期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 11 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅：Z0015756 电话：027-65777102 邮箱：caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,909.52 | -0.37% | | 深圳成指 | 13,277.36 | -0.39% | | 沪深 300 | 4,598.22 | -0.51% | | 上证 50 | 2,997.96 | -0.71% | | 中证 500 | 7,121.33 | -0.71% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,655.10 | 0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 47,560.29 | -0.38% | | 标普 500 | 6,840.51 | -0.09% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,576.49 | 0.13% | | 美元指数 | 99.2426 | 0.14% | | 人民币 | 7.0693 | -0.03% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,236.60 | 0.40 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 09 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 观望不追高 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 轻仓持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议多单考虑减仓 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开仓谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡上行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The year 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle, and the industry needs thorough capacity clearance to enter the upward cycle [1][12][55] - Supply in 2026 will be high in the first half and low in the second half, with significant pressure in the first quarter. The high average weight of live pigs and concentrated pre - holiday slaughtering will suppress price increases during the peak season [2][54][56] - In 2026, as the "14th Five - Year Plan" begins, the warming macro - economy and improved pork cost - effectiveness will drive a moderate increase in pork demand, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [2][40][56] - Feed costs will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2026, and the industry will continue to reduce costs and increase efficiency, with the expected full cost dropping to around 12 yuan/kg [3][49][56] - Policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support measures such as state reserves will be implemented [3][51][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the pig market price was under pressure due to over - supply. The national live pig slaughter price fluctuated between 10.81 yuan/kg and 16.23 yuan/kg, and the futures showed a pattern of limited rebound and downward oscillation [7] - From January to February, the price fluctuated and declined. After the Spring Festival in February, the spot price quickly dropped to 14.5 yuan/kg, and then stopped falling and oscillated. The futures were relatively strong [7] - From March to June, the price fluctuated within a narrow range. After the festivals in April, the price decreased due to strong supply and weak demand. In June, it stopped falling and rebounded [8] - From July to December, the price trended downward. In September, the pig - grain ratio fell below 6:1. On December 5, the price dropped to 11.1 yuan/ton, a 31.6% decline from the beginning - of - year high [9] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pig Cycle - Since 2006, China has experienced about four complete pig cycles. The fifth cycle lasted about 23 months. If 2024 March is the starting point of a new cycle, as of November 2025, the decline stage has reached 15 months [12] - Compared with the fifth cycle, the current cycle's loss time and amplitude in the breeding sector are still insufficient. The industry needs more losses to drive thorough capacity clearance, and 2026 is expected to be in the bottom - grinding stage of the downward cycle [12][55] 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Accelerated culling of sows but still above the normal level**: Before September 2025, the culling of sows was slow. After September, under policy pressure and losses, the culling accelerated. As of October, the official sow inventory was 3990 million, still 2.31% above the normal level [17][19] - **Optimized sow inventory structure and improved production performance**: The proportion of binary sows has increased to 95%. In 2025, the industry's production performance continued to improve. The increase in production performance will offset some of the impact of capacity culling and increase potential supply in 2026 [25][26] - **Increasing number of piglets and high supply pressure in Q1 2026**: Since February 2025, the number of new - born piglets has increased. Based on piglet and feed data, the supply pressure from December 2025 to Q1 2026 is high [30] - **Higher average slaughter weight and short - term pressure to be released**: In 2025, the influence of secondary fattening decreased. The high average weight of live pigs reflects high supply pressure. Before the Spring Festival, the concentrated slaughter of large - scale farms and big pigs may form a "double pressure" [33][34] 3.2.3 Demand Side - **Steady growth in demand driven by macro - economic recovery and cost - effectiveness**: In 2025, the macro - economy had a weak recovery, consumer confidence was low, and pig demand was weak. In 2026, the improvement of the macro - economy and the cost - effectiveness of pork will drive the growth of pork consumption, but the increase is restricted by the macro - economic recovery and consumer confidence [40][41][56] - **Seasonal demand still exists but with milder fluctuations**: In 2025, the seasonal demand boost was short - lived and weak. In 2026, the Spring Festival is postponed, and the change in the industrial pattern will further weaken the peak - season characteristics [42] - **High frozen - product inventory and limited support for consumption**: The current high frozen - product inventory will suppress supply before and after the peak season [2][56] 3.2.4 Cost Side - In 2025, the feed price was low, and the average full cost of listed companies in September/October dropped to 12.69 yuan/kg [49] - In 2026, the feed cost will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the industry is expected to reduce the full cost to around 12 yuan/kg [50][56] 3.2.5 Policy Side - In 2025, multi - dimensional anti - involution policies were introduced to control production capacity, weight, secondary fattening, and strengthen environmental protection, aiming to guide the industry towards high - quality development [51][52] - The policy requires the reduction