Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the upward revision of US economic resilience, the impact on the Fed's independence, and the continuous fermentation of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the market. The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%. Gold has reached 3400 points, and copper and oil prices have closed higher. Domestically, the A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, and the bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to challenge previous highs. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Alumina is under pressure and fluctuating. Zinc prices are in a volatile consolidation. Lead prices are difficult to break out of the current shock pattern. Tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Nickel prices are driven by macro - expectations to fluctuate. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and may decline in the long term. Steel prices are in a volatile trend. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and strong. Bean and rapeseed meal may fluctuate within a range. Palm oil may decline and adjust [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][19][20][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomy - Overseas: The US Q2 GDP annualized growth rate is revised up to 3.3%, with strong business investment and net exports contributing nearly 5%. The Fed's independence faces a legal test. The dollar index has fallen to 97.9, and gold has reached 3400 points. Attention is paid to the US July PCE data tonight [2] - Domestic: The A - share market reversed and rose on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3800 points. The bond market has yet to form a clear repair momentum. The "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" is released [3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rose on Thursday. COMEX gold futures rose 0.82% to $3476.9 per ounce. Concerns about the Fed's independence, inflation data, and interest - rate cut expectations support the rise of precious metals. They are expected to challenge previous highs, and attention is paid to the PCE data tonight [4][5] Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,750 yuan/ton, down 0.48%. The downstream replenishment has slightly increased, but the aluminum ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate [6][7] Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3,063 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the alumina price is under pressure and fluctuating [8] Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated. The downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and the social inventory increased. The short - term long and short factors are intertwined, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9][10] Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the consumption improvement is limited, and the export expectation is weakened. The lead price is difficult to break out of the current shock pattern [11] Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated. Overseas low inventory and slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar support the tin price. It is expected to remain high and volatile, and attention is paid to the pressure at previous highs [12] Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price weakened. The resource risk game continues, and the lithium price is expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Nickel - On Thursday, nickel prices fluctuated strongly. The macro - level dovish expectations continue, and the spot market has both positive and negative factors. The short - term fundamentals have no guidance, and the nickel price fluctuates under the influence of macro - expectations [15] Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil fluctuated. The market focuses on the progress of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and Trump's sanctions. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate, and there is a downward expectation in the long term [16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures rose and then fell. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a work plan to continue the production reduction policy. The steel price is in a volatile trend [17][18] Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures rebounded. The supply is stable, and the demand has decreased. The post - parade replenishment expectation supports the price, and the iron ore price is expected to be volatile and strong [19] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the bean and rapeseed meal contracts fell. The new - crop export sales are 1.37 million tons. The US soybean production area has less precipitation, and the short - term bean meal may fluctuate within a range [20][21] Palm Oil - On Thursday, the palm oil contract fell. The external oil market weakened, and the domestic oil is under pressure. The short - term palm oil may decline and adjust [22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: Overseas, the US dollar index rose and then fell, the 10Y US Treasury yield declined, US stocks opened lower and closed higher, gold and oil prices closed up, and copper prices weakened. Domestically, A - shares fell on high - volume trading, and the stock market's risk may be approaching its peak. The bond market is expected to start to recover [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The independence of the Fed is under threat, increasing the market's risk appetite and boosting precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [3]. - **Copper**: LME copper inventories increased, and copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term due to factors such as policy independence concerns, economic situation, and supply - demand fundamentals [4][5][6]. - **Aluminum**: The market is waiting for US economic data and concerned about the Fed's independence. