Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin price may show an oscillating upward trend, with the short - term SHFE tin fluctuating in the range of 305,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on the low - buying and long - selling strategy [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On December 12, 2025, the tin price soared. By the close, the main contract of SHFE tin rose 4.54% to 833,000 yuan/ton, hitting a new high for the year. Supply disruptions and low inventory in the industrial chain are the main reasons for the strong performance of the tin price [3] - The security situation in eastern Congo has deteriorated recently. As the main tin - producing area, the escalating situation has kept the risk of tin ore supply high, intensifying market concerns. After two years of inventory digestion, the inventory in the entire tin industry chain is at a significantly low level, increasing the supply - demand contradiction and strongly supporting the tin price [3] Fundamental Situation - The supply side remains the core concern of the market. Problems such as financial pressure and blocked explosive transportation have slowed down the resumption of production at the Peruvian tin plant. Indonesia's refined tin supply is affected by RKAB approval and is expected to be restricted in the first quarter of next year. Political instability and poor infrastructure in Africa have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [4] - As of December 5, the processing fee (TC) for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative tin ingot production was 182,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In November, the daily output was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1%. Some smelting enterprises temporarily stopped production due to raw material supply problems, causing a slight decline in tin ingot production in November. The long - term shortage of raw materials has led to the operating rate of most smelting enterprises being below 70% of the production capacity plan for a long time [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the continuous tightening of the ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters, low tin concentrate processing fees, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products. In terms of demand, the United States is still in the late - cycle stage, and fiscal expansion is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle sectors continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-12 美联储降息靴子落地，铂钯延续震荡 12⽉11⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.40元/克，涨跌幅为-0.48%； 钯主⼒合约收盘价为385.25元/克，涨跌幅为-0.68%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳举行长达五小时的闭门会谈，双方未 就乌克兰问题达成妥协方案，俄乌冲突缓和预期略有降温。需求方 面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松， 但短期现货紧缺导致价格快速走高，叠加美联储再度进入降息周期， 钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货紧缺叠加宏观环境相对偏好，短期钯金价格震荡偏强。中 长期关注美国对俄罗斯钯调查落地后现货供需趋松所带来的价格回落 风险，预计钯金价格震荡运行。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变 化；主产区 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 12月FOMC会议较预期偏鸽，白银再创新高 ——中信期货晨报20251212 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | THE MAN MALL PROPERTY CONTRACT PRODUCTION 日度涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4539.6 | -0.76% | -0.76% | 0.75% | -1.70% | 15.78% | | 股指 | 上证50期货 | 2969.8 | -0.37% | -0.92% | 0.22% | -0.64% | 10.90% | | | 中证500期货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Macro - disturbances have temporarily ended, and the off - season fundamentals are poor. Prices still face downward adjustment pressure, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of winter storage and replenishment expectations [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month, arrivals decreased significantly, port inventories continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories decreased. Iron water production continued to decline sharply, steel mill profitability weakened, and replenishment demand was released slowly. Short - term ore prices are expected to oscillate [1][8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and inventories accumulated. However, electric furnace profits were acceptable, and the demand from long - and short - process steel enterprises for scrap steel still had support. It is expected that the spot price will follow the decline [10]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support has weakened, and the expectation of the second - round price cut is strong. But the coking and steel enterprises have gradually started winter storage and replenishment, so the fundamentals still provide support. The current disk valuation is too low, and there is insufficient drive for a significant downward movement. It is expected to oscillate following coking coal [2][14]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals have marginally improved, but the market remains pessimistic in the short term due to bearish funds. After the delivery is settled and the mid - and downstream winter storage and replenishment are gradually launched, the fundamentals and market sentiment will gradually recover, and the disk valuation is expected to repair upward [2][15]. 