2 月社融同比多增超 7000 亿元，为连续第 3 个月同比多增，政府债券 融资是主要支撑，2025 年国债和专项债发行规模均明显高于 2024 年同 期，其中既有政府债券供给额度提升的影响，也有供给节奏靠前的影响。 2 月社融的主要拖累项是人民币贷款（社融口径），同比少增超 3000 亿 元，基本抹平 1 月的同比多增量，一方面是源于 1 月信贷"开门红"对 2 月信贷的透支，另一方面也体现出实体融资需求仍有不足。此外，化 债资金提前还贷对此也有一定拖累。 ――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 | | 周喜 | SAC NO： | S1150511010017 | 2025 | 年 | 3 月 | 17 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师： | | | | | | | | | 私人部门融资需求待提振 2 月人民币贷款同比再度转为负增长，企业部门和居民部门表现均偏弱。 其中，企业中长贷在 2 月同比少增 7500 亿元，包含了 1 月信贷冲量对 2 月数据的透支，不过，从 1-2 月合计数据来看，企业中长贷同比 ...

晨会纪要（2025/3/18） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 政府融资支撑社融――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 政府融资支撑社融――2025 年 2 月金融数据点评 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 行业专题评述 提振消费新政出台，家居、服饰估值修复可期——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业 周报 金融工程研究 权益市场主要指数延续上涨，食品饮料表现突出——公募基金周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 6 晨会纪要（2025/3/18） 1、政府融资支撑社融同比多增 2 月社融同比多增超 7000 亿元，为连续第 ...

Market Overview - The main indices in the equity market continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing the largest increase of 2.85% last week [9][10]. - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, only 2 industries experienced a decline, with food and beverage, non-bank financials, commercial trade, automotive, and leisure services being the top five performing sectors, particularly food and beverage which rose over 5% [9][15]. Valuation Analysis - The valuation of major indices mostly increased, with the historical percentile of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 4.9 percentage points and 3.4 percentage points, reaching 65.3% and 64.1% respectively [19][21]. - The historical percentile of the P/E ratio for the ChiNext Index is at a low of 19.3% [19]. - The highest P/E ratio historical percentiles among industries were for real estate, automotive, electronics, comprehensive, and building materials, with real estate reaching 90.3%, indicating potential correction risks [19][22]. Fund Performance - In the public fund market, equity funds performed relatively well, with quantitative funds rising over 1% [24]. - The average weekly net value of FOF funds decreased by 0.40%, with only 5.57% showing positive returns, while QDII funds averaged a decline of 2.04% with a positive return ratio of 23.37% [24][25]. ETF Market Insights - The cross-border ETF saw a net inflow of 9.938 billion yuan, with the overall ETF market achieving an average daily trading volume of 262.592 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 10.32% [33][34]. - The top five ETF tracking indices by scale were the CSI 300 Index, CSI A500 Index, STAR Market 50 Index, SSE 50 Index, and CSI Small Cap 500 Index [34][36]. Fund Issuance Statistics - A total of 19 new funds were issued last week, a decrease of 28 from the previous period, including 10 passive index funds primarily tracking stocks [37][38]. - The total amount raised by newly established funds was 17.807 billion yuan, with the largest being the Jin Ying CSI Interbank Certificate of Deposit AAA Index 7-day holding fund, raising approximately 5.001 billion yuan [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the light industry manufacturing and textile apparel sectors [4][29] - The report recommends "Increase" ratings for specific companies: Oppein Home, Sophia, Explorer, Semir Apparel, and Guibao Pet [4][29] Core Insights - The introduction of the "Consumption Boosting Special Action Plan" by the government aims to significantly stimulate domestic demand, benefiting sectors such as home furnishings, apparel, and pets [3][28] - From a valuation perspective, as of March 14, 2025, the PE-TTM for the home goods sector is 26.65 times and for the apparel sector is 28.06 times, both significantly lower than their historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [3][28] Industry News - A major paper company in the Middle East has launched the largest paper production line in the region, enhancing its global market position [9] - Gap Inc. reported strong fourth-quarter results with a net income of $206 million, reflecting the success of its transformation strategy [9] Company Announcements - Tianyuan Pet plans to acquire Taotong Technology through a combination of stock issuance and cash payment [21] - Nanshan Zhishang reported a 5.82% decline in net profit year-on-year, attributed to increased interest expenses and weak performance in its fine woolen fabric business [22] Market Review - From March 10 to March 14, the light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.18 percentage points, with notable performances in home goods and packaging printing [23] - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 2.36 percentage points during the same period, driven by strong performance in the jewelry segment [25] Weekly Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of the government's consumption boosting policies and their expected positive impact on the recovery of domestic consumption trends in related sectors [28]

