Core Viewpoint - China's childcare subsidy policy is more comprehensive and generous compared to Japan's historical subsidies, reflecting a strong commitment to addressing declining birth rates [2][10][11]. Group 1: China's Childcare Subsidy Policy - The recently released "Implementation Plan for Childcare Subsidies" will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for families with children under three years old starting January 1, 2025, with an estimated budget of around 90 billion yuan for the first year [6][10]. - The subsidy amount represents approximately 4.4% of the average disposable income for Chinese families, slightly higher than Japan's 4.1% in 1992 [10][11]. - The absence of income restrictions in China's subsidy policy allows for broader coverage, facilitating quicker implementation across the country [10][11]. Group 2: Comparison with Japan's Childcare Subsidy Policy - Japan's childcare subsidy policy has evolved from targeting low-income families to providing subsidies to all families, with the income threshold gradually removed by 2024 [7][9]. - Historical data shows that Japan's subsidies initially had strict income limits, while China's current policy aims to support all newborns without such restrictions [9][10]. - Japan's subsidy amounts have increased over the years, but the initial coverage was limited compared to China's current approach [7][9]. Group 3: Challenges of Declining Birth Rates - China faces significant challenges with declining birth rates, with the total fertility rate dropping below Japan's levels and birth numbers falling below 10 million for the first time since the 1940s [11][13]. - Japan's experience with declining birth rates highlights the importance of comprehensive policies that address not only childcare but also marriage and economic pressures [15][40]. - The need for a supportive environment for families, including improved workplace conditions and childcare facilities, is critical in both countries to combat declining birth rates [3][25].

Global Macro - The report emphasizes the need for a defensive yet growth-oriented global asset allocation strategy over the next three to five years, considering the increasing global economic uncertainty due to U.S. trade policy changes and geopolitical complexities [1][2][3] Economic Outlook - The global economic recovery in the first half of 2025 is primarily supported by export and investment activities, particularly in China, while private consumption remains subdued [2][21] - The IMF forecasts China's real GDP growth at 4.8% for 2025, with continued recovery expected from 2026 to 2030 [21] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected at 1.9% for 2025, with an average annual compound growth rate of 2.02% from 2026 to 2030 [27] - The Eurozone is expected to see GDP growth gradually increase from 0.9% in 2025 to 1.3% by 2027, benefiting from wage and employment growth [2][29] Asset Allocation Trends - Over the past five years, there has been a trend of reducing traditional asset allocations while increasing fixed income and alternative assets [3][40] - The report highlights a shift in investor preferences towards high-quality bonds and growth sectors such as technology and healthcare, while also considering private market investments [45][49] - The report notes that international sovereign funds are increasingly focusing on Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like digital technology and clean energy [40][41] Future Asset Allocation Recommendations - For the period 2025-2027, the report suggests a gradual shift towards a more aggressive asset allocation, emphasizing increased exposure to China and other emerging markets [3][33] - In 2028-2029, it recommends reducing exposure to overvalued assets and reallocating towards value and defensive sectors due to rising recession risks [3][33] Market Participants Analysis - The report indicates that global investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios, with a notable preference for alternative assets such as private equity and real estate [39][40] - Family offices are shifting their asset allocations towards equities and alternative investments, reflecting a trend towards more aggressive investment strategies [50][51]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices showed positive recovery last week, with rapid sector rotation observed[13] - The total margin financing balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan, indicating high market sentiment[37] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.1 basis points, reflecting a warming bond market[13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - July export data exceeded expectations, with rare earth exports reaching 5,994.3 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%[13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July recorded a year-on-year change of 0%, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6%[23] - Exports to the EU and Africa increased by 9.2% and 42.4% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a recovery in overseas demand[18] Group 3: External Factors - The MSCI developed markets index rose by 2.38%, while the MSCI emerging markets index increased by 1.78% last week[31] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict is a key event to watch[37] - The U.S. imposed a 25% additional tariff on goods from India, which may impact market volatility[31]

Core Viewpoint - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with exports increasing by 7.3% and imports decreasing by 1.6% [5]. Trade Performance - Total goods trade value for July 2025 was 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a growth of 6.7%, with exports at 2.31 trillion yuan (up 8%) and imports at 1.6 trillion yuan (up 4.8%) [5]. - General trade and processing trade both saw increases, with general trade at 16.44 trillion yuan (up 2.1%) and processing trade at 4.6 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) [5][6]. Trade Partners - ASEAN emerged as China's largest trading partner with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan (up 9.4%), followed by the EU at 3.35 trillion yuan (up 3.9%) and the US at 2.42 trillion yuan (down 11.1%) [5][6]. Enterprise Contributions - Private enterprises contributed significantly with a total trade value of 14.68 trillion yuan (up 7.4%), accounting for 57.1% of total foreign trade [6]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan (up 2.6%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline to 3.49 trillion yuan (down 8.8%) [6]. Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of exports, totaling 9.18 trillion yuan (up 9.3%), with notable growth in integrated circuits (up 21.8%) and automobiles (up 10.9%) [6]. - Labor-intensive products saw a slight decline in exports, totaling 2.41 trillion yuan (down 0.8%) [6]. Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports at 6.97 million tons (down 2.3%) and crude oil at 3.27 million tons (up 2.8%) [7]. - Imports of mechanical and electrical products increased to 4.09 trillion yuan (up 5.8%) [7].