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term as downstream replenishment意愿 decreases [7]. - **Alumina**: Supply pressure is increasing, and alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - **Zinc**: Market risk aversion has increased, and zinc prices have moved down. Supply pressure will be alleviated, but consumption has not improved significantly, and zinc prices are expected to have limited downward adjustment space [9]. - **Lead**: Supply pressure is expected to decrease, but consumption in the peak season has not materialized, so the upward space for lead prices is limited [10][11]. - **Tin**: The low inventory of LME tin and slow supply recovery support prices, but limited capital enthusiasm restricts the upward height of tin prices [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are both long and short factors, and lithium prices are expected to fluctuate [13]. - **Steel (Screw and Coil)**: Demand is in the off - season, and supply is reduced. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Demand is decreasing due to steel mill maintenance, and supply is stable. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean harvest is expected to be good, and there are positive expectations for the China - US agricultural product agreement. Short - term soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: There is limited driving force in the market, and palm oil prices are expected to be volatile and adjust [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79190 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9774 dollars/ton, down 0.74% [19]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20810 yuan/ton, up 0.46%; LME aluminum closed at 2604 dollars/ton, down 1.31% [19]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina closed at 3046 yuan/ton, down 2.65% [8]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22310 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2764 dollars/ton, down 1.53% [19]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16890 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1986 dollars/ton, down 0.08% [19]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 271790 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; LME tin closed at 34510 dollars/ton, up 1.11% [19]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 0.55% to 3451.80 dollars/ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 0.22% to 38.69 dollars/ounce [3]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: On August 27, SHFE copper was unchanged at 79190 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 73 dollars to 9773.5 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 1100 tons to 156100 tons [21]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel rose 1390 yuan to 121760 yuan/ton, LME nickel fell 90 dollars to 15190 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 72 tons to 209220 tons [21]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc rose 40 yuan to 22310 yuan/ton, LME zinc fell 43 dollars to 2764 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 5500 tons to 60025 tons [23]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead fell 40 yuan to 16890 yuan/ton, LME lead fell 1.5 dollars to 1985.5 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory decreased by 4075 tons to 267475 tons [23]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum rose 90 yuan to 20760 yuan/ton, LME aluminum fell 34.5 dollars to 2604 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory increased by 3175 tons to 481250 tons [23]. - **Alumina**: SHFE alumina fell 23 yuan to 3046 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of alumina fell 9 yuan to 3237 yuan/ton [23]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin rose 2030 yuan to 271790 yuan/ton, LME tin rose 380 dollars to 34510 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory increased by 145 tons to 1925 tons [23]. - **Precious Metals**: There was little change in the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver on August 27 compared with August 26 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Trump's attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Cook has intensified the threat to the Fed's independence; he plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture and restrict exports and impose tariffs on foreign digital taxes. France faces political turmoil, with the government potentially facing reshuffle or early elections. The dollar index fell, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield declined, and gold prices rose [2]. - Domestically, the State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. - For precious metals, Trump's dismissal of Cook has boosted the price of gold due to increased concerns about the Fed's independence and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong [4][5]. - For copper, Trump's move to dismiss Cook has weakened the dollar index. With high expectations of preventive rate cuts and cost support, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [6][7]. - For aluminum, despite the dismissal of Cook and the resulting impact on the dollar index, stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season will keep aluminum prices volatile and favorable [8]. - For alumina, after the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. - For zinc, Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite. Although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. - For lead, due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. - For tin, with weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. - For lithium carbonate, with resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. - For nickel, under the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. - For crude oil, due to geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan, oil prices will be volatile [19]. - For steel products, with shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. - For iron ore, with a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, with an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. - For palm oil, due to Trump's actions, geopolitical factors, and a decline in Malaysian palm oil production in August, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook has caused a legal battle, threatening the Fed's independence. He also announced trade