Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key themes for the upcoming "Fifteen Five" period, building on the achievements of the "Fourteen Five" period [3][4][5] - The "Fifteen Five" period is characterized by a focus on modernizing the industrial system, enhancing technological independence, and fostering new productive forces [6][7] - The report outlines twelve specific goals for the "Fifteen Five" period, prioritizing the construction of a modern industrial system and the promotion of high-level technological self-reliance [7][8] Summary by Sections Achievements of the "Fourteen Five" Period - The "Fourteen Five" period is recognized for significant achievements in economic recovery and high-quality development, laying a solid foundation for future growth [3][4] - The report highlights the advantages of the socialist system in China and the effective leadership of the central government in navigating complex challenges [4] Goals for the "Fifteen Five" Period - The main goals include accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system, enhancing technological self-reliance, and expanding high-level openness [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for a qualitative improvement in economic performance and a reasonable growth rate, aiming for decisive progress in modernization by 2035 [6] Economic Policy Direction - The report indicates a shift from merely pursuing economic growth to focusing on quality, efficiency, and innovation as the main drivers of development [12] - It stresses the importance of balancing multiple objectives, including growth stabilization, structural adjustment, and risk prevention [12][11] Market Implications - The report suggests that the focus on institutional innovation and high-quality development will provide clearer long-term policy expectations for the market [13] - It anticipates that sectors such as high-end manufacturing, green energy, and the digital economy will benefit from supportive policies and financial resources [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [29]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic residents' travel increased by 18.0% year-on-year, with travel expenditures rising by 11.5%. Despite significant growth in overall travel, the per capita consumption growth is lagging [18][29]. - The report suggests focusing on stable sectors such as scenic spots and dining, while also highlighting the need for differentiation and high-end strategies in the hotel sector due to competitive pressures [29]. - The report indicates that 37 companies in the industry achieved positive returns, with the top five performers being Dalian Shengya, Changbai Mountain, China High-Tech, Fangzhi Technology, and ST Dongshi, showing increases of 48.16%, 19.93%, 19.07%, 18.11%, and 11.93% respectively [12][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC consumer services industry index rose by 1.12% from October 10 to October 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 3.31 percentage points [7]. - The tourism and hotel sectors showed signs of recovery after previous declines, with the tourism leisure sector increasing by 1.77% and hotel dining by 1.89% during the same period [8][12]. Industry News - In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic travel reached 4.998 billion trips, an increase of 761 million trips compared to the previous year [18]. - The adjustment of the Hainan duty-free policy includes an expansion of duty-free categories and allows island residents to purchase duty-free items [20]. - The hotel industry continues to experience structural recovery, with 299 new hotels opening in September 2025, although asset liquidity remains under pressure [23]. Company Announcements - Notable companies to watch include Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, and Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in leisure travel [30]. - The report also highlights the potential benefits for the education and human resources service sectors due to anticipated policy support [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [51]. Core Insights - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales exceeded 11 million units, with a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [47][48]. - The automotive industry has shown strong growth, with September production reaching 3.276 million units, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, and sales at 3.226 million units, up 14.9% year-on-year [47][48]. - The NEV sales penetration rate reached 46.1%, indicating robust demand and market acceptance [47][48]. Industry Data Tracking - In September, China's automotive production was 3.276 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 16.4% and a year-on-year increase of 17.1% [19][22]. - Automotive sales in September were 3.226 million units, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 12.9% and a year-on-year increase of 14.9% [19][22]. - Exports for the first nine months reached 4.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with NEV exports alone growing by 89.4% to 1.758 million units [47][48]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting opinions on the mandatory national standard revision plan for vehicle factory certificates, aiming to enhance product safety and information transparency [34]. - The China Passenger Car Association reported that the cumulative production of power and other batteries reached 1,122 GWh in the first nine months, a year-on-year increase of 44% [34]. - NIO's internal meeting emphasized the necessity of achieving profitability in Q4 2025, focusing on marketing, supply chain stability, and timely delivery of high-quality software [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies enhancing brand competitiveness through smart technology, such as BYD (002594) and Seres (601127) [47][48]. - It also highlights the potential of the smart driving industry chain, recommending companies like Fuyao Glass (600660) and Joyson Electronics (600699) [47][48]. - Additionally, it points to Yutong Bus (600066) as a beneficiary of the "old-for-new" policy in the new energy bus sector [47][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium battery industry chain [1] Core Views - In Q3 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments increased by over 60% year-on-year, with total shipments for the first three quarters exceeding 30% of last year's total [8][44] - The domestic energy storage cell supply is tight, with leading battery