Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall supply-demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply and demand pressures and price trends. For example, the pig price is under pressure in the short and long term, the egg price is under pressure in the short and medium term but may ease in the long term, and the price trends of various oils and fats are also affected by multiple factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On June 10, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and other regions were stable with a slight increase. The short - term pig price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure due to large supply. The 07, 09, and 11 contracts of the futures are recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - On June 10, the egg prices in Shandong and Beijing were stable. In the short term, the egg price has some support but is under pressure due to seasonal factors. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [2]. Oils and Fats - On June 9, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. Palm oil's export data improved in May, and the inventory accumulation speed in Malaysia slowed down, but the long - term accumulation trend remains. Soybean oil is affected by policies and fundamental factors, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. Rapeseed oil is affected by factors such as Canada's supply and China - Canada relations. The overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in June and may rebound from the third quarter [4][5][6]. Bean Meal - On June 9, the domestic bean meal futures price rose. In the short term, the price is affected by US soybean weather, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. In the long term, the price is expected to be stable with an upward trend due to cost and weather factors. The M2509 contract is recommended to go long at low levels [8]. Corn - On June 9, the corn prices in some regions were stable with a slight increase. In the short term, the corn price has support due to supply - demand game. In the long term, the price has an upward drive but the upward space is limited. The 07 contract is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range, and the 7 - 9 spread arbitrage is recommended [9]. Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products on June 9, including CBOT soybeans, bean meal, corn, etc., providing a reference for the market situation [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Cotton is expected to oscillate. In the short - and medium - term, the futures price will continue to oscillate before the tariff negotiations. In the long - term, the forward trend may diverge, depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs. PTA is likely to face pressure. As macro - level benefits are digested and the supply - demand situation weakens, it may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Ethylene glycol will trade in a range. Although there is support from supply - demand, the upward movement is restricted. Short - fiber has bottom support. Despite possible further decline in processing fees, the supply may decrease, limiting the downside. Sugar is in a weak oscillation. International and domestic factors are mixed, and the price will maintain a weak oscillation. Apples will oscillate. With the impact of seasonal fruits, the price will stay around 7500 [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Brief Views Cotton - Macro factors include concerns about the US Treasury bond maturity in June, domestic macro - level favorable policies, changes in Sino - US relations, the European Central Bank's interest - rate cut, and the net short position of CFTC funds. Fundamentally, the domestic commercial inventory is tight this year, which supports the 09 contract. The probability of a global bumper harvest in the new season is increasing. The consumption side is variable, depending on the US attitude towards tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut time. In the short - and medium - term, the market is waiting for the negotiation results, and the 07 contract's warehouse receipts may shift to the 09 contract. It is expected to oscillate between 13300 - 13625 next week, and attention should be paid to the price decline in July and August and the low point in the 12000 - 12500 range. In the long - term, the forward trend depends on the tariff attitude [1]. PTA - Due to geopolitical tensions and reduced Canadian oil production, international oil prices have risen. The PTA spot price has decreased. The domestic weak macro - level sentiment, weakening industrial supply - demand, and the weakening of the chemical sector have led to the weakening of the absolute price and the loosening of the spot basis. The PTA device's operating rate has increased, while the polyester production and sales rate has slightly decreased. With the digestion of macro - level benefits and the high spot basis, the PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - The international oil price decline has led to a decrease in the cost of ethylene glycol. The domestic production start - up has recovered, and the import arrival is low. Although the demand side has a high operating rate, the downstream polyester's cautious inventory replenishment restricts the upward movement of ethylene glycol [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. The short - fiber market may oscillate at a high level next week. However, due to poor downstream transmission, the processing fees may continue to decline. With some enterprises