Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 9, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 436.40 yuan/gram, with a change of -1.30%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 380.45 yuan/gram, with a change of -0.47% [2] - For platinum, with the FOMC meeting approaching, it's waiting for further upward drive. Long - term, it maintains a bullish view. It's expected that platinum prices will fluctuate strongly, and it's recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy [3] - For palladium, the spot shortage continues and the price remains firm. Short - term, the price will fluctuate strongly, while medium - to long - term, there is a risk of price decline due to looser supply - demand [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Platinum - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate meeting this week is a focus, with expectations of a hawkish rate - cut signal. In December, the nomination of the Fed chair makes rate - cuts a core trading contradiction. The potential dovish Fed chair nominee makes platinum prices stronger. Long - term, high supply concentration brings risks, and demand will expand, with the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination amplifying price elasticity [3] - Outlook: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. It's advisable to focus on low - buying opportunities and the long - platinum short - palladium strategy at a low platinum - palladium ratio [3] Palladium - Main logic: The Russian geopolitical issue affects palladium supply. The US investigation on Russian palladium and the lack of a compromise in the Russia - Ukraine conflict lead to a short - term supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand has structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand tends to loosen, short - term shortage and Fed's rate - cut cycle support the price [4] - Outlook: Short - term, due to spot shortage and a relatively favorable macro - environment, palladium prices will fluctuate strongly. Medium - to long - term, pay attention to the price decline risk after the US investigation's result and the loosening of supply - demand [4] Commodity Index (December 9, 2025) - The comprehensive index was 2242.53, with a change of -1.08%; the commodity 20 index was 2560.81, with a change of -1.08%; the industrial product index was 2185.44, with a change of -1.38% [32] - The PPI commodity index was 1348.04, with a change of -1.57% [32] - The non - ferrous metal index was 2532.90, with a daily change of -1.69%, a 5 - day change of +0.67%, a 1 - month change of +1.93%, and a year - to - date change of +9.73% [32]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-10 股市交易转向局部主题，债市重回震荡 股指期货：交易转向局部主题，上攻暂缺持续主线 股指期权：续持卖权防御为主 国债期货：国债期货全线上涨 股指期货方面，交易转向局部主题，上攻暂缺持续主线。周二沪指低 开回落，量能缩至不足2万亿元，市场缺乏持续主线，难聚集有效进攻。 周一的两大因素被快速计价，交易转向局部主题，一是有火箭发射计划的 商业航天，二是特朗普政府批准英伟达H200 AI芯片对华出口，且美方将 抽取25%销售额分成，催化英伟达概念强势，在多数行业收跌的环境中， 通信、电子行业收涨。而主要宽基指数中，仅创业板指收红，科创100跌 幅大于科创50，或反映部分公募资金，在年末将跑输业绩基准的压力下， 由小切大，补仓科技大盘股。主线分散，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待，操 作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股息。 股指期权方面，续持卖权防御为主。昨日权益市场涨跌互现，沪指单 日收跌0.37%。期权方面，首先需要重点关注的是期权各品种市场成交额 大幅回落29.89%。正如我们在周一的日报中提示，观测周一期权流动性 ...

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of silicon material storage promotion is rising, and polysilicon leads the rise of new energy metals. In the short - to - medium term, the adjustment of lithium ore production policy in Nigeria last weekend supports the price of lithium carbonate, and polysilicon price was once under pressure due to the increase in registered brands but is supported by the rising expectation of silicon material storage policy. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon with a possible rise in price center; the lithium ore production capacity is still increasing, but the demand expectation is also rising, and the expected surplus of supply and demand is narrowing, and the annual supply - demand inflection point of lithium carbonate may appear earlier [1]. - For industrial silicon, the cost support weakens and the silicon price falls. For polysilicon, the storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. For lithium carbonate, the slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Cost support weakens, and silicon price falls. The price of oxygen - passing 553 in East China is 9,200 yuan/ton, and 421 is 9,650 yuan/ton, with a slight decline. The domestic inventory is 454,300 tons, a 1.3% month - on - month increase. The domestic monthly output in November 2025 is 402,000 tons, an 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative production from January to November is 3.871 million tons, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease. The export in October is 45,073 tons, a 35.8% month - on - month and 30.8% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 607,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease. The new photovoltaic installed capacity in October 2025 is 12.6GW, a 30.43% month - on - month increase and 38.3% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline in coal prices weakens the cost support. In December, industrial silicon production may still decline. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. The inventory accumulation trend continues, and the fundamentals are weak. - **Outlook**: The price shows a weakening trend in oscillation [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The storage expectation rises again, and the price continues to be highly volatile. The成交 price of N - type re - feed material is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 2,810 lots, unchanged. The export volume in October is about 1,547.8 tons, a 58% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to October 2025 is 20,215 tons, a 33% year - on - year decrease. The import volume in October is about 1,446 tons, a 39.1% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative import from January to October 2025 is 16,123 tons, a 52.26% year - on - year decrease. The new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October 2025 is 252.87GW, a 39.5% year - on - year increase [7]. - **Main Logic**: The storage expectation of the polysilicon platform is rising, and the price is highly volatile. The supply in the southwest region is decreasing due to the dry season, and the demand is also weakening. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Outlook**: The price fluctuates widely [7][9]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: The slowdown in the retail growth of new energy vehicles and the off - season expectation may suppress the short - term price. On December 9, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 2.15% to 92,800 yuan/ton; the total position of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 30,399 lots to 1,023,470 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The average price of spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) remained unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 200 lots to 12,920 lots [9]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand, and the inventory is still being depleted in December. The resumption of production at the Jiuxiawo mine may cause price fluctuations. If the Jiuxiawo mine resumes production, the supply may turn loose in late December. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [9][10][11]. 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided. 3.3中信期货商品指数 (CITIC Futures Commodity Index) - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index is 2,242.53, a 1.08% decrease; the commodity 20 index is 2,560.81, a 1.08% decrease; the industrial product index is 2,185.44, a 1.38% decrease. The new energy commodity index on December 9, 2025, is 434.41, with a daily decrease of 1.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 3.05%, a 1 - month increase of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.34% [53][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines [2][10][12] - Poly-silicon prices are set to fluctuate broadly due to marginal weakening in demand, contracting supply during the dry season, and lingering policy expectations [17] - The recent sharp drop in coking coal and coke futures is a result of concentrated pessimism and capital games. Market sentiment reversal will take time, but downstream winter stocking in mid-to-late December is expected to gradually improve fundamentals and sentiment [26][28] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On December 9, stock index futures declined while treasury bond futures rose; most commodities fell, with energy and chemical commodities leading the declines. Financial futures: IH fell by 0.9%, IC fell by 0.8%, TL rose by 0.4%. Commodity futures: The top three gainers were polysilicon, live hogs, and fiberboard; the top three decliners were industrial silicon, coke, and fuel oil [10][11][12] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Poly-Silicon**: On December 9, it rose by 3.5% to 55,610 yuan/ton. Guanghe Qiancheng was reported to be officially established with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, but industry insiders did not confirm its role. The GFEX added two new registered brands, which may increase registered warehouse receipts and cause a short - term pullback in nearby futures contract prices. Supply decreased in the dry season, and demand was weakened after over - drawing in the first half of the year. Prices are expected to fluctuate [16][17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On December 9, coking coal fell by 2.2% to 1,082.5 yuan/ton, and coke dropped by 2.7% to 1,514 yuan/ton. The sharp drop was due to news - driven disturbances and capital behaviors dominated by market pessimism. Fundamentally, supply and demand changed little, but procurement weakened. Actual substantial supply growth will only be possible after 2027. Market sentiment may improve with downstream winter stocking [22][23][27] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On December 9, Premier Li Qiang held the "1 + 10" Dialogue with heads of major international economic organizations, expressing China's willingness to promote common development [33] 2.2 Industry News - On December 9, it was reported that the U.S. President Trump would approve the sale of NVIDIA H200 AI chips to China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson said China advocates mutual benefit and win - win results through cooperation [34]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-10 玉米现货震荡，盘面持续回落 油脂：昨日继续震荡偏弱，关注MPOB报告 蛋白粕：双粕市场延续弱势 玉米/淀粉：现货震荡，盘面持续回落 生猪：疫情隐忧，盘面反弹 天然橡胶：横盘震荡趋势未改 合成橡胶：盘面维持震荡格局 棉花：短期突破存阻力 白糖：下方支撑较强，糖价小幅反弹 纸浆：触及压力位后回落，宽幅震荡格局维持 双胶纸：需求乏力，延续弱势 原木：上行乏力，窄幅震荡 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 玉米观点：现货震荡，盘面持续回落 逻辑：今国内玉米价格走势分化，东北、华北深加工以稳为主，局部小幅 涨跌；港口普遍跟随期货继续回落。东北深加工玉米收购价以稳为主，部 分企业较昨日小幅调整（-10）-10元/吨，到货量小幅增加。上周五夜盘 起，因市场传出调节性储备拍卖等相关消息，叠加盘面涨至高位整数关 卡，引起市场情绪转向，盘面迎来下跌。受盘面情绪影响，东北方面，基 层贸易商与烘干塔获利出货意愿增强，东北粮农惜售情绪或小幅降温，致 使市场流通粮源阶段性增加，售粮进程预计小幅加速。但考虑用粮企业 ...

成本支撑削弱,工业硅价格快速回落 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 风险提示 风险因素:北方天气污染抗动;煤炭价格变动;供应端超预期复产。 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | | 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 | 投资咨询号:Z0022534 | | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 | 投资咨询号:Z0022750 | 最新动态及原因 12月9日，工业持期货大幅回落，主力合约脱磊3.47%至8340元吨，跌破前期支撑位。价格下行主要流于工业時自身供需偏弱以及成本支撑减弱的双重影响：一方面，12月工业砖型终累库倍 局，多晶硅枯水蜘成产及有机硅城产挺价，导致工业硅霜求持续转弱；另一方面，焦那企业体中能贸易商原料采购度较、上游煤矿库存加速累积，推动煤炭价格大幅下跌。工业硅作为高耗能产 品，对煤炭依赖明显 -- 既直接消耗碳质还原剂，又通过火电电价间接传导成本。煤价回落削弱了成本支撑，加速了工业硅价格下行。 基本面情况 基本面来看，供应 ...