of sow inventory to below 3900 million by the end of January 2026, which can control the supply of live pigs in 2026 from the source [51] - In the future, policies will continue to guide the orderly exit of production capacity and stabilize prices. If the pig price drops sharply below 5:1 in 2026, policy support such as state reserves will be provided [52][57] 3.3 Outlook - Before the first half of 2026, supply will remain high, and the price during the peak season is not optimistic. The price in the first half of the year will be under pressure, and it may be relatively strong in the second half, but caution is needed due to cost reduction [57] - In terms of strategies, under supply pressure, short - term contracts should be shorted on rebounds, and long - term contracts should be cautiously bullish. The industry can hedge on rallies before effective capacity reduction [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, copper prices reached new highs driven by both macro and fundamental factors. The easing of Sino-US trade frictions was positive, and the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle boosted copper prices. In 2026, the tightness of copper mine supply is expected to intensify, and in the long term, the demand for new energy, power, and AI data center construction will increase steadily. Therefore, the upward momentum of copper prices remains strong. However, due to the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting [5][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices rose under the influence of overseas interest rate cuts and copper mine shortages, with strong support from new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. Although tariff disturbances periodically suppressed copper prices, copper prices still reached new highs under the impetus of favorable macro factors and strong supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Q1**: Copper prices oscillated upward. Overseas interest rate cuts, tight raw material supply, and positive domestic policy expectations pushed up copper prices. However, factors such as Trump's tariff policy, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the Altonorte smelter incident affected the price trend, resulting in a high - level oscillation pattern with limited gains [11]. - **Q2**: Copper prices first fell sharply and then rebounded. Trump's tariff policy shocked the market, but the tight supply and strong demand of copper fundamentals supported the price rebound. Events such as the Kakula mine shutdown, the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Palestine, and Sino - US economic and trade talks also influenced the price [12]. - **Q3**: Copper prices were generally strong. In July, copper prices first rose and then fell due to factors such as supply tightening expectations and Trump's copper tariff implementation. In August and September, positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the Fed's dovish remarks, and domestic policy expectations boosted copper prices. The shutdown of the Grasberg mine due to a mudslide also pushed up copper prices [13]. - **Q4**: Copper prices reached new highs. The Sino - US summit and trade consultations brought confidence to the market. The Fed's interest rate cuts and the continuous tight supply of copper mines supported the price increase [14]. 2. Macro Analysis (1) Overseas - **Global economic growth slowdown**: In 2025, due to uncertainties such as overseas anti - globalization tariff policies, the global trade pattern was reshaped, and the economic growth rate was expected to slow down. According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate in 2025 was 2.8%, a 40 - basis - point reduction from the previous forecast [15]. - **US economic situation**: - **Manufacturing and service industries**: The US manufacturing PMI was relatively low, with the November 2025 ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.2, remaining below the boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The service industry continued to expand, with the October ISM services PMI reaching 52.4, the highest in eight months [17]. - **GDP**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, mainly driven by improved business investment and a significant boost in trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth, and consumer spending was also robust [18]. - **Inflation**: US inflation increased slightly and was generally moderate. In September, the CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core inflation rate increased by 0.2% month - on - month. The PCE price index was in line with expectations, which further promoted the Fed's interest rate cut in December [19]. - **Employment**: The US labor market cooled down. The unemployment rate rose from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% in September. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000 in November, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability continued to increase [25]. (2) Domestic - **Social financing and price levels**: - **Social financing**: The growth rate of China's social financing scale slowed down in the second half of 2025. From January to October, the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.9 trillion yuan, but the increment in October was the lowest since August 2024. The M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating a decline in the willingness of enterprises and residents to consume and invest [26]. - **Inflation**: The improvement of China's CPI was still moderate. In October, CPI turned positive year - on - year, mainly driven by food, service, and gold prices. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year, and the year - on - year decline narrowed [28]. - **Economic growth**: In 2025, China's economic growth faced mild downward pressure due to insufficient domestic demand and overseas tariff policies. The manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, but the service industry was generally expanding. From January to October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The economic growth pressure was more prominent in the fourth quarter, but the full - year 5% growth target could still be achieved [30][31]. - **Policy**: China proposed "strengthening unconventional counter - cyclical regulation" this year. In May, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions provided guidance for future economic development. In 2026, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policies are expected to be more proactive to ensure a stable economic start [34][35]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **Copper mines**: - **Overseas mine disruptions**: In 2025, global copper mine accidents frequently occurred, such as the Kakula mine earthquake in Congo, the El Teniente mine collapse in Chile, and the Grasberg mine mudslide in Indonesia. The ICSG lowered the mine supply growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%. The global copper concentrate supply increment was less than expected, and the copper concentrate TC was at a historical low [36][38]. - **Domestic imports and inventory**: From January to October, China imported 22.684 million tons of copper ore, a year - on - year increase of 7.58%. As of November 28, the copper concentrate port inventory was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.14%, indicating a tight supply [39]. - **Electrolytic copper**: - **Global production**: Some large mining companies lowered their copper production targets due to mine accidents. The ICSG predicted a 150,000 - ton global copper supply shortage in 2026. Global new smelting capacity exceeded copper ore supply, and some overseas smelters stopped production due to various reasons [40][42]. - **Domestic production**: From January to November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11.76% year - on - year. However, since September, production has decreased month - on - month due to raw material shortages and smelter overhauls. The price increase of by - product sulfuric acid alleviated the smelting pressure [43]. - **Recycled copper**: - **Import**: China's recycled copper imports were stable. Although imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, imports from Southeast Asia and other regions increased. The country's policies support the development of the recycled copper industry, and the demand for recycled copper imports is expected to be stable in 2026 [45][47]. - **Downstream industry**: The operating rate of recycled copper rods was at a low level. Factors such as tight supply of recycled copper raw materials, weak downstream orders, and policy uncertainties led to a low operating rate [48]. - **Imports and exports**: - **Imports**: China is a net importer of electrolytic copper. In 2025, the import profit window was mostly closed. From January to October, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.34% year - on - year [49][51]. - **Exports**: The export window opened in June, and the export volume increased significantly in October. From January to October, the cumulative export of electrolytic copper increased by 29.44% year - on - year [51]. (2) Demand Side - **New energy and power investment**: - **New energy installation**: As of October, the total installed power generation capacity in China increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The "抢装潮" in the first half of the year affected the new installation volume in the second half, but the annual new installation volume of photovoltaic and wind power still increased steadily. The new installation scale of new energy is expected to reach a new high during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [55][56]. - **Grid investment**: The grid investment scale reached a new high this year, driving copper demand. The investment in the power grid and energy storage is expected to increase during the 15th Five - Year Plan period to support the development of new energy [57]. - **Real estate**: The real estate market was at the bottom - grinding stage. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales area all decreased year - on - year. Although the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions aim to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market, the market's recovery still depends on subsequent policies [59][60]. - **Automobiles**: - **Domestic market**: From January to October, China's automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales maintained high growth. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been above 50% since March [64][65]. - **Global market**: Global new energy vehicle sales increased steadily. China is the world's largest exporter of new energy vehicles, but exports may be restricted by tariffs in 2026. With policy support, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to remain high in 2026 [67][68]. - **Home appliances**: The "two - new" policies promoted the stable growth of home appliance production and sales. Since the second quarter of 2025, the domestic home appliance market has seen a trend of strong domestic sales and weak exports. Although the policy effectiveness has declined, the production and sales growth of home appliances is expected to remain stable in 2026 with the continuous strengthening of consumption - boosting policies [69][72]. 4. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - **Domestic inventory**: Since March 2025, domestic copper inventory has been decreasing. Although there was a slight increase in inventory in the second half of the year due to high copper prices, the inventory decreased again with the price correction. As of December 5, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory and domestic copper social inventory were at low levels in recent years [73]. - **Overseas inventory**: Overseas copper smelting capacity shrank due to tight copper concentrate supply and negative processing fees. The LME inventory decreased, and the COMEX inventory increased. The global visible inventory decreased, but it increased in the second half of the year due to the opening of the LME - COMEX arbitrage window [73][74]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The global refined copper production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down year by year. There were regional shortages and supply - demand mismatches in overseas copper. The supply - demand balance of domestic refined copper is expected to show that consumption growth is higher than production capacity release [76]. 5. 