Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices is driven by improved trade relations between two countries and a sharp recovery in coking coal prices, which has exceeded market expectations. The sustainability of this price increase needs to be evaluated based on marginal changes in the market [1]. Group 1: Mongolian Coal Supply Changes - The dismissal of Mongolia's Prime Minister has raised concerns about potential changes in coal export policies, with some market participants anticipating a 20% increase in coal export resource tax [2]. - Currently, there are no adjustments to Mongolia's coal policies, but the supply of Mongolian coal is expected to decrease due to the high cost of coal and recent price drops [2][4]. Group 2: Domestic Coking Coal Supply - Domestic coking coal supply remains high, but there has been a slight reduction in production due to some major mines cutting output and minor private mines reducing production due to losses [5][6]. - The average profitability of coking coal mines is under pressure, with some mines nearing breakeven points, indicating that significant supply reductions may require further price declines [6][8]. Group 3: Demand Observations - Despite concerns about seasonal declines in steel demand, iron output remains high at around 2.4 million tons per day, supporting strong procurement of raw materials [9][10]. - The price of thermal coal has stabilized around 619 RMB/ton, with significant year-to-date declines, which may provide some support for coking coal valuations as the consumption season approaches [11]. Group 4: Coking Coal Market Summary - The overall trend indicates that while demand for coking coal may have peaked, supply reductions are marginal and primarily driven by low valuations. The recent price surge is seen as a correction rather than a reversal signal [12].

以下文章来源于巴顿比格斯 ，作者巴顿比格斯 巴顿比格斯 . 历史不会重复，但是它自然成韵。 文 | 巴顿比格斯 来源 | 巴顿比格斯 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 近期沪银期货价格创上市以来新高，国际白银ETF连续增仓的情况下，欧美降息预期抬升、叠加宏观市场情绪转暖预期提振白银工业 属性，沪银表现强于黄金、金银比小幅修复。 此前黄金屡创新高，白银被低估，金银比一度逼近105（历史均值60-80），随着避险情绪升温，白银成为"价值洼地"，资金涌入推动 其补涨，金银比回落至90。全球最大白银ETF持仓量持续增加，CFTC（美国商品期货交易委员会）净多头持仓攀升，显示出资金对 白银强烈的看涨情绪。 2025年全球货币体系发生深刻变化，美元霸权遭遇挑战。特朗普政府的一系列政策，如强推制造业回流、关税壁垒等，导致全球美元 回流美国，美元流动性减少，且面临 "特里芬难题" 升级版，即美联储在加息抑制通胀与降息刺激经济维持贸易逆差之间两难抉择， 这削弱了美元信用。 投资者对美元信心下降，转而寻求其他避险资产，白银作为传统的避险资产之一，受到投资者青睐。全球政治经济不确定性增加，如 地缘政治冲突、贸易政策不稳定等， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the United States, suggesting it is in the "fifth stage" of a cycle that could lead to internal conflict or civil war, emphasizing the importance of recognizing and addressing underlying issues before they escalate [1][3][8]. Summary by Sections Current Situation - The article highlights the increasing unrest in Los Angeles and the government's response, including the deployment of the National Guard, as indicative of deeper systemic issues [2][3]. - It emphasizes that the U.S. is at a critical juncture, where financial deterioration is leading to class conflict, marking the "pre-civil war" phase [3][4]. Key Principles - The article outlines that successful nations adapt and self-repair during cycles, and the key question is how much pressure the current system can withstand without collapsing [3][4]. - It warns that the late fifth stage often leads to violent conflict, transitioning into the sixth stage, which is characterized as the "civil war phase" [3][4]. Toxic Combinations - The article identifies a "toxic combination" of factors that can lead to significant internal conflict, including financial distress, social inequality, and severe economic shocks [10][12]. - It notes that these factors often coexist and exacerbate each other, increasing the likelihood of severe conflict [10][12]. Historical Context - The author draws on historical patterns, suggesting that the current dynamics mirror past cycles of civil unrest and revolution, where financial instability and social division were prevalent [7][8][9]. - The article stresses that the loss of credibility in traditional and social media has reached unprecedented levels, further complicating the public's ability to discern truth [25][26]. Solutions and Leadership - The article advocates for strong, peaceful reformers who can unite society and implement effective reforms to avoid catastrophic collapse [5][34]. - It emphasizes the need for leaders who can bridge divides and promote equitable wealth distribution to maintain social cohesion [5][34]. Conclusion - The article concludes that understanding the current phase in the cycle is crucial for navigating potential crises, and that proactive measures are necessary to foster a more equitable and stable society [46][47].

