1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the agricultural products market shows a complex situation with different trends for each variety. Some products are expected to be volatile, while others are likely to be weak or strong in different periods [5][6][10]. - For example, in the short - term, log prices are expected to be volatile and strong, while sugar prices are expected to be volatile and weak [22][18]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Supply is expected to be loose, and oils and fats will fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic policies are relatively loose. The US Department of Agriculture raised the global soybean production and inventory in 25/26. The inventory of palm oil in Malaysia increased, and the market sentiment of rapeseed oil was affected by trade agreements and bio - diesel news. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to consider phased buying hedging after corrections and the strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: There is a tug - of - war between bulls and bears, and soybean meal is testing the lower support. - **Logic**: Internationally, the supply of US soybeans is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds is decreasing. Domestically, the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact, but factors such as pre - holiday stocking support the price of soybean meal. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate, and rapeseed meal will fluctuate weakly [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: Snow disrupts logistics, and prices are still supported. - **Logic**: The supply is in a tight balance in the short - term. Snow disrupts logistics, and the supply is tight. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a positive impact on prices. - **Outlook**: The market will maintain a high - level volatile pattern [10]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: Snow boosts the spot price, but the futures market still has inventory pressure. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - month slaughter rhythm is slow, and snow drives up the price. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026. - **Outlook**: It will fluctuate. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the market is expected to improve in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The macro - driving force weakens, and the market enters a wide - range fluctuation. - **Logic**: The rubber price is affected by the overall commodity adjustment. The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is weak after the price rise. - **Outlook**: It will return to a wide - range fluctuation in the short - term and maintain the idea of buying on dips in the medium - term [15]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It is in a corrective adjustment, and the market closes down. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is a lack of upward momentum, but the downside space is limited due to tight raw materials. The medium - term bullish logic remains. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is pressure in the short - term, and it will be volatile and strong in the medium - term [17]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: It continues to adjust, and the cotton price closes down. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the cotton price is in an adjustment period after the previous rise. The new cotton is in the concentrated listing period, and the consumption is relatively good. In the long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to fluctuate narrowly. - **Logic**: The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, and the supply in the domestic market is increasing. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [18]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot price of hardwood pulp turns down, and the fundamental concerns increase. - **Logic**: The import cost is rising, but the demand is entering the off - season, and the liquidity of softwood pulp is abundant. The hardwood pulp price is showing signs of decline. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak in the short - term [19]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **Viewpoint**: The commodity is adjusting, and double - glued paper is running weakly. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment declines, and the futures market is under pressure from warehouse receipts. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and weak [20][21]. 3.1.11 Logs - **Viewpoint**: Affected by the black sector, logs fall below the valuation. - **Logic**: The futures price is affected by the black sector and falls into the low - valuation area. The fundamentals are improving marginally. The delivery pressure in some areas is weakening, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising. - **Outlook**: It will be volatile and strong in the short - term, and the 03 contract can be operated in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [22]. 3.2 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index shows different trends. The commodity 20 index increased by 0.20%, the industrial products index decreased by 0.28%, and the agricultural products index decreased by 0.74% on January 19, 2026 [182][184].

Report Overview - On January 19, 2026, the closing prices of the pure benzene 2603 contract and the styrene 2602 contract were 5,827 yuan/ton and 7,295 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of +3.48% and +1.86% [2] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene is in a transitional period where the fundamentals may shift, with significant real - world pressure. Although high inventories may limit short - term increases, there will be a quarterly improvement in Q1. There is a possibility of an early market manifestation under the consistent expectation similar to the polyester chain [3] Reasons for the Rise - **Port De - stocking**: As of January 19, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at Jiangsu ports was 20.7 tons, a reduction of 2.7 tons from the previous week. From January 12 - 18, there were no arrivals and about 2.7 tons of pick - ups, which was the first de - stocking since November 10 [3] - **Downstream Profit Boost**: Driven by export deals and unexpected maintenance, styrene supply and demand are tight, and the price difference with pure benzene is widening. Two styrene