1. Investment Ratings The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The current situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing unique supply - demand dynamics and price trends. The overall market is in a state of multi - factor influence, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short to medium term [1][2][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Pig - **Short - term**: On June 12, the national pig price showed a pattern of decline in the north and stability in the south. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation, with the 07 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 12800 - 13000; the 09 contract having a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13100 - 13300; the 11 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13200. The strategy is to wait for a rebound to the pressure level and then short [1]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: From June to September 2024, the supply is increasing, and in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is still large, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. 3.2. Egg - **Short - term**: As the rainy season approaches, egg demand seasonally weakens, and the supply is relatively sufficient, so the egg price support is insufficient. The 08 and 09 contracts are mainly treated as bearish, waiting for a rebound to short. The 08 contract should focus on the 3650 - 3750 pressure level, and the 09 contract on the 3770 - 3820 pressure level [2]. - **Medium - term**: From July to August 2025, there will be more newly - opened laying hens, and the long - term supply increase trend may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be alleviated, and attention should be paid to the elimination and chicken disease situations in the third quarter [2]. 3.3. Oil - **Palm oil**: In the short term, the 08 contract is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and is expected to fluctuate in the 3700 - 3800 range. In the long run, the trend of inventory accumulation in Malaysia remains unchanged, and it is difficult to provide continuous upward momentum [5]. - **Soybean oil**: In the short term, the 07 contract of US soybeans is expected to oscillate widely in the 1030 - 1080 range. In China, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. In the long run, the price decline is limited due to factors such as the tightening of new - crop soybean supply [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: ICE rapeseed is expected to rise moderately in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil price is supported by the expectation of supply tightening after June. The inventory is currently at a historically high level, but it is expected to decrease in the far - month [7]. - **Overall**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. From the third quarter, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to oscillate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively. Attention can be paid to the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio [7][8]. 3.4. Soybean Meal - **Short - term**: US soybeans are affected by weather, and the price is expected to be strong. In China, from June to August, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal will increase, which will limit the increase of near - month contracts and spot prices [8]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The cost increases and the influence of weather disturbances make the price trend stable and strong. The M2509 contract is mainly long on dips, and attention should be paid to the support performance at 2950 - 2980 [8]. 3.5. Corn - **Short - term**: The market supply - demand game intensifies, and the corn price has support. The spot is strong, and the futures price oscillates [9]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The supply - demand relationship tightens marginally, which drives the price up, but the upward space is limited by substitutes. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2280 - 2400), and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. 3.6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the trading prices and price changes of various products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to maintain high - level oscillations due to factors such as the uncertain outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, weak domestic economic data, the transition from peak season to off - season, and low inventory [1]. - Aluminum prices are affected by the Sino - US talks and the approaching off - season. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the Sino - US talks [2]. - Nickel is expected to experience weak oscillations in the medium - to - long term due to cost support and supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 11, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.2% to 79,290 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough, but the US side is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, which has led to a halving of LME copper inventory in the past three months. The domestic spot market has low downstream consumption, low social inventory, and a narrowing BACK spread. The negative low level of copper ore smelting TC exerts continuous pressure on the supply outlook [1]. Aluminum - As of June 11, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 1.25% to 20,250 yuan/ton. Mining disruptions in Guinea will impact the import volume of bauxite in July. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased. The 232 steel and aluminum tariffs in the US have increased, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging [2]. Nickel - As of June 11, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.11% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The US PMI is expanding, and the euro - zone PMI is contracting. Domestically, the LPR has been lowered. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron is in a loss state. The refined nickel has a surplus, and the LME inventory has increased. The demand for stainless steel is average, and the price of nickel sulfate is pushed up by cost but has limited demand [3][5]. Tin - As of June 11, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.69% to 265,530 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and in April, tin concentrate imports increased. The supply of tin ore is gradually improving, and the inventory has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the US tariff policy may suppress downstream demand [6]. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose slightly. Sellers were reluctant to cut prices, and buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in a stalemate in the market [7]. Aluminum - Spot aluminum market transactions improved. Sellers were reluctant to sell due to low inventory, and buyers were less willing to chase up prices. Long - term orders supported trading activity, and the market showed a situation of more buying than selling in the afternoon [8]. Alumina - Spot market transactions were light. Sellers maintained a price - holding strategy, while buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in poor transactions [9]. Zinc - Spot zinc market prices fell. Sellers were forced to cut prices, and buyers only made purchases to meet rigid demand, with low overall purchasing willingness [10]. Lead - Spot lead market prices rose slightly. Traders' discount quotes narrowed, and they were waiting for price corrections to replenish inventory. Recycled lead enterprises were more willing to sell, and transactions were concentrated on low - priced goods [11][12]. Nickel - Spot nickel market prices fell. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [13]. Tin - Spot tin market prices rose. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 119,450 tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 47,468 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 357,600 tons. SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,075 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 132,575 tons. SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,597 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 273,525 tons. SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 72 tons to 21,113 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 618 tons to 197,508 tons. SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 56 tons to 6,810 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,365 tons [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the overall fundamentals of domestic and international oils are mixed. The prices in June are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The inventories of soybean and palm oils are expected to increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will remain high, forcing the basis of oils to be weak. In the long - term, starting from July, due to the decrease in the sown area of new - season soybeans and rapeseeds in North America and possible weather speculation, the prices of oils are expected to stop falling and rebound from the third quarter. [2][48] - For trading strategies, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively, and operate within these ranges. For arbitrage, the oil - meal ratios of domestic soybean and rapeseed are at historical highs, and summer is the off - season for oil consumption. One can focus on the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio of the 09 contracts of soybean and rapeseed oils. [2][48] 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Palm Oil - **Short - term Performance and Reasons**: Since May, domestic and international palm oils have been relatively resistant to decline. In Malaysia, the May MPOB report showed that production and exports continued to rise, but the production increase was limited while exports had double - digit growth, resulting in the ending inventory being only 1.99 million tons, less than the expected 2 million tons. In June, exports remained strong, with a 8.1 - 32.69% month - on - month increase from June 1 - 10, and production also continued to recover. In Indonesia, in March, production and demand both increased, but exports and domestic consumption increased more than production, causing the ending inventory to drop to 2.04 million tons. The limited inventory pressure in the producing areas is the main reason for the resistant decline of palm oil. [5][6] - **Future Influencing Factors**: India's palm oil import demand and Indonesia's B40 policy will also hinder the inventory accumulation in the producing areas. India's low inventory and the reduction of import taxes will increase its palm oil imports. Although Indonesia's B40 policy has not been fully implemented, it has promoted the year - on - year growth of palm oil consumption for biodiesel. [12] - **Domestic Situation**: From late April to early May, China made a large number of purchases, and the palm oil arrivals in May and June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons. The inventory in June has a strong rebound expectation. As of the week of June 6, the domestic palm oil inventory has rebounded to 372,600 tons. However, the import profit has turned negative since late May, and the arrivals from July - September are expected to be much lower, so the supply in the far - month may tighten again. [14] - **Long - term Outlook**: The palm oil production season in Malaysia is expected to last until October. The overall production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 is expected to remain at the same level as last year or increase slightly. Before the inventory in Malaysia reaches its annual high in September - October, the inventory accumulation expectation will continue to put pressure on the price. In the short - term, the price has support and shows a wide - range fluctuation. In the long - term, before September - October, the price is likely to show a weak - range fluctuation. [16][17] Soybean Oil - **Current Market Stage and Price Trend**: Soybean oil is at the end of the transition from the South American market to the North American market. The abundant supply of South American soybeans and the smooth progress of US soybean sowing limit the upward space of soybean - related products, but the tightening of the 2025/2026 US and global