: With scarce warehouse receipts and high "anti - involution" sentiment, alumina hit the daily limit. In the short - term, it has a strong foundation, but attention should be paid to the recovery rate and volume of warehouse receipts and new supply disruptions. It is advisable to wait and see or engage in short - term trading. [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating strongly. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range, and in the long - term, there are concerns about consumption, with a tendency to short on highs. [12][13] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supported by macro - sentiment and cost, the market is oscillating strongly. In the short - term, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are oscillating at low levels, and there is room for an upward correction later, suitable for cross - variety arbitrage. [15] - **Zinc**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, zinc prices are short - term strong. However, in the long - term, supply is increasing while demand growth is limited, and prices are expected to be weakly oscillating. [16] - **Lead**: Boosted by macro - sentiment, lead prices are oscillating upward. As demand transitions from the off - season to the peak season, prices are expected to oscillate. [17][18][19] - **Nickel**: Due to non - ferrous metals supply - side reform, nickel prices are oscillating widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. [20][22][23] - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the overall strength of the commodity sector, the stainless - steel market is rising. In the short - term, it may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to inventory and cost changes. [24][25] - **Tin**: With a further decline in LME inventory, tin prices have strong bottom support. Although there is a basis for price increases, the upward momentum is not strong, and prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August. [25][26] 3.2行情监测 The report lists various metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin under this section, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. [28][42][55]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 29th week of 2025, presenting data on the issuance and net financing of various types of bonds and their progress as of July 20, 2025 [4][7][12]. 3. Summary by Bond Type 3.1 Special - Purpose Bonds - This week, the issuance of new special - purpose bonds was 161.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 97.4 billion yuan [4]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new special - purpose bonds was 54.3% [4]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new special - purpose bonds in July was 228.3 billion yuan [5]. 3.2 General Bonds - This week, the issuance of new general bonds was 27.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 13.1 billion yuan [7]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 61.8% [9]. - As of July 20, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July was 42.1 billion yuan [5]. 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 152.9 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 45.1 billion yuan [12]. - As of July 20, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 55.4% [12]. 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 58.2 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 135 billion yuan [17]. - As of July 20, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 57.1% [18]. 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 211.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 89.8 billion yuan [21]. - As of July 20, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local government bond issuance was 56.4% [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas fundamentals are relatively stable, with the new Fed Chair nominee affecting interest - rate cut expectations. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariff implementation in early August. The long - term weak - dollar pattern continues, and non - dollar assets are worth focusing on [6]. - China's Q2 economic data shows resilience, with export performance better than market expectations. The current pro - growth policies mainly focus on using existing resources, and the probability of incremental policies is higher in Q4. Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities [6]. - The logic of policy - driven investment is strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policies in Q4 is higher. Strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper should be maintained [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales. The potential Fed Chair nominees generally advocate interest - rate cuts, and the nomination is expected between October and December 2025. US tariff policies on other countries and China may be implemented before August 1st and 12th [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year, and June's export value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, better than expected. High - frequency data shows an increase in infrastructure work, and investment fundamentals have improved. As the Politburo meeting approaches, the market anticipates domestic - demand boosting policies. Currently, pro - growth policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer mainly structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to the details of "anti - involution" policies. Overseas, factors such as tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. A long - term weak - dollar pattern is expected, and strategic allocation of resources like gold and copper is recommended [6]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Positive expectations for "anti - involution" policies are hard to disprove, but there is a lack of incremental funds [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate, with deteriorating option liquidity [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond yield curve continues to steepen, and attention should be paid to unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver continue to adjust, and attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and Fed's monetary policies [7]. Shipping - For container shipping to Europe, attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, as well as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [7]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The market is affected by macro factors and fluctuates at high levels. Attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot - metal production slightly rebounds, and the market fluctuates strongly. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases is about to be implemented, and there are strong expectations for a second - round increase. Attention should be paid to steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Mongolian coal resumes customs clearance, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to steel production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment cools, and prices decline weakly. Attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: Policy falls short of expectations, and the market fluctuates weakly. Attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Market sentiment declines, and short - term fundamental contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to spot sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and spot prices keep falling. Attention should be paid to soda - ash inventory [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The possible early implementation of US tariffs on copper pressures copper prices. Attention should be paid to supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed's hawkish stance, and domestic demand recovery [7]. - **Alumina**: The scale of warehouse - receipt registration needs to be observed, and the market declines. Attention should be paid to unexpected ore production resumption, excessive electrolytic - aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: The inventory - accumulation rhythm fluctuates, and prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The rebound of the black - metal sector boosts zinc prices, and short - selling opportunities should be watched. Attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc - ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and inventory accumulates. Prices fluctuate. Attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: With the opening of the LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse, nickel prices are expected to decline in the long term. Attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and insufficient supply [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and the market fluctuates. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [7]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and prices are strongly supported at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Silicon prices rise under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and attention should be paid to warehouse - receipt changes. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply - side production cuts and excessive photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply disruptions are hyped, and prices fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market returns to trading a loose fundamental situation and may decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: "Anti - involution" trading keeps the asphalt - fuel oil price spread high, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High supply and "anti - involution" factors lead to a weakening market, which is expected to decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rotterdam's low - sulfur marine fuel is largely replaced by high - sulfur fuel, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **Methanol**: Low domestic production counters increasing imports, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and exports are needed. The market may fluctuate [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **PX**: Crude - oil prices are stable, and PX fluctuates strongly [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand weakens, but the cost of PX is strong. The market fluctuates [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis declines, and processing fees increase. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance begins, and processing fees reach the bottom. The market fluctuates [9]. - **PP**: News of petrochemical growth boosts the market, which fluctuates [9]. - **Plastic**: Production is expected to increase next week, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Styrene**: There is no clear market driver, and the market is expected to decline [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expectations for growth are strong, and the market is cautiously optimistic [9]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil leads the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory - accumulation pressure in producing areas. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Concerns about China's counter - measures against Canada drive up rapeseed meal prices. The market is expected to rise [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Spot supply is locally tight, and prices fluctuate weakly. The market is expected to decline [9]. - **Hogs**: Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure. The market fluctuates [9]. Agriculture - **Rubber**: Positive sentiment drives up prices, and the market fluctuates [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market rebounds after a decline and fluctuates [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is dominated by macro factors and fluctuates. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices rise with increasing positions and reach new highs. Attention should be paid to demand and production [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices rise slightly and fluctuate [9]. - **Logs**: Delivery continues, and prices rise with increasing positions. Attention should be paid to shipment and delivery volumes. The market is expected to decline [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading of positive policy expectations in the stock and bond markets continues. In the stock index futures market, the trading of positive policy expectations persists, and it is recommended to hold long positions in IM before the Politburo meeting in July. In the stock index options market, it is advisable to mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. In the treasury bond futures market, the yield curve continues to steepen, and in the medium - term, the odds of steepening the curve are relatively high [1][2][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The trading of positive policy expectations continues. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM for the current month changed by 5.51 points, 7.44 points, 10.53 points, and 18.99 points respectively compared to the previous trading day; the inter - period spreads (current month - next month) changed by - 5.6 points, 0 points, - 5.2 points, and - 0.6 points respectively; and the positions changed by 7308 lots, 3275 lots, 188 lots, and 5351 lots respectively. - **Logic**: On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index strengthened with increased trading volume reaching 1.5 trillion yuan. After the State Council Executive Meeting, the "anti - involution" theme continued to play out, and commodity prices of related and indirect varieties rebounded. Financial funds focused more on the expectation of policy intensification. The expansion of domestic demand was also a policy focus, leading to speculation in the consumer sector. The market sentiment was positive, with offensive sectors leading the rise and defensive sectors leading the decline. Since the expectation of policy intensification is difficult to be falsified, it is recommended to hold long positions in IM. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate long positions in IM [6]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Mainly adopt a far - month covered call strategy for defense. - **Logic**: The equity index oscillated and strengthened. The ChiNext Index rose 1.75%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.14%. The trading volume of each option variety was relatively stable. The implied volatility of far - month options continued to decline. Although selling far - month call options showed floating losses, they still had relatively high absolute returns compared to the index increase. It can be inferred that the market mainly traded far - month call option selling. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered call strategy [7]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The yield curve continues to steepen. The trading volume and positions of T, TF, TS, and TL for the current quarter changed, and the inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads, and basis also had corresponding changes. The central bank conducted 4505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases, with 900 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing. - **Logic**: On Thursday, most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.02%, the 10 - year main contract up 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract up 0.02%, and the 2 - year main contract up 0.01%. The central bank's large - scale net injection of 3605 billion yuan in the open market was beneficial to the short - end of the bond market, while the rise of the equity market and high risk appetite were negative for the long - end of the bond market, causing the curve to steepen. In the short - term, the bond market may remain volatile. After the tax period, the loosening of the capital side will support the short - end, while the long - end may be cautious due to improved risk appetite and government bond supply. The Politburo meeting at the end of the month may also affect the long - end. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: Maintain a volatile outlook. Hedging strategy: Pay attention to short - side hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: Appropriately pay attention to the widening of the basis. Curve strategy: The odds of steepening the curve are higher in the medium - term [7][8][9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - China's export amount year - on - year in June was 5.8% (previous value 4.8%, forecast 3.21%); new RMB loans in June were 22400 billion yuan (previous value 6200 billion yuan, forecast 18447.29 billion yuan); industrial added value year - on - year in June was 6.8% (previous value 5.8%, forecast 5.49%). The US CPI seasonally adjusted year - on - year in June was 2.7% (previous value 2.4%, forecast 2.7%) [10]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Tariffs**: US President Trump said on July 16 that the US might implement the tariff rate on Japan as previously stated in the letter and might soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting from August 1. - **Digital Currency Products**: On July 17, Huaxia Fund (Hong Kong) announced the establishment of two tokenized money market funds denominated in US dollars and RMB respectively. The Huaxia RMB Digital Currency Fund is the world's first RMB - tokenized fund. - **Brokerage Technology Application**: The Securities Association of China launched a special survey on the information technology work of brokerage branches to promote the standardization and efficiency improvement of information technology construction and management in branches. - **EU Budget**: The European Commission announced a new budget proposal from 2028 to 2034, with a total amount of 2 trillion euros, a significant increase compared to the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the European Commission proposed several fundraising plans, which have been questioned by multiple member states [10][11][12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Oscillating [7][8] - Polysilicon: Oscillating with an upward bias [9][11] - Lithium carbonate: Oscillating [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - The anti - involution sentiment has further fermented, leading to a strong price trend for new energy metals. The central financial meeting's mention of phasing out backward production capacity in an orderly manner has strengthened investors' expectations of supply - side contraction for silicon, and there are also disruptions in domestic lithium supply. The market sentiment is optimistic, but there is a risk of bilateral price fluctuations for new energy metals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Information Analysis** - As of July 17, the spot prices of industrial silicon continued to rise, with the oxygen - passing 553 in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton and 421 at 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. - As of June 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 327,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.7%. The cumulative production from January to June was 1.872 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [7]. - In May, the export volume of industrial silicon was 55,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The cumulative export from January to May was 272,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [7]. - In May, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 92.9GW, a month - on - month increase of 105.5% and a year - on - year increase of 388.0%. The cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May was 197.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 150.0% [7]. - **Main Logic** - Northwest large factories are continuously reducing production, providing price support. The resumption of production in the southwest is slower than in previous years, but some silicon factories have resumed production due to the price increase. The demand side is still weak, and the inventory tends to accumulate in the long term [8]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution sentiment continues, and the spot and futures prices have rebounded. The silicon price is expected to be oscillating with a short - term upward bias, but the slowdown in warehouse receipt removal will limit the upside [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon - **Information Analysis** - According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 40,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.4% [9]. - In May, China's polysilicon export volume was about 2,097.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 66.