plants are about to resume production, and terminal export growth drives demand [3] - **Potential Tariff Cancellation**: There are discussions about the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene, which is seen as a potential positive factor [3] - **Catch - up in Aromatic Allocation**: In the chemical industry, aromatics are a multi - allocation sector. After the previous rally of PX - PTA, it entered a digestion and feedback phase. Pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a multi - allocation choice for funds [3] Market Outlook - From the balance sheet, the supply - demand gap remains positive from January to February but decreases month - on - month. There may be a small amount of de - stocking in March. High inventories may limit short - term increases, but there will be a quarterly improvement in Q1. If the US cancels the tariff on South Korean pure benzene, it will greatly benefit the domestic pure benzene balance sheet and raise its valuation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation in Iran has temporarily subsided, leading to a significant decline in oil prices and a synchronous adjustment in the chemical industry. Although the short - term risk of US military action against Iran has decreased, the potential impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict still needs attention [1]. - The chemical futures prices have fluctuated more violently, generally following the sharp decline of crude oil. The adjustment space of the chemical industry this time will not reach the low point in December. Investors should view the market with a volatile mindset [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and the chemical industry should be treated with a volatile perspective [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the geopolitical premium has declined. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [7]. - **Asphalt**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downwards. It is expected to decline in a volatile manner in the medium - to - long term as the absolute price is overvalued [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation between the US and Iran has cooled down, and the fuel oil premium has declined. It is expected to be volatile as the growth of Venezuelan oil production exerts long - term pressure, while short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price has fallen. It is expected to be volatile, following the movement of crude oil, as it is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels with limited demand space, but currently has a low valuation [10]. - **PX**: The cost is weak, and combined with rumors of device maintenance changes, the profit is being adjusted. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to the support around 7000 yuan [12]. - **PTA**: The cost support is insufficient, and the downstream negative feedback is strong. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with attention paid to the support around 5000 yuan [13][14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The downstream styrene is strong, boosting the price of pure benzene. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market currently in a state of weak reality and the expected improvement temporarily failing to materialize [15][17]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation is tight, and the commodity atmosphere is good. It is expected to be strong in a volatile manner in the short term if there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The sentiment is poor, and the supply - demand pattern is marginally weakening. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with limited rebound height due to long - term inventory accumulation pressure [20][22]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand sustainability is insufficient, and it is expected to be range - bound. The price will follow the upstream adjustment, and the processing fee is slightly under pressure [24]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The supply is continuously compressed, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired. The absolute value will follow the raw material fluctuations, and the support for the processing fee is increasing [26]. - **Methanol**: The inland market continues to be weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term [29]. - **Urea**: The regional top - dressing demand provides support, but the market is resistant to high prices. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with a possible slight upward exploration [30]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream trading volume has shrunk, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [34]. - **PP**: The maintenance has slightly decreased, and the upside space is limited. It is expected to be volatile in the short term [35]. - **PL**: The supply has tightened, and it is expected to be volatile in the short term [36]. - **PVC**: The short - term "rush for exports" provides support, but the long - term pressure is high. It is expected to be supported in the short term and under pressure in the long term [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is expected to run weakly. The supply - demand situation is still under pressure, but the price decline is limited by liquid chlorine [40]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.66 with a change of - 0.03 [42]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different varieties. For instance, the basis of asphalt is - 67 with a change of 1, and the warehouse receipt is 47720 [43]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 80 with a change of 283 [45]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of basis and spreads for multiple chemical varieties including methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific detailed data summaries are not provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2439.09, with a decline of 0.39%; the commodity 20 index is 2791.36, with a decline of 0.63%; the industrial product index is 2354.54, with a decline of 0.35% [285]. - **Energy Index**: On January 15, 2026, the energy index is 1127.52. The daily decline is 0.10%, the 5 - day increase is 2.62%, the 1 - month increase is 4.36%, and the increase since the beginning of the year is 3.77% [287].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-01-16 股市缩量调整，债市表现分化 股指期货：股市低开震荡，热⻔板块⾼低轮动 股指期权：交投热度降温，隐波显著回落 国债期货：结构性⼯具率先发⼒ 股指期货方面，周四沪指低开震荡，缩量调整，午盘小破4100点。