Group 1 - The market sentiment was initially "risk on" due to a call between the highest leaders of China and the US, leading to a price rebound, but concerns over economic growth resurfaced after the non-farm payroll data, causing prices to retreat [1][3]. - Gold prices experienced fluctuations while silver saw a significant increase, with COMEX gold rising by 0.54% and silver by 9.24% last week [2][20]. - The COMEX copper price showed a rebound from Monday to Thursday, peaking on Thursday before a pullback on Friday, influenced by concerns over increased tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][5]. Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict supported precious metal prices, while the call between the US and China leaders eased macroeconomic sentiment, boosting market risk appetite [4][20]. - Following the release of non-farm payroll data that exceeded market expectations but had a significant downward revision of previous values, concerns about the US economy led to a rise in US Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices [4][20]. - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, indicating a contango structure, with copper inventories nearing 200,000 tons, suggesting potential for further accumulation in US copper stocks [5][6]. Group 3 - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was stable, with trade prices for clean copper concentrate remaining in a narrow range, indicating limited market activity [7]. - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased, reflecting a rise in imports and limited downstream consumption, with expectations of a decrease in inventory in the coming week [13][10]. - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods mostly declined, with a notable drop in East China, while the market for recycled copper rods showed signs of recovery [16]. Group 4 - The gold and silver markets showed divergence, with silver's gains outpacing gold's, leading to a significant drop in the gold-silver ratio [22]. - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 670,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 1,290,000 ounces, indicating a tightening supply in the precious metals market [36][41]. - The SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 4 tons to 934 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 406 tons to 14,709 tons, reflecting increased investor interest in precious metals [41].

以下文章来源于CFC金属研究 ，作者王贤伟 CFC金属研究 . 本平台由金融业内人士对宏观数据、行业事件，进行专业的解读和评论，分享专业的价值观点，提出专业的投资策略，力争为普通投资者、产业人士打造 专业的投资交流平台，并无偿提供分析与研究服务。 文 | 王贤伟 来源 | CFC金属研究 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 铸造铝合金期货上市后主要关注点包括： 1）期货交割量级不确定性较大；2）供需数据难以追踪；3）废铝紧缺难以证实或证伪； 本 文将铸造铝合金主要研究指标整理汇总以供参考。 复盘2007年以来两类铝价，ADC12价格与A00关联程度较高，而ADC12弹性和波动率不及A00，整体表现为下跌周期中ADC12更为抗 跌，而上涨周期则由A00领涨；同时两类铝价基本呈现3年一个完整的涨跌幅周期，目前正处于2023年启动的周期末端。 我们根据铝行业上下游库存周期判断， 25年下半年则将逐步迈入主动去库+被动去库的组合，恰逢偏弱的价格交叉周期。 铸造铝合金现货市场参考的主流报价平台有三个，由低至高依次是江西保太、上海钢联（相差100-200）及上海有色（相差500- 700），因此最便宜交割品需要 ...

期货交易者的紧密合作伙伴！ 文 | 张晨 来源 | 一德菁英汇 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 要点速览 上周四（6月5日）欧市、美市时段，内外盘期银大幅拉涨， 分别突破了2024年年内高点，续 创本轮上涨以来新高。与之相对应的是，金价表现相对低迷， 近几日反而出现冲高回落的震 荡走势，这使得金银比价加速向下回归，符合我们在此前《"脱缰"的金银比价修复空间几何》 专题报告中关于"一旦经贸摩擦边际缓和，引发比价以黄金相对白银补跌（亦即白银相对黄金 补涨）的方式进行修正"的假设条件与结论。 一德菁英汇 . 以下文章来源于一德菁英汇 ，作者一德菁菁 资料来源：wind，CME，一德宏观战略部 梳理本轮白银加速拉升，并非宏观基本面出现了显著利多变化，资金聚焦金银比价回归应为主 因。 此前我们曾对金银比大幅修正对应的基本面限定条件进行梳理，即对应10年期美债盈亏 平衡通胀率（通胀预期）达成出清后的修复，上述修复对应的宏观背景通常为一轮危机后，美 短期经贸摩擦缓和情绪难改逆全球化/美元信用弱化趋势，金银比价中枢上移概率大； 短期金银比价修正目标指向87-92区间，完结后回归基本面驱动； 白银创新高打开金价上行空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the market, highlighting a lack of confidence in macroeconomic recovery and the ongoing challenges posed by external shocks, particularly in the context of U.S.-China trade relations and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic changes are minimal, with no systemic confidence being rebuilt. The average tariff between the U.S. and China is expected to remain high, around 30%-40% [4]. - U.S. debt pressure and fiscal constraints are weakening the strength of the U.S. economy, leading to a decline in the "American exceptionalism" narrative [5]. - The market is experiencing a price stagnation where prices remain the same but purchasing power is diminishing, creating a poor trading experience [3]. Group 2: Commodity Prices and Market Dynamics - Commodity prices are low enough that the market does not anticipate immediate negative shocks comparable to the lows seen in early April [5]. - Certain commodities, such as glass and rubber, have fallen below their early April lows, indicating a return to previous pricing levels [5]. - Oil and coal are seen as leading indicators for commodity prices, with geopolitical issues potentially driving oil prices higher despite recent market corrections [5][7]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Recent attacks on Russian airports by Ukraine indicate a shift in military dynamics, suggesting that Ukraine may have opportunities to challenge Russian dominance [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts are likely to create long-term threats to energy exports, particularly oil [6]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current U.S. retail inventory levels are increasing, suggesting that demand may be overstretched, with inventory growth at 5% while sales growth is only at 4% [6]. - The supply growth rate is currently double that of demand growth, indicating a trend towards oversupply, which will pressure PPI recovery [8]. Group 5: Investment Considerations - The article raises questions about the potential for market recovery in a long-term weak economic environment, emphasizing the need for systematic thinking regarding investment strategies [9]. - There are structural contradictions in trading, with some sectors appearing overvalued while others, like the photovoltaic and black industrial chains, may offer valuation recovery opportunities [9].

