1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of weak oil and strong gas remains, and the PG futures market is consolidating. The downstream prices of propylene and PP are continuously falling, which suppresses the profit of PDH plants and affects the short - term shutdown of some enterprises. The alkane deep - processing sector maintains a relative balance between "start - up and profit". Although the domestic crude oil processing volume has declined, the start - up rate has increased. The olefin deep - processing in Northeast Asia is supported by the strong demand for oil blending, and the natural gas price also brings potential positive factors to the NGLs market. Therefore, the PG price on the futures market is expected to remain strong, and the oil - gas cracking spread will fluctuate at a high level [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The main contract of LPG futures continued to fluctuate in the range of 4230 - 4420 yuan/ton. International crude oil prices rose during the week, and international LPG trading was relatively active with rising transaction prices, boosting market confidence. In the domestic spot market, the supply of domestic gas decreased. Although the chemical demand for propane declined, the falling temperature was beneficial to the combustion demand, and the expectation of peak - season demand still existed, so the futures market was firm. As of Thursday, the basis in East China was - 72 yuan/ton, - 47 yuan/ton in South China, and - 37 yuan/ton in Shandong. The lowest deliverable product was set in East China [6]. 3.2 Supply - Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 505,900 tons (- 0.90%), including 203,800 tons of civil gas (+ 0.25%) and 195,600 tons of industrial gas (- 3.46%), and 173,900 tons of post - ether C4. The arrival volume of LPG was 620,000 tons (+ 12.30%). Two refineries in the Northwest and one in East China shut down, while enterprises in Shandong, South China, and East China started production, but the incremental volume was less than the loss. Next week, an ethylene plant in South China is planned to shut down, and the external supply of refineries will increase. Other production devices may change little, and the domestic commercial volume is expected to recover [4]. 3.3 Demand - The heating demand in winter is gradually approaching, and the combustion demand for LPG is gradually improving with a slow recovery in overall demand. Although the weak PN spread has increased the relative economic efficiency of LPG as a cracking raw material, the substitution effect is limited due to the weak demand for downstream olefins. The supply of the Chinese propylene market is severely excessive, and the high - load operation of PDH plants has suppressed the procurement demand for raw material propane. Driven by the structural tightness of gasoline in the Atlantic Basin, European and American blenders have a strong demand for MTBE, which directly translates into a stable demand for its upstream raw material, isobutane, providing key support for the LPG market and triggering cross - regional trade flows [4]. 3.4 Inventory - Last week, the in - plant inventory of LPG was 181,800 tons (+ 34%). Except for the slight relief of inventory in the western region due to the decline in supply, most markets were restricted by weak demand, and the shipment slowed down to varying degrees, resulting in a certain increase in inventory. At the ports, the number of arriving ships increased this period, and some arriving resources last week were unloaded this week. With sufficient imported resources and more arriving ships, the ports showed a trend of inventory accumulation [4]. 3.5 Basis and Position - The weekly average basis was - 44.00 yuan/ton in East China, - 10.80 yuan/ton in South China, and - 1.20 yuan/ton in Shandong. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts was 4,561 lots, with no change. The lowest deliverable location was East China [4]. 3.6 Chemical Downstream - The operating rates were 69.64% for PDH, 58.91% for MTBE, and 42.33% for alkylation. The profits were - 378 yuan/ton for PDH - made propylene, - 201 yuan/ton for MTBE isomerization, and - 531 yuan/ton for alkylation in Shandong [4]. 3.7 Valuation - The PG - SC ratio was 1.32 (+ 1.81%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary contracts was 60 yuan/ton (- 36.17%). In the fourth quarter, the LPG price was firm, while the crude oil price showed a bearish trend, and the oil - gas cracking spread fluctuated at a high level [4]. 3.8 Other Factors - The US Department of Labor announced that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21. The G20 Summit opened in Johannesburg, South Africa on November 22. The Ukrainian and US delegations will hold consultations in Switzerland on the possible parameters of a peace agreement with Russia. Sino - Japanese relations have deteriorated due to the remarks of the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, and China has taken corresponding counter - measures [4]. 3.9 Investment and Trading Strategies - Investment view: Bullish. Trading strategy: For unilateral trading, temporarily wait and do not chase the long position; for arbitrage, pay attention to the positive spread between months on dips. Risk concerns include Sino - US tariffs, US sanctions on Russia, freight rate changes, and device changes [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 美联储内部分歧加剧，贵金属承压回落 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-11-24 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周贵金属有所承压，周线整体收跌。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）美联储官员上 半周表态偏鹰，加上美联储10月会议纪要进一步暴露美联储内部对于12月降息的分歧日益 加剧，同时美国政府明确10月非农、CPI数据均不公布，这意味着美联储官员在年内最后 一次会议前可能将同时失去就业、通胀两项关键经济数据，不得不促使美联储谨慎控制降 息节奏。受此影响，美联储12月降息概率骤降，美股、比特币等资产全线下挫，流动性紧 缩下贵金属价格亦承压下挫。但随着恐慌指数回升，上周五晚间，美联储官员安抚市场， 称预计未来还会进一步降息，且有官员表态预计不久美联储将重新扩表，美联储降息预期 再度回升，流动性紧缩风险有所缓和，贵金属跌幅收窄。