Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. Trump's plan to arrange a shadow chairman before Powell's term ends to promote rapid interest rate cuts, along with the negative final Q1 GDP growth and decreased May personal consumption in the US, increased the market's bearish sentiment towards the US dollar. Rising interest rate cut expectations and the weak US dollar boosted copper prices. Fundamentally, the global copper concentrate supply shortage was more severe than expected, LME visible inventories declined continuously, the LME0 - 3 BACK structure was crowded, and domestic social inventories were low. The tightened global refined copper balance provided a solid bottom and upward support for copper prices in the medium term [2]. - Overall, the intensified stagflation risk in the US, the weakening US dollar, and the slightly rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year provided a good basis for copper prices to rise in the short term. The calming of the Middle - East situation increased the capital market's risk appetite for bulk assets. The US's desire to revitalize the manufacturing industry elevated copper to a strategic asset. Fundamentally, the overseas concentrate shortage persisted, the long - term TC benchmark price for the second half of the year between Antofagasta and some Chinese smelters dropped to $0, global visible inventories were at a low level and declining, there was a certain risk of a short squeeze in LME0 - 3, and the global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an upward - fluctuating channel and gradually open up upward space in the short term [3][10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Price Changes**: From June 20th to June 27th, LME copper rose from $9,660.50/ton to $9,879.00/ton, a 2.26% increase; COMEX copper rose from 483.4 cents/pound to 512.5 cents/pound, a 6.02% increase; SHFE copper rose from 77,990 yuan/ton to 79,920 yuan/ton, a 2.47% increase; international copper rose from 69,170 yuan/ton to 71,250 yuan/ton, a 3.01% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio increased slightly from 8.07 to 8.09, the LME spot premium dropped from $274.99/ton to $240.67/ton, a 12.48% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium dropped from 120 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of June 27th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 445,288 tons, a 3.49% decrease from June 20th. LME inventory decreased by 7,925 tons to 91,275 tons, a 7.99% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 8,084 short tons to 209,281 short tons, a 4.02% increase; SHFE inventory decreased by 19,264 tons to 81,532 tons, a 19.11% decrease; Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 63,200 tons, a 4.98% increase [7] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Movement**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated upwards. The weakening US dollar and the tightened global refined copper balance supported copper prices. As of June 27th, the total global inventory decreased, and the decline in the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the weakening US dollar [8]. - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's criticism of Powell and the consideration of replacing him increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, putting downward pressure on the US dollar index and boosting the metal market. The US economy showed signs of stagflation or shallow recession, and the Fed might resume interest rate cuts in the future. The cease - fire in the Middle - East was a positive sign for the capital market [9]. - **Supply - demand Aspect**: The global copper concentrate supply shortage persisted. Some small and medium - sized smelters in China reduced production slightly, and new production capacity might be postponed. In terms of demand, the start - up rate of copper cable enterprises remained above 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry maintained a high growth rate, which could offset the decline in demand from traditional industries. The global refined copper balance might turn slightly short in the second half of the year [10] 3. Industry News - **Peru's Copper Production**: In April, Peru's copper production reached 220,200 tons, a 7.9% year - on - year increase. From January to April, the cumulative production was 886,700 tons, a 4.9% year - on - year increase. Las Bambas copper mine became the third - largest copper mine in Peru [12]. - **Western Mining's Project**: Western Mining's subsidiary, Yulong Copper, received approval for its third - phase project. After completion, the ore - processing scale will increase to 30 million tons/year, and the annual copper metal output is expected to reach 180,000 - 200,000 tons [13]. - **Antofagasta's Expansion**: Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine has produced over 8.5 million tons of copper. After the first - phase expansion, two new projects are in progress. The company's copper production guidance for 2025 is 660,000 - 700,000 tons [14]. - **Copper Rod Market**: The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly. The copper rod market in East and South China was weak, and the start - up rate of copper rod enterprises is expected to decline in early July [15] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and the trends of copper premiums, spreads, and import profits and losses [19][22][26]