starting to reduce production, the downside space is limited [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern part of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new season, there is still an expectation of increased production. In addition, the growth prospects of sugar crops in major producing countries such as India have improved, putting pressure on the futures price. Domestically, factors are mixed. The fast sales speed this season, the peak summer consumption season, and the control of syrup and premixed powder imports support the price, but continuous rainfall in Guangxi, the opening of the import profit window, and future import pressure lead to a weak oscillation of the sugar price [5]. Apple - The apple market is stable. The new - season apple bagging work continues in the producing areas. The trading atmosphere of in - warehouse goods is average, and the shipment is slow. The sales in the consumer market are average, affected by seasonal fruits. With the low inventory in the main producing areas and the approach of the seasonal off - season, the price will oscillate around 7500 [5]. 2. Macro Key Information - On June 9 and 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by energy prices. The PPI was still at a low level, but there were positive changes in some areas [8]. 3. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval decreased, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the restart of some devices [11]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China decreased, and the weekly output also decreased, with both integrated and coal - based production showing declines [11]. Short - fiber - By the end of May, the monthly output of domestic polyester short - fiber increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. However, the cost was still stronger than the short - fiber price, and the processing fees continued to decline [11]. Sugar - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports decreased year - on - year. As of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports remained the same as last week, but the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Guangdong's sugar production and sales increased, and the industrial inventory was zero [11][13][14]. Apple - As of June 4, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas decreased, and the shipment speed slowed down compared with last week. The prices in Shaanxi and Shandong producing areas are provided [14]. 4. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, capacity utilization rates, inventory changes, and other data of cotton, PTA, ethylene glycol, sugar, and apples [21][24][27][31][39][41].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with limited upside and downside potential due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions, despite weakening downstream consumption [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to the weakening US economy, increased tariffs, and the approaching off - season, despite the current strong de - stocking of aluminum ingots and bars [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - to - long term due to supply overcapacity, although cost support limits the downside [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Category 1. Base Metals - **Copper**: As of June 9, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.13% to 78,910 yuan/ton. Tariffs and Sino - US leader phone calls bring positive expectations, but downstream consumption is weakening. Social inventory is low and stable, and the upside and downside of copper prices are limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 9, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.20% to 20,025 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect imports in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and aluminum downstream开工率 is decreasing. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][4]. - **Nickel**: As of June 9, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.47% to 122,710 yuan/ton. There are supply shortages in nickel mines, and the nickel industry has over - capacity. Cost support limits the downside, but prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Tin**: As of June 9, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.31% to 263,740 yuan/ton. Tin ore supply is improving, but the improvement is limited. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [6]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Spot market transactions are light, with holders holding firm on prices and downstream buyers making small - quantity purchases on dips. Traders are waiting for negotiation results and inventory inflection points [7]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. Holders are more willing to sell, but traders are cautious [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot market trading volume has increased slightly. Holders lower premiums to stimulate sales, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, but macro uncertainties limit restocking [10][11]. - **Lead**: Spot market trading is light, with traders focusing on selling and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Spot market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases and trading mainly among traders [14][15]. - **Tin**: Spot market transactions are light due to high prices [16]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increased, while aluminum and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **LME**: Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [18].

