Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to close at 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the palm oil 05 contract fell 166 to close at 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 14 to close at 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the rapeseed oil 05 contract fell 115 to close at 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to close at 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the ICE canola active contract rose 8.3 to close at 676 Canadian dollars/ton, an increase of 1.24% [3][7]. - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil trading volume has increased significantly and shows good resistance to decline. Rapeseed oil still faces supply pressure due to high inventory, but there is an expectation of tightened imports in the medium to long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand in the domestic market. As the producing areas enter the production - increasing cycle, inventory may enter an accumulation cycle. Facing the impact of tariff policies, the governments of Malaysia and Indonesia may lower export prices, causing the spot quotes in the producing areas to decline and the Malaysian palm oil to continue to weaken. In the short term, US soybean oil is oscillating strongly due to factors such as biodiesel and the rebound of US soybeans. Canadian canola continues to rise this week supported by low inventory and good crushing demand [4][7]. - The impact of tariff policies is gradually being digested by the market. The game among countries may enter a long - cycle process. The US stock market is in an oscillating adjustment process, and the US dollar index is oscillating weakly. With supply concerns and the decline in OPEC+ production - increasing expectations, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded. Fundamentally, as the producing areas enter the production - increasing period and are affected by tariffs on exports, the producing areas may lower export prices, and spot quotes continue to decline. The import profit of demand countries has improved, and countries such as India have increased their ship purchases, which may limit the decline. Overall, palm oil may oscillate at a low level in the short term. If export demand fails to meet expectations, it may weaken in the medium term [4][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.56 to 48.32 cents/pound, an increase of 1.17%; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 239 to 3,975 ringgit/ton, a decline of 5.67%; the DCE palm oil contract fell 166 to 8,582 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.9%; the DCE soybean oil contract rose 14 to 7,726 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18%; the CZCE rapeseed oil contract fell 115 to 9,195 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.24%. The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 180 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 129 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong fell 150 to 9,100 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.62%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 50 to 8,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell 20 to 9,280 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.22% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil market is oscillating. Soybean oil has good anti - decline ability with increased trading volume. Rapeseed oil has supply pressure due to high inventory but may see tightened imports in the long term. Palm oil has weak supply and demand domestically, and the producing areas are in the production - increasing cycle with possible inventory accumulation. The Malaysian and Indonesian governments may lower export prices, causing the Malaysian palm oil to weaken. US soybean oil is oscillating strongly in the short term, and Canadian canola continues to rise [7]. - From April 1 - 15, 2025, in Malaysia, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area increased by 3.34%, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.12%, and palm oil production increased by 3.97%. Different shipping survey agencies showed that the export volume of palm oil products from April 1 - 15, 2025, increased compared with the same period last month, with increases ranging from 7.05% to 13.55% [8][9]. - Malaysia will keep the export tax on crude palm oil in May at 10% and lower the reference price. The simplified EUDR may not fully benefit palm oil - producing countries. Indonesian palm oil producers hope the government will cut export tariffs to the US [9]. - As of the week of April 11, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 1.837 million tons, a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous week and an increase of 99,200 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased by 97,300 tons, palm oil inventory decreased by 2,300 tons, and rapeseed oil inventory increased by 15,000 tons [9]. - As of the week of April 18, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 56,500 tons, compared with 39,580 tons in the previous week; the daily average trading volume of palm oil was 153 tons, compared with 853 tons in the previous week [10]. 