1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation is weak while the expectation is strong, and the PTA basis is weak. The crude oil price has retreated, but potential risks remain, and it will fluctuate around the situations in Venezuela and Iran. The PX fundamentals are weakening in the short - term, but the medium - term expectation is good. The PTA is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, but the processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term [1]. - The polyester开工率 is decreasing, the terminal procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the filament inventory is accumulating. The PF is facing inventory accumulation pressure, and the PR has smoothly reduced inventory before the Spring Festival [1][2]. - For trading strategies, go long on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the short - term under capital increase, but pay attention to PX fluctuations, polyester and PTA factory actions, and go long on dips for mid - term hedging. Also, go long on PTA and short on MEG for cross - variety trading [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][13] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures include PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][17] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [22][24] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [25][28][30] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecasts, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [35][37][38] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operation rate [43][45][53] 3.7 Detailed PF Data - Figures involve 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [67][71][74] 3.8 Detailed PR Fundamental Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [84][86][92]

农产品日报 | 2026-01-22 供应面呈上行，出栏量缓增加 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11470元/吨，较前交易日变动-80.00元/吨，幅度-0.69%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格13.06元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.17元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1590，较前交易日变动-90；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 13.40元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.26元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1930，较前交易日变动-180；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.88元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.10元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1410，较前交易日变动-20。 据农业农村部监测，1月21日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.13，比昨天下降0.07个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.02，比昨天下降0.07个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.50元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉65.93 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；羊肉63.23元/公斤，比昨天上升0.1%；鸡蛋8.20元/公斤，比昨天上升0.9%；白条鸡17.32 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Downstream MTO maintenance continues to increase, with Tianjin Bohua MTO advancing its maintenance to January 23, Xingxing shutting down for maintenance on January 12, and Ningbo Fude under maintenance from early December to late January. Port MTO maintenance drags down port demand. Supply disturbances depend on the Iranian situation, which has slowed down for now. Methanol port inventory has slightly increased this week, with Jiangsu de - stocking and Zhejiang stocking. Coal - based production maintains high - pressure operation, and southwest gas - based production is gradually restarting. Inland factories are in an inventory recovery cycle, and traditional downstream industries are in a seasonal off - season [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol spot - main futures basis in different regions, and the basis between methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong and the main futures, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][13] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding surcharges), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [24][25][30] 3. Methanol Start - up and Inventory - It includes figures on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P start - up rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China methanol start - up rate (including integrated) [32][39] 4. Regional Price Differences - Figures display price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan and Chongqing - 200 [36][43][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [47][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, Trump's easing attitude towards geopolitical risks has alleviated market concerns, and the three major US stock indexes closed higher overnight, but Japan's fiscal issues still need continuous attention. Domestically, market enthusiasm has heated up again, with the four major indexes continuing their divergent trends, and the risks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indexes are relatively high [2] Summary by Directory Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts of the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [4][5][10] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on January 21, 2026, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4116.94, up 0.08%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14255.13, up 0.70%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3295.52, up 0.54%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4723.07, up 0.09%; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index closed at 3067.18, down 0.11%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 8340.11, up 1.12%; and the CSI 1000 Index closed at 8247.68, up 0.79% [12] - The charts also include the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance, with data sources from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [5][13] Futures Market Tracking Charts - For the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the trading volume of IF was 120330 (down 9379), and the open interest was 286813 (down 6447); the trading volume of IH was 54491 (up 5763), and the open interest was 96124 (up 4576); the trading volume of IC was 171870 (down 41699), and the open interest was 330051 (down 8110); the trading volume of IM was 214526 (down 31314), and the open interest was 381688 (down 6771) [14] - Regarding the basis of stock index futures, for IF, the basis of the current - month contract was 1.13 (up 9.41), the basis of the next - month contract was - 0.27 (up 10.01), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 35.27 (up 9.61), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 91.07 (up 12.81); for IH, the basis of the current - month contract was 2.62 (down 0.33), the basis of the next - month contract was 6.42 (up 1.67), the basis of the current - quarter contract was 2.82 (up 3.87), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 30.58 (down 0.73); for IC, the basis of the current - month contract was 33.09 (up 23.09), the basis of the next - month contract was 30.89 (up 29.89), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 70.31 (up 35.49), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 182.11 (up 41.49); for IM, the basis of the current - month contract was 12.32 (up 32.87), the basis of the next - month contract was - 16.68 (up 45.27), the basis of the current - quarter contract was - 196.08 (up 40.67), and the basis of the next - quarter contract was - 357.68 (up 47.07) [41] - For the inter - period spreads of stock index futures, there are detailed data on the spreads between different