地缘因素

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贵金属日报:地缘因素令贵金属价格偏强,市场静候议息会议-20250618
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:10
贵金属日报 | 2025-06-18 地缘因素令贵金属价格偏强 市场静候议息会议 市场要闻与重要数据 昨日,美国5月零售销售弱于预期,但消费者支出仍然受到稳健薪资增长的支撑。美元指数在数据公布后趋弱,但 随着市场消化数据反映的喜忧参半的情况,美元迅速扭转跌势,但贵金属价格也同样走强,这或许与近期相对复 杂的地缘因素有关。明日凌晨将会迎来美联储议息会议,目前市场普遍认为美联储并不会在此次议息会议上对利 率水平做出调整。但随着特朗普持续对美联储施压敦促其降息,甚至称要更换目前美联储主席,因此未来利率下 降的可能性仍然较大。 期货行情与成交量: 2025-06-17,沪金主力合约开于 792.68元/克,收于 785.08元/克,较前一交易日收盘 -0.91%。当日成交量为 192889手,持仓量为 168935手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于 785.36 元/克,收于 787.38 元/克,较昨日午后收盘 上涨0.04%。 2025-06-17,沪银主力合约开于 8864元/千克,收于 8864元/千克,较前一交易日收盘-1.31%。当日成交量为 457021手,持仓量 409052手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于 8 ...
国际黄金震荡微跌 日本经济呈现"内热外冷"
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-03 03:13
Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with a current price of $3375.61 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.16% [1] - The gold price opened at $3379.54 per ounce, reached a high of $3392.00, and a low of $3362.83 during the trading session [1] - Geopolitical factors contributed to a significant increase in gold prices on the previous Monday, with a daily high of $3381, indicating a potential upward trend with a focus on breaking the $3400 resistance level [3] Group 2: Japanese Economic Insights - Japan's economy is experiencing a "hot domestic and cold external" situation, with domestic demand sectors benefiting from tourism recovery and consumption upgrades, leading to a record capital expenditure of 18.8 trillion yen (approximately $130 billion) in Q1 2025 [2] - The capital expenditure saw a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, driven by strong investments in the food and real estate sectors, aligning with the government's "tourism nation" strategy [2] - The investment surge is attributed to increased profits from inbound tourists purchasing Japanese goods and rising domestic service prices, encouraging companies to invest more [2]
贸易谈判展望与地缘因素仍相对多变
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-27 07:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both gold and silver, and suggests going long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels and selling put options [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of Trump's "Beautiful Big Bill" has raised concerns about US government debt, and the relatively poor long-term US Treasury bond auctions and reports of the Fed's potential bond-buying plan have supported the price of gold. Silver also maintains a relatively strong trend as gold prices rise, but there are doubts about the performance of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The fourth round of Japan-US tariff negotiations is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to mitigate the impact of US tariffs. The EU's "zero-tariff for zero-tariff" proposal is still on the table, and the EU plans to accelerate negotiations with the US. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise about $3 billion for cryptocurrency investments. Geopolitical tensions include preparations to strike Israel and a refusal to halt uranium enrichment. Western countries have removed the range limit on weapons aid to Ukraine [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Gold futures main contract opened at 785.00 yuan/gram and closed at 777.30 yuan/gram, down 0.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 296,331 lots, and the open interest was 216,132 lots. The night session closed at 779.72 yuan/gram, down 0.23% from the afternoon session. The Shanghai Silver futures main contract opened at 8,251 yuan/kg and closed at 8,280 yuan/kg, down 1.31% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 687,113 lots, and the open interest was 371,701 lots. The night session closed at 8,294 yuan/kg, up 0.29% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On May 26, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.51%, down 0.03% from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.51%, down 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2502 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 23 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 243 lots. The total trading volume of gold contracts was 539,548 lots, down 4.97% from the previous trading day. On the Ag2502 contract, the number of long positions was 136 lots, and the number of short positions increased by 171 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 925,933 lots, down 9.09% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position remained unchanged at 922.46 tons, and the silver ETF position remained unchanged at 14,217.50 tons compared to the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On May 26, 2025, the domestic premium for gold was -3.76 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was -474.18 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main gold and silver futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 93.88, down 0.56% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 100.67, up 0.51% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On May 26, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 61,062 kg, up 3.63% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 325,264 kg, down 12.69% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 10,166 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 89,820 kg [7] Strategy - Gold: It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 770 yuan/gram and 775 yuan/gram. Silver: It is also recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range between 7,950 yuan/kg and 8,000 yuan/kg. Arbitrage: Go long on the gold-silver ratio at low levels. Options: Sell put options [8]