companies operating at full capacity, and this supply-demand imbalance is expected to continue until Q1 2026 [8][49] - The new energy vehicle market is in a traditional peak season, particularly with rapid growth in sales of new energy commercial vehicles, sustaining overall demand for lithium batteries [8][49] - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries, with significant breakthroughs in key technologies recently achieved [8][49] - It suggests focusing on leading companies with technological and cost advantages across the industry chain, particularly those involved in solid-state battery core processes and materials [8][49] Summary by Sections Market Review - As of October 23, 2025, the lithium battery index has decreased by 9.36% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.17 percentage points [15] - Year-to-date, the lithium battery index has increased by 49.03%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 31.97 percentage points [15] Price Changes in the Lithium Battery Industry Chain - As of October 23, 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 74,800 CNY/ton, up 2.61% in the last two weeks [29] - The price of lithium hydroxide (LiOH 56.5%) is 72,200 CNY/ton, increasing by 0.84% [29] - The price of lithium iron phosphate has decreased by 2.62% to 33,400 CNY/ton, while NCM523, NCM622, and NCM811 have seen increases of 16.26%, 13.20%, and 8.36% respectively [32] - The price of electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged by 38.10% to 87,000 CNY/ton [35] - The average price of wet separators has risen by 5.80% to 0.73 CNY/sqm [40] Industry News - The report notes that in Q3 2025, China's energy storage battery shipments reached 165 GWh, a 65% increase year-on-year, with total shipments for the first three quarters reaching 430 GWh [44] - The report also highlights that from January to September 2025, China's lithium battery exports increased by 19.14% in quantity and 26.75% in value [44] - The global battery production in September 2025 was 216.7 GWh, a 50.8% year-on-year increase [44] Company Announcements - The report identifies key companies to watch, including CATL (300750), EVE Energy (300014), and others, based on their strong performance and market positioning [51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in net profit for Q3, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 140.16% [9]. - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 450.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.17% [9]. - The company is a leading player in the power battery sector, with a 66.98% year-on-year increase in battery shipments [9]. - The company has optimized its customer structure, which is expected to enhance profitability [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 168.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.85% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.49% [9]. - The net profit for Q3 was 12.11 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 140.16% [9]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.95%, down 1.43 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 6.61%, down 3.01 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Product and Market Development - The company has successfully launched large cylindrical batteries and is the first supplier for BMW's next-generation electric vehicle [9]. - The company’s energy storage battery shipments reached 48.41 GWh in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 35.51% [9]. - The company is expected to release a solid-state battery with an energy density of 350 Wh/kg by 2026 [9]. Future Outlook - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with projected EPS of 2.16 yuan and 3.47 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 36 times and 23 times [9][11]. - The company is positioned as a platform enterprise in power, energy storage, and consumer lithium batteries, with anticipated rapid profit growth due to product and customer structure optimization [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [3][24]. Core Insights - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, declining by 3.41% from October 10 to October 23, 2025, which is approximately 1.22 percentage points lower than the index [10][24]. - Most sub-sectors within the industry recorded negative returns during the same period, with offline pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine showing positive growth of 4.19% and 1.55%, respectively, while medical R&D outsourcing and medical equipment sectors faced declines of 8.86% and 7.66% [13][24]. - Approximately 56% of stocks in the industry reported positive returns, with notable performers including ZhenDe Medical, which saw a weekly increase of 43.97% [14][16]. - The overall industry valuation has decreased, with the SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology index's PE (TTM) at approximately 53.10 times, and a relative PE to the CSI 300 of 3.90 times as of October 23, 2025 [17][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The SW pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a decline of 3.41% from October 10 to October 23, 2025 [10]. - Most sub-sectors recorded negative returns, with offline pharmacies and traditional Chinese medicine performing better than others [13]. - About 56% of stocks in the industry achieved positive returns during this period [14]. 2. Industry News - On October 21, the Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of funds for enhancing medical services and capacity building, aimed at supporting various healthcare initiatives [18][22]. 3. Company Announcements - Junshi Biosciences disclosed that its wholly-owned subsidiary passed an FDA inspection, indicating compliance with current Good Manufacturing Practices [23]. 4. Industry Outlook - The report suggests focusing on sectors with potential for exceeding expectations in the upcoming quarterly reports, including medical devices, pharmaceutical commerce, aesthetic medicine, scientific services, and innovative drugs [24][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry has shown signs of recovery with an increase in average delivery prices, attributed to regulatory measures against excessive competition [2][3]. - The total express delivery volume from January to September 2025 reached 1,450.