2026 Outlook - **Macro factors**: The easing of Sino - US trade frictions is positive, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, which is beneficial to copper prices. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm in 2026 and the potential impact of the US's additional tariffs on refined copper [78]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper mines is expected to be tighter in 2026. The ICSG predicts a 150,000 - ton supply shortage. The copper concentrate TC is at a historical low, and the long - term contract copper supply premium of Codelco has increased significantly. Under the influence of raw material shortages and anti - involution measures, refined copper production may shrink [79][80]. - **Demand**: The demand for copper is expected to grow steadily. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on new energy, power, and AI data center construction, which will drive copper demand. Policies to promote consumption will also boost the production and sales of new energy vehicles and home appliances [81]. - **Price trend**: Copper prices are expected to have strong upward momentum, but may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting due to the suppression of downstream demand by high prices [82].

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 能化产业服务中心 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨 询业务资格：鄂证监期货字 [2014]1 号 研究员 张英 供应：2025 年 1-11 月，PE 累计产量达 3018.38 万吨， 同比增加 18.85%，11 月，PE 产量 289.09 万吨，环比+0.25%。 2025 年 1-11 月，PP 累计产量达 3666.55 万吨，同比增加 16.83%，11 月，PP 产量 346.55 万吨，环比-1.09%。在聚烯 烃的产能投放周期下，各月产量均为历史高位。 需求：2025 年，受制于下游需求弱势，聚烯烃下游开工率 不同程度地出现不及预期的情况。PE 下游需求方面，农膜开工 率已有见顶回落趋势，地膜需求难以支撑。包装膜及 PE 管材 开工同比偏低，基本维持刚需采购为主。PP 下游需求方面，塑 编、BOPP 及 PP 管材开工情况尚好，但整体需求跟进不足。 总结：2026 年上半年聚烯烃装置新投产产能较少，几乎是 新投产真空期，随着春节后传统旺季的到来，国内聚烯烃库存 有望得到消化。下半年是聚烯烃主要装置集中投产期，随着产 能放量，供应端压力再次剧增。总体来 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market currently maintains the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The increase in the global total soybean supply is lower than that of the total demand, and the ending inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio have both declined from high levels, with the supply-demand pattern slightly tightening. However, the supply-demand pattern remains loose [1][3][40]. - In 2026, it is expected that the domestic inventories of hogs and poultry will remain at high levels, supporting feed demand. Although the overall inventory is expected to decline slightly compared to 2025, the proportion of soybean meal added to feed is expected to increase year-on-year due to its improved cost-effectiveness and lower price. High inventories and cost-effectiveness will support the demand for soybean meal, which is expected to remain above 85 million tons in 2026, corresponding to a soybean volume of over 100 million tons [1][40][41]. - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from Brazilian soybeans during the supply season (May - August) is calculated to be 2,580 yuan per ton, and it rises to 2,760 yuan per ton from July - September. The planting cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is 1,000 cents per bushel, and the domestic import cost of US soybeans is calculated to be 3,000 yuan per ton. The overall crushing profit from December - January is maintained between -100 yuan per ton and -200 yuan per ton, while the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is around 30 yuan per ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [2][41]. - In 2026, the domestic soybean meal market will have strong supply and demand, and inventory accumulation will continue. Before the South American production increase is realized, the downside space for soybean meal is relatively limited, but once the production increase is realized, the risk of price decline will intensify [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated between "weak reality and strong expectation" throughout the year, showing a pattern of "increased volatility in the first half and consolidation in the second half". The annual average price of the main contract fluctuated around 3,020 yuan per ton, with a price difference of 387 yuan per ton between the high and low points [7]. - From January - March, policy disturbances led to a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. The spot price of soybean meal rose from 2,980 yuan per ton at the beginning of January to 3,050 yuan per ton at the end of the month, and the futures main contract rebounded to 3,030 yuan per ton. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 58%, and the inventory fell to a low of 650,000 tons. The basis strengthened to 350 yuan per ton, and the spot price soared to 3,120 yuan per ton. In March, the failure of state - owned enterprises to sell reserved soybeans as scheduled and tightened port clearance led to a shortage of spot supply, with the basis once exceeding 800 yuan per ton and the futures main contract reaching a high of 3,240 yuan per ton [7]. - From April - June, the abundant supply suppressed prices. In late April, South American soybeans arrived at ports in large quantities, with the monthly arrival volume reaching 9.2 million tons. The oil mill operating rate rebounded to 78%, and the soybean meal inventory quickly accumulated to 980,000 tons. The price started to decline, with the spot average price dropping from 3,100 yuan per ton to 3,010 yuan per ton. In May, the export progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded expectations, the crushing profit of domestic oil mills improved, and the operating rate remained high. Coupled with weak demand in the breeding industry due to losses, the soybean meal price continued to decline to 2,950 yuan per ton. In June, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area led the market to trade the logic of a bumper harvest in advance, with the futures main contract reaching a low of 2,860 yuan per ton and the spot average price dropping to 2,900 yuan per ton [8]. - From July - September, there was a game between weather disturbances and high inventory pressure. In July, a temporary drought in North America led to a downward adjustment of the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans, causing the futures main contract to rebound to 3,020 yuan per ton. However, the spot inventory remained as high as 1.1 million tons, and