1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - For zinc, the short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 84,390, down 1,520 (-1.77%) from October 10. The spot price was 84,835, down 1,840 (-2.12%) [7] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 20,910, down 70 (-0.33%) from October 10. The spot price was 20,960, down 60 (-0.29%) [7] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 21,815, down 455 (-2.04%) from October 10. The spot price was 21,856, down 854 (-3.76%) [7] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 280,750, down 5,600 (-1.96%) from October 10. The spot price was 281,250, down 7,000 (-2.43%) [7] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 121,160, down 1,020 (-0.83%) from October 10. The spot price was 122,780, down 1,080 (-0.87%) [7] 3.2 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast 3.2.1 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price remained high. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. The shutdown of the US federal government has hindered the release of key macro - economic data. Domestically, the operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, and the supply surplus pressure still exists. As winter storage approaches, the spot procurement enthusiasm of some aluminum plants has increased, but the overall spot market is still in a state of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5% last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [9] - Viewpoint: The macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical crisis, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [11] 3.2.2 Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price回调 downward. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates continued to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing operating rate last week was 58.05%, up 11.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of October 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [13] - Viewpoint: The short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine - end production, and the release of consumption [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan in the week of October 17 was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the average price of the imported bauxite index was 74.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 from the week of October 10 [17] - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of October 17 was 3743,700 tons, up 878,500 tons from the week of October 10; the departure volume at ports was 406,390 tons, up 24,130 tons from the week of October 10 [20] - Alumina: - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan in the week of October 17 was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the full cost was 2,851.5 yuan/ton, down 25.1 from the week of October 10; the profit in Shanxi was - 60.06 yuan/ton, down 32.72 from the week of October 10 [23] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: The total cost in the week of October 17 was 16,144.6 yuan/ton, down 68.1 from the week of October 10 [27] - Regional price difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum in the week of October 17 was - 110 yuan/ton, down 40 from the week of October 10 [27] - Operating rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables in the week of October 16 was 64, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 72.3, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 68, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 53.5, down 0.1 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, up 0.4 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6, down 0.3 from the week of October 9 [29][30] - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai in the week of October 16 was 60,300 tons, down 5,000 tons from the week of October 9; the total bonded area inventory was 80,300 tons, down 7,000 tons from the week of October 9; the social inventory in the week of October 20 was 625,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from the week of October 13; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas in the week of October 13 was 145,000 tons, unchanged from the week of September 29; the SHFE inventory in the week of October 17 was 122,028 tons, down 2,749 tons from the week of October 10; the LME inventory in the week of October 16 was 491,225 tons, down 17,600 tons from the week of October 9 [35][36] - Spot: - Basis: The basis for the current month in the week of October 17 was 65 yuan/ton, up 65 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 40 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10 [41] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [42] 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrates in the week of October 17 was 16,924 yuan/metal ton, down 210 from the week of October 10; the domestic processing fee was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, down 100 from the week of October 10; the imported processing fee was 118.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.2 from the week of October 10 [49] - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit in the week of October 17 was 4,024 yuan/metal ton, down 260 from the week of October 10; the import profit and loss was - 2,255.38 yuan/ton, down 177.47 from the week of October 10; the inventory of imported zinc concentrates at Lianyungang in the week of October 17 was 140,000 physical tons, unchanged from the week of October 10 [52] - Refined zinc: - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions in the week of October 20 was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from the week of October 13; the bonded area inventory of zinc ingots in the week of October 16 was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the week of October 9; the SHFE refined zinc inventory in the week of October 17 was 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons from the week of October 10; the LME zinc inventory in the week of October 16 was 38,025 tons, up 75 tons from the week of October 9 [55] - Galvanized: - Output: The output in the week of October 16 was 336,490 tons, up 58,860 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Operating rate: The operating rate in the week of October 16 was 58.05, up 11.22 from the week of October 9 [58] - Inventory: The raw material inventory in the week of October 16 was 13,910 tons, down 1,650 tons from the week of October 9; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, down 3,700 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Zinc: - Basis: The basis for the current month of SMM 0 zinc ingots in the week of October 17 was 35 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 35 yuan/ton, up 5 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [61] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton, up 20 from the week of October 10 [65]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月20日 —— 地缘弱化，宏观利空 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场呈 "短期扰动难改中长期弱势" 格局。