3. Industry News - In 2024, Indonesia exported 680,000 tons of palm oil to Russia, an increase of about 13% compared with 2023. The goal is to export 1 million tons in the future, and the exported palm oil is mainly refined [11]. - The US Department of Agriculture's Jakarta commissioner predicts that Indonesia's palm oil production in 2025/26 will increase to 47 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons compared with 2024/25. The export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons to 24 million tons, and the ending inventory will increase from 4.9 million tons in 2024/25 to 5.29 million tons [11]. - Malaysia is optimistic and plans to adjust its palm oil export strategy to deal with new US tariff measures. The current export tariff to the US is 10% with a 90 - day suspension period. The expected export value to the US this year is 21 billion ringgit, with palm oil products contributing 4.9 billion ringgit [13]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of the main contracts of Malaysian palm oil and US soybean oil, the futures price indices of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis differences of palm oil and soybean oil, the price spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils [14][15][16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of alumina prices is limited, and there is a possibility of a subsequent decline under pressure due to the upcoming resumption of previously shut - down production capacity and the planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new alumina capacity at the end of April, which will put significant pressure on the supply side [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data - From April 10 to April 18, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 2790 yuan/ton to 2818 yuan/ton; the domestic alumina spot price dropped from 2911 yuan/ton to 2888 yuan/ton; the Australian alumina FOB increased from 330 dollars/ton to 347.5 dollars/ton; the import loss widened from 108.27 yuan/ton to 299.30 yuan/ton; the exchange warehouse inventory decreased by 9289 tons to 287681 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons. The prices of domestic bauxite in some regions changed, with the price in Shanxi (6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) dropping by 50 yuan/ton to 600 yuan/ton and in Guizhou (6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) dropping by 100 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, while the prices in Henan and Guangxi remained stable [3] Market Review - The main alumina futures contract fell 1.26% last week, closing at 2818 yuan/ton. The national weighted - average spot price on Friday was 2888 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. Domestic bauxite supply and prices were relatively stable, but future prices may face downward pressure. The production and transportation in Guinea's GIC mining area were restricted, but the impact on import prices was not significant yet. On the supply side, the roasting furnace of an alumina plant in the southwest region completed maintenance, and the operating rate increased slightly. As of April 17, China's alumina production capacity was 107.4 million tons, the operating capacity was 82.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 77%. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises had different production adjustment plans, and the theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry increased slightly by 0.5 million tons to 43.81 million tons. The alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 268 tons to 288,000 tons, and the factory warehouse inventory remained unchanged at 8100 tons [4] Market Outlook - The GIC mining area in Guinea was affected by government inspections, but it has not affected the import ore price for now. The supply - side production capacity has both increases and decreases, with the resumption of production in the southwest region and new maintenance plans in Shanxi. The demand for electrolytic aluminum remains rigid, but the spot trading has weakened as alumina prices stabilized and rebounded. Starting next week, the previously shut - down production capacity will gradually resume, which may put pressure on alumina prices. The planned addition of 1.6 million tons of new capacity at the end of April will also increase supply - side pressure [2][6] Industry News - Alumina futures prices rebounded slightly due to news from Guinea's GIC mining area, and the impact on ore supply remains to be seen. In March 2025, China imported 16.47 million tons of bauxite and concentrates, a 14% month - on - month increase and a 39.1% year - on - year increase; from January to March, the cumulative import was 47.07 million tons, a 29.9% year - on - year increase. A medium - sized alumina plant in Shanxi plans to overhaul a production line on April 19, affecting about 500,000 tons of production capacity for about 15 days [7] Related Charts - The report provides charts on alumina futures prices, spot prices, spot premiums, inter - period spreads, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, thermal coal prices, cost - profit, and exchange inventory [9][10][12]

豆粕周报 2025 年 4 月 21 日 现货供应逐步增多 连粕或震荡运行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆5月合约跌8收于1035.75美分/蒲式耳，跌 幅0.77%；豆粕05合约跌55收于2857元/吨，跌幅1.89%； 华南豆粕现货涨120收于3120元/吨，涨幅4%；菜粕05合约 跌103收于2493元/吨，跌幅3.97%；广西菜粕现货跌70收 于2380元/ ...

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 工业硅周报 成本倒挂加剧，工业硅持续下探 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅继续探底，虽然中美贸易战仍未平息，工业品 市场情绪偏弱，光伏产业供给侧改革对上游原料需求形成 持续性干扰。供应来看，新疆地区开工率回升至79%，川 滇地区开工率依然偏低，企业生产压力加大亏损面持续扩 大，供应端转入收缩；从需求侧来看，多晶硅抢装季节临 近尾声下游后市预期转向悲观，硅片价格竞争激烈成交困 难，光伏电池成本和需求支撑转弱细分市场出现价格分 化，组件市场分布式订单消费转弱头部企业降价倾销部分 销售价格已低至0.7元/瓦，集中式地面电站项目有序开工 但增量低于去年，虽然供应因成本倒挂转向收敛但终端消 费难表现出明显减速迹象，社会库存维持61.2万吨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z001778 ...

