Group 1 - The report highlights that the real estate index has shown a zigzag pattern of excess returns over the past year, characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation. The average excess return during the last six upward waves reached 13%, lasting an average of 18 days [2][28][29] - It is suggested that if the upcoming political bureau meeting or related policies signal more aggressive real estate stimulus, the real estate index may initiate a new round of upward movement. However, the long-term outlook remains dependent on the stabilization of the fundamental market conditions [2][28][29] - Key themes identified include the push for orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality development, significant investment in the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, and the high demand in the AIDC sector driven by policy [2][28][29] Group 2 - The report indicates that the domestic fiscal situation showed a slight decline in June, but land transaction recovery has led to an increase in government fund income. The overall fiscal revenue remained flat year-on-year, while tax revenue showed a positive trend [4][32] - Internationally, ongoing ceasefire negotiations in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East are being monitored, with significant political figures expressing their views on interest rate policies [4][32] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining a cautious approach in the current market environment, as the market may experience overheating and increased volatility following recent highs [4][32] Group 3 - The report on the bond market suggests that the current "triple concerns" may be alleviating, with marginal improvements in the fundamentals and policy expectations boosting market sentiment. The bond market is expected to stabilize as the central bank's supportive stance continues [10][12] - It is noted that the bond market's rapid adjustment phase may be nearing its end, with the long-end interest rates expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.8%, indicating potential value in allocations above 1.75% [10][12] - The report also highlights the need for ongoing observation of policy outcomes from the upcoming political bureau meeting and changes in funding and deposit pricing [10][12] Group 4 - The report on the construction materials sector indicates that signs of stabilization in the real estate chain are emerging, with non-traditional building materials showing higher demand. The focus is on structural optimization and growth opportunities [21][22] - Recommendations include investing in cement companies benefiting from policy-driven capacity recovery, consumer building materials with strong growth potential, and fiberglass companies anticipating significant demand increases [21][22] - The report also mentions the potential for explosive growth in the civil explosives market driven by coal mining activities in Xinjiang [21][22]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Insights - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the domestic nuclear fusion industry, with a registered capital of 11.469 billion yuan. The company aims to transition nuclear fusion technology from research to engineering applications [1] - The global investment landscape in nuclear fusion is heating up, with the US and China leading in equity financing. As of July 2025, US fusion companies have attracted approximately $6.28 billion, while Chinese companies have secured around $2.79 billion [2] - Various companies are making substantial investments in nuclear fusion technology, including New Hope Group, which has invested about 4 billion yuan since 2017, and several startups collaborating with public channels for funding [2] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Establishment - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22 in Shanghai, with significant backing from state-owned enterprises and private capital [1] - The company will focus on overall design, technology validation, and digital R&D, aiming to build a technology research platform and a capital operation platform [1] Section 2: Investment Trends - The report highlights a surge in investments in nuclear fusion, with notable contributions from both state-owned and private enterprises in China [2] - Key players in the US, such as Helion and Commonwealth Fusion Systems, have also secured significant funding, indicating a competitive landscape [2] Section 3: Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring several companies involved in the nuclear fusion supply chain, including: - Lianchuang Optoelectronics, a leading supplier of high-temperature superconducting magnets - Yongding Co., a major supplier of high-temperature superconducting strips - Guoguang Electric, which provides various components for controllable nuclear fusion devices [3]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index rose for five consecutive days, increasing by 1.46% during the week ending July 25, 2025[10] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 4.1% due to trade agreement progress between the US and Japan[10] - The Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices increased by 1.26% and 1.02%, respectively, during the same period[10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims fell to 217,000, marking a decline for the