Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "oscillation" [7]. Core Viewpoints - At the beginning of this week, the macro and policy fronts "paused", and the subsequent inventory pressure corresponding to the high arrival of iron ore made the iron ore price relatively under pressure. After entering November, the molten iron output will decline seasonally, weakening the demand support for the furnace charge end. However, seasonal production cuts rather than negative - feedback production cuts will put relatively limited downward pressure on the prices of industrial chain varieties. If the macro and policy levels release positive news later, it will still support the prices of sector varieties [1][2]. - The fundamentals of the industrial chain will gradually weaken marginally. Since the decline in molten iron is mainly due to the seasonal production cuts of steel enterprises, the negative feedback on sector varieties is limited. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of macro and policy introduction and pay attention to phased upward opportunities [7]. Summary by Directory Iron Element - The arrival rhythm of iron ore is significantly disturbed, and the port inventory is rapidly accumulating. The fundamentals of iron ore are not optimistic, but the decline of ore price is limited. The scrap steel fundamentals have no prominent contradictions, and it is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate following the finished products in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - The cost support for coke continues to strengthen, and the third round of price increase is expected to be implemented. However, under the pressure on both coking and steel mill profits, the price is expected to oscillate. The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve, and the short - term fundamentals are healthy, with the price expected to oscillate [2]. Alloy - The high steel output and stable cost support the prices of ferromanganese - silicon and ferrosilicon in the short term, but the supply of ferromanganese - silicon is expected to remain high, with inventory pressure and limited upward driving force. The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is relatively loose, suppressing the upward price space [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Some production lines in the Shahe area stopped production, and the supply side faces short - term downward risks. If the production and sales remain weak, the price will return to weak oscillation. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to decline oscillating. The over - supply pattern of soda ash remains unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [3]. Specific Product Analysis Steel - The spot market trading is weak, and the speculative sentiment is poor. The molten iron output declines, the five major steel products output increases, the demand continues to recover, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The short - term market is expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to the macro - policy and supply disturbances [9]. Iron Ore - The spot price has weakened significantly. Overseas mine shipments decreased, and arrivals increased significantly. The demand for molten iron decreased, and the port inventory accumulated rapidly. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Scrap Steel - The supply is slightly tight, the overall daily consumption decreases, and the inventory is de - stocked. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate following the finished products [11]. Coke - The cost support is strengthening, and the third - round price increase is expected to be implemented. However, both coking and steel mill profits are under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Coking Coal - The supply is difficult to improve, and the downstream and middle - stream procurement is continuous. The coal mine inventory has reached a low level in recent years, and the short - term price is expected to oscillate [14]. Glass - The short - term supply may decline, but the demand is weak, and the middle - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The short - term price may return to weak oscillation, and in the long term, it is expected to decline oscillating [15]. Soda Ash - The supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the industry is at the bottom of the cycle. The cost support is strengthened, and the price bottom support is strong. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the macro situation, with the long - term price center of gravity moving down [16][17]. Ferromanganese - Silicon - The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price. However, the supply is expected to remain high, the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve, and the upward driving force for the price is insufficient [18]. Ferrosilicon - The high steel output and increased cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, suppressing the upward price space [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex and diversified trend with different products having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, the prices of some products are affected by supply - demand relationships, trade policies, and weather conditions [1][6][7]. - Different agricultural products are expected to have different trends in the future, such as some products are expected to be volatile, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to have upward potential [6][7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**：走势分化，棕油情绪偏弱。美豆上涨但美豆油下跌，国内油脂走势分化，菜油反弹、豆油抗跌、棕油偏弱。