agreements with Europe, Japan, and South Korea and plans to impose high - tariffs on furniture. France's budget - cutting plan has been opposed, leading to a decline in stocks and bonds. The dollar index fell to 98.2, the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield dropped to 4.26%, and gold and copper prices rose while oil prices fell by more than 2% [2]. - Domestic: The State Council issued an opinion on the "Artificial Intelligence +" action. A - shares closed down with shrinking volume, and the bond market is expected to recover as stock market sentiment may peak [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.75% to $3443.20 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.02% to $38.70 per ounce. Trump's dismissal of Cook has increased concerns about the Fed's independence and expectations of a rate cut, driving investors to gold [4]. - Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be volatile and strong, waiting for the release of U.S. PCE data [5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper's main contract was volatile and strong. The spot market had average trading volume, and the LME inventory remained at 155,000 tons. Trump's dismissal of Cook has weakened the dollar index, and there are high expectations of preventive rate cuts [6]. - With cost support from production cuts by Codelco and other factors, copper prices will be volatile and strong in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,705 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The LME closed at $2,638.5 per ton, up 0.63%. Trump's dismissal of Cook has affected the dollar index, and with stable supply and expected consumption in the peak season, aluminum prices will be volatile and favorable [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main alumina futures contract closed at 3,069 yuan/ton, down 3.49%. After the digestion of previous macro - benefits, with stable production capacity and increased inventory, alumina prices will be volatile and weak, but cost and policy expectations will limit the downside [9]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc's main contract was volatile and weak during the day and slightly moved up at night. Global zinc market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Trump's action and French political turmoil have dampened market risk appetite, and although domestic refinery maintenance will relieve supply pressure, consumption has not improved, and zinc prices will be volatile in the short term [10]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead's main contract was volatile and strong during the day and gave back some gains at night. Global lead market supply was in surplus from January to June 2025. Due to refinery maintenance and low - load operation, lead prices have moved up, but lack of consumption improvement and resistance at integer levels will limit the upside [11][12][13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin's main contract was narrowly volatile during the day and closed up at night. With weak supply and demand, although there was a technical breakthrough, weak market risk appetite will limit the upside of tin prices [14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate was volatile and weak. With resource disturbances and expected production increases overseas, and uncertain demand, lithium prices will be volatile [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were volatile and rose significantly at night. With the Fed's dovish expectations, nickel prices have moved up at night, but with lackluster spot markets and limited fundamental support, the upside is limited [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil was volatile and weak. Geopolitical risks and concerns about OPEC +'s production increase plan will keep oil prices volatile [19]. 3.12 Steel Products - On Tuesday, steel futures were volatile and weak. With shrinking trade volume, weak demand for rebar, and电炉 steel mills in the red, steel prices will test cost support and be volatile [20]. 3.13 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures were volatile and adjusted. With a slight decline in inventory, stable supply, and resilient demand, iron ore prices will be volatile [21]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures closed down. With an enhanced expectation of a U.S. soybean harvest and sufficient domestic supply in the short term, soybean meal prices will be range - bound [22]. 3.15 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures closed down. High - frequency data showed a decline in Malaysian palm oil production from August 1 - 25. With Trump's actions and geopolitical factors, palm oil prices will be volatile and adjust [23][24].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250826 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普再掀波动，国内股债双牛 海外方面，特朗普隔夜动作再掀波动，①威胁制裁欧盟官员压欧元；②放话药价降 1500% 拖累美股；③对华扬言磁体若断供将征 200%关税；④美韩会晤无果；⑤欲"复制粘贴"英 特尔交易，企业界忧心忡忡；⑥威胁对征收数字税的国家征收关税；⑦解雇美联储理事库克。 美元指数回升至 98.4，美股走弱，美债利率小幅反弹，金价小跌，铜价上涨，油价延续涨势， 目前 9 月降息概率为 93%，距离 FOMC 会议前还有一份非农、CPI 数据。 国内方面，上海楼市出台"沪六条"：外环外购房不限套，单身买房同家庭，公积金可 付首付、额度上浮 15%，首套贷款上限提至 184 万，商贷利率不再区分首二套。二季度地产 数据延续缩量下行态势，近期一线城市地产政策再度加码，意在托底企稳。周一 A 股延续 上周涨势，上证指数收于 3383，两市成交额升至 3.18 万亿、仅次于去年 10.8，双创板块继 续占优，光模块、稀土、贵金属等行业领涨，目前股市上涨斜率越发陡峭，关注量能及两融 边际变化，股市风偏见顶及调整窗 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is multi - faceted with both long and short factors. In the short term, alumina is expected to trade in a range - bound manner. The disturbances in the ore end have not affected the actual supply, and the cost side is stable. The medium - to - long - term supply side faces significant pressure from new capacity launches, while the short - term operating capacity is stable. Attention should be paid to the potential phased supply disruptions caused by the "parade" [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 15th to August 22nd, 2025, the active alumina futures price decreased from 3205 yuan/ton to 3138 yuan/ton, a drop of 67 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price decreased from 3270 yuan/ton to 3263 yuan/ton, a drop of 7 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 107 yuan/ton to 134 yuan/ton, an increase of 27 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Australian alumina increased from 366.5 dollars/ton to 370 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.5 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss changed from 14.16 yuan/ton to - 24.