soybean supply - demand situation and the uncertain weather in July - August also prevent the price from falling sharply. In June, the price is likely to fluctuate. [18] - **Impact of US Biodiesel Policy**: The new biodiesel policy is generally favorable for the future biodiesel demand of US soybean oil, but there are uncertainties in the degree of benefit and some details. The new RVO for 2026 and the extension of the 45Z tax credit policy are positive, but factors such as Senate review and small - refinery exemptions may have a negative impact. [19] - **Global Soybean Market Fundamentals**: In South America, the 2024/2025 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase, and the export pressure will gradually ease after July. In the US, as of the week of June 8, the sowing progress of 2025/2026 soybeans is faster than the five - year average, but there are potential drought and high - temperature risks in July - August, and the predicted yield also has great uncertainty. The biodiesel demand for US soybean oil is likely to increase year - on - year, but the export situation is uncertain. [20][21] - **Domestic Situation**: Currently, it is the peak period of Brazilian soybean arrivals in China. The soybean arrivals from May - August are expected to be around 10 million tons, and the soybean and soybean oil inventories are expected to increase. However, the purchase of US soybeans in the future is uncertain, and the slow purchase progress for the far - month may lead to supply uncertainty in the third and fourth quarters. [35] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the short - term, soybean oil will continue to fluctuate widely. In the long - term, with the tightening of the new - season global and US soybean supply - demand situation, possible weather speculation, and the decrease in domestic imports, soybean oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the third quarter. [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Short - term Performance and Reasons**: Recently, rapeseed oil has been relatively weak among the three major domestic oils because of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations. The communication between the two countries on June 6 made the market expect that China may relax the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the anti - dumping duties on rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. [39] - **Limitations of Price Decline**: The decline of rapeseed oil price is limited. The tight supply - demand situation of old - season Canadian rapeseed and the lack of import profit in China will restrict the import of Canadian rapeseed in the third quarter. The current inventory of old - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the import profit has been significantly declining since mid - March. [40] - **Domestic Inventory and Supply Situation**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high. As of the week of June 6, it was still 829,000 tons. However, the import of rapeseed is expected to decrease from June, which is expected to help the domestic rapeseed oil inventory start to decline from June - August. [42][43] - **New - Season Situation**: The sowing progress of 2025/2026 rapeseed in Canada is relatively fast, but there are potential drought risks in some areas, and the predicted yield increase is small. The Australian rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is expected to decrease by 6% year - on - year. [43] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the short - term, the decline of rapeseed oil is limited, and the 09 contract has strong support at 9000. In the long - term, before the new - season Canadian rapeseed is harvested in October, the supply of old - season rapeseed is limited. Coupled with possible weather speculation in July - August and domestic rapeseed inventory reduction, rapeseed oil is expected to perform relatively strongly from July. [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside and downside space [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to the progress of China - US dialogue [2] - The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term, with limited downside space due to firm costs [3][5] - The tin price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for interval trading, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.27% to 78,880 yuan/ton. Tariffs and the China - US leaders' call brought positive expectations. The domestic refined copper output remained high, but supply disruptions and low TC supported the price. Social inventory was stable at a low level, consumption declined, and the upside space of the copper price was limited. However, due to low inventory and supply disruptions, the downside space was also limited [1] Aluminum - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.12% to 20,050 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect the arrival volume of imported bauxite in July. Alumina's operating capacity increased, and inventory decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was flat. The downstream开工率 decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] Nickel - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.06% to 121,390 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia was tight, and the price was firm. Nickel - iron had a profit loss, and the demand for stainless steel was average. The refined nickel was in surplus, and the price of nickel sulfate was strong due to cost. The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.21% to 263,420 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and imports and exports changed. