证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 OPEC+决定 7 月增产,义乌快递底部价格略有修复 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，OPEC+决定 7 月增产；基础设施方面，关注港股红利配置 价值；航空方面，关注 25-26 年行业基本面上行趋势及市值弹性；快递方面，关 注 25 年价格竞争情况和行业估值修复潜力。 推荐标的：东莞控股、皖通高速、粤高速、青岛港、招商港口。 ❑ 航空：5 月以来受益于需求增长和票价基数较低，收益指标同比大幅提升， 旺季主要指标有望企稳回升。1）高频数据表现上看，5 月 23 日-29 日，国 内机票价（撇除燃油附加费）周环比-2%，同比 2024 年+5%，同比 2019 年 -12%；国内旅客量周环比-2%，同比 2024 年+6%，同比 2019 年+17%。 2）供需基本面角度，出行消费需求有一定的韧性，同时经济和消费刺激政 策利好国内出行需求增长，国际出行需求有望持续向正常化恢复；供给端， 受全球供应链不畅及飞机利用率已经大幅恢复影响供给释放偏紧；同时燃油 成本大幅减轻，展望 25-26 年行业供需再平衡、盈利回升的趋势明确 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The average land acquisition price in 300 cities has seen an increase in year-on-year growth rate [1] - The new housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have shown a narrowing decline in year-on-year comparisons as of May 30 [2][9] - The overall market sentiment index for 50 cities has shown a narrowing year-on-year increase [54] Summary by Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 256 stocks with a total market value of 2,669.6 billion and a circulating market value of 2,523.6 billion [7] Industry Index - The absolute performance over 1 month is 2.5%, while the 6-month performance is -7.4%, and the 12-month performance is 13.1% [8] New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transactions has narrowed, while the month-on-month figures are at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [9][12] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transactions has expanded, with month-on-month figures at a lower level compared to the past five years [15][17] Land Acquisition - From January to May, the cumulative transaction area for land in 300 cities has seen a year-on-year decline, while the average transaction price has increased by 31% [22][26] Inventory - The inventory and de-stocking cycles for unsold properties have shown a marginal increase compared to March [33][36] Forward-Looking Indicators - As of May, the liquidity outlook indicates a widening macro-level liquidity easing [51]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 PPI 或进一步下探 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每月 国内方面，1）仍维持生产端提前转入淡季的判断，但螺纹钢表需等数据有所 回暖，Q2 经济下行幅度或有限。2）5 月出口增速维持较快增长的可能性在提 高，但美国关税扰动开始让位基钦周期、4 月美国耐用品订单同比已经降至年 内最低，6 月起国内出口下行压力渐增。3）5 月 PPI 同比大概率进一步下探， 同时工业企业利润回升持续性将受制约。4）5 月制造业 PMI 未能升破荣枯 线，关税干扰亦结束，预计利率债短期利空出尽、权益资产进入平淡期。 海外方面，1）众议院版美丽大法案在参议院遇到挑战，但预计最终将向参议 院宽松派的目标靠拢。尽管长期看高财政赤字难以持续，但年内出现系统性风 险的概率也不高。2）6 月 15-17 日 G7 峰会前美国或加速推进与日本及欧盟谈 判。美国与其他非美达成更广泛共识后或重新对华施压，7 月中旬到 8 月上旬 是关键时点。3）特朗普关税政策遭遇司法挑战，特朗普团队正考虑利用 《1974 年贸易法》122 条在 150 天内对非美商品最高征收 15%附加税。此 外， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expectations for the industry index to outperform the benchmark index [7]. Core Insights - The industry is entering a commercialization phase, particularly in the unmanned logistics sector, driven by the upcoming launch of Tesla's Robotaxi service and supportive policies from the postal authority [5][4]. - The Shanghai Pudong New Area has introduced a comprehensive set of 16 policies to support the development of the embodied intelligence industry, including financial support of up to 20 million yuan for key technology breakthroughs [3]. - The report highlights significant investment opportunities in companies involved in embodied intelligence, particularly those focusing on training models, chips, and robotics [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - Tesla plans to launch its Robotaxi service on June 12, marking a significant milestone in the autonomous vehicle and AI space [1]. - Honor has confirmed its entry into the robotics business during its product launch event [2]. - The National Postal Administration has announced initiatives to accelerate technological development in the postal industry, emphasizing AI applications [4]. Market Performance - The industry has shown strong performance, with a 15% absolute return over the past month and a 20.9% return over the past year [9]. - The total market capitalization of the industry stands at 3,839.5 billion yuan, with 475 listed companies [7]. Investment Opportunities - Key investment targets include: - Nvidia (NVDA) for embodied intelligence training and chip solutions [6]. - Tesla (TSLA) and other robotics manufacturers like UBTECH and Yujian for embodied intelligence products [6]. - Companies providing core components such as motor control chips and sensors [11]. Financing Events - Various financing events have been recorded, with companies like Shanjing Harmonic raising significant funds to expand production capacity and enhance automation [13]. - Notable investments include 3 billion yuan for Shanjing Harmonic and undisclosed amounts for other startups focusing on embodied intelligence [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The weekly generalized price index (weekly PCI) continues to rise but remains at a low level, and the upward momentum may slow down, requiring macro - policies to hedge external uncertainties [3] - The low - slope recovery of the generalized price does not pose a substantial negative impact on the bond market but hinders the absolute decline of interest rates. The bond market is still bullish in the short term, and a reverse trading strategy is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 3 - 5 - year credit bonds [4][5] Summary by Directory Generalized Price Index Tracking - The increase in commodity prices and output gap proxy variables is the main reason for the rise of the weekly PCI. The commodity price proxy variable increased by 0.1 percentage points, with the CRB spot index strengthening. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year growth rate of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rice and flour wholesale prices was - 2.3%, basically unchanged from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the CRB spot composite index was 1.4%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous value [1] - The 4 - week moving average of the output gap proxy variable (WEI demand - supply) was 0.7%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value, indicating short - term improvement in the fundamentals. It is expected that the export rush in June will continue, infrastructure will support fixed - asset investment, and domestic consumption still needs improvement overall, but consumption of some categories such as gold and silver jewelry, home appliances, and digital products is relatively strong [1] - The financial asset price proxy variable was basically the same as the previous value, with little change in the year - on - year growth rates of stock prices and housing prices. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Composite Index was 6.7%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the second - hand housing listing price was - 8.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [2] - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the US dollar index was - 4.7%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. Although the year - on - year has rebounded, the recent performance of the US dollar index is still weak, mainly due to the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the potential significant decline in the US fundamentals [2] - The inflation expectation proxy variable decreased by 0.4 percentage points, with both the prices of edible agricultural products and production materials falling. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the edible agricultural product price index was - 5.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the production material price index was - 9.4%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value [2] Impact on the Bond Market - The low absolute level of the generalized price makes it difficult to pose a substantial negative impact on the bond market. However, if the generalized price level continues to rise in the medium term, it may accumulate adjustment pressure on the bond market [5] - There is no need to overly worry about banks selling old bonds to realize floating profits. The reason for the bond market adjustment in the first quarter was not banks selling bonds but the significant increase in government bond supply and credit investment. The new supply of government bonds in June is not high, and the impact of bond selling on the bond market is controllable [5] - The bond market is still bullish in the short term. A reverse trading strategy is recommended, that is, take appropriate profit - taking when the market rises and appropriate position - adding when it falls. In the stage of a slightly bullish and volatile bond market, credit bonds have certain advantages [5]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In March 2025, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.47% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.54%[1] - Sales in March 2025 rose by 4.05% year-on-year, up from 3.21% previously[1] - The U.S. was expected to enter an active destocking phase by late 2024, but tariff expectations led to a surge in imports, particularly in industrial and consumer goods, exceeding seasonal norms and potentially overextending future demand[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - As of March 2025, 10 out of 14 major industries were in a passive restocking phase, including chemicals, building materials, and metals[19] - The historical percentile for overall inventory growth in March was 40.8%, with chemicals at 87.1%, building materials at 68.9%, and automotive parts at 55.1%, indicating high inventory levels relative to historical data[19] - The oil and gas sector has been in an active destocking phase since March 2025, while other sectors remain in passive restocking[20] - The transportation sector is currently in an active destocking phase, while machinery manufacturing is in a passive destocking phase[21] - Consumer goods, including durable goods and textiles, are also in a passive restocking phase as of March 2025[22]

