Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it indicates that both platinum and palladium are expected to be "oscillating strongly" [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum is expected to oscillate strongly. The supply in South Africa faces power - supply and extreme - weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is in a structural expansion phase [1]. - With tariff - expectation disturbances and rising geopolitical risks, palladium is also expected to oscillate strongly. Although the long - term supply - demand for palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, with a 3.67% increase [1]. - The main logic for the strong - oscillation outlook is the resurgence of concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks, and the uncertainty of the US "233" clause on key minerals. In the future, South Africa's supply risks persist, and the demand in the platinum market is expanding in multiple fields [1]. Palladium Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 495.5 yuan/gram, with a 1.60% increase [1]. - The market expected a 50% high - tariff on palladium from the US on January 10, which led to a supply shortage in non - US regions. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term spot shortages and Fed's potential rate cuts support the price [1][2]. Index Information - On January 14, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures is not detailed. The special indexes include the Commodity Index (2448.62, +0.96%), Commodity 20 Index (2809.04, +1.08%), Industrial Products Index (2362.72, +0.62%), and PPI Commodity Index (1466.29, +0.70%) [47]. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 14, 2026, had a daily increase of 1.52%, a 5 - day increase of 2.83%, a 1 - month increase of 11.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.17% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On January 14, equity index futures traded mixed, CGB futures steadied, and most commodities edged higher, with silver, tin, and fuel oil leading the gains [12][13][14] - Against high supply risks and low industrial chain inventories, tin prices are forecast to trend strongly upward; silver is expected to maintain an overall oscillating and upward trend with high volatility; the market logic for high - sulfur fuel oil is complex with both bearish and bullish factors [21][27][33] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - Equity index futures: IM rose 0.1% and IC rose 0.9% [12][14] - CGB futures: TL rose 0.0% and T rose 0.1% [12][14] - Commodity futures: Top gainers were silver (8.0% rise, 3.0% month - on - month open interest increase), tin (8.0% rise, 1.1% month - on - month open interest decrease), and fuel oil (6.1% rise, 7.9% month - on - month open interest increase); top decliners were lithium carbonate (3.5% fall, 1.7% month - on - month open interest decrease), sodium hydroxide (2.3% drop, 11.1% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (2.1% decline, 1.7% month - on - month open interest increase) [13][14][15] 1.2 Daily Rose 1.2.1 Tin - On January 14, tin rose 8.0% to 413,170 yuan/ton. Supply disruptions in Wa region, Indonesia, and Africa have led to tight ore supply, and low tin concentrate processing fees have restricted refined tin output growth. Meanwhile, demand from semiconductors, PV, and NEVs, along with inventory restocking needs, will drive tin ingot demand growth. Overall, tin prices are expected to trend strongly upward [18][20][21] 1.2.2 Silver - On January 14, silver rose 8.0% to 22,763 yuan/kg. In a high - volatility environment, financial attributes dominate short - term pricing. Inflation decline has supported silver's financial attributes, and speculative capital participation has amplified price elasticity. After the digestion of index weight adjustment disruptions, silver is expected to maintain an overall oscillating and upward trend, with high volatility potentially persisting [24][25][27] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On January 14, fuel oil rose 6.1% to 2586 yuan/ton. The OPEC+ group will suspend production hikes in Q1, and Venezuela's oil transfer to the US will increase heavy oil supply, pressuring high - sulfur fuel oil in the medium - to - long - term. Iran's gas supply suspension to Iraq may lead to Iraq resuming fuel oil - fired power generation. High floating storage in the Asia - Pacific and the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in the Middle East are bearish factors. However, the widening asphalt - fuel oil spread may boost fuel oil processing demand [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The US relaxed regulatory rules on exports of NVIDIA H200 chips to China on January 13 local time, with sales subject to US Department of Commerce review and security screening, and fees will be collected from relevant transactions [36][38] - China's total goods trade import and export value in 2025 reached RMB 45.47 trillion, up 3.8% year - on - year, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. Exports were RMB 26.99 trillion, up 6.1% year - on - year, and imports were RMB 18.48 trillion, up 0.5% year - on - year, keeping China as the world's second - largest import market for 17 straight years [37][38] 2.2 Industry News - Approved by the CSRC, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100% [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude - tanker market in 2025 was strong but recently had a sharp correction. The Middle - East–Far East TD3C route's daily rent averaged $57,500, up 64.7% YoY, and seaborne crude demand grew solidly. The supply of the tanker fleet was tight, and sanctions and floating storage were short - term swing factors. The global crude - tanker capacity rose only 0.7%. Mid - term supply is expected to remain tight, with sanctions and storage adding near - term tension. The Venezuelan affair is a short - term negative, but geopolitical risk