Core Viewpoint - The event "Decoding Macroeconomics, Exploring Gold Investment Directions" organized by SPD Bank's Jinan Branch aimed to discuss investment trends amidst a recovering yet challenging global economy [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The global economy is progressing with both recovery and challenges, while the domestic economy shows a continued upward trend supported by active policy measures [3]. - External uncertainties such as trade wars and industry transformations represented by "anti-involution" are presenting new challenges in the investment landscape [3]. Group 2: Event Highlights - The strategy meeting featured expert analyses from SPD Bank's investment strategy analyst Sun Liping, who provided insights into macroeconomic trends and market dynamics [5]. - Senior strategy analyst Zhang Chuwen from Fortune Fund focused on the gold market, discussing investment opportunities and asset allocation strategies in light of global conditions [5]. - The event fostered a lively atmosphere with active audience engagement, highlighting the importance of professional investment discussions [5]. Group 3: Financial Safety Awareness - A segment dedicated to financial fraud prevention was included, where staff shared common scams and prevention techniques, enhancing participants' awareness of financial risks [5]. - The event successfully combined professional investment dialogue with educational elements on financial safety, strengthening the relationship between the bank and its clients [5]. Group 4: Future Engagement Strategy - SPD Bank's Jinan Branch plans to continue hosting high-quality client events and improve regular communication mechanisms with key clients [5]. - The focus on deepening interactions aims to solidify client relationships and enhance trust in the bank's professional capabilities and services [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate within a range, mainly between 78,000 - 79,500. The macro situation has uncertainties in the interest - rate cut path, and the fundamentals show a stage of weak supply and demand during the off - season, but "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 this week, and it is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - term. For aluminum, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price in August referring to 20,000 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract running between 19,200 - 20,200, and it is necessary to focus on the supply and import changes of upstream scrap aluminum [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices may oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000. The supply is loose while the demand is weak, and the low inventory provides price support [7]. Tin - If the supply of Burmese tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may remain high [12]. Nickel - In the short - term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, mainly between 118,000 - 126,000, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with the main contract running between 13,000 - 13,500, and it is necessary to focus on policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. It is necessary to focus on the evolution of market sentiment and actual supply adjustments [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The SMM 0 zinc ingot premium was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price was 268,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin premium was 0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 2.22% from the previous day [14]. Stainless Steel - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day. The spot - futures price difference was 145 yuan/ton, down 56.72% from the previous day [16]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Fundamental Data Copper - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7]. Tin - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [12]. Nickel - China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. Stainless Steel - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; imports were 10.95 million tons, down 12.48% month - on - month; exports were 39.00 million tons, down 10.63% month - on - month [16]. Lithium Carbonate - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Core Insights - The "Zhongyun Jingwei·Yuan Guanlan Bian" investment strategy report conference was held in Zhengzhou, attracting over a hundred clients to discuss market opportunities [1] - The event emphasized the importance of professional investment strategies and forward-looking perspectives in wealth management amid a complex economic environment [3] Macroeconomic Analysis - Dr. Deng Shubin, Chief Economist of Zhongyuan Securities, provided an in-depth analysis of the macroeconomic outlook for the second half of the year, highlighting significant growth in service consumption and the resilience of the Chinese economy despite structural issues and external risks [4] - The central government aims to "expand residents' property income" as a key path to boost consumption, with the value of stock asset allocation becoming increasingly prominent in the current recovery environment [4] Market Insights - Mr. Zhang Liang, General Manager of Shenzhen Zhongou Ruibo, noted a significant positive shift in domestic policies, indicating the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull market, with a focus on sectors such as technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and gold for growth opportunities [6] - The current economic resilience, coupled with increased external uncertainties, suggests that the bond market is entering a period of fluctuation, where bonds should be viewed as a "core allocation" to balance investment portfolio volatility [9] Wealth Management Solutions - The "He Account" one-stop wealth management service was introduced by Mr. Wang Ningqi, emphasizing the solution to multi-account configuration challenges and the benefits of asset isolation and targeted inheritance through trust legal structures [10] - The conference showcased Zhongyuan Trust's commitment to providing professional and forward-looking market insights and asset allocation strategies, reinforcing its dedication to client-centric wealth management [12]

