投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-12-11 议息会议措辞偏鸽，⾦银有望震荡向上 12⽉议息会议如期降息25BP，鲍威尔发⾔⽐预期更加鸽派，结果披露后 美元及美债收益率出现显著下⾏。昨⽇银价⼤幅拉涨，⻩⾦维持震荡偏 强，⽉内我们对贵⾦属维持乐观，12⽉⾦银价格有望震荡向上。 重点资讯： 1）美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会后公布，降息25个基点，将联邦基 金利率目标区间下调至3.50%–3.75%。这是美联储继9月17日、10月 29日降息后年内的第三次降息，幅度均为25个基点。会议投票为9票 赞成、3票反对，部分委员主张维持利率不变或更大降幅。会议声明 指出经济温和扩张，就业增长放缓、失业率小幅上升，通胀仍处高 位，委员会关注双重使命的双向风险。为维持银行体系流动性充足， 自12月12日起启动每月约400亿美元的短期国债购买计划。美联储点 阵图预测显示在2026年和2027年各有一次25个基点的降息。 2）美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，货币政策无预设路径， 将逐次会议依据数据决策。通胀仍偏高，但非关税驱动的核心通胀已 显著改善，若无新关税，商品通胀预 ...

铂观点：降息交易延续，等待进⼀步向上驱动 主要逻辑：本周美联储议息会议成为关注焦点，当前市场注意力已由 降息决定本身转向鲍威尔在利率决议公布后的官方声明以及发布会上 的发言，若鲍威尔释放偏鹰派信号，或导致铂价短线小幅调整。不 过，中期铂价仍将受到向上推动。进入12月，临近美国总统提名美联 储主席，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈赛特是下任美联储主席的 头号候选人，其鸽派发言引发外界对美联储独立性的进一步担忧，并 给予铂价上行驱动。长期来看，铂金供给集中度高导致扰动风险持续 存在，需求在工业和投资端的带动下将稳步扩张，同时"降息+软着 陆"组合将进一步放大远期价格弹性，因此长期维持多头观点。 展望：供需基本面健康叠加宏观预期向好，预计铂价将震荡偏强，建 议关注铂低吸做多机会。同时，在铂钯比价低位情况下，建议关注多 铂空钯策略。 钯观点：现货紧张延续，价格保持坚挺 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 宏观扰动频繁，盘⾯表现分化 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘⾯受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济⼯作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢⼚盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以⼤幅下降， 基本⾯在进⼊淡季之后仍有压⼒，钢材盘⾯反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期⽀撑下铁⽔下⽅⽀撑偏强，仓单压⼒以及进⼝增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 地产利好政策出台预期持续升温，市场情绪转好，钢材及铁矿盘面受 此影响反弹较为明显，关注接下来的中央经济工作会议以及海外降息 节奏。近期钢厂盈利率有所改善，预计后期钢材产量难以大幅下降， 基本面在进入淡季之后仍有压力，钢材盘面反弹空间有限。冬储补库 预期支撑下铁水下方支撑偏强，仓单压力以及进口增加预期继续压制 煤焦价格，供需过剩下玻纯表现依旧不佳。 1. 铁元素方面：铁水下降明显，下游需求下滑，钢厂进行年度检 修，但钢厂盈利率略有好转，补库需求释放仍偏慢。海外矿山发运环 比略增，澳洲发运回升，巴西发运冲高回落，非主流发运环比大幅增 加，本期到港环比减量明显。但港口库存环比继续累积，钢厂库存环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-11 静待消费跟上，基本金属震荡整固 有⾊观点：静待消费跟上，基本⾦属震荡整固 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资者对美联储降息预期较为乐观，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端 延续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略 偏弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年1- 2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需改善放缓，但预期偏紧。整体来 看，中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧继续支撑价格，但高价对消 费抑制将限制进一步走高，基本金属转为震荡整固，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低 吸做多机会；长期，国内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰 动问题仍在，供需仍有趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：供应存收缩预期，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价⾼位震荡。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价⽌跌企稳。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 油脂：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 蛋白粕：低价吸引买盘，关注前低支撑力度 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡 生猪：存栏充裕，生猪盘面回落 天然橡胶：地缘消息炒作，持续性存疑 合成橡胶：盘面延续震荡格局 棉花：近月偏强，但上方阻力较大 白糖：短期低位震荡 纸浆：期货持续回落，维持震荡判断 双胶纸：需求预期偏差，双胶纸走弱 原木：仓单压力，原木走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-11 MPOB报告偏利空，油脂关注下方技术支 撑有效性 油脂观点：MPOB报告偏利空，关注下方技术支撑有效性 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。中信期货不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内 容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。如本报告涉及行业分析或上市公司相关内容，旨在对期货市场及其相关性进行比较论证，列举解释期货品种 相关特性及潜在风险，不涉及对其行业或上市公司的相关推荐，不构成对任何主体进行或不进行某项行为的建议或意见 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate alternately leading the rally in new energy metals. In the medium - to - short - term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policies in Nigeria over the weekend supported lithium carbonate prices. Polysilicon prices initially declined due to the increase in registered brands but were later supported by the growing expectation of silicon material storage policies. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, potentially raising the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but the demand expectation is also increasing, narrowing the expected supply - demand surplus. The long - term supply - demand trend of lithium carbonate needs to be re - evaluated, and the annual supply - demand inflection point may occur earlier [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Industrial Silicon - **View**: Cost support is weakening, and silicon prices are continuously falling. The medium - term outlook is that the price will show an oscillatory trend [5][6]. - **Information Analysis**: As of December 10, the spot prices of industrial silicon remained stable. The latest domestic inventory increased by 1.3% month - on - month. In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. From January to November, the cumulative production decreased by 15.3% year - on - year. In October, the export volume decreased by 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The significant decline in coal prices has weakened cost support, leading to a decline in silicon prices. In terms of fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon in December is expected to decline. The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy is weak, and the inventory accumulation trend continues, resulting in a weakening of the fundamentals [6]. Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of storage is rising again, and polysilicon prices continue to show high volatility. The medium - term outlook is wide - range oscillation [7][9][10]. - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 10, the average transaction price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased. In October 2025, the export volume decreased by 58% year - on - year, and the import volume decreased by 39.1% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A new polysilicon platform company was registered, and new brands were added to the futures registration [7]. - **Main Logic**: The expectation of polysilicon storage is rising, leading to high - volatility prices. The demand for polysilicon has declined marginally, but the supply is also shrinking during the dry season, and the expectation of anti - involution policies is still fermenting, so the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and lithium prices are experiencing greater volatility. The medium - term outlook is high - level oscillation [10][11]. - **Information Analysis**: On December 10, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 3.43%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased, while the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased. A lithium project was put into operation [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and inventory is decreasing in December. The resumption of production at Jiaxiaowo may cause price fluctuations. The supply is expected to remain strong in December, and the demand is currently good but needs to be monitored in the off - season. The inventory is decreasing, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [10]. Group 4: Market Index Information - On December 10, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the special indexes such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index, and PPI commodity index all increased. The new energy commodity index increased by 1.39% on the day, decreased by 1.44% in the past 5 days, increased by 2.49% in the past month, and increased by 6.81% since the beginning of the year [53][54].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - On December 10, silver rallied significantly, with the Shanghai silver futures rising 5.44% and Shanghai gold futures showing a mild upward trend with a 0.26% increase. The combination of squeeze trading and the risk of the Fed's independence has amplified the upward elasticity of silver. The new round of upward trend in gold and silver has started, and silver is expected to show greater elasticity [4]. - The contraction of the US dollar credit drives the long - term bull market in gold and silver. As the cycle shifts to a mild recovery, silver will have greater elasticity. In 2026, the global economy may transition from a soft landing to a mild recovery, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, releasing the upward elasticity of silver [5]. - Attention should be paid to the FOMC meeting this week. Although there may be short - term adjustment risks after the meeting results are announced, the precious metals are expected to maintain an overall upward - trending oscillation this month, with silver showing greater elasticity and supporting the upward movement of gold [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On December 10, silver prices soared, with the Shanghai silver futures closing with a 5.44% increase, while Shanghai gold futures showed a mild upward trend with a 0.26% intraday increase [4]. Reasons for Silver's Upward Movement - Liquidity - easing trading is the core quarterly driver. The nomination of the new Fed chairman may be confirmed early next year, and the probability of the more dovish candidate Hassett being nominated is increasing. Before his nomination and taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading on liquidity - easing expectations and the risk of the Fed's independence [4]. - Silver squeeze trading has amplified the upward elasticity and is difficult to ease quickly. The London silver lease rate remains high, the spot shortage has not been fundamentally resolved. Squeeze trading has spread from London to other markets, and it has also spread from silver to other metal varieties [4]. Long - term Trend - The contraction of the US dollar credit will continue to dominate the long - term bull market in gold and silver. In 2026, as the global economy transitions from a soft landing to a mild recovery, the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline, and the upward elasticity of silver will be released [5]. Short - term Outlook - The results of the December FOMC meeting will be announced early on December 11. Since the market has largely priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and considering Powell's data - dependent style, there may be short - term adjustment risks if a hawkish rate cut scenario occurs. However, due to the persistent silver squeeze trading and the risk - trading related to the Fed chairman's change, precious metals are expected to maintain an upward - trending oscillation this month [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's outlook is "oscillation" [4] Core Views - The spot market has a good loading preference, and the freight rate center continues to rise. The 02 contract is at a premium to the 12 contract, with a significant increase in the 02 contract, rising trading volume, and increasing positions. The far - month contracts are oscillating, and the 12 contract has a slight decline [1] - The freight rates of some shipping companies in the spot market have adjusted. The geopolitical situation may complicate the second - stage cease - fire negotiations, and there are different stances in the macro - environment. The trading logic is that the shipping company's loading rate remains strong until the end of the year, and the market is optimistic