国庆期间EG主港大幅累库 核心观点 化工日报 | 2025-10-10 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4158元/吨（较前一交易日变动-49元/吨，幅度-1.16%），EG华东市场现货价 4214元/吨（较前一交易日变动-61元/吨，幅度-1.43%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）70元/吨（环比+2元/吨）。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-63美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-305元/吨（环比 -20元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为50.7万吨（环比+9.8万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为44.3万吨（环比+4.3万吨）。据CCF数据，9.29~10.8期间主港实际到货总数15.4万吨， 港口库存大幅累库，库存触底反弹；本周10.9~10.12华东主港计划到港总数8万吨，到港量中性，副港计划到港量 1.6万吨，预计库存持稳。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位运行，海外乙二醇海外供应损失依旧较多，沙特仍有两套以 上装置处于停车或低负荷运行状态，预期变化不大，但国庆假期内外 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 3万吨 环比降幅5 1% ， ， . ， . , | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 增幅17 . | 1% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 0062% 环比增加5 632个百分点 全国样 。 . ， . ， | | | | | 本企业出货31 | 26万吨 环比减少0 31% 样本企业产量为70 1万吨 环比增加15 49% 样本企业 . ， . , . ， . , | | | | | | 装置检修量预估为60 ...

商品研究 | 走势评级： | 白糖——震荡 | | --- | --- | | | 棉花——震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元走强打压下，棉花短暂调整 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-10-10 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 资讯：南宁白糖现货价 5800.0 元，昆明白糖现货价 5820.0 元，新疆棉花 现货价 14850.0 元。 软商品日报 盘面：美白糖收 16.25，涨跌幅-0.43%。美棉花收 64.46，涨跌幅-0.74%。 棉花——震荡 供需： 白糖：受暑期冷饮需求带动，食糖消费季节性回暖。由于国内外价差扩大， 近期食糖进口增长明显。 棉花：8 月新疆和长江流域棉区气温偏高、降水偏少，棉花遭受高温热害风 险较高。当前棉花商业库存持续下降，同时棉纺织旺季即将到来，棉价存在 底部支撑。 库存仓单：郑糖仓单 8898.0 张，涨跌幅为-0.78%；郑棉仓单 3030.0 张， 涨跌幅为-1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market trading is average, and the chlor - alkali market shows a weak and fluctuating trend. PVC supply is abundant, downstream consumption is limited, and the export side shows some resilience. The 32% alkali spot price of caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% alkali orders have improved, and the inventory situation is complex, with attention needed on downstream procurement and production capacity expansion [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,896 yuan/ton (-1), the East China basis is -176 yuan/ton (+1), and the South China basis is -86 yuan/ton (+1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,720 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4,810 yuan/ton (-10) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 48 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is -784 yuan/ton (-127), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is -645 yuan/ton (+7), and the PVC export profit is 7.1 dollars/ton (+1.4) [1]. - Inventory and operation rate: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.8 million tons (+1.2), the social inventory is 53.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.11% (+0.68%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 75.9 million tons (+0.4) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,515 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -15 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 725.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 159.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1,381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 39.12 million tons (+1.29), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.08 million tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operation rate is 82.50% (+0.60%) [2]. - Downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate is 85.95% (-0.28%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.82% (+0.30%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. The supply is abundant with planned maintenance in some areas and new production capacity ramping up. Although enterprises are actively pre - selling, downstream operation rates are generally slightly down, and consumption is limited. The export side shows some resilience, but the PVC wallpaper anti - dumping investigation in India may have an impact on exports [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of 32% caustic soda has been continuously reduced, the 50% caustic soda orders have improved, and the price has stabilized. Supply may increase slightly, and demand from the alumina industry is stable but with high - price sales difficulties. There are differences in inventory changes, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement, production capacity expansion, and cost support [3]. Strategy PVC - Unilateral: Hold [4]. - Inter - delivery spread: Sell the near - term contract and buy the far - term contract for V01 - V05 when the spread is high [4]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Unilateral: Hold [5]. - Inter - delivery spread: Buy the near - term contract and sell the far - term contract for SH01 - SH05 when the spread is low, paying attention to downstream procurement rhythm and alumina capacity expansion progress [5]. - Inter - commodity spread: No strategy [5].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-34元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-24元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利20元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利4元/吨。评：供 应端，煤价快速反弹，焦企利润不断恶化，焦化开工承压，焦 炭产量环比有所下滑。需求端，铁水产量连续小幅增加，焦炭 刚需支撑较好。总体上，当前上游供应有所回落，下游节前补 库需求较好，焦炭市场基本面保持健康。利润承压下，主流焦 企已开启提涨，钢厂暂未回应，但成本支撑偏强及下游节前补 库需求较好之下，市场看涨情绪较多，节前价格预计保持震 荡。 【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2253元/吨，下降7元/ 吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率82.53%，上升2.62%，中原大化50万 吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率74.62%， 周上升3.83%；中国甲醇港口样本库存149.22万吨，周下降6.56 万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存34.05万吨，周减少0.21万 吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位，下游需求回升，9月预期进口量维 持高位，甲醇港口 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 25, the manganese silicon futures main contract closed higher. The fundamentals show characteristics of "high supply and weak demand." Steel mills' pre - holiday stockpiling supports short - term demand, but terminal building material demand is weak, inventory pressure remains, and with the resumption of production in Guizhou, the risk of medium - to - long - term supply surplus intensifies. Technically, the price is oscillating in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton, with balanced long - and short - term forces. In the short term, it lacks an independent driver and is likely to follow the fluctuations of the black sector. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings in October and the demand callback risk after steel mills finish restocking [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5,916 yuan/ton, with a high of 5,954 yuan/ton, a low of 5,856 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5,938 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 219,803 lots, and the open interest was 332,429 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern of lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 510,416 lots, a decrease of 18,713 lots from the previous trading day. Among them, the open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,344 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 25, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract was 27,339 contracts, and that of put options was 23,120 contracts, with an open interest PCR of 0.846 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 25, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 88 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 25, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 59,475, a decrease of 539 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: On September 25, the manganese ore market oscillated. In Tianjin Port, semi - carbonate was traded at 34 - 34.5 yuan/ton degree, South African high - iron ore was about 30 yuan/ton degree, and Gabonese ore was about 40 yuan/ton degree. Low - price supplies were hard to find. The price of Australian lump ore was in the range of 39.5 - 41.5 yuan/ton degree, with firm quotes and pending transactions. In Qinzhou Port, the spot price of manganese ore was consolidating. The available inventory of semi - carbonate was low, with a price around 36.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian seeds at 35.5 - 36 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump ore at 39 - 41 yuan/ton degree, and South African high - iron ore at 30.5 yuan/ton degree [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 25, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a small positive line with a long lower shadow, indicating short - term support below but also obvious upward resistance. The price has been running in the range of 5,800 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the past half - month, currently at the central position, and a strong driver is needed for a breakthrough [11].