行 业 研 行业周报 ――轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 究 | 分析师： 袁艺博 | | | SAC NO： S1150521120002 2025 年 3 月 | 17 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | [Table_Author] 证券分析师 | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： | | | | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | 022-23839135 | | | 行业要闻 | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com | | | （1）中东纸业巨头再出手，打造中东最大造纸生产线。 | | | | [Table_Contactor] | | | （2）Gap 第四季度业绩强劲，转型策略见效。 | | | | [Table_Contactor] [Table_IndInvest] 子行业评级 | | | | | | 证 | 家居用品 | 中性 | | | | | | 造纸 | 中性 |  | 公司重要公告 | | | 券 | 包装印刷 | 中性 | | （1）天元宠物：公司拟通过发行股份及支付现金的方式购买淘通科技。 | ...

晨会纪要（2025/3/17） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 宏观及策略分析 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足——宏观经济周报 金融工程研究 利率整体上行，波动幅度较大――利率债周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2025/3/17） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足——宏观经济周报 周 喜（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150511010017） 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 1、外围环境而言 美国方面，2 月通胀数据全面低于市场预期，结束此前连续 4 个月的反弹。关税政策摇摆不定令消费者信心 受 ...

宏观经济分析报告 5 美国衰退预期发酵，国内需求仍显不足 ――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威 [Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 3 月 14 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，2 月通胀数据全面低于市场预期，结束 此前连续 4 个月的反弹。关税政策摇摆不定令消费者信心受挫，驱动 商品通胀阶段性走低；服务通胀则继续受到房租价格和薪资增速支撑 降温缓慢。预计短期通胀仍将受关税影响无法顺利实现目标，但鉴于 消费需求走弱，整体也并不具备超预期上行的基础。劳动力市场方面， 私人部门就业表现较强， ...

Market Overview - In the past five trading days (March 7 to March 13), major indices mostly declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.66% and the ChiNext Index down by 3.07% [5][19] - The trading volume decreased slightly, with a total of 8.10 trillion yuan, a reduction of 231.27 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.62 trillion yuan [9][19] Economic Indicators - February CPI showed a decline in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates, primarily due to high base effects and seasonal decreases in food prices [23] - PPI continued to show negative growth in February, influenced by traditional industrial production off-seasons and fluctuations in international commodity prices [23] Policy Developments - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the need for timely policy implementation to address uncertainties and stimulate consumption, indicating a proactive approach to economic management [25][27] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is set to launch a new round of capital market reforms, focusing on optimizing stock issuance and merger restructuring systems to support quality innovative enterprises [27][28] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that external risk disturbances, changes in earnings expectations, and the pace of economic policy implementation will be critical for market development [28] - There is a potential shift from concept-driven market movements to performance-driven trends, particularly as the technology sector may unlock development bottlenecks [28] - Industry allocation should consider defensive attributes of dividend sectors (such as banking and home appliances) and thematic investment opportunities in the TMT sector driven by AI trends, while being cautious of increased short-term volatility [28]

晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_Contactor] 编辑人 [Table_MainInfo] 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要 崔健 022-28451618 SACNO: S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 晨会纪要（2025/3/14） [Table_MorningSection] 宏观及策略分析 低位板块表现活跃，行情等待驱动换轨——A 股市场投资策略周报 宋亦威（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150514080001） 严佩佩（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150520110001） 靳沛芃（研究助理，SAC NO：S1150124030005） 投资要点： 1、市场回顾 近 5 个交易日（3 月 7 日-3 月 13 日），重要指数多数收跌；其中，上证综指收跌 0.66%，创业板指收跌 3.07%； 风格层面，沪深 300 收跌 1.13%，中证 500 收跌 0.89%。成交量方面小幅缩量，两市统计区间内成交 8.10 万 亿元，较前五个交易日减少 ...

| 公 | | | | | | | | | | 公司深度报告 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 司 |  | [Table_MainInfo] | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝行业"绿色先锋"，业绩弹性有望释放 | | | | | | | 研 | | | | | | | | | ——云铝股份（000807）深度报告 | | | | 究 | 分析师： | 张珂 | | SAC NO： S1150523120001 年 3 月 | 12 | | 2025 | | | | 日 | | | [Table_Analysis] 有色金属——工业金属 | | | [Table_Summary] | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |  铝行业"绿色先锋"，24 年公司业绩好转 | | | | | | | | | | [T ...