（2）俄罗斯央行开始抛售实物 黄金，一度对金价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the methanol market is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market's supply and demand were basically balanced, with a slight increase in port arrivals but limited inventory fluctuations. Downstream demand recovered, and the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as olefins and dimethyl ether increased, driving up consumption. Coal prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and a slight increase in logistics freight rates supported the market. It is expected that methanol prices will maintain a stable and slightly stronger trend. Market participants are advised to pay attention to the recovery of downstream demand and changes in port inventory to seize market opportunities. The overall market shows a positive interaction between supply and demand, with limited price fluctuation space, and investors can moderately focus on structural opportunities [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, methanol supply showed a steady and slightly increasing trend. Port arrivals increased slightly, and imports in South China significantly increased, leading to continuous inventory reduction in major consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian. In terms of logistics, freight rates in major methanol regions increased slightly, with the freight rates from Ordos to Dongying and from Shaanxi to Dongying increasing by about 9% and 5% respectively week - on - week, providing some cost support for supply. On the demand side, the operating rates of major downstream sectors such as methanol - to - olefins and dimethyl ether increased slightly, enhancing the overall digestion capacity of methanol. The market presented a positive interaction between supply and demand. Although supply increased slightly, supported by the recovery of downstream demand, supply and demand remained relatively balanced, and inventory fluctuations were limited. Overall, the methanol market supply was moderately loose, but supported by downstream demand, the market operated smoothly without obvious supply surplus or shortage [2] Demand - This week, methanol demand showed a structurally differentiated pattern. The demand in major downstream sectors such as olefins, dimethyl ether, and glacial acetic acid was good. The average weekly operating rate of olefin enterprises increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether increased significantly, mainly driven by the restart of Xinlianxin's plant. The operating load of the glacial acetic acid industry increased by 3.24 percentage points, and the resumption of production at plants such as Anhui Huayi promoted the overall recovery of the industry. However, the downstream demand for formaldehyde was obviously weak. Affected by environmental protection control in autumn and winter, the operating rates of the panel industry in northern Jiangsu and Henan decreased, resulting in a significant reduction in formaldehyde procurement demand. At the same time, the downstream loads of MTBE and methane chloride decreased, while products such as DMF and methylal maintained stable operation. Overall, methanol demand presented a pattern of "strong and weak co - existing". The demand in major downstream sectors was well - supported, but the demand in some areas weakened due to policy influence. The overall market demand was moderate, providing some support for methanol prices but without obvious upward momentum [2] Inventory - This week, methanol inventory showed a regional differentiated pattern. The inventory in port areas continued to decline. In consumption areas such as Guangdong and Fujian, due to the rigid demand consumption and stable提货 volume of downstream industries, the inventory decreased steadily. The total inventory in major ports was 1.6085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.91%, indicating that the overall inventory pressure had been relieved. The estimated port arrivals in late November are expected to increase slightly, but due to the continuous support of the reverse - flow window for提货 and the uncertain unloading situation, inventory fluctuations are limited. The inventory of upstream production enterprises remained at a low level, providing some support for the production areas. However, against the background of high inventory supply in coastal areas, attention should be paid to the possible impact on regional prices if low - priced imported goods flow back to inland markets such as Shandong. Overall, methanol inventory was within a reasonable range, supply and demand were basically balanced, and the market operated steadily [2] Methanol Profit - The profits of methanol production enterprises were generally under pressure, and all process routes showed a downward trend. The profit decline of coal - to - methanol enterprises was the most obvious, mainly due to the increase in coal prices pushing up costs, while the methanol market price decreased simultaneously, forming a double squeeze. The theoretical profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia has turned negative, and the loss has widened compared with last week. Other process routes such as coke oven gas - to - methanol and natural gas - to - methanol also faced profit pressure, and the loss of natural gas - to - methanol in Southwest China intensified. Overall, the pressure on the cost side and the weakness on the price side formed a double squeeze, continuously narrowing the profit margin of methanol production enterprises, and the overall industry profit performance was weak [2] Downstream Profit - The profits of downstream industries showed an obvious recovery trend, mainly due to the relief of cost pressure brought about by the decline in the price of raw material methanol. The profit improvement in the MTO and glacial acetic acid industries was the most significant, and the profit levels increased significantly. Although the MTBE industry was weak in its own market, after the reduction of raw material costs, its profit still failed to turn positive, only showing a narrowing