Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the next week, funds will cross the month, but the central bank is expected to maintain net injections, potentially reducing the pressure on fund fluctuations. If the central bank provides sufficient support, there is a high probability of a smooth transition across the month, with DR001 likely to fluctuate between 1.35% - 1.55% [1][2]. - In the past week, funds experienced significant frictions due to factors such as the equity market absorbing inter - bank liquidity, large net government bond payments, and the central bank's continuous net withdrawals after the tax period. The tightening of funds was mainly driven by pressures within the banking system [2]. - The maturity pressure of certificates of deposit (CDs) will significantly decrease in the next week, with a maturity scale of only 37.67 billion yuan. If the pressure on the funds eases, CD rates may slightly decline when crossing the month [2]. - In the past week, funds sold off bonds across all varieties, with a rapid shift in sentiment. However, the willingness of allocation - oriented investors such as banks, insurance companies, and wealth management firms to absorb bonds is not weak, suggesting that the current market adjustment may present investment opportunities [3]. Summary by Directory 1 Liquidity Tracking 1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/21 - 7/25), the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net liquidity injection of 10.95 billion yuan, including 20 billion yuan in long - term liquidity and a net withdrawal of 9.05 billion yuan in short - term liquidity. As of 7/25, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 1.66 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the seasonal average [10]. - In the next week (7/28 - 8/1), 1.66 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. Considering the month - end period, the central bank may maintain a small net injection [10]. - In July, the central bank injected a total of 30 billion yuan in long - term liquidity, including 10 billion yuan in net MLF injections and 10 billion yuan each in 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases [11]. 1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the expected net government bond payment was 27.1 billion yuan, with treasury bonds contributing 1.07 billion yuan and local government bonds 26.02 billion yuan. In the next week, the expected net payment is 28.76 billion yuan, with a smaller overall pressure. Treasury bond net payment is expected to be - 2 billion yuan, while local government bonds will contribute 30.76 billion yuan. The net payment pressure will be higher on Tuesday, with a single - day net payment of 12.67 billion yuan [13]. 1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill rates declined significantly. As of 7/25, the 3M direct and transfer discount rates for national - owned banks were 1.25% and 1.10% respectively, down from 1.30% and 1.23% on 7/18. The 6M rates were 0.79% and 0.72% respectively, down from 0.87% and 0.81% on 7/18. Currently, bill rates are still significantly weaker than the seasonal average, indicating slow credit demand recovery [22]. 1.4 Fund Review - In the past week, fund fluctuations increased significantly, with daily frictions intensifying. After the tax period, the central bank continuously withdrew funds. Although the funds were relatively loose on Monday and Tuesday, with DR001 closing at 1.3144% on Tuesday, the situation fluctuated rapidly from Wednesday to Friday. The fund sentiment index reached a maximum of 58 on Thursday morning and 57 on Friday morning, but funds eased significantly in the late afternoon on Thursday and after 10 am on Friday [24]. - Inter - bank fund price fluctuations were larger than those in the exchange market, and the 7 - day fund price fluctuations were greater than overnight. On 7/25, DR001 rose 6.08bps to 1.52%, DR007 rose 14.56bps to 1.65%, R001 rose 6.41bps to 1.55%, and R007 rose 18.65bps to 1.69% [29]. - The term spread widened, and the market spread narrowed. Compared to 7/18, on 7/25, the R007 - R001 spread rose 12.24bps to 14.15bps, the R007 - DR007 spread rose 4.09bps to 4.14bps, and the GC007 - R007 spread fell 4.45bps to - 5.67bps [30]. - The proportion of overnight fund transactions in the inter - bank market decreased significantly as the month - end approached. The net lending of the banking system decreased significantly, with large banks experiencing the most significant decline. The net borrowing demand of core non - bank institutions also decreased significantly, while the net lending of core non - bank net lenders increased [35][38]. 1.5 Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/21 - 7/27), the total issuance of CDs was 51.67 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 55.98 billion yuan. The net financing scale declined significantly. As of 7/27, the cumulative net financing of CDs for the year was 1.32 trillion yuan [50]. - The issuance scale of CDs by different entities in the past week ranked as follows: city commercial banks (17.48 billion yuan)> state - owned banks (16.38 billion yuan)> joint - stock banks (12.92 billion yuan)> rural commercial banks (4.15 billion yuan). The weighted issuance term of CDs decreased to 0.61 years from 0.69 years last week [50]. - The issuance rates of CDs for national - owned and joint - stock banks increased across all tenors. The secondary - market CD yields also adjusted significantly. On 7/25, the 1 - year AAA CD yield rose 5.75bps to 1.6750% compared to 7/18 [53]. - In the next four weeks, the CD maturities will be 37.67 billion yuan (7/23 - 8/3), 59.82 billion yuan (8/4 - 8/10), 90.71 billion yuan (8/11 - 8/17), and 79.47 billion yuan (8/18 - 8/24) respectively, indicating controllable maturity pressure. In the next week, the maturity pressure will be higher on Tuesday and Wednesday [55]. 