板 块高低轮动主导，商业航天、AI应用调整，军工、传媒、计算机领跌，但 前期热门的贵金属、能源金属、存储芯片重新活跃，催化电子、化工、有 色金属领涨，呈现板块跷跷板。周三增仓的股指对冲空单，在周四集中平 仓，贴水小幅收敛，佐证资金自然止盈，而非担忧后续大跌风险。盘后公 布去年的金融数据，12月企业贷款与企业债券融资均显著强于季节性，投 资企稳回升、M1增速活跃。且增量政策开始释放，央行下调结构性货币政 策工具利率，并增加了相关结构性工具的额度，对经济的支持力度延续。 因此回调偏资金层面，中期两会前博弈经济政策预期和产业景气的逻辑不 变，抓住回撤的加仓良机，以IC多单配置为主，ETF投资者也可关注双创 相关。 风险因子：1）资金情绪过热；2）期权流动性超预期1）政策超预 期；2）股市上涨超预期；3）货币不及预期。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation", with some varieties having specific outlooks like "Oscillation with a slight upward trend" for coking coal. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The off - season fundamentals are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream restocking intensity. Steel enterprise复产 in January is expected to boost the restocking expectation, and the furnace charge price has the expectation of rising from a low level, but the upside space is restricted by steel mill profits. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Port inventory continues to accumulate, there are disturbance expectations on the supply side, and the resumption of hot metal production and pre - holiday restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand sides need verification, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2][8] - Scrap steel: The supply of scrap steel is low, the electric furnace profit is acceptable, and the daily consumption keeps increasing, supporting the demand. The overall fundamental contradiction is not prominent, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [2][10] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The cost side of coke has stabilized and rebounded, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As the mid - and downstream winter restocking gradually starts, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase is expected to be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [3][11] - Coking coal: As the Spring Festival approaches, the winter restocking intensity gradually increases, and the subsequent coal mine supply will gradually decrease due to the holiday. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. [3][12] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon remains loose, the upstream de - stocking pressure is large, and it is difficult to transmit costs downward. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling hedging pressure. In the medium term, the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [3][15] - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the ferrosilicon market has both weak supply and demand, and the fundamental contradiction is relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [3][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. [3][13] - Soda ash: The overall supply - demand of soda ash is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long term, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity de - stocking. [3][13] 3.5 Individual Varieties - Steel products: The demand still has resilience, but there is seasonal weakening pressure later. Steel mills still have room for复产, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side. The fundamentals have limited highlights. With steel mill复产 and winter restocking, the cost side still has support, and the futures price will oscillate in a wide range. [8] - Iron ore: The hot metal production decreases month - on - month, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The port inventory is rising, the supply side has disturbance expectations, and the demand side is supported by hot metal复产 and pre - holiday restocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. [8] - Scrap steel: The arrival volume increases slightly, and the daily consumption of electric furnaces reaches a new high. The supply is low, the demand is supported, and the spot price is expected to oscillate. [10] - Coke: The hot metal production declines, and restocking continues. The cost side has strong support, and the fundamentals continue to improve. The futures price is expected to follow coking coal. [11] - Coking coal: The coking enterprises restock well, and the coal mine inventory decreases. The supply - demand pattern is gradually optimizing, and the futures and spot prices have upward momentum. [12] - Glass: The spot production and sales weaken, and a negative feedback between futures and spot is approaching. The current supply - demand is in surplus, and the price trend depends on whether there is more cold repair before the end of the year. [13] - Soda ash: The warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the spot price oscillates at a low level. The overall supply - demand is in surplus, oscillating in the short term and the price center will decline in the long term. [13] - Manganese silicon: The de - stocking pressure remains high, and the futures price is under pressure to decline. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the futures price will mainly run around the cost valuation. [15] - Ferrosilicon: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the cost support still exists. The market has both weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector. [17] 3.6 Index Information - On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.39%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.63%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.35%. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.38% on the day, increased by 0.06% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.68% in the past month, and increased by 2.21% since the beginning of the year. [102][104]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver experienced a significant correction after reaching a new historical high, mainly due to the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking, and increased volatility. Gold also declined but to a limited extent, with its safe - haven and monetary attributes remaining resilient [1][3]. - In the short term, attention should be paid to the decline in silver volatility and the repair of the position structure, while being vigilant about the amplified technical volatility under high - level oscillations. In the medium term, fundamentals and macro - logic will be the main drivers, and the correction is more conducive to the re - layout of long - term funds [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - US senior officials