Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/08 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: Li Qiang attends the first-stage meeting of the 17th BRICS Leaders' Meetin ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall view of the financial derivatives market is that stocks and bonds will maintain a volatile trend. In the short - term, all three markets of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures should be dealt with using a volatile mindset [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - Yesterday, the A - share market had a narrow - range oscillation, with the All - A Index fluctuating less than 0.4%. Real estate and public utilities led the gains, while telecommunications and healthcare led the losses. There were 76 daily limit stocks, concentrated in concepts such as electricity and stablecoins. - Recently, the market has shown a trend of decreasing trading volume. Uncertainty from tariff news and profit - taking sentiment due to the decline of previous hot sectors have affected market confidence. In the short - term, it should be treated as a volatile market, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - IF, IH, IC, and IM's current - month contract basis points closed at - 20.17, - 17.93, - 41.21, and - 59.94 respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.77, - 0.49, - 3.97, and - 9.74 points. The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts were 17.6, 5.2, 54.8, and 79.2 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 1.4, - 0.6, 1.6, and 3.6 points. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed by - 22721, - 11893, - 15589, and - 30422 hands [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - Considering that some underlying assets reached local highs last week, there is a high risk of a phased correction at the beginning of this week. Although the underlying assets showed signs of correction, the amplitude was low yesterday, and the liquidity at the beginning of the week was weak, decreasing by more than 50% compared to last Friday. - The volatility of ChiNext ETF and 500ETF decreased significantly. For ChiNext ETF, the put - side volatility led the decline, indicating short - term put - position closing. For 500ETF options, the put - side increased while the call - side volatility decreased, suggesting a sign of building a collar strategy. - The sentiment of trading - type funds is neutral, and there is still an adjustment risk in the short - term. For volatility trend strategies, it is recommended to pay attention to opportunities when volatility spikes. In terms of varieties, 50 and 300ETF options have a higher safety margin. The main strategy should maintain covered calls to enhance returns in a volatile environment [2]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - The T main contract opened slightly higher and strengthened, then adjusted with a decline in open interest, indicating strong profit - taking sentiment among market bulls. It rebounded in the afternoon but still maintained a low - level oscillation overall. - The central bank net - withdrew more than 200 billion yuan yesterday, and the overnight repurchase rate slightly increased, indicating that the capital interest rate may be bottoming out, which may cause some disturbances to the cash - bond market. - However, the June manufacturing PMI was still below the boom - bust line, and tariff policies are still uncertain. New factors such as the introduction of new quantitative regulations in the stock market may also affect risk appetite. Therefore, the bond market may also be supported, and a volatile mindset should be adopted in the short - term [3]. - The trading volume of T, TF, TS, and TL in the current quarter was 49192, 59821, 35462, and 55668 hands respectively, with a one - day change of - 11647, 16847, 9275, and - 15984 hands. The open interest was 216298, 157986, 115517, and 122562 hands respectively, with a one - day change of 2158, 81, - 1682, and - 16 hands [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - On July 7, 2025, the annual growth rate of retail sales in the Eurozone in May was 1.8%, with a previous value of 2.3% and a forecast value of 1.2%. - On July 9, China will release the annual growth rate of CPI and PPI in June, with forecast values of 0% and - 3.2% respectively. - On July 10, China will release the annual growth rate of M2 money supply in June, with a forecast value of 8.2%, as well as the cumulative new RMB loans and social financing scale in June [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - The first batch of 10 science - innovation bond ETFs were launched today and successfully raised funds, approaching or exceeding the 3 - billion - yuan fundraising limit. After their establishment, they are expected to bring 30 billion yuan in new scale, and the scale of bond ETFs will soon exceed 400 billion yuan. - The State Council Information Office will hold a series of press conferences on "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan". The first press conference will be held on July 9. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that many positions in the negotiation have changed, and multiple new proposals were received last night. He expects to announce trade - related news within 48 hours. He announced that the overall tariff on Vietnam will be increased to 20%, and that the positions of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will follow the president's wishes [12]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions data monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures, but no specific data content is provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, with most being rated as "oscillating", including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and ferromanganese [7][10][12][14][15]. Core Viewpoints - The black spot market has been mediocre recently, with capital issues not significantly alleviated and weak terminal demand making it difficult for spot prices to rise. The futures market is more driven by expectations, and with the improving domestic and international macro - environment, the overall commodity valuation has increased. The furnace materials with relatively more certain demand perform better than finished products. After the price spike, it is advisable to wait and see for the next two weeks to observe the sustainability of steel demand [1]. - The "anti - involution" - related production cut expectations' positive impact has temporarily ended. The price increase has affected the export orders of finished products, and the spot