【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 7038 | -0.07% | 169,664 | 12407 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 价 差 | 01合约基差 | -158 | | -148 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -21 | | -20 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6900 - | 7030 | 6900 - | 7030 | | | 华东 | 6880 - | 7020 | 6900 - | 7020 | | | 华南 | 6850 - | 7080 | 6850 - | 7080 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 25 日 PP：短线反弹，中期震荡市 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 资料来源：卓创资讯，隆众资讯、国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 PP 期货偏弱 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报8.18-8.22 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 成本端：经过上周一周的时间，北方合金工厂的集中提前采购逐渐进入收尾阶段，港口活跃度有所降低。南北方矿商 高位报盘逐步减少，市场"买涨不买跌"情绪增加，观望情绪较浓，采购较谨慎，港口锰矿成交相对冷清。近期焦炭 较平稳，目前即期成本变动不大。 供应端：本周南北方市场整体开工波动不大。库存情况来说，前期厂家套保或出 货较积极,工厂短期库存压力暂且不大，多以交付前期订单为主，叠加本周硅锰盘面弱势运行，硅锰合金厂出现成本 倒挂，让价出货情绪相较有限。当前硅锰合金厂多封盘不报，市场看跌情绪有所提升，等待盘面的变化情况对硅锰市 场的情绪影响。 需求端：受硅锰盘面走低影响，河钢招标后，新出钢招价格下滑明显，其中承 ...

财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 财达期货｜螺纹钢、铁矿石 周报 2025-08-18 预期兑现叠加技术面背离，螺矿盘面短期偏弱运行 研究员 提涨落地，导致长流程钢厂利润继续小幅收缩。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 2 页 共 9 页 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 9 页 【螺纹钢】 姓名：薛国鹏 F3073406 期货方面：本周螺纹 10 合约在空头主力增仓驱动下开始破位小幅下挫。截 止周五，螺纹 10 合约收于 3188 元/吨，环比上周下跌 25.0 元， 周跌幅 0.78%。 从 业 资 格 号 ： 现货方面：本周螺纹主流地区价格普遍小幅下调，整体成交一般。截止周 五，全国螺纹平均报价下调 10 元至 3384 元/吨；其中上海地区 螺纹价格下调 20 元至 3320 元/吨；杭州地区螺纹价格下调 40 元至 3340 元/吨；北京地区螺纹价格下调 10 元至 3290 元/吨； 天津地区螺纹价格维持不变 3320 元/吨；广州地区螺纹价格下 调 20 元至 3350 元/吨。 投 资 咨 询 号 ： 基 本 面：供给方面：全国 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 83.59%，环比减 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - This week, the supply change was flat, and downstream industries had a phased restocking. By the end of the month, enterprise inventories decreased rapidly due to assessment plans, but social inventories increased due to imported arrivals. Overall, supply and demand remained loose [6] Summary by Directory Supply - PE production enterprise operating rate was 84.20%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14%; PE weekly output was 661,100 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.14% [9] Demand - The weighted operating rate of PE downstream industries decreased seasonally, with the downstream weighted operating rate at 39.47%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.89% [9] Inventory - This week, PE enterprise inventory was 444,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.76%; social inventory was 568,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.23% [9] Upstream and Cost - No specific data provided in the summary part Price and Profit - This week, the PE spot price increased by 0.29% month-on-month to 7,392 yuan/ton, and the PE futures price increased by 0.38% month-on-month to 7,351 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Spread - The basis was 41; the (9 - 1) spread was -45 [9]

1. Report Industrial Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is increasing, with an expected increase in production scheduling next week due to fewer planned maintenance activities. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025. The market outlook is bearish [7][8][9]. - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase significantly next week [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, and films were 36.91%, 32.09%, and 76.92% respectively, with varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, while the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [8]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,690.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.20%, higher than the historical average, which may lead to an increase in production scheduling [8]. - **Other Aspects**: On August 14, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 174 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, while social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions. The overall cost is weakening, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4915 - 5025 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the PVC market, including prices, production, inventory, and operating rates of different regions and methods. For example, the prices of various PVC products in different regions showed varying degrees of decline compared to the previous period, and the production of calcium carbide and ethylene methods both increased [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the PVC futures basis, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [17]. - **Price and Volume Trends**: It presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, including the opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as the moving average trends [21]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main contracts of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [23]. 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][31][33]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production, and profit trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in PVC production, as well as the daily and weekly production and maintenance volume trends of PVC [38][41]. - **Demand Trend**: Studies the sales volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rate trends of PVC, as well as the relationship between PVC demand and real estate investment, infrastructure investment, and other macro - economic indicators [43][45][54]. - **Inventory Situation**: Analyzes the inventory trends of exchange warrants, calcium carbide factory warehouses, ethylene factory warehouses, and social inventories, as well as the inventory days of production enterprises [58]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spread trends in the ethylene method [60]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63].

