中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-09-09 股指期货方面，轮动切向低位科技概念和哑铃。周一沪指高位震荡， 量能维持2.5万亿元，双创风格出现退潮，创业板指走弱，风格向哑铃切 换。退潮有两大推动力，一是上周五美国公布的非农就业人数大幅低于预 期，海外交易衰退和9月降息预期，美股AI科技股集中回撤，外盘风险偏 好下降，映射拖累国内算力硬件股，导致通信行业领跌；二是上周五" 反内卷"板块再度异动，但政策传言均未得到印证，难催化月度主线交 易。资金向低位科技板块和哑铃结构轮动，机器人、PEEK材料概念股爆 发，小微盘换手率、量能占比提升。由于当前双创强势股过于拥挤，后续 风格层面存在均值回归的可能性，当下获利盘较多，建议以哑铃结构应对 市场分歧，短期建议配置红利ETF+IM多单。 股指期权方面，波动率放大的可能性较小。昨日现货端波动放缓， 期权端量能下降，较上周金额下降约30%。波动率方面，高波品种昨日波 动率下跌2%-3%绝对值水平，而50、300ETF期权波动率基本维持在21%左右 的绝对水平，年内分位数较高。但当前我们认为波动再度升高的概率偏 弱：1）隐历差逐渐收窄，从年内以及滚动250日波动率分位 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - Most hot topic-related heat signal indices are at relatively high levels [5] - Historical experience shows that when the industry heat signal index is at a relatively high level, future excess returns may underperform [5] - Technology stocks are under pressure in the momentum dimension, which may drive quantitative funds back to the micro-cap style, and the future style is expected to switch to a dumbbell structure [5]

图说金融(20250904): 牛市中的调整空间有多大 1、历史经验显示, A股快速上行之后的调整幅度约在10%附近 风险提示: 仅作为数据展示,不构成策略建议 | | | | 历次快速上行之后的调整幅度 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上证综指 | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证1000 | Wind全A指数 | 持续时间 | | 20070529-20070705 | -16.59% | -15. 13% | -30. 36% | -33.93% | -21.05% | 27 | | 20090804-20090831 | -23. 15% | -25. 26% | -19.45% | -18. 40% | -22. 62% | 19 | | 20150126-20150206 | -9.08% | -8. 19% | -3. 89% | -1. 74% | -5. 91% | 9 | | 20161128-20170116 | -5. 30% | -6. 10% | -9. 59% | -13.16% | -8. 86 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the week ending August 29, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day, and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of demand in the refining sector. Diesel inventories resumed their upward trend, gasoline inventories declined significantly, and the total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated. The apparent demand for refined oil products decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 838,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 509,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 776,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 796,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 293,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 215,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 316,000 barrels in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - US refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Affected by the military parade, iron - water production decreased, leading to a decline in steel production, especially in hot - rolled production. During the military parade, construction sites and rolling mills in some northern regions stopped working, causing a week - on - week weakening of demand, with a significant drop in hot - rolled apparent consumption. Both rebar and hot - rolled steel inventories continued to accumulate. The supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory accumulation maintained a relatively fast pace, showing a weak fundamental situation. Recently, steel inventories have been continuously accumulating, the fundamentals are weak, and the market's expectations for peak - season demand are relatively conservative, putting pressure on the market. However, after the military parade, iron - water production may return to a relatively high level. Meanwhile, steel circulation indicates that vehicle traffic in mountainous areas is gradually resuming, and some construction sites and rolling mills will gradually resume work. Attention should be paid to the phased restocking demand after the military parade during the peak season, which may support the futures prices [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand was 2.0207 million tons (-21,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 7.57% [2]. - Hot - rolled apparent demand was 3.0536 million tons (-153,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.63% [2]. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.2783 million tons (-299,400 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.49% [2]. Supply - Rebar production was 2.1868 million tons (-18,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85% [2]. - Hot - rolled production was 3.1424 million tons (-105,000 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.23% [2]. - The production of the five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons (-239,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 2.71% [2]. Inventory - Rebar inventory was 6.4 million tons (+166,100 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.66% [2]. - Hot - rolled inventory was 3.7434 million tons (+88,800 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.43% [2]. - The inventory of the five major steel products was 15.007 million tons (+328,200 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.24% [2].

