Group 1 - The report highlights that the net financing scale of government bonds in March is expected to be around 1.20 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 1.42 trillion yuan in February [5][8] - Factors supporting liquidity in March include significant fiscal spending typical of quarter-end and faster government bond supply in January-February compared to the same period in 2025 [5][8] - Potential pressures on liquidity include a surge in the maturity of interbank certificates of deposit amounting to 3.59 trillion yuan, concentrated in the middle two weeks of the month [5][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the preliminary quota for local government bonds in 2026 is gradually being announced, with a total of 2.79 trillion yuan for the early batch in 2025, which is expected to be 3.12 trillion yuan for 2026 based on the 60% rule [5][14] - As of March 8, 2026, the cumulative issuance of local bonds is expected to reach 22.941 billion yuan, with adjustments in March issuance plans leading to a projected scale of 8.541 billion yuan [5][14] - The report notes that the short-term market concerns regarding supply have significantly decreased, and if the new local bond quota announced during the Two Sessions exceeds market expectations, supply concerns may resurface [5][14] Group 3 - The report mentions that the liquidity in the secondary market for short-term bonds (3 years and below) remains good, with the 1-year local bonds showing almost no yield spread compared to government bonds [5][15] - The report identifies key bonds to watch in various maturities, including 5Y, 10Y, 15Y, 20Y, and 30Y local bonds, indicating specific bonds for potential investment [5][16] - The report suggests that the absolute yield level of 30Y local bonds may become attractive if it rises to 2.50% or above [5][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 Two Sessions will focus on economic development and macro - policy frameworks. The government will continue to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to promote high - quality development. The national GDP growth target may be set in the range of 4.5% - 5%, the CPI target is likely to remain around 2%, and the urban survey unemployment rate is expected to stay around 5.5%. The policies in key fields such as real estate, monetary, and fiscal policies will continue to be optimized and adjusted to support economic growth [2][11][12][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Two Sessions: Key Concerns - Topics and Schedules - **Main Topics**: The Government Work Report will cover annual economic development and macro - policy frameworks, including GDP growth targets, fiscal and monetary policy orientations and specific numerical targets, key work and industrial plans for the year. The "15th Five - Year Plan" outline will also be reviewed and passed [5]. - **Important Schedules**: The CPPCC meeting will be held on March 4, 2026, and the NPC meeting will start on March 5. The Government Work Report will be released on the morning of March 5. There will be three press conferences on economy, diplomacy, and people's livelihood, as well as "Representative Channels" and "Minister Channels". The General Secretary's participation in the deliberation of delegations is also an important focus [7][8][9]. 3.2 Main Economic Growth Target Expectations - **GDP Growth**: The national GDP growth target may be set in the range of 4.5% - 5%, slightly lower than the actual 5% in 2025, reflecting a steady and prudent tone [11]. - **CPI Target**: The CPI target is likely to remain around 2%, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, improve corporate profits and tax revenues [12]. - **Urban Survey Unemployment Rate**: It is expected to be set around 5.5%, the same as in 2025, highlighting the priority of stabilizing employment [14]. 3.3 Key Area Policy Orientations - **Monetary Policy**: In 2026, the moderately loose monetary policy will continue. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, with an expected 1 - 2 reserve requirement ratio cuts and 10 - 20 basis points of interest rate cuts. Structural tools are more likely to be implemented, and the central bank will flexibly conduct treasury bond trading operations [16]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy will be more proactive, with a moderate increase in the total amount and optimization of the structure. The narrow - sense deficit rate is expected to remain at 4%, and the total scale of new government debt is expected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, an increase from 2025 [19][20][21]. - **Real Estate Policy**: The real estate policy will continue the recent tone, with a combination of bottom - support and high - quality development. The Two Sessions are expected to continue to stabilize the real estate market through city - specific policies, and focus on urban renewal and the construction of "good houses" [24][25][26]. - **Key Tasks**: The Two Sessions will continue to strongly support domestic demand and