Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of global vegetable oils in 2025/2026 is expected to tighten year - on - year, which will support the upward shift of the domestic oil price range. Various factors such as weather and policies have a significant impact on the oil fundamentals, potentially leading to increased price volatility [5][71]. - For palm oil, La Nina may cause seasonal production cuts and accelerated inventory reduction, providing short - term upward opportunities. The uncertainty of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia and the implementation of the Indonesian B45/50 plan may provide long - term upward momentum. - For soybean oil, if the soybean production in North and South America declines due to weather speculation, China continues to purchase a large amount of US soybeans, and the US biofuel policy favorable to US soybean oil is implemented, the tightening of the global soybean supply - demand will help the domestic soybean oil price to be strong. Otherwise, the domestic soybean oil will face pressure. - For rapeseed oil, focus on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and whether China will relax the import control of Australian rapeseed, which will improve the current tight supply - demand pattern of the domestic rapeseed industry and be negative for rapeseed oil prices. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review - In 2025, domestic oil prices showed a pattern of large fluctuations and an increased operating range, with soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the domestic palm oil futures contract rose 288 yuan/ton (3.40%) to 8762 yuan/ton compared to January 1, the soybean oil futures contract rose 542 yuan/ton (7.02%) to 8266 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil futures contract rose 480 yuan/ton (5.38%) to 9407 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q1 2025, the three major domestic oils were in a game stage, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Palm oil was suppressed by the postponement of Indonesia's B40 policy and the recovery of Malaysian palm oil production in Q1, but was supported by low domestic inventory. Soybean oil was dragged down by the expected high yield of South American soybeans in 2024/2025 and poor US soybean export data. Rapeseed oil rose due to concerns about future supply tightening caused by the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed [9]. - In Q2, the trends of the three major domestic oils further diverged. Palm oil fell sharply due to the strong recovery of production in Malaysia and Indonesia and the increase in inventory. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a volatile trend as the supply shortage of domestic soybeans was gradually alleviated and there were both positive and negative factors in the high inventory of rapeseed oil and Sino - Canadian negotiations [9]. - In Q3, the three major domestic oils rose collectively, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed in August, which led to concerns about supply shortages. Soybean and palm oils rose in early July - late August due to favorable bio - fuel policies, but the upward trend weakened later due to factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, the smooth increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and high domestic oil inventory [10]. - In Q4, rapeseed and palm oils fell sharply and then bottomed out in a volatile manner, while soybean oil maintained a volatile trend. Palm oil was pressured by the unexpected increase in Malaysian inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy. Rapeseed oil was affected by the permission of Australian rapeseed import and ongoing Sino - Canadian negotiations. Soybean oil was supported by China's resumption of US soybean imports [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis (A) Origin Oil Supply - Demand 1. **2025/2026 Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand Expected to Tighten for Four Consecutive Years** - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global vegetable oil production in 2025/2026 is 234.395 million tons (year - on - year + 1.96%), with the lowest growth rate in nearly five years. Rapeseed oil production increased the most (2.56% year - on - year) at 35.009 million tons, followed by palm oil at 80.186 million tons (+2.42%), and soybean oil increased the least at 70.567 million tons (+1.10%) [12]. - Demand side: Bio - diesel policies in various countries have strengthened domestic consumption (228.811 million tons, year - on - year + 2.86%) and tightened exports (86.979 million tons, year - on - year - 0.44%). The increase in demand is greater than that in supply, so the global vegetable oil ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline year - on - year, and the supply - demand will continue to tighten [12]. - Uncertainties: Mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production, as well as bio - diesel policies in various countries [12]. 2. **2025/2026 Global Palm Oil Supply - Demand Tightness Improves Marginally, Focus on Production and Indonesian Bio - diesel Policy** - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil production in 2025/2026 is 80.816 million tons (year - on - year + 2.42%), with Indonesia at 47.5 million tons (year - on - year + 3.26%) and Malaysia at 19.5 million tons (year - on - year + 0.62%). However, due to factors such as aging trees, El Nino in 2026, and the nationalization of plantations in Indonesia, the medium - and long - term palm oil production in Southeast Asia is highly uncertain, and the increase may be lower than expected [16]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil domestic consumption in 2025/2026 is 77.862 million tons (year - on - year + 3.49%), exports are 45.708 million tons (year - on - year + 1.74%), and total demand is 123.57 million tons (year - on - year + 2.83%). The implementation of Indonesia's B45/B50 bio - diesel policy will increase domestic consumption and reduce exports, while Malaysia may seize Indonesia's export market [21][22]. - Inventory: In 2025, Malaysia's inventory increased rapidly in Q3 and was at a five - year high in October, while Indonesia's inventory remained low throughout the year. In the medium - and long - term, both Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to have a slight inventory reduction in 2025/2026, with Indonesia's supply - demand being more tense [26][27]. 