日分 废钢周度数据报告 2025/9/4 | 255家合计 | 库存可用天数 | 环差 | 同差 | | 132家长流程 库存可用天数 | 环差 | 同差 | | 89家短流程 库存可用天数 | 环差 | 同差 | | 29家全流程 库存可用天数 | 环差 | 同差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-09-04 | 8. 18 | -0. 05 | -2. 24 | 2025-09-04 | 8. 39 | 0. 19 | 0. 91 | 2025-09-04 | 7.06 | -0. 13 | -4. 63 | 2025-09-04 | 9.42 | -0. 59 | -6. 32 | | 2025-08-28 | 8. 23 | 0. 02 | -2. 48 | 2025-08-28 | 8.2 | 0. 18 | 0. 91 | 2025-08-28 | 7.19 | 0. 14 | -6.6 | 2025-08-28 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the week ending August 29, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 2.415 million barrels, with net crude oil imports rising by 434,000 barrels per day and the estimated single - week crude oil production decreasing by 16,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate dropped from 94.6% to 94.3%, indicating a continued weakening of refinery - level demand. Among petroleum products, diesel inventories resumed an upward trend while gasoline inventories declined significantly. The total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products accumulated, and the apparent demand for refined oil decreased. Although single - week data has limited implications, there are still concerns about future crude oil inventories after the decline in refinery utilization [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Inventory Data - U.S. commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 2.415 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 2.392 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 1.59 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 0.838 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 0.509 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.776 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline inventory change: decreased by 3.795 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.236 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel inventory change: increased by 1.681 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.786 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 0.796 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.293 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 0.215 million barrels, compared with an increase of 0.316 million barrels in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.102 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 4.394 million barrels in the previous period [5]. Production and Consumption Data - U.S. crude oil production: 13.423 million barrels per day, compared with 13.439 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refined oil apparent demand: 20.652 million barrels per day, compared with 21.614 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. gasoline apparent demand: 9.117 million barrels per day, compared with 9.24 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. diesel apparent demand: 3.768 million barrels per day, compared with 4.141 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. Trade and Refinery Data - U.S. crude oil imports: 6.742 million barrels per day, compared with 6.234 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. crude oil exports: 3.884 million barrels per day, compared with 3.81 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume: 16.869 million barrels per day, compared with 16.88 million barrels per day in the previous period [5]. - U.S. refinery utilization rate: 94.3%, compared with 94.6% in the previous period [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2) Core Viewpoints - The rotation wind vane consists of option market sentiment and traditional capital - related parts, and their resonance forms large/small - cap strength signals. Daily long - short operations on large and small caps can be carried out according to the signals, or use IM as the underlying position and adjust style exposure when the signal indicates that small caps are weak to achieve index enhancement. The September 2025 latest rotation wind vane signal shows option sentiment 1 and capital aspect - 1, suggesting to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Performance of Sub - strategies from 2025/4/1 - 2025/9/4 - For the 300/1000 long - short strategy, the interval return is 8.56%, the annualized return is 20.72%, the Calmar ratio is 5.39%, and the maximum drawdown is 3.84 [2]. - For the 1000 index enhancement strategy, the interval return is 13.21%, the annualized return is 32.93%, the Calmar ratio is 6.58%, and the maximum drawdown is 5.00 [2]. - For the CSI 1000, the interval return is 13.08%, the annualized return is 32.57%, the Calmar ratio is 12.44%, and the maximum drawdown is 2.62 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for each product, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc. [9][10][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ will comprehensively review the current situation before deciding on future production. The market is concerned about the potential increase in production, which has led to a decline in oil prices. Economic data also shows a cooling labor market in the US. [2] - Most chemical products are dragged down by the decline in crude oil prices. The polyester chain and oil products have significant drops. PTA and MEG are expected to de - stock in September but may re - stock from October to December. Methanol, despite high port inventories, has a strong recent trend due to external procurement by olefin enterprises. [3] - Investors should approach the oil - chemical industry with an oscillating mindset and wait for the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in the Chinese petrochemical industry. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Product 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced, and oil prices are seen as weakly oscillating. - **Market News**: OPEC+ may consider further increasing oil production in the Sunday meeting. US API and EIA inventory data show mixed trends. Trump may talk with Putin and hinted at imposing more sanctions on Russia. - **Main Logic**: The OPEC+ production policy on September 7 remains uncertain, and the expectation of supply surplus in the fourth quarter is hard to disprove. US commercial crude inventories increased, and refinery demand weakened. [9] 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: With the decline of crude oil, asphalt has fallen below the important threshold of 3,500 yuan/ton. - **Main Logic**: The market refocused on negative factors such as tariff hikes and OPEC+ production increases. The premium of asphalt has decreased, and demand remains pessimistic. [10] 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has followed the decline of crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Negative factors such as tariff hikes and OPEC+ production increases have affected the market. Although there is geopolitical premium in some regions, the feedstock demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased, and the three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. [11] 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has fallen sharply following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces multiple negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and its supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. [12] 3.1.5 PX - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient cost support, and there is a game between differentiated expectations and tight supply - demand. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices have oscillated downward, weakening cost support. The market focus has shifted from short - term tight supply - demand to long - term inventory accumulation expectations. Fundamentally, supply is stable and demand is increasing, with limited inventory pressure. [13] 3.1.6 PTA - **Viewpoint**: Poor downstream procurement enthusiasm and pessimistic expectations have led to a price plunge. - **Main Logic**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, and market sentiment has been affected by new device commissioning news. Fundamentally, supply has decreased and demand is stable, but polyester factories' procurement enthusiasm is low due to pessimistic expectations. [13] 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The port will return to inventory accumulation, and the price of pure benzene will oscillate weakly. - **Main Logic**: More naphtha buyers are seeking October shipments, and the supply of naphtha is expected to tighten. Pure benzene imports are increasing, and it is expected to start accumulating inventory next week. The demand of downstream products has not improved significantly. [14] 3.1.8 Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The decline has slowed, and the market is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The decline is mainly due to the weakening of anti - over - competition sentiment in the energy - chemical sector and the black commodity market. The inventory of styrene is at a high level in the past five years, and the demand of downstream products is weak. [15] 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: There is a game between low - inventory support and differentiated expectations. - **Main Logic**: The price is oscillating at a low level. Although there are expectations of future inventory accumulation, the current inventory is at a historical low, and the possibility of continuous inventory accumulation is small. [16] 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The sales performance is mediocre, and the sustainability of the peak season is questionable. - **Main Logic**: The upstream market has oscillated downward, and cost support is insufficient. Fundamentally, supply is stable and demand is weak, production and sales have declined again, and industry inventories are accumulating. [18] 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: With upstream cost concessions, the processing fee has limited self - driving force for repair. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost performance is poor, and the price is significantly dragged down by costs. The processing fee of bottle chips has been passively repaired, but the overall repair strength is limited due to weak self - driving force. [19] 3.1.12 Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There are still overseas disturbance expectations in the far - month, and the methanol price is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: On September 4, the methanol price oscillated. The inventory in the inland area is at a relatively low level year - on - year. Recently, the far - month shutdown expectation has disturbed the market. The downstream olefin fundamentals have limited support. [22] 3.1.13 Urea - **Viewpoint**: The market is weakly stable, and after the Indian tender is announced, it is expected to oscillate strongly. - **Main Logic**: After the Indian NFL urea import tender news was announced, although the price is lower than the previous round, it is still expected to be positive. [23] 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **Viewpoint**: Oil prices continue to decline, and LLDPE is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices have declined, and there are uncertainties in geopolitical situations. The measures to address over - capacity in the domestic petrochemical industry have limited actual support. The macro - economic support in the "Golden September and Silver October" is limited, and the self - fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure. [27] 3.1.15 PP - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to the support strength at the previous low, and PP is oscillating. - **Main Logic**: The supply of PP is still increasing, and there is inventory pressure in the upstream and mid - stream. Oil prices are declining in the short - term, and there are geopolitical uncertainties. The measures to address over - capacity in the domestic petrochemical industry have a neutral impact. The PP price is approaching the previous low, and the support strength needs to be observed. [29] 3.1.16 PL - **Viewpoint**: PL follows the short - term fluctuations of PP. - **Main Logic**: The enterprise inventory is controllable, and the market is mainly stable. The downstream demand is based on low - price procurement, and the trading volume is limited. The PP - PL processing fee is the focus of the market, and the current range of 500 - 600 is relatively reasonable. [29] 3.1.17 PVC - **Viewpoint**: Weak reality suppresses PVC, and it is running weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, domestic anti - over - competition policies have not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with cost reduction, production decline in September due to autumn inspections, stable downstream start - up, uncertain export expectations, and weakening raw material prices. [33] 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price has temporarily peaked, and the market is cautiously weak. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, domestic anti - over - competition policies have not been implemented, and the probability of overseas interest rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals have marginally improved, with increased alumina replenishment demand, improved non - aluminum start - up, increased export orders, and reduced production due to inspections. [34] 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.4, - 0.04), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.81, - 0.06), etc. [36] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each product has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, such as asphalt (basis: 72, change: 72; warehouse receipts: 69400), etc. [37] - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, such as 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 195, - 3), etc. [38] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring of multiple products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented. [39][52][64] 3.3 Market Indexes - **Comprehensive Indexes**: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all showed declines on September 4, 2025, with declines of 0.33%, 0.34%, and 0.36% respectively. [280] - **Energy Index**: On September 4, 2025, the energy index was 1192.96, with a daily decline of 2.27%, a 5 - day decline of 1.32%, a 1 - month decline of 3.82%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.85%. [282]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has pushed up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. There are still tail risks such as sticky service inflation, tariff shocks, and concerns about Fed independence. The overseas liquidity is expected to expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel, which may support the recovery of total demand [7]. - Domestic: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has promoted the continued improvement of mid - stream profits in July. Real - estate policies in first - tier cities have been relaxed, with a relatively weak overall intensity, aiming to support developer liquidity. After important events in early September, China may enter the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the fundamentals may have a greater impact on asset pricing, especially for short - duration commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: The US macro - fundamentals are stable, but political pressure on the Fed has reached a new high, pushing up market expectations of interest - rate cuts. The willingness of US consumers to buy real estate, cars, and household durables fluctuates widely at a low level, and real salary growth is flat. There are still tail risks [7]. - Domestic Macro: Market expectations for corporate profit margins have improved, and the "anti - involution" has affected the profit distribution among industries. In the real - estate sector, first - tier cities have introduced policies to relax restrictions, with a relatively weak overall intensity and more relaxation in suburban new homes in core cities [7]. - Asset Views: Short - term market volatility may increase in early September in China. After important events, the fundamentals may play a more important role in asset pricing. Overseas, liquidity will expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and non - US dollar assets are worth attention [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock Index Futures: Market sentiment is ebbing, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the decline of incremental funds [8]. - Stock Index Options: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the deterioration of option market liquidity [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The stock - bond seesaw is playing out again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: The US interest - rate cut cycle may restart in September, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards, with attention paid to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter is fading, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the rate of freight - rate decline in September [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel: The market is weak, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8]. - Iron Ore: The hot - metal production is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot - metal production, weather, port inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - Coke: The bearish sentiment is growing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Coking Coal: Many coal mines stopped production yesterday, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price is at a low level, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to raw - material costs and steel tenders [8]. - Manganese Silicon: The cost support is insufficient, and the futures price is expected to be weak, with attention paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - Glass: The mid - stream inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate, with attention paid to spot sales [8]. - Soda Ash: The production is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate again, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to soda - ash inventory [8]. - Copper: China and the US have extended the tariff suspension, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to supply disruptions, domestic policies, Fed policies, and domestic demand recovery [8]. - Alumina: The