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30%. The cumulative export from January to May was 9,167.32 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.68%. The import volume in May was about 793 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% [9]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side news in the silicon industry chain is volatile. The polysilicon futures price has continued to rebound, and policy expectations have significantly boosted the silicon price. The supply is expected to increase in June - July, and the demand may weaken in the second half of the year. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of reverse fluctuations if the policy is not implemented as expected [11]. - **Outlook** - The anti - involution policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. The short - term price is expected to be strong, but there is a risk of price decline if the policy expectations are not fulfilled [11]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Information Analysis** - On July 17, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.32% to 67,960 yuan, and the total position of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 17,801 to 637,419 [11]. - On July 17, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 64,950 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate price remained unchanged at 63,350 yuan/ton [12]. - **Main Logic** - The supply - side disturbances have been hyped up. The current supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much. The short - term sentiment is positive, and the supply - demand margin has improved. The price is likely to rise but the upside may be limited [12]. - **Outlook** - In the short term, warehouse receipts and sentiment support the price, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The overnight economic data in the US showed an overall improvement. The better - than - expected retail data in June and the decline in the weekly initial jobless claims drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which are expected to maintain a short - term volatile trend. Gold maintains a long - term bullish trend, and silver retains a medium - term bullish view with cautious consideration of its elasticity. Attention should be paid to the new round of trade game in the first half of August and the change in interest - rate cut expectations brought by the global central bank meeting in the second half of August, as well as the trading interference from the "shadow Fed chairman" in the second half of the year. The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, the highest since March this year, with an expected increase of 0.1% and a previous decrease of 0.9%. Core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, with an expected increase of 0.3% and a previous decrease (revised) of 0.2% [2]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 221,000, with an expected 235,000. The four - week average was 229,500. The number of continued jobless claims as of the week ending July 5 was 1.956 million [2]. - US President Trump said he has no plan to fire Fed Chairman Powell unless fraud is proven. He also said he would accept Powell's resignation if Powell wants to [2]. - The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that economic activity in the US slightly rebounded from June to July. Import tariffs pushed up costs, and inflation may accelerate by the end of summer. Employment slightly increased, but companies were more cautious in hiring and lay - off decisions. The Fed's policy rate remained unchanged, and most officials were waiting to observe the impact of trade policies and inflation trends [2]. Price Logic The market had short - term fluctuations around the issue of Powell's possible dismissal. After Trump denied the dismissal rumor, market sentiment subsided. The overall improvement in US economic data drove the short - term strengthening of the US dollar and US stocks, putting pressure on precious metals, which maintained a short - term volatile trend. Long - term gold is bullish, and medium - term silver is also bullish with cautious consideration of its elasticity [3]. Outlook The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and COMEX silver in the range of [36, 40] [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. There is a higher probability of the implementation of incremental policies in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" policy on assets. Overseas, focus on the progress of tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - The "reciprocal tariff" rates of the US on most economies have been released, with most rates (except for Japan and Malaysia) being lowered, reducing short - term tariff uncertainties. In May, the US wholesale sales monthly rate was - 0.3% (expected 0.2%, previous value revised from 0.1% to 0%), and the wholesale inventory monthly rate final value was - 0.3% (expected - 0.3%, previous value - 0.3%). In June, the 1 - year inflation expectation of the New York Fed was 3.0% (expected 3.1%, previous value 3.2%). In June, the new non - farm employment in the US was better than expected, but there were concerns in the employment market. On July 4th, the "Big and Beautiful" Act was implemented, which may have limited long - term boost to the US economy and will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion in the next 10 years [7]. Domestic Macro - In June, China's export volume rebounded slightly year - on - year to 5.8%, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to the US was the main boost, and the "anti - involution" policy had a significant impact on some domestic - demand - oriented commodities. On July 1st, the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to "regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with regulations and promote the orderly withdrawal of backward production capacity" [7]. Asset Views - Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthened. Pay attention to the impact of the supply - side "anti - involution" on assets. Overseas, focus on tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Be vigilant against volatility spikes and pay attention to non - US dollar assets. Maintain a strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights Macro - Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [8]. Finance - The sentiment in the stock market rebounds, and the bond market maintains a volatile trend. Stock index futures continue a mild upward trend; stock index options remain cautious; the sentiment in the bond market for treasury bond futures weakens [8]. Precious Metals - The risk preference rises, and precious metals such as gold and silver continue to adjust [8]. Shipping - The sentiment in the shipping market falls. For the container shipping route to Europe, focus on the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases [8]. Black Building Materials - Iron ore performs strongly, supporting the price center of the sector. Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and others are in a volatile state, with different influencing factors for each [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - There is a game between reciprocal tariff negotiations and domestic policy stimulus expectations. Most non - ferrous metal varieties are in a volatile state, with some showing a downward trend, such as zinc and nickel [8]. Energy and Chemicals - OPEC+ over - expected production increase will drag down the energy and chemical sector to fluctuate weakly. Different chemical products have different short - term trends, such as some showing volatile rises, some showing volatile falls, and some remaining volatile [10]. Agriculture - In the agricultural sector, the prices of some products such as pigs are under pressure, and different agricultural products such as grains, oils, and livestock are in a volatile state, affected by various factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policies [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is to approach it with a mindset of weakening oscillations. Specific varieties have different ratings: crude oil, LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PTA, and urea are rated as "weakening oscillations"; PX, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, PP, plastic, PVC, and methanol are rated as "oscillations"; pure benzene is rated as "oscillating strongly"; and caustic soda is rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][7][8][11][13][14][17][19][22][24][26][27][28][30][31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price continues to oscillate and consolidate. The reduction in crude oil production in the Iraqi region provides some support, but the increase in refined oil inventories in the United States and the expected inventory build - up in the future may lead to weakening oscillations in oil prices if geopolitical disturbances subside. For most energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, cost, and market sentiment lead to an overall trend of weakening oscillations or oscillations. For example, asphalt prices are overvalued, high - sulfur fuel oil prices face downward pressure, and the cost - end support for LPG weakens [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical disturbances should be monitored. With the expected inventory build - up in the future, if geopolitical disturbances weaken, oil prices will gradually face pressure and are expected to weaken and oscillate [7] - **LPG**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3][11] - **Asphalt**: The valuation of asphalt futures prices is gradually entering a severely overvalued stage, and the asphalt price difference is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [8] - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face significant downward pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and the price is expected to weaken and oscillate [8][9][11] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil to oscillate and weaken, facing factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution [11] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol production areas show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price is relatively stable. The futures price oscillates in the short term [24][26] - **Urea**: The hype sentiment slows down, and the futures may return to the fundamentals. In the short term, it may face pressure to operate [24] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly start - up rate declines, and the downstream start - up rate also decreases. It continues to oscillate and consolidate [17][18] - **PX**: There is insufficient driving force, and it oscillates and consolidates [13] - **PTA**: The driving force is not obvious, and it consolidates. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [13] - **Short - Fiber**: The basis weakens, and there are no major contradictions in the industrial chain. The processing fee will remain stable, and the absolute value will follow the raw materials to fluctuate [19][21] - **Bottle - Chip**: Production cuts support the processing fee, and the absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate [22] - **PP**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [28] - **Plastic**: The maintenance rate slightly increases, and it oscillates [27] - **Pure Benzene**: The near - end long positions in styrene leave the market, and pure benzene follows to decline. In the medium term, the pattern from July to August is acceptable [14] - **Styrene**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the price drops [16][17] - **PVC**: Market sentiment warms up again, and it mainly oscillates. The fundamental pressure still exists [30] - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price reaches the peak, and it oscillates and operates. The 09 futures contract oscillates, facing downward pressure and support [31] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.96 with a change of - 0.01, and the 1 - 5 - month spread of PX is 38 with a change of - 10 [33] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, the basis of asphalt is 192 with a change of 0, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [34] - **Inter - variety Spread**: There are also corresponding values and changes in the inter - variety spread. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 298 with a change of - 4 [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the weekly data of silicon manganese and silicon iron alloys on July 18, 2025, including daily average output, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory, and compares them with the data on July 11, 2025 [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon Manganese - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 26,120 tons/day, an increase of 80 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 123,381 tons, a decrease of 1,547 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 216,300 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. Silicon Iron - **Daily Average Output**: The daily average output on July 18, 2025, was 14,285 tons/day, an increase of 175 tons/day compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate on July 18, 2025, was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand on July 18, 2025, was 20,013.7 tons, a decrease of 153.6 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory on July 18, 2025, was 63,540 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons compared to July 11, 2025 [2].

T 限公司 焦煤周度数据 2025年07月18日 | 关单 | 陶存辉 | 薛原 | 冉宇蒙 钟宏 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从业资格号 F03122523 | 从业资格号 F03099559 | 从业资格号 F03100815 | 从业资格号 F03144159 | 从业资格号 F03118246 | | 投资咨询号 Z0019832 | 投资咨询号 Z0020955 | 投资咨询号 Z0021807 | 投资咨询号 Z0022199 | 投资咨询号 Z0022727 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿原煤库存 | 山西 | 66. 58 | 75. 79 | -9.21 | | | 河北 | 54. 69 | 52. 69 | 2 | | | 山东 | 91.63 | 113. 97 | -22. 34 | | | 专国 | 236. 4 | 268. 15 | -31. 75 | | 单位:万吨 | 区域 | 2025-07-16 | 2025-07-09 | 环比 | | 煤矿精煤库 ...