农产品日报 | 2025-11-27 需求提振不足，猪价延续震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11540元/吨，较前交易日变动+125.00元/吨，幅度+1.10%。现货方面，河南地 区外三元生猪价格11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.01元/公斤，现货基差 LH01-200，较前交易日变动-135；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 11.34元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.11元/公斤，现货基差LH01-200，较前交易日变动-235；四 川地区外三元生猪价格11.57元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01+30，较前交易日变动-125。 据农业农村部监测，11月26日"农产品批发价格200指数"为126.14，比昨天上升0.20个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为128.36，比昨天上升0.23个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.87元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；牛肉66.02 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.3%；羊肉63.20元/公斤，比昨天上升1.0%；鸡蛋7.27元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%；白条鸡17.35 元/公斤，比昨天下降1.1%。 市 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, along with differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and increased global trade uncertainties, the inflow of foreign capital is uncertain. In the short term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale is 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 trillion yuan increase and a 0.15% growth rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.20%, down 0.20% or - 2.38%; Manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, down 0.80% or - 1.61% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.58, down 0.23 or - 0.23%; The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 7.0775, down 0.017 or - 0.24%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; DR007 is 1.47, up 0.02 or + 1.40%; R007 is 1.51, down 0.02 or - 1.24%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with no change in value and a - 0.02% change rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.10, up 0.01 or - 0.02% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 26, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.37 yuan, 105.74 yuan, 107.85 yuan, and 114.29 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.05%, - 0.22%, - 0.36%, and - 0.86% [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.027 yuan, 0.075 yuan, - 0.109 yuan, and 0.131 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation**: From January to October 2025, fiscal revenue showed a mild recovery, with general public budget revenue increasing by 0.8% year - on - year. Tax revenue improved for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragged down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, government bond issuance remained strong, and the financing demand of enterprises and residents was weak. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 26, 2025, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.453%, 1.507%, and 1.519% respectively, and the repurchase rates have rebounded recently [2]. 4. Spread Overview The report provides multiple spread analysis charts, including the inter - term spread trends of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [29][36][39]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [38][42][50]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are provided on the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [52][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [59][60]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures Charts are presented on the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [66][73]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase rate falls and the treasury bond futures price oscillates, the 2603 strategy is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-27 市场关注铜业大会 加工费谈判或仍显艰难 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-11-26，沪铜主力合约开于 86750元/吨，收于 86590元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.01%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 87,200元/吨，收于 87,090 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.46%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2512合约报价为贴水10元/吨至升水170元/吨，均价升水80元/吨，与昨日 持平；现货价格区间为86510~86800元/吨。隔夜沪铜一度突破87000元/吨后回落，早盘震荡上行，最终收于86670 元/吨。当月进口亏损收窄至约800元/吨，跨月价差为C结构30~60元/吨。市场采购情绪略有回升，并逐步转向下月 发票交易，部分货源成交价被压至贴水。平水铜品牌如铁峰、中金等早间报升水10-20元/吨，随后下月票货源出现 贴水10元至平水报价。JCC因供应紧张成交价维持在升水80元/吨以上，鲁方铜成交在升水50-60元/吨，好铜中仅金 川大板流通，当月票报升水180元/吨。预计今日铜价重心维持在86500元/吨附近，下游 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-11-27 上期所金银持仓与成交量变化情况： 2025-11-26，Au2602合约上，多头较前一日变化7552手，空头则是变化2687手。沪金合约上个交易日总成交量为 453331手，较前一交易日变化7.60%。在沪银方面，在Ag2602合约上，多头变动14304手，空头变动9941手。白银 合约上个交易日总成交量2051420手，较前一交易日变化15.48%。 贵金属ETF持仓跟踪： 贵金属ETF方面，昨日黄金ETF持仓为1,040.86吨，较前一交易日持平。白银ETF持仓为15,582吨，较前一交易日增 加70吨。 褐皮书揭示美国经济前景基本维稳 市场分析 美联储发布褐皮书显示，根据美联储12个辖区中的大部分报告，自上次报告以来，经济活动基本持平；不过有2个 辖区指出经济小幅下滑，1个辖区报告经济小幅增长；整体看前景基本未变，部分人士指出未来几个月经济活动放 缓的风险加大。就业市场看，美国上周初请失业金人数减少6000人至21.6万人，为4月中旬以来新低，低于预期值 22.5万人。此前一周的续申请失业金人数小幅上升至196万人。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-11-26，沪金主 ...