Market Overview - The market is expected to show a pattern of index fluctuations with large-cap and quality indices outperforming [2][3][18] - Current economic fundamentals are stable, with no significant decline in exports due to external changes, and domestic demand policies are still in a preparatory phase [3][19] - Concerns about real estate sales remain, but overall corporate profit expectations are likely to remain stable [3][19] Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on quality and cash flow-based approaches as manufacturing financing demand remains weak and capital expenditure continues to decline [3][18] - The upcoming implementation of new regulations on algorithmic trading is expected to reduce trading activity, impacting small-cap stocks negatively [3][20] Sector and Industry Recommendations - Recommended sectors for June include automotive, non-ferrous metals, defense and military, retail, beauty care, and chemical pharmaceuticals, focusing on traditional capacity clearance and the rise of new consumption [4][8][22] - The external tariff uncertainties may pressure domestic economic growth, necessitating more supportive policies for stable internal growth [4][22] Economic Indicators - Total demand growth remains stable at around 4%, with industrial enterprise revenue growth at 3.6% [28][30] - The investment side faces significant pressure, with new construction in real estate and manufacturing investment continuing to decline [19][35] Financial Policies and Market Sentiment - The upcoming Lujiazui Forum is expected to announce significant financial policies aimed at stabilizing economic and market expectations [25][49] - The market is currently experiencing limited inflow of incremental funds, with insurance capital being the main force in increasing A-share holdings [20][22]

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 06 月 02 日 基金降久期——债市晴雨表 【债市情绪】上周债市情绪指数为 114.0，较前值回升 0.7；债市情绪扩散指数 55.8%，较前值回升 13.4 个百分点。 【机构久期】上周五基金久期为 2.15 年，较前一周五回落 0.02 年；农商行久期 为 2.86 年，较前一周五回升 0.02 年；保险久期为 6.80 年，较前一周五回升 0.06 年。 【杠杆率】上周质押式回购余额为 11.0 万亿元，较前值回升 0.4 万亿元；大行 净融出余额为 3.8 万亿元，较前值回升 0.7 万亿元；债市杠杆率为 103.4%，较 前值持平。 【二级成交】上周从换手率来看，30Y 国债换手率为 1.9%，较前值持平。10Y 国债换手率为 1.5%，较前值回升 0.5 个百分点；10Y 国开债换手率为 26.2%， 较前值回落 3.1 个百分点；超长期信用债换手率为 0.65%，较前值回升 0.18 个 百分点。 【配置力量】债市配置力量来看，上周债基新发行份额为 93 亿元，较前值回升 24 亿元；风险偏好来看，股市风险溢价为 1.39%，较前值回升 0.03 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the banking industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in bill rates and emphasizes the importance of large maturing certificates of deposit [5][11] - It notes that the net buying volume of bills by state-owned banks has increased compared to the same period last year, while city commercial banks have seen a significant rebound in net selling [5][11] - The report anticipates a challenging funding environment in June due to substantial maturities of certificates of deposit and reverse repos [5][12] Industry Scale - The banking industry comprises 41 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 991.12 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 981.93 billion [1] Bill Market Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month bill rates were 1.1%, 1.16%, and 1.06%, reflecting changes of -8 basis points, +7 basis points, and -3 basis points respectively [11][19] - The cumulative net buying scale of bills for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks was 15,370.18 billion, 814.94 billion, 3,881.66 billion, and 7,057.95 billion respectively [11][19] Monetary Policy - The central bank conducted a total of 16,026 billion in 7-day reverse repos, achieving a net injection of 6,566 billion [12][33] - The report indicates that the central bank's reverse repo balance has significantly increased compared to historical levels [12][36] Funding Rates - The report states that the funding rates for DR001, DR007, and DR014 were 1.48%, 1.66%, and 1.72% respectively, with slight fluctuations noted [13][38] - It is expected that funding rates may decline in the upcoming period, although various factors could complicate the funding landscape in June [13][18] Government Debt Financing - The report mentions that the government debt net financing for the week was 5,141.04 billion, with expectations for a slight decrease in net payments in the following period [14][38] Certificates of Deposit - The report highlights that June will see a record maturity of over 40,784 billion in certificates of deposit, the largest single-month maturity in history [16][18] - The large maturities are attributed to various factors, including tighter funding conditions in Q1 2025 and regulatory influences [16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the equity market showed differentiation, with the BeiZheng 50 leading the gains and the small - cap value style outperforming. In terms of industries, comprehensive finance led, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. The bond market declined overall, while the convertible bond market rose. The average return of active equity funds in the whole market was - 0.41%; the average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and that of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%; the average return of bond funds with equity exposure was negative, and the average return of convertible bond funds was positive [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The equity market was differentiated, with the BeiZheng 50 leading and the small - cap value style dominant. Comprehensive finance led the industry performance, and national defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery also performed well. As of the close this week, the CSI 300 Index closed at 3840 points, down 1.08%; the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3347 points, down 0.03%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10041 points, down 0.91%; the ChiNext Index closed at 1993 points, down 1.4%. In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.32%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.46% [6]. - In terms of industry performance, comprehensive finance led with a gain of over 10%. National defense and military industry, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performed well, while the automobile, non - ferrous metals, power equipment and new energy sectors declined by over 2% [8]. - As of May 30, 2025, there were 5413 stocks in the A - share market, of which 3228 stocks rose this week. The number of rising stocks on the BeiZheng, ChiNext, Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Main Board was 194, 816, 343, and 1875 respectively [11]. 3.2 Key Fund Tracking 3.2.1 Active Equity - **Fund Performance**: The average return of the whole - market funds in the sample was - 0.41%. Funds with better performance were heavily invested in industries such as medicine, non - ferrous metals, and food and beverages. Among industry - themed funds, medical sector funds had the highest average return, while mid - stream manufacturing and cyclical sector funds lagged [17][20]. - **Position Estimation**: This week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased slightly, while those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased slightly. Compared with the previous week, the positions of ordinary stock - type funds increased by 0.22 percentage points, and those of partial - stock hybrid funds decreased by 0.60 percentage points. Actively managed partial - stock funds increased their allocation to cyclical and stable sectors and reduced their allocation to financial, consumer, and growth sectors [23]. 3.2.2 Bond - type Funds - **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market declined overall this week. The ChinaBond Total Wealth Index closed at 245.89, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Treasury Bond Index closed at 246.62, down 0.07% from last week; the ChinaBond Credit Bond Index closed at 223, down 0.01% from last week. The CSI Non - Pure Bond Fund Index closed at 2184.93 on Thursday, down 0.02% from last Thursday. The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 429.31, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and a trading volume of 277.1 billion yuan, an increase of 2.093 billion yuan from last week [29][31]. - **Fund Performance Overview**: The average return of short - term bond funds was - 0.01%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of medium - and long - term bond funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.04%. The average return of first - tier bond funds was 0%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of second - tier bond funds was - 0.02%, and the median was - 0.01%. The average return of partial - bond hybrid funds was - 0.03%, and the median was - 0.02%. The average return of low - position flexible allocation funds was - 0.07%, and the median was - 0.05%. The average return of convertible bond funds was 0.28%, and the median was 0.22% [34][37][40]. 3.2.3 New - share Subscription Funds - **New - share Overview**: One new stock was listed this week, with a total raised capital of 604 million yuan. There was no break - even on the first day of listing, and the expected total入围 income was 35,400 yuan [41]. - **New - share Subscription Income Calculation**: Assuming weekly participation in offline new - share subscriptions and successful入围, the weekly new - share subscription return sequence of an 800 - million - yuan account was calculated [42]. - **Fund Company New - share Subscription Overview**: Eight fund companies with more than two new - share subscription funds were selected. This week, the new - share subscription return rate of an 800 - million - yuan account was 0.004%. The optimal scale for weekly and annual new - share subscriptions was 400 million yuan [44]. - **New - share Subscription Fund Performance**: The average return of new - share subscription funds in the sample this week was - 0.18% [46]. 3.2.4 FOF Fund Performance - The average returns of low - risk, medium - risk, and high - risk FOF funds in the sample this week were - 0.28%, - 0.88%, and - 1.45% respectively [48]. 3.2.5 QDII Funds - During the statistical period, partial - stock and index QDII funds declined by 0.71% and 0.83% on average respectively, while alternative and bond QDII funds rose by 0.02% and 0.37% on average respectively [2][49]. 3.2.6 REITs Funds - This week, REITs declined by 0.02% on average. The Huaxia TBEA New Energy REIT led the gains, rising 4.26% this week. The Huatai Suzhou Hengtai Rental Housing REIT had the highest liquidity, with a trading volume of 130.2489 million yuan this week [51].