science and technology. The government will promote consumption and investment to expand domestic demand, and continue to support new - quality productivity in the field of science and technology [28][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may fluctuate and strengthen, with support mainly coming from institutional investors such as banks, while trading institutions like securities firms and funds may influence the rhythm. The relative change in deposit and loan growth rates determines that institutional investors such as banks are more in need of assets this year, which sets the general direction for the bond market to strengthen. The widening gap between deposit and loan growth rates may continue, leading to the overall directional allocation of bonds by banks and a pattern of loose liquidity. The rhythm of the bond market's recovery depends more on the allocation rhythm of trading institutions. When the positions of trading institutions are low, it is suitable to increase positions; when their positions rise to a high level, it may be considered to reduce positions [6][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market Performance Last Week - The bond market fluctuated last week, with ultra - long bonds performing weakly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 1.5 bps to 1.78%, while the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 2.7 bps to 2.27%. The secondary capital bonds of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - grade had a slight adjustment, rising by 1.2 bps and 3.3 bps respectively. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit yield decreased by 0.5 bps to 1.58% [1][9]. 3.2 Impact of International Conflicts on the Domestic Bond Market - The intensification of international conflicts such as the attack on Iran by the US and Israel may have limited impact on the domestic bond market. On one hand, it may lead to a decline in global risk appetite and drive interest rates down as funds flow into safe - haven assets. On the other hand, it may increase global inflation pressure and push up interest rates. However, there is no clear pattern in the domestic bond market's performance after past wars. The domestic bond market is more affected by the internal economic and monetary environment, and geopolitical conflicts are indirect and non - primary influencing factors. The impact needs to be closely observed [2][10]. 3.3 Domestic Bond Market Structure - The bond market currently shows a pattern where non - bank institutions are cautious and banks are increasing their allocations. The adjustment pressure in the bond market after the Spring Festival mainly comes from non - bank institutions. Non - bank institutions' bond sales are due to subjective caution and the continuous contraction of their scale. In January, the bond fund scale decreased by 41.47 billion shares, a decline of about 4.5%. However, the non - bank positions have reached a relatively low level, and the space for further reduction is limited. Banks are facing a shortage of assets. In recent months, the deposit growth rate has been rising while the loan growth rate has been falling, especially for large banks. This leads to an asset gap, and banks need to increase bond allocations or inter - bank lending to balance the gap, which increases bond demand and supports loose liquidity [3][11]. 3.4 Persistence of Banks' Asset Shortage in the Economic Transformation Period - China is in an economic transformation period, with the slowdown of traditional economies such as infrastructure and real estate and the prosperity of new economies such as information technology and high - end manufacturing. Traditional economies have a much higher financing scale per unit of added value than new economies. For example, the loan - to - added - value ratio of the water conservancy industry is about 20%, while that of the information service industry is only about 0.27 - 0.28%. At the same time, due to the lag in the adjustment of the residents' employment structure, residents' income is under pressure, and their savings inclination increases. This may lead to a continuous slowdown in loan demand and a continuous increase in deposit growth, resulting in a continuous asset gap for banks and an increasing demand for bond allocation [4][14]. 3.5 Government Bond Supply - This year's government bond supply structure is similar to last year's and remains stable. The local bond supply of about 10 - year terms has relatively increased. The supply rhythm is similar to last year, with the net financing of government bonds in the first two months being 2.6 trillion yuan, basically the same as last year. In terms of the term structure, the proportion of local bonds with a term of over 10 years issued since the beginning of this year is 57.6%, lower than 62.5% last year, while the proportion of 10 - year bonds is 28.4%, significantly higher than 20.7% in the same period last year. The proportion of 30 - year bonds is 28.6%, still higher than 24.1% in the same period last year [5][16].