原油日报 | 2025-11-27 油价维持震荡，市场仍在等待俄乌和谈进展 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨70美分，收于每桶58.65美元，涨幅为1.21%； 1月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨65美分，收于每桶63.13美元，涨幅为1.04%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.79%， 报446元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 EIA天然气报告：截至11月21日当周，美国天然气库存总量为39350亿立方英尺，较此前一周减少110亿立方英 尺，较去年同期减少320亿立方英尺，同时较5年均值高1600亿立方英尺。美国至11月28日当周石油钻井总数 407 口，前值419口。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 英国财政大臣里夫斯表示将把燃油税上调的冻结期延长至2026年9月。同时，英国政府表示，将允许在现有油 田附近开展新的油气生产活动，不会颁发新的许可证以勘探新的油气田，新的油气价格机制税率将为35%，新的石 油和天然气价格机制将取代能源利润税，该税预计将于2030年4月或更早结束。（来源：Bloomberg） 4、 高盛集团石油研究主管表示，如果乌克兰和 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a daily overview of the stock index options market, including option trading volume, PCR (Put-Call Ratio), and VIX (Volatility Index), providing data on various types of stock index options. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Option Trading Volume - On November 25, 2025, the trading volumes of different stock index options were as follows: Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 1012700 contracts; CSI 300 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1325100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF option (Shanghai market) was 1723500 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF option was 202000 contracts; ChiNext ETF option was 2947000 contracts; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 stock index option was 23700 contracts; CSI 300 stock index option was 96100 contracts; and CSI 1000 option was 227100 contracts [1]. - The detailed trading volumes of call and put options and total trading volumes of different stock index options are shown in Table 1. For example, the call trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was 493100 contracts, the put trading volume was 434800 contracts, and the total trading volume was 928000 contracts [20]. Option PCR - The PCR data of different stock index options are as follows: The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was reported at 1.00, with a month-on-month change of -0.33; the position PCR was reported at 0.80, with a month-on-month change of +0.04. Similar data are provided for other options [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX data of different stock index options are as follows: The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF option was reported at 16.13%, with a month-on-month change of -0.54%. Similar data are provided for other options [3][49].

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-26 油价大幅下跌，成本端支撑转弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6762元/吨（-31），PP主力合约收盘价为6317元/吨（-55），LL华北现货为6800 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6900元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6360元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为38元/吨（+31），LL 华东基差为138元/吨（+31）， PP华东基差为43元/吨（+35）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为82.7%（-0.4%），PP开工率为78.3%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为296.4元/吨（-54.1），PP油制生产利润为-463.6元/吨（-54.1），PDH制PP生产利 润为-414.4元/吨（-21.4）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-11.1元/吨（+10.3），PP进口利润为-231.8元/吨（-10.1），PP出口利润为2.8美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为49.9%（-0.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.9%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（+0.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The current apple futures price has slightly increased, but the warehouse - based trading in the production areas is generally weak. The new - season late Fuji apple's storage volume is more than 10% lower than last year, and the demand side is under pressure. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer [1][2][3] - Red dates: The red date futures price fluctuated and closed down. The acquisition progress and prices vary among different production areas. The supply in the sales areas is limited or sufficient, and the new - product prices vary greatly. The market is in a critical transition period, with high inventory pressure and pessimistic future expectations. The future focus will be on the actual consumption situation [5][6][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract was 9,491 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan over - 70 semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract was 9,175 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton or 0.54% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The in - warehouse trading of late Fuji is slow, and the overall shipment is average. The outbound speed in the western production areas has slowed down slightly, while the Shandong production area has sporadic outbound shipments, mainly through foreign trade channels. After a round of restocking, the market atmosphere in the production areas has become dull due to slow sales [2] Red dates - The acquisition progress of grey jujubes in Xinjiang is about 50%, and the transfer volume of goods rights is about 30% of the total output. The prices in the production areas have dropped slightly. The acquisition progress varies by region. The sales areas have limited or sufficient supply, and the new - product prices vary due to quality and cost [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The futures price of apples rose slightly yesterday. The in - warehouse trading in the production areas was generally weak. The new - season late Fuji's storage work was basically completed last week, with the storage volume more than 10% lower than last year. The consumer demand is mainly on - demand procurement, and the sales space is squeezed by citrus [3] Red dates - The futures price of red dates fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The acquisition progress and prices vary among production areas, and the enterprise acquisition enthusiasm is average. The new - product prices in the sales areas vary greatly, and the market is in a critical period of transition. The inventory pressure is high, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated [8] Group 6: Strategies Apple - Be neutral to bullish. The current expectations of storage volume and structure have been reflected in the price. The follow - up should focus on terminal consumption recovery, storage structure differentiation, and pre - holiday merchant inventory transfer, and be cautious when chasing high prices [4] Red dates - Be neutral. If the terminal market can accept and digest the current high - priced new - season spot in the production areas, it will drive the futures price to return to the new - season spot price; otherwise, the new - season spot price may continue to fall. The near - month contract may still have some room to fall [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Driven by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. There are also differences in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between stable - growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a 0.20% month - on - month and year - on - year increase, while China's PPI (monthly) had a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 2.10% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, with a 0.64 - trillion - yuan increase (0.15%) month - on - month. M2 year - on - year was 8.20%, down 0.20% (- 2.38%) month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.80% (- 1.61%) month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.81, down 0.39 (- 0.39%) day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.0944, down 0.012 (- 0.16%) day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.43, down 0.01 (- 0.97%) day - on - day. DR007 was 1.45, down 0.02 (- 1.10%) day - on - day. R007 was 1.51, down 0.02 (- 1.24%) day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.01 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 (+ 0.44%) day - on - day [10]. 2. Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - **Macro Policy**: On October 27, the central bank restarted open - market Treasury bond trading operations. On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached three consensuses. The State Council Tariff Commission announced to continue suspending the 24% additional tariff on US goods for one year, while retaining the 10% tariff [1]. - **Inflation**: In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Market Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 25, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.42 yuan, 105.98 yuan, 108.22 yuan, and 115.16 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of 0.01%, 0.00%, - 0.08%, and - 0.33% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.056 yuan, - 0.066 yuan, - 0.088 yuan, and - 0.025 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Money Market Funding Situation - **Fiscal Situation (January - October 2025)**: General public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with tax revenue improving for eight consecutive months, but non - tax revenue dragging down the overall growth rate. General public budget expenditure increased by only 2% year - on - year, slowing down for three consecutive months, mainly due to the lack of follow - up force from the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first half of the year and the weakening of infrastructure expenditures [2]. - **Financial Situation**: At the end of October, social financing and credit expanded at a low level, with strong government bond issuance and weak corporate and household financing demand. M1 declined, and the M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating weak business vitality and a return from current to time deposits [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On November 25, 2025, the central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.316%, 1.433%, 1.540%, and 1.520% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Situation - **Inter - period Spreads of Treasury Bond Futures**: The report mentions various inter - period spreads of Treasury bond futures, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, etc. [29][33] - **Implied Yields and Basis Spreads**: It provides information on the implied yields and basis spreads of different - term Treasury bond futures (2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year) [36][48][55][62]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied interest rate of the two - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, as well as the relationship between the TS main contract's IRR and the funding rate [36][37]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: It presents the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and IRR**: The relationship between the implied interest rate of the five - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TF main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [48]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract are shown [52]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The report shows the relationship between the implied yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the T main contract's IRR and the funding rate [55]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract are presented [57]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and IRR**: The relationship between the implied yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures main contract and the Treasury bond yield, and the relationship between the TL main contract's IRR and the funding rate are provided [62][65]. - **Basis Spread Trends**: The three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract are shown [68]. Strategies - **Single - sided Strategy**: With the decline in repurchase rates, Treasury bond futures prices fluctuate [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline in basis spreads [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and seeing [2] Core View - The external market remains firm, and the short - term contradictions in the market are limited. The high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have shown a marginal tightening trend, but the sustainability is limited. The downstream chemical demand is suppressed by cost increases, and the supply in the Middle East and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia are expected to increase. In the medium term, the overall oversupply pattern of LPG has not reversed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is still insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Analysis - On November 25, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4330 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 4010 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4250 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4170 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4420 - 4790 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4350 - 4400 yuan/ton; South China market, 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of December 2025, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 569 dollars/ton and 559 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4437 yuan/ton for propane (down 1 yuan/ton) and 4359 yuan/ton for butane (down 1 yuan/ton). In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane were 561 dollars/ton and 551 dollars/ton respectively, remaining stable, equivalent to 4374 yuan/ton for propane (down 2 yuan/ton) and 4296 yuan/ton for butane (down 2 yuan/ton) [1] - The external market continues to fluctuate strongly, and the high premium raises the arrival cost, supporting the domestic spot and futures. Recently, the LPG fundamentals have tightened marginally, but the sustainability is limited due to the suppression of downstream chemical demand by cost increases. The supply in the Middle East may increase after the refinery maintenance, and the arrival volume of US goods in Asia is expected to increase in December. In the medium term, the oversupply pattern of LPG has not changed, and the upward driving force of the LPG market is insufficient. The futures may fluctuate in the short term [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and seeing [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2]