price increase is weak. The black futures prices have slightly corrected. The industrial fundamentals are currently in a relatively balanced state, and the steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies and the degree of demand weakening [2]. Summary by Variety Steel - Core Logic: On July 4, 2025, Vietnam imposed a final anti - dumping duty of 23.01 - 27.83% on Chinese hot - rolled coils, and the US President will not extend the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline. High prices have limited downstream purchasing willingness. After the rainy season, the supply and demand of rebar have both increased, and the inventory has continued to decline; the supply of hot - rolled coils has increased while the demand has decreased, and the inventory has continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products have both increased, and the inventory change is limited [7]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel are not prominent, and the off - season pressure remains to be observed. Overseas tariff disturbances are continuous. After the steel price increase, the steel export pressure shows signs of marginal weakening. It is expected that the short - term steel price will oscillate [7]. Iron Ore - Core Logic: This week, overseas mines have basically ended their end - of - quarter production rush, with a decline in shipments. The arrival volume at 45 ports has slightly increased but is lower than expected. The steel enterprises' iron water output has slightly decreased but remains at a high level year - on - year. Due to the lower - than - expected arrival volume and high demand, the port inventory has slightly decreased [7]. - Outlook: The iron ore demand is at a high level, and the fundamental contradictions are not obvious. After this round of increase, the futures price has reached an important pressure level. It is expected that the iron ore price will oscillate in the short - term [7]. Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The supply of scrap steel has decreased this week, and the demand has also declined. The long - and short - process total daily consumption of scrap steel has decreased, and the factory inventory has slightly decreased [8]. - Outlook: The supply and demand of scrap steel have both weakened marginally, and it is expected that the price will oscillate after the macro - environment cools down [8]. Coke - Core Logic: The supply and demand of coke have both declined. Most coke enterprises maintain normal production, while a small number have reduced production due to profit pressure. The steel mills' iron water output has decreased, but the demand for coke remains strong [10]. - Outlook: There is an expectation of a price increase in the coke market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the iron water output and coal mine resumption [10]. Coking Coal - Core Logic: Two coal mines in Shanxi have resumed production, and the overall supply is gradually recovering. The Mongolian coal port transactions are active, but the port will be closed from this Friday to next Tuesday. The short - term demand for coking coal remains, but the market is waiting and seeing due to the expectation of coal mine resumption [10]. - Outlook: The coal mine supply is expected to recover, but the short - term demand remains strong. It is expected that the short - term futures price will oscillate [10]. Glass - Core Logic: In the off - season, the demand for glass has decreased, and the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken. There are still 3 production lines waiting to produce glass, and one production line is planned to resume production. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased. The market is worried about supply - side production cuts, and the market is mainly in a wait - and - see state [12]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, and the futures price has rebounded due to the expected production cuts. In the short - term, the positive feedback may be strong, but in the long - term, it still needs market - based capacity reduction. It is expected that the price will oscillate [12]. Soda Ash - Core Logic: The supply capacity of soda ash has not been cleared, and the supply pressure remains. The heavy - soda ash is expected to maintain rigid demand, while the light - soda ash demand is weak. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [12]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern of soda ash has not changed. There are planned maintenance in July. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the price center will decline in the long - term [12]. Ferromanganese - Core Logic: The price of manganese ore has slightly decreased. The supply of ferromanganese has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and the demand is expected to decline slightly as the steel production may decrease in the off - season [14]. - Outlook: The cost push is insufficient, and the supply - demand relationship of ferromanganese is becoming looser. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [14]. Ferrosilicon - Core Logic: The cost of ferrosilicon is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand from the steel and metal magnesium industries has uncertainties. The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but the future supply - demand gap may be filled [15]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, but the price increase driving force is insufficient. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are concerns in the US employment market, with an increase in the proportion of permanent unemployment and continued rise in continuing jobless claims, along with slowing wage growth. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may have limited long - term economic boost but will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years [5]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti - involution" policy combined with low prices has driven short - term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities have improved. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed rate - cut bets, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit. There are concerns in the employment market [5]. - **Domestic**: Economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has led to short - term rebounds in some commodities, and the June PMI data shows improvement [5]. - **Asset Outlook**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas risks such as tariff frictions should be watched. A strategic allocation to gold is recommended [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectations are flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling [7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Anti - involution competition is boosting policy expectations, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: A defensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is warming up, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply disturbances are increasing, and the market is showing strength, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore production is decreasing, and port inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coke**: Fundamentals are improving, and cost support is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is slowly recovering, and upstream inventories are decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is strongly rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the market is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Glass**: Far - month expectations are being repaired, and inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: LME inventories are low, and copper prices are high, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Alumina**: The "anti - involution" policy has stimulated market sentiment, and the market has risen strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Aluminum/Zinc**: Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly, with short - term outlooks of volatility and volatile decline respectively [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Nickel**: The industrial product market is improving, and nickel prices are strong in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Market sentiment is boosting, and the market is rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Tin**: Supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, lithium prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market is trading based on loose fundamentals, and the PG market may be weakly volatile, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ over - production in August has weakened asphalt futures prices, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ over - production has strengthened the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - high sulfur spread is rebounding, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang price is weakening, and methanol is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate in the short term, relying on exports [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **PX**: Crude oil is stable, and PX is oscillating strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, and the cost of PX is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis is falling, and processing fees are rising, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PP**: Important meetings have boosted market expectations, and PP is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Plastic**: The "anti - involution" policy has slightly boosted the market, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Styrene**: There is a lack of driving factors, and styrene is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **PVC**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is weakly stable, and caustic soda is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The market was weakly volatile yesterday, and palm oil is more resistant to decline, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure dominates, and the spot market is leading the decline, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market sentiment is poor, and the market is in a weak adjustment, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Rubber**: After a decline, it has stabilized, with limited downward space in the short term, and a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak raw materials have dragged down the market, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is in a stalemate, and the downward trend has not been confirmed to end, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are in a new round of oscillation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Timber**: Spot digestion is limited, and the market is still weakly operating in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9].

Report Summary Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoint The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 27th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress and scale changes of various types of bonds. Key Points by Bond Type New Special Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new special bonds is 49.2% [2] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in July is 2.9 billion [3] - This week, the issuance of new special bonds is 5.08 billion, a decrease of 37.15 billion from the previous week [20] New General Bonds - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new general bonds is 56.5% [6] - As of July 6, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in July is 0 [3] - This week, the issuance of new general bonds is 660 million, a decrease of 5.06 billion from the previous week [4] Local Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds is 2.17 billion, a decrease of 53.87 billion from the previous week [8] - As of July 6, the issuance progress of new local bonds is 50.3% [8] Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds is 19.99 billion, an increase of 8.89 billion from the previous week [12] - As of July 6, the net financing progress of treasury bonds is 53.3% [14] Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds is 22.16 billion, a decrease of 44.98 billion from the previous week [16] - As of July 6, the progress of treasury bond net financing + new local bond issuance is 52.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, and there are concerns in the US employment market [6]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti-involution" policy has driven short-term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a strengthened policy-driven logic. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The June non-farm payrolls in the US were better than expected, but there are concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit [6]. - Domestic: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti-involution" policy has affected domestic commodities [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas, attention should be paid to various risks. Long-term weak US dollar and strategic allocation to non-US dollar assets are recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Metal Markets - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestic assets have structural opportunities [8]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Most financial products are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious metals: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment, with an expected volatile trend [8]. - Shipping: The sentiment has declined, and the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate should be monitored. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black building materials: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly, with most products expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous and new materials: The low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemical Markets - Energy and chemicals: Affected by European extreme weather, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Most products are expected to have a volatile trend, with some showing upward or downward trends [11]. - Agriculture: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven the rebound of agricultural products. The market will continue to pay attention to policies such as the US biodiesel policy [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal, iron ore, and poly - silicon, while the top three decliners were rapeseed, TSR 20, and Chinese jujube [13][14][15]. - For coking coal, supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern with short - term fluctuations [18][23]. - For crude oil, low - inventory and geopolitical concerns drive the price up, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - For lithium carbonate, supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures (期货异动) 3.1.1 Overview (行情概述) - On July 3, equity index futures rose, CGB futures had mixed performance, most commodity futures closed higher, and some agricultural products declined [12][15]. - The top three gainers were coking coal (up 3.8% with 1.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), iron ore (up 2.4% with 1.3% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and poly - silicon (up 2.1% with 19.0% month - on - month decrease in open interest) [13][15]. - The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 1.8% with 17.9% month - on - month increase in open interest), TSR 20 (down 1.2% with 5.7% month - on - month decrease in open interest), and Chinese jujube (down 1.1% with 5.6% month - on - month increase in open interest) [14][15]. 3.1.2 Daily Rise (上涨品种) 3.1.2.1 Coking Coal (焦煤) - On July 3, coking coal increased by 3.8% to 856 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to gradually recover, and the market will maintain a loose supply - demand pattern, with short - term fluctuations predicted [18][23]. - The central conference improved market sentiment. Some coal mines in Shanxi may suspend or limit production, while others are resuming production, but the overall supply recovery is slow. Import customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port is low, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal is about to be lowered [19][20][23]. - Coke output is stable with a slight decrease, and rising costs squeeze coke enterprises' profits, with an expected further decline in the operating rate. Short - term rigid demand exists, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased, and upstream coal mines are destocking [21][23]. 3.1.2.2 Crude Oil (原油) - On July 3, crude oil increased by 1.6% to 506.3 yuan/barrel. Low - inventory and geopolitical concerns are the triggers for the price rise, but the previous high may be hard to reach again, and the market may fluctuate with inventory accumulation [26][29]. - OPEC's production in June increased by 360,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2.801 million barrels per day, with several countries including Saudi Arabia increasing production [27][29]. - The EIA inventory report shows an increase in total petroleum inventories. Also, due to the heatwave in Europe, there is an expectation of increased demand for oil - fired power generation [28][29]. 3.1.2.3 Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂) - On July 3, lithium carbonate increased by 0.9% to 64080 yuan/ton. Supply and demand remain in surplus, but short - term reduction in warehouse receipts supports prices, which are expected to remain range - bound [33][37]. - Market sentiment is positive, with good demand production schedule expectations and low warehouse receipts. Supply shows a month - on - month increase in weekly output, domestic lithium mine production grows, but imported lithium salts may decline. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan [34][37][38]. - From January to June, domestic cathode material production maintained growth. July is a traditional off - season, but demand production schedule expectations are good, and leading enterprises show signs of purchasing. Social inventories accumulate, while warehouse receipt inventories are destocked, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short positions at highs [35][36][38]. 3.2 China News (中国要闻) 3.2.1 Macro News (宏观新闻) - The Ministry of Commerce responded to reports of the US President planning to visit China with a business delegation, stating no information to provide but hoping for joint efforts to promote China - US economic and trade relations [40][41]. - China's Caixin Services PMI for June was 50.6, down 0.5 percentage points from May, with the prosperity level declining to the lowest since Q4 2024 [40][41]. - The US government lifted export restrictions on EDA to China, canceling some export license requirements for Chinese chip design software [40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic stability continues, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources like gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. The June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there are still structural concerns due to tariff policies and cautious consumer expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI in June slightly rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. May's job vacancies reached a high level, and core durable goods orders surged [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's manufacturing PMI has increased for two consecutive months, with production and demand both warming up. However, the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new ones. The real estate market is in a weak state after the "small spring", and infrastructure physical work has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a