3. **2025/2026 Global Soybean Supply - Demand at a Medium - Term Level, Focus on US Soybean Demand and Production Adjustment in North and South America** - Supply side: The USDA November report slightly lowered the 2025/2026 US soybean production to 4.253 billion bushels (115.775 million tons). Affected by the decline in production in the US and Argentina, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 421.75 million tons (year - on - year - 1.26%), but it is still the second - highest level in the past five years. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downward, and South American soybean production is at risk of reduction due to La Nina [29]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global soybean total demand in 2025/2026 is 609.51 million tons (+1.91%), with domestic consumption at 421.54 million tons (year - on - year + 2.06%) and exports at 187.97 million tons (year - on - year + 1.59%). However, the US bio - diesel policy and China's purchase demand are uncertain, which may lead to a decline in global soybean demand [33]. - Overall: The global soybean ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline slightly year - on - year, and the supply - demand will be at a medium - term level in the past five years. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [43]. 4. **2025/2026 Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand is Loose, but China's Supply - Demand is Tight due to Import Restrictions on Canadian Rapeseed** - International supply - demand: Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is 92.273 million tons (year - on - year + 7.30%), mainly due to the increase in production in major producing countries except Ukraine. Demand side: The total demand increased slightly year - on - year, with a significant decline in exports due to China's anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The global rapeseed supply - demand is significantly loose, with ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio reaching historical highs [44][45][46]. - China's supply - demand: Due to China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, the import of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply - demand has tightened. The future supply - demand situation depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and China's attitude towards Australian rapeseed imports [54][55][56]. (B) Domestic Oil Supply - Demand - Supply: In 2025, the domestic imports of soybeans and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the imports of rapeseed and palm oil decreased. The increase in soybean imports was due to concerns about supply shortages in Sino - US trade, and the decrease in palm oil imports was due to poor import profits. The import of rapeseed was restricted by the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, while rapeseed oil imports increased as it mainly depends on Russia [58]. - Demand: In 2025, the overall domestic oil demand was weak, and the consumption of soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The consumption of all three oils decreased year - on - year, with soybean oil having the smallest decline due to its cost - effectiveness [59]. - Inventory: As of the end of November, the supply - demand of domestic soybeans/soybean oil was the most relaxed, followed by palm oil, and rapeseed/rapeseed oil was the most tense [59]. - Future outlook: It is expected that the three major domestic oils will enter the de - stocking stage, with rapeseed oil having the fastest de - stocking speed, followed by soybean and palm oils. The de - stocking situation of each oil is affected by factors such as production in the origin, import profits, and policies [64][65][66]. III. Market Outlook and Strategy - Global vegetable oils: The supply - demand will continue to tighten in 2025/2026, supporting the price. Uncertainties mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production and bio - diesel policies in various countries [67]. - Palm oil: The current production forecast for Southeast Asia in 2026 is optimistic, but production may be lower than expected due to various factors. The implementation of the Indonesian B50 policy is uncertain. The supply - demand of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to be strong, but the inventory will decline [68]. - Soybean oil: The global soybean supply will decline year - on - year in 2025/2026, while the demand will increase. The supply - demand will be at a medium - term level. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [69]. - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed has led to a divergence in the supply - demand of rapeseed at home and abroad. The international supply - demand is loose, while China's is tight. The future supply - demand situation in China depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and the import policy of Australian rapeseed [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the 2024 - 25 season, due to reduced apple storage and declining quality, the price of high - quality apples was significantly higher, and the overall price increased compared to the previous year. In the 2025 - 26 season, apples are generally smaller and of lower quality, with further reduced storage volume. The apple price in the new season may show significant differentiation [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Apple Market Review - The 2025 apple futures market showed phased growth and high - level fluctuations, driven by supply (yield, quality, inventory) and demand (demand differentiation). It can be divided into three stages: from January to June, low inventory and expected yield reduction drove the price to rise steadily from 7,800 yuan/ton to about 8,000 yuan/ton; from July to September, the price fluctuated at a high level around 8,000 yuan/ton due to confirmed yield reduction and higher opening prices of early - maturing apples; from October to November, the price accelerated to rise due to yield reduction and quality problems during the new apple harvest season [4][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Social Retail Data - From January to October 2025, China's social consumer retail market showed stable growth and structural optimization. The cumulative social retail sales from January to October reached 41.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The service retail sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year, faster than the 4.4% growth of commodity retail sales. The full - year social retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [8][9][12]. Price Level - In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, mild recovery" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The core CPI remained moderately increasing (up 0.6% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then declined in November (down 0.3% month - on - month). The annual CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% - 0.6%, and the PPI is expected to decline by 0.6% - 3.0%. Fruit prices were high in the first half and low in the second half, basically the same as the 2024 average [13][14][15]. 3. Apple Supply and Demand Analysis Characteristics of the 2025 - 26 Apple Market - The 2025 apple season was affected by abnormal climate, with characteristics of reduced yield and planting area (about 10% reduction), smaller fruit size, lower high - quality fruit ratio (20% lower than normal), higher price (about 0.5 yuan/jin higher on average), greater inventory risk, and later harvest and storage time (about 10 days later than usual). The opening price of new apples was significantly higher than in previous years [16][19][20]. Fluctuations in Apple Planting Income - Apple planting costs are relatively fixed, with high and increasing labor costs. Income mainly comes from fruit sales, and prices vary greatly among different varieties. Income fluctuates due to price and yield changes, with price changes having a greater impact. The government is promoting the "insurance + futures" project to help farmers manage risks [21]. Slight Yield Reduction in the Current Season - In 2025, China's apple yield was about 3,431 million tons, a reduction of about 6% compared to 2024. Yield was adjusted based on bagging volume, fruit diameter, and high - quality fruit ratio. Different regions had different yield changes, with most major regions experiencing a decline, and only a few small - scale regions achieving slight increases [26][27]. Significantly Reduced Apple Storage - As of November 19, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was about 7.7316 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The low storage was caused by weather disasters reducing yield, quality decline reducing effective inventory, and high market prices suppressing acquisition demand [29][30][31]. 4. 2026 Outlook - Due to slow domestic consumption recovery and low overall yield with greater quality differences, the scarcity of high - quality apples will gradually emerge after the Spring Festival, while the supply of low - grade apples will be relatively abundant. Therefore, the apple price is expected to show significant differentiation, with high - quality apples commanding higher prices [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The egg supply in 2026: The number of newly opened laying hens from January to May is expected to be average, with no significant pressure. If the Spring Festival market fails to meet expectations, it may accelerate the elimination of laying hens and relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure, but the inventory base in the first half of 2026 remains high [1][2][43]. - The egg demand in 2026: The consumption is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise. The demand will pick up due to festivals, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality is expected to narrow [1][2][43]. - The feed cost in 2026: It is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. The feed cost per catty of eggs is estimated to be between 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [2][41][44]. - The market outlook for 2026: There may be a phased rebound, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic [2][44]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Egg Market Review - The main theme of the spot price in 2025 was weak, with the price fluctuating in the range of 【2.54, 4.45】 yuan/catty, and the center of gravity moving down year - on - year [6]. - The price fluctuation went through five stages: decline from January to February, rebound and then decline from March to April, weak operation from April to early July, rise and then decline from mid - July to mid - September, and decline and then narrow - range fluctuation from late September to late November [6][7][8]. Fundamental Logic Analysis Supply Side - **In - production laying hen inventory**: In 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and reached a peak. As of November, it was at a high level in the past six years, and although it is currently declining, the base is still large [13][14]. - **Chick