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.8 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 65771 tons to 77746 tons, an increase of 11975 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 2.09% last week, closing at 3138 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3263 yuan/ton on Friday, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price of domestic bauxite remained unchanged, with limited spot circulation and low trading activity. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the import of bauxite, and it is expected to impact China's import volume in the future. On the supply side, the roasting furnace maintenance of a southern alumina enterprise led to a phased reduction in the supply of alumina spot, with a more prominent supply - demand imbalance in the south and relatively loose supply in the north. As of August 21st, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.2 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. On the consumption side, the transfer of electrolytic aluminum production capacity from Shandong to Yunnan and the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi increased the supply of the electrolytic aluminum industry this week, leading to an increase in the demand for alumina. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 70824 tons to 78000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, the domestic ore supply remained tight, while the import volume of imported ore in July increased by 10.7% month - on - month, with sufficient import supply. On the supply side, the roasting maintenance of a southern alumina enterprise affected a small amount of production capacity, and the rest remained basically stable. The previously expected impact of the "parade" on transportation and production has not materialized. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises are relatively cautious in purchasing due to the current oscillating adjustment of alumina. The regional tight supply pattern in the spot market still exists, and the price is relatively firm. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 70824 tons to 78000 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. Overall, the disturbances in the ore end have not affected the actual supply, and the cost side is stable. The medium - to - long - term supply side faces significant pressure from new capacity launches, while the short - term operating capacity is stable. Attention should be paid to the potential phased supply disruptions caused by the "parade". The warehouse receipt inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the decline in the open interest on the market is not significant [2][7]. 3.4 Industry News - In July 2025, China imported 125,900 tons of alumina, mainly from Indonesia, Australia, and Vietnam, and exported 229,400 tons, mainly to Russia. In July 2025, China imported approximately 20.06 million tons of bauxite and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of about 33.73% and a month - on - month increase of about 10.73%. Rusal released its interim results for the six - month period ending June 30, 2025, with revenues of 7.52 billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 32.05%. The attributable loss to shareholders was 87 million dollars, compared with a profit of 565 million dollars in the same period of the previous year [8]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the price trends of alumina futures, domestic and Australian alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - month spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][14][16]

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report Title: "Precious Metals Weekly Report" [1][8][23][31][36][38][40] - Report Date: August 25, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated, initially pressured by better - than - expected US economic data but strongly rebounding after Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which strengthened the market's expectation of a September rate cut [3][5] - Powell's speech indicated a possible policy adjustment due to changing risk balance, without a clear commitment to a rate cut, emphasizing the need to monitor future employment and inflation data. The market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September increased from 75% to 85% [3][5] - The significant increase in the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week also raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut [3][5] - Currently, precious metal prices are driven by the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut, with the decline of the US dollar index providing additional support. In the short term, precious metal prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [3][6] Group 4: Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 773.40 | - 2.40 | - 0.31 | 181769 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 771.63 | - 1.46 | - 0.19 | 21306 | 197546 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3417.20 | 35.50 | 1.05 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9192 | - 12 | - 0.13 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 9182 | - 6 | - 0.07 | 298922 | 3280258 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.88 | 0.86 | 2.26 | - | - | US dollars/ounce | [4] Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices were initially pressured by US economic data but rebounded after Powell's speech, which strengthened the rate - cut expectation [3][5] - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a split among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs. Most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6] - The market is expected to continue digesting the strengthened rate - cut expectation, and precious metal prices will be volatile and slightly upward [3][6] Group 6: Important Data Information - US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the Composite PMI rose to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [10] - Eurozone August PMI rose from 49.8 to 50.5, the first time above the boom - bust line since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. Germany's Manufacturing PMI jumped from 46.9 to 49.9, approaching the boom - bust line for the first time in three years. France's August Manufacturing PMI reached a 31 - month high of 49.9 [10] - US initial jobless claims increased by 11,000 to 235,000 last week, the highest in three months, higher than the expected 225,000. Continuing jobless claims rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [10] - US existing - home sales in July increased by 2% to an annual rate of 4.01 million, higher than the expected 3.92 million. The median existing - home price rose 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest in two years [10] - Germany's Q2 GDP contracted by 0.2% quarter - on - quarter, worse than the initial estimate of 0.1% contraction [11] - Japan's July core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, with energy prices falling 0.3% for the first time since March 2024 [11] Group 7: Related Data Charts - CFTC non - commercial positions data for gold and silver futures from July 29, 2025, to August 19, 2025, including non - commercial long, short, and net long positions and their weekly changes [13][15] - Multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, non - commercial net long position changes, and relationships between precious metals and other factors such as the US dollar, inflation, and interest rates [17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39] Group 8: This Week's Focus - Key data to watch: US July PCE, Q2 GDP, July durable goods orders; China's August official PMI, July industrial enterprise profit year - on - year [9] - Event to watch: Progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures stopped falling and stabilized. The improvement of PMI data in Europe and the US and the dovish interpretation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, improving market risk appetite. Domestically, the A-share market continued to strengthen [3][10]. - Fundamentally, LME zinc inventories continued to decline, supporting the pattern of stronger overseas and weaker domestic zinc markets. Affected by concentrated arrivals, the zinc ore imports in July exceeded expectations, and refineries had sufficient raw material inventories, supporting stable production. The imports of refined zinc decreased in July as expected, and it is expected to remain at the current level. The smelting end maintained high supply, while downstream consumption did not improve significantly. After the decline in zinc prices, downstream buyers actively replenished their stocks at low prices, resulting in a slight decrease in inventories, but the sustainability remains to be seen [4][10]. - Overall, Powell's dovish stance boosted the rate - cut expectation and repaired market risk appetite. There were no new contradictions in the fundamentals. The decline in LME inventories and increased low - price purchases by domestic downstream provided support, but the high supply pressure from stable mining and smelting production suppressed zinc prices. Technically, the futures price found support near the previous low. In the short term, with the boost of macro - sentiment, zinc prices are expected to repair with a volatile and upward trend [4][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | August 15 | August 22 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22505 | 22275 | - 230 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2796.5 | 2805.5 | 9 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.05 | 7.94 | - 0.11 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 76803 | 77838 | 1035 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 76325 | 68075 | - 8250 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 50 | - 40 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The decline of the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2510) slowed down last week, and it stabilized and repaired in the second half of the week. The market was waiting for Powell's speech for rate - cut guidance, and the low - price purchases by downstream led to a slight decrease in weekly inventories, providing support. The contract finally closed at 22275 Yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.02%. It rose during the Friday night session [6]. - LME zinc fluctuated narrowly in the first half of the week. The market revised its rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar stabilized and rebounded, suppressing the LME zinc price. On Friday, the rate - cut expectation recovered, and the contract closed at 2805.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22220 - 22290 Yuan/ton, with a discount of 10 - 0 Yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. In different markets, the prices and discounts varied. In general, downstream low - price purchases were more frequent in the first half of the week, but with no obvious improvement in consumption, purchases decreased in the second half of the week, and traders' quotes remained stable, with the premium remaining weak [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 22, LME zinc inventory was 68075 tons, a weekly decrease of 8250 tons. SHFE inventory was 77838 tons, an increase of 1035 tons from the previous week. As of August 21, social inventory was 13.29 million tons, an increase of 0.37 million tons from August 14 and a decrease of 0.26 million tons from August 18. The decline in the zinc price center during the week boosted downstream purchasing enthusiasm, leading to a slight decrease in inventories in many places [8]. - Macroeconomically, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest level since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4. The preliminary value of the Eurozone PMI in August rebounded from 49.8 to 50.5, breaking above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022, higher than the expected 49.5. The US and the EU reached a framework for a trade agreement, with the EU promising to cancel all US industrial product tariffs and plan to purchase US energy and AI chips worth billions of dollars. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed a hawkish signal, but after Powell's speech, traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut in September [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22, the average weekly domestic TC of SMM Zn50 was flat at 3900 Yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 2.2 US dollars/dry ton to 92.5 US dollars/dry ton [12]. - According to customs data, in July, zinc concentrate imports were 501,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 51.97% and a year - on - year increase of 33.58%. From January to July, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports were 3.0354 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.2%. In July, refined zinc imports were 17,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.97%. From January to July, the cumulative refined zinc imports were 209,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.72%. In July, galvanized sheet exports were 1.1975 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.86% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. In July, die - cast zinc alloy exports were 241.35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61.21% [12][13]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the ratio of domestic and foreign markets, spot and LME premiums, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, refined zinc net imports, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [15][16][17].

2025 年 8 月 25 日 鲍威尔鸽派提振 铝价震荡偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 投资咨询号：Z00210404 ⚫ 上周鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表态超预期转 鸽，市场开始演绎降息交易，美元走弱，同时欧美制 造业PMI皆有回暖，需求预期略有修复。基本面，电 解铝产能仍然主要为产能置换，整体开工变化不大。 消费端即将进入旺季下游补库意愿上升，同时周初 铝价一度回落，下游接货积极性抬升。周内铝锭社会 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures was under pressure. The US economic data recovery, inflation concerns, and the Fed officials' suppression of interest - rate cut expectations led to a rebound in the US dollar, dragging down lead prices, but Powell's dovish speech at the Jackson Hole meeting improved interest - rate cut expectations and boosted lead prices [2][7][8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of lead concentrates remained tight, and the raw material inventory of electrolytic lead smelters in Henan and Hunan was low. Electrolytic lead showed a pattern of co - existence of reduction and resumption of production. The profit of secondary lead smelters was poor, and some reduced production due to losses. The battery consumption did not improve significantly, and the peak - season effect was insufficient [2][7][8]. - Overall, the interest - rate cut expectations improved, but the fundamentals were weak in both supply and demand. Supply was regionally tight, but consumption was lackluster, and inventories remained at a relatively high level. The LME inventory increase trend continued, putting pressure on lead prices. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, and the inversion of refined and secondary lead prices provides some support [2][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 15th to August 22nd, the SHFE lead price decreased from 16,850 yuan/ton to 16,780 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton; the LME lead price increased from 1,981 dollars/ton to 1,992 dollars/ton, an increase of 11 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.51 to 8.42, a decrease of 0.08; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1,154 tons to 63,690 tons; the LME inventory increased by 11,950 tons to 273,050 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 155 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures continued to be under pressure and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 16,780 yuan/ton with a weekly decline of 0.42%. The LME lead price was weak due to the rising US dollar and inventory increase, but finally closed at 1,992 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.56% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 22nd, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. The downstream procurement enthusiasm was general, and the spot market trading was light [6]. - As of August 22nd, the LME weekly inventory was 273,050 tons, an increase of 11,950 tons; the SHFE inventory was 63,690 tons, a decrease of 1,154 tons. As of August 21st, the SMM five - region social inventory was 6.99 million tons, a decrease of 0.11 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.19 million tons from the previous Thursday [7]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 22nd, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 400 yuan/metal degree, a decrease of 100 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous period; the average imported ore processing fee was - 90 dollars/dry ton, a decrease of 10 dollars/dry ton [9]. - In July, the import volume of lead concentrates was 122,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.59% and a year - on - year increase of 28.35%. The cumulative import volume from January to July was 793,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 30.68%. The export volume of refined lead and lead alloys in July was 4,199 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.04%, and the import volume of refined lead and lead products was 16,317 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.1% [9]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 related charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][15][18][19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to close at 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to close at 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to close at 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, a 0.79% increase [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by U.S. soybean oil. The exemption volume of biofuels for small refineries announced