1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Market is in a short - term long - short stalemate. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15,000 - 15,500. Supply - side support exists due to geopolitical tensions in Thailand and domestic产区停割, while demand - side growth is restricted by slow tire sales and low profits in some sectors [1]. Polyolefins - Both polyethylene and polypropylene face a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [4]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating higher. The port market may be weak in the near term due to Iranian supply, while the inland market has increasing supply and demand. The 05 contract can be considered for long positions after reduced shipments [6][8]. LPG No specific overall view is provided other than presenting price, inventory, and开工率 data [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to have limited downside. The BZ2603 may oscillate between 5,300 - 5,600. Styrene has limited driving force and is expected to be weak in the short - term [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Rolling low - buying operations are recommended. - PTA: TA rolling low - buying and TA5 - 9 low - level positive spreads are suggested. - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term low - level oscillation is expected, and selling EG2605 - C - 4100 is advisable to obtain time value. - Short - fiber: It follows raw material fluctuations, and the disk processing fee can be shorted when it is high. - Polyester Bottle Chips: Selling PR2602 - P - 5500 is recommended, and the main disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton [15]. Crude Oil - The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Brent crude should be monitored at the $60/barrel level. Attention should be paid to US - Russia talks, Russia - Ukraine negotiations, and the US - Venezuela situation [16]. Urea - The 2605 contract's main logic is the support of spring plowing fertilizer demand under high - supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize at 1,700 and the spirit of the urea meeting [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices are expected to be weak. PVC supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and the price outlook is not optimistic. Short - term observation and shorting on rebounds are recommended [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is bearish, and short - selling opportunities after rebounds should be noted. - Glass: The market has pressure, and the 01 contract will follow the delivery logic in December, while the 05 contract is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned whole latex remained unchanged at 15,050 yuan/ton; the whole - milk basis increased by 20.59%. Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.68% to 14,550 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread increased by 16.67%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 66.67% [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, Thailand's production decreased by 0.29%, Indonesia's by 1.53%, and China's by a certain amount. November domestic tire production increased by 3.96%, and exports increased by 9.36% [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: Bonded - area inventory increased by 2.08%, and上期所factory - warehouse futures inventory increased by 3.87% [1]. Polyolefins - **Futures and Spot Prices**: L2601 and L2605 decreased slightly, PP2601 increased by 0.10%, and PP2605 decreased by 0.40%. Some spot prices changed slightly [4]. - **Spreads**: L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed to different extents [4]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: PE downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 1.28%, and some PP开工率 and inventory indicators changed [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 10.86%, while port inventory decreased by 1.26% [7]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators increased or decreased [8]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 increased, and some spreads and basis changed [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory increased [12]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream开工率 indicators changed [12]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: Some prices and spreads of pure benzene and styrene changed [14]. - **Inventory**: Benzene and styrene port inventories changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some开工率 indicators of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [14]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: Crude oil, PX, and polyester product prices changed to different extents [15]. - **Spreads**: PX - related spreads, PTA - related spreads, and MEG - related spreads changed [15]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Some开工率 indicators and MEG port inventory changed [15]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices increased, and some spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Some refined oil prices and spreads changed [16]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Some refined oil crack spreads changed [16]. Urea - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Urea futures prices changed, and some spot prices changed [18]. - **Spreads and Positions**: Some spreads and positions changed [18]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic urea daily and weekly production, inventory, and订单天数 changed [18]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Some prices of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Some overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. - **Supply, Demand, and Inventory**:开工率, demand - side开工率, and inventory of PVC and caustic soda changed [19]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass and Soda Ash Prices**: Some prices of glass and soda ash changed [20]. - **Supply and Inventory**: Soda ash开工率, production, and inventory, as well as glass inventory and some related data changed [20]. - **Real Estate Data**: Some real - estate data changed [20].