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铁矿周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 短线情绪好转 铁矿承压反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | 元/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentals: There are no disturbances on the resource side. Although the port ore inventory has decreased, it remains at a high level overall. The rising futures prices have encouraged spot suppliers to actively sell, but downstream buyers are reluctant to purchase. Material manufacturers make purchases based on rigid demand, and the spot resources are abundant. The market trading is relatively stable. The energy storage market continues to be hot, and the power terminal consumption is acceptable, but some car companies plan to reduce production. - Cost: During the reporting period, driven by the rising futures prices, lithium ore prices have strengthened. - Futures market: On Monday, the main contract hit a new low since listing. Then, the market sentiment reversed. Lithium prices rose significantly in the middle of the week and opened higher on Friday, closing above the 30 - day moving average. Overall, there was a trend of rising prices with decreasing positions during the week. The trading volume was significantly released at the beginning of the week, but on the day when the price hit a new high at the end of the week, the trading volume was lower than the previous high. - Outlook: The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and the price increase lacks substantial drivers. Lithium prices may回调. Fundamentally, the rising lithium prices provide a comfortable hedging space for upstream producers. At the same time, many smelters have made breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology. While the expected upstream production is increasing, the cost center may decline. The production increase of material manufacturers in July is limited. The energy storage market may continue to be hot driven by policies. The power terminal sales are acceptable, but the expected reduction in car company production may drag down the production plans of upstream material manufacturers and battery cell manufacturers, and the consumer side may not see significant improvement. Driven by the strong supply expectation, the fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally. However, it should be noted that the short - sellers' profit - taking demand is strong recently, and the positions have decreased during the week, which may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Indicator | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Imported lithium ore: 1.3% - 2.2% | 108 | 106 | 2.00 | 1.89% | USD/ton | | Imported lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5.00 | 0.79% | USD/ton | | Domestic lithium concentrate: 5.5% - 6% | 639 | 634 | 5 | 0.79% | CNY/ton | | Spot exchange rate: USD to CNY | 7.169 | 7.186 | - 0.02 | - 0.23% | / | | Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 6.33 | 5.91 | 0.42 | 7.07% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price | 0.00 | 5.85 | - 5.85 | - 100.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium carbonate main contract price | 6.32 | 5.97 | 0.35 | 5.89% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) | 5.90 | 5.98 | - 0.08 | - 1.34% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Battery - grade lithium hydroxide (fine particles) | 6.35 | 6.45 | - 0.10 | - 1.55% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Total lithium carbonate inventory | 110305 | 103436 | 6869 | 6.64% | ton | | Lithium iron phosphate price | 3.05 | 3.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Lithium cobalt oxide price | 20.90 | 20.40 | 0.50 | 2.45% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 811 | 14.55 | 14.55 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | | Ternary material price: 622 | 12.75 | 12.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Ten thousand CNY/ton | [6] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Last week's market analysis** - **Regulation and delivery**: As of June 27, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 21,998 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 60,340 CNY/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2509 was 341,400 lots. - **Supply side**: According to Baichuan data, as of June 27, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 17,598 tons, an increase of 310 tons from the previous period. With the significant increase in lithium prices during the week, lithium salt factories have another hedging opportunity, and the operating rate may remain high. In addition, some mica enterprises in Jiangxi announced major breakthroughs in lithium extraction technology, and the cost center has moved down, which may further increase the supply of lithium extraction from hard - rock ores. The production of salt lake resources is on the rise, and policy regulation has limited impact on salt lake production. - **Imports**: In May, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 21,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25% and a year - on - year decrease of 14%. Among them, 13,400 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 34%; 6,626 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Currently, Chile and Argentina are still the main sources of China's lithium carbonate imports, accounting for about 63% and 31% respectively. In May, the scale of lithium carbonate shipped from Chile to China was about 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 38%. Overall, the shipment volume from Chile in May was significantly weaker. - **Lithium ore imports**: In May, about 605,000 tons of lithium ore were imported, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%. Among them, the import volume of lithium ore from Australia and South Africa increased significantly, with 