met with Danish and Greenlandic foreign ministers, but the communication failed to calm Trump's public statement about "taking over Greenland", increasing concerns about long - term geopolitical tensions between Copenhagen and Washington and raising the geopolitical uncertainty premium [2]. - Trump said the president "should have some say in Fed policy" and emphasized that he has no plan to replace Fed Chairman Powell [2]. - US Senate Republicans rejected a bill to limit the president's further military actions against Venezuela without congressional authorization [2]. Price Logic - **Gold**: In the overall correction of precious metals, gold was relatively stable. Although the suspension of tariffs in the US eased short - term policy disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, the "sell the US" narrative, and geopolitical uncertainties still provided medium - term support for gold. The decline in gold prices was more of a technical adjustment under the repair of risk appetite and did not change its configuration value as a hedging asset [3]. - **Silver**: The previous rise of silver was driven by tariff expectations, tight spot supply, and capital sentiment, with a growth rate significantly faster than the digestion ability of fundamentals. After the cooling of tariff expectations, concentrated profit - taking and a high - volatility environment led to a rapid price decline. In the medium term, supply constraints, industrial demand (such as photovoltaics), and the spill - over effect of gold still exist, but in the short term, time or price correction is needed to digest the over - crowded trading structure [3]. Market Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The commodity index was 2448.62, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index was 2809.04, up 1.08%; the industrial products index was 2362.72, up 0.62%; the PPI commodity index was 1466.29, up 0.70% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On January 14, 2026, the precious metals index was 4368.49, with a daily increase of 3.46%, a 5 - day increase of 9.90%, a 1 - month increase of 19.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.23% [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Platinum and palladium are expected to be oscillating upwards [2] Core Viewpoints - The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and platinum and palladium prices are maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The prices of GFEX platinum and palladium main contracts dropped on January 15, with platinum down 4.11% and palladium down 4.62% [1] - Due to concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks, platinum prices may continue to oscillate widely in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa faces risks, while demand in various fields is expanding, and the "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] - The short - term palladium price may also oscillate widely. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Summary by Related Aspects Platinum - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX platinum main contract closed at 609.05 yuan/gram, down 4.11% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: Concerns about the Fed's independence and rising geopolitical risks will keep the price in a wide - range oscillation. Investors are advised to manage risks and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [1] - **Long - term Outlook**: South Africa, the main supplier, faces power supply and extreme weather risks. The platinum market is in a structural expansion stage, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "rate - cut + soft - landing" combination will increase price elasticity [1] Palladium - **Current Situation**: The tariff expectation on key minerals has not been fulfilled, and on January 15, the GFEX palladium main contract closed at 478.6 yuan/gram, down 4.62% [1] - **Short - term Outlook**: The price may oscillate widely. Investors are advised to trade cautiously and look for low - buying opportunities after the price stabilizes [2] - **Long - term Outlook**: Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's potential rate - cut cycle support the price [2] Commodity Index (January 15, 2026) - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index was 2439.09, down 0.39%; the commodity 20 index was 2791.36, down 0.63%; the industrial products index was 2354.54, down 0.35% [47] Non - ferrous Metals Index (January 15, 2026) - The index value was 2854.45, with a daily increase of 0.09%, a 5 - day increase of 2.13%, a 1 - month increase of 12.72%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.27% [49]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2026/01/16 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) cut the interest rates of structural mon ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - environment, consumption supports the economy, inflation is falling, and the Fed maintains a wait - and - see stance. In the US, the economy is in a "light to moderate" expansion, employment is stable, price pressure is generally easing, and retail sales show a "K - shaped" consumption pattern. The Fed is likely to wait for more clear guidance on inflation and financial conditions [9]. - In the domestic macro - environment, incremental policies are continuously introduced to ensure a good start. The central bank conducts a 9000 - billion - yuan 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operation, increasing the amount by 300 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. The central bank also optimizes structural monetary policy tools, cuts the interest rate by 25bp, and increases the quota of related tools [9]. - At the level of major asset classes, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), and gold on a monthly basis. For precious metals, silver has high short - term volatility and is recommended to be standard - allocated in the short term, and can be overweighted at low prices after volatility stabilizes [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Asset Price Performance 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 futures: The current price is 4746.6, with a daily increase of 0.09, a weekly increase of 0.06, a monthly increase of 3.19, a quarterly increase of 3.19, and an annual increase of 3.19 [2]. - SSE 50 futures: The current price is 3108, with a daily decrease of 0.36, a weekly decrease of 0.85, a monthly increase of 2.74, a quarterly increase of 2.74, and an annual increase of 2.74 [2]. - CSI 500 futures: The current price is 8206.8, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 2.1, a monthly increase of 11.46, a quarterly increase of 11.46, and an annual increase of 11.46 [2]. - CSI 1000 futures: The current price is 8195.4, with a daily increase of 0, a weekly increase of 1.83, a monthly increase of 10.21, a quarterly increase of 10.21, and an annual increase of 10.21 [2]. 