短期看，加沙停火后地缘支撑大幅弱化，仅能引发小幅反 弹；美国政府停摆、中美经贸紧张等宏观利空持续，虽银行信贷问题暂未引发恐慌，但避险情绪仍存，原油 日线受 5 日均线压制，逐步逼近 60 美元支撑。中长期而言，基本面持续转弱，无实质性利好支撑，市场逻辑 以利空为主，波动重心不断下移。若 Brent 60 美元支撑失守，下方空间或进一步扩大，后续需警惕中期跌势 形成，补全第四轮波动周期最后一段，整体仍需优先关注下行风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油E ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains in the contraction zone, indicating stable economic fundamentals[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded, returning to the expansion zone, driven by strong holiday consumption in accommodation, dining, transportation, and cultural tourism[1] - The Investment Confidence Index has slightly increased but is still in the contraction zone, with manufacturing investment supported by structural upgrades and technology innovation[1] Inflation and Prices - In September 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fruits, while service prices fell by 0.3% due to holiday effects[2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices[2] - The core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% in 19 months, indicating a continued recovery in domestic demand[2] Industrial Prices - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September but decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Upstream industry prices stabilized, with notable improvements in coal processing (+3.8%) and black metal smelting (+0.2%) sectors[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was mitigated by the advancement of a unified national market and structural support from high-end and green manufacturing developments[3] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for gradual cuts while others suggest a more aggressive approach[7] - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which could lead to a government shutdown, affecting federal operations and potentially dragging down Q4 economic performance[8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily morning observations on various commodities, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemical products. It analyzes the market conditions, influencing factors, and provides trading strategies for each commodity [5][7][9]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Macro changes increase, and the overall pressure on meal products is rising. The international soybean pressure is high, and the domestic soybean meal may face more downward pressure. It is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads, and sell call options at high points [15][16][17]. - **Sugar**: The price of foreign sugar has fallen, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to open lower. The global sugar production is increasing, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the foreign market. It is recommended to short on rallies [17][18][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term trend is to maintain a shock. The palm oil export volume in Malaysia has increased, and the soybean planting progress in Brazil is ahead. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider going long on significant pullbacks [20][21][23]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The new grain spot price has rebounded, and the futures market is expected to be strongly volatile. The US corn production may be adjusted, and the domestic new corn supply is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the 01 contract, and gradually build long - term long positions on the 05 and 07 contracts on dips [23][24][25]. - **Hogs**: The pressure on hog sales has improved, and the spot price is generally stable. The short - term supply is still high, and the pig price is expected to face some pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view and conduct LH15 reverse spreads [25][26][27]. - **Peanuts**: Peanuts may experience a reduction in production, and the short - term trend is to be strongly volatile. The spot price is stable, and the oil mills are starting to purchase. It is recommended to go long on the 01 and 05 contracts on dips and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [28][29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is fair, and the egg price has stabilized. The supply of laying hens is still high, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close out previous short positions [31][32][35]. - **Apples**: The high - quality fruit rate is average, and the fruit price is rising steadily. The price of high - quality apples is expected to be firm, and the price gap will be large. It is recommended to go long on the 11 - month contract and short the 1 - month contract [36][37][39]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton purchase progress has accelerated, and the cotton price is mainly volatile. The new cotton supply is increasing, and the demand is improving slightly. It is expected that the cotton price will maintain a volatile trend [40][41][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Affected by coal mine safety accidents, the black metal sector has rebounded. The steel production is decreasing, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view on the shock and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar on dips [46][47][48]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is disturbed, and there is support at the bottom. The coal mine safety supervision is strengthening, and the steel mill profit is not good. It is recommended to take profits on some long positions and go long on dips [48][49][50]. - **Iron Ore**: A bearish view is taken in the medium - term. The global iron ore supply is increasing, and the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to short in the medium - term and conduct cash - futures reverse spreads [51][52][53]. - **Ferroalloys**: The macro - sentiment drives the rebound, but the demand pressure still exists. The supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to expect a rebound driven by the improvement of macro - sentiment, but the price will be in a bottom - shock state [53][54][55]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Trump's trade stance has softened, and the risk - aversion sentiment has declined. The precious metals prices have fallen after a long - term rise. It is recommended to take profits and wait for new long - entry opportunities [59][60][61]. - **Copper**: The supply - side disturbances are increasing, but the long - term trend remains unchanged. The copper supply is affected, and the consumption is average. It is recommended to go long on dips and continue to hold cross - market positive spreads [61][64][65]. - **Alumina**: The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is mainly grinding at a low level. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the supply - side changes [65][68][69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Pay attention to the macro - expectations this week, and the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The macro - sentiment is improving, and the consumption is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [70][74][75]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The macro - panic sentiment has improved, and the alloy price can be bought on dips. The tariff panic has eased, and the demand is supportive. It is recommended to go long on dips [75][76][78]. - **Zinc**: The export window has opened, and attention should be paid to the export volume and frequency. The domestic inventory is decreasing, and the export window is open. It is recommended to close out some profitable short positions and short on rallies [78][79][82]. - **Lead**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the lead price may decline. The domestic lead supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to hold profitable short positions and short on rallies [83][84][87]. - **Nickel**: The inventory increase reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the shock range [87][88][89]. - **Stainless Steel**: The weak demand tests the cost support. The price is below the cost, and the demand is not optimistic. It is expected to maintain a weak - shock pattern [91][92][93]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Industrial Silicon**: It is in a range - shock state, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. The short - term supply is slightly excessive, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a full pullback [93][94][95]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the medium - and long - term, and long positions should be held. The capacity integration is progressing, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions [96][97][98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand provides support, the supply is uncertain, and the lithium price is rising. The demand is stable, and the supply has uncertainties. It is recommended to go long on dips [97][98][100]. - **Tin**: The short - term macro - disturbances are large, and the tin price may be under pressure. The short - term consumption is weak, and the price is in a range - shock state. It is expected that the tin price will be under pressure [100][101][102].

研究报告 橡胶周报 基本面驱动不明显，盘面或将震荡运行 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 的免责声明。 摘要： 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 14690-15300 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡下行，总体跌幅较大。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 10 月 17 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 14695 元/吨，当周下跌 620 点，跌幅 4.05%。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约震荡下行，总体跌幅较大。 展望后市，宏观方面，市场避险情绪升温，对大宗商品整 体氛围构成压制。从基本面来看，供给方面，近期东南亚主产 区天气扰动影响割胶进度，提振原料价格，国内外主产区持续 受到天气影响，割胶工作开展受限，提振原料价格维持高位， 但是随着天气扰动有所减轻，后续存在较强上量预期，供给支 撑有所减弱。9 月天然橡胶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, the long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged. In the short - term, the weak real demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to the policy strength and direction around the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [3]. - For iron ore, due to factors such as a decline in steel mill profits, an increase in iron - making production pressure, and an accumulation of port inventories, iron ore prices are under pressure. The overall terminal demand is weak, and macro - level disturbances continue, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, although the current real - world situation is not ideal, most of it has been priced in. Macro - level factors may be more important. The market is not pessimistic about the black sector, and it may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the black sector's trend [10][11]. - For industrial silicon, supply pressure persists, and it is likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. - For polysilicon, there are policy expectations, but real - world constraints also exist. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. - For glass, with high inventory levels and weak downstream demand, the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. - For soda ash, in the context of weak supply and demand, insufficient cost and demand support, the market is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3037 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (- 0.39%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 277,451 tons, with no change. The main contract's open interest was 2.004317 million lots, a decrease of 35,070 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3120 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanghai it was 3200 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (- 0.46%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 118,411 tons, a decrease of 2694 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.496079 million lots, an increase of 16,084 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3240 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai it was 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Strategy Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to have an important guiding significance for the macro - economic trend. Attention should also be paid to the meeting's stance and the progress of Sino - US negotiations. - Fundamentally, rebar production decreased slightly, and post - holiday demand led to a slight reduction in inventory, but overall demand recovery was insufficient. Hot - rolled coil production continued to decline, post - holiday demand also increased, but the inventory level was still high, and the fundamental contradiction was prominent, with the coil - rebar spread continuing to narrow [3]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main iron ore contract (I2601) closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.32% (- 2.50), and the open interest increased by 9848 lots to 545,400 lots. The weighted open interest was 905,400 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 55.83 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.75% [5]. Strategy Viewpoints - Supply: The latest overseas iron ore shipments decreased seasonally. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased slightly, and shipments from non - mainstream countries remained stable. The near - term arrival volume increased to a high level in the same period. - Demand: The latest average daily pig iron production was 2.4095 million tons, a decrease of 0.59 million tons. There were both blast furnace restarts and overhauls, and some blast furnaces began overhauls due to profit declines. The steel mill profitability rate continued to decline. - Terminal: The inventory pressure of sheet metal remained high, and the structural contradiction within the finished products still existed. Overall, iron ore prices were under pressure, and the short - term commodity environment was still under pressure. If a new round of economic and trade consultations is initiated, market sentiment may improve [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron Market Information - On October 17, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 0.63% at 5718 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5680 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the delivery - equivalent price of 5870 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and a premium of 152 yuan/ton over the futures. - The silicon iron main contract (SF601) closed down 0.48% at 5430 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 5600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a premium of 170 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. Strategy Viewpoints - The short - term real - world demand pressure on prices has been reflected in the market. Macro - level factors such as important meetings may be more important. Although the current real - world situation is not ideal, it has mostly been priced in. - The market is not pessimistic about the black sector. It may be more cost - effective to look for rebound opportunities. Manganese silicon's potential driver may come from the manganese ore end, and silicon iron is likely to follow the black sector's trend with low operational cost - effectiveness [10][11]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The main industrial silicon contract (SI2511) closed at 8430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.03% (- 175). The weighted contract open interest increased by 12,173 lots to 442,119 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - permeable 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 870 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis for the main contract after conversion was 470 yuan/ton [13]. Strategy Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price fluctuated lower. Supply showed a pattern of "increasing in the north and decreasing in the south", with an overall increase in weekly production. Demand was under pressure, and cost factors provided some support. It was likely to fluctuate with the overall commodity environment and consolidate in the short - term [14]. Polysilicon Market Information - The main polysilicon contract (PS2511) closed at 52,340 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 235). The weighted contract open interest decreased by 1633 lots to 276,945 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.25 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feed material was 52.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of 460 yuan/ton for the main contract [15]. Strategy Viewpoints - There were policy expectations for polysilicon, and the contract price rebounded. However, real - world constraints still existed, with an unexpected increase in production scheduling in October, a decrease in downstream silicon wafer production scheduling, and continuous inventory accumulation pressure. The sustainability of high prices depends on whether the expectations can be substantively implemented [16]. Glass Market Information - The glass main contract closed at 1147 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 1.59% (+ 18). The quoted price of large - sized glass in North China was 1180 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1200 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 64.2756 million cases, an increase of 1.4516 million cases (+ 2.31%). The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 53,303 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 117,133 lots [18]. Strategy Viewpoints - Float glass factories had high inventory levels and faced great pressure to sell. Traders mainly focused on stabilizing prices and reducing inventory. The market lacked substantial positive support, and downstream purchasing willingness was low. The market was expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term [19]. Soda Ash Market Information - The soda ash main contract closed at 1235 yuan/ton on Friday, an increase of 0.24% (+ 3). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.7005 million tons, an increase of 40,700 tons (+ 2.31%), including an increase of 20,000 tons in heavy soda ash inventory and 20,700 tons in light soda ash inventory. The top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 11,705 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 31,185 lots [20]. Strategy Viewpoints - The domestic soda ash market continued to be weak and stable, with the price center basically unchanged. The industry's fundamentals had not improved substantially, and the supply - demand pattern remained loose, with enterprises generally in a loss - making state. Supply pressure was difficult to relieve quickly, and demand was weak. The market was expected to continue to operate weakly and stably in the short - term [21].