（原标题：崔东树：11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆 去库时间升至61天） 智通财经APP获悉，崔东树发文称，由于10-11月车市表现一般，11月库存回升到379万辆的较高状态。 11月月末全国乘用车行业库存379万辆，较上月增38万辆，较2024年11月增59万辆，形成库存回升的旺 季备货特征。 根据2025年11月底的库存与未来3个月销量综合预估，现有库存支撑未来销售天数在61天，而 2024年11 月为48天，今年11月的总体库存压力相对较大。 从仅生产新能源车企业的库存变化特征分析看，随着反内卷的推动，行业库存9月降到62万辆，11月行 业库存上升到74万辆，较峰值库存降14万辆，但较10月增加12万辆。近期面临市场低于预期的风险，行 业库存总体压力较大。 1.近年狭义乘用车零售走势 5.全国乘用车市场预测指数与满意度指数 2024年乘用车国内零售前低后高，7-12月出现持续上升态势。2025年车市前低中高特征，1月由于春节 前置等因素较弱，今年国内车市零售累计增速从1月的负12%持续拉升到1-6月的11%，7-11月呈现高基 数的逐步减速特征，市场走出"前低中高后平"的走势。今年7-9月的零售同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The soda ash futures market continues to show a strong trend, with the main contract reaching 1192.00 CNY/ton, a significant increase of 2.05% [1] Industry Summary - As of December 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.4993 million tons, an increase of 0.005 million tons from the previous week, reflecting a growth rate of 0.33% [2] - The total inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises is 1.386 million tons (including some external warehouse inventories), which is an increase of 0.012 million tons from December 11, with a growth rate of 0.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.4%. Among this, the heavy soda ash inventory is 644,000 tons, which has decreased by 0.002 million tons, a decline of 0.3% [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Jianxin Futures, the soda ash market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure that is difficult to resolve quickly. Although cost support is gradually emerging, the driving force remains limited. Without significant changes in the supply-demand structure, prices are expected to continue fluctuating at low levels, with a cautious approach recommended towards rebound trends [4] - According to Wukuang Futures, as enterprises resume production and new capacity in the Alashan region is expected to be released, market supply pressure is gradually becoming apparent. Downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, with procurement mainly focused on just-in-time inventory replenishment, leading to low stocking willingness. Additionally, increased cold repairs in glass production lines further suppress demand for soda ash. In the short term, without significant positive stimuli, soda ash prices are expected to remain under pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The PVC market has been under pressure since 2025 due to increased supply and decreased demand, with prices hitting a nearly 10-year low. Recent price increases lack strong driving forces, and future price recovery will depend on policy effects and export conditions [1]. Supply Summary - In 2025, the PVC market will see an additional capacity of 2.2 million tons, with a net increase of 2.05 million tons, bringing total capacity to 29.93 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%. Ethylene-based capacity will account for 80% of this [1]. - From January to November, domestic PVC production reached 22.32 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.35%, with ethylene-based production growing by 11.48% [1]. - The operating rate for PVC powder is currently at 78.39%, down 0.62 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a reduction in production due to safety and production task considerations [1]. Inventory Summary - As of December 12, domestic PVC social inventory stood at 1.0593 million tons, with East and South China warehouses at historically high levels for this time of year. Despite the peak season, inventory levels have not decreased effectively [2]. - The pressure from high inventory levels remains a core factor affecting prices, with both social and enterprise inventories being high [2]. Demand Summary - Demand for PVC is weak, heavily reliant on the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which have seen significant declines in new construction and investment [3]. - From January to November, new housing starts fell by 20.5%, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9%, limiting the demand pull for PVC [3]. - The operating rates for downstream pipe and profile production are below 40%, indicating further weakening demand as the Spring Festival approaches [3]. Export Summary - PVC powder exports increased by 49% year-on-year to 3.23 million tons from January to October, while exports of PVC products fell by 11.5% [4]. - The domestic price advantage for PVC powder has improved order intake, but rising shipping costs may hinder significant export volume increases [4]. - Expectations for a 15% increase in PVC exports in the first half of next year could help alleviate domestic oversupply pressures [4]. Short-term and Mid-term Outlook - The PVC market continues to face supply-demand imbalances, with price increases lacking core driving forces. However, the current market valuation is at historical lows, and potential unplanned maintenance due to losses may limit price declines [5]. - In the mid-term, supply-demand contradictions are expected to gradually ease as more companies may reduce production and extend maintenance periods due to ongoing profit declines [2][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the hot-rolled coil industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support, and the stabilization of furnace materials has increased cost support. The market has digested the off-season demand and export license management news. With positive macro expectations, winter storage demand is expected to start, but attention should be paid to whether the inventory pressure can be relieved. The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures oscillated with an upward bias during the day, closing at 3254 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.65%. It has shown a stable recovery trend in the past two trading days [1] - The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3270 