2025 年 4 月 21 日 房地产平稳为主 期价震荡走势 钢材周报 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：国务院总理李强4月18日主持召开国务院常 务会议，研究稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展的若干举 措。要持续稳定股市，持续推动房地产市场平稳健康 发展。1-3月份，全国房地产开发投资19904亿元，同 比下降9.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积613705万 平方米，同比下降9.5%。房屋 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 海外方面，特朗普关税谈判进展有限，欧盟谈判陷僵局、拟反制措施，特朗普仍称有信 心达成协议。特朗普亲自参与日美关税谈判但无实质进展，日媒表示仅同意续谈、立场分歧 明显。美国经济"软数据"仍在恶化，4 月费城联储制造业指数骤降至-26.4，创两年新低， 成本与售价预期上升，滞胀忧虑加剧。欧央行 4 月如期降息 25 基点，拉加德警告贸易不确 定性上升，欧元区复苏承压，通胀与需求前景转弱。美元指数在 99 上方震荡，美债利率回 升至 4.33%，美股涨跌互现，油价受供给推动涨幅超 3%，铜价震荡收涨，金价创新高后小 幅调整。 国内方面，"对外反制结盟友，对内稳增长稳预期"政策持续推进，习近平会见柬埔寨 人民党主席洪森，称中国将保持周边外交政策的延续性和稳定性，深化同周边国家友好合作； 李强：政策要早出手、快落地，把握时机与力度，必要时打破常规、打出组合拳，增强市场 获得感、稳住预期。地产、服务业政策预期为昨日股债博弈主线，A 股缩量收涨，地产、内 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250417 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：鲍威尔否认 Fed Put 可能性，国内二季度经济寻找新增长点 海外方面，美国 3 月零售销售月率录得 1.4%，预期 1.3%，创两年多来最大涨幅，主要 由汽车购买热潮驱动，目前美国硬数据尚可（零售、非农、CPI），但关税不确定性笼罩下 软数据持续走弱（消费者信心、通胀预期）。鲍威尔强调美联储无法抵消贸易战对经济造成 的冲击，短期内将观望数据再决策；勿指望美联储干预股市大跌，特朗普政策变动频繁，关 税超预期市场承压可以理解。美元指数震荡下行至 99.2，10Y 美债利率持续回落至 4.28%， 鲍威尔否认 Fed Put 后纳指跌幅超 3%，金价继续创下 3357 美元新高，外媒报道"中美贸易 谈判有望"提振铜、油价格。 国内方面，一季度 GDP 录得 5.4%，好于预期 5.0%；3 月抢出口带动生产强劲反弹， "以旧换新"提振社零增速，基建与制造业投资继续加速，地产投资降幅小幅扩大，然而 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US import prices in March declined more than expected, and the market is worried about inflation after the April reciprocal tariffs. Trump's tariff negotiations are progressing slowly, and the trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices and a fall in US stocks and some commodity prices. Domestically, the policy focuses on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing growth, and the A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock [2][3]. - Gold prices are strong due to risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. Copper prices are under pressure due to concerns about a global economic recession. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range. Alumina prices are in a multi - empty game and tend to stabilize and oscillate. Zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation. Lead prices will oscillate with limited one - sided drivers. Tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating due to weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term. Nickel prices will oscillate with cost support. Oil prices will continue to oscillate, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [4][6][8][10][12][13][14][16][18][19][20][21][22][23][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas: The US import prices in March declined more than expected due to the fall in energy product prices. Trump's tariff negotiations are slow. The EU expects the US not to revoke major tariffs, and Japan is not eager to reach an agreement. The trade - war has led to a rise in gold prices, a fall in US stocks, and a decline in the 10Y US Treasury yield, oil prices, and copper prices. Attention is paid to the US March retail data [2]. - Domestic: The policy focuses on "countering externally by allying and stabilizing growth and expectations internally". The A - share market shows a shrinking - volume shock, and the daily - use chemical and domestic - demand industries lead the rise. Attention is paid to the market trading volume and the first - quarter reports of listed companies, as well as China's first - quarter economic data [3]. Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious - metal futures prices rose slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 0.64% to $3246.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.43% to $32.305 per ounce. Gold prices are supported by risk - aversion demand and a weakening US dollar index. The market expects the Fed to restart rate cuts in June and cut the policy rate by 100 basis points this year. Attention is paid to Fed Chairman Powell's speech [4][5]. Copper - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract 2505 declined under pressure. The high - tariff policy may impact the global economy in the short - term, and the market may shift to a global economic recession expectation. The first - quarter import of unforged copper and copper products in China decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. The copper price rebound may be near the end, and it is expected to enter a weak oscillation in the short - term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 19,670 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The market is cautious about Trump's tariff policy. The downstream consumption is stable, and the supply is rigid. The aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but there are concerns about exports and consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate in the near - term range [8][9]. Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract fell 1.87% to 2786 yuan per ton. The cost side provides support, but the current inventory is high, and the downstream procurement is cautious. The market is in a multi - empty game, and alumina prices have limited upward space in the short - term [10][11]. Zinc - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract ZN2506 oscillated weakly. The spot market trading is not improved, and the spot premium is decreasing. The zinc ingot import window opens intermittently, and the supply - demand mismatch may be alleviated. Due to unclear tariff prospects and weak market risk preference, zinc prices are expected to remain in low - level consolidation in the short - term [12]. Lead - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract PB2505 oscillated. The supply of waste batteries is tight, and the profit of recycled lead is in deficit, with some production cuts. However, the lead - acid battery is in the off - season, and the demand is mainly for inventory digestion. Lead prices will oscillate in the short - term with limited one - sided drivers [13]. Tin - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract SN2505 oscillated. Indonesia's tin exports in March increased by 47.2% month - on - month. The supply of raw materials is less worried with the复产 of the Bisie tin mine in Congo, but the复产 of Wa State is uncertain. The demand is resilient, and tin prices will oscillate with reduced capital attention [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract declined. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is high. The supply side is shrinking, but the demand side is weak, with high inventory in the polysilicon industry and weak demand in the photovoltaic industry. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated, and the spot price decreased slightly. The market has a long - buying sentiment, but the inventory is still high, and the fundamental improvement has not been realized. Lithium carbonate prices will continue to oscillate in the short - term [18]. Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices oscillated strongly. The cost logic may support nickel prices in the medium - term, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuations caused by profit - taking. Nickel prices will oscillate [19]. Crude Oil - On Tuesday, Shanghai crude oil oscillated. The price difference between Brent and WTI crude oil is out of the normal range. Although there is an over - supply expectation, the decline of US oil is limited. Attention can be paid to the opportunity of spread convergence [20]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The steel mill profits have declined, and the short - process losses have increased, leading to an increase in maintenance willingness. The real - estate demand is weak, and the external demand is under pressure. Steel prices will oscillate due to weak supply and demand [21]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The overseas shipment has increased this week, and the arrival volume has also increased. The growth rate of molten iron production has slowed down. The port inventory has decreased, but the overseas inventory has increased. Iron ore prices will oscillate with a loose inventory situation [22]. Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the bean meal 05 contract fell 48 to 2910 yuan per ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract fell 43 to 2584 yuan per ton. The US soybean crushing in March was lower than expected. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be strong. Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate in the short - term and have a bullish medium - to - long - term outlook [23][24]. Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract fell 28 to 8720 yuan per ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first 15 days of April increased. Malaysia will maintain the 10% export tax on crude palm oil in May and lower the reference price. Palm oil prices will oscillate in the short - term and may weaken in the medium - to - long - term [25][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on the 11th exempted import tariffs for certain categories of goods, such as automatic data processors, computers, communication equipment, displays and modules, and semiconductor - related products, from "reciprocal tariffs". The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariffs on US - originated imported goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, 2025. If the US further imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China will ignore it [2][5][11]. - Last week, steel production and sales declined, inventory decreased but the decline narrowed. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coils dropped significantly, and the pattern of pressure on external demand remained unchanged. The Sino - US tariff conflict has temporarily ended, and the US has exempted some Chinese products from reciprocal tariffs. Subsequently, the two sides will enter the negotiation stage, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize [2][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3131 | - 33 | - 1.04% | 12913972 | 2995110 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3242 | - 118 | - 3.51% | 4398093 | 1164621 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 708.0 | - 80.5 | - 10.21% | 2801968 | 481877 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 892.5 | - 108.5 | - 10.84% | 2364567 | 445365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1522.0 | - 106.5 | - 6.54% | 156461 | 47275 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Steel futures fluctuated significantly last week. At the beginning of the week, prices weakened due to US tariff impacts, and then rebounded as the US tariff policy eased. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billets was 2970 (- 70) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3160 (- 70) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were at 3250 (- 100) Yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of industry data, last week, rebar production was 232 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4 million tons; apparent demand was 252 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons; rebar factory inventory was 215 million tons, an increase of 8 million tons; social inventory was 564 million tons, a decrease of 27 million tons; total inventory was 778 million tons, a decrease of 20 million tons. Hot - rolled coil production was 313 million tons, a decrease of 9 million tons; factory inventory was 86 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons; social inventory was 298 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons; total inventory was 384 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons; apparent demand was 315 million tons, a decrease of 17 million tons [2][6]. 3.3 Industry News - The US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) on the 11th issued an updated tariff schedule, exempting the import tariffs of certain categories of goods from "reciprocal tariffs" [7]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 84% to 125% starting April 12, 2025. If the US further imposes tariffs on Chinese goods, China will ignore it [11]. - From April 7th to 8th, multiple institutions such as the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and others expressed their confidence in the development prospects of the capital market and committed to maintaining its stable operation [11]. - Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs for over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10% [11]. - EU member states voted on the 9th to pass the first - round tariff counter - measures against the US, imposing up to 25% tariffs on a series of US products [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their monthly spreads, basis trends, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [10][12][14]

碳酸锂周报 2024 年 4 月 14 日 基本面边际修正 锂价或有反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面方面：国内锂盐周度供给连续走弱，4月初整车终 端销量尚可，但库存持续累库，基本面边际修正的迹象尚 不明显。而在关税政策扰动下，商品市场剧烈震荡，锂价 大幅下跌。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，锂辉石价格小幅走弱，锂云母价格 相对平稳。 ⚫ 后期观点：基本面预期边际修正，锂价或有反弹 ...