FICC日报 | 2026-02-03 风险 股指调整迎配置良机 市场分析 美联储按兵不动。宏观方面，商务部等九单位启动2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动，涵盖"好吃""好住""好行""好 游""好购""好玩"六方面内容。活动时间为2月15至23日春节9天假期，旨在打造全域联动、全民乐享的春节消费盛 宴。海外方面，美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高于预期的48.5，创2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单 和产出稳健增长的提振。 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，上证指数跌2.48%收于4015.75点，创业板指跌2.46%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，仅食品饮料、银行行业收红，有色金属、钢铁、基础化工、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市成 交额约为2.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.05%报49407.66点。 期指基差回落。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货基差大幅回落。成交持仓方面，股指期货成交量增加，仅IM持仓 量同步增加。 策略 当日国内市场逐步消化海外流动性预期的波动影响，中证500、中证1000的波动幅度相对更为明显，所受冲击也较 为突出。不过从当前市场状态来看，经过调 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global trade uncertainties increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan (+0.47%); M2 year - on - year growth was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% (+6.25%); Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% (-1.60%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 97.61, up 0.49 (+0.50%); The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9411, down 0.011 (-0.16%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.01%); DR007 was 1.49, down 0.10 (-6.40%); R007 was 1.68, up 0.17 (+11.44%); The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, unchanged (+0.00%); The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, unchanged (+0.00%) [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury and Treasury Futures Market The report provides multiple charts showing the trends and proportions related to the treasury futures market, including the closing prices, price changes, precipitation of funds, positions, and net positions of various treasury futures varieties [13][14][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report presents charts on the inter - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, local government bond issuance, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, treasury bond issuance, Shibor interest rate trends, and the yield trends of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) [24][27][29]. IV. Spread Overview The report shows the trends of inter - period spreads of various treasury futures varieties and the spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads through multiple charts [34][35][37]. V. Two - Year Treasury Futures The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the two - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Futures The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the maturity yield of the five - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [47][55]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Futures The report offers charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the ten - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [56][57]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Futures The report contains charts on the implied yield and the maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [62][67]. 4. Strategies - **Unilateral**: As the repurchase rate declines, the prices of treasury futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for moderate hedging [4].

石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-03 盘面大幅回撤，沥青基差反弹 市场分析 1、2月2日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3299元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌169元/吨，跌幅 4.87%；持仓127490手，环比下跌18383手，成交297354手，环比下跌65479手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3550元/吨；山东，3250—3300元/吨；华南，3300—3320元/吨； 华东，3200—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块整体上涨背后有来自宏观、地缘、资金面等多重因素的驱动，上周五特朗普提名凯文沃什作为新一 任美联储主席，美元指数低位反弹，宏观情绪有所转弱，大宗商品流动性整体出现阶段性退潮。站在地缘层面来 看，上周伊朗局势较为紧张，市场担忧美国与以色列对伊朗采取军事打击，导致油市地缘溢价一度大幅攀升。周 末并未爆发冲突，从伊朗和美方最新表态来看局势有边际缓和的迹象，地缘溢价有所回落。在前期推涨因素退潮 后，昨日能源板块整体出现大幅下跌，沥青期货盘面跟随板块走低。 站在沥青自身市场结构的角度，目前基本面处于供需两弱格局，近期期货大涨带动基差走低，盘面大幅回撤时现 货端 ...