yuan/ton [2] - The basis between futures and spot was 24 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 5.6 tons week-on-week to 308.71 tons, and decreased by 11.41 tons year-on-year. Recent production has been continuously declining, and steel mills may have the expectation of switching production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot-rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 2.89 tons week-on-week to 311.97 tons, and decreased by 5.02 tons year-on-year. Domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness to stock up actively. Export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3.26 tons week-on-week to 397.09 tons (social inventory decreased by 7.37 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 4.11 tons). The total inventory is at a four-year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: The expectation of supply reduction has increased, winter storage demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have increased cost support [5] - **Bearish factors**: The demand has weakened seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market faces significant supply - demand pressures. Domestically, port inventories are accumulating, especially in East China. Overseas, there's a possibility of repair in the US - South Korea price difference. Demand is weak, and although supply - side reduction plans and decreasing imports may relieve inventory pressure, the market remains under pressure, expected to oscillate in the short term [2]. - The styrene market maintains a pattern of low operation and steady inventory reduction. Port inventories are falling, but weak demand lacks upward momentum. With the approaching of December, the market enters the off - season, and inventory pressure still exists. Supply - side changes have limited impact due to unremarkable demand recovery [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - **Price**: On December 15, the styrene main contract closed up 0.70% at 6,487 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.52% at 5,448 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,315 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On December 15, Brent crude closed at $57.4 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel), and WTI crude closed at $61.1 per barrel (-$0.2 per barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (-1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+3.6 tons) [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene weekly output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.3% (-0.6%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 53.8% (-2.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 70.5% (+2.2%), and PS capacity utilization was 58.3% (-0.7%) [2]. (2) Views - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market will oscillate. Attention should be paid to downstream operation recovery and import arrivals, and the market will seek a balance between inventory and supply [2]. - **Styrene**: The market lacks upward momentum due to weak demand, and supply - side changes have limited impact [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract increased 0.70% from December 12 to December 15, and the spot price increased 0.06%. Pure benzene futures main contract increased 0.52%, and the East China spot price increased 0.28% [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, Chinese styrene output increased 2.32%, and pure benzene output decreased 1.70%. Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased 36.59% [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased 1.56%, and that of caprolactam decreased 7.53%. Among styrene downstream industries, EPS capacity utilization increased 1.61%, ABS decreased 2.90%, and PS increased 1.40% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations. Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027. Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned economic weakness and the need for interest - rate cuts. The US EIA crude inventory in the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly includes charts of styrene and pure benzene prices, output, inventory, and capacity utilization, with data sources from iFinD and Steel Union Data [11][20][28][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Overall, the report maintains a cautious and bearish stance on the energy and chemical industries, with specific ratings for each variety including "cautious short," "short consolidation," and "cautious pursuit of short" [1][3][7] 2. Report Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, geopolitical situations, and inventory levels. It concludes that most products face downward pressure due to factors like oversupply, weakening cost support, and seasonal demand changes [1][3][7] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Core view: Cautious short. The oversupply situation remains unchanged, and the rebound of oil prices is bearish [1] - Main logic: Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and there is a seasonal supply surplus. OPEC+ is still in the expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased. Key variables to watch are US shale oil production changes and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and South America [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of SC at [430 - 440] [12] LPG - Core view: Cautious short. The downward trend of the cost - end (crude oil) and inventory accumulation have led to a weakening trend [1] - Main logic: The cost - end crude oil is in an adjustment phase with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have increased, and downstream chemical demand has some resilience. However, inventory levels at ports and factories have increased month - on - month [1] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the price range of PG at [4100 - 4200] [16] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on device dynamics [17] - Main logic: Devices maintain