371,000 tons and 52,000 tons imported respectively. In contrast, the import volume from Zimbabwe decreased significantly by 71.7% to about 15,000 tons. - **Demand side** - **Downstream cathode materials**: As of June 27, the total production of lithium iron phosphate was about 65,667 tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 36,496 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. The total production of ternary materials was about 15,300 tons, with an operating rate of 48.65%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 13,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. The prices of cathode materials have increased to varying degrees due to the rising lithium carbonate prices. - **New energy vehicles**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase from the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market in the country was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. However, with the base gradually rising after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Affected by the payment deadline policy, car companies may enter the active inventory reduction stage, which will have a negative impact on upstream battery cell manufacturers and material manufacturers. - **Inventory**: As of June 20, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 110,305 tons, an increase of about 6,869 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 35,275 tons, an increase of about 408 tons; the market inventory was 75,030 tons, an increase of about 6,464 tons; the exchange inventory was 21,998 tons, a decrease of 5,795 tons from the previous week. [6][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] - **This week's outlook** The futures market is divorced from the physical market, and lithium prices are expected to decline. The price increase lacks substantial drivers, and lithium prices may回调. The fundamentals may gradually weaken marginally, but the short - sellers' profit - taking may cause the lithium price movement to deviate from the fundamental logic. [15] 3.3 Industry News - Tianqi Lithium has completed the development and verification of relevant processes and equipment for lithium sulfide industrialization, which is beneficial for promoting the development of the all - solid - state battery industry chain. - Wukuang Xinneng has achieved cumulative shipments of hundreds of kilograms of all - solid - state battery cathode materials. - Yinglian Co., Ltd. is researching and developing lithium metal/composite current collector anode integrated materials for solid - state batteries, and the industrialization progress of the composite current collector sector is advancing. [16] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends and production of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and the production of related batteries, including lithium carbonate futures prices, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, import lithium concentrate prices, lithium carbonate production, etc. [18][20][23][27][29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon hit bottom and rebounded. The National Development and Reform Commission's policies to promote high - quality development of new energy greatly boosted market confidence. Supply was generally weak, and demand was also facing uncertainties. Social inventory decreased to 542,000 tons due to monthly production decline, and the spot market stabilized and rebounded [2][6][9]. - Overall, the new policies on new energy development boosted market sentiment. Supply continued to contract, terminal consumption slowed down, social inventory would keep falling, and the spot market rebounded after stabilization. Technically, the futures price was expected to continue the upward trend in the short term [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the industrial silicon main contract price rose from 7,390 yuan/ton to 8,030 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.66%. The price of oxygen - passed 553 spot increased by 1.84%, and the price of organic silicon DMC spot increased by 0.48%. The prices of other products remained unchanged. Industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 3.04% to 542,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro: From January to May, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with a 9.1% decline in May. However, the equipment manufacturing industry showed a supporting effect, with a 7.2% year - on - year profit growth from January to May, pulling up the overall profit of large - scale industrial enterprises by 2.4 percentage points [7]. - Supply: As of June 27th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 28.6%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas dropped to 215, with an overall opening rate of 30.8%. Xinjiang's opening rate remained at 70%, and the production reduction of large factories was slow. The opening rate in Sichuan and Yunnan increased slightly during the wet season, but the increment was limited [8]. - Demand: The polysilicon market had limited transactions, and large factories were cautious about increasing production. The silicon wafer market declined significantly, and many enterprises jointly reduced production to support prices. Some photovoltaic cell manufacturers adjusted production lines and adopted a flexible production - based - on - sales strategy. Component prices were stable, but most manufacturers reduced production in July, and overall terminal orders were weak [6][8][9]. - Inventory: As of June 27th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 542,000 tons. The exchange - registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the