贵金属日报 | 2026-02-03 亚太市场"黑色星期一" 贵金属市场巨震 亚太金融市场遭遇"黑色星期一"，美联储政策不确定性引发抛售。韩国综指收盘跌5.26%，印尼综指跌4.88%，盘 中均一度触发熔断。日经225指数跌1.25%。A股、港股三大股指均跌超2%，资源股遭遇重挫，国内期货市场大宗 商品10多个品种跌停。泰国黄金线上期货一度暂停交易。地缘方面，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬下令同美国启动核谈判， 伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。消息人士称，预计美国特使威特科夫和伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐将于2 月6日在土耳其伊斯坦布尔会晤，讨论"可能的核协议"。此外，俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫确认，将于当地时间 2月4日至5日在阿布扎比进行下一轮乌克兰问题谈判。消息面上，美国总统特朗普计划启动一项战略关键矿产储备 项目"金库计划"（Project Vault），初始资金规模达120亿美元，旨在保护美国制造商免受供应冲击的影响。 期货行情与成交量： 2026-02-02，沪金主力合约开于1140.00元/克，收于1008.60元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-13.16%。当日成交量为 41087手，持仓量为129725手。 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-03 宏观与地缘扰动，盘面跟随板块下跌 市场分析 1、 2月2日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4520；东北市场，3840-4100；华北市场，4200-4530；华东市场，4120-4400； 沿江市场，4840-5130；西北市场，4300-4470；华南市场，4800-4900。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年2月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷610美元/吨，跌25美元/吨，丁烷605美元/吨，跌20美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4680元/吨，跌196元/吨，丁烷4642元/吨，跌196元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷602美元/吨，跌25美元/吨，丁烷597美元/吨，跌25美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4619元/吨，跌196元/吨，丁烷4581元/吨，跌196元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近期能源板块整体上涨背后有来自宏观、地缘、资金面等多重因素的驱动，上周五特朗普提名凯文沃什作为新一 任美联储主席，美元指数低位反弹，宏观情绪有所转弱，大宗商品流动性整体出现阶段性退潮。站在地缘层面来 看，上周伊 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 库存方面，截止2026-02-02，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存81.7万吨，较上一期变化3.5万吨，仓单库存150459 吨，较上一交易日变化5388吨，LME铝库存497175吨，较上一交易日变化1450吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2026-02-02SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2610元/吨，山东价格录得2555元/吨，河南价格录得 2635元/吨，广西价格录得2675元/吨，贵州价格录得2735元/吨，澳洲氧化铝FOB价格录得308美元/吨。 氧化铝期货方面：2026-02-02氧化铝主力合约开于2767元/吨，收于2772元/吨，较上一交易日收盘价变化-17 元/吨，变化幅度-0.61%，最高价达到2836元/吨，最低价为2738元/吨。全天交易日成交983744手，全天交易日 持仓375783手。 铝合金价格方面：2026-02-02保太民用生铝采购价格17100元/吨，机械生铝采购价格17500元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化-600元/吨。ADC12保太报价23300元/吨，价格环比昨日变化-600元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.73万吨，厂内库存7. ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-03 库存小幅增加淡季开始显现 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-8.41美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-820元/吨至24970元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水-45元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至25000元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-15元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-820元/吨至24920元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-95元/吨。 期货方面：2026-02-02沪锌主力合约开于25735元/吨，收于24515元/吨，较前一交易日-1805元/吨，全天交易日成交 446017手，全天交易日持仓91209手，日内价格最高点达到25905元/吨，最低点达到24245元/吨。 库存方面：截至2026-02-02，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化0.86万吨。截止2026-02-02，LME 锌库存为109100吨，较上一交易日变化-900吨。 市场分析 消费进入淡季表现确认，绝对价格的回落对下游采购刺激性有限，华东华南贴水小幅修复，天津地区贴水继续扩 大。社会库存开始进入累库初期，累库幅度相对较缓，库存绝对值依 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The February contract valuation bottom of the container shipping index (European Line) futures may be around 1700 points, and factors such as vessel schedule delays and the online cargo collection ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [5]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate driver is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding strategies in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. - For more distant contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain. With relatively fewer ultra - large vessel deliveries in 2026, there may still be an expectation gap. Investors can consider arbitrage opportunities in contracts such as long EC2606 short EC2610 and long EC2608 short EC2610 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping alliances on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for WEEK6 - WEEK9 are 1295/2070, 1230/1960, 1205/1910, and 1200/1900 respectively; HPL's quotes for February and March also show differences [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Geopolitically, a White House official will visit Israel and meet with Netanyahu [3]. - Static supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided, with relatively less delivery pressure for ultra - large ships in 2026 [3]. - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [4]. 3.3 Contract and Price Analysis - The final trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. The preliminary estimated valuation bottom of the February contract delivery settlement price is around 1700 points [5]. - The freight rate before the Spring Festival is weakly driven. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. The freight rates of some shipping companies in March have increased, and the capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The April contract is expected to fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None currently [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of February 2, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures is 58,198 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 42,731 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8]. - The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on February 1 and February 2 are also given [8].

农产品日报 | 2026-02-03 棉价内强外弱，郑糖低位整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14575元/吨，较前一日变动-95元/吨，幅度-0.65%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15806元/吨，较前一日变动-134元/吨，现货基差CF05+1231，较前一日变动-39；3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨， 较前一日变动-113元/吨，现货基差CF05+1495，较前一日变动-18。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，1月23日至1月29日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验2.44万吨，78.1% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为2.14万吨，皮马棉为0.30万吨。至同期，累计分级检验296.18 万吨，81.8%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为287.90万吨，皮马棉为8.28万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，25/26年度全球供需格局整体仍偏宽松，最新一周美棉出口签约再度转弱，终 端需求受关税政策以及地缘政治局势恶化影响，整体表现疲软，短期ICE美棉预计仍将维持低位震荡。中长期看， 美棉已处于低估 ...

化工日报 | 2026-02-03 青岛港口库存小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15980元/吨，较前一日变动-380元/吨；NR主力合约12925元/吨，较前一日变动-310 元/吨；BR主力合约12900元/吨，较前一日变动-490元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15800元/吨，较前一日变动-350元/吨。青岛保税区泰混15000元/吨，较前一 日变动-230元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1925美元/吨，较前一日变动-35美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1865 美元/吨，较前一日变动-40美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格13000元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价12700元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年12月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量80.34万吨，环比增 加24.84%，同比增加25.4%，2025年1-12月累计进口数量667.51万吨，累计同比增加17.94%。 据中国海关总署1月18日公布的数据显示，2025年中国橡胶轮胎出口量达965万吨， ...