high - level operations. Although there may be a short - term oversold rebound, the supply side is still sufficient. The peak season for shed films is ending, and enterprise inventories are slightly increasing. There is still pressure to reduce inventory in the future [20] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Pay attention to the price range of L at [6500 - 6650] [20] PP (Polypropylene) - Core view: Short consolidation. Focus on PDH device dynamics [21] - Main logic: The main contract is shifting, and weighted profit margins are compressed. In December, the demand side is entering the off - season, and the shutdown ratio has decreased. PDH profits are at a low level, and there is a lack of future maintenance plans, resulting in high inventory reduction pressure in the industry chain [24] - Strategy: Reduce short positions. Wait for a rebound to go short. Consider long PP processing fees or short MTO05 for arbitrage. Pay attention to the price range of PP at [6200 - 6350] [24] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - Core view: Short consolidation. Low - valuation support [25] - Main logic: There is a game between high - level operations and low profits. Currently, the upstream and mid - stream inventories are high and stable, and both domestic and foreign demand are in the seasonal off - season. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to resolve without concentrated maintenance in the upstream and mid - stream. Recently, the prices of chlorine and alkali have both declined, and some northwest self - supplied calcium carbide method devices are losing cash flow [28] - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of V at [4250 - 4400] [28] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - Core view: Cautious short. Cost support is weakening, but the valuation is relatively low [29] - Main logic: The processing fees are generally low. Domestic devices are mainly under planned maintenance with a large - scale. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. The cost - end PX has been fluctuating weakly recently. There is no significant inventory pressure in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the price range of TA at [4550 - 4650] [31] MEG (Monoethylene Glycol) - Core view: Rebound and short. Supply - demand improvement vs. inventory accumulation expectation [32] - Main logic: The overall domestic operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads. Downstream demand is currently okay but is expected to weaken. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of MEG is low, but there is a lack of upward driving force [33] - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to short on a rebound. Pay attention to the price range of EG at [3615 - 3695] [34] Methanol - Core view: Oscillate weakly. The accelerated reduction of port inventory does not change the bearish fundamentals [35] - Main logic: The spot price in Taicang has weakened, and port inventory has decreased month - on - month. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high - level, and overseas devices have reduced their loads. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 1.3 million tons, and there is still supply - side pressure. The demand side has slightly weakened, and the cost support has weakened [37] - Strategy: The arrival volume in December is still high, and the supply - side pressure is still large. The 05 contract of methanol oscillates weakly with limited downward space [39] Urea - Core view: Cautious short. Weak reality vs. strong expectation [40] - Main logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily output of urea is high, but the supply - side pressure is expected to ease in mid - to - late December. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The arbitrage window between domestic and foreign markets is not closed [41] - Strategy: Cautious short. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract. Pay attention to the price range of UR05 at [1655 - 1685] [43] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - Core view: The supply shortage has eased, and the gas price has declined [44] - Main logic: The demand side has entered the peak consumption season, but the gas price has reached a high - level in recent years. Currently, the supply side is relatively abundant, putting downward pressure on the gas price [47] - Strategy: The demand side has support during the winter consumption season, but the high gas price and sufficient supply lead to downward pressure. Pay attention to the price range of NG at [4.021 - 4.406] [47] Asphalt - Core view: Oscillate within a range. Cost - end bearishness vs. South American geopolitical uncertainties [48] - Main logic: The price trend is mainly determined by the cost - end crude oil, which is weak. The supply - demand relationship is also weak. Recently, focus on the South American geopolitical situation [50] - Strategy: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. The supply is sufficient, and the demand has entered the off - season. Partially close short positions due to the increasing South American geopolitical uncertainties. Pay attention to the price range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [51] Glass - Core view: The short trend continues. The supply reduction is insufficient [52] - Main logic: Both the futures and spot prices have declined, and the basis has strengthened. The daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of water release from a production line in South China this week. There are no new ignition production lines. The profits of various processes have recovered, and the supply is unlikely to be significantly reduced. The real estate market is in an adjustment period, and downstream processing orders are at a low level compared to the same period, resulting in weak demand. Although the factory inventory has decreased for three consecutive months, the absolute inventory in the upstream and mid - stream is still high [55] - Strategy: Short - term moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of FG at [930 - 980] [55] Soda Ash - Core view: Short consolidation. High - level cancellation of warehouse receipts [56] - Main logic: Warehouse receipts have been cancelled at a high - level. The factory inventory has decreased for five consecutive months but is still at a high level compared to the same period. There are few planned maintenance enterprises next week, and there is a plan to put into operation a 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing in late December, maintaining a loose supply pattern. The cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass remains at 244,000 tons, with insufficient demand support [59] - Strategy: Moving averages suppress the price. Short in the short term. Wait for a rebound to short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the price range of SA at [1080 - 1130] [59]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an Energy Chemicals - Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report by Tonghui Futures, dated December 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Summary Fundamentals - On December 11, the styrene main contract closed up 0.56% at 6,505 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.13% at 5,447 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of Brent crude on December 11 was $58.5/barrel (+$0.2/barrel), WTI crude main contract closed at $62.2/barrel (+$0.3/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [2] - Styrene port inventory was 16.1 tons (-0.3 tons), a 7.5% de - stocking month - on - month, still higher than in previous years. Pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 tons (+6.0 tons), a 36.6% inventory build month - on - month [2] - Styrene production and supply had a slight month - on - month fluctuation. Current weekly styrene output was 34.2 tons (+0.7 tons), and factory capacity utilization was 68.9% (+1.6%) [2] - The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 56.4% (+1.6%), ABS capacity utilization was 68.3% (-2.9%), and PS capacity utilization was 59.0% (+1.4%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: In the short term, domestic pure benzene is under strong real - world pressure. Concentrated arrivals have led to a rapid build - up of port inventory, and the market's perception of supply - side pressure continues to rise. Overseas, the tightest period for gasoline has passed, but the recovery of cracking spreads is still lagging. The spreads in the US, Japan, and South Korea still have room to correct. The market is watching whether South Korean supplies will continue to be diverted to the US. Downstream industries are in the off - season, with weak pick - up. Styrene maintains low - load operation during maintenance; CPL operation has dropped to the lowest level of the year; Phenol operation has rebounded, while aniline and adipic acid continue to fluctuate within a range. Overall, the structure of "accelerated inventory build + weak demand" on the pure benzene side has not improved significantly, and the weak real - world characteristics will continue to dominate the short - term market [2][3] - Styrene: The styrene basis remains firm, but the weak fundamental pattern has not changed. The supply side maintains low - level operation, and port inventory continues to decline; downstream buying interest is okay, but overall inventory - holding enthusiasm is limited in the off - season. The downstream chain still shows a differentiated pattern: EPS operation has slightly rebounded but has a heavy inventory burden; ABS operation continues to decline due to high finished - product inventory; PS operation continues its seasonal rebound, and inventory pressure is relatively relieved. The recent rise in styrene prices has compressed downstream profits, increasing the risk of negative feedback. Looking ahead to December, the output of new plants and the early return of some maintenance plants may limit the extent of de - stocking; at the same time, upstream pure benzene faces the risk of over - inventory, exerting significant pressure on the cost side. Overall, the structure of "weak demand, poor profits, increasing inventory build expectations, and loose supply in the mid - and upstream" of styrene remains unchanged. Against the background of weak crude oil, the price ceiling is restricted, and the subsequent price center may continue to move down [3] Group 3: Industry Data Monitoring Prices | Data Indicator | 2025/12/10 | 2025/12/11 |涨跌幅 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Futures Main Contract) | 6,469.0 | 6,505.0 | 0.56% | | | Styrene (Spot) | 6,770.0 | 6,770.0 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (Futures Main Contract) | 5,440.0 | 5,447.0 | 0.13% | | | Pure Benzene (East China) | 5,310.0 | 5,310.0 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (South Korea FOB) | 663.6 | 660.5 | - 0.47% | | | Pure Benzene (US FOB) | 846.2 | 846.2 | 0.00% | | | Pure Benzene (China CFR) | 668.3 | 666.1 | - 0.32% | | | Pure Benzene Domestic - CFR Spread | - 402.6 | - 379.1 | 5.83% | | | Pure Benzene East China - Shandong Spread | 10.0 | 60.0 | 500.00% | | | Brent Crude | 58.3 | 58.5 | 0.36% | | | WTI Crude | 61.9 | 62.2 | 0.44% | | | Naphtha | 7,066.5 | 7,066.5 | 0.00% | | [5] Production and Inventory | Data Indicator | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 |涨跌幅 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene Production (China) | 33.5 | 34.2 | 2.32% | | | Pure Benzene Production (China) | 44.6 | 43.9 | - 1.70% | | | Styrene Port Inventory (Jiangsu) | 16.4 | 16.1 | - 2.19% | | | Styrene Factory Inventory (Domestic) | 19.0 | 17.6 | - 7.49% | | | Pure Benzene Port Inventory (National) | 16.4 | 22.4 | 36.59% | | [6] Capacity Utilization | Capacity Utilization | 2025/11/28 | 2025/12/05 |涨跌 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Styrene (Pure Benzene Downstream) | 67.3 | 68.9 | 1.56 | | | Caprolactam | 86.7 | 79.2 | - 7.53 | | | Phenol | 81.2 | 81.7 | 0.57 | | | Aniline | 77.2 | 77.2 | 0.04 | | | EPS (Styrene Downstream) | 54.7 | 56.4 | 1.61 | | | ABS | 71.2 | 68.3 | - 2.90 | | | PS | 57.6 | 59.0 | 1.40 | | [7] Group 4: Industry News - Canada provides an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8] - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8] - Fitch lowers its oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027, reflecting market oversupply [8] - Despite US pressure, Venezuela's daily oil exports exceeded 900,000 barrels in November [8] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that there are signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and that interest rate cuts are needed [8] - For the week ending November 28, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 574,000 barrels (previous value: 2.774 million barrels); EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels (previous value: 498,000 barrels) [8] Group 5: Industry Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene prices, styrene prices, styrene - pure benzene spreads, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [13][18][22][28]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Energy Chemicals Pure Benzene & Styrene Daily Report [1] - Date: December 11, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market continues to be weak. Port inventories are rapidly accumulating due to concentrated arrivals, and downstream demand is weak. The contradiction of "high arrival pressure - accelerated inventory accumulation - weak downstream follow - up" is more prominent [2] - Styrene: The port basis of styrene remains relatively strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak. With the approaching of the seasonal inventory accumulation period and the expected oversupply of crude oil, the upside space of styrene prices is limited. The price center is likely to move down [3] Group 4: Day - to - day Market Summary Fundamental Information - Price: On December 10, the main styrene contract closed down 1.63% at 6,469 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 (- 48 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.95% at 5,440 yuan/ton [2] - Cost: On December 10, Brent crude closed at $58.3/barrel (- $0.6/barrel), WTI crude closed at $61.9/barrel (- $0.6/barrel), and the spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,310 yuan/ton (- 45 yuan/ton) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 16.1 tons (- 0.3 tons), a 7.5% month - on - month de - stocking; pure benzene port inventory was 22.4 tons (+ 6.0 tons), a 36.6% month - on - month inventory accumulation [2] - Supply: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 34.2 tons (+ 0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.9% (+ 1.6%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.4% (+ 1.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3% (- 2.9%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0% (+ 1.4%) [2] Views - Pure benzene: The domestic market has a weak reality. Overseas, the most tense period of gasoline has passed, but the lag effect of the previous strong cracking spread is still being repaired. The downstream demand is weak [2] - Styrene: The port basis is strong, but the overall fundamentals are weak. The supply side maintains low - level operation, and the downstream demand in the off - season is limited. The price is under pressure from weak fundamentals and falling crude oil prices [3] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Price Data - Styrene: The main futures contract price decreased by 1.63% to 6,469 yuan/ton; the spot price remained unchanged at 6,770 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 23.53% to 156 yuan/ton [5] - Pure benzene: The main futures contract price decreased by 0.95% to 5,440 yuan/ton; the East China spot price decreased by 0.84% to 5,310 yuan/ton [5] - Upstream: Brent crude decreased by 1.07% to $58.3/barrel; WTI crude decreased by 0.88% to $61.9/barrel; naphtha price remained unchanged at 7,066.5 yuan/ton [5] Production and Inventory Data - Production: Styrene production in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons; pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons [6] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons; styrene factory inventory in China decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 tons; pure benzene port inventory in China increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [6] Capacity Utilization Data - Pure benzene downstream: Styrene capacity utilization increased by 1.56% to 68.9%; caprolactam capacity utilization decreased by 7.53% to 79.2%; phenol capacity utilization increased by 0.57% to 81.7%; aniline capacity utilization remained unchanged at 77.2% [7] - Styrene downstream: EPS capacity utilization increased by 1.51% to 56.4%; ABS capacity utilization decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%; PS capacity utilization increased by 1.10% to 59.0% [7] Group 6: Industry News - Canada provided an additional CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8] - US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [10] - Fitch lowered the oil price forecast from 2025 to 2027, reflecting market oversupply [10] - Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels, despite US pressure [10] - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that some areas of the US economy showed signs of weakness and needed interest rate cuts [10] - US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [10] Group 7: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, etc. [12][14][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - The report provides comprehensive analysis and forecasts for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., and gives corresponding investment suggestions based on market trends and fundamentals [2][8][9] Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: High-level shock market, with cost support from rising