some oil mills stopped production due to full storage. The spot price only rebounded to 2,960 yuan per ton. In August, the export of South American soybeans was coming to an end, and the domestic soybean arrival volume decreased by 15% month - on - month. However, the peak season demand for aquaculture was lower than expected, and the price fluctuated in the range of 2,980 - 3,030 yuan per ton. In September, Argentina's cancellation of the soybean export tax led to an expected decline in import costs, and the double - festival stocking was lower than expected. The spot average price decreased by 0.5% month - on - month to 3,013 yuan per ton, a 2.74% decline compared to the same period last year [8]. - From October - December, the market was in a process of bottom - building and expectation repair. In October, the soybean import volume increased by 17.25% year - on - year to 9.482 million tons, and the supply remained abundant. However, the futures market was driven by the expectation of a US soybean yield reduction, and the main contract rebounded from a low of 2,852 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 4.9%. In November, the USDA report lowered the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans to 53 bushels per acre, but the export forecast was also lowered. The market showed a pattern of rising and then回调, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 3,000 - 3,089 yuan per ton, and the spot average price slightly decreasing to 3,036 yuan per ton. In December, the sowing of South American soybeans was basically completed, and the expectation of a bumper harvest suppressed the upside space of prices. The main contract returned to a consolidation state, and the spot average price at the end of the month was expected to remain around 3,040 yuan per ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: The global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/2026 season is loose. The USDA estimates the global soybean output to reach 422 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.9%. South America is the core supply area, with Brazil's soybean output reaching a record high. The CONAB maintains the output forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 177.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the USDA also estimates a bumper harvest of 175 million tons. Although some areas in Mato Grosso had to replant due to drought in October, the overall production situation is stable. Argentina's output is expected to decline year - on - year, with the Rosario Exchange estimating 47 million tons, lower than the previous year's 49.5 million tons, but still at a historically high level. However, affected by the La Nina weather from December - January, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is slow, and the output may be affected to varying degrees. In the North American market, the output of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was lowered to 4.253 billion bushels due to insufficient precipitation in the main producing areas in August, with a yield per unit area of 53 bushels per acre. The export performance is weak, with the USDA estimating the export volume at 1.635 billion bushels, a significant decline from the previous year's 1.875 billion bushels. The main reason is that under the 13% tariff, the discount of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit, which leads to insufficient enthusiasm for commercial procurement by Chinese enterprises [12]. - **Demand Side**: The total global demand for soybean meal is estimated to be 422 million tons, showing a steady increase compared to the previous year. The global soybean consumption is basically the same as the output. Regionally, China accounts for more than 29% of the consumption and is still the world's largest consumer market. The estimated import volume of Chinese soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. In Asia, the large - scale development of the breeding industry drives the rigid growth of feed demand, supporting the import demand for soybean meal. In Europe, affected by environmental protection policies, the growth rate of the breeding scale has slowed down, and the demand growth is moderate. In the Americas, the demand for local feed and the biodiesel industry complement each other, and the overall demand is stable. There is significant regional demand differentiation. In emerging markets, due to population growth and the upgrading of meat consumption, the growth rate of soybean meal demand exceeds 5%. In developed countries, due to the improvement of breeding efficiency and the application of alternative raw materials, the demand growth rate is maintained at around 2%. Sino - US trade policies have reshaped the global trade flow, presenting a pattern of "South America supplying Asia, North America supplying itself and neighboring regions". Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to account for more than 50% of the global total, with 74% of its exports going to China. The proportion of US soybean exports to China is only 17.6%, a decrease of more than 30 percentage points compared to before the trade friction, and more US soybeans are flowing to Europe and the South American local market [14][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In 2025, the domestic soybean import volume reached 113 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January - October, the cumulative import volume was 95.682 million tons. The import structure shows a significant trade policy orientation, with South American soybeans accounting for more than 85% (78% from Brazil and 7% from Argentina) and US soybeans accounting for 10.6%, mainly from state - owned trade procurement under the Sino - US trade agreement, with a very low proportion of commercial imports. The estimated arrival volume in November was 9.685 million tons, and in December it was 7 million tons, with a continuous abundant supply. The soybean inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%, and there was over - storage in some areas. The crushing volume also increased significantly, with the annual crushing volume reaching a record high of 101 million tons. The average operating rate of oil mills was maintained at around 72%. In the first quarter, the operating rate was low