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover, and the inventory decreased. The supply of tin ore improved, but the impact of tariffs on downstream consumption needed attention. The tin price is expected to oscillate [6] Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Domestic spot copper prices rose, but high prices suppressed restocking, and transactions were light [7] - Aluminum: Spot aluminum transaction prices fell, and the market was weak, with few transactions [8] - Alumina: Spot prices were stable, trading activity declined, and transactions were restricted [9] - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell, and transactions were light, with low procurement willingness [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices rose, and traders were more willing to hold up prices, with cautious restocking [11][12] - Nickel: Spot nickel prices fell, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand [13] - Tin: Spot tin prices rose, and high - price transactions were light [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc and lead futures warehouse receipts increased [16] - LME: Copper, tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased [16]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡走强 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of energy and chemical products shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, caustic soda to run weakly with oscillations, styrene to be sold short at high prices, rubber to oscillate in the short - term, urea to run weakly, methanol to have limited substantial positive support, polyolefin to oscillate in the short - term, and soda ash to maintain a bearish recommendation for the 01 contract [2][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] Summary by Product PVC - On June 10, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4810 yuan/ton (-6). The long - term demand is low due to the real - estate situation, and exports are restricted. Supply pressure is high in the third quarter. The current inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on the 4850 line pressure [2] Caustic Soda - On June 10, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2324 yuan/ton (+16). Supply has a neutral inventory with high - level operation and new installations expected. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. It is expected to run weakly with oscillations, and the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, with attention on the 2400 line pressure [3] Styrene - On June 10, the main styrene contract was 7346 (+135) yuan/ton. Crude oil has short - term rebounds but mid - term supply - demand relaxation expectations. Pure benzene has high imports and inventory accumulation. Styrene has short - term port de - stocking but mid - term accumulation expectations. It is recommended to sell short at high prices, with attention on the 7400 line pressure [4][5] Rubber - On June 10, rubber prices rebounded and then declined. New rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rates have declined. The market price has increased slightly [6] Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.24% to close at 1678 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level operation, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is limited, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run weakly, with the 09 contract reference range of 1650 - 1850 [7][8] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.26% to close at 2276 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level capacity utilization rate, cost is under pressure, and demand from the olefin industry is okay but traditional demand is weak. Inventory is increasing. The 09 contract reference range is 2180 - 2300 [9] Polyolefin - On June 10, the L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton. Supply has capacity expansion pressure, demand is in the traditional off - season, and PP inventory is accumulating while PE has slight de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 reference range of 6950 - 7100 and the PP2509 reference range of 6850 - 7200 [10][11] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash is weak, prices are falling, and the basis discount has narrowed. Supply is increasing, downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. A bearish recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]

Group 1: Core Views - The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small-cap and stable large-cap". With positive news from the US Commerce Secretary, domestic stock indices may fluctuate strongly [1] - On Tuesday, the bond market continued to fluctuate, with a bullish bias. Fundamentals and other factors are favorable to the bond market in the long run, but the market may experience short-term fluctuations. However, the scope and time of market pullbacks are limited [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, the strategy is to expect a fluctuating and upward trend [2] - For government bonds, the strategy is to allocate on dips [4] Group 3: Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.69%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.89% respectively [6] - The main contracts of 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year government bond futures rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.00% respectively [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests a possible fluctuating trend [7] - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract of government bonds shows a fluctuating trend [10] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3841.00 | -0.69 | 64495 | 112083 | | 2025-06-10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2660.00 | -0.53 | 38481 | 46099 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5718.20 | -0.88 | 52147 | 93852 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6113.80 | -0.89 | 132573 | 158926 | | 2025-06-10 | 10-year Government Bond Continuous | 109.00 | 0.01 | 47942 | 184969 | | 2025-06-10 | 5-year Government Bond Continuous | 106.14 | 0.01 | 47953 | 147190 | | 2025-06-10 | 30-year Government Bond Continuous | 120.16 | 0.07 | 62753 | 103965 | | 2025-06-10 | 2-year Government Bond Continuous | 102.44 | 0.00 | 25053 | 118657 | [12] Group 6: Figures - Figures related to stock index futures include trends, PE ratios, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, basis, basis rate, annualized basis rate, and inter - period spreads [13][17][22][24][26][29][31][33][34] - Figures related to government bond futures include trends, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, trading amount, basis, and spot - futures price difference [37][42][47][49]