new delivery standard, the 5 - series warehouse receipts were actively registered, and the pressure on warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to the continuous decline in domestic production [8]. Industry News - On June 26th, at the press conference, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that as of the end of May, the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 45.7% of the total, exceeding that of thermal power. To improve new energy consumption, three aspects were coordinated: coordinating power transmission and local consumption, coordinating grid and regulation capacity construction, and coordinating energy demand and supply [10]. Relevant Charts - The content provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in main production areas, and prices of related products over different time periods [12][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroscopically, the Q1 economic data in the US was below expectations, but recent performance was decent with no obvious economic disturbances. Geopolitical conflicts cooled down, and risk appetite in the previously weak commodity market increased, pushing up prices [2]. - Fundamentally, the shortage of nickel ore eased, and smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Nickel prices hit a new low at the beginning of the week, stimulating downstream purchases and significantly raising spot premiums. Stainless - steel prices rebounded due to sentiment, but spot sales were lackluster, and the terminal market remained weak. Ferronickel faced dual pressure, with ferronickel plants suspending spot quotes and only maintaining long - term contracts. The price of nickel sulfate was stable with no obvious fundamental improvement [2]. - In the later stage, there is no substantial driver for nickel price increases, and prices may回调 after the sentiment cools. After the implementation of the "Regulations on Ensuring the Payment of Accounts of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" in early June, the payment cycle of car manufacturers to suppliers has been significantly shortened to within 60 days, which may lead to tight cash flow for car manufacturers. BYD plans to stop night - shift production in some factories, and production may be reduced by one - third. With stable terminal consumption expected, the tightened production schedules of leading car manufacturers may drag down the raw material replenishment of upstream material factories, and the new energy sector may weaken significantly. Traditional consumption has no improvement expectation, supply remains relatively high, and the fundamentals may weaken marginally. The price decline may be mainly due to the lack of strong real - world support for last week's price increase, and prices may fall after risk appetite cools [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 120480 | 117440 | 3040 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15245 | 14804 | 441 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 204294 | 205140 | - 846 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21257 | 21478 | - 221 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2850 | 3100 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 550 | 50 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 922 | 942 | - 20 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 92.1 | 92.6 | - 0.45 | million tons | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore eased. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore from the Philippines rose from $51.5/wet ton to $52.5/wet ton, while that from Indonesia fell from $40.9/wet ton to $38.4/wet ton. Smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Although the transaction price of Philippine nickel ore in July remained high, the shipping progress was slow, and the resource side's transition to a loose pattern was slow, so costs may remain high [4]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 921 Yuan/nickel point to 913 Yuan/nickel point. In May, China's ferronickel production was expected to be about 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and in June, it was expected to be 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In May, China's ferronickel imports totaled about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's ferronickel production in May was 141,400 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.89% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.36%. In June, the expected production was 142,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. In June, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.816 million tons, an increase of about 18 tons compared with the same period last year, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. In May, the actual production of stainless steel was 1.87 million tons, stronger than the expected 1.78 million tons, the same as April's production. Overall, due to cost pressure, Indonesia's ferronickel production has declined for two consecutive months. Nickel ore demand has weakened, and the shortage has marginally improved. Although stainless - steel prices rebounded, spot transactions were limited, and it was difficult to boost ferronickel consumption. In the short term, ferronickel may stop falling but has limited rebound potential and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,400 Yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 29,000 Yuan/ton to 28,000 Yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and 2.27% respectively. In June, the production of ternary materials increased again, with a total of about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 30.95% and 1.36% respectively. As of June 20, the downstream nickel sulfate inventory days remained at 12 days from the beginning of the month, and the downstream inventory was at a low level, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 10 days, at a relatively high level. At the end of the month, there is an expectation of downstream replenishment, but due to the contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules, the intensity of downstream replenishment may be lower than before [6]. - **Macro - level**: The Q1 economic data was weak, but durable goods orders were strong, and the labor market remained resilient. As of June 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 and the previous value of 246,000. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.5%, lower than the expected - 0.2% and the previous value of - 0.2%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was + 0.5%, lower than the expected + 1.2% and the previous value of + 1.2%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in Q1 was + 3.5%, higher than the expected + 3.4% and the previous value of + 3.4%. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in May was + 16.4%, higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials believe that both inflation and the unemployment rate are expected to rise, and the economic outlook is still uncertain under tariff pressure. Powell advocates continued waiting and deciding on monetary policy after more economic data is available, while some officials believe that the employment market is under pressure and support an early interest - rate cut [6][7]. - **Supply - side**: In June, domestic production capacity was stable, but smelter production schedules declined. According to the SMM's data, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in June was 34,150 tons, further decreasing from May's production. The sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, the same as the previous period. The expected operating rate in June was 63.13%, about 2.21 percentage points lower than last month. In May, the domestic export volume of electrolytic nickel was about 13,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.27% but a significant month - on - month decline. As of June 26, the export profit of nickel in China was $96.26/ton according to the SMM's data. Overall, the center of export profit has moved down, suppressing exports. Coupled with the weakening of nickel prices, domestic supply is expected to decline [7]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market in China was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency sales data, terminal consumption was stable. Although the year - on - year growth rate remained high, the data in June last year was weak after the subsidy policy was issued, so the base effect may provide support. As the base gradually increases after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Currently, the core of consumption lies in vehicle manufacturers' production schedules. Affected by the payment - deadline policy, vehicle manufacturers' cash - flow pressure may become prominent, and they may enter the stage of active inventory reduction. BYD has announced the suspension of night - shift production in some factories, and the production of some factories may decline by one - third. The contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules may have a negative impact on upstream battery cell and material factories [8]. - **Inventory**: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 21,257 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 221 tons, and the LME inventory is 204,294 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 846 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 225,551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,067 tons [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **GEM**: As of the end of 2024, the company's domestic production capacity of ternary cathode materials was 20,000 tons/year, the production capacity of the phosphoric (manganese) iron - lithium demonstration line was 10,000 tons/year, the production capacity of cobalt - acid lithium was 5,000 tons/year, and the production capacity of sodium - battery cathode materials was 10,000 tons/year. The company plans to cooperate with strategic partners such as South Korea's ECOPRO to build a full - industrial - chain strategic cooperation body of "nickel resources - precursors - cathode materials" in Indonesia. The project will be implemented in three phases, with the first and second phases planning to build factories with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of cathode materials and the third phase planning to build a factory with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 tons of cathode materials, aiming to expand the project market globally [10]. - **Indonesia's MMP Nickel Smelting Project**: The 2 - nd electric furnace of the project located in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, was successfully ignited. The project team overcame various difficulties during the project implementation and laid a solid foundation for subsequent production [10]. - **Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base**: On June 25, 2025, the opening ceremony of the first - phase project of Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base was successfully held. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel - based materials, which is an important milestone in Zhongwei's global development and the first new - energy material base in Africa [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, the domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [12][14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures price rebounded in the short term due to the decline in warehouse receipt inventory and the short - covering of some bears. However, considering the increasing supply and rigid demand, the low - inventory situation of alumina is difficult to last long, and the upside space of the futures price is limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure above the 3000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From June 20 to June 27, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2890 yuan/ton to 2986 yuan/ton, an increase of 96 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price fell from 3197 yuan/ton to 3121 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; the spot premium decreased from 202 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 167 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price was 363 US dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was - 31.93 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory decreased from 42928 tons to 30319 tons, a decrease of 12609 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 300 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in various regions and the Guinea CIF price remained unchanged [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 3.32% last week, closing at 2986 yuan/ton. The national weighted average of the spot market was reported at 3121 yuan/ton on Friday, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous week. The price and supply of domestic bauxite did not change significantly. The news of the long - term contract for Guinea ore in the third quarter had limited changes compared with the second quarter. The rainy season in Guinea currently has limited impact on ore extraction and transportation. The alumina supply increased slightly. Some alumina plants that had reduced production increased their production capacity, but the spot circulation in the market was still low due to the strong reluctance to sell. As of June 26, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 112.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 89.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 79.52%. The operating capacity of the Chinese electrolytic aluminum industry remained stable, and the demand for alumina remained high. The warehouse receipt inventory of alumina futures decreased by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 300 tons to 0 tons [4] Market Outlook - The supply and demand of the bauxite end were stable last week. The freight from overseas Guinea to northern Chinese ports remained between 24 - 25 US dollars, and the ore price remained unchanged overall. The operating capacity of alumina increased slightly last week, but the increase in goods flowing into the spot market was limited, and the inventory of alumina factories increased. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease by 13,000 tons to 30,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory decreased by 300 tons to 0 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity increased slightly, and the procurement was mainly based on long - term contracts, with strong fear of price drops. Overall, the downward trend of warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged. As the delivery month approached, the high virtual - to - real ratio on the market forced some short - sellers to close their positions, and alumina rebounded in the short term. From the perspective of supply and demand, the continuous resumption of production on the supply side and the recent small - scale import of alumina from Indonesia made the increasing supply trend difficult to change. Coupled with the rigid demand on the consumption side, it was expected that the low - inventory situation of alumina could not last long, and the upside space of the futures price was limited. Attention should be paid to the pressure above the 3000 yuan/ton mark of the main contract [6] Industry News - Shanxi Huarui Century Energy Holding Co., Ltd. won the mining right of the Huazhai Block bauxite in Jiaokou County, Shanxi Province at a price of 3.056 billion yuan. India's aluminum industry company announced that it would acquire 100% of the equity of the US specialty alumina manufacturer AluChem for 125 million US dollars through its wholly - owned subsidiary Aditya. AluChem is a North - American specialty alumina producer with three factories in Ohio and Arkansas, and has more than 45 years of experience in providing high - performance alumina for industrial applications [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures and spot, spot premium, inter - period spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [8][12][13][15]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level. Geopolitical conflicts eased, the Fed's rate - cut expectation strengthened, and the market risk preference improved. Overseas refinery strikes and potential downward adjustment of domestic supply increments led to a short - term upward trend in zinc prices. However, it's currently the off - season for consumption, and there are still concerns about inventory build - up and technical pressure, so caution is needed when chasing the price increase [3][4] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - SHFE zinc rose from 21,845 yuan/ton on June 20th to 22,410 yuan/ton on June 27th, an increase of 565 yuan/ton. LME zinc rose from 2,649 dollars/ton to 2,778.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 129.