以下文章来源于川阅全球宏观 ，作者邵翔 川阅全球宏观 . 卖方宏观研究，舞动漫天彩绸固然是一种本事，剪取庭前小枝也需要视角与功底。 文 | 邵翔 来源 | 川阅全球宏观 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 突然的通话，突然的缓和？ 周四晚习主席应约同美国总统特朗普通电话，开始和结果与5月初的瑞士会晤十分相似：开始的比较突然，而结果也比市场预 期得要好。整个谈话历时约1个小时半小时，与习主席和前总统拜登通话的最短时长持平，而今年1月中美领导人的通话时间可能不到1小时。 我们认为这次通话将成为一次重要的分水岭。 中美之间将正式开启贸易谈判，但依旧不会是接下来一个月内美国贸易谈判的重点；"以时 间换空间"，日本、韩国、印度、越南、甚至欧盟的谈判优先级还是会更高；而更重要的是中美竞争的形式将发生变化，从针尖麦芒式的关 税战，变为更加比拼"暗劲"的基本面和供应链的限制与反限制。同时值得注意的是，这次通话主要内容在经贸，而少有涉及地缘政治，这 是未来两国绕不过去的话题。 实际上，有了"前车之鉴"，本次中美领导人通话前的"信号"铺垫已经比较明显。一方面，除了美国官员如哈塞特、贝森特持续透露两国领 导人接触的想法；此外， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the bleak demand outlook for global oil, highlighting the challenges faced by OPEC+ in managing production and the implications for oil prices and market dynamics [12][10]. Group 1: Oil Demand Forecast - Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 according to OPEC, while the IEA forecasts a more conservative increase of 0.7 million b/d [12]. - The total world oil demand for 2026 is estimated at 106.28 million b/d, reflecting a growth of 1.22% compared to 2025 [8]. Group 2: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ has lost some influence over the oil market and is seeking to regain control, particularly in response to non-OPEC+ producers like the U.S. [12]. - The article notes that OPEC+ plans to increase production by 410,000 b/d in July, maintaining the same increase as in previous months, indicating a strategy to recover market share [19]. Group 3: Supply Dynamics - The article highlights significant increases in oil exports from countries like Iran, Kuwait, and the UAE, although the growth rate is showing signs of slowing down [14]. - Iran's production is currently stable at 3.3 to 3.4 million b/d, with potential increases if a deal with the U.S. is reached [14]. Group 4: U.S. Oil Market Insights - U.S. shale oil production is facing a bottleneck, with active drilling rigs at their lowest since January, and profitability hinges on WTI prices remaining above $61 per barrel [19]. - The article indicates that U.S. oil production is currently at 13.401 million b/d, with a slight increase of 0.07% from the previous week [59]. Group 5: Global Oil Inventory Trends - The seasonal inventory build-up period is expected between April and June, with significant increases anticipated due to the lifting of production cuts [28]. - The article suggests that the absolute peak of global oil inventory typically occurs between May and June, which could lead to a critical test for oil prices in the coming months [28]. Group 6: Geopolitical Risks - The article mentions that geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Ukraine conflict, could further complicate the energy supply landscape and impact global oil prices [65].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the coal and coke market, highlighting supply surplus as a fundamental issue and a recent rebound in prices due to improved market sentiment after a period of decline [4][6]. Market Analysis - The primary reason for the recent price decline is the significant oversupply of coal, with a notable drop in prices since March, where the price of coal fell over 180 points and the price of imported coal dropped by approximately 140 yuan/ton [6][7]. - A rebound in coal prices was observed post-holiday, with coking coal prices increasing by over 7% as of June 4, indicating a temporary recovery after a sharp decline [6][8]. Spot Market - The spot market for coking coal has not shown significant recovery, with recent auctions in Shanxi resulting in price declines or unsold lots, and the price of raw coal at the Mengxi port around 717 yuan/ton [6][7]. - Downstream steel mills and coking enterprises have reduced their inventories, leading to a significant accumulation of coal inventory upstream, reaching near historical highs [7]. Profit Situation - Profit pressures are evident, particularly for high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal, which are nearing cash flow costs, indicating potential marginal production cuts in the near future [7][8]. - The production capacity of high-sulfur lean coal and weak caking coal in Shanxi is around 20 million tons, and any reduction in supply could provide short-term support for the market [7]. Future Outlook - The third quarter is traditionally a slow season for steel demand, with expectations of a decline in coal and coke demand as well [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic sentiment and potential changes in coal policies for future market developments [8].