sixth consecutive week, against an expected 226,000[4] - The probability of a US recession by 2025 is estimated at 17%, down from 18% the previous week[39] - The market anticipates a 64.5% chance of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July or September, up from 52.9% a week prior[28] Commodity Prices - Gold and silver prices decreased by 0.61% and 0.55%, respectively, while WTI crude oil fell by 3.31%[11] - The market expects an increase in Venezuelan oil exports following the easing of sanctions, contributing to the decline in oil prices[10] Trade Agreements - The US reached a trade agreement with Japan, which includes a 15% tariff and a $550 billion investment from Japan[33] - The Philippines will impose a 19% tariff on US goods while opening its market to zero tariffs for US products[33] - Ongoing trade negotiations with the EU could lead to a counter-tariff on $93 billion worth of US goods if talks fail[33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the real estate chain is showing signs of stabilization, with policies since 2025 continuing a loose tone that has been in place since 2024, suggesting a gradual bottoming out of the real estate fundamentals [1][34] - Cement demand is expected to decline at a slower rate in 2025, with industry awareness of price stability and profit protection increasing, indicating a potential profit turning point [1][34] - The consumption building materials sector is seeing an increase in the proportion of existing stock, with improved second-hand housing transactions and consumption stimulus expected to accelerate demand for renovations [1][3] Group 2 - Non-traditional building materials are experiencing higher overall demand, particularly in fiberglass, where downstream demand from wind power and thermoplastics remains strong, and competition is expected to ease [2][3] - The civil explosives sector is benefiting from increased investment in mining and water conservancy, leading to sustained demand growth, with major companies accelerating mergers and acquisitions [2][3] - Traditional refractory materials are facing weak downstream demand, but leading companies are expanding into new markets, such as magnesium salt chemicals and wet metallurgy, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits [2][3] Group 3 - The investment focus for traditional chains is on structural and supply aspects, while non-traditional chains are centered on downstream growth opportunities [3][4] - In the cement sector, supply-side reforms are accelerating, with a potential reduction in actual capacity to below 180 million tons in the medium to long term [3][4] - The consumption building materials sector is witnessing a price competition trend easing, with a focus on leading companies in the consumer market [3][4] Group 4 - The fiberglass segment is highlighted as a market focus, with significant demand expected for low dielectric and low expansion electronic fabrics, particularly in communication infrastructure and semiconductor packaging [4][3] - The civil explosives market in Xinjiang is projected to grow significantly, with existing demand estimated at 67.6 million tons, potentially reaching close to one million tons by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [4][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of policy-driven demand in the photovoltaic glass sector, awaiting improvements in market conditions [4][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The significant increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by supply contraction expectations and a rapid price correction due to regulatory actions against non-compliant mining practices [1] - Copper prices have shown a mixed performance, with market sentiment supporting price increases, but demand remains weak, limiting upward momentum [2][15] - Aluminum prices have risen due to external market influences and domestic production adjustments, although concerns about future demand in the photovoltaic sector persist [3][24] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, have seen price increases driven by heightened risk aversion amid global trade uncertainties [4][30] - Tungsten prices have increased across the board, supported by resource scarcity and cautious market activity [5][63] - The rare earth sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals, with significant price increases for light and heavy rare earth elements [6][41] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have fluctuated, with a recent increase to 78,710 CNY/ton, but market demand remains weak, leading to cautious trading [2][15] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,630 CNY/ton, driven by external market trends and domestic production recovery, despite concerns in the photovoltaic sector [3][24] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 780.69 CNY/gram, up 0.83%, and silver at 9,291 CNY/kg, up 2.02%, influenced by global trade tensions [4][30] Minor Metals - Lithium: Prices for lithium carbonate have stabilized, with market sentiment remaining cautious amid steady production [41][42] - Cobalt: Prices have increased slightly, but demand remains weak, leading to limited trading activity [43][44] - Tin: Prices have risen to 34,750 USD/ton, supported by supply-side reforms and low inventory levels [53][54] - Tungsten: Prices have increased due to resource