replenishment**: In 2025, the replenishment volume decreased year - on - year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back. The newly opened laying hens from January to May 2026 are expected to be at an average level, with no significant pressure [17][18]. - **Elimination of laying hens**: In 2025, the elimination volume increased year - on - year, with high elimination in May - June and October - November. The current chicken age structure is relatively young. If the Spring Festival market is disappointing, it may relieve the post - Spring Festival supply pressure [20][22][23]. - **Inventory forecast for 2026**: From January to May 2026, the number of newly opened laying hens is not large. If the elimination accelerates during the Spring Festival, the inventory may decline, but the base is still high, and capacity reduction takes time [29][30]. Demand Side - **Consumption seasonality**: In 2025, egg consumption was still driven by festivals, with obvious seasonal patterns. The price fluctuation caused by seasonality has narrowed due to inventory adjustment [32][33][35]. - **Substitute demand analysis**: In the first half of 2026, the high pressure of pig slaughter and the expected decline of vegetable prices may reduce the cost - effectiveness of eggs and weaken the substitute demand. In the second half of the year, attention should be paid to pig capacity reduction and extreme weather [37]. Cost Side - The cost of corn in 2026 is expected to be in the range of 2100 - 2350 yuan/ton, with a relatively loose supply - demand pattern [39]. - The supply and demand of soybean meal in 2026 are both strong, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The price may fall after March [40]. - The feed cost for laying hens in 2026 is estimated to be 2.5 - 2.85 yuan/catty [41]. Market Outlook for 2026 - The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 is expected to be relieved, but the inventory base is still high, which will limit the rebound height. - The demand is expected to be low after the Spring Festival and then rise, and the price fluctuation caused by seasonality will narrow. - The feed cost is expected to rise first and then fall, with a slight year - on - year increase. - There may be a phased rebound in the market, but capacity reduction is a long - term process, and one should not be overly optimistic.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the macro - atmosphere is generally warm. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive as it is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan". However, demand still lacks highlights, and supply becomes the key variable. Raw materials face downward pressure, steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 2025 Review 1.1 Market Review - Steel prices fluctuated in a "down - up - down" pattern with a small amplitude. The first decline was due to overseas tariff policies and cost reduction, the rise in July was from anti - involution, and the second decline was from the game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spread between the high and low points of the weighted closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils was only about 500 yuan [5]. - The average prices of coking coal and coke dropped significantly, with an annual average decline of over 25%. The average price of iron ore decreased by 8 US dollars/ton (6.88% decline), and the average prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased by about 300 yuan/ton (about 8.5% decline). The cost center of steel products moved down [9]. 1.2 Industrial Pattern - **Demand**: Domestic consumption of crude steel continued to decline, but steel and billet exports maintained high growth. From January to October, the cumulative apparent demand for crude steel decreased by 6.51% year - on - year, steel exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and net exports increased by 653 tons. The cumulative export of billets from January to October was 11.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.27 million tons [15]. - **Supply**: The consumption of scrap steel and the output of crude steel declined. From January to October, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of pig iron and crude steel output were - 1.8% and - 3.9% respectively. The consumption of scrap steel decreased by 13.3% year - on - year. The output of rebar decreased by 4.8 million tons ( - 2.0% growth rate), and the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.8 million tons (5.30% growth rate) [19][23][27]. - **Raw Materials**: The supply of iron ore and coking coal slightly declined, and inventories decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year. From January to October, the output of iron ore concentrate decreased by 3.70%, and imports increased by 0.62%. The supply of coking coal changed little year - on - year, with domestic production increasing by 1.17% and imports decreasing by 4.73%. The combined inventory of 247 sample steel mills and port trading mines decreased by about 10.65 million tons compared to the beginning of the year, and the coking coal and coke inventory decreased by about 5.5 million tons [31][32]. 2026 Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macroeconomy - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is in the "second half". After restarting rate cuts in September and October 2025, it is expected to cut rates again in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to 3% - 3.25%, providing more room and autonomy for China's monetary policy [40]. 2.2 Domestic Macroeconomy - 2026 is the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with expected positive policy tones. Boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand may be the key focus [45]. 