芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-04 宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐⼭减排进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均不明显，铁⽔⼩ 幅回落同⽐维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 ⼼回升⾄4-5⽉区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运⾏。 ⿊⾊：宏观利好情绪继续推动⿊⾊上⾏ "反内卷"叠加唐山减排进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观情绪主导市 场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势，形成正反馈 驱动。黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均不明显，铁水小 幅回落同比维持高位，钢材保持低库存。淡季悲观预期修复，价格重 心回升至4-5月区间。此次利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库， 提升现货流动性。后续则需要关注政策具体落实情况以及需求转弱程 度，预计短期震荡偏强运行。 1、铁元素方面，供应端压力较小，需求端钢企盈利率持稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with a bullish bias [4] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [4] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating [4] - Live Pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [5] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [6] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [9] - Cotton: Oscillating [10] - Sugar: Oscillating [11] - Pulp: Oscillating with a bearish bias [12] - Logs: Oscillating with a bearish bias [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple agricultural products. In the short - term, the prices of live pigs and oils and fats may show a bullish trend, while protein meal, corn, and other products will oscillate. In the long - term, the supply of live pigs may face pressure, and the sugar market may decline due to expected supply increases [2][4][5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - Yesterday, the market oscillated and showed differentiation. The market should continue to monitor changes in the US biodiesel policy. Due to technical buying and optimistic demand expectations for soybean oil in the US biofuel industry, US soybeans rose on Wednesday, and domestic oils oscillated and showed differentiation yesterday, with palm oil being relatively strong. In the future, oils may continue to oscillate with a bullish bias, but the sustainability of the upward trend should be noted [4]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - The price rose first and then fell, continuing to oscillate. Internationally, the US "Big and Beautiful" Act was passed, and US soybeans rebounded from the lower limit of the range. Domestically, soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate, and supply pressure may lead to a weakening of spot prices. In the long - term, protein meal may be supported by cost and oscillate in the short - term [4]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - The futures market remained weak, and the spot market stabilized. The current fundamentals of the corn market are affected by factors such as rainfall, changes in supply rhythm, and wheat substitution. The short - term trend is oscillating [4][5]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - Affected by the expected supply - side reform in the industry, the live pig futures market rebounded. In the short - term, pig prices have temporarily changed from weak to strong, but in the long - term, there is still supply pressure [2][5]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - Rubber prices continued to fluctuate with commodities. The current fundamentals of natural rubber are relatively stable, with limited price changes, and the market is waiting for new variables [6][8]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - The weak raw materials dragged the market down. The current fundamentals of synthetic rubber are not significant, and the market mainly follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities. The market may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the previous low support [9]. 3.1.7 Cotton - Low inventory supports cotton prices. Although there are expectations of increased production in the new season, the current low inventory structure is expected to be beneficial to cotton prices, and the short - term price may be relatively resistant to decline [10]. 3.1.8 Sugar - The external market continued to weaken, and the domestic - foreign price difference widened. Domestically, there is an expectation of concentrated arrivals of imported sugar, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure [11]. 3.1.9 Pulp - The futures market continued to rebound, but the spot market did not follow. The supply - demand situation of pulp is weak, and the futures market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [12]. 3.1.10 Logs - The fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. The log market is in a traditional off - season, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak on both sides [13]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists the data monitoring of multiple varieties, including the prices of live pigs, oils and fats, cotton, etc., but does not provide detailed analysis in this part [16][47][66][105][118][133][152]. 3.3 Rating Standards - The report provides rating standards such as "bullish", "oscillating with a bullish bias", "oscillating", "oscillating with a bearish bias", and "bearish", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks [165].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, there are still structural concerns, and inflation expectations are stabilizing. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has increased this week [7]. - Domestic macro: China's manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, with production and demand both picking up. However, the upward drive still depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction has seen a seasonal decline in physical work volume [7]. - Asset views: China's economy remains stable, and domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long term, the weak - dollar pattern will continue [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - **Overseas**: The ISM manufacturing PMI in the US in June slightly rebounded to 49.0. In May, job openings rose to 7.769 million, and the job - opening rate was 4.6%. Core durable goods orders surged in May. In June, consumer confidence, current situation, and expectations all declined. This week, long - term inflation expectations were stable, short - term inflation expectations rose, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut increased [7]. - **Domestic**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure physical work volume has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a strong performance at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July [7]. 3.2 Viewpoints Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Markets - **Stock Index Futures**: Policy starts to focus on manufacturing profits, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Adopt a covered - call defense strategy, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has stabilized, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continue to adjust, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Shipping**: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation for the European container shipping line, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.2 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - limit news, the market is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Affected by emission - reduction news in Tangshan, the market declined slightly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coke**: Rumors have caused the market to oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by supply - demand rumors, the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Due to the decline in coal valuation, the futures price is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: With the increase in cost valuation, the market rebounds after reaching the bottom, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Glass**: Prices in Shahe and Hubei continue to decline, and the market oscillates weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance disruptions