premium underpins freight fundamentals [1][3]. - The 2026 outlook for the crude - tanker market is volatile but still tilted to the upside. Although freight rates have corrected sharply, global liftings should rebound after the Middle - East Ramadan, and tonnage scarcity due to sanctions will persist. Geopolitical flare - ups can increase market volatility [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The crude - tanker market soared in 2025H2 and then quickly retreated. The average annual daily hire rate still showed a sharp year - on - year increase. Since September 2025, the market was exceptionally strong, with daily rates peaking at $141,300/day. In 2025, the average VLCC daily charter rate on the Middle East–Far East TD3C route reached $57,491, up 64.7% year - on - year. Since Q4, the market was robust but has fallen rapidly lately. In early January, the VLCC downtrend continued, sliding 36.5% week - on - week, and Suezmax and Aframax rates also turned lower [9][34]. 3.2 Demand - Seaborne crude demand in 2026 is expected to be slightly stronger than in 2025, with global volumes reaching a high - level plateau. In 2025, global crude shipped by sea reached 2.17 billion tonnes, up 4.2% year - on - year. OPEC+ indicated that Q1 2026 output will be flat. The Ukraine conflict has had a limited net impact on Russian crude exports. South American shipments grew 6.1% in 2025, while North America and Africa had modest gains. China's crude - import demand picked up in H2 2025 [12][37]. - Venezuelan exports may face short - term disruptions. In the first eleven months of 2025, Venezuela's crude output stood at 0.93 mb/d, about 0.9% of global supply. Average seaborne exports in 2025 were roughly 0.75 mb/d, equal to 1.7% of world crude trade. China and the US are the main destinations, taking about 50% and 15% respectively. Since Q4 2025, the US has tightened sanctions on Venezuelan oil [13][37]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Fleet Growth and Aging - In 2025, the global crude - tanker fleet grew only 0.7%, and the average age of VLCC reached 13.29 years old. Owners are cautious about ordering new ships due to the net - zero timetable. There are currently 909 VLCCs, totaling 280 million dwt, with 156 on order (17.2% of existing capacity), but near - term deliveries are limited. About one - third of VLCC tonnage is over 15 years old, and the average age will keep rising, reducing fleet productivity [14][38]. 3.3.2 Sanctioned Tanker Fleet and Floating - Storage Tonnage - The share of sanctioned tonnage is approaching 20%. In 2025, the US and EU tightened measures on ships carrying Russian, Venezuelan, or Iranian oil. As of 15 Dec 2025, 1,746 ships were on sanctions lists, with tankers being the dominant segment. The US has shifted from corporate to individual/entity designations, making penalties more precise [18][40]. - Floating storage has fluctuated. A build - up in October lifted spot rates in November, but the total has since fallen back. The global floating - storage count peaked around Week 50, declined into year - end, and edged up again in early January. Far - East floating stocks remain elevated, but the support to freight from stored barrels is waning. Part of Venezuela's output is held afloat, and floating - storage levels should be closely watched in 2026. If crude prices retreat, more tankers could be used for storage, boosting freight rates [19][20][40]. 3.3.3 Ship Speed and Canal Transit - The fleet sailed faster in Q4. The average VLCC speed reached 11.86 kn in December, rising steadily since mid - year, while Aframax speed averaged 10.82 kn, remaining flat. Higher rates encouraged owners to turn ships faster, releasing extra supply, but speeds have edged back recently [23][45]. - Ship volumes passing through the Suez Canal remain low, while Panama Canal traffic is normal. In 2025, the Panama Canal had an average of 85 tanker transits (8.92 million dwt) per month, back to 2023 levels but below 2022. Crude - tanker passages in the Suez Canal totaled 1,950 ships in 2025, down 9.7% vs 2024 and 35.1% vs 2023. If tankers return to the Suez Canal in 2026, it could weigh on freight and cut overall tonne - mile demand [24][45]. 3.4 Venezuela Situation 3.4.1 Shipping Pattern - Venezuelan exports are mainly transported by VLCCs, and 120 tankers regularly call at the country's ports. State - owned PDVSA is the major exporter, shipping from the northern and eastern terminals. These 120 vessels represent 6.3% of the world VLCC fleet, 1.0% of Suezmaxes, 2.0% of Aframaxes, and 2.6% of Panamaxes. Most cargoes go to the Far East, so VLCCs dominate the trade [25][26][46]. 3.4.2 Market Impact - The tanker market will suffer in the short term, but there is uncertainty about the floating capacity and volume. The immediate fall in Venezuelan liftings cuts long - haul VLCC demand, which is a short - term negative. Replacement barrels will come from the Middle East, West Africa, or South America, slightly shortening average hauls. However, the effective shortage of tonnage due to sanctions remains, and the market's risk premium and tight supply fundamentals are intact [30][49]. 