by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency was lower than expected, boosting the expected growth of biodiesel demand. Soybean meal fluctuated and declined during the week, mainly due to market news that imported reserve soybeans will be auctioned and released in November to ease the tight supply situation, leading to a reduction of long - position funds and a cooling of sentiment [4][7]. - The final report of the 2025 ProFarmer survey shows that since the number of soybean pods per unit sample in most production areas is higher than the same period last year, the expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels per acre, lower than the 53.6 bushels per acre in the August USDA report. The precipitation in mid - to late August was lower than the average, so attention should still be paid to weather changes and the adjustment of September report data. The first shipment of Argentine soybean meal was diverted to other areas due to quality problems. There are expectations that imported reserve soybeans in China will be released in November, easing the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. However, short - term U.S. soybean purchases may be difficult to start, which supports the far - month contracts. After imposing policies on Canadian rapeseed imports, the import cost has increased. Last week, it was reported that COFCO restarted Australian rapeseed purchases since 2020, with a shipping date of November. Overall, short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 15.5 to 1058.25 cents per bushel, a 1.49% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 1 to 490 dollars per ton, a 0.20% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans rose 14 to 470 dollars per ton, a 3.07% increase; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market decreased 46.71 to - 63.99 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 49 to 3088 yuan per ton, a 1.56% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 3 to 2543 yuan per ton, a 0.12% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 46 to 545 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of soybean meal fell 20 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 0.66% decrease; the South China spot price of soybean meal fell 30 to 2950 yuan per ton, a 1.01% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 19 to - 138 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybeans fluctuated and rose due to the boost of U.S. soybean oil, while soybean meal fluctuated and declined due to the expected release of imported reserve soybeans in November [4][7]. - The ProFarmer survey shows high pod numbers in most U.S. soybean - producing areas, with a final yield estimate of 53 bushels per acre, lower than the USDA report. The U.S. soybean excellent - good rate as of August 17 was 68%, the flowering rate was 95%, and the pod - setting rate was 82%. About 9% of the planting area was affected by drought as of August 19, and future precipitation is expected to be lower than average [8][9]. - As of August 14, the current - market - year net export sales of U.S. soybeans were - 0.6 million tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 season reached 51.06 million tons, completing the USDA target. The net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the 2025/2026 season were 1.143 million tons, with cumulative sales of 5.86 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [9]. - As of August 15, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.62 dollars per bushel, the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 287.98 dollars per short - ton, the soybean oil truck quote in Illinois was 53.49 cents per pound, and the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.39 dollars per bushel [10]. - Brazil's soybean export volume in August is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the soybean meal export volume is expected to reach 2.33 million tons [10]. - As of August 15, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 6.804 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, and the unexecuted contracts were 5.7562 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons. As of August 22, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 168,680 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 194,040 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.27 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.51 days [11]. Industry News - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of August reached 5.17167139 million tons, with a daily average export volume 29% higher than that of August last year [13]. - As of August 10, Canada's rapeseed export volume increased 864.4% to 254,600 tons compared with the previous week. From August 1 to August 10, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 254,600 tons, a 33.6% decrease compared with the same period last year, and the commercial inventory was 940,200 tons [13]. - The expansion of Brazil's soybean planting area in the 2025/2026 season will be the smallest in recent years. Analysts' forecasts for the planting area growth range from 1.2% to 2.9%, and the production forecasts range from 166.56 million tons to 178.2 million tons [14]. - Brazil's competition management agency plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan", and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters will appeal [15]. - Australia's rapeseed exports in June 2025 decreased significantly to 102,064 tons, and monthly exports are unlikely to exceed 150,000 tons before November [15]. - As of August 17, the EU's palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports in the 2025/2026 season decreased compared with last year [16]. - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reopen the Chinese market [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides charts on the trends of U.S. soybean contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF prices, ocean freight, RMB exchange rates, regional crushing profits, management funds' net positions in CBOT, soybean meal contract trends, regional soybean meal spot prices, etc. [18][20][22]