2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - Large banks slightly increased their purchases of short - term treasury bonds. In the past week, funds net sold 20.76 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds, while rural commercial banks net bought 25.73 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds [60]. - Wealth management subsidiaries and other products were the main buyers of CDs, while city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, funds, and securities firms were the main sellers [60]. - Funds quickly switched from buying to selling credit bonds, while the buying power of other institutions such as wealth management firms remained relatively stable. Insurance companies were the main buyers of credit bonds with a maturity of over 5 years [60]. - Funds' net selling of secondary - tier bonds also increased rapidly. For secondary - tier bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, funds switched to large - scale net selling on Friday, with a net selling of 370 million yuan in the past week. For 2 - 5 - year secondary - tier bonds, funds' demand also declined significantly [60]. 2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds fluctuated. On 7/25, the 10 - day moving average of the median duration was 4.18 years, slightly higher than 4.13 years on 7/18, but it declined significantly on Friday [62]. - The trading duration of general credit bonds decreased, while that of secondary - tier bonds increased. On 7/25, the 5 - day moving average of the trading duration of urban investment bonds decreased to 2.43 years, and that of industrial bonds decreased to 3.51 years, while the trading duration of secondary - tier bonds increased to 3.16 years [66]. 2.3 Institutional Leverage - The bond market leverage ratio was estimated to be 107.16% in the past week, basically unchanged from last week's 107.04% [68].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company plans to acquire 100% of Daniao Logistics for a cash consideration of 362 million yuan, enhancing its logistics competitiveness [1] - The acquisition will create a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," allowing the company to tap into high-end markets and improve its service offerings [1] - The company is responding to industry trends by accelerating its focus on value rather than price competition, aligning with recent regulatory changes [1] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The company announced its intention to acquire Daniao Logistics, a key player in quality express and reverse logistics services, which operates a network covering nearly 300 cities [1] - Daniao Logistics has established a strong market presence with over 400 million daily transactions and a significant penetration rate in e-commerce platforms [1] Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to fill the company's gap in the quality express segment and leverage Daniao's superior delivery capabilities [1] - The integration will allow the company to optimize its product structure and create differentiated advantages in emerging delivery scenarios [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit, projecting 1.29 billion yuan for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 17.9 times [1] - Revenue is expected to grow from 47.17 billion yuan in 2024 to 55.88 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 18.46% [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次) [3] Core Views - The company is actively engaging in new business ventures and has become a strategic shareholder in multiple high-quality enterprises [2] - A strategic cooperation agreement has been signed with Keton Technology, the general agent of NVIDIA in China, to explore the layout of intelligent computing centers [8] - The company aims to leverage its extensive customer resources to assist Keton Technology in expanding into various sectors, including internet enterprises and AI companies [8] Financial Summary - Projected revenue for 2024 is 4,208.40 million, with a decrease of 20.35% from the previous year, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [3] - Expected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is 288.73 million, showing a significant increase of 134.16% compared to 2024 [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 0.58 in 2024 to 2.33 in 2027 [3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 53.60 in 2024 to 13.47 in 2027, indicating improving valuation over time [3] Basic Data - The closing price of the stock is ¥31.35, with a total market capitalization of 6,609.11 million [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that factors such as anti-involution, stable growth, and the Yajiang Hydropower Station are collectively driving the steel equity market [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,504, with a weekly increase of 7.7% and a year-to-date increase of 19.1% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,450 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 5.5% and a year-to-date increase of 1.2% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.3% and a year-to-date increase of 5% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 926,000 tons, with a weekly change of 0.5% and a year-to-date change of 22% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills for five major products is 409,000 tons, with a weekly change of 1.1% and a year-to-date change of 16% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,794,000 tons, with a weekly change of 0.1% and a year-to-date change of 7% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 900,000 tons [9] - Daily average pig iron production is expected to reach approximately 240,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand measured in ten thousand tons [14]