still exist, and daily production begins to decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices remain high, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Alumina**: With a low number of warehouse receipts, the alumina market rises, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Aluminum and Zinc**: Aluminum prices rise due to low inventory and high premiums; zinc has an oversupply situation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation for aluminum and oscillatory decline for zinc [9]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside space for lead prices is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are weak in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is weak, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Tin**: Spot trading is dull, and tin prices oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply continues to increase, and silicon prices are under pressure to oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and there is a risk of price fluctuations, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitical risks, and the PG market may oscillate, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt futures prices oscillate, waiting for negative factors to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to ferment, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices decline following crude oil, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Methanol**: The port market has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - strong and demand - weak situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate weakly in the short term, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Inventory has dropped to the lowest in five years, and the futures price should not be overly shorted, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and the cost is strong, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Short - fiber**: It fluctuates with raw materials, and the basis remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Bottle Chips**: Processing fees fluctuate at a low level, and the absolute value follows raw materials, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, and PP oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Plastic**: The improvement from maintenance is limited, and plastic oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical risks have cooled down temporarily, and styrene prices decline, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. 3.2.5 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate strongly, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Protein Meal**: It oscillates within a range, and long positions should be held, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory rise [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is confirmed, the market has corrected in advance, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pigs**: Farmers are reluctant to sell, and attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent rainfall, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Rubber**: The strong performance of commodities has driven rubber prices up, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market oscillates within a narrow range, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Pulp**: Driven by the warm trading atmosphere in the financial market, pulp oscillates, with a short - term judgment of oscillatory decline [11]. - **Cotton**: The increase in the US cotton planting area has slowed down the rise of Zhengzhou cotton prices, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, and sugar prices have limited upward momentum, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11]. - **Timber**: The market is dominated by fundamentals again, and the far - month contracts oscillate weakly, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [11].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual products, the outlook for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [5][8][9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Central Financial Conference re - emphasized the orderly elimination of backward production capacity, strengthening the expectation of supply contraction of silicon, leading to a significant rise in new energy metal prices. In the short - to - medium term, the price increase of industrial silicon and polysilicon has a positive impact on lithium carbonate. In the long term, low prices may accelerate the capacity clearance of domestic self - priced products, but the long - term over - supply problem of lithium carbonate may limit the price increase [2] Group 3: Summary by Product Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards [5] - **Information Analysis**: As of July 2, the spot price of industrial silicon has slightly rebounded. Domestic inventory decreased by 0.2% month - on - month. In May, the domestic monthly output was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%. Exports in May were 55,652 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.5%. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in May was 92.9GW, a year - on - year increase of 388.0% [5] - **Main Logic**: Sudden production cuts by large northwest factories support prices. If the production cut scope expands, the supply - demand situation in July may improve. The southwest is in the wet season, and the resumption of production is slower than usual. The demand side is weak, and the inventory has slightly decreased this week. As the silicon price rebounds, supply may recover, and inventory may accumulate again [5] - **Outlook**: The fundamental over - supply situation of industrial silicon remains unchanged. The current price increase is driven by policy expectations, and the price is expected to oscillate [5][6] Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution policy has taken effect, and the polysilicon price has rebounded significantly [6] - **Information Analysis**: The average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock is 34,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase. In May, the export volume increased by 66.2% month - on - month, and the import volume decreased by 16.9% month - on - month. The cumulative new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to May increased by 150% year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: The polysilicon futures price hit the daily limit. Short - term production is low, and it is expected to rise to over 100,000 tons in June - July. The demand may weaken in the second half of the year after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation [8] - **Outlook**: The demand for polysilicon may weaken in the second half of the year, but the anti - involution policy may cause large fluctuations in supply. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, the lithium price remains oscillating [9] - **Information Analysis**: On July 2, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.88%. The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price increased by 350 yuan/ton. Zhongkuang Resources plans to upgrade its 25,000 - ton lithium salt production line [9] - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment is good, and demand production scheduling expectations are positive. Supply is increasing, and demand is expected to be good in July. Social inventory is accumulating, and warehouse receipt inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices after a rebound [9] - **Outlook**: Supply and demand remain in surplus, but the short - term reduction of warehouse receipts supports the price. The price is expected to oscillate [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual perspectives of each variety, the overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is mainly in a state of shock, with some varieties showing a tendency of shock - weakness or shock - strength. 