宏观环境复杂，产业端美豆数据暂停更新，巴西大豆种植顺利，国内进口大豆到港量或处同期较高水平，马棕10月继续累库概率大，印尼棕油库存低位，印度植物油进口或季节性下降，国内菜油供应预期回升 [6]. - **展望**：棕油震荡偏弱，菜油震荡偏弱，豆油震荡。主要驱动因素包括马棕累库预期、印度植物油进口季节性下降、巴西豆种植顺利、国内菜油供应预期回升、进口大豆成本抬升 [6]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**：中加关系扰动，菜粕大幅上涨。国际上，美豆出口预期受提振，巴西豆旧作10月出口量下调，新作播种进度同比偏快，阿根廷豆播种开启；国内短期油厂开机率回落，库存回升，中期采购、天气和消费旺季决定上涨高度，长期预计2025年四季度和2026年一季度大豆供需无缺口，中加关系或缓和。中加关税预期变化引发资金做多菜粕 [7]. - **展望**：美豆震荡、连粕震荡。豆粕价格受成本等因素驱动上涨，榨利修复抑制盘面，期价回调风险加大。建议豆粕1 - 5反套持有，看涨买权止盈，看跌卖权持有 [7]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：港口支撑盘面上行。国内玉米价格涨跌不一，港口受期货上涨影响价格上调，近期东北玉米集中上市，运输运力瓶颈对价格有支撑，但后续现货价格仍存在压力 [9][10]. - **展望**：震荡。短期观望为主 [10]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**：猪源充裕，价格走弱。短期二育栏舍利用率增加但猪价反弹抑制二育情绪，集团场出栏节奏偏快；中期预计四季度生猪出栏量继续增加；长期能繁母猪产能开始去化，供应压力将在2026年下半年逐步减轻 [10][11]. - **展望**：震荡偏弱。近月端生猪处在高位产能兑现期，价格弱势运行；远月端受去产能预期支撑，关注反套策略机会 [11]. 3.1.5. 天然橡胶 - **观点**：反弹告一段落，等待新的指引。天胶先跌后涨，维持底部横盘震荡调整格局，RU仓单持续注销，新胶注册进度慢，估值低，11月进口压力或对NR上方形成压力，短期RU - NR价差或修复，近期涨跌受宏观影响大 [12][13]. - **展望**：胶价维持底部震荡高弹性走势，单边难有趋势性行情，短期关注做扩RU - NR价差 [13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**：原料持续走弱，盘面创上市新低。主要因原料丁二烯价格快速探底，市场供需矛盾激化，下游买盘谨慎，市场供应面持续承压，年底前两个月丁二烯供需依旧偏过剩 [15][16]. - **展望**：基本面与原料端压力均较大，在丁二烯出现明显供需矛盾之前，盘面建议逢高布空 [16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**：可预期利多多已消化，棉价短期继续上行动力减弱。宏观面贸易关系转好，盘面逻辑回归基本面，国内供给端新棉集中上市，需求端棉纺需求边际减弱，估值端对01合约有支撑但主力合约上行受限 [16][17]. - **展望**：短期01合约区间震荡；长期25/26年度中国棉花年度平衡表可能去库，带动棉价上行，震荡偏强 [17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**：糖价反弹，但高度有限。国际市场巴西双周产量高峰期已过，但北半球进入开榨高峰期，国际糖价下行压力不改；国内市场近期反弹因进口管控趋严，但基本面无其它利多，南方糖开榨后供应量增多，内盘也有下行压力 [17][18]. - **展望**：中长期震荡偏弱，操作上维持反弹空思路，糖价运行区间参考5400 - 5500元/吨 [18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**：下游涨价预期驱动盘面上涨，上涨空间仍需谨慎。期货上涨，现货成交好转，针叶价格普涨，但纸浆此前交易的利空未完全结束，下游需求利多带来的上涨空间预计不高，同时也存在一些利多因素 [19][20]. - **展望**：震荡。仓单及弱供需主导市场，但废纸浆变化或带来异动，纸浆期货偏向观望 [20]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸跟随纸浆走强。新增装置生产逐步趋稳，纸张供应过剩，需求端出版招标开始但社会面订单未见明显提振，部分工厂产销压力较大，纸企发布涨价计划但市场观望情绪浓厚 [21][22]. - **展望**：单边策略维持观望。关注新驱动对资金情绪的影响 [22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**：上下两难，底部震荡。市场对利空交易充分，信息面海运费用升水挤出，基本面转弱，港口到货集中，集成材销售成交下降，新西兰原木外盘报价有调整，后期到船蓝变材压力大，但原木估值不高，江苏市场库存相对偏低 [24]. - **展望**：原木基本面转弱，现货存下跌，信息面博弈反复，近期底部区间震荡 [25]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 The report only lists the categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - **综合 Index**：The commodity 20 index is 2546.82, up 0.02%; the industrial products index is 2237.50, up 0.09%; the PPI commodity index is 1352.44, up 0.15% [182]. - **板块指数 - 农产品指数**：On November 3, 2025, it was 927.07, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a decrease of 0.40% in the past 5 days, a decrease of 2.07% in the past month, and a decrease of 2.90% since the beginning of the year [183].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock market is tentatively in a volatile phase, while the bond market may receive a boost. Specifically, the stock index futures showed a V-shaped reversal, the stock index options were dominated by out-of-the-money call selling, and the bond market curve flattened [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The market showed a V-shaped reversal. The all-A index rose 0.39% with trading volume slightly exceeding 2.1 trillion. Coal, oil and gas, and building products led the gains. The dividend index and micro-cap index were dominant, and the dumbbell structure outperformed the market recently. November is a volatile period, and it is recommended to shift technology funds to the price increase chain and continue the dumbbell configuration. The operation suggestion is to hold IM + dividend index [3][9]. Stock Index Options - The market was dominated by out-of-the-money call selling. The underlying market opened lower in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. The option market turnover was 911.2 million yuan, a 11.72% decrease from the previous day. It is recommended to maintain the covered call strategy [4][9]. Bond Futures - The bond market curve flattened. Most bond futures closed down, with the long end performing better. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on the overall loose liquidity. The decline in the October manufacturing PMI supported the long end of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will be volatile and slightly stronger. Operation suggestions include trend strategy (volatile and slightly stronger), hedging strategy (focus on long substitution at high basis), basis strategy (focus on positive arbitrage opportunities and basis widening), and curve strategy (focus on curve steepening) [5][10][11]. 2. Economic Calendar - The report lists the economic data release schedule for the week, including China's October SPGI manufacturing PMI (actual value 50.6, previous value 51.2), and upcoming data such as the US October ADP employment change and China's October trade balance [12]. 3. Important Information and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China and the Bank of Korea renewed a bilateral currency swap agreement worth 400 billion yuan/70 trillion won for five years [13]. - The Ministry of Finance's Debt Management Department has been listed in the "Ministry Organs" list, with clear responsibilities for government debt management [13]. - Regarding the US threat of imposing tariffs on China due to rare earth export controls, China stated that dialogue and cooperation are the correct ways to solve problems [14]. 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report includes sections on stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond futures data, but specific data details are not fully presented in the provided content [15][19][31].