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises reached CNY 34,365.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%[2] - The profit growth rate slowed down, with June showing a 4.3% year-on-year decline, narrowing the drop by 4.8 percentage points compared to May[2] - The revenue profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.15%, which is 0.22 percentage points lower than the same period last year[2] Group 2: Price and Demand Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June 2025 decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, significantly impacting profit growth[2] - Effective demand remains insufficient, and industrial product prices are low, which continues to drag on profit recovery[3] - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q2 2025 was 74.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from Q1, indicating a low position that hinders cost reduction[2] Group 3: Policy Impact and Sector Performance - The "Two New" policies are showing continued support for profit recovery, particularly benefiting the equipment manufacturing sector[3] - In June, the equipment manufacturing sector's revenue grew by 7.0% year-on-year, with profits increasing by 9.6%, contributing 3.8 percentage points to overall industrial profit growth[4] - High-end equipment manufacturing sectors, such as electronic materials and aircraft manufacturing, saw profit increases of 68.1% and 19.0% respectively[4] Group 4: Inventory and Market Conditions - As of June 2025, the inventory of finished products for industrial enterprises increased by 3.1% year-on-year, reflecting a flattening inventory cycle[9] - The current inventory-to-sales ratio remains high, indicating a willingness among enterprises to reduce inventory despite ongoing pressures[9] - The MPI industrial inventory forward index suggests that the inventory cycle will continue to exhibit a flattening characteristic throughout 2025[9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company has shown steady progress in domestic substitution, with performance growth meeting expectations. In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 63 million yuan, up 42% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 40.4%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points [1] - The product structure indicates significant growth in aramid paper and composite materials, with aramid paper revenue reaching 230 million yuan, a 23% increase, and composite materials revenue soaring by 1185% to 10 million yuan. This growth is attributed to the subsidiary's business in the new energy vehicle sector becoming more established [1] - Domestic revenue reached 190 million yuan, up 34% year-on-year, while export revenue was 52 million yuan, an 11% increase [1] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenue for 2025 to be 532 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 30%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 146 million yuan, reflecting a 45% increase [4] - Earnings per share are projected to be 1.00 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 43 [4] - The company anticipates net profits of 197 million yuan and 250 million yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 32 and 25 [2][4]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

Core Insights - The market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the offshore RMB showing signs of breaking out against the USD. This is expected to create a bullish mid-term outlook for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite Index potentially aiming beyond the previous high of 3674 points set on October 8, 2024 [1][4][54] - Short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to profit-taking, but key support levels such as recent short-term gaps and the 20-day moving average are expected to provide stability [1][4][54] Weekly Market Overview - Major indices collectively rose, with the STAR 50 leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 increased by 1.67%, 1.12%, and 1.69% respectively, while the STAR 50 surged by 4.63% [2][12] - The cyclical sector showed strong performance, with coal, steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, and construction leading the gains, rising by 8.00%, 7.55%, 7.10%, 6.44%, and 6.21% respectively [2][13][53] - Market sentiment improved significantly, with average daily trading volume rising to 1.83 trillion RMB, indicating increased investor activity [2][19] Fund Flow Analysis - The margin trading balance increased significantly to 1.94 trillion RMB, with the proportion of financing purchases rising to 10.56% [2][28] - Stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 4.04 billion RMB, with infrastructure