2. Core Viewpoints - The European heatwave may boost middle - distillate and crude oil prices from an emotional and marginal demand perspective, and there is also support for oil - based chemicals [1]. - The domestic commodity market was generally supported on Wednesday. The anti - involution initiative in the photovoltaic glass and steel industries led to a significant rebound in the black sector, slightly boosting the chemical sector. However, the supply - demand situation of chemicals has not changed substantially [2]. - In general, the energy and chemical industry should be treated with a shock mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, and oil prices soared significantly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about geopolitics led to the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. The EIA inventory report showed lower Cushing inventory and diesel inventory in the United States, and the diesel crack spread reached a high of $33 per barrel. The European heatwave increased the expected demand for oil - fired power generation. Although OPEC increased production in June, it did not lead to effective inventory accumulation in the largest demand country [7]. - **Outlook**: The high point caused by geopolitics is unlikely to be reached again, but the market may continue to fluctuate while waiting for widespread inventory accumulation [7]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market may experience weak fluctuations [12]. - **Main Logic**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the market gradually returned to fundamental trading. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of liquefied gas and civil gas continues to increase, and it is the off - season for combustion. The downstream replenishment willingness is low. Although the PDH start - up rate is gradually increasing, the profit is still low, and the subsequent increase is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamental situation remains loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitics and tariffs. In the short term, the market is cautious, so PG is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs approaching the 90 - day tariff time node [12]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated, waiting for the fermentation of negative factors [10]. - **Main Logic**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated with crude oil. OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, increasing the certainty of heavy - oil supply. The supply of asphalt raw materials in China is sufficient, and the supply in South China is increasing rapidly. The demand side is not firmly supported [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to be fully realized [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the decline in natural gas prices may relieve the natural gas crisis in Egypt, reducing the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [10]. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while demand decreases. Geopolitical upgrades will only have a short - term impact on prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price declined following crude oil [11]. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand for high - sulfur substitution. Currently, it is undervalued and will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between the inland and ports, and methanol will fluctuate [20]. - **Main Logic**: On July 2, the methanol futures price rebounded. The price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The important domestic meeting boosted market sentiment. The coal price increase affected the cost of methanol production. The olefin market was weak in the short term, and the MTO profit was still low [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, relying on exports for promotion. Urea may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounded slightly in the past two days, driving better spot trading. There is still support from the end of agricultural demand and export port collection. However, the top - dressing season is coming to an end, and the demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories is limited [21]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose. With the opening of port inspections, urea enterprises are accelerating port collection, relying on exports to balance the supply - demand gap. The urea market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change in export volume [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The basis remained stable, and the units were restarting one after another. Ethylene glycol continued to fluctuate [16]. - **Main Logic**: The current low inventory of ethylene glycol supports the futures price, but the expected increase in future supply weakens the upward momentum. Therefore, it will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Outlook**: In a low - inventory pattern, the absolute value of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil was temporarily stable, and PX fluctuated with a slight upward trend [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC +'s continued production increase and concerns about global demand prospects. On the supply - demand side, some domestic PX units will be shut down for maintenance, and the focus is on whether the expected changes in the units will be realized [13]. - **Outlook**: There is a divergence between cost and supply - demand factors, and attention should be paid to crude oil risks [13]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakened, but the cost - side PX was strong, and PTA fluctuated [13]. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices may decline this week, providing weak support for PTA. Although there is less PTA supply and the main suppliers still intend to support the market, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, and demand is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate this week [13]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of PTA is marginally weakening, but it will follow the relatively strong performance of the cost side in the short term [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis declined, the processing fee increased, and the absolute value fluctuated with raw materials [16]. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber processing fee expanded again on Wednesday, and the basis declined this week. The downstream polyester yarn may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the start - up rate may decline. There are no major contradictions in the short - fiber industry [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [16]. Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually begun, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out [15]. - **Main Logic**: The weakening of the PTA basis has repaired the bottle - chip processing difference. In the short term, the price of the polyester bottle - chip market is expected to continue to fluctuate with raw material costs [18]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and there is limited room for further compression of the bottle - chip spot processing fee [18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: An important meeting boosted market sentiment, and PP fluctuated in the short term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The important meeting boosted market sentiment. The cost side was affected by oil price fluctuations, and the market was closely watching OPEC +'s production decision. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overseas, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened, and the export window has limited expansion [24]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [24]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution initiative boosted market sentiment, and plastics rebounded slightly [23]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution initiative and the meeting boosted market sentiment. Oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand situation in the United States changed. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with increased production capacity and high supply pressure [23]. - **Outlook**: The plastic 09 contract will fluctuate in the short term [23]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: During the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene fluctuated narrowly [14]. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, the decline in oil prices led to a weakening of market bullish sentiment. The spot supply - demand weakened, and the port inventory increased. The supply of styrene is returning, and the downstream demand is gradually fading, showing a trend of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the low inventory level of the styrene industry chain and the difference between pure benzene and styrene [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations with a slight downward trend [14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC fluctuated [27]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the anti - involution initiative and overseas fiscal and monetary policies improved market risk appetite. At the micro level, the long - term supply - demand situation of PVC is still under pressure, with new capacity coming on stream, the off - season for domestic demand, and limited growth in exports [27]. - **Outlook**: Although market risk appetite has improved, the supply - demand outlook for PVC is pessimistic, and the market should mainly short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine was under pressure, and caustic soda rebounded weakly [27]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, caustic soda fluctuated. The support comes from improved market risk appetite and an upward shift in the cost center. The pressure lies in the pessimistic supply - demand outlook from July to August. The production volume will increase in July, and the comprehensive cost center of caustic soda will shift upward [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations. If downstream replenishment is active, the rebound space for caustic soda will open up [28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly in the short - term, with the increase narrowing. The US ADP employment data in June was significantly lower than expected, but its impact on the market is limited. The focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is rising, and the uncertainty of the trade outlook supports gold. In the short - term, silver is expected to follow the price of gold. In the second half of the year, gold is bullish, and silver is cautiously bullish [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, with an expected increase of 95,000. After the data release, the probability of a July interest rate cut by the Fed rose from about 20% to 27.4%. Traders increased bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2] - Trump said he would not extend the July 9 trade negotiation deadline, doubted the possibility of reaching an agreement with Japan, and threatened to impose up to 30% - 35% tariffs on Japanese goods [2] - US Treasury Secretary Bensen confirmed that the Fed will cut interest rates by September at the latest, repeatedly called for rate cuts, and discussed possible candidates for Powell's successor [2] - Trump said Vietnam will pay 20% tariffs on exports to the US and 40% transit tariffs [2] Price Logic - The price of precious metals fluctuates strongly, and the increase narrows. The ADP employment data has limited impact, and the focus is on the non - farm payroll data. The Fed's interest rate cut expectation is rising, and trade uncertainty supports gold. This week, focus on non - farm payroll data and tariff progress. If they do not deteriorate significantly, gold may fluctuate within a range this month; if they deteriorate, the gold price is expected to rise. Silver is expected to follow the gold price in the short - term [3] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating Bullish [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating [9][10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating Bullish [11][12][13] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [14][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [17] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [18][20] - **Sugar**: Oscillating [21] - **Pulp**: Oscillating Bearish [22] - **Logs**: Oscillating Bearish [23][24] 2. Core Views of the Report - The improvement in the macro - level drives the rebound of agricultural products. Different agricultural products show various trends due to factors such as policy, supply - demand, and macro - environment [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs (1)行情观点 - **Oils and Fats**: The US biodiesel policy boosts demand expectations, and oils and fats may continue to oscillate upward. The US Senate's passing of the fiscal spending bill including the 45Z tax credit and Brazil's plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio are positive factors. However, factors like OPEC +'s August production policy, trade relations, and crude oil prices need attention [8]. - **Protein Meal**: It will oscillate within a range, and long positions can be held. Internationally, factors such as the US Senate's tax bill, US soybean area, and Argentine soybean production are intertwined. Domestically, there is a supply - pressure on the short - term price, but long - term cost support exists [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: After the import auction is finalized, the futures price drops in advance. The supply pressure from policy - grain auctions and the substitution of wheat for feed are negative factors, while the potential production - demand gap is a positive factor [9][10]. - **Hogs**: The strengthening of the macro - sentiment drives up both the spot and futures prices. In the short term, there is a price rebound, but in the long term, there is supply - suppression risk [11][12][13]. - **Natural Rubber**: The strong rise of commodities drives the rubber price to run strongly. Currently, the supply has an incremental expectation, and the demand has a decreasing expectation, but it is difficult for a sharp decline to occur in the third quarter [14][16]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price oscillates within a narrow range. The market is mainly affected by the fluctuations of natural rubber and overall commodities, and the end - user's raw material procurement attitude is negative [17]. - **Cotton**: The low - inventory structure supports the cotton price. Although there is an expected increase in new - cotton production and weak demand in the off - season, the current low inventory makes the price relatively resistant to decline [18][20]. - **Sugar**: There is insufficient power for continuous strengthening. Both domestic and international markets face potential supply - increase pressure, and there is a limit to the price rebound [21]. - **Pulp**: The warm trading atmosphere in the financial market drives the pulp price. However, the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the futures price is expected to oscillate downward [22]. - **Logs**: The supply - demand is weak, and the market oscillates. The market is in the off - season, and the mid - term is affected by weak fundamentals [23][24]. (2)品种数据监测 - The report only lists the names of various product categories such as oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, etc., without specific data monitoring content provided.

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/07/03 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed hope that China can accelerate rare ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-03 供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐⼭减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均 不明显，铁⽔维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 ⿊⾊：供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐山减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均 不明显，铁水维持高位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 1、铁元素方面，小样本钢企铁水微降，短期无大幅下行驱动。到港 环比下降叠加需求高位，港口 ...