3.1.2 Bond Futures - 2 - year bond futures: The current price is 102.376, with a daily increase of 0.03, a weekly increase of 0.04, a monthly decrease of 0.08, a quarterly decrease of 0.08, and an annual decrease of 0.08 [2]. - 5 - year bond futures: The current price is 105.76, with a daily increase of 0.09, a weekly increase of 0.18, and no change in monthly, quarterly, and annual terms [2]. - 10 - year bond futures: The current price is 108.035, with a daily increase of 0.12, a weekly increase of 0.25, a monthly increase of 0.16, a quarterly increase of 0.16, and an annual increase of 0.16 [2]. - 30 - year bond futures: The current price is 111.19, with a daily decrease of 0.02, a weekly increase of 0.29, a monthly decrease of 0.2, a quarterly decrease of 0.2, and an annual decrease of 0.2 [2]. 3.1.3 Foreign Exchange - US dollar index: The current price is 99.0753, with a daily decrease of 0.11, a weekly decrease of 0.06, a monthly increase of 0.82, a quarterly increase of 0.82, and an annual increase of 0.82 [2]. - US dollar central parity rate (pips): The current price is 6.9729, with a daily decrease of 48, a weekly decrease of 54, a monthly decrease of 161, a quarterly decrease of 161, and an annual decrease of 161 [2]. 3.1.4 Interest Rates - 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate (bp): The current price is 1.5668, with a daily increase of 1.94, a weekly increase of 9.41, a monthly decrease of 41.53, a quarterly decrease of 41.53, and an annual decrease of 41.53 [2]. - 10 - year Chinese government bond yield (bp): The current price is 1.8494, with a daily decrease of 0.25, a weekly decrease of 2.88, a monthly increase of 0.21, a quarterly increase of 0.21, and an annual increase of 0.21 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury yield (bp): The current price is 4.15, with a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 3 [2]. - 10 - year US Treasury 10Y - 2Y spread (bp): The current price is 0.64, with a daily decrease of 1, no change weekly, a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 7 [2]. - 10 - year break - even inflation rate (bp): The current price is 1.86, with a daily decrease of 2, a weekly decrease of 4, a monthly, quarterly, and annual decrease of 7 [2]. 3.1.5 Domestic Commodities - Shipping: The current price of container shipping to Europe is 1312.77, with a daily decrease of 2.27%, a weekly decrease of 6.01%, a monthly decrease of 13.74%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases [5]. - Precious metals: Gold is at 1038.23, with a daily decrease of 0.52%, a weekly increase of 2.9%, a monthly increase of 5.96%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; silver is at 22657.59, with a daily decrease of 0.41%, a weekly increase of 20.98%, a monthly increase of 32.67%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. - Non - ferrous metals: Aluminum is at 24383.9, with a daily decrease of 0.88%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 6.24%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; tin is at 432819.23, with a daily increase of 4.8%, a weekly increase of 22.71%, a monthly increase of 33.77%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil is at 447.52, with a daily decrease of 0.16%, a weekly increase of 2.99%, a monthly increase of 3.38%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; fuel oil is at 2569.23, with a daily decrease of 0.24%, a weekly increase of 2.76%, a monthly increase of 4.84%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [5]. 3.1.6 Overseas Commodities - Energy: NYMEX WTI crude oil is at 61.02, with a daily increase of 0.15%, a weekly increase of 3.81%, a monthly increase of 6.29%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; ICE Brent crude oil is at 65.39, with a daily decrease of 0.12%, a weekly increase of 3.76%, a monthly increase of 7.36%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Precious metals: COMEX gold is at 4633.9, with a daily increase of 0.76%, a weekly increase of 2.56%, a monthly increase of 6.97%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; COMEX silver is at 93.185, with a daily increase of 7.93%, a weekly increase of 16.79%, a monthly increase of 31.28%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Non - ferrous metals: LME aluminum is at 13188.5, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a weekly increase of 1.47%, a monthly increase of 5.54%, and the same quarterly and annual increases; LME tin is at 53462, with a daily increase of 7.94%, a weekly increase of 17.34%, a monthly increase of 32.1%, and the same quarterly and annual increases [8]. - Agricultural products: CBOT soybeans are at 1042.5, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a weekly decrease of 1.91%, a monthly decrease of 0.45%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases; CBOT corn is at 422.25, with a daily increase of 0.6%, a weekly decrease of 5.17%, a monthly decrease of 4.25%, and the same quarterly and annual decreases [8]. 3.2 Sector Analysis 3.2.1 Financial Sector - Stock index futures: Double - factor boost to the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key point to watch is the situation of incremental funds [10]. - Stock index options: Option covered writing to increase returns. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the liquidity of the options market [10]. - Bond futures: The sentiment of long - term bonds is still weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the implementation of monetary policy [10]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - Gold: The expectation of loose liquidity is clear, and geopolitical conflicts have resurfaced. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [10]. - Silver: The spot market is structurally tight, sensitive to liquidity, and driven by the pro - cyclical factor. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the US fundamental performance, the Fed's monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [10]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - Container shipping to Europe: Near - month shipments before the Spring Festival support the price, and the risk of resuming flights in the far - month needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are the shipping company's resumption plan in 2026, the signing of long - term contracts at the end of the year, and the support of shippers' shipments before the Spring Festival [10]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - Coking coal: The supply - demand structure has improved, and the futures and spot prices have stopped falling and rebounded. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are coal mine复产, Mongolian coal imports, and replenishment by middle and downstream enterprises [10]. - Glass: Production has decreased month - on - month, and demand has not improved. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the spot sales - to - production ratio [10]. - Soda ash: Supply has increased significantly, and supply still exceeds demand. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the soda ash inventory [10]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - Copper: Inventory continues to accumulate, and the copper price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [10]. - Aluminum: The Mozal aluminum plant faces shutdown, and the aluminum price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [10]. - Tin: Downstream demand has strong resilience, and the tin price fluctuates strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the expectation of the resumption of production in Wa State and the change in demand improvement expectation [10]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals Sector - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and the risk of Iran needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [12]. - LPG: The strong reality is weakening, and the implementation of downstream load reduction needs attention. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key point to watch is the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [12]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price fluctuates in an over - valued range. The short - term judgment is a downward trend, and the key points to watch are sanctions and supply disruptions [12]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - Corn/starch: As the Spring Festival approaches, inventory replenishment boosts the price. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are demand, the macro - environment, and weather [12]. - Live pigs: There is second - fattening in the north, and the pig price rises in the north and falls in the south. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and the key points to watch are breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [12]. - Natural rubber: It fluctuates widely, and the trend remains unchanged. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and the key points to watch are the weather in the producing areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [12].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - and medium - term, the supply - demand of tin ingots is expected to improve, and nickel and zinc have supply - related speculations. After a rapid price increase, profit - taking by funds led to an adjustment. However, the logic of a weak US dollar expectation and supply - disruption concerns remains unchanged. Opportunities to buy copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel at low prices should be watched for, and downstream industrial customers should pay attention to restocking opportunities during the adjustment. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply - disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin persist, leading to an expected tightening of supply - demand and a positive outlook for their prices [2]. - For each metal: - Copper: Supply disruptions continue to increase, and the copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate strongly [3][7]. - Alumina: The fundamentals are weak, and the alumina price is under pressure and expected to fluctuate [3][8]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, the aluminum price has declined, but in the short - term, it is expected to remain strong with fluctuations due to positive macro - expectations and a tight supply - demand outlook [3][12]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][14]. - Zinc: The LME has suspended the delivery of KZ and YP zinc, and the SHFE zinc price has broken through 25,000 yuan/ton. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [3][17]. - Lead: Social inventory has significantly increased, limiting the upside potential of the lead price, and it is expected to fluctuate [3][22]. - Nickel: Policy expectations are in a game with the weak reality, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [3][23]. - Stainless steel: The nickel - iron price continues to rise, and the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate [3][26]. - Tin: Supply remains in short - supply, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level [3][27]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Information analysis**: The US December CPI data was in line with expectations. The 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee was set at 0 dollars/ton. December SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 15 had a higher average premium than the previous trading day. A Chilean copper mine's union will start a strike, and the production of a mine in Ecuador has been postponed [7]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the Fed may continue to be loose, supporting the copper price. On the supply - demand side, copper - mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to supply constraints and increasing disruptions [8]. Alumina - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot prices of alumina in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [8]. - **Main logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. Fundamentally, high - cost capacity has some fluctuations, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the cost support is weak. However, as the valuation is in a low range, price fluctuations may increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to fluctuate due to an oversupply in reality and a low - range valuation [9]. Aluminum - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SMM AOO average price and the premium/discount of aluminum decreased. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum bars in major domestic consumption areas increased, and the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts also increased. The Q1 2026 aluminum - ingot premium in Japanese ports increased significantly, and the December 2025 export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main logic**: Macroscopically, the US interest - rate cut expectation and China's new - infrastructure policies are positive. On the supply side, domestic production capacity is high, and overseas new - project progress is uncertain. On the demand side, high prices have suppressed demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong with fluctuations. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to be tight, and the price center is expected to rise [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the prices of some aluminum - alloy products decreased, and the warehouse receipts increased. An Indonesian electrolytic - aluminum project has started production [14]. - **Main logic**: The cost is supported by a tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is restricted by raw - material shortages and profit issues, and policies may also affect supply. The demand is mainly for刚需 in the short - term and is expected to improve marginally in the medium - term. The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the warehouse - receipt inventory has increased. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short - and medium - term, the aluminum - alloy price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to cost support and a tight supply - demand balance [16]. Zinc - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the spot premiums of 0 zinc in different regions varied. The SMM seven - region zinc - ingot inventory decreased slightly. The LME has suspended the further delivery of certain zinc brands since January 14, 2026 [19]. - **Main logic**: The macro - outlook is relatively stable. The zinc - ore supply is tight, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic zinc - ingot supply pressure is not significant in the short - term. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall demand expectation is average. In the short - term, the zinc price may remain high and fluctuate, and in the long - term, it may decline [20]. - **Outlook**: In January, the zinc price is expected to fluctuate as the production has increased slightly, the demand is in the off - season, but exports and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector support the price [21]. Lead - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the price of waste electric - vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the price of SMM1 lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots and the SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased. The LME has suspended the further delivery of a certain lead brand since January 14, 2026 [22]. - **Main logic**: The spot premium and the original - recycled lead price difference have increased, and the futures warehouse receipts have increased. The supply has increased as some smelters have resumed production, and the demand is mixed, with a decline in electric - bicycle orders but an improvement in automobile - battery orders. Overall, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. - **Outlook**: As the lead - ingot production recovers and the demand weakens marginally, but the waste - battery cost remains high, the lead price is expected to fluctuate [23]. Nickel - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts and the LME nickel inventory increased. An Indonesian nickel - mining company has fully resumed operations, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel - ore production quota in 2026. The SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [24]. - **Main logic**: The supply of nickel is under pressure as domestic and Indonesian production remains high. The demand is in the off - season, and the overall fundamentals are in surplus. The Indonesian nickel - ore quota is uncertain, and its actual implementation needs to be monitored [25]. - **Outlook**: In January, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate as the fundamentals are not significantly improved, but the Indonesian policy may affect the supply - demand balance [25]. Stainless Steel - **Information analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 15, the spot price of stainless steel in Foshan had a certain discount compared to the futures contract. The average price of high - nickel pig iron increased, and the SMM expects a significant increase in the Indonesian domestic - trade nickel - ore price in the second half of January 2026 [26]. - **Main logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the increase in nickel - iron price. The production in December decreased, and there may be a slight increase in January. The terminal demand is cautious. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipts are at a low level [26]. - **Outlook**: In January, the stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate as the production may increase slightly, the demand is weak in the off - season, but the cost is supported [26]. Tin - **Information analysis**: On January 15, the LME tin warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the SHFE tin warehouse receipts increased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [27]. - **Main logic**: The supply of tin is a major concern. Supply disruptions in Myanmar, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to limit production. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic situation and the growth of industries such as semiconductors, photovoltaics, and new - energy vehicles. Overall, the tin price is expected to be strong [28]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain [28]. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On January 15, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial - product index of CITIC Futures all decreased. The non - ferrous metal index increased by 0.09% on the day, 2.13% in the past 5 days, 12.72% in the past month, and 6.27% since the beginning of the year [156][158].