3.5 Outlook - Seaborne crude demand is expected to grow steadily. In 2026, global volumes should remain at a high level. OPEC+ output is flat in the near term, and Russian flows are only marginally affected. West - African and North - American liftings have eased seasonally, causing a short lull. The pace of Venezuela's crude/fuel - oil comeback is unclear. High onshore stocks in China and a weaker products crack are slowing import appetite, leading to less spot cargo and downward pressure on freight. Global seaborne - crude growth in 2026 is projected at 1–2%. - Supply is likely to stay tight. The share of sanctioned tonnage is rising, floating storage is increasing, and Ukraine has stepped up strikes on Russian tankers. Fleet growth is minimal, and ageing is reducing operating efficiency. Even if the Russia–Ukraine war ends in 2026, trade - flow shifts will largely persist. A sharper oil - price retreat would increase storage demand and tighten tanker availability further. - In summary, the market will dip in the near term, but 2026 fundamentals remain strong. The Venezuelan affair has reduced long - haul VLCC demand for now, but the timing of volume rebound and its impact on floating storage are uncertain, leaving a geopolitical risk premium. The crude - tanker market is expected to regain strength around March after the current correction [31][32][50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US economic data shows a cooling trend, and the Fed's independence is under concern. Key events to watch include the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariffs, US CPI data, the nomination of the new Fed chair, and Q4 GDP data [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve moderately, with a focus on investment. The 12 - month PMI and price data have shown mild improvements. The "price commitment" for Chinese EV exports to the EU is a positive for new - energy vehicle manufacturers [8]. - Asset views: Recommend long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. Silver should be treated as a standard allocation in the short - term and overweighted when volatility stabilizes [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index and Bond Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting for incremental funds. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. Short - term outlook is oscillatory [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - end sentiment remains weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on the implementation of monetary policy [9]. 3.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: With smooth expectations of liquidity easing and resurgent geopolitical conflicts, short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical trends [9]. - **Silver**: Tight spot supply structure, sensitive to liquidity and driven by the pro - cyclical trend. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and geopolitical trends [9]. 3.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Near - term support from pre - Spring Festival shipments, long - term focus on the risk of shipping line resumptions. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on shipping line resumption plans, long - term contract freight rates, and pre - Spring Festival cargo volume [9]. 3.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Inventory is starting to accumulate, and the price has fallen after a rise. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is strong, but inventory pressure is building. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on overseas mine production and shipments, domestic iron - water production, weather, port inventory, and policy [9]. - **Coke**: Rigid demand has increased significantly, but the fifth price increase has failed. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on steel production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand structure has improved, and prices have rebounded. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market supply and demand are both weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost bottom has risen, but de - stocking pressure remains. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Production has decreased, and demand is weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has increased significantly, and supply exceeds demand. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on soda ash inventory [9]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory is continuously accumulating, and the price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, Fed policy, domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [9]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and prices are under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on ore production resumption, electrolytic aluminum production resumption, and extreme market trends [9]. - **Aluminum**: Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and the price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [9]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the price rebound is limited. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on macro - risk and zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: Downstream purchasing willingness has improved, and the price may stop falling and stabilize. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply disruptions and battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel ore RKAB, and the price has rebounded. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and supply [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the nickel price rebound, the stainless - steel price has recovered. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on Indonesian policy risks and demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and the price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price has recovered. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply - side production resumption and policy changes [9]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and the price is highly volatile. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on supply - side production resumption and domestic photovoltaic policy [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory de - stocking has slowed down, and the price is under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on demand, supply disruptions, and technological breakthroughs [9]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to the Iranian risk. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on OPEC+ production policy and geopolitical situation [11]. - **LPG**: The strong - reality situation is weakening. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range. Short - term outlook is downward, depending on sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Pressured by Venezuelan heavy oil, the fuel oil futures price has fallen. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Inventory pressure is significant, and MTO demand is weak. Short - term outlook is oscillatory downward, depending on macro - energy, Middle - East situation, and overseas production shutdown [11]. - **Urea**: Actual transactions have slowed down. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on coal prices, downstream replenishment, and enterprise inventory [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas arrivals are concentrated, and inventory capacity is tight. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on coal and oil prices and port inventory [11]. - **PX**: Polyester demand weakness puts pressure on upstream raw materials. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil price fluctuations, macro - changes, and polyester production cuts [11]. - **PTA**: Polyester production cuts are concentrated, and basis and processing fees are under pressure. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on crude oil price fluctuations, macro - changes, and polyester load [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Fluctuations have narrowed, and sales are stable. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on downstream yarn - mill purchasing and demand around the Spring Festival [11]. - **Bottle Chip**: More plant overhauls in January, and profit support has increased. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on bottle - chip enterprise production cut targets and shipping costs [11]. - **Propylene**: Some downstream industries have resumed production. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [11]. - **PP**: Commodity sentiment is positive, and overhauls have decreased slightly. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Plastic**: Macro - factors boost, but downstream transactions have decreased. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Styrene**: Driven by exports and positive commodity sentiment, the price is oscillating upward. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on oil prices, macro - policy, and plant operations [11]. - **PVC**: Supported by short - term "export rush". Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Low - valued and with weak expectations, the price is running weakly. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on market sentiment, production, and demand [11]. 3.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The USDA report is relatively bearish. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand [11]. - **Protein Meal**: There are both bullish and bearish factors. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and trade wars [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The price is oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on demand, macro - situation, and weather [11]. - **Pig**: Supply and demand are both increasing. Short - term outlook is oscillatory, depending on farming sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Natural Rubber**: Follows the macro - trading logic. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on产区 weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating at a high level. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in an oscillatory adjustment period. Short - term outlook is oscillatory upward, depending on production and demand [11]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price is oscillating horizontally, and supply pressure is increasing. Short - term outlook is oscillatory downward, depending on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [11].

原油价格于1月13日晚间大幅走高，此前美国加大对伊朗施压，同时 在俄罗斯黑海沿岸一个对于哈萨克斯坦原油至关重要的装运码头附近有油 轮遭到袭击。美国总统特朗普宣布，对与伊朗"做生意"的国家的商品加 征25%关税，并且不排除对这个波斯湾国家实施军事打击。期权市场也显 示出油价可能飙升的风险，交易员对看涨合约要求的溢价，已达到自以色 列和美国2025年对伊朗发动空袭以来的最高水平。伊朗和俄罗斯的地缘因 素是近期原油市场的主要关注点。 板块逻辑： 化工与原油的节奏略有不同，估值修复导致此轮化工反弹先于原油。 随着化工品利润的修复，后期需要关注装置开工率的提升情况，以PTA和 苯乙烯为例，当前产业中大部分装置都实现盈利。塑料期价持续反弹，本 周以来塑料的基差也由负转正，产业链的下游和终端都在积极补库；进口 套利窗口打开后，美金货源也报价走高，而当前美金低价货源有限。下游 需求淡季逐步来临，但并没有超越季节性的利空，塑料可能会延续震荡格 局。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 原油：地缘持续扰动，关注伊朗风险 沥青：沥青期价处于高估区间震荡 高硫燃油：委内瑞拉重油施压，燃油期价震荡 低硫燃油：低硫燃油期价震 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2026, the US core inflation was lower than expected, and the environment of declining real interest rates continued. Meanwhile, political and judicial uncertainties surrounding the Fed's independence repeatedly fermented, making the US dollar credit and policy credibility core variables in market pricing. Precious metals remained strong under both macro and institutional logics [1]. - After digesting the phased disturbances of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight adjustment, gold and silver maintained an overall oscillating and strengthening pattern under the resonance of long - term expectations of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and resource security concerns [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - Global central banks collectively supported Jerome Powell, and central banks such as the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada jointly emphasized that central bank independence is the cornerstone of financial stability, highlighting the rapidly increasing systemic concerns in the market about the weakening of the Fed's monetary autonomy [2]. - The Iranian domestic protests escalated into a high - intensity humanitarian risk event, with the death toll possibly reaching thousands, and there were warnings of large - scale extra - judicial executions, further amplifying political and security uncertainties in the Middle East [2]. - Under the continuous pressure from the US, Iran showed signs of releasing seized oil tankers. A tanker seized two