Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term trend of precious metals is rated as "oscillating weakly", and the long - term trend remains bullish [1][3] Core Viewpoints - Trade frictions ease, leading to a decline in safe - haven demand and a short - term weakening of precious metal prices. However, the expectation of interest rate cuts still provides support, and trading within the range with strict risk control is recommended [1] - The precious metals have entered a phased adjustment, but the long - term bullish trend remains unchanged due to factors such as debt over - issuance and the decline of the US dollar's credit [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key Information - The US and China reached a "substantive framework" in Kuala Lumpur, and the threat of 100% tariffs on China was lifted; the assessment of rare - earth related controls was postponed [2] - The US CPI in September was lower than expected, leading the market to price in further interest rate cuts this week and this year [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the release of inflation data in October may be delayed, increasing the market's bet on interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction [2] - The US fiscal deficit in Q3 reached $1.55 trillion, a year - on - year increase of about 40%, driving the market's bet on long - term monetary easing [2] - The ECB may consider reducing the emergency bond - buying program this year if external shocks are controllable [2] - Global central banks net - purchased about 38 tons of gold in September, with the People's Bank of China increasing its holdings for the 23rd consecutive month [2] - The Philippine central bank is considering selling part of its "excessive" gold reserves as the demand for safe - haven weakens [2] Price Logic - Gold has started a phased adjustment, with short - term prices being suppressed by the easing of trade tensions. The focus in Q4 is on the December window period. In the long run, gold remains a core asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit decline [3] - Silver's short - term price movement is in line with that of gold, also entering a phased adjustment. The short - term price is affected by policies and risk sentiment, and the long - term price center will rise with gold [3][6] Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the signals of the FOMC's interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction, as well as the details of trade negotiations. The weekly price range for London gold is [3950 - 4200], and for London silver is [46 - 52] [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, due to the tight supply - demand situation, lithium carbonate leads the rise of new energy metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price center. The lithium ore production capacity is rising, which will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. - For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates. For polysilicon, the supply side is expected to cut production, and the price remains high. For lithium carbonate, the warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the silicon price fluctuates [6]. - **Information Analysis**: - The spot prices of oxygen - blown 553 in East China are 9350 yuan/ton, and 421 in East China are 9650 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations [6]. - The latest domestic inventory in Baichuan is 445,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Market inventory is 183,000 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and factory inventory is 262,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [6]. - As of September 2025, the monthly domestic industrial silicon production is 421,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. From January to September, the cumulative production is 3.017 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.3% [6]. - In September, the export of industrial silicon is 70,233 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4% and a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export is 561,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [6]. - The newly installed photovoltaic capacity in September is 9.66GW, a year - on - year decrease of 53.76%. From January to September, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity reaches 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The dry season in the southwest is coming, and silicon plants in Yunnan and Sichuan are expected to gradually reduce production. Currently, the supply in the northwest is still increasing, and the domestic industrial silicon supply is still in a loose situation. The increase in polysilicon production in October supports the demand for industrial silicon, but the demand will decline in November. The demand for silicone remains weak and stable, and the demand for aluminum alloy increases slightly. In November, industrial silicon is still in a pattern of inventory accumulation, but the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts provides some support to the market [6]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the continuous decrease of warehouse receipts supports the market, but industrial silicon still faces inventory accumulation. The silicon price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Polysilicon - **Viewpoint**: The supply side is expected to cut production, and the polysilicon price remains high [7]. - **Information Analysis**: - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [7]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 9,240 lots, a decrease of 180 lots from the previous value [7]. - In September, China's polysilicon export volume is about 2,150 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53%. From January to September 2025, the total export volume is 18,667 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 30%. In September, the import volume is about 1,292 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.46%. From January to September 2025, the import volume is 14,677 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 53.26% [7]. - From