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: High costs support prices, but the market supply - demand is loose, cost transmission is difficult, and there is insufficient drive for the disk to rise. It is expected that the manganese silicon futures price will oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][18][19]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: High costs support the price bottom, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the disk. It is expected that the silicon ferrosilicon futures price will oscillate at a low level following the sector [2][20]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There is still an expectation of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventories will always suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [2][16]. - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate. In the long run, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [2][6][18]. 3.5 Steel - Spot market transactions were weak, steel production decreased, and demand was weakening. The inventory of steel continued to decline, but the inventory level was still higher than the same period last year, and there were signs of inventory accumulation in steel mills. The steel disk is expected to continue its weak adjustment [8]. 3.6 Commodity Index - On December 11, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, the specialty index (Commodity 20 Index, Industrial Products Index) all declined, and the steel industry chain index also showed a downward trend in different time - periods [102][104]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central economic work conference has a positive tone, and the improvement of demand expectations may boost basic metals. In the short - to - medium term, positive macro - expectations and supply disruption concerns continue to support prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin remain, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - For different metals, the report gives specific views: copper prices will oscillate and rise; alumina prices will continue to be under pressure; aluminum prices will oscillate and rise; alloy prices will oscillate at a high level; zinc prices will oscillate at a high level; lead prices will stabilize and rebound; nickel prices will run weakly; stainless - steel prices will correct; tin prices will oscillate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: The Fed continues to cut interest rates, and copper prices oscillate and rise, showing a trend of being oscillatory and strong in the medium - term [6][7][8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cuts interest rates and restarts balance - sheet expansion, providing liquidity support. The supply of copper ore is tight, and CSPT will reduce the production capacity of mine copper by more than 10% in 2026. The terminal demand is weak, but the spot is at a premium, and the overseas squeeze on positions boosts prices [6][7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure, with an expected oscillatory trend [8][9]. - **Analysis**: High - cost production capacity fluctuates, and there are short - term disturbances, but the supply contraction is insufficient, with strong inventory accumulation. Raw material prices are weak, and the futures - spot price difference is large. Although the valuation is low, the price may still be under pressure [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Aluminum inventory has decreased, and aluminum prices oscillate and rise, showing an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - term and a potential upward shift of the price center in the medium - term [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The macro - environment is complex, with fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations. The domestic production capacity is high, while overseas supply may tighten in the long - term. The terminal demand is stable, and the inventory is decreasing [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: Cost support continues, and the market oscillates at a high level, with an oscillatory and strong trend in the short - and medium - term [14][15]. - **Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has production reduction risks, while the demand side shows marginal improvement, and the inventory shows a mixed trend [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level, with an overall oscillatory trend [16][18][19]. - **Analysis**: The Fed's dovish stance and weak economic data increase the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The short - term supply of zinc ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The inventory may not accumulate, but there is still a potential for price decline in the long - term [18][19]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices stabilize and rebound, showing an oscillatory trend [20][21]. - **Analysis**: The spot premium is stable, and the supply of lead ingots is tight in some regions. The demand from the battery industry is relatively good, and the inventory is at a low level [20][21]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: LME inventory remains at a high level, and nickel prices run weakly, showing an oscillatory trend [21][23]. - **Analysis**: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening. The overall supply of nickel resources is loose, and the inventory is high, but there are potential supply - side policy risks [21][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: Weak nickel prices drive the stainless - steel market to correct, with an expected range - bound oscillation [24]. - **Analysis**: The cost support of nickel iron is strengthening, but the stainless - steel production is expected to decline in December. The inventory may accumulate in the off - season, but the profit compression and cost support limit the price decline [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: Supply concerns remain unresolved, and tin prices oscillate and strengthen [25][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is tight, with slow复产 in mines, restricted exports from Indonesia, and limited production in Africa. The demand is growing in semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries, which will push up the price [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (non - ferrous metals index) are presented, with specific values and changes on December 11, 2025 [154][156].