years ago appeared off the coast of Oman, indicating a marginal easing of geopolitical games, but energy channel and sanctions risks were still repetitive [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: The decline in inflation provided a fundamental buffer, and institutional uncertainties increased the risk premium. In December, the US core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, remaining at a four - year low, showing a continuous cooling of the inflation trend. While the inflation constraint was marginally relieved, market doubts about the Fed's independence and future interest rate paths persisted, driving the "Sell America" trading to return periodically. The financial attributes and credit hedging value of gold strengthened simultaneously. Short - term gold prices changed hands more frequently near historical highs, but under the support of the expectation of declining real interest rates and central bank allocation demand, the correction was more likely to be rhythmic rather than trend - changing [3]. - **Silver**: It had an advantage in elasticity in a high - volatility environment, and its financial attributes dominated short - term pricing. Against the background of the strong performance of gold, silver continued its high - volatility characteristics. The decline in inflation reduced the expectation of tightening, providing support for the financial attributes of silver. At the same time, the previous structural tightness and high participation of speculative funds significantly amplified the elasticity of silver prices. Technical corrections after the amplification of short - term fluctuations should be vigilant, but before the macro - environment underwent a substantial reversal, the relative performance of silver remained strong [3]. Outlook - The central price of gold is expected to continue to rise, with the London Gold price to be monitored in the range of [4900 - 5000] US dollars per ounce. Silver may continue its high - volatility state, and the London Silver price should be monitored in the range of [90 - 100] US dollars per ounce. Attention should be paid to the phased retracement risks in the context of amplified fluctuations [4]. Index Information - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [46]. - **Sector Index**: On January 13, 2026, the precious metals index was 4222.51, with a daily increase of 0.15%, a five - day increase of 4.75%, a one - month increase of 15.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.41% [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down, and the industry is mainly in an oscillatory operation. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for coking coal and coke has increased, and the spot price of coke has started to rise. However, in January, coal mines resumed production, and Mongolian coal imports rebounded to a high level, so the high - supply pressure still exists, and the futures prices have corrected from high levels. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory restricts the upward space. In the off - season, demand has seasonally weakened. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel end has become more obvious, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate, suppressing the valuation of the steel futures market. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, and there are expected disturbances on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both the supply and demand sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price has weakened, but the futures market still shows resilience. Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and arrivals are expected to remain at a high level. The demand side has a mixed situation of blast furnace maintenance and resumption, and the inventory pressure is still accumulating [1][7]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventories are relatively high, and restocking has slowed down. However, the profit of electric furnaces is acceptable, and the daily consumption is at a high level, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, leading steel enterprises in East China announced a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the spot price will follow the increase [1][8]. 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually begins, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive the entry of spot - futures and speculative demand for procurement, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, and the spot price increase is expected to be implemented. The futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [2]. - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be alleviated, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum [2]. 3. Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of manganese silicon continues, the upstream has great pressure to destock, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure from hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is still expected to gradually fall back to the cost valuation [2]. - **Silicon Iron**: Currently, the supply and demand of the silicon iron market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, it is expected that the futures price will follow the sector [2]. 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disturbances in the supply, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in oversupply. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [2][14]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [2][14]. 5. Steel - The cost provides support, but the inventory suppresses. The futures market oscillates. The spot market trading is weak, and the demand has seasonally weakened. The overall steel inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and fundamental contradictions have begun to gradually accumulate [7]. 6. Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down 0.28%; the industrial product index was 2348.14, down 0.52% [106]. - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On January 13, 2026, the steel industry chain index was 2024.77, with a daily decline of 0.75%, a decline of 0.72% in the past 5 days, an increase of 6.09% in the past month, and an increase of 2.47% since the beginning of the year [108].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [7]. - The investment rating for stock index options is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [7]. - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "oscillating" [8]. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Stock index futures: The end of the 17 - day consecutive rise is due to capital release, but the mid - term optimistic logic remains unchanged. Short - term profit - taking pressure increases, but such corrections are normal capital release during the upward trend. The logic of betting on policy expectations and industrial prosperity before the Two Sessions continues, with a focus on IC long positions and双创ETF [1][7]. - Stock index options: Market sentiment cools slightly under market rotation. The trading volume of the options market decreases slightly, and the implied volatility of most varieties drops slightly. The strategy of buying call options on previously high - heat varieties during corrections can be changed to a bull spread combination [2][7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market continues to recover, but attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. The capital side shows a slight convergence, and the short - end may be affected by the capital side. The adjustment of the stock market may drive the long - end bond market, and institutional allocation motivation may support the bond market [3][8][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - Market performance: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index ended its 17 - day consecutive rise with a decline, and trading volume reached a new high. The basis, inter - period spread, and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM changed [1][7]. - Logic: Short - term profit - taking pressure comes from historical patterns, abnormal trading inquiries, and contract premiums. However, the mid - term trading logic remains intact, with sector rotation [1][7]. - Operation suggestions: Allocate IC long positions and双创ETF [7]. Stock Index Options - Market performance: The underlying market took a high - level rest on Tuesday. The overall trading volume of the options market decreased slightly, and trading heat shifted to 50 and 300. The implied volatility of most varieties declined slightly [2][7]. - Logic: Market sentiment cooled under capital rotation, and relevant indicator changes were opposite to those on Monday [2][7]. - Operation suggestions: Hold bull spread positions [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. T, TF, TS, and TL had different changes in trading volume, positions, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and basis. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and had a net capital withdrawal [8][9]. - Logic: The short - end TS was relatively weak. The approaching tax period may cause capital side fluctuations, and the stock market adjustment may drive the bond market, especially the long - end. Institutional allocation motivation may support the bond market [3][8][10]. - Operation suggestions: Trend strategy is to oscillate. Hedging strategy is to pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy is basis oscillation. Curve strategy is to consider taking profits on short - term curve steepening [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On January 13, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 605.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of -3.2%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 483.25 yuan/gram, with a decline of -5.22% [3] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. The supply in South Africa faces risks, while the demand in the platinum market is expanding, and the "rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase price elasticity [3] - Affected by tariff expectations and geopolitical risks, palladium prices are expected to fluctuate widely but trend upward. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3][4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Platinum Analysis - The main logic is that concerns about the Fed's independence and geopolitical risks have flared up again, and the "233" clause of the US Department of Commerce on critical minerals has no further news. Short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and then consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of supply, South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. In terms of demand, the platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding demand in jewelry and investment [3] - The outlook is that platinum prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations [3] Palladium Analysis - The main logic is that the market expected the US to impose a 50% high - tariff on palladium on January 10. Palladium is being shipped to the US, intensifying non - US supply shortages. The policy has not been implemented yet, and short - term price fluctuations may intensify. It is recommended to trade cautiously and wait for price stabilization to consider low - buying opportunities [3] - In terms of demand, palladium shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, short - term spot shortages and the Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [3] - The outlook is that palladium prices are expected to fluctuate upward due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [4] Commodity Index - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2425.27, down - 0.30%; the commodity 20 index was 2779.12, down - 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2348.14, down - 0.52% [50] Non - ferrous Metals Index - On January 13, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2809.16, with a daily decline of -1.33%, a 5 - day decline of -1.30%, a 1 - month increase of +8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of +4.59% [52]