spot market is weakly stable, and the warehouse receipts are increasing, and the market is expected to be under pressure, with attention paid to ore复产, electrolytic - aluminum复产, and extreme market trends [8]. - Aluminum: The social inventory is slightly accumulating, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to macro - risks, supply disruptions, and demand [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: The prices of black - series products have fallen, and the zinc price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to macro - risks and zinc - ore supply [8]. - Lead: The consumption situation is unclear, and the lead price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side disruptions and battery exports [8]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply release [8]. - Stainless Steel: The price of ferronickel is rising, and the stainless - steel futures price is expected to decline, with attention paid to Indonesian policies and demand growth [8]. - Tin: The raw - material supply is still tight, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with attention paid to the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8]. - Industrial Silicon: Coal prices are fluctuating, and the silicon price is expected to rise while fluctuating, with attention paid to supply - side production cuts and photovoltaic installations [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The multi - empty game continues, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely, with attention paid to demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Concerns about production increases have resurfaced, and the oil price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10]. - LPG: The valuation repair is over, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to cost - end developments such as crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - Asphalt: Crude - oil prices are fluctuating, and the upward trend of asphalt has slowed down, and the market is expected to decline, with attention paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [10]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price is fluctuating, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to geopolitics and crude - oil prices [10]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the crude - oil market, and the price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to crude - oil prices [10]. - Methanol: Port inventory is accumulating, and the olefin market is declining, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - Urea: The domestic supply - demand is relatively loose, waiting for the recovery of autumn demand and export release, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to actual export implementation [10]. - Ethylene Glycol: The low - inventory fundamentals and macro - sentiment are in a game, and the downward support is strong, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to coal and oil prices, port - inventory rhythm, and unexpected device shutdowns [10]. - PX: The market atmosphere has cooled, and the upward support is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - PTA: The terminal market atmosphere has cooled slightly, but the tight supply - demand still supports the price, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations, macro - changes, and the peak - season demand [10]. - Short - Fiber: The downstream is观望, and the peak - season performance needs to be verified, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to downstream yarn - mill purchasing and unexpected device production cuts [10]. - Bottle Chip: Mainstream large - scale manufacturers continue to reduce production, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to unexpected production increases and overseas export orders [10]. - Propylene: It follows the PP market in the short term, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic macro - situation [10]. - PP: The pressure of new production capacity is increasing, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Plastic: The oil price is falling, and the plastic price is expected to decline while fluctuating, with attention paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - Styrene: The commodity sentiment has improved, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - PVC: The weak reality suppresses the market, and the PVC price is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - Caustic Soda: The spot rebound has slowed down, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to market sentiment, production, and demand [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: The market is continuously adjusting, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm - oil production and demand data [10]. - Protein Meal: The protein - meal price is fluctuating narrowly, and it is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and trade wars [10]. - Corn/Starch: The replenishment is over, and the market is expected to be weak, with attention paid to demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - Live Pigs: The demand support is insufficient, and the price is expected to remain low, with attention paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. - Rubber: The short - term driving force is not obvious, and the market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - Synthetic Rubber: The market is expected to be range - bound, with attention paid to crude - oil fluctuations [10]. - Pulp: The spot trading is light, and the core driving force of pulp futures is difficult to determine, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to macro - economic changes and US - dollar - based quotes [10]. - Cotton: The cotton price has support, but the upward driving force is insufficient, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to demand and inventory [10]. - Sugar: The sugar price continues to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention paid to imports [10]. - Logs: The spot price is falling, and the market is expected to be weakly volatile, with attention paid to shipment volume and transportation volume [10].