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 ★ 谨慎看空 供给压力不断上升，油价中枢继续下移，关注周五美俄会谈。油价进入旺 季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 压力较大，但下降空间在逐渐缩小。供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页 岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点；地缘端重点关注本周五美俄会谈。策略：买入看 跌期权。SC【475-495】 LPG ★ 谨慎看多 高基差估值偏低，持仓升至近期高位，反弹动力上升。成本端油价偏弱， 但短期下方支撑上升；基差处于高位，估值中性偏低；下游化工需求尚可， PDH 开工率 70%左右；供给和库存中性偏空，国内商品量小幅上升，港口 库存上升。策略：轻仓试多。PG【3750-3850】 L ★ 空头盘整 成本端油价下跌，现货持稳，基差继续走强。基本面供需双强，近期多数 装置陆续重启，LL 进口毛利提升，预计本周产量继续增加。但农膜旺季即 将开始，开工率连续 3 周上行，关注补库节奏。绝对价格低估值，远月合 约具有抗跌性。策略：关注旺季启动节奏及美俄会谈结果，回调试多。L 【7200-7400】 PP ★ 空头盘整 成本支撑 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | | 4万吨 . ， | 环比有所增加3 | 70% . 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | . | 8万吨 ， | 环比增长11 43% . | . | 需求有所抬升 . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为23 | 3万吨 ， . | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ...

| | | PVC产业日报 2025-08-11 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 收盘价:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,元/吨) | 5010 | 17 成交量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 734439 | 52084 | | | 持仓量:聚氯乙烯(PVC)(日,手) | 589321 | -45885 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 368253 | -50661 | | | 前20名持仓:卖单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | 391529 | -26014 前20名持仓:净买单量:聚氯乙烯(日,手) | -23276 | -24647 | | 现货市场 | 华东:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5125 | 0 华东:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4905.38 | -22.31 | | | 华南:PVC:乙烯法(日,元/吨) | 5035 | 0 华南:PVC:电石法(日,元/吨) | 4948.75 | 0 | | | PVC:中国:到岸价( ...

需求方面，新湖期货分析称，房地产新开工及施工节奏仍慢，且当前需求淡季；型材、管材企业维持低 负荷，刚需采购为主，终端询单增加但成交提升有限。需求正在进入淡季，库存连续累库。 对于后市走势，光大期货表示，供给维持高位震荡，需求逐步回暖，供需差收窄，预计后续库存缓慢下 降。近期基差和月差重新走阔，套利空间逐步打开，并且生产利润也显著增加，基本面变动有限情况 下，市场做空力量将会恢复，预计PVC价格震荡偏弱。 8月11日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，PVC期货盘中高位震荡运行，主力合约小幅收涨0.10%， 报5010.00元/吨。 成本方面，瑞达期货（002961）指出，本周国内电石供需趋于宽松，价格或有回落；乙烯美金市场货源 充足，价格或维稳为主。 供应端，据西南期货介绍，上周PVC产量46.60万吨，较上期减少0.37万吨，降幅达0.80%，产能利用率 78.62%，较上期下降0.63%。 ...

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年08月04日-08月08日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周11合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8490元/吨,周五收盘价为8710元/吨，周涨幅为2.59%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.4万吨，环比增加3.70%。本周样本企业产量为35105万吨,环 比增加7.60%;其中云南样本企业开工率为67.44%,环比增加3.99%,四川样本企业开工率为29.92%,环 比持平,新疆样本企业开工率为52.27%,环比增加9.42%,西北样本企业开工率为76%,环比持平。预计 本月开工率为53.8%,较上月开工率52.61%增加1.19个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7.8万 ...