surge at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Abroad, inflation expectations have flattened, and economic growth expectations have improved [8]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures may fluctuate upward, stock index options should focus on hedging, and treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment, and gold and silver prices will fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The freight rate of container shipping to Europe will fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly. Most varieties, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, will fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weak demand coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like zinc may decline, while others will fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Affected by extreme weather in Europe, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like crude oil may decline, while others will fluctuate or rise [10]. - **Agriculture**: Driven by the improvement of the macro - environment, agricultural products have rebounded. Most varieties will fluctuate, and some like soybean oil and short - fiber may rise [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The market interprets the "anti - involution" policy as a price rebound rather than a reversal. Stocks in coal, transportation, and steel industries led the decline, while those in electronics, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology industries led the rise. The semi - annual report pre - increase theme is a visible investment line until mid - July. In the high - level oscillation period, it is advisable to focus on arbitrage opportunities by going long on far - month contracts and short on near - month contracts in the stock index futures market [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, due to low trading liquidity and volatility, and the potential ineffectiveness of sentiment indicators, it is recommended to adopt a covered defense strategy [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the short - end performed better than the long - end. The long - end bullish sentiment weakened marginally. In the short term, the bond market is expected to continue to oscillate due to factors such as the central bank's cautious liquidity injection, high local bond supply in July, and potential tariff disturbances [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Views - **Stock Index Futures** - **Data**: IF, IH, IC, IM's current - month basis points were - 21.47, - 16.95, - 48.66, - 63.24 respectively, with changes of 1.22, 2.6, - 12.31, - 15.95 points compared to the previous trading day; the current - month to next - month spreads were 18.6, 4.6, 54.2, 71.8 points respectively, with changes of 0.8, - 0.8, 3.8, - 1.6 points; the positions changed by - 481, - 1877, 1566, 2566 lots respectively [6]. - **Logic**: The market interprets the "anti - involution" policy as a price rebound. After excluding inflation - chain investment opportunities, funds rotate among scattered hot industries. There is a lack of a main line to boost trading volume during the high - level oscillation period [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6]. - **Stock Index Options** - **Data**: The trading volume of the options market rebounded slightly, but the overall trading liquidity remained low. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options dropped by 0.39%, and that of SSE 500 ETF options decreased by 0.18% [2][6]. - **Logic**: The double - low situation of liquidity and volatility, combined with the ineffective sentiment indicators, indicates that the index has resistance above and the market will continue to oscillate [2][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a covered defense strategy [2][6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Data**: The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, TL's current - quarter contracts were 64924, 51486, 24843, 72609 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of 6969, 5555, - 101, 3741 lots; the positions were 206020, 156476, 115715, 117980 lots respectively, with 1 - day changes of - 499, - 1347, 120, - 1737 lots. Other spread and basis data are also provided [7]. - **Logic**: The long - end bullish sentiment weakened marginally due to the stock - bond seesaw effect and the profit - taking motivation of long - end futures. The central bank may be cautious in liquidity injection, and the local bond supply in July may be high, limiting the downward space of interest rates. Tariff disturbances may increase after July 9 [2][7][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain an oscillating trend strategy; pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels; appropriately focus on basis widening; the mid - term strategy of steepening the yield curve has higher odds [8]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The official manufacturing PMI in China in June was 49.7, up from 49.5 in the previous month. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.9, higher than the expected and previous values. The US unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and the previous 4.2%, and the non - farm payrolls increased by 14.7 million, higher than the expected 10.6 million [9]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Domestic Macro**: On July 3, the Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology hosted a manufacturing enterprise symposium, where 14 photovoltaic enterprises and industry association representatives exchanged views on various aspects and put forward policy suggestions [9]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US non - farm payrolls increased by 14.7 million in June, higher than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The private - sector employment increased by only 7.4 million, the lowest since last October, mainly driven by the healthcare industry [10]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [11][15][27].

中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2025-7-4 ⾮农政府就业⼤幅反弹，降息预期回落 美国6⽉新增⾮农就业数据超预期，但细分结构表现不佳，14.7万的新增 就业中有7.3万来⾃政府部⻔的贡献，私⼈部⻔新增就业仅为7.4万⼈， 环⽐上⽉⼤幅下降6.3万⼈，但数据公布后市场对7⽉降息的预期仍显著回 落，对贵⾦属价格带来压制。短期关注7⽉8⽇关税缓和期到期前后的贸易 政策变动，若贸易摩擦短期不发⽣显著恶化，贵⾦属短期或缺乏上⾏驱 动，仍需震荡蓄⼒。下半年维持对⻩⾦趋势性看多，⽩银谨慎看多的观 点。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 重点资讯： 1）美国6月季调后非农就业增14.7万人，预期增11.0万人，前值从增 13.9万人修正为增14.4万人。6月失业率4.1%，预期4.3%，前值4. 2%。 非农就业报告公布后，利率期货交易员放弃了对7月美联储降息 的押注。目前市场对九月份美联储降息的概率约为80%，低于非农就 业报告公布前的98%。 2）美国上周初请失业金人数23.3万人，创下自5月中旬以来的六周新 低，预期24.0万人，前值从23.6万人修正为23.7万人；四周均值24. 15万人，前值从24 ...