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Policy boots have landed, risk appetite has recovered, and the idea of balanced allocation is maintained. With the implementation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of balance - sheet reduction, the achievement of phased economic and trade results in the China - US summit, and the release of specific contents of the Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal", market sentiment has improved. The marginal improvement in liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit domestic and overseas equity assets again, especially in the directions of technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation. However, the short - term policy benefits have been fully priced in, and valuation pressure and capital congestion may cause the stock index to fluctuate and consolidate. In the medium term, as the "15th Five - Year Plan" is implemented and the policies of the Two Sessions next year are put into effect, the upward momentum of the equity market still exists. At present, it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation idea. Non - ferrous metals perform relatively well supported by the technology cycle and trade recovery. Black commodities have phased rebound opportunities due to policy expectations and valuation repair. Bonds maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Precious metals are sorted out in the short term but the medium - and long - term allocation value remains unchanged. The overall strategy framework of "balanced allocation, structural attack" is continued [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% in the October meeting and announced to end balance - sheet reduction and fully renew Treasury bonds and agency MBS from December to cope with the rising reserve demand and short - term interest rate fluctuations. This operation reflects the risk management idea in the economic data vacuum period, taking into account both stable growth and liquidity stability [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Domestic policy support has been strengthened, and economic resilience has been maintained. The Fourth Plenary Session and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" set the tone of "technological self - reliance, anti - involution, and expanding domestic demand" and strengthen the "focus on economic construction". The PMI in October dropped to 49.0%. The manufacturing industry slowed down in the short term, but the construction and service industries remained expanding. Policy - based financial instruments and special bonds were accelerated to be implemented, investment repair accelerated, and the economy continued to stabilize [6]. - **Asset View**: With the implementation of policies, risk appetite has recovered. It is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation. The improvement of liquidity and the easing of China - US economic and trade relations will benefit equity assets at home and abroad, especially in the technology, independent manufacturing, and innovation directions. In the short term, the stock index may fluctuate due to valuation pressure and capital congestion. In the medium term, the equity market still has upward momentum. Non - ferrous metals perform well, black commodities have rebound opportunities, bonds are volatile and slightly stronger, and precious metals have medium - and long - term allocation value [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. Concerns include the congestion of small - and micro - cap funds. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market turnover has slightly declined. Concerns include the liquidity of the options market falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Concerns include policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade relations, precious metals are in a phased adjustment. Concerns include the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trend. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward driving force due to loading pressure. Concerns include the rate of freight rate decline in September. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market first rises and then falls. The supply - demand relationship weakens marginally, and the macro - atmosphere is warm. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, iron - water production, overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - **Coke**: The second - round price increase has been implemented, and the third - round is proposed. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is difficult to improve, and upstream inventory is continuously reduced. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, but loose supply - demand suppresses prices. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and the price first rises and then falls. Concerns include cost prices and overseas quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Glass**: The meeting expectations have been realized, and downstream demand remains weak. Concerns include spot sales. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support is strengthened, but there is a lack of upward driving force. Concerns include soda ash inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Trade frictions have resurfaced, and copper prices have declined in the short term. Concerns include supply disruptions, domestic policy exceeding expectations, the Fed being less dovish than expected, and domestic demand recovery falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the price is under pressure. Concerns include ore复产 falling short of expectations, electrolytic aluminum复产 exceeding expectations, and extreme sector trends. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices have risen in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile upward [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory is expected to be in surplus, and zinc prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro - turning risks and zinc ore supply exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lead**: The resumption of production of secondary lead smelters is imminent, and lead prices are volatile. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and slow battery exports. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons, and nickel prices are weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include macro and geopolitical changes exceeding expectations, Indonesian policy risks, and supply release falling short of expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the stainless - steel market has rebounded slightly. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and demand growth exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints still exist, and tin prices are volatile. Concerns include the resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment is volatile, but supply is abundant, and silicon prices are volatile in the short term. Concerns include supply - side production cuts exceeding expectations and photovoltaic installation exceeding expectations. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and lithium prices are slightly stronger. Concerns include demand falling short of expectations, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. Short - term judgment is volatile [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in surplus, and attention should be paid to the cost side. Concerns include the cost of crude oil and overseas propane. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Asphalt**: Entering the off - season, supply and demand are both weak, and asphalt futures prices are weak. Concerns include sanctions and supply disruptions. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expected decline in Asia - Pacific fuel oil supply in November. Concerns include geopolitics and crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. Concerns include crude oil prices. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Methanol**: There is still port inventory pressure, and olefins have declined. Methanol fluctuates downward. Concerns include macro - energy and overseas dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Urea**: Market sentiment has cooled down. Urea may fluctuate and consolidate at the cost - support level after the decline. Concerns include coal prices. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - environment lacks support, and the fundamentals are under pressure in the medium term. The price elasticity is average. Concerns include coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory rhythm, and China - US trade frictions. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PX**: The "anti - involution" meeting has no conclusion but boosts the market. The downstream demand improvement still drives the upstream. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PTA**: Macro - sentiment boosts the market, and downstream demand improvement supports the lower valuation. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The "anti - involution" disturbance of polyester raw materials has increased the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the market returns to fundamentals. Concerns include the downstream yarn factory's purchasing rhythm and the quality of peak - season demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Bottle Chip**: The processing fee is under great pressure. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants. Concerns include the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction targets. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Propylene**: The propane CP price has been lowered again. PL is weaker than PP in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **PP**: Maintenance is stable, and the propane CP price is lowered. PP is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Plastic**: Maintenance has increased slightly. Plastic is in a range. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - environment. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Styrene**: Disturbed by macro - events, styrene fluctuates. Concerns include oil prices, macro - policies, and plant dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and PVC is weak in a volatile manner. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: Demand support is limited, and caustic soda fluctuates downward. Concerns include market sentiment, production start - up, and demand. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The trends are differentiated, and palm oil sentiment is weak. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Disturbed by China - Canada relations, rapeseed meal has risen sharply. Concerns include weather, domestic demand, macro - environment, and China - US and China - Canada trade wars. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market has declined again. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe. Concerns include demand, macro - environment, and weather. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and prices are weak. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Natural Rubber**: The willingness to sell has increased, and rubber prices have fallen from high levels. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Raw materials have continued to weaken, and the market has temporarily stabilized at a low level. Concerns include significant crude oil fluctuations. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Cotton**: The expected benefits have been mostly digested, and the upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened in the short term. Concerns include demand and inventory. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices have rebounded, but the upward space is limited. Concerns include imports and Brazilian production. Short - term judgment is volatile downward [9]. - **Pulp**: The spot market is generally weak, and futures are difficult to rise significantly. Concerns include macro - economic changes and US dollar - priced quotes. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Offset Paper**: Offset paper follows pulp to strengthen. Concerns include production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up dynamics. Short - term judgment is volatile [9]. - **Logs**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and the market is bottom - fluctuating. Concerns include special port fees, shipment volume, and dispatch volume. Short - term judgment is volatile [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending November 2nd, global on - land crude oil inventories rebounded, floating storage inventories continued to rise significantly, and the full - scope (including in - transit) inventories reached a new high for the year, with high inventory pressure compared to the same period last year. Regionally, weekly inventories in China and Europe increased, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased, and Russia's weekly inventory dropped to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs - **Global Crude Oil Inventory Situation**: The full - scope (including in - transit) global crude oil inventories reached a new high for the year, and there was still significant inventory pressure year - on - year [2]. - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory Changes**: Weekly inventories in China and Europe accumulated, while those in India, Russia, and the Middle East decreased. Russia's weekly inventory fell to the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [2].

Report Summary 1. Core Data - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 42.5 billion yuan, and 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued next week [4]. - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds was 18.3 billion yuan [5]. - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week-on-week increase of 15.7 billion yuan, and 0 yuan is planned to be issued next week [6]. - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is -36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9]. - As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12]. - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing of treasury bonds + the issuance progress of new local bonds was 86.4% [15]. - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 yuan, a week-on-week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan [19]. 2. Core View The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 44th week of 2025, presenting the issuance progress, issuance scale, and net financing scale of new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and treasury bonds, as well as their week-on-week changes and future issuance plans [4][6][9]

Report Summary Report Title - Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 44, 2025 [2] Report Date - November 3, 2025 [3] Key Points 1. New Special Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 90.1%. This week, 154.9 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 42.5 billion yuan. Next week, 45.2 billion yuan is planned to be issued [4] 2. New General Bond Issuance - As of November 2, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 86.3%. This week, 17 billion yuan of new general bonds were issued, a week - on - week increase of 15.7 billion yuan. Next week, the planned issuance is 0 billion yuan [6] 3. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.9 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is - 36 billion yuan. As of November 2, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 89.5% [9] 4. Treasury Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 0 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 23.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 150.4 billion yuan. As of November 2, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 84.0% [12][19] 5. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 175.7 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 13.6 billion yuan. Next week, the planned net financing scale is 114.5 billion yuan. As of November 2, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 86.4% [15] 6. October Cumulative Issuance - As of October 31, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 287.4 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 18.3 billion yuan [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The Fed's interest rate cut and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions continue to boost market sentiment, but the differentiation of fundamentals leads to different price performances of sector varieties. The supply - demand of coal and coke remains balanced with high - level price oscillation, while high inventories of steel and continuous inventory accumulation of iron ore lead to price declines [1][2]. - The marginal weakening of the supply - demand pattern is the main feature of the later fundamental situation, which still poses upward resistance to the prices of some sector varieties. At the same time, there is still a possibility of positive news from the macro and policy levels. It is recommended to seize the upward opportunities under favorable macro and policy conditions [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Iron ore: The weekly molten iron output has decreased as expected. The weakening of steel mill profitability and the start of the off - season will limit the recovery space of molten iron after the end of environmental protection restrictions. Iron ore arrivals are expected to recover, and inventory is expected to increase marginally. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not prominent. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Scrap steel: The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamental contradictions are not prominent. Recently, the finished product data has slightly improved, and the downward driving force of scrap steel is limited. It is expected that the short - term scrap steel price will mainly follow the finished products [2][10]. Carbon Element - Coke: Under environmental protection restrictions, the demand for coke is temporarily tightened, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not large. With the continuous increase in raw coal prices, coke has started three rounds of price increases. However, although the finished product prices have slightly recovered recently, steel mill profits are still under pressure, and the game between steel and coke continues. It is expected that the coke price will oscillate [2][12]. - Coking coal: The supply of coking coal is difficult to improve. With continuous procurement from the middle and lower reaches, the coal mine inventory has dropped to a recent low. The short - term fundamentals are healthy. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will oscillate, waiting for further macro and policy boosts [2][13]. Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term cost is stable, and the high output of steel supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and the driving force for the price increase of manganese silicon is insufficient [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the ferrosilicon price in the short term. However, the market supply - demand relationship is relatively loose, and the upward price space is limited [3]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Some manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase is implemented and the sales situation after implementation. If the sales remain weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the medium and long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [3][14]. - Soda ash: The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center of gravity will still move down to promote capacity reduction [3][16]. Specific Varieties - Steel: The macro sentiment is volatile, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The spot market trading is generally weak, and the market sentiment has deteriorated. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the short - term futures price will be under pressure, and attention should be paid to macro policy disturbances [8]. - Iron ore: The molten iron output has decreased significantly, and the inventory has increased month - on - month. The spot price has weakened. The fundamentals are marginally weakening, but overall contradictions are not large. Macro expectations and market sentiment dominate, and short - term prices are expected to oscillate [8][9]. - Scrap steel: The arrival volume has decreased slightly, and the price is oscillating. The supply and demand of scrap steel both decline, and the fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. It is expected that the short - term price will follow the finished products [10]. - Coke: The supply has slightly increased, and the demand is temporarily tightened. The overall supply - demand contradiction is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [11][12]. - Coking coal: The supply is difficult to increase, and coal mines continue to reduce inventory. The short - term fundamentals are healthy, and the price is expected to oscillate [13]. - Glass: Manufacturers are trying to support the price by raising the spot price. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase and the sales situation. If the sales are weak, the price will return to a weak oscillation. In the long term, the price is expected to oscillate downward [14]. - Soda ash: After the supply recovery, manufacturers have returned to the inventory accumulation state. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that the price will follow the macro fluctuations and oscillate widely, and the long - term price center of gravity will move down [16]. - Manganese silicon: The driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the futures price is oscillating. The short - term cost is stable, and the high steel output supports the price, but the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic [17]. - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand relationship is still loose, and there is pressure above the futures price. The high output of finished products and the firm cost support the price in the short term, but the supply - demand relationship is relatively loose [18]. Related Indexes - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 0.57% to 2250.38, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52% to 2544.78, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87% to 2246.75 [99]. - The steel industry chain index on October 30, 2025, had a daily decline of 0.68%, a 5 - day increase of 2.52%, a 1 - month decline of 0.05%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.96% [101].