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and treasury bonds are recommended for bottom - up allocation and are expected to strengthen in a fluctuating manner [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation; coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; aluminum is recommended for short - selling with a light position; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][10] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to fluctuate weakly; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][19] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner; apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][35] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360]; soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips; oils are recommended for short - selling on rallies [1][39] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading strategies for various futures products based on their market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - factors. It points out that different futures markets show different trends due to factors such as economic data, policy changes, seasonal demand, and cost fluctuations. For example, the stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", while the bond market is in a path of sentiment repair. In the commodity market, some products are affected by supply - demand imbalances, and some are influenced by external factors such as tariffs and international trade relations [1][5] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a differentiated performance on Monday. The CSI 1000 index futures were the most active, while the trading volume of the SSE 50 was low. The market presents a pattern of "strong small - cap, stable large - cap", and the overall trend is expected to be fluctuating with an upward bias [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market sentiment continued to recover on Monday. Although the intraday market fluctuated, the bulls were dominant. Positive factors are resonating, but the trade talks may boost risk appetite, and the interest rate decline may have some reasonable pull - backs [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The fundamental supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to factors such as the decline in demand and the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies [7] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore futures price fluctuated on Monday. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is mainly affected by macro - news. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is recommended to observe [7] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price center may continue to move down. The coke market's fundamentals are also loose, and the price is expected to continue to be weak in the short term [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The impact of tariffs on copper prices has increased again, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range. Although the supply is high, the low inventory and supply disruptions still support the price, but the weakening downstream consumption restricts the upward space [10] - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply in Guinea is disturbed, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected to increase. However, due to factors such as the decline in downstream demand and the increase in tariffs, the short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [12] - **Nickel**: The nickel market has a pattern of high cost and oversupply in the medium - long term. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to observe or short - sell on rallies [14] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is affected by tariffs. It is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [16] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tariff policies, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to trade within a range [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC has a pattern of weak demand and high supply. Although the inventory has decreased recently, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20] - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market has a situation of strong current situation and weak expectation. In June, there are many overhauls, but the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to focus on factors such as alumina production and inventory [22] - **Styrene**: The styrene market has a pattern of high valuation and loose supply - demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies, focusing on factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24] - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a situation of limited raw material price decline space and weak demand. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on macro - news [25] - **Urea**: The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as compound fertilizer production and urea inventory [28] - **Methanol**: The methanol market has a pattern of high supply and limited demand support. It is expected to run weakly, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as macro - changes and olefin plant operations [30] - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin market has a pattern of increasing supply pressure and entering the traditional off - season of demand. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is necessary to focus on factors such as downstream demand and domestic policies [31] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has a pattern of increasing supply and weak downstream demand. The 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but due to the warming of Sino - US relations, the cotton price is expected to rebound in a fluctuating manner [35] - **Apples**: The apple market has a stable price, and it is expected to fluctuate within a high - level range due to low inventory [36] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure and is expected to fluctuate within a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The pig market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short - sell on rallies [39] - **Eggs**: The egg market has a pattern of sufficient supply and seasonal weakening of demand. The short - term price support is weak, and different contracts have different trading strategies [40] - **Corn**: The corn market has a pattern of short - term supply - demand game and long - term tightening of supply - demand. It is recommended to operate within a high - level range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - **Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market is affected by US soybean weather and import costs. The short - term price is restricted by supply increase, while the long - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [43] - **Oils**: The oil market has a pattern of mixed long - and short - term factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and rebound from the third quarter. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio [49]