due to policy disturbances, and it rebounded to 75% - 80% in the second and third quarters as the soybean arrival volume increased. Affected by Sino - US trade policies, the proportion of US soybeans crushed by coastal oil mills was less than 8%, far lower than 35% in 2017, mainly concentrated in large - scale oil mills with state - owned trade quotas, while small and medium - sized oil mills still mainly used Brazilian soybeans as raw materials. The soybean meal output increased in tandem with the crushing volume, with an annual output of about 83 million tons. The inventory showed the characteristics of "de - stocking in the first half of the year and inventory accumulation in the second half". As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67%, and it was at a historically high level [18][19]. - **Demand Side**: In 2025, the domestic soybean meal consumption was over 85 million tons, with feed consumption accounting for more than 95%. The demand from the breeding industry is the core support. In the pig - breeding industry, although it was in a loss state for most of the year, the process of reducing production capacity was slow, and the inventory remained at a high level, supporting the demand for soybean meal in pig feed. In the poultry - breeding industry, due to the short cycle and flexible adjustment, there was a reduction in production capacity in some periods, leading to a decrease in demand. In the aquaculture industry, affected by the unfavorable weather in the fourth quarter of 2024, the stock volume decreased year - on - year, and the peak - season demand was lower than expected. In terms of industrial consumption, the deep - processing industry of soybean meal has developed steadily, and the demand in the fields of protein feed and food additives has increased by about 3%, but the proportion is still less than 5%, having a limited impact on the overall demand. The downstream procurement model is significantly affected by the fluctuations in Sino - US trade costs, showing the characteristics of "mainly meeting rigid demand and making long - term arrangements". When the US soybean tariff is high and the import cost is uncertain, feed enterprises mainly purchase soybean meal produced from Brazilian soybeans and replenish inventory on a rolling basis [21]. 3.3 Impact Analysis of Sino - US Trade Cooperation on the Soybean Meal Market - **2025 Sino - US Soybean Trade Review**: In 2025, Sino - US soybean trade was in a state of "low - intensity implementation under the agreement framework". The annual export volume of US soybeans to China was about 12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%, and only 60% of the annual agreement target was completed. This was mainly restricted by three factors: First, the 13% tariff rate remained unchanged, resulting in the arrival cost of US soybeans being 180 - 220 yuan per ton higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit. Second, the enthusiasm for commercial procurement was insufficient. Private oil mills were unable to participate in US soybean imports due to losses in import crushing profit. Third, there were issues with logistics and customs clearance efficiency. For some batches of purchases, the arrival cycle was 7 - 10 days longer than that of Brazilian soybeans due to differences in port customs clearance procedures. In terms of the import structure, US soybean imports were mainly concentrated in large - scale state - owned trade enterprises, accounting for more than 90%, and the proportion of private oil mill imports was less than 10%. The import periods were concentrated in March - April and October - November, corresponding to the low domestic soybean inventory and the agreement implementation window period respectively. Trade data shows that in 2025, among China's soybean import sources, the proportion of US soybeans was 10.6%, a significant decrease from 35% in 2017, while the proportion of Brazilian soybeans increased to 78%, forming a pattern of "dominated by Brazil, supplemented by the US" [24]. - **Core Variables of Trade Policy**: The core policy constraint in current Sino - US soybean trade is the tariff rate. US soybeans exported to China are subject to a 13% most - favored - nation tariff rate, while Brazilian soybeans enjoy relevant preferential policies in the South American Free Trade Area, with an actual effective tariff rate of 3%. In the detailed rules for the 2026 grain import tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in October 2025, soybeans were not included in the exclusive quota management, and the current tariff policy was continued, indicating that the probability of short - term tariff adjustment is low, but there is still room for marginal policy relaxation. In terms of the quota mechanism, the 2026 grain import tariff quota mainly covers wheat, corn, and rice, and there is no exclusive quota limit for soybean imports. However, state - owned trade enterprises still dominate US soybean imports. Private and foreign - funded oil mills need to purchase through market - based channels. Coupled with the tariff cost, the competitiveness of US soybeans in the domestic market continues to be weaker than that of Brazilian soybeans. The core impact path of trade policy is "tariff rate → import cost → crushing profit → soybean meal supply → price elasticity". In 2025, due to the high - level tariff, the import cost of US soybeans remained high, resulting in the domestic soybean meal market relying more on South American soybeans for supply, and the price fluctuations were highly correlated with the production and export rhythm of South America [25]. - **Transmission Effect of Trade Cooperation on the Market**: In terms of price transmission, changes in Sino - US trade policies affect the import cost of US soybeans, change the domestic soybean supply structure, and then transmit to the soybean meal price. In March and October 2025, two trade negotiation rumors both triggered fluctuations in the soybean meal futures market, with a fluctuation range of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, reflecting the market's sensitivity to marginal changes in trade policies. In terms of cost transmission, for every 1 - percentage - point decrease in the US soybean tariff, the domestic soybean import cost can be reduced by 30 - 40 yuan per ton, and the corresponding soybean meal cost can be reduced by 50 - 60 yuan per ton. If the tariff is reduced to the benchmark rate of 3%, US soybeans will regain the cost advantage, and it is expected that their export proportion to China will rise to over 20% [26