January to September 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity is 240.27GW, a year - on - year increase of 49.35%. From January to December 2024, the cumulative newly installed photovoltaic capacity is 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [7]. - Relevant policies aim to regulate low - price disorderly competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity. The National Standards Committee plans to revise the comprehensive energy consumption per unit product for polysilicon [7]. - Affected by recent meetings and electricity prices in the wet/dry seasons, some polysilicon bases in the southwest region have started to gradually reduce raw material input, with an expected full shutdown from late October to early November, involving a production capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [8]. - **Main Logic**: From August to September, the polysilicon production has recovered to over 130,000 tons, and it is expected to remain high in October. With the arrival of the dry season in November, the supply will shrink. In the long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - involution policies will limit the supply. The photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high, but it overdrafted the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon in the fourth quarter may continue to weaken. Overall, the current supply - demand situation of polysilicon is under pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts the polysilicon price, but the current supply - demand situation is poor. The polysilicon price is expected to fluctuate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the lithium price rises with increased positions [9]. - **Information Analysis**: - On October 27, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 2.99% to 81,900 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts increased by 50,618 lots to 862,528 lots [9]. - On October 27, the spot price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 76,550 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,150 yuan/ton to 74,300 yuan/ton. The average price of the spodumene concentrate index (CIF China) is 906 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day. On the same day, the warehouse receipts decreased by 960 lots to 27,739 lots [9]. - On October 27, Dazhong Mining announced that the "Mining Plan for Jada Lithium Mine Mineral Resources" has passed the review of the Ministry of Natural Resources. The annual mining scale is 2.6 million tons/year, and the spodumene mining scale ranks among the top in the industry. After reaching full production, it can produce about 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year [10]. - **Main Logic**: The current market has strong supply and demand. Attention should be paid to short - term demand and warehouse receipt changes. The weekly and monthly production of SMM continues to increase slightly, and imported ores will be supplemented in November, so the production is expected to remain high. The market has priced in the fact that Ningde Jianxiawo is unlikely to resume production this year, but relevant news should still be closely monitored. In terms of demand, the apparent demand is strong, and the production schedule in November is still strong, with an expected month - on - month increase. December is crucial. The social inventory continues to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decrease by 6,000 tons in November. The current change in the spot basis is not obvious, but there may be an expectation of strengthening in the future. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance. The price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade concerns and positive macro - expectations have led to a significant strengthening of base metals. In the short and medium term, supply - side disturbances and improved macro - expectations are the main drivers. Copper leads the rise of base metals, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of aluminum ingot price catch - up. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disturbances in copper, aluminum, and tin persist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The restart of Sino - US trade negotiations and the release of the Fourth Plenary Session communiqué have improved market sentiment. Supply disturbances continue to increase, with reduced copper ore supply and higher scrap copper recycling costs. Although it is the peak demand season, high prices have curbed demand. Overall, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish [8][9]. - **Alumina**: There are still fundamental pressures, but the valuation has entered a low - level range. The price is expected to fluctuate. The spot price has shown some declines in different regions [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic and overseas macro - environment is positive. The domestic replacement capacity is being put into production, and there are marginal disturbances in overseas supply. The traditional peak season is ending, and terminal demand is stable. With the copper - aluminum ratio above 4.0, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and the medium - term price center may rise [12][13]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. There are small - scale production cuts on the supply side, and demand has marginally improved. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile, and the medium - term price is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. - **Zinc**: The macro - environment is optimistic, but the supply is loose in the short term, and the demand is entering the off - season. The short - term price may be volatile at a high level, and there is still room for decline in the long term [18][19]. - **Lead**: There are disturbances in recycled lead supply, and social inventory is at a low level. The current demand is in the peak season, and the supply is slightly less than expected. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has exceeded 250,000 tons. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be widely volatile in the short term [22][24]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts are decreasing. Nickel - iron prices are weakening, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand sustainability needs attention. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate within a range [25][26]. - **Tin**: Supply constraints are strengthening. In Wa State, production increase may be delayed, and in Indonesia, refined tin supply is expected to tighten. Although the inventory has started to accumulate slightly, the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [26][27]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On October 27, 2025, the comprehensive index, special index, and PPI commodity index of CITIC Futures all showed increases. The industrial products index had the highest increase of 0.95% [152]. - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 27, 2025, had a daily increase of 0.55%, a 5 - day increase of 2.41%, a 1 - month increase of 5.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.71% [153].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - After the Fourth Plenary Session and the progress in Sino - US negotiations, market sentiment has improved. Steel and iron ore prices have risen, and the sector is expected to be driven by macro and policy factors. In the short term, prices of various products in the black building materials industry are expected to oscillate [1]. - Although there are signs of recovery in the steel market, the inventory is still at a relatively high level, and the fundamentals have limited highlights. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the scrap steel price is expected to follow the finished products. The supply - demand structure of coke is still tight, and the coking coal fundamentals are healthy. The alloy prices are supported by cost and output but face supply - demand pressure. The glass and soda ash prices are in an oscillating and weakening state [1][2] Summary by Category Iron Element - Iron ore: Affected by previous concentrated arrivals, the current arrival level has dropped rapidly. Considering the normal growth of shipments, the arrival level is expected to stabilize. The fundamentals of iron ore have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term. Scrap steel has no prominent fundamental contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, its price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [1] Carbon Element - Coke: Environmental protection restrictions affect both supply and demand, but the overall impact is limited. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [2] - Coking coal: Supply is difficult to improve, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream coal mine inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [2] Alloys - Manganese silicon: Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is still high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [2] - Ferrosilicon: High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [2] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Upstream inventory is continuously accumulating. After the negative feedback between futures and spot, the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and the price may continue to oscillate downward [2] - Soda ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [2] Steel - The spot market trading volume has improved, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are not good. Steel production has increased, demand has recovered, and inventory has continued to decline but at a slow pace. In the short term, the futures market is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to domestic policies and Sino - US trade negotiations [7] Iron Ore - The spot market price is strong. Overseas mine shipments have slightly increased, and port inventory has decreased slightly. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with attention to macro and policy factors [8][9] Scrap Steel - The fundamentals have no prominent contradictions. With poor electric furnace profits and steel mill production reduction expectations, the price is expected to follow the finished products in the short term [10] Coke - The second - round price increase has been implemented. Supply has tightened, and demand may decline slightly. The short - term supply - demand structure is still tight, and the price is expected to oscillate [11] Coking Coal - Supply recovery is slow, and the middle and lower reaches are actively purchasing. The upstream inventory is low, but considering the possible seasonal weakening of demand, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [11][12] Glass - Manufacturers in Shahe and Hubei have continued to accumulate inventory, and the spot price has continued to decline. The supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the short - term price shows an oscillating and weakening trend. In the long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed [12] Soda Ash - Production has slightly fluctuated, and downstream procurement is stable. The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate widely following macro fluctuations, and the long - term price center will decline [14] Manganese Silicon - The futures price is strong, but the spot market is cold. Cost reduction is limited, and steel production is high, which supports the price. However, the market supply - demand expectation is pessimistic, and there is obvious upward pressure on the price [14][15] Ferrosilicon - The cost support is strengthened, and the futures price has slightly increased. High steel production and firm cost support the price, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the upward price space is expected to be limited [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and hitting 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 6-meter medium H at Lanshan Port remained unchanged at 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, and the foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS with no transactions [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Today's Fluctuation - Information aspect: China imposed counter - measures on the US 301 ship fees on October 14, increasing the whole - ship cost of logs by about 10%, causing the log futures to rise. After the China - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port fees, leading to long - position reduction and price decline [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. Port arrivals are concentrated recently, and traders' active inventory reduction pressures the spot market. The sales of laminated timber have declined, and the price of export - grade timber is under pressure. Also, the foreign quotation of 120 US dollars/UAS is difficult to conclude deals and is expected to be readjusted [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The fundamental situation of the log market remains weak, with no clear positive drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, port inventory will gradually increase, and the demand is weak with low trader purchasing willingness. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, logs may experience seasonal inventory accumulation again [4]. Group 4: Investment Suggestion - The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the market will return to a weak operation rhythm. Speculative investors are advised to wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent China - US negotiations on port fees [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The log market is expected to remain weak in the short - term. The combination of information and fundamental factors has intensified the short - term bearish sentiment, and the market has returned to a weak operating rhythm. It is recommended that speculators mainly wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent negotiations on the special port charges [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Performance - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and reaching 780 yuan/cubic meter. In the spot market, the quotation of 6 - meter medium H at Lanshan Port was 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged. The foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS, with no transactions [2]. Reasons for Market Movement - Information aspect: After China's counter - measures against the US 301 ship charges on October 14, the log futures rose. But after the Sino - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port charges, leading to long - position reduction and a decline in the futures price [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. There is a concentrated arrival of goods at ports recently, and the decline in sales of laminated wood has pressured the price of imported timber. Also, it is difficult to conclude deals at the current foreign quotation, and the quotation is expected to be readjusted [3]. Fundamental Situation - The fundamentals of the log market remain weak, with no clear bullish drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, and port inventories are expected to gradually accumulate. Although foreign price increases have boosted valuation, the weak demand and low willingness of traders to take delivery have led to large selling pressure after the price increase. Log imports from New Zealand are seasonally increasing in the fourth quarter, and the inventory level is still relatively high considering the large decline in demand [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Government Bond Issuance Tracking - Week 43, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Cheng Xiaoqing [3] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of October 26, the issuance progress of new special bonds reached 86.6%, with 112.4 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 92.3 billion yuan, and 154.9 billion yuan planned for next week [4] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in October was 1.3 billion yuan, with 1.3 billion yuan issued this week, a week - on - week increase of 1.3 billion yuan, and the issuance progress reached 84.1%, with 17 billion yuan planned for next week [5][7] - As of October 26, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in October was 132.5 billion yuan [6] - This week, the net financing scale of local bonds was 165.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 185.5 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week. As of October 26, the issuance progress of new local bonds reached 86.2% [8] - As of October 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds reached 84.0% [12] - As of October 26, the progress of treasury bond net financing plus new local bond issuance reached 85.0%, and the net financing is expected to be 178 billion yuan next week [15] - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 23.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 6.9 billion yuan, and the net financing is expected to be 0 billion yuan next week. This week, the net financing of government bonds was 189.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 192.5 billion yuan [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, against the backdrop of tight scrap and ore supplies, there is a high risk of contraction in the smelting sector, and the supply - demand balance of base metals is expected to tighten, which supports base metal prices. However, weak demand limits the upside potential of prices. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the release of the communiqué of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, copper prices are showing a strong trend. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment has warmed up with the release of the communiqué and the resumption of Sino - US trade negotiations. On the supply - demand side, copper ore supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, leading to a decline in electrolytic copper production. Although the peak demand season has arrived, high prices have suppressed demand to some extent. - **Outlook**: Copper supply constraints remain, and considering the improved macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: As the operating capacity of smelters declines, alumina prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: High - cost production capacity has reduced output, but the reduction is insufficient, and China still maintains a strong inventory build - up trend. Ore prices have shown a slight decline, so there is still pressure on the upside of the disk price. - **Outlook**: Alumina is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading, and pay attention to the potential increase in volatility [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The risk of Mozal's shutdown has intensified, and aluminum prices have slightly rebounded. - **Logic**: The macro - tone at home and abroad is positive. On the supply side, some replacement capacities are being put into production, and the operating capacity and utilization rate are at a high level. On the demand side, orders in the peak season have improved marginally, and social inventories have started to decline. The current copper - aluminum price ratio is above 4.0, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low. - **Outlook**: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias. In the medium term, the supply increase is limited, and demand remains resilient, so the center of aluminum prices is expected to rise [11]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: With strong cost support, the disk is oscillating upward. - **Logic**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum is difficult to change in the short term, providing strong cost support. Although some enterprises have slightly reduced production due to unclear policies and weak demand, the overall reduction is not large. Demand has improved marginally, and social inventories and warehouse receipts have continued to rise. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, due to unclear policy implementation and potential raw material disruptions, prices are expected to continue to oscillate [12]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: With optimistic macro - expectations and an open export window, pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high zinc prices. - **Logic**: Macroeconomic sentiment is optimistic. In the short term, zinc ore supply has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, so their production willingness is strong. Domestic consumption is in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and demand expectations are average. The overall fundamentals are in surplus, but the "soft squeeze" of LME zinc has not ended. - **Outlook**: In October, zinc ingot production will remain high, and demand recovery is limited, so inventories may continue to accumulate. Zinc prices are expected to oscillate [14]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Due to supply disruptions in recycled lead and low social inventories, lead prices have risen significantly. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot discount has narrowed slightly, and the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased. On the supply side, the profitability of recycled lead smelters has improved, and production has increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of lead - acid battery factories has recovered, and demand remains high. - **Outlook**: After the Fed's interest rate cut, the US dollar may still decline. After the holidays, lead supply growth has been slightly lower than expected, and demand is in the peak season. Lead prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: With LME nickel inventories exceeding 250,000 tons, nickel prices are oscillating widely. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the disk. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. Ore supply is relatively loose, and the reality of excess electrolytic nickel is serious, with significant inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: In the short term, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: With low warehouse receipts, the stainless - steel disk is rising. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron prices have weakened, and chromium prices are relatively stable. Stainless - steel production has increased in September, but the sustainability of demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs to be monitored. Social inventories have decreased slightly, and warehouse receipts have continued to decline. - **Outlook**: Downstream demand is slightly lower than expected, and cost support has a certain boosting effect on steel prices. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: With supply constraints remaining, tin prices are oscillating. - **Logic**: There have been continuous supply disruptions in tin. Indonesia has taken measures to restrict supply, and the resumption of production in the Wa State's Manxiang mining area is slow. The domestic tin ore supply is tight, and the processing fee for tin concentrate remains low. - **Outlook**: With tight supply at the mine end, tin prices are expected to oscillate [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 0.70% to 2250.50, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.58% to 2546.54, the industrial products index increased by 1.12% to 2229.03, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.86% to 1342.15 [148]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metals index on October 23, 2025, increased by 0.70% on the day, 1.60% in the past 5 days, 3.15% in the past month, and 7.08% since the beginning of the year [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. Some products are expected to be in a weak or fluctuating state, while others are affected by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, trade relations, and policies [5][6][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1.油脂 - **观点**：继续偏弱运行，关注近期低点支撑有效性，中期展望为豆油、棕油、菜油均震荡偏弱 [5]. - **逻辑**：宏观上，美国联邦政府“停摆”，中美贸易谈判将再度进行，市场对美联储降息预期强等；产业端，美豆数据暂停更新，收获进度达7层，单产下调概率大，巴西新季大豆预期产量增3.6%，种植进度21.7%，国内进口大豆到港量或处高位，豆油去库慢；马棕10月或累库，印尼生柴需求预期增加，印度植物油进口或季节性下降；10月后国内菜油库存或止降回升 [5]. 3.1.2.蛋白粕 - **观点**：空头获利了结，双粕低位大幅反弹，中期展望为豆粕、菜粕震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际上，中美月底会晤前将在马来磋商，阿根廷挤占美豆出口份额，巴西大豆对华出口增加，巴西新作播种进度同比偏快；国内方面，市场采购美豆预期存变数，空头获利了结引发反弹，美豆进口增长预期叠加现实供应压力，期现货价格反弹高度有限，长期四季度国内豆粕供应充足，2026年一季度或有少量缺口，需求端豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增，水产消费淡季菜粕弱于豆粕 [6]. 