of the loss. The profits of industries such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chloride fluctuated slightly and remained relatively stable. The improvement of downstream industry profits provided positive support for methanol demand, helped relieve the supply - demand pressure in the methanol market, and provided some bottom support for methanol prices [2] Spot Prices - The report provides the spot prices of methanol in various regions from November 19th to 21st, 2025, including regions such as Taicang (import, different time periods), Hebei, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, Henan, Sichuan, Dongying, etc., along with their daily and previous - day price changes and corresponding percentage changes [4] Market Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend chart of the main methanol futures contract (showing closing price, settlement price, and trading volume), basis and monthly spread charts, methanol production and operating rate charts, profit charts of different methanol production processes, factory inventory and order quantity charts, port inventory charts, and profit and operating rate charts of downstream industries [5][8][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, long - term supply and demand remains bearish. With the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, oil prices will still fluctuate in the short term, and the long - term price center tends to decline [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA slightly raises the forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC's October production data shows different trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. IEA also reports production changes in October. Overall, it is bearish [3] - **Demand (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand growth in 2025 and 2026, with a neutral outlook [3] - **Inventory (Short - Term)**: U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreases, while strategic petroleum reserve inventory increases. There are also changes in refined oil inventories, showing a bullish sign [3] - **Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - to - Long - Term)**: OPEC+ plans to increase production slightly in December, which may exacerbate concerns about market supply glut. Saudi Arabia's exports and production reach new highs, being bearish [3] - **Geopolitics (Short - Term)**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan and U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to have a bearish impact on oil prices [3] - **Macro - Finance (Short - Term)**: U.S. employment data and the Fed's interest - rate cut probability changes are bearish factors for oil prices [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, sell on rebounds; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [3] Part Two: Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: The progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and the rise of the U.S. dollar index lead to a weak decline in international oil prices. As of November 21, WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all fall [7] - **Month - to - Month Spread & Domestic - Foreign Spread**: Near - month spreads weaken, while domestic - foreign spreads strengthen [11] - **Forward Curve**: Near - month spreads strengthen [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel crack spreads all strengthen [31][43] Part Three: Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In October 2025, global crude oil production decreases according to EIA. Different organizations report different production trends for OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries. U.S. production also shows changes [65][90] - **Inventory**: U.S. commercial inventory decreases, and Cushing inventory also declines. Northwest European crude oil inventory rises, while Singapore fuel oil inventory falls [91][99] - **Demand**: In the U.S., gasoline implied demand decreases, and refinery operating rates increase. In China, refinery weekly crude oil processing volume shows different trends, and refinery profits improve [109][127] - **Macro - Finance**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December decreases, and the U.S. dollar index rebounds [140] - **CFTC Positioning**: Speculative net short positions in WTI crude oil increase [143] Team Introduction - The energy and chemical research center team of Guomao Futures has 6 members with diverse professional backgrounds and rich experience in fundamental and spot - futures research. The team has won many awards [155]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, which is rated as "oscillating" [3] Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is declining slightly, and the futures market is oscillating weakly. Factors such as supply, demand, inventory, profit, and valuation all have different impacts on the market, resulting in an overall situation of weak fluctuations [3] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 tons to 84 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%. There were regional differences in load changes [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, and non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 90.09%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59%. The comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained flat [3] - **Inventory**: Although there was some destocking, the inventory of sample enterprises increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 427,600 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.32% and a year - on - year increase of 80.65%. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage ratio increased [3] - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 97%. The average price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31.90% [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price was neutral, the absolute futures price was low, and the near - month contract was at a discount [3] - **Macro Policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector subsided, and the market traded based on fundamentals [3] - **Investment View and Strategy**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. There are no suggestions for unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The futures market was range - bound. The Shandong spot market was weak, and the futures had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year, and the chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The subsequent supply pressure may increase, and the spot price is expected to decline oscillatingly [9] - **Spot Market**: The spot price was declining slightly [7] - **Position**: The total position increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25] Part Three: Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - **Electricity Price**: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33] - **Production**: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased [37] - **Chlor - Alkali Profit**: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [38] - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [41] - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate in Henan increased significantly [53][54] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum demand entered the seasonal off - season, and production started to decline [64][65] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [72] - **Subsequent Maintenance**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [77]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纸浆周报（SP)】 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-11-24 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号： 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 F03134647 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 纸浆交易逻辑转向"弱需求"，考虑1-5反套 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 智利Arauco公司10月针叶浆银星报价680美元/吨，阔叶浆明星报价540美元/吨，本色浆金星报价590美元/吨，进口报价总体表现为针叶 | 供给 | 偏空 | | | 浆下降，阔叶浆上涨的情况；2025年10月中国纸浆产量为208.4万吨，环比上涨10.2%，纸浆供给端较为宽松。 | | | | | 需求 | 中性偏多 | 主要木浆用纸产量基本保持稳定，白卡纸价格出现明显上涨且有去库的趋势，生活用纸价格略有上涨，其余纸种保持稳定。 | | | 截 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - favorable expectations support the rubber price to steadily rise tentatively. Some cis - butadiene rubber plants are planned for scheduled rotation maintenance, but the overall operating rate is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of November 20, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,700 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,700 - 10,800 yuan/ton. In the Shandong market, the price of cis - butadiene rubber was in a stalemate, with the spot price ranging from 10,000 to 10,800 yuan/ton. The cost support strengthened, driving the supply and market prices to rise slightly, but downstream resistance to price increases emerged [6]. - The report also presents price data of various synthetic rubber products such as butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber, including ex - factory prices and market prices, as well as their daily and weekly changes [7][8]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Butadiene: Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 115,600 tons (a 1.75% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.53%. Some plants such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical remained shut down, while Guangxi Petrochemical stably increased production, leading to an overall increase in total production [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhenhua New Materials restarted, the cis - butadiene rubber plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance, and the cis - butadiene plant of Maoming Petrochemical is expected to undergo regular maintenance next week. The high - cis cis - butadiene rubber production last week was 29,200 tons (a 3.88% increase), with a capacity utilization rate of 72.64% [3]. 3.2.2 Demand - Semi - steel tires: The semi - steel tire market remained stable during the period. The all - season tire market was still dull, with channels mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and the inventory clearance rhythm did not change significantly. The supply of winter tires was abundant, and terminal sales advanced steadily [3]. - All - steel tires: This week, the all - steel tire market was relatively stable compared to last week, with weak trading. Due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand weakened, channel inventory was relatively sufficient, and merchants' willingness to restock was limited. However, as inventory is digested and monthly purchase tasks are due, agents are still expected to make purchases in the next cycle [3]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - Butadiene: Last week, the port inventory of butadiene was 39,800 tons, a 37.24% increase from the previous week. Most refinery plants were operating stably, but some enterprises' inventory increased due to downstream load and external sales trading rhythm. Port inventory increased due to relatively concentrated vessel arrivals and slow spot price increases [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The combined inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 31,510 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week. Raw material buyers were actively following up, the cost support for cis - butadiene rubber strengthened slightly, production enterprise inventory increased, and trading enterprise inventory changed slightly [3]. 3.4 Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North China was - 335 yuan/ton, in East China was - 135 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 85 yuan/ton [3]. - Spread/Price Ratio: The RU - BR spread was 4855 yuan/ton (a 1.78% increase); the NR - BR spread was 1900 yuan/ton (a 4.40% increase); the BR - SC price ratio was 0.21 [3]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - Butadiene: The production gross profit from butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1514 yuan/ton, and that from C4 extraction was 194.88 yuan/ton [3]. - Cis - butadiene rubber: The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 784 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 7.91% [3]. 