2.3 Infrastructure Demand - Since the second half of 2025, infrastructure investment growth has declined significantly. Policy tools such as new policy - based financial instruments and increased local government debt quotas have been introduced. Policy effects may be gradually released at the end of 2025 and early 2026, and infrastructure investment is expected to remain stable in 2026 [49]. 2.4 Real Estate Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to decline. The real estate development model is changing from an incremental to a stock market. In 2026, real estate is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 10% decline in real estate investment and a continued decline in steel consumption for real estate [54]. 2.5 Manufacturing Demand - Since the second half of 2025, the monthly investment growth rate in the manufacturing industry has turned negative, with significant industry differentiation. In 2026, manufacturing investment is still under pressure, but industry differentiation will be severe [58]. 2.6 Import and Export Demand - In 2025, despite anti - dumping and trade wars, steel exports maintained growth due to changes in export destinations and varieties. In 2026, although challenges remain, steel exports are expected to remain high due to corporate expansion overseas and adjustment of export structures [60][62]. 2.7 Supply - In 2026, policy influence on the steel supply side may increase. The "15th Five - Year Plan" emphasizes carbon emission control, and it is possible to restrict steel production through carbon emissions, which may become the main trading logic in the market [66][69]. 2.8 Raw Materials - **Coking Coal**: In 2026, domestic coking coal production may be regulated according to demand. Mongolian coking coal imports are expected to increase by about 7 million tons [74]. - **Iron Ore**: Overseas iron ore supply is expected to increase by about 72 million tons in 2026, while domestic production will remain stable. The supply of overseas iron ore projects is progressing faster than domestic ones [87]. 3. Outlook - Macroscopically, the Fed's interest - rate cut is in the "second half", and China's policies are expected to be positive. Industry - wise, demand lacks highlights, supply is the key variable, and raw materials face downward pressure. Steel prices will fluctuate within a range, and there will be a differentiation between finished products and raw materials. Opportunities in going long on steel and short on iron ore can be considered [88][89][91].

公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 [2014]1 号 研究员： 汪国栋 咨询电话：027-65777106 从业编号：F03101701 投资咨询编号：Z0021167 相关研究 2025-12-08 《行情仍然可期》 -2025.7.2 《政策预期引导，价格循序渐进》 -2024.12.27 《牛途未尽，逢低买入》 -2024.6.28 《布局多头，关注预期差》 -2023.12.28 《短期调整，不改长期配置价值》 -2023.7.3 《周期切换可期，运行中枢上移》 -2022.12.27 流动性支撑，牛市延续 产业服务总部 ——贵金属年度策略 有色产业服务中心 报告要点 ◆ 总观点 美国经济指标走弱，美国零售销售、就业数据陆续走弱，导致美国 经济预期恶化。前期美国经济保持韧性，在于美国财政赤字持续大规模 扩张支持居民和企业资产负债表修复，如果美国财政力度在 2026 年财年 后期大幅削减，可能对经济形成拖累。美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言， 市场预期 12 月降息概率大幅升温。哈塞特可能成为下任美联储主席，哈 塞特与特朗普关系紧密，并主张降息，市场预期明年降息次数增加。 美元信 ...

2025-12-8 通胀筑底回升，市场慢牛延续 长江期货 ——2026 年金融期货年报 核心观点 2025 年，中国资本市场在外部环境扰动、内部政策调 节、科技产业突破的三重博弈中度过。A 股市场制度不断完 善，慢牛格局逐步稳定，核心驱动力始终围绕政策预期与风险 偏好的波动展开，市场在外部冲击与内部托底的反复拉扯中完 成多轮切换。今年市场的上涨更多是估值驱动，在基本面温和 复苏的路径下，2026 年或逐步转向盈利驱动。 展望 2026 年，中国经济将在财政积极与货币协同的双宽 松格局下，步入宏观温和复苏、微观盈利筑底修复的新阶段。 经济增长预计保持韧性，CPI 与 PPI 价格的温和回升将成为驱 动企业盈利改善的关键宏观要素。资本市场的主导逻辑将从 2025 年的估值与预期修复，有望转向由基本面驱动的真实盈 利增长。在这一背景下，股市或呈现结构性机遇，而债市则将 在政策的平衡与制约中呈现区间震荡格局。 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 {2014}1 号 研究员 张志恒 从业证号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 咨询电话：027-65777169 （一）股指期 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting treasury bonds to trade sideways [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Recommending range trading for coking coal and rebar; advising to wait and not chase highs for glass [1][5][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Suggesting range trading for copper, tin, and gold; recommending to reduce long positions when aluminum rebounds to a high level; advising to wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; suggesting to hold long positions in silver and be cautious about new positions; expecting lithium carbonate to trade with a bullish bias [1][10][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Recommending range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; suggesting to wait and see for caustic soda and soda ash; expecting polyolefins to trade weakly [1][19][21][26] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Expecting cotton and cotton yarn to trade with a bullish bias; expecting PTA to rise in a sideways movement; expecting apples to trade with a bullish bias; expecting red dates to trade weakly [1][27][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Recommending a strategy of shorting on rallies for near - term hog contracts and being cautiously bullish on far - term contracts; expecting egg prices to face limited upside; suggesting to be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and for grain holders to hedge on rallies; recommending range trading for soybean meal; suggesting to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [1][30][32][36] Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the price trends and investment opportunities of different sectors, including macro finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton and textile industry chain, and agriculture and animal husbandry [1][5][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: A - shares fluctuated and recovered. Although the market's main line rotated quickly and trading volume was poor, expectations of Fed rate cuts and domestic meetings supported the indices. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond futures opened and closed lower. Whether the market can break out of the current range depends on the actual buying power of year - end allocation funds and the guidance of important meetings on next year's economic situation and monetary policy. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - **Double Coking**: The coal market continued to decline, with weak demand and a strong bearish sentiment. It is expected to trade in a range [6][7] - **Rebar**: Futures prices rebounded slightly. The current valuation is neutral to low, and there are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions. It is expected to trade sideways at a low level [7] - **Glass**: Futures prices rebounded recently due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - cash traders. However, the overall inventory pressure is still large, and it is recommended to wait and not chase highs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the DRC is complex. Although long - term demand is optimistic, short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended to trade in a range [10] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is expected to increase, and the overall demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel ore may become more abundant in the future, and the refined nickel market is in a surplus. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [13][14][15] - **Tin**: Tin production increased in October, and the supply of tin concentrate is tight. The price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to trade in a range [15] - **Silver and Gold**: Supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts and safe - haven demand, they are expected to trade sideways. It is recommended to hold long positions in silver and trade gold in a range [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to trade with a bullish bias, and attention should be paid to the progress of mines in Yichun and the resumption of production at Ningde's mine [17][18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, supply is high, and demand is weak. It is expected to continue to trade at a low level [19] - **Caustic Soda**: Inventory is high, and the valuation is suppressed by the expected reduction in alumina production. It is recommended to wait and see [21] - **Styrene**: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways [21] - **Rubber**: Supply is increasing during the peak season, and demand is poor. It is expected to trade in a range [22] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is weakening. However, the reduction in inventory provides support, and it is expected to trade sideways [23][24] - **Methanol**: Domestic supply has recovered, and port inventory has decreased. It is expected to trade sideways [25] - **Polyolefins**: Inventory continued to decline, but demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to trade weakly [25][26] - **Soda Ash**: Supply is in excess, but the cost provides support. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Although global supply - demand data is relatively loose, domestic cotton sales are fast, and yarn prices are firm. They are expected to trade with a bullish bias [27][28] - **PTA**: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand dynamics, it is expected to rise in a sideways movement [28] - **Apples**: The trading volume in the warehouse is general, and prices are expected to trade with a bullish bias [29] - **Red Dates**: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%. Enterprises' acquisition enthusiasm is average, and prices are expected to trade weakly [30] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, supply pressure remains, and prices are expected to adjust slightly. In the long term, capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish on far - term contracts [30][31][32] - **Eggs**: The supply is still sufficient, but short - term supply - demand conditions have marginally improved. In the long term, capacity reduction still takes time. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33] - **Corn**: In the short term, price rebounds may be limited by increased supply. In the long term, cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and for grain holders to hedge on rallies [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybeans is expected to trade in a narrow range. Domestic supply is sufficient in December and January. It is recommended to trade in a range [36][37] - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, the three major domestic oils lack further positive factors and are expected to trade at a high level. It is recommended to take profits on previous long positions in soybean and palm oil and beware of correction risks [37][38][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][5][7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions when rebounding to high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1][10][13][15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][17][19][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1][25][26][27]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: For live pigs, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended for near - term contracts, and cautious optimism for far - term contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests selling on rallies for hedging in the short term and expecting support in the long term; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, it is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [1][28][30][32][34][35]. Core Views - The global economic situation shows some resilience, but there are still uncertainties such as the impact of US tariffs and the monetary policies of major central banks. Different sectors in the futures market are affected by various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations, leading to different investment suggestions for each product [5][10][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The external environment has improved, but the market's main themes rotate quickly. Index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term and are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: In December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. If the market has a conservative expectation for the bond market next year, the intensity of the rally driven by the "front - running" of allocation funds may be weaker than in previous years. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Market participants are generally waiting and watching. Mainstream coal mines continue to cut prices for promotion, and the overall market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended for range trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price fluctuates narrowly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price drivers for both rise and fall are weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and short - term trading is recommended [7]. - **Glass**: The glass futures rebounded last week due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - spot traders. However, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the demand is weak at the end of the year. It is advised to observe without chasing high prices [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex, and the market is focusing on the long - term contract negotiations of copper mines. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but the short - term high price may suppress consumption. It is expected to trade at a high level, and range trading is recommended [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, which may put pressure on the ore price. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is gradually entering the off - season, but the macro sentiment has improved. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - **Nickel**: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainty to the nickel ore market supply. In the medium to long term, the nickel supply is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [12][13]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production increased in October. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected that the tin price will be supported, and range trading is recommended [13]. - **Silver**: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. Silver prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [14][15]. - **Gold**: Similar to silver, gold prices are expected to be supported by the expectation of a rate cut and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of mine permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export growth rate is questionable, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and range trading is recommended [17]. - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, and the profit of the alumina industry is compressed. The production and reduction of capacity have offsetting effects on caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and watch [19]. - **Styrene**: The rebound of the benzene series is mainly due to the "blending for oil" narrative. The overseas "blending for oil" logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [19]. - **Rubber**: The price of overseas raw materials has continued to fall, and the supply - side support has weakened. The inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [20]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the industrial demand is strengthening. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [21][22]. - **Methanol**: The supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [23]. - **Polyolefins**: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is weakening after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to be weakly volatile [23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong after the supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic cotton sales are fast recently, and the yarn price is firm, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors have led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and the range of 4600 - 4900 should be focused on [26]. - **Apples**: The inventory of late - Fuji apples is mainly shipped on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the warehouse is average. It is expected to be strongly volatile [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 80%. The acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Live Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously optimistic about far - term contracts [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply - demand is marginally improved, but the long - term production capacity reduction still takes time. The price increase is limited [30][31]. - **Corn**: In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be digested, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [32][33]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic and foreign soybean markets have different situations. The supply in the short term is relatively abundant, and range trading is recommended [34][35]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term upward momentum of domestic oils and fats is insufficient, and they are expected to trade at a high level. It is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [35][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be on the sidelines and not chased higher [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is for range short - term trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions at high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to trade strongly sideways [1][10][13][15] - Energy and chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, soda ash, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][17][25] - Cotton and