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while the industry revenue for the same period was 10,857.4 billion yuan, up 8.9% year-on-year [2]. - The average revenue per delivery in September was 7.55 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.91% but a month-on-month increase of 0.18 yuan, indicating a potential price recovery trend [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In September 2025, the express delivery volume was 168.8 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the revenue was 1,273.7 billion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [2]. - The average delivery price has seen a slight recovery due to the "anti-involution" measures, with various regions announcing price increases ranging from 0.1 to 0.4 yuan per delivery [3]. Market Dynamics - Major express delivery companies such as SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have reported varying growth rates in delivery volumes, with SF Express showing a significant year-on-year increase of 31.81% in September [4]. - The market concentration index (CR8) for the express delivery sector remained stable at 86.9, with slight fluctuations in market shares among leading companies [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the ongoing price increases and regulatory scrutiny will enhance profit margins for express delivery companies, with a focus on companies like YTO Express, Shentong Express, SF Holdings, and Yunda [5]. - The anticipated price recovery and reduced competition for market share are expected to release profit elasticity for express delivery companies [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the communication industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [2][46]. Core Viewpoints - The major telecommunications operators in China reported a slight decline in revenue growth for the first three quarters of 2025, but overall net profit continues to show good growth. As the basic market approaches saturation, digital and innovative businesses are becoming new growth engines for operators, with government and enterprise digitalization becoming key pillars of growth. The communication industry is expected to experience a period of technological iteration and policy dividends, with new growth drivers from AI, quantum communication, and low-altitude economy [3][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Communication Industry Market Review - The communication sector index fell by 1.88% over the past two weeks (10/10-10/23), outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.31 percentage points. Year-to-date, the sector has risen by 60.32%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 43.26 percentage points [4][11]. 2. Industry News - The International Telecommunication Union confirmed that the 2027 World Radiocommunication Conference will be held in Shanghai, China [16]. - Omdia predicts that the number of global 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) users will reach 150 million by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23% [19]. - IDC reported that the AI IaaS market in China grew by 122.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, reaching a market size of 19.87 billion yuan [20]. 3. Company Announcements - Yiyuan Communication reported a net profit growth of 105.65% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 17.877 billion yuan [24]. - China Telecom's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 grew by 5%, with total revenue of 394.3 billion yuan [27]. 4. Industry Data Updates - As of August 2025, the mobile phone user base reached approximately 1.819 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.67% [28]. - The total number of 5G base stations reached 4.646 million by August 2025, accounting for 36.3% of all mobile base stations [37]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that align with the themes of "technology commercialization, policy catalysis, and earnings certainty," highlighting companies such as China Mobile, China Telecom, and FiberHome Communication [41][42].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the semiconductor industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [48]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry index has seen a cumulative decline of 9.48% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.29 percentage points. However, since the beginning of 2025, the semiconductor index has risen by 44.73%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 27.66 percentage points [7][15]. - The report highlights a significant price increase in storage products driven by the explosion of AI applications, leading to a surge in demand for high-performance storage chips used in AI servers and data centers. Major companies like Micron and Samsung have raised prices by 20%-30% and 15%-30% respectively [41][25]. Industry News and Company Dynamics - The report notes that the global semiconductor equipment investment reached $33.07 billion in Q2 2025, a 24% year-on-year increase [18]. - The Chinese smartphone market saw a 3% decline in Q3 2025, with Vivo regaining the top position in shipments [22]. - The report mentions that the utilization rate of wafer foundries in the second half of 2025 is better than expected due to low inventory levels among chip design companies and strong AI demand [23]. - The report anticipates a "super cycle" in the storage chip market, with price increases expected to continue until 2026, driven by high demand from data centers and smart devices [25]. Semiconductor Industry Data Updates - Global smartphone shipments reached 323 million units in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.09% [34]. - In September 2025, domestic new energy vehicle sales reached 1.604 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24.6% [36]. - Global semiconductor sales in August 2025 amounted to $64.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.7% [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on segments benefiting from the price increases in storage products, including storage modules, niche storage, and supporting materials [41]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Northern Huachuang (002371) - Zhongwei Company (688012) - Huahai Qingke (688120) - Tuo Jing Technology (688072) [44][45].

2025 年 10 月 24 日 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 电子行业双周报（2025/10/10-2025/10/23） 行 业 OpenAI 发布 AI 浏览器，iPhone17 系列销售火热 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 电子行业 SAC 执业证书编号： 行情回顾及估值：申万电子板块近2周（10/10-10/23）累计下跌8.33%， 跑输沪深300指数6.14个百分点，在申万行业中排名第31名；板块10月 累计下跌6.33%，跑输沪深300指数5.59个百分点，在申万行业中排名第 31名；板块今年累计上涨43.80%，跑赢沪深300指数26.74个百分点，在 申万行业中排名第3名。估值方面，截至10 ...