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.25 to 8.07. The SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, the social inventory increased by 0.17 million tons to 7.95 million tons, and the spot premium decreased from 140 yuan/ton to 70 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - **Futures Market**: The main ZN2508 contract of Shanghai zinc rebounded from a low level, closing at 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 2.59%. LME zinc broke through the 2,700 dollars/ton mark, closing at 2,778.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 4.89% [6] - **Spot Market**: The new long - term contracts were implemented, and traders increased their quotes. But due to the rising price and the off - season, downstream purchasing weakened, and the premium continued to decline [7] - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 7,000 tons to 119,225 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 769 tons to 43,633 tons. As of June 26th, the domestic social inventory increased, with a significant increase in Tianjin due to reduced consumption, while Shanghai and Guangdong had a slight decrease due to less incoming goods [8] - **Macro - economy**: The US Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly decline was 0.5%, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was only 0.5%, the weakest since the COVID - 19 outbreak. The core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5%. The initial jobless claims decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, and the previous week's continuing jobless claims reached 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021. The May durable goods orders increased by 16.4% month - on - month, far exceeding expectations [8][9] 3. Industry News - In July, the average processing fees for domestic and imported zinc concentrates increased by 200 yuan/metal ton and 6.46 dollars/dry ton respectively [12] - Workers at Nexa's Cajamarquilla zinc smelter in Peru went on strike on June 25th after wage negotiation failure, and the resumption time depends on further negotiations [12] - Some zinc smelters in South China were affected by heavy rain, with normal production but restricted transportation, and are gradually recovering [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot and LME premiums, inventory levels, zinc ore processing fees, zinc production, smelter profits, net imports of refined zinc, and downstream enterprise operating rates [13][21][27]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The lead price is currently in a short - term upward trend, driven by improved macro - sentiment and expectations of consumption improvement. However, the recovery of secondary lead smelter profits increases the expectation of resuming production, which is not conducive to the lead price. The lead price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, and there is a risk of price retracement when the positive sentiment fades [3][6][8]. Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Transaction Data - From June 20th to June 27th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,810 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 315 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,995 dollars/ton to 2,041.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 46.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.43 to 8.39. The SHFE inventory increased by 638 tons to 51,929 tons, while the LME inventory decreased by 10,650 tons to 273,425 tons. The social inventory increased by 0.03 million tons to 5.6 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton [4]. 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2508, breaking through the 17,000 - yuan integer mark and rising strongly, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The LME lead price also broke through the shock range, with a weekly increase of 2.33%. In the spot market, after the SHFE lead price rose and then fell, holders maintained a discount for sales, and the supply of secondary refined lead increased with an expanded discount, resulting in sluggish trading in the electrolytic lead market [5]. 3. Industry News - In July, the average domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees were 550 yuan/metal ton and - 45 dollars/dry ton respectively, down 50 yuan/metal ton and - 15 dollars/dry ton month - on - month [8]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead concentrate processing fee, primary and secondary lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][13][15][17][21].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250627 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国一季度消费下修，A 股情绪有所降温 海外方面：美国一季度 GDP 终值从-0.2%下修至-0.5%，个人消费支出增速从 1.2%下修 至 0.5%，创疫情以来最弱表现。与此同时，5 月耐用品订单大超预期，核心耐用品订单回暖 提振二季度 GDP 投资项，预计二季度 GDP 录得 3.4%，目前美国经济仍有韧劲，重点关注 消费及就业边际降温的幅度。"大美丽"法案推进中，贝森特要求删除对外资征报复性税的 争议条款（"899 条款"）。美元指数跌破 97 创逾三年新低，10 年期美债利率回落至 4.25%， 美股集体反弹，弱美元、供应偏紧支撑铜价创三个月新高，金价震荡偏弱。今晚关注美国 5 月 PCE 及密歇根调研"软数据"。 国内方面：A 股在连续 3 日强势上涨后震荡整理，两市成交额仍保持在 1.6 万亿上方， 微盘股与红利风格相对抗跌，稳定币、餐饮旅游、银行板块领涨，市场情绪趋于理性，缺乏 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数持续走弱，A 股持续放量走强 海外方面：特朗普称美伊下周或会谈，宣称停火是"所有人的胜利"，后续中东冲突影 响或将边际减弱，美联储下任主席及降息节奏成为市场关注主线。特朗普：已有三到四位候 选人可能接替鲍威尔担任下任美联储主席（前美联储理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈 塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒以及美国财政部长贝森特）。北约各成员国同意将国防开支目标 提升至 GDP 的 5%，虽有望在 2035 年前带动数万亿美元防务投资，但欧洲多国债务高企， 目标落地仍存不确定性。隔夜美元指数下探至 97.6、创下本轮贬值新低，美债利率回落至 4.27%，美股窄幅震荡，铜、油、金小幅反弹。 国内方面：A 股再度放量上涨，两市成交额回升至 1.64 万亿，风格上北证 50、双创板 块表现强劲，行业上金融、军工板块领涨，沪指突破年内高点，股指波动率显著上升，市场 情绪持续升温。本轮上涨缺乏事件、基本面改善驱动，更多由技术面与 FO ...