contract periods of IF, IH, IC, and IM, such as the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. [46][47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [7] - Options: Sell put [7] Core View of the Report - The imposition of a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives by the White House last week has slightly affected the market's outlook on the demand for non-ferrous metals, with the copper variety also being affected but with a relatively limited decline. Given the high copper prices, weak downstream demand, and recent obvious inventory accumulation, the copper price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern, with an expected trading range of 99,500 yuan/ton to 110,000 yuan/ton [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On January 21, 2026, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 101,020 yuan/ton and closed at 101,280 yuan/ton, up 0.05% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 100,550 yuan/ton and closed at 100,260 yuan/ton, basically flat from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of 280 - 80 yuan/ton to the current-month contract, with an average discount of 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot price range was 99,820 - 100,300 yuan/ton. The market supply was clearly differentiated, with good-quality copper like Guixi and Jinchuan selling quickly due to tight supply, and the price of wet-process copper remaining relatively firm. Downstream procurement showed structural characteristics, with leading enterprises being more active in purchasing, and some end-users showing significantly increased acceptance when the copper price was below 99,500 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to remain stable today supported by the holders' willingness to hold prices [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: The situation in Greenland has taken a turn for the better. US President Trump announced an agreement framework with NATO Secretary-General Rutte on the Greenland issue. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO member states. Trump also said that the tariff measures originally scheduled to take effect on February 1 will not be implemented, leading to a sharp rise in US stocks, with all three major indices up more than 1%. The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22 local time [3] - Economic Forecast: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month, when most respondents still expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [3] - Mining: On January 21, Rio Tinto announced its Q4 2025 production results. The company's copper production in Q4 2025 was 240,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%; the annual production in 2025 was 883,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%, exceeding the upper limit of the revised guidance target (860,000 - 875,000 tons). This growth was mainly due to the successful production increase at the Oyu Tolgoi project, where the underground mine development project has been fully completed. On January 20, the Democratic Republic of the Congo announced that it has submitted a list of targeted mineral projects, including manganese, copper-cobalt, gold, and lithium projects, to the US for investment [4] - Smelting and Imports: On January 20, the spot price of LME copper showed a significant premium over the forward futures price, with the "Tom/next" spread reaching the highest level since the historical supply shortage in 2021. The spread once soared to a $100 premium, which usually indicates a surge in spot demand. This fluctuation has triggered a new round of shocks in the LME copper market. LME data shows that as of last Friday, the long positions held by three independent entities accounted for at least 30% of the January open contracts. If held to maturity, these positions will require the delivery of more than 130,000 tons of copper, exceeding the total inventory available for immediate withdrawal in the LME warehousing system [5] - Consumption: The copper price has been fluctuating in a narrow range. As the end of the month approaches, the downstream consumption boost is limited. However, due to some processing enterprises' rush to export, the market demand is relatively stable. But since the overall orders of the downstream market this week have been mediocre, downstream enterprises have basically maintained a strategy of purchasing on a just-in-time basis when the price is low [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 8,875 tons to 159,400 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by -2,612 tons to 145,581 tons. On January 21, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 329,400 tons, a change of 8,500 tons from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have cooled down, causing precious metals to rise and then fall. The market risk sentiment has converged, but the trading focus remains on geopolitical factors. The demand logic for gold investment remains unchanged, and the gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. Silver is expected to maintain a volatile pattern due to the slight cooling of risk sentiment [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: The Greenland crisis has taken a turn. US President Trump announced an agreement framework on the Greenland issue with NATO Secretary-General Lute. If implemented, it will benefit the US and all NATO members. Trump will not implement the originally scheduled tariff measures on February 1st. Affected by this news, US stocks rose sharply, with all three major indexes rising more than 1%. The EU leaders' emergency summit will be held as planned on the evening of January 22nd local time [1]. - Economic outlook: Most economists expect the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged this quarter and may remain on hold until Fed Chairman Powell's term ends in May. This view has shifted significantly from last month when most respondents expected at least one rate cut before March. However, most economists still expect at least two rate cuts later this year [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1063.00 yuan/gram, closed at 1092.30 yuan/gram, a change of 3.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 1097.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1091.80 yuan/gram, a 0.05% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. - On January 21, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 23,660.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 23,131.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of 0.30% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 870,541 lots, and the open interest was 301,919 lots. In the overnight session, it opened at 23,037 yuan/kilogram and closed at 22,938 yuan/kilogram, an 0.83% decline from the afternoon closing price [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On January 21, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.239%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.661%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the long positions changed by 14,122 lots compared to the previous day, and the short positions changed by 6,877 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts on the previous trading day was 546,827 lots, a change of 93.32% from the previous trading day [4]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long positions changed by -4,635 lots, and the short positions changed by -3,634 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 1,948,125 lots, a change of 23.03% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,081.