股指或震荡偏强，国债观 望为主 2025-06-09 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：周五沪深300股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，上证50股指主力合约期货跌0.09%，中证 500股指主力合约期货跌0.02%，中证1000股指主力合约期货跌0.01%。 p 核心观点：美国5月非农好于预期，特朗普仍呼吁降息1个百分点，指责鲍威尔让美国"损失惨重" ，并 称将很快公布下一任美联储主席人选。国务院副总理何立峰于6月8-13日访问英国，其间，与美方举行 中美经贸磋商机制首次会议。中国商务部就中重稀土出口管制措施答记者问：实施出口管制符合国际通 行做法，已依法批准一定数量的合规申请。中美经贸磋商机制首次会议将举行，股指或震荡偏强运行。 p 技术分析：K ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. economic data shows resilience recently, with the May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations, the April inflation data below expectations, and the Fed maintaining policy independence. Gold prices are in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The strong employment data and existing inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September but has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Considering the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeding expectations and the market lowering the expected rate - cut amplitude, the price of U.S. gold slightly corrected. As of last Friday, U.S. gold closed at $3331 per ounce, up 0.5% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3390, and the lower support level is $3280 [6]. - The price of U.S. silver rose to catch up. As of last Friday, it had a weekly increase of 9.2%, closing at $36.13 per ounce. The lower support level is $34.5, and the upper resistance level is $37 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the Fed maintained policy independence, the April inflation data was below expectations, and recent U.S. economic data showed resilience, leading to an oscillatory adjustment of gold prices. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. The Fed's May FOMC meeting maintained a hawkish stance, and Powell said that tariffs might have a lasting impact on inflation and that the Fed needs to wait for the situation to become clear before considering rate cuts. The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected in April. The market expects the Fed to cut rates in September and has lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude. Due to the repeated expectations of U.S. tariff policies and market concerns about the U.S. fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, prices are expected to continue oscillating and adjusting, with a mid - term bullish outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data to be released on Wednesday [10]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators There is no specific text - based summary information provided in the content, only some data charts are presented. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week | Economic Indicator | Announced Value | Expected Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | U.S. May non - farm payrolls change, seasonally adjusted (in millions) | 13.9 | 13 | 14.7 | | U.S. May unemployment rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | | U.S. May ADP employment change (in millions) | 3.7 | 11 | 6.2 | | U.S. April durable goods orders monthly rate revision (%) | - 6.3 | - | - 6.3 | [20] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The U.S. May non - farm payrolls increased by 1.39 million, higher than the expected 1.3 million, and the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%. However, the average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month - on - month, higher than expected and the previous value, indicating an upward risk of inflation. The strong employment data and inflation risks provide policy space for the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. After the release of the non - farm data, the market lowered the expected rate - cut amplitude, expecting the annual rate - cut to be less than 50 basis points [21]. - The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points as expected but hinted that its one - year easing cycle would pause after the inflation rate finally reached the central bank's 2% target. Since last June, the ECB has cut rates eight times. Currently, the inflation rate in the eurozone is slightly below 2%, and ECB President Lagarde said the bank is in a "good position," leading investors to believe that even if the easing policy is not ended, rate cuts will pause [21]. - Representatives of the U.S. and the EU said that the bilateral trade negotiations are progressing rapidly. The new U.S. metal tariffs have disrupted the global economy again, increasing the urgency of the negotiations. U.S. President Trump's measure to double the import tariffs on steel and aluminum took effect on Wednesday. On the same day, the U.S. asked its trading partners to submit "best offers" to avoid other punitive tariffs from taking effect in July [21]. 3.6 Inventory - For gold, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 20,897.20 kg to 1,185,582.5 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 600 kg to 17,847 kg. - For silver, this week, Comex inventory decreased by 40,062.53 kg to 15,387,521.69 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 51,055 kg to 1,117,940 kg [12][26]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of June 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 191,433 contracts, an increase of 14,371 contracts from last week. - As of June 3, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 59,230 contracts, an increase of 8,616 contracts from last week [12][31]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (June 11) at 20:30, the U.S. May year - on - year inflation data will be released. - On Thursday (June 12) at 20:30, the U.S. May PPI year - on - year data and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be announced. - On Friday (June 13) at 22:00, the preliminary value of the U.S. June University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [33].

铜周报：基本面支撑，铜价仍存韧性 2025-6-9 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 供给端：当前铜矿加工费处于历史低位，铜矿供应持续偏紧。截至6月6日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-43美元/吨，4月底以来进口铜精 矿粗炼费（TC）持续位于持稳于-43美元/吨左右。5月电解铜产量113.83万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加12.86%，国内精炼铜产量 稳定增加。 需求端：旺季过后下游需求转淡，截至6月5日，SMM电解铜制杆周度开工率环比下滑至74.87%，环比下滑1.03个百分点，铜价运 行依然坚挺，压制下游备货欲望。淡季来临市场预期悲观，下游铜管、铜板带开工率下滑，铜箔企业开工率小幅增长。 库存：截至6月6日，上海期货交易所铜库存10.74万吨，周环比1.52%。截止6月5日，国内铜社会库存14.88万吨，较节前5月29日 累库1.01万吨，环比 ...

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