textile industry chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade strongly sideways; PTA is expected to rise in a sideways trend; apples are expected to trade strongly sideways; red dates are expected to trade weakly sideways [1][26][29] - Agricultural and livestock: For live pigs, near - term contracts are expected to adjust weakly at low levels, and be cautious about chasing rallies in far - term contracts; egg prices are limited in their upward movement; corn suggests hedging on rallies; soybean meal is mainly for range operations; oils are expected to rebound from lows, with a strategy of buying on dips [1][30][35][41] Core Views The report provides trading strategies and market outlooks for various futures products across different industries. It analyzes the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors affecting each product, and offers corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses [1][5][7] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock indices: The external environment has improved, but the market rotation is fast. They are expected to trade sideways in the short term and be bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - Treasury bonds: After entering December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. They are expected to trade sideways [5] Black Building Materials - Coking coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. It is recommended for range trading [7] - Rebar: It is in a policy vacuum period. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is expected to trade sideways at low levels, mainly for short - term trading [7] - Glass: Although there are rumors of production line shutdowns causing a rebound in the futures market, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the year - end demand is weak. It is not advisable to chase higher in the near - term contracts [9] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in Congo (Kinshasa) is complex. The long - term demand is optimistic, but the short - term high prices may suppress consumption. It is recommended for range short - term trading [10] - Aluminum: The macro - sentiment has improved, and it may continue to rebound in the short term. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels [11] - Nickel: The supply is expected to be loose in the long term. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [13] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply recovery and downstream demand improvement, and for range trading [13] - Gold and silver: Supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and safe - haven demand, gold is for range trading, and silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions [15] - Lithium carbonate: The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is expected to trade strongly sideways. Pay attention to the progress of Yichun mines and the resumption of production of Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading, and pay attention to policies and cost - side disturbances [17] - Caustic soda: The valuation is suppressed by the expectation of alumina production cuts. It is recommended to wait and watch [19] - Styrene: The overseas blending logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade sideways, and pay attention to the price of pure benzene in January and the change of the crude oil pricing center [19] - Rubber: The market is bearish, and the demand improvement is limited. It is recommended for range trading [21] - Urea: The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. It is expected to trade sideways [22] - Methanol: The supply in the inland has recovered, and the port inventory has decreased. It is recommended for range trading [24] - Polyolefins: The inventory is decreasing, but the demand is insufficient after the peak season. PE is expected to trade sideways in the range, and PP is expected to trade weakly sideways [25] - Soda ash: The supply is in surplus, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to wait and watch [25] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and cotton yarn: Although the global supply - demand data is loose, the recent domestic cotton sales are fast, and the yarn price is firm, so they are expected to trade strongly sideways [26] - PTA: Affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships, it is expected to rise in a sideways trend, with a focus on the range of 4600 - 4900 [27] - Apples: The inventory is mainly sold as needed, and the price is expected to trade strongly sideways [28] - Red dates: The acquisition progress in Xinjiang is about 80%, and the price is expected to trade weakly sideways [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Live pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the capacity reduction is accelerating but still above the normal level. The near - term contracts are for short - selling on rallies, and be cautious about chasing rallies in the far - term contracts [30][31] - Eggs: In the short term, the supply - demand is marginally improved, and the price has support. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. The 01 contract has a large premium over the spot, and the price increase is limited [31][32] - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure, and it is recommended to hedge on rallies. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand is relatively loose, and the upward space is limited [33][34] - Soybean meal: It is mainly for range operations, and spot enterprises can fix the basis for December - January [35][36] - Oils: In the short term, the trends of different oils are differentiated. In the long term, they are expected to trade in a wide range. Be cautious about chasing rallies in soybean and palm oils, and pay attention to Malaysian palm oil high - frequency data and the December MPOB report [37][41]