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rebound of the US dollar index, influenced by Powell's hawkish remarks, suppresses base metals. Short - term supply disruptions support base metal prices, but macro - support weakens. Long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to drive up prices. [1] - For specific metals: copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening; alumina prices are expected to oscillate; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and have a rising central price in the medium - term; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term; zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with a downward trend in the long - term; lead prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening; nickel prices are expected to be oscillating and weakening; stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term; tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [2][6][7][9][10][15][17][20][22][23] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Copper - Information: In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of October 30, copper inventory decreased by 0.19 tons to 18.26 tons. [6] - Logic: The 14th Five - Year Plan and the easing of Sino - US trade relations improve market sentiment. Copper supply is constrained, and demand is affected by high prices. [6] - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [6] 2. Alumina - Information: On October 30, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina increased by 5 yuan, and the national weighted index increased by 7 yuan. Alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2389 tons to 225761 tons. [6][7] - Logic: Macro - sentiment cools down. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and the market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. [7] - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate. [7] 3. Aluminum - Information: On October 30, the SMM AOO average price was 21200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed, and the Fed cut interest rates and stopped balance - sheet reduction. [8] - Logic: The macro - environment is positive. Domestic production capacity is increasing, and overseas supply is disrupted. Demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing. The copper - aluminum ratio is high, and aluminum is undervalued. [9] - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and have a rising central price in the medium - term. [9] 4. Aluminum Alloy - Information: In October, the estimated scale of the narrow - sense passenger car retail market is expected to be about 2.2 million, a 2% decline from the previous month. Warehouse receipts are increasing. [10] - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and cost support is strong. Supply is affected by policies and demand, and demand is marginally improving. [10] - Outlook: Aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short - term and oscillating in the medium - term. [10] 5. Zinc - Information: On October 30, the spot zinc price had different discounts to the main contract. As of October 30, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 16.53 tons. [14] - Logic: Macro - optimism is being realized. Zinc ore supply is loosening, and demand is entering the off - season. [15] - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate, with a downward trend in the long - term. [15] 6. Lead - Information: On October 30, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was stable, and the lead ingot inventory decreased. [16] - Logic: The spot premium increased slightly, supply is recovering, and demand is in the peak season. [16] - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [17] 7. Nickel - Information: On October 30, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons to 25.164 tons, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 99 tons to 31532 tons. [17] - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The supply of nickel ore is loose, and the market is in surplus. [20] - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to be oscillating and weakening. [20] 8. Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was stable. The price of high - nickel pig iron was stable, and in September, China's nickel - iron imports reached a record high. [21] - Logic: Nickel - iron prices are weak, and chromium prices are stable. Stainless steel production increased in September, and inventory is decreasing. [21] - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. [22] 9. Tin - Information: On October 30, the London tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 73 tons to 5682 tons. The spot price of tin decreased by 1200 yuan/ton. [22] - Logic: Tin supply is constrained. Production in Wa State and Indonesia is affected, and the processing fee of tin concentrate will remain low. Refined tin production is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. [23] - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. [23] 10. Market Monitoring - On October 30, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures decreased by 0.57%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.52%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.87%. The non - ferrous metals index decreased by 0.74% on that day, increased by 0.01% in the past 5 days, increased by 5.01% in the past month, and increased by 8.13% since the beginning of the year. [148][150]