2025 年 9 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 PP：低位追空需谨慎，中期或是震荡市 张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 zhangchi4@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 PP 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2601 | 6877 | 0.39% | 178,124 | -15873 | | 价 差 | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 01合约基差 | | -177 | -142 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | | -43 | -49 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6670 - | 6780 | 6690 - | 6780 | | | 华东 | 6700 - | 6840 | 6700 - | 6840 | | | 华南 | 6650 - | 6830 | 6650 - 6830 | | 【趋势强度】 PP 趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is stagnant. The main influencing factors include the cost changes of calcium carbide and ethylene methods, supply and demand dynamics, and inventory levels. The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 4860 - 4922. [8][12] - Bullish factors: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and favorable export conditions. [11] - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a 3.43% month - on - month increase. This week, the supply pressure decreased. The overall downstream start - up rate was 49.26%, a 0.76 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, but still below the historical average. The current demand may remain sluggish. [6][9] - **Basis**: On September 23, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4790 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 101 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [9] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. [9] - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The main positions were net short, and short positions increased. [9] - **Expectation**: It is expected that the scheduled production will increase. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. [8] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report presents the previous day's PVC market data, including prices, spreads, inventory, start - up rates, profits, and costs of different regions and varieties. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.83% month - on - month to 4790 yuan/ton. [15] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and the main contract closing price. [17][18] - **Price and Volume**: It shows the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025. [21] - **Spread Analysis**: It presents the historical spread trends of different contract months of PVC futures, such as the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025. [23][24] 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost, profit, start - up rate, and inventory data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method production process. For example, the profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a 30.80% month - on - month increase in losses. [6][35] - **Supply Trend**: The current capacity utilization rate of calcium carbide method enterprises is 76.96%, a 0.04 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The production of calcium carbide method enterprises was 328,605 tons, a 3.14% month - on - month decrease, and that of ethylene method enterprises was 132,310 tons, a 5.16% month - on - month decrease. [6] - **Demand Trend**: It shows the downstream start - up rates of PVC, such as the profile start - up rate of 39.43%, a 0.21 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, and the pipe start - up rate of 39.13%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. [9] - **Inventory**: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days. [60][61] - **Ethylene Method**: It presents data on imports of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads in the ethylene method. [63] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including imports, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, and exports. [66]

Core Viewpoint - The silicon iron futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping by 2.81% to 5602.00 yuan/ton as of September 22 [1] Market Data - As of September 19, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 18,827, a decrease of 129 from the previous trading day [2] - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises nationwide was 34.84%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily output of 16,150 tons [3] - Current profits for spot silicon iron are -200 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia. The recent bidding price for Hebei Steel's 75B silicon iron is 5,800 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the last round [3] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, with slight inventory reduction, but warehouse receipts have stopped declining and are increasing, keeping absolute values high and suppressing price increases. Short-term price movements are expected to follow coal prices [4] - Southwest Futures indicates that recent ferroalloy production remains high, with weak demand recovery, suggesting a continuation of supply surplus. The current low cost limits downward space, while low inventory of manganese ore strengthens support at low levels. There may be short-term supply reduction expectations, and under low cost conditions, there could be opportunities to consider low-position long trades if the market falls back into a loss zone [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].