3.6 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The US Department of Labor reported that the non - farm payrolls in September increased by 119,000, far exceeding the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Department of Labor also revised down the non - farm payroll data for July and August [3]. - US sanctions on top Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil took effect on November 21 [3]. - There are expectations that China and the US will reach an agreement to reduce tariffs on November 27 [3]. - Delegations from Ukraine and the US will hold consultations in Switzerland on the parameters of a possible future peace agreement with Russia [3]. - China has taken counter - measures due to remarks by the Japanese Prime Minister on the Taiwan issue, leading to a deterioration in Sino - Japanese relations [3]. 3.7 Investment Views and Trading Strategies - Investment View: The overall operating rate of cis - butadiene rubber is gradually recovering. The trading center of butadiene has moved up, the mainstream supply price of cis - butadiene rubber has been gradually raised, the synthetic processing profit is still good, and the futures price fluctuates strongly [3]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, there is no recommendation. For arbitrage, pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance conditions, and geopolitical situations [3].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-24 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 03 铁矿石 铁 矿 基 本 面 依 然 偏 弱 ， 上 方 压 力 明 确 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 价 格 低 位 区 间 震 荡 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 焦 炭 提 降 预 期 增 强 ， 盘 面 贴 水 计 价 2 - 3 轮预期 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：价格低位区间震荡，等待新驱动 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 本周铁水产量弱稳，未能延续上涨，当周铁 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:宏观情绪偏弱 ，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周，我国LLDPE产量总计在30.46吨，较上周下跌1.20%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率82.71%，较上周期减少了0.43个百分点。本周期装 | | | | 置情况来看，内中天合创、中英石化、万华化学、吉林石化等装置存在检修情况，存量检修装置多于周后期重启，因此产能利用率环比下跌。 | | 需求 | 偏多 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%；PE包装膜开工率较前期+0.5%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期+0.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.1%； ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Corn Series Data Daily Report [3] - Researcher: Huang Xianglan from the Agricultural Products Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price and Data Information Spot Prices - Corn Spot: Prices in various regions on November 21st remained mostly stable, with some exceptions like Inner Mongolia - Tongliao up 20 yuan/ton and Inner Mongolia - Chifeng up 30 yuan/ton. For example, Jinzhou Port FOB price was 2220 yuan/ton, and Heilongjiang - Harbin was 2030 yuan/ton [5]. - Corn Starch Spot: The price in Jilin Province was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - Wheat Spot: Prices in Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu were 2534 yuan/ton, 2518 yuan/ton, and 2525 yuan/ton respectively, with Jiangsu up 2 yuan/ton [5]. Futures Prices - Corn Main Contract Closing Price: 2241 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, with a C01 - 05 spread of -57 [5]. - Corn Starch Main Contract Closing Price: 2590 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan, with a CS01 - 05 spread of -66 [5]. International Data - US Corn Closing Price: 437.75 cents per bushel, with an imported US corn duty - paid price of 2149.25 yuan/ton and an estimated profit of 220.75 yuan/ton. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 7.11 [5]. Spread Data - Starch - Corn (Main Continuous): 349; Starch - Corn (Jilin Spot Average): 440 [5]. Inventory Data - North Port Corn Inventory: 117.0 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Domestic: 27.3 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - Northeast: 177.5 million tons; Guangdong Port Corn Inventory - Foreign: 35.5 million tons; Deep - processing Corn Inventory - North China: 75.4 million tons [5] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis Supply - Northeast production areas face concentrated supply pressure later, with attention on the selling pressure from December to January. The 25/26 planting cost continues to decline, the sown area is slightly reduced, the yield per unit is good, and a bumper harvest is expected. Imported grain policy restrictions continue, and the supply of imported grains is shrinking [5]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply. Enterprises with low inventory have a rigid demand for replenishing corn, and deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs. Channel traders have a strong purchasing willingness [5]. Inventory - Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation speed at North Ports is slow, while the corn inventory at South Ports is rising. With the supplement of imported grains, the overall grain inventory is increasing. With the addition of new - season corn, ports are expected to be in the inventory - accumulation stage. Feed enterprise inventory is low, and deep - processing corn is seasonally accumulating inventory [5]. Group 4: Core View - In the short term, factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tension in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory lead to a temporary supply shortage, postponing the selling pressure. Before the supply pressure is fully released, the market's ability to accept high - priced corn is limited. The futures price is expected to have limited rebound and will face pressure tests later. Attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress, logistics, and weather [13]