scarcity, with black tungsten averaging 186,500 CNY/ton [5][63] - Molybdenum: Prices have shown a mixed trend, with recent increases due to supply disruptions and market optimism [68][69] Rare Earths - The rare earth market is witnessing a significant recovery, with prices for light rare earths like praseodymium-neodymium oxide rising to 514,000 CNY/ton [6][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - North - Exchange convertible bonds have certain special features in terms of clause settings and transfer transactions, with relatively low overall issuance scale. In the current policy environment encouraging mergers and acquisitions, private placement convertible bonds may become an important tool for North - Exchange listed companies to introduce strategic investors and be widely used as a payment instrument for M&A. With the slowdown of new supply of public convertible bonds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, continuous attention to North - Exchange related investment opportunities is recommended [2][13]. - Considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure of convertible bonds is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds in convertible bonds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. In terms of clauses, continue to focus on the space for lower - revision games, be vigilant against call risks, and appropriately focus on short - term game opportunities of near - maturity convertible bonds. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1.转债周度专题与展望 3.1.1. 北交所转债怎么看？ - As of July 25, there were 5 convertible bond proposals on the North - Exchange. The current proposals are all private placement convertible bonds with an issuance scale within 150 million yuan. North - Exchange private placement convertible bonds usually do not have a "downward revision clause", suspend transfer 10 trading days before the end of the conversion period, have a clear 18 - month conversion restriction requirement, and a non - call period of at least 6 months [1][10]. - Taking the private placement convertible bonds of Youji Co., Ltd. as an example, it has obvious features in the initial conversion price, conditional call clause, non - downward revision clause, and put period. Other clauses are relatively conventional, with an issuance term of 6 years and a put trigger threshold of 70% [11][13]. 3.1.2. 周度回顾与市场展望 - This week, the three major stock indices fluctuated upward, with active trading and obvious rotation of hot sectors. The A - share market valuation is recovering. Measures such as large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement are expected to boost domestic demand, while export growth may decline. A weak resonance between the domestic economic fundamentals and the capital market is expected to gradually start [14][15]. - In terms of convertible bonds, considering the impact of refinancing policies, the subsequent issuance pressure is expected to be low. As the stock market recovers, the return of incremental funds drives the valuation to a relatively high historical level, and attention should be paid to the risk of valuation correction. Industries to focus on include popular themes, domestic demand - oriented sectors, central state - owned enterprises under the Chinese characteristic valuation system, and the military industry [16]. 3.2. 转债市场周度跟踪 3.2.1. 权益市场收涨，建材煤炭钢铁领涨 - This week, the major equity market indices rose. The market style was more inclined to small - cap value stocks. Among the 27 Shenwan industry indices, 27 rose and 4 fell. Building materials, coal, and steel industries led the market [19][22]. 3.2.2. 转债市场大涨，百元溢价率中位数抬升 - This week, the convertible bond market rose. The average daily trading volume increased. Most industries in the convertible bond market rose, with coal, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemical industries leading the gains. Only bank convertible bonds fell. Most individual bonds rose. In terms of price, the number of absolute low - price convertible bonds decreased, and the median price increased significantly. The weighted conversion value of the whole market increased, and the premium rate decreased [24][31][36]. 3.2.3. 不同类型转债高频跟踪 3.2.3.1. 分类估值变化 - This week, the valuations of equity - biased and balanced convertible bonds increased significantly, with a higher increase in balanced convertible bonds. The valuations of convertible bonds with a parity of 0 - 80 yuan and above 130 yuan decreased, while those of other parity convertible bonds increased. The valuations of most convertible bonds of each rating decreased, and the valuations of convertible bonds in each scale category decreased [51]. 3.2.3.2. 市场指数表现 - This week, convertible bonds of all ratings rose. Since 2023, high - rating AAA convertible bonds have shown stable performance, while low - rating convertible bonds have shown weaker anti - decline attributes and greater rebound strength. Convertible bonds of all scales rose this week [62][64]. 3.3. 转债供给与条款跟踪 3.3.1. 本周一级预案发行 - Two new convertible bonds were listed this week, and one was issued but not yet listed. The first - day closing prices of Libo Convertible Bonds and Guanghe Convertible Bonds were 129.46 yuan and 129.80 yuan respectively, with reasonable pricing. The scale of the to - be - listed Bo 25 Convertible Bonds is 2.802 billion yuan. There were 9 first - level approvals this week [69]. 