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 16,222 tons, an increase of 149 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On January 21, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -6.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -709.99 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 47.22, a change of 2.72% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 49.36, a change of -1.58% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamentals - On January 21, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 95,478 kilograms, a change of 108.84% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 422,976 kilograms, a change of -1.38% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 60 kilograms [7]. Strategy - Gold: The gold price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1070 yuan/gram - 1150 yuan/gram [8]. - Silver: The silver price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 22,700 yuan/kilogram - 23,700 yuan/kilogram [8][9]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9]. - Options: Hold off [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Core Viewpoints - For soybeans, the short - term price of low - protein soybeans has limited downside, while the upside of high - protein varieties will be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand recovery and policy trends [2] - For peanuts, the price is expected to remain stable in the short term, and the pre - Spring Festival downstream stocking trends need to be observed [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4312.00 yuan/ton, down 26.00 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 128, up 26 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market Information**: High - protein soybean meal prices in Northeast China were stable, while low - protein varieties saw some holders lower prices. Spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied, with 39% protein medium - grain tower - loaded prices around 2.20 - 2.22 yuan/jin and 41% protein around 2.30 - 2.36 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Trends**: The price of the main soybean futures contract rebounded after a decline. Southern soybean - producing areas had a slightly stronger price trend, with tightening remaining stocks at the grass - roots level. The sales area prices were stable, and pre - holiday stocking had limited price support. State - reserve purchases were ending, and the two - way trading mechanism pressured low - protein soybean prices and curbed the bullish sentiment of high - protein varieties. The downstream and producing area prices were inverted, and holiday stocking had begun [2] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7946.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan/ton (+0.51%) from the previous day. The average peanut spot price was 8018.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 946.00, up 40.00 (+4.42%) from the previous day [3] - **Market Information**: The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 8018 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton. Prices varied in different regions, and the average contract purchase price of oil - processing peanuts by oil mills was 7350 yuan/ton, with the Shandong average at 7263 yuan/ton and stable. Oil mills' quotes ranged from 6800 - 7900 yuan/ton [3] - **Market Trends**: The main peanut futures contract oscillated slightly upward. Snowy weather affected logistics, and farmers and traders were reluctant to sell, leading to a slight price increase in some producing areas, but the actual sales pace was slow. Food processing enterprises restocked as needed, and oil mills' purchase prices were stable, with some factories nearing the end of procurement. Inventory digestion was slower than in previous years [3][4]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-22 去美元化重启，关注格陵兰危机 市场分析 有色板块驱动转缓。从宏观角度，1、"232"调查落地，特朗普宣布暂时不对关键矿产进口加征新关税，同时表示 正在构想一种建立"价格底线"的机制，旨在促进美国盟友阵营内的供应链发展；当地时间1月17日，美总统特朗普 发文称，将对8个反对其收购格陵兰岛的欧洲国家加征10%的关税。自2026年6月1日起，加征关税的税率将提高至 25%。他表示，这一关税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。当地时间20日，欧洲议会 宣布冻结对去年7月与美国达成的贸易协议的批准程序。这被视为欧盟对美国总统特朗普最新施压举措作出的首次 回应。特朗普21日表示，不会以武力夺取格陵兰岛。2、美联储主席候选人风波略降温，在对美联储主席鲍威尔提 起刑事调查后，多方密集发声支持美联储独立性，特朗普也表态"没有撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的计划"。鲍威尔计 划周三（1月21日）亲自出席最高法院针对美联储理事Cook的听证会。贝森特还称，特朗普最早下周公布新美联储 主席。从事件的角度，需要关注保证金和流动性市场带来的变量。根据芝商所1月12日发布的通知，将改变黄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price was adjusted in the first half of February, and the pre - holiday driving force is expected to be weak. Maersk's WEEK6 quotation was unexpectedly lowered, and the valuation of the delivery settlement price of the 02 contract was revised down. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for products such as photovoltaic may disrupt the off - season attributes of the 04 contract, and the volatility of the 04 contract is expected to increase in the near term. The attempt of Maersk to resume sailing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal will disrupt the expectations of more distant contracts. The 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 4 - month contract is driven by a bearish trend [1][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of January 21, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 60,286.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 28,032.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1707.20, 1129.70, 1378.00, 1486.10, 1074.70, and 1326.70 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route showed different prices for different time periods. For example, Maersk's WEEK5 price was 1520/2440, and WEEK6 was 1265/2010. The spot price has loosened, with MSC's price in the second half of January revised down to 2640 US dollars/FEU, and Maersk's WEEK6 Shanghai - Rotterdam quote at 2000 - 2100 US dollars/FEU [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU were delivered in 2025. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided. In general, the delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in January was 342,200 TEU, 273,700 TEU in February, and 289,700 TEU in March. There were 2 TBNs and 8 blank sailings in February and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - CMA CGM has decided to divert ships on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal due to the complex and uncertain international situation [2]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cargo volume in December and January was at a relatively high level within the year. The cancellation of the VAT export tax refund policy for photovoltaic products may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe can increase significantly in February and March and whether the actual freight rates will be firmer than in normal years [4][5].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-22 供应持续收缩，成交氛围寡淡 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-21，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8730元/吨，最后收于8780元/吨，较前一日结算变化（45） 元/吨，变化（0.52）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓223687手，2026-01-20仓单总数为11955手，较前一日变化 384手。 供应端:本周，新疆某大厂传来减产消息，1月预计排产有明显下降，对工业硅价格产生利好推动。如果减产有效， 工业硅供给端收缩将成效显著，库存将由累库向去库转移。 策略 工业硅价格预计将维持区间震荡，供需双减的情况下叠加煤炭价格与光伏产业链价格上涨传导效果，价格支撑明 显。上行高度取决于下游需求恢复和库存去化进度，下行空间则受成本支撑和减产预期限制。 单边：短期区间操作 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 ...