about the implementation of the MSK's price increase plan. There are still expectations for price increases in January, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. It is advisable to pay attention to the 02 - 04 positive spread [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Spot Market Freight Rates - GEMINI: The HPL - SPOT NE2/AE1 freight rate in the third week of December dropped to $2235/FEU; the MSK's fourth - week price was $2300/FEU and remained unchanged today [2] - OCEAN: The CMA's freight rate in the first half of December dropped to $2345/FEU, a decrease of $300, the same as the OOCL's $2880/FEU in the first half of December. In the second half, GMA and OOCL are at $2745/FEU and $2530 - 2630/FEU respectively, and the offline price is $2450 - 2600/FEU [2] - PA&MSC: The YML updated the freight rate from December 21 - 31 to $1575/TEU and $2650/FEU, a decrease of $200/FEU compared to last week's announced price, but an increase of $650 compared to the first - half price in December [2] Geopolitical Situation - A Hamas source said they would negotiate on disarmament but would not be forced to give up their guns, asking Israel to withdraw from Gaza and mediators to ensure that Israel does not resume military operations in Gaza. The second - stage cease - fire negotiations may become complicated [2] Macro - environment - The French President expressed a tough stance after returning from a visit to China, criticizing the large trade surplus between China and the EU, while Germany had a positive attitude towards China [3] Trading Logic - By the end of the year, the shipping company's loading rate remains strong. The PA's container goods support its second - half price increase plan. The OCEAN's second - half freight rate is set at $2500/FEU, and the GEMINI's is set at $2300 - 2400/FEU, with the freight rate center rising by about $200/FEU compared to the first half [3] - The market is more optimistic about the implementation of MSK's plan to raise the price to $3500/FEU. MSK has announced a PSS for the Mediterranean route. Attention should be paid to whether it will push up the Nordic PSS to boost sentiment and benefit the near - month contracts [3] - Due to less delayed capacity in the 52nd week and the long - term contract negotiation period, there are still expectations for price increases in January and mid - January. The market demand before the Spring Festival in January is strong, and the 02 contract benefits from early delivery. There is a differentiation in the logic between near - and far - month contracts, and attention can be paid to the 02 - 04 positive spread [3] Contract Performance - As of the close, the 02 contract closed at 1665.2 points, up 3.41%, with an increase of 669 in open interest; the 04 contract closed at 1080.7 points, up 0.6%, with a decrease of 159 in open interest; the 06 contract closed at 1225.6 points, up 0.9%; the 12 contract closed slightly lower at 1655 points, down 0.4%, with a decrease of 114 in open interest [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report maintains a moderately optimistic view on certain equity and commodity assets [3][10][15]. Core Viewpoints The Political Bureau meeting held on December 8, 2025, set a relatively positive tone for the economic work in 2026. The meeting outlined five key points, including a new work tone, loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies, emphasis on key tasks in the 15th Five - Year Plan, understanding of internal risks, and special arrangements for low - carbon transformation. These may have potential impacts on major assets such as equity indices, interest rates, exchange rates, and commodities [4][5][6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economy - The meeting set the core tone for 2026 economic work, with specific arrangements to be made at the Central Economic Work Conference [14]. - Five key focuses: new work tone of coordinating domestic and international economic affairs; potentially loose and proactive fiscal and monetary policies; emphasis on 15th Five - Year Plan tasks like expanding domestic demand and innovation; awareness and arrangements for internal risks; and special work for low - carbon transformation [15][16][17]. 2. Equity Index - The meeting's policy is supportive, emphasizing domestic demand and technological innovation. In the stock market, take a long - term view, wait for the "spring rally" window, and focus on technology and the price - increase chain. At the end of the year, the market consolidates to release capital crowding, and pullbacks are opportunities to add positions. Short - term focus on price - increase chain and high - dividend stocks, and medium - term on innovation and IC sectors [20][21][22]. 3. Bond and Forex - Fiscal policies will be more proactive, and monetary policies will be moderately loosened in 2026. Short - term caution on the long end of government bonds, and medium - term the bond market may be strong and volatile. The RMB exchange rate in 2026 may show a stable and rising trend with an operating range of 6.8 - 7.2 [27][30][31]. 4. Commodities - The meeting's policies are conducive to stabilizing the macro - expectations on the demand side of the commodity market. Traditional domestic demand areas will receive support, and green transformation will create incremental demand for new - energy - related commodities. The meeting will restrain excessive price fluctuations of key varieties and boost market confidence [33][35][36].