ETFs attracting the most inflow while securities ETFs experienced the largest outflow [2][28] Sector Configuration Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation strategy of "1+1+X," focusing on large financial institutions (banks and brokerages) alongside sectors like military, computing, media, electronics, and new energy [5][56] - In light of increased market risk appetite, a shift from large banks to smaller banks is recommended to enhance portfolio flexibility [5][56] - Continuous investment in brokerage firms is advised to mitigate upward risks, while switching from high-performing stocks to those near their annual moving averages is suggested [5][56]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [3] Core Views - The white liquor sector is experiencing a rebound due to policy catalysts and sector rotation, with a focus on new consumer products represented by "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" and "Da Zhen" [1][17] - The upcoming reporting period for consumer goods is expected to show mixed results, with short-term adjustments in Q2 performance, but long-term growth potential remains [1][29] - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Zhujiang Liquor for white liquor, and Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, and others for consumer goods [1][2][17] Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has shown a positive performance with a 0.95% increase in the index from July 21 to July 25, 2025 [3][4] - Key stocks with notable increases include Tianyoude Liquor (+6.80%), Yingjia Gongjiu (+3.58%), and Zhenjiu Lidu (+3.50%) [4][39] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting leading brands with strong momentum and high dividend yields, suggesting that the current price decline for top liquor companies may be limited [1][17] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is undergoing a structural adjustment, but long-term opportunities remain clear, particularly for trend-aligned stocks [2][29] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stocks that align with new consumption trends, such as quality consumption and emotional value [2][29] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Weidong Delicious, Wancheng Group, New Dairy, and others, with a focus on those showing strong performance and potential for market share growth [2][29] Market Performance - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.69%, with frozen foods and seasoning products leading the gains [2][35] - The report notes that while some sectors like dairy products and other liquors saw declines, the overall market sentiment remains positive for consumer goods [2][35] Key Company Updates - Guizhou Moutai announced the establishment of a new subsidiary with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan [11] - Shanxi Fenjiu launched a new product, Qinghua Fenjiu 30, which has received positive market feedback [12] - Yingjia Gongjiu's new product "Jiu Gui · Zi You Ai" has been well-received, indicating strong consumer interest [14]

Core Insights - The current bond market is expected to show a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to reach a phase upper limit of 1.75%-1.80%. Short-term trading should avoid chasing highs and lows, while long-term allocation may consider grid trading for gradual accumulation [1][2][3] Group 1: Basic Logic and Unexpected Impacts - A framework for bond market analysis is constructed based on the "five bowls of noodles" analysis framework and the first principles of the bond market, integrating fundamental logic for the long term and funding logic for the short term, while also considering unexpected impact factors [1][11] - From February to mid-March, the fundamental outlook was positive while the funding outlook was negative, leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market due to the greater impact of short-term logic [1][12] - Since July, the fundamental and funding conditions have remained relatively stable, but the hot performance in equity and commodity markets has created negative external disturbances, reflecting a counterbalancing game between bullish fundamentals and bearish external disturbances [1][13] Group 2: Short-term Bond Market Range - The upper limit of the 10-year government bond yield is theoretically set at 1.80%, while the lower limit is around 1.50%. However, the actual trading process suggests a more realistic lower limit of 1.65% due to investor behavior and market conditions [2][14][15] - The bond market is expected to present a slight upward shift in the oscillation center, with the actual operating range projected to be between 1.75%-1.80% on the upside and 1.65%-1.70% on the downside [2][15] Group 3: Investment Strategy - In the current market environment, it is advised to avoid chasing highs and lows, as the downward adjustments may present better entry opportunities. Long-term investors should trust that the fundamental framework will have a more significant long-term impact than external disturbances [3][18] - For long-term investments, especially for insurance funds, the attractiveness of ultra-long bonds with yields above 2.0% has become more pronounced, suggesting a gradual accumulation strategy through grid trading [3][18] - For short-term trading, the current yield levels are close to the estimated upper limit, indicating a lower necessity for further reduction in positions, with a recommendation to maintain a wait-and-see approach [3][18]