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of pre - export surges and the anticipation of improved supply - demand dynamics are driving up the prices of base metals. In the short and medium term, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and concerns about supply disruptions remains unchanged. There are opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, and tin at low prices. In the long term, the potential for incremental stimulus policies in China and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin suggest a positive outlook for their prices [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply disruptions are increasing, and copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: The US CPI in December 2026 was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at a record low of $0/ton and $0 cents/pound. In December, China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper mine in Chile will go on strike, and the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador has been postponed. - **Logic**: The Fed may continue its loose policy, which supports copper prices. Copper supply is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although demand is currently weak, the long - term supply - demand outlook is optimistic [7][8]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the alumina spot price in the north was flat, while the national weighted index and prices in some regions declined. The alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply reduction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory accumulation trend, and the cost support is limited. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased slightly, and the premium increased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in major consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased. Some enterprises are promoting the "aluminum for copper" standard, and a company is transferring its production capacity. - **Logic**: The US interest - rate cut expectation remains, and China's "two new" policies are continuing. The supply is constrained in the medium term, and although high prices have suppressed demand in the short term, the overall supply - demand outlook is positive [13][14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of Baotai ADC12 was flat. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project has started production. - **Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The supply is constrained by raw material shortages and policy factors, while the demand is expected to improve with the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy. The inventory shows a mixed trend [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and zinc prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia is damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is relatively stable. The zinc ore supply is short - term tight, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high, but there is a downward risk in the long term [17][20]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector has cooled, and social inventory has accumulated, leading to a downward trend in lead prices. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the price of SMM 1 lead ingots decreased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. - **Logic**: The spot premium and the price difference between primary and recycled lead are stable. The supply is increasing as smelters resume production, while the demand is weakening, especially in the electric bicycle sector [22]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Policy expectations are conflicting with the weak reality, and nickel prices have回调. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and LME nickel inventory decreased. SMM predicts a significant increase in the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore in the second half of January. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. The policy on Indonesian nickel ore quotas is uncertain, which affects the market outlook [23][24]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The decline in nickel prices has led to a downward trend in the stainless - steel market. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 has a certain premium. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the HPM of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore is expected to rise. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel has some support. Although the production in January may increase slightly, the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season [25]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply constraints are intensifying, and tin prices are expected to be strong. - **Analysis**: On January 13, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, while the SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 tin ingots increased. - **Logic**: Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are limiting tin production. The demand for tin is increasing in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle sectors, and the low inventory in the industry chain also supports prices [26][27]. Market Index Monitoring - On January 13, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.30% to 2425.27, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.28% to 2779.12, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.52% to 2348.14. - The non - ferrous metals index on January 13 was 2809.16, with a daily decline of 1.33%, a 5 - day decline of 1.30%, a 1 - month increase of 8.87%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.59% [150][152].