3.1.3.玉米及淀粉 - **观点**：现货涨跌不一，期货震荡企稳，中期展望为震荡 [7]. - **逻辑**：国内玉米价格涨跌互现，东北丰产预期强，面临卖压冲击，华北受降雨影响，粮质霉变风险高，收割进度受扰，销区用粮企业刚需补库；短期反弹有港口缺货、直属库收购等因素，卖压驱动未完全释放，维持震荡偏弱看法，长期库存趋紧，市场短空长多 [9]. 3.1.4.生猪 - **观点**：下游抵触高价，猪价震荡，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [10]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期二育少量入场，10月出栏量环比增5%，中期四季度出栏量预计增加，长期能繁母猪产能开始去化；需求为消费淡季，肉猪比价下跌；库存二育小幅累库；短期供需宽松，猪周期下行，长期产能去化后供应压力有望减轻 [10]. 3.1.5.天然橡胶 - **观点**：继续震荡整理运行，中期展望为震荡 [11]. - **逻辑**：天胶阶段性见底和估值偏低带来超跌反弹，RU抛储超预期，01合约仍可能炒作，NR标胶进口量低、仓单少、原料坚挺；基本面无新增信息，供应压力不大，需求端四季度轮胎出口走弱预期内，价格单边难把控，关注增仓上涨持续性 [13]. 3.1.6.合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面延续窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：今年产量偏高是盘面压力，下游需求增加但增速不及产量，社会库存高位；原料丁二烯价格上周跌后整理，宏观消息和刚需买盘提振成交气氛 [15]. 3.1.7.棉花 - **观点**：成本提升抬高郑棉估值，关注贸易磋商动态，中期展望为震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：国庆前棉价下行，节后跌势放缓反弹，原因一是新疆棉花产量预估下调，二是籽棉收购价坚挺推高皮棉加工成本；短期棉价易涨难跌，四季度上涨后有回调风险，关注中美贸易谈判 [17]. 3.1.8.白糖 - **观点**：外弱内强，糖价低位盘整，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [19]. - **逻辑**：中长期25/26榨季全球糖市供应过剩，主产国产量预计增加，糖价熊市格局；短期巴西中南部食糖产量下降但出口增加，国内销量一般，库存同比提高，进口高值，外盘走低，内盘抗跌，后续北半球新糖供应期糖价走弱压力增大 [19]. 3.1.9.纸浆 - **观点**：期货连续反弹，现货维持弱势，中期展望为震荡偏弱 [20]. - **逻辑**：期货延续反弹，现货清淡，十一后期货底部震荡；供需无明显利多，市场关注纸浆虚实结合比和年底集中注销；基本面难大涨，欧洲消费疲弱，中国刚需稳定，追涨情绪不高，国内经济偏弱，需警惕废纸系影响，01合约低位震荡，偏空交易 [20]. 3.1.10.双胶纸 - **观点**：双胶纸维持窄幅震荡，中期展望为震荡 [21]. - **逻辑**：盘面在4200元一线震荡，10月底招标旺季，现货重心持稳；纸厂排产情况不一，经销商稳价出货，市场订单跟进不足，下游印厂刚需采买，交投不活跃；成本端木浆市场少数下跌，招标季纸价有底部支撑，但华南新产能放量或牵制纸价 [22]. 3.1.11.原木 - **观点**：原木震荡运行，中期展望为震荡 [24]. - **逻辑**：特别港务费出台后盘面短期提振，海运费上涨提高估值，但现货10月末有下调预期；基本面偏弱，重庆国产材交割利空，港口出库量回落，库存累库；四季度新西兰原木进口季节性增长，库存绝对水平不低，房地产需求疲软，交割面暂无明显驱动，关注新西兰发运情况 [24]. 3.2.品种数据监测 - The report lists different product categories such as "油脂油料", "玉米、淀粉", "棉花、棉纱", "白糖", "纸浆及双胶纸", "原木", but no specific data monitoring content is provided in the given text. 3.3.评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard including "偏强" (expected increase > 2 standard deviations), "震荡偏强" (expected increase 1 - 2 standard deviations), "震荡" (expected increase/decrease within ±1 standard deviation), "震荡偏弱" (expected decrease 1 - 2 standard deviations), "偏弱" (expected decrease > 2 standard deviations), with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation/current price [178]. 3.4.中信期货商品指数 - **综合指数**：Not provided with specific data. - **特色指数**：The "商品20指数" is 2546.54, up 0.58%; the "工业品指数" is 2229.03, up 1.12%; the "PPI商品指数" is 1342.15, up 0.86% [180]. - **板块指数**：The "农产品指数" on 2025 - 10 - 23 is 928.25, with a daily increase of 0.45%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.42%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.77% [181].

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose, with the black - series leading the gains [1] - The CSI 300 futures had a daily increase of 0.38%, a weekly increase of 28.55, a quarterly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.83% [3] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 futures had a daily increase of 2.05%, a weekly increase of 10.18, and a year - to - date increase of 12.91% [3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Analysis Overseas Macro - The current volatility level in the overseas macro - environment is in a low - level accumulation stage. The "bad news is good news" logic may be coming to an end, and the internal volatility energy in the US is being accumulated, with a possible staged increase [7] - The US economic aggregate showed little growth, with a "K - shaped" structural characteristic. Government shutdown may widen the error and expected difference in inflation data. US regional banks are under pressure again [7] Domestic Macro - China's economic and financial data in September showed relative resilience, with structural highlights. Policy expectations were further strengthened, which is expected to boost physical work volume in the fourth quarter [7] - China's Q3 GDP increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the cumulative GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year. September's social retail sales increased by 3.0% year - on - year [7] Group 3: Asset Views - There is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets next week. In the overseas market, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline [7] - In the domestic market, with marginal changes in policy, physical work volume may rebound in the fourth quarter. Low - valued domestic commodity assets that were under pressure may have a rebound opportunity [7] Group 4: View Highlights Financial - Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate and rise due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles, with concerns about the crowding of small - and micro - cap funds [8] - Stock index options are expected to fluctuate as the overall market turnover declined slightly, with concerns about the insufficient liquidity in the options market [8] Precious Metals - Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment stage due to geopolitical and trade easing, and are expected to fluctuate, with attention to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and global equity market trends [8] Shipping - Container shipping on the European line is expected to fluctuate as the peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there is a lack of upward - driving force, with attention to the rate of freight - price decline in September [8] Black Building Materials - Steel is expected to fluctuate as its fundamentals have marginally improved, with attention to the progress of special - bond issuance, steel exports, and hot - metal production [8] Energy Chemical - Crude oil is expected to fluctuate due to increased geopolitical risks and challenges to Russian oil exports, with attention to OPEC+ production policies and the Middle - East geopolitical situation [10] Agriculture - Grains and oilseeds are expected to fluctuate. For example, soybean meal had a short - term rebound due to short - covering, with attention to weather, domestic demand, and trade frictions [10]