3.3.2. 下修&赎回条款 - This week, 9 convertible bonds were expected to trigger downward revision, 9 announced no downward revision, 2 proposed downward revision, and 1 announced the downward - revision result. Thirteen convertible bonds were expected to trigger call, 4 announced no call, and 4 announced early call. As of the end of this week, 3 convertible bonds were still in the put declaration period, and 19 were in the company's capital reduction and settlement declaration period [73][77][79].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the long-term excess returns of the real estate index are correlated with trends in sales growth and price growth, indicating a cyclical nature in the market [2][7][10] - In the past year, the real estate index has shown a pulsing zigzag pattern characterized by short cycles, high volatility, and strong policy correlation, driven mainly by short-term stimulus policies rather than fundamental recovery [2][10][11] - The average excess return during the last six upward phases of the index reached 13%, with an average duration of 18 days, suggesting potential for new upward movements if positive signals are released from upcoming policy meetings [2][10][11] Group 2 - The report discusses the "anti-involution" theme, emphasizing the orderly exit of backward production capacity to achieve high-quality industry development, with a focus on sectors like steel, pig farming, and cement [30] - The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project, with an investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to create opportunities in related sectors such as cement, steel materials, and hydropower equipment [33] - The AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) sector is projected to experience high growth driven by policy and demand resonance, with a target market scale exceeding 280 billion yuan by 2028, indicating strong investment potential in AI infrastructure [37][41]

Domestic Economic Overview - In June, fiscal revenue showed a slight decline, with total revenue year-on-year remaining flat at -0.31%, compared to a previous value of 0.13%. Tax revenue increased by 1.04% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue continued to decline by -3.7% [8][9] - Government fund revenue saw a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.81% in June, compared to a previous decline of -8.15%. The land transaction revenue also rebounded, reporting a year-on-year increase of 21.89% [15][16] - The industrial production index showed a decline, with specific sectors like methanol and Shandong's independent refineries recovering, while others like pure alkali and polyester filament saw a downturn [20][21] International Conflict Tracking - The third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey, with both sides discussing humanitarian agreements and potential future meetings [24] - In the Middle East, Israel confirmed that ceasefire negotiations with Hamas have not collapsed, while Hamas officials expressed readiness to resume talks [26][27] Industry Allocation Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of the "赛点 2.0" phase, indicating that the market is experiencing overheating and increased volatility. It suggests focusing on three main investment directions: 1) Technology AI+ breakthroughs, 2) Valuation recovery in consumer stocks, and 3) Continued rise of undervalued dividends [33] - The report highlights that the core factor for investment in the consumer sector is valuation, especially in the context of low valuations, declining interest rates, and policy catalysts [33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [5] Core Viewpoints - The company is focusing on enhancing its competitive edge by leveraging its domestic and international production capabilities to seize opportunities in the pet hygiene and care products market [1][2] - The Chinese pet products market is experiencing robust growth, with a projected penetration rate of 80.2% for pet supplies by 2024, indicating a strong consumer shift towards pet care [2] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 267.35 million, 322.58 million, and 382 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17, 14, and 12 [4] Summary by Sections Company Strategy - The company is advancing a dual strategy of "overseas + domestic" and "ODM/OEM + proprietary brands" to strengthen its market position [1] - It is investing in various pet-related sectors, including cat litter, pet food, smart pet products, and veterinary vaccines, to prepare for future expansion [1] Market Analysis - The report highlights that the global production capacity for pet hygiene products is primarily concentrated in China, which provides a competitive advantage due to lower costs compared to other regions [3] - The company is actively expanding its market presence in non-US regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia to mitigate risks associated with tariffs [3] Financial Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.34 billion, 1.80 billion, and 2.18 billion yuan for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, reflecting growth rates of -11.80%, 34.41%, and 21.48% [10] - The EBITDA is expected to increase from 190.94 million yuan in 2023 to 392.38 million yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment of the bond market may be nearing its end in the short term. The central bank's supportive attitude remains beneficial to the bond market. In the long term, the continuous transformation of pricing logic and macro - narrative requires further deepening of supply - side policies and marginal changes in demand to clarify market risk preferences and the direction of the bond market [35]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock and Commodity Rise, Tightening of Funds, Bear - Steep Curve - From July 21 - 25, the bond market continued its head - wind situation. The "anti - involution" sentiment supported the strength of the equity and commodity markets, diverting funds from the bond market. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yajiang investment strengthened the broad - credit expectation, suppressing the long - end performance. In the second half of the week, the unexpected tightening of the funds led to partial redemptions and bond - selling by funds and wealth management products, causing concerns about "negative feedback." However, on Friday, with the central bank's timely support, the bond market sentiment improved [1][7]. - On a daily basis, the bond market was weak throughout the week. By July 25, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 3.5, 7.9, 6.7, and 8.4 BP respectively compared to July 18, with a steeper bear - steep curve [7]. 2. Roller - Coaster of Funds and Timely Support from the Central Bank - This week, the funds situation fluctuated, tightening in the second half. The large liquidity demand (such as MLF redemption, large - scale reverse - repurchase maturity, over - trillion - yuan certificate - of - deposit maturity, and treasury bond issuance) and the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week increased the funds demand. The overnight funds rate rose to a relatively high level since June, and the secondary prices of certificates of deposit increased slightly in the second half of the week [2][10][12]. - On July 25, the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection supported the cross - month liquidity. The weekly average of funds rates fluctuated with a relatively stable mean. The funds stratification remained at a low level, with mixed weekly average changes. The secondary yields of certificates of deposit increased across the board [12]. 3. Are the "Three Concerns" Temporarily Resolved? 3.1. From Stock - Bond to Commodity - Bond: Is the Market on "Pause"? - The recent rise in the market is mainly based on policy expectations. This week, the "commodity - bond" linkage was strengthened, with the commodity futures market rising due to infrastructure expectations and supply - side contraction expectations. However, the callback of "double - coke" and other varieties at the end of the week indicates that policy pricing may be nearing its end. The sustainability of the "commodity - bond" linkage depends on policy implementation and improvement in physical supply - demand [20][23]. - Whether policies can improve the fundamentals will be a key factor affecting the direction of risk assets. Additional policies may support the performance of risk assets [23]. 3.2. Liquidity: "Tightness" and "Stability" before Crossing the Month - The unexpected tightening of funds may be due to the central bank's net redemption in the first half of the week, the diversion of bond - market funds by the rise of the stock and commodity markets, and the increased redemption pressure in the bond market [3][24]. - With the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase injection on Friday and the approaching Politburo meeting, the central bank is likely to maintain neutral operations, and the cross - month funds may be stable but not overly loose [24]. 3.3. Institutional Behavior: Redemption Pressure Temporarily Eased - Recently, the redemption pressure has increased due to the large fluctuations in fund net values since July, the inflow of funds into the equity and commodity markets, and the deepening of the adjustment in the bond market [25]. - However, the possibility of the bond - market redemption evolving into a "negative feedback" is low. The increase in redemption pressure is mainly reflected in the significant increase in fund selling, while the scale and yield of wealth management products remain relatively stable. With the central bank's support on Friday, the bond market showed signs of stabilization [26]. 4. Future Focus of the Bond Market - Monetary policy: The central bank will maintain a supportive attitude, and there is no need to worry too much about liquidity. In the short term, the urgency for interest - rate cuts is reduced, and the downward space for the short - end is limited if the central bank's injection remains moderate [36]. - Fundamental aspects: The upward trend needs to be continuously consolidated. In the short term, focus on whether the linkage effect of the stock, bond, and commodity markets weakens, and the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [36]. - Pay attention to the policy signals from the July Politburo meeting, which is important for guiding the macro - policy adjustment [36]. 5. Next Week's Key Data to Watch - Next week, important data include Germany's and the EU's Q2 GDP, the US's July ADP employment, Q2 GDP, PCE price index, federal funds target rate, and China's July official manufacturing PMI, among others [37].