Market Overview - Global assets experienced significant volatility due to rising risk aversion, with gold and silver prices increasing by 3.35% and 11.76% respectively last week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 11 basis points to 3.97%, while European bond yields also declined significantly[3] - U.S. stock markets saw a collective drop in major indices, contrasting with gains in Japanese and European markets[3] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. January PPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.6%, driven primarily by rising service prices[13] - Fed Governor Milan reiterated the need for a 100 basis point rate cut in 2026, complicating the monetary policy outlook due to inflationary pressures[7] Japanese Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan's Governor indicated a careful review of data in March and April to decide on potential interest rate hikes, with February's core CPI at 1.8%[8] - The Nikkei 225 index surged by 3.56%, leading global stock market performance[3] Bond Market Trends - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 11 basis points to 3.97%, with foreign holdings of U.S. debt dropping by $88.4 billion to $9.27 trillion[33] - The 10-year UK bond yield fell by 23 basis points to 4.24%, while German and French yields also saw declines of 5 basis points and 8.4 basis points respectively[40] Commodity Prices - Spot gold prices reached $5,222, marking a 3.35% increase, while silver prices rose to $90, up 11.76%[5] - WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.22% to $67, reflecting a year-to-date rise of 17.39%[5]

Economic Data and Events - In the past week, US housing prices remained flat, while consumer confidence and inflation exceeded expectations. The S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index showed a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, aligning with expectations and previous values. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for February was reported at 91.2, significantly above the expected 87 and previous value of 89. The January PPI year-on-year was 2.9%, better than the expected 2.6% but lower than the previous 3% [11][12]. - In the Eurozone, economic sentiment was below expectations, with the February Economic Sentiment Index at 98.3, lower than the expected 99.8 and previous value of 99.3 [11]. - Japan's retail sales and inflation also exceeded expectations, with January retail sales up 1.8% year-on-year, compared to an expected 0.1% and a previous value of -0.9%. The Tokyo Core CPI for February was reported at 1.8%, above the expected 1.7% and previous value of 2% [11]. Weekly Economic Activity Index - The US Economic Activity Index (WEI) showed an upward trend, with a value of 2.65% for the week ending February 21, compared to 2.89% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 2.6% [15]. - The German Economic Activity Index (WAI) remained stable at 0.05% for the week ending February 22, with a four-week moving average of 0.05% [15]. Demand - The US Redbook Commercial Retail Sales growth rate showed a marginal decline, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% for the week ending February 20, down from 7.2% the previous week. The four-week moving average was 6.78% [19]. - In the real estate sector, US mortgage rates decreased, with the 30-year mortgage rate at 5.98% as of February 26, down from 6.01% the previous week. Mortgage application numbers showed a slight increase, with the MBA Market Composite Index at 340.2, reflecting a 0.4% week-on-week change [21]. Employment - Initial jobless claims and continuing claims for unemployment benefits were better than expected. Initial claims rose to 212,000 for the week ending February 26, compared to an expected 215,000 and a previous value of 208,000. Continuing claims decreased from 1.864 million to 1.833 million, against an expected 1.858 million [26]. - The number of job vacancies remained stable, with the Indeed Job Vacancy Index at 104.47 as of February 20, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.45% [30]. Prices - Commodity prices rebounded, with the RJ/CRB Commodity Price Index showing a week-on-week increase of 0.5% as of February 27. US gasoline prices continued to rise, reported at $2.80 per gallon for the week ending February 23, reflecting a week-on-week increase of approximately 0.2% [33]. Financial Conditions - Financial conditions in the US and Europe showed marginal deterioration. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index for the US was reported at 0.504 on February 27, down from 0.61 the previous day and 0.648 the week before. The Eurozone index also declined to 1.528 from 1.594 the previous week [37]. - Offshore dollar liquidity showed marginal deterioration, with the euro to dollar three-month swap basis significantly declining to 0.38 basis points from 2.38 basis points the previous week [39]. - The spread-to-worst for high-yield dollar bonds surged to 284.0 basis points on February 27, widening from 271.8 basis points the previous day and 262.1 basis points the week before [40]. - The US-Japan yield spread narrowed to 185.2 basis points as of February 26, while the US-Europe spread remained stable at 127.3 basis points. The Italian-German yield spread continued to narrow, reported at 58.9 basis points [45]. Fiscal Data - As of February 26, cumulative federal spending in the US was approximately $1.3 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%. This compares to $1.2 trillion in the same period last year, which had a growth rate of 8.1% [50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of the global financial landscape driven by the rise of stablecoins, the challenges faced by traditional financial systems, and the implications for individual wealth management in the digital age [2][21]. Group 1: Traditional Financial System Cracks - The current global financial market, despite its apparent prosperity, is experiencing significant underlying issues, highlighted by the surge in gold prices as a reflection of declining trust in existing monetary systems [4]. - The inefficiencies of the SWIFT system and the inflationary pressures on the US dollar are leading to a growing trend of "de-dollarization" among nations [4][5]. - The emergence of cryptocurrencies aimed to disrupt traditional finance but faced challenges such as volatility and operational