crude oil prices and tight supply-demand situation. It's recommended to hold long PX and short BZ. There is a supply contraction expectation in the supply side, and the demand side has a certain gap under the high start - up mode of polyester. Do not chase high in the short term, and go long on dips [4][8] - PTA: High-level shock market, with cost support from PX. Hold long PX and short PTA in the 05 contract, and conduct 5 - 9 positive spreads. Be vigilant about the negative feedback of the industrial chain due to the early holiday of terminals from late December to early January [9] - MEG: Short - term support due to the postponement of the restart plan of Shenghong Refining and Chemical and the unplanned load reduction of multiple units. The price has limited downside space at 3600 yuan/ton. In the medium term, it is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9] Rubber - The rubber market is in a shock operation. As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The short - term price policy of most manufacturers remains stable, and the transaction has flexibility [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in a range operation. As of December 10, 2025, the domestic inventory of butadiene rubber decreased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports also decreased. The market is in a situation of cautious price increase by suppliers and pressure on prices from downstream procurement [14][15][17] Asphalt - The asphalt market has a phased small - scale rebound due to geopolitical fluctuations. The weekly output increased this week, the factory inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [18][28] LLDPE - The LLDPE market shows a unilateral decline, and the basis weakens again. The futures market is under pressure, the upstream sells at a reduced price, and the demand is weak. The supply in the first quarter of 2026 may increase [29][30] PP - The PP market continues to be weak. The cost support is limited, the supply - demand game of existing inventory intensifies, the demand is weak, and the profit of PDH is at a low level. Pay attention to the marginal changes of PDH devices [31][32] Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short in the caustic soda market. The market has a pattern of high output and high inventory, the demand is weak, the supply pressure is large, and the cost has certain support, but the rebound is difficult [34][36] Pulp - The pulp market is in a shock - strengthening trend. The futures market trading volume increased, and the spot market has differentiation. The supply - demand pattern of the pulp and paper system is relatively loose, and it is recommended to pay attention to port inventory changes and futures market capital trends [39][41][43] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The floating glass price has minor fluctuations, the trading atmosphere in most regions is average, the demand is weak, and the supply inventory is high. Some production lines have a plan to stop production [46][47] Methanol - The methanol market is under pressure. The port inventory decreased significantly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. In the medium term, the high supply pressure of the 01 contract is the main contradiction, and the price upside space is limited [50][52] Urea - The urea market is in a shock operation. The enterprise inventory decreased this week, and the demand side has a phased improvement. The price has support from the decrease of explicit inventory, but there is policy pressure above, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern [54][55][57] Styrene - The styrene market is in a short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in the range of 5300 - 5700 yuan/ton in the short term. The downstream inventory pressure of styrene is high, and the supply pressure is not large, and the port inventory is slightly reduced [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changes little. The market trend is stable, the output of enterprises is high, the new orders received are average, and the downstream demand is not so strong [62] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Wide - range shock under the disturbance of the cost side. Pay attention to the changes in CP prices and the start - up rate of related devices [65][70][71] - Propylene: There is an expectation of supply increase, and the upward driving force is limited. The start - up rate of PDH increased compared with the previous week [66] PVC - The PVC market is in a low - level shock. The price is at a historical low, and some devices have a reduction expectation due to large losses. However, in the short term, it still faces the pattern of high start - up and weak demand [74][75] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Continued downward trend, with the center of the disk moving down [77] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Weakened at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [77] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The PA alliance's unexpected performance drives the sentiment to improve. The short - term capital sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market. It is recommended to short the 2604 contract on rallies [79][90] Short Fiber, Bottle Chip - Both short fiber and bottle chip markets face medium - term pressure. It is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies. The futures prices of short fiber and bottle chip are weak, and the spot prices are adjusted down [92][93] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see in the offset printing paper market. The prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the industry start - up level is high, and the market demand is light [95][96][98] Pure Benzene - The pure benzene market is in a short - term shock. The port inventory increased, and the current reality pressure is large. There is an expectation of supply contraction after January 2026, and the demand may improve [100][101]