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report In the 2024 - 25 season, global cotton demand grew steadily driven by China and the US, but the significant increase in production led to weak prices. In the domestic market, due to a sharp reduction in imports, the spot market was tight, prices were relatively firm, and the basis was high with a large gap between domestic and international prices. In the 2025 - 26 season, global production will continue to grow, while the demand side has uncertainties as China's economy is expected to recover but the US economy is uncertain. Considering the tight domestic spot market, cotton prices are expected to remain in a volatile and slightly upward - trending pattern next year [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factor Analysis - **Gradual recovery of social retail data**: From January to October 2025, China's social consumer goods retail market showed stable growth, structural optimization, and urban - rural coordination. The total retail sales from January to October reached 4.12169 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. With policy and technological support, the annual total is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan [4][7]. - **Relatively large pressure on price levels**: In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, moderately recovering" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then decreased in November (down 0.3% month - on - month), but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. In 2026, prices are expected to rise moderately [8][11]. - **Expected steady recovery of the macro - economy**: With policy changes, the macro - economy is expected to show a steady recovery. On the supply side, measures include increasing high - quality service supply and reducing over - capacity. On the demand side, external demand from the US and Europe is expected to be stable, and domestic demand potential lies in service consumption [12][13]. - **Strong resilience of the US economy**: In November, the US PMI was supported by the service sector, with manufacturing declining, consumer spending slowing, and corporate investment to be further restored. The third - quarter GDP growth rate was 3.9% quarter - on - quarter annualized. The employment market showed some signs of recovery, but there were still risks of layoffs. The market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut fluctuated greatly [14][21]. 3.2 Cotton Supply Analysis - **Slightly loose global supply - demand balance**: According to the USDA's November report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, an increase of 2.0% from September; consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, an increase of 0.04%; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, an increase of 3.8%. The ending inventory has reached a recent high [23]. - **Tight domestic supply - demand situation**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic beginning inventory is 6.16 million tons, and the production is 7.42 million tons. The total demand is expected to be 8.45 million tons, with the ending inventory decreasing to 6.33 million tons. The domestic market is relatively tight due to reduced imports and stable consumption [25]. - **Tight commercial and industrial inventories**: As of November 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 3.6397 million tons, an increase of 24.2% from the end of October but 5.31% lower than the same period last year. The industrial inventory was 931,400 tons, an increase of 59,400 tons year - on - year. The overall inventory is still limited [26]. 3.3 Cotton Spinning Consumption Analysis - **Strong US consumption**: From January to August 2025, the US textile and clothing imports increased by 4.43% in volume and 1.47% in value year - on - year. The cotton product imports increased by 3.83% in volume and 4.66% in value. In September, the retail sales of clothing and accessories increased by 6.65% year - on - year [31]. - **Export performance with high - then - low trend**: In October 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59%. From January to October, the exports were 243.936 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%. The export situation was better in the first half of the year [34]. - **Steady growth of domestic demand**: In October 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles were 147.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1205.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [38]. 3.4 Main Concerns - **Changes in Xinjiang cotton planting policy**: The continuous increase in Xinjiang's cotton planting area and production has put pressure on the supply - demand balance and increased subsidy costs. The direct subsidy policy is likely to be adjusted, and there may be other policies to adjust the planting area [43]. - **Changes in the RMB exchange rate**: With the depreciation of the US dollar and the strength of China's manufacturing, the RMB is appreciating, which may bring pressure on textile and clothing exports [44]. - **Sustainability of US consumption**: Although the US textile and clothing consumption has been strong, there are concerns about the US economy due to weak employment data and PMI. However, the Fed's interest - rate cuts may support the economy [45]. 3.5 Market Outlook In 2026, the global cotton market is expected to see both supply and demand increase. The domestic spot market will remain tight. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and China's economic recovery, cotton prices are expected to be volatile and slightly upward - trending, but attention should be paid to policy, exchange - rate, and consumption changes [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will be further exacerbated in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream trading and processing links to the upstream raw sheet production and supply end, and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will be greater, with small production lines of around 600 tons per day likely to be shut down. The daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction, and without large - scale inventory reduction, the spot price has limited room for improvement [1][33][40]. - In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs of glass production lines and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but it is difficult to bottom - fish. The annual futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Trend Review - In 2025, the glass market showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the futures weighted fluctuating between 958 - 1,470 yuan/ton. The overall supply exceeded demand, and high inventories in the mid - upstream suppressed the spot price and affected the futures rebound. Policies such as "Supply - side 2.0" and "Anti - involution" temporarily boosted the market, but the market sentiment weakened after the macro - meetings, and the market returned to the weak fundamentals [6]. - At the beginning of the year, the rescue of Vanke by the Shenzhen government and the rumored new energy - consumption restriction policy boosted the price. However, concerns about downstream demand due to the poor resumption of work at construction sites and insufficient downstream orders led to a setback in the price increase. In February, high inventory in Hubei led to price cuts, and the failure of policy expectations and the impact of international factors caused the futures to decline in the first half of the year. In July, policy expectations drove a short - term rise, but subsequent market sentiment cooling led to a sharp correction. In October, the traditional peak - season demand was disappointing, and the market turned down again. Near the end of the year, cold - repairs of production lines slightly pushed up the price, but the upward space of near - month contracts was limited [6][8]. 3.2 2025 Glass Supply and Demand Review and Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Review and Analysis - From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of flat glass in China was 805 million weight boxes, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The daily melting volume remained stable below 160,000 tons. There were 5 newly - ignited production lines with a total new daily melting volume of 3,610 tons, 17复产 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 12,100 tons, and 28 cold - repaired or shut - down production lines with a total daily melting volume of 18,370 tons. As of early December, the daily melting volume was 156,155 tons per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year and 1.8% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.2 Demand Review and Analysis - **Deep - processing demand**: From January to October 2025, the output of tempered glass decreased by 6.8%, and the average operating rate of low - e was 44.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Mid - stream glass processing plants had a cold business due to factors such as tight funds, lack of demand, and the risk of business closures. Mid - stream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the active purchasing times corresponded to the low - price intervals of the spot [17]. - **Terminal demand**: The real - estate data continued to deteriorate in 2025. Although there was a slight improvement in sales in the first half of the year and in construction and completion indicators in the second half, real - estate development investment continued to weaken. In the automotive industry, production and sales increased rapidly due to policies and market factors, and new - energy vehicles became the mainstream in October [20]. 3.2.3 Inventory Review and Analysis - The inventory in the Shahe area remained similar to that of last year, while the inventory in the central China region increased rapidly, with Hubei becoming a price depression. The national factory inventory was generally at a high level of 60 - 70 million weight boxes. Although the inventory decreased in July due to the actions of futures - cash merchants, the social inventory increased in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in the spot and futures prices [23]. 3.3 2026 Glass Supply and Demand Forecast 3.3.1 Supply Forecast - In 2025, the average daily melting volume was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons year - on - year, while the visible inventory of national factories was basically the same as last year, and the invisible social inventory increased significantly. In 2026, the pressure for cold - repairs of production lines will be greater, mainly shutting down small production lines of around 600 tons per day. It is predicted that the daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction. There are 4 potential newly - ignited production lines with a total design capacity of 3,700 tons per day, 5 potential复产 production lines with a total capacity of 3,450 tons per day, and 15 potential cold - repaired production lines with a total capacity of 9,900 tons per day [30]. 3.3.2 Demand Forecast - Since the new construction area has been declining by more than 20% annually since 2022, the demand at the real - estate completion end will continue to decline. The supply - demand mismatch in the glass industry has spread from the real - estate end to the mid - stream trading and processing links. In 2026, the contradiction will further worsen, and the overall demand for glass will still be insufficient, despite the increasing demand for some products such as second - hand housing decoration glass, automotive glass, and electronic ultra - thin glass [33]. 3.3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data from November 2025 to February 2026E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [40]. 3.4 Summary - **Supply - demand contradiction and capacity clearance**: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will continue to worsen in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream to the upstream and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise without a significant reduction in inventory [40]. - **Short - term opportunities and overall trend**: In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but the overall futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]