宏观经济周报 2025 年第 33 周 一、中国宏观 高频：本周 ICHI 综合景气指数显示，中国经济恢复势头有所放缓但整体依然稳 健。具体来看，消费景气指数小幅回落至收缩区间，但降幅有限，反映居民消 费信心和市场活力仍处于修复过程。投资景气指数虽较上周略有回落，但仍接 近扩张区间，显示在政策推动下基建和制造业投资继续发挥支撑作用。生产景 气指数小幅下降至接近荣枯线，企业生产活动温和放缓，但供给端韧性仍在。 出口景气指数与上周基本持平，维持在荣枯线附近，表明外需保持稳定但缺乏 明显加速动力。总体来看，ICHI 综合景气指数提示，尽管经济复苏节奏略有放 缓，但在政策支持与内生动能共同作用下，中国经济依然保持平稳运行格局。 2025 年前 7 个月，中国进出口总值同比增长 3.5%，增速较上半年加快 0.6 个百 分点。其中，7 月当月出口与进口同比均加快凸显外贸韧性。从结构上看，高技 术产品进出口增长 8.4%，贡献率达 45.4%；出口"新三样"产品增长 14.9%；机 电产品出口占比近六成，集成电路和汽车出口快速增长，反映出中国出口产品 正加快向高端、绿色转型。从贸易伙伴来看，东盟连续保持中国第一大贸易伙 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. Core Views Copper - Copper pricing returns to macro trading. With the US economy weakening, the copper price faces upward pressure. However, from the Samuelson rule, the market has not entered a recession narrative, and the downside space is difficult to open. In the short term, the copper price lacks upward momentum and is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to maintain a slight surplus, with the main contract price expected to fluctuate widely between 3,000 - 3,400 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor include inventory changes and marginal demand changes [5]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply - demand imbalance of aluminum alloy is expected to continue, with the market remaining in a narrow - range oscillation. The main contract is expected to trade between 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch are upstream scrap aluminum supply and import changes [7]. Zinc - The basic situation of "loose supply + weak demand" is insufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of the zinc price, but the low inventory provides price support. In the short term, the zinc price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [10]. Tin - If the supply of tin ore recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery falls short of expectations, the tin price is expected to continue to oscillate at a high level. Key factor to monitor is the import situation of Burmese tin ore [14]. Nickel - In the short term, the nickel price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. Key factor to watch is the change in macro expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract operating between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton. Key factors to monitor are policy trends and the supply - demand situation of nickel ore and nickel iron [17]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment and news mainly drive the lithium carbonate price. The main contract price may test the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the fact that the current price has already reflected some of the results, and unilateral trading should be cautious [20]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 78,530 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the previous day; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 120 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. Copper View - In the traditional off - season, the market shows a phased situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. However, after the copper price drops, spot trading improves marginally, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,650 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; the premium is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Data - In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [5]. Alumina and Aluminum Views - Last week, the alumina futures price was under pressure due to the increase in registered warehouse receipts. The supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten, but the alumina plants' willingness to cut production is not strong. The aluminum price is affected by factors such as inventory accumulation expectations, weak demand, and macro - level disturbances [5]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread is 45 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [7]. Aluminum Alloy View - The aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The tight supply of scrap aluminum supports the cost, while the demand is suppressed by the traditional off - season [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,470 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental Data - In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [10]. Zinc View - The upstream zinc mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption, but the production growth rate is lower than expected. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the downstream is cautious in purchasing [10]. Tin Price and Spread - SMM 1 tin price is 268,000 yuan/ton, up 0.30% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 280 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month [14]. Tin View - The supply of tin ore is currently tight, and the demand is expected to be weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics industry into the off - season [14]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 121,950 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 160 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [16]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production in the current period is 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports are 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [16]. Nickel View - The nickel market is oscillating, with weak unilateral driving forces. The macro - level sentiment is temporarily stable, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term [16]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 month - to - month spread is - 65 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) is 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% month - on - month; imports are 12.51 million tons, down 12.00% month - on - month [17]. Stainless Steel View - The stainless steel market is oscillating slightly stronger, but the downstream acceptance of high - priced resources is low. The supply pressure is difficult to reduce in the short term, and the demand is weak [17]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,900 yuan/ton, up 1.13% from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 month - to - month spread is - 1340 yuan/ton, up 580 yuan/ton from the previous day [20]. Fundamental Data - In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; demand was 96,275 tons, up 2.62% month - on - month [20]. Lithium Carbonate View - The lithium carbonate price rose significantly last week, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. The current supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, and the price may test the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range [20].

Industrial Sector - China's industrial production remains stable, with a recovery in steel and construction material output, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.7%[1] - Daily average pig iron output is higher than the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in steel production[3] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has improved, reflecting a rebound in the cement industry[5] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 15.9% year-on-year as of August 8, but the decline rate improved by 2.2 percentage points compared to the previous week[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.27% week-on-week as of July 28, indicating a slight downward trend in property prices[20] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to perform strongly, with a daily average of CNY 24.143 million, a year-on-year increase of 98.7%[1] - Retail sales of major home appliances grew by 10.5% year-on-year as of August 1, showing robust consumer demand[25] - The number of domestic flights increased by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in travel activity[26] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 6.8% year-on-year as of August 3, indicating a positive trend in external trade[30] - The global manufacturing PMI index was at 49.7% in July, down 0.7 percentage points from June, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[1] Price Trends - Black raw material futures prices rebounded, with coking coal futures up by 12.3% and rebar futures up by 0.3%[1] - The South China industrial product index fell by 1.0%, while the black raw material index rose by 2.7%[1]