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-12-12 纸浆盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 油脂：近期或震荡盘整，关注进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：进口豆溢价成交，双粕或延续震荡 玉米/淀粉：现货上量价格承压，盘面震荡运行 生猪：基本面依旧宽松，价格弱势运行 天然橡胶：宽幅震荡，仍无强驱动 合成橡胶：盘面情绪偏暖 棉花：棉价走强，后续关注库存变动 白糖：短期下方支撑较强 纸浆：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 双胶纸：情绪低迷，窄幅震荡 原木：买方接货意愿低迷，原木震荡走弱 风险因素：宏观大幅变动；气候异常；供需超预期变化 【异动品种】 纸浆观点：盘面异动现行，消息面接续利多 逻辑:昨日纸浆期货大幅波动，夜盘期间05合约大幅上涨，一度接近涨 停，随后日盘价格有所回落，但依旧录得显著上涨。从消息面来看，夜盘 盘面异动时并无明显产业消息，在日盘期间银星公布涨价信息。我们认为 昨日的价格异动更多来自于资金端，而非信息面。基本面角度看，近期产 业消息面偏多变化。1、针、阔叶浆在美金盘报价上行，同时国内仍处于 下游生产高峰时期的状态下，价格上涨仍能向下传导。随着内盘针阔价差 的收窄，阔叶浆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Silver supply mainly comes from mineral production and recycling, while demand includes industrial use, investment use, photographic use, and jewelry use. The silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeds 100%, resulting in limited impact of supply - demand gap changes on prices. Silver prices mainly follow gold prices, and the gold - silver ratio is negatively correlated with copper prices and rises during the Federal Reserve's interest - rate cutting cycle [13][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industrial Chain - **Supply and Demand Composition** - Supply is divided into mining, recycling, and official sales. Demand mainly consists of industrial use, investment demand, photographic applications, and jewelry manufacturing. In terms of percentages, supply is 81.0% from mining, 18.7% from recycling, 0.1% from official sales, and 0.1% from net hedging supply. Demand is 58% for industrial use, 2% for photography, 17% for jewelry, 5% for silverware, and 18% for net physical investment [20][23]. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces)** - From 2021 - 2025F, total supply ranges from 1,023 to 1,031, with mine production between 831 - 835 and recycling between 184 - 194. Total demand ranges from 1,103 to 1,148, with industrial demand (total) between 564 - 681. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, 28 in 2024, and 0 in 2025F [24]. - **China Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (Million ounces)** - From 2021 - 2024, total supply ranges from 146 to 150, with mine production between 110 - 113 and recycling between 33 - 40. Total demand ranges from 184 to 298, with industrial demand (total) between 152 - 275. The market balance is negative throughout the period, and the silver price (London price) is 25 in 2021, 22 in 2022, 23 in 2023, and 28 in 2024 [26]. 3.2 Silver Contract - **SGE Margin Contracts** - The contract code is Ag(T + D), with a trading unit of 1 kg/lot, a quotation unit of yuan/kg, and a minimum price fluctuation of 1 yuan/kg. Trading hours are from 9:00 - 15:30 during the day and 19:50 - 02:30 at night. The contract has a continuous trading term, and physical delivery is of silver ingots with a standard weight of 15 kg and a fineness not less than 99.99% [33]. - **SHFE Futures Contract** - The trading unit is 15 kilograms/lot, the price quotation is yuan (RMB)/gram, and the minimum price fluctuation is 1 yuan/gram. The contract months are from 1 - 12. The last trading day is the 15th day of the contract month (adjusted for holidays), and the delivery period is two consecutive business days after the last trading day. The minimum trade margin is 4% of the contract value [36]. - **Silver Price Spread** - The price spread is calculated as SGE Silver – Loco London/31.1035 (troy ounce) * VAT rate * RMB exchange rate [44]. 3.3 Pricing Model - **Limited Sensitivity to Supply - Demand Fluctuations** - With the silver inventory - to - demand ratio exceeding 100% and a relatively high absolute inventory level, fluctuations in the supply - demand gap have a diminished impact on prices [51]. - **Gold Sets the Trend, with Industrial Demand Shaping Price Sensitivity** - Silver's absolute price follows gold. The gold - silver ratio, which indicates relative elasticity, is negatively correlated with copper prices, mainly because silver's industrial properties are affected by the macro - demand cycle [55]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio and Monetary Policy Cycle** - During the Federal Reserve's rate - cutting cycle, the gold - silver ratio rises [56].

2025年12月10日,苯乙烯2601合约、纯苯2603合约收盘价分别为6469元/吨、5440元/吨,当日跌幅分别为-1.45%、-2.09%,下跌明显。 下跌原因 (1) 检修消息反复。某华东大厂装置原定于1月开始检修CDU及重整装置，涉及45万吨年纯苯，12月9日盘后有取消传闻，纯苯烘需改善预期落空，市场重新交易抄苯账库的观实压力; （2) 前都必易流动性偏紧的情绪消退。上局市场交易苯乙烯实际流动性偏紧、市场情绪偏强、近日无进一步发酵，苯乙烯现货基差松动; (3) 苯乙烯胺幅大于呼苯。纯苯近端压力更大，远月030形 改善预期,导致纯苯主力跌幅小于苯乙烯。 后向展望 检修消息扰动,纯苯苯乙烯日内下跌 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 版 新网论 2025年12月10日 投资咨询号:Z0021451 检修消息反复，仍需关注装置检修的限定，若检修取消，纯苯高库存的观实交易重新成为主线。纯苯和苯乙烯泥期扁死，若延续检修，纯苯烘干燥液酶阿对ｳ冲现实压力，预计纯苯齿端膜 荡,苯乙烯12月整体供需偏紧,震荡偏强。 风险因素:油价波动;宏观政策变动;内外盘装置预期外变化。 图表 2:纯苯港口库存(隆众) 图表 1: 苯乙烯 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-12-11 股市政策博弈情绪渐浓，债市延续暖意 股指期货：国内政策博弈情绪渐浓，但缩量限制持续性 股指期权：备兑防御增厚 国债期货：债市情绪延续暖意 股指期货方面，国内政策博弈情绪渐浓，但缩量限制持续性。周三沪 指探底回升，险守3900点，量能继续缩至1.79万亿元，局部出现政策博 弈，但难凝聚进攻共识。日内异动有二，一是午后万科涨停，地产强势， 彭博社称中金公司再度参与万科纾困，且出现买房贴息的预期，政策博弈 暂难证伪；二是零售板块活跃，出现多支连板股，或因重要会议提出扩大 内需，配合全国零售业创新发展大会召开，事件发酵。相对应的，存量市 高低切换，前半周强势的PCB、光伏板块出现调整，电力设备、计算机行 业领跌。另外，周四凌晨将公布美联储12月议息会议决议，从联邦利率基 金期货市场显示，降息预期消化充分，因此对A股不构成额外利好。缩量 环境中，板块辐射有限，难形成持续主线，"春躁"进攻时点仍需等待， 操作上，我们看长做多，短期关注涨价链及高股息。 ⾦融衍⽣品团队 研究员: 康遵禹 从业资格号:F03090802 投 ...