Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, supply expectations are fluctuating and driving the market. Lithium carbonate is leading the decline in new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, which may lead to a higher price center. The production capacity of lithium ore is still rising, and the high - growth supply of lithium carbonate will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. - The market sentiment for industrial silicon is fluctuating, causing the silicon price to decline. The sentiment for polysilicon has cooled, and it is oscillating at a high level. The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price has declined. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [5]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - passing 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China are 9450 yuan/ton and 9700 yuan/ton respectively, with minor fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory is 447,700 tons, a 0.6% increase month - on - month. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 264,700 tons, a 1.0% increase month - on - month [5]. - As of October 2025, the monthly production of domestic industrial silicon was 452,000 tons, a 7.5% increase month - on - month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to October was 3.469 million tons, a 16.7% decrease year - on - year [5]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon was 70,233 tons, an 8.4% decrease month - on - month and a 7.7% increase year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 561,000 tons, a 2.3% increase year - on - year [5]. - The new photovoltaic installation in September was 9.66GW, a 53.76% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative new photovoltaic installation from January to September reached 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [5]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest is expected to decrease as the dry season approaches, while the supply in the northwest is stable with potential for further production resumption. The overall supply of domestic industrial silicon remains relatively loose. The demand from the polysilicon industry in the southwest is expected to decline slightly in November, the organic silicon DMC market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The continuous reduction of industrial silicon warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [5]. - **Outlook**: Although the reduction in southwest production during the dry season and the rapid reduction of short - term warehouse receipts provide some support, there is still supply pressure in November. The silicon price is expected to oscillate [5]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has cooled, and polysilicon is oscillating at a high level. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The成交 price range of N - type re -投料 is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9590 lots, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - In September, the export volume of polysilicon was about 2150 tons, a 53% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to September 2025 was 18,667 tons, a 30% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in September was about 1292 tons, a 49.46% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative import from January to September was 14,677 tons, a 53.26% year - on - year decrease [6]. - The new domestic photovoltaic installation from January to September 2025 was 240.27GW, a 49.35% increase year - on - year [6]. - Some polysilicon production bases in the southwest are gradually reducing raw material input and are expected to fully stop production from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7]. - **Main Logic**: The market risk appetite has cooled. The production of polysilicon has rebounded in August - September and is expected to remain high in October, but will contract in November with the arrival of the dry season. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Although the current supply - demand situation is under pressure, it is expected to improve during the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy has a significant positive impact on the polysilicon price, but the inventory pressure is still large. The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The lithium carbonate price has fallen due to sentiment, but the supply - demand situation remains strong. The medium - term outlook is oscillating [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On November 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 4.52% to 78,560 yuan/ton, and the total open interest decreased by 82,510 lots to 827,400 lots [8]. - On November 4, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,900 yuan/ton, the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 78,700 yuan/ton, and the average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) decreased by 3 US dollars/ton to 941 US dollars/ton. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 800 lots to 26,490 lots [9]. - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in October were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale from January to October is estimated to be 12.054 million, a 30% year - on - year increase [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is expected to continue to decrease in November. However, the supply expectations are fluctuating, causing significant price fluctuations. The production is expected to remain strong from November to December, with additional import expectations in November. The apparent demand is good, but attention should be paid to the production schedule in December and the potential weakening of demand in the first quarter of next year. The speculative demand may push up the price when it falls [9]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10]. 4. Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Index (November 4, 2025)**: The commodity index is 2229.67, a 0.92% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2521.83, a 0.98% decrease; the industrial product index is 2213.57, a 1.07% decrease [50]. - **New Energy Commodity Index (November 4, 2025)**: The index value is 407.95, with a daily decrease of 3.96%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.84%, a monthly increase of 2.51%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.08% [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly due to sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. Although the report previously mentioned that November might be a price inflection point, the strong fundamentals have not changed. After the price drop, there are buyers, making it difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate fell by more than 5% during the session. Since October 31, lithium prices have significantly corrected. The recent sharp decline is mainly due to market sentiment suppression and the correction of the expected supply elasticity. In October, SMM's lithium carbonate production in China was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.7%, exceeding the previous expectation of 90,000 tons. The market also advanced the expectation of the resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines [3]. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: SMM's monthly production continued to increase significantly. In October, the production increased by 6.7% month - on - month to 92,300 tons. It is expected to remain strong from November to December, and there is an additional import expectation in November. The resumption of production of small - scale lithium mines has been repeatedly expected, causing large market sentiment fluctuations [4]. - **Demand**: The current apparent demand is good, and the performance in November is still strong. Attention should be paid to the production plan in December, and the demand may weaken in the first quarter of next year. Optimistic expectations for consumption scenarios such as power batteries and energy storage will generate speculative demand when prices fall, raising the price center [4]. - **Inventory and Basis**: Social inventory continued to decline last year, and de - stocking is expected to continue in November. Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been decreasing, and further decline should be watched out for [4]. Summary and Strategy - The decline in lithium carbonate prices today is mainly affected by sentiment, with long - position holders actively reducing their positions. The strong fundamentals have not changed, and it is difficult to form a trend - like downward movement. Further observation of downstream procurement, upstream production, and inventory changes is needed to determine the off - season inflection point. The price will maintain a wide - range oscillation. Upstream enterprises can reduce the hedging ratio, downstream enterprises can appropriately stock up or sell put options, and short - chasing is not recommended [5].

中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 How to Understand China Gold Tax Policy Change 中国黄金税收政策调整解读 | 朱善颖 | Zhu Shanying | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F03138401 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0021426 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 桂晨曦 | Gui Chenxi | 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 | 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z001363 | CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abs ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The EIA's October oil supply report confirmed the production and demand situation in the US in August. US crude oil production reached 1,379,400 barrels per day in August, a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, showing continuous production resilience and higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates. The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August, mainly due to a significant weakening of diesel demand, while gasoline and jet fuel demand continued their seasonal strength [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content - **Crude Oil Production**: In August, US crude oil production was 1,379,400 barrels per day, with a month - on - month increase of 86,000 barrels per day, and the production was higher than the EIA's previous weekly estimates [1]. - **Petroleum Product Demand**: The total demand for US petroleum products decreased against the seasonal trend in August. Diesel demand weakened significantly, while gasoline and jet fuel demand maintained seasonal strength [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - **Silver**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - **Aluminum**: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - **Zinc**: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - **Lead**: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - **Nickel**: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - **Tin**: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - **Soybean**: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - **Sugar**: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - **20 -号胶**: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - **COMEX - LME Copper**: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - **Brent - Dubai EFS**: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - **WTI - Brent**: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - **Natural Gas (TFU - HH)**: Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The expectation of supply contraction is increasing, and polysilicon is leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectation of supply contraction is increasing, with polysilicon leading the rise. In the long term, the expectation of supply contraction in silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **View**: With the arrival of the dry season, silicon prices are oscillating [3][6]. - **Information Analysis**: The spot price has small fluctuations, with the domestic inventory increasing by 0.6% month - on - month to 447,700 tons. The domestic monthly production in October was 452,000 tons, up 7.5% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 70,233 tons, down 8.4% month - on - month and up 7.7% year - on - year. The single - month photovoltaic new installation in September was 9.66GW, down 53.76% year - on - year [6]. - **Main Logic**: The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, while the northwest supply is stable with the possibility of further resumption. The demand from polysilicon in the southwest may decline slightly, the organic silicon market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts have been decreasing, providing some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **View**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and polysilicon prices are running at a high level [3][7]. - **Information Analysis**: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton. The export in September decreased by 53% year - on - year, and the import decreased by 49.46% year - on - year. Some southwest bases are reducing raw material input, with an expected affected capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7][8]. - **Main Logic**: The production in October is expected to remain high, and the supply will contract in November. The demand in the fourth quarter may weaken. The current supply - demand situation still has pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Supply speculation is fermenting repeatedly, and lithium prices are oscillating widely [3][10]. - **Information Analysis**: On November 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.86% to 82,280 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 26,819 lots to 909,910 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current supply and demand are both strong. The supply has been increasing, and there are small - scale supply - side disturbances. The apparent demand is good, and the social inventory is decreasing. Upstream enterprises can participate in hedging, and downstream enterprises should purchase as needed [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Group 4: Market Index - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 3, 2025, the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index was 2237.50 (+0.09%) [51]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, it was 424.76, with a daily increase of 0.78%, a 5 - day increase of 1.76%, a 1 - month increase of 6.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil is in a volatile pattern due to the co - existence of supply pressure and geopolitical risks. OPEC+ decided to continue increasing production in December 2025 but pause in Q1 2026. The high inventory and surplus supply are bearish factors, while strong refined - product crack spreads, geopolitical attacks on refineries are bullish factors [1]. - Liquid chemical products faced a significant decline on Monday. Ethylene glycol has a supply - surplus expectation, and the styrene - pure benzene market may continue to decline without major supply cuts or demand surges [2]. - Overall, crude oil will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and the chemical supply side still faces significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. Overseas crack spreads are strong, but domestic refinery profits are under pressure. OPEC+ is more cautious about increasing production, and oil prices may move from the bottom - seeking to the bottom - grinding stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Asphalt - **View**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, asphalt futures prices lack support. The absolute price of asphalt is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [8]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: As crude oil weakens, fuel oil futures prices are on the weak side. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decline in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It fluctuates with crude oil. It is supported by the rebound of gasoline and diesel crack spreads but faces negative factors such as weak shipping demand. It is expected to follow crude oil fluctuations with a relatively low valuation [9][10]. Methanol - **View**: Suppressed by the high - inventory reality in the near term, methanol fluctuates downward. Although the port inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory still has a suppressing effect, but there is still value in going long at low levels considering potential Iranian disturbances [24]. Urea - **View**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The high inventory restricts the upward space of futures prices, while coal costs provide support [25]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The expectation of supply surplus suppresses the market, and there is no fundamental positive support. With the return of integrated refineries and concentrated imports, the price is expected to decline in the medium - and long - term under the expectation of inventory accumulation [15][16][17]. PX - **View**: Although some plants are under reform and maintenance, PX supply is not affected. With strong supply and demand, the profit supports the price. It is expected to return to the cost - and - fundamental pricing logic in the short term and maintain range - bound trading [11]. PTA - **View**: The supply - demand drive is limited, the market negotiation fades, and the basis weakens slightly. The price is affected by cost and macro - sentiment fluctuations, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium term [11]. Short - Fiber - **View**: There is an expectation of weakening supply and demand, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream cost support is weak, and the downstream demand fails to keep up, so the price is expected to fluctuate with the upstream [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **View**: The cost provides no obvious guidance, the volatility narrows, and the trading atmosphere fades. The price follows the cost fluctuations, and the processing fee has stronger support during the factory production - reduction period [21]. Propylene - **View**: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term [29]. PP - **View**: With the decline in maintenance and high inventory pressure, it is expected to trade within a range. The decrease in maintenance leads to an increase in production, and the high - level inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the price [28]. Plastic - **View**: With the short - term decline in maintenance, it is expected to trade within a range. The supply pressure and weak fundamental support limit the price upside, and the profit support is also limited [27]. Styrene - **View**: There is still a concern about inventory swelling, and it fluctuates weakly. Although there are some disturbances in the cost - side pure benzene supply, it cannot reverse the situation, and the subsequent trend depends on crude oil [13]. PVC - **View**: The market sentiment cools down, and it fluctuates weakly. After the end of maintenance in early November, the production will increase, while the downstream demand is weak, and the export is also under pressure [30]. Caustic Soda - **View**: The supply - demand is under pressure, and the cost rises. The inventory continues to accumulate, and the price is weak. Attention should be paid to whether low profits can drive upstream production cuts [30]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring Energy Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. have different changes, which reflect the market's expectations for different contract periods of each variety [32]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of different varieties are presented, showing the relationship between spot and futures prices and the quantity of goods in storage [33]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The spreads between different varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc. are provided, which can be used to analyze the relative price relationships between different chemical products [34]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the basis and spread monitoring of multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, etc., but specific data and analysis are not fully presented in the provided content. 5. Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index is 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index is 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index is 2237.50 (+0.09%) [273]. - **Energy Index**: On November 3, 2025, the energy index was 1178.10, with a daily increase of 1.69%, a 5 - day increase of 0.79%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 4.06% [275].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repeatedly but relatively stable, and aluminum ingots are steadily making up for lost ground. In the medium - to - short - term, supply disruptions continue to support the prices of base metals, but macro support has weakened, leading to base metals rising and then falling. With the copper - aluminum ratio remaining above 4, opportunities for aluminum ingots to make up for lost ground can be continuously focused on. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [2]. - For individual metals: - Copper: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level and are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [8][9]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - Aluminum: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong [14][15]. - Zinc: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly [17]. - Lead: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating [18]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly [21][22]. - Tin: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and moderately strong [8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of November 3, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 1.75 tons to 20.01 tons. On October 30, Sino - US leaders met and agreed to strengthen cooperation in various fields [8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's rate cut has been implemented, and Powell's remarks are slightly hawkish, leading to short - term adjustments in copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, causing a decline in electrolytic copper production. On the demand side, the peak demand season has arrived, but inventory reduction is not obvious, and high prices are suppressing demand [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the comprehensive price of alumina in the north remained flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index decreased by 8.8 yuan to 2862.4 yuan. Affected by environmental control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to shut down 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8 [9][10]. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, high - cost production capacity has fluctuated, but supply contraction is not obvious, and the domestic market is still in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [10][11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations, with a medium - term outlook of the price center continuing to move up [12][13]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 21440 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area's aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged at 13.80 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 62.7 tons. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and will stop reducing the balance sheet from December 1. Sino - US leaders reached a consensus on tariff suspension [12]. - **Logic**: The macro environment remains positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and the start - up rate are at a high level, while overseas supply has continuous marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. The copper - aluminum ratio is above 4, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong in the short - term, with a medium - term outlook of price fluctuations [14][15]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October will reach about 2.2 million units, a 2% month - on - month decline [14][15]. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the shortage of scrap aluminum supply is difficult to change in the short - term. On the supply side, the weekly start - up rate has slightly increased, but some alloy plants face the risk of production reduction or suspension. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and automobile sales are resilient [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly, with a medium - to - long - term outlook of price decline [17]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the spot price of Shanghai 0 zinc was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main contract. As of November 3, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 16.17 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from last Thursday. A new earthquake occurred at the Xantho Extended ore body of the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, and the company withdrew its full - year zinc production guidance [17]. - **Logic**: The Sino - US economic and trade relationship shows a缓和 signal, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production enthusiasm. On the demand side, domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and demand expectations are average [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating moderately strong [18]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton, and the original - recycled price difference was 75 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17225 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 3.02 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from last Thursday. In November, the maintenance and resumption of production of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises are concurrent, and lead ingot inventory may increase [18]. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium and the original - recycled price difference are stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, while the production of primary lead smelters is decreasing. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories have temporarily reduced production, the overall start - up rate is high [18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - **Analysis**: On November 2, LME nickel inventory was 252750 tons, an increase of 648 tons from the previous trading day. Asian Battery Metals Company is actively exploring its copper - nickel and copper - gold project portfolio in Mongolia. Rongbai Technology has achieved ten - ton - level shipments of high - nickel and ultra - high - nickel all - solid - state cathode materials [20]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. The market is in a state of excess, and inventory is accumulating [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly, with an outlook of range - bound fluctuations [21][22]. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory is 73482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM's 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point. In October, stainless - steel production continued to increase, and social inventory slightly increased [21][22]. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chromium prices are falling, and the cost support for steel prices is weakening. Although production has increased, downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate during the off - season [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 56 tons to 5730 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 285400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market still exist, and the bottom support for tin prices is strengthening. In Wa State, production may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to be tight. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined tin, and inventory reduction has slowed down, limiting the upward space for tin prices [23]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 0.10% to 2250.33, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.02% to 2546.82, the industrial products index increased by 0.09% to 2237.50, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.15% to 1352.44 [146]. - **Sector Index**: On November 3, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.50% to 2494.27, with a 0.57% increase in the past 5 days, a 3.38% increase in the past month, and an 8.06% increase since the beginning of the year [147].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metal prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with a trading window in December. In the long run, the price center of gold is expected to move upward, and silver's price center is expected to follow gold's long - term upward trend [1][3][6]. - Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against US dollar credit risks, and the global central bank's gold - buying trend continues [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Logic - On Monday, precious metal prices oscillated. After the domestic market opened, prices fell slightly and then recovered. The domestic gold tax adjustment policy had little impact on the gold market, but some spot gold prices increased due to tax transfer after the reform [1][3]. - After the phased easing of trade frictions and the October interest - rate meeting, there is no significant driver for precious metal prices this month. In December, there may be a game around next year's interest - rate cut space. Personnel changes at the Fed may become a positive driving factor. In the long run, over - issued debt and de - globalization drive the decline of the US dollar's credit, making gold a good hedge [3][6]. 3.2 Key Information - According to a poll, 52% of US voters think the Republican Party is responsible for the government shutdown, 42% blame the Democratic Party, and 4% think both are responsible. The proportion blaming the Democratic Party is the highest in nearly 30 years [2]. - The US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy. Trump believes it is one of the most important rulings in the court's history and warns of serious consequences if he has to abandon the policy [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that parts of the US economy may be in recession due to high interest rates and called on the Fed to cut rates faster. Stephen Milan, a dovish Fed official, also called for more aggressive rate cuts [2]. 3.3 Market Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [3800, 4200], and London silver in the range of [46, 52] [6]. 3.4 Index Performance - On November 3, 2025, the composite index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), the industrial products index was 2237.50 (+0.09%), and the PPI commodity index was 1352.44 (+0.15%) [44]. - The precious metals index on November 3, 2025, was 3253.40, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.76%, a 1 - month increase of 7.80%, and a year - to - date increase of 47.05% [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].