limitations, paving the way for the rise of stablecoins [4][5]. Group 2: The Stablecoin Landscape - Stablecoins are not a monolithic entity; they represent a complex interplay of power dynamics, including centralization versus decentralization, and the competition between issuers and regulatory bodies [6][7]. - Different types of stablecoins, such as fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC) and crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), exhibit varying degrees of stability and risk, with concerns over transparency and regulatory compliance [7][8]. - The competition among stablecoin issuers and the regulatory landscape is crucial for understanding the future of digital currencies and their role in the financial system [8]. Group 3: Impact on Global Financial Order - The growing scale of stablecoins is challenging sovereign currencies and reshaping global financial infrastructure, affecting every country and individual [10][11]. - Stablecoins are emerging as alternatives for smaller nations facing economic instability, while major economies like the US and China are navigating their own digital currency strategies [11][12]. - The rise of decentralized finance (DeFi) is heavily reliant on stablecoins, which serve as essential components for various financial services, although they also introduce new risks reminiscent of past financial crises [12]. Group 4: Opportunities and Risks for Individuals - The new monetary war presents both unprecedented wealth opportunities and significant financial risks for ordinary individuals, driven by market volatility and the emergence of stablecoins [14][15]. - The book provides a guide for individuals to identify arbitrage opportunities and understand the potential of stablecoins as a hedge against inflation [15]. - However, the digital financial landscape also harbors risks such as money laundering and fraud, necessitating awareness and understanding of the underlying rules to protect assets [15]. Group 5: Future of CBDC and Stablecoins - The competition between stablecoins and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) will shape the future of the monetary landscape, with implications for global financial power dynamics [17][18]. - The book outlines three potential scenarios for the future of digital currencies, emphasizing the importance of technological integration and regulatory frameworks [18][19]. - The ultimate question remains: who holds the power to issue credit, a theme that has evolved with the advent of stablecoins and their role in the digital currency era [19].

Domestic Economic Developments - The LPR remains unchanged for the ninth consecutive month, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%[8] - The government emphasizes "releasing silver-haired consumption demand" as a key strategy to address aging population challenges, indicating a shift towards viewing the elderly as a vital consumer group[10] - Shanghai's new real estate policy aims to stabilize the market by relaxing purchase restrictions and enhancing loan limits, with the maximum loan for first-time buyers increased from 1.6 million to 2.4 million yuan[12] International Economic Trends - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates reached new highs since April 2023, driven by a weak USD and increased corporate demand for currency exchange[20] - Japan's CPI for February shows a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, falling below the Bank of Japan's 2% target, primarily due to government subsidies and a slowdown in food cost growth[22] Market Data Insights - Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.27% week-on-week, while iron ore prices decreased by 1.86%[24] - The average price of domestic polysilicon dropped by 4.65%, and lithium carbonate prices fell by 5.94% week-on-week[24] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central bank is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with potential for targeted rate cuts to support the real estate market and economic stability[9] - The upcoming political meetings are set to finalize the "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on structural optimization and efficiency improvements in the economy[14]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index experienced fluctuations, closing at 26,630.54, up 0.95% on the last trading day of February, but down 2.76% for the month [3] - The index has fallen below key moving averages, indicating potential pressure due to geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S.-Iran situation [3] - The trading volume for the day was 288.4 billion HKD, reflecting active market participation despite the overall monthly decline [3] Group 2: Company Performance - China Everbright Water reported a 17.37% decline in annual profit to 842 million HKD, with revenue decreasing by 21.85% to 5.355 billion HKD [11] - The company aims to leverage opportunities in the environmental sector and focus on high-quality development amid China's 14th Five-Year Plan [11] - Baidu's adjusted profit fell by 42%, with its stock price showing volatility, while other tech stocks like Tencent and JD.com had mixed performances [4] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - IDC forecasts a 12.9% decline in global smartphone shipments for the year, marking the largest drop in history, driven by memory chip shortages [9] - The report anticipates that smartphone sales will decrease by 0.5% this year, with a slight recovery expected in 2024 [9] - The ongoing challenges in chip supply are expected to persist, affecting pricing and availability in the second half of the year [9] Group 4: Financial Developments - Bank of China Hong Kong successfully assisted the Indonesian government in issuing offshore RMB and Euro-denominated bonds, totaling approximately 31.1 billion RMB [12][13] - The bond issuance attracted significant interest, with order values reaching 170.4 billion RMB and 94.8 billion Euro, indicating strong market confidence [13] - This issuance is part of a broader strategy to enhance Hong Kong's offshore bond market and facilitate international financing for Indonesia [13]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. and Israel launched a joint strike against Iran on February 28, marking a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict[8] - Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military positions in the Gulf region and announced a ban on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz[8] - The geopolitical tensions have led to a notable increase in risk premiums for gold and oil, with gold prices surpassing $5,250 per ounce and Brent crude oil prices exceeding $73 per barrel[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4% month-on-month in January, exceeding market expectations of 0.3%, and increased by 2.9% year-on-year against an expected 2.6%[17] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 23 were 190,000, aligning with seasonal expectations, but continued claims remain high, indicating a "low hiring, low firing" environment[16] - The 30-year mortgage rate has fallen below 6%, creating favorable conditions for consumer credit expansion[11] Group 3: Market Expectations - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, although the timing has been pushed back, with a 45.9% probability for a cut in June[13] - Federal Reserve officials exhibit significant internal disagreement regarding the timing and necessity of rate cuts, with some cautioning against premature easing[11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has intensified, impacting the Middle - East financial market and potentially causing significant fluctuations in the global financial market, including stocks, bonds, and oil prices [2][10][12] - The market's attitude towards bonds has changed due to various expected differences, such as the impact of the new economy led by AI on the traditional economy, inflation judgment, and better - than - expected bond supply - demand relationship [25] - In the short term, the A - share market is risk - controllable, and the tense Middle - East situation may bring investment opportunities to some sectors [26] Summary by Directory Macro Data Overview - In December 2025, GDP growth at constant prices was 4.5% year - on - year, down from 4.8% in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period of the previous year [1] - In January 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, up slightly from 49.0% in the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 49.4%, down from 50.1% in the previous month [1] - In January 2026, the monthly value of social financing was 7220.8 billion yuan, a significant increase from 817.8 billion yuan in the previous month [1] - In January 2026, CPI was 0.2% year - on - year, the same as the previous month, and PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.1% in the previous month [1] Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - After the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran escalated, causing the Iranian stock market to halt trading and leading to declines in Saudi and Egyptian stock indices [2] - Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has stopped, and major shipping companies have avoided the Persian Gulf [2] - Barclays Bank predicts that Brent crude prices could reach $100 per barrel, with a 35% upside [3] - The Dominican Republic may become a major supplier of rare earth minerals [3] Metals - On February 27, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1160 yuan to 171,900 yuan per ton, while the price of lithium hydroxide decreased by 490 yuan to 162,600 yuan per ton [4] - Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry adjusted the prices of its cemented carbide products on March 1 [5] Energy and Chemicals - Due to the deteriorating security situation in the Middle - East, the IMX container shipping route has been redirected via the Cape of Good Hope [6] - OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April [6] - India plans to cut coal imports for power plants by at least 30% in 2026 [6] Agricultural Products - Indonesia raised the export tariff on crude palm oil to 12.5% starting from March 1 [7] Financial News Compilation Open Market - Last week, the central bank's open market had a net withdrawal of 611.4 billion yuan, and this week, 1525 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [8] - On February 28, the central bank conducted 116 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 116 billion yuan on that day [9] Key News - The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has intensified, and China has expressed its stance of opposing military actions and promoting dialogue [10][11] - Analysts predict that the military action may cause the global stock market to decline by 1% - 2% next Monday, the US Treasury yield to drop by 5 - 10 basis points, and oil prices to rise by 5% - 10% [12] - In 2025, China's GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase year - on - year [12] - The 4th session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026 [13] Bond Market Summary - On Saturday, due to the escalation of the conflict, the yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds declined by 1 - 2 basis points, and trading activity increased [20] - On Saturday, most money - market interest rates showed an upward trend, while short - term Shibor rates mostly declined, and inter - bank repurchase fixed - term rates and inter - bank repurchase rates among banks were mostly down [21][22] Foreign Exchange Market Express - On Friday, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.8559, down 162 basis points from the previous trading day [23] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that three key signals will determine the impact on the global market [24] - CICC Fixed Income states that the market's attitude towards bonds has changed due to expected differences [25] - Shenwan Fixed Income suggests that the downward space of certificate of deposit rates may be limited, and the downward space of long - term bond yields may narrow [26] - Everbright Fixed Income believes that the A - share market is stable in the long - term and risk - controllable in the short - term, and the Middle - East situation may bring investment opportunities [26] Today's Reminders - On March 2, 85 bonds will be listed, 114 bonds will be issued, 49 bonds will make payments, and 414 bonds will repay principal and interest [27